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Quotes of the Day:
“There are only two kinds of men: the righteous who think they are sinners, and the sinners who think they are righteous.”
– Blaine Pascal
“Knowing is not enough, we must apply. Willing is not enough, we must do.”
– Goethe
“I will accept any rules that you feel necessary to your freedom. I am free, no matter what rules surround me. If I find them tolerable, I tolerate them; if I find them too obnoxious, I break them. I am free because I know that I alone and morally responsible for everything I do.”
–Robert A Heinlein – The Moon is a Harsh Mistress
1. Is Kim Jong-un Really Planning an Attack This Time?
2. N. Korea defends its stepped-up military measures at int'l forum
3. U.S. flies spy plane after N. Korea's test of underwater nuclear attack drone
4. N. Korea's exports of beauty products jump over 13 times in 2023: data
5. N. Korea calls for economic development in provincial regions
6. North Korea emerges as primary issue for GOP
7. S. Korea must guard against a 'new Cold War alliance'
8. South Korea needs multifaceted strategy to bring NK to dialogue
9. What occurred behind the veil in N.Korea 2020-2023…A disaster unfolding due to shifts in the Kim Jong-un regime’s policies…Part 3: Kim Jong-un’s anti-market policies
10. Survivor of Cheonan sinking assumes captaincy of reincarnated frigate
11. Kim Jong-un & Putin vow to build 'New World Order' in chilling warning to West
12. North Korea fires artillery shells, drops reunification goal with the South
1. Is Kim Jong-un Really Planning an Attack This Time?
I do not think so (specifically not at this time) - but like his father and grandfather he continues to make plans to attack someday in the future when he has achieved the necessary conditions for attack. (the main necessary condition is US troops off the peninsula).
Good to see Korea make Page A1 of the New York Times.
Excerpt:
North Korea “will continue to increase tensions until after the U.S. elections,” said Thomas Schäfer, a former German diplomat who served twice as ambassador to North Korea. But “at the height of tensions, it will finally be willing to re-engage with a Republican administration in the hope to get sanctions relief, some sort of acceptance of their nuclear program, and — as main objective — a reduction or even complete withdrawal of U.S. troops from the Korean Peninsula,” Mr. Schäfer said in a rebuttal to Mr. Carlin’s and Mr. Hecker’s analysis.
Is Kim Jong-un Really Planning an Attack This Time?
An intensification of nuclear threats from North Korea while the world is preoccupied with other wars has ignited an urgent debate over Mr. Kim’s motives.
In an image released this month by North Korea’s official news agency, Kim Jong-un is shown visiting a munitions plant.Credit...Korean Central News Agency, via Reuters
By Choe Sang-Hun
Reporting from Seoul
Jan. 21, 2024
阅读简体中文版閱讀繁體中文版
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North Korea fired hundreds of artillery shells in waters near South Korean border islands on Jan. 5. Last week, it said it no longer regarded the South as inhabited by “fellow countrymen” but as a “hostile state” it would subjugate through a nuclear war. On Friday, it said it had tested an underwater nuclear drone to help repel U.S. Navy fleets.
That new drumbeat of threats, while the United States and its allies have been preoccupied with the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, has set foreign officials and analysts wondering whether the North’s leader, Kim Jong-un, has moved beyond posturing and is planning to assert more military force.
For decades, a central part of the North Korean playbook has been to stage carefully measured and timed military provocations — some aimed at tightening internal discipline, others at demanding attention from its neighbors and the United States, or all of that at once.
But to several close watchers of North Korea, the latest round of signals from Mr. Kim feels different. Some are taking it as a clue that the North has become disillusioned with seeking diplomatic engagement with the West, and a few are raising the possibility that the country could be planning a sudden assault on South Korea.
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A New Year’s celebration in Pyongyang, North Korea’s capital, on Dec. 31.Credit...Kim Won Jin/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
Two veteran analysts of North Korea — the former State Department official Robert L. Carlin and the nuclear scientist Siegfried S. Hecker — sounded an alarm this past week in an article for the U.S.-based website 38 North, asserting that Mr. Kim was done with mere threats. “Kim Jong-un has made a strategic decision to go to war,” they wrote.
Analysts broadly agree that North Korea has been shifting its posture in recent years, compelled by an accumulation of both internal problems, including a moribund economy and food and oil shortages, and frustrations in its external diplomacy, like Mr. Kim’s failure to win an end to international sanctions through direct diplomacy with President Donald J. Trump. And most agree that the North’s recent closeness with Russia, including supplying artillery shells and missiles for use in Russia’s war in Ukraine, will be a game-changer in some way.
But there is still stark disagreement over where Mr. Kim’s new tack might be leading.
Many say that Mr. Kim’s ultimate goal remains not a war with South Korea, a treaty ally of the United States, but Washington’s acceptance of his country as a nuclear power by prompting arms-reduction talks.
“The North Koreans won’t start a war unless they decide to become suicidal; they know too well that they cannot win the war,” said Park Won-gon, a North Korea expert at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. “But they would love their enemies to believe that they could, because that could lead to engagement and possible concessions, like the easing of sanctions.”
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Posters in Pyongyang remind citizens of North Korea’s need to remain on a war footing.Credit...Cha Song Ho/Associated Press
Analysts in China, North Korea’s most vital ally, were also deeply skeptical that Mr. Kim would go to war unless the North were attacked. Prof. Shi Yinhong, at Renmin University in Beijing, asserted that the North’s leadership, not being irrational, ultimately acted out of self-preservation — and that starting a war would work against that goal.
Others noted that the North could assert itself militarily, including through smaller conventional strikes and bolder weapons testing, without necessarily triggering a deadly response.
“There are many rungs of the escalation ladder that North Korea can climb short of all-out war,” said Victor Cha, a Korea expert at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Kim is not that confident in his capabilities to deter U.S. reaction if he were to do something rash.”
If Mr. Kim wants to climb that ladder, recent history suggests that this might be the time.
North Korea has liked to unsettle its enemies at their most sensitive political moments, and both the United States and South Korea are holding elections this year. The North launched a long-range rocket in late 2012, between the United States and South Korean presidential elections. It conducted a nuclear test shortly before the inauguration of a South Korean leader in 2013. In 2016, it conducted another nuclear test two months before the American presidential election.
North Korea could also attempt provocations in the coming weeks to try to help liberals who favor inter-Korean negotiations win parliamentary elections in South Korea in April, said the analyst Ko Jae-hong at the Seoul-based Institute for National Security Strategy. Through provocations, North Korea hopes to spread fears among South Korean voters that increasing pressure on the North, as the current administration of President Yoon Suk Yeol has tried to do, might “lead to a nuclear war,” he said.
