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Quotes of the Day:
"The quality of a person's life is in direct proportion to their commitment to excellence, regardless of their chosen field of endeavor."
– Vince Lombardi
“One's life has value so long as one attributes value to the life of others, by means of love, friendship, indignation, compassion.”
– Simone de Beauvoir
"When you come out of the storm you won't be the same person who walked in. That's what this storm is all about."
– Haruki Marukami
1. Putin meets N. Korean FM amid deepening military cooperation
2. S. Korea, U.S., Japan stage joint naval drill involving aircraft carrier
3. Defense chief says N. Korea appears to have made 'some progress' in hypersonic missile development
4. Unification minister visits front-line Army unit amid heightened tensions
5. Arsenal of Autocracy: North Korea and Iran are arming Russia in Ukraine
6. North Korea's Most Advanced Drones Reemerge, Solid Fuel IRBM Tested
7. Train accident in North Korea kills more than 400 people
8. N Korea's Kim abandons unification goal with South
9. Kim Jong Un urges defining S. Korea as primary foe in its constitution
10. Kim Jong Un calls for removal of unification concept
11. North Korea continues its provocations
12. After a rough run, North Korea could at last find itself 'sitting pretty' in the new year with both Russia and China courting it, Korea watcher says
13. Pyongyang likely to be Putin's 1st destination after May inauguration: experts
14. Putin meets North's top diplomat, but Kremlin light on detail
15. S Korea implements new sanctions amid Pyongyang threatsS Korea implements new sanctions amid Pyongyang threats
16. Lawyers accuse China of repatriating 100 more North Korean defectorsLawyers accuse China of repatriating 100 more North Korean defectors
17. South Korea’s spy chief vows to win public trustSouth Korea’s spy chief vows to win public trust
1. Putin meets N. Korean FM amid deepening military cooperation
Two of the Axis of Authoritarians and their transactional relationship.
Putin meets N. Korean FM amid deepening military cooperation | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · January 17, 2024
MOSCOW, Jan. 17 (Yonhap) -- Russian President Vladimir Putin has met with North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui amid deepening military cooperation between the two countries.
Putin met with Choe late Tuesday and was briefed on the results of her talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov earlier in the day, the Kremlin said, without providing further details.
Choe has been on a three-day visit to Russia at Lavrov's invitation.
The trip came amid deepening military cooperation between the two countries, with the North providing Russia with arms for use in its war with Ukraine in exchange for Russia providing technical assistance for Pyongyang's weapons programs.
During his talks with Choe, Lavrov expressed appreciation for Pyongyang's support in what he called Russia's "special military operation" in Ukraine, while Choe said the North will thoroughly fulfill agreements reached at September's summit between Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
On Monday, the Kremlin said it intends to further develop its partnership with North Korea in all areas, calling the North its "closest neighbor" and "partner."
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov also said Moscow hopes for a visit by Putin to North Korea to take place in the "foreseeable future," adding that further coordination, including its timing, will be discussed through diplomatic channels.
North Korean state media has not yet reported on the meeting between Putin and Choe.
Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) meets with North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui (R) at the Kremlin on Jan. 16, 2024, in this photo provided by his office. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · January 17, 2024
2. S. Korea, U.S., Japan stage joint naval drill involving aircraft carrier
Trilateral readiness. Trilateral interoperability. Trilateral cooperation. Trilateral defense. Trilateral deterrence.
(LEAD) S. Korea, U.S., Japan stage joint naval drill involving aircraft carrier | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Eun-jung · January 17, 2024
(ATTN: UPDATES with USFK commander's remarks in paras 8-11; ADDS photo)
By Kim Eun-jung
SEOUL, Jan. 17 (Yonhap) -- South Korea, the United States and Japan have jointly conducted naval drills in waters south of the Korean Peninsula following North Korea's recent launch of a hypersonic missile, the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said Wednesday.
The joint exercise took place in southeastern waters off Jeju Island involving nine warships of the three nations, including the U.S. nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson, from Monday to Wednesday.
The South Korean Navy's Aegis combat system-equipped destroyers and the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force's Kongo-class destroyers joined the maritime exercise.
It began a day after North Korea test-fired a solid-fuel intermediate-range ballistic missile carrying a hypersonic warhead into the East Sea in its first missile launch this year.
"The exercise is aimed at bolstering the three nations' deterrence and response capabilities against North Korea's nuclear and missile threat as well as maritime threats," the JCS said in a release.
"It also focused on responding to maritime security threats, including transporting weapons of mass destruction, and enhancing the trilateral cooperation in establishing the rules-based international order," it added.
South Korea, the United States and Japan jointly conduct naval drills in waters south of the Korean Peninsula, in this photo provided the Joint Chiefs of Staff on Jan. 17, 2024. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
It marks the first trilateral drill held after Washington and its Asian allies launched a real-time sharing system for North Korea's missile launches and agreed to jointly establish a multiyear exercise plan to better counter Pyongyang's evolving threat.
On the first day of the exercise, JCS Chairman Adm. Kim Myung-soo and Gen. Paul LaCamera, the commander of United States Forces Korea, visited the aircraft carrier.
"The sailors conducted critical training to continue to enhance interoperability among our navies," LaCamera, who also serves as the commander of the United Nations Command and the South Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command, said in a release.
"Trilateral exercises like these help to maintain readiness of our naval forces and sharpen our combined skills," he added.
Kim also highlighted the importance of the trilateral cooperation and vowed to step up the combined posture in accordance with the multiyear exercise plan, the JCS said.
Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) Chairman Adm. Kim Myung-soo (3rd from L) and Gen. Paul LaCamera (2nd from L), the commander of United States Forces Korea, the United Nations Command and the Combined Forces Command, visit the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier on Jan. 15, 2024, to observe a trilateral naval drill involving South Korea, the U.S. and Japan held in waters south of the Korean Peninsula, in this photo provided by the JCS. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
The latest drill came amid heightened security concerns following the North's latest test-firing of a hypersonic missile, which is considered harder to detect and shoot down.
Hypersonic missiles fly at speeds of at least Mach 5, referring to five times the speed of sound, and are highly maneuverable and able to change course during flight.
A hypersonic weapon is among the list of high-tech weapons that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un vowed to develop at a party congress in 2021. The North test-fired a liquid-fuel hypersonic missile in January 2022.
ejkim@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Eun-jung · January 17, 2024
3. Defense chief says N. Korea appears to have made 'some progress' in hypersonic missile development
From a September 2023 Defense One report:
In May, Ukrainian forces shocked the world when they used the Patriot—invented in the 1970s, upgraded many times since—to down a Russian hypersonic Kinzhal, a missile Putin had touted as “invincible”.
https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2023/09/what-ukraines-shoot-down-hypersonic-missile-patriot-says-about-future-weapons/390498/#:
Defense chief says N. Korea appears to have made 'some progress' in hypersonic missile development | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · January 16, 2024
SEOUL, Jan. 16 (Yonhap) -- North Korea appears to have made "some progress" in its pursuit to develop a hypersonic missile, Seoul's defense chief said Tuesday, after Pyongyang claimed to have successfully tested a solid-fuel one earlier this week.
Defense Minister Shin Won-sik made the remark in a radio interview with broadcaster KBS after the North launched an intermediate-range missile into the East Sea on Sunday in its first ballistic missile test this year.
Shin said the latest launch involved a conical-shaped warhead like the hypersonic missile the North tested in January 2022.
"The difference with the 2022 (one) is that was a liquid-propellant missile, while this time it was a solid propellant one that they are newly developing," he said. "(We) assess that there has been some progress."
Solid-fuel missiles are known to be harder to detect ahead of launch compared with liquid-fuel ones that require more pre-launch preparations, such as the injection of fuel.
A hypersonic weapon is among the list of high-tech weapons that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un vowed to develop at a party congress in 2021.
This photo, taken Jan. 11, 2024, shows Defense Minister Shin Won-sik speaking during an interview with Yonhap News Agency at his office in central Seoul. (Yonhap)
Meanwhile, Shin renewed the South's warning that the North Korean leadership will face its end if it makes a "wrong decision" amid North Korea's recently hardening rhetoric against the South.
