Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

"Ignorant men raise questions that wise men answered a thousand years ago."

– Goethe

"Calmness and humility provide pleasures which are not accessible to the selfish and the proud."

– Leo Tolstoy

"Don't walk behind me; I may not lead. Don't walk in front of me; I may not follow. Just walk beside me and be my friend."

– Albert Camus

1. S. Korea says N. Korean leader Kim's hostile rhetoric will not affect gov't blueprint on unification

2. S. Korean envoy lambasts N. Korea-Russia cooperation, UNSC resolution breach

3. Ukrainian delegation visits K-water for post-war reconstruction cooperation

4. South Korean official touts fledgling drone command as global model

5. Over 40 countries condemn Pyongyang-Moscow arms transfers

6. A New Concern on the Ukrainian Battlefield: North Korea’s Latest Missiles

7. Kim’s about-face triggers panic among activists

8. Kim Jong-un nostalgic for Trump-era diplomacy: Seoul defense chief

9. S. Korea urges China to protect NK defectors' human rights at UN review

10. North Korea's recent hostile words and actions

11. Is North Korea's leader actually considering war?

12. North Korea signals readiness for war, and key ally China may be powerless to stop it

13. South Korea’s ban on praising the North is ridiculous

14. Putin's visit to N. Korea imminent

15. Underwear boss accused of illegal North Korea remittance to be released on bail

16. S. Korean diplomatic missions under fire for wrong depiction of flag, traditional clothing

1. S. Korea says N. Korean leader Kim's hostile rhetoric will not affect gov't blueprint on unification

Kim Jong Un's new rhetoric about no longer seeking peaceful unification actually takes hope away from the Korean people in the north. The ROK and the Ministry of Unification must view this as an opportunity. The ROK now has the moral high ground on unificaiotn and it s the one that can give hope to all Korean people for a better future in a free and unified Korea.

I think there are two reasons for Kim's recent actions (calling the ROK the enemy and ending his (always fake) pursuit of unification). The regime has never sought peaceful unification through coexistence and unification. The regime only seeks domination. So Kim has exposed his what has always been the true strategy.

Yes, the ROK is the mortal enemy of the north. But it is not the ROK military or the ROK/US alliance that is the most dangerous threat. It is the example of the ROK, the rich, preposterous, successful ROK and the flow of information telling the ROK story that is an existential threat to the regime.

Furthermore, the regime has ceded the moral high ground of unification to the ROK. The ROK government and its ministry of unification are actually pursuing human rights and a free and unified Korea. This is a threat to the regime. And the April Biden Yoon Sumit and the Camp David Summit both emphasized a free and unified Korea that is at peace. Again this is a threat to the regime

The second reason for Kim 's recent rhetoric is that he might very well be under severe stress internally. He may perceive threats from the elite and from the Korean people in the north. teh Kim family regime playbook states that when faced with internal stresses it must "externalize" the threat (e.g., from the South and the US) in order to justify the sacrifice and suffering of the Korean people as Kim tells them he must prioritize the development of nuclear weapons and missiles over the welfare of the people in order to protect the north (and specifically to protect the Kim family regime).

And of course this rhetoric is already achieving his desired intent - to make the ROK and US and international community fear Kim. We must not play into his hands (but we are because most people are showing their fear). We must continue the new normal of a high level of readiness and interoperability to demonstrate our strength and resolve. (and understanding the paradox that our actions actually do help Kim with his narrative that we are the threat - but that is okay because counterintuitively that can stabilize the situation. - e..g, he knows we are not going to attack him unless he does first and he uses our threat to support his propaganda efforts to maintain internal control. He also knows by our actions in Ukraine, Taiwan, Gaza and Red Sea that the US does not want to escalate so he has room to maneuver and focus on controlling his domestic situation and threats.

The danger lies not with a calculated deliberate attack. it is if he cannot maintain internal control and perceives the threat is unmanageable. At that point he may believe his only option is to execute his campaign plan to unify the peninsula by force in order to ensure regime survival (even though he will not be successful, it might be his only option and hope).

The above analysis is certainly not the conventional wisdom of most Korean pundits.

S. Korea says N. Korean leader Kim's hostile rhetoric will not affect gov't blueprint on unification

The Korea Times · January 23, 2024

Gu Byung-sam, spokesperson for Ministry of Unification, speaks at the Governmental Complex in Seoul, Jan. 16. Yonhap

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's recent hostile rhetoric toward Seoul will not affect South Korea's decadeslong blueprint for unification, an official said Tuesday.

Kim has been lambasting South Korea with sharp-worded rhetoric, defining inter-Korean relations as "two states hostile to each other" and calling for codifying the commitment to "completely occupying" the South Korean territory in the event of war.

The barrage of hostile remarks led to South Korean media reports that the government is considering removing concepts like "Korean Commonwealth" from the decadeslong blueprint that has served as a basis for South Korea's unification policy over the past 30 years.

The unification plan laid out in 1994 "is something that cannot be modified solely by the government's decision," the official of the unification ministry in charge of inter-Korean affairs said.

Still, the official said the government is considering various ways to improve the blueprint amid changes in inter-Korean relations, adding details have yet to be confirmed.

In January last year, the ministry said it plans to update the government plan on unification and also draw up a new mid-and long-term blueprint on inter-Korean unification, tentatively named the "New Future Initiative on Unification."

The vision is aimed at paving the groundwork for a peaceful unification based on freedom and the democratic values espoused by the administration of Yoon Suk Yeol.

South and North Korea remain technically at war as the 1950-53 Korean War ended with a truce, not a peace treaty. (Yonhap)

The Korea Times · January 23, 2024

2. S. Korean envoy lambasts N. Korea-Russia cooperation, UNSC resolution breach

When you get the podium or the microphone you may as well use it for best effect. Don't hold back.

S. Korean envoy lambasts N. Korea-Russia cooperation, UNSC resolution breach | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · January 23, 2024

By Song Sang-ho

WASHINGTON, Jan. 22 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's top envoy to the U.N. renewed Seoul's criticism of arms transactions between North Korea and Russia during a U.N. Security Council (UNSC) meeting on Monday, as Russia's top diplomat shifted the blame to the West for the prolonging of the war in Ukraine.

South Korean Ambassador Hwang Joon-kook called the weapons transfers between Pyongyang and Moscow "direct" violations of UNSC resolutions during the meeting on the war in Ukraine, where Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov criticized the West's weapons support to Ukraine.

Before the meeting, diplomats from dozens of countries jointly lambasted what they termed the "hypocrisy" of Russia and defended the West's arms transfers to Ukraine as having proceeded in a "lawful" manner in support of Ukraine's "inherent right of self defense."

"Russia's use of North Korean missiles in Ukraine also has significant implications on global nuclear non-proliferation as well as on the Korean Peninsula," Hwang said. DPRK stands for the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

"Since it is unprecedented that UNSC resolutions were violated so flagrantly and seriously by a permanent member of the Security Council since the sanction regime was established against the DPRK in 2006, it is difficult to fathom the repercussions," he added.

South Korean Ambassador to the U.N. Hwang Joon-kook speaks during a U.N. Security Council meeting at U.N. headquarters in New York on Jan. 22, 2024 in this photo captured from a livestream of the meeting from U.N. Web TV. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

The White House has revealed that the North has supplied Russia with several dozen ballistic missiles in addition to its earlier provision of more than 1,000 containers of military equipment and munitions.

Hwang pointed out that revenue from the North's arms supplies would help enhance its weapons programs.

"It generates revenue for the DPRK, which is likely to be used to further the development of its illegal nuclear and missile programs. It could open the door for more arms sales to other states and non-state actors," he said.

Defending Russia's "special military operation" against Ukraine, Lavrov rejected the argument that Russia is prolonging the war as it has allegedly sought weapons from North Korea, Iran and elsewhere.

"Today, the absolute majority of unbiased experts see very clearly that the key factor which impedes ways towards a peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian crisis is the continued support on the part of the West to the regime in Kyiv," he said in a statement interpreted in English.

Lavrov also claimed that the "Western patrons" have been pushing Ukraine to continue with a "senseless military confrontation."

"This is done under the guise of false words, saying that the crash of the Zelenskyy regime would be an existential to the Ukrainians," he said. "Those who looked deeply into the genesis of the Ukrainian crisis can see very clearly that such statements contain not an iota of truth."

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov speaks during a U.N. Security Council meeting at U.N. headquarters in New York on Jan. 22, 2024 in this photo captured from a livestream of the meeting from U.N. Web TV. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

Robert Wood, the deputy U.S. ambassador to the U.N., accused Russia of using the council meeting as a "stage for its blatant disinformation."

"It is cynicism of the highest order to claim that legitimate and lawful support for Ukraine's self-defense is prolonging Russia's war of aggression," he said. "There are hundreds of thousands of Russian troops in Ukraine's internationally recognized territory. There is not a single Ukrainian soldier on Russian soil."

Wood went on to say that the Russian representative's accusations would sound more credible if "his government respected international law, the U.N. Charter and Security Council resolutions."

"No amount of conspiracy theories and baseless accusations erase the fact that Russia's violation of Ukraine's territorial integrity started the war," he said.