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South Korean military exercises this month near the border with North Korea.Credit...Ahn Young-Joon/Associated Press
North Korea “will continue to increase tensions until after the U.S. elections,” said Thomas Schäfer, a former German diplomat who served twice as ambassador to North Korea. But “at the height of tensions, it will finally be willing to re-engage with a Republican administration in the hope to get sanctions relief, some sort of acceptance of their nuclear program, and — as main objective — a reduction or even complete withdrawal of U.S. troops from the Korean Peninsula,” Mr. Schäfer said in a rebuttal to Mr. Carlin’s and Mr. Hecker’s analysis.
Since Mr. Kim came to power in 2011, he has committed to building North Korea’s nuclear capability, using it both as a deterrent and as a negotiating tool to try to win concessions from Washington, like the removal of United Nations sanctions, to achieve economic growth.
He tried it when he met Mr. Trump in 2018 and again in 2019. It failed spectacularly, and Mr. Kim returned home empty-handed and in humiliation.
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President Donald J. Trump and Kim Jung-un in 2019 in the Demilitarized Zone. In talks that year, the two failed to reach a deal on North Korea’s abandoning its nuclear ambitions in return for concessions.Credit...Erin Schaff/The New York Times
He then vowed to find a “new way” for his country.
Since then, the North has rejected repeated calls from Washington for talks. It has also rejected South Korea as a dialogue partner, indicating from 2022 that it would use nuclear weapons against South Korea in a war and abandoning its long-held insistence that the weapons would keep the Korean Peninsula peaceful as a deterrent. It has tested more diverse, and harder-to-intercept, means of delivering its nuclear warheads.
There is doubt that the North has yet built a reliable intercontinental ballistic missile that could target the United States. But two of the North’s main enemies, South Korea and Japan, are much closer.
On the diplomatic front, Mr. Kim has taken pains to signal that he no longer views the United States as a critical negotiating partner, instead envisioning a “neo-Cold War” in which the United States is in retreat globally. He has aggressively improved military ties with Russia, and in return has most likely secured Russian promises of food aid and technological help for his weapons programs, officials say.
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South Korean troops patrol the entrance to a beach on an island near the sea boundary with North Korea.Credit...Jung Yeon-Je/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
“I worry that his confidence might lead him to misjudge with a small act, regardless of his intention, escalating to war amid a tense ‘power-for-power’ confrontation with the United States and its allies,” said Koh Yu-hwan, a former head of the Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul.
Despite its own increasingly aggressive military posture in recent years, China may prove to be a damper on any North Korean military adventurism.
China and North Korea are bound by a treaty signed in 1961 that requires each country to provide military assistance if the other is attacked. But China has little incentive to be drawn into a war in Korea right now.
“A war on the Korean Peninsula would be disastrous for Beijing. An entire half-century of peace in East Asia, a period of unprecedented growth for the P.R.C., would come to a crashing halt,” said John Delury, a professor of Chinese studies at Yonsei University in Seoul, referring to the People’s Republic of China.
The United States has long leaned on Beijing to rein in North Korea. By drawing close to Moscow, Mr. Kim has been putting his own pressure on China’s leader, Xi Jinping.
“It is notable that Kim made his first post-pandemic trip to the Russian Far East, skipping China, and he just sent his foreign minister to Moscow, not Beijing,” Mr. Delury said. By raising tensions, Mr. Kim “can see what Xi is willing to do to placate him,” he added.
David Pierson and Olivia Wang contributed reporting from Hong Kong, and Edward Wong from Washington.
New Signals from North Korea
North Korea Says It Is No Longer Interested in Reunifying With the South
Jan. 16, 2024
Kim Jong-un’s Daughter Is His Likely Successor, South Korea Says
Jan. 4, 2024
North Korea Finds New Leverage in the Ukraine War
Sept. 5, 2023
North Korea Sees New Opportunities in ‘Neo-Cold War’
Nov. 13, 2022
Choe Sang-Hun is the lead reporter for The Times in Seoul, covering South and North Korea. More about Choe Sang-Hun
A version of this article appears in print on Jan. 22, 2024, Section A, Page 1 of the New York edition with the headline: Nuclear Threats Spur Debate on Kim’s Motives. Order Reprints | Today’s Paper | Subscribe
2. N. Korea defends its stepped-up military measures at int'l forum
Like his grandfather tried, I think Kim Jong Un thinks he can be a leader in the non aligned movement.
(LEAD) N. Korea defends its stepped-up military measures at int'l forum | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · January 22, 2024
(ATTN: UPDATES with more details throughout; ADDS photo)
SEOUL, Jan. 22 (Yonhap) -- North Korea has defended its measures to bolster military capabilities as a just exercise of the sovereign right against Washington-led military confrontations at the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) summit in Uganda, state media reported Monday.
North Korea claimed it has recently conducted a test of an underwater nuclear attack drone, named the Haeil-5-23, in the East Sea in response to the latest joint naval drills involving South Korea, the United States and Japan. The drills came after North Korea's launch of a solid-fuel hypersonic missile on Jan. 14.
North Korea's chief delegate, Kim Son-kyong, said his country has been bolstering defense capabilities in response to "dangerous military moves" by the U.S. and its allies, and the move is the just exercise of the country's sovereign right.
"The phenomenon that a sovereign country's rights to independence, life and development are being seriously threatened is evidently focused on the Korean Peninsula," Kim claimed at the NAM summit held between Friday and Saturday in Kampala, according to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
Kim Son-kyong (L), North Korea's vice foreign minister for international organizations, departs Pyongyang to attend the Non-Aligned Movement summit in Uganda, in this undated photo captured from the website of the North's official Korean Central News Agency. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
The North's vice foreign minister for international organizations said North Korea's struggle to defend its sovereign right fully matches the ideology of the NAM, which rejects any forms of infringement on a country's sovereign right and an intervention in internal affairs, according to the KCNA.
The NAM is a forum of 120 countries not aligned with any major power bloc. North Korea's late founder Kim Il-sung actively took part in the nonaligned movement against imperialism in the late 20th century.
At a year-end party meeting, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un vowed to strengthen solidarity with "independent, anti-imperialist" countries standing against the U.S.
Seoul's unification ministry condemned North Korea's nuclear and missile development as an act that violates multiple United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions.
On the sidelines of the NAM summit, the North's vice foreign minister held talks with Sergei Aleinik, Belarus' foreign minister, to discuss ways to deepen bilateral cooperation, according to the European nation's foreign ministry.
Belarus has been supportive of Russia over its war with Ukraine. North Korea is suspected of having supplied arms to Russia for the war while seeking technological assistance from Moscow for Pyongyang's weapons programs.
