Quotes of the Day:
"The greatness of America lies not in being more enlightened than any other nation, but rather in her ability to repair her faults."
- Alexis de Tocqueville
“The alternate domination of one faction over another, sharpened by the spirit of revenge, natural to party dissension, which in different ages and countries has perpetrated the most horrid enormities, is itself a frightful despotism.”
- George Washington
“How strangely will the Tools of a Tyrant pervert the plain Meaning of Words!”
-- Samuel Adams
1. N. Korea announces firing of 2 train-borne guided missiles into East Sea
2. U.S. reaffirms security commitment to S. Korea following NK missile tests
3. North warns of upping the ante after latest U.S. sanctions
4. US accusing Russia of helping North Korea develop its nuclear missile program — diplomat
5. Firing Drill of Railway-borne Missile Regiment Held
6. Biden thanks Korean immigrants for contributing to U.S. prosperity
7. Few Signs of Production at Sunchon Fertilizer Plant
8. Korea, U.S. to Put off Joint Drills Until April
9. Biden strategy on North Korea under pressure over missile launches
10. Candidates for North Korean leadership bodyguard unit must be four centimeters taller than last year
11. Update on North Korean Human Rights on the First Anniversary of the Biden Inauguration
12. North Korea Says It Fired Railway-Borne Missiles in Friday Drill
13. Talking about talks with North Korea
1. N. Korea announces firing of 2 train-borne guided missiles into East Sea
The missile train is back. I wonder if our aviators are practicing their attack tactics for this target. I am sure they would have a field day with this.
(3rd LD) N. Korea announces firing of 2 train-borne guided missiles into East Sea | Yonhap News Agency
(ATTN: UPDATES throughout)
By Song Sang-ho
SEOUL, Jan. 15 (Yonhap) -- North Korea said Saturday its railway-based missile regiment conducted a firing drill a day earlier, with two tactical guided missiles hitting a set target in the East Sea.
The North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported the unit in North Pyongan Province bordering China staged the drill aimed at "checking and judging the proficiency" in its action procedures.
It marks the North's second known missile test using a railway launch platform since the last one in September, and the country's third show of force this year.
"The regiment received a firepower mission at short notice from the General Staff in the morning on Friday before swiftly moving to the firing ground, and precisely struck the set target in the East Sea of Korea with two tactical guided missiles," the KCNA said.
The unit's combat posture "demonstrated high maneuverability and rate of hits in the drill was highly appreciated," the KCNA said.
"The issues were discussed to set up proper railway-borne missile operating system across the country and to find out ways for further completing our style fighting methods with the railway-borne missiles," it added.
The drill was supervised by commanding officers of the Korean People's Army and leading officials of the Academy of Defense Science, according to the KCNA. It did not mention whether leader Kim Jong-un attended it.
South Korea's military said Friday that the North's latest projectiles, launched from Uiju in the province, flew around 430 kilometers at an altitude of 36 km and at a top speed of Mach 6, six times the speed of sound.
Observers say the missiles appear to be the KN-23 type modeled after Russia's Iskander mobile ballistic missile.
The KN-23 missile is known to employ a so-called pull-up maneuver over the course of its flight -- a technique designed to avoid interception and thus complicate South Korea's missile defense efforts.
After the train-borne missile test in September, the North said its railway-based missile regiment is meant to "increase the capability of dealing an intensive multi-concurrent blow at the forces posing threats to us."
Friday's firing drill underscores the North's efforts to diversify launch platforms under a scheme to enhance the survivability of its missiles and make their detection more difficult.
The North's latest saber-rattling came after it warned of a "stronger and certain reaction" to the United States' recent imposition of fresh sanctions on six North Koreans involved in the regime's weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile programs.
Pyongyang fired what it purports to be a hypersonic missile on Jan. 5 and Tuesday, in an apparent continued quest for the development of new advanced weapons amid a deadlock in nuclear talks with Washington.
sshluck@yna.co.kr
(END)
2. U.S. reaffirms security commitment to S. Korea following NK missile tests
Strategic reassurance and strategic resolve. The question some pundits ask, given the Moon administration's views on north Korea, is whether the ROK has the same level of commitment to its defense. (I believe the military and the people do but the administration's actions toward north Korea make some question it - but as the saying goes we cannot want it more than our ally or partner).
Excerpt:
Blinken "highlighted the importance of continued U.S.-ROK-Japan trilateral cooperation, and stressed that U.S. commitment to the defense of the ROK remains ironclad," referring to the acronym for South Korea's official name.
(LEAD) U.S. reaffirms security commitment to S. Korea following NK missile tests | Yonhap News Agency
(ATTN: UPDATES with more details, comments in paras 5-12; CHANGES headline, lead, dateline)
WASHINGTON/SEOUL, Jan. 14 (Yonhap) -- U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken condemned North Korea's recent missile tests as a violation of multiple U.N. Security Council resolutions and reaffirmed the "ironclad" security commitment to South Korea, the State Department said Friday (U.S. time).
In a phone call with South Korean Foreign Minister Chung Eui-yong, Blinken reaffirmed the bilateral alliance is "the linchpin of peace, security, and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond," according to the department's statement.
Blinken "highlighted the importance of continued U.S.-ROK-Japan trilateral cooperation, and stressed that U.S. commitment to the defense of the ROK remains ironclad," referring to the acronym for South Korea's official name.
The phone conversation came shortly after Pyongyang said it fired two tactical guided missiles into the East Sea the previous day, the third missile test this month.
The top diplomats also discussed ways to restart the Korean peace process and urged the North to accept their efforts to resume talks, Seoul's foreign ministry said.
Denuclearization talks between Pyongyang and Washington have been stalled since their Hanoi summit ended without a deal in February 2019.
The U.S. has repeatedly said it remains open to dialogue without preconditions, but the North has not responded to its overture.
Following two launches of what the North claims to be hypersonic missiles, the Joe Biden administration on Wednesday blacklisted six North Koreans involved in its weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile programs.
Washington is also pushing the U.N. Security Council to impose additional sanctions on the North for its six ballistic missiles since September last year, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the U.S. ambassador to the U.N., said.
In response, the Kim Jong-un regime warned of a "stronger and certain reaction" if Washington helped impose more sanctions over its recent series of missile tests.
The reclusive regime is already subject to a wide web of U.N. Security Council sanctions for its nuclear and long-range missile tests, which ban it from making any launch using ballistic missile technology.
