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Quotes of the Day:
“Truth is not what you want it to be; it is what it is, and you must bend to its power or live a lie.” – Miyamoto Musashi
“Three passions, simple but overwhelmingly strong, have governed my life: the longing for love, the search for knowledge, and unbearable pity for the suffering of mankind. These passions, like great winds, have blown me hither and thither, in a wayward course, over a deep ocean of anguish, reaching to the very verge of despair.”
~Bertrand Russell
"If we are to keep our democracy there must be one commandant: Thou shalt not ration justice."
– Justice Learned Hand
1. S. Korea's spy agency confirms Hamas' suspected use of N. Korean weapons
2. FM nominee stresses need to work with China while maintaining alliance with U.S.
3. N. Korea makes no mention of leader's 40th birthday
4. Kim Jong Un calls Kishida ‘Your Excellency’ on shelling day
5. Russia Acquires North Korean Missiles, Eyes Iranian Missiles
6. Russia is using North Korean missiles in Ukraine, US says. That’s bad news for Asia
7. Kim Jong-un's daughter on track to assume power as aunt fades from spotlight: analysts
8. A Bleak Outlook for Inter-Korean Relations in 2024
9. N. Korean leader calls for increased poultry production amid food shortages
10. South scraps maritime buffer zone after North fires artillery shells
11. Seoul declares maritime buffer zone with North ineffective
12. ＜Inside N. Korea＞ Government implements wage by more than 10 times (1) Wages increase for employees of state-run enterprises and government agencies
13. Life On The Frontline: Fear, Camaraderie On S. Korean Border Island
14. Selling Kim Jong-un T-shirt isn't national security crime: police
1. S. Korea's spy agency confirms Hamas' suspected use of N. Korean weapons
Of course they do. We all would know this if we just read Dr. Bruce Bechtol's research over the last decade +. His 2018 book, North Korean Military Proliferation in the Middle East and Africa: Enabling Violence and Instability notes the relationship with and support to Hamas. He and his co-author have another book nearly complete on the North Korea-Iran relationship which is really a key contributor to the problems in the Middle East though the north Korean role is too often overlooked or downplayed.
Surely the designation of north Korea as a state sponsor of terrorism must remain in place.
Country Reports on Terrorism 2019: Democratic People's Republic of Korea
https://www.state.gov/reports/country-reports-on-terrorism-2019/democratic-peoples-republic-of-korea/
State Sponsors of Terrorism
https://www.state.gov/state-sponsors-of-terrorism/
(LEAD) S. Korea's spy agency confirms Hamas' suspected use of N. Korean weapons | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · January 8, 2024
(ATTN: UPDATES with more details in paras 6, 13-15)
By Kim Soo-yeon
SEOUL, Jan. 8 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's spy agency on Monday confirmed suspicions that North Korean-made weapons are being used by the Hamas militant group in its war with Israel despite Pyongyang's repeated denial of its arms transactions.
Releasing a new photo of a North Korean rocket part, the National Intelligence Service (NIS) confirmed a Voice of America (VOA) report that Hamas fighters used an F-7 rocket-propelled grenade launcher manufactured in North Korea.
A photo included in the VOA report published Friday showed that the fuse of an F-7 grenade launcher, allegedly used by Hamas, had on it a combination of Korean characters and numbers, such as "비저-7류" and "시8-80-53."
Asked about the report, the NIS said its "assessment is the same as the VOA report."
"The fuse with the Korean characters is located in the mid-section of the North Korean-made F-7 rocket," the spy agency told Yonhap News Agency, while providing a photo of a disassembled F-7 grenade launcher.
In the photo disclosed by the NIS, the Korean characters are not identifiable as they are placed on the interior of the fuse.
This photo, provided by the National Intelligence Service, South Korea's spy agency, on Jan. 8, 2024, shows an F-7 rocket-propelled grenade launcher manufactured in North Korea suspected to have been used by the Hamas militant group. Korean characters are engraved inside of the fuse (in blue circle) of the grenade launcher. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
The spy agency also said it is "collecting and accumulating" detailed evidence of North Korea's suspected supplies of its weapons to Hamas, such as trade volumes and the timing of arms trade.
