Quotes of the Day:
"Education is the most powerful weapon which you can use to change the world."
- Nelson Mandela
"While there is a chance of the world getting through its troubles, I hold that a reasonable man has to behave as though he were sure of it. If at the end your cheerfulness in not justified, at any rate you will have been cheerful."
- H. G. Wells
"If you know how to read, you have a complete education about life, then you know how to vote within a democracy. But if you don't know how to read, you don't know how to decide. That's the great thing about our country - we're a democracy of readers, and we should keep it that way."
- Ray Bradbury
1. N.K. envoy claims recent weapons tests do not pose threat to neighboring countries
2. North Korea promises more weapons tests after firing four missiles this week
3. N. Korea confirms missile tests, leader Kim visits munitions factory
4. Lee denounces N.K. missile tests for dividing public ahead of election
5. North Korea Conducts Its Sixth Round of Missile Tests This Month
6. Victor Cha says South Korea refused to join the Quad
7. Why South Korea’s Presidential Election Matters to the U.S.
8. Activist indicted for sending anti-regime leaflets to North Korea
9. Unchecked And Unaffected: North Korea’s Nuclear Capability Marches On – Analysis
10. North Korea moved up dates of missile launches for strategic reasons
11. North Korea announces severe punishments for international callers in China-North Korea border region
12. North Korea plans to celebrate Kim Jong Il and Kim Il Sung’s birthdays in one big military parade
13. Fiery North Korean Defector Charged Under New Propaganda Law
14. North Korea missile tests: What does Kim Jong-un want?
1. N.K. envoy claims recent weapons tests do not pose threat to neighboring countries
Whew. I feel better now knowing this. This must make north Korea qualified to lead the UN conference on disarmament. (note sarcasm).
N.K. envoy claims recent weapons tests do not pose threat to neighboring countries | Yonhap News Agency
SEOUL, Jan. 28 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's top envoy in Geneva has claimed the recent series of weapons tests by the communist state do not pose any threat to its neighbors and called on the United States to permanently end military exercises with South Korea, its foreign ministry said Friday.
Ambassador Han Tae-song made the remarks in a speech during the U.N. Conference on Disarmament in Geneva on Tuesday, amid renewed security concerns over Pyongyang's continued test-firings of missiles this month.
"The recent test fire of the new-type weapons was part of activities for carrying out the medium- and long-term plan for the development of defense science, and it does not pose any threat or damage to the security of the neighboring countries and the region," Han was quoted by the ministry as saying.
The ambassador then called on the U.S. to withdraw its "hostile policy" and "double standards" toward the North and "permanently end the offensive military exercises and the deployment of various nuclear strategic assets" in and around the Korean peninsula.
The North has been ratcheting up tensions with a series of missile launches, including the tests of its self-proclaimed hypersonic missiles on Jan. 5 and 11, amid a protracted deadlock in its nuclear negotiations with Washington.
Both Seoul and Washington expressed concerns over the launches and reiterated calls for Pyongyang to return to dialogue.
Han also used the speech to accuse the U.S. of threatening the North through "unprecedented vicious hostile policy and constant nuclear blackmail."
"Therefore, its accusation of the DPRK's self-defensive deterrent as a "threat" is an intolerable provocation, an open act of double standard and a flagrant violation of sovereignty," the ambassador said.
DPRK stands for the North's official name, Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
sshluck@yna.co.kr
(END)
2. North Korea promises more weapons tests after firing four missiles this week
But the nK envoy to the UN says they are not a threat to its neighbors.
North Korea promises more weapons tests after firing four missiles this week
A North Korean missile is launched in this image released by the state-run Korean Central News Agency, Friday, Jan. 28, 2022. (KCNA)
CAMP HUMPHREYS, South Korea — North Korea’s state-run news agency on Friday said the regime successfully test-fired four missiles this week and pledged to “keep developing powerful warheads.”
“The practical combat performance of the long-range cruise missile system would hold a reliable share in boosting the war deterrence of the country,” the Korean Central News Agency reported.
North Korea launched two “tactical guided” missiles that struck an island target Thursday, its sixth round of weapons tests so far this month. It fired two cruise missiles on Tuesday, according to KCNA.
South Korea’s Ministry of National Defense reported Thursday’s tests were short-range ballistic missiles that are prohibited by the U.N. Security Council.
South Korea’s military estimated those missiles flew a maximum 118 miles at an altitude of 12 miles, specifications that are below a previous ballistic missile test conducted Jan. 17. The military did not release detailed information on Tuesday’s cruise missiles.
U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, which oversees all U.S. forces in the Pacific, said it was aware of North Korea's missile launches and was "consulting closely with our allies and partners."
"While we have assessed that this event does not pose an immediate threat to U.S. personnel or territory, or to our allies, the recent series of [North Korean] ballistic missile tests highlight the destabilizing impact of the ... illicit weapons program," the command said in a statement on Wednesday.
The commander of U.S. Forces Korea, Army Gen. Paul LaCamera, met following the launches with the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, South Korean air force Gen. Won In-choul, according to local media reports.
A North Korean missile appears to hit its island target in this image released by the state-run Korean Central News Agency, Friday, Jan. 28, 2022. (KCNA)
A North Korean missile is launched in this image released by the state-run Korean Central News Agency, Friday, Jan. 28, 2022. (KCNA)
A North Korean missile is launched in this image released by the state-run Korean Central News Agency, Friday, Jan. 28, 2022. (KCNA)
LaCamera "routinely meets with Gen. Won,” but their discussions are confidential “to maintain operational security, candor, and maintain trust,” USFK spokesman Col. Lee Peters told Stars and Stripes in an email to Stars and Stripes on Friday
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was not reported to have attended the missile tests. In a separate report, KCNA said he visited a munitions factory that was producing a “major weapon system.”
The series of tests comes after KCNA called for the immediate bolstering of North Korea’s military capabilities to confront “hostile moves” by the United States. The propaganda outlet on Jan. 19 echoed the regime’s claim that its weapons program is purely for defensive purposes and is being developed in “preparation for a long-term confrontation with the U.S. imperialists.”
U.S.-North Korean relations nose-dived this month after the U.S. Treasury Department slapped sanctions on six North Koreans, a Russian and a Russian firm suspected of aiding Pyongyang’s weapons program. U.N. representatives from the U.S., Albania, Brazil, France, Ireland, Japan, the United Arab Emirates and the United Kingdom also condemned this month’s launches.
“[North Korea’s] unlawful behavior is a threat to international peace and security,” said a joint statement issued Jan. 20. “These launches demonstrate the regime’s determination to pursue weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile programs at all costs, including at the expense of its own people.”
Meanwhile, the U.S. on Wednesday signaled its willingness to negotiate with North Korea without preconditions.
“We have made it very clear to Pyongyang: We will go anywhere, we will talk about anything, there are no reservations we have,” Mark Lambert, deputy assistant secretary of state for Japan and South Korea, said during a panel discussion hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “We have to have a serious discussion about the denuclearization of North Korea, and if North Korea is willing to do that, all sorts of promising things can happen.”