It remains unclear whether the U.N. council will reach a consensus on adding sanctions on Pyongyang especially as two permanent members -- China and Russia -- have veto power.
ejkim@yna.co.kr
(END)
3. North warns of upping the ante after latest U.S. sanctions
No need to be afraid of north Korean actions. And we must not back down in the face of this rhetoric. Time for Kim's pair of twos to lose the game.
Friday
January 14, 2022
North warns of upping the ante after latest U.S. sanctions
North Korea test-fires a hypersonic missile on Tuesday, as seen in a photo released by its official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) Wednesday. North Korea’s Foreign Ministry on Friday berated the United States for imposing fresh sanctions over its latest missile tests, warning of a “stronger” reaction. It later launched two short-range missiles. [KCNA]
North Korea fired two suspected short-range ballistic missiles toward the East Sea Friday afternoon, said South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS).
The JCS said the projectiles were launched from Uiju in North Pyongan Province, bordering China, and flew around 430 kilometers eastward at an altitude of 36 kilometers. The South Korean military detected the first missile at 2:41 p.m and the other at 2:52 p.m.
The missiles flew at a top speed of around Mach 6, or six times the speed of sound, according to the military.
South Korean and U.S. intelligence authorities are conducting a detailed analysis for further information, said the JCS.
South Korea's National Security Council (NSC) later expressed "strong regret" over the North's repeated missile launches after an emergency meeting convened by Suh Hoon, director of the Blue House National Security Office.
This marks the North's third missile test this year.
North Korea's Foreign Ministry warned Friday morning it will have to take "stronger" action if the United States adopts a "confrontational stance," following Washington's latest sanctions over its recent missile launches.
A spokesperson for the North's Foreign Ministry said in a statement carried by its official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), "The U.S. is coming out provocative again, finding fault with the DPRK's exercise of its right to self-defense."
The DPRK is the acronym for the North's full name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
"If the U.S. adopts such a confrontational stance, the DPRK will be forced to take stronger and certain reaction to it," added the spokesperson, without specifying further.
On Jan. 5 and Tuesday, North Korea conducted what it claimed to be successful hypersonic missile tests.
The North's state media Wednesday reported that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un had supervised the previous day the test-fire of a new hypersonic glide vehicle which hit a target 1,000 kilometers (621 miles) away. It added that it had been the "final verification" of the maneuverability of a hypersonic glide vehicle.
Hours later, the Joe Biden administration Wednesday implemented its first sanctions on Pyongyang over a series of ballistic missile tests since September last year, blacklisting seven individuals and one Russian entity thought to be involved in procuring goods for the North's weapons of mass destruction (WMD) program from Russia and China.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that the United States "will use every appropriate tool" to address the North's WMD and ballistic missile programs. However, he stressed that the Biden administration remains "committed to seeking dialogue and diplomacy" and called on Pyongyang to "engage in negotiations."
"The DPRK's recent development of new-type weapons was just part of its efforts for modernizing its national defense capability," said the North Korean Foreign Ministry spokesperson. "It did not target any specific country or force and it did not do any harm to the security of neighboring countries."
The spokesperson accused the United States of "intentionally escalating the situation" through the implementation of unilateral sanctions, "not content with referring the DPRK's just activity to the UN Security Council."
The spokesperson added, "This shows that though the present U.S. administration is trumpeting about diplomacy and dialogue, it is still engrossed in a policy [of] isolating and stifling the DPRK."
Accusing Washington of "gangster-like logic," the spokesperson stressed that North Korea "will not abandon its just right" to bolster up its national defense capabilities, stressing it is the "legitimate right of a sovereign state."
The remarks appear to give an answer to Washington's offers of unconditional dialogue to resume denuclearization negotiations that have been at an impasse since 2019.
Blinken said in an interview on MSNBC Thursday about the latest missile launches, "I think some of this is North Korea trying to get attention."
The Biden administration has "waited to see if they are prepared to engage," said Blinken, noting that "not only has there been no response to those overtures," but the response has been in recent weeks "renewed missile tests, something that is profoundly destabilizing."
The United States is "deeply engaged both at the UN and with key partners," including South Korea and Japan, "on a response," he added.
The United States is proposing additional sanctions on the North in the 15-member UN Security Council over its recent missile launches, though it is unclear if other veto-wielding members China and Russia will agree.
BY SARAH KIM [kim.sarah@joongang.co.kr]
4. US accusing Russia of helping North Korea develop its nuclear missile program — diplomat
From TASS. Russia doth protest too much.
US accusing Russia of helping North Korea develop its nuclear missile program — diplomat
MOSCOW, January 14. /TASS/. The United States is bandying about "invented and groundless" accusations of Russia’s helping North Korea in the development of its nuclear missile program, Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Friday.
Zakharova’s words followed the US Department of State’s statement about the alleged involvement of Russian national Roman Alar and the company Parsek in supplies of components and technologies for North Korea’s nuclear program.
"The United States is seeking to replace facts with fantasy, is hurling invented and groundless accusations that Russia is helping North Korea develop its nuclear missile program," she said.
5. Firing Drill of Railway-borne Missile Regiment Held
The regime's statement on the latest test launch.
Does this mean the system is fielded and operational?
Firing Drill of Railway-borne Missile Regiment Held
Pyongyang, January 15 (KCNA) -- A firing drill for checking and judging the proficiency in the action procedures of the railway-borne missile regiment of North Phyongan Province took place on Friday.
It was supervised by commanding officers of the Korean People's Army and leading officials of the Academy of Defence Science.
The drill was aimed at checking the alert posture of the combatants of the regiment and bolstering their ability of discharging firepower mission.
The regiment received a firepower mission at short notice from the General Staff in the morning on Friday before swiftly moving to the firing ground, and precisely struck the set target in the East Sea of Korea with two tactical guided missiles.
The combat posture of the railway-borne missile regiment of North Phyongan Province which demonstrated high maneuverability and rate of hits in the drill was highly appreciated in the review and the issues were discussed to set up proper railway-borne missile operating system across the country and to find out ways for further completing our style fighting methods with the railway-borne missiles. -0-
6. Biden thanks Korean immigrants for contributing to U.S. prosperity
Biden thanks Korean immigrants for contributing to U.S. prosperity
Posted January. 15, 2022 07:47,
Updated January. 15, 2022 07:47
Biden thanks Korean immigrants for contributing to U.S. prosperity. January. 15, 2022 07:47. weappon@donga.com.
