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Quotes of the Day:
"May we never confuse honest dissent with disloyal subversion."
– Dwight D. Eisenhower
"Old age and treachery will always beat youth and exuberance."
–David Mamet
"A diplomat is a man who always remembers a woman's birthday but never remembers her age."
– Robert Frost
1. S. Korea says N. Korea can never be recognized as nuclear power after Trump nominee refers to Pyongyang as one
2. CIA director nominee calls N. Korea 'destabilizing force'
3. Rubio says he'll explore how to lower risks of 'inadvertent' inter-Korean war, keep other states from seeking nuclear arms
4. Biden administration clarifies it does not recognize North Korea as a nuclear power
5. South Korea using loudspeakers to spread news of North Korean troops captured by Ukraine
6. US experts: “Information inflow to North Korea is a legitimate security measure… Inappropriate subject of special prosecutor law”
7. Hegseth calls North Korea a nuclear power, urges allies to share defense burden
8. North Korea's suicide soldiers pose new challenge for Ukraine in war with Russia
9. Even the 'AI manipulation theory'… Hot interest in North Korean military prisoner video
10. Pax Polska: Poland is Primed to Become the Backbone of Europe’s Security
11. Editorial: Upholding rule of law is key to South Korea's stability during unprecedented turmoil
12. The End of the North Korean Soldiers Brainwashed with the Suicide Spirit
1. S. Korea says N. Korea can never be recognized as nuclear power after Trump nominee refers to Pyongyang as one
Here is my response to a query from a Korean journalist who apparently did not find these of any value since he did not use them.
Words have meaning. It is imperative to use the correct words. In this case the misuse of words and misstatements are causing a backlash in South Korea. I have two responses.
First I have to give Hegseth the benefit of the doubt. I doubt very much that he has been briefed in any substantive way about Korean issues. He has a wave top understanding of them at best though he and President Trump on on the exact right path for South Korean cooperation on shipbuilding that Hegseth did mention in his testimony. He has likely spent all his time preparing for the hearing to defend against the character attacks which dominated 50% of the hearing.
However, I do not anticipate any policy changes or official statements designating north Korea a nuclear state or nuclear power. Yes it possesses nuclear weapons but it has demonstrated that it is in no way a responsible member of the international community therefore should never be allowed to have the reputation as a nuclear state. I am confident that the national security experts such as Mike Waltz, Marco Rubio, and especially Alex Wong will keep the Korea policy on an even keel and they will not allow concessions or appeasement of north Korea.
My second point is that South Korea needs to take a collective deep breath and not read the worst into every statement made by an American. Not every American policy maker will be well versed in Korea policy and America has so much on its plate beyond Korea. South Korea must not over react to statements. South Korea (despite the current domestic political turmoil) should be confident in its status as a global pivotal state that chooses to be a peaceful nuclear power, that is a partner in the arsenal of democracy of the free world and seeks to protect the rules based international order. And it is the 10th largest economy in the world and the 6th strongest military (and north Korea is the 34th).
So the bottom line is Hegseth needs to be given a pass this time and South Korea should not overreact to every misstatement.
Please let me know if you have any other questions.
S. Korea says N. Korea can never be recognized as nuclear power after Trump nominee refers to Pyongyang as one | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Seung-yeon · January 15, 2025
By Kim Seung-yeon
SEOUL, Jan. 15 (Yonhap) -- North Korea cannot be recognized as a nuclear-armed state under the international nonproliferation treaty, and its denuclearization is a principle shared by all parties involved, including South Korea and the United States, Seoul's foreign ministry said Wednesday.
The ministry made the comments after U.S. Defense Secretary nominee Pete Hegseth described the North as a nuclear power in his written answers submitted to the U.S. Senate for his confirmation hearing Tuesday (U.S. time).
The former Fox News host said the North's "status as a nuclear power" and its focus on developing missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons pose a threat to stability on the Korean Peninsula and beyond.
"North Korea's denuclearization has been a principle consistently upheld by South Korea, the United States and the international community," the ministry said.
"Under the NPT (Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty), North Korea can never be recognized as a nuclear-armed state," it said.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (in black suit) inspects the Nuclear Weapons Institute and the production base of weapons-grade nuclear materials, in this undated photo provided by the North's official Korean Central News Agency on Sep. 13, 2024. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
The ministry also cited the White House reaffirming its position on the North's denuclearization.
The NPT is an international agreement on preventing the spread of nuclear weapons. Only five countries are acknowledged as nuclear-armed states: the United States, Britain, Russia, France and China.
North Korea acceded to the NPT in 1985 but withdrew from it in 2003 after Washington accused the regime of pursuing a secret uranium enrichment program in violation of their bilateral agreement on freezing its nuclear programs.
On Tuesday, National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby reiterated that the Biden administration remains unchanged on North Korea's denuclearization policy.
"I can't speak to what the incoming team will characterize it. We have not gone so far as to recognition," Kirby said in a press meeting.
elly@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Seung-yeon · January 15, 2025
2. CIA director nominee calls N. Korea 'destabilizing force'
Good comments.
And it is more than cyber that north Korea and others are using because they cannot compete with US kinetic firepower.
Excerpts:
"North Korea remains a destabilizing force," Ratcliffe said in his opening statement. "Increasing coordination among America's rivals and adversaries threatens to compound the threats they each pose individually."
The nominee also pointed out North Korea and other countries, which cannot compete with the U.S. in terms of kinetic firepower across the board, leverage cyber means to undermine America's security.
"We see that with Iran and North Korea and other countries, who can't compete with us kinetically, focus on cyber means to cause us harm. Russia certainly falls into that category as well," he said.
He enumerated a series of security threats America has to deal with.
As much as I focus on Korea, my Korean friends must recognize that the US has a lot on its plate. And when we address other threats that does not mean a slight ot Korea or a change in policy.
(LEAD) CIA director nominee calls N. Korea 'destabilizing force' | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · January 16, 2025
(ATTN: ADDS more remarks in paras 4-5)
By Song Sang-ho
WASHINGTON, Jan. 15 (Yonhap) -- Incoming President Donald Trump's nominee for Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) director assessed Wednesday that North Korea remains a "destabilizing" force, as he stressed America faces what may be the "most challenging" national security environment in its history.
John Ratcliffe, former director of national intelligence (DNI), made the remarks during his confirmation hearing at the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, pointing to a series of security challenges, including those from China and Iran.
"North Korea remains a destabilizing force," Ratcliffe said in his opening statement. "Increasing coordination among America's rivals and adversaries threatens to compound the threats they each pose individually."
Former U.S. Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe testifies before a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing on his nomination to be CIA director, on Capitol Hill in Washington on Jan. 15, 2025 in this photo released by AFP. (Yonhap)
The nominee also pointed out North Korea and other countries, which cannot compete with the U.S. in terms of kinetic firepower across the board, leverage cyber means to undermine America's security.
"We see that with Iran and North Korea and other countries, who can't compete with us kinetically, focus on cyber means to cause us harm. Russia certainly falls into that category as well," he said.
He enumerated a series of security threats America has to deal with.
"The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) remains committed to dominating the world economically, technologically and militarily. Transnational criminal organizations are flooding American communities with violence and deadly narcotics," he said.
"The Russia-Ukraine War wages on, spreading devastation and increasing the risk of the United States being pulled into conflict with a nuclear power."
Particularly regarding China, Ratcliffe highlighted the need for the CIA to continue and intensify its focus on threats from China and the CCP.
"As DNI, I dramatically increased the Intelligence Community's resources devoted to China," he said. "I openly warned the American people that from my unique vantage point as the official who saw more U.S. intelligence than anyone else, I assessed that China was far and away our top national security threat."
On Iran, the nominee said that the Tehran regime and Iranian-backed terrorist groups continue to "export mayhem across the Middle East, and that the Islamic Republic is closer to nuclear breakout than ever before.
He also noted numerous terrorist organizations and other non-state actors that pose a "persistent" threat to the U.S. homeland.
"These threats converge at a time of rapid technological change. Emerging technologies like artificial intelligence and quantum computing will define the future of national security, geopolitical power, and human civilization," he said.
sshluck@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · January 16, 2025
3. Rubio says he'll explore how to lower risks of 'inadvertent' inter-Korean war, keep other states from seeking nuclear arms
The SECSTATE nominee has a full plate with still more to address at the buffet table.
Excerpt:
In November, President-elect Donald Trump nominated Rubio as his top diplomat -- a post facing a full plate of foreign policy challenges, including an intensifying rivalry with China, Russia's war in Ukraine and North Korea's evolving security threats to name a few.
(3rd LD) Rubio says he'll explore how to lower risks of 'inadvertent' inter-Korean war, keep other states from seeking nuclear arms | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · January 16, 2025
(ATTN: CHANGES headline, lead; UPDATES throughout)
By Song Sang-ho
WASHINGTON, Jan. 15 (Yonhap) -- Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio stressed the need Wednesday for Washington to take a "serious" look at North Korea policy to explore how to lower the risk of "inadvertent" war between the two Koreas and prevent a crisis on the Korean Peninsula without encouraging countries to seek their own nuclear arms.