The North's leader called for revising the country's constitution to define South Korea as its "invariable principal enemy" and to codify the commitment to "completely occupying" South Korean territory in the event of war at a parliamentary meeting Monday.
Shin assessed the North's harsh rhetoric as being intended to bolster internal unity in the face of economic difficulties.
He pointed to the North's recent arms exports to Russia as a sign that it would not actually risk war with the South.
"Among the missiles being developed by North Korea, the new ones are the so-called Iskander-type one and the 600 millimeter large-caliber multiple launch rocket system," he said. "Tens of these -- almost all of them that were produced were sold immediately to Russia."
"A barking dog does not bite," he said. "If North Korea really intended to go to war, would it be able to export millions of artillery shells to Russia, and also export its best-performing missiles as soon as they were made?"
The minister has said the North has sent around 5,000 containers to Russia as of end-December, which can accommodate some 2.3 million rounds of 152 mm shells.
Shin also touched on recent reports of the South not conducting proper inspections of North Korea's demolition of guard posts inside the Demilitarized Zone separating the Koreas under a 2018 inter-Korean military agreement.
The minister said there is a high possibility that the underground facilities of the North's destroyed guard posts were untouched as the North has recently been seen quickly restoring them, noting that documents on the inspections remain.
In late 2018, the two Koreas destroyed 10 guard posts each and withdrew from another one each to follow through on the military accord signed under the previous liberal President Moon Jae-in to reduce tensions along the border.
yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · January 16, 2024
4. Unification minister visits front-line Army unit amid heightened tensions
And of course the military will have to provide support to the political process of unification.
The military must consider the "after effect" and the future "markets" while understanding the "guerrilla mindset" that exists in the north, as it conducts military operations to defeat the nKPA or to stabilize the north after regime collapse.
If you concentrate exclusively on victory, while no thought for the after effect, you may be too exhausted to profit by peace, while it is almost certain that the peace will be a bad one, containing the germs of another war.
--B.H. Liddel-Hart
If in taking a native den one thinks chiefly of the market that he will establish there on the morrow, one does not take it in the ordinary way.
--Lyautey: The Colonial Role of the Army,
Revue Des Deux Mondes, 15 February 1900
War embraces much more than politics: it is always an expression of culture, often a determinant of cultural forms, in some societies the culture itself.
--John Keegan in A History of Warfare
“In the course of this struggle against factional opponents, for the first time Kim began to emphasize nationalism as a means of rallying the population to the enormous sacrifices needed for post-war recovery. This was a nationalism that first took shape in the environment of the anti-Japanese guerrilla movement and developed into a creed through the destruction of both the non-Communist nationalist forces and much of the leftist intellectual tradition of the domestic Communists. Kim’s nationalism did not draw inspiration from Korean history, nor did it dwell on past cultural achievements, for the serious study of history and traditional culture soon effectively ceased in the DPRK. Rather, DPRK nationalism drew inspiration from the Spartan outlook of the former Manchurian guerrillas. It was a harsh nationalism that dwelt on past wrongs and promises of retribution for “national traitors” and their foreign backers. DPRK nationalism stressed the “purity” of all things Korean against the “contamination” of foreign ideas, and inculcated in the population a sense of fear and animosity toward the outside world. Above all, DPRK nationalism stressed that the guerrilla ethos was not only the supreme, but also the only legitimate basis on which to reconstitute a reunified Korea.” (p. 27) (Guerrilla Dynasty, by Adrian Buzo)
Unification minister visits front-line Army unit amid heightened tensions | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · January 17, 2024
SEOUL, Jan. 17 (Yonhap) -- Unification Minister Kim Yung-ho visited a military base near the border with North Korea on Wednesday, the latest in a series of inspection tours by top South Korean officials amid heightened tensions.
Kim underscored the role of the unit in bolstering deterrence against North Korea during his visit to the Army unit in the western border city of Paju, according to the ministry, which handles inter-Korean affairs.
The rare visit came as North Korea has ratcheted up tensions on the peninsula with weapons tests, including the launch of a hypersonic missile this week, and its leader Kim Jong-un's hostile rhetoric against the South.
At a key parliamentary meeting on Monday, the North's leader called for revising the country's constitution to define South Korea as its "primary foe" and codify the commitment to "completely occupying" the South Korean territory in the event of war.
This photo, provided by South Korea's unification ministry on Jan. 17, 2024, shows Unification Minister Kim Yung-ho (C) visiting a front-line Army unit in Paju, a city near the inter-Korean border. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
sooyeon@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · January 17, 2024
5. Arsenal of Autocracy: North Korea and Iran are arming Russia in Ukraine
Excerpts:
It is now clear that Russia has succeeded in establishing an Arsenal of Autocracy together with Iran and North Korea. Moscow, Tehran, and Pyongyang are leveraging their military potential and producing the quantities of weapons necessary to overwhelm Western resistance and achieve Russian victory in Ukraine.
This authoritarian alliance poses grave threats to the future of global security. If Russia prevails in Ukraine thanks to military support from Iran and North Korea, Ukrainians will not be the last victims. On the contrary, Putin’s triumph would set a disastrous precedent. The international community would soon be faced with further wars of aggression as the world plunged into a dangerous new era where today’s rules regarding national sovereignty and territorial integrity no longer applied.
None of this is inevitable, but the clock is already ticking. If Western leaders wish to avoid decades of international insecurity and instability, they must send a clear message to all autocratic rulers and Putin wannabes by making sure the Russian invasion of Ukraine ends in decisive defeat.
Arsenal of Autocracy: North Korea and Iran are arming Russia in Ukraine
By Olivia Yanchik
atlanticcouncil.org · · January 11, 2024
Over the New Year holiday period, Russia launched some of the biggest bombardments of Ukrainian cities since the start of the full-scale invasion almost two years ago. These attacks had been widely expected, with Russia believed to have been actively stockpiling missiles and drones during the final few months of 2023. Nevertheless, the origin of some of the missiles used in Russia’s latest air attacks has sparked considerable disquiet in Ukraine and throughout Western capitals.
In the days following these latest bombardments, the White House announced that Russia had used North Korean ballistic missiles to strike Ukraine. These claims were subsequently corroborated by senior Ukrainian officials. In a joint statement issued on January 9, the US, UK, EU, Australia, Germany, Canada and nearly 40 other partner nations condemned North Korea’s export of ballistic missiles to Russia.
The delivery of North Korean ballistic missiles marks the latest escalation in the country’s support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Reports of North Korean arms shipments to Russia first emerged in late 2022. In October 2023, US National Security Council Spokesperson John Kirby announced that Pyongyang had delivered more than 1,000 containers of equipment and munitions to Russia. Speaking in late 2023, South Korean officials claimed North Korean military production facilities were operating “at maximum capacity” in order to meet Russian demand for armaments.
It is not clear what Russia is offering in exchange for the weapons it is receiving from North Korea, but there are fears that Moscow is providing the heavily sanctioned nation with access to new military technologies. During a September 2023 visit to Russia, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un visited a number of military sites showcasing advanced weapons systems.
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North Korea is not the only authoritarian regime currently providing Putin with weapons for the invasion of Ukraine. Iran has supplied Russia with large quantities of attack drones as well as artillery shells, while Russia is using Iranian drone technologies to establish large-scale domestic production of attack drones for use in Ukraine. Recent reports indicate this cooperation is now intensifying. Russia is poised to receive Iranian ballistic missiles, with Iran also delivering upgraded drones.
The military support currently being provided by North Korea and Iran is believed to be critical for the Russian war effort. While Vladimir Putin has succeeded in moving much of the Russian economy onto a war footing, the intensity of the fighting in Ukraine means Russia is currently unable to meet high demand for key munitions categories including drones, missiles, and artillery shells.
