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Quotes of the Day:
"The undeserving maintain power by promoting hysteria,"
- Frank Herbert
"Only a fool fights by the ground rules that his enemy has laid down for him,"
- Malcolm X
"It is hard to free fools from the chains they revere."
- Voltaire
1. The Disastrous Downsides of South Korea Building Nuclear Weapons
2. North Korea's famine at worst in more than 30 years - report
3. North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site: No Signs of an Imminent Test
4. Otto Warmbier Traveled To North Korea For Fun — And Returned 17 Months Later With Fatal Brain Damage
5. N. Korea received US$2.3 mln in humanitarian aid last year: OCHA data
6. JSC chairman urges combat readiness over Lunar New Year holiday
7. Vice unification minister calls on N. Korea to return to dialogue
8. Xi thanks N.K. leader for condolence message after Jiang's death
9. Face masks no longer required indoors in Korea from Jan. 30
10. Rising food prices sap North Koreans’ holiday cheer ahead of Lunar New Year
11. Why are South Koreans losing faith in America's nuclear umbrella?
12. How US-led alliance aims to mend Japan-South Korea ties and rein in China
1. The Disastrous Downsides of South Korea Building Nuclear Weapons
As I have mentioned, President Yoon's recent statements may have actually been coordinated to prepare for the reintroduction of US nuclear weapons onto the peninsula. We will see,
Dr. Hecker makes a strong case why South Korean nuclear weapons would have "consequences too enormous to bear."
Excerpts:
South Korea’s decision to build the bomb will be widely condemned. It is unrealistic to think that Washington would support such a move or turn a blind eye. Moreover, China would likely level its own sanctions or support the international community to do the same. Consequently, the quest for the bomb will threaten much of South Korea’s economic success and soft power it has so painstakingly constructed over the years. Its quest for the bomb will shatter South Korea’s phenomenal success with the likes of Samsung, Hyundai, and Hallyu.
The irony is that an indigenous nuclear arsenal will make South Korea less secure. It is likely to draw an escalatory response from the North, and Seoul may then have to face that threat on its own. Gone will be the experienced hand of Washington, the nuclear umbrella, and visits by US strategic platforms to South Korean ports and airfields. Instead, a South Korean nuclear arsenal would create the potential for any small incident on the peninsula to go nuclear, with little experience in either Korean capital on how to deescalate such crises. Except for a few instances, over the past forty years, the South Korean public and general life have been rather little affected by various developments in the North. That will change as Seoul will have to decide on its own how to respond to Pyongyang’s threatening actions.
President Yoon may have walked back his comments on pursuing the bomb, but to the South Korean public, it is not a fringe idea. Public opinion polls over the last decade show consistent majority support for nuclear possession. South Koreans also increasingly question the credibility of US extended deterrence. It is imperative for the South Korean government to widen the discourse with the public about what it with cost them to build a nuclear arsenal. Likewise, Washington must better understand why its extended deterrence is being questioned and how it can work with Seoul to correct it.
I have stressed that for South Korea, the decision to go nuclear comes with trade-offs and consequences too enormous to bear. The South can have its own nuclear arsenal—at great expense and sacrifice—or work with the Americans to remain under the nuclear umbrella with American troops stationed on the peninsula. It cannot have both.
The Disastrous Downsides of South Korea Building Nuclear Weapons
https://www.38north.org/2023/01/the-disastrous-downsides-of-south-korea-building-nuclear-weapons/
Is South Korea Willing to Lose Its World-leading Nuclear Power Program to Build the Bomb?
NRC Chairman Stephen Burns (second from the right) asks questions to officials from the Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety during his visit at the KINS APR1400 Simulator in Daejeon, Republic of Korea. Photo: Nuclear Regulatory Committee.
In a wide-ranging interview on January 11, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol warned Pyongyang that if North Korea’s nuclear threat continues to advance, South Korea would consider building nuclear weapons of its own or ask the United States to redeploy them on the Korean Peninsula. Although President Yoon walked back these comments at the World Economic Forum in Davos, they were published in the South Korean press and reinforced by some Republic of Korea (ROK) defense analysts. Cheon Seong-whun said, “President Yoon’s comment could turn out to be a watershed moment in the history of South Korea’s national security.”
A South Korean decision to build its own bomb could, indeed, be a watershed. Threatening Pyongyang does little besides give it a stronger justification to enhance its own nuclear arsenal. I believe that such a move would trigger a tsunami that would wipe out Seoul’s remarkable economic miracle and destroy the soft power it has established around the world.
President Yoon’s frustration of having to stand by as the North revved up all aspects of its nuclear and missile programs over the past year is understandable. But his latest threat, alongside the Biden administration’s tepid North Korea policy, demonstrates how both have little understanding of the 30-year history of how and why Pyongyang built a threatening nuclear arsenal.
In the book Hinge Points: An Inside Look at North Korea’s Nuclear Program, published last week, I describe how at key moments in the past, so-called hinge points—bad decisions by both sides—have landed us in the present quandary. President Yoon may well be moving to another hinge point, this one with disastrous consequences: a more dangerous Korean Peninsula and a greatly weakened South Korea.
The National Burden of a Nuclear Arsenal
Whereas President Yoon’s comment, “…we can have our own nuclear weapons pretty quickly, given our scientific and technological capabilities” is true, it doesn’t come close to capturing the national redirection, expense, and immense burden that Seoul would have to shoulder to field not just one bomb, but a nuclear arsenal to counter Pyongyang’s.
It is true that with its advanced technological capabilities, South Korea could probably build the bomb quickly. But a few bombs don’t make a nuclear deterrent, particularly if Seoul will have to go it alone. And let’s be clear, if Seoul were to go down this path, Washington could, and likely would, withdraw its nuclear umbrella. Building a nuclear arsenal to counter Pyongyang’s would require a major national redirection of its economy and diplomacy that would negatively affect nearly all facets of South Korean life for decades.
For nearly fifty years, South Korea has pursued a civilian nuclear energy program. It wisely focused on the middle of the fuel cycle—that is, reactor fuel fabrication, reactor construction and operation, and electricity production. It has built neither enrichment nor reprocessing facilities. Consequently, South Korea has no inventory of bomb-grade plutonium or uranium currently stockpiled. To build nuclear weapons, it would have to repurpose some of its civilian reactors to produce the plutonium bomb fuel (combined with using its laboratory-scale pyroprocessing facilities to extract plutonium) or construct a centrifuge facility to make highly enriched uranium. Either path would take at least two years to produce enough bomb fuel for even a few bombs. In the longer term, an effective nuclear deterrent would require new, dedicated nuclear weapons facilities, requiring substantial time and financial commitments.
