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Quotes of the Day:
"As you grow older, you will discover that you have two hands, one for helping yourself, the other for helping others."
– Audrey Hepburn
"I know in my heart that man is good. That what is right will always eventually triumph."
– Ronald Reagan
"People expect your behavior to conform to known patterns and conventions. Your task as a strategist is to upset their expectations."
– Robert Greene
1. Political Turmoil Escalating in South Korea as Impeached President Battles To Regain Power
2. Concerns grow over potential clash as investigators likely to execute warrant to detain Yoon
3. Acting defense minister meets U.S. ambassador, reaffirms alliance
4. Conservative groups mobilize amid speculation over Yoon's arrest
5. Military denies allegations it sent leaflets across border to induce N.K. provocation
6. N. Korea's Kim skips New Year's visit to former leaders' mausoleum for 2nd year in row
7. The tragedy of having arrest warrant issued for sitting president
8. [2024 in Review] Wither the Nuclear-based Alliance?
9. On N. Korea's frozen rivers, competition thaws state control
10. Rare broadcast sparks speculation over Kim Yo-jong's children
11. 2024: A jackpot year for North Korea's cyber criminals
12. Korean Peninsula in top 10 conflicts to watch in 2025: Crisis Group
13. Yoon defies detention warrant, rallies supporters
14. Lifeblood of Korean economy
15. Defense Ministry to review dismissal of military commanders involved in martial law probe
16. [New Year's Plan] Trump's 2nd term is expected to increase pressure on Korea to contain China and increase defense spending
17. “Military messages at North Korea’s plenary meeting are reduced… Evidence of poor economy”
1. Political Turmoil Escalating in South Korea as Impeached President Battles To Regain Power
Political Turmoil Escalating in South Korea as Impeached President Battles To Regain Power
Yoon Suk-yeol’s accusers, led by the opposition Minju or Democratic Party that voted down his declaration of martial law in the national assembly nearly a month ago, want to jail him for ‘insurrection.’
https://www.nysun.com/article/political-turmoil-escalating-in-south-korea-as-impeached-president-battles-to-regain-power
President Yoon speaks at Seoul, December 7, 2024. South Korean Presidential Office/Yonhap via AP
DONALD KIRK
Dec. 31, 2024 03:22 PM ET
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South Korea enters the new year amid escalating political turmoil as the impeached president, Yoon Suk-yeol, battles arrest nearly a month after he failed to shut up his foes by declaring martial law.
From within the presidential office complex, Mr. Yoon counted on his legal team, as well as security guards, to head off attempts to detain him at the behest of corruption investigators whom Mr. Yoon has refused to see.
A member of Mr. Yoon’s legal team charged that the warrant issued by a district court in Seoul was “illegal” and that the high-level Corruption Investigation Office that wants to interrogate Mr. Yoon “has no investigative rights,” as was reported by Seoul’s Yonhap News.
Mr. Yoon’s accusers, led by the opposition Minju or Democratic Party that voted down his declaration of martial law in the national assembly nearly a month ago, want to jail him for “insurrection.”
Mr. Yoon, while getting abysmal ratings in the polls, has considerable support not only from his own conservative People Power Party but from protesters who often outnumber the thousands of demonstrators calling for his arrest.
The Minju leader, Lee Jae-young, whom Mr. Yoon narrowly edged out in the 2022 presidential election, himself faces long-standing charges of corruption in real estate scandals dating from his days as mayor of a city south of Seoul and as governor of the province surrounding the capital.
Another complication is the widespread suspicion of Chinese influence among Minju members campaigning for Mr. Yoon’s ouster. Although stripped of his power as president, he retains the title until the country’s constitutional court, by at least a 6-to-3 vote, upholds the impeachment motion. If the court does not rule for impeachment, Mr. Yoon resumes full authority as president.
A long-time Rand Corporation researcher on Korean issues, Bruce Bennett, said the South Korean military, immediately after Mr. Yoon declared martial law but before he rescinded the decree six hours later, searched the offices of the country’s National Election Commission “for evidence of Chinese backing.”
Korea’s National Intelligence Service “had found considerable evidence of Chinese backing of the NEC,” Mr. Bennett told the Sun, “but the NEC did not allow outsiders to examine NEC computers directly.”
Yet if “the Chinese successfully hacked into the NEC,” Mr. Bennett said, expressing the suspicions of many Koreans, “that could cause an even greater political crisis in South Korea, raising questions about the legitimacy of the current makeup of the national assembly.”l
“Of course, as Chinese hacking happened, the Chinese may have also done their best to erase all evidence,” Mr. Bennett added. “So a lack of evidence does not prove that the Chinese are innocent.”
As the leftist-led Minju presses its campaign to drive the conservative People Power Party from power, the divide between left and right in Korea is steadily widening. “Korea remains in the grip of a partisan fever that shows no signs of breaking any time soon,” a retired senior American diplomat at Seoul, Evans Revere, told the Sun.
Mr. Revere placed his hopes, though, on the wisdom of leaders of both parties to “understand that they are damaging themselves, Korea’s democracy, and the ROK’s stature, credibility, and international reputation by continuing to pursue the nasty political confrontation that has characterized governance (or the lack thereof) in Seoul for so long.”
As evidence, Mr. Revere cited the willingness of Korea’s acting president, Choi Sang-mok, to appoint to the constitutional court two of three judges recommended by the Minju-dominated national assembly to fill out the court’s vacancies. That decision, Mr. Revere said, “demonstrated Choi’s willingness to be flexible in the face of the opposition party’s demands.”
The Minju, though, was not appeased. Its leaders demanded appointment of the third justice “immediately.” Yonhap News quoted one of them claiming Mr. Choi “does not have the authority to refuse.”
A retired American army colonel, David Maxwell, after five tours in South Korea, placed his hopes on the professionalism of the army and police.“Both parties are blowing up the democratic process and seem equally guilty of harming the republic,” he told the Sun. “But it is the professionals and the people who will likely hold it together for the good of the Republic of Korea.” But, Colonel Maxwell added, “If they cannot, then there is no telling where this will go.
2. Concerns grow over potential clash as investigators likely to execute warrant to detain Yoon
Why do they think they must detain President Yoon?
(LEAD) Concerns grow over potential clash as investigators likely to execute warrant to detain Yoon | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · January 2, 2025
(ATTN: CHANGES headline, lead para; UPDATES throughout with more details)
By Chae Yun-hwan
SEOUL, Jan. 2 (Yonhap) -- Concerns have grown over a potential clash if investigators proceed with a warrant to detain President Yoon Suk Yeol as the impeached president has vowed to "fight to the end."
The state anti-corruption agency is likely to execute the warrant to detain Yoon as early as Thursday after the Seoul Western District Court granted it Tuesday over Yoon's short-lived declaration of martial law on Dec. 3.
Yoon has become the first sitting South Korean president to face arrest.
The Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO) has since been making preparations to execute the warrant without major disruptions amid concerns the presidential security service or Yoon's supporters may prevent it from doing so.
Yoon's supporters have gathered outside his residence in central Seoul, with Yoon sending a message of solidarity to them the previous day.
"Due to internal and external forces infringing on its sovereignty and the activities by anti-state groups, South Korea is now in danger," Yoon said in the message. "With you, I will fight to the end to protect this country."
Yoon's lawyer also claimed Thursday that if police attempt to carry out the warrant on behalf of the CIO, the presidential security service would be able to arrest them on charges of abuse of power and obstruction of official duties.
Yoon's legal defense team has filed an injunction to suspend the warrant's effect, calling it "illegal."
President Yoon Suk Yeol (Yonhap)
The CIO requested the warrant after Yoon ignored all three summonses to appear for questioning as part of its joint investigation with the police and the defense ministry's investigation unit over the martial law bid.
While warrants are swiftly carried out once issued, the CIO appears to be mindful of how and when it is executed, given that it targets a sitting president.
The presidential security service has said it would take security measures in accordance with due process after the warrant was issued, leading observers to believe the security service may maintain its protection for Yoon rather than cooperate with investigators.
The CIO has vowed to execute the warrant, which will expire Monday.
Along with the detention warrant, the court also issued a warrant for investigators to search the presidential residence, outlining an exception to laws that restrict searches in locations with military secrets or seizing official secrets without consent.
The security service had previously prevented investigators from raiding the presidential office on such grounds.
An official at the security service told Yonhap News Agency that it has yet to confirm whether the exception is spelled out in the warrant.
Oh Dong-woon, the CIO chief, called on the security service Wednesday to cooperate, warning that any attempt to block the execution of the warrants could amount to dereliction of duty and obstruction of official duties.
