Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

6 – “Be wary of paramilitaries. When the men with guns who have always claimed to be against the system start wearing uniforms and marching with torches and pictures of a leader, the end is nigh. When the pro-leader paramilitary and the official police and military intermingle, the end has come.”

– Timothy Snyder

This constant lying is not aimed at making the people believe a lie, but at ensuring that no one believes anything anymore. A people that can no longer distinguish between truth and lies cannot distinguish between right and wrong. And such a people, deprived of the power to think, and judge, is, judge without knowing and willing it completely subjected to the rule of lies. With such a people, you can do whatever you want.

– Hannah Arendt.

Four things belong to a judge: to hear courteously, to answer wisely, to consider soberly, and to decide impartially."

–Socrates

1. Standoff in South Korea Raises the Specter of Bloody Clashes No Doubt Welcomed by Kim Jong-un in North Korea

2. North Korean troops in Ukraine gain battlefield experience, cementing alliance with Russia

3. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 11, 2025

4. Ukraine releases first testimony from captured North Korean soldiers

5. Opinion | Why the US will not allow a nuclear-armed South Korea

6. Elizabeth Shackelford: Plight of South Korea’s democracy has lessons for us

7. “North Korean troops deployed to Russia are being used as human mine detectors”

8. Acting President Choi calls for bipartisan special counsel to resolve conflict over Yoon's arrest

9. North Koreans fight over feces as annual ‘compost battle’ begins

10. North Korea’s newest luxury mall opens IKEA store, apparently without permission

11. ROK court administrator fined $140K over alleged North Korean data theft

12. Kim Jong Un Welcomes Donald J. Trump to Second Term

13. Black box from South Korea plane crash did not record final 4 minutes, officials say

14. N.K. soldier captured by Ukraine says he thought was going to training, not war: Kyiv

15. Yoon's lawyer says president to be absent from first formal hearing in impeachment trial

16. HD Hyundai Heavy begins project to build 4 warships for Peruvian Navy

1. Standoff in South Korea Raises the Specter of Bloody Clashes No Doubt Welcomed by Kim Jong-un in North Korea

I am going to continue to beat the horse on this last comment. I will not let up on it.

Excerpt:

Regardless, North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un has to love the chaos in the South. “Ironically, this is the outcome that the Kim family regime’s political warfare strategy is designed to achieve — subversion of the South Korean political system,” a retired American army colonel with a long background in Korea, David Maxwell, tells the Sun. “We really need the Korean people in the South to understand how their violent actions support Kim’s political warfare strategy. This is critical.”

Standoff in South Korea Raises the Specter of Bloody Clashes No Doubt Welcomed by Kim Jong-un in North Korea

The danger of violence begins with the security service defending the president — and extends to firebrands confronting one another.

https://www.nysun.com/article/standoff-in-south-korea-raises-the-specter-of-bloody-clashes-no-doubt-welcomed-by-kim-jong-un-in-north-korea

Supporters of impeached South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol attend a rally to oppose his impeachment. AP/Ahn Young-joon

DONALD KIRK

Jan. 12, 2025 08:40 AM ET

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The standoff between South Korea’s impeached president, Yoon Suk-yeol, and investigators bent on dragging him from his presidential bastion raises the specter of bloody clashes in a society fractured by extremists from left to right.

“There should be no physical clashes and bloodshed,” the chief of the presidential security service, Park Chong-jun, warned hours before he resigned and agreed to be questioned about his role in defending the president, Yonhap News reported.

Violence, however, remains a distinct possibility even if Mr. Yoon, stripped of authority but not the title of president, is arrested. The acting president, Choi Sang-mok, warned against “physical clashes between government agencies under any circumstances,” according to Yonhap, but thousands of demonstrators both for and against Mr. Yoon remain poised for battle beyond the barricades blocking them from the presidential residence.

“I am concerned,” a retired Korean lieutenant general, Chun In-Bum, tells the Sun. “There have already been minor incidents, and the more prolonged the standoff continues, the more chance violence is a possibility.”

The fear of bloodshed focuses first on the presidential security service forming a tight line of impregnable resistance against renewed attempts by the high-level Corruption Investigation Office to serve a warrant for Mr. Yoon’s arrest. The CIO says it needs to hold Mr. Yoon for interrogation after he spurned repeated calls to submit to questioning about the martial law decree he issued on December 3.

Though he rescinded the martial law decree six hours after the national assembly, dominated by the leftist Minju, or Democratic party, rejected it before voting to impeach him, his foes want him held for staging an “insurrection.” Often described as “a coup,” Mr. Yoon’s decree may inspire a counter-coup by his enemies.

“Police fear there could be a shootout in the event they try forcing their way into the presidential compound,” a long-time analyst who covered Korean issues for years for the Far Eastern Economic Review, Shim Jae Hoon, tells the Sun. “That’s what the Democrats are egging on the police so as to extract Yoon out of his redoubt.”

The danger of violence begins with the security service living up to what its leaders see as their obligation to defend the president — and extends to firebrands in the throngs confronting one another in freezing weather in the upscale neighborhood near Korea’s military headquarters on the historic Yongsan base.

At stake are disagreements extending from economic and regional feuds at home to the American Korean alliance and relations with North Korea.

“For many Koreans, the stakes are enormous,” a former senior American diplomat in Seoul, Evans Revere, tells the Sun. “That is a dangerous combination.” Conservatives, he noted, “despise and fear” the “progressives” led by Lee Jae-myung, whom Mr. Yoon defeated by a margin of less than one percent of the votes in the 2022 presidential election.

“These conservatives are rallying around Yoon,” said Mr. Revere, “because they want to prevent what his failed martial law declaration will almost certainly produce — a new government led by the hated left-of-center progressives represented by the Democratic Party.”

Fears of violence might well intensify if Mr. Yoon is detained while the constitutional court considers whether to approve the impeachment motion adopted by the national assembly. The court has opened hearings at which Mr. Yoon’s lawyers say he will testify in the next few weeks. It’s not clear if he could appear via video or would leave his residence to go to the court if he’s not in detention.

Mr. Yoon’s foes see him and his conservative allies “as heirs to Korea’s military dictatorship,” said Mr. Revere. “They want to oust Yoon and quickly replace him with DP leader Lee” in a snap election that would be held 60 days after the court kicks him out of office. “Their urgency is cynically driven by the need to put their standard-bearer, Lee, into power rapidly so that, as president, he can avoid prosecution on numerous corruption and other charges,” he said.

Regardless, North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un has to love the chaos in the South. “Ironically, this is the outcome that the Kim family regime’s political warfare strategy is designed to achieve — subversion of the South Korean political system,” a retired American army colonel with a long background in Korea, David Maxwell, tells the Sun. “We really need the Korean people in the South to understand how their violent actions support Kim’s political warfare strategy. This is critical.”

DONALD KIRK

Mr. Kirk, based in Seoul and Washington, has been covering Asia for decades for newspapers and magazines and is the author of books on Korea, the Vietnam War and the Philippines.

2. North Korean troops in Ukraine gain battlefield experience, cementing alliance with Russia

Yes we are so afraid of all the battlefield experience north Korea is gaining (I still have not read credible reports of their capabilities and actions - perhaps there are classified analyses based on first hand observations but until we can see those I remain skeptical about the effectiveness of north korean troops))

But the fear of their gaining experience should only scare us if they can translate the experience of a relatively small number of troops into modern training of the majority of their combat forces. And just being exposed to fire does not give them superhuman military capabilities. On day 2 of the resumption of the Korean War South Korean soldiers will be just as experienced after having shot at. The key is South Korean soldiers are trained to a much higher standard and level of readiness. So unless the nKPA can turn their experiences in Russia/Ukraine into training for the vast majority of their combat forces their combat experience will not add much to nKPA capabilities.

North Korean troops in Ukraine gain battlefield experience, cementing alliance with Russia

AP · January 12, 2025

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — For weeks, Ukrainian troops braced for an unfamiliar enemy: North Korean soldiers sent to bolster Moscow’s forces after Ukraine launched a lightning-fast incursion and seized territory in Russia’s Kursk region over the summer.