Details of the North Korea-Belarus talks are not available, but observers said they may have discussed North Korea's possible dispatch of its workers to Belarus or potential three-way cooperation also involving Russia.
South Korea's ministry in charge of inter-Korean affairs emphasized that the international community is taking close tabs on deepening military cooperation between North Korea and Russia.
"I'd like to say once again that Russia, in particular, has a bigger responsibility as a permanent member of the UNSC (for enforcing U.N. resolutions against the North)," Koo Byoung-sam, ministry spokesperson, told a press briefing.
This file image, captured from footage of North Korea's state-run Korean Central Television on Sept. 14, 2023, shows the North's leader Kim Jong-un (L) and Russian President Vladimir Putin holding a summit meeting at the Vostochny space center in Russia's Far East the previous day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
sooyeon@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · January 22, 2024
3. U.S. flies spy plane after N. Korea's test of underwater nuclear attack drone
U.S. flies spy plane after N. Korea's test of underwater nuclear attack drone | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Eun-jung · January 22, 2024
SEOUL, Jan. 22 (Yonhap) -- A U.S. surveillance aircraft flew over South Korea on Monday, aviation trackers showed, on an apparent mission to monitor North Korea following its claimed test of an underwater nuclear attack drone.
The U.S. Air Force's RC-135W Rivet Joint was spotted in skies above the city of Incheon, just west of Seoul, and the adjacent Gyeonggi Province, Gangwon Province as well as the eastern and western coasts, according to multiple flight trackers.
The RC-135V was dispatched three days after North Korea claimed it tested an underwater nuclear attack drone, Haeil-5-23, in the East Sea in response to the latest joint naval drills involving South Korea, the U.S. and Japan last week.
The U.S. deployment of the advanced spy aircraft is part of its regular intelligence-gathering operations, but its exposing extensive flight routes may be aimed at sending a message of pressure to the North, according to sources.
It is the third known flight this year following two previous ones on Jan. 4 and 17, whose flights were spotted only in inland airspace.
South Korea and the U.S. have stepped up monitoring to detect possible signs of Pyongyang's provocations as North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has called for stronger war readiness against "unprecedented" acts of U.S.-led confrontations.
The U.S. Air Force's RC-135V reconnaissance aircraft is seen in this file photo. (Yonhap)
ejkim@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Eun-jung · January 22, 2024
4. N. Korea's exports of beauty products jump over 13 times in 2023: data
Is the north trying to capitalize on the fact that South Korean beauty products are among the best in the world? Are they exploiting the idea that some consumers around the world do not know the difference between the "good Korea" and the "bad Korea" as a US political leader once could not figure out.
N. Korea's exports of beauty products jump over 13 times in 2023: data | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · January 22, 2024
SEOUL, Jan. 22 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's exports of beauty products to China, such as wigs and false eyelashes, soared more than 13 times last year from the previous year amid the North's border opening, Chinese customs data showed Monday.
The value of the North's exports of beauty-related goods reached US$167 million last year, up 13.4 times from the previous year, according to data from China's General Administration of Customs.
The outbound shipment of such goods accounted for 57.1 percent of North Korea's total yearly exports of $292 million, the data showed.
North Korea appears to have expanded exports of beauty supplies, which are not subject to U.N. sanctions, in a bid to earn much-wanted hard currency amid economic difficulties, experts said.
The North has been under stringent U.N. sanctions that ban the country's exports of coal and other mineral resources to prevent the country from financing its nuclear and missile programs.
The value of trade volume between North Korea and China amounted to $2.3 billion last year, up 137 percent from the previous year, the data showed. The bilateral trade recovered to 82.3 percent of pre-pandemic 2019 levels.
North Korea partially opened its border with China last year following years of COVID-19 border closure, increasing the operations of freight trains and transport by land.
This file photo, taken Sept. 27, 2022, shows a cargo train crossing a railway bridge linking North Korea and China over the Amnok River. (Yonhap)
sooyeon@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · January 22, 2024
5. N. Korea calls for economic development in provincial regions
Is the an indication that the regime recognizes how difficult the conditions are in the provinces outside of Pyongyang? Is Kim worried about potential instability outside of Pyongyang?
N. Korea calls for economic development in provincial regions | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · January 22, 2024
SEOUL, Jan. 22 (Yonhap) -- North Korea called Monday for developing the country's provincial regions to improve the livelihood of people living outside the capital area.
The North's main newspaper, Rodong Sinmun, carried an article on its front page stressing that developing the economy in provincial regions is an "important task" that can no longer be postponed or neglected.
The article comes a week after North Korean leader Kim Jong-un ordered the construction of modern factories in 20 regional counties every year to improve the livelihood of people over the next decade.
The newspaper touted Kimhwa County in the North's Kangwon Province as an exemplary model of such development, noting that products manufactured in factories in the province have received favorable reviews.
Following severe damage from heavy rains in August 2020, the county has frequently been highlighted in state media reports, including the coverage of Kim's visit to the county in October the same year.
North Korea has been emphasizing the importance of economic development and strengthening the role of the Cabinet as the "economic control tower" as the country is grappling with severe food shortages and economic hardships.
The North has been under tightened U.N. sanctions, which call for, among other things, a ban on the country's exports of coal and other mineral resources to cut off North Korea's access to hard currency.
This photo, carried by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency, shows modernized factories built in Kimhwa County in Kangwon Province. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
mlee@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · January 22, 2024
6. North Korea emerges as primary issue for GOP
Foreign policy rarely influences elections. One campaign ad does not eman Korea will be an election issue. And let's be careful not to politicize human rights.
North Korea emerges as primary issue for GOP
The Korea Times · by 2024-01-22 10:23 | World · January 22, 2024
Republican presidential hopeful and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley speaks at a campaign event in Exeter, N.H., Sunday (local time). Washington’s foreign policy on North Korea is emerging as one of key GOP primary issues as Haley tries to draw a contrast between her tough stance on the regime and that of her rival in the presidential race, Donald Trump. AFP-Yonhap
US policy on Kim regime will likely stay course if Haley wins White House: experts
By Jung Min-ho
Washington’s foreign policy on North Korea is emerging as one of the key issues of the GOP primary as Nikki Haley tries to draw a contrast between her tough stance on the regime and that of her rival in the presidential race, Donald Trump.
Heading into a significant test as she takes on the former president in Tuesday’s (local time) New Hampshire primary, Haley’s campaign team will start airing a three-minute ad featuring the mother of Otto Warmbier, a college student who died in 2017 after being imprisoned by North Korea.