U.S. President Joe Biden sent a congratulatory letter to Korean Americans on the occasion of Korean Americans’ Day on Thursday. The day was designed by the Congress in 2005 to commemorate January 13, 1903 when 102 Koreans landed in American soil for the first time in history to work at sugarcane farms in Hawaii.
According to the Korean American Grassroots Conference, President Biden said in his letter, “On this date in 1903, pioneering Korean immigrants arrived in Hawaii and opened a new chapter to great history, and contributed to America’s development, power and prosperity,” adding that they have played a role in strengthening the South Korea-U.S. alliance, a cornerstone for world peace and prosperity. Biden also emphasized Korean Americans have made contributions to transforming America into a country of unlimited potential despite discrimination and hardships including COVID-19.
7. Few Signs of Production at Sunchon Fertilizer Plant
One reason why they have to shift to human waste for fertilizer.
Few Signs of Production at Sunchon Fertilizer Plant
The creation of an advanced chemical industry in North Korea would enable it to reduce its reliance on foreign imports of oil, plastics, fertilizers and raw materials, and boost domestic production of a wide range of essential chemicals for industry and agriculture. Developing the C1 chemical industry has been a high priority for Kim Jong Un, highlighted in his speeches since 2016.[1]
The Sunchon Phosphatic Fertilizer Factory (순천린비료공장), at the time of its opening in May 2020, was showcased as signifying progress on that effort.[2] Increasing domestic fertilizer production is especially important these days, with prolonged border closures raising the country’s dependence on domestic food production. However, questions have been raised about the operational status of the complex over the past two years, and recent commercial satellite imagery indicates the main processing plant is likely still not fully operational. These observations are consistent with statements in North Korean state media of continued problems at the factory.
Figure 1. Overview of Sunchon Phosphatic Fertilizer Factory.
Satellite image © 2022 Maxar Technologies. All rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Signs of a Slow Start
In April 2021, a year after the factory was declared open, 38 North reported that production appeared to still be in the early stages.
While some raw materials such as ore and coal were delivered to the site, smoke—an indicator of ongoing operations at key processing components—was not observed until October 2020. Moreover, the Sunchon Fertilizer Factory was notably missing from state media reporting of the 80-day production campaign results that year.[3] Such reports typically trumpet production successes at major plants; omitting this showcase plant all-but confirmed problems.
Admission of Problems
In July 2021, there were two state media reports that confirmed problems with plant operations.
The first, in Arirang Meari, disclosed that scientists from the Institute of Inorganic Chemistry at the Hamhung Branch of the State Academy of Sciences were sent to the plant to try and solve problems preventing full production.
In the fertilizer production process, a phosphate-bearing mineral is treated with sulfuric acid resulting in phosphoric acid. The phosphoric acid is then converted to ammonium phosphate with urea. It appears the problem exists in the latter stage of this process, although typically this should be a simple, well-established step.
When the factory was opened, display boards at the site showed the factory uses two different processes for fertilizer production: a wet and a dry process. The problem could lie in either of these processes, and it is possible North Korean researchers are using a non-standard or new process.
Whatever the reason, later the same month, Premier Kim Tok Hun visited the plant as part of a trip to the Sunchon area. A state media report on his visit concluded with a single line reporting that Kim “discussed and took measures to resolve the comprehensive issues arising in normalizing the production at the Sunchon Phosphatic Fertilizer Factory.”[4]
Since those disclosures, the media has been silent on work at the plant while reporting other factories, including the Namhung Youth Chemical Complex and Hungnam Fertilizer Complex, meeting or overfulfilling production targets.[5]
Satellite Imagery Clues
Satellite imagery collected during the summer and into winter of 2021 indicated some activity at the site throughout this period, including the movement of raw materials and smoke emissions coming from each of the major production areas at the complex.
However, the activity was below the level expected for a plant that is in full continuous operations. While the smoke indicated each of the major components of the production process had been operating, they don’t appear to have been working at the same time. For example, on December 17, the shadow of smoke coming from a stack in the main processing area can be clearly seen, but there is no visible smoke emanating from the other stacks.
On December 3, an image taken after a recent snowfall revealed the roof of the main processing building remained snow covered. If production was taking place, the internal heat generation would have caused at least some snow melt, especially as other buildings around the main production area exhibited snow melt.
Roads around most of the site were cleared of snow; however, this appeared to be still in process on the southern side of the complex around the ore piles. One of the ore piles showed signs of use, although vehicle tracks headed to a large building that sits alone on the site rather than the main production area.
Figure 2. Close up of snow-covered main processing and production areas.
Satellite image © 2022 Maxar Technologies. All rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
On December 3 and 17, a set of railway tank cars was parked alongside a building in the main production area. Tank cars are used to bring in necessary chemicals such as sulfuric acid and ammonium. It is possible they were moved and returned to the same position, but if they have not moved (which is more likely), it is further evidence of the low level of activity at the site.
Other Fertilizer Plants
Although the Sunchon Fertilizer Factory is not yet running at full operations, the state has continued to push for increased production at the country’s two other major fertilizer production sites: the Hungnam Fertilizer Complex and the Namhung Youth Chemical Complex.
In July 2021, state media reported that both plants fulfilled their production quotas for the season. A month later, work began on expanding production at Hungnam Fertilizer Complex, and an October report said a new ammonia production process had been completed.[6] In December, Premier Kim Tok Hun called for production to be increased again at Namhung Youth Chemical Complex during a visit there.[7] On January 6, 2022, state media reported the Hungnam Fertilizer Complex was already working to meet production goals set at the recent party plenary meeting.[8]
In addition to technical problems at the North’s key fertilizer production facilities, the country still depends on the import of several raw materials for fertilizer production, such as urea. A global shortage of urea coupled with North Korea’s continued border closure represent just a few of the new challenges North Korea faces in trying to increase its self-sufficiency.
Additional research by Joanne Lee.
- [1]
In simple terms, C1 chemistry involves converting carbon compounds into other useful products that can have a variety of uses ranging from synthetic fuels to key industrial chemicals and fertilizers for agricultural use. Nearby anthracite mines provide a source for high-quality coal for the C1 industry. See also: “Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un’s Report to the Seventh Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea on the Work of the Central Committee (Full Text),” KCNA, June 20, 2016.