David Choi
3. N. Korea confirms missile tests, leader Kim visits munitions factory
Kim Jong-un is strutting around in his long black leather coat making him look like the evil character he is.
(3rd LD) N. Korea confirms missile tests, leader Kim visits munitions factory | Yonhap News Agency
(ATTN: ADDS comments from South Korean, U.S. officials at bottom; RECASTS lead)
By Choi Soo-hyang
SEOUL, Jan. 28 (Yonhap) -- North Korea on Friday confirmed this week's two rounds of weapons tests involving long-range cruise missiles and surface-to-surface tactical guided missiles, while leader Kim Jong-un publicly visited a munitions factory for the first time in years.
On Thursday, South Korea's military said the North fired what appeared to be two short-range ballistic missiles toward the East Sea, marking its sixth such launch this month. The latest saber-rattling came just two days after Pyongyang launched two apparent cruise missiles from an inland area.
"The Academy of Defense Science of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea conducted the test-fire for updating long-range cruise missile system and the test-fire for confirming the power of conventional warhead for surface-to-surface tactical guided missile on Tuesday and Thursday respectively," the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said, referring to the North by its official name.
Leader Kim Jong-un did not attend the latest firings.
Kim instead was at a munitions factory "producing a major weapons system," accompanied by his influential sister, Kim Yo-jong, and a senior party official, Jo Yong-won.
"He highly appreciated the factory effecting collective innovation and leaping progress in producing major weapons to implement the Party's decisions," the KCNA said in a separate report.
Officials at the factory cherished "the unwavering will" of the North Korean leader "who smashes with his bold pluck the challenges of the U.S. imperialists and their vassal forces that try to violate in every direction our Republic's right to self-defense."
The KCNA did not provide further details regarding when the visit was made, but the North's state media usually reports on Kim's activities a day later.
It's the first time in years for the North's state media to report on Kim's visit to a munitions factory. Kim inspected machine plants that are known as the North's major weapons production sites in June 2019, months after his failed summit with then U.S. President Donald Trump.
The North's state media released photos of Kim's visit to the plant but blurred the faces of officials there apparently due to security reasons.
Tuesday's cruise missiles flew for 9,137 seconds and hit the target island 1,800 km away, according to the KNCA.
When the North conducted its last known cruise missile test in September last year, the projectiles traveled 1,500 km for 7,580 seconds.
"The practical combat performance of the long-range cruise missile system would hold a reliable share in boosting the war deterrence of the country," the KCNA said.
The subsequent test of what appeared to be its variant of Russia's Iskander, or KN-23, on Thursday was aimed at "confirming the power of conventional warhead" for the surface-to-surface tactical guided missile, the state media said.
According to the South Korean military, the latest missiles, launched from near the eastern coastal city of Hamhung, flew about 190 km at a top altitude of 20 km at a five-minute interval.
"The Academy of Defense Science clarified that the missile warhead institute under it will keep developing powerful warheads capable of performing combat function and mission," the report said.
North Korea has been ratcheting up tensions on the Korean Peninsula with a series of missile tests since the start of the year, including two rounds of what it called a hypersonic missile.
Amid an impasse in nuclear negotiations with the U.S., Pyongyang said last week it may consider lifting its yearslong self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and long-range ballistic missile tests.
South Korea has expressed its regret over the North's recent missile launches and urged Pyongyang to return to dialogue.
"The unification ministry ... has deep regrets and concerns over North Korea's consecutive missile launches," Cha Duck-chul, the ministry's deputy spokesman, told a regular press briefing. "We will continue efforts to keep the situation on the Korean Peninsula under peaceful and stable control."
In Washington, U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price called the launches "a priority challenge for the United States," and reiterated it's ready for talks with North Korea.
"We have yet to receive a substantive response," Price said Thursday. "It is up to the DPRK to decide if they want to engage constructively."
scaaet@yna.co.kr
(END)
4. Lee denounces N.K. missile tests for dividing public ahead of election
The question is how will this spate of missile tests affect the ROK presidential elections? Which candidate will these actions benefit? And a real interesting question is which candidate does Kim favor?
Lee denounces N.K. missile tests for dividing public ahead of election | Yonhap News Agency
SEOUL, Jan. 28 (Yonhap) -- Ruling party presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung said Friday he "strongly denounces" North Korea's recent missile launches as an act that divides public opinion in South Korea ahead of the presidential election.
Lee of the liberal Democratic Party made the remark during a visit to the 2nd Marine Division in Gimpo, northwest of Seoul, referring to the North's six missile tests since the start of the year.
"I think it is very regrettable and strongly denounce the act of dividing public opinion and causing instability on the Korean Peninsula with intensive missile launches ahead of the Republic of Korea's presidential election," he said.
Lee's open condemnations of North Korea's weapons tests have been seen as an effort to distance himself from the dovish Moon Jae-in government and improve his chances in the March 9 election.
He repeated his call on other presidential candidates to join him in drawing up a declaration urging the North to stop all actions raising tensions on the peninsula, stop interfering in the election and work to resume dialogue for peace and stability on the peninsula.
Lee also announced a set of campaign pledges targeting the Marine Corps, including a plan to separate the Marine Corps from the Navy.
"I will significantly strengthen the Marine Corps' fighting power and independence and help maximize its ability to conduct landing operations, which is its intrinsic duty," he said.
hague@yna.co.kr
(END)
5. North Korea Conducts Its Sixth Round of Missile Tests This Month
We should keep in mind that Kim is conducting a dual track strategy - political warfare and preparation of warfighting capabilities. And those two tracks are mutually supporting and reinforcing.
Conclusion:
Drawing more attention from the U.S. could definitely be one of the intentions of North Korea’s missile launches. However, what should be emphasized more than any diplomatic rationale is that North Korea seems to be faithfully abiding by its five-year plan to develop and modernize its military and missile capabilities.
North Korea Conducts Its Sixth Round of Missile Tests This Month
Is North Korea trying to draw attention from the U.S. by testing missiles?
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North Korea fired two suspected short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM) off its east coast on Thursday. according to the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff (JSC). Today’s test – North Korea’s sixth test this month – came two days after it tested two cruise missiles.
The suspected SRBMs flew about 190 km with an apogee of 20 km from near Hamhung city around 8:00 a.m. Korea Standard Time (KST), JSC said. Detailed information on the performance and capacity of the missiles is expected to be announced on Friday by North Korea’s state media.
Based on the JCS’s brief information on the performance of the SRBMs, North Korea might have launched an improved model of the KN-23 SRBM.
Seoul’s National Security Council (NSC) held an emergency meeting hours after the North’s missile launches. Despite a flurry of the North’s SRBM tests, however, it again stuck to expressing “extreme regret” over North Korea’s latest missile test, showing Seoul has few options for reacting to North Korea’s missile launches. The U.S. State Department also delivered predictable comments on the test, saying it “condemns” North Korea’s ballistic missile launches, which are a “violation” of UNSC resolutions and “pose a threat” to North Korea’s neighbors and the international community.