Their arrival marked a new and alarming phase in the war. And while initially inexperienced on the battlefield, North Korean troops have adapted quickly — a development that could have far-reaching consequences as they gain combat knowledge in the war against Ukraine.

Unlike the Russian troops Ukraine has been battling for nearly three years, Kyiv’s forces were uncertain about what to expect from this new adversary, drawn into the war after Moscow and Pyongyang signed an agreement pledging military assistance using “all means” if either were attacked.

One Ukrainian soldier who has witnessed North Koreans in battle described them as disciplined and highly methodical, saying they were more professional than their Russian counterparts. The soldier spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the sensitive military issue.

However, other soldiers, including Ukrainian special forces, have shared battlefield drone footage on the Telegram messaging app mocking their tactics as outdated.

Nevertheless, there is consensus among Ukrainian soldiers, military intelligence and others monitoring developments on the ground: While Pyongyang’s troops lacked battlefield experience when they arrived, that has been changing quickly.

With 1.2 million troops, North Korea’s military ranks among the largest standing armies globally. But its post-Korean War foreign engagements have been limited, leaving them inexperienced with modern warfare technologies like drones.

“For the first time in decades, the North Korean army is gaining real military experience,” said Andrii Yusov, spokesperson for Ukraine’s military intelligence agency. “This is a global challenge — not just for Ukraine and Europe, but for the entire world.”

Identifying the presence of North Korean troops

Despite Ukrainian, U.S. and South Korean assertions that Pyongyang has sent 10,000-12,000 troops to fight alongside Russia in the Kursk border region, Moscow has never publicly acknowledged the North Korean forces.

While reports of their presence first emerged in October, Ukrainian troops only confirmed engagement on the ground in December.

Analysts say that without the influx of North Korean troops, Russia would have struggled to pursue its strategy of overwhelming Ukraine by throwing large numbers of soldiers into the battle for Kursk.

While Moscow’s counterattack in Kursk has inflicted thousands of Ukrainian casualties, Kyiv’s overstretched forces have managed to hold on to about half of the 984 square kilometers (380 square miles) seized in August, though the situation remains dynamic. Besides the symbolic impact of Ukraine’s success capturing Russian territory, control of Kursk could also be a bargaining chip in any ceasefire negotiations.

According to Ukraine’s intelligence agency, the North Korean soldiers are operating alongside Russian units, with the latter providing reconnaissance and electronic warfare support.

The North Koreans wear Russian military uniforms with fake military IDs in their pockets, according to a report by a Ukrainian military unit that has observed them on the battlefield, and they could easily be mistaken for Russian soldiers.

The subterfuge means Moscow and “its representatives at the U.N. can deny the facts,” said Yusov, the Ukrainian military intelligence spokesperson.

Among the things proving their presence is that they have been heard speaking Korean with North Korean accents in intercepted communications, Yusov said.

He said the North Korean troops are using their own weapons and equipment and have learned to cope with the improvised explosives-laden drones that have become emblematic of the war, first-hand experience even some NATO-member countries don’t have.

“This is a new level of threat,” Yusov said. “Regional countries must prepare for what this means in the future.”

North Koreans gain invaluable experience on the battlefield

The North Koreans’ early missteps were largely caused by inexperience, such as moving in large groups in open terrain, making them easy targets for drones and artillery strikes.

According to the Ukrainian military unit’s report, the North Korean soldiers were spotted easily as they moved in single-file columns through forest in groups of three, with 3 to 5 meters (yards) between soldiers. On open terrain, they moved in dispersed formations of five to 15 soldiers, making them vulnerable and leading to heavy losses.

However, during night operations, their movements were swift and units oriented themselves using red flashlights along routes, the report said.

“They’re fast, physically well-prepared, and act strictly according to their algorithms,” said the Ukrainian soldier who spoke to the AP. “If you drill the same routines for years, to the point where they can be executed blindfolded, it will yield results.”

Despite their discipline, their lack of combat experience hindered their effectiveness. The Ukrainian military reported that North Korean troops often sustained heavy losses, with many killed by drones.

On Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy put the number of killed or wounded North Koreans at 4,000, though U.S. estimates are lower, at around 1,200.

“Much of their military doctrine and training is based on strategies and experiences from over half a century ago,” said Glib Voloskyi, a military analyst with the Ukrainian think tank CBA Initiatives Center.

The large-group formations date to when artillery accuracy was significantly lower, and observing troop movements much more difficult. Today, reconnaissance and so-called first-person view drones, or FPVs, that transmit video allowing soldiers to strike targets in real time have made the battlefield highly transparent, and anyone stepping onto it without cover, let alone moving in groups, is immediately spotted.

“But it is only a matter of time before they acquire the necessary skills to improve their combat effectiveness, which, combined with their discipline and training, could make them a significant military force,” Voloskyi said.

No surrender policy means few North Korean POWs

After weeks of fighting, Ukrainian soldiers have taken only two prisoners of war. In announcing the capture Saturday, Zelenskyy said taking them alive “was not easy” because of efforts to conceal the North Koreans’ presence and avoid their interrogation by Ukraine.

North Korean soldiers avoid surrendering at all costs, Zelenskyy said.

This may stem from North Korean internal propaganda that portrays capture as the ultimate disgrace, analysts said.

“To be captured alive is considered a betrayal of the country, the leader and everything they stand for,” said Seongmin Lee of the New York-based Human Rights Foundation, who defected from North Korea in 2009.

This belief is instilled from a young age and reinforced throughout military training, he said. “Because of the disgrace associated with the capitulation, heroic soldiers are supposed to save the last of their bullets to kill themselves,” Lee said.

Lee said he shared photos of dead North Korean soldiers with contacts back home. “Most North Koreans don’t even know what is going on,” he said.

Dorothy Camille Shea, the deputy U.S. ambassador to the U.N., warned of the dangers posed by the rapidly improving battlefield skills the North Korean troops are gaining fighting in Kursk.

North Korea “is significantly benefiting from receiving Russian military equipment, technology and experience, rendering it more capable of waging war against its neighbors,” Shea told the 15-member U.N. Security Council on Wednesday.

As an added potential benefit, she said, North Korea “ will likely be eager to leverage these improvements to promote weapons sales and military training contracts globally.”

___

Associated Press reporters Tong-hyung Kim in Seoul, South Korea, and Michael Weissenstein at the United Nations contributed.

AP · January 12, 2025

3. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 11, 2025

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, January 11, 2025

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-11-2025

Ukrainian forces reportedly captured the first North Korean prisoners of war (POWs) in Kursk Oblast. Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) stated on January 11 that elements of the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) captured a North Korean soldier in Kursk Oblast on January 9 and that Ukrainian Airborne Assault Forces recently captured a second North Korean solider in the area on an unspecified date. The SBU stated that Ukrainian authorities are working with South Korean intelligence to communicate with the POWs as they do not speak English, Russian, or Ukrainian. One of the POWs was carrying a Russian military registration card from the Tuva Republic that Russian authorities reportedly issued him in Fall 2024. The POW told Ukrainian authorities that he had undergone coordination training with Russian forces for only one week before deploying to combat and that he thought he was going to a training exercise in Russia, not to the war in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that usually Russian or North Korean forces kill wounded North Korean personnel in order to conceal their participation in the war.