- [2]
“Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un Cuts Tape for Completion of Sunchon Phosphatic Fertilizer Factory,” KCNA, May 2, 2020.
- [3]
“Their 80-Day Campaign Goals Achieved Successively,” Rodong Sinmun, December 12, 2020.
- [4]
“DPRK Premier Inspects Several Sectors of National Economy,” KCNA, July 24, 2020.
- [5]
See: “Farming Fertilizer Supply Plans Fulfilled in DPRK,” KCNA, July 22, 2020; and “Hungnam Fertilizer Complex Increases Production,” Rodong Sinmun, January 6, 2022.
- [6]
“Chemical Industry Reinforces Self-supporting Foundation,” KCNA, October 25, 2021.
- [7]
“DPRK Premier Inspects Major Industrial Establishments,” KCNA, December 12, 2021.
- [8]
“Hungnam Fertilizer Complex Increases Production,” Rodong Sinmun.
8. Korea, U.S. to Put off Joint Drills Until April
I would note regarding COVID that the major ROK/US CFC combined exercises held since the COVID outbreak have resulted in no reported COVID outbreaks due to the exercises.
As I have previously mentioned this should have been decided and announced at the SCM. But at least it is being discussed in public now. It is important that the exercise not become an election issue.
Korea, U.S. to Put off Joint Drills Until April
Korea and the U.S. are putting off regular joint military exercises for the first half of this year from March to April in consideration of the upcoming presidential election here and the never-ending coronavirus pandemic.
A military source here said on Thursday, "We've had a discussion about the postponement of joint drills considering the presidential election and the spread of COVID-19 within the U.S. Forces Korea."
The two allies usually stage massive joint drills twice a year, in March and August. Last year, they drastically downscaled them by conducting computer-based simulations because of the pandemic.
But COVID-19 is spreading among American troops even though they are all fully vaccinated. Some 1,599 American soldiers tested positive between Jan. 4 and 10. A total of 4,626 American soldiers have been infected so far, taking up a significant 16.5 percent of all 28,000 American troops stationed here.
"More COVID cases have occurred among American troops here than among all 550,000 Korean soldiers, where cases stood at about 3,500," a government official said. "American troops, as well as Korean soldiers of the Combined Forces Command, are so scared of COVID that they are canceling meetings and appointments."
9. Biden strategy on North Korea under pressure over missile launches
Calm down. Do not give in to the appeasers. That will be a huge strategic mistake and cause even greater long term negative effects than a few missile tests.
We should remember that the policy not only seeks principled and practical diplomacy but also rests on "stern deterrence" which I interpret as a strong combined ROK/US military foundation as well as support from other ROK and US allies. It also includes the full implementation of all UN Security Council resolutions. I interpret this to mean not only what it says but also that we will not seek lifting UN sanctions until the regime complies with the requirements of the resolutions.
We have focused for months on the mantra that we are ready to negotiate anywhere, anytime, without preconditions but we have ignored the other aspects of the policy. And for principled and practical diplomacy to have a chance Kim Jong-un must make the decision to act as a responsible member of the international community. It is his failure to act properly (combined with the nature of the regime and its objectives and strategy) that is the reason for the recent provocations and the lack of diplomatic activity.
Biden strategy on North Korea under pressure over missile launches
The Hill · by Laura Kelly · January 14, 2022
President Biden may soon be forced to take action amid threats from an increasingly aggressive North Korea, which has flexed its military might in recent days with provocative missile launches.
Biden, who has taken a more subdued approach to Pyongyang compared to his predecessor, former President Trump, has long called for open dialogue over a host of issues between the two nations without preconditions.
The administration has taken no steps to entice North Korea to begin such talks — which the isolated nation has roundly rejected — but Pyongyang’s reported launching of at least two hypersonic, ballistic missiles this month are challenging Biden’s current stance.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Thursday called Pyongyang’s latest missile tests “profoundly destabilizing” and stated that the administration is working in close coordination with South Korea, Japan and the United Nations on a response.
“We are very focused with allies and partners in making sure that they and we are properly defended and that there are repercussions, consequences for these actions by North Korea,” Blinken said in an interview with MSNBC.
Experts say the Biden administration's focus on North Korea has dropped on its list of international priorities. Other challenges, like Russia’s military buildup on its border with Ukraine, reviving the nuclear deal with Iran and the fallout over the U.S.’s violent exit from Afghanistan, have required more immediate attention.
“The desire to start a new diplomatic campaign to engage North Korea beyond what has already been on the table — that North Korea has not picked up — the appetite for that is pretty low,” said Jacob Stokes, a Fellow in the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security.
“Ultimately, because there’s a number of other things going on.”
Stokes said that the Biden administration's strategy towards North Korea is seeking to strike a balance between that of the Obama administration – dubbed “strategic patience,” withholding high level engagement until Pyongyang changes its behavior – and that of the Trump administration. Trump held two unsuccessful face-to-face meetings with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
“The Biden administration, their policy is nominally trying to strike a balance between those two poles,” Stokes said. “The Biden administration is clearly ready to sit down with North Korean officials, whether that’s actually in person or virtually, but North Korea has been reluctant to come to the table.”
The reclusive nation has long held out against pressure and overture from the U.S. to discuss its nuclear weapons. Yet Biden officials are saying it won’t ignore Pyongyang’s ongoing missile tests, the latest of which took place on Jan. 10.
The Treasury Department on Wednesday issued sanctions against five North Korean nationals that it says are involved in procuring goods for Pyongyang’s weapons program and that it said were issued in response to at least six ballistic missile launches carried out by North Korea since September 2021.
These are likely to include reported launches on Jan. 10 of an advanced hypersonic ballistic missile, another hypersonic missile test on Jan. 5, a submarine-launched ballistic missile in October and launching long-range cruise missiles on Sept. 11 and 12.
U.S. agencies are still analyzing the most recent test, which caused the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration to temporarily pause some West Coast flights, but little else has been revealed on the launch. The Pentagon on Thursday declined to comment on what type of missile it has assessed the armament to be.
Ankit Panda, Stanton senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that while the missile tests are provocative, they are not necessarily a direct challenge to Pyongyang’s neighbors or the U.S.
“I think the North Koreans are primarily conducting these tests for research and development purposes,” he said, adding that they are part of a policy pronounced by Kim last year that he wanted a range of new technologies tested.