During a confirmation hearing at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, the Florida senator also accused "rogue states" and "dictators" in the North, Russia and Iran of sowing "chaos," and China of having "lied, cheated and stolen" its way into a global superpower status at the expense of the United States.
In November, President-elect Donald Trump nominated Rubio as his top diplomat -- a post facing a full plate of foreign policy challenges, including an intensifying rivalry with China, Russia's war in Ukraine and North Korea's evolving security threats to name a few.
"Looking at the policy and seeing what can we now do that (stabilizes) the situation, that lowers the risk of an inadvertent war, be it between South Korea and North Korea, maybe including Japan at this point and ultimately the United States," he said.
"What can we do to prevent a crisis without encouraging other nation states to pursue their own nuclear weapons program. That's the solution we'd like to get to," he added.
Sen. Marco Rubio testifies before a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on his nomination to be Secretary of State, on Capitol Hill in Washington on Jan. 15, 2025 in this photo released by AFP. (Yonhap)
In response to Sen. Brian Schatz's claims that America's North Korea policy, including sanctions, is a "broken" one that has only seen Pyongyang doubling down on its nuclear and missile programs rather than slowing them, he highlighted the need to take a "serious" review of Washington's policy approach.
"I think there has to be an appetite for a very serious look at broader North Korean policies," he said.
He admitted that he was initially skeptical about engagement with Pyongyang, but he highlighted what Trump had achieved through his meetings with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un during his first term. Trump had three in-person meetings with Kim, including the first-ever summit in Singapore in 2018.
"I'll be frank. I was one of the people very skeptical about it, but (Trump) sort of reached out to Kim Jong-un, walked away from negotiations twice and ultimately did not reach something enduring. But here's what he was able to achieve in that engagement," he said.
"He stopped testing the missiles. That didn't stop the development of the program but at least calmed the situation quite a bit."
Rubio depicted the nature of the North Korean leader's adherence to its nuclear program based on Schatz's description of the dynastic ruler's dogged and defiant pursuit of its weapons programs at the expense of its own people.
"But I do think what you are pointing to is the following: You have a 40-something-year-old dictator who has to figure out how to hold down to power for the rest of his life. He has used nuclear weapons as his insurance policy to stay in power," he said.
"It means so much to him that no amount of sanctions has deterred him from developing that capability. In fact, (it) has not even kept him from having the resources to develop it."
In his opening statement, he expressed his concerns over security challenges from North Korea, China, Russia and Iran among others.
"In Moscow, in Tehran, in Pyongyang, dictators and rogue states now sow chaos and instability, and align with and they fund radical terror groups, and they hide behind their veto power at the U.N. Security Council or the threats of nuclear war," he said in his opening statement.
On China, he showed his hard-line stance, adding to speculation that Sino-U.S. tensions would deepen during the second Trump administration.
"We welcomed the Chinese Communist Party into the global order, and they took advantage of all of its benefits and they ignored all of its obligations and responsibilities," he said.
"Instead, they have lied, cheated, hacked and stolen their way into global superpower status, and they have done so at our expense and at the expense of the people of their own country."
Touching on the Taiwan issue, the nominee raised concerns over the possibility of China invading the self-governing island democracy, which Beijing claims as part of its territory under a one-China principle.
"I think we need to wrap our head around the fact that unless something dramatic changes, like an equilibrium, where they conclude that the costs of intervening in Taiwan are too high, we're going to have to deal with this before the end of this decade."
On the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Rubio pointed out that NATO member states are 'rich' and should contribute more to their defense.
Trump has said NATO states should spend 5 percent of gross domestic product on defense -- much higher than the current 2 percent guideline of the alliance. The demand has raised the prospects of the incoming president asking South Korea and other allies to increase their security contributions.
"I think there's been broad acknowledgement across Europe and across multiple administrations, both Republican and Democrat, that our NATO partners ... these are rich, advanced economies, need to contribute more to their own defense and ultimately to the NATO partnership as well," he said.
He went on to say that what matters is for the U.S. not just to have defense allies, but to have "capable" allies that are able to defend their region.
Still, he underscored the importance of the transatlantic alliance, calling it "very important" and "very useful."
Regarding Russia's protracted war in Ukraine, he asserted the need to end it -- a task that he said will require "bold" diplomacy.
"It is important for everyone to be realistic. There will have to be concessions made by the Russian Federation, but also by the Ukrainians," he said. "It's also important that there be some balance on both sides."
Rubio showed his negative view on the postwar global order, under which he believes countries have manipulated to serve their interest at the expense of America.
"The postwar global order is not just obsolete; it is now a weapon being used against us," he said. "And all this has led us to a moment in which we must now confront the single greatest risk of geopolitical instability and generational global crisis in the lifetime of anyone alive here today."
He underscored his readiness to realize Trump's America First credo, saying every policy the U.S. purses must be justified with the answer to three questions: whether it makes America "safer," "stronger," and "more prosperous."
"Under President Trump, the dollars of hardworking American taxpayers will always be spent wisely and our power will always be yielded prudently, and toward what is best for America and Americans above all else," he said.
Sen. Marco Rubio, President-elect Donald Trump's nominee to be secretary of state, looks on as he testifies during a Senate Foreign Relations Committee confirmation hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington on Jan. 15, 2025 in this photo released by Reuters. (Yonhap)
sshluck@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · January 16, 2025
4. Biden administration clarifies it does not recognize North Korea as a nuclear power
"Clean up on aisle E ring of the Pentagon." But of course it hardly matters what the Biden administration says now.
I feel that the Trump administration is not going to recognize north Korea as a nuclear power.
Wednesday
January 15, 2025
dictionary + A - A
Biden administration clarifies it does not recognize North Korea as a nuclear power
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2025-01-15/national/northKorea/Biden-administration-clarifies-it-does-not-recognize-North-Korea-as-a-nuclear-power/2222705
Published: 15 Jan. 2025, 11:27
White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby speaks during a press meeting at the Foreign Press Center in Washington on Jan. 14. [YONHAP]
A White House official said Tuesday the Biden administration has not recognized North Korea as a nuclear power, after incoming President Donald Trump's nominee for defense secretary characterized Pyongyang with the nuclear status.
National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby made the remarks after Defense Secretary nominee Pete Hegseth depicted the North as a nuclear power in his written answers submitted to the Senate Armed Services Committee ahead of his confirmation hearing on Tuesday.
Related Article
"I think our policy on that hasn't changed. We have not made such a recognition," he told a press meeting at the Foreign Press Center in Washington. "I can't speak to what the incoming team will characterize it. We have not gone so far as to recognition."
Kirby reiterated the outgoing administration's focus on making efforts to sit down with the North "without preconditions" while seeking to bolster cooperation with allies, including South Korea and Japan, to address North Korean threats.
"We can presume they weren't willing [to engage in dialogue]. So in light of their continued provocations, we have increased our information, intelligence and military capabilities on and around the peninsula," he said. "That's how the president has approached this."
Asked about the possibility of Trump's efforts to resume dialogue with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, the official said it will be up to the incoming president.
Commenting on the possibility of Pyongyang engaging in provocations around Trump's Inauguration Day on Monday, Kirby refused to share intelligence assessments.
"We are watching this very closely," he said.
The official defended the Biden administration's North Korea policy marked by its unsuccessful outreaches to the recalcitrant regime.
"I don't know how much more you can do than tell the Kim regime you are willing to sit down without preconditions and start to have a conversation," Kirby said. "That's a pretty bold position that you take out there."
Yonhap
5. South Korea using loudspeakers to spread news of North Korean troops captured by Ukraine
A good start. But the Minjoo /DPK party must not like this.
From this essay: A Psychological Operations Strategy for the Korean Peninsula from Lessons Learned in Ukraine
Two fundamental primary objectives should drive this PSYOP campaign during the Armistice:
1. Deter KPA soldiers from following orders to attack South Korea
2. Encourage KPA forces to refuse orders suppressing domestic political resistance
To achieve these goals, the mindset of North Korean soldiers must be understood. As Hyun Seung Lee explains, many are disillusioned with the regime but trapped by fear and indoctrination. South Korea and the U.S. must offer them hope, safety, and a path to a better future.
This is a specific proposal focused solely on targeting the NKPA by South Korea and U.S. PSYOP forces by exploiting the opportunities being presented in Ukraine. Comprehensive and complementary public diplomacy and information and influence campaign targeting the regime and the Korean people are necessary but beyond the scope of this proposal.
https://nationalsecurityjournal.org/a-psychological-operations-strategy-for-the-korean-peninsula-from-lessons-learned-in-ukraine/
Thursday
January 16, 2025
dictionary + A - A
South Korea using loudspeakers to spread news of North Korean troops captured by Ukraine
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2025-01-16/national/northKorea/South-Korea-using-loudspeakers-to-spread-news-of-North-Korean-troops-captured-by-Ukraine/2223824
Published: 16 Jan. 2025, 15:15
- LIM JEONG-WON
- lim.jeongwon@joongang.co.kr
Suspected North Korean soldiers wounded and captured by Ukrainian forces are seen in this photo posted on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's Telegram channel on Jan. 11. [SCREEN CAPTURE]
South Korean military authorities have used loudspeakers along the demilitarized zone to broadcast news of the capture of two North Korean soldiers by Ukrainian forces to the North Korean public.