If Yoon is arrested, investigators plan to take him to the CIO's headquarters in Gwacheon, just south of Seoul, for questioning before detaining him at the Seoul Detention Center in Uiwang near the CIO's office.
Once detained, the CIO will have 48 hours to either seek another warrant for Yoon's formal arrest for further detention or release him.
Police officials stand guard outside the presidential residence in central Seoul on Jan. 1, 2024. (Yonhap)
yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · January 2, 2025
3. Acting defense minister meets U.S. ambassador, reaffirms alliance
The ROK government will continue to function.
Acting defense minister meets U.S. ambassador, reaffirms alliance | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · January 2, 2025
SEOUL, Jan. 2 (Yonhap) -- Acting Defense Minister Kim Seon-ho held talks with U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Philip Goldberg on Thursday and reaffirmed their steadfast bilateral alliance, Seoul's defense ministry said.
In the meeting held at the defense ministry in Seoul, both sides noted how the South Korea-U.S. alliance remains strong despite changes in the security and political situation, the ministry said in a release.
Kim thanked the outgoing ambassador for his efforts to substantially advance the alliance since taking his post in July 2022 and asked for his continued support in improving the bilateral relationship.
In response, Goldberg expressed his country's unchanged support for the ironclad alliance, the ministry said.
Acting Defense Minister Kim Seon-ho (L) meets with U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Philip Goldberg at the defense ministry in Seoul on Jan. 2, 2025, in this photo provided by Kim's office. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
mlee@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · January 2, 2025
4. Conservative groups mobilize amid speculation over Yoon's arrest
Will conservative groups sufficiently mobilize and take acton to prevent Yoon's ouster and more importantly to counter Chinese and north Korean meddling in the South Korean political process. I think we fail to keep in mind is that one of the reasons President Yoon decided to take this action was due to the external threats on the ROK domestic political process. Many (particularly in the opposition) say this is just an excuse and fear mongering but there are those who cite evidence of election interference going back years. This article is from one year ago:
"PFJK Statement: China, Stop Conducting Unrestricted Warfare in the Republic of Korea" https://eastasiaresearch.org/2025/01/01/pfjk-statement-china-stop-conducting-unrestricted-warfare-in-the-republic-of-korea/
Conservative groups mobilize amid speculation over Yoon's arrest
Protests swell outside Yoon's residence, tensions mount
By Jeong Du-yong,
Shon Duk-ho,
Park Su-hyeon
Published 2025.01.02. 16:30
Members of conservative groups and supporters of South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol lie on the ground in front of the entrance to the presidential residence in Yongsan District, Seoul, on Jan. 2, 2025, in defiance of police orders to disperse./News1
Supporters of South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol blocked roads leading to the presidential residence in Hannam-dong on Jan. 2 as speculation grew over a potential arrest warrant being executed by the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO).
As of the time of the protests, the CIO had not moved to execute the warrant. However, conservative groups issued urgent calls for supporters to rally, claiming an arrest team was en route.
Around 2 p.m., approximately 60 of Yoon’s supporters occupied a 15-meter section of one lane on Hannam-daero, a road leading to the residence. The area, usually restricted by police to prevent gatherings, was breached by demonstrators who lay down in the street in defiance of dispersal orders. Police eventually allowed the protest to continue under the condition that demonstrators remain stationary.
Elsewhere, larger rallies unfolded, with supporters occupying three lanes of Hannam-daero and displaying placards bearing slogans such as “End fraudulent elections” and “Stop legislative dictatorship.” At one rally, a speaker urged demonstrators to hold their ground, declaring, “The CIO is reportedly moving with an arrest team. This is the day we fight to the end!”
The protests were amplified by the participation of Pastor Jeon Kwang-hoon of Sarang First Church and members of the Liberty Unification Party. Their organization, the National Movement to Set Korea Straight, mobilized supporters despite the CIO having not initiated any arrest action.
A view of South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol’s residence in Hannam-dong, Yongsan District, Seoul, on Jan. 2, 2025./News1
While pro-Yoon rallies dominated the streets, tensions flared as anti-Yoon activists also gathered nearby. The groups, including YouTubers with opposing views, clashed in front of the residence, exchanging shouts of “Arrest Yoon Suk-yeol” and “Jail Lee Jae-myung.” The confrontations escalated into verbal abuse and physical altercations.
President Yoon, addressing supporters outside the residence the previous day, expressed gratitude for their efforts, stating, “I’ve been watching your dedication through live-streamed broadcasts. I’m deeply moved and concerned.”
On Dec. 31 and Jan. 1, thousands of Yoon supporters rallied against his potential impeachment and arrest, in contrast to smaller anti-Yoon protests, which drew only about a dozen participants each day.
However, the dynamics are likely to shift, as a coalition of 1,500 civic groups, including the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions, Federation of Korean Trade Unions, and People’s Solidarity for Participatory Democracy, held a press conference near the residence on Jan. 2. The coalition, known as the Emergency Action for Yoon Suk-yeol’s Resignation and Social Reform, has criticized the administration, citing rising inflation and currency instability as threats to citizens’ livelihoods.
The coalition plans to stage a larger protest near the residence at 7 p.m., raising concerns about potential clashes. Among the anticipated participants are members of a youth-led group known as the “Light Stick Protesters,” who previously called for Yoon’s impeachment outside the National Assembly.
5. Military denies allegations it sent leaflets across border to induce N.K. provocation
Military denies allegations it sent leaflets across border to induce N.K. provocation | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · January 2, 2025
SEOUL, Jan. 2 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's military on Thursday rejected allegations that it sent anti-Pyongyang leaflets to North Korea to prompt military provocations when former Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun was in office.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) made the statement in response to media reports accusing the military of sending such leaflets between September and December when Kim, suspected of playing a key role in last month's botched martial law imposition, was at the helm of the defense ministry.
"It is not true that the military conducted activities to induce the enemy's provocation," JCS spokesperson Col. Lee Sung-jun said in a regular briefing, calling such an idea "improbable."
Noting that the military did not fire rounds toward the North when debris from the North's explosion of two inter-Korean roads came across the border last year, Lee stressed the military exists to protect the lives and safety of the people.
This June 10, 2024, file photo shows Col. Lee Sung-jun, spokesperson for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, speaking in a regular press briefing at the defense ministry. (Yonhap)
In October, North Korea blew up the Gyeongui and Donghae roads, once seen as symbols of inter-Korean cooperation. The South's military did not suffer any damage but responded by firing shots south of the Military Demarcation Line in a warning sign.
"Had the military carried out activities to induce provocation ... we would have fired toward the North at the time," Lee said. "Why would we leave such a good opportunity and only fire warning shots?"
In Thursday's briefing, the JCS maintained its stance of not confirming suspicions raised by the opposition bloc that former minister Kim ordered drone infiltration in the North's capital as part of preparations for the Dec. 3 martial law imposition.
Earlier this week, Rep. Boo Seung-chan of the main opposition Democratic Party said he received a tip-off that the military made and sent anti-Pyongyang leaflets in an alleged attempt to heighten inter-Korean tension.
mlee@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · January 2, 2025
6. N. Korea's Kim skips New Year's visit to former leaders' mausoleum for 2nd year in row
(LEAD) N. Korea's Kim skips New Year's visit to former leaders' mausoleum for 2nd year in row | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Park Boram · January 2, 2025
(ATTN: UPDATES with more details in last 2 paras)
SEOUL, Jan. 2 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un appears to have skipped his annual New Year's visit to the mausoleum of his late grandfather and father for the second consecutive year, according to state media on Thursday.
The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), the country's state media, reported that government and party cadres and military commanders visited the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun the previous day, but Kim was not among those listed.
The participants pledged their unwavering determination to advance the country's prosperity under the guidance of Kim Jong-un, the KCNA said.
This image, published by the Korean Central News Agency on Jan. 2, 2025, shows North Korean officials paying respects at the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun in Pyongyang, which enshrines the bodies of the state founder and his grandfather, Kim Il-sung, and his father, Kim Jong-il. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
The Kumsusan Palace of the Sun in Pyongyang enshrines the bodies of the state founder and his grandfather, Kim Il-sung, and his father, Kim Jong-il.
Since assuming power in late 2011, the incumbent leader had visited the mausoleum on the first day of every year, except in 2018 and last year.
Kim has also appeared to significantly reduce the frequency of his visits to the mausoleum in recent years, having previously visited on key anniversaries, such as those of the birthdays and deaths of his father and grandfather, as well as the anniversary of the party's establishment.
Since 2022, there have been no North Korean reports of him visiting the mausoleum for Kim Jong-il's birthday on Feb. 16 or Kim Il-sung's birthday on April 15.