Through a series of tests involving hypersonic missiles, SRBMs, and cruise missiles, North Korea has test-fired 10 individual missiles so far this month, the most individual missiles tested in a month. North Korea’s previous record was set in March 2020, when it tested nine individual missiles. The North has noticeably ramped up the frequency of missile tests in the wake of the “no deal” Hanoi summit in February 2019. Despite the United States’ recent sanctions over the country’s SRBM tests, North Korea will keep testing missiles as Kim Jong Un seeks to show his strong military might on the birth anniversaries of Kim Jong Il (February 16) and Kim Il Sung (April 15), the current North Korean leader’s father and grandfather, respectively. North Korea usually unveils an improved model of its ballistic missiles or advanced weapons at such events.
North Korea has been off of the United States’ top priority list since U.S. President Joe Biden took office last year. Pyongyang may want to draw more attention from the U.S. this year, as Washington’s focus has been completely transferred to the potential flashpoints of Ukraine and Taiwan to deter growing leverage and hegemony of Russia and China.
However, Pyongyang’s recently emphasized that its missile tests are for “self-defense,” not for targeting certain countries, while criticizing the “double standard” on the military activities of the two Koreas. North Korea’s missile tests seem to have been conducted under its “five-year plan to develop the defense science and weapon systems” as introduced at the Eighth Party Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK). With this, more and more improved models of current North Korea’s missile programs are expected to be showcased this year.
“It is a warning to the Biden administration as it grapples with an aggressive Russia, that North Korea, too, can cause it sleepless nights,” Lee Sung-yoon, a professor in the Fletcher School at Tufts University, told The Diplomat. “Each missile blast is a reminder to the U.S. that an aggressive U.S. response to Russian moves in Ukraine or China’s moves in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea will invite only bigger problems from Pyongyang tailor-made for Washington.”
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After the failed Hanoi summit with then-U.S. President Donald Trump, Kim said that he no longer felt no bound by his self-moratorium on nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) tests. This stance was reiterated by the North’s Foreign Affairs Ministry in mid-January of this year, right after the U.S. imposed sanctions on six North Korean individuals who are involved in the country’s ballistic missile and weapons of mass destruction (WMD) development. Although its missile test on January 14 appeared to have been conducted spontaneously as a response to the U.S. sanctions, the other missile tests this month apparently followed Kim’s clear hardline stance on the nuclear talks.
Since the COVID-19 pandemic began, North Korea has been taking draconian anti-pandemic measures to prevent the spread of the coronavirus into the country. Shutting down the border with China has caused the North’s economy to plummet while worsening its food shortages. However, this month North Korea resumed tentative trade with China, even though it is believed the country still does not have sufficient medical systems to cope with an unexpected COVID-19 crisis.
“The bigger story of January 2022 may be the resumption of rail traffic between North Korea and China because it suggests Pyongyang’s pandemic policies have entered a new phase.” Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, told The Diplomat.
“The shipments by train also show that Beijing is supportive of North Korea despite recent provocations and the Kim regime’s allocation of resources to nuclear and missile programs at the expense of domestic welfare,” Easley said.
Particularly if trade with China resumes and boosts the domestic economy, North Korea will likely test more missiles, perhaps ones that appeared at its military parades and exhibition last year or new powerful WMDs, to carry out its military modernization plan.
Drawing more attention from the U.S. could definitely be one of the intentions of North Korea’s missile launches. However, what should be emphasized more than any diplomatic rationale is that North Korea seems to be faithfully abiding by its five-year plan to develop and modernize its military and missile capabilities.
6. Victor Cha says South Korea refused to join the Quad
I had not heard that we made a formal invitation to join the Quad. I am skeptical that we would make the invitation because I think we would have known the response.
Victor Cha says South Korea refused to join the Quad
Posted January. 28, 2022 07:58,
Updated January. 28, 2022 07:58
Victor Cha says South Korea refused to join the Quad. January. 28, 2022 07:58. kimmin@donga.com,tree624@donga.com.
Victor Cha, a senior advisor of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), argued on Wednesday that South Korea was invited to join the Quad, a strategic forum to keep China in check in economy and trade, but that it refused.
In an editorial carried in Foreign Policy, Victor Cha wrote that he heard from reliable sources that South Korea was invited to the first Quad leaders’ summit held in March 2021, but refused to join. This is a categorical repudiation of the South Korean government’s official statement that the United States neither invited South Korea to join the Quad nor asked it to participate the Quad leaders’ meeting.
A Cheong Wa Dae official simply commented on Mr. Cha’s argument on Thursday that the South Korean government’s position has not changed, rebutting Cha’s argument and repeating its previous announcement that South Korea was never officially invited to join the Quad. A foreign policy expert on relations with the U.S. also reiterated that the United States understood South Korea’s delicate position between the U.S. and China and thus did not invite the South Korea to join the Quad. Choi Young-sam, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman, reaffirmed that South Korea did not receive direct invitation to the Quad from any one of four nations.
The Washington-based think tank forecasted on the day that the United States may ask South Korea to join the Quad. In its outline of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), the CSIS viewed that the U.S. government may include South Korea in the IPEF, which is an economic and strategic platform created to keep a China-led RCEP in check. The report predicted that the initial members of the IPEF will include the Republic of Korea, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore.
7. Why South Korea’s Presidential Election Matters to the U.S.
Again, I had not heard about an official or formal invitation to the ROK to join the Quad. But Dr. Cha is likely better informed than me.
Excerpt:
I have heard from reliable sources that South Korea was offered a spot at the table ahead of the first Quad summit in March 2021 and declined. The ruling party’s presidential candidate has remained silent on South Korea’s potential membership in the Quad. By contrast, I have heard opposition party leaders state openly that, under their government, Seoul would seek immediate Quad membership.
Whether Seoul does indeed decide to pursue Quad members matters greatly for the current U.S. administration because South Korea is a critical global supplier of high-demand products such as memory chips, electric batteries, and medical personal protective equipment. Having this important U.S. ally sit outside the coalition would impact supply chains related to the manufacture of COVID-19 vaccines, next-generation wireless networks, and climate change efforts.
Of course, there are many areas in which both sides would likely continue the current government’s work with the United States. Last year’s summit between U.S. President Joe Biden and Moon laid out a fantastic agenda for the alliance that would be uncontroversial under a conservative or progressive government.
The United States will work with whichever government comes into power this May as a good ally. But for the first time, this election will trigger a true national debate in South Korea on all these issues, making its outcome incredibly important for the United States and its policies in Asia.
Why South Korea’s Presidential Election Matters to the U.S.
An expert's point of view on a current event.
It’s the first in recent memory to feature substantive foreign-policy differences between the ruling and opposition camps.
By Victor Cha, a senior fellow in the Human Freedom Initiative at the George W. Bush Institute, a professor at Georgetown University, and the former National Security Council director for Asian affairs.
Lee Jae-myung (left), presidential election candidate for South Korea’s ruling Democratic Party, and Yoon Seok-youl (right), candidate for the main opposition People Power Party, attend a ceremony to mark the first stock trading day of the year at the Korea Exchange in Seoul on Jan. 3. KIM HONG-JI/POOL/AFP via Getty Images
Americans should pay close attention to South Korea’s upcoming presidential election on March 9, as it will have real ramifications for U.S. policy.