Robert Wood, the deputy U.S. ambassador to the U.N., speaks during a U.N. Security Council meeting at U.N headquarters in New York on Jan. 22, 2024 in this photo captured from a livestream of the meeting from U.N. Web TV. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

Shortly before the UNSC meeting, representatives from 46 countries and the European Union held a press conference, contending that Russia called for the meeting to "distract" from its war in Ukraine.

"We underscore the hypocrisy of the Russia Federation, calling yet another UNSC meeting to criticize lawful arms transfers to Ukraine that are done in support of Ukraine's inherent right of self defense as reflected in Article 51 of the U.N. Charter," they said.

They also condemned continued military support for Russia's war in Ukraine from North Korea, Iran and Belarus.

"We urge the DPRK and Russia to abide by the Security Council resolutions, and remain concerned that the Russian Federation's use of ballistic missiles from the DPRK provides the DPRK with valuable insights into the technical capabilities of its weapons," they said.

sshluck@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · January 23, 2024

3. Ukrainian delegation visits K-water for post-war reconstruction cooperation

The global pivotal state is stepping up in many areas.

Ukrainian delegation visits K-water for post-war reconstruction cooperation

The Korea Times · January 23, 2024

Volodymyr Remeniak, second from right, the mayor of Ukraine's western city of Horodok in Lviv Oblast, and the Ukrainian reconstruction cooperation delegation pose with K-water officials at the Sihwa Tidal Power Plant in Ansan, Gyeonggi Province, Tuesday. Courtesy of K-water

By Lee Hae-rin

A Ukrainian delegation focused on reconstruction cooperation inspected urban development projects belonging to the Korea Water Resources Corp. (K-water), such as eco-friendly power plants, Tuesday, to shed light on how the war-torn country might be able to apply learnings here to the post-war recovery of Ukraine.

According to the state-run water management company, the delegation consisting of Volodymyr Remeniak, the mayor of Ukraine’s western city of Horodok in Lviv Oblast, visited the Sihwa Tidal Power Plant in Ansan, Gyeonggi Province.

The power plant built by K-water in 2011 along Korea’s western coast is the largest tidal power installation in the world, supplying electricity to a population of 500,000. Its introduction helped to cut down petroleum imports by 862,000 barrels and the generation of carbon dioxide (CO2) by 315,000 tons per year.

Volodymyr Remeniak, left, second row, the mayor of Ukraine's western city of Horodok in Lviv Oblast, and the Ukrainian reconstruction cooperation delegation inspect the Sihwa Tidal Power Plant observatory in Ansan, Gyeonggi Province with K-water officials, Tuesday. Courtesy of K-water

The visit preceded the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) scheduled for Wednesday, regarding technical cooperation with K-water for Ukraine’s post-war urban development and water management in Horodok City and Lviv Oblast.

The delegation also visited K-water’s environmentally friendly tourism and leisure complex called Songsan Green City and the AI-based smart water treatment plant in Hwaseong, Gyeonggi Province.

K-water is the first Korean public institution to have joined the government’s reconstruction support projects for Ukraine, dubbed as One Team Korea, last July.

Once the war is over, the company will take charge and implement smart city technologies in the Uman area in central Ukraine and restore the damaged Kakhovka Dam along the Dnieper River.

The delegation’s visit and MOU are part of follow-up measures related to President Yoon Suk Yeol’s visit to the war-torn country on July 15, 2023.

At the time, Yoon agreed with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy to provide a comprehensive package of security, humanitarian and reconstruction assistance to Ukraine’s National Recovery Plan.

The reconstruction and recovery of the war-torn country is estimated to cost $411 billion and is expected to take over a decade, according to the latest joint assessment by the Ukrainian government, the World Bank, the European Commission and the United Nations, released last March on the anniversary of the war on Feb. 24, 2023.

The Korea Times · January 23, 2024

4. South Korean official touts fledgling drone command as global model

Recall the South Korean drone demonstration at the 2018 Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang. It was. synchronized drone ballet with a massive amount of drones. Imagine if all those drones were armed and sent north.

A photo of what might be called a "drone elephant walk" is at the link: https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2024/01/22/south-korean-official-touts-fledgling-drone-command-as-global-model/?utm

South Korean official touts fledgling drone command as global model

Defense News · by Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo · January 22, 2024

ABU DHABI, United Arab Emirates — Nations eager to bolster their military drone chops should look to South Korea, where officials recently centralized the discipline’s various functions under a single command, the chief of South Korea’s Drone Operations Command said.

“Before our Drone Operations Command was established, each branch of our armed forces had their own individual drone units,” Maj. Gen. Lee Bo-hyung said during a panel on the occasion of the UMEX conference here on Jan 22.

“However, since every branch has their own area of responsibility, when it came to operational and strategic deployments, there were some limits as to how we conducted our missions,” he added.

The Drone Operations Command was officially established in September in the wake of North Korea’s drone intrusion on Dec. 26, 2022, which included the entry of one enemy system into a no-fly zone near the presidential office in Seoul.

The South Korean military at the time earned much criticism for having failed to intercept and shoot down the drones. Following the incident, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol vowed to rapidly boost the country’s drone-related capabilities and readiness.

Bo-hyung said that one of the quickest and most effective moves to that end was creating a joint unit that could dedicate itself entirely to specific drone operations, both defensive and offensive.

“Since North Korea is significantly increasing their military capabilities, including nuclear threats, it is important for our Joint Chiefs of Staff to have a reliable, joint unit that can conduct these types of missions,” he said.

“We aim to have an operational and strategic balance at the command, we conduct reconnaissance as well as strike, electronic warfare and psychological warfare operations,” the official added.

The unit is based in Pocheon, near the inter-Korean border, and falls under the control of the Ministry of National Defense and JCS chairman. It is the first joint combat unit to be composed of Army, Navy, Air Force and Marine Corps, per a Korea Times report that quoted a previous military statement.

In line with the new command’s doctrine, all missions must now include mobile counter-drone capabilities for detecting and classifying enemy unmanned aircraft. The unit also has been tasked with standardizing the education curriculum of the country’s different military branches, and setting safety standards about the deployment of forces, Bo-hyung said.

“A great number of countries around the world are interested in deploying their drone forces as early as possible, so we suggest that they can look at our case as an example and could create something similar,” Bo-hyung said.

Meanwhile, South Korea’s drone-focused reorganization comes against the backdrop of an increasingly stance by the regime in Pyongyang.

According to the state news agency KCNA, leader Kim Jong Un said the regime would boost its nuclear arsenal in 2024 and abandon the objective of reunification with South Korea, instead designating Seoul as an enemy.

Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo is a Europe correspondent for Defense News. She covers a wide range of topics related to military procurement and international security, and specializes in reporting on the aviation sector. She is based in Milan, Italy.

5. Over 40 countries condemn Pyongyang-Moscow arms transfers

Unfortunately there are 193 member states in the UN. Do the rest support Russia and north Korea or are they simply indifferent or too timid to take a stand?

Over 40 countries condemn Pyongyang-Moscow arms transfers

The Korea Times · January 23, 2024

A U.N. Security Council meeting on Ukraine is held at the U.N. headquarters in New York, Monday (local time). AFP-Yonhap

Ukraine becoming ‘testing ground’ for North Korean missiles: analyst

By Jung Min-ho

South Korea and more than 40 other nations jointly condemned Pyongyang and Moscow for their arms transfers on Monday as concerns are rising that Ukraine could be used as a testing ground for North Korean missiles.

At a press conference held before a U.N. Security Council (UNSC) meeting at its headquarters in New York, diplomats from 46 countries and the European Union called on North Korea and Russia to abide by the Security Council resolutions. They expressed concern that Russia's use of North Korea's ballistic missiles for its war effort in Ukraine could provide the regime with valuable data regarding their real-world performance.

South Korean Ambassador Hwang Joon-kook called the arms transfers between the two countries a direct, unprecedented violation of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions with the involvement of a permanent member of the council.

“Russia’s use of North Korean missiles in Ukraine also has significant implications on global nuclear nonproliferation as well as on the Korean Peninsula … Since it is unprecedented that UNSC resolutions were violated so flagrantly and seriously by a permanent member of the security council since the sanction regime was established against the DPRK (North Korea) in 2006, it is difficult to fathom the repercussions,” Hwang said at the meeting.

Hwang said that sales of the weapons would allow the sanctions-hit regime to collect more hard currency, which it needs for the development of its nuclear and missile programs. “It could open the door for more arms sales to other states and non-state actors,” he added.

Tactical ballistic missiles, which are believed to be able to carry a nuclear payload and strike anywhere in South Korea, are among the suspected North Korean weapons being supplied to Russian troops on the battlefield in Ukraine.

Pyongyang’s military support, proven with satellite photos of its cargo shipments to Russia among many other ways, has played an increasingly crucial role in sustaining Russian aggression in Ukraine recently as its own production capacity struggles to keep up, experts say.

Earlier this month, the U.S. Department of State confirmed that some North Korean ballistic missiles were used for Russian attacks on Ukrainians on Dec. 30, 2023, and Jan. 2 and 6 this year.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov listens during a U.N. Security Council meeting on Ukraine at U.N. headquarters in New York, Monday (local time). AFP-Yonhap

Little is known about what North Korea has received in return. At the very minimum, it was given a chance to test its weapons in real-world combat situations, said Cho Han-bum, a senior analyst at the Korea Institute of National Unification, a think tank.

