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The deeper the rout goes, the longer it takes to resolve. In today’s global rice market, there are no winners or losers; all producers around the world are losing. Industries around the globe continue to function, but the actual dollar flow running through the system is anemic compared to years past. Prices in the U.S. and around the world are reaching decades-low records, and there isn’t any imminent market factor on the horizon that is likely to change the short-term trajectory. As terrible as it is to read this, it’s important to realize that the pain is happening around the globe, not just here in the United States.
With no USDA data to report, anecdotal information will suffice in the gap. The good news is domestic milling remains steady. However, milled exports are becoming increasingly reliant on Iraq business, and while there is no reason to believe they will walk back on their procurements, the Iraqi government has yet to approve food basket purchases for their 2026 marketing year. Paddy rice sales are also slow in the face of both a large carryover, and intrusion from South American suppliers into our traditional markets.
Looking ahead to the 2026 planting season, the question is not the number of acres but who will plant rice as reports of bankruptcy continue. Fertilizer price increases, higher equipment service costs, and the lack of labor in all areas of agriculture pressure farmers everywhere while farm prices are far below the cost of production. Market price outlook will determine 2026. The cloud that hovers over the market is the competition from India, Thailand, and Vietnam that presents unfair challenges.
Like salt on a wound, the delphacid crisis continues to plague growers — not solely because of the pest itself, but because the stress it inflicts on the plant is now believed to trigger panicle blight as a secondary consequence. The jury is still out on it being an “official” cause of the blight, but it’s appearing highly likely. Reports of an enormous yield loss on the second crop in Texas are coming in, as well as delphacid now being found on some Bermuda grass as well. There has been more damage in north Louisiana than south Louisiana, but the upcoming ratoon crop is of utmost concern.
In Asia, prices are bouncing around historic lows with significant oversupply and scant procurements from huge buyers like the Philippines and Indonesia. Destinations like West Africa only have so much storage and therefore can’t “stock up” on excessive supplies to take advantage of the moment. Instead, the cycle of recovery is lengthening as production remains high, and demand sideways. Prices in Thailand are as low as $335 pmt, Vietnam $370 pmt, and India at $370 pmt.
The Western Hemisphere isn’t fairing much better when the cost of production and lack of subsidies are taken into account. U.S. long grain is now quoted $580 pmt, with Brazil at $525 pmt, Argentina at $470 pmt, and Uruguay at $490 pmt. Paddy, when there’s demand for it, is now quoted somewhere around $270 pmt FOB NOLA — a dismal number indeed. Ultimately, cash sales are very hard to find right now, and when one does surface, it’s usually at a price most producers are unwilling to accept.
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