With the invasion of Ukraine about to enter a third year, deliveries of Iranian and North Korean ammunition are enabling Russia to maintain a significant artillery advantage in what is now widely regarded as a war of attrition. Likewise, the steady supply of Iranian drones makes it possible for Russia to continue its intensive bombing campaign against Ukrainian cities and the country’s civilian infrastructure. Deliveries of North Korean and Iranian ballistic missiles will allow Russia to further expand the air war against Ukraine.
While Putin’s fellow autocrats in Tehran and Pyongyang grow bolder in their readiness to back the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the West’s collective commitment to the Ukrainian war effort is now increasingly in question. In recent months, a major new US aid package for Ukraine has become hostage to domestic American politics, while the passage of long-term EU aid has been blocked in Brussels thanks to opposition from Hungary. This is fueling speculation over the future of Western support for Ukraine in a long war with Russia.
Vladimir Putin has clearly been encouraged by mounting recent indications of Western weakness, and believes he can ultimately outlast the West in a test of political wills. The Russian dictator has long framed the invasion of Ukraine in historic terms as an attempt to end the era of Western dominance. He aims to usher in a new multipolar world order and is building alliances with like-minded authoritarian regimes.
It is now clear that Russia has succeeded in establishing an Arsenal of Autocracy together with Iran and North Korea. Moscow, Tehran, and Pyongyang are leveraging their military potential and producing the quantities of weapons necessary to overwhelm Western resistance and achieve Russian victory in Ukraine.
This authoritarian alliance poses grave threats to the future of global security. If Russia prevails in Ukraine thanks to military support from Iran and North Korea, Ukrainians will not be the last victims. On the contrary, Putin’s triumph would set a disastrous precedent. The international community would soon be faced with further wars of aggression as the world plunged into a dangerous new era where today’s rules regarding national sovereignty and territorial integrity no longer applied.
None of this is inevitable, but the clock is already ticking. If Western leaders wish to avoid decades of international insecurity and instability, they must send a clear message to all autocratic rulers and Putin wannabes by making sure the Russian invasion of Ukraine ends in decisive defeat.
Olivia Yanchik is a program assistant at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.
atlanticcouncil.org · by Peter Dickinson · January 11, 2024
6. North Korea's Most Advanced Drones Reemerge, Solid Fuel IRBM Tested
North Korea's Most Advanced Drones Reemerge, Solid Fuel IRBM Tested
Kim Jong Un is seen inspecting his knockoffs of America’s Global Hawk and Reaper and North Korea has now tested a solid fuel IRBM.
BY
HOWARD ALTMAN, TYLER ROGOWAY
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PUBLISHED JAN 15, 2024 9:09 PM EST
THE WAR ZONE
thedrive.com · by Howard Altman, Tyler Rogoway · January 15, 2024
Images posted to the Chinese social media platform Weibo appear to be stills from a previously undisclosed inspection by North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un of the country's most advanced drones. These are almost exact visual copies of the well-known U.S.-made RQ-4 Global Hawk and MQ-9 Reaper unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Sunday, North Korea carried out its long-anticipated test of a solid fuel intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM), and it had an intriguing payload on top.
According to @RupprechtDeino, who researches China’s military, the drones are the Saetbyol-4, which closely resembles the jet-powered U.S. RQ-4 and the Saetbyol-9, which appears to be very similar to the prop-driven U.S. MQ-9.
The North Korean jet-powered Saetbyol-4 drone is very similar to the U.S. RQ-4 Global Hawk. (Via Weibo)
The North Korean Saetbyol-9 looks very much like the U.S. made MQ-9 Reaper. (Via Weibo)
North Korean state media has described the Saetbyol-4 (Morning Star-4) as “a strategic reconnaissance drone,” according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). The Saetbyol-9 (Morning Star-9) has been labeled a “multi-purpose attack drone.”
As we initially reported at the time, North Korean state media first unveiled the two drones in July 2023 and provided brief videos showing both of them in flight.
Both were formally revealed during the Weapons and Equipment Exhibition 2023 July 26, 2023, attended by Kim and Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu. Shoigu was visiting Pyongyang to further military cooperation between the two countries and to secure more North Korean-made armaments for use in Moscow’s war in Ukraine.
As we noted in our original report, the precise capabilities of these North Korean drones was very much unclear and few details have emerged since.
From that report:
“Next to no details are available of the specifications of the Global Hawk-type drone or even the mission that it’s intended to perform. However, its close resemblance to the RQ-4 series clearly suggests a high-altitude flight profile. Depending on engine performance and other factors, it’s likely expected to fly over longer distances. The RQ-4A has an endurance of more than 30 hours and has an intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) mission, carrying a variety of sensors including imagery intelligence (IMINT), signals intelligence (SIGINT), and moving target indicator (MTI) sensors.”
The North Korean Saetbyol-4 jet-powered surveillance drone. (Via Weibo)
An RQ-4 Global Hawk unmanned aircraft like the one shown is currently flying non-military mapping missions over South, Central America and the Caribbean at the request of partner nations in the region. (U.S. Air Force photo/Bobbi Zapka)
As for the Saetbyol-9, satellite imagery of it besides the Saetbyol-4 “indicated a wingspan of around 65 feet. The MQ-9 has a wingspan of 66 feet. While the turboprop-powered MQ-9 is used for both ISR and attack missions, it’s notable that the North Korean Reaper-type drone was displayed with two different types of missiles carried on six pylons below its wings, including one weapon that looks very similar to the U.S.-made AGM-114 Hellfire. This popular air-to-ground missile is used by the MQ-9, among many others.”
The brief video clip below also shows the drone launching a pair of Hellfire-lookalike missiles, although the authenticity of that clip is unclear.
Another issue we raised in our earlier report concerned the impossibility that North Korean industry can “actually replicate some of the more complex components and subsystems that lie at the heart of these UAVs’ capabilities. The high-technology sensors that the RQ-4 and MQ-9 series rely on are beyond North Korea’s reach, even with the benefit of espionage. That is not to say that sensors with significantly lower performance aren’t possible. The complex composite structures that make up these aircraft are another issue as is the engine technology. Simpler means of production and engines with less performance could result in significantly lower ceilings and ranges.”
Kim Jong Un stands near the front of the Saetbyol-9 drone and its gimbled sensor pod. (Via Weibo)
Still, even with these negative aspects factored in, these aircraft look remarkably impressive for North Korea to duplicate in flying form. It isn't clear who helped them achieve such a feat, if anyone at all, but Iran did capture large parts of a U.S. Global Hawk derivative it shot down near the Strait of Hormuz. We also saw a Global Hawk-like tail structure being transported in Iran. You can read about what Iran recovered from the shoot down and the appearance of the tail section in this past article. But overall the airframes themselves are impressive in terms of what North Korean aerospace industry was able to accomplish and these are a massive leap forward for the country's fledgling roster of unmanned capabilities.
Even with severely less capability, both in terms of performance and onboard sensors and control architecture, these drones could be useful in peacetime, although they would be first to be shot down during an actual conflict. The Reaper 'clone' could patrol South Korea's borders, including the DMZ, while the Global Hawk-like jet could use its higher ceiling and longer endurance to look and listen deeper into South Korean territory for extended periods of time. Both could also be used in a naval patrol context as well, although they would likely be limited to line-of-sight connectivity for high-fidelity, real-time control and exploitation of gathered intelligence. This is a huge difference compared to the U.S., with both the RQ-4 and MQ-9 being highly enabled by high bandwidth satellite datalink capability.
An MQ-9 Reaper drone at Creech Air Force Base in Nevada. (Photo by Isaac Brekken/Getty Images)
Aside from showcasing the new drones, North Korea also claimed it test-fired “an intermediate-range solid-fuel ballistic missile [IRBM] loaded with a hypersonic maneuverable controlled warhead” on Jan. 14, according to state media outlet KCNA.
“The test-fire was aimed at verifying the gliding and maneuvering characteristics of intermediate-range hypersonic maneuverable controlled warhead and the reliability of newly developed multi-stage high-thrust solid-fuel engines,” KCNA reported, adding that the test was successful.