The move comes amid Pyongyang's continued official silence regarding its deployment of troops to Russia and the battlefield casualties they have suffered.
The South Korean military also reported that a note was found in a North Korean soldier’s notebook seized on the battlefield that instructed soldiers to kill themselves before capture.
According to South Korean military authorities on Thursday, the "Voice of Freedom,” a radio program produced by the Defense Ministry’s military psychological warfare unit, reported that South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) "confirmed that the Ukrainian military captured two North Korean soldiers on the Kursk front in Russia on Jan. 12.”
Related Article
“The NIS stated that it plans to continue to share relevant information, including the battlefield situation, through close cooperation with the Ukrainian intelligence authorities,” it added.
Citing the NIS, Voice of Freedom reported that the North Korean soldiers were captured after being injured on the Kursk front and that they were born in 1999 and 2005. It also noted that they belong to the Reconnaissance General Bureau and appear to have served in the North Korean military since 2016 and 2021, respectively.
“On papers left by North Korean soldiers who died in battle against Ukrainian forces, the North Korean Workers’ Party emphasized self-destruction and suicide before being captured, and that the soldiers expected to join the Workers’ Party or be pardoned if they return to North Korea,” the Voice of Freedom reported.
The Voice of Freedom broadcast also reported that the NIS believes North Korean leader Kim Jong-un may visit Russia in the first half of this year to receive military and economic rewards for the dispatch of troops.
The possibility of the captured soldiers being repatriated to South Korea was also mentioned in the Voice of Freedom broadcast.
The Voice of Freedom quoted the South Korean Foreign Ministry, which said during a briefing Tuesday that it plans to consult with Ukraine if captured North Korean soldiers ask to defect, explaining that they are South Korean citizens according to the Constitution.
A captured North Korean soldier answers questions in a video posted on Jan. 11 on X by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. [SCREEN CAPTURE]
A spokesperson for the Foreign Ministry was quoted as saying, “We understand that the relevant South Korean authorities are communicating with Ukraine regarding information related to North Korean prisoners of war."
North Korea currently does not acknowledge its deployment of troops to Russia, and therefore, "it is judged that the North Korean troops are not legitimate combatants and will not be granted the status of prisoners of war under international law,” the broadcast said.
“Ukrainian authorities want to exchange captured North Korean troops for Ukrainian prisoners of war, but Russia, a party to the conflict, has expressed a negative stance on this, so the repatriation of North Korean troops to South Korea is a significant issue.”
North Korea has remained silent both domestically and internationally regarding the capture or death of North Korean troops dispatched to Russia. It is also noticeable that the international section of the North Korean state-run Rodong Sinmun has barely featured any news related to the Ukraine war this year.
Until early December last year, the Rodong Sinmun actively promoted Russia’s position, reporting almost daily on Western military aid to Ukraine.
This change may be because word of the deployment has spread in North Korea as battlefield casualties increase, with the regime concerned that reporting on the war could worsen public opinion.
South Korea’s NIS reported that North Korean authorities have issued death certificates to the families of the deceased soldiers.
Meanwhile, Kim Jong-un's public activities have also decreased significantly this month.
Kim has not been seen in public since the release of video footage of him and his daughter Kim Ju-ae supervising the test launch of a hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile on Jan. 6.
"It may be a breather in preparation for next week's Supreme People's Assembly policy speech," said Hong Min, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification. "They are probably refining their message by monitoring U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration speech and the confirmation hearings for Trump's diplomatic and security team."
BY LEE YOO-JUNG, LEE KEUN-PYUNG, LIM JEONG-WON [lim.jeongwon@joongang.co.kr]
6. US experts: “Information inflow to North Korea is a legitimate security measure… Inappropriate subject of special prosecutor law”
This is a Google translation of a VOA report.
A number of us point out the folly of the opposition party in South Korea.
For those who link loudspeakers and leaflets are an anachronism I would urge you to review George Hutchinson's work at the Committee for Human Rights in North korea.
ARMY OF THE INDOCTRINATED The Suryong, the Soldier, and Information in the KPA
https://www.hrnk.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Hutchinson_KPA_web_0426.pdf
Evans Revere and Robert Manning are wrong. Loudspeakers are not ineffective. But they are just one tool in what must be a holistic information campaign. And they miss the critical aspect of this debate. It is not about loudspeakers. It is about the opposition party wanting to protect the Kim family regime because information is an existential threat to the regime. Their comments and their lack of understanding of an information campaign are unhelpful.
US experts: “Information inflow to North Korea is a legitimate security measure… Inappropriate subject of special prosecutor law”
2025.1.16
https://www.voakorea.com/a/7938343.html
Experts in Washington pointed out that the opposition party's special prosecutor bill targeting South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol, including the distribution of leaflets to North Korea, the operation of loudspeakers, and the dispatch of troops to Ukraine, are legitimate security policies and could have a negative impact on US-South Korea cooperation. They also emphasized that the inflow of information on North Korea is a core value shared by the US and South Korea. Reporter Cho Sang-jin reports.
Bruce Klingner, Senior Research Fellow, Heritage Foundation
Bruce Klingner, a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, pointed out that “there is a need to clearly distinguish between legitimate foreign and security policies and unconstitutional measures” regarding the inclusion of North Korea-related policies, such as expanded distribution of leaflets to the North, in the new special prosecutor bill for internal strife proposed by the South Korean opposition party.
[Recording: Senior Researcher Klingner] “We need to differentiate between activity which is unconstitutional from legitimate foreign security policies. It’s very similar to the first, the impeachment motion, which included several paragraphs that were critical of President Yun’s foreign and security policies, equating them to unconstitutional acts.”
Senior Researcher Klingner told VOA in a phone call on the 15th that if President Yoon committed any illegal acts in the process of promoting policies, an investigation into this is inevitable.
However, he said that if the Korean opposition party, like it did when it first proposed the impeachment of President Yoon, tries to raise the issue of differences in views on foreign and security policies rather than clear unconstitutional acts, it could blur the focus of the investigation.
Earlier, the six opposition parties, including the Democratic Party of Korea, passed the second special prosecutor bill, which includes an investigation into the Yoon Seok-yeol government's foreign exchange activities, through the National Assembly's Legislation and Judiciary Committee on the 13th.
The special prosecutor's bill included six issues as targets for investigation, including the theory that the attack was induced along the Northern Limit Line (NLL), the theory that North Korea was considering striking the origin of the sewage balloons, the theory that South Korean drones infiltrated Pyongyang's skies, the operation of loudspeakers toward North Korea, the expansion of the distribution of leaflets toward North Korea, and the claim that troops were dispatched to overseas conflict zones such as Ukraine.
The 188 lawmakers who submitted the special prosecutor bill stated the reason for proposing the bill as follows: “The Yoon Seok-yeol government attempted to trigger a war by provoking an armed conflict with North Korea in order to threaten South Korea’s external existence and security,” and “In order to investigate this, we plan to appoint a special prosecutor with independent status and investigative capabilities to uncover the truth.”
The South Korean Ministry of National Defense responded in a statement that day, saying, "The South Korean military's 'suspension of the September 19 Military Agreement' and 'resume of loudspeaker broadcasts toward the North' are extremely normal measures to respond to North Korea's inhumane provocations."
“North Korea leaflets, loudspeakers, and troop deployment to Ukraine… a legal policy decision”
American experts pointed out that among the six investigation targets, the typical psychological warfare response of sending leaflets to the North, broadcasting through loudspeakers to the North, and the issue of sending troops to Ukraine, the basis of which is unclear, should be approached separately from the remaining three acts that the opposition party claims President Yoon attempted to provoke a response from the North: the Northern Limit Line (NLL) attack theory, the review of striking the origin of North Korean sewage balloons, and the infiltration of South Korean drones into Pyongyang.
Sydney Seiler, former National Intelligence Council National Intelligence Analyst for North Korea
Sydney Seiler, a former North Korea analyst for the U.S. National Intelligence Council, pointed out that including the expansion of anti-North Korea leaflets, loudspeaker operation, and deployment of troops to Ukraine in the special counsel's investigation could lead to "unnecessary security debate."
[Recording: Former analyst Siler] “Loudspeakers and leaflets because we know these are two areas that North Korea despises because they provide freedom and information and hope into North Korea, certainly areas that one can imagine advocating. And the idea of sending troops to Ukraine, you know, in order to defend democracy and respond to North Korea's aggression working with Russia to try to advance these illegitimate revisionist goals in Moscow you know, obviously something that requires consideration.
He continued, “Loudspeakers and leaflets, two areas that North Korea despises, are important because they convey freedom, information, and hope inside North Korea,” and said that the Yoon administration’s actions were “defensible areas.”
