|
On 02 February 2022, Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) suicide bombers targeted two separate Frontier Corps (FC) headquarters in Noshki and Panjgur, Balochistan, Pakistan, districts located 7 hour's distance from each other. Initial local reports suggested at least 50 personnel were killed and that the militants took approximately 200 personnel hostage in a follow-up armed assault, rendering this incident as one of the largest attacks on security forces by any Baloch separatist group. The BLA has provided several statements and videos to announce the conclusion of the operation and claim that more than 195 army personnel were killed in these operations; even if that number is exaggerated still an enormous operation. Notably, Baloch separatist groups, including the BLA, rarely use suicide bombers in their operations. The BLA has incorporated suicide bombings into only a few of its attacks. Most of these two place took place around 2018, with only one suicide operation in 2021. These incidents highlight a trend TRAC has long observed: militancy is on the rise in Balochistan. Baloch separatist groups are perpetrating larger-scale attacks, diversifying their modus operandi, and expanding their areas of operations. These attacks are all claimed or suspected of belonging to the organizations falling under the the Baloch Raji Aajoi Sangar (BRAS) umbrella. These groups – the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), the Baloch Liberation Front (BLF), and the new Baloch Nationalist Army (BNA). While they previously lacked the capacity to launch coordinated, large-scale attacks, particularly in an urban setting, they have each entered 2022 with a newfound fervor, likely due to the fact that a quid pro quo arrangement with the Tehreek-e-Taliban Islami Pakistan (TTP) was made in 2021, whereby TTP helps train Baloch groups in exchange for help with logistics in Balochistan.
| | |
|
TRAC Insight:
Overview of Islamic State Global Operations for January 2022 (Major Threat Areas: Syria, Sina’a Prison Break; Iraq, IS Shifting Forces; Nigeria, ISWAP Expansion)
| |
Image: Moment of IED Blast on Sina’a Prison | |
There have been 151 claimed Islamic State attacks in January of 2022. This is a 6.3% increase over December 2021, which was much less active than anticipated, especially during the Christmas season. There was an overall increase in activity in most Wilayah. Syria led the way with its activity doubling in the month of January 2022 over claimed attacks in December 2021. Conversely, Iraq’s activity remains lower, falling by 27% over last month. However, take caution not to consider this an ebb due to weakness in the organization. Rather, it is more likely that cells operating in Iraq have resourced Syria in their build-up and drive against Sina’a and follow-on attacks. | |
To Islamic State there is no functional border between Iraq and Syria, considering them one “Caliphate.” Due to this, Islamic State does not care about the location where the claims are issued from, only that they remain. TRAC proposes that, flush with hundreds of new fighters from the successful Sina’a prison break, claimed attack levels will likely return to pre-November numbers in Iraq by the time of Ramadan, and continue to maintain an increased operational tempo in Syria. The levels of attacks in January 2022 are relatively equivalent in Iraq, Syria, and Nigeria, bringing Syria in line with the two most active Islamic State theaters. | |
TRAC Incident Report:
TRAC Incident Report: Participants of the Anti-COVID
‘Freedom Convoy 2022’ Conduct an Arson Attack at an Apartment Building in Downtown Ottawa, Ontario, Canada
| |
Images: Footage from CCTV Cameras | |
On 06 February 2022, participants of the anti-COVID "Freedom Convoy 2022" conducted an arson attack at an apartment building in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. Two arsonists brought a full package of fire starter bricks into the lobby of an apartment building and began to light the package, with one of them taping the door handles so no one could escape. As the fire was being lit, a tenant approached the men to ask who they were. One of the arsonists admitted being part of the convoy protests. The tenant quickly got into the elevator and arsonists continued to ignite the package. Once lit, it grew and nearly touched the wood panel walls. The arsonists escaped out the side door as video shows the fire growing. A civilian passing by saw the fire, and broke through the taped doors to extinguish it. The kick-off of this "Freedom Convoy" took place in late January and while there has been some debate as to whether this protest is against COVID-19 vaccines or government mandates, there has been strong evidence that this protest has a far-right ideological orientation and this incident provides further evidence to that end. As an example of the so-called horse shoe effect in political science, TRAC has long observed how the far-right extremists advocate arson attacks. These far-right channels argue that arson attacks are a viable tactic insofar as they are cheap, easy to do, and 90% of arson attack cases go unsolved. | |
TRAC Incident Report:
The People’s Defence Force (PDF) Targeted a Tatmadaw Training Camp with Weaponized Modified Surveillance Drones in Shwebo, Sagaing, Myanmar
| |
Images: Screenshot from video footage of drone usage. | |
On 07 February 2022, the People’s Defence Force (PDF) targeted a Tatmadaw training camp with weaponized modified surveillance drones in Shwebo, Sagaing, Myanmar. The blue-colored ammunition was locally-made by PDF fighters and inspired by Burmese HEDP Rifle grenades and it remains unclear if there were any casualties or injuries. Though the payloads appear to be small, the fact that the PDF was able to successfully modify and operate retail surveillance drones is a feat that is difficult to accomplish. Once the retail drone has extra weight added to its fuselage, the drone becomes unwieldy. Mexican drug cartels have been attempting to weaponize surveillance drones for years, mostly unsuccessfully. Additionally, this is not the first instance of a group using modified weaponized drones for their operations to overthrow the government in Myanmar. The Karenni Generation Z (KGZ) rebels carried out a modified weaponized drone attack on Tatmadaw soldiers in Lay Kay Kyaw back on 31 December 2021. | |
TRAC Incident Report: Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) Launches Attack on Tadjalat Village, Gao Region, Mali | |
|
Far-Right Extremism: Neo-Nazi Telegram Channel Shares a Video Against Non-White Immigrants and Refugees in Europe
| |
|
Anonymous Anarchist: German Anarchist Published a Detailed Manual on Possible Locations, Targets, & Attack Ideas to Stop Any Form of Military Support Being Sent to the Ukraine
| | | | |