Image from the test of the solid fuel IRBM and hypersonic vehicle. KCNA
“The test-fire never affected the security of any neighboring country and had nothing to do with the regional situation,” according to KCNA. However, an IRBM, which has a range of between 3,000 and 5,500 kilometers [1,864 to 3,418 miles], would place the U.S. territory of Guam within range if fired from Pyongyang, the South Korean Yonhap news agency noted in its story about the test. Kim has threatened to fire an IRBM near Guam in the past and North Korean IRBMs have been a top reason why a THAAD anti-ballistic missile battery has been deployed to Guam for years.
Sunday’s test comes after KCNA reported on engine trials for a new solid-fuel intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) conducted at separate facilities on both coasts last November, according to NKNews.org.
South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) detected the latest launch at around 2:55 p.m. KST on Sunday, “saying it appeared to be an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) that flew around 621 miles (1,000 km) into the Sea of Japan (East Sea),” according to NKNews.org. North Korea tests missiles at extreme altitudes in order to stay closer to the peninsula. The performance during these tests can be extrapolated into a shallower, down-range optimized, operational trajectory.
While North Korea has recently developed other solid fuel missile designs, including recently demonstrating a solid-fuel ICBM for the first time, having an IRBM with this capability is especially noteworthy. They would be among the most threatening missiles to U.S. interests during a conflict. Solid fuel capability means they can be erected and launched far quicker than their liquid-fuel progenitors. This makes them much harder to strike preemptively and gives less time for realizing a an attack may be imminent. As such, solid fuel ballistic missiles increase the North Korean ballistic missile arsenal's survivability, effectiveness and flexibility, among other advantages. North Korea has been on a quest to develop solid fuel designs for years and has made remarkable progress in this area of rocketry since it began a campaign of rapid iterative missile testing in 2016.
The hypersonic boost glide vehicle (BGV) supposedly mounted atop the missile is a whole other issue. North Korea claimed it tested a BGV in 2021. It has since claimed to have tested similar vehicles multiple times atop various missiles, but putting one on a solid-fuel IRBM would drastically increase the value of such a weapon.
Yet much is still unknown about the viability of North Korea's BGV designs and if they would even withstand the voyage to their target area. The technologies behind hypersonic flight, and especially those needed for dynamically maneuvering at velocities in excess of Mach 5, are very hard to master. If North Korea can make it work, especially aboard a solid fuel IRBM, that would be a major development that would significantly complicate defending against incoming North Korean attacks.
A graphic showing, in a very rudimentary way, the difference in trajectories between a traditional ballistic missile and a hypersonic boost-glide vehicle., GAO
There is also some debate over if at least some of these conical, finned, hypersonic vehicles are really just maneuvering reentry vehicles that are less capable of higher degrees of maneuverability. Hypersonic terminal velocities are not abnormal for ballistic missiles, especially IRBMs, so the vehicle would be hypersonic, regardless, but not having the same capabilities of a HBGV. Still, this would be a troubling development, but nothing as big of accomplishment as making an operationally relevant hypersonic BGV.
Regardless, Kim's inspection of the advamced drones and the solid fuel missile test come at a perilous time on the Korean Peninsula. On Monday, he called for a constitutional amendment to change the status of South Korea as a separate state and warned that while his country doesn't seek war, it didn't intend to avoid it, KCNA reported, according to Reuters.
We will continue to monitor North Korean's weapons programs and provide updates when warranted.
Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com
thedrive.com · by Howard Altman, Tyler Rogoway · January 15, 2024
7. Train accident in North Korea kills more than 400 people
I recall participating in a Track II event some years ago with participants from Northeast Asian countries and one of the scenarios discussed was a major train accident resulting in the death of a high level official from the Korean peninsula.
Train accident in North Korea kills more than 400 people
https://www.chosun.com/english/north-korea-en/2024/01/17/ADBJKR5AD5EYRBR2FRNWSJNZNI/
High-ranking officials in first two carriages survive the incident
By Choi Hye-seung,
Lee Jae-eun
Pubilshed 2024.01.17. 15:26
A North Korean passenger train / News1
More than 400 North Korean passengers were killed in a train accident last month, according to Radio Free Asia (RFA) on Jan. 16.
A passenger train traveling from Pyongyang to Komdok on Dec. 26, 2023, was overturned due to a power shortage while traveling up a steep slope, according to a source with knowledge of the matter, reported RFA.
The train, which was heading towards Lipa Station from Dongam Station, was navigating a steep slope 700 meters above sea level after passing Dancheon Station in South Hamgyong Province. A sudden power shortage pushed the train backward, causing seven carriages to derail and roll down the mountain. The heavy snowfall in the area at the time added to the severity of the accident.
The source explained that the train’s traction voltage weakened as it was ascending towards Lipa Station, causing it to lose momentum and begin rolling backward. The driver attempted to brake, but the train accelerated downhill, and seven rear derailed near Sinpyeong Station.
The locomotive and the first two carriages immediately behind it remained on the tracks and made it safely to Dancheon Station. The passengers in the front carriages, mostly high-ranking officials, survived the incident. But the majority of passengers in the seven carriages that rolled down the mountain did not survive.
North Korean passenger trains typically consist of 9 to 11 carriages, each with 60 seats, with the first two or three carriages reserved for high-ranking officials. This is followed by one luggage carriage and seven carriages for general passengers. The source estimates that over 400 passengers were in the seven carriages that were overturned.
The seven carriages were reportedly filled with young men in their 20s headed for the Komdok mines and housewives who were out on business to make ends meet.
North Korean authorities set up a task force to investigate the accident and dispose of the bodies. “Those who were severely injured were rescued from the site and taken to a hospital in Dancheon, but most of them died in the hospital,” the source said.
The accident mirrors a similar tragedy that occurred in November 1998 on the same steep railway near Dancheon.
8. N Korea's Kim abandons unification goal with South
I think it is a better characterization to say that the regime has admitted that it has never had a real policy of co-existence and unification through reconciliation and is now admitting what its policy has always been, to dominate the peninsula by force to ensure its rule under the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State. But I do think they will restate the peaceful unification policy some time in the future when the regime believes it will be advantageous to its political warfare strategy to subvert South korea.
N Korea's Kim abandons unification goal with South - BBC News
BBC · by Heightened tensions
North Korea's Kim Jong Un abandons unification goal with South
16 January 2024
Image source, Reuters
Image caption,
Kim Jong Un met Russian leader Vladimir Putin in September
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has said unification with the South is no longer possible, and that the constitution should be changed to designate it the "principal enemy".
Mr Kim also said three organisations dealing with reunification would shut down, state media KCNA reported.
South Korea's president said it would respond "multiple times stronger" to any provocation from the North.
The two Koreas have been divided since the Korean War ended in 1953.
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They did not sign a peace treaty and therefore have remained technically still at war ever since.
In a speech delivered at the Supreme People's Assembly - North Korea's rubber-stamp parliament - Mr Kim said that the constitution should be amended to educate North Koreans that South Korea is a "primary foe and invariable principal enemy".
He also said that if a war breaks out on the Korean peninsula, the country's constitution should reflect the issue of "occupying", "recapturing" and "incorporating" the South into its territory.
Mr Kim - who replaced his father, Kim Jong-il, as North Korean leader in 2011 - said the North "did not want war, but we also have no intention of avoiding it", according to KCNA.
He said he was taking a "new stand" on north-south relations, which included dismantling all organisations tasked with reunification.
Speaking to his cabinet on Tuesday, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said that if the North carried out a provocation, the South "will retaliate multiple times stronger", pointing to the South Korean military's "overwhelming response capabilities".
Dr John Nilsson-Wright, who heads the Japan and Koreas Programme at Cambridge University's Centre for Geopolitics, described Mr Kim's remarks as "unprecedented", and said it was "highly unusual" for a North Korean leader to depart from the policy of unification.
"It's not unusual for relations between the North and South to cool, but this has taken the relationship in a different direction," he told the BBC.
He added that Mr Kim's anti-Western stance can be traced back to the 2019 summit with then-US President Donald Trump in Vietnam, which ended without an agreement.
