Coldwell Banker
2020 Real Estate Market Report
Activity January – Mid August 2020
How busy is the local real estate market?
Record shattering . . .
The last 3 months has been the busiest period the Tahoe Truckee real estate market has ever seen. In mid May activity surged and hasn’t showed any signs of slowing down. Activity has blown by what we saw in our busiest months last year.
190 Residences went into contract in May of 2020
(compared to 110 in May 2019)
318 Residences went into contract in June of 2020
(compared to 125 in June 2019)
298 Residences went into contract in July
(compared to 150 in July 2019)
189 Residences have gone
into contract in the first 19 days of August
Our 2 busiest months last year?
170 residences went into contract in August 2019
170 residences went into contract in September 2019
Closed sales in July blew past the previous record for the Tahoe Sierra MLS. 292 residences sold in the primary market areas (Emerald Bay to Crystal Bay, Squaw, Alpine, Northstar, Truckee, and Donner Summit). The previous record for a single month was 182 sales in August 2017. That’s a 60% increase over the past busiest month!!
The 292 July sales were 214% of the ten year average for the month (136) and 233% of the sales in July 2019 (125).
Year to Date (January through July) 850 residences have sold. That is a 30% increase over the same period last year (656 sales) and brings us to 123% of the ten year average for the period (691 residences). For perspective, at the end of May, we were at 86% of the ten year average for closed sales YTD.
Active Residential Inventory:
Active Listings: It is typical to see the number of listings peak in early July and then hold steady through Labor Day. While the number of new listings is in line with what we typically see in May, June, and July, the massive amount of new contracts is dropping the active inventory. There are currently just 283 residences actively for sale, down from 382 residences two months ago. Last year at this time, there were 650 residences for sale. So, despite a comparable number of homes coming on the market, our active inventory is about 44% of what it was a year ago (and typically is at this time of year).
Current Pending Sales: 390 residences are in contract as of August 19. 298 residences went into contract in July. Compare that to the 283 residences actively for sale, and we have less than a one month supply of inventory actively on the market!! Remember that three months ago, we were at a 12 month supply relative to the previous 30 days of activity? What a turnaround.
Coldwell Banker Ranks #1: Among all brokerages in North Lake Tahoe and Truckee, Coldwell Banker continues to rank #1 in the total number of sales. For the previous 12 months, Coldwell Banker represented 15.6% of sales. This represents 53% more transactions than our next closest competitor (10.2% of sales).
Median and Average Sales Prices: These numbers are changing dramatically. For the period January through June, the median sales price was $674,500 (up slightly from $669,000 last year), and the average sales price was $986,430 (up slightly from $975,296 last year). For June, the median sales price was $706,875, and the average was $987,193. For July, the median was $803,500, and the average was $1,190,617.
The median price for single family homes jumped from $691,500 in May to $803,500 in July. The average has jumped from $948,211 to $1,341,787 over the same period. Looking at pending sales and early August closings, these numbers are looking to increase even further with a median asking price of $895,000 and an average asking price of $1,360,829. We also know that many of the homes under contract are going to close at numbers significantly higher than the asking price.
Sales Under $500,000: For the period January through July, residences priced under $500,000 represented just over 22% of sales or 189 properties sold. Of those sales, 103 were condos. For the same period in 2019, there were 189 properties sold in this price range, 120 of which were condos.
Mid-Range Market Sales $500,000 to $999,999: For the same period, there were 425 sales between $500,000 and $999,999, representing 50% of total sales. 44 of the sales were condos. For the same period in 2019, there were 315 sales, including 39 condos.
Luxury Home Sales Over $1 Million: 236 properties have sold over $1 million, representing 28% of total sales, up 55% from the 152 sales in the same period in 2019.
REO & Short Sales: Distressed sales have been scarce in the last few years. So far this year, there have been just three foreclosure sales.
What’s Going On Looking Forward?
What a wild environment, it was just three months ago that much of our real estate community was laying off employees and scrambling for loans to maintain operating costs. Now, we’re shattering records. We just completed the busiest three month period our real estate market has seen, and that occurred in months that aren’t typically busy in our “normal” market cycles.
What happens now? Does it get busier, like it typically does in August, September, and October? Or, is the pace too strong to maintain? The supply side is going to have a lot to say about that. As you read above, our inventory of homes for sale is just 44% of what it usually is at this time of year. Add in the fact that inventory typically begins to tail off after Labor Day. We will need an abnormally high amount of new inventory, for the time of year, to maintain the number of sales. From what we can see right now, demand is either sustaining or getting more robust. So, whatever inventory there is will continue to get gobbled up, and prices will continue to rise (maybe even faster if inventory gets tighter).
While we wait for a vaccine, as long as COVID cases
continue to rise and remote work /distance learning
continue, we anticipate our current market
dynamics will also remain in place.