"But it is currently difficult to provide such evidence due to the need to protect information sources and in consideration of diplomatic ties," the NIS said.
South Korea's military earlier said North Korea appears to be linked to Hamas in the arms trade and other military fields, and could use military tactics similar to those used against Israel for a surprise attack on South Korea.
The NIS also reported during a parliamentary intelligence committee meeting in November that it has obtained intelligence that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un ordered officials to come up with measures to provide comprehensive assistance to Palestine.
The F-7s, a type of high-explosive fragmentation rocket, seem to be another name for the RPG-7 produced in North Korea, a military official said.
North Korea has dismissed speculation that Hamas used North Korean weapons for attacks on Israel as "groundless," accusing the United States of cooking up a false accusation against the North.
Meanwhile, in regard to North Korea's suspected arms trade with Russia, the NIS said it has been "consistently" tracking the issue in close cooperation with the United States and called on Pyongyang to "immediately" stop such transactions.
The White House said Thursday (local time) the North recently provided Russia with several dozen ballistic missiles and ballistic missile launchers, and that Moscow used some of the missiles in its latest attacks on Ukraine on Dec. 30 and Jan. 2.
"North Korea's arms trade with Russia, such as ballistic missiles and artillery shells, violates United Nations Security Council resolutions, and seriously poses a threat to peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula," the NIS said.
sooyeon@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Soo-yeon · January 8, 2024
2. FM nominee stresses need to work with China while maintaining alliance with U.S.
The shrimp among whales must walk the tightrope.
But if done right I think a positive relationship between China and South Korea can support American interests as long as the Korean priority is the ROK/US alliance (which I am sure it will be for the foreseeable future)
(3rd LD) FM nominee stresses need to work with China while maintaining alliance with U.S. | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · January 8, 2024
(ATTN: ADDS more remarks in paras 15-18)
By Kim Seung-yeon and Yi Wonju
SEOUL, Jan. 8 (Yonhap) -- South Korea should work on its relations with China based on the principle that it does not undermine the alliance with the United States, the nominee for foreign minister said Monday, highlighting that there cannot be an "absolute" balance in maintaining ties with the two countries.
Cho Tae-yul made the remarks at a parliamentary hearing on his nomination, calling China a "partner" that has a lot to cooperate on with South Korea despite differences in many areas.
"An alliance is an alliance and a partner is a partner. I don't think we can establish a complete and absolute balance between the two relationships," Cho said during the confirmation hearing at the National Assembly.
"There are elements of conflict (with China), but I think there are more elements of cooperation," he said, adding that he will try to produce substantive results in areas such as the economy and human exchanges.
Cho, a retired diplomat and former ambassador to the United Nations, was tapped as the new foreign minister last month.
Cho said he will ramp up efforts to boost the South Korea-U.S. alliance and focus on building relations with China for future cooperation.
Cho Tae-yul, foreign minister nominee, responds to lawmakers' questions during a confirmation hearing on his nomination at the National Assembly on Jan. 8, 2024. (Yonhap)
In opening remarks, Cho vowed to focus on focus on accelerating cooperation with the United States and Japan amid growing missile and nuclear threats from North Korea.
"We will push for South Korea-U.S.-Japan cooperation, which was institutionalized at the Camp David trilateral summit, with greater depth and speed," Cho said.
North Korea has recently upped the ante on the Korean Peninsula, firing several dozens of artillery shells near the inter-Korean border for three consecutive days.
He stressed the ministry will seek to dissuade North Korea from developing nuclear weapons and work in cooperation with the international community to help Pyongyang realize that achieving denuclearization through dialogue is the "only way to survive."
"Denuclearization and strengthening nuclear deterrence have become urgent security tasks as North Korea's nuclear and missile capabilities have reached a level that threatens our lives," he said.
During the hearing, Cho reaffirmed his position on pushing for the government's plan to compensate Korean victims of forced labor during Japan's 1910-45 colonial rule through a foundation funded by South Korean companies.