“So the North Koreans have been going ahead and doing that.”
Panda also echoed the Biden administration’s lack of focus of the North Korea issue, calling the delay in nominating a U.S. ambassador to South Korea a “big oversight.”
“I was in Seoul in November and that was brought up quite a bit as a sign that the Biden administration is generally disinterested in Korea issues, so my hope is that they will rectify that soon, reportedly they’re looking for the right person,” he said.
Biden announced in May that Sung Kim, the U.S. ambassador to Indonesia, would also take on the role of U.S. Special Envoy for North Korea. While the appointment served as a positive signal of focus on the Korean peninsula, Panda said that the dual hats amounted to focus on North Korea as a “part time” job.
“It makes sense for him to be part time just given that the North Koreans are very much not looking to engage in diplomacy right now,” he said. “The staffing issue does matter but I do think that the sources of disinterest in North Korea are deeper right now.”
While South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who will finish out his presidential term in May, has viewed advancing peaceful relations with the North as a defining part of his legacy, a key goal of achieving an “end-of-war" declaration with Pyongyang has also stalled.
“That hasn’t really gone anywhere. The South Koreans have made a few statements that everybody’s agreed in principle, but that’s something we really knew for a while,” Panda said.
The Korean War, which began in 1950, ended in an armistice in 1953.
Moon's “end-of-war" declaration is not a peace treaty, but considered an important political statement as part of advancing relations on the peninsula.
More concerning, Panda pointed out, is whether a victory by South Korea’s conservative presidential candidate Yoon Seok-youl is likely to ignite tensions in the area.
Yoon has signaled a more hawkish stance when approaching the North, saying in an interview that he supported launching a preemptive strike on Pyongyang if Seoul is found to be threatened with missiles loaded with nuclear warheads.
“If a conservative, and specifically Yoon Seok-youl... were to win, that would be a pretty significant development because it would actually change, I think, South Korean’s orientation a bit,” Panda said, “and it might actually lead the North Koreans to then consider staging direct provocations against South Korea in the pursuit of advantage later this year, or potentially in the years to come.”
Japan, meanwhile, has expressed deep concern about the missile launches and is engaged in its own national debate over how to best to shore up its defenses. Tokyo has emphasized close cooperation with the U.S. and South Korea in confronting North Korea’s actions.
“Cooperation between Japan and the US, as well as among Japan, the US and South Korea is extremely important in dealing with North Korea,” Masashi Mizobuchi, spokesperson for the Japanese Embassy in Washington D.C., said in a statement to The Hill.
“Our three countries have been working closely together, in cooperation with the international community, to promote the full implementation of relevant U.N. Security Council resolutions and to achieve the complete denuclearization of North Korea.”
The most likely response is an increase in sanctions on North Korea, but Panda said Pyongyang has isolated itself to such an extreme degree in response to the pandemic that it's unlikely any more outside pressure is going to change its behavior.
“The pandemic has imposed more economic pain on North Korea than we could have ever hoped to do with our sanctions,” he said. “I think it’s a pretty clear indicator that they’re willing to sustain tremendous amounts of economic pain... and they’ll still find a way to push ahead with their nuclear missile capabilities which they deem to be absolutely essential for their survival.”
Ellen Mitchell contributed to this report.
The Hill · by Laura Kelly · January 14, 2022
10. Candidates for North Korean leadership bodyguard unit must be four centimeters taller than last year
As we know, no one gets ahead in north Korea (or even survives) without demonstrating personal loyalty to Kim Jong-un.
Excerpt:
The third section lists “markers” of potential candidates. This section says candidates should “absolutely idolize” Kim Jong Un, be ideologically prepared to die to protect him, and possess no problems in their political or ideological mentality.
Candidates for North Korean leadership bodyguard unit must be four centimeters taller than last year
New materials obtained by Daily NK also say that candidates should be children of laborers, farmers, or soldiers
Daily NK recently obtained an original copy of the standards for selecting members of so-called “Unit 974,” the bodyguard unit tasked with protecting North Korea’s top leadership. The standards were reportedly changed last November, going into effect this year.
According to the materials obtained through a Daily NK source in North Korea, the list of standards is divided into three broad sections.
The first is “Candidates.” This section spells out that selections should focus on high school seniors, particularly those at so-called “No. 1” schools — the top high schools in their province, city or county. Since these students are being selected to protect North Korea’s top leadership, they should be somewhat academically competent.
Next, candidates should be children of laborers, farmers or soldiers. It said screeners should base their selections more on children of people living in rural communities rather than those of people living in urbanized districts.
If this is the case, why would North Korea prioritize the children of laborers and farmers in selecting bodyguards?
About this, the source said if you join the bodyguards, you will never see your family again, or at least you will have to wait 13 years or so to do so. Moreover, students from cadre families and students raised in urban areas have a “higher consciousness” than students from rural communities, he said.
The source said bodyguards should be prepared to become “meat shields” (people prepared to sacrifice their lives), something children raised in carefree cadre homes would never do. He said because of this, the authorities choose children of laborers and farmers who are willing to die wherever and whenever just to hear that they “gave their lives in the line of duty fighting as revolutionary warriors loyal to the Supreme Leader [North Korean leader Kim Jong Un].”
A screenshot of the materials containing the selection standards for bodyguard units. / Photo courtesy a Daily NK source in North Korea
The second part of the materials relates to “standards.” According to the materials, candidates for the bodyguard should be 17 years of age, 167 centimeters tall (though they can be shorter than this when they are first recommended), and have good grades, though a handful of mediocre grades of six out of ten in high school are fine.
These standards differ slightly from the past. As recently as last year, high school seniors who were 163 centimeters tall would have been included as candidates for Office No. 6, considering that young students were likely to continue growing.
However, according to the materials obtained by Daily NK, the height standard appears to have grown by four centimeters. Academically, standards have come down by allowing three or more grades of just six out of ten, though this appears to take into consideration how students at “No. 1” schools are better than those at ordinary schools.
The third section lists “markers” of potential candidates. This section says candidates should “absolutely idolize” Kim Jong Un, be ideologically prepared to die to protect him, and possess no problems in their political or ideological mentality.
Candidates should also be model students and participants in the country’s “organizational life,” conduct themselves well, be healthy, and carry out their duties without complaint even in adverse circumstances. Furthermore, they should be free of nepotistic impulses and of good character, too.