The next step in building a bomb is weaponization—that is, designing, building and testing the nuclear devices. South Korea could surely master all scientific and engineering challenges of building a bomb—as it has demonstrated so convincingly in mastering civilian nuclear power generation. Some of the purely military aspects could be accomplished in concert with its conventional military technical complex. But to prove the design and fabrication, there would need to be nuclear testing, but where? Neighboring countries—China and Japan—would certainly object strongly, and there would undoubtedly be strong domestic opposition to tests from every South Korean province.
The nuclear warheads will also have to be integrated into delivery vehicles—such as ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, submarine-launched missiles or bombers. South Korea has all the basic building blocks, but it would still have substantial work to do to integrate the nuclear warheads into the delivery systems. Moreover, these requirements will continue to evolve as North Korea upgrades its offensive and defensive capabilities. The assembly, disassembly and fielding of nuclear devices pose serious safety and security risks and would have to be learned without help or advice from current nuclear powers. Seoul will also have to develop a command-and-control structure that is more stringent than anything it has done so far for its conventional military.
Another consequence of building a nuclear arsenal is that it will compete for resources—financial, personnel, and technical—with the South’s conventional military. As with other industries, such as electronics, automotive and consumer goods that depend on South Korean engineering and manufacturing, its military industry has risen to be among the best in the world. South Korea has become one of the top international suppliers of military hardware. Seoul’s sales pitch is that it can deliver NATO-attuned military hardware faster and at lower prices than the United States. Changing directions to focus on a nuclear arsenal will derail most of its conventional military export business.
Should South Korea decide to build its own nuclear arsenal, I believe the United States will almost surely end its military alliance and economic partnership with Seoul. Congressional sanctions would likely follow, trade would suffer, and technology cooperation would be derailed.
A South Korean Nuclear Arsenal Would Seriously Undermine and Possibly Destroy Its Civilian Nuclear Industry and Global Exports
President Yoon has vowed to reinvigorate South Korea’s civilian nuclear industry and greatly expand its exports. Shortly after his interview, he was in the United Arab Emirates to do just that.
In the 1980s, South Korea worked closely with the United States and Canada and quickly learned how to design, license, build, and operate nuclear reactors. By the 2000s, the Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO) licensed and built its own Advanced Power Reactor, the APR-1400. I visited South Korea’s impressive nuclear facilities about ten years ago. I found the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) in Daejeon to be a world-class research laboratory. Its High-Flux Advanced Neutron Application Reactor (HANARO) is one of the best in the world, which allows the South to do cutting-edge nuclear research and produce a variety of nuclear isotopes.
The fuel fabrication facility in Daejeon, operated by KEPCO Nuclear Fuels, is a marvel of modern engineering and manufacturing. Doosan Heavy Industries in Busan is one of the few places that can forge reactor vessels for modern light water reactors. It was there that our Korean host showed us one (pictured below) that was going to the Vogtle reactor being built by Westinghouse in Georgia. The United States no longer has the capacity for heavy forgings like reactor vessels. South Korea, along with Japan, are among the few in the world that still do. At the time, I concluded that South Korea was a model for the nuclear industry.
South Korean manufactured reactor vessel intended for the Vogtle nuclear power plant in Georgia (USA). Source: Siegfried Hecker.
In 2009, South Korea won the contract to build four of its APR-1400 reactors for the United Arab Emirates. It has done a remarkable job and is well on its way to putting the four reactors on the grid. South Korea’s success is in stark contrast to the huge cost overruns experienced by the French company Areva in Finland and Westinghouse in the United States. The two reactors to be built in South Carolina were scrapped after an expenditure of $9 billion. The two in Georgia are in better shape, but still greatly over budget. KEPCO, on the other hand, has proven itself competent and the supplier of choice to the western world. Poland recently signed a contract for a reactor from KEPCO.
The Barakah Nuclear Energy Power PLant in Al-Dafrah. Photo: AFP PHOTO / WAM / ABDULLAH AL-JUNAIBI.
Image: Republic of Korea Office of the President. Official Photographer: Shin Yugyeong
If Seoul decides to build the bomb, it will likely bring about an end to its nuclear export business, both for lack of customers and because the US can block the export of many South Korean nuclear technologies since they are based on US technologies licensed to the South. It may also lead to the shutdown of its domestic reactor fleet. South Korea imports all the uranium used for its civilian nuclear reactors and depends on other countries for enrichment services. Once South Korea withdraws from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), it may no longer be able to produce nuclear fuel, threatening the domestic nuclear industry, which generates one-third of South Korea’s electricity.
Seoul Would Deal a Serious Blow to the Nonproliferation Regime
South Korea would be the first democratic country to withdraw from the NPT, dealing a blow to decades of US leadership in preventing nuclear proliferation. As serious as the North Korean nuclear threat is, I believe Washington would have no choice but to condemn and counter the South’s decision to build the bomb. The nonproliferation regime is a complex fabric of treaties, agreements, assurances, practices, and international organizations. North Korea’s bomb and Iran’s pursuit of the bomb have already stressed the regime. The negative impacts of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are playing out now. South Korea should not join these countries in undermining the regime.
Its withdrawal or expulsion from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) would also put it in company with the only other country in that situation—namely North Korea. Instead of playing a supportive role in organizations like the IAEA, the Nuclear Suppliers Group and the Missile Technology Control Regime, South Korea would be shunned by the international community.
South Korea’s withdrawal from the NPT would also undermine one of the most effective elements of the regime, namely forging security alliances to extend security protection to allied states, eliminating the need for these countries to build their own nuclear deterrents. So far, the United States has done this successfully in Europe and in Northeast Asia.
Shooting Itself in the Foot
South Korea’s decision to build the bomb will be widely condemned. It is unrealistic to think that Washington would support such a move or turn a blind eye. Moreover, China would likely level its own sanctions or support the international community to do the same. Consequently, the quest for the bomb will threaten much of South Korea’s economic success and soft power it has so painstakingly constructed over the years. Its quest for the bomb will shatter South Korea’s phenomenal success with the likes of Samsung, Hyundai, and Hallyu.
The irony is that an indigenous nuclear arsenal will make South Korea less secure. It is likely to draw an escalatory response from the North, and Seoul may then have to face that threat on its own. Gone will be the experienced hand of Washington, the nuclear umbrella, and visits by US strategic platforms to South Korean ports and airfields. Instead, a South Korean nuclear arsenal would create the potential for any small incident on the peninsula to go nuclear, with little experience in either Korean capital on how to deescalate such crises. Except for a few instances, over the past forty years, the South Korean public and general life have been rather little affected by various developments in the North. That will change as Seoul will have to decide on its own how to respond to Pyongyang’s threatening actions.