It will be the first South Korean election in recent memory where there are substantive foreign-policy differences between the ruling and opposition camps beyond their standard divergent views of North Korea. This time, the two sides also disagree on important alliance issues; energy and climate change issues; dealings with China; and whether South Korea should pursue a seat at the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (known as the Quad), composed of the United States, Japan, India, and Australia.
Which means whether Yoon Seok-youl, a former prosecutor general and lawyer representing the opposition conservative People Power Party, or Lee Jae-myung, a former governor of one of Korea’s provinces and candidate from the ruling progressive Democratic Party, wins in March will make a difference across the Indo-Pacific region.
In South Korea, the terms progressive and conservative are largely defined by attitudes toward North Korea, and approaches to North Korea are likely to mimic previous progressive and conservative administrations in Seoul. Progressives like current South Korean President Moon Jae-in favor engagement with the North, seeing Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program as the manifestation of the North Korean regime’s insecurity and political isolation. They are likely to support the advancement of a peace declaration and inter-Korean economic and humanitarian projects. Conservatives, meanwhile, hold a more skeptical view of North Korean intentions and take a tougher line.
Where the parties are paving new ground is in other foreign-policy and alliance matters, such as the question of whether to resume joint military exercises with the United States. Then-U.S. President Donald Trump unilaterally canceled these exercises after his 2018 Singapore summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. The progressive ruling party candidate hasn’t committed clearly to a resumption of such exercises, which might be a bid to avert triggering North Korean belligerence. The conservative party candidate has been more willing to entertain the prospect. This matters for the United States because the indefinite cessation of exercises reduces the readiness of U.S. and South Korean forces, which could undermine the credibility of deterrence on the peninsula and invite North Korean miscalculation.
Another issue is the transfer of wartime operational command authority to South Korea. Known as “OPCON transfer,” this would see South Korea exercise control over a war against North Korea rather than the United States, which speaks to South Korea’s growth and maturation into having one of the top militaries in the world today. The United States, while agreeing in principle to completing the OPCON transfer in a timely manner, wants to confirm that its ally meets the necessary operational requirements and conditions to effect the transfer. The ruling progressive party advocates an early handover, but doing so without adequate preparation could put the alliance in danger.
A third issue relates to energy and climate. The ruling party has upheld a phasing out of South Korea’s civil nuclear energy industry after the 2011 Fukushima disaster, whereas the opposition has opposed the current government’s plan. Nuclear energy will be critical for countries like South Korea to meet their carbon-zero targets by 2050. Before the Moon government’s policies, South Korea was emerging as one of the major nuclear energy players, with a major reactor sale to the United Arab Emirates. Should the opposition candidate win and reverse the nuclear phase-out, the country could once again become an important player. The United States is much better off with allies like South Korea shaping the global civil nuclear energy market’s standards for the safety and security of nuclear reactors and fuel, without which Russia and China would dominate the market.
There are also significant gaps between the parties on relations with China. The conservatives call for “strategic clarity” and policies based on democratic values, acknowledging China’s economic importance while remaining wary of its coercive tactics—such as the unofficial but biting sanctions Beijing imposed on South Korea after the United States in 2016 announced plans to install a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-ballistic missile defense system in Seongju, South Korea.
By contrast, the ruling progressives are more cautious about joining the Biden administration in shifting to strategic competition with China. They do not support the Biden administration’s diplomatic boycott of the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics and are wary of additional missile defense cooperation with the United States. They still see Beijing as critical to engagement with North Korea. Although memories of the THAAD sanctions don’t easily fade, the progressives believe they must be subjugated to a more nuanced balancing of immediate economic and security priorities.
Differences between the two sides are most obvious over the Quad. This was one of the Biden administration’s first and most significant Asia initiatives, bringing together the leaders of four major democracies—the United States, Japan, Australia, and India—to work on the most important issues of the day, including climate change, supply chain resiliency, and COVID-19 vaccines.
I have heard from reliable sources that South Korea was offered a spot at the table ahead of the first Quad summit in March 2021 and declined. The ruling party’s presidential candidate has remained silent on South Korea’s potential membership in the Quad. By contrast, I have heard opposition party leaders state openly that, under their government, Seoul would seek immediate Quad membership.
Whether Seoul does indeed decide to pursue Quad members matters greatly for the current U.S. administration because South Korea is a critical global supplier of high-demand products such as memory chips, electric batteries, and medical personal protective equipment. Having this important U.S. ally sit outside the coalition would impact supply chains related to the manufacture of COVID-19 vaccines, next-generation wireless networks, and climate change efforts.
Of course, there are many areas in which both sides would likely continue the current government’s work with the United States. Last year’s summit between U.S. President Joe Biden and Moon laid out a fantastic agenda for the alliance that would be uncontroversial under a conservative or progressive government.
The United States will work with whichever government comes into power this May as a good ally. But for the first time, this election will trigger a true national debate in South Korea on all these issues, making its outcome incredibly important for the United States and its policies in Asia.
Victor Cha is a senior fellow in the Human Freedom Initiative at the George W. Bush Institute, a professor at Georgetown University, and the former National Security Council director for Asian affairs. Twitter: @VictorDCha
8. Activist indicted for sending anti-regime leaflets to North Korea
A victory for Kim Yo-jong. Her personal blackmail diplomacy has been successful.
Activist indicted for sending anti-regime leaflets to North Korea
A group of defectors fly balloons containing anti-North Korean regime leaflets into the North from the border village of Paju, Gyeonggi Province, in this April 2016 file photo. Yonhap
Prosecutors have indicted a vocal North Korean defector and activist known for anti-Pyongyang leafleting on charges of attempting to send propaganda leaflets and other items by balloon into the North last year, sources said Friday.
Park Sang-hak, the head of Fighters for a Free North Korea, a North Korean defectors' group, is accused of having sent 10 balloons carrying propaganda leaflets and booklets as well as US$1 bills toward the North from the border provinces of Gyeonggi and Gangwon on two occasions in April.
Prosecutors are said to have indicted Park on charges of an attempted violation of the Development of Inter-Korean Relations Act as they could not confirm whether the balloons actually arrived in North Korea.
Under the revised law, which took effect in March, the act of sending propaganda leaflets across the border is banned and violators can face up to three years in prison or a maximum fine of 30 million won ($25,000).
Park has also been investigated on allegations that he the leaflets back in 2020, but was not indicted on the case as it was before the revised law went into effect.
He currently faces a separate indictment on charges of receiving illicit donations from 2015 to 2019. (Yonhap)
9. Unchecked And Unaffected: North Korea’s Nuclear Capability Marches On – Analysis
Is it a valid assumption that north Korea's provocations (and missile and nuclear programs) can be halted through negotiation? Can negotiations "check"north Korea's intentions, programs, and actions? Will providing concessions (e.g., lifting sanctions) lead to negotiations and will those negotiations bear fruit?
And the most important assumption of all is from this excerpt. Do we assume Kim is building nuclear weapons and missiles purely for deterrence? Or do we assume (as I assess) north Korea is developing its nuclear weapons and missile systems to support political warfare and for use in warfighting? While you can make a case both can be in support of deterrence but the real question is what is the ultimate objective of the regime. I would argue it is not simply to deter an attack but instead to dominate the peninsula. That is the position I recommend the ROK/US alliance operate from.