The issue of sending troops to Ukraine was also assessed as a measure to protect democracy and counter North Korea's aggression in pursuit of its illegal revisionist goals through cooperation with Russia.
He then diagnosed that “these were completely legitimate policy decisions” and that they were the approach chosen by the Yoon Seok-yeol government to protect security from threats from North Korea.
[Recording: Former Analyst Sylar] “That is a perfectly legitimate policy decision to be made. If a progressive, the president down the road were to decide the best way to ensure that waste balloons are not launched by North Korea is to take active measures to turn off loudspeakers and discourage leaflet launches by civilian organizations a perfectly legitimate policy choice.”
Former analyst Seiler explained that it would be a legitimate policy choice for a progressive government to take steps to prevent North Korean provocations, such as suspending loudspeakers and restricting the distribution of leaflets by civilian groups.
He said that while it is possible to have preferences or criticisms about policies, both approaches should be understood as efforts to address North Korea's security issues.
“Weak basis for sending troops to Ukraine… Concerns over weakening of support discussions”
The special prosecutor's investigation included the content that the Yoon Seok-yeol government was considering sending troops overseas, including to Ukraine, but there are also criticisms that the evidence is weak.
“Based on my conversations with South Korean and U.S. government officials, what I understand is that what South Korea was trying to do was to block further security cooperation between North Korea and Russia,” Jeremy Chan, a senior analyst at the Eurasia Group and a Korea expert, told VOA in a video conference, noting that South Korea was trying to respond without provoking North Korea by providing indirect support, rather than sending troops to Ukraine or directly providing weapons.
[Recording: Senior Analyst Chan] “My understanding of this based on conversations I've had with folks in the Korean government and here in Washington as well is that what South Korea is trying to do is to prevent further security cooperation between North Korea and Russia. Whether that means things like supplying weapons, directly, supplying troops directly they feel like they're reacting, not provoking North Korea on any of those fronts. And if anything, I think the general feeling in Washington and Europe is that South Korea has actually talked a lot more than it's actually done vis a vis providing weapons, anti-aircraft, canine, high waters, etcetera to Ukraine directly or providing troops. There have been no troops that have been provided. I think there's been some military intelligence folks that have helped out with some of the sort of, you know, translation exercises etcetera maybe targeting certain North Korean detachments within Kusk but I don't think there has been a large scale deployment. So in other words, the rhetoric, so the actions haven't matched the rhetoric. So in other words, I don't think it would be fair in this particular instance to blame Yun for trying to provoke a North Korean reaction.”
Analyst Chan evaluated that President Yoon's policy of showing interest in supporting and sending troops to Ukraine was greatly welcomed in the United States, citing the fact that the United States has encouraged its allies to support Ukraine.
He also predicted that the United States may become concerned if the issue of sending troops to or providing support for Ukraine is reduced to a topic of discussion in Korean politics in the future.
“North Korea Information Inflow, Core American Values… Concerns about Negative Impact on Cooperation”
Experts pointed out that the distribution of leaflets and the operation of loudspeakers to North Korea are in line with the U.S. government's main policy direction of inflowing information into North Korea, and that the Korean opposition party's move to include this in the special prosecutor's bill investigation could have a negative impact on related U.S.-South Korean cooperation.
[Recording: Deputy Representative Maxwell] “Those who are concerned with the ROK-US Alliance and security of South Korea and the United States would oppose this, and it is really dangerous to South Korea and the ROK-US Alliance. This kind of thinking goes against all that we stand for as our shared values between South Korea and the United States that of freedom, dignity, human rights for all. South Korea needs to send information into the North the United States needs to send information into the North. “The civil societies of the international community need to send information into the North.”
David Maxwell, Vice President, Asia Pacific Strategy Center
David Maxwell, vice president of the Asia-Pacific Strategy Center, expressed concern in a phone call with VOA on the 15th that this special prosecutor bill could pose a risk to the U.S.-South Korea alliance.
“This thinking runs counter to the values that the United States and South Korea share: freedom, dignity, and human rights for all,” said Deputy Secretary Maxwell, adding that South Korea and the United States should continue to encourage activities to funnel information into North Korea.
From Gitipong Parusha, a former U.S. Army psychological operations officer and former chief of psychological operations for U.S. Forces Korea, to a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, everyone described loudspeaker broadcasts as a “low-risk, effective tool” for communicating with North Koreans.
[Recording: Senior researcher from Parsha] “Absolutely, it's a critical capability. It's a low-risk capability that when we want to communicate to North Koreans, not just soldiers, but anybody within audio range. And I say low risk, because it doesn’t really put Korean soldiers’ lives at risk.”
The idea that information inflow through loudspeaker broadcasts and leaflets to North Korea is a powerful means of effectively responding to the North Korean regime's provocations and false propaganda has been raised several times by high-ranking U.S. government officials.
James Clapper, former Director of National Intelligence
Former U.S. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said in a 2016 speech at the Council on Foreign Relations while in office, “It bothers me that the U.S. is not utilizing intelligence, which is a great weapon,” and “Information is what North Korea is most concerned about.”
[Recording: Director Clapper] “What does bother me a bit is that we don’t capitalize on our great weapon, which is information. And that's something they worry about a lot. And their reaction to the loudspeakers being activated along the DMZ or the dropping of leaflets by NGOs over North Korea, and they go nuts when that happens. And so that is a great vulnerability that I don't think we have exploited.”
“If you have loudspeakers broadcasting across the DMZ or civilian groups dropping leaflets into North Korea, they (the North Korean leadership) will go absolutely crazy,” Clapper said at the time. “Information inflow is a huge vulnerability that we are not exploiting.”
“North Korea leaflets and loudspeakers, questionable effectiveness… many means of information transmission”
Some experts question the effectiveness of operating loudspeakers and spraying messages to North Korea, and point out that these measures, regardless of intention, have the potential to create unnecessary tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
Evans Revere, former Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs.
“There are questions about whether it is appropriate, necessary and useful to use loudspeakers to broadcast into North Korea,” Evans Revere, a former Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, told VOA by phone. “There are many ways to get information out to the North Korean people.”
[Recording: Former Deputy Assistant Secretary Revere] “The narrower question is whether it is appropriate and necessary and useful to broadcast using loudspeakers into North Korea. There are lots of ways to get information to the North Korean people.
I've mentioned some of them but over the years a lot of things have been done to get information North Korean into the North Korean population both from the South and over the Chinese border telephone droppings, providing sim cards and things like that. Balloons have been used, radio broadcasts have been used, attempted television broad there are a whole range of these things that could be done.
And for the South Korean government, the question has always been what is the most effective technique or what are the most effective techniques? And are there any of the things that South Korea or others would do, might do that could provoke a violent or confrontational response by North Korea? And that’s a judgment that every Korean administration has had to make at one point or another.”
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary Revere cited efforts in recent years to spread information to North Koreans along the inter-Korean border and the Sino-North Korean border, including the distribution of leaflets, the delivery of portable communication devices, and radio and television broadcasts.
He also emphasized that the U.S. supports its ally South Korea and plays a role in defending it from North Korea's provocations and attacks, and that the two governments must work together to determine what is best, as they share the core value of inflowing information into North Korea.
Robert Manning, Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council
Robert Manning, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, agreed with the need for information to flow into North Korea, but expressed concern about loudspeaker broadcasts.
[Senior Researcher Manning] “All means of exporting information into North Korea are not equal. Loudspeakers are a crude, inefficient, and provocative way of doing so that will only result in North Korea escalating tensions.”
“Not all means of sending information to North Korea are created equal, and loudspeakers are a crude, ineffective and provocative method,” said Manning, who said the result would only be to increase tensions with North Korea.
This is Cho Sang-jin from VOA News.
7. Hegseth calls North Korea a nuclear power, urges allies to share defense burden
When the nominee gets a briefing on Korea he should learn a few things.
South Korea is a global pivotal state that chooses to be a peaceful nuclear power, that is a partner in the arsenal of democracy of the free world and seeks to protect the rules based international order. And it is the 10th largest economy in the world and the 6th most powerful military (and north Korea is the 34th) according to the recent Global Fire Power INdex.
South Korea provides a larger percentage of its GDP on defense spending than any NATO ally and most all US allies.
And in addition it provides funding support for US troop presence in accordance with the SOFA at the highest level it has ever provided which is a result of the influence of the first Trump administration's demands.
In addition and outside of the scope of support for the US troops presence per the SOFA, it provided 93% of the funding (some $9.7 billion) for the construction of the largest military base outside of the continental US, Camp Humprhreys. Along with Osan and Kunsan air bases this provides the US with agility and flexibility for contingencies throughout the Indo-Pacific (and yes a controversial subject in South Korea but a necessary capability nonetheless).
South Korea has been backfilling 155mm ammunition to replenish US stocks that have been used to support Ukraine because the US defense industrial base has atrophied and cannot keep up with the demand.
Despite being a strong partner in the arsenal of defense and providing NATO interoperable and reliable military equipment to US friends, partners, and allies around the world, it is still buying advanced weapons systems from the US, e.g., the F-35.
And as nominee Hegseth has noted South Korea has the shipbuilding capacity and capability to support US shipping building requirements.