An official at the unification ministry said that Kim has shown an irregular pattern of visiting or sometimes skipping visits to the mausoleum on those occasions since 2022, as he has sought to solidify his independent authority.
"In the past, (Kim) had an inevitable tendency to rely absolutely on his ancestor leaders in the early phase of his rule, but after 10 years, he has appeared to be seeking to establish his standalone status," the official said.
pbr@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Park Boram · January 2, 2025
7. The tragedy of having arrest warrant issued for sitting president
Excerpts:
On whether President Yoon’s actions during martial law constituted treason, 67.2% of respondents agreed. Only 27.8% opposed the idea. Two-thirds of the respondents considered Yoon’s deployment of armed forces to the National Assembly and the National Election Commission, along with the circulation of arrest lists, as acts of insurrection. Furthermore, as much as 72.3% disagreed with Yoon’s justification that martial law was necessary to address allegations of election fraud.
These results highlight the awareness of the people of South Korea, who have experienced mature democracies, on democratic common sense and principles. The survey reflects the prevailing public sentiment after nearly a month of unfolding events, including the impeachment motion, ongoing investigations into former Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun and others linked to martial law, and the broader implications of Yoon’s actions. It was only among the conservative respondents, who comprised 27% of the survey, whose opposition to impeachment (53.4%) outweighed supporters of the motion (41.9%). Even among centrist respondents, 77.0% supported the Constitutional Court’s approval of the impeachment motion.
The tragedy of having arrest warrant issued for sitting president
donga.com
Posted January. 01, 2025 07:57,
Updated January. 01, 2025 07:57
The tragedy of having arrest warrant issued for sitting president. January. 01, 2025 07:57. .
Seven out of 10 South Koreans believe President Yoon Suk Yeol has lost his legitimacy as president following the December 3 declaration of martial law, according to a Dong-A Ilbo New Year survey. The poll found that 70.4% of respondents believe the Constitutional Court should uphold the National Assembly’s impeachment motion against Yoon, almost three times higher than 25.4% who think it should be dismissed. Separately, 70.8% of respondents said Yoon should resign, regardless of the court’s decision.
On whether President Yoon’s actions during martial law constituted treason, 67.2% of respondents agreed. Only 27.8% opposed the idea. Two-thirds of the respondents considered Yoon’s deployment of armed forces to the National Assembly and the National Election Commission, along with the circulation of arrest lists, as acts of insurrection. Furthermore, as much as 72.3% disagreed with Yoon’s justification that martial law was necessary to address allegations of election fraud.
These results highlight the awareness of the people of South Korea, who have experienced mature democracies, on democratic common sense and principles. The survey reflects the prevailing public sentiment after nearly a month of unfolding events, including the impeachment motion, ongoing investigations into former Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun and others linked to martial law, and the broader implications of Yoon’s actions. It was only among the conservative respondents, who comprised 27% of the survey, whose opposition to impeachment (53.4%) outweighed supporters of the motion (41.9%). Even among centrist respondents, 77.0% supported the Constitutional Court’s approval of the impeachment motion.
Acting President Choi Sang-mok has managed to avoid repeating the missteps of his predecessor, Han Duck-soo, by ensuring the Constitutional Court’s impeachment process proceeds smoothly, by appointing necessary justices. Choi’s leadership underscores the crucial sense of nonpartisan stewardship in this critical period.
Impeaching a democratically elected president—just eight years after the impeachment of former President Park Geun-hye—is a tragic event, to say the least. Yet South Korea’s democratic system exists to hold leaders accountable and sound alarm when they fail to respect its principles. Both ruling and opposition parties must navigate this process, focusing on historical responsibility rather than political and partisan interests. The public will closely watch how they handle the pending appointment of one remaining Constitutional Court justice.
Looking back, South Korea’s history is marked by both progress and setbacks. From the impeachment in 2016 to the current governance vacuum under Yoon, the nation has faced its share of missteps. Yet time has consistently revealed the country’s ability to move forward.
The martial law crisis of December 2024 and the impeachment proceedings against President Yoon have exposed flaws in governance and judgment, including a lack of boundaries between public and private affairs within the presidential office and the misjudgment on the part of the president and the first lady. Nevertheless, how South Korea addresses these challenges in 2025 will determine its ability to return to stability. While 2025 is about to begin with uncertainty and discontent, there is hope that the nation can end the rest of the year with a renewed sense of purpose and resolve.
한국어
donga.com
8. [2024 in Review] Wither the Nuclear-based Alliance?
I hope the Trump administration will sustain the NCG because it is in America First's interests.
Excerpt:
What matters now is how the NCG will be handled by the incoming Trump administration and, for at least several months, an interim leadership in Seoul. Assuming Yoon is eventually removed from office, a South Korean presidential election is held, and a progressive ROK administration returns to office—with markedly different national security and foreign policy priorities—it is unlikely the NCG’s expedited progress reviewed above will continue apace. Yet only time will tell exactly how it will evolve in the future.
[2024 in Review] Wither the Nuclear-based Alliance? - Korea Economic Institute of America
keia.org · by Sang Kim · December 31, 2024
The Peninsula
[2024 in Review] Wither the Nuclear-based Alliance?
Published December 31, 2024
Author: Clint Work
Category: US-Korea alliance
Entering 2024, US and ROK defense officials wasted little time building upon the previous year’s effort to institutionalize the US-ROK Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG). Yet, by year’s end, in the wake of Donald Trump’s election victory and President Yoon Suk Yeol’s abortive martial law declaration and impeachment, the NCG faced an uncertain future.
Following the April 2023 Washington Declaration establishing the NCG, the allies held the inaugural NCG meeting in July 2023 in Seoul and the second meeting in December in Washington. During the latter, both sides acknowledged the enhanced visibility of strategic asset deployments throughout 2023 and progress in the NCG working group (WG) on NCG workstreams, highlighted the first Extended Nuclear Deterrence Immersion Course involving ROK officials, and approved the work plan and key events for the first half of 2024 to secure “substantive progress in an expedited manner.”
Soon thereafter, in February 2024, NCG co-chairs Dr. Vipin Narang, US Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy, and Dr. Cho Chang Lae, ROK Deputy Minister of Defense for Policy, signed the NCG Framework document, which described the objectives of the NCG and shifted its guidance from the allies’ respective National Security Councils to the US Department of Defense and ROK Ministry of National Defense. The shift was meant to further institutionalize the NCG by embedding it with working-level defense officials and moving it away from the top political leadership. Whereas NCG meetings had been convened by NSC officials in 2023—with defense officials leading the discussions—US and ROK defense officials would convene and co-chair the effort moving forward.
At the NCG’s third meeting in June, officials announced the complete review of the NCG Guidelines, which provide “principles and procedures for the Alliance to maintain and strengthen the credible and effective nuclear deterrence policy and posture.” Additionally, they discussed “joint and combined planning and execution of US-ROK CNI options on the Korean Peninsula” and reaffirmed future cooperation through interagency simulations—an NCG-led TTX and a military-to-military TTX—focused on North Korean nuclear-use scenarios. On July 11, the NCG co-chairs signed the “United States and Republic of Korea Guidelines for Nuclear Deterrence and Nuclear Operations on the Korean Peninsula,” which Presidents Biden and Yoon commended and endorsed in a joint statement the following day.
Subsequently, ROK Principal Deputy National Security Advisor Kim Tae-hyo spoke of the establishment of “an integrated extended deterrence system jointly operated by South Korea and the U.S.,” elevating the relationship to a “fully-fledged nuclear based alliance,” with Yoon reinforcing the message. According to Kim, whereas Washington had historically solely planned and provided extended deterrence, the allies would jointly declare, plan, and integrate ROK conventional with US conventional and nuclear capabilities and operations moving forward. Furthermore, Kim said, the United States had committed to assign specific missions for its nuclear assets to deter and respond to North Korean nuclear threats both in peacetime and wartime.
Although further details were not made public and Yoon and Kim’s remarks were likely a high-level public relations effort to enhance positive perceptions of the NCG among the ROK public, President Biden’s earlier approval of a revised “Nuclear Employment Guidance”—the highly classified nuclear strategic plan for the United States—indicates there may be some truth behind their statements. Among other important changes, the employment guidance increasingly stresses conventional and nuclear integration both within the US joint force and with US allies.
Efforts continued in the fall with the October 1 launch of South Korea’s Strategic Command (ROK STRATCOM) and plans for an inaugural NCG-led TTX. However, Yoon’s abortive martial law declaration disrupted the NCG’s progress. Despite ROK officials having already arrived in Washington to hold the fourth and final NCG meeting under the Biden administration, the meeting and TTX were postponed due to the short-lived martial law decree. Although US and ROK officials have stated they will get their diplomatic and security agendas back on track—including the NCG—there is less than a month left in Biden’s term and the ROK faces a void at the highest levels of its political, military and defense leadership. Under such conditions and time constraints, working-level officials can only do so much.