Excerpt:
By now it should be clear to anyone who has been studying the North Korean nuclear problem that the only way to resolve this issue is to first arrest capability growth by negotiating a freeze on the nuclear and missile programmes. To do so, Washington will have to make this a priority, build consensus among the allies, and invite Pyongyang to the table with a clear strategy in mind. Now may be a good time to do this for at least two reasons. One, North Korea has travelled a fair distance towards building nuclear deterrence and can afford to halt this development with some sense of confidence. Two, its economy is in dire straits owing to the pandemic and climatic disasters.
Unchecked And Unaffected: North Korea’s Nuclear Capability Marches On – Analysis
By Dr Manpreet Sethi*
The first month of 2022 is not yet over and North Korea has already conducted four missile test launches of varying ranges and capabilities. The fireworks appear to have started quite early this year—in 2021, Pyongyang’s missile testing began only in March, presumably to allow time for President Biden to settle into the White House.
The recent tests re-tested technologies first demonstrated last year. Two of these were hypersonic missiles and the other two were short-range rail-based tactical guided missiles; the launches reportedly tested their response time and alert posture. Interestingly, the hypersonic missile test, especially its flight control, was graphically described by the state-owned Korean Central News Agency (KCNA): “The missile made a 120 kilometres lateral movement in the flight distance of the hypersonic gliding warhead from the initial launch azimuth to the target azimuth and precisely hit a set target 700 kilometres away.” In addition, the missile demonstrated an ability to combine “multi-step glide jump flight and strong lateral manoeuvring.” North Korea’s first hypersonic boost-glide vehicle, Hwasong-8, flew only 200 km at an altitude of 60 km in its September 2021 test. New technological advances are evidently being made.
The types of missiles being tested by North Korea indicate several things. These hypersonic capabilities are intended to sow doubt in the the US and its East Asian allies about the efficacy of the deployed Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) missile defence systems. Speed and manoeuvring ability are being acquired to evade interception. Rail-based launches are meant to demonstrate new dimensions of mobility, and hence increasing the survivability of the arsenal. Taken together, the two technologies signal a potential erosion of US confidence in conducting a disarming first strike, and the inability of missile defences to assure complete security. In both cases, North Korea seems to be playing well by the deterrence playbook.
Meanwhile, the US continues to look at North Korea’s nuclear capabilities as a proliferation problem that it must roll-back and eliminate to denuclearise the country—and till that happens, it must defend against the threat. US responses are, therefore, of two types. One, continue to impose economic sanctions to check Pyongyang’s spending on military advancements. And two, seek technological solutions through the deployment of a mix of advanced offensive and defensive systems to protect the region and US mainland.
Unfortunately, neither of these responses has brought or will bring greater security to the region. Sanctions have proved to be of little consequence, especially when there is an escape valve as big as China that allows the pressure to be let off. Missile defences, too, will become porous over time as North Korea’s hypersonic delivery systems become more sophisticated. So it is that despite facing the harshest sanctions for decades now, North Korea’s stance has only hardened, not least because of a growing confidence in its capability. In fact, every day, week, month, and year lost in not being able to engage North Korea on its nuclear capability allows it to continue testing, perfecting, and mastering new technologies. On 19 January, Kim Jong-un presided over a Politburo meeting that hinted at developing “without delay more powerful physical means to definitely overpower the daily intensifying hostile moves of the United States.” This is an obvious reference to re-starting some of the longer-range missile tests that were suspended during the summit diplomacy of 2018-19.
By now it should be clear to anyone who has been studying the North Korean nuclear problem that the only way to resolve this issue is to first arrest capability growth by negotiating a freeze on the nuclear and missile programmes. To do so, Washington will have to make this a priority, build consensus among the allies, and invite Pyongyang to the table with a clear strategy in mind. Now may be a good time to do this for at least two reasons. One, North Korea has travelled a fair distance towards building nuclear deterrence and can afford to halt this development with some sense of confidence. Two, its economy is in dire straits owing to the pandemic and climatic disasters.
It is worth noting that in his address to the party plenum in December 2021, Kim stressed a push towards economic development. He indicated a keen desire to develop and modernise the country’s agricultural and food production practices. This may offer a starting point to launch interactions with the kingdom. Pyongyang may be ripe for negotiations on a phased lifting of economic sanctions and help on the COVID-19 front in exchange for suspension of nuclear and missile activities, including missile testing and fissile material build-up. These incentives must be clearly communicated to North Korean citizens, perhaps through South Korea’s help. Once the masses are given hope of a life that is different from the one they seem to be living today, things could slowly change.
Resolve the North Korean nuclear issue is undoubtedly for the long haul. But the more it is allowed to carry on unchecked down the road of nuclear capability, the more difficult it will be to get it to pedal back. It is imperative that the country be gradually pulled into some kind of international nuclear verification system since its proliferation history, and that of its friends and allies, is replete with leakages. As its economic miseries grow and temptations of nuclear lucre rise, any nuclear material and technology pilferage or leakage from Pyongyang to other state or non-state actors would have severe consequences for regional and global security.
*Dr Manpreet Sethi is Distinguished Fellow with the Centre for Air Power Studies (CAPS), New Delhi
10. North Korea moved up dates of missile launches for strategic reasons
Actions speak louder than words or words are strong when backed up by actions.
Two key points here. Yes it seems logical the north wants attention and priority from the US, but surely it recognizes that the US is distracted with other national security issues around the world. Rather than seeking attention for itself some speculate it is conducting these missile tests to create additional dilemmas for the US and this supports the activities of the other revisionist and rogue powers. This could be occurring because of direct collaboration or it could be done solely because Kim assesses that it is the right time to do this to cause problems for the US.
I do always fall back on one objective of these actions may always be to drive a wedge in the ROK/US alliance and Kim read the conditions and see the opportunity to do so.
Lastly, we should not forget that when faced with the extreme internal stressors, the regime may want to "externalize" its problems.
Excerpts:
However, the source said North Korean authorities want the US administration to intensify the North Korea issue with official position announcements or direct statements by high-ranking figures rather than “quiet actions.”
He further noted that public discontent in North Korea is reaching extremes as the border closure continues, and the authorities believe that because they cannot open the border right away, they can keep existing public sentiment stable only by aggravating tensions with the “US imperialists.”
North Korea moved up dates of missile launches for strategic reasons
North Korean authorities want the US to "intensify" the North Korea issue with official position announcements or direct statements by high-ranking figures rather than “quiet actions," a source claimed
North Korea recently carried out its fifth provocative missile launch of the year. According to a source in the country, Pyongyang moved up the dates of their launches for strategic reasons.
North Korean authorities fired off two projectiles on Tuesday morning, presumably cruise missiles. Prior to this, North Korea fired a ballistic missile from Yanggang Province towards the East Sea on Jan. 5 and launched a hypersonic missile on Jan. 11, with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in attendance.
North Korea also launched pairs of KN-23 and KN-24 short-range ballistic missiles on Jan. 14 and 17, respectively.