The South commits some 600,000 active duty forces to the defense of the South which is larger than the entire active duty US Army and Marine Corps.
And if north Korea miscalculates and attacks, the South will commit a force of more than 4.5 million soldiers while if the US commits completely to supporting the defense of South Korea it will commit some 700K troops from all services.
So I think it is fair to say that South Korea is sharing the defense burden.
Wednesday
January 15, 2025
dictionary + A - A
Hegseth calls North Korea a nuclear power, urges allies to share defense burden
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2025-01-15/national/diplomacy/Hegseth-calls-North-Korea-a-nuclear-power-urges-allies-to-share-defense-burden/2222684
Published: 15 Jan. 2025, 11:02
Pete Hegseth, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's nominee to be secretary of defense, leaves a Senate Committee on Armed Services confirmation hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., Jan. 14. [REUTERS/YONHAP]
U.S. Defense Secretary nominee Pete Hegseth has described North Korea as a "nuclear power" that poses a threat to global stability, while highlighting the need for U.S. allies to increase "burden sharing" in pursuit of what he termed "healthy" partnerships.
Hegseth made the remarks in written answers submitted to the Senate Armed Services Committee ahead of his confirmation hearing on Tuesday. Incoming President Donald Trump nominated Hegseth — a former Fox News Channel host and Army veteran with tours in Guantánamo Bay, Iraq and Afghanistan — in November.
Related Article
"The DPRK's status as a nuclear power, its intense focus on increasing the range of missiles capable of delivering nuclear warheads, and its growing cyber capabilities all pose a threat to stability on the Korean Peninsula, in the Indo-Pacific region, and globally," he wrote. DPRK is short for the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
"Those threats are of particular concern given the DPRK's proximity to close U.S. allies that base U.S. troops," he added.
Although Pyongyang is thought to have a nuclear arsenal following its six nuclear tests since 2006, U.S. officials have refused to publicly recognize North Korea as a nuclear power — a status that the recalcitrant regime has sought from the outside world.
His depiction of the North as a nuclear power might have reflected the reality that Pyongyang has named itself as a nuclear power in its Constitution, adopted a nuclear doctrine and shown no willingness to bargain away its nuclear arms.
But most U.S. officials have generally been reluctant to openly call Pyongyang a nuclear power as it can be construed as accepting and legitimizing what they have called an illicit weapons program and have a negative impact on America's efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation.
It remains unclear whether Hegseth's description of the North is shared by Trump and will be reflected in the incoming administration's policy approach.
Hegseth said that in recent years, North Korea, China and Russia have "significantly" expanded and modernized their nuclear force capabilities.
"These improvements, which include advances in warheads, delivery systems, and command and control systems, pose an increasing threat to the United States and its allies," he said.
In particular, he noted that Pyongyang is expanding its nuclear stockpile and improving miniaturization of warheads and road-mobile launch systems.
The nominee underscored the importance of missile defense against North Korea's evolving threats.
"Improving missile defense systems, especially for the Homeland, will be important to countering the DPRK threat, in addition to efforts to stem the growth of its nuclear and missile arsenals," he said.
He pointed out the strategic value of alliances and partnerships, but highlighted the need for allies' increased "burden sharing."
"The United States maintains the strongest alliance system in the world, and the common defense of our mutual interests with our allies and partners creates an unmatched strategic advantage," he said.
He went on to say, "Increased ally and partner defense spending and burden sharing are critical to ensuring that our relationships are not one-sided," he said.
His assertion on the need to raise burden sharing came as speculation persisted that Trump could seek renegotiation of last year's defense cost-sharing deal with South Korea to demand Seoul pay more for the upkeep of the 28,500-strong U.S. Forces Korea (USFK).
Regarding countries or actors operating in space that he perceives as a risk to the U.S., Hegseth mentioned Pyongyang's capabilities.
"The U.S. must monitor global anti-satellite capabilities. The United States, China, Russia and India have all successfully conducted anti-satellite capability tests," he said.
"We will remain vigilant regarding North Korea's space capabilities. If confirmed, I will ensure the new NDS addresses this critical warfighting domain, he added, referring to the Defense Department's national defense strategy, a strategic guidance.
Asked about the sufficiency of America's military readiness in various regions, Hegseth said that he will conduct a global force posture review if confirmed. This remark came amid concerns that Trump could consider paring down the number of U.S. troops in Korea or withdrawing them if South Korea does not raise its share of the cost for stationing USFK.
"We need to accelerate efforts to strengthen our force posture and increase operational capabilities in the Indo-Pacific, given China's historic and rapid military buildup and the urgent need to reestablish deterrence," he said. "If confirmed, I will review our posture in the Indo-Pacific and identify ways to prioritize such efforts."
During the confirmation hearing, he was pelted with questions about various allegations, including those of sexual assault. But he noted he is not a "perfect" person, while dismissing some of the allegations as part of a "smear campaign."
Yonhap
8. North Korea's suicide soldiers pose new challenge for Ukraine in war with Russia
But how long can a force of suicde soldiers be sustained? (said somewhat with tongue in cheek - eventually the 1.4 million man army that is the 4th largest in the world will used used up).
Sadly (and callously) this willingness to die does relieve Ukraine of some logistical challenges in caring for EPWs and enemy wounded.
North Korea's suicide soldiers pose new challenge for Ukraine in war with Russia
PUBLISHED ONJanuary 14, 2025 8:40 PM
asiaone.com · January 15, 2025
SEOUL — After a battle in Russia's snowy western region of Kursk this week, Ukrainian special forces scoured the bodies of more than a dozen slain North Korean enemy soldiers.
Among them, they found one still alive. But as they approached, he detonated a grenade, blowing himself up, according to a description of the fighting posted on social media by Ukraine's Special Operations Forces on Monday.
The forces said their soldiers escaped the blast uninjured. Reuters could not verify the incident.
But it is among mounting evidence from the battlefield, intelligence reports and testimonies of defectors that some North Korean soldiers are resorting to extreme measures as they support Russia's three-year war with Ukraine.
"Self-detonation and suicides: that's the reality about North Korea," said Kim, a 32-year-old former North Korean soldier who defected to the South in 2022, requesting he only be identified by his surname due to fears of reprisals against his family left in the North.
"These soldiers who left home for a fight there have been brainwashed and are truly ready to sacrifice themselves for Kim Jong-un," he added, referring to the reclusive North Korean leader.
Kim, introduced to Reuters by Seoul-based human rights group NK Imprisonment Victims' Family Association, said he had worked for North Korea's military in Russia for about seven years up until 2021 on construction projects to earn foreign currency for the regime.
Ukrainian and Western assessments say Pyongyang has deployed some 11,000 soldiers to support Moscow's forces in Russia's western Kursk region, which Ukraine seized in a surprise incursion last year. More than 3,000 have been killed or injured, according to Kyiv.
North Korea's mission to the United Nations in Geneva did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Moscow and Pyongyang initially dismissed reports about the North's troop deployment as "fake news". But Russian president Vladimir Putin in October did not deny that North Korean soldiers were currently in Russia and a North Korean official said any such deployment would be lawful.
Ukraine this week released videos of what it said were two captured North Korean soldiers. One of the soldiers expressed a desire to stay in Ukraine, and the other to return to North Korea, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said.
'One last bullet'
North Korea's deployment to Russia is its first major involvement in a war since the 1950-53 Korean War. North Korea reportedly sent a much smaller contingent to the Vietnam War and to the civil conflict in Syria.
US has warned the experience in Russia will make North Korea "more capable of waging war against its neighbours."
North Korea's leader Kim has previously hailed his army as "the strongest in the world", according to state media. Propaganda videos released by the regime in 2023 showed bare-chested soldiers running across snowy fields, jumping into frozen lakes and punching blocks of ice for winter training.
But a South Korean lawmaker briefed by the country's spy agency on Monday said that the numbers of North Korean soldiers wounded and killed on the battlefield suggests they are unprepared for modern warfare, such as drone attacks, and may be being used as "cannon fodder" by Russia.
More worryingly there are signs these troops have been instructed to commit suicide, he said.
"Recently, it has been confirmed that a North Korean soldier was in danger of being captured by the Ukrainian military, so he shouted for General Kim Jong-un and pulled out a grenade to try to blow himself up, but was killed," Lee Seong-kweun, who sits on the South Korean parliament's intelligence committee, said.
Memos carried by slain North Korean soldiers also show that North Korean authorities emphasized self-destruction and suicide before capture, he added.
When asked about further details of the cases he referred to, he declined to elaborate saying it was information from Ukraine shared with South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS). NIS did not answer calls seeking comment on Tuesday.
Suicides by soldiers or spies not only show loyalty to the Kim Jong-un regime but are also a way to protect their families left at home, Yang Uk, a defence analyst at the Asan Institute of Policy Studies said.
Ukraine's Zelensky said on Sunday Kyiv is ready to hand over captured North Korean soldiers to their leader Kim Jong-un if he can facilitate their exchange for Ukrainians held captive in Russia.