What matters now is how the NCG will be handled by the incoming Trump administration and, for at least several months, an interim leadership in Seoul. Assuming Yoon is eventually removed from office, a South Korean presidential election is held, and a progressive ROK administration returns to office—with markedly different national security and foreign policy priorities—it is unlikely the NCG’s expedited progress reviewed above will continue apace. Yet only time will tell exactly how it will evolve in the future.
Clint Work is Fellow and Director of Academic Affairs at the Korea Economic Institute of America. The views expressed here are the author’s alone.
Photo from Shutterstock.
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keia.org · by Sang Kim · December 31, 2024
9. On N. Korea's frozen rivers, competition thaws state control
Resistance and resilience.
Excerpt:
“Even in the bitter cold, you’ll see people smiling and encouraging each other as they skate. It’s how North Koreans have learned to stay warm through winter – finding moments of joy even within the system’s constraints.”
On N. Korea's frozen rivers, competition thaws state control - Daily NK English
"Participation may be mandatory, but once on the ice, everyone gets caught up in the excitement of competition and the chance to win prizes," a source told Daily NK
By Jeong Tae Joo - January 2, 2025
dailynk.com · by Jeong Tae Joo · January 2, 2025
The Rodong Sinmun newspaper covered an outdoor ice rink in Pyongyang on Jan. 7. (Rodong Sinmun, News 1)
South Korean families and couples flock to ski resorts and ice festivals in December, seeking winter fun and recreation. Meanwhile in North Korea, winter sporting events are mandatory affairs, focused on building physical fitness and group solidarity. The contrast couldn’t be starker – individual leisure and prosperity versus regime-enforced collectivism.
Yet beneath the rigid structure, North Koreans find their own ways to enjoy these events, sources say.
In North Korea’s Jagang province, where temperatures plunge to -15°C, the frozen Changja River becomes a natural ice rink. Flowing from Ryongnim county through Kanggye city to the Yalu, this icy expanse hosts more than just casual skating.
According to a source speaking to Daily NK on Dec. 27, every government organization and school in the province participates in winter athletic events on the river. This year’s ice skating tournament, running from Dec. 14 through January, draws participants both young and old competing for their respective organizations.
While the venue lacks modern amenities – no decorations or warming stations – the determination of skaters cutting through the bitter wind and the enthusiasm of their supporters mirror scenes at any modern skating rink.
“The tournament showcases our Kanggye spirit and passes it to future generations,” remarked a man in his 60s identified as Kim. “It’s heartening to see everyone united despite the cold.”
However, younger participants seem less interested in the “Kanggye spirit” – a leadership slogan from the 1990s famine era – and more focused on winning prizes.
Though the regime views sports as a tool for promoting collectivism, ordinary North Koreans increasingly see them as opportunities for fitness, community building, and entertainment. This December, markets bustled with young people shopping for ice skates, while crowds gathered around the Changja River to cheer on competitors.
“While officially about showing provincial pride and unity, locals prioritize enjoyment over duty,” the source explained. “Participation may be mandatory, but once on the ice, everyone gets caught up in the excitement of competition and the chance to win prizes.
“Even in the bitter cold, you’ll see people smiling and encouraging each other as they skate. It’s how North Koreans have learned to stay warm through winter – finding moments of joy even within the system’s constraints.”
Read in Korean
dailynk.com · by Jeong Tae Joo · January 2, 2025
10. Rare broadcast sparks speculation over Kim Yo-jong's children
Sometimes I think that Kim Jong Un and Kim Yo Jong like to discuss how they can make the South, the US and the international community react to their actions. They want to see how they will react when presented with certain actions situations. And then they laugh at how we might react or overreact or read too much intero something.
Rare broadcast sparks speculation over Kim Yo-jong's children
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2025-01-02/national/northKorea/Rare-broadcast-sparks-speculation-over-Kim-Yojongs-children/2213881
Published: 02 Jan. 2025, 16:03
Kim Yo-jong, the powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, is seen walking with children toward outdoor tables at Pyongyang's May Day Stadium during a New Year’s celebratory performance, as aired by Korean Central Television (KCTV) on Jan. 1. [YONHAP]
Kim Yo-jong, the powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, was spotted holding a young boy’s hand and walking alongside a girl during a New Year’s celebratory performance in Pyongyang on Wednesday, raising speculation that the children may be hers.
The footage, aired by the state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Wednesday, showed Kim Yo-jong walking with the children outside the event venue, which was attended by many top North Korean officials and their families.
South Korea’s Ministry of Unification on Thursday acknowledged the rarity of the scene.
A ministry official said during a closed-door briefing that while it is difficult to draw presumptions based on the video, they believe "no such extremely rare scene" has been reported in the past.
"Given that yesterday's images [were taken from] a family-inclusive event, we see [Kim's footage] particularly noteworthy," the ministry official added.
Kim’s personal life has been shrouded in secrecy, but reports from South's National Intelligence Service (NIS) suggest she may have given birth at least twice. In April 2015, the NIS informed the National Assembly’s Intelligence Committee that Kim appeared pregnant and was expected to give birth in May of that year. At the time, the NIS speculated that her husband might be a fellow graduate of Kim Il-sung University, although his identity has not been confirmed.
Further speculation arose in February 2018, when Kim visited South Korea as part of Pyongyang's high-ranking delegation for the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics. She appeared to be in the late stages of pregnancy and was reported to have given birth later that year.
North Korea has never officially confirmed her marital status, pregnancies, or childbirth.
North Korean government and party officials visit the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun in Pyongyang on Jan. 1 to pay tribute to North Korea's founder, Kim Il-sung, and his son, Kim Jong-il, to mark New Year's Day, in this photo released by the North's official Korean Central News Agency the next day. The mausoleum enshrines the mummified bodies of Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il. [YONHAP]
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un did not visit the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun on New Year’s Day for the second consecutive year, breaking with a tradition he observed for most of his rule. Analysts suggest this decision is part of his strategy to diminish the legacy of his predecessors and emphasize his own leadership.
The official Rodong Sinmun reported on Thursday that senior officials, including members of the Workers' Party's top institution along with other top military and government leaders, visited the Kumsusan Palace in Pyongyang. The site, which houses the embalmed bodies of Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il, has long been visited on New Year's Day and other major political anniversaries.
While the report highlighted the attendees' pledges of loyalty to Kim's revolutionary ideology and leadership, it made no mention of Kim’s presence at the event.
Since taking power, the North Korean leader made annual visits to the Kumsusan Palace on New Year’s Day, except in 2018 and the past two years. In 2023, he also skipped appearances on other significant dates, such as Kim Jong-il’s birthday on Feb. 16 and Kim Il-sung’s birthday on April 15. Instead, he limited his visits to the anniversaries of their deaths — July 8 for Kim Il-sung and Dec. 17 for Kim Jong-il.
“In the early years of his rule, ... Kim Jong-un had to rely heavily on the legacy of his father and grandfather [to consolidate power,]" the South Korean Unification Ministry official explained. "Now, after a decade, there is a move toward creating his own independent identity evident not only in his absence from Kumsusan ceremonies but in his overall governance."
BY SEO JI-EUN [seo.jieun1@joongang.co.kr]
11. 2024: A jackpot year for North Korea's cyber criminals
The all purpose sword is a valuable weapon and tool for the regime.
2024: A jackpot year for North Korea's cyber criminals - Daily NK English
With North Korean workers, particularly IT professionals, increasingly relocating to Russia, cyber operations are expected to escalate
By Abhishek Sharma -January 2, 202
dailynk.com · by Abhishek Sharma · January 2, 2025
The dawn of 2025 offers a crucial moment to reflect on how 2024 proved remarkably advantageous for North Korea. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has emerged as an unexpected economic lifeline for Pyongyang, while simultaneously drawing the regime out of its diplomatic isolation. North Korea’s cyber operations throughout 2024 have also yielded significant gains for the regime, which continues to view its cyber capabilities as a vital strategic asset.
The Chainalysis 2025 Crypto Crime Report reveals that 2024 marked an exceptional year for North Korean cyber heists. The regime’s hackers managed to steal $1.34 billion through 47 separate incidents – a staggering 103% increase from 2023’s $660.50 million across 20 incidents. This dramatic surge has raised serious concerns among the United States, South Korea, and Japan, particularly since an estimated 40% of these illicit funds directly support North Korea’s strategic military programs.