“He was taken hostage, tortured and murdered by the government of North Korea,” Cynthia Warmbier, who spoke at Haley’s campaign event last year, is shown telling the crowd there.
“When we were begging the Obama administration for help, they told us to be quiet and be patient. Nikki told us the opposite. She told me it’s OK to be afraid, like I am now, but I had to push through the fear.”
His mother describes Haley, who was serving as the country’s U.N. ambassador at that time, as a leader with strength and compassion.
Ron DeSantis ends 2024 campaign, endorses Trump over Haley as New Hampshire vote looms
The ad is part of her campaign effort to highlight her expertise in international relations and to portray Trump as a candidate who would undermine the U.S. status on the world stage ― one who often boasts about his cordial relationship with North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un.
Appearing on “Face the Nation” on CBS, Nikki said she would continue to “call North Korea out” as president, adding “You can’t have someone who’s trying to buddy up with dictators that want to kill us.”
Former U.S. President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump holds a rally in advance of the New Hampshire presidential primary election in Rochester, N.H., Sunday (local time). Reuters-Yonhap
This comes as concerns are growing in South Korea over the possible second term of Trump, who had repeatedly demanded the U.S. ally pay more for American troops stationed there and ordered the scale-down of “tremendously expensive” joint drills against North Korea.
Since Trump left the office in January 2021, the government under Joe Biden has reinforced its security alliance with South Korea and Japan, while maintaining a firm stance against the regime. A Haley presidency ― a slim chance, according to polls ― would mean a continuation of such foreign policies on the Korean Peninsula, experts told The Korea Times on Monday.
“Compared to Trump, Haley’s foreign policy is much more predictable. Given what she did and said while serving as the U.N. ambassador, she is expected to bring back the traditional Republican foreign policies and distance herself from the isolationists within the party,” said Ma Sang-yoon, a professor of international relations at the Catholic University of Korea.
While serving her term, Haley had been tough on the North. When tensions were rising over the development of its weapons program in early 2017, she warned of a U.S. military action against the regime’s repeated ballistic missile tests.
But for most American voters, foreign policy is not among the top issues they care about. So her electoral success depends on whether she could create a convincing message that her expertise in that field is vital to protect and promote their national interests, said Kim Sung-soo, a professor of international relations at Hanyang University.
Polls suggest that Trump, who scored a record-setting win in the Iowa caucuses, is projected to win the GOP nomination for president by a large margin. Haley is hoping her performance in New Hampshire will gather momentum as the contenders head to their next destination, South Carolina, where she served as governor from 2011 to 2017.
The Korea Times · by 2024-01-22 10:23 | World · January 22, 2024
7. S. Korea must guard against a 'new Cold War alliance'
S. Korea must guard against a 'new Cold War alliance'
donga.com
Posted January. 22, 2024 07:53,
Updated January. 22, 2024 07:53
S. Korea must guard against a 'new Cold War alliance'. January. 22, 2024 07:53. .
North Korean media reported Friday that Russian President Vladimir Putin showed "intention to visit as soon as possible" in response to North Korea's invitation. The statement was made following the visit of North Korean Foreign Minister Choi Son Hee to Russia from Jan. 14 to Thursday. North Korea conveyed its eagerness to “welcome him with utmost sincerity.” Furthermore, it highlighted that through Minister Choi's visit to Russia, the two nations have strengthened their "strategic and tactical cooperation" and “successfully resolved issues related to establishing, expanding, and developing the bilateral relationship on a new legal basis, achieving a satisfactory agreement between the two countries.”
Many speculate that Putin's visit to North Korea would be after the presidential election in March, but it might be expedited. The acceleration of this visit is likely to be influenced by the increasing demand for North Korean weapons amidst the Ukrainian war. Putin's visit, if it occurs, would mark the first time in 24 years since 2000 and follows Chairman Kim Jong Un's visit to the Russian Far East in September of the previous year. The significance of leaders' diplomatic interactions suggests that Putin's potential visit to North Korea could serve as a pivotal moment for the two countries to strengthen ties not just in terms of arms deals, involving the exchange of North Korea's artillery shells and missiles for Russia's cutting-edge technology, but also in military and security cooperation. The Kremlin previously mentioned the "development of relations, including in sensitive areas," about the meeting between Choi and Putin, further underscoring the potential for deepening ties between North Korea and Russia.
North Korea's mention of establishing a 'new legal basis' in its relations with Russia is of particular significance. After nearly a decade of strained ties following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, North Korea and Russia only restored relations in 2000. During that period, a newly formed treaty of amity replaced the 1961 Treaty of Friendship, which had mandated 'automatic military intervention' in emergencies. The revised treaty introduced a commitment to 'consultation in case of crisis,' redefining the existing military alliance as an economic cooperation partnership. In the present context, North Korea and Russia are likely poised to enhance mutual security and military cooperation through either treaty revision or a new agreement. If such developments occur, North Korea could align itself with Russia and China as de facto military allies.
North Korea is rapidly normalizing economic cooperation with China. According to the announcement by the General Administration of Customs of China, the trade volume between North Korea and China last year reached $2.3 billion, a 2.4-fold increase from the previous year, rebounding to 82% of the 2019 pre-COVID-19 level. The close ties between the two nations are expected to intensify further, particularly as they commemorate the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations as the 'Year of Friendship' this year. Kim Jong Un, backed by China and Russia, has already issued threats of a 'great cataclysm to pacify the Republic of Korea.' The U.S. is expressing serious concerns about the escalating threat from North Korea due to what is described as 'unprecedented North Korea-Russia military cooperation.' We must remain vigilant and prepare for the potential turbulence of a new Cold War that may impact Northeast Asia this year.
한국어
donga.com
8. South Korea needs multifaceted strategy to bring NK to dialogue
Be nice until it is time to not be nice (Yes I am stuck on that quote).
Excerpts:
Some analysts predict that the escalating inter-Korean conflict will expand into a "new cold war" in the East Asian region, with South Korea, the U.S. and Japan on one side and North Korea, China and Russia on the other.
But Park gave a different assessment.
"I do not expect a new cold war to intensify," he said. "The ongoing rivalry is different in nature from the past Cold War between the Soviet Union and the U.S."
While the previous U.S.-Soviet relationship was characterized by bipolar division along ideological lines and extreme confrontation between the two blocs, the current U.S.-China rivalry is not about eliminating each other.
Instead, the two superpowers share a common political necessity to manage bilateral and external relations in a stable manner, Park said.
He also explained that although U.S.-China, South Korea-China and China-Japan relations occasionally experience confrontational situations, their economies remain interconnected.