President Yoon may have walked back his comments on pursuing the bomb, but to the South Korean public, it is not a fringe idea. Public opinion polls over the last decade show consistent majority support for nuclear possession. South Koreans also increasingly question the credibility of US extended deterrence. It is imperative for the South Korean government to widen the discourse with the public about what it with cost them to build a nuclear arsenal. Likewise, Washington must better understand why its extended deterrence is being questioned and how it can work with Seoul to correct it.
I have stressed that for South Korea, the decision to go nuclear comes with trade-offs and consequences too enormous to bear. The South can have its own nuclear arsenal—at great expense and sacrifice—or work with the Americans to remain under the nuclear umbrella with American troops stationed on the peninsula. It cannot have both.
2. North Korea's famine at worst in more than 30 years - report
This very much bears watching. The consequences could be catastrophic.
North Korea's famine at worst in more than 30 years - report
The isolated nation finds itself grappling with a severe need for humanitarian aid as the need to feed citizens only increases.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFF Published: JANUARY 21, 2023 04:09
Updated: JANUARY 21, 2023 19:15
Jerusalem Post
North Korea has found itself dealing with its worst famine since 1990, as the troubled nation grapples with one of its worst humanitarian issues in history. Scarcity of food and availability of product has decreased significantly since the nation isolated during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The nation has failed to meet the bare minimum for providing food, the World Food Program reported. Kim's regime is more focused on the North Korean nuclear program instead of feeding its citizens - with diplomatic relations keeping other nations from stepping in and providing necessary aid.
North Korea has grappled with chronic food insecurity for years, and would require an overhaul of human rights - from property rights to a thriving service sector, 38 North reported. The publication is a sector of the Washington DC-based Stimson Center.
Mismanaged resources
North Korea has found itself dealing with mass hunger issues for years. In the 1990s, they were faced with an absolutely debilitating famine that is believed to have wiped out 600,000 to a million people. This was estimated as somewhere between 3 and 5 percent of the overall population prior to the famine.
The national food insecurity issue did not happen overnight. Through the years, North Korea’s economic mismanagement from the top down, with the intention of pushing global messaging that North Korea can stand on its own financially and politically.
North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un oversees a missile launch at an undisclosed location in North Korea, in this undated photo released on October 10, 2022 by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). (credit: KCNA VIA REUTERS/FILE PHOTO)
The nation primarily consumes grains produced within the country, but they are largely dependent on imported goods. The nation’s image on the global scale has made accessing these products increasingly more difficult.
When the COVID-19 pandemic hit, the nation went into intense self-isolation including restricted movement within the country. This only made accessing food increasingly more difficult. After armed troops closed borders and stopped trade from January 2020, the economy was only further disrupted, the World Food Program reported.
According to 38 North, the nation is not only lacking in food resources, but “the regime apparently failed to secure enough paper and ink from China to print its own money; since the fall of 2021, it has been forced to issue nearly worthless scrip, or money coupons, introducing confusion and distorting currency markets.”
Additionally, the war in Ukraine has managed to add additional stress to survival in North Korea. Prices across the globe for food, energy, and soil have only exacerbated the issue in North Korea.
North Korea’s obsession with portraying a certain image has kept from accurate reporting to occur. However, grain balance reports gathered by the United Nations (UN) have shown that the nation still, somehow, has only managed to have two famines in 25 years - yet yield crazy amounts of garbage, still.
Jerusalem Post
3. North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site: No Signs of an Imminent Test
Images at the link.
North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site: No Signs of an Imminent Test
https://www.38north.org/2023/01/north-koreas-punggye-ri-nuclear-test-site-no-signs-of-an-imminent-test/
Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates ongoing activity at North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site, including the presence of a large number of personnel on site and ongoing activity around the Main Administrative Area. Snow clearing and foot trails around the entrance of Tunnel No. 3 (formerly known as the South Portal) suggest activity continues in and around the tunnel. Some reports suggest the tunnel may have been test-ready since last summer. What is clear is that the tunnel can be easily readied for use if and when a decision to test is made.
Tunnel No. 3 (Former South Portal)
There has been little notable activity at Tunnel No. 3 complex in recent months. While access to the test tunnels was restored during the first half of last year, no new support buildings or excavation has been observed since last August. In October 2022, both a long winding shelter—likely to shield test equipment from inclement weather—and a drum support bed for four 55-gallon-size drums were installed. The content of these drums is unknown. In imagery from January 10, snow has been cleared from the entrance, and foot trails are visible, suggesting activity continues in and around the tunnel.
Figure 1. Activity observed in and around Tunnel No. 3 complex.
Image Pleiades NEO © Airbus DS 2022. Image Pleiades NEO © Airbus DS 2023. For media options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Main Administrative Area
The composition of the Main Administrative Area continues to evolve. One support building that was erected last year has been razed in recent months, suggesting its temporary nature, and new structures have been added or are under construction. Additionally, in imagery from January 10, over 40 personnel are observed in the main courtyard and around the construction area, substantiating the presence of a sizable workforce on site.
Figure 2. New structures and over 40 personnel visible in courtyard of Main Administrative Area.
Image Pleiades NEO © Airbus DS 2022. Image Pleiades NEO © Airbus DS 2023. For media options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Tunnel No. 4 (Former West Portal)
There are no indicators yet of efforts to excavate a new entrance for Tunnel No. 4, which differs from other portals according to North Korean diagrams in that it has only a single test chamber. The main service road leading to the tunnel was heavily damaged in early 2022; however, between August 14, 2022 to January 10, 2023, was repaired and widened, restoring access to this area and suggesting an intention to reaccess the tunnel in the future.
Figure 3. Road to Tunnel No. 4 improved between August 14, 2022 and January 10, 2023.
Image Pleiades NEO © Airbus DS 2022. Image Pleiades NEO © Airbus DS 2023. For media options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
4. Otto Warmbier Traveled To North Korea For Fun — And Returned 17 Months Later With Fatal Brain Damage
Lest we never forget what the brutal regime did to him.
And to honor Otto Congress passed the"Otto Warmbier Countering North Korea Censorship and Surveillance Act," in the fiscal year (FY) 2023 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA).