The findings are troubling for three key reasons. First, they demonstrate that the decline following 2022 was merely temporary, not a lasting trend. As shown in Figure 1, North Korean hackers have reached the billion-dollar threshold twice – in both 2022 and 2024. Second, this increased funding could fuel North Korea’s expanding military ambitions, including its submarine development, space program, and drone initiatives. Third, and perhaps most significantly, North Korea’s share of global cyber theft has reached an unprecedented 60% of total stolen funds.
(Figure 1) North Korean Cyber Theft: A Growing Trend
Data: https://www.chainalysis.com/blog/crypto-hacking-stolen-funds-2025/
Two significant trends have emerged in North Korea’s cyber operations beyond just the total amount stolen. First, the regime increasingly targets high-value exploits in the $50-100 million and $100+ million categories, demonstrating growing sophistication in its operations. This shift towards larger heists suggests that North Korean hackers are becoming more efficient and skilled – a development that has raised alarms among cybersecurity agencies.
Second, the integration of AI into hacking operations has added a new dimension of concern. These advanced cyber operations are closely tied to North Korea’s IT workforce, whose role has become increasingly central to the regime’s broader cyber strategy.
Digital soldiers: How N. Korea’s tech warriors operate globally
North Korea’s cyber operations rely heavily on its extensive network of IT workers, who serve as crucial links between the regime and the outside world. These operatives can reportedly earn up to $300,000 annually. While many operations are conducted from relative safe havens in China and Russia, which offer geographic proximity and lenient regulations, domestic North Korean organizations continue to play a significant role.
These IT professionals operate through domestic companies and entities that facilitate malicious cyber operations to generate revenue for the regime. One notable example is the Jinyong IT Operation Company, a regime-affiliated entity that helps channel funds back to North Korea.
Operating from overseas, these IT workers employ various fraudulent schemes targeting countries like the U.S. Their tactics include creating fake job applications and infiltrating companies as IT professionals to steal money or extract sensitive data. In some documented cases, DPRK operatives have collaborated with foreign nationals to establish “laptop farms” for conducting mass targeting operations against foreign citizens.
Countering the North’s increasing cyber threat
In late 2024, South Korea and its allies intensified their response to North Korea’s cyber threats through targeted sanctions and enhanced cyber deterrence measures. The United States imposed sanctions on nine individuals and seven entities in December 2024, including Ri Chang Ho, head of the Reconnaissance General Bureau (RGB), which orchestrates cyber heists. Shortly after, on Dec. 26, South Korea issued its own sanctions targeting 15 North Korean IT professionals and an entity involved in money laundering.
These actions built upon previous sanctions from both nations. In May 2023, the U.S. Treasury Department targeted key institutions including the Pyongyang University of Automation, Technical Reconnaissance Bureau, and 110th Research Centre – all crucial to North Korea’s IT operations. South Korea and the U.S., along with Japan, have also sanctioned prominent North Korean cyber groups like Lazarus and Kimsuky, demonstrating their growing trilateral coordination.
Beyond sanctions, the U.S. and South Korea have strengthened their bilateral cooperation, while also engaging Japan in trilateral efforts to counter North Korean sanctions evasion through IT workers. These partnerships focus on enhancing public-private collaboration, law enforcement coordination, and intelligence sharing. Following Russia’s veto of the DPRK Panel of Experts in March, this cooperation has intensified, leading to the creation of the Multilateral Sanction Monitoring Team – an eleven-nation initiative to track and report sanctions violations.
With North Korean workers, particularly IT professionals, increasingly relocating to Russia, cyber operations are expected to escalate, potentially generating more revenue for the regime. This trend, combined with the growing cyber activities of Russia, China, and Iran targeting the US and its allies, suggests possible future coordination among these nations in the cyber domain. This evolving landscape requires continued vigilance from South Korea and its partners to ensure the effectiveness of both existing and new sanctions monitoring mechanisms.
dailynk.com · by Abhishek Sharma · January 2, 2025
12. Korean Peninsula in top 10 conflicts to watch in 2025: Crisis Group
Not the top ten Korea wants to be in.
Korean Peninsula in top 10 conflicts to watch in 2025: Crisis Group
koreaherald.com · by Ji Da-gyum · January 2, 2025
Participants chant slogans during a candlelight rally near Gyeongbokgung Palace in downtown Seoul on Dec. 28, calling for the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol. The rally was organized by the Emergency Action for Yoon Suk Yeol's Immediate Resignation and Social Reform. Yonhap
The entire Korean Peninsula has emerged as one of the top 10 global conflicts to watch this year, driven not only by North Korea's belligerence but also by political upheaval in South Korea, according to the International Crisis Group's annual forecast.
Crisis Group cautioned that tensions and uncertainties on the peninsula could intensify, driven by severed inter-Korean ties in the absence of communication channels, deepening military cooperation and exchanges between Russia and North Korea, and the return of President-elect Donald Trump to the White House.
“With much in flux, the Korean Peninsula is set for an edgy 2025,” the Brussels-based Crisis Group, dedicated to conflict prevention and early warning, highlighted its findings Wednesday in its forecast report with Foreign Policy.
In the 10 Conflicts to Watch forecasts spanning 2015 to 2025, the Korean Peninsula as a whole was never featured on the list. However, the deteriorating dynamics between the US and North Korea were named in the 2020 forecast, while North Korea's belligerent actions and war threats were listed in the 2018 edition.
The inclusion of the entire Korean Peninsula on the watch list was mainly driven by political turmoil following President Yoon Suk Yeol’s botched declaration of martial law on Dec. 3, which Yoon justified based on “the opposition’s obstructionism,” according to Crisis Group's forecast.
South Korea concluded the year with “a botched self-coup attempt” by Yoon, which prompted the National Assembly to vote for his impeachment on Dec. 14, the group said, adding, “military officers refused to detain legislators, who quickly vetoed the emergency provisions.”
“In Seoul, Yoon’s failed power grab likely heralds further upheaval,” the forecast warned.
Crisis Group warned that the severed ties between the Koreas, including Kim Jong-un’s 2023 declaration of South Korea as a "primary foe" and the cutoff of inter-Korean communication, have heightened the risk of conflict on the peninsula, leaving the two Koreas with "few options to manage incidents at a time of mounting friction.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un exchange documents during a signing ceremony of a new partnership in Pyongyang, North Korea, on June 19, 2024. (File Photo - Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)
Another critical risk arises from the ratified treaty on a comprehensive strategic partnership between Moscow and Pyongyang, which includes a mutual defense commitment and paves the way for North Korean troop deployments in support of Russia's war against Ukraine.
“Kim’s pact with Moscow -– and the subsequent deployment of an estimated 10,000 elite North Korean troops to Russia’s Kursk region –- links the military balance on the Korean Peninsula to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war in Europe,” the group said.
What matters more, however, is what Kim has gained -- and stands to gain -- from these troop deployments, with security implications for the peninsula and beyond.
“The question is what else Pyongyang gets in return,” Crisis Group said. “Closer ties to the Kremlin reinforce Kim’s rule, and Russia is paying for the troops, who will presumably get valuable combat experience.”
Crisis Group predicted that Russia is unlikely to share its nuclear knowhow but finds it plausible that Putin could assist North Korea with ballistic missile technology, potentially enabling it to field missiles with multiple warheads capable of penetrating US and Asian missile defenses.
The group also noted that “Trump’s return adds another layer of uncertainty” to the Korean Peninsula, impacting it on multiple levels.
While Trump is unlikely to withdraw US forces from South Korea or abandon the defense cost-sharing agreement, he may pressure Seoul to increase its financial contributions for hosting US troops.
“That will boost calls, especially among ordinary South Koreans, for Seoul to acquire its own nuclear arsenal. Any ambiguity about Washington’s commitments to Seoul also risks emboldening Kim,” the group said.
The potential for Trump’s return to nuclear diplomacy with Pyongyang, which “if Trump’s team has the bandwidth, would be difficult but worth a shot,” according to the report, introduces an additional factor of uncertainty.
"This time around, negotiations would be tougher. North Korea’s program is more advanced, and Kim’s pact with Russia gives him less incentive to compromise," the group said.
Crisis Group assessed that "Kim seems unlikely to launch a full-blown war" despite warning from Korea watchers.