North Korean forces are reportedly deploying large assault groups to combat operations despite frequent Ukrainian drone strikes, which is likely contributing to North Korea's high casualty rates and will likely affect the lessons that the North Korean military command will learn from fighting in the war. The Washington Post reported on January 11 that North Koreans fighting in Kursk Oblast are attacking in large groups with support from Russian artillery and drones, unlike Russian forces who usually move in smaller groups. North Korean soldiers are also reportedly ignoring Ukrainian drones and continuing to move forward despite drone strikes on personnel. The Washington Post reported that Russian forces are following behind North Korean advances in order to "stabilize the gains," but a Ukrainian solider operating in Kursk Oblast reported that communications issues between Russian and North Korean forces may be slowing Russian efforts to consolidate new positions. The Ukrainian soldier stated that North Korean forces launched an assault consisting of 400 to 500 personnel in December 2024, during which North Korean forces outnumbered Ukrainian forces six-to-one. Ammunition shortages reportedly forced the Ukrainian forces to withdraw after eight hours of fighting — suggesting that North Korean forces are heavily relying on a superior number of personnel to advance despite poor tactics. The solider stated that Ukrainian forces had inflicted significant losses on Russia's 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet [BSF], Southern Military District [SMD]), possibly pushing the Russian military command to deploy North Korean forces to Kursk Oblast sooner than planned. Western officials have recently noted that North Korean forces are suffering high casualties, including at least one instance of roughly 1,000 casualties in Kursk Oblast in only one week in late December 2024. Zelensky reported on January 5 that 3,800 North Korean personnel have been killed or wounded in Kursk Oblast — roughly a third of the reported 12,000 total North Korean personnel in Kursk Oblast — and stated that North Korean forces lost up to a battalion of infantry near Makhnovka, Kursk Oblast on January 3 and 4 alone. ISW continues to assess that North Korea's ability to learn and integrate lessons from fighting alongside Russian forces will likely be significantly degraded if the Russian military command uses North Korean troops in highly attritional infantry-led assaults in similar or greater sizes than it conducts with most Russian personnel. North Korean forces' inability or refusal to learn to effectively counter drones will also affect the lessons they can learn from the war.

Key Takeaways:

Ukrainian forces reportedly captured the first North Korean prisoners of war (POWs) in Kursk Oblast.

North Korean forces are reportedly deploying large assault groups to combat operations despite frequent Ukrainian drone strikes, which is likely contributing to North Korea's high casualty rates and will likely affect the lessons that the North Korean military command will learn from fighting in the war.

Russian President Vladimir Putin maintains his maximalist pre-war demands to isolate Ukraine and weaken NATO and reportedly aims to enforce these demands in any possible talks with Western leaders about ending the war in Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces may have conducted a drone strike against an oil refinery in the Republic of Tatarstan on January 11, but details of the possible strike remain unclear at this time.

Ukrainian forces may have conducted a drone strike against an oil refinery in the Republic of Tatarstan on January 11, but details of the possible strike remain unclear at this time.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast.

4. Ukraine releases first testimony from captured North Korean soldiers

As I was discussing with my good friends and the President and CEO of the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea, Greg Scarlatoiu yesterday, some of this reporting seems to be crude propaganda.

Ukraine releases first testimony from captured North Korean soldiers

Kyiv says two DPRK soldiers believed they were being deployed for training, not to fight for Russia against Ukraine

https://www.nknews.org/2025/01/ukraine-releases-first-testimony-from-captured-north-korean-soldiers/?utm

Anton Sokolin January 11, 2025

North Korean soldiers captured by the Ukrainian military in Kursk | Image: Volodymyr Zelensky via Telegram

Ukraine has released the first testimony from North Korean soldiers captured fighting for Russia in the Kursk region, providing the latest “undeniable” evidence of the DPRK’s involvement in Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his counterintelligence agency announced late Saturday that two wounded North Korean soldiers were captured and taken to Kyiv for treatment and subsequent questioning.

One was captured by Tactical Group No. 84 of the Special Operations Forces on Jan. 9, while the other was taken by Ukrainian paratroopers, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said without disclosing the date of the capture.

A North Korean soldier born in 1999 with a jaw injury captured by the Ukrainian forces in Russia’s Kursk region | Image: Volodymyr Zelensky via Telegram

Neither speak English, Ukrainian or Russian, according to the SBU, hence South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) is assisting Ukrainian authorities in communicating with the prisoners.

One of the soldiers claims he was born in 2005 and has been a rifleman in the DPRK military since 2021, according to the SBU. He added that he believed he was being deployed for training, and not to fight in the war against Ukraine.

The SBU revealed the other man said he was born in 1999 and has served as a sniper-reconnaissance officer since 2016, while also “confirming the testimony of his partner.” He had to write his testimony due to a jaw injury.

One of the DPRK soldiers had a fake Russian military identification document issued to another person from Tuva, a region in Siberia, the SBU said, suggesting an attempt to conceal his identity.

The Ukrainian military previously claimed it had seized fake identification documents of North Korean soldiers killed in action in Kursk.

The other soldier had no papers at all. The soldier with the Russian military identification told SBU investigators that the document was issued to him in the fall of 2024 — aligning with initial reports on the deployment of DPRK troops to Russia.

The moment one of the two North Korean soldiers was captured by the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces | Image: Ukrainian Special Operations Forces

Some North Korean units underwent one week of training and coordination with Russian forces after arriving in the country before being sent to the Kursk region, he reportedly told the SBU.

Video showing the North Korean soldier with a jaw injury after being captured by Ukrainian paratroopers | Image: 95th Air Assault Brigade via Telegram

Zelensky said the task of capturing DPRK POWs was complicated by the fact that “Russians and other North Korean military personnel eliminate their wounded and do everything possible to erase evidence” of Pyongyang’s involvement in the war.

He added that he had instructed the SBU to grant journalists access to the two North Korean prisoners.

Last month, Zelensky and the NIS announced that several North Korean servicemen were captured by the Ukrainian army in Kursk but subsequently died from their wounds.

Updated at 10:35 p.m. and 11:06 p.m. KST on Jan. 11 with additional details and video. Edited by Alannah Hill

5. Opinion | Why the US will not allow a nuclear-armed South Korea

Does anyone really think that South Korea having its own nuclear weapons lessens the US security burden? What is the US security burden? The flawed fundamental assumption with this is that we are in SOuth korea only to defend South Korea (therefore it is a burne). But what about being in South Korea to serve US interests? And is it not in US interests to prevent war in the region and attacks on the homeland? How would a withdrawal of US troops (to lessen the US "security burden") improve the US defense of the homeland? How would it make north Korea less of a threat to the region, the US, and the world?

We need to be candid and somewhat cold-hearted and describe why we are in South Korea. The number one priority is to serve US security interests. Fortunately US and South Korean interests align in deterring war in the region and preventing a hostile takeover of the South by the communist regime in the north.

On another note, the US and others in the international community will certainly oppose South Korea from obtaining its own nuclear weapons due to the domestic political turmoil and the lack of confidence in nuclear command and crotol that is caused by the domestic political turmoil. Frankly speaking there are those who will argue south korean democracy is not mature enough to command and control nuclear weapons.

Asma Khalid

Opinion | Why the US will not allow a nuclear-armed South Korea

While Seoul’s own nuclear defence would lessen the US security burden, it would also undermine American interests in the Indo-Pacific region

https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3293906/why-us-will-not-allow-nuclear-armed-south-korea?utm_source=rss_feed

Asma Khalid

Published: 5:30am, 12 Jan 2025

As United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited South Korea and Japan on his farewell tour of the region, North Korea fired a ballistic missile that landed in waters between the Korean peninsula and Japan.

Secretary Blinken reaffirmed Washington’s unwavering commitment to defending South Korea, emphasising the importance of enhancing bilateral cooperation and strengthening trilateral collaboration with Japan. In August 2023, President Joe Biden hosted impeached South Korean president Yoon Suk-yeol and former Japanese prime minister Fumio Kishida at Camp David to announce a landmark trilateral security pact aimed at bolstering defence cooperation and regional stability.

However, it appears that South Koreans have qualms about Washington’s “ironclad commitments”. In the most recent issue of Foreign Affairs, South Korea-based political science professors Robert Kelly and Min-Hyung Kim argue that Seoul should have nuclear weapons. They contend that Seoul is highly sceptical about Washington’s commitment to its defence due to fears of what they see as an inevitable conflict with North Korea. They argue the US will never trade San Francisco for Seoul.

Initiatives such as the Washington Declaration and the US–Republic of Korea Nuclear Consultative Group, in which Seoul joins the discussions on Washington’s nuclear policies in East Asia, fall short of addressing South Korean concerns about US commitment during a crisis.