“Objective information on the performance of weapons in actual combat is critical for any country. Data from its weapons used in Ukraine would help the regime refine future designs and military strategies,” Cho told The Korea Times. “In addition, North Korea may be able to receive technical support, food or energy from Russia, who can provide them all of those.”

Restricted by heavy sanctions for decades, North Korea would appreciate any support for its military, he said.

“It doesn’t have to be advanced technology. Currently, North Korea is said to have operated only 10 of the MiG-29 fighter jets it has due to a lack of components. Russia could provide help or simply offer dozens of the MiG-29 series aircraft it no longer uses. Such a possibility poses a significant threat to South Korea,” he said.

According to a Guardian report, British defense intelligence secured satellite imagery, taken between September and December 2023, of three Russian ships loading containers at North Korea’s revived Najin port before transiting to Russian ports in the Far East.

The Korea Times · January 23, 2024

6. A New Concern on the Ukrainian Battlefield: North Korea’s Latest Missiles

We need to apply US capabilities to demonstrate how to defeat north Korean missiles. Both missile defense as well as precision strike against the missile system on the ground. This should be an opportunity to demonstrate the inferiority of north Korean missile systems.

On the other hand, South Korean legislators and the Korean people need to view these attacks and their effects to remind them that they must fully fund South Korean defense capabilities to protect the South from these types of missile attacks.

A New Concern on the Ukrainian Battlefield: North Korea’s Latest Missiles

As the war approaches its second anniversary, the Russians are beginning to deploy North Korean arms, worsening Ukraine’s troubles while it still awaits new air defenses from the United States.

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The aftermath of a Russian strike in Kyiv, Ukraine, in early January.Credit...Laura Boushnak for The New York Time

By David E. Sanger, Julian E. Barnes and Eric Schmitt

David E. Sanger reported from Berlin, and Julian E. Barnes and Eric Schmitt from Washington.

Jan. 22, 2024

阅读简体中文版閱讀繁體中文版

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When Russia turned to Kim Jong-un of North Korea to help it through its war with Ukraine, it came with a big shopping list that included a million rounds of artillery to shoot at Ukrainian troops dug into trenches across the south and east, and dozens of North Korea’s newest, barely tested missiles.

Now those weapons are beginning to show up, deeply worrying U.S. and European officials who say they fear the North’s ammunition could prove important on the battlefield at a huge moment of vulnerability for Ukraine.

While many of the North Korean artillery rounds are proving to be duds — some appear to have been manufactured decades ago — they are giving the Russians something to fire at Ukrainian forces, who are rationing their own dwindling supply. European nations promised Ukraine a huge resupply, but for now seem to have been able to scrounge up only 300,000 or so artillery shells.

But it is the missiles that raise the most concern, from the Pentagon to NATO’s headquarters in Brussels. In interviews, a range of officials said they fear the Russians hope to use missiles to overwhelm Western air defenses. While so far the number of missiles transferred is small, likely fewer than 50, U.S. and European officials believe there could be far more to come.

And unlike with the artillery rounds, North Korea is not shipping its older equipment. An analysis by Conflict Armament Research, an organization that has documented the arms used in Russia’s war in Ukraine, showed the missiles being provided to Russia are more recent in their design. And U.S. officials say the missiles are proving as accurate as Russia’s home-built equipment. Three barrages of North Korean-made missiles targeted Ukrainian positions around the new year, American officials say, and they believe more were used on the battlefield on Sunday.

In South Korea, officials and analysts say the Ukraine war is giving the North something it desperately needs: a testing ground to see how its new missile arsenal, designed for a conflict with South Korea and the United States, fares against Western-designed air defenses.

The turn to North Korea, as the war approaches its second anniversary, reflects Russia’s own struggle to keep up with the pace at which both sides are burning through their stocks of arms. Russia has also turned to Iran for drones, and is reportedly seeking Iranian missiles as well — though there is no evidence it has yet gotten them.

The bulk of the missiles being fired at Ukraine are still produced in Russia. But if North Korea steps up its supply, Ukraine could be forced to shoot off precious rounds of air defenses, a development that could be devastating to Ukraine if additional military funding is not approved by Congress, American officials said. The imports have especially alarmed leading members of NATO, who have declined to speak publicly but say they worry the infusion of the North Korean arms could prove particularly troublesome at a time when Ukraine is uncertain about when, or from whom, it will receive its next supplies.

Image

Kim Jong-un of North Korea and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia in a state news photograph from September. North Korea has been providing Russia with arms for its war with Ukraine.Credit...Vladimir Smirnov/Sputnik

For now, the air defenses are holding. Last Tuesday, Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the top American commander in Europe, told Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III that he believed the Ukrainian military had enough air defenses to survive the winter, two senior U.S. officials said.

But if North Korea increases its missile shipments, and Congress fails to pass additional aid, that calculation could change.

Russia has already obtained several dozen North Korean missiles and is hoping to acquire more. President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia said he planned to visit North Korea soon, according to North Korean state media. Russia has fired North Korean missiles against Ukraine at least three times since late December, including attacks on Dec. 30, Jan. 2 and Jan. 6.

The missiles come on top of a steady stream of artillery shells, as many as a million rounds, that North Korea has agreed to ship to Russia. But the quality of those rounds is poor. Some have exploded inside Russian guns, and many of the rest have fallen harmlessly in underpopulated areas.

Quantity itself, however, matters on the battlefield. Last summer, Ukraine was firing as many as 7,000 artillery shells a day and had managed to damage Russia’s ammunition supplies to the point that Russia was firing about 5,000 rounds a day, according to U.S. and other Western analysts. Now the Ukrainians are struggling to fire 2,000 rounds daily, while Russian artillery, augmented by the North Korean shells, is reaching about 10,000 a day, analysts said.

Still, U.S. officials are far more worried about North Korean missiles.

After the first barrage, Jake Sullivan, the U.S. national security adviser, began working on an intensified effort to gather international support condemning the weapons transfer, and trying to increase pressure on North Korea to stop providing the missiles.

U.S. officials believe that at times since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, U.S. disclosures of North Korean shipments have caused Pyongyang to halt or delay further transfers.

The Russian transfers are coming at a critical time in the war in Ukraine, as further American support hangs in the balance, subject to intense political debates on Capitol Hill. Ukraine’s ammunition needs will be a main focus of a virtual meeting of Kyiv’s allies on Tuesday, to be led by Mr. Austin.

The United States has provided myriad air defense systems and ammunition to Ukraine. And American officials have said those systems — including Patriot batteries — have proved capable of blunting the damage of Russian missile attacks.

But American officials said that in order to provide more air defense systems and ammunition, Congress needs to approve an additional aid package.

U.S. officials say Ukrainian air defenses are a critical area of concern. After initial setbacks because of Western sanctions, Russia has rebuilt its industrial capacity and stockpiled missiles. But if Russia can get even more North Korean missiles, it will be able to more easily overcome Ukrainian defenses.

“The Ukrainians continue to get attacked,” John F. Kirby, a spokesman for the National Security Council, said on Wednesday. “They continue to come under artillery shell, air attacks, ballistic and cruise missile, as well as drone attacks from the Russians.”

Image

Last summer, Ukraine was firing as many as 7,000 artillery shells a day, but analysts say that number has fallen to about 2,000.Credit...Finbarr O'Reilly for The New York Times

It will be difficult for the United States to stop those additional shipments. North Korea has been taking a more belligerent position in its foreign policy in recent days. It has declared that it would no longer seek reconciliation with the South, prompting some experts to speculate that the country may be seeking to provoke a new conflict — though the evidence for that is fragmentary at best. Without question, though, it has focused on strengthening its ties with Russia.

Yet the nature of the renewed relationship is not clear. Russia is promising an array of technology in return for the North’s ballistic missiles, including aircraft and advanced technological know-how. But U.S. officials do not believe Russia has yet provided the weaponry or additional ballistic missile technology.

John Ismay contributed reporting from Washington, and Choe Sang-Hun from Seoul.

David E. Sanger covers the Biden administration and national security. He has been a Times journalist for more than four decades and has written several books on challenges to American national security. More about David E. Sanger

Julian E. Barnes covers the U.S. intelligence agencies and international security matters for The Times. He has written about security issues for more than two decades. More about Julian E. Barnes

Eric Schmitt is a national security correspondent for The Times, focusing on U.S. military affairs and counterterrorism issues overseas, topics he has reported on for more than three decades. More about Eric Schmitt

A version of this article appears in print on Jan. 23, 2024, Section A, Page 12 of the New York edition with the headline: New Concern on Ukrainian Battlefield: North Korea’s Latest Missiles. Order Reprints | Today’s Paper | Subscribe

7. Kim’s about-face triggers panic among activists

No, no, no. Do not panic. All is not lost. Kim has provided an opportunity.

Here is the title of a new paper I am working on:

A New “Three Plus One Strategy" – Pressure the Kim Family Regime by Helping the Korean People in the North

The People are Incredibly Resilient But Need Help to Create Change

Monday

January 22, 2024

dictionary + A - A

Published: 22 Jan. 2024, 20:02

Kim’s about-face triggers panic among activists

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2024-01-22/opinion/columns/Kims-aboutface-triggers-panic-among-activists/1964268

Chang Se-jeong

The author is an editorial writer at the JoongAng Ilbo.