"This has been an acute disappointment and loss of face for Kim," Dr Nilsson-Wright said.
Mr Kim's comments came as relations significantly weakened on the Korean Peninsula in recent months.
In November, North Korea fully suspended a five-year military deal with the South aimed at lowering military tensions. It promised to withdraw all measures "taken to prevent military conflict in all spheres including ground, sea and air", and said it would deploy more forces to the border region.
The South had partly suspended the agreement days earlier after Mr Kim claimed to have successfully launched a spy satellite into space.
The rhetoric - and provocative actions - from the North have only escalated since then.
At year-end policy meetings, Mr Kim said he needed to "newly formulate" the North's stance towards inter-Korean relations and reunification policy, adding that the stated goal was to "make a decisive policy change" related to "the enemy".
He also threatened a nuclear attack on the South, and called for a build-up of his country's military arsenal.
The North has also launched missiles in recent weeks, as well as live-fire exercises close to South Korean territory.
In a report published last week for 38 North, a US-based organisation with a focus on North Korea, former State Department official Robert Carlin and nuclear scientist Siegfried S Hecker said they saw the situation on the Korean Peninsula as "more dangerous than it has ever been" since the start of the Korean War in 1950.
"That may sound overly dramatic, but we believe that, like his grandfather in 1950, Kim Jong Un has made a strategic decision to go to war," it said.
"We do not know when or how Kim plans to pull the trigger, but the danger is already far beyond the routine warnings in Washington, Seoul and Tokyo about Pyongyang's 'provocations'."
It added that it did not see the "war preparation themes" in North Korean media as "typical bluster".
Dr Nilsson-Wright agreed and said the "risk of escalation should be taken seriously".
Meanwhile North Korea's Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui is in Russia where she is expected to meet President Vladimir Putin.
The two countries have boosted ties recently, with both isolated by Western powers, and last September Mr Kim visited Russia where he met Mr Putin.
BBC · by Heightened tensions
9. Kim Jong Un urges defining S. Korea as primary foe in its constitution
But its constitution has always called for completion of the "revolution" over the entire peninsula which can only be interrupted as domination by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.
Kim Jong Un urges defining S. Korea as primary foe in its constitution
donga.com
Posted January. 17, 2024 07:37,
Updated January. 17, 2024 07:37
Kim Jong Un urges defining S. Korea as primary foe in its constitution. January. 17, 2024 07:37. by Wan-Jun Yun zeitung@donga.com.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has embarked on a risky gamble of attempting direct negotiations for the recognition of a nuclear state with the next U.S. administration and initiating a complete rupture of dialogue with South Korea, considering the potential return of former U.S. President Donald Trump to power.
According to North Korean media on Tuesday, Kim instructed to fundamentally change inter-Korean relations by labeling the South as an "immutable primary enemy" in the North Korean constitution and abolishing organizations for inter-Korean relations such as the National Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland (CPRF). On the same day, Trump gained momentum by winning the first caucus in Iowa, a key event for selecting the Republican presidential candidate.
The South Korean government views Kim as proclaiming a new strategy based on close ties with Russia and China. "Kim Jong Un seems to assess that there is a high possibility of Donald Trump coming to power in the U.S. presidential election in November,” a South Korean government said. "In this case, Kim aims to try a U.S.-North Korea deal where a freeze on North Korean nuclear activities and lifting of sanctions negotiations could be possible, explicitly excluding the Yoon Suk Yeol administration from this deal."
"As there is a high likelihood of a congruent relationship between Trump and Kim, if Trump is elected, it will pose the biggest challenge to the Yoon administration's North Korea and foreign policies," another official said. The South Korean government interprets Kim, who defines South Korea as the main enemy and even hints at the possibility of war, as attempting to shift responsibility for the military tension on the Korean Peninsula to the current administration as the April general elections approach to trigger internal discords within the South.
"The North Korean regime has effectively acknowledged being an anti-national and anti-historical group,” said President Yoon Suk Yeol during a national security meeting on the same day. “The threat of 'war or peace' coercion does not work anymore." A presidential official explained that this was a message that Kim Jong Un's psychological warfare would not sway the South.
한국어
donga.com
10. Kim Jong Un calls for removal of unification concept
I really do think the Yoon administration's unification policy is interpreted as a threat by Kim. and combined with the internal stresses that the regime is experiencing, it seems to make sense to eliminate its public unification policies while keeping in place its long-standing domination policy and strategy.
Kim Jong Un calls for removal of unification concept
donga.com
Posted January. 17, 2024 07:36,
Updated January. 17, 2024 07:36
Kim Jong Un calls for removal of unification concept. January. 17, 2024 07:36. .
In a speech to the Supreme People’s Assembly, North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un called for a change of its constitution, ordering to delete phrases like “independence, peaceful unification, and national solidarity, and defining South Korea as the “number one hostile state” and “invariable principal enemy.” He ordered that in the event of war, North Korea could fully occupy, suppress, and reclaim the Republic of Korea and incorporate it into the North. Kim also urged to destroy a symbolic structure constructed by his father and grandfather in an apparent move to denounce and upend decades of North Korean policy towards the South. “We should completely eliminate such concepts as ‘reunification,’ ‘reconciliation,’ and ‘fellow countrymen’ from the national history of our Republic,” Kim said.
Since Kim defined inter-Korean relations as “hostile two countries” at the end of last year, he appears to be resolute in his determination to firmly sever its ties with the South by amending the constitution. Pyongyang launched a series of provocations from the outset of the new year, including the firing of artillery and ICBM, and has set in motion a shift in policies, ideologies, and history toward South Korea. After severing channels of dialogue with the South, Kim is breaking the legacy set by his predecessors, ordering the removal of the “Monument to the Three Charters for National Reunification,” which was established by his grandfather Kim Il Sung, and the “Arch of Reunification” by his father, Kim Jong Il.
Kim Jong Un’s apparent shift in South Korea policy seems to stem from the confidence gained through nuclear armament, posing potential threats to both South Korea and the United States. Additionally, North Korea’s strategic engagement in weapons trade with Russia during the New Cold War has likely fueled Kim’s determination. The timing of this transition appears calculated, coinciding with South Korea’s upcoming general elections in April and the U.S. presidential election in November. However, beneath this geopolitical maneuvering lies a palpable sense of regime insecurity. Redirecting internal attention outward serves as an effective strategy for the authoritarian regime to quell the dissatisfaction among its populace.
The North Korean leader’s endeavor to eliminate concepts such as “reunification” and “same national background” draws parallels to East Germany’s ill-fated attempt to solidify its separation from West Germany by rejecting the notion of a unified nation. In the 1970s, East Germany amended its constitution, defining itself as an “independent socialist nation” while treating West Germany as a “foreign state.” This included refraining from using the term “Deutschland” and omitting lyrics aspiring the reunification from its national anthem. In contrast, West Germany steadfastly adhered to the “One Germany” principle and actively pursued reunification. The eventual outcome of this ideological competition is a lesson learned by the entire world.
한국어
donga.com
11. North Korea continues its provocations
Elimination of the public peaceful unification policy is a part of the regime's political warfare strategy to subvert South Korea and drive a wedge in the ROK/US alliance.
Provocations are a part of the regime's blackmail diplomacy strategy to use increased tensions, threats, and provocations to gain political and economic concessions.
North Korea continues its provocations
donga.com
Posted January. 17, 2024 07:37,
Updated January. 17, 2024 07:37
North Korea continues its provocations. January. 17, 2024 07:37. by Jin-Woo Shin niceshin@donga.com.
In the aftermath of the North Korea-Russia summit in September 2023, my earlier column delved into the realm of bilateral military cooperation. While it seemed that North Korea had supplied weapons to Russia, no clear evidence indicated that Russia reciprocated with the transfer of sensitive military technology to North Korea. The mere act of inviting Kim Jung Un might have been deemed sufficient by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who likely believed that he had rightly reciprocated Kim’s favor.