Touching on the trilateral relations between the three Asian neighbors — Seoul, Beijing and Tokyo — the former unification minister was skeptical about a three-way summit being held in the first half of this year.
"In addition to the delicate bilateral relations among them, the political timelines of the three countries are also factors in delaying the summit," he said.
South Korea's general elections are set to take place in April, while China’s two largest political gatherings — the National People's Congress and the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference — are scheduled for March, Park said, making it difficult for Beijing to take swift action before these two events.
[INTERVIEW] South Korea needs multifaceted strategy to bring NK to dialogue
The Korea Times · January 22, 2024
Kyungnam University President Park Jae Kyu speaks during an interview with The Korea Times at his office in Seoul, Wednesday. Korea Times photo by Lee Hyo-jin
'We should not antagonize or exclude any one of North Korea, China or Russia,' says former unification minister
By Lee Hyo-jin
Since the beginning of this year, tensions on the Korean Peninsula have been escalating to their highest level in years, with South and North Korea exchanging threats and warnings instead of New Year pleasantries.
The Kim Jong-un regime entered 2024 with renewed military threats and a missile launch, declaring its intention to designate South Korea as the "primary foe" in its Constitution.
In response, President Yoon Suk Yeol warned that North Korea would face "multiple times stronger retaliation" in the event of provocations. He reaffirmed his commitment to achieve "peace through strength" based on the robust South Korea-U.S. alliance and extended deterrence.
However, Park Jae Kyu, a former South Korean unification minister and current president of Kyungnam University, advised that Seoul should pursue a "multifaceted strategy" toward its nuclear-armed neighbor, instead of its current one-sided policy, which focuses on deterrence.
"While North Korea's reckless pursuit of nuclear and missile enhancement and its refusal to engage in dialogue have greatly limited Yoon's flexibility on North Korea, a one-sided policy of sanctions and pressure against the North may give Pyongyang a justification for upgrading its nuclear arsenal," Park said during an interview with The Korea Times, Wednesday.
"Even if we need to improve deterrence based on the foundation of (South Korea-U.S.-Japan) trilateral cooperation, South Korea may still need to simultaneously promote a multifaceted strategy of bringing North Korea to the table for dialogue by building cooperative relations with China and Russia."
He added: "To stabilize the situation on the Korean Peninsula in the context of U.S.-China strategic competition, we should not antagonize or exclude any one of North Korea, China or Russia."
Park is a leading expert on North Korea who played a critical role in organizing the first-ever inter-Korean summit in 2000 between then-President Kim Dae-jung and his North Korean counterpart Kim Jong-il.
The former minister anticipates 2024 to be a "very difficult year" for inter-Korean relations, saying that a lack of a mechanism to control border conflicts, coupled with the overall volatility in Northeast Asia, will make crisis management difficult.
In particular, the nullification of the inter-Korean military pact of Sept. 19, 2018, which was designed to prevent military conflicts in the border area by creating buffer zones, has heightened the risks of an "accidental situation" caused by mutual misunderstandings.
"Considering that North Korea blew up the joint inter-Korean liaison office in 2020 under the pretext of South Korea’s spreading anti-North Korean leaflets in the North, there is a possibility of a military conflict if leafleting and loudspeaker broadcasting in the frontline regions are resumed," Park said.
The reclusive regime is anticipated to continue its provocations in protest of South Korea-U.S. joint military drills, which the Yoon administration seeks to hold more frequently this year. And the North's belligerent actions may reach a peak in the lead-up to the U.S. presidential election that is scheduled for November.
North Korea launches a solid-fuel intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) carrying a hypersonic warhead, Jan. 14, in this photo released by the North's official Korean Central News Agency a day later. Yonhap
"Rather than negotiating with the Joe Biden administration, North Korea will maintain a hardline policy while waiting for the results of the election, with an intention to negotiate with the next U.S. administration," Park said.
In this context, he did not dismiss the possibility of Pyongyang launching an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at a normal angle, or even conducting its seventh nuclear test, to highlight the perceived failures of the Biden administration's North Korea strategy.
The return of former President Donald Trump to the White House, if realized, may pose challenges to Yoon's foreign policy of strengthening trilateral cooperation with Washington and Tokyo to counter Pyongyang's nuclear threats, Park viewed.
"The overarching goal of current U.S. foreign policy is to keep China in check ... If Trump is elected, one could expect him to assess the trilateral cooperation in terms of how much it can contribute to attaining that goal," he said.
Given Trump’s skepticism about alliances and his tendency to avoid multilateral cooperation, the trilateral ties could weaken under his presidency.
Another noteworthy development in the Northeast Asian region is the burgeoning ties between Pyongyang and Moscow.
In a recent display of friendly relations, North Korea's top diplomat Choe Sun-hui visited Russia last week and held a meeting with President Vladimir Putin. While the details of their discussions were not disclosed by either nation, the meeting sparked more worries from South Korea and the Western nations about deepening military cooperation between North Korea and Russia.
However, the former unification minister said their military partnership has its limits.
"Russia will not be able to provide advanced military technologies to North Korea, because Moscow cannot completely disregard its relations with the global community and international norms. Rather, it is likely that Moscow and Pyongyang will strengthen their ties by focusing on some form of economic cooperation," Park said.
Russian President Vladimir Putin meets North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui in Moscow, Tuesday (local time). Reuters-Yonhap
China's position could be another crucial factor influencing the extent of Pyongyang-Moscow ties.
"Beijing is unlikely to welcome the strengthening of military ties between Russia and North Korea. It will find it difficult to accept trilateral solidarity with these two countries," he said.
"China does not view Russia and North Korea as its equals, and does not want to see the Korean Peninsula become unstable to the extent that such instability undermines China’s core interests."
Some analysts predict that the escalating inter-Korean conflict will expand into a "new cold war" in the East Asian region, with South Korea, the U.S. and Japan on one side and North Korea, China and Russia on the other.
But Park gave a different assessment.
"I do not expect a new cold war to intensify," he said. "The ongoing rivalry is different in nature from the past Cold War between the Soviet Union and the U.S."
While the previous U.S.-Soviet relationship was characterized by bipolar division along ideological lines and extreme confrontation between the two blocs, the current U.S.-China rivalry is not about eliminating each other.
Instead, the two superpowers share a common political necessity to manage bilateral and external relations in a stable manner, Park said.
He also explained that although U.S.-China, South Korea-China and China-Japan relations occasionally experience confrontational situations, their economies remain interconnected.
Touching on the trilateral relations between the three Asian neighbors — Seoul, Beijing and Tokyo — the former unification minister was skeptical about a three-way summit being held in the first half of this year.