According to a high-ranking Daily NK source on Wednesday. North Korea compressed its launch frequency to conduct five launches in 20 days to get the US to move North Korea up in its list of diplomatic priorities.
As late as the end of last year, North Korean authorities had no plans to test so many missiles in so short a time, the source said.
That is to say, the authorities simply had plans to conduct test launches of strategic weapons timed with national holidays through the end of the year to “fulfill tasks” in the state’s five-year defense development plan.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un seen speaking at the Fourth Plenary Meeting of the Eighth Workers’ Party of Korea Central Committee. / Image: KCNA/Yonhap News
However, during the Fourth Plenary Meeting of the Eighth Central Committee late last year, Kim called for an end to the idea that “tests in the defense science sector” must be timed to national holidays, and ordered officials to prepare so that the nation can conduct tests of any kind whenever the need arises. The source said the defense industry sector and State Academy of Defense Sciences responded by accelerating efforts to meet this new demand.
In particular, with their concentrated barrage of missile tests, North Korean authorities reportedly hope to do two things: make North Korea a higher diplomatic priority in Washington, and resolve domestic problems with a diplomatic issue, be it conflict or dialogue.
North Korean authorities reportedly feel a sense of crisis about being put on Washington’s back burner as the Biden administration focuses on China and Russia.
In fact, US President Joe Biden made no mention of North Korea during his press conference on Jan. 19 to mark his first year in office.
The US responded to North Korea’s consecutive ballistic missile launches with unilateral sanctions on Jan. 12 and by convening a U.N. Security Council meeting on Jan. 20, but a vote on additional sanctions came to nothing as China asked to postpone it.
However, the source said North Korean authorities want the US administration to intensify the North Korea issue with official position announcements or direct statements by high-ranking figures rather than “quiet actions.”
He further noted that public discontent in North Korea is reaching extremes as the border closure continues, and the authorities believe that because they cannot open the border right away, they can keep existing public sentiment stable only by aggravating tensions with the “US imperialists.”
Seulkee Jang is one of Daily NK’s full-time journalists. Please direct any questions about her articles to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
11. North Korea announces severe punishments for international callers in China-North Korea border region
No surprise here. Information is an existential threat to the regime. But we should recognize that there is international connectivity that can be exploited.
North Korea announces severe punishments for international callers in China-North Korea border region
A sentry post on the Sino-North Korean border in Sakju County, North Pyongan Province. / Image: Daily NK
Tensions are rising among residents of the China-North Korea border region after the authorities announced they will severely punish those who talk on the phone with people in South Korea.
According to a Daily NK source in Yanggang Province on Thursday, the Ministry of State Security issued an order to its provincial branch in Yanggang Province calling for “merciless” treatment of people who use Chinese-made mobile phones.
This suggests North Korea has commenced working-level operations against “anti-socialist and non-socialist” behavior, the eradication of which was designated a “major task” by the Fourth Plenary Meeting of the Eighth Central Committee late last year.
That is to say, the authorities have called once again for tightened controls on Chinese-made mobile phones to stop behavior that “harms socialism,” including the leaking of information, defections, and illegal border crossings.
Accordingly, the Yanggang Province branch of the Ministry of State Security held an emergency meeting that day, attended by officials ranked section chief and above.
The meeting discussed the arrest and punishment of each and every Chinese-made mobile phone user who has managed to evade the authorities’ mop-up operation in the border region over the last several years.
In particular, the meeting called on officials to “unconditionally” send people caught talking with persons in South Korea to forced labor camps, along with their accomplices, regardless of the reason.
A view of Yanggang Province from the Sino-North Korean border. / Image: Daily NK
North Korea crafted legislation in 2015 against people who talk on the phone with the outside world, newly establishing the “crime of illegal international communications” (Article 222). Specifically, the law calls for up to a year in a labor brigade or up to five years in a labor camp for those caught engaging in illegal international communications.
Given how the authorities stressed their intention to punish offenders even harsher than what the law requires, it appears they have adopted a strategy of fear rather than inducement. As late as the end of last year, North Korea was pushing propaganda that if users of Chinese-made mobile phones turn themselves in, all would be forgiven.
The orders were immediately conveyed to the public. That is to say, in Hyesan, inminban (people’s unit) meetings were held from Jan. 16 with local security personnel and Ministry of State Security guidance officers in attendance.
The Ministry of State Security adopted a threatening tone, warning that they would never forgive the use of Chinese-made mobile phones and that people with foreign-made mobile phones were “clearly headed down the wrong path.” This strategy aims to spark fear by threatening to harshly punish perceived “reactionary elements.”
The source said given how the Ministry of State Security is reacting sensitively to the use of Chinese-made mobile phones from the start of the year, the authorities will apparently crack down hard on users this year, too.
He added that locals are avoiding using Chinese-made mobile phones because of the excess arrests, and that even remittance brokers are refraining from working out of fear.
12. North Korea plans to celebrate Kim Jong Il and Kim Il Sung’s birthdays in one big military parade
I love a parade. Who doesn't love a parade? Probably the Korean people in the north who have to suffer through the long preparation period for the parade. But at least one is better than two. Still, think of the resoruces expended for nothing priced for the cgood of the people or the nation.
North Korea plans to celebrate Kim Jong Il and Kim Il Sung’s birthdays in one big military parade
Despite economic difficulties, preparations for the military parade have continued since 2021 and are consuming a significant amount of resources
By Mun Dong Hui - 2022.01.28 11:47am
North Korea initially prepared for a military parade marking late national founder Kim Il Sung’s 110th birthday anniversary on Apr. 15, but the event has been expanded to include late North Korean leader Kim Jong Il’s 80th birthday anniversary on Feb. 16.
Due to economic and logistical reasons, North Korea appears intent to hold one extravagant event for both occasions, rather than two successive military parades.
“At first, military parade preparations were being made for the Day of the Sun [Kim Il Sung’s birthday],” a Daily NK source in North Korea reported on Jan. 25. “Recently, however, the General Political Bureau’s General Staff Department stated that because the Day of the Shining Star [Kim Jong Il’s birthday] is before the Day of the Sun, preparations are to be made for one military parade to serve both occasions.”
In short, an order was issued for the preparation of a military parade to celebrate both Kim Jong Il and Kim Il Sung’s birthdays at once given that they are not too far apart.
At the time, Daily NK’s source claimed that the military’s General Staff Department issued an order to the training departments of each service and military academies detailing “plans for recruiting and training soldiers to participate in a commemorative military parade to mark the 110th Day of the Sun.”
Based on new information Daily NK acquired from a source in the country, however, the military parade was recently changed to include a celebration of Kim Jong Il’s birthday as well.
“At the time [in 2021], it was not clear what the schedule or aims of the event were to be,” the source said. “The [recent] order handed down in regards to training for the military parade makes clear that the event will commemorate both leaders’ birthdays.”
Recently, North Korea designated the period between Feb. 16 and Apr. 25 the “greatest celebratory period of the nation.” This may be the reason why the military parade will commemorate the birthdays of both leaders.
North Korea is suffering from the economic difficulties caused by sanctions and the closure of its borders due to COVID-19. Despite these difficulties, preparations for the military parade have continued since 2021 and are consuming a significant amount of resources.
