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US stock futures tick higher.

US stock futures are ticking higher, indicating the S&P 500 will add to an almost 2% weekly performance, its strongest since November’s election. The pound weakened after a surprise drop in UK retail sales. 

Risk mood sours with the US dollar gaining against most major peers. Asian stocks edge down despite data showing China’s economy had a somewhat strong finish to 2024. Treasuries steady as Fed Governor Waller said officials could cut rates again in the first half of 2025.

China’s economy grew 5% in 2024, hitting the government’s growth goal, although looming US tariffs threaten to take away a key driver of expansion.

Wall Street’s biggest banks paid out the most in three years to shareholders in the form of dividends and buybacks.

Bond yields dropped after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said that officials could lower rates again in the first half of 2025. While most companies rose, a slide in tech megacaps dragged down the stock market.

Almost three quarters of Bank of Japan watchers predict an interest rate hike next week, according to the latest Bloomberg survey. That’s a jump in expectations after Governor Kazuo Ueda said his board will discuss the move.

There are idiots: Seven pillars of market bubbles

We appear to be in the midst of a raging bitcoin bubble. The stock market, or at least its lunatic fringe of meme stocks and crypto-related firms, is not far behind. How can we understand the origins of speculative mania? Here are seven phrases of timeless relevance. (Acadian | Jan 2025)

US bond 'death spiral' risk brushed aside by foreign funds

Whether you’re speaking with Europe’s largest money manager, Australia’s giant pension funds, or a cash-rich insurer in Japan, there’s a resounding message you’ll hear when it comes to US Treasuries: They are still hard to beat. Overseas funds hold a near-record $7.3 trillion of US debt. US bonds appear more attractive at these yield levels. (Bloomberg Markets | Jan 16)

Fed's Beige Book points to slight to moderate growth at year-end

Economic activity increased “slightly to moderately” across the US in late November and December, supported by strong holiday sales, the Federal Reserve said in its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts. Contacts were more optimistic than pessimistic about the outlook for 2025, though several expressed concerns about the potential impact of changes in immigration and tariff policy. A number of manufacturers reported stockpiling inventories in anticipation of higher levies, according to the Fed report released Wednesday. (Bloomberg Economics | Jan 17)

S&P 500 snaps three-day win streak, Apple drags Nasdaq to losing session

The S&P 500 slipped Thursday, ending a three-day winning streak, as big tech shares pulled back. The broad market index slid 0.21% to 5,937.34. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.89% to 19,338.29. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 68.42 points, or 0.16%, to 43,153.13. Apple shares were down 4%, posting their worst day since Aug. 5. Tesla tumbled more than 3%. Nvidiaslid nearly 2%, and Alphabet lost around 1%. The major averages gave up gains from earlier in the day, which came on the back of strong corporate earnings. Morgan Stanley beat earnings expectations, sending the stock up 4%. Bank of America also exceeded bottom-line estimates, but the stock slipped about 1%. The results come a day after other financial peers such as JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs also beat fourth-quarter estimates. (CNBC | Jan 16)

Investors pour billions into S&P equal weight fund as tech fears rise

Investors garner record inflows on growing concerns over Magnificent Seven’s dominance of US market. (Financial Times - free link | Jan 15)

US posts record $711 billion deficit for first three months of fiscal 2025

The US government posted an $87 billion budget deficit in December, reduced partly by a shift of benefit payments into November but capping a record $711 billion deficit for the first three months of the 2025 fiscal year, the US Treasury Department said on Tuesday. The Treasury said that the $711 billion October-December deficit was $201 billion, or 39% higher, than the $510 billion deficit in the same period a year earlier as outlays grew sharply and revenues declined slightly. (Reuters | Jan 14)

CISOs more concerned about ransomware than CEOs

Ransomware is the top organizational cyber risk this year, the World Economic Forum said in its Global Cybersecurity Outlook for 2025. Nearly half of all respondents to the annual global survey said a ransomware attack concerns them the most. While ransomware ranked as the top cyber risk among CEOs and CISOs, the report found a significant gap in the level of concern between the executive roles. Nearly 1 in 3 CEOs said ransomware is their top cyber risk concern, but more than half of CISOs made the same determination.

— Cybersecurity Dive

Chinese hacked US Treasury Secretqary Yellen's computer in breach

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s computer was infiltrated and unclassified files were accessed as part of a broader breach of the agency by Chinese state-sponsored hackers, according to two people familiar with the matter. The attackers also hacked the computers of two of Yellen’s lieutenants, Deputy Secretary Wally Adeyemo and Acting Under Secretary Brad Smith, according to the people, who asked not to be identified discussing sensitive information. Fewer than 50 files on Yellen’s machine were accessed.

— Bloomberg Technology | Cybersecurity

China hackers broke into 400-plus Treasury PCs, report says

Chinese state-sponsored hackers who breached the US Treasury Department got into more than 400 laptop and desktop computers, taking particular interest in the machines of staff and senior leaders focused on sanctions, international affairs, and intelligence. Hackers likely stole more than 3,000 files, but Treasury found no evidence of lingering access or malware.

— Bloomberg Technology | Cybersecurity

Illustration: Eugene Mymrin | Getty Images

J.P. Morgan’s Michael Cembalest predicts Trump 'alchemists' will prompt a correction in 2025

“They are going to break something. I just don’t know what.” J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s Michael Cembalest calls them “Alchemists” — the Trump White House nominees who are looking to dramatically alter the US economy. The upshot, he predicts, will be a 10 to 15 percent correction in the stock market in 2025 “as the Alchemists apply their elixirs.”

— Institutional Investor

The most underrated travel joys in the world

While we’re all familiar with many of the purest and largest travel pleasures — such as an upgrade to a business class ticket, perhaps — other wins may be a bit more esoteric or unusual, but should be celebrated all the same. Their quirkiness may even make them all the better to enjoy. When you get tagged with another flight delay, or stuck with another windowless window seat, bank on these incredible, underrated moments of bliss, the unheralded small joys that end up as huge game-changers for the frequent traveler.

— InsideHook

Access to your airport lounge is getting even harder

Flight more than three hours from now? Wait your turn. Want to bring free guests? Sorry, you’ll have to pay, even for the kids. Oh, and that credit card or frequent-flier status that used to get you in? Not now. More crackdowns are coming in 2025 as airlines and credit card companies continue their never-ending quest to control crowds. For travelers, it is time to evaluate whether that costly credit card promising lounge access is worth it. If you want in—and plenty of us do–do the math and make sure it fits your travels.

— The Wall Street Journal