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In This Issue:
- Market Update: Market Uncertainty Talk of the Coffee Shops
- Washington, D.C. Update
- Announcing the Fifth Annual Ray Stoesser Memorial Scholarship
- Support Texas Rice Farmers: Sponsor the Texas Rice Roundup Today!
- RMTC 2026: Registration is Open for Past Exhibitors and Sponsors
- Photo from Rice Country
| | Market Uncertainty Talk of the Coffee Shops | | |
Bins across rice states are filling up with a crop that has yet to find a home. Paddy exports have dropped nearly 50% from this time last year, and milled exports seem to now be solely dependent on Iraq fulfilling its MOU. With each new announcement of an Iraqi tender, the industry breathes a collective sigh of relief. Finding a home for this crop will be a tall order with short prices, but it must be done. Louisiana and Texas are all but complete, while Mississippi and Arkansas are both about 50%. Missouri is now about a third of the way through. California got a spell of cooler weather this week, which means producers are still waiting for harvest to begin in earnest until next week. For U.S. long grain rice, the question is 2026. Comments are being offered about a 25% reduction in planting next spring.
We mention the drop in paddy exports because it will continue to be a slog to gain traction in the coming campaign. Reports from South America say that Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, and Paraguay produced significant amounts of rice this year. Exports are normal for the region, but because of the larger production, stocks are expected to end at record levels. Carryover stocks are predicted to be 4 - 4.5 million tons by December 31. The only respite is that because prices are so low, nearly 45% lower than last year, rice plantings will be reduced in the coming South American crop. However, we are not seeing a significant reduction just yet. The hope is that the reduced plantings will counterbalance the high stocks, but we can’t report with any certainty on that. What is certain is that the rice complex needs a mechanism to ameliorate the persistent problems that refuse to go away, be it over-production/over-subsidization in India, climate impacts, Haitian politics, and a litany of other occlusions that weigh on the market.
In Asia, the market hasn’t moved up or down in about a month. Thai prices have held steady at $360 pmt, and the good news is that neither Viet nor Indian prices have joined them. Vietnamese 5% is holding steady at $385pmt, and Indian 5% at $380 pmt. There simply is no shortage of rice in the Eastern or Western Hemispheres, thus creating a buyer’s market where sellers (and therefore farmers) have no leverage.
On the ground, cash prices are still largely indicated due to a lack of activity for new crop purchases. We would report that Texas sits at $12.25/cwt, Louisiana at $11.75/cwt, with Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri at $10.50/$12/cwt.
The weekly USDA Export Sales report shows net sales of 56,900 MT this week, primarily for Haiti (13,500 MT), Saudi Arabia (11,200 MT), Honduras (10,700 MT, including decreases of 300 MT), Nicaragua (10,000 MT), and Canada (6,800 MT). Exports of 78,400 MT were primarily to Canada (44,100 MT), Honduras (9,900 MT), Haiti (6,900 MT), El Salvador (5,800 MT), and Mexico (5,100 MT).
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HHS Releases Updated MAHA Strategy Report:
On Tuesday, September 9, Department of Human and Health Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. led a press conference announcing the release of the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) Commission’s ‘Make Our Children Healthy Again’ Strategy Report. Secretary Kennedy was joined by U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Secretary Brooke Rollins and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Lee Zeldin and other Administration officials, each speaking to recommendations relevant to their respective agencies. The strategy aims to address the current chronic disease epidemic among children and includes 120 initiatives that focus on four key areas: restoring science and research, historic executive actions, process reform and deregulation, and public awareness education. At the time of this writing, timeline implementation seems to be vague, but likely HHS and other agencies will be more forthcoming in the coming weeks and months. You can read the full strategy here.
ERS Releases Updated Farm Sector Income Forecast:
Last week, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Economic Research Service (ERS) released an updated farm sector income forecast. In 2025, ERS forecasted net farm income to reach $179.8 billion, $52.0 billion (40.7%) higher than in 2024. Similarly, net cash farm income is projected to be at $180.7 billion for 2025, an increase of $40.1 billion (28.5%) relative to 2024. When accounting for inflation-adjusted 2025 dollars, net farm income is expected to increase by $48.8 billion (37.2%) from 2024, while net cash farm income is forecasted to increase by $36.5 billion (25.3%) compared to the previous year. Other takeaways from the report include total farm cash receipts to increase by $24.0 billion (4.7%) to $535.2 billion in 2025 in nominal dollars. Adversely, total crop receipts are forecasted to decrease by $6.1 billion (2.5%) to $236.6 billion in 2025 due to lower receipts for soybeans, corn, and wheat, whereas total animal/animal products receipts are projected to increase by $30.0 billion (11.2%) to $298.6 billion in 2025, largely due to the current market supporting high cattle prices relative to 2024. Direct government farm payments are up by $30.4 billion, projecting a total of $40.5 billion for 2025 due to recent supplemental and ad hoc assistance appropriated to the agricultural sector. Lastly, it’s worth noting that ERS forecasted total production expenses to increase by $12.0 billion (2.6%) from 2024 to $467.4 billion in 2025. You can read ERS’s full farm sector income report here.
| | Fifth Annual Ray Stoesser Memorial Scholarship: Application is Now Available | | Support Texas Rice Farmers:
Sponsor the Texas Rice Roundup Today! | | | |  |
Food & Agriculture
Regulatory & Policy Roundup
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World Agricultural Production
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Grain: World Markets
& Trade
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October 1 - 4, 2025
Texas Rice Festival - Main Festival
Winnie, TX
More Information
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January 21, 2026
Western Rice Belt Conference
More details to come
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January 31, 2026
Texas Rice Roudup
Richmond, TX
Sponsor Sign Up
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February 5 - 6, 2026
29th Annual National Conservation Systems Cotton & Rice Conference
Jonesboro, AR
More Information
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