“A significant number of military personnel have been replaced due to accidents or disease during training for the military parade over such a long period of time,” the source said. “Soldiers are being discharged from the military for medical reasons such as disease, malnutrition, and lack of physical strength.
Soldiers marching during the Party Foundation Day military parade on Oct. 10, 2020. / Image: KCNA
“Compared to the past, the supply chain has taken a significant hit because of back-to-back military parades,” he further explained, adding, “There is a lack of the most basic of disinfection supplies, with soldiers being told to use salt on any wounds they suffer.”
North Korea not only lacks the time to host two military parades in close succession, but also faces the problem of having a limited number of military weapons to put on display.
These issues appear to have pushed the North Korean leadership to combine two military parades into one during the “celebratory period.”
Daily NK was unable to ascertain when exactly this military parade will be held.
Following the decision to hold one parade, North Korea is putting a great deal of effort in providing supplies to soldiers participating in the parade, despite a lack of resources.
“The Ministry of Defense’s logistics bureau supplied confectionaries to the logistics departments of each military unit in the parade after receiving packed rations from a confectionery factory,” the source said. “The state is also providing garments, ceremonial dress and innerwear, along with footwear and equipment for the parade.
“Some military units have been fed four times a day when they had night-time training,” he further reported, adding, “Although the authorities did not force people to donate supplies, military units have demanded that soldiers’ families donate money.”
The source also claimed that the upcoming military parade will be focused on “displaying North Korea’s power” and “revealing new weapons.”
“All branches of the military, plus the Strategic Force, military universities, and education institutions will be mobilized,” he explained, adding, “The leadership intends for new weapons to be placed in the parade grounds for a show of power.”
North Korea launched hypersonic missiles on Jan. 5 and Jan. 11, a ballistic missile on Jan. 14 and Jan. 17, and a cruise missile on Jan. 25.
North Korea may be expediting missile tests in order to showcase missiles that are nearly-complete at the military parade. This would suggest that the country is busily working to improve its negotiating position with the US.
Mun Dong Hui is one of Daily NK’s full-time journalists. Please direct any questions about his articles to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
13. Fiery North Korean Defector Charged Under New Propaganda Law
Not a good look for South Korea. And it is much more than leaflets.
Fiery North Korean Defector Charged Under New Propaganda Law
South Korea banned the spread of leaflets across the border last year. Park Sang-hak, an outspoken activist who defied the ban, was indicted in a first this week.
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Park Sang-hak at his office in Seoul. He is the first person to be indicted on charges of breaking a new law banning the spread of propaganda leaflets along the inter-Korean border.Credit...Chang W. Lee/The New York Times
By
Jan. 28, 2022, 12:54 a.m. ET
SEOUL — A North Korean defector has been indicted on charges of breaking a South Korean law banning the spread of propaganda leaflets along the inter-Korean border, prosecutors and lawyers said Friday.
Park Sang-hak is the first person to be indicted under the new law, which critics say puts a policy of engagement with North Korea above human rights.
For years, Mr. Park and others like him have launched balloons into North Korea loaded with propaganda leaflets urging North Koreans to rise up against their authoritarian leader, Kim Jong-un. Under the law, which went into effect last March, sending such leaflets was made a crime punishable by a fine or a prison term of up to three years.
Mr. Park defied the ban in April by launching 10 balloons carrying a half million leaflets. The police later raided his office and interrogated him. In July, they formally asked prosecutors to indict Mr. Park under the law, which President Moon Jae-in has vowed to strictly enforce.
Lee Hun, Mr. Park’s lawyer, said on Friday that he received a formal notice from prosecutors that Mr. Park had been indicted on Wednesday on charges of “attempting” to send the leaflets because investigators lacked evidence that the leaflets actually landed in the North.
A remnant from the Cold War, the leaflets have created tensions not only between the two Koreas but also between North Korean human rights activists and Mr. Moon’s government.
North Korea has called the leaflets an “intolerable provocation.” Mr. Moon’s government sponsored the new law after accusing activists of provoking the North unnecessarily.
The president’s conservative critics accused him of suppressing freedom of speech and aiding Mr. Kim’s totalitarian regime “at North Korea’s behest.”
One of Mr. Park’s leaflets, in which he calls Kim Jong-un, the leader of North Korea, a “devil who murdered his elder brother.”Credit...Chang W. Lee/The New York Times
“If an evil law is a law, send me to prison!” Mr. Park said on Friday. “Even if they send me to prison, my colleagues will continue to send leaflets.”
After Mr. Park launched the leaflets in April, Mr. Kim’s sister and spokeswoman, Kim Yo-jong, called him “dirty human scum” and warned of “consequences.”
About 33,800 North Koreans have fled to South Korea since the 1990s. Mr. Park, who fled in 1999, has stood out for his highly public campaign supporting North Korean human rights, although critics consider him theatrical.
His group, Fighters For Free North Korea, calls the ruling Kim family in Pyongyang womanizers and “dictatorial pigs,” and burns them in effigy during outdoor rallies in South Korea. Its leaflets also call Mr. Kim a “human butcher” who killed his uncle and half brother.
There has been no credible study on how many North Koreans read or react to the propaganda leaflets. Analysts say that leaflets are not as effective as radio broadcasts and flash drives smuggled across the Chinese border. But launching leaflets is perhaps the activists’ most visible campaign tactic.
Mr. Park has often invited media to his balloon-launching ceremonies, where the large hydrogen balloons waft across the world’s most heavily armed border. Once in North Korea, timer devices click, unfastening vinyl bundles. Leaflets, dollar bills, mini-Bibles and USB drives chock-full of content banned in the North fall out of the sky like snowflakes.
Mr. Kim keeps his people under a total information blackout in North Korea, blocking the internet and making sure all radio and TV sets receive his government’s propaganda broadcasts only. The government in Seoul said the balloons endanger people living on both sides of the border.
A leaflet done by Lee Min-bok, another North Korean defector and human rights activist.Credit...Chang W. Lee/The New York Times
In 2014, the North Korean military fired shells at balloons drifting across the border, but instead hit South Korean villages, prompting the South to return fire.
In a poll taken last May, 51 percent of the respondents in South Korea supported the new ban, while 37 percent said it violated freedom of speech. Among those living close to the border, the support rate was 57 to 60 percent. Cities and provinces near the border have also called for Mr. Park’s punishment.
When North Korea blew up in 2020 a liaison office on its side of the border where officials from both Koreas had worked together, it cited South Korea’s failure to implement an agreement banning leaflets and other propaganda warfare as the impetus. Mr. Moon’s government accelerated its efforts to push the anti-leaflet bill through Parliament after the liaison office was destroyed.
South Korea’s conservative opposition has noted a jarring contrast between Mr. Moon’s crackdown on leaflets and his restrained response when North Korea killed a South Korean fisheries official or when the country likened Mr. Moon to a “parrot” and “mongrel dog” that followed orders from the United States.
“President Moon seems to believe that the only way to keep peace on the Korean Peninsula is to do nothing that will disturb the Kim brother and sister in the North,” said Tae Yong-ho, a former North Korean diplomat who is now an opposition lawmaker in Seoul.