In March last year, Seoul announced its plan to compensate 15 victims through the "third-party reimbursement system" without compensation from liable Japanese firms, which was initially met with a strong backlash from victims who demanded Japan's apology and direct participation in the compensation process.
"I will put in every effort as there is no breakthrough other than the third-party compensation plan," he said.
Cho also countered claims by Rep. Kim Kyung-hyup of the Democratic Party that the growing cooperation between Seoul, Washington and Tokyo led to closer ties between Pyongyang, Beijing and Moscow.
"We are strengthening South Korea-U.S.-Japan cooperation in response to the already strengthening cooperation between North Korea, China and Russia," he said.
When asked whether Seoul plans to directly raise the issue of China's forced repatriation of North Korean defectors with Beijing, Cho said he understands that it is being considered.
China does not recognize North Korean defectors as refugees and repatriates them to their home country, where they are likely to face harsh punishment. Seoul has repeatedly voiced opposition against the forced repatriation.
Cho Tae-yul, foreign minister nominee, speaks during a confirmation hearing at the National Assembly on Jan. 8, 2024. (Yonhap)
Cho was also questioned about his suspected involvement in a high-profile judicial power abuse scandal centering on former Supreme Court Chief Justice Yang Sung-tae under the previous administration of President Park Geun-hye.
The former chief justice is accused of having orchestrated a delay in the deliberation of a damages suit filed by the forced labor victims to curry favor with Park, who was seeking amicable relations with Tokyo.
Cho, the then second vice foreign minister, held multiple consultations with a senior top court official, also implicated in the scandal.
Cho has claimed that the consultations took place as a routine procedure that includes the foreign ministry's submission of a written opinion on the matter. Cho was never charged in the case.
"It was a case that occurred over the process in which the foreign ministry and the judiciary shared their concerns and contemplated the appropriate way to respond for the sake of our national interest," Cho said.
"I cannot agree with defining this issue as judicial manipulation," he said.
julesyi@yna.co.kr
elly@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · January 8, 2024
3. N. Korea makes no mention of leader's 40th birthday
Hmmm...curious. You would have thought his daughter Kim Ju Ae would be seen presenting him with a birthday cake. (note sarcasm)
N. Korea makes no mention of leader's 40th birthday | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · January 8, 2024
SEOUL, Jan. 8 (Yonhap) -- North Korean state media outlets remained silent on the presumed 40th birthday of their leader Kim Jong-un on Monday.
The Korean Central News Agency, Rodong Sinmun, Korean Central Television and Korean Central Broadcasting Station have yet to make any report on Kim's birthday.
Kim is known to have been born on Jan. 8, 1984, though the North has not officially confirmed the date.
Earlier in the day, state media outlets carried reports on Kim's visit to a newly built chicken factory where he called for increasing poultry production for a "substantial change" in the people's standards of living.
Kim was accompanied by his daughter, known as Ju-ae, which marked her rare public appearance at an economy-related visit. She had mostly accompanied her father to military events.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (L), alongside his daughter Ju-ae (C), inspects the newly built Kwanchon Chicken Farm in Hwangju, North Hwanghae Province, western North Korea, on Jan. 7, 2024, in this undated photo released the next day by the North's official Korean Central News Agency. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
The North's foreign ministry highlighted Kim's diplomatic achievements in a statement on a summit between Kim and Chinese President Xi Jinping that took place on Kim's 35th birthday in 2019.
The statement, which assessed the visit as helping strengthen their bilateral ties, however, did not mention Kim's birthday.
South Korea's unification ministry in charge of inter-Korean affairs said it will keep tabs on any notable movement.
"North Korea does not have a tendency of highlighting or mentioning Kim Jong-un's birthday. While many presumptions can be made on such intention, we will not jump to conclusions and continue to monitor," Koo Byoung-sam, the ministry's spokesperson, told reporters in a press briefing.
North Korea celebrates the birthdays of Kim's late grandfather and father, Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il, as national holidays.