For some North Korean soldiers, however, being captured and sent back to Pyongyang would be seen as a fate worse than death, said Kim, the North Korean defector and former soldier.
"Becoming a prisoner of war means treason. Being captured means you are a traitor. Leave one last bullet, that's what we are talking about in the military," he said.
asiaone.com · January 15, 2025
9. Even the 'AI manipulation theory'… Hot interest in North Korean military prisoner video
This is a Google translation of an RFA report.
Thanks to Jamin Anderson for this reporting that we are not seeing in the mainstream media.
Even the 'AI manipulation theory'… Hot interest in North Korean military prisoner video
WASHINGTON-Jamin Anderson andersonj@rfa.org
2025.01.15
A photo posted by a netizen claiming that the prisoner has six fingers (left), and the corresponding scene from the original video (right)
/ X, Captured video from the Ukrainian Security Service (Face mosaic removed by RFA)
00:00 /04:08
Anchor : The video of North Korean prisoners of war recently released by the Ukrainian government is a hot topic . Some netizens have raised suspicions that the video was manipulated by AI ( artificial intelligence ) , pointing out the shape of the prisoners' fingers . RFA checked using an AI interpretation program . Reporter Jamin Anderson reports .
[ Interpreter ] Do you want to go back to North Korea ?
[ North Korean Army ] Are all Ukrainian people good ?
[ Interpreter ] Do you think Ukraine is okay ? I like it here .
[ North Korean Soldier ] I want to live here .
This is a video of a North Korean prisoner of war released by the Ukrainian government on the 11th .
The Ukrainian military is seen interrogating two North Korean soldiers captured in the Kursk region of western Russia on the 9th .
Some netizens questioned the authenticity of the video, making claims such as , “ He is not North Korean, but from a Russian minority ,” and “ It is not North Korean speech . ”
There were even suspicions that the video was fake and generated by AI .
This is a scene that was posted on the online social networking service X on the 14th .
A North Korean prisoner of war is drinking water from a cup he holds in his left hand. / Captured video from the Ukrainian Security Service (RFA’s own mosaic of faces)
A prisoner, believed to be born in 1999 , is shown drinking water through a straw , with one user claiming the footage was generated by AI , saying his left hand has six fingers .
As AI technology still has limitations in expressing details of the human body , there are frequent cases of AI-generated images or videos with an abnormally large number of fingers or unnatural hand shapes . This user claimed that the video was manipulated based on this .
I looked for the original video.
The footage, which was released on the 11th by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and is 3 minutes and 19 seconds long , contains the problematic scene at around the 35- second mark .
In the footage, the prisoner's left hand is blackened and dirty, and the white area where his palm and wrist meet may have created an optical illusion that it was his sixth finger .
Five fingers are clearly visible. A North Korean prisoner nods while listening to an interpreter. / Captured video from the Ukrainian Security Service (RFA’s own mosaic of faces)
However , at the 2:23 mark , the prisoner is clearly identified as having five fingers .
The prisoner in the video appears to have been wounded in the upper body, with his shirt draped over his shoulders, and his face is bandaged, so he cannot speak, but only nods or shakes his head to answer Ukrainian military questions .
In the latter part of the video, he is also seen holding a pen with his left hand and writing something.
The Countering Disinformation Center of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine has not responded to RFA's inquiries about the authenticity of this video as of Wednesday .
Results of photo and video analysis using Hive Moderation and Deepware. / Hive Moderation, Deepware capture (Face mosaic processed by RFA)
We analyzed the video and high-resolution photos of the prisoners using AI interpretation programs used by media outlets .
Deepware AI video reader reports “ No Deepfake Detected ”
Results of photo analysis using Site Engine and AI image detector. / Site Engine, AI image detector (Face mosaic is processed by RFA itself)
Sightengine, which analyzed the high-resolution photos released by President Zelensky, assessed the possibility of manipulation at 1% , while Hive Moderation rated it at 0.3%, indicating that it was an original and not manipulated .
On the other hand, the AI Image Detector analyzed the possibility that the photo was taken by a human at 74.11% and the possibility that it was created by AI at 30.77% , determining that it was “ moderately likely created by human . ”
It is difficult to be 100% certain because each AI reader has different performance and technology , but when the analysis results are combined, it appears unlikely that the video and photo were manipulated by AI .
Captured North Korean Soldiers: “ If You Surrender, You Will Be Ordered to Shoot to Kill ”
Zelensky Proposes ‘ Prisoner Exchange ’ to Kim Jong-un
“ North Korean troops dispatched to Russia must respect their intention to ‘ go to South Korea ’ ”
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation stated about the video, “Russian propaganda material seeks to deny the fact that the Ukrainian Defense Forces captured North Korean soldiers . ”
On the 13th, two days after the video was released , the center warned through X that “propaganda materials are spreading claims that the detainees are Russians from the Republic of Tuva or South Koreans , or that the interrogation video is fabricated . ”
Meanwhile, President Zelensky released additional footage of the interrogation of another North Korean prisoner of war who was not injured on the 14th , which is 4 minutes and 16 seconds long .
Editor Park Jeong-woo, Web Editor Lee Gyeong-ha
10. Pax Polska: Poland is Primed to Become the Backbone of Europe’s Security
With the help of a partner in the Arsenal of Democracy, South Korea.
Excerpt:
Poland has favored American and Korean hardware to replace dated Soviet equipment. For its artillery, Poland bought Korean K9 howitzers, K239 Chunmoo systems, and American High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS). For armor, Poland chose the Korean K2 Black Panther, the American M1A1FEP Abrams, and the M1A2 SEPv3 Abrams. This adds to its existing fleet of German Leopard II tanks.
Pax Polska: Poland is Primed to Become the Backbone of Europe’s Security
https://smallwarsjournal.com/2025/01/16/pax-polska-poland-is-primed/
by Tareq Alotaiba
|
01.16.2025 at 06:00am
An attack on one is an attack on all. The principle of collective defense is at the heart of NATO—an institution that is a product and pillar of the liberal world order. NATO is a congruence of different states, and that feature enables the alliance to share resources and create a formidable defensive line against aggression. The combined force of NATO allies acts as deterrence, but that deterrence does not work if a pass-the-buck mentality takes hold amongst allies. Russia’s renewed aggression has spurned a surge of investment in European military readiness, and Poland is emerging as one of NATO’s top spending and rising military powers. Economic growth in Poland has given it the resources it needs to invest in its military, and its position on the eastern edge of the alliance, bordering Russia, has helped it generate the political will necessary to build one of NATO’s largest standing armies. Undeniably, Poland’s prioritization of defense is turning it into a bulwark in the east.
One of the core principles at the heart of the US-led rules-based international order is the sanctity of sovereignty and the aversion to wars of territorial conquest. Russia has repeatedly challenged those conventions and, more recently, shattered them with its latest invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. This Russian aggression in Europe has rekindled interest in NATO and revitalized its relevance. It is understandable, then, that proponents of the liberal order react strongly to President Trump’s hostile rhetoric against NATO. As an institution, NATO contributed to the staying power of the peace of Pax Americana—the period after the end of World War II (WWII), which remains the most peaceful in modern history. Yet, looking past the rhetoric, the crux of Trump’s disdain is his belief that the US’s NATO allies are freeloading at the expense of the American taxpayer.
President Trump’s rhetoric has triggered a sense of urgency in Europe. European NATO partners have started increasing their military spending and preparedness in response to what they see as the unreliability of the US as a security partner under a second Trump presidency. Poland is chief among the European countries that are building up their self-reliance. As Trump put it in 2020, “Poland is one of only eight that is current with the money that they are supposed to be paying … the United States is defending a lot of countries that are delinquent … I never feel too good about that.”
Is Europe Passing-the-Buck?
In 1951, President Eisenhower said, “If, in 10 years, all American troops stationed in Europe for national defense purposes have not been returned to the United States, then this whole project [NATO] will have failed.” The United States is a different country now. It has a military presence in over 170 countries on all continents except Antarctica. Europe is an important front for American security. The NATO alliance as an institution enforces that security and fosters political goodwill amongst its members. However, there has been wavering and varying European commitment to spending on military readiness, which has triggered frustration in Washington.
There hasn’t always been an issue of European commitment to defense spending. In an emergency, NATO has a history of stepping up. During the Cold War, European NATO members spent over 3% of their GDP on defense, with the UK spending around 7% in the 1950s. In 2023, only ten of the 32 NATO countries’ spending was at the 2% of GDP goal. The Russian invasion of Ukraine changed that, and by 2024, 23 of the 32 countries had reached that goal, with a collective $1.47 trillion spent on defense.
The sense of urgency felt in Europe is not uniform. The countries closest to Russia—the Baltic and Nordic states have prioritized defense, while Germany and other wealthy European countries are underperforming. If all NATO countries spent 2% of GDP on defense, that would materialize in approximately $43.5 billion in extra funding. Additionally, if Germany, France, and the UK alone spent at US levels, that would generate an additional US$ 132 billion in spending. (Note: The figures cited in this paragraph are calculated based on the difference of military spending as a percentage of GDP from the 2% goal and applied to the latest available GDP data in current US dollars.)