The source said that as these people are tasked with protecting Kim, they are subject to thorough ideological and personal vetting. He said many students are initially selected for consideration but then rejected in the end.
Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
11. Update on North Korean Human Rights on the First Anniversary of the Biden Inauguration
Conclusion:
The Biden administration was cautious about nominating additional ambassadors when Cruz and Hawley were preventing action on nominations that had already been made and were waiting for Senate action. With scores of ambassadorial nominations awaiting approval by the Senate, there is benefit to not further clogging the system with additional nominations that also will not move forward. Now that the gridlock appears to have been broken, a nomination for special envoy for North Korean human rights likely is not far behind. It is the arcane politics and procedures of the Senate, rather than any question about the wisdom and value of the special envoy, that has delayed their appointment. But now is the time for the president and secretary of state to make good on their promises to name the special envoy for North Korean human rights.
Update on North Korean Human Rights on the First Anniversary of the Biden Inauguration
Senior Adviser (Non-resident), Korea Chair
csis.org · by Senior Adviser (Non-resident), Korea Chair ·
January 13, 2022
January 20, 2022, marks the first anniversary of the swearing in of Joseph R. Biden as president of the United States. Last month also marked the 10th anniversary of the elevation of Kim Jong-un to supreme leader of North Korea following the death of his father in December 2011, and South Korean president Moon Jae-in will step down following the elections in two months on March 9. That makes this a particularly appropriate time to look at the status of U.S. policy on North Korean human rights. Has the change in U.S. presidents made a difference, and what can be expected in the next year?
In December 2020, following the U.S election, but a month before the inauguration of President Biden, I made recommendations on the human rights agenda for the incoming president—appoint a special envoy on North Korean human rights, reengage with the United Nations on human rights in North Korea and elsewhere, improve U.S. international information efforts, and encourage government and private humanitarian assistance. Where does that stand one year later?
In looking at North Korean human rights issues, keep in mind that this is not the only issue President Biden has pressing for attention. He entered the Oval Office at a turbulent time in U.S. history. As he reaches his first anniversary in office, the United States is also marking the first anniversary of the U.S. Capitol insurrection as a House panel seeks to spotlight what happened and why. At the same time, the country is coping with the health consequences of the fourth upsurge of the Covid-19 virus, while seeking to contain the economic upheaval caused by the pandemic and encourage vaccinations in a highly politicized atmosphere. In foreign policy, the White House is trying to dissuade the Kremlin from hostile military action in Ukraine and pressing Beijing on its rollback of human rights in Hong Kong and Xinjiang and its increased pressure on Taiwan. U.S. troops left Afghanistan in a messy departure, and the United States is attempting to negotiate a resumption of the nuclear limitations on Iran.
Despite the full domestic and international agenda, the North Korean human rights issue remains an important U.S. foreign policy priority. The administration has shown significant improvement in two areas, while in two others, there is need for improvement.
U.S. Engagement with the United Nations on Human Rights in North Korea: Significant Improvement
The United Nations organization has been a critical force in pressing for human rights progress, and this is particularly true in the case of North Korea. Just a few weeks after the Biden inauguration, Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced that the United States would reengage with the UN Human Rights Council. The United States was elected to a seat on the council in October 2021 after U.S. officials announced that the United States would seek membership in the organization. On January 1, 2022, the United States officially took one of the 47 seats on the Human Rights Council. The previous administration withdrew from any involvement or participation in council activities in 2018.
In March 2021, when the UN Human Rights Council adopted by consensus a resolution that criticized North Korea for abusing its own citizens’ human rights, the United States supported the resolution. South Korean press reports highlighted the fact that the United States was again active on North Korean human rights issues in the council and noted that South Korea had not supported resolutions that were critical of North Korea since 2018.
Furthermore, since the beginning of the Biden administration, U.S. diplomats have been vocal in discussing North Korean human rights abuses and vocal in supporting criticism of North Korea in the UN General Assembly and Security Council. In December 2021, the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution that was critical of North Korea’s human rights issues. The United States cosponsored the statement, and a U.S. representative gave a strong statement supporting the resolution.
From 2014 to 2017, the UN Security Council held a special session annually devoted to North Korean human rights, and the United States led the effort encouraging the Security Council to discuss these human rights abuses. During the Trump presidency, U.S. diplomats at the United Nations blocked Security Council discussion of North Korea’s human rights abuses. In mid-December 2021, the United States played a leading role in the Security Council’s discussion of North Korean human rights. Although only 6 of the 15 Security Council members supported having the discussion in a public session and 9 member countries are required to make it public, the United States played a leading role in focusing attention on North Korea, and Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, made the statement on behalf of those countries supporting the public discussion of North Korean human rights immediately after the closed meeting. This change in U.S. actions represents a significantly more active U.S. role at the United Nations in dealing with human rights in North Korea.
U.S. International Broadcasting Directed to North Korea: Significant Improvement
Access to international information is particularly important for improvement in human rights in North Korea. The country is one of the most hostile environments for freedom of information in the world. The respected international organization Reporters Without Borders ranks North Korea as 179th out of 180 countries in the world, making it one of the most restrictive countries in the world in terms of access to information, ahead of only Eritrea. Reporters Without Borders concluded that the North Korean “totalitarian regime continues to keep its citizens in a state of ignorance.”
Voice of America and Radio Free Asia, which are elements of the U.S. Agency for Global Media (USAGM), broadcast daily radio programming in Korean directed into North Korea. This broadcasting, along with daily transmissions from South Korea and some from China, is among the most important sources of outside information reaching North Korean citizens. An indication of the importance of international radio broadcasting in breaking the Kim regime’s information monopoly is the extent to which Pyongyang goes to discourage listening to foreign radio broadcasts.
A particular threat to U.S. international broadcasting efforts, including those directed toward North Korea, was the Trump administration’s appointment of Michael Pack, a documentary filmmaker, as CEO of the USAGM in June 2020. He fired the heads of news outlets under his control, including Voice of America and Radio Free Asia. He installed Trump loyalists in all key positions and he eliminated the nonpartisan board that oversees USAGM. Pack spent millions of taxpayer dollars on law firms hired to investigate journalists for purported bias against Donald Trump. He also ignored, changed, or eliminated USAGM rules that protected journalists from political interference.