Kim Jong-il saw his birthday designated as a national holiday in 1982, when he was 40, eight years after he was designated as the successor to his father and national founder Kim Il-sung.
mlee@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · January 8, 2024
4. Kim Jong Un calls Kishida ‘Your Excellency’ on shelling day
Political warfare.
Kim Jong Un calls Kishida ‘Your Excellency’ on shelling day
donga.com
Posted January. 08, 2024 07:54,
Updated January. 08, 2024 07:54
Kim Jong Un calls Kishida ‘Your Excellency’ on shelling day. January. 08, 2024 07:54. yea@donga.com.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un on Friday addressed Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida as “Your Excellency" and sent the Japanese leader a letter of condolence following the devastating earthquake on Japan's Noto Peninsula that killed at least 126 people. It is the first time a North Korean leader has sent a condolence letter to a Japanese prime minister. It was the same day that North Korea launched a provocation by firing more than 200 artillery shells into the South Korean maritime buffer zone in the South's Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the West Sea. North Korea's escalation of armed provocations against the South, which it defines as a "hostile, belligerent nation not of the same ethnicity or race," and its friendly gestures to Japan are viewed by the Seoul government as a "divisive strategy aimed at cracking the trilateral cooperation between the U.S., South Korea, and Japan, which has been greatly strengthened since last year."
According to North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on Saturday, Kim addressed Prime Minister Kishida as "Your Excellency," saying, "I express my deepest sympathy and condolences to the bereaved families and victims." NHK reported Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi saying, "We express our gratitude (for Kim's condolence letter). I will refrain from answering North Korea-Japan dialogue.” North Korea sent a letter to the Japanese prime minister in the name of then Prime Minister Kang Sung San after the 1995 Kobe earthquake. Following the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, the North sent a letter of condolence to the Federation of Korean Residents of Japan in the name of Supreme People's Assembly Standing Chairman Kim Yong Nam.
South Korean officials and experts believe that Kishida's willingness to hold dialogue with North Korea on the abductees issue is not unrelated to the fact that Japan and North Korea held several working-level contacts in China and Singapore last year. Despite the lack of progress in working-level negotiations between North Korea and Japan last year, Kishida has indicated that a North Korea-Japan summit is possible to resolve the abductees' issue, so it is not impossible to rule out the possibility that contacts between Pyongyang and Tokyo are ongoing behind the scenes. Some watchers say that North Korea may try to adopt a ‘talk with Japan, blockade South Korea’ strategy, similar to the ‘talk with the U.S. and blockade South Korea’ strategy in the past when it refused to talk to South Korea and demanded negotiations with the U.S.
한국어
donga.com
5. Russia Acquires North Korean Missiles, Eyes Iranian Missiles
The irony is some of these missiles are of original Russian design, modified by north Korea and sold to Iran and others (who also modifies them usually with north Korean help). And then they are sold back to Russia. Go figure.
Russia Acquires North Korean Missiles, Eyes Iranian Missiles
fdd.org · by Krystal Bermudez · January 5, 2024
Latest Developments
Russia has received several dozen short-range ballistic missiles from North Korea and may soon get close-range ballistic missiles from Iran, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on January 4. Russia used some of these missiles against Ukraine in a pair of missile barrages over the last week, Kirby added. Missile remains recovered after those strikes indicate Russia received the KN-23 short-range ballistic missile.
Meanwhile, “Russian negotiations to acquire close-range ballistic missiles from Iran are actively advancing,” Kirby warned. Although that deal has not yet been completed, Moscow could receive the missiles as early as this spring, U.S. officials told The Wall Street Journal. The officials revealed that a Russian delegation visited an Iranian training ground in mid-December to observe Iranian ballistic missiles, including the Ababil, which Tehran displayed for the first time at an August 2023 defense expo in Moscow. That trip followed a September 2023 visit to Iran by Russia’s defense minister, who was shown the close-range Iranian Ababil and short-range Iranian Fateh-110 missiles, among other weapons.