“Rather, the main danger lies in miscalculation. Perhaps evidence surfaces of, say, Russian missile technology transfers. Or Kim, animated by his Russia ties, upheaval in Seoul and mixed signals from Trump, pushes the envelope with some form of provocation," it said. "In both cases, the United States and its allies would face pressure to respond."
koreaherald.com · by Ji Da-gyum · January 2, 2025
13. Yoon defies detention warrant, rallies supporters
President Yoon should not be doing this. You either support the political and legal processes or you support tyranny. Do not become what you are trying to prevent. Do not play into the hands of those who really want to take power an implement a non-democratic system
Yoon encourages protesters to block investigators
Yoon defies detention warrant, rallies supporters
The Korea Times · January 2, 2025
Police officers forcibly remove President Yoon Suk Yeol's supporters lying on a road in front of the presidential residence in Seoul during a rally in support of Yoon, Thursday. Yonhap
Yoon encourages protesters to block investigators
By Kwak Yeon-soo
President Yoon Suk Yeol is urging his supporters to "fight together to protect this country against anti-state forces," sparking protests in response to an ongoing investigation into his botched martial law order and subsequent impeachment proceedings.
He is also raising questions about the legitimacy of a detention warrant issued against him, while law enforcement authorities are moving to execute it — a move believed to be a tactic to delay the investigation.
On Thursday, hundreds of Yoon's supporters staged a rally in front of the presidential residence in central Seoul, in an apparent attempt to physically prevent investigators from the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO) from executing the warrant to detain the president. Later in the day, the police forcibly dispersed dozens of supporters who stepped out onto the road, blocking traffic.
Their protest, which had been taking place for weeks, intensified and swelled in size on Wednesday night after Yoon delivered a rallying message to his supporters.
He thanked the protesters who "are making efforts to protect free democracy and the constitutional order of this country" in the cold weather, in a message that was delivered to the supporters in front of the residence on a sheet of A4 paper and also made public by Yoon's legal adviser, Seok Dong-hyeon.
“Korea is currently in danger due to activities of anti-state forces as well as internal and external forces threatening national sovereignty. I will fight until the end to protect this country," he said in the message.
Yoon declared, “I’m watching you on YouTube livestream,” prompting conservative YouTubers among the protesters to increase their broadcasts, amplifying coverage of the event.
Amid the intensifying protest, concerns are growing over the possibility of physical clashes between the protesters and CIO investigators who plan to detain Yoon.
On Tuesday, the Seoul Western District Court issued a warrant to detain Yoon on charges of leading an insurrection and abuse of power regarding his martial law decree on Dec. 3, 2024, which was later lifted by the National Assembly. The warrant is valid until next Monday.
This is the first warrant ever issued to detain a sitting president in the nation's history. With the warrant, investigators can detain Yoon for questioning for up to 48 hours. If they want to arrest him, they have to ask the court to issue a separate arrest warrant.
The CIO requested the warrant because Yoon ignored all three summons to appear for questioning. It is coordinating with the police over the timing and method to execute the warrant. It also requested the Presidential Security Service (PSS) to cooperate, warning that any attempt to block the proceeding to detain Yoon could amount to abuse of power and obstruction of public duty.
The staff from the Presidential Security Service and police officers stand guard in front of the presidential residence in Seoul, Thursday. Newsis
However, Yoon’s attorney Yoon Gap-geun said the CIO has no right to mobilize the police to detain the embattled president.
“The attempt by the CIO to detain Yoon and search the presidential residence through the support of police is illegal. Arrest and search warrants must be directly executed by prosecutors and investigators of the CIO,” the attorney said.
He even suggested that police officers attempting to execute the warrant on behalf of the CIO could be detained by the PSS or "any citizen" for abuse of power or obstruction of public duty — a statement critics say could incite Yoon's supporters outside the residence to physically block investigators.
In previous search attempts, the PSS blocked investigators from entering Yoon's office and residence, citing national security concerns.
The president's message angered the opposition, who accused him of inciting his supporters to clash with the authorities.
“Instead of reflecting on himself, the president is inciting civil war. The joint investigation team of the CIO, the police and the defense ministry's investigation unit should no longer delay executing the warrant and arrest Yoon, the insurrection ringleader, immediately today," said Rep. Park Chan-dae, floor leader of the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea.
Rep. Lee Jun-seok of the minor conservative Reform Party, who previously led the ruling People Power Party (PPP) as chairman, said it is unbelievable that Yoon continues to view the world from the perspective of far-right YouTube channels.
“The last thing Yoon can do for Korea is to immediately resign. I don’t care if I’m not able to run for the next presidential election. I just hope Korea goes back to its normal state as soon as possible,” Lee wrote on his Facebook page. Lee will be eligible to run in a presidential election after March 31 when he turns 40.
President Yoon Suk Yeol’s supporters lie on the road in front of police officers during a rally at the entrance of the presidential residence in Hannam-dong, Seoul, Thursday, to block the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials from executing a warrant to detain Yoon in its investigation into his botched martial law. Later in the day, the police forcibly removed them from the road. Yonhap
Yoon’s message also irked several lawmakers from the ruling PPP.
“Yoon needs to stop making nonsensical excuses and playing with words,” Rep. Kim Sang-wook said in a radio interview.
In addition to the ongoing criminal investigation, the embattled president is also undergoing an impeachment trial at the Constitutional Court, accused of abuse of power and insurrection.
The Korea Times · January 2, 2025
14. Lifeblood of Korean economy
Excerpt:
The government, political parties, and the private sector must collaborate to create a more conducive environment for innovation and growth. The semiconductor special bill must be passed without delay, providing essential support for research and development. Regulatory barriers must be dismantled, and strategic investments should be made to foster innovation. Furthermore, the government must take immediate steps to prevent the outflow of talent, ensuring that Korea remains an attractive destination for the world’s best engineers and scientists.
Lifeblood of Korean economy
The Korea Times · January 2, 2025
Strategic support needed to boost chipmakers, prevent brain drain
Despite looming political and economic uncertainties that continue to plague Korea, the nation's exports surged to a record-breaking $683.8 billion in 2024, up 8.2 percent from the previous year. This stellar performance, spearheaded by a boom in semiconductor exports, has been a rare beacon of hope amid a turbulent economic climate. Semiconductors, accounting for 20.8 percent of Korea's total exports worth a staggering $141.9 billion, continue to serve as the backbone of Korea’s economy. However, this triumph should not mask the underlying challenges threatening the long-term sustainability of the semiconductor sector.
While Korea's export numbers are undeniably impressive, they stand in stark contrast to many other signs of economic distress.
Political instability, highlighted by President Yoon Suk Yeol's controversial martial law declaration and the subsequent impeachment proceedings, has led to rising uncertainty. The Korean won has depreciated to levels not seen since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, while the domestic stock market has remained sluggish despite positive global trends. Given these challenges, the resilience of the nation's exports is even more remarkable. However, this should serve as a wake-up call, underscoring the urgent need for long-term strategies to protect the country’s competitive edge in the global semiconductor industry.
Semiconductors, particularly memory chips, have been a critical driver of Korea's trade surplus, which reached a six-year high of $51.8 billion in 2024. The sharp rise in sales of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips has been a key factor in this growth. However, this booming sector is now faced with looming threats, both external and internal, that could undermine its future prospects. On the global stage, Korea’s semiconductor industry is vulnerable to the imposition of protectionist trade policies, particularly by the United States, with the advent of a new administration. As countries around the world double down on supporting their local chip industries — Japan, for instance, has allocated $6.8 billion to its foundry chipmaker, Lapidu, while Taiwan’s TSMC is expanding rapidly in Japan and China is ramping up efforts to bolster its own chipmakers — Korea risks falling behind.
Korean semiconductor companies are grappling with an environment marked by regulatory hurdles and insufficient government support. The delayed opening of SK hynix’s semiconductor cluster in Yongin, which has been under construction since 2019, highlights the critical need for more effective and timely government action. The project has faced significant delays, not because of technological constraints, but due to a lack of coordination between local and central governments, coupled with burdensome regulations that have hampered progress.
Moreover, the National Assembly's failure to pass a crucial semiconductor special bill in 2024 is a glaring example of political dysfunction. The bill, which would have allowed research and development employees in the semiconductor sector to work more than 52 hours a week, was blocked primarily by the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK). This political deadlock undermines efforts to foster a more competitive and agile semiconductor industry, at a time when rivals are ramping up support for their own sectors. If the Korean government and political parties cannot overcome these divisions and recognize the strategic importance of the semiconductor industry, the nation’s economic backbone will be left exposed to the shifting sands of global trade.
Another worrying trend is the outflow of talent from Korea’s semiconductor giants. A notable number of engineers from leading firms like Samsung Electronics and SK hynix have been recruited by Chinese companies, such as CXMT, which now employs up to 35 percent of its engineers from Korea. This "brain drain" poses a significant threat to the long-term viability of Korea’s semiconductor industry. While countries like the United States have actively extended visas to attract skilled workers in cutting-edge industries, Korea risks losing its competitive edge in the global talent race if it fails to retain its brightest minds.