Voice of America and Radio Free Asia are an important source of information, but their credibility with listeners requires that they provide accurate, timely, and unbiased information. Pack said that the policies he implemented as CEO of USAGM would give greater prominence to editorials reflecting the views of the Trump administration. Such politicization of the news and information programs lowers credibility for U.S. broadcasts to North Korea and elsewhere.
Although Pack was only in office for seven months, Biden requested and received his resignation within two hours after the new president was sworn into office on January 20, 2021. That change of leadership has been followed by a restoration of the principles and practices that were in place at USAGM prior to Pack’s appointment. Changes in USAGM leadership are bringing information professionals back into leadership of the organization.
Encourage Humanitarian Assistance to North Korea: Covid-19 Restrictions Prevent Aid
Living conditions in North Korea are horrible. Severe food shortages and lack of life-saving medicines are the consequence of difficult weather conditions and the plunge in imports from abroad. International sanctions on Pyongyang imposed by the UN Security Council for the country’s illegal nuclear and missile development programs have created brutal living conditions for the vast majority of North Koreans. U.S. unilateral travel sanctions against North Korea have made it difficult for U.S. humanitarian organizations to operate in North Korea, and external aid has declined precipitously.
Some of the problems with aid and commerce involving North Korea are the result of the Covid-19 pandemic and counterproductive policies enacted by the Kim regime. In his report to the UN Human Rights Council in March 2021, Tomás Ojea Quintana, UN special rapporteur on human rights in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, suggested that Covid-19 prevention measures in North Korea have “resulted in a drastic decline in trade and commercial activities” as well as “severe economic hardship to the general population, causing increased food insecurity.” The stringent Covid-19 prevention measures are the regime’s response to protect North Korea’s fragile healthcare system and its weak economy.
In late January 2020, in a draconian effort to prevent the spread of Covid-19, North Korea closed its borders. Border security has been enhanced and border guards have been instructed to shoot to kill those attempting to cross in or out of the country. North Koreans have reportedly been shot for simply entering the buffer zone near the border. Shortly after tighter border controls were imposed, a South Korean official was shot and his body burned after his boat entered North Korean territorial waters. A significant portion of foreign diplomats have left North Korea, and departing diplomats are generally not being replaced. North Korean policies on the Covid-19 pandemic make it quite clear that the government is unlikely to allow U.S. citizens or visitors of other nationalities to enter the country as long as the pandemic continues to rage.
As a result of these conditions inside North Korea throughout the pandemic, the Biden administration has little opportunity to improve the availability of humanitarian assistance, either by providing aid directly from the U.S. government or by making it easier for private U.S. citizens to travel to North Korea and otherwise engage in humanitarian activities. A clear indication of the lack of interest from Pyongyang in any humanitarian aid at this time is the fact that three million doses of Sinovac Covid-19 vaccines offered by China were rejected by North Korea.
Appointment of a Special Envoy on North Korean Human Rights: Still Waiting
The appointment of a special envoy on North Korean human rights is important to assure the participation of a senior advocate for human rights in the process of formulating and implementing U.S. policy on North Korea. That was the intention of Congress when the position was created in the North Korean Human Rights Act of 2004 and in subsequent reauthorizations of that legislation. The special envoy position for North Korean human rights was left vacant for the entire four years of the Trump administration, although in 2018, Trump signed the legislation reauthorizing the North Korean Human Rights Act, which included a provision requiring the appointment of the special envoy.
At the time Secretary of State Antony Blinken made his first foreign trip as secretary to South Korea in March 2021, he told South Korean broadcaster KBS in an interview that “President Biden has been very clear from day one that he was determined to put human rights and democracy back at the center of American foreign policy. North Korea, unfortunately, is one of the most egregious human rights situations that we know around the world.” Three months later in an appearance before the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Blinken said the administration would follow the law, and President Biden would nominate a person to be the North Korean human rights envoy. There is little doubt that Biden will nominate the special envoy.
The lack of a nomination so far does not seem to be the fault of President Biden or Secretary Blinken. The problem seems to be the dysfunction of the U.S. Senate and the current highly polarized politics in that body. At the end of October (nine months after his inauguration) when President Biden went to Europe for key international meetings including the G20 Summit in Rome and the UN Climate Change Summit in Glasgow, the United States had ambassadors in only 4 of the 19 other countries that make up the G20 and only four of Biden’s scores of ambassadorial appointments had been approved by the U.S. Senate. At the same time in his predecessor’s tenure, 22 ambassadors had been appointed.
The real issue holding up senate confirmations are the actions of Senators Ted Cruz (R-TX) and secondarily Josh Hawley (R-MO), who have used the Senate rules to prevent a vote or any other action on ambassadorial nominations. A Boston Globe editorial criticizing the actions of Cruz and Hawley was entitled “U.S. ambassadors, State Department officials held hostage.” The editorial begins: “Donald Trump spent the four years of his presidency hollowing out the State Department. Now as Joe Biden attempts to once again make the United States a player on the world stage, Republican Senators Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley are continuing the mission of decimating the nation’s foreign policy apparatus.” Finally, just before leaving Washington for Christmas a few weeks ago, 54 pending ambassadorial nominations were confirmed by the Senate. Unfortunately, there are still 38 more nominations still awaiting Senate approval.
The Biden administration was cautious about nominating additional ambassadors when Cruz and Hawley were preventing action on nominations that had already been made and were waiting for Senate action. With scores of ambassadorial nominations awaiting approval by the Senate, there is benefit to not further clogging the system with additional nominations that also will not move forward. Now that the gridlock appears to have been broken, a nomination for special envoy for North Korean human rights likely is not far behind. It is the arcane politics and procedures of the Senate, rather than any question about the wisdom and value of the special envoy, that has delayed their appointment. But now is the time for the president and secretary of state to make good on their promises to name the special envoy for North Korean human rights.
Ambassador Robert R. King is a senior adviser in the Office of the Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. Previously, Ambassador King served as special envoy for North Korean human rights issues at the U.S. Department of State from November 2009 to January 2017.
Commentary is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s).
© 2022 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved.
csis.org · by Senior Adviser (Non-resident), Korea Chair ·
12. North Korea Says It Fired Railway-Borne Missiles in Friday Drill
North Korea Says It Fired Railway-Borne Missiles in Friday Drill
A missile test from railway in North Pyongan Province, North Korea, on Jan. 14.Source: Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service/AP Photo
January 14, 2022, 4:59 PM ESTUpdated onJanuary 14, 2022, 8:02 PM EST
North Korea fired two tactical guided missiles from railcars in a Friday morning drill that “precisely struck the set target in the East Sea of Korea,” the official Korean Central News Agency said.