Expert Analysis
“While Russia has significantly increased its production of missiles since the war began, Moscow’s preferred expenditure rate still outstrips production, and Ukraine is shooting down a high percentage of Russian missiles. Missiles from North Korea and potentially Iran, alongside Iranian Shahed one-way attack drones, can supplement Moscow’s stocks and support its ongoing strike campaign. These missiles, especially if supplied in greater numbers, can also exacerbate pressure on Ukraine’s interceptor stocks and stretch Ukraine’s limited number of air defense systems that can reliably intercept ballistic missiles.” — John Hardie, Deputy Director of FDD’s Russia Program
“Iran’s improving missile capabilities, to include more precise close- and short-range ballistic missiles, are emboldening the regime to take more risks, be they diplomatic or military. The widening radius of Iranian projectile proliferation is an urgent national security challenge for both the United States and Europe. No longer are Iranian drones and missiles going to be a Middle Eastern problem. A firmer and more united trans-Atlantic response against expanded Iranian drone proliferation coupled with a defense of the lapsing UN missile embargo could have deterred this forthcoming deal.” — Behnam Ben Taleblu, FDD Senior Fellow
Rogue Nations Help Russia Bombard Ukraine
In recent days, Russia has launched large-scale missile and drone barrages that apparently targeted defense-industrial facilities and critical infrastructure in Ukraine. Ukrainian and Western officials had previously warned that Moscow was stockpiling missiles to reprise last winter’s strike campaign against Ukraine’s power grid and other critical infrastructure. According to Kyiv, Russia has already attacked Ukraine with thousands of Shahed drones that were shipped from Iran or assembled in Russia under a license deal with Tehran.
Lapsed Missile Embargo
Home to the largest ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East, Iran was subject to an eight-year prohibition on ballistic missile testing and transfers per UN Security Council Resolution 2231, which codified the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. The United States and the deal’s European signatories allowed the resolution’s missile injunctions to lapse in October. Despite reports last year that Iran was planning to furnish Russia with ballistic missiles, Tehran has so far refrained from delivering any ballistic missiles to Moscow. After the lapse of the embargo, the Russian Federation issued a statement claiming it was no longer bound by any UN restrictions on Iranian missiles.
Related Analysis
“Iran Aids Russia’s Imperialist War Against Ukraine,” by John Hardie
“Iran and Russia Deepen Ties as Russian Defense Minister Visits Tehran,” FDD Flash Brief
“Arsenal: Assessing the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Ballistic Missile Program,” by Behnam Ben Taleblu
“Iran is Now at War with Ukraine,” by John Hardie and Behnam Ben Taleblu
fdd.org · by Krystal Bermudez · January 5, 2024
6. Russia is using North Korean missiles in Ukraine, US says. That’s bad news for Asia
Russia is using North Korean missiles in Ukraine, US says. That’s bad news for Asia | CNN
CNN · by Brad Lendon · January 6, 2024
See aftermath of biggest air attack on Ukraine since war began
00:37 - Source: CNN
Seoul, South Korea CNN —
Russia has fired North Korean-supplied short-range ballistic missiles into Ukraine twice in the past week, an “escalation” of Pyongyang’s support for Moscow that has serious implications for both the war in Europe and security on the Korean Peninsula, the White House said Thursday.
The North Korean-made missiles were fired at Ukraine on December 30 and January 2, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said at a White House briefing. They were among at least 500 missiles and drones fired at Ukraine around the New Year’s holiday, according to Kyiv.
The December 30 attack involved a lone missile that fell into a field, while Russia’s January 2 assault involved multiple missiles, he said. The impacts of missiles fired on January 2 are still being assessed, Kirby said, adding they were part of a “massive” Russian assault.
“Due in part to our sanctions and export controls, Russia has become increasingly isolated on the world stage and they’ve been forced to look to likeminded states for military equipment,” Kirby said in the briefing. “As we’ve been warning publicly, one of those states is North Korea.”
Kirby and analysts who spoke with CNN said the introduction of the North Korean weapons into the war in Ukraine will reverberate 7,500 kilometers (4,600 miles) east to the Korean Peninsula.