Whenever tensions grow between the two Koreas, the North has threatened the peace of the Peninsula with bizarre statements, including the labeling of a South Korean leader as a “boiled cow head” and various armed provocations. But North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s bombshell statements in recent weeks are far different from those of the past. “North-South relations have completely fixated into hostile relations between two countries at war, not the homogeneous ones anymore,” Kim said at the Workers’ Party meeting on Dec. 30.

In his New Year’s address at the Supreme People’s Assembly on Jan. 15, Kim said, “We should completely eliminate such concepts as ‘reunification,’ ‘reconciliation’ and ‘fellow countrymen’ from the national history of our republic.”

Kim ordered the deletion of terms such as independence, peaceful unification and national solidarity from the North Korean constitution and a redefinition of the South as the “number one hostile state.” On Kim’s order, North Korea dismantled organizations dealing with South Korean affairs such as the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Fatherland, the National Economic Cooperation Bureau and the Mount Kumgang International Tourism Administration.

North Korean experts point out that these measures undermine the three key ideas of the July 4, 1972 Joint Statement. They also said the North has completely denied the 1991 basic agreement which defined inter-Korea diplomacy as “a special interim relationship stemming from the process towards unification” instead of “being a relationship between states.”

Kim’s remarks likely confused North Korean residents and pro-North Korean groups in the South, as they were a dramatic change to the direction of the North Korean regime’s propaganda.

A senior source well-informed about the affairs of the General Association of Korean Residents in Japan, or Chongryon, which has pushed a unification movement under the North’s guidance for more than 70 years, said the pro-North Korean group in Japan was baffled by Pyongyang’s recent stance. “They asked the North’s United Front Department if Pyongyang is abandoning the policy of unification, and what they should do from now on, but received no answers,” the source said.

It is even more surprising that pro-North activists in the South remain silent. If they were truly calling for unification, they should have organized a massive rally to condemn Kim Jong-un’s declaration of the anti-unification line, but they made no movement. Could it be that they have lost sense and fallen into a mental breakdown due to the North’s abrupt change to its South Korea policy?

Researcher Kim Young-hwan of the Network for North Korean Democracy and Human Rights, who brought Kim Il Sung’s ideology of juche, or self-reliance, to the South for the first time, said pro-North activists in the country must have been confused. The “godfather” of the pro-Pyongyang activists, who smuggled himself into the North using a submersible in May of 1988, met with Kim Il Sung in person.

The following is an excerpt from the interview.

Q. If Kim Il Sung were alive today, how would he react to his grandson’s denial of nationhood and reunification?

A. “He would probably be furious. Kim Jong-il would show a different reaction. He thought that North-led unification was a delusion. But he did not deny it publicly as his son did, because elder veterans of the 1950-53 Korean War were still alive at the time.”

Why did Kim Jong-un publicize his denial of nationhood and unification at this particular time?

“Before the 1980s, the North had claimed unification with an offensive attitude. But after that period, the North used it in a defensive mode by labeling the South as antiunification forces. Now, accusing the South of being anti-unification forces no longer works with the North Korean people. It seems that Pyongyang concluded that inter-Korean exchanges, cooperation and unification are threats to the Kim Jong-un regime.”

Why do hardcore followers of juche ideology remain strangely quiet?

“I am also curious how Lee Seok-ki’s East Gyeonggi Coalition, which is still somewhat active, will react to the North’s about-face. Perhaps they will come up with bizarre logic without denying North Korea to get through this hardship. Those emotional pro-North activists who blindly followed the North’s propaganda will lose power and dismantle.”

As we enter 2024, inter-Korean relations are seeing a completely new phase amounting to a paradigm shift. Signs are serious that the North will stage provocations. The Defense Ministry and the Joint Chiefs of Staff as well as the National Intelligence Service and the Unification Ministry must read the North’s hidden intentions at times like now. The reality of the feudal hereditary dictatorship’s anachronistic propaganda and incitement against the flow of historical development should be widely known to the North Korean people and the rest of the world. The North’s about-face presents us with both a crisis and an opportunity.

8. Kim Jong-un nostalgic for Trump-era diplomacy: Seoul defense chief

I think if the former president returns to office, Kim may be very disappointed.

Kim Jong-un nostalgic for Trump-era diplomacy: Seoul defense chief

koreaherald.com · by Kim Arin · January 23, 2024

Extra military aid from Putin may involve air defense systems at potential Pyongyang summit

By Kim Arin

Published : Jan. 23, 2024 - 18:45

Shin Won-sik, South Korea’s minister of national defense, speaks during an interview with The Korea Herald on Monday in his reception room. (Im Se-jun/The Korea Herald)

Shin Won-sik, the minister of national defense of South Korea, says North Korean leader Kim Jong-un could carry out a nuclear weapons test at any time this year if he believes he could gain what he wants from the next US president by doing so.

In an interview with The Korea Herald on Monday, the South Korean defense chief said North Korea’s Kim may seek to leverage the US presidential election in November to get the incoming administration in Washington to accede to his demands.

North Korea may try to “push to the brink” of a security crisis by intensifying weapons tests and simulations of attacks on South Korea and the US, if Kim Jong-un is “let to believe doing so could make the next US administration give him want he wants,” he said.

The response came after The Korea Herald asked if he thought a nuclear test by North Korea was viable this year in the context of the presidential election in the US.

“For several years since the last time North Korea tested a nuclear bomb in 2017, which was its sixth, Kim Jong-un did not actually go through with his threats of conducting a seventh test,” he said. “That’s because we made sure not to give him any reason to think another nuclear test would work out in his favor.”

The calculus for Kim could soon change with the US presidential election coming up late this year, he said. And Kim could act out with even more provocations, seeking to return to a time when he could threaten Seoul and Washington into favors.

“Kim Jong-un would surely love to turn the clock back to the years he misses most, 2016 and 2017, when he was still able to weaponize climbing tensions on the Korean Peninsula,” he said.

The minister said the North Korean leader would seek to make the year 2025, when a new administration is in charge in the US, “once again like 2018,” in an apparent reference to the US-North Korea summit in Singapore. Then-President Donald Trump met with the Kim in an unprecedented move for a sitting US leader.

“The best time for Kim Jong-un to have nuclear weapons was the year 2018,” he said. “Kim launched ballistic missiles and conducted a sixth nuclear test in 2017. Then when he waved the olive branch in early 2018, South Korea and the US were so swept off our feet.”

He said that Kim “must be nostalgic for the US-North Korea diplomacy of that era.”

“He will be watching for signs in the US for a possible retreat from a policy of sanctions and toward one of appeasement once again, and which presidential candidates support such a change,” he said.

Such North Korea rhetoric from potential US presidents “will signal to him that the advantages of testing his nuclear arsenal could outweigh the disadvantages, like before,” Shin said. “In which case, he would feel emboldened to undertake a nuclear test any time.”

Politics aside, the minister said “at least a couple of tests is essential” for North Korea to verify the reliability of its newly developed tactical nuclear weapons and high-yield hydrogen bombs. Intelligence authorities in Seoul said earlier this month that the need for another nuclear test was “higher than before” for North Korea, citing the Hwasan-31 warheads unveiled in March last year.

“The perceived strategic gains and the military necessity are two important benchmarks for determining whether a seventh nuclear test will be carried out, I think,” he said, adding that a lot of variables were at play.

The minister warned that the North Korean leader “would be absolutely mistaken to think there is more for him to gain than to lose from an additional nuclear test.”

Shin, the South Korean defense chief, says the enhanced extended deterrence under US President Joe Biden will stay in place no matter which administration comes into office next year. (Im Se-jun/The Korea Herald)

He said “the fortified bilateral nuclear deterrence” built under the current Joe Biden administration together with South Korea has ensured “no nuclear assault from North Korea will be tolerated, ever.”

“Such an attempt would mean the end of the Kim Jong-un regime. He will be faced to realize the choice will come down to his survival or nukes,” he said, reiterating the warning he has delivered in past public appearances. He added that the circumstances of late, such as United Nations sanctions, prevented a president of any political party from engaging with North Korea.

The minister said that at a key meeting taking place in the summer, the commitments to mutual defense outlined in the Washington Declaration will be “cemented” to remain firm under any US president.

Presidents Yoon Suk Yeol and Biden adopted the Washington Declaration in April last year -- which the minister called the “strongest affirmation of extended deterrence from the US to date.”

He said that at the August meeting of the Nuclear Consultative Group, the South Korea-US body for implementing the Washington Declaration, the joint nuclear deterrence against North Korea pursued by Yoon and Biden will be “institutionalized” and “signed into measures of irreversibility.”

Besides, South Korea is on the “front lines” of the strategic rivalry between the US and China, he pointed out. “No matter which administration takes power, the US is unlikely to do anything that could risk eroding the confidence of not only South Korea but of other important allies,” he said.

Shin said he “highly doubts” that a possible contingency in Taiwan could lead to some of the US forces stationed in South Korea being pulled out. He was responding to The Korea Herald's question about what impact such a move by the US could have on the security situation on the Korean Peninsula.

“I don’t believe it is something we should be worried about. In such a scenario, even more US strategic assets will have to be deployed here. To weaken the US forces here will be a very inappropriate move,” he said. “I trust the US administration and the Pentagon to make the right call.”