The time for complacency has passed.
Korea’s semiconductor industry, long a pillar of its economic success, is facing multiple challenges. While the current record-breaking export performance highlights its growth potential and resilience, external challenges, political deadlock, and insufficient government support threaten the future of this vital sector.
The government, political parties, and the private sector must collaborate to create a more conducive environment for innovation and growth. The semiconductor special bill must be passed without delay, providing essential support for research and development. Regulatory barriers must be dismantled, and strategic investments should be made to foster innovation. Furthermore, the government must take immediate steps to prevent the outflow of talent, ensuring that Korea remains an attractive destination for the world’s best engineers and scientists.
The Korea Times · January 2, 2025
15. Defense Ministry to review dismissal of military commanders involved in martial law probe
Defense Ministry to review dismissal of military commanders involved in martial law probe
koreaherald.com · by Jung Min-kyung · January 1, 2025
Yeo In-hyung of the Defense Counterintelligence Command (left), and Lt. Gen. Lee Jin-woo of the Capital Defense Command. Yonhap
The Defense Ministry has launched a review of whether or not to dismiss the Defense Counterintelligence Command and Capital Defense Command chiefs over their alleged involvement in President Yoon Suk Yeol's botched martial law decree last month, an official said Wednesday.
On Tuesday, Yeo In-hyung of the Defense Counterintelligence Command and Lt. Gen. Lee Jin-woo of the Capital Defense Command were indicted with physical detention on charges of abuse of power and playing a key part in an insurrection.
A Defense Ministry official, who asked to remain anonymous, said that they are in the process of forming committees that would review the dismissal of the two military commanders. "We are getting the members of the committees ready and coming up with a plan to operate the committees," the official said.
Based on their units, the committee reviewing Yeo's case would be operated by the Defense Ministry, while the one handling Lee's case would be under the Republic of Korea Army.
The two military commanders have been suspended from their duties since last month.
According to prosecutors, Yeo allegedly deployed troops to the National Assembly and the National Election Commission, on the orders of then-Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun, following Yoon's martial law decree on Dec. 3. Yeo ordered the arrest of 14 people, including former People Power Power leader Han Dong-hoon and main opposition Democratic Party of Korea leader Rep. Lee Jae-myung.
Lt. Gen. Lee faces similar accusations of deploying troops to the Assembly on the same night as well as planning to seal off the National Assembly under the command of the former defense minister.
koreaherald.com · by Jung Min-kyung · January 1, 2025
16. [New Year's Plan] Trump's 2nd term is expected to increase pressure on Korea to contain China and increase defense spending
This is a Google translation of a VOA report.
[New Year's Plan] Trump's 2nd term is expected to increase pressure on Korea to contain China and increase defense spending
2025.1.2
https://www.voakorea.com/a/7921398.html
The United States, which is fiercely competing with China around the world, is expected to ask Korea to play a greater role in containing China when the second term of Donald Trump, who advocates 'America First', begins. There are observations that not only will the pressure for increased defense cost sharing, increased tariffs, and restrictions on exports to China intensify, but the demand for strategic flexibility for the USFK to contain China will also increase. Reporter Ahn Jun-ho reports.
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[New Year's Plan] Trump's 2nd term is expected to increase pressure on Korea to contain China and increase defense spending
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Daniel Snyder, Professor of East Asian Studies, Stanford University
Daniel Snyder, a professor of East Asian studies at Stanford University, said on the 1st, “It is clear that President Trump and his aides have a strong anti-China policy.” He added, “It is not clear exactly what policies will come out of the Trump administration, but it is likely to include pressure on allies such as South Korea, Japan, and Europe, which play a key role in high-tech sectors and have long had deep ties with China.”
[Recording: Professor Snyder] “We don't know exactly what kind of policy might emerge from the Trump administration but it certainly is likely to include pressure on countries like Korea and Japan and European allies who are important players in the high technology sector and who have long and deep ties in China.”
Professor Snyder continued, “Under the Trump administration, the United States could demand that South Korea limit its economic and technological relationship with China.”
Professor Snyder said, however, that this demand for public pressure and participation in checks and balances can be applied not only to the economy and technology, but also to broader areas such as national defense.
The explanation is that those expected to join the next Trump administration, including the Department of Defense, argue that America's military and security resources should be focused on China, and that the presence of US troops in Korea should be readjusted for the broader goal of containing and containing China.
Professor Snyder added, “The United States has no interest in stationing troops in South Korea solely for the purpose of deterring North Korea.” He added, “This is not a new idea; it is similar to the ‘flexible response capability’ policy promoted by Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld during the George W. Bush administration. However, South Korea has always resisted, arguing that USFK should exist only for the purpose of deterring North Korea.”
During his tenure, former Secretary of State Rumsfeld expressed differences of opinion with the Korean government by emphasizing the strategic flexibility of deploying US forces overseas in the event of an emergency.
[Recording: Professor Snyder] “But I think more broadly there is this belief and I've seen it expressed by some of the people who are supposedly joining the administration in the Pentagon and elsewhere that the United States should focus its resources on China, its military and security resources on China and in some sense repurpose of the presence of American forces in South Korea for this broader goal of confronting and containing China.”
“Possibility of readjusting the role of US forces in Korea”
Elbridge Colby, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy and Force Development, nominated as Under Secretary of Defense for Policy in Donald Trump's second term
In fact, Elbridge Colby, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for strategy and force development who was nominated as undersecretary of defense for policy in the second Trump administration, has argued that the U.S. military capabilities are limited and that it should focus on containing China and that its allies should take more responsibility.
He has repeatedly told VOA that South Korea must defend itself as much as possible against threats from North Korea, and that U.S. forces in Korea should be reorganized to respond to China.
He also said in a December 2023 appearance on VOA's "Washington Talk," "USFK should be designed in a way that is better suited to responding to China," and "USFK should focus on the ability to respond to the Chinese military."
[Recording: Designated Colby] “They should be designed more for dealing with the Chinese. And in the future, the forces that the Chinese are clearly developing, that they have not stopped developing since the meeting with President Biden in the slightest. (omitted) So US forces on the peninsula will need to be focused on being able to deal with PLA.”
“Possibility of pressure to increase defense cost sharing”
There is also a high possibility that the second Trump administration will pressure South Korea to increase its defense cost sharing.
Former President Trump raised the issue of withdrawal of US troops and increased defense cost sharing several times during his first term in office and during his election campaign.
In an interview with the American weekly magazine Time last April, he stated his position that Korea is a “very wealthy country” and therefore needs to have US troops defend it.
Also, in a conversation with John Micklethwaite, editor-in-chief of Bloomberg News, at the Chicago Economic Club on October 15th last year, he said, “They (South Korea) have a ‘money machine,’” and “We are protecting them from North Korea and other people.”
[Recording: Former President Trump] “They have a money machine. We protect them from North Korea and other people. North Korea is very nuclear. I got along with them very well, Kim Jong-un. But they don’t pay us anything.”
He also claimed that if he remained in office, South Korea would pay $10 billion a year in defense cost sharing.
“The observation of requirements is like that, there will be pressure and demands”
Evans Revere, former Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs
In a written response to VOA’s inquiries that day, Evans Revere, former Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, said, “It is still too early to talk about the specific policies or demands of the Trump administration, as the new administration has not yet been launched and neither the president-elect nor his key nominees have mentioned specific policies regarding Korea.”
However, he said, “During Trump’s first term and in recent years, and during his presidential campaign, it became clear that President-elect Trump harbored deep skepticism about the U.S.-South Korea alliance, general antipathy toward South Korea, widespread dissatisfaction with key U.S. allies, and a belief that allies must be ‘paid a price’ by the United States for defending them.”
He continued, “Therefore, until the new administration announces specific policies, it is safe to expect that there will be pressure and demands on South Korea on various aspects of the US-ROK alliance and partnership,” he said. “These include defense cost-sharing, the size of the US military presence, the roles and missions of the US and South Korean militaries, and tariff issues.”
[Former Deputy Assistant Secretary Revere] “So until we hear specific policy pronouncements from the new administration, it's probably best to anticipate that there will probably be pressures and demands of the ROK across many aspects of the alliance-partnership, including in the areas of burdensharing , the size of the US military presence, the roles and missions that US and ROK forces will carry out, and, of course, tariffs.”
“Tariffs and export restrictions on China will intensify”
U.S. economic experts predict that the Trump administration's second term will impose high tariffs on Korea to resolve the massive trade deficit and protect domestic industries such as semiconductors.
President-elect Trump had threatened to impose a 25% tariff on allies Canada and Mexico, citing drug trafficking and illegal immigration into the United States.