Poland stands out among the European countries that increased spending after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Poland is one of only two NATO countries that outspends the United States. It currently spends over 4% of GDP. The increase in spending has allowed it to expand its armed forces to 216,000 personnel in 2024. Poland now has the third-largest NATO standing army after the US and Turkey, beating larger economies like Germany, France, and the UK. Despite its current military size, Poland aims to increase its armed forces further to have the largest European fighting force. It stated that it is preparing for a scenario of “full-scale conflict” with Russia and its allies.
How is Poland Preparing?
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has provided Poland and the rest of NATO with a laboratory for observing Russian capabilities. It enables them to tailor their defense development to address the Russian threat. Poland is strategically selecting equipment to counter Russian aggression. Warsaw is investing in armor, air defense, and artillery as it learns from Russian tactics on the ground.
Poland has favored American and Korean hardware to replace dated Soviet equipment. For its artillery, Poland bought Korean K9 howitzers, K239 Chunmoo systems, and American High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS). For armor, Poland chose the Korean K2 Black Panther, the American M1A1FEP Abrams, and the M1A2 SEPv3 Abrams. This adds to its existing fleet of German Leopard II tanks.
Regarding air defense and air power, Poland ordered the American Integrated Battle Command System (IBCS) and the Patriot system. This supplements its British Common Anti-air Modular Missile Extended Range (CAMM-ER) surface-to-air missiles and their launchers. The Polish Air Force, however, still needs upgrading. It has ordered new training jets and bought used Saab 340 Airborne Early Warning (AEW) aircraft equipped with Erieye radars from the UAE—giving its Air Force early warning capability. For its offensive capabilities, Poland ordered 32 F-35A Lightning II jets.
Poland is also getting involved with large NATO countries to develop more costly programs that fill strategic security gaps in Europe. In 2024, France, Germany, Italy, and Poland signed a letter of intent to jointly develop a long-range precision-strike system, the European Long-range Strike Approach (ELSA) program. Once active, the system would supplement Poland’s modernization efforts with advanced counterattack capabilities, as the system intends to be a ground-launched cruise missile with a 600 to 1,200-mile range.
Poland borders Russia and Belarus. This provides the logistical advantage of being close to a potential front in a war with Russia. The proximity has enabled it to avoid using resources for complicated logistics. Additionally, Poland chose not to spend on support functions like intelligence, relying instead on its NATO partners with established capabilities to fill that need.
Despite all the hard work, Poland’s military modernization is still incomplete. Although they have less manpower, militaries like those of the UK, France, and Italy still out-punch Poland in terms of equipment and experience. Moreover, France and the UK have nuclear weapons. The gap between Poland and its European partners will nonetheless continue to shrink as Poland’s economic development and modernization efforts continue.
What Drivers Enable Poland to Modernize its Military?
Poland has a long history of subjugation by larger European powers, the last of which was the Soviet Union. Poland’s history of invasion is etched in the country’s national memory, adding to its long-held distrust of Russia. Poland is also close to the war in Ukraine. Images of the impact of war on Ukrainian civilians have given the government the political capital to prioritize defense spending.
Likewise, military development cannot be divorced from economic development. European Union (EU) membership has expanded the Polish economy, enabling it to take on capital-intensive projects like military modernization. Since joining the EU, Poland has received over €250 billion in structural funds. In 2004, the Polish GDP per Capita was 48% of the EU average—it is now at 82%. Its GDP grew from $255 billion in 2004 to $845 billion, an increase of over 230% in twenty years. Furthermore, Poland’s GDP growth rate in 2024 was 3% and is projected to stay around that level into the near term. Poland has become the sixth-largest contributor to the EU economy.
Poland is also looking to the future. Spending on R&D increased from 0.6% of GDP in 2004 to 1.5% in 2024, an increase of over 160%. In the same period, EU-wide spending on R&D increased by less than 30%. In 2022, Poland had over 300,000 people working in research. The country’s efforts to grow its internal defense industry drive part of the surge in support to R&D.
Poland is both an emerging military power in Europe and an emerging economic power. As its economy continues to develop, so will its capacity to strengthen its armed forces. The institution of the Polish armed forces and the increased spending on them are received positively by the Polish people. Unlike in Germany, there is national pride in strengthening Polish military capabilities. This will continue to sustain high investments in defense.
Challenges Facing Poland
Despite the increased spending on research and development, Poland still has a challenge with innovating. With over 7,400 entities conducting research, Polish R&D has yet to materialize in significant innovations. Poland remains a net importer of technology and equipment despite having the population to support a local industry. Years of neglect and underfunding have curtailed the Polish defense industry’s production capacity. State-owned PGZ, a holding company of 50 defense companies, is the dominant local firm—only around 10% of Polish military spending went to it. (Note: Calculated using total contracts given to PGZ and total Polish defense spending of that year.)
As Poland aims to have the largest European standing army, its shrinking demographics will be a long-term challenge for the state. Poland has had net population declines for years, driven by its citizens’ immigration and decreasing birth rates. Its current population of under 37 million people has decreased by nearly 2 million since its peak in the 1990s. 2023 marked the lowest number of births in modern Polish history, with an average birthrate of 1.2 children per woman.
Poland is addressing the challenges it faces. Regarding innovation, the government is providing substantial funding, with support for higher education and science increasing by a record 22% in 2023. For the demographics, as Poland continues to develop economically, the opportunities in a growing economy are attracting its expatriate and emigrated citizenry to return home. Additionally, the war in Ukraine helped drive an increase in consumption-driven growth, as 2.5 million of Poland’s estimated 3 million migrant workers are Ukrainians, of which a little under 1 million are refugees.
Conclusion
Detractors may disagree with President Trump’s rhetoric against NATO. However, from an American perspective, the argument is sound. Despite the recent increases in defense spending, NATO’s current levels are not enough. Secretary-General Mark Rutte said, “He is right about this,” when discussing Trump’s demands for increased European spending. Understandably, President Trump’s rhetoric is causing uncertainty in Europe. Uncertainty also breeds opportunity. The wealthier states in Europe are still some of the world’s largest and most innovative economies. If they focus their resources on defense, NATO can reemerge stronger and more relevant than ever. For now, however, countries on the front line, like Poland, are building their self-reliance on security.
On Poland’s Independence Day in 2022, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said, “The Polish army must be so powerful that it does not have to fight due to its strength alone.” Poland is beginning a long process of modernizing its military and turning it into a major military power and deterrent against aggression. The change in the economic fortunes of Poland and the invasion of Ukraine spurred a boon in the resources and political will necessary for military modernization. Poland’s investments in the latest military hardware and build-up of its manpower and readiness have turned it into a formidable strength. Additionally, its location bordering Russia on the eastern flank of NATO allies makes it indispensable for European security. Poland’s defensive capabilities have grown by leaps over the past few years. It remains to be seen if Poland’s efforts will bring about Pax Polska in the East.
Tags: alliances, global security, NATO, Poland
About The Author
- Tareq Alotaiba
- Tareq Alotaiba has 12 years of experience in economic policy, foreign affairs, and national security with the Abu Dhabi and UAE Federal governments. Tareq is a columnist for Semafor and has previously served on the board of the UAE defense firm International Golden Group board. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Political Science from the University of British Columbia. He is a master’s candidate in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University.
11. Editorial: Upholding rule of law is key to South Korea's stability during unprecedented turmoil
Editorial: Upholding rule of law is key to South Korea's stability during unprecedented turmoil
https://www.chosun.com/english/opinion-en/2025/01/16/WBNUTFMECRHI5BCLPE75LXMLEE/
By The Chosunilbo
Published 2025.01.16. 09:04
President Yoon Suk-yeol, arrested on insurrection charges, enters the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO) in Gwacheon, Gyeonggi Province, on Jan. 15. /News1
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol was arrested on Jan. 15 by the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO) on charges of insurrection, just 43 days after declaring martial law. This marks the first time in the nation’s history that a sitting president has been detained and investigated as a criminal suspect. “While I acknowledge the investigation is unlawful, I have decided to comply with the CIO’s summons to prevent bloodshed,” Yoon said. The dramatic scene of police breaching barricades around the presidential residence and escorting the president to the CIO was broadcast worldwide, drawing significant global attention. The rapid sequence of events—ranging from the military’s confrontation with parliament to ongoing protests for and against impeachment and Yoon’s arrest—has plunged the nation into turmoil. The absence of bloodshed stands as the sole point of relief in an otherwise unprecedented crisis.
The chaos began with Yoon’s sudden imposition of martial law. However, efforts by the National Assembly, judiciary, and investigative authorities to address the crisis have only deepened the disorder, as political agendas have taken precedence over adherence to the law. Following his arrest, Yoon claimed in a public statement that allegations of election fraud had motivated his declaration of martial law—a justification that was notably absent from his initial proclamation. “There is overwhelming evidence of election fraud,” he stated. If such evidence exists, it must be promptly submitted to the Constitutional Court, prosecutors, and law enforcement for verification. If proven, the allegations could shift the narrative entirely. If not, the president’s reliance on unfounded conspiracy theories, amplified through social media platforms like YouTube, would represent a critical lapse in judgment.