He went on, “If domestically in South Korea we keep questioning whether the US forces will stay, we might be giving the wrong sign that it is a possibility. We don’t want that, and our answer will have to be a firm ‘no.’”

Shin poses for photograph during an interview with The Korea Herald at the ministry office in Yongsan, central Seoul, on Monday. (Im Se-jun/The Korea Herald)

On the possible visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to Pyongyang, the minister said that additional transfers of military technology were anticipated. “We’re on the lookout for the extent and the kinds of technology that Russia could provide North Korea with,” he said.

Asked if he thought Russia could help North Korea hone its nuclear technology, despite being a party to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, he said the country “has already shown it is capable of ignoring the sanctions it agreed to impose as a permanent member of the UN Security Council.

“The concern is that Russia might offer North Korea the help it needs without much restraint.”

Russian help was already suspected to be behind North Korea’s successful launch of a spy satellite in November last year, and with continued cooperation from Russia, North Korea could launch yet another such satellite with improved capabilities.

He said that this time Russia’s assistance, which is believed to have mainly involved satellite and space-related technology so far, could range from missile technology for building ballistic and cruise missiles to air defense systems and the aircraft that North Korea most sorely lacks.

In another instance of troubling alignment between the two countries, he said North Korea appears to have shipped “over 5,500 containers” of arms and munitions to Russia based on the latest assessment. “We don’t yet know what exactly is in them, but we think they are primarily artillery weapons that Russia needs most as well as some short-range ballistic missiles,” he said.

On South Korea’s Ukraine aid being limited to a humanitarian and financial nature, he said personally he sees “full support as the way to go as a member of the free world,” but that he stands by the government’s policy.

In a previous interview with The Korea Herald in June last year, Shin, then a lawmaker with the ruling party, said he supported supplying weapons to Ukraine -- either lethal or nonlethal. “The days of strategic ambiguity are over,” he had said at the time, arguing that South Korea must take a side.

The minister said that North Korea was also thought to have provided weapons to Hamas, the Palestinian Islamist militant group at war with Israel since its attack on Gaza in October last year.

“I do think there have been military exchanges between North Korea and Hamas on a steady basis, although it’s hard to say at this point if the North Korean weapons were sent before or after the breakout of war,” he said.

The minister said that the South Korean military was continuing to “closely follow” the possibility of a sudden change in the North Korean regime.

Recently, the National Intelligence Service said that 10-year-old Ju-ae, Kim Jong-un’s only publicly known child, was his “most likely successor.” The Ministry of Unification overseeing inter-Korean affairs said worsening food shortages in North Korea were pushing more to flee the country, citing defectors.

Despite a rise in provocations from North Korea, the minister said he believes South Korea was in a state of peace.

“For the past 70 years since the Korean War, North Korea hasn’t ceased making military threats of varying scales. All throughout those seven decades, we kept them from waging a war,” he said.

“In a market economy, the world is doing business with South Korea because they believe we are in a state of peace. That is how our economy has grown as much as it has.”

The minister said the only way to peace was through force.

Under his leadership, the South Korean military was responding to North Korean threats on the principle of instant retaliation known as “PISU,” or “Punish Immediately, Punish Strongly, Punish Until the end.”

“In the past, we entertained the idea of peace and reconciliation with North Korea from time to time, which invariably returned with an even greater military provocation,” he said.

“With criminals like the Kim Jong-un regime as our neighbors, there is no other way of maintaining peace than through force.”

koreaherald.com · by Kim Arin · January 23, 2024

9. S. Korea urges China to protect NK defectors' human rights at UN review

Keep the pressure on, Ambassador Yun. China is complicit in north Korean human rights abuses.

S. Korea urges China to protect NK defectors' human rights at UN review

koreaherald.com · by Yonhap · January 23, 2024

By Yonhap

Published : Jan. 23, 2024 - 21:51

Yun Seong-deok, South Korea's Ambassador to the UN office in Geneva, recommends China protect the human rights of North Korean defectors at China's fourth universal periodic review held under the auspices of United Nations Human Rights Council on Tuesday. (Yonhap)

South Korea on Tuesday recommended China protect the human rights of North Koreans who defected to the communist neighbor at a United Nations review session here.

Yun Seong-deok, South Korean ambassador to the U.N. office in Geneva, called on Beijing to provide North Korean defectors with the required protections and humanitarian support at China's fourth universal periodic review (UPR) held under the auspices of the United Nations Human Rights Council.

It is the first time for South Korea to raise the issue of North Korean defectors' human rights at the UN peer-review process against China.

UPR is a mechanism that calls for each UN member state to go through a peer review of its human rights record every 4.5 years.

Yun also asked China not to forcibly repatriate North Korean defectors and consider generating its own refugee law as part of efforts to carry out the 1951 Geneva Refugee Convention, which outlines refugees' rights and the international standards of treatment for their protection.

South Korea's recommendation came amid reports that China has repatriated North Korean defectors despite the possibility that they could face harsh treatment back at home.

In the review, however, Pang Kwang-hyok, Pyongyang's deputy permanent representative to the UN in Geneva, said the North highly appreciates the political system and the path for economic growth chosen by the Chinese people and China has achieved the equality of human rights and economic prosperity through modernization.

China has been accused of sending back North Korean refugees based on its view that they have illegally crossed the border into China for economic reasons. (Yonhap)

koreaherald.com · by Yonhap · January 23, 2024

10. North Korea's recent hostile words and actions

Do not panic. Do not overreact. Do not give up on solving the "Korea question" (the unnatural division of the peninsula).

This is an opportunity for South Korea to take the lead on unification and the pursuit of a free and unified Korea.

Excerpts;

In an article published in 38 North, the Washington-based Stimson Center’s program focused on North Korea, Robert Gallucci, a former chief of the Northeast Asia Division at the Bureau of Intelligence and Research at the U.S. State Department, and Siegfried Hecker, a professor of practice at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey, who visited North Korea several times, argued that Kim Jong-un’s recent words and actions point toward “the prospects of a military solution” using his large nuclear arsenal.

In a bid to avoid the devastating chicken game with North Korea on the Korean Peninsula, South Korea should devise a new policy to utilize the hostile words and actions made by Pyongyang.

According to a poll published by the Peaceful Unification Advisory Council, a presidential consultative body in South Korea, 73.7 percent of the respondents said unification with the North is necessary. However, more than half of the respondents supported the idea of the South and the North being two countries in which Koreans can visit freely, while only 28.5 percent supported a single sovereign state on the Korean Peninsula.

What this means is that South Koreans can be supportive when Seoul and Pyongyang agree to not seek unification, but to redefine inter-Korean relations as two different countries on the Korean Peninsula.

The emergence of such a new idea from Seoul could help tip the balance, especially when Washington faces constraints in engaging in dialogue with Pyongyang due to the 2024 U.S. presidential election and other diplomatic agendas.

It is the responsibility of a stronger and economically better country to resolve the security conflicts in the region. Rather than waiting for the Kim regime to collapse and the North to voluntarily withdraw its nuclear weapons, South Korea should take a step to formally end the 1950-53 Korean War and consistently urge North Korea to dismantle its nuclear arsenal with a blue print in which the North can coexist with South Korea peacefully on the Korean Peninsula.

North Korea's recent hostile words and actions

The Korea Times · January 22, 2024

By Mitch Shin

Mitch Shin

Starting in late December 2023, North Korea kicked off its belligerent and hostile moves against South Korea.

Kim Jong-un, the supreme leader of North Korea, said that South Korea must not be considered as a partner for reconciliation or unification, during a key ruling party meeting in late December 2023.

Following his words, North Korea fired artillery shells in the western sea boundary with South Korea earlier this month and test-launched a new solid-fuel intermediate-range missile tipped with a hypersonic weapon on January 14.

About three weeks later, he said South Korea is no longer a partner for unification. Kim said the constitution should be amended to call South Korea the “primary foe,” according to the North’s state-controlled media.

Apparently, Pyongyang seems to have concluded that taking a hawkish approach against Seoul is strategically beneficial to its national interests, as well as strengthening ties with Moscow as it has been accused of supplying ammunition to Russia for the prolonged war in Ukraine. In light of Kim’s words and actions, Seoul and Washington must find some momentum to tip the balance.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol responded to the North’s recent hostile words and actions, saying that his military would punish North Korea multiple times just as hard if it launches a provocation. Washington also condemned Pyongyang’s latest words and actions, while urging it to return to diplomacy.

Clearly, the vicious cycle of the tit-for-tat between the South Korea-U.S. alliance and North Korea has resumed on the Korean Peninsula.

Considering the North’s interpretation of the South Korea-U.S. joint military drills as an invasion rehearsal, North Korea will test some advanced missiles once the drills are conducted. As a corresponding measure against the North’s missile test, U.S. strategic assets will be deployed in the South’s territory or sea while Washington sanctions more individuals or entities related to the North’s missile development.

Kim Yo-jong, the powerful sister of Kim Jong-un, recently mocked Seoul’s moves, calling them action providing reasons for Pyongyang to beef up its missile capabilities.

The U.S. condemns the North’s military cooperation with Russia, but has not recalibrated its policy on North Korea to bring Kim Jong-un back to the negotiating table. U.S. President Joe Biden’s approach to North Korea was an updated version of Barack Obama’s “strategic patience” -- which is a failed approach to the denuclearization of North Korea.