National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby speaks during a news briefing at the White House on January 04, 2024 in Washington, DC. During the briefing, Kirby spoke about the U.S. government's belief that Russia was supplied with North Korean ballistic missiles that were used to strike Ukraine.
Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images
“This is a significant and concerning escalation in the DPRK’s support for Russia,” Kirby said, using the acronym for North Korea’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
“We expect Russia and North Korea to learn from these launches,” Kirby said.
Analysts echoed that sentiment, saying the use of North Korean missiles on the battlefield in Ukraine can give Pyongyang data it can’t get from a testing program that has seen dozens of the weapons fired over the past few years under the missile program of leader Kim Jong Un.
“It will be interesting to see how these missiles perform in a more operational environment and outside of North Korea’s propaganda machine, particularly any indication of accuracy and indeed the guidance systems utilized,” said Joseph Dempsey, research associate for defense and military analysis at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
This pool image distributed by Sputnik agency shows North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un during his meeting with Russian President at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Amur region on September 13, 2023, ahead of planned talks that could lead to a weapons deal with Russian President.
Vladimir Smirnov/Pool/AFP/Getty Images
North Korea says it will no longer seek reunification with South Korea, will launch new spy satellites in 2024
Ankit Panda, senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Russia’s use of the missiles against Ukraine allows North Korea to gather data on how they penetrated defenses similar to those South Korea and the United States might field on the Korean Peninsula.
“In technical terms, I suspect the North Koreans will be quite interested in how their missiles fare against Western missile defense systems,” he said.
Speaking at the White House, Kirby said the consequences for South Korea and the region go beyond Pyongyang’s ability to refine its missile programs.
“In return for its support we assess that Pyongyang is seeking military assistance from Russia including fighter aircraft, surface-to-air missiles, armored vehicles, ballistic missile production equipment, war materials and other advanced technologies,” Kirby said.
“This would have concerning security implications for the Korean Peninsula and the Indo-Pacific region.”
Top Ukrainian general has a warning about this Russian weapon
02:38 - Source: CNN
The areas Kirby ticked off are ones where North Korea’s adversaries in East Asia – most notably South Korea, the US and Japan – are considered to have big advantages over the isolated nation.
For instance, all three possess advanced F-35 stealth fighter jets that would give them big advantages in trying to breach North Korean air defenses. But if Pyongyang were to acquire more modern Russian surface-to-air missiles with advanced tracking radars to go with them, the F-35 advantage could be cut back significantly.
Russia is also likely sending money to Pyongyang, said Lee Jang Wook, research fellow at the Center for Security and Strategy in the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA).
“The first biggest benefit will be North Korea’s weapons to act as another export revenue” for Pyongyang, Lee told CNN.
“And this revenue can be another monetary support to mass create more nuclear weapons,” Lee said.
Meanwhile, Kirby and the analysts say Russia is likely seeing immediate benefits from any influx of North Korean armaments.
In this pool photograph distributed by Russian state agency Sputnik, Russia's President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with Russia's state-owned defence corporation Rostec CEO Sergei Chemezov (unseen) in Moscow on December 28, 2023. (Photo by Gavriil GRIGOROV / POOL / AFP)
Gavriil Grigorov/AFP/Getty Images
Russia appears poised to purchase ballistic missiles from Iran, official says
“The North Korean SRBMs are unlikely to provide a qualitive edge over anything already in the Russian inventory. Instead, the main benefit being quantitative, by boosting Russia’s depleting missile stocks and providing an additional supply line,” Dempsey said.
The North Korean missiles “will allow Russia to continue deep strikes without drawing down its own stocks of missiles,” Panda said. The North Korean missiles have a range of up to 900 kilometers (about 550 miles), Kirby said, allowing them to be fired from deeper in Russian territory where Moscow’s air defenses can keep launchers better protected from Ukrainian counterstrikes.
And a North Korean supply has another advantage for Moscow, Panda said.
“Given the land border between Russia and North Korea, it will be nigh impossible for Western states to interrupt transfers as long as Pyongyang is willing to continue cooperating with Russia,” he said.