Following the summit, North Korea has engaged in a series of provocations. In November 2023, it launched a military reconnaissance satellite named “Manrigyong-1,” achieving orbit after two previous failures. December witnessed the firing of the solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) named “Hwasong-18,” which was lofted at an angle with a peak altitude exceeding 6,000 kilometers. More recently, North Korea tested a solid-fuel, hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), demonstrating its capability for sudden strikes.
Speculation among experts suggests that Russia’s support underlies Pyongyang’s confident provocations. An intelligence officer noted that, apart from North Korea, no other nation could offer unconditional support to Russia without concerns about neighboring nations. The urgency for weaponry has led Putin to consider North Korea’s requests for military technology seriously. The Ukrainian president disclosed that Russia had received over a million rounds of ammunition from North Korea. The White House also highlighted instances in which North Korea supplied ballistic missiles to Russia. The South Korean government anticipates that North Korea’s consistent provision of various weapons will no longer remain unreciprocated by Russia.
In my earlier column, I emphasized that allowing Putin unchecked freedom of action could give Kim Jong Un a significant advantage. The deepening, almost honeymoon-like, relationship between North Korea and Russia, primarily built around North Korea’s provision of weapons, necessitates a strategic approach. If separating Kim Jong Un from Putin proves unviable, a tailored strategy to curb Russia’s aggression must be devised. The last thing we want to encounter is a scenario where Kim gains access to the manual for a nuclear submarine.
한국어
donga.com
12. After a rough run, North Korea could at last find itself 'sitting pretty' in the new year with both Russia and China courting it, Korea watcher says
In some ways, Kim is experiencing his best foreign affairs situation in a long while even as he is likely facing tremendous internal stresses.
After a rough run, North Korea could at last find itself 'sitting pretty' in the new year with both Russia and China courting it, Korea watcher says
Business Insider · by Chris Panella
Military & Defense
Chris Panella
2024-01-16T21:27:03Z
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In a photo taken on September 6, 2017, Korean People's Army (KPA) soldiers attend a mass celebration in Pyongyang for scientists involved in carrying out a large nuclear missile test.
KIM WON-JIN/AFP via Getty Images
- Russia reliance on North Korea for ammo, and Putin and Kim's closer ties could be concerning for China.
- 2024 may see China and Russia each trying to court North Korea's affection.
- That would at last leave North Korea "sitting pretty," an expert said, after years of disastrous politics and complications on the global stage.
As it supplies Russia with the ammunition it needs to keep up its war effort in Ukraine, North Korea could find itself in a rather favorable position this year after a difficult time, an expert on the peninsula said recently.
Closer ties with Russia could be a potential concern for China, which guards its influence over the pariah state. The result could be a very fortunate 2024 for North Korea, one in which Russia and China are both chasing after its attention.
In that case, North Korea could be "sitting pretty," a top Korea watcher said last week. It's a situation which could see it leverage its position to gain more of the influence and support it has sought.
That development would be a stark difference from where the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK)'s last few years have taken it, from a disastrous summit with former President Donald Trump to years of strict, isolating COVID-19 lockdowns.
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Coming out of that, "North Korea is sitting pretty right now," Victor Cha, the senior vice president for Asia and the Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said, on CSIS' The Capital Cable episode on what the world can expect for North Korea in 2024.
North Korea has had a rather rough run. "They started out with a spectacular failure in Hanoi with the Trump summits, then they went into COVID lockdown for three years," Cha, the former director for Asian Affairs on the White House's National Security Council, said, explaining that "now they've come out and they're in a fantastic position with the Russians courting them, with the Chinese courting them, and with the US on the sidelines."
North Korea leader Kim Jong Un observes artillery fire competition in North Korea.
KCNA/REUTERS
Back in September 2023, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un met with Russian President Vladimir Putin at a summit on a potential arms deal between the two nations, one that could get Russia the ammunition it needed to replenish its dwindling stockpiles.
In return, North Korea was expected to get food and petroleum products, but experts and officials questioned what else Kim stood to gain from such a partnership — reporting at the time indicated that advanced Russian technologies, capabilities for satellites and its nuclear program, as well as educated personnel to help integrate them into North Korea's plans, were on the table.
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It was clear then that something was shifting. The meeting was the first known time Kim had left his so-called "Hermit Kingdom" in more than four years, the last also being to Russia in 2019 regarding North Korea's nuclear program.
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It raised very serious questions on what was actually possible between the two nations. Was Russia desperate enough for ammo to burn in Ukraine that it would be willing to either give Kim the capabilities and technologies he wanted, no strings attached, or help North Korea develop them?
US President Donald Trump shakes hands with North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un before a meeting at the Sofitel Legend Metropole hotel in Hanoi on February 27, 2019.
SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images
At the time of the summit, US officials expressed concern over an arms deal and what it could lead to.
Then, in October 2023, the White House tracked what it identified as more than 1,000 containers of equipment and ammo sent from North Korea and Russia. A month later, South Korean lawmakers estimated there had been 10 such arms transfers since August, resulting in a million shells sent to Russia, beating out the European Union's collective aid to Ukraine since the war began.
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Since then, anxieties have only increased.
Ukraine is seeing the consequences of a Putin-Kim alliance in real time, as Russia continues to hammer at Ukrainian defenses and burn through astonishing rates of ammo. A sustained partnership between Russia and North Korea could make that a continued battlefield reality, a troubling scenario given that Western aid is in an increasingly worrying state.
North Korea's stockpiles aren't limitless, though, and it's unclear if its production capabilities can keep up with Russia's burn rate. There are also questions about the quality of the North Korean munitions. But there are opportunities for further cooperation as the two heavily sanctioned nations find ways to fill in the gaps in what is needed to ramp up and sustain wartime production.
North Korean military cadets hold a North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il's flag during a perform of the Arirang festival which is a part of commemorations marking the 60th anniversary of the Workers' Party of North Korea on October 6, 2005, in Pyongyang, North Korea.
Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images
The US isn't the only one concerned about Kim and Putin's apparent coziness.
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China, too, has reason to keep an eye on the relationship, particularly if Russia can exercise, to some extent, the kind of influence over Kim that Beijing has long enjoyed — and kept guarded.
Cha said that in the coming year, there's an opportunity for "symmetry" between North Korea and China, potentially leading to more public diplomacy and economic assistance as the Chinese leader Xi Jinping looks to both exert control and keep North Korea in his sphere of influence.
Xi met with Kim four times from 2018 to 2019, the first just a few months before then US President Donald Trump's first summit with Xi and the last in January 2019, a month before Trump's Hanoi visit. The first summit with Xi was Kim's first known public trip.
The timing is telling. As Kim began meeting with others, like Trump and later Putin in April 2019, Xi moved to engage and keep him as close as possible. That could happen again.
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There has at times been friction between North Korea and China. Kim's missiles and nuclear weapons programs have irked China in the past, as Beijing detests instability in the region and particularly on the peninsula. North Korea, on the other hand, has criticized, sometimes openly, China's disapproval of its testing of intercontinental ballistic missiles. But the two have common interests, particularly economic, and histories that have kept them intertwined.
Russia's President Vladimir Putin (R) shakes hands with North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un (L) during their meeting at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Amur region on September 13, 2023.
MIKHAIL METZEL/POOL/AFP via Getty Images
2024 may be a perfect opportunity for North Korea if it supports Russia's war effort and receives renewed interest from China. In both cases, Kim could find himself able to play his cards as he chooses.
Business Insider · by Chris Panella
13. Pyongyang likely to be Putin's 1st destination after May inauguration: experts
To keep the ammunition and weapons flowing.
Pyongyang likely to be Putin's 1st destination after May inauguration: experts
The Korea Times · January 17, 2024
Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, shakes hands with North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui in Moscow, Tuesday (local time). Reuters-Yonhap
Dispatch of NK workers, Trump’s possible return to power expected to be on Kim-Putin summit agenda
By Jung Min-ho
As Russian President Vladimir Putin cordially greeted North Korea’s top diplomat in Moscow on Tuesday (local time), a Kremlin spokesman confirmed that the Russian leader will visit Pyongyang “at a convenient time.”