"In addition to the delicate bilateral relations among them, the political timelines of the three countries are also factors in delaying the summit," he said.
South Korea's general elections are set to take place in April, while China’s two largest political gatherings — the National People's Congress and the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference — are scheduled for March, Park said, making it difficult for Beijing to take swift action before these two events.
The Korea Times · January 22, 2024
9. What occurred behind the veil in N.Korea 2020-2023…A disaster unfolding due to shifts in the Kim Jong-un regime’s policies…Part 3: Kim Jong-un’s anti-market policies
Markets are a threat to Kim Jong Un but key to resilience and survival of the Korean people in the north.
What occurred behind the veil in N.Korea 2020-2023…A disaster unfolding due to shifts in the Kim Jong-un regime’s policies…Part 3: Kim Jong-un’s anti-market policies ISHIMARU Jiro
asiapress.org
A checkpoint under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of State Security (secret police), which are commonly known as No. 10 Checkpoints. The checkpoints examine ID cards, passes, and cell phones. Judging by the clothes of the people being checked, they could be white-collar workers, but "they could be cadres or people from trading companies from Pyongyang and Hyesan," a North Korean defector who saw the photo told ASIAPRESS. Photograph taken from the Chinese side of the border across from Sokju County, North Pyongan Province, in late September 2023. (ASIAPRESS)
What occurred behind the veil in N.Korea 2020-2023…A disaster unfolding due to shifts in the Kim Jong-un regime’s policies…Part 1: A blind spot with no outside witnesses ISHIMARU Jiro
◆ The sudden emergence of the market economy
By the late 1990s, North Korea's socialist economy had largely collapsed, and markets, which had begun to spread organically, had taken over the distribution of all consumer goods, including food. The market economy continued to expand and spread despite several attempts by the regime to repressed it.
Although illegal, markets for housing, labor, and medical services emerged and became fully integrated into North Korean society. Private employment also spread, and small-scale businesses were tolerated. The majority of the general population did not receive food rations or salaries, but were able to buy food and other necessary goods in the markets with the cash they earned from their businesses and illegal labor.
Kim Jong-un's regime, which began in 2012, expanded trade with China while increasing the discretion of trading firms and businesses domestically, allowing for some degree of private economic activity. The period 2014-17 also saw an increase in the income of the common people.
(FILE PHOTO) The man in the armband is a market manager who supervises the merchants. Photo taken at Hyesan Market in August 2013. (ASIAPRESS)
◆ Major crackdowns began with the start of the COVID pandemic
At the onset of the pandemic, the Kim Jong-un regime prioritized epidemic prevention and sealed the country's borders to keep people and goods out. Imports of Chinese goods were halted, and the markets faced a brick wall.
The regime also severely restricted the movement of people and goods within the country, making it difficult to travel between counties and cities. At the same time, the regime intensified the "struggle against non-socialist and anti-socialist phenomena" that began before the pandemic, cracking down on private economic activities.
It became impossible to hire people to work in small-scale businesses, such as selling food products such as bread and rice cakes, sewing clothing, and transporting goods. Adult males were forced to report to their assigned workplaces, making it difficult for them to engage in commerce or menial labor. Those who left their jobs to pursue other livelihoods were punished as "job deserters" and the "unemployed.”
While all of this was happening, North Korea’s economy became paralyzed. In the fall of 2020, it became common to see processions of city dwellers going to the countryside to pick up leftovers from harvested crops. People begging for food at farm houses appeared everywhere.
In the summer of 2021, the number of people dying of malnutrition and disease began to increase, even in the vicinity of where our reporting partners live. Members of vulnerable groups such as families made up of mothers and children, the elderly, the sick, and the disabled began to collapse in exhaustion and hunger. Urban residents who had been deprived of the opportunity to earn cash income quickly became destitute.
◆ A shift to a state-run monopoly on food sales
Soon after the start of the pandemic, the Kim regime began to intervene in the sale of food in markets. It set price ceilings, forcing vendors to stick to them, and monitored stalls and kiosks. Next, it limited the amount of food sold in markets and cracked down on the flow of grain from rural areas to markets.
The regime passed measures to ensure that food would pass through “state-run grain shops,” a network of which the regime had been trying to build up since 2019. The shops monopolized the sale and distribution of staple foods, white rice and corn, and I thought it was a temporary measure to manage food during the coronavirus pandemic. However, it turned out that the real reason for this was something else.
(FILE PHOTO) A state-run grain shop photographed in November 2012. Rice bags are not visible and the store is closed. Photo taken in November 2012 in Hyesan City, Yanggang Province (ASIAPRESS)
◆ Ruling over people’s calories
Based on information from our reporting partners, since 2021, state-run grain shops have shifted from a sell-when-stock-is-available system to a twice-monthly sales system, with only 5 kilograms handed out to each person in a single household. As of December 2022, market prices were typically 6,000 won for white rice and 3,000 won for corn, whereas the state-run shops sold white rice for 4,400 won and corn for 2,400 won. (All prices are 1 kilogram; 1,000 North Korean won is about 155 South Korean won.)
Ordinary people welcomed the low prices at the shops, but the problem was that the shops didn’t provide enough stock to meet demand. Workers who showed up for work were given a few kilograms a month, but those who kept missing work were excluded from the ration system.
In January 2023, white rice and corn were finally banned from the markets. I believe that what the Kim Jong-un regime was aiming for was to take control of food distribution away from the market and shift to a “state-run monopoly on food.”
The goal of this policy is to reinstate the regime’s control over people’s calories. It's like saying, "I'll feed you, but you have to listen to me," and using food as a tool of control. How will the battle between the regime and the market end? (To be continued in the next installment)
A map of North Korea (ASIAPRESS)
What occurred behind the veil in N.Korea 2020-2023…A disaster unfolding due to shifts in the Kim Jong-un regime’s policies…Part 1: A blind spot with no outside witnesses ISHIMARU Jiro
What occurred behind the veil in N.Korea 2020-2023…A disaster unfolding due to shifts in the Kim Jong-un regime’s policies…Part 2: The impact of the border closure…escape is now almost impossible ISHIMARU Jiro
What occurred behind the veil in N.Korea 2020-2023…A disaster unfolding due to shifts in the Kim Jong-un regime’s policies…Part 3: Kim Jong-un’s anti-market policies ISHIMARU Jiro
asiapress.org
10. Survivor of Cheonan sinking assumes captaincy of reincarnated frigate
What a great honor. Let us never forget the 46 sailors.