South Korea’s military said earlier that North Korea appeared to have launched two short-range ballistic missiles that flew about 430 kilometers (270 miles) and reached 36 km in altitude. It was North Korea’s third volley of missiles in less than 10 days, which included two separate tests of a new hypersonic missile system designed to evade U.S.-operated interceptors.
In a video of a previous rail-based test launch, a state TV announcer boasted that North Korea now has “a railway mobile missile regiment that enhances our ability for a simultaneous and concentrated strike on our threats, and better respond to various threats.”
North Korea's Train Missile Launch
Kim Jong Un has added train-launched missiles to North Korea’s nuclear arsenal.State-owned broadcaster KRT released footage as tensions with South Korea intensify (Source: Quicktake)
North Korea warned Friday it would take a “stronger and certain reaction” after the U.S. sanctioned individuals associated with Pyongyang’s weapons program, saying tests this month of its hypersonic missile system were part of its “legitimate right” to enhance its self-defense. A few hours after the statement appeared on official media, North Korea fired off the two suspected ballistic missiles in what may have been an effort to show it could back its words with a quick response.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken condemned the recent ballistic missile launches, which were in violation of multiple UN Security Council resolutions, according to an e-mailed statement on Friday.
The Firing Line
Ballistic missile tests under Kim Jong Un
Sources: South Korea Ministry of Defense and Center for Nonproliferation Studies
The tests in January come after leader Kim Jong Un told a year-end meeting of top ruling party officials he was more interested in bolstering his arsenal than returning to nuclear talks with the U.S. that were stalled for nearly three years. In his remarks, Kim urged North Korea to focus on easing food shortages and containing Covid, while suggesting disarmament talks were a low priority in the coming months.
The Biden administration has indicated it could offer financial rewards, such as easing global sanctions, that have squeezed North Korea in return for verifiable disarmament steps.
(Updates with comment from U.S. Secretary of State in 5th paragraph.)
13. Talking about talks with North Korea
Excerpts:
It's possible to believe the only solution is to vastly improve defenses and be ready to resist any provocation. That of course, however, raises the specter of a second Korean War that nobody wants. Is the answer, then, "strategic patience," similar to the "watchful waiting" advocated by a physician treating a dangerous disease?
The U.S. and South Korea have no choice but to keep calling for talks and to hope that China and others will also pressure the North. It's possible we'll be asking the same questions next year and the year after ― a never-ending story in which hope springs eternal while solutions remain elusive.
Talking about talks with North Korea
By Donald Kirk
Survival under the threat of a North Korean missile strike is like living with the danger of COVID. One takes all precautions, but there's no guarantee anything will work.
When it comes to what to do about North Korea, the obvious first answer is negotiations, and then more negotiations, and then an agreement of some sort. Looking back on the history, all these negotiations have failed to produce lasting deals.
That doesn't mean, though, that we should stop looking. Sure, why not? Christopher Hill, the lead American negotiator on those six-party talks that got nowhere, loved talking about progress until the talks fizzled out and the North went on testing missiles and nukes.
The most optimistic moment probably was the deal reached in 1994 when the U.S. and North Korea reached an elaborate "framework" agreement under which the North would give up its nuclear program in exchange for construction of twin light-water reactors to provide nuclear power for the North's dilapidated electricity network. South Korea would provide $2 billion for the reactors, Japan another $1 billion, while the U.S. shipped 500,000 tons of heavy oil every year to fuel existing power plants until the reactors went online.
That deal fell apart six years later when the North was revealed to be fabricating nuclear warheads with highly enriched uranium (HEU) after shutting down its Yongbyon reactor. Revelation of the HEU program did not necessarily have to lead to the breakdown of the framework. Maybe the Americans should have said, 'Let's revise the whole deal.' As it was, the U.S. stopped shipping the heavy oil into North Korea, and North Korea kicked out inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency who'd been monitoring its reactor at Yongbyon to be sure it was locked up and not working.
Then the North withdrew from the nuclear non-proliferation treaty on the way to conducting its first nuclear test in 2006, the first of two ordered by Kim Jong-il. Kim Jong-un, since his father's death, has ordered four more tests, the last in September 2017 before the sequence in which Kim and South Korea's President Moon Jae-in met at Panmunjeom in April 2018 and Donald Trump, in the brightest moment of his presidency, met Kim in Singapore in June 2018. I remember Trump, in a rambling press conference the next day, saying North Korea would begin dismantling its nuclear program right away.
The brief statement signed by Trump and Kim, promising to work for a "nuclear-free" Korean peninsula, was disappointingly short on specifics or guarantees but provided a take-off point for talks.
Moon's understandings with Kim, in three meetings in 2018, came up with a vision of stopping testing and turning the peninsula into "a land of peace." The great caveat, of course, was Kim's insistence that the U.S. had to respond in accordance "with the spirit" of his summit with Trump. The "spirit" evaporated at the second Kim-Trump summit in Hanoi in February 2019 when Trump walked out after resisting demands to give up sanctions while Kim balked at shutting down his nuclear program.
These moments in history have been so full of hope and so fraught with disappointment and frustration that it's possible to see the whole process of dealing with the North as pointless. The best the U.S. and South Korea can do is insist on more talks before doing anything. As a precondition, the North wants to set the terms for coming to the table.
It would be absurd, however, for the Americans to agree on giving up sanctions just to draw the North into talks that would inevitably go nowhere. An end-of-war declaration would be meaningless if North Korea insisted on concessions before even talking about the wording of such a statement. The truce that ended the Korean War in July 1953 was probably the best end-of-war declaration imaginable. It ended the Korean War and has stood the test of time far better than many treaties.
It's possible to believe the only solution is to vastly improve defenses and be ready to resist any provocation. That of course, however, raises the specter of a second Korean War that nobody wants. Is the answer, then, "strategic patience," similar to the "watchful waiting" advocated by a physician treating a dangerous disease?
The U.S. and South Korea have no choice but to keep calling for talks and to hope that China and others will also pressure the North. It's possible we'll be asking the same questions next year and the year after ― a never-ending story in which hope springs eternal while solutions remain elusive.
Donald Kirk, www.donaldkirk.com, has been following the ups and downs of the nuclear issue for decades.
V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