Now it is up to us to use this bill as our "mission tasking" to develop the plans to use information in north Korea to achieve US and ROK/US alliance strategic objectives.
https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/senate-bill/2129/text?r=8&s=1
Otto Warmbier Traveled To North Korea For Fun — And Returned 17 Months Later With Fatal Brain Damage
By Austin Harvey | Edited By Cara Johnson
Published January 21, 2023
allthatsinteresting.com · by Austin Harvey · January 21, 2023
In 2016, Otto Warmbier was sentenced to 15 years of hard labor for allegedly stealing a propaganda poster from a North Korean hotel, but he suffered a brain injury that rendered him comatose immediately after his trial — and he died without ever telling his side of the story.
Otto Warmbier, a 21-year-old commerce and economics major at the University of Virginia, wanted to go on an adventure before his life became a never-ending stream of banking spreadsheets. So before heading to a semester abroad in Hong Kong, he decided to take a trip to North Korea — a decision that tragically altered the course of his life.
Xinhua/Lu Rui via Getty ImagesOtto Warmbier is escorted to his public trial on March 16, 2016, after being detained by North Korean officials in Pyongyang two months earlier.
The U.S. State Department advised against the journey, and Warmbier’s parents didn’t love the idea, either. But Warmbier was an intelligent young man, a math whiz and a star athlete who had been the salutatorian, homecoming king, and prom king of his Ohio high school. As his mother later said, “Why would you say no to a kid like this?”
Unfortunately, Warmbier’s adventure turned into a nightmare when he was detained by North Korean authorities who accused him of committing a “hostile act against the state.” The crime? Allegedly stealing a propaganda poster.
The 17 months that followed were nothing short of harrowing, but when Otto Warmbier returned home, the true horrors of his imprisonment were revealed: He was in a coma with severe brain damage, and his health was rapidly declining. He died within a week.
To this day, no one knows what really happened to Otto Warmbier while he was being held in North Korea, but his family firmly believes his death was the result of “awful, torturous treatment.”
The Impressive Life Of Otto Warmbier
Otto Warmbier was born in Cincinnati, Ohio on Dec. 12, 1994, the eldest child of Fred and Cindy Warmbier. According to GQ, Warmbier was a well-rounded youth, graduating as the salutatorian of his class and showing prowess as a swimmer and a soccer player.
TwitterBefore his trip to North Korea, Otto Warmbier was a promising young student with plans to become an investment banker.
He was awarded the titles of both homecoming and prom king at Wyoming High School, which wasn’t surprising considering his “athletic prowess, classic good looks, and unending charisma,” as a classmate later wrote of him in the Post Independent. “But Otto still felt like everyone’s friend in our small town of Wyoming, Ohio, given his nondiscriminatory friendliness.”
During his salutatorian speech at his high school graduation, Warmbier found himself at a loss for words. He kept things simple, opting to quote The Office: “I wish there was a way to know you’re in the good old days before you’ve actually left them.”
After high school, Warmbier earned a scholarship to the University of Virginia. He was known to be studious and meticulous, and he even joined a fraternity full of “kind of nerdy dudes.” His friends said he put his studies and his family above everything else.
Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call/Getty ImagesFred and Cindy Warmbier received recognition during President Donald Trump’s 2018 State of the Union address.
At the end of 2015, Warmbier was preparing to study abroad in Hong Kong the following spring — but he wanted to go on an adventure first. The college junior soon learned about Young Pioneer Tours, a Chinese company that advertised “budget travel to destinations your mother would rather you stayed away from,” according to The New York Times. He signed up for a five-day, four-night “New Year’s Party Tour” to North Korea, and in late December, he boarded a plane to Pyongyang.
Upon their arrival, Warmbier and the other members of his tour group had their cameras confiscated and their smartphones searched for materials that could be considered “subversive” to the North Korean government — and then they entered one of the most repressive countries on Earth.
Otto Warmbier’s Shocking Arrest In North Korea
Warmbier’s roommate during the tour was a British man named Danny Gratton. “From the second I met him we hit it off,” Gratton later told BBC. “He was very bright, intelligent, and likable.”
FacebookDanny Gratton (second from the left) and Otto Warmbier (far right) with two other Young Pioneers in front of statues of North Korea’s “supreme leaders.”
The Young Pioneers were situated in a hotel commonly known as the “Alcatraz of Fun.” It sits on an island off the mainland and features five restaurants, a bar, a sauna, a massage parlor, and a bowling alley.
After a New Year’s Eve celebration held in Pyongyang’s main square, the group returned to their isolated hotel. Some headed to the bar, while others, like Gratton, went to the bowling alley. He later recalled that there was a “two-hour window” where nobody could account for Warmbier, but when Gratton got back to their shared room around 4:30 a.m., he found Warmbier sound asleep.
However, authorities had just captured grainy CCTV footage of some unidentifiable person tearing down a propaganda poster in a restricted area of the hotel — and they blamed Otto Warmbier. On Jan. 2, 2016, as the Young Pioneers went through immigration control at Pyongyang before boarding their plane back to China, North Korean officials tapped Warmbier on the shoulder and led him away.
“I made an ironic comment,” Gratton recalled. “I actually said, ‘Well, we won’t be seeing you again.’ He sort of laughed at me, and that was the last we saw of him.”
The ‘Confession,’ Confinement, And Death Of Otto Warmbier
Back in America, Warmbier’s parents had no idea what had happened to their son. He should have been gone for less than a week — but it wasn’t until late January that the North Korean government confirmed they had arrested Warmbier.
A month later, Otto Warmbier made his television debut.
TwitterOtto Warmbier shed tears during his televised “confession” as he commented that he regretted his actions and pleaded to be sent back to America.
Standing in front of two oversized portraits of North Korean “supreme leaders” Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il, Warmbier spoke to the cameras and thanked the North Korean government for the “opportunity to apologize for my crime, to beg for forgiveness, and to beg for any assistance to save my life.”
Dressed in a suit and fighting back tears, Warmbier said he attempted to steal the propaganda poster as a “trophy” for a Methodist church back home to “harm the work ethic and motivation of the Korean people.”
Eventually, he could no longer hold the tears back. “I have made the single worst decision of my life,” he cried, “but I am only human.”
Of course, the story Warmbier told during the broadcast was littered with inconsistencies. For instance, Warmbier was Jewish and had no affiliation with a Methodist church. This led many to suspect that the words he spoke weren’t his own.
Regardless, in March 2016, the North Korean government sentenced him to 15 years of hard labor for crimes against the state. Meanwhile, a campaign back in the United States pushed for Warmbier’s return.
It took more than a year, but a delegation of American officials finally brought the young student home in June 2017. Unfortunately, the occasion was anything but happy.
According to Daniel Kanter, one of the doctors who looked after Warmbier, he returned in “a state of unresponsive wakefulness.” He was unable to speak, but he showed “spontaneous eye opening and blinking.” According to the nurses who had cared for him in North Korea, Warmbier had been comatose since the day after his trial in March 2016. He’d never even made it to the labor camp.
