Monthly Market Update
November 2, 2017
Presented By:  Todd Day, Portfolio Manager

Click on the Arrow Below
Hear Todd's Recap of October 


October - A Bear Market?

Despite October's dubious honor of being the most volatile month of the year, the only thing that crashed in October was volatility.  The average daily change (absolute value) for the S&P 500 in October '17 was only 0.25%.   That was the least volatile October since 1968. 

The S&P 500 had 11 new highs in October, that's the most in October in history.  In the 2000's decade, the S&P 500 made 13 new highs; we've had more than 20 since September. 

Dow and S&P 500 have had 7 straight months of gains.  Had it not been for a down March, we would be looking at 12 straight months of gains for the S&P 500.  The tech heavy NASDAQ also had a strong month. 
It wasn't just here in the U.S. - we saw record highs in South Korea, India, Germany, Sweden and Japan. 

Here at home - earnings, politics, tax reform and the next FED head is what the markets are focusing on right now.  Remember the North Korean nuclear Armageddon threats?  Neither do the markets. 

Turning to stocks, big tech companies just crushed their earnings estimates - Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Intel, Microsoft, Alibaba and Facebook.  Following Amazon's earnings report, Jeff Bezos, Amazon's CEO, saw his own personal stock holding in the company skyrocket.  He made so much money he could have bought the Knicks, Lakers & Warriors and have money left over -

And it wasn't just in tech land, old school names like Caterpillar, MMM, GM turned in great results. 

On the flip side, if you disappointed, your stock was punished much worse than it used to be.  Chipotle, Comcast, Bristol Myers, JC Penny, Mattel and Celgene - taken to the shed.  
It was bad news for Whirlpool.  They missed earnings, they cut their guidance, they got kicked out of Sears and they got downgraded at RBC.  Getting kicked out of Sears is a pretty low blow. 

On the Economic front, the data is enjoying quiet the rebound.  Last month, we got the first read on Q3 GDP and it came in at 3%.  That's 2 quarters in a row.  Durable goods and Capital Goods orders were both robust.

Personal income and spending were better; in fact, spending was the highest since 2009.  Now some of that could be hurricane related, so we have to see how long that lasts. 

And, Americans must be feeling pretty confident, because the latest read on consumer confidence soared to its highest level since 2000. 

New home sales were up 19% MoM - there's no hurricane impact in any of this data as speculative investors with deep pockets were snapping up properties in the South after storms. 

The latest comments from the Federal Reserve; they labeled the U.S. economy as 'solid' and they signaled that a December rate hike was still on track. 

Across the pond, Stocks across Europe were at around five-month highs as the situation between Spain and Catalonia couldn't even hold stocks down for long.   

The latest from the ECB was that they will slow the pace of their bond purchases (QE) in January, but extended the period until September of next year - a Dovish Taper.  And further, they said that inflation is running below their forecast, but GDP is running above - a Goldilocks scenario.

Looking ahead, corporate earnings will still be in focus.  The GOP is set to release their tax reform plan and the President is set to announce the next FED chair as Chair Yellen's term ends in February.

There will also be a lot of economic data coming on jobs, housing and manufacturing - so stay tuned and we'll keep you posted.

"As you grow older, you will discover that you have two hands,
one for helping yourself, the other for helping others."
- Audrey Hepburn
Mexican Quinoa Salad with Orange Lime Dressing



Salad (Place ingredients in a large bowl.)


- 5 to 6 cups mixed greens

- 1 cup cooked quinoa (red or white)

- 1 cup frozen corn

- 1 cup cooked black beans, seasoned with equal parts sea salt, cumin, chili, and garlic powder (save your bean liquid for the dressing)

- ¼ cup diced red onion

- 1 orange, segmented

- ½ ripe avocado, chopped

- ¼ cup of fresh cilantro, chopped or torn

Dressing(Blend all ingredients until smooth.)
- ½ ripe avocado
- 1 large lime, juiced (about 4 TBSP)
- 2 TBSP orange juice concentrate or 4 TBSP fresh orange juice
- 1 to 2 tsp sweetener of choice (agave, maple syrup, honey)
- 1 to 2 tsp hot sauce
- ¼ tsp cumin powder
- 1/8 tsp chili powder
generous pinches of sea salt and black pepper
- 1 TBSP fresh minced cilantro
- 3 to 4 TBSP black bean liquid (from can or water)
1. Pour salad dressing on salad.
2. Toss to distribute evenly.
3. Eat and enjoy!

Recipe adapted from Whitney's Kitchen

Beware of Fake-Charity Scams Related to Hurricane Relief
The Internal Revenue Service issued a warning about possible fake-charity scams that emerge during hurricane season. Be aware of criminals who try to take advantage of people's generosity by impersonating charities to get money or private information from well-meaning taxpayers. Such fraudulent schemes may involve contact by telephone, social media, email, or in-person solicitations.
The IRS encouraged taxpayers to seek out recognized charitable groups for their donations. has the tools people need to check the status of charitable organizations quickly and easily. Taxpayers suspecting fraud by email should visit and search for the keywords "Report Phishing."
More information about tax scams and schemes may be found at using the keywords "scams and schemes." Details on available relief can be found on the disaster relief page on
* This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax advisor.
Tip courtesy of