Monday
January 22, 2024
dictionary + A - A
Published: 22 Jan. 2024, 18:53
Survivor of Cheonan sinking assumes captaincy of reincarnated frigate
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2024-01-22/national/defense/Survivor-of-Cheonan-sinking-assumes-captaincy-of-reincarnated-frigate/1964138
Commander Park Yeon-soo, salutes in front of the frigate ROKS Cheonan on Monday at the South Korean Navy's 2nd Fleet in Pyeongtaek, Gyeonggi. Park was inaugurated as the new captain of the ROKS Cheonan. [REPUBLIC OF KOREA NAVY / YONHAP]
A lieutenant who survived the sinking of the corvette ROKS Cheonan, Commander Park Yeon-soo, has become captain of the newly reincarnated frigate that bears its sunken predecessor's name, the South Korean Navy said Monday.
Park’s return to the ROKS Cheonan comes 14 years after the sinking of the original corvette in a North Korean torpedo attack in 2010.
“The command of the ROKS Cheonan is a sacred calling passed down by fellow sailors” who died at the attack in 2010, Park said Monday, a day of his inauguration.
Related Article
Park also paid respects to those who sacrificed themselves to safeguard the nation — 46 fallen sailors from the old Cheonan, warrant officer Han Joo-ho who died during the rescue mission for the Cheonan, and those who lost their lives in the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island and naval skirmishes in the Yellow Sea.
The inauguration was held at the headquarters of the Navy’s 2nd Fleet, which patrols the Yellow Sea.
He pledged to those who have fallen that if the enemy launches a provocation, he would “turn where the enemy stands into a grave and win victory without losing any soldiers from our side,” Park said during his inauguration speech.
Before the inaugural ceremony, he paid tribute at the memorial for the fallen sailors from the old ROKS Cheonan. He said doing so helped clear his mind.
The newly inaugurated captain of the ROKS Cheonan, Park Yeon-soo, pays tribute to the 46 sailors who fell in the 2010 sinking of his ship's namesake in front of the memorial on Baengnyeong Island on Monday, before his inaugural ceremony. [REPUBLIC OF KOREA NAVY / YONHAP]
“I pledged that if the enemy launches another provocation, I would retaliate hundreds and thousand times stronger,” he told the JoongAng Ilbo, an affiliate of the Korea JoongAng Daily.
He also said he feels a heavy responsibility in keeping the front line safe and secure as the warship’s captain.
“The Cheonan is stationed at the maritime frontier — near the Northern Limit Line (NLL) — where the country directly confronts North Korea. Thus, hostilities can break out anytime,” Park said.
“The new frigate has improved anti-submarine operation capabilities and can carry various missiles capable of striking the enemy’s on-ground facilities,” Park said. He added that the sailors and ship will be at “full readiness.”
“Any attacks and provocations [from the enemy] will result in a situation where we will bury them underwater by retaliating hundreds and thousand times stronger.”
Park noted the situational similarities between the 2010 attack and the recent military tensions between the South and North. In early January, the North fired more than hundreds of shells toward the South. It also carried out underwater nuclear weapon system tests last year.
Park said the word “Cheonan” will follow his life forever.
“I once thought about leaving the Navy. However, I decided to continue my duty to protect the country as a mission which my fellow sailors passed on to me.”
He also added that he would have regretted it for the rest of his life if he had served on a warship other than the Cheonan. “I have longed to become the captain of the new Cheonan if given the chance.”
“I shall command and make the ROKS Cheonan frigate a warship that always wins,” Park added.
“I cannot stop thinking of the fallen soldiers, and the moment [of the attack] remains vivid,” Park said. “The sailors who survive will keep them in their hearts and bury the enemies in the cold ocean waters.”
“The new ROKS Cheonan will sail to the battlefield with the souls of fallen sailors, so please keep an eye on the Cheonan’s [future] victory.”
A former and now retired captain of the ROKS Cheonan, Choi Won-il, encouraged Park, saying he would always support him. Choi also thanked Park for taking the captainship of the new frigate.
Park was commissioned by the Navy in 2006. He served on the Chamsuri-276 patrol boat, the ROKS Cheonan and at Jinhae Naval Base in South Gyeongsang.
The new ROKS Cheonan began operations with the 2nd Fleet last December after undergoing seven months of testing.
BY LEE YU-JEONG, LEE SOO-JUNG [lee.soojung1@joongang.co.kr]
11. Kim Jong-un & Putin vow to build 'New World Order' in chilling warning to West
Kim Jong Un and the new world order.
Kim Jong-un & Putin vow to build 'New World Order' in chilling warning to West
the-sun.com · by Juliana Cruz Lima · January 21, 2024
KIM Jong-un and Vladimir Putin have sent a chilling warning to the West as they vowed to form a "New World Order".
North Korea said it has agreed to further strategic and tactical cooperation with Russia as both countries ramp up a united front against the United States.
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Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin have sent a chilling warning to the West as they vowed to establish a 'new world order'Credit: AFP
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The two tyrants are ramping up a united front against the United StatesCredit: Reuters
The North Korean Foreign Ministry said in a statement that the two countries agreed to further strategic and tactical cooperation to defend their core interests and establish a “new multi-polarised international order".
The government body also highlighted Putin’s intent for a visit Pyongyang, saying that could come at an "early date".
It followed North Korean foreign minister Choe Son Hui’s meetings with the Russian president and Foreign Minster Sergey Lavrov in Moscow last week.
North Korea has been aggressively tightening ties with Russia especially after Kim Jong-un's September visit to Russia for a summit with Putin.
One of the few world leaders openly supporting Putin's war on Ukraine, the North Korean tyrant is attempting to break out of diplomatic isolation.
Kim is trying to regain his footing as he navigates a worsening nuclear stalemate with Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo.
The North's Foreign Ministry added Choe and the Russian officials expressed “serious concern” over the US’ expanding military cooperation with its Asian allies that they blamed for worsening tensions in the region and threatening North Korea’s sovereignty and security interests.
Tensions on the Korean Peninsula are at their highest point in years, after Kim in recent months used Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a distraction to ramp up his weapons tests and military demonstrations.
The United States, South Korea and Japan have responded by strengthening their combined military exercises, nicknamed invasion rehearsals by Kim portrays as invasion rehearsals.
The trio are also sharpening their deterrence plans built around nuclear-capable US assets.
Warnings of a potential new world order had already been given by Putin's warmonger foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, who told the West that their time of "global domination" is over.
In a major press conference, the Kremlin crony blamed the West for launching a "war" against Russia and claimed Moscow and its allies have now "surpassed" Nato on the world stage.
Lavrov spoke on Thursday of the disintegration of Russia's relations with the West, the "mounting nuclear risks" and the "hostile" context the world is currently in.
He said the US and its allies "ruled the world for 500 years" and did not have "any competition" other than during the Soviet period.