TwitterOtto Warmbier was in a coma with severe brain damage when he returned from North Korea.
Naturally, North Korea denied allegations that they had abused Warmbier in any way. Officials claimed that Warmbier had contracted botulism and suffered an allergic reaction to a medication. He died on June 19, 2017, surrounded by his family in the hospital.
Fred and Cindy Warmbier never believed North Korea’s story. They firmly believed that their son had been physically tortured while in prison. However, a medical examination found no signs that Warmbier had been beaten, noting that he’d fallen into a coma after suffering from a lack of blood and oxygen to his brain — potentially due to cardiopulmonary arrest.
It’s unlikely that the truth about Otto Warmbier’s suspicious arrest, trial, and death will ever be uncovered. “We don’t know what happened to him,” said coroner Dr. Lakshmi Sammarco, “and that’s the bottom line.”
After learning about the tragic fate of Otto Warmbier, read the story of Lauren Spierer, another college student who vanished without a trace. Or, discover 46 facts about North Korea.
allthatsinteresting.com · by Austin Harvey · January 21, 2023
5. N. Korea received US$2.3 mln in humanitarian aid last year: OCHA data
N. Korea received US$2.3 mln in humanitarian aid last year: OCHA data | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · January 22, 2023
SEOUL, Jan. 22 (Yonhap) -- North Korea saw a significant decline in humanitarian assistance from the international community last year amid prolonged border closures due to the coronavirus pandemic, data showed Sunday.
The financial tracking service of the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) revealed that assistance to Pyongyang from international organizations and other agencies in 2022 reached around $2.3 million, down sharply from $14 million the previous year.
Switzerland's provision for the reclusive country last year through the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) and the Swiss Development Cooperation had accounted for 69.5 percent of the total funding, or $1.6 million.
Sweden provided $513,927 to the North last year via the Swedish Red Cross, while the Norwegian Red Cross in Oslo contributed $199,601.
Data showed that several countries, including Canada, Finland, France and Germany, had offered contributions to the North in 2021 but did not provide any last year.
Switzerland will contribute another $1.2 million through UNICEF this year for "essential nutrition services" in the impoverished country, according to the data as of Jan. 4 shown on the OCHA website.
julesyi@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · January 22, 2023
6. JSC chairman urges combat readiness over Lunar New Year holiday
While most in the US do not celebrate this holiday it is obviously one of the most important holidays in Asia and one of the two most important holidays in Korea (the other being Chuseok - or Korean Thanksgiving in the fall).
The Chairman is right to be wary.
To all my Korean friends: 새해 복 많이 받으세요 Happy New year.
JSC chairman urges combat readiness over Lunar New Year holiday | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · January 22, 2023
SEOUL, Jan. 22 (Yonhap) -- Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) Chairman Gen. Kim Seung-kyum called military commanders across the nation Sunday and urged them to maintain combat readiness over the Lunar New Year holiday, his office said.
Kim made the phone calls to a border ground observation post battalion commander, a Navy vessel captain, an Air Force senior pilot, a Marine Corps guard captain and a coastal security unit battalion commander.
"Thanks to the service members who are doing their best to fulfill their duties on the front line even during the Seol holiday, the people are able to have confidence in the military and peacefully enjoy the holiday," the chairman was quoted as saying. Seol is the Korean name for Lunar New Year.
Kim asked the commanders to firmly defend the nation and do everything they can to protect the lives and safety of the people with the readiness of "waiting for the enemy while embracing a spear."
"The military readiness posture must always be firmly maintained, and it is especially necessary to establish a 'posture for decisive battle' for completing one's duty through victory against any threat of the enemy and provocation," he was quoted as saying.
This undated photo provided by the Joint Chiefs of Staff shows JSC Chairman Gen. Kim Seung-kyum (2nd from R). (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
hague@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · January 22, 2023
7. Vice unification minister calls on N. Korea to return to dialogue
Imjingak. Many memories of many ceremonies there.
Vice unification minister calls on N. Korea to return to dialogue | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · January 22, 2023
SEOUL, Jan. 22 (Yonhap) -- Vice Unification Minister Kim Ki-woong called on North Korea on Sunday to halt provocations and return to dialogue, saying Seoul stands by its offers for talks.
Kim made the remark during a memorial service in Imjingak, Paju, just south of the inter-Korean border, held by people whose ancestors are in North Korea, to mark the Lunar New Year.
"The North Korean authorities must immediately halt provocations that threaten the survival of our people and respond to our government's offers for talks," he said.
"The North Korean authorities are completely disregarding their basic duty to take care of their people's livelihoods, people's natural demands to allow families to meet and our government's proposal to jointly create a prosperous future, and are following the wrong path," he added.
The vice minister urged the North to choose the right path, saying all of Seoul's offers, including its proposal for talks on arranging reunions for families separated by the 1950-53 Korean War, remain valid.
"The door to dialogue remains open," he said.
Vice Unification Minister Kim Ki-woong gives remarks at a memorial service held by people whose ancestors are in North Korea, in Imjingak, Paju, 28 kilometers northwest of Seoul, on Jan. 22, 2023. (Yonhap)
hague@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · January 22, 2023
8. Xi thanks N.K. leader for condolence message after Jiang's death
A slow news day for the Propaganda and Agitation Department?
I guess the two alliance partners remain "closer than lips and teeth."
Xi thanks N.K. leader for condolence message after Jiang's death | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · January 22, 2023
SEOUL, Jan. 22 (Yonhap) -- Chinese President Xi Jinping sent a message to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, thanking him for his condolence message following the death of former Chinese leader Jiang Zemin, the North's state media said Sunday.
"On behalf of the Party, government and people of the DPRK, You, Comrade General Secretary, sent a message of condolence before anyone else to express condolences and sympathy over the death of Comrade Jiang Zemin," Xi wrote in the message received Jan. 17, according to the Korean Central News Agency.
DPRK stands for North Korea's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
"On behalf of the Chinese party, government and people, I express my heartfelt thanks to You and convey the thanks of the bereaved family of Comrade Jiang Zemin," he added.
Xi described Jiang as "an outstanding leader with high prestige," who "made an important contribution to consolidating and developing the traditional China-DPRK friendship as a close friend of the Korean Party and people."
"Under the new situation, the Chinese side, together with the Korean side, is willing to continue to defend, consolidate and develop the China-DPRK relations with credit, thus making positive contributions to promoting the socialist causes in the two countries, providing happiness to the two peoples and to achieving the regional peace, stability, development and prosperity," Xi said, according to the KCNA.