Speaking to The Korea Times on Wednesday, international relations experts said the North Korean capital will likely be the autocrat’s first overseas destination after his all-but-certain election victory and inauguration on May 7 as part of his effort to strengthen diplomatic and military ties with the North amid Russia’s war in Ukraine.
They added Putin might fly there even before the election (March 15-17) as the move would not affect his popularity at home where he enjoys stable approval ratings that surpass 80 percent.
“Most likely, Putin would be there after the inauguration as he begins his fifth term in office to highlight Russia’s ties with North Korea and to maximize its diplomatic effect,” said Hyun Seung-soo, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, a state-funded think tank. “China would be another top destination for him. My guess is that he would visit Pyongyang first and then head to Beijing where he may talk about North Korea issues with Chinese President Xi Jinping.”
That would be Putin’s first visit to Pyongyang since July 2000, when he engaged in talks with Kim Jong-il, the late father of current leader Kim Jong-un.
Evidence shows Russia’s military has been using North Korean arms including missiles in its war in Ukraine. Giving the Kremlin’s diplomatic support to Pyongyang would be one of the most symbolic and cost-effective options for repayment, Cho Han-bum, another Russia expert at the think tank, said.
"North Korean ammunition supplied to Russian troops has played a crucial role in the ongoing war. Given the Kremlin's reluctance to fulfill North Korea's requests, such as providing technology for advanced weapons, due to international sanctions and its own national interests, holding a summit in Pyongyang could serve as a reciprocal gesture to North Korea without incurring high costs," Cho said.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, right, walks with his North Korean counterpart Choe Son-hui in Moscow, Tuesday (local time). AFP-Yonhap
During her visit to Moscow, North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui hailed the progress made in implementing agreements reached last September between Kim and Putin, although she did not go into details.
When questioned about the possible agenda items in her meeting with Putin and her Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, experts suggested that key issues likely included the dispatch of North Korean workers to Russia, North Korea's potential for further arms support, and the possible return of Donald Trump to the White House.
“At that meeting, North Korea’s possible participation in rebuilding Ukraine’s eastern region under Russian control was possibly addressed as one of the main issues. Already, data suggests that a growing number of North Koreans have recently entered Russia probably on fake visas to fill Russia’s labor void amid the war,” Hyun said. “If Russia’s military manages to stabilize its control over the region, which I believe is not impossible this year, Russia will try to expand that collaboration to recruit workers it lacks.”
Another issue that unites the two countries is their shared hostility toward the current U.S.-centric world order. Experts said both North Korea and Russia clearly prefer Trump’s win in the Nov. 5 election as they are keen to change the status quo sustained under President Joe Biden. These topics may have been discussed during Choe's meetings with Putin and Lavrov, and if the expected summit in Pyongyang takes place, they are likely to be once again among the key subjects at the talks between Putin and Kim, the experts added.
On Monday, Trump secured a sweeping victory in the Iowa caucuses as surveys show he will highly likely win the Republican nomination. Meanwhile, recent polls show Biden’s approval ratings hovering at record-low levels.
The Korea Times · January 17, 2024
14. Putin meets North's top diplomat, but Kremlin light on detail
I would not expect the Kremlin to be forthcoming or transparent.
Wednesday
January 17, 2024
dictionary + A - A
Published: 17 Jan. 2024, 17:54
Putin meets North's top diplomat, but Kremlin light on detail
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2024-01-17/national/northKorea/Putin-meets-Norths-top-diplomat-but-Kremlin-light-on-detail/1960732
Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, greets North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui during their meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow on Tuesday. [AP/YONHAP]
Russian President Vladimir Putin met North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui on Tuesday amid suspected deepening military cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that Putin received Choe late Tuesday and was briefed about the agreements she reached with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov earlier in the day, but did not provide details regarding their meeting.
Earlier on Tuesday, Peskov said that Putin will visit North Korea at leader Kim Jong-un’s invitation based “on mutual agreement” at a “convenient time.”
Choe is scheduled to depart Russia on Wednesday, wrapping up a three-day trip that comes amid allegations that the North is supplying Russia with weapons to use against Ukraine in return for technological assistance with its banned weapons programs.
Earlier in the day, during their afternoon meeting, Lavrov thanked North Korea for supporting what Russia has called its “special military operation” in Ukraine and blamed the United States and its regional allies for “creating security threats” to the North, according to the news release from Moscow’s Foreign Ministry.
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Lavrov also hinted at continued Russian support for the North, as well as “close and fruitful cooperation” within the United Nations and other multilateral organizations, despite U.S. and South Korean pressure for more decisive action against the North for conducting tests of ballistic missile technology that the Security Council has banned.
In response, Choe said that Pyongyang will thoroughly fulfill agreements reached at the summit between Putin and Kim in the Russian Far East in September.
Kim has escalated his verbal offensive against South Korea as his regime has moved closer to Russia, whose government on Monday called the North its “closest neighbor” and “partner.”
Pyongyang’s state media reported Tuesday that the North Korean leader has called for constitutional amendments defining South Korea as the North's “No. 1 hostile country” and committing the regime to “completely occupying” South Korean territory should armed hostilities break out.
While Kim repeated an earlier statement that his regime would not unilaterally start a war, he also said it would not avoid one if provoked and warned that a South Korean “invasion” of North Korean territory “by even 0.001 millimeters” would be regarded as a sufficient cause for war.
The North fired hundreds of artillery rounds into the Yellow Sea near the Northern Limit Line — the de facto inter-Korean border — from Jan. 5 to 7, leading the South Korean military to respond with live-fire exercises of its own.
Pyongyang also fired what it said was a solid-fuel intermediate-range ballistic missile on Jan. 14 to test the gliding and maneuvering capabilities of its “hypersonic maneuverable controlled warhead” and the missile’s newly developed multi-stage high-thrust solid-fuel engines.
Kim has threatened that a war “will terribly annihilate” and “end” South Korea while also warning the United States “will suffer unimaginable disasters and defeats” if it becomes involved in a conflict on the Korean Peninsula.
BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]
15. S Korea implements new sanctions amid Pyongyang threats
S Korea implements new sanctions amid Pyongyang threats
They mark the Yoon Suk Yeol administration’s 15th set of unilateral sanctions against the North.
By Lee Jeong-Ho for RFA
2024.01.16
Seoul, South Korea
rfa.org
South Korea has imposed a new set of unilateral sanctions against North Korea, marking the first of such measures this year, as Pyongyang intensifies its pressure campaign against Seoul.
Seoul has identified various entities allegedly involved in aiding ship-to-ship transfers and the smuggling of oil in and out of North Korea, the South’s foreign ministry said in a statement Wednesday.
The new sanctions target 11 ships, two individuals, and three institutions for their alleged involvement in Pyongyang’s “illegal maritime activities that support North Korea’s nuclear and missile development,” according to the statement.
The ministry noted that the ships, in particular, have breached various United Nations Security Council resolutions, including the resolutions that prohibit transferring items from North Korean ships and restrictions on the supply of refined petroleum products.
Under the latest measures, the designated ships — including the Nam Dae Bong, New Konk, Unica, and Sing Ming Yang 888 — will not be permitted to dock at South Korean ports. The ships must also obtain entry permission from the managing authority before entering South Korea’s territorial waters.
In addition, South Korean nationals must seek prior approval from either the Financial Services Commission or the Governor of the Bank of Korea to conduct financial or foreign exchange transactions with individuals or institutions targeted by the independent sanctions.
The New Konk and Unica have already been sanctioned by the European Union in 2022.
The individuals sanctioned are Park Kyong Ran from Baeksul Trading, and Min Myong Hak from Ri Sang Trading, accused of involvement in importing used ships and refined oil into North Korea, as well as facilitating the dispatch of North Korean workers abroad.
The sanctioned institutions, including Mangang Trading, Ri Sang Trading, and Yu Ah Trading, were also allegedly involved in activities such as oil smuggling via ship-to-ship transfers, coal smuggling, and the importation of used ships, the ministry said.