One suggested benefit for the US is that a South Korean nuclear deterrent would relieve the US of direct involvement in potential conflicts with North Korea, lowering the risk of escalation with China and reducing America’s security burden.

However, that is why Washington will never want South Korea to develop its nuclear weapons. The US does not want to relieve South Korea and Japan of their security dependence on the American military.

North Korea launches new hypersonic missile test ahead of Trump’s return to White House

While this might have been considered during the receding years of the Cold War, it is unlikely now given its increasingly adversarial relations with China.

The US maintains a significant military presence in both South Korea and Japan, which forms the cornerstone of its Indo-Pacific Strategy. The US considers its military presence in these countries both as a means of deterrence against North Korea and a counterbalance to China’s growing military power in the region.

The US has about 28,500 troops in South Korea to deter North Korea. Additionally, Washington has around 50,000 troops in Japan, including a large contingent at the Yokosuka Naval base, the headquarters of the US Seventh Fleet. The US considers these military bases as strategic nodes for backstopping its rapid deployment capabilities in response to regional crises. Allowing South Korea and potentially Japan to build nuclear weapons could undermine the rationale for this extensive military presence in the region.

Kelly and Kim also argue that any nuclearisation by South Korea would not induce others in East Asia to do the same. If North Korean nuclear weapons have not led Japan to consider having their own nukes, they say, why would a friendly South Korea?

Military helicopters are parked at US Army base Camp Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, South Korea, on August 9, 2021. Photo: EPA-EFE

But it’s not about fear from others; it’s about creating fear in adversaries. In 2022, Japan made the most significant change to its defence strategy since World War II, citing China’s “unprecedented strategic challenge”. Japan has pledged to double its defence spending to 2 per cent of its gross domestic product, aligning with the standards of Nato. The country has also decided to acquire counterstrike military capabilities.

If Seoul moves to become a nuclear-armed state, it’s conceivable that Tokyo would also acquire atomic weapons to ensure a credible and independent nuclear deterrent. As a result, both nations might view their nuclear capabilities as sufficient deterrence, potentially reducing the need for US forces.

From Washington’s point of view, this would weaken the US’ ability to leverage its military footprint in Asia to counter what it considers China’s dangerous and escalatory actions in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait.

Both Tokyo and Seoul look to the US for policy guidance. However, if they develop their own nuclear deterrent, the balance of power between all three governments will shift dramatically.

South Korea and Japan could become like France and gain greater strategic autonomy in shaping their security policies. Greater strategic autonomy could weaken the asymmetric dependency that has characterised these alliances, in which the US provides advanced military capabilities in exchange for strategic influence.

For example, South Korea could recalibrate its approach to North Korea, possibly seeking greater leverage in inter-Korean negotiations without US mediation. Such developments would undermine the US’ ability to coordinate regional responses to security threats, reducing its overall strategic influence.

There’s also the risk that South Korea and Japan might eventually take charge of their own defence and foreign policies. Since World War II, one of the US’ central strategic objectives in Asia has been ensuring its allies pursue foreign and defence policies that align with American interests. Allowing South Korea or Japan to develop nuclear weapons could empower them to act unilaterally and potentially contradict US policy goals.

Alternatively, they might no longer feel as threatened by China’s military might if they felt that nuclear weapons would deter Beijing from taking military action against them or seizing disputed islands.

By having a credible deterrent, their policies towards China might take a different trajectory than the US’ increasingly confrontational approach. Their strategy might become one of “coopetition” – competing in areas where they can and cooperating in others, similar to China’s foreign policy approach with most US allies.

US defence policymakers don’t want any of that to happen. Washington wants to see these countries follow its lead when it comes to defence and diplomacy in the Indo-Pacific region.

Asma Khalid

Asma Khalid is an independent researcher and former visiting fellow at the Stimson Center. Her areas of interest are nuclear politics and security issues of South Asia. Twitter: @AsmaKhalid_11

6. Elizabeth Shackelford: Plight of South Korea’s democracy has lessons for us

Conclusion:

It’s a shocking spectacle in one of Asia’s strongest democracies. How it plays out will offer lessons, not only for those trying to defend other democracies around the world, but also to those trying to weaken them as well.

Elizabeth Shackelford: Plight of South Korea’s democracy has lessons for us

By Elizabeth Shackelford Chicago Tribune4 min

January 11, 2025

View Original

https://www.chicagotribune.com/2025/01/10/opinion-south-korea-democracy-shackelford/?utm

A president of one major political party is butting heads with a legislature dominated by the other. Recent election cycles pushed the two sides of the political divide so far apart that they can hardly agree on anything anymore. Deadlock ensues, wholly stalling the president’s agenda and thwarting campaign promises. Both sides claim their side is upholding democracy and the other is undermining it, leading each side’s supporters to believe the threat is existential.

This scenario has become the expected in the United States, where an insurrection that occurred four years ago this week revealed just how fragile a democratic system is when one side shamelessly tries to illegally seize power. American democracy prevailed then, though weakened.

South Korea’s democracy is facing a similar test today, but it’s unclear yet if its institutions will hold. Polarization there, too, has helped a political leader rally enough public support to potentially thwart accountability even as he flouts democratic rules and institutions.

As in the United States, polarization in South Korea has been growing unwieldy for years, but President Yoon Suk Yeol, now suspended, is the first president since the country’s democratic transition in the 1980s to rule without his party holding the National Assembly majority. Two years into his five-year term, Yoon has failed to deliver, his approval ratings have plummeted, and he blames his political opponents who control the legislature and don’t support his agenda.

On Dec. 3, Yoon declared martial law, accusing the opposition of “trying to overthrow the free democracy” and sympathizing with North Korea. The army general he appointed as martial law commander quickly banned political activities, protests and independent news media.

The transparent power grab was quickly condemned by Yoon’s friends and foes alike. The leader of his own People Power Party pledged to stop it.

Inside and outside the political system, almost everyone opposed the martial law declaration, which brought back memories of the country’s repressive dictatorship that sparked the demonstrations that led to its democratic transition. Protesters poured into the streets calling for Yoon’s resignation, and lawmakers acted quickly to nullify the decree. It looked like a sign of democratic resilience, even as police and soldiers tried to block the legislators’ access to the National Assembly. Some reportedly had to scale fences and break through barricades to enter the building and participate in the vote.

The lawmakers’ determination was reminiscent of the U.S. Congress’ resolve to certify the election in January 2021. As was the case in the United States, however, that wasn’t enough to ensure accountability that could deter similar attempts in the future.

Within a few hours, Yoon had backed down, but the crisis wasn’t over, with calls for his resignation and impeachment growing. The National Assembly successfully impeached him Dec. 14, accusing him of rebellion, though the outcome now rests in the hands of the country’s Constitutional Court, which is charged with deciding within six months whether to remove Yoon from office. For the time being, he is merely suspended.

Notably, most members of Yoon’s conservative party refused to vote against him, but the opposition was able to persuade enough of them to secure the two-thirds vote needed to block the martial law decree at least.

The attempt at legal accountability, though, has been less successful. The Corruption Investigation Office (CIO) is investigating Yoon for abuse of power and inciting insurrection, along with several members of his cabinet. After Yoon refused multiple summonses to appear for questioning, a Seoul court issued a warrant for his arrest. About 100 police and CIO officers tried to execute that warrant Jan. 3, but 200 presidential guard and military troops loyal to Yoon physically blocked them from reaching him, leading to a six-hour standoff inside Yoon’s compound. Thousands of Yoon supporters protesting outside contributed to the chaos, with some adopting Trump supporters’ “Stop the Steal” slogan. Yoon’s defiance paid off, as he simply waited out the warrant, which expired on Monday.

The CIO persuaded the court to reissue the arrest warrant on Tuesday, but if this round is as futile as the first, Yoon’s attempt to remain above the law will succeed. Is the CIO chief prepared to use force or to take legal action against those officers obstructing arrest? Will he have the political support to do so? Is it worth risking violence to bring in a suspended president for questioning? If it comes to that, how will the public react? These aren’t easy questions to answer.