Hit a Knockdown Lob Shot
It may seem counterintuitive to use "knockdown" and "flop shot" in the same sentence, but it works. Hitting a good, go-to flop shot is easier than you think. First, make sure you notice the loft of your lob wedge. Most hover in the 58- to 60-degree range, meaning you should have no problem lifting the ball into the air. There's no need to try to lift the ball upward.
To hit the knockdown flop shot, position the ball front of center in your stance, with your hands just ahead of the golf ball. Because you already have plenty of loft, there's no need to rotate the face open. Keep it square to the target.
As you initiate your backswing, cock your wrists so the club is already parallel to the ground when your hands reach your thighs. Continue your backswing as you normally would, and keep that angle.
As you transition from the top of your swing to impact, here's the most important bit of info: Keep your hands ahead of the ball and stay low. If you try to flip the ball up, you might occasionally hit a lobber, but you probably won't be able to control it. Instead, stay low both at impact and through the finish. The result will be a nice mid-high lob shot that trickles a few feet forward once it hits the green.
Tips Courtesy of GolfTips Magazine

The Foundation for Healthy Sleep Habits
Sleeping at least seven high-quality hours is essential for optimal health. Sleep gives you the foundation for all your daily habits and decisions.
Sleep deprivation can negatively affect your mood and temperament, as well as your ability to focus on daily tasks. Lack of sleep influences what and how much you eat. During the rapid eye movement (REM) stage of sleep, your brain sorts the important information from the unimportant and files long-term memory. Sleeping fewer than seven hours a night is associated with weight gain, diabetes, high blood pressure, and depression, among other health risks.
On the flip side, making sleep a priority might help you achieve your other wellness goals, such as stress management. When your body and mind are well-rested, you'll be able to respond to life with greater perspective and understanding. Try these tips for getting better sleep and creating the foundation for your overall wellness.
Set a sleep goal. Aim to get at least seven hours of sleep a night so that you have the energy to tackle everyday demands.
Establish a regular bedtime and honor it. The first step to behavior change is making a commitment toward what you want to accomplish and sticking to your plan.
Eat healthier foods. The next time you find yourself mindlessly snacking, ask yourself if you may be tired rather than hungry. It's common to mistake fatigue or emotions for hunger.
Ease into sleep. Try deep breathing, progressive muscle relaxation, gentle stretching, or guided imagery to help focus your attention away from worries and into the present. If your busy mind keeps you awake, jot down your thoughts in a journal or on a pad of paper by your bed.

Tips courtesy of Mayo Clinic
Five Ways to Make Your Home Greener
Lowering our impact on the environment can go a long way toward protecting the Earth. The place we can start making change is the one we know best-our homes.  Here are five ways you can make your house more eco-friendly-you will also save money over time in your energy and water bills.
Choose energy-efficient appliances. When it's time to swap out that old refrigerator, washer, or other appliance with a new one, choose ones that are certified by Energy Star, which denotes products that meet a high level of energy efficiency.
Reduce water use. Install aerators on your faucets and change to low-flow shower heads. Outside your home, choose native vegetation for your landscaping.
Explore solar energy. Solar power can be harnessed to create electricity for your home, to heat water and to improve indoor lighting. The U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy can help you find the right solar solutions for you.
Use no- to low-VOC products. Aim to use paints and cleaning products with low to no volatile organic compounds, or VOCs. VOCs, may cause headaches, nausea, and irritation to the respiratory system, skin, and eyes, among other ailments.
Choose composting. Food waste in landfills generates methane, a greenhouse gas. Cut your carbon footprint by composting food scraps, except meat, in a backyard composting bin or even a worm bin.
Tip courtesy of U.S. Green Building Council
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Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values.


Diversification does not guarantee profit nor is it guaranteed to protect assets

The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.


The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ. The DJIA was invented by Charles Dow back in 1896.


The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) that serves as a benchmark of the performance in major international equity markets as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia and Southeast Asia.


The 10-year Treasury Note represents debt owed by the United States Treasury to the public. Since the U.S. Government is seen as a risk-free borrower, investors use the 10-year Treasury Note as a benchmark for the long-term bond market.


The Housing Market Index (HMI) is a weighted average of separate diffusion indices based on a monthly survey of NAHB members designed to take the pulse of the single-family housing market. Each resulting index is then seasonally adjusted and weighted to produce the HMI.


The Pending Home Sales Index, a leading indicator of housing activity,  measures housing contract activity, and is based on signed real estate contracts for existing single-family homes, condos and co-ops.  The PHSI looks at the monthly relationship between existing-home sale contracts and transaction closings over the last four years. The results are weighted to produce the index.


The Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index (VIX) is a weighted measure of the implied S&P 500 volatility. VIX is quoted in percentage points and translates, roughly, to the expected movement in the S&P 500 index over the upcoming 30-day period, which is then annualized.


The BLS Consumer Price Indexes (CPI) produces monthly data on changes in the prices paid by urban consumers for a representative basket of goods and services. Survey responses are seasonally adjusted and weighted to produce a composite index.


The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) is a composite economic index formed by averages of several individual leading economic indicators, which are weighted to produce the complete index.


Google Finance is the source for any reference to the performance of an index between two specific periods.


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Past performance does not guarantee future results.


You cannot invest directly in an index.


Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.

Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.


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