North Korea shut down propaganda sites such as Uriminzokkiri, Arirang Meari and DPRK Today that were tasked with spreading propaganda information in South Korea. The North’s government agencies, such as the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of the Country and the Mount Kumgang International Tourism Administration, which were tasked with handling relations with South Korea, have also been abolished, according to the North’s state media reports on Jan. 16.

Given the circumstances, experts have delivered their concerns and pessimistic views on the prospects of inter-Korean relations and the nuclear talks between the U.S. and North Korea for 2024.

In an article published in 38 North, the Washington-based Stimson Center’s program focused on North Korea, Robert Gallucci, a former chief of the Northeast Asia Division at the Bureau of Intelligence and Research at the U.S. State Department, and Siegfried Hecker, a professor of practice at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey, who visited North Korea several times, argued that Kim Jong-un’s recent words and actions point toward “the prospects of a military solution” using his large nuclear arsenal.

In a bid to avoid the devastating chicken game with North Korea on the Korean Peninsula, South Korea should devise a new policy to utilize the hostile words and actions made by Pyongyang.

According to a poll published by the Peaceful Unification Advisory Council, a presidential consultative body in South Korea, 73.7 percent of the respondents said unification with the North is necessary. However, more than half of the respondents supported the idea of the South and the North being two countries in which Koreans can visit freely, while only 28.5 percent supported a single sovereign state on the Korean Peninsula.

What this means is that South Koreans can be supportive when Seoul and Pyongyang agree to not seek unification, but to redefine inter-Korean relations as two different countries on the Korean Peninsula.

The emergence of such a new idea from Seoul could help tip the balance, especially when Washington faces constraints in engaging in dialogue with Pyongyang due to the 2024 U.S. presidential election and other diplomatic agendas.

It is the responsibility of a stronger and economically better country to resolve the security conflicts in the region. Rather than waiting for the Kim regime to collapse and the North to voluntarily withdraw its nuclear weapons, South Korea should take a step to formally end the 1950-53 Korean War and consistently urge North Korea to dismantle its nuclear arsenal with a blue print in which the North can coexist with South Korea peacefully on the Korean Peninsula.

Mitch Shin is a chief correspondent for The Diplomat and a research fellow at the Institute for Peace & Diplomacy. Shin was a non-resident research fellow at the Institute for Security & Development Policy, Stockholm Korea Center, and a nonresident Korea Foundation fellow at Pacific Forum.

The Korea Times · January 22, 2024

11. Is North Korea's leader actually considering war?

I doubt it very much (at least not anytime soon and only when the conditions are advantageous) It is of course possible but to what end? Anyone who espouses that Kim is going to war this should be asked to describe what are Kim's objectives and how would he take such action and turn it into a victory for him? What is Kim's theory of winning? Let us hear the explanations from those who make these speculations.

I apologize if my analysis does not fit the conventional thinking of those who want to assess Kim is going to war.

Is North Korea's leader actually considering war?

BBC

By Frances MaoBBC News

KCNA

Kim Jong Un's new tone should not be ignored, say experts

North Korea experts - by nature, a cautious group who seek to avoid sowing panic - have been left reeling by two of their own.

Last week, the two eminent analysts dropped a bomb - so to speak - in stating their belief that the pariah state's leader is preparing for war.

Kim Jong Un has scrapped the bedrock goal of reconciling and re-uniting with South Korea, they said. Instead, he's presenting the North and South as two independent states at war with each other.

"We believe, that like his grandfather in 1950, Kim Jong Un has made a strategic decision to go to war," wrote Robert L Carlin, a former CIA analyst and Siegfried S Hecker, a nuclear scientist who's visited the North several times, in an article on specialist site 38 North.

Such a pronouncement set off alarm bells in Washington and Seoul, and a massive debate in North Korea watching circles.

Most analysts, however, disagree with the war theory; the BBC spoke to seven experts across Asia, Europe and North America - none of whom supported the idea.

"Risking his entire regime on a potentially cataclysmic conflict is not on-brand for the North Koreans. They have proven to be ruthlessly Machiavellian," says Christopher Green, a Korea watcher from Crisis Group based in the Netherlands.

He and others note the North often acts out to bring Western powers to the table for dialogue; and there are political pressures at home too.

What all of the experts do agree on though is that Mr Kim's increased bluster can't be ignored and his regime has grown more dangerous.

Because while most argue war may still be unlikely, others fear a more limited attack could yet be on the cards.

What has led to this?

Close watchers of North Korea's Kim Jong Un are used to his nuclear threats, but some say the latest messages from Pyongyang are of a different nature.

Six days on from his New Year's Eve declaration that "it is fait accompli that a war can break out anytime on the Korean peninsula", his military blasted artillery across the border.

South Korea Ministry of Defence

South Korean military held live fire drills in response to artillery fire from the North

North Korea has also claimed a test of a new solid-fuelled missile, and its underwater attack drones, which can supposedly carry a nuclear weapon, since the start of January.

They follow on from two years of near-monthly missile launches and weapons development in blatant contravention of UN sanctions.

However, it was his announcement of formally abandoning the goal of unification that last week furrowed brows. Reuniting with the South had always been a key - if increasingly unrealistic - part of the North's ideology since the inception of the state.

"This is a big deal. It fundamentally alters one of the regime's core ideological precepts," says Peter Ward, a senior researcher at Kookmin University in Seoul.

Kim Jong Un would now be tearing down that legacy - literally. Along with shutting diplomacy channels and cross-border radio broadcasts, he has announced he will demolish the Reunification Arch, a nine-storey monument on the outskirts of Pyongyang.

The arch, showing two women in traditional Korean dress reaching towards each other, had been built in 2001 to mark his father's and grandfather's efforts towards the goal of reunification.

Getty Images

Kim Jong Un plans to destroy this Reunification Arch to symbolise his disgust with the South

Kim Il Sung had been the one who went to war in 1950, but he was also the one who set the idea that at some point North Koreans would be united with their southern kin again.

But his grandson has now chosen to define South Koreans as different people altogether - perhaps to justify them as a military target.

A limited strike on the cards?

Mr Carlin and Dr Hecker, the analysts who predicted war, have interpreted all of this as signs that Kim Jong Un has settled on actually pursuing a fight.

But most analysts disagree. Seong-Hyon Lee, from the George HW Bush Foundation for US-China relations, points out the country is due to reopen to foreign tourists next month, and it has also sold its own shells to Russia for war - something it could ill afford if it were preparing for the battlefields.

The ultimate deterrent, however, is that were the North to launch an attack, the US and South Korea armies are just so much more advanced.

"A general war could kill a lot of people in the South, but it would be the end of Kim Jong Un and his regime,"says Kookmim University's Mr Ward.

Instead, he and others warn the conditions are building for a smaller action.

"I'm much more concerned, in general, about a limited attack on South Korea… an attack of that sort would take aim at South Korean territory or military forces but be limited in scope," says analyst Ankit Panda, from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

This could even be in the form of shelling or attempted occupation of contested islands west of the Korean peninsula.

In 2010, the North struck the island of Yeonpyeong killing four South Korean soldiers, infuriating the South.

A similar provocation again could be done to test the South Korean's limits, analysts suggest, and to push the buttons of President Yoon Suk Yeol, a defiantly hawkish leader who has vowed to respond to a North Korean attack with punishment "multiple times more severe".

"North Korea may expect to draw out a disproportionate retaliatory attack from Seoul," says Mr Panda, something that might spark a broader escalation in fighting.

Playbook move for leverage

Others say war fears should also be put in the context of Kim's operating patterns.

"Looking at the history of North Korea, it has often used provocation to attract the attention of other countries when it wants to negotiate," says Seong-Hyon Lee.

The regime continues to suffer from economic sanctions and 2024 is an election year for its enemies - with the US presidential vote and South Korean legislature poll.

"This presents a good opportunity for Kim Jong Un to provoke," explains Dr Lee.

The current US administration under President Joe Biden - tied up with Ukraine and Gaza - hasn't paid North Korea much heed and Pyongyang has also typically had most engagement with Republican administrations.

Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump famously had a bromance in 2019 before the denuclearisation talks soured - and the North Korean leader may be waiting for the former US president to return to the White House, where he might weaken the alliance with South Korea and be open to dialogue again.

North Korea's closer friendship with Russia and continued economic support from China in the past year may have also boosted its audacity, analysts suggest. It's received technical help from Russia to achieve a long-term goal of launching its spy satellites and the two states had several high-profile meetings including a leaders summit last year.

Reuters

Kim travelled to Russia's leading space facility last November after which his regime was able to launch their satellite

"Much of what we're seeing is a result of broader North Korean confidence in its own capabilities and its geopolitical position given Russian, and to a lesser degree, Chinese support," says Mr Panda.

Domestic goals

And others say Kim Jong Un's behaviour is all aimed at stabilising his own regime.

"This appears to be an ideological adjustment for regime survival," argues Leif-Eric Easley, an associate professor of international studies at Ewha University in Seoul. "North Koreans are increasingly aware of their Communist country's failings compared to the South."

He suggests a policy focused on defining the enemy justifies Mr Kim's missile spending at a time where there are reports of starvation across the country.

Presenting the South as the enemy also makes it easier to resolve "cognitive dissonance at the heart" of the North's view on South Korea, points out Mr Ward.