But the risk of letting obstruction of the rule of law slide at the highest levels is also grave. When bad acts are tolerated, bad actors get worse. If institutions can’t provide checks now, why would we expect them to in the future?

It’s a shocking spectacle in one of Asia’s strongest democracies. How it plays out will offer lessons, not only for those trying to defend other democracies around the world, but also to those trying to weaken them as well.

Elizabeth Shackelford is senior policy director at Dartmouth College’s Dickey Center for International Understanding and a foreign affairs columnist for the Chicago Tribune. She was previously a U.S. diplomat and is the author of “The Dissent Channel: American Diplomacy in a Dishonest Age.”

Submit a letter, of no more than 400 words, to the editor here or email letters@chicagotribune.com.

7. “North Korean troops deployed to Russia are being used as human mine detectors”

Propaganda from Ukraine or South Korea? Likely.

But if true, how does this translate to combat experience that can be used for the future? You do not come back from these types of operations (unless you are well trained in how to detect AND disarm mines).

This is a Google translation of an RFA report.

“North Korean troops deployed to Russia are being used as human mine detectors”

https://www.rfa.org/korean/in_focus/nk_nuclear_talks/north-korean-troops-human-mine-detector-russia-01102025151323.html

WASHINGTON-Cho Jin-woo choj@rfa.org

2025.01.10

A suspected North Korean soldier under attack by Ukrainian forces in Kursk, Russia [Capture from video released by the Ukrainian military]

/Yonhap News

00:00 02:07 /

Anchor : There is a claim that North Korean soldiers are being used as human mine detectors in the Ukrainian war . They are deploying North Korean soldiers in places where mine vehicles are deployed . Reporter Cho Jin-woo reports on the details .

On the 9th , the British daily newspaper The Times reported that the North Korean military, which supports Russia in the Ukraine war, is using a ' meat grinding ' strategy .

This media outlet, citing the testimony of Lieutenant Colonel " Leopard " of the Ukrainian 33rd Separate Assault Battalion " Big Cats " , which recently engaged in combat with North Korea in the village of Makhnovka, Kursk Oblast, Russia, reported that the North Korean military is deploying troops where the Ukrainian military is deploying mine clearance vehicles .

Leopard said North Korean commanders appeared unfazed by the loss of life.

He also testified that North Korean forces only used small arms such as machine guns, grenade launchers, and mortars , and did not use drones .

However, there is also speculation that the North Korean military may adopt drones as the war drags on, as the North Korean military is beginning to learn about drones.

He also explained that although North Korean soldiers are well-trained and physically fit, they are assigned guides to help them navigate their surroundings due to the unfamiliar weather and terrain .

He also testified that his battalion captured one of the Russian guides, but the North Koreans refused to be captured and tried to fight to their death or run away .

Leopard explained that in the village, North Korean soldiers tried to hide in the forest, but Ukrainian thermal imaging cameras easily captured them .

It was also reported that North Korean soldiers were mixed in with Russian troops to hide their identities.

The identity card of the deceased North Korean soldier Jeong Kyung-hong released by the Ukrainian Special Forces. / Ukrainian Special Forces Special Operations Forces (SSO)

“ Possibility of residents being disturbed by news of increased casualties of North Korean troops dispatched to Russia ”

Zelensky “ 4,000 casualties of North Korean troops dispatched to Russia ” Self-criticism of

North Korean troops dispatched “ stole Russian troops’ belongings ”

He said he saw his country's drones drop grenades on them, killing four North Korean soldiers in just 15 minutes , and that the number of casualties in the two-day period alone was 120 .

Radio Free Asia (RFA) has not independently verified this report .

Earlier, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky said that a battle had taken place in the village of Makhnovka on the 4th, during which a battalion of North Korean troops was annihilated .

Editor Park Jeong-woo, Web Editing

8. Acting President Choi calls for bipartisan special counsel to resolve conflict over Yoon's arrest

Acting Prescient Choi exercising prudent leadership.

Acting President Choi calls for bipartisan special counsel to resolve conflict over Yoon's arrest

https://www.chosun.com/english/national-en/2025/01/12/U3TTMX6XP5GKLFKX3E7CCL2MXM/

By Kim Kyeong-pil,

Kim Seo-young

Published 2025.01.12. 15:47

Acting President Choi Sang-mok speaks during a meeting at the government complex in Seoul on Jan. 10. /Newsis

Acting President Choi Sang-mok on Jan. 10 urged the National Assembly to draft a constitutionally sound special counsel bill with bipartisan support, as tensions escalate between the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO) and the Presidential Security Service (PSS) over attempts to arrest President Yoon Suk-yeol. In a message regarding the arrest warrant, Choi said that while the government has been working on a solution, resolving the conflict within the current legal framework is difficult. He stressed that a political agreement on a special prosecutor is necessary to settle the dispute over insurrection investigation authority and avoid violent clashes between public institutions.

Park Jong-joon, head of the PSS, who has been blocking the warrant’s execution, appeared before the police earlier that day and said, “I repeatedly suggested to the acting president that the government intervene to prevent physical clashes or bloodshed, but received no response.” He also added, “The investigation must proceed in a manner befitting a sitting president.” Later, Park submitted his resignation, which Acting President Choi accepted. Choi’s call for a bipartisan special counsel is seen as a response to Park’s final plea for intervention.

However, the Democratic Party criticized the move, claiming that the government is looking for excuses to delay the execution of the arrest warrant and reject the special counsel bill. The Democratic Party passed a revised special counsel bill through the National Assembly’s legislative committee the previous day, using a third-party recommendation method. The party plans to process it in the plenary session next week. The ruling People Power Party dismissed the revised bill as a “mere repackaging of hastily prepared legislation” and said they would negotiate with their own modified version, removing problematic provisions.

9. North Koreans fight over feces as annual ‘compost battle’ begins

We might snicker or turn up our noses in disgust but this is a real fact of life for the Korean people in the north. I have been told by Koreans from the north that they must make their quotas, which is increasingly hard to do for those suffering from malnutrition. Some told me they go to the river beds and scrape mud from the bottom to provide some weight and volume to their contributions.

But we should consider the absolute evil of a government/regime that would inflict this on its people.

This is a Google translation of an RFA report.

North Koreans fight over feces as annual ‘compost battle’ begins

Impossible government quotas make people turn violent as they try to get enough poop to make fertilizer.

https://www.rfa.org/english/korea/2025/01/09/north-korea-annual-manure-battle/

By Son Hyemin for RFA Korean

2025.01.09

Workers shovel manure at a cooperative farm in Kaesong, North Korea. (Yonhap News)

North Koreans are once again fighting each other over human feces as they desperately try to fulfill the government’s impossibly high collection quotas to prepare fertilizer ahead of the spring planting season, residents in the country told Radio Free Asia.

In order to avoid punishment, adults have until Jan. 20 to donate 500 kilograms (1,100 pounds) of compost, which is a code word for feces. Elementary, middle, and high school students’ quota is 200 kilograms (440 pounds).

That’s way more than the 142 kilograms (312 pounds) the average person poops in an entire year, so merchants can make a fortune buying and selling it on the black market, and people resort to stealing it from public bathrooms and each other’s houses.

But that’s often when things turn violent, a a resident of the county in South Pyongan province, north of Pyongyang, told RFA Korean on condition of anonymity for security reasons.

“Two men in Unsan county were fighting each other with axes and shovels and were seriously injured,” he said. “A factory worker was trying to steal feces from an outhouse next to the other guy’s home.”

When he saw the factory worker trying to scoop out the contents of his latrine, the homeowner came out with a shovel and hit him, he said.

“The head of the neighborhood-watch unit brought the social security agent in charge of the neighborhood and the fight ended,” he said. “But both men were taken to the hospital.”

Battles galore

These are the latest known casualties in the annual “compost battle” -- the time each year where people are made to gather materials necessary to make fertilizer, but it’s not intended to be violent.