Meanwhile, political parties remain entrenched in short-term strategies, showing little regard for the nation’s stability. The Democratic Party, eager to secure an advantage in the next presidential election, perplexed the public by withdrawing insurrection charges—the primary basis of Yoon’s impeachment. Following the impeachment of acting President Han Duck-soo, the party has now turned its focus to Han’s successor, Choi Sang-mok, with similar threats. In attempting to broaden the scope of the special prosecutor’s investigation to include allegations of treason, they risk undermining the military’s operational stability. The People Power Party, on the other hand, has shifted to defending martial law as public sentiment sours against the Democratic Party’s aggressive tactics.
The Constitutional Court must remain steadfast against political interference and deliver a fair, decisive ruling on the impeachment—one that both sides can accept. Additionally, it must address critical matters such as the required quorum for Han’s impeachment as acting president and expedite the second trial of Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung for election law violations to help restore stability. Any delays or perceptions of partiality risk further eroding public trust in the judiciary’s ability to fairly adjudicate cases involving Yoon and Lee. Upholding the rule of law is imperative. This is the only path to demonstrating to the international community that South Korea remains governed by law and order.
Editorial
12. The End of the North Korean Soldiers Brainwashed with the Suicide Spirit
This is a Google translation of an RFA report.
[Topic of Topic] The End of the North Korean Soldiers Brainwashed with the Suicide Spirit
https://www.rfa.org/korean/weekly_program/d654c81cc131-ac11/north-korean-military-self-destructive-spirit-01152025090350.html
Seoul-Lee Ye-jin leey@rfa.org
2025.01.15
North Korean soldiers deployed in Kursk fighting against drones [Capture from video distributed by Ukrainian military]
/Yonhap News
00:00 /09:20
SNS is an internet communication space where new information is gathered faster than TV news . What is the news that is trending on Korean SNS right now ? analyzing news about North and South Korea that Koreans are interested in Hello , I am Lee Ye-jin .
Kim Geum-hyeok : Hello ? I am Kim Geum-hyeok, a current affairs commentator from Pyongyang .
Reporter : Recently, we were able to hear the voices of North Korean soldiers who were captured while deployed in Russia . We were also able to see how the North Korean authorities and Russia are treating them . What will be the fate of the increasing number of prisoners ? This is today's main news .
Kim Geum- hyeok : Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been uploading videos of a captured North Korean soldier to social media . According to the videos, the soldier, a 20- year-old rifleman and one of the two North Korean soldiers captured in Kursk, southwestern Russia, on the 11th , listened to and answered questions from Ukrainian investigators through a Korean interpreter . The North Korean soldier said that he did not even know that he was fighting against Ukraine and that he was simply training as if it were a real battle , following his commander's instructions . The soldier also said that when the captured Ukrainian soldier was made to choose between a " house " and a " gun " on a piece of paper , and that he was instructed to let him go if he chose the house, and kill him if he chose the gun .
Reporter : In the first released video, what stood out the most was the response of one of the two captured North Korean soldiers, when asked if he wanted to return to North Korea, who said, " Do you like Ukrainian people ? I want to live here , " but then changed his words, as if his feelings had become complicated, to , " If they tell me to go home, I'll go , but if not, I'll stay here . " Mr. Geumhyeok , you've probably seen the video . What do you think this soldier's state of mind is right now ?
Kim Geum-hyeok : I also had mixed feelings while watching the videos. I think the biggest feeling was regret . The soldiers who are currently injured and captured must be very confused . I also got the feeling that they are not yet fully aware of their situation . The extent of their injuries was also serious, so I thought it would be important to first receive treatment .
As the soldier described earlier , North Korea is known to have imposed stricter ideological education on soldiers dispatched to the Russian front, especially to avoid being captured . As a result, many North Korean soldiers have not hesitated to take their own lives by detonating suicide bombs in crisis situations, and many such cases have been reported . As a result, it is possible that these soldiers who are now alive are under silent pressure .
Common sense tells us that these are soldiers who have absolutely no reason to die, and that North Korea is demanding that they commit suicide just because they are captured. However, these soldiers have all been brainwashed, and since they have only recently escaped North Korea's persistent brainwashing, they may have various thoughts about their survival . At times like this, I think we need to take measures to ensure their psychological stability . For example, we need to help them escape North Korea's brainwashing through detailed psychological counseling .
Reporter : You said they are brainwashed . On the 14th , Kyodo News reported that North Korean soldiers deployed to the Ukraine were blowing up grenades near their faces . They said that there were close to 20 cases of people taking their own lives with grenades when they ran out of bullets or were injured and could not escape . Can we say that North Korean soldiers are brainwashed to the point where they can take their own lives ?
Kim Geum-hyeok : From North Korea's perspective, this is not a strange order at all. North Korea teaches the spirit of the bomb and the spirit of suicide not only to soldiers but also to young middle and high school students . In other words, they are taught to be ready to die for the Kim family anytime, anywhere , and to " die happily " when that happens . I think this incident has once again revealed the true nature of North Korea's extremely irrational and pre-modern brainwashing education . In particular, North Korea, which dispatched its troops to the Kursk Front, seems to have great resistance to the idea that if they were captured, the reality of the North Korean military would be exposed and the internal affairs of North Korea would be gradually revealed to the outside world . First of all, North Korea basically does not recognize the dispatch of Russian troops, so if the prisoners change their minds and start making critical remarks about the North Korean regime, wouldn't North Korea be in real trouble? It 's only a matter of time before the North Korean people learn the truth about this incident . Just looking at the problems that have been revealed right now, the North Korean military's radio tactics and cannon fodder tactics are being criticized , as well as militaristic orders that force soldiers to die unconditionally , and the incompetence that emphasizes only unconditional charging without even the minimum protective equipment . If it were to be reported within North Korea that the North Korean military, which they touted as the best in the world, is actually a rabble of such an utterly absurd standard, North Korea would be shaken greatly . That is why North Korea is hiding these facts by not allowing any prisoners of war , and by forcing prisoners to die if they are . It is a truly inhumane and inhumane order . They must be held accountable .
[ Hot Topic ] Kim Jong-un's Will Embedded in New Hypersonic Missile
[ Hot Topic ] North Korea in 2025 as seen through the year-end plenary session
Reporter : While President Zelensky proposed a prisoner exchange to North Korea , the British daily Guardian reported that the best option for North Korean soldiers captured in Ukraine would be to start a new life in South Korea . What do you think about this ?
Kim Geum-hyeok : Of course. First of all, if these two soldiers return to North Korea, their life or death is difficult to guarantee . They disobeyed North Korea’s order to commit suicide and made statements about North Korea’s internal affairs, so from North Korea’s perspective, they are traitors . It will be difficult to tolerate .
The international community needs to persuade Ukraine on this matter . It is necessary to give these two young men, who have lived their entire lives in a dictatorship without any freedom and with their slightest human rights trampled, a chance to live in the free world . Of course, their will is the most important . If they clearly express their will to return, we will have no choice but to send them back . However, if they are unable to escape a kind of brainwashing and choose to return simply out of fear, it seems necessary to take time to persuade them sufficiently . There is no question that North Korea or South Korea is a better place to live and live humanely .
It doesn’t have to be South Korea . If they decide to go to South Korea, their remaining families may suffer . If that is the case, then seeking asylum in a third country other than South Korea is also an option . The important thing is to give them a chance to live a new life , to live happily as dignified human beings . I have seen people claiming that this is a violation of the Geneva Convention , but if these two prisoners choose to live freely , I think that is also an act of humanity that must be protected , and it can take precedence over the Geneva Convention . The important thing is the expression of free will, and before that, we need to provide them with many choices .
Reporter : With the inauguration of US President-elect Trump just a week away , the Battle of Kursk is becoming increasingly fierce . The number of North Korean troops deployed to the battlefield is expected to increase , and the number of prisoners of war will also increase . What else is likely to happen in the future ?
Kim Geum-hyeok : President Trump will take office in a week. However, I don’t think the Russo-Ukrainian War will end anytime soon . As long as Kursk is still under Ukrainian control, Russia cannot end the war . Also, North Korea has more room to intervene in the war because the longer the Russo-Ukrainian War continues, the more they can hold on to Russia . Of the 12,000 North Korean soldiers who were dispatched first, more than 4,000 were killed or injured . We can see that the overall combat power has drastically decreased . Additional deployments may be essential . North Korea is clearly gaining considerable combat experience while enduring many casualties . In particular, its experience in modern warfare and drones are important assets that cannot be ignored . That is why North Korea is likely to dispatch more troops to accumulate war experience and use that to increase the intensity of its threats against South Korea and the United States . This is why this war will not end easily .
That's all for today's news. So far, it's been Hot Topic Gap , MC Lee Ye-jin , and current affairs commentator Kim Geum-hyeok from Pyongyang . Thank you .
Editor Yang Seong-won, Web Editor Kim Sang-il
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
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