"Previously it was an indelibly evil state that was supposed to be the object of unification with a hopelessly corrupting culture that should not be consumed under any circumstances but with people who need to be liberated from their evil government," says Mr Ward.

"Now the country and its culture can just be branded evil and that justifies the continued crackdown on South Korean culture."

The BBC last week published rare footage showing two North Korean teenagers sentenced to 12 years hard labour for watching K-dramas.

"He doesn't actually want a war - a huge gamble where he would have "nothing to gain and everything to lose", says Sokeel Park, from Liberty in North Korea, an NGO helping North Korean refugees.

His threats are instead aimed at cementing his new North and South policy, designed ultimately to shore up his power at home, he says.

While it's important for South Korea, the US and allies to prepare for the worst-case scenario, it is also worth a thorough examination of the internal situation in North Korea and the wider geopolitics, analysts say.

At the end of the day, the best way to find out what the North's leader is thinking is to engage with him, argues Dr Lee.

"The international community does not see the US talking to Kim Jong Un as surrendering to Kim Jong Un's threats. It is seen as a necessary means to achieve a goal," he says.

"If necessary, one should consider meeting with the leader of an enemy nation to reduce misjudgements and prevent war."

With reporting by Kelly Ng

BBC

12. North Korea signals readiness for war, and key ally China may be powerless to stop it

We must keep in mind that Kim marches to the beat of his own drummer.

North Korea signals readiness for war, and key ally China may be powerless to stop it

The Globe and Mail · by James Griffiths · January 22, 2024

North Korean officials run in Pyongyang's Kim Il Sung Square on Jan. 14, the first national sports day of the new year.Cha Song-ho/The Associated Press

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North Korea would not exist without China. In October, 1950, less than four months after dictator Kim Il Sung launched an invasion to forcibly unify the Korean Peninsula, his regime was on the verge of destruction. South Korean and United Nations forces had taken Pyongyang, and North Korea’s army was hemmed in.

Chinese leader Mao Zedong, unwilling to see the defeat of a fellow communist government and wary of sharing a border with a U.S. ally, decided to intervene. Hundreds of thousands of Chinese troops poured into North Korea and succeeded in pushing Pyongyang’s opponents back to the 38th parallel, where the war has been paused since 1953, though never officially ended.

Today, China remains North Korea’s most important trading partner and ally – the only country believed to have any major influence over current ruler Kim Jong Un.

So with North Korea apparently preparing – as some analysts believe – for another war, this time with potentially even more devastating consequences for both the Korean Peninsula and the rest of the world, those analysts are wondering if China can rein in its bellicose neighbour.

“The situation on the peninsula is now at an unprecedented stage of tension,” said Lü Chao, a professor at Liaoning University’s Institute of American and East Asian Studies. “It has reached the most serious confrontation since the end of the war.”

Last week, Mr. Kim announced that North Korea was abandoning the cause of peaceful unification and now regarded the South as its “primary foe.” Since the start of the year, Pyongyang has conducted multiple missile launches, including of a hypersonic missile capable of dodging some South Korean defences, and tested the country’s underwater nuclear weapons system.

Pyongyang said the latter test, on Jan. 19, was in response to the largest-ever joint military drills by the U.S., South Korea and Japan, which those countries argue are necessary to maintain readiness in the face of North Korean threats.

North Korea's state news agency released this footage on Jan. 14 of a ballistic missile, said to be solid-fuel and hypersonic, being launched at an unspecified location.KCNA via REUTERS

North Korea analysts Robert L. Carlin and Siegfried S. Hecker – neither of whom are known for alarmism – recently warned that Mr. Kim may have “made a strategic decision to go to war.”

“We do not know when or how Kim plans to pull the trigger, but the danger is already far beyond the routine warnings in Washington, Seoul and Tokyo about Pyongyang’s ‘provocations,’” they wrote this month.

Some experts doubt this assessment, pointing out that North Korea does not appear to be stockpiling weapons and is moving ahead with relaxing COVID-19 controls and reopening its borders to foreigners. Thomas Schafter, a former German ambassador to North Korea, wrote last week that Pyongyang’s increased aggression is likely preparation for a potential second Trump administration in the U.S., setting the stage to de-escalate next year and secure concessions from Washington.

During Donald Trump’s first term, he held three historic summits with Mr. Kim, and the two Koreas also moved toward rapprochement, though nothing concrete was achieved and that progress has unravelled since the changes of administration in both Washington and Seoul.

North Korea has subsequently moved closer to its traditional allies China and Russia, particularly the latter, with Mr. Kim travelling to the Russian Far East to meet with President Vladimir Putin and providing arms to support Russia’s war in Ukraine. Pyongyang said Sunday that Mr. Putin would travel to North Korea early this year, the first visit by a Russian leader in more than two decades.

Pranay Vaddi, the White House’s senior director for arms control, recently warned that the security threat from North Korea could “drastically” change over the coming decade as a result of increased co-operation with Russia.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un attends a 2019 ceremony in Pyongyang with Chinese President Xi Jinping.Yan Yan/Xinhua via AP

China also appears to be drawing closer to North Korea, with the two countries naming 2024 a “year of friendship,” and bilateral trade reaching its highest level since before the pandemic.

Top Chinese diplomat Liu Jianchao, speaking alongside North Korean envoy Ri Ryong Nam in Beijing last week, said China would work with North Korea “to carry forward our traditional friendship, deepen strategic communication, promote mutually beneficial co-operation, advance bilateral ties and to safeguard regional peace and stability.”

Chinese state media have largely blamed the recent increase in tensions on Seoul, pointing to President Yoon Suk Yeol’s hardline policy toward North Korea and greater military co-operation with Japan and the U.S. This month, Chinese Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin called for all sides to “exercise calm and restraint, refrain from fuelling tensions and avoid further escalation.”

“As a neighbouring country, China stands for keeping the peninsula peaceful and stable,” he said.

Indeed, unlike Russia, which might benefit from increased tensions in East Asia that distract the U.S. from the war in Ukraine, China stands to lose as much as anyone from a war between the Koreas. As in the 1950s, China could be pulled into a war on the peninsula, costing the country soldiers and resources that President Xi Jinping would prefer to focus elsewhere – such as a potential conflict over Taiwan.

“No one benefits from the outbreak of a hot war, this has always been China’s attitude,” said Prof. Lü, adding that a second Korean conflict could bring “unimaginable consequences” to all countries involved.

Bjorn Alexander Duben, a Northeast Asian studies specialist at Jilin University in northeastern China, told the South China Morning Post last month that “Beijing does not mind minor crises arising that keep the U.S. occupied, but it does not want deeper global instability – especially in light of China’s unfavourable economic situation.”

Propaganda at a Beijing mall on Jan. 17 calls for patriotism and unity between society and the military.Ng Han Guan/The Associated Press

What is unclear, however, is whether Beijing can actually prevent North Korea from launching a war if Pyongyang decides conflict is necessary.

Writing last year, Bruce Bennett, a senior researcher at the Rand Corporation, said there has been “considerable friction” between North Korea and China, and Pyongyang “has a history of defying Chinese influence.” After coming to power, Mr. Kim had both his uncle and half-brother killed; both men were seen as close to Beijing, and the latter, Kim Jong Nam, lived for years under Chinese protection.

China has considerable economic leverage over North Korea, but as with Western sanctions, this may not be enough to sway Pyongyang. At the height of the pandemic, North Korea cut itself off almost entirely from the rest of the world, which caused widespread misery among ordinary people, but did nothing to slow down Mr. Kim’s weapons programs.

If war does truly appear to be on the horizon, China may seek to make it clear to Mr. Kim that it will not bail him out as it did his grandfather. During a previous round of escalation at the start of the Trump administration, some Chinese military analysts suggested Beijing would not be obliged to defend its ally if North Korea used nuclear weapons, as this would breach a treaty between the two countries.

But that, too, may be an insufficient deterrent. In his speech last week, the North Korean leader said Pyongyang’s enemies were the ones pushing it toward war – and promised to “inflict an unimaginably crushing defeat” on them if forced to do so.

With files from Alexandra Li and Reuters

The Globe and Mail · by James Griffiths · January 22, 2024

13. South Korea’s ban on praising the North is ridiculous

Yes. The national security law has a lot wrong with it.

South Korea’s ban on praising the North is ridiculous

The government imprisons a dotty fan of Kim Jong Un

Jan 22nd 2024

The Economist

Making someone do porridge (or “eat rice and beans”, to use the Korean expression) for expressing their political views is expected of despotic North Korea. It is not generally associated with its prosperous, democratic southern neighbour. Yet Lee Yoon-seop, a South Korean poet, is currently languishing in prison for just this. The 68-year-old was sentenced to 14 months in November for threatening South Korea’s “existence and security”. His crime? Writing a poem in praise of the North.

The law used to prosecute Mr Lee, the National Security Act (NSA), is designed to protect South Korea from spies and traitors. But it also bans South Koreans from visiting or making contact with the North, reading or watching North Korean media or saying anything good about Kim Jong Un’s tyrannical regime. Though South Korea replaced its former military dictatorship with a democracy in 1987, such restrictions on free speech show that some of the generals’ autocratic tendencies endure.