North Korea often assigns militaristic names to projects requiring participation from the public. For example, there’s a “construction battle” when it’s time to build new homes, and a “harvest battle” every fall.

Though the “combatants” in these battles are overworked, it’s only during the “compost battle” that places them in such cutthroat competition.

Women work on a collective farm in Nampo, South Pyongan province, North Korea. (Yonhap News)

One collected by the farm, dry grass, chaff, and other materials will be added to the poop and it will dry and decompose to become fertilizer.

RFA was not able to confirm the extent of punishment for those who fail to meet their quota.

In another incident, a high schooler was caught scooping up the poop in the public toilet, the resident said. He received a scolding from his community leader.

“The head of the neighborhood watch unit flipped the student’s cart over and shouted at him,” he said. “Then the kid’s mother came out and argued with the watch unit leader, asking if the poop belonged to him. Things escalated and a full blown fight broke out.”

The people have to take their donations to nearby farms and submit a completed compost certificate to their workplace or school, a resident in the northwestern province of North Pyongan told RFA on condition of anonymity to speak freely.

After that, their company or school will add up all the donation certificates and report the amount to their superiors.

North Korea’s newest luxury mall opens IKEA store, apparently without permission

Swedish furniture giant says it has no presence in DPRK, and expert says items on sale were likely intended for China

https://www.nknews.org/2025/01/north-koreas-newest-luxury-mall-opens-ikea-store-apparently-without-permission/

Ifang Bremer January 10, 2025

The Ryugyong Golden Plaza mall (left) and the IKEA themed store inside the mall | Images: Kumsugangsan magazine (Dec. 2023) and Douyin (Dec. 2024)

North Korea’s newest luxury mall is now home to an IKEA store, a video uploaded to China social media suggests, giving wealthy residents of Pyongyang the opportunity to purchase the Swedish giant’s flat-pack furniture for their own homes.

But the store appears to be using the IKEA brand name without permission, as the company told NK News that it has no official presence in the DPRK.

A video uploaded to the social media platform Douyin on Dec. 22 by a Chinese exchange student in Pyongyang shows a sign featuring the signature blue and yellow IKEA logo inside the Ryugyong Golden Plaza mall — a luxury shopping center opened in 2023 — alongside various furniture items on display.

However, the short clip from the Chinese social media user shows the sales area does not resemble typical IKEA stores, which are large warehouses with a maze-like layout displaying themed rooms. Instead, the shop seems to occupy a limited space on one floor of the department store.

In response to NK News questions about whether the firm gave the green light for its products to be sold in North Korea, or if it is aware of the store in the Ryugong Golden Plaza, an IKEA spokesperson stated that “there are no authorized IKEA sales channels in North Korea.”

“Inter IKEA Systems B.V., as the owner of the intellectual property rights in the IKEA Concept including the IKEA Trademarks, is continuously monitoring for infringements of its intellectual property rights and where appropriate takes action,” the spokesperson said. “At this moment, we cannot comment any further.”

The IKEA store in the Ryugyong Golden Plaza mall | Image: Douyin

There are very few Western brands that are active in North Korea, as international sanctions prohibit setting up joint ventures with DPRK entities and severely limit international transactions and the sale of luxury items.

North Korean stores are known to sell and promote Western brands without permission, often bought and smuggled in from third parties in China.

Rowan Beard, a tour operator at Young Pioneer Tours, told NK News that the furniture on sale at the apparent IKEA store was likely intended for sale within China “but had been exported onwards by third parties to Pyongyang to sell department stores for wealthy Koreans.”

The new store at the Ryugong Golden Plaza is not the first time that IKEA furniture has appeared for sale in Pyongyang.

NK News reported in 2018 that the Kwangbok Department Store in the North Korean capital had a showroom where furniture and homeware manufactured by Swedish furniture giant was being sold.

At the time, an IKEA spokesperson told NK News the company was not connected to the Pyongyang store and said that the products were not sold under agreement with IKEA.

Beard noted that the furniture on sale in the Ryugyong Golden Plaza mall may not even be from IKEA, similar to how “the furniture at the IKEA section before in Kwangbok was non-branded furniture but had similar simplistic styles to IKEA furniture.”

The IKEA brand appears to be highly valued in North Korea, as evidenced by a speech from Kim Jong Il, the father of the country’s current leader Kim Jong Un.

In his final published speech in 2011, which he gave during the opening of the refurbished Kwangbok Department Store, Kim Jong Il referenced IKEA and urged the store to carry its goods.

“There are various pieces of furniture in the furniture section, and in these commercial centers, it would be good to sell globally renowned ‘IKEA’ furniture,” Kim said, urging officials to “quickly bring in IKEA furniture production equipment.”

The Ryugyong mall is the newest mall in Pyongyang and covers almost 1 million square feet (87,000 square meters). It appears to boast goods from several Western brands, such as Mont Blanc and Gucci.

However, it remains to be seen if these are official stores of simply third party vendors that are reselling the branded goods.

Edited by Alannah Hill

11. ROK court administrator fined $140K over alleged North Korean data theft

Or an act of commission or omission? Intentionality or incompetence? Witting or useful idiot?

Excerpts:

The press release did not specify the attacker, but the punishment relates to a series of breaches over two years that the police previously linked to North Korean cybercriminals. The frequent cyberattacks between Jan. 2021 and Feb. 2023 reportedly resulted in the theft of 1,014 gigabytes of court materials.

At the time, law enforcement authorities attributed the campaign to the DPRK based on the malware used, payment details for leased servers and overlaps with IP addresses used in previous campaigns. The police did not attribute the attack to a specific threat actor, but South Korean media identified Lazarus Group as the perpetrator.

ROK court administrator fined $140K over alleged North Korean data theft

Watchdog accuses Court Administration Office of allowing citizens’ data to be stolen due to poor cyber hygiene

https://www.nknews.org/2025/01/rok-court-administrator-fined-140k-over-alleged-north-korean-data-theft/

Shreyas Reddy January 9, 2025

North Koreans using computers in Pyongyang | Image: NK News (April 2017)

South Korea’s data protection watchdog has fined the national court administrator over an alleged North Korean breach that resulted in the theft of almost one terabyte of citizens’ personal information.

The Personal Information Protection Commission (PIPC) said in a press release on Thursday that it imposed a fine of approximately $140,000 (207 million won), with an additional $4,100 (6 million won) in penalties, against the Court Administration Office for violating the Personal Information Protection Act.

The press release did not specify the attacker, but the punishment relates to a series of breaches over two years that the police previously linked to North Korean cybercriminals. The frequent cyberattacks between Jan. 2021 and Feb. 2023 reportedly resulted in the theft of 1,014 gigabytes of court materials.

At the time, law enforcement authorities attributed the campaign to the DPRK based on the malware used, payment details for leased servers and overlaps with IP addresses used in previous campaigns. The police did not attribute the attack to a specific threat actor, but South Korean media identified Lazarus Group as the perpetrator.

The incident exposed persistent vulnerabilities in official South Korean networks, which have enabled North Korean cybercriminals to breach the court system, defense ministry, election commission and other government bodies in recent years.

An analysis of 4.7 gigabytes of files revealed the hackers acquired personal data of ROK citizens including their names, resident registration numbers, contact numbers and addresses, as well as identifying information such as ages, genders and dates of birth, according to the PIPC press release.

The data analyzed amounted to less than 0.5% of what was stolen, but even this miniscule fraction represented 17,998 cases of personal data theft.

The data protection watchdog found that the court administration office did not properly encrypt records containing the resident registration numbers while uploading them to online storage.

The investigation also revealed the court administrator practiced poor cyber hygiene by not using antivirus software and setting weak passwords, confirming local media reports last year that personnel seldom changed their insecure passwords.

The PIPC highlighted the Court Administration Office’s failure to report the leakage of personal data before Dec. 2023, despite having discovered the breaches eight months earlier.

The data protection body emphasized the need for public institutions processing a large quantity of personal information to take safety measures such as operating and regularly updating security programs and constantly monitoring systems to block unauthorized access attempts.