Kim sent a message and flowers of condolence shortly after Jiang's death on Nov. 30.
Chinese President Xi Jinping (R) and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un take a walk at the Kumsusan State Guesthouse in Pyongyang on June 21, 2019, in this file photo released by the North's official Korean Central News Agency. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
hague@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · January 22, 2023
9. Face masks no longer required indoors in Korea from Jan. 30
Face masks no longer required indoors in Korea from Jan. 30
koreaherald.com · by Kim Arin · January 20, 2023
Starting Jan. 30, wearing face masks will no longer be required indoors in Korea -- a move that comes three years after the mandate was introduced.
Prime Minister Han Duk-soo told a government meeting Friday that with the exception of some high-risk places including hospitals, pharmacies and public transit, face masks will cease being mandatory.
“COVID-19 cases have been on the decline for three weeks in a row, and the situation has remained stable in Korea,” he said, adding that he believed the country was ready to move on.
Jee Young-mee, commissioner of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, said in a press briefing held the same day that though the mandate is being lifted, wearing face masks would remain “highly recommended.”
“If you’ve come into a close contact with a COVID-19 patient or someone with COVID-19-like symptoms, you should be careful and wear mask around others. Whenever you are with someone at high risk of severe COVID-19, you should be wearing a mask.” she said.
“In crowded places or places with poor ventilation, you are strongly advised to wear a mask for your own safety and the safety of people who are vulnerable.”
Jee said that the end of the mandate would begin Jan. 30, following the long Seollal holiday weekend from Saturday to Tuesday, to avoid a post-holiday surge.
The upcoming Seollal is the second major national holiday without social distancing rules, following Chuseok in September.
For the past week, Korea has been posting 32,866 cases and 41 deaths per day on average, down from the prior week’s 47,837 cases and 56 deaths.
The share of cases of the omicron BA.5 subvariant, which has been dominant here since July, dropped below 50 percent for the first time in the second week of December, giving way to BN.1 and other variants.
Friday marks three years since Korea identified its first case of COVID-19. The cumulative count as of Thursday midnight stood at 29,955,366 cases and 33,134 deaths.
By Kim Arin (arin@heraldcorp.com)
koreaherald.com · by Kim Arin · January 20, 2023
10. Rising food prices sap North Koreans’ holiday cheer ahead of Lunar New Year
The failed economy and the haves and have nots.
Rising food prices sap North Koreans’ holiday cheer ahead of Lunar New Year
But even when there’s not enough to eat, the country imports 120 tons of fruit for high-ranking officials.
By Hyemin Son and Myungchul Lee for RFA Korean
2023.01.21
rfa.org
The holiday spirit in North Korea is at a low ebb as higher prices for meat, rice and other foods make celebrating the Lunar New Year a costly affair, sources in the country told Radio Free Asia.
The Lunar New Year, along with the autumn harvest Chuseok festival, are the two most important holidays in Korean culture, when extended families gather for jesa, a ceremony and feast that honors ancestors.
“We have to prepare for the Lunar New Year holiday, but prices are rising steeply, so the hearts of ordinary residents are heavy,” a resident of the northeastern province of North Hamgyong told RFA’s Korean Service on condition of anonymity for security reasons.
Over the past month, rice prices jumped 27%, corn rose 17%, and pork, which was already very expensive and unaffordable for most people, climbed 11%. Other items like cooking oil and chili powder also saw significant price hikes.
“Residents who went to the market to buy meat for the holiday are discouraged,” the source said. “They complain that prices always go up when the holidays come around, so they wish there were no holidays.”
Fruit for the elite
But even as most ordinary people struggle, the government is importing tons of Chinese fruit – lychees, pineapples and mangoes – to be given to high-ranking officials in the capital of Pyongyang.
Attractive piles of fruit are a key part of the jesa ceremony, but even more ordinary fruit has become scarce and expensive in North Korea because of an import ban imposed since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic three years ago.
“Various fruits have been shipped into North Korea in huge amounts on the Dandong-Sinuiju freight train since yesterday,” a North Korea-related source in the Chinese border city of Dandong told RFA’s Korean Service on Tuesday on condition of anonymity for security reasons.
The source said that “southern fruits” are in most of the shipments, meaning that the fruits are cultivated in southern China and are seen as exotic and special. In South Korea, the term is used to refer to fruits like lychee, mangosteen or durian, but in North Korea, bananas and pineapples are rare enough to also fit the bill.
“This is the first time that North Korean trading companies imported southern fruits in such large quantities since the coronavirus crisis began,” the Dandong source said. “The North Koreans have been saying that the southern fruits will be gifted to officials in Pyongyang on Lunar New Year’s Day.”
The source said that one 17-car freight train left Dandong headed toward Sinuiju on the North Korean side of the Yalu River that day, and two of the cars were loaded to the brim with tangerines, bananas and pineapples, likely amounting to about 120 tons of fruit in total.
Police and bribes
Meanwhile, on the streets local officials are trying to enforce price controls to mitigate inflation. But sources say that merchants are able to bribe the police when they are caught raising prices.
During the holiday season, the markets are usually bustling with customers scrambling to get all the food they need for a proper jesa, but not this year, a resident of the northwestern province of North Pyongan province told RFA on condition of anonymity to speak freely.
“The usual holiday atmosphere … is nowhere to be seen. When residents check the price of items they want to buy, they just seem hesitant,” she said. “Ordinary residents are in such a difficult situation. Their resentment towards the authorities … is increasing day by day.”
Translated by Claire Shinyoung Oh Lee and Leejin J. Chung. Written in English by Eugene Whong. Edited by Malcolm Foster.
rfa.org
11. Why are South Koreans losing faith in America's nuclear umbrella?
If we are going to abandon Korea and not commit to extended deterrence then we are abandoning 28,500 American troops and their families in Korea too.
And every time we hear a pundit say we should not trade Seattle, LA, or New York for Seoul, it just decreases confidence in the US.
I am becoming more and more convinced that we are going to re-deploy tactical nuclear weapons to demonstrate our commitment to extended deterrence and the defense of the ROK.
Why are South Koreans losing faith in America's nuclear umbrella? | CNN
CNN · by Paula Hancocks · January 22, 2023
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Why South Korea wants its own nukes despite US protection
02:48 - Source: CNN
Seoul CNN —
They have them, so we need them.
That is the fundamental argument for South Koreans who want their country to develop its own nuclear weapons. It’s about the need to protect themselves from an aggressive northern neighbor that is already a nuclear power in all but name and whose leader Kim Jong Un has vowed an “exponential increase” in his arsenal.