But Vlad's lap dog pledged that those days are done.
He heralded a new age of geopolitics, referring to the "emerging and strengthening centres of economic growth, financial power and political influence".
This growing anti-Western axis, Lavrov said, are now "surpassing the US and other Western countries in their development".
Although he did not directly state which countries, he celebrated "the best period in history" for China-Russian relations.
And veteran Russian MP Alexander Osovtsov said World War Three has already begun for the West's enemies and "we're all participating in it".
The high-ranking Putin enemy said says the world can no longer ignore the fact that both the war in Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict are "two pieces of one war".
Osovtsov argued that World War Three started almost two years ago as Putin's tanks rolled across the border and the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, 2022.
"The war is now being fought in two military theatres - eastern Europe and the Middle East."
Meanwhile, Baltic states are racing to bolster defences on their borders with Russia and Belarus as Europe braces for an all-out war.
Admiral Rob Bauer, chief of NATO's military committee, has called on the West to "prepare for an era of war" - adding that the alliance "needs a warfighting transformation".
Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have agreed to build a series of bunkers on their borders with Russia and Belarus to protect their forces in the event of an attack, Estonia’s Defence Ministry announced on Friday.
The three NATO and EU members signed an agreement on the construction of "anti-mobility defensive installations".
Baltic states are seen as most at risk from a potential Russian attack as they share their border with Russia and its ally Belarus.
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Both countries agreed to further strategic and tactical cooperationCredit: Reuters
the-sun.com · by Juliana Cruz Lima · January 21, 2024
12. North Korea fires artillery shells, drops reunification goal with the South
Excerpts:
RASCOE: What do you think the U.S. and its allies in the region should do in response to this? Like, what should the response from the West be to these deepening ties between Russia and North Korea and to North Korea's kind of intransigence at this point?
HOWELL: I think, firstly, there's a real need for the United States to strengthen its alliances and reassure its allies, particularly South Korea and Japan, both bilaterally and trilaterally. And we saw this last year at the Camp David summit. I think there's also a growing need for the U.S. to make sure that South Korea and Japan themselves - that this bilateral alliance is strong because we know that, historically, it has been rather volatile. And I think ensuring that all of the United States' allies in Northeast Asia are on board is very important at this present time.
RASCOE: That's Edward Howell. He's a lecturer in politics at Oxford University. Thank you so much for being with us this morning.
HOWELL: Thank you very much.
North Korea fires artillery shells, drops reunification goal with the South
NPR · by Ayesha Rascoe · January 21, 2024
North Korea has fired artillery shells near South Korea and dropped the goal of reunification. Ayesha Rascoe talks with Edward Howell, a lecturer at the University of Oxford, about what this means.
AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
North Korea reversed its long-standing policy of peaceful unification with South Korea last week. Leader Kim Jong Un announced his country is abandoning that goal and declared South Korea its principal enemy. A day before that speech, North Korea tested a ballistic missile. And a few days afterwards, it claimed to have tested an underwater drone that could carry a nuclear weapon. Is this just posturing, or signs that the regime is about to make a dramatic move?
Edward Howell is a lecturer at the University of Oxford and specialist on North Korea, and he joins us now. Welcome to the program.
EDWARD HOWELL: Thank you very much. It's very good to be here.
RASCOE: So what do you make of Kim Jong Un turning away from the goal of unification? Why is he doing that, and why now?
HOWELL: So this is clearly a departure from North Korea's historic goal of reunifying the Korean Peninsula under the control of the North. What we're seeing, however, is North Korea really take advantage of the cleavages in international relations, the inability of the United Nations Security Council to stop North Korea from becoming, ultimately, a nuclear-armed state. That, in my view, is Kim Jong Un's ultimate goal at the moment. And by presenting South Korea as this foreign power, he justifies escalating any provocations towards them.
RASCOE: And are these recent military tests - are they more of the same? Or what should we read into them?
HOWELL: What we're seeing is that North Korea is escalating provocations both in rhetoric and in actions, as we've seen over the past few weeks, particularly given how this year is an election year. It's an election year in South Korea with legislative elections but also with the U.S. presidential elections in November. And this is in line with North Korea's past behavior.
But what we are seeing is an increased confidence on the part of North Korea that it does not want to negotiate with South Korea or the United States. And it's increasingly confident in its status as a self-declared nuclear armed state.
RASCOE: Is that because - I mean, obviously, there are a lot of sanctions on North Korea. In the past, they had wanted to try to work out a deal to get some relief and possibly give up at least some of their weapons. Is that no longer on the table for them?
HOWELL: North Korea, I think, under Kim Jong Un at this stage is really unwilling to negotiate. It's not even pretending to want to engage in talks with South Korea and with the United States. And Kim Jong Un has also made statements to his people making clear that the North Korean people should learn to live with sanctions. So what we're seeing here is quite a shift from previous times, previous points in times, in North Korean history where Pyongyang has made much greater attempt to try and extract concessions from the United States. In fact, what we're seeing is North Korea forge greater ties with its Cold War patrons, particularly of Russia.
RASCOE: Yeah, I wanted to ask you that because Russia has become much more important recently, and it actually bought a large shipment of arms from North Korea in the fall. So what do Russia and North Korea gain from each other?
HOWELL: So at the most fundamental level, this is a cash-for-ammunition exchange. North Korea gets money at a time when its economy is declining and it needs money, and Russia gets ammunition and vital artillery supplies. But I think, you know, we must remember that Russia is not North Korea's largest trading partner. That is China.
RASCOE: Yeah.
HOWELL: At the same time, there is a growing sense amongst the North Korean leadership that there is a need to take advantage of the fissures in the broader international environment and the formation of an anti-Western coalition between North Korea, Russia and with other countries is also very much on Pyongyang's minds.
RASCOE: What do you think the U.S. and its allies in the region should do in response to this? Like, what should the response from the West be to these deepening ties between Russia and North Korea and to North Korea's kind of intransigence at this point?
HOWELL: I think, firstly, there's a real need for the United States to strengthen its alliances and reassure its allies, particularly South Korea and Japan, both bilaterally and trilaterally. And we saw this last year at the Camp David summit. I think there's also a growing need for the U.S. to make sure that South Korea and Japan themselves - that this bilateral alliance is strong because we know that, historically, it has been rather volatile. And I think ensuring that all of the United States' allies in Northeast Asia are on board is very important at this present time.
RASCOE: That's Edward Howell. He's a lecturer in politics at Oxford University. Thank you so much for being with us this morning.
HOWELL: Thank you very much.
NPR · by Ayesha Rascoe · January 21, 2024
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
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