For Ukraine, it all adds up to a troubling picture ahead.
“We anticipate that Russia will use additional North Korean missiles to target Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure and to kill innocent Ukrainian civilians,” Kirby said.
CNN’s Soeun Kim contributed to this report.
CNN · by Brad Lendon · January 6, 2024
7. Kim Jong-un's daughter on track to assume power as aunt fades from spotlight: analysts
This article will not age well. The press and pundits are making too much of this. But any information and speculation from the black hole of north Korea is news.
Kim Jong-un's daughter on track to assume power as aunt fades from spotlight: analysts
The Korea Times · January 8, 2024
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un inspects a poultry farm with his daughter, Ju-ae, at Hwangju County, some 45 kilometers south of Pyongyang, Sunday, in this photo released Monday by North Korea's state media. Yonhap
Media uses exclusive honorifics as Kim Ju-ae's role expands
By Jung Min-ho
When North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s daughter, known as Ju-ae, made her first public appearance in late 2022, few analysts saw her as his successor, with some suggesting that his sister, Kim Yo-jong, was more likely to take the throne if something happens to his ability to rule.
But about a year later, many experts, including top-level agents at South Korea's national spy agency, think that Ju-ae is on track to assume the top spot. Meanwhile, the North Korean leader's ambitious sister appears to have been sidelined from the media spotlight, according to analysts, Monday.
A further basis for such claims was provided by Rodong Sinmun, North Korea’s official newspaper, which used honorifics exclusively for Ju-ae and her father in the coverage of their inspection of a poultry farm in Hwangju County, some 45 kilometers south of the North's capital Pyongyang. Monday’s issue of the newspaper, on the other hand, plainly described other high-ranking officials who followed them, including Yo-jong and Premier Kim Tok-hun, without using the same honorifics.
It was the third time that the daily provided coverage of the leader accompanied by his daughter this year, highlighting her special role in North Korean politics.
Speaking to The Korea Times, experts said the way North Korean media has covered the two women over the past year clearly indicates that Ju-ae will likely become the next leader and that Kim Yo-jong’s role is shrinking.
This photo released on Feb. 18 by North Korea's state media shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and his daughter, Ju-ae, watching sports events at a venue in Pyongyang, North Korea. Kim Yo-jong, his sister, is seen sitting in the back row. Yonhap
“Based on the media coverage over the past year, it now seems certain to me that Kim Ju-ae is on track to assume power. I would say the chances are 70 percent or higher,” Ko Young-hwan, a former North Korean diplomat, said. “Meanwhile, for some reason, Kim Yo-jong appears to have distanced herself from the political spotlight and the helm of power. It may be her own will … As a person who knows how Jang Song-thaek (the current leader’s uncle) was killed, she perhaps thinks that it would be safer to keep some distance from the spotlight.”
Unlike Yo-jong, the role of Ju-ae is expected to expand this year to the economy and other areas, according to Cheong Seong-chang, a senior researcher at the Sejong Institute, a think tank.
“She was reported by North Korea’s state media on 24 occasions since November 2022. Among them, 21 were military-related activities. Two of her three public appearances so far this year were made during non-military events, as the media constantly highlights her superior position over other officials,” he said. “All this suggests that her role will continue to expand in 2024.”
Cheong said it is possible that she may have already been appointed as first secretary ― the No. 2 post created at a key Workers' Party meeting in 2021. The creation of the post had been kept a secret for more than five months. It is still unclear who holds that position.
After Kim Jong-un rose to power following the death of his father Kim Jong-il, his sister played a key role in his government. Amid speculation about Kim's declining health, various experts, think tanks, and government research centers, including the National Assembly Research Service, seriously considered the possibility of Yo-jong's succession. This occurred before her niece's political ascent.
In both scenarios, some analysts find it unrealistic to consider the possibility of a woman becoming the next leader of North Korea, which is dominated by a patriarchal system. But given the expanded roles of women in the Kim regime during his reign, represented by his daughter, his sister, and Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui among others, such a scenario is no longer improbable, Cheong noted.