The counter-argument, which has has long stopped Seoul from pursuing the bomb, lies in the likely consequences. Developing nukes would not only upset the country’s relationship with the United States, it would likely invite sanctions that could strangle Seoul’s access to nuclear power. And that is to say nothing of the regional arms race it would almost inevitably provoke.
But which side of the argument South Koreans find themselves on appears to be changing.
Ten years ago, calling for South Korean nuclear weapons was a fringe idea that garnered little serious coverage. Today it has become a mainstream discussion.
Recent opinion polls show a majority of South Koreans support their country having its own nuclear weapons program; a string of prominent academics who once shunned the idea have switched sides; even President Yoon Suk Yeol has floated the idea.
So what’s changed?
A missile is fired during a US-South Korea joint training exercise on May 25, 2022.
South Korean Defense Ministry/Getty Images
Old question, new answer
For supporters, Seoul developing its own nukes would finally answer the age-old question: “Would Washington risk San Francisco for Seoul in the event of nuclear war?”
At present, South Korea comes under Washington’s Extended Deterrence Strategy, which includes the nuclear umbrella, meaning the US is obligated to come to its aid in the event of attack.
For some, that is enough reassurance. But the details of exactly what form that “aid” might take aren’t entirely clear. As that age-old question points out, faced with the possibility of a retaliatory nuclear strike on US soil, Washington would have a compelling reason to limit its involvement.
Perhaps better not to ask the question then. As Cheong Seong-chang of the Sejong Institute puts it, “If South Korea has nuclear weapons, we can respond ourselves to North Korea’s attack, so there is no reason for the United States to get involved.”
EAST SEA, SOUTH KOREA - SEPTEMBER 30: In this handout image provided by the South Korean Defense Ministry, The submarine USS Annapolis (front), U.S. nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan (C) and South Korean and Japan warships seen during a combined trilateral anti-submarine exercise on September 30, 2022 in East sea South Korea. South Korea, U.S. and Japan held a trilateral anti-submarine exercise near the peninsula for the first time in five years as part of efforts to sharpen deterrence against North Korean military threats. (Photo by South Korean Defense Ministry via Getty Images)
South Korean Defense Ministry/Getty Images
Why Asia's arms race risks spinning out of control
There are other reasons for South Koreans to question their decades-old leap of faith in US protection, too. Looming large among them is Donald Trump. The former US president, citing the expense involved, made no secret of his desire to pull 28,500 US troops out of South Korea and questioned why the US had to protect the country. Given Trump has already announced his presidential bid for the 2024 election that’s an issue that still plays heavy on people’s minds.
“The US simply isn’t perceived to be as reliable as it once was,” Ankit Panda of Carnegie Endowment for Peace said. “Even if the Biden administration behaves like a traditional US administration and offers all the right reassurance signals to South Korea… policy makers will have to keep in the back of their mind the possibility of the US once again electing an administration that would have a different approach for South Korea.”
But the loss of faith goes beyond Trump.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol in Seoul on August 17, 2022.
Chung Sung-Jun/AP
More recently, President Yoon Suk Yeol floated the idea of US tactical nuclear weapons being redeployed to the peninsula or South Korea possessing “its own nuclear capabilities” if the North Korean threat intensifies. Washington’s rejection of both ideas has been conspicuous. When Yoon said this month that Seoul and Washington were discussing joint nuclear exercises President Joe Biden was asked the same day whether such discussions were indeed underway. He responded simply, “No.”
Following Yoon’s comments, US Defense Department Press Secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder reiterated the US’ commitment to the Extended Deterrence Strategy, saying that “to date, (the strategy) has worked and it has worked very well.”
In a Chosun Ilbo newspaper interview published on January 2, Yoon said of these guarantees, “it’s difficult to convince our people with just that.”
But in another interview, with The Wall Street Journal on the sidelines of Davos last week, Yoon walked those comments back saying, “I’m fully confident about the US’ extended deterrence.”
An inconsistent message rarely soothes concerns on either side of the argument.
A middle ground?
On Thursday, US think-tank, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), suggested what might seem a middle ground – the creation of “a framework for joint nuclear planning” that could “help to develop stronger bonds of trust between the allies in the current environment.”
It said this framework could be “similar to a NATO planning group for nuclear weapons use, with planning conducted bilaterally and trilaterally (with Japan) and control remaining in the hands of the United States.”
But the CSIS made clear it did not support “the deployment of US tactical nuclear weapons to the peninsula or condoning South Korea purchasing its own nuclear weapons.”
Other experts too, like Professor Jeffrey Lewis, a nuclear non-proliferation expert at Middlebury Institute in California, see joint planning and exercises as “more realistic options than either nuclear weapons or nuclear sharing.”
North Korean leader leader Kim Jong Un attends the 12th Meeting of the Political Bureau of the 8th Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK), in Pyongyang, North Korea, in this photo released on December 31, 2022 by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). KCNA via REUTERS
KCNA/Reuters
Kim Jong Un calls for exponential increase in North Korea's nuclear arsenal amid threats from South, US
For some in Yoon’s conservative party that is simply not enough. They see a nuclear-weapons-free South Korea being threatened by a nuclear-armed North Korea and want nothing less than US nukes redeployed to the Korean Peninsula.
They seem destined to be disappointed. Washington moved its tactical weapons out of South Korea in 1991 after decades of deployment and there are no signs it will consider reversing that decision.
“Putting US nukes back on the peninsula makes no military sense,” said Bruce Klingner of Heritage Foundation.
“They currently are on very hard to find, very hard to target weapons platforms and to take weapons off of them and put them into a bunker in South Korea, which is a very enticing target for North Korea, what you’ve done is you’ve degraded your capabilities.”
Nuclear fallout
That leaves many South Koreans seeing just one option – and some are losing patience.
Cheong, a recent convert to South Korea acquiring the bomb, believes the Extended Deterrence Strategy has already reached its limit in dealing with North Korea and only a nuclear-armed South Korea can avert a war.
“Of course, North Korea does not want South Korea’s nuclear armament. Now they can ignore the South Korean military,” Cheong said.
“But they must be nervous, (because if South Korea decides to pursue the bomb) it has the nuclear material to make more than 4,000 nuclear weapons.”
Still, it’s not just fear of upsetting the relationship with the US that holds Seoul back from such a course. If South Korea were to leave the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) the effect on its domestic nuclear power system would likely be swift and devastating.
“First of all, the nuclear suppliers group would cut off fissile material to South Korea, which is reliant for all of its fissile material on outside suppliers. It could lead to international sanctions,” Klingner said.
South Korean and US jets take part in a joint air drill on Nov. 18, 2022.