Mr. Park, who is set to go to trial in the coming weeks for violating the leaflet ban, has some harsh critics of his own, many of whom are also North Korean human rights activists.
Mr. Lee at his home in South Korea. He has criticized not only the new law banning propaganda leaflets, but also Mr. Park.Credit...Chang W. Lee/The New York Times
Lee Min-bok, another defector from North Korea, criticized not only the law but also Mr. Park, who he said jeopardized the entire balloon campaign by provoking both governments.
Mr. Lee started sending leaflets in 2006, before Mr. Park, and favored low-key operations that didn’t attract media attention. He launched leaflets that focused on providing news from outside North Korea, rather than criticizing the Kim regime.
“The extremely provocative language in Park Sang-hak’s leaflets has nothing to do with promoting North Korean human rights, but is tailored to please conservatives and provoke progressives in the South,” Mr. Lee said. “He wants to become a hero by going to prison for fighting this law.”
Mr. Park’s legal troubles precede Friday’s indictment. He is also on trial for breaking a law on collecting donations. In August, he was given a suspended eight-month prison term for beating a South Korean TV reporter who showed up at his home for an interview request.
Mr. Park has denied the allegations against him and dismissed his critics as “snakes” and “hypocrites.” He often points to an incident in 2011, when a man was arrested in South Korea on a charge of plotting to assassinate him with a poison needle at North Korea’s request.
“Kim Jong-un wants to kill me, and President Moon wants to send me to prison,” Mr. Park told reporters in May. “But they cannot stop us from telling facts and truth.”
Mr. Lee keeps bunches of leaflets in storage.Credit...Chang W. Lee/The New York Times
14. North Korea missile tests: What does Kim Jong-un want?
I know it is not fashionable but we need to consider Kim's long term objective to dominate the peninsula under the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State. Everything less than that is simply a supporting effort.
North Korea missile tests: What does Kim Jong-un want?
By Rupert Wingfield-Hayes
BBC News, Tokyo
Published
2 hours ago
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Image source, KCNA via Reuters
Image caption,
Kim Jong-un spends between a fifth and a quarter of North Korea's GDP on the military
North Korea's renewed flurry of missile tests have, so far, been met here in Tokyo with a bit of shrug.
It's all very different from August 2017 when Japan awoke to the sound of air raid sirens. Without warning North Korea had fired an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) over the top of Japan into the Pacific Ocean. It was an audacious act.
This time North Korea's missiles have all been short range, and have landed in the sea, well away from the Japanese coast. Kim Jong-un appears to be holding back, for now. But that could change if he doesn't get the result he wants.
So, what does Kim Jong-un want?
Speak to military analysts and they'll tell you these latest launches show North Korea is moving rapidly down the road to a full and effective nuclear deterrent.
"From my perspective it was predictable," says Professor Kim Dong Yup, a former South Korean naval commander.
"We get surprised because we underestimate North Korean technology and assume it is suffering at the moment. In fact, North Korea is definitely advancing its military capability faster than we assumed."
After the tests on 5 and 10 January, Pyongyang claimed it has successfully tested something called a "hypersonic glide vehicle" (HGV) and a "manoeuvrable re-entry vehicle" (MARV).
Why does that matter?
Because it means North Korea is developing technology that can defeat the costly and complex missile defence systems that America and Japan have been deploying across this region.
"It seems pretty clear that their aim is to develop weapons that can evade and complicate missile defences that are highly manoeuvrable and harder for the United States to pre-empt, let alone to detect," says Duyeon Kim at the Centre for a New American Century.
Professor Kim Dong Yup agrees: "Ultimately what the North is aiming to achieve is to debilitate the enemy's missile defence system.
"They want to have a deterrence system that is like a scorpion's tail."
A scorpion does use the sting in its tail to defend itself, but also to attack and kill its prey. So, which is it for North Korea?
Image source, Reuters
Image caption,
North Korean state media image of a hypersonic missile test in January
"North Korea's main purpose is not to attack but to defend themselves," says Professor Kim, adding that the country is trying "to secure a diversified deterrent capability".
This is a widely held view among the North Korea watching community.
And yet Pyongyang is very far beyond the point at which its conventional and nuclear capability has become an effective deterrent against attack from the South or from the US - both of which have repeatedly said that they harbour no ambitions to attack or destroy the North Korean regime.
So why does the ruler of this small, impoverished state continue to spend between a fifth and a quarter of its GDP on the military?
Ankit Panda at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace feels that one reason might be that contrary to what outsiders may feel, North Korea doesn't believe it has sufficient weapons to defend itself properly.
"So Kim Jong-un feels chronically insecure. I think he doesn't trust anybody, including China and Russia, and so might feel the need to build up his capability beyond what we might consider sufficient."
Others fiercely disagree.
Professor Brian R Myers at Dongseo University in the South Korean city of Busan says Pyongyang has a much more ambitious goal for its nuclear and missile programmes.
He believes North Korea's hope is to use its arsenal as leverage to negotiate a peace treaty with South Korea and a US withdrawal from the Korean peninsula. After that, he says, the North believes it will be free to subjugate the South.
Media caption,
Why does North Korea keep launching missiles?
In the short-term North Korea has another goal.
To thrive, even moderately, Pyongyang needs UN sanctions that were imposed because of its nuclear and missile programmes to be lifted. And to have any hope of that, it needs the US administration to engage in negotiations.
Historically, Pyongyang's way of attracting Washington's attention has been to create a crisis. And that is exactly what some experts think is happening again now.
"So ironically for me this is a very good sign," says Professor Kim Youngjun a member of South Korea's National Security Advisory Board.
"Kim Jong-un wants to maximise his missile tests before starting his peace initiative. So, he wants to push Joe Biden to start serious negotiations with a concrete road map."
If that's the case, Kim Jong-un may be disappointed. Firstly, President Joe Biden is very busy with another crisis right now, Ukraine.
And secondly, Mr Biden has none of his predecessor Donald Trump's enthusiasm for engaging with North Korea.
"The North Koreans are very good at putting themselves on the agenda and making themselves a priority," says Mr Panda.
But he adds: "Joe Biden has called Kim Jong-un a tyrant. I think he has very little to gain politically from being seen with Mr Kim. So, I do think what it would take for Joe Biden to really become invested, is a major crisis."
Image source, KCNA
Image caption,
North Korean state media images of a new cruise missile tested last year
If all of this sounds familiar, then that's because it is.
We saw it in 2010 when Pyongyang sank a South Korean navy corvette, the Cheonan, and then a few months later began bombarding one of South Korea's outlying islands.
We saw it again in 2017 when North Korea fired long range missiles over Japan and threatened to attack Guam. We may see something similar again in the coming months.
"I do think the possibility of returning to a crisis is very real," says Mr Panda.
"The North Koreans frankly want to be taken seriously by the US. It might be a small country. It might be a country Richard Nixon once famously called a fourth-rate pipsqueak.
"But they have nuclear weapons, and they want an American president to recognise that. Unfortunately, I think the North Koreans are not going to get that anytime soon."
15.
V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