Edited by Alannah Hill

12. Kim Jong Un Welcomes Donald J. Trump to Second Term

I find a lot to disagree with from Robert Carlin and Sigfried Hecker. But this excerpt succinctly makes some of the points I have been trying to make for years. We have been misunderstanding the "strategic decision to go to war" for decades. It is outlined in its Constitution and party documents. It must complete the revolution in Korea and that means domination over the entire peninsula. What they are describing is not new. We have failed to heed regime pronouncements and writings for decades.

A strategic decision to go to war is not the same as a war plan, nor does it necessarily imply imminence of hostilities. Rather, we viewed it as a decision for patient, calculated preparations in three main areas: building up military strength; lulling, distracting, and befuddling the enemy; and bolstering the patriotic fervor of the civilian population for eventual sacrifice.

I would have added subverting the enemy. The use of subversion is a key element of the regime's political warfare strategy, There is a Yin Yang between the political warfare strategy/balkan mail diplomacy and the preparations for war. They are mutually supportive and reinforcing. Ultimately we have to understand that the only straic objective is domination of the Korean peninsula to ensure the survival of the regime.

The draft letter from Kim to Trump is amusing. But I do not think Kim will agree to talks without first receiving major concessions from Trump. He has been burned (ironically as Trump has) and thereful will not come to talk for talking's sake or because of any respect for the diplomatic process. But I doubt that Trump will offer any concessions that would entice Kim to negotiate (and even if or when he does negotiate we must recognize that he will never negotiate in good faith).

Kim Jong Un Welcomes Donald J. Trump to Second Term

https://www.38north.org/2025/01/kim-jong-un-welcomes-donald-j-trump-to-second-term/

By: Robert L. Carlin and Siegfried S. Hecker
January 10, 2025

A year ago on these pages we warned that Kim Jong Un had made a “strategic decision to go to war.” Many interpreted this to mean that we were predicting an imminent attack and since over the past year no war has broken out, they argue that the warning we sounded was mistaken. We disagree. A strategic decision to go to war is not the same as a war plan, nor does it necessarily imply imminence of hostilities. Rather, we viewed it as a decision for patient, calculated preparations in three main areas: building up military strength; lulling, distracting, and befuddling the enemy; and bolstering the patriotic fervor of the civilian population for eventual sacrifice.

To list only a few developments which could be seen in one of the above:

Kim’s emphasis on defense industries;
His calls for “war preparations;”
His appearances at both a uranium enrichment facility and strategic missile bases;
Further development, testing, and deployment of new tactical and strategic systems—often with Kim in attendance;
Declaring the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea or DPRK) a separate state;
Dispatching DPRK troops to Ukraine, likely at Kim’s initiative.

Each of these by itself might not be so alarming but seen together they suggest a strategy—a coherent plan rather than mere episodic efforts to “gain attention.” If Kim offered sending North Korean troops to Ukraine rather than responding to a request from Russia’s President Putin, that fits with a long-term effort to prepare his army for hostilities. In declaring the DPRK a separate state apart from South Korea (ROK), Kim explicitly laid the groundwork for justifying the use of force against the ROK.

All of this could be seen as a worst-case scenario, but at this point, it is certainly no less likely than the alternatives. Ultimately it will be up to governments to decide and prepare—or not. The greatest danger is still, as we asserted a year ago, that Washington and Seoul cling to the belief their alliance backed by “ironclad” deterrence will stop Kim from military action, and that he would never attack for fear of being destroyed.

Potentially, a development that could be interpreted as Kim stepping back from his frequent calls for war preparations is his stated goal for massively redeveloping provincial and local economies. On the surface, this would seem to be incompatible with war preparations, certainly in the short-term. In our view, if this new push on local economic development goes hand-in-hand with a clear diminution of emphasis on the military—which we have yet to see—and a revival of the internal debate over military spending (evidence for which will be hard to read in any case) these might signal new decisions in Pyongyang.

The Trump Factor

There is considerable speculation about how President Trump will deal with Kim a second time around—and how Kim may respond. On the campaign trail, Trump said, “Kim Jong-un [is] very smart, very tough, but he liked me, and I got along really well with him, and we were safe.”

Trump and his team must realize, however, that if Kim keeps the door to engagement with the US a crack open, it leads to a very different room from where things were in February 2019. Kim’s goals have changed, his sense of North Korea’s place in the world has changed, and his view of the long-term weakness of the US has changed. We agree that re-engagement could be a serious effort on Kim’s behalf, but it could also be a deception to buy more time for war preparations.

Kim may preempt Trump by resuming his letter writing to make sure Trump understands that it’s a new room he is about to enter. We pen such a hypothetical Kim-to-Trump letter based on our understanding of the situation on the Korean Peninsula.

January 20, 2025Dear Mr. President:

I write to you after a long silence. Much has happened over the years since we last met, and it will be good to explore what that means before we consider whether it is useful to begin anew serious contact. I know you will agree that if we are to engage with any hope of fruitful results, this will have to start from an entirely new place. The past is past. Let us not be burdened by it but look ahead.

To be frank, the chasm between our countries has widened and deepened. I fear there is nothing to be done to bridge the gap anymore. If you think otherwise, I will of course listen to your views.

Let me lay out what I see.

For a long time, we in the DPRK knew the world to be a dangerous place, with untrustworthy neighbors prepared to squeeze us to death. In such a situation, the logical course was to pursue relations with the United States which, at the time of the collapse of the USSR and the Eastern bloc, was the preeminent force on the world stage.

We are a practical people; we see reality for what it is. What we see today and what we saw then are worlds apart. The United States is no longer preeminent. And after so many years of effort, in which we sacrificed much and compromised often, we have become convinced those years were wasted. The United States thought we were gullible, that we would sacrifice our honor for a handful of candy, and that once weakened it could smash us apart, wipe us off the face of the earth as it has done time after time to other countries. But we did not yield. And we will not. Though it would cost us dearly, we are prepared for an inevitable, final struggle. I hope it will not come to that, but we will not turn away if it does.

You will note that I have declared the DPRK a separate, sovereign state totally apart from the ROK. This was a painful decision but not as strange as it might first seem. Although we are one people, for centuries we were divided into separate kingdoms. Eventually, the strongest of them conquered the others. I’m sure recent events in South Korea have been very troubling to you.

To speak honestly about our previous exchange of correspondence, it accomplished little. Though they contained serious ideas, my letters were mocked and belittled in your media. One message I sought to reinforce to you over and over was that I cannot simply give, give, give. I must have something concrete to show my people. You must as well. On that basis, we should have been able to make progress. It did not come to pass. There were consequences from failure. We have formed a strategic alliance with Russia, and we are much stronger today in every respect than we were then. And we will become stronger still, of that you can be assured.

To be clear, we are both the leaders of nuclear-weapons states. We are not friends, though we can respect each other and, perhaps, work together to solve pressing regional and global problems. I give you fair warning—we cannot be brow beaten; we are not dogs who can be trained to heel. As you treat us, so we will treat you.

I look forward to your views.

Such a letter would allow Kim to let Trump know that he is still interested in talking, but the ball is now in Trump’s court, and the court itself has changed.

13. Black box from South Korea plane crash did not record final 4 minutes, officials say

Oh no. This is a terrible development.

I am jumping to the conclusion - How can this happen? Are there past examples of the black box(es) failing to record the last minutes for a flight? Did this happen deliberately? Does that then make us jump the concussion of possible sabotage? However, I think probably not as there might be other ways to bring down the plane and it still seems from all the reports that there may unfortunately have been some pilot error or at least missed opportunities to bring down the plane in a more controlled and survivable manner.

Black box from South Korea plane crash did not record final 4 minutes, officials say

CBS News

The black boxes of the passenger jetliner that crashed in South Korea last month killing 179 people stopped recording about four minutes before the crash, South Korean officials said Saturday.

After analyzing the devices, the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board concluded that both the flight data and cockpit voice recorders stopped working about four minutes before the crash, the South Korean Transportation Ministry said.