South Korean Defense Ministry/AP
Then there is the regional arms race it would likely provoke, with neighboring China making clear it will not tolerate such a build up.
“Probably China is going to be unhappy and it’ll basically stop at nothing to prevent South Korea from going nuclear,” said professor Andrei Lankov, long time North Korea expert from Kookmin University.
Given the likely fallout, Seoul might do better to take comfort in the guarantees already on offer from the US.
“The 28,500 US troops on the peninsula have a very real tripwire effect. In the event of a breakout of hostilities between the two Koreas, it is simply unavoidable for the US not to get involved. We have skin in the game,” Panda said.
Finally, there are also those cautioning that even if South Korea did acquire nuclear weapons, its problems would hardly disappear.
“So the funny thing about nuclear weapons is that your weapons don’t offset their weapons,” said Lewis at Middlebury Institute.
“Look at Israel. Israel is nuclear armed and is terrified of Iran getting nuclear weapons, so Israel’s nuclear weapons don’t in any fundamental way offset the threat they feel from Iran’s nuclear weapons.”
CNN · by Paula Hancocks · January 22, 2023
12. How US-led alliance aims to mend Japan-South Korea ties and rein in China
The trilateral relationship is very important to the national security of all three countries.
How US-led alliance aims to mend Japan-South Korea ties and rein in China
- Washington hopes ‘trilateral’ strategy will contain Beijing, while Seoul seeks to deter Pyongyang, observer says
- But controversy over Japanese compensation for WWII victims and South Korean reliance on Chinese trade could limit cooperation
Seong Hyeon Choi
+ myNEWS
Published: 11:00pm, 21 Jan, 2023
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3207619/how-us-led-alliance-aims-mend-japan-south-korea-ties-and-rein-china?utm_source=rss_feed
Trilateral cooperation among the US, Japan and South Korea could bolster Washington’s goal of containing China and revitalise efforts to resolve long-standing obstacles between Tokyo and Seoul, analysts said.
The strategy has been a key focus of recent talks by US, Japanese and South Korean diplomats and top leaders.
On January 13, South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin and his Japanese counterpart Yoshimasa Hayashi discussed the strengthening of ties among the three countries in a telephone conversation.
The call coincided with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s visit to the US, where he pledged to move quickly to repair strained relations with South Korea.
Park Won-gon, professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said the White House hoped that trilateral cooperation could help South Korea and Japan overcome unstable ties, with the US taking the lead in the relationship.
“There are certain limits in restoring Seoul and Tokyo’s relations, considering the difficulties in overcoming the historical experiences between the two countries,” Park said.
“So it is more advantageous to promote multilateral cooperation between Seoul, Tokyo and Washington to maintain the stability and sustainability of the security commitment against China and North Korea,” he added.
03:02
South Korea’s top diplomat in Japan for first bilateral talks in nearly 5 years
South Korea’s top diplomat in Japan for first bilateral talks in nearly 5 years
One major stumbling block between Tokyo and Seoul has been compensation for South Koreans forced to work for Japanese firms during World War II. But a recent South Korean proposal to use a domestic fund rather than direct payments by Japanese firms has raised hopes for a thaw.
In 2018, a ruling by a South Korean court ordered two Japanese companies – Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd and Nippon Steel Corp – to compensate wartime victims.
Tokyo refused to abide by the ruling and insisted that the compensation issue had already been settled under a 1965 treaty, a position disputed by Seoul.
Park said Seoul’s new proposal – if accepted by Tokyo – could help put bilateral ties back on the right track, but the South Korean government would still need to address issues such as public demand for a formal apology by Japan.
“It will certainly improve the relations between the two countries,” Park said. “But Seoul’s new plan must be accompanied by contributions from the responsible Japanese firms and Tokyo’s apology to achieve the minimum approval among the South Korean public.”
01:57
South Korean compensation plan for Japan’s wartime forced labour victims draws ire
South Korean compensation plan for Japan’s wartime forced labour victims draws ire
Frank Aum, senior expert on Northeast Asia at the United States Institute of Peace, said Seoul’s new plan to resolve strife with Tokyo had already encountered resistance from victims, which has affected efforts to restore bilateral cooperation.
“If the two countries cannot find an acceptable compromise, then the lingering tensions will continue, bilateral relations and cooperation will remain suboptimal, and the broader efforts by the United States, Japan and South Korea to advance mutual interests in the Indo-Pacific region will be undermined,” Aum said.
Speaking at Johns Hopkins University last week, Kishida said restoring strained ties with South Korea had become one of his priorities.
“The security partnership among Japan, the United States and the Republic of Korea is becoming increasingly important. I intend to enhance security cooperation among our three countries,” Kishida said.
“You may be worried about the relationship between Japan and the Republic of Korea, but I intend to resolve the bilateral issues of concern as quickly as possible to restore sound Japan-ROK relations and further promote them,” he added.
The South Korean foreign ministry said patching up ties with Tokyo was one of Seoul’s priorities for the coming year.
Announced last week, the ministry’s 2023 action plan described the alliance with Washington as the “most important partnership” for South Korea and outlined plans to restore relations with Japan “to the best days”.
“South Korea, Japan and the United States all have different emphases in trilateral cooperation,” Park said. “Washington has a strong intention to use trilateral ties to contain China, while deterring the North Korean threat is more important for Seoul, and Tokyo wants to achieve both.”
Park said China’s lack of action in restraining North Korea’s nuclear weapons development had pushed Seoul and Tokyo closer to Washington.
“For China, it is uncomfortable to see stronger trilateral cooperation,” he said, but added that Beijing had not played its role to lower tensions on the Korean peninsula amid North Korea’s nuclear provocations.
“It seems clear that China’s lack of cooperation would reinforce the trilateral ties.”
However, South Korea’s reliance on China for trade could restrain Seoul’s engagement in three-way security cooperation out of fears it might lead to retaliation by Beijing, which previously imposed de facto economic sanctions on South Korea for deploying its US-made missile defence shield.
Aum said while South Korea might work more closely with Japan on issues such as climate change and health security, Seoul would refrain from upsetting China on matters Beijing considered central to its national interests.
“It is clear that South Korea does not want to take steps that appear to attack, criticise, or gang up against China, so certain types of bilateral and trilateral cooperation, particularly in the security and economic realm, will be limited.”
CONVERSATIONS (120)
Seong Hyeon Choi
+ myNEWS
Seong Hyeon joined the SCMP in 2022. He is from South Korea and graduated with a bachelor of journalism and master of international and public affairs from the University of Hong Kong. He worked as a research intern for Korea Chair at US foreign policy think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), and as a news trainee for NK news.
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Senior Advisor, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
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