Every country has counter-espionage laws. And if South Korea’s are rather strict, no wonder. Its capital city is in missile range of a nuclear-armed despot that calls it the “principal enemy”. The NSA was modelled on a law designed to quash pro-independence activities during Japan’s occupation of Korea from 1910 to 1945. Since 2003 there have on average been more than 60 NSA prosecutions a year, often for pretty clear espionage cases. A businessman and an army officer were arrested for allegedly selling military secrets to North Korea. Soldiers in the South have been prosecuted under the act for endangering morale by distributing pro-North propaganda.

But the NSA is too often used to prosecute satirists and raid the homes and offices of leftists. Some cases have been ridiculous. Kim Myeong-soo, a PhD student, received six months in prison and a two-year suspended sentence for selling books on North Korea that were widely available in public libraries. A South Korean woman was given a two-year sentence, suspended for four years, for owning recordings of 14 North Korean songs.

This is not Mr Lee’s first offence. But the claim that the sexagenarian posed a threat to South Korea is absurd. His ode was published on a North Korean website. Access to such sites is banned by the NSA and forbidden from a South Korean IP address. More important, it is hard to imagine Mr Lee’s childish verse persuading anyone of the glories of North Korea’s leader. It consists of a list of South Korean problems that Mr Kim, in the poet’s view, would instantly solve given the chance.

Mr Lee’s real offence appears to have been believing his own nonsense. By contrast, police decided not to investigate a man under the draconian law for selling shirts with a smiling Mr Kim and the slogan “Walk a flowery path, comrade”. That was OK, officials said, because he was selling them to make a buck.

Worse, the issue points to a broader authoritarian tendency in the South. Its president, Yoon Suk-yeol, often demonises his political opponents by calling them “anti-state forces”, a phrase inspired by the NSA. Unfavourable press coverage is routinely labelled “fake news” and the offices of offending outlets have been raided. The administration and its allies have sued more press outfits for defamation—which in South Korea can be a crime even when the offending words are manifestly true—in Mr Yoon’s first 18 months in office than any of its three predecessors did during their terms.

Yet even a more liberal government would be unlikely to remove the NSA’s illiberal clauses. No administration has made a serious attempt to address it in 20 years. There is no significant political support for scrapping the law, point out Steven Denney and Christopher Green of Leiden University. The current administration at least flirted with allowing South Koreans access to North Korean media, but recently abandoned the idea. The opposing Democratic Party is no more liberal; it previously tried to pass a similar law criminalising praise of Japanese colonial rule.

Mr Yoon talks often about South Korea’s democratic values. They are at the heart of his pitch for the country to be a strategic link between East and West, developed and developing countries. For that reason alone he should take them more seriously. South Korea is undoubtedly a democracy, but not a terribly liberal one so long as it locks up old men for their dotty opinions. Reforming the NSA would be a better rebuttal to the sentiment Mr Lee expressed than banning it.■

Read more from Banyan, our columnist on Asia:

How Hindu is India’s foreign policy? (Jan 22nd)

The Economist

14. Putin's visit to N. Korea imminent

Putin's visit to N. Korea imminent

The Korea Times · January 22, 2024

Strategic approach needed to tackle multiple tasks

Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed his willingness to visit Pyongyang soon, North Korea’s state media reported Sunday. The North’s official Korean Central News Agency said Putin accepted an invitation from North Korean leader Kim Jong-un during a meeting with visiting North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui on Jan. 16.

Putin’s envisioned visit would be his first since his meeting with the late Kim Jong-il, the father of the current North Korean leader Kim, on July 19, 2000, during a summit in Pyongyang. As Putin is set to brace for a presidential election on March 17, his visit will be made at an “appropriate time” after the election. KCNA quoted Choe as saying, “President Putin extended his deep appreciation to President of State Affairs Kim Jong-un’s invitation to visit Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) at a convenient time. We are ready to welcome (President Putin) with all our heart,” the KCNA said.

The scheduled visit is raising concerns as it coincides with a significant thaw in military relations between the two isolated nations. Tensions on the Korean Peninsula are escalating, with North Korea increasing intimidation tactics against South Korea. The upcoming visit by Putin could potentially further fuel Pyongyang's hostile stance.

Military relations between Pyongyang and Moscow have been relatively subdued since the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1990s. However, recent developments suggest a shift, sparked by Russia's prolonged conflict with Ukraine. North Korea is reported to have supplied significant numbers of artillery and ammunition to Russia, forging strong military relations with Moscow. In return, the North was allegedly supposed to receive state-of-the-art technologies needed to produce cutting-edge missiles, including inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). Yet, instead of military support, Russia allegedly offered energy and grain to the North.

The North has not succeeded in obtaining military assistance from Russia, primarily because Moscow is unwilling to share advanced military technology with the North. “This is the reason why Putin expressed a willingness to visit the North instead of offering such military assistance,” said Cho Han-bum, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, in an interview with a KBS radio, Sunday.

This indicates that Russia is aiming to keep a measured distance from North Korea while simultaneously exploring opportunities to strengthen its relations with South Korea. In fact, Russian Ambassador to Korea Georgy Zinoviev said during an exclusive interview with The Korea Times that South Korea is the “most favorable” among “unfavorable nations.” He emphasized the importance of restoring normal operations for Korean companies in Russia, leveraging the positive reception that Russian consumers have toward Korean products.

Nevertheless, the growing rapport between the two autocratic states is expected to gain momentum, prompting China to pursue even closer ties with North Korea.

The Yoon Suk Yeol administration needs to resolutely deal with potential military provocations by the North. Yet, on the other hand, it needs to employ more prudent and flexible diplomatic approaches to cope with the growing challenges involving multiple nations.

Russia and China serve as patrons of the isolated North, making it essential to employ skillful tactics to address issues involving them. This is crucial in preventing the North from engaging in further hostile provocations. Urgent diplomatic efforts are necessary to comprehensively ease tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

Since the dissolution of the former Soviet regime, Seoul and Moscow have successfully enhanced their partnership, particularly in the economic sphere. It is crucial to leverage Russia's influence to build stronger connections with North Korea. To achieve this, exploring potential avenues to restore Seoul-Moscow relations through close consultations and dialogue is essential.

The Korea Times · January 22, 2024

15. Underwear boss accused of illegal North Korea remittance to be released on bail

Tuesday

January 23, 2024

dictionary + A - A

Published: 23 Jan. 2024, 18:22

Underwear boss accused of illegal North Korea remittance to be released on bail

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2024-01-23/national/socialAffairs/Underwear-boss-accused-of-illegal-North-Korea-remittance-to-be-released-on-bail/1965223

Former Ssangbangwool CEO Kim Seong-tae arrives at Incheon International Airport on Jan. 17, 2023 after being arrested in Thailand where he had stayed for eight months. [YONHAP]

Former underwear company owner Kim Seong-tae, who has been on trial for an illegal remittance to North Korea, was released on bail after spending 11 months in custody.

The Suwon District Court approved his release on Tuesday with the condition of posting a 100 million won ($74,600) bail and wearing a tracking device at all times.

Kim was initially arrested on Feb. 3, 2023, following indictments by the prosecutors' office for charges including embezzlement, breach of trust, and violating the foreign exchange transaction act.

The former CEO of the underwear company Ssangbangwool is accused of embezzling 53.8 billion won from five unlisted subsidiaries.

However, Kim is more widely recognized for standing trial regarding the $8 million that he had given to North Korea in 2019.

According to the prosecutors' office, Kim made the payment to facilitate the visit of Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung to North Korea.

Lee, who was the Gyeonggi governor at the time, was excluded from then President Moon Jae-in's entourage, which included Seoul Mayor Park Won-soon and Gangwon governor Choi Moon-soon, during a visit to Pyongyang to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

Kim had requested bail on Dec. 20, citing no risk of flight or evidence tampering.

BY LEE HO-JEONG [lee.hojeong@joongang.co.kr]

16. S. Korean diplomatic missions under fire for wrong depiction of flag, traditional clothing

Yes quality control is a must especially when using local contractors to produce content. These are likely some local graphic designer's artistic interpretations of Korean symbols..

S. Korean diplomatic missions under fire for wrong depiction of flag, traditional clothing | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Yi Wonju · January 23, 2024

SEOUL, Jan. 23 (Yonhap) -- Two South Korean diplomatic missions came under criticism Tuesday after they posted wrong images of the national flag and traditional clothing on their social networking services.

Earlier in the day, Seo Kyoung-duk, a Sungshin Women's University professor well known for his efforts to promote Korean interests abroad, took issue with a Facebook post by the South Korean Embassy in the Czech Republic that depicted a graphic image of a woman dressed in what appears to be Chinese traditional attire.

Seo noted that the South Korean consulate general in Milan also posted on its Facebook page an image of the South Korean national flag with a red circle in the middle akin to the symbol on the Japanese flag.

The consulate general has deleted the post, a foreign ministry official told reporters on condition of anonymity.

"We will inform all diplomatic missions to pay special attention to anything that can cause even the slightest misunderstanding," he said.

This composite photo, captured from the Facebook page of Seo Kyoung-duk, a professor at Sungshin Women's University, on Jan. 23, 2024, shows a graphic image of a woman dressed in what appears to be Chinese traditional attire (L) and an image of the South Korean national flag with a red circle in the middle akin to the Japanese flag. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

julesyi@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Yi Wonju · January 23, 2024

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

Access NSS HERE

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