The Boeing 737-800 operated by Jeju Air skidded off a runway in the South Korean town of Muan on Dec. 29 after its landing gear failed to deploy, slamming into a concrete structure and bursting into flames, killing all but two of the 181 people on board.

Rescue team members work at the site of a plane crash at Muan International Airport in Muan, South Korea on Dec. 31, 2024. Ahn Young-joon / AP

South Korean officials also sent the black boxes to the NTSB for closer examination after discovering that some of the data was missing.

The transportation ministry said it wasn't immediately clear why the devices failed to record data in the last four minutes.

"Data from the CVR ( cockpit voice recorder) and FDR (flight data recorder) are crucial in investigating accidents, but such investigations are conducted through the examination and analysis of various sources of information, and we plan to do our utmost to determine the cause of the accident," the ministry said in a statement.

South Korean investigators have said that air traffic controllers warned the pilot about possible bird strikes two minutes before the aircraft issued a distress signal confirming that a bird strike had occurred, after which the pilot attempted an emergency landing.

After the crash, authorities immediately ordered an inspection of all 737-800 aircraft operated by the country's airlines – dozens of planes in total – after the crash.

South Korean officials have also pledged to improve airport safety after experts linked the high death toll to Muan airport's localizer system, the structure hit by the aircraft as it crashed. The localizer, a set of antennas designed to guide aircraft during landings, was housed in a concrete structure covered with dirt on an elevated embankment. This has raised questions about whether the structure should have been built with lighter materials that would break more easily upon impact.

CBS News

14. N.K. soldier captured by Ukraine says he thought was going to training, not war: Kyiv

All warfare is based on depiction.

Does that mean deceiving your own troops? (assuming these reports are accurate).

However, this would be useful for psychological warfare against the nKPA. We can exploit this to create suspicion of all orders from the nKPA leadership. Every time they deploy for training they will have to wonder whether they are really going to fight for Putin in Putin's war in Ukraine

(LEAD) N.K. soldier captured by Ukraine says he thought was going to training, not war: Kyiv | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · January 12, 2025

(ATTN: UPDATES with NIS' confirmation in paras 9-10, 12)

SEOUL, Jan. 12 (Yonhap) -- One of the two North Korean soldiers captured by Ukraine has claimed during questioning that he thought he was going for training, not to the war against Ukraine, Kyiv's security service has said.

On Saturday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine has captured two wounded North Korean soldiers in Russia's western Kursk region and that investigators were questioning them.

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said it has questioned the two soldiers through Korean interpreters in cooperation with South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) as they do not speak Ukrainian, Russian or English.

A wounded soldier, suspected to be North Korean and captured by Ukrainian forces, is seen in this photo posted on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's Telegram on Jan. 11, 2025. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

It said that one of the soldiers had a Russian military identification card in the name of another person registered in Russia. The soldier said he was given the document last autumn when he said some North Korean units took part in a one-week training event with Russian forces.

"It is noteworthy that the prisoner ... emphasizes that he was allegedly going for training, not to fight a war against Ukraine," the SBU said in a release.

The North Korean with the Russian military ID said he was born in 2005 and has been serving in the North Korean military since 2021. The other was born in 1999 and has been serving since 2016 as a scout sniper, the SBU said, citing preliminary information.

The SBU also released video footage appearing to show the two captured men -- both of them in bandages from apparent wounds.

"Immediately after being captured, the foreigners were provided with all the necessary medical care," it said. "They are being held in appropriate conditions that meet the requirements of international law."

The South Korean spy agency later confirmed Ukraine's capture of the two soldiers, also quoting one of them as saying that there have been "considerable" casualties among North Korean soldiers in Russia.

"(We) will continue to share information related to the North Korean prisoners in close cooperation with Ukraine's intelligence authorities," the NIS said, adding that the injured soldiers are not in any critical condition.

North Korea is estimated to have sent some 11,000 troops to support Russia in its war against Ukraine, according to South Korean officials.

The NIS told lawmakers here last month that at least 100 North Koreans have been killed, with around 1,000 others injured.

yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · January 12, 2025

15. Yoon's lawyer says president to be absent from first formal hearing in impeachment trial

(4th LD) Yoon's lawyer says president to be absent from first formal hearing in impeachment trial | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kang Yoon-seung · January 12, 2025

(ATTN: ADDS more details in last 2 paras)

SEOUL, Jan. 12 (Yonhap) -- President Yoon Suk Yeol will not attend the first formal hearing in his impeachment trial this week out of concerns for his safety, his lawyer said Sunday.

Yun Gap-geun, Yoon's defense attorney, made the announcement as the Constitutional Court will hold the first oral arguments on Yoon's impeachment trial on Tuesday, while investigators are seeking to detain the impeached president for questioning in a separate case related to his short-lived martial law imposition.

Yun Gap-keun (C), a lawyer of impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol, speaks during a press conference in Seoul on Jan. 8, 2025. (Yonhap)

"As attempts to unlawfully execute an illegal and invalid arrest warrant are under way, there are concerns of personal safety and mishap," Yun said. "In order for the president to appear for the trial, the issue of personal safety and security must be resolved."

Yun said the impeached president will attend his trial if such issues are resolved.

The Constitutional Court earlier said it would start oral arguments for the trial on Tuesday, with a total of five hearing sessions scheduled until Feb. 4.

Yoon's lawyers have previously said the president will attend his impeachment trial at an "appropriate" time to make his case.

Should Yoon fail to show up for the hearing on Tuesday, the court will be required to end the session and convene again Thursday for a second session, which then can proceed even in Yoon's absence.

Investigators earlier sought to detain Yoon but failed after an hourslong standoff with the Presidential Security Service. They are widely expected to stage a second attempt to detain him after a Seoul court granted an extension of the warrant last week.

Separately, the president's lawyers visited the office of the state anti-corruption agency investigating Yoon on Sunday to deliver a notice of their appointment as Yoon's legal representatives.

During the visit, the lawyers reportedly stressed the need for talks to prevent a physical clash between the police and the presidential security service in their expected attempt to detain Yoon.

In a social media post, National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-shik said "It would be best for the president to step forward voluntarily."

"The president should no longer hide behind the Presidential Security Service and step forward to face the law, which is the least he can do for the people," Woo said.

The Constitutional Court in central Seoul is seen in this photo taken Jan. 8, 2025. (Yonhap)

yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kang Yoon-seung · January 12, 2025

16. HD Hyundai Heavy begins project to build 4 warships for Peruvian Navy

South Korea: Another example of it being a partner in the Arsenal of Democracy.

HD Hyundai Heavy begins project to build 4 warships for Peruvian Navy | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Na-young · January 12, 2025

SEOUL, Jan. 12 (Yonhap) -- HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co., a major South Korean shipbuilder, said Sunday it has officially begun its joint project with Peru's state-owned shipyard to build four warships for the Peruvian Navy.

HD Hyundai Heavy and SIMA Peru S.A. will cooperate for the 640.6 billion-won (US$434.4 million) project to deliver the warships to the Peruvian Navy successively from next year, according to the Korean company.

This photo provided by HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co. on Jan. 12, 2025, shows the groundbreaking ceremony of the Korean company's joint project with SIMA Peru S.A. to build four warships for the Peruvian Navy, held at SIMA's shipyard. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

The Korean shipbuilder said it will share its advanced technologies and experience with SIMA for the project. The warships will be constructed at SIMA's shipyard in Peru.

"We will strive to successfully implement this project based on our technology and mutual trust so that defense cooperation between the two countries can be further strengthened," said Joo Won-ho, chief operating officer at the naval and special ship business unit of HD Hyundai Heavy, during a groundbreaking ceremony of the project.

Peruvian President Dina Boluarte said the project marks an important milestone in the history of the country's shipbuilding industry, adding it will contribute to the country's economic growth, as well as the modernization of its navy.

Last year, HD Hyundai Heavy also signed a memorandum of understanding with SIMA to jointly develop a submarine for the Peruvian Navy.

nyway@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Na-young · January 12, 2025

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

Access NSS HERE

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