William Reinsch, Chair of International Economics, Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
William Reinsch, a professor of international economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and former undersecretary of commerce under Bill Clinton, told VOA last month that “during his first term, former President Trump targeted countries with which the U.S. had large bilateral trade deficits,” and that “South Korea still falls into that category, so it seems likely that it will continue to be a target.”
[Reinsch Chair] “In his first term Trump targeted countries with which the US has large bilateral trade deficits. ROK remains in that category, so I imagine the country will continue to be a target, although the significant Korean investment in manufacturing in the US may reduce Trump's concern.”
Troy Stangeron, Director of the Wilson Center Korea
“Former President Trump is very concerned about the way America’s foreign partners treat us and the trade deficit,” Troy Stangeron, director of the Wilson Center’s Korea Center, told VOA in a phone call last month. “There will be tensions in the economic relationship between the two countries as they work together to address these issues.”
[Recording: Center Director Stangeron] “I would think we would have to expect that there will be tensions between the United States and South Korea on economic relations as the two countries try to work through these issues.”
However, Center Director Stangeron predicted that South Korea is more likely to face a “universal tariff” of 10-20% across all imports than the 25% tariff that the second-term Trump administration has said it would apply to Canada and Mexico.
Temi Overby, former president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Korea. Photo = KEI.
Tammy Overby, former president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Korea, also previously told VOA that “former President Trump has been very clear that he believes that countries that benefit from trade with the United States treat the United States unfairly,” and predicted that former President Trump will find some kind of measure to reduce the trade deficit with South Korea.
Robert Rapson, Former Acting U.S. Ambassador to Korea
Robert Rapson, a former US ambassador to South Korea, predicted that the second Trump administration would demand that South Korea comply with stronger US regulations on exports of advanced technologies to China.
The United States is strengthening export controls to block China's rise in cutting-edge industries such as artificial intelligence (AI), and there are indications that such export controls could be further strengthened under the second Trump administration.
“America, I hope Korea does more... Everything is up for negotiation”
Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific Security Fellow at the Hudson Institute, spoke via video conference with VOA reporter Eun-Jeong Cho on the 8th.
Patrick Cronin, chair of Asia-Pacific Security Studies at the Hudson Institute, appeared on VOA’s “Washington Talk” on the 27th of last month and said, “The United States wants South Korea to do more,” adding, “That’s the key.”
The explanation is that everything is up for negotiation, and the US wants Korea to help the US more in high-tech policy, reduce the trade imbalance, and provide more support on the China issue.
[Recording: Cronin Chair] “But it's rather everything is on the table. We need you to help more on high technology policy. We need you to reduce the trade imbalance that's actually gone more in South Korea's favor. We need you to do more not just on North Korea, but we need you to do more in helping us on China.”
“Trump may act impulsively”
However, many point out that President-elect Trump's policies are difficult to observe.
Michael O'Hanlon, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution
Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, predicted in a written response to VOA's inquiry that day that President-elect Trump is likely to act impulsively.
However, he said, “From experience, we know that the issue of support for countries hosting U.S. troops is very important to Trump, and he feels that South Korea is somewhat exploiting the United States in its trade and investment policies.”
[Senior Researcher O’Hanlon] “I doubt that Trump thinks that way. More likely, he will be impulsive. But we know from experience that the host-nation support issue matters to him a lot, as does his sense that somehow South Korea takes advantage of the United States in trade and investment policy.”
It is difficult to predict what President-elect Trump will demand of South Korea in the future, as he is more likely to make impulsive and intuitive decisions rather than act in a specific plan or set way, but it is interpreted to mean that he is likely to put pressure on South Korea because he believes that South Korea is using the United States.
This is Ahn Jun-ho from VOA News.
17. “Military messages at North Korea’s plenary meeting are reduced… Evidence of poor economy”
This is a Google translation of an RFA report.
This aligns with my assessment that the regime is facing internal stress and that is the regime priority.
“Military messages at North Korea’s plenary meeting are reduced… Evidence of poor economy”
https://www.rfa.org/korean/in_focus/nk_nuclear_talks/north-korea-plenary-meeting-economy-deterioration-kim-jong-un-intention-01022025085054.html
Seoul-Hando hando@rfa.org
2025.01.02
Park Won-gon, director of the Institute for Unification Studies at Ewha Womans University, speaks at a discussion on “Analysis of North Korea’s New Year’s Message and Outlook for the Situation in 2025” on the 2nd.
/ RFA PHOTO
00:00 /03:28
Anchor : Experts are analyzing that the recent reports on the results of North Korea's year-end plenary session have shown a significant decrease in military-related messages and a large proportion of economic-related messages, indicating that North Korea's worsening economic situation is to blame. Reporter Han Do-hyung reports from Seoul .
A discussion on ' Analysis of North Korea's New Year's Message in 2025 and Outlook for the Situation ' jointly hosted by the Institute for Unification Studies at Ewha Womans University and the Our Nation's Mutual Aid Movement in Seoul on the 2nd .
Park Won-gon, director of the Institute for Unification Studies at Ewha Womans University, analyzed at the event that the amount of information North Korea disclosed about the results of its year-end party plenary session last month was quite short, and that the economic sector accounted for a large portion of the disclosed content, saying , “ This is evidence that North Korea’s economic situation is very bad . ”
In particular, since this year is the final year of the Five -Year Plan for National Defense Development and the Five- Year Plan for Economic Development presented by General Secretary Kim Jong-un at the 2021 Party Congress , it is highly likely that they were all discussed at this plenary session , and there is an explanation that there must be an intention behind minimizing the message in the defense sector . These are the words of Director Park Won-gon .
[ Park Won-gon, Director of the Institute for Unification Studies at Ewha Womans University ] There are still key issues in the defense development sector . There must have been discussions about those areas, but they were not announced . I think we can find one or two meanings . First of all, I think it proves that the economic situation is very bad .
Kim Mi-yeon, a senior researcher at the KDB Future Strategy Institute, also analyzed that “ Considering that North Korea did not even mention economic growth performance at this plenary meeting , there is a possibility that it failed to continue last year’s growth and instead achieved sluggish growth . ”
Senior Researcher Kim also predicted that North Korea's expansion of the ' Local Development 20X10 Policy ' discussed at this plenary session would be difficult as it is already difficult to achieve existing goals .
There is also analysis that the absence of a military message in North Korea's year-end plenary session announcement may have been due to issues with North Korea's endurance.
Lee Ho-ryeong, another presenter that day and a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, analyzed, “The omission of the content on the advancement of nuclear missile capabilities, which has been emphasized every year, may be due to the deterioration of the North Korean regime’s endurance and the narrowing of the North Korean people’s acceptance . ”
The senior research fellow interpreted the fact that General Secretary Kim Jong-un's public political activities last year reached a record 65 times since he came to power , as a result of the regime reaching its limit in maintaining its durability through military messages alone .
[ Lee Ho-ryeong, Senior Researcher, Korea Institute for Defense Analyses ] Nuclear training exercises and such were heavily emphasized, but this time they have been completely eliminated . It is highly likely that the internal situation of the North Korean regime is not good, or that the North Korean people have become tired of such things, and their range of acceptance has become very narrow . I think we need to pay attention to the last part .
A discussion on 'Analysis of North Korea's New Year's Message and Outlook for the Situation in 2025' held in Seoul on the 2nd. / RFA PHOTO
[ Hot Topic ] North Korea in 2025 as seen through the year-end plenary session
“North Korea takes cautious stance ahead of Trump’s second term at plenary meeting ”
Meanwhile, the debate that day presented conflicting analyses regarding the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war and its conclusion on North Korea .
Lee Sang-hyun, a senior researcher at the Sejong Institute, said , “ If North Korea’s role becomes more important to Russia, there may come a time when we have to worry about the possibility of long-term consolidation of North Korea-Russia military cooperation . ”
The senior researcher also predicted that if Russia and Ukraine agree to a ceasefire under pressure from the second Trump administration , which will be launched on the 20th, it will be inevitable that North Korea-Russia relations will ease .
[ Lee Sang-hyun , Senior Researcher, Sejong Institute ] Given the current situation, there is a possibility that a confrontation between the South Korea-U.S. alliance and the North Korea-Russia alliance will emerge on the Korean Peninsula in the future . I think we need to prepare for this as well .
On the other hand, Senior Researcher Lee Ho-ryeong analyzed that the dispatch of troops to Russia is more likely to be a burden to the Kim Jong-un regime rather than a visible achievement.
The senior research fellow also said that the prolonged war between Russia and Ukraine since the inauguration of the second Trump administration is a situation in which North Korea's burden and anxiety are growing .
This is Han Do-hyung from RFA Free Asia Broadcasting in Seoul .
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