The measures show Seoul’s “strong resolve to discourage North Korea’s illicit nuclear and missile development by cutting off its continuous illegal funding and procurement of materials through maritime activities,” the ministry said.
“We intend to continue imposing sanctions not only on ships involved in ship-to-ship transfers but also on individuals and institutions engaged in the illegal maritime transfer network.”
The sanctions measure came as North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un has pledged to amend the country’s constitution to declare South Korea as Pyongyang’s “primary and immutable enemy,” a decision that could further escalate tensions on the Korean peninsula and beyond.
During a speech at the Supreme People’s Assembly Monday, Kim articulated the need to revise the North Korean constitution, proposing the idea to include provisions for the “occupation, subjugation, and annexation” of South Korea into North Korea in the event of a conflict on the Korean peninsula.
South Korea’s new sanctions represent the Yoon Suk Yeol administration’s 15th set of unilateral sanctions against North Korea. The administration has been implementing a hardline Pyongyang policy to curb its nuclear ambition.
Edited by Taejun Kang and Mike Firn.
rfa.org
16. Lawyers accuse China of repatriating 100 more North Korean defectors
China is complicit in north Korean human rights abuses.
Wednesday
January 17, 2024
dictionary + A - A
Published: 17 Jan. 2024, 16:37
Updated: 17 Jan. 2024, 17:03
Lawyers accuse China of repatriating 100 more North Korean defectors
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2024-01-17/national/northKorea/Group-accuses-China-of-repatriating-100-more-North-Korean-defectors/1960548
Members of the lawyers' association Hanbyun hold a rally in front of the Chinese Embassy in Seoul on Tuesday. The group said nearly 100 North Korean defectors were repatriated from China between November and December last year. [HANBYUN]
Nearly 100 more North Korean defectors have been repatriated from China, according to a group of lawyers in Seoul.
In a statement Tuesday, Hanbyun — an association of lawyers that raises awareness of human rights violations in the North — said China sent back at least 95 defectors to the North over four different occasions between November and December last year.
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The total was in addition to the roughly 600 North Koreans reportedly repatriated from China following the Asian Games from September to October last year.
Repatriated North Korean defectors often face harsh punishments, including imprisonment in labor camps and even execution.
Several lawyers associated with the group hosted a rally and a press conference near the Chinese Embassy in Seoul on Tuesday to condemn Beijing for the recent repatriations.
Based on reports from several sources, the group said some 30 defectors were sent back from Dandong, China, to Sinuiju, North Korea, on Nov. 20, 2023.
Dandong and Sinuiju are border cities that face each other across the Yalu River.
Another 10 were repatriated to the North Korean border region of Yanggang Province at the end of November, said Hanbyun.
About 20 were sent back to the same region at the end of December, and around 35 were returned to Onsong County, North Hamgyong Province on Dec. 26.
The group also shared details about the repatriation, including how a group of North Korean officials received the defectors after they were sent over the border by Chinese authorities from Dandong on Nov. 20.
“It is extremely deplorable that China, which joined the 1951 Refugee Convention and the 1984 Convention against Torture and Other Cruel, Inhuman or Degrading Treatment or Punishment, and a member of the UN Human Rights Council, continues to violate the principle of non-refoulement,” Hanbyun said in its statement.
“If China does not stop the forced repatriation of defectors to North Korea, the UN should immediately begin the process of revoking China's status as a member of the UN Human Rights Council.”
The lawyers’ group said it made the same demands in a recently written letter to Elizabeth Salmon, the UN special rapporteur on the human rights situation in North Korea.
The Foreign Ministry in Seoul did not confirm Hanbyun's allegations.
Last year, it verified the repatriation of North Korean defectors following the Asian Games in China.
“We have yet to confirm details regarding the defectors' situation,” said Lim Soo-suk, spokesman of the Foreign Ministry in Seoul on Tuesday. “The South Korean government will continue to engage both bilaterally and multilaterally to prevent North Korean defectors from being forcibly repatriated to North Korea against their free will.”
In his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in October last year, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo raised the repatriation issue, sharing the South Korean government’s concerns.
Julie Turner, the U.S. special envoy on North Korean human rights, also urged Beijing to stop repatriating North Korean defectors during her visit to Seoul last October.
“We have deep concerns over these reports and very much urge the PRC [People’s Republic of China] and all governments to uphold their commitment under the relevant international treaties,” Turner told reporters in Seoul on Oct. 16 with her South Korean counterpart, Lee Shin-wha.
Seoul is expected to raise the issue in the UN Human Rights Council’s Universal Periodic Review in Geneva, Switzerland, next week.
BY ESTHER CHUNG, PARK HYUN-JU [chung.juhee@joongang.co.kr]
17. South Korea’s spy chief vows to win public trust
A good man. I wish him success.
South Korea’s spy chief vows to win public trust
koreaherald.com · by Kim Arin · January 17, 2024
By Kim Arin
Published : Jan. 17, 2024 - 16:29
Cho Tae-yong (right) stands next to President Yoon Suk Yeol on Tuesday as they pose for photograph after the National Assembly approved his appointment as the director of the South Korean spy agency. (Yonhap)
Cho Tae-yong was sworn in on Wednesday as President Yoon Suk Yeol’s second director of the National Intelligence Service, filling the vacancy since his predecessor, Kim Kyou-hyun, left the post about two months ago.
In his first address Wednesday as the NIS chief, Cho vowed to turn the NIS into an agency “worthy of the trust of the South Korean people” during his tenure -- in an apparent reference to the internal power struggle at the agency, which had spilled over into public view in recent months.
He cited “North Korea’s increasingly open ambitions to upgrade its nuclear and missile capabilities” and the “intensifying US-China rivalry” as some of the security challenges facing the country and the agency.
In response to lawmakers last week, Cho forecast heightened risks of North Korea carrying out weapons tests and other provocations this year.
North Korea is ready to conduct its next nuclear test “any time,” the timing of which would depend on North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s “political determination,” he said. After the new Hwasan-31 nuclear warhead was unveiled in March last year, the demand for another nuclear test to verify its performance has become “higher than ever.”
He said that North Korea may try to “undermine the stability of the governments of South Korea and the US” through “various types of provocations” using conventional weapons as well as nuclear and missile tests.
On the North’s Kim calling the South “a hostile country” at a year-end key party meeting, he said that such rhetoric was a continuation of the “demonstration of hostility toward South Korea” since before his rise to power in 2012.
Cho said that it was “highly regrettable” that the Kim has rejected the idea of shared statehood with South Korea, and that the North Korean leader should respond to the South’s efforts to reunite families separated during the Korean war.
He added that dialogue with North Korea should take place in a way that can “actually contribute to establishing peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula”
He said that as the NIS chief, he would do his part to support the Yoon administration’s aim of establishing “peace through force” by picking up signs of North Korean provocations early on.
His appointment was confirmed by Yoon on Tuesday afternoon, shortly following the National Assembly’s approval earlier that day -- despite a bruising confirmation hearing, in which some controversies in his personal life came to light.
At the confirmation hearing held a week ago, he faced scrutiny over his history of traffic offenses, most notably one from 1999 in which he was caught driving under the influence. He had his license suspended for 100 days and was sentenced to a fine of 700,000 won ($536).
“It is something that I should not have done, and it will not happen again,” he said on his DUI record.
Yoon tapping Cho to lead the NIS was also criticized by some opposition lawmakers as a “recycled choice.” Up until his nomination as spy chief in December, he was the president’s national security adviser and before that his top ambassador to the US.
Cho worked for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs for about 30 years before he was recruited in May 2019 by the People Power Party, which was then called the Liberty Korea Party. He entered the National Assembly as a proportional representative in 2020. He had left the ministry to join the conservative party to protest the North Korea policies of previous President Moon Jae-in, of the Democratic Party of Korea.
Over his career as a public servant, he held senior roles for the presidents of both parties and took part in key efforts to denuclearize North Korea across several administrations.
koreaherald.com · by Kim Arin · January 17, 2024
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
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