The Korea Times · January 8, 2024
8. A Bleak Outlook for Inter-Korean Relations in 2024
We should not misunderstand north Korea's comments about no longer seeking unification. The Kim family regime has never sought peaceful unification unless it is on its terms that results in domination of the Korean peninsula by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State. The regime has always sought domination and not unification. That said, it has been willing to exploit South Korean desire for unification to try to subvert the ROK government and ROK society. But the objectives and strategy have always been domination on the regime's terms.
In addition we can expect the regime to someday return to unification focus when it believes it can be exploited. The regime will likely offer a unification focus as a "concession." Since the South is focused on unification the regime will try to exploit that by simply saying that it will return to. unification focus.
We must always seek to understand the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime.
A Bleak Outlook for Inter-Korean Relations in 2024
https://www.peninsuladispatch.com/p/a-bleak-outlook-for-inter-korean?r=ezedb&utm
Prospects for unification fade while chances of renewed conflict increase
GABRIELA BERNAL
JAN 8, 2024
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Barely a week into 2024, tensions on the Korean Peninsula are rapidly escalating. On the one hand, North Korea has declared it will no longer pursue unification as long as Seoul sticks to a strategy centered around the “collapse of the DPRK's regime,” "unification by absorption," and “unification under liberal democracy.” On the other hand, South Korea announced plans to further strengthen the US-ROK extended deterrence system aimed at the North, calling for “peace through strength.” Given the starkly different positions held by the two Koreas, prospects for the improvement of inter-Korean relations this year look bleak. In reality, the escalating hostility between the two nations will likely lead to a rapid deterioration of the security situation on the Peninsula, potentially jeopardizing regional peace and stability.
Incompatible Unification Policies
Although inter-Korean relations have not progressed in a positive direction over the past four years, North-South ties reached a new low point on December 31, 2023, when Pyongyang announced a change in the country’s unification policy. According to North Korean media KCNA, Kim Jong-un called for a “decisive policy change” in how the North deals with the South. Kim announced the policy shift at the 9th Enlarged Plenary Meeting of the 8th Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK), held from Dec. 26-30.
According to the North Korean leader, his country’s policy for national reunification has not had its desired effect, instead “the north-south relations have repeated the vicious cycle of contact and suspension, dialogue and confrontation.” He accused South Korea of pursuing "unification by absorption" and “unification under liberal democracy,” with the goal of the “collapse of the DPRK's regime.” According to Kim, this version of unification sought by the South is not compatible with the North’s version of “national reunification based on one nation and one state with two systems.”
North and South Korea have had their own views on unification ever since the formation of two separate states on the Peninsula in 1948. At that time, it was important for both Koreas to prove their legitimacy as the “true Korean nation.” Particularly in the early years of the Cold War, the main approach was to achieve unification by force. This strategy then changed in the ‘80s with the North proposing the “Democratic Federal Republic of Koryo” and the South presenting its “Unification Formula for the Korean National Community.”
The South Korean version of unification calls for a 3-step process of reconciliation and cooperation, the formation of a Korean commonwealth, and the realization of a unitary state based on liberal democratic values. On the other hand, the North Korean version of unification calls for the formation of two regional Korean governments that implement policies under the direction of a Confederal government.
The North later amended its proposal in 1991 to a “low stage federation”, saying it would be open to allowing regional governments more autonomy. This brought the unification formulas of the two Koreas closer together, with the leaders of North and South agreeing in the June 15, 2000 Joint Declaration that “there are common elements in the South’s proposal for a confederation and the North’s proposal for a federation of lower stage as the formulae for achieving reunification” and that unification would be pursued in that direction.
Nevertheless, important differences remained in terms of what the final version of a unified state would look like. For the South, it would be “one nation, one state, one system, one government” under a liberal democratic system, while for the North it would be “one nation, one state, two systems, two governments,” which would ensure the continuation of the North’s socialist system. The two formulas for unification have not changed much over the years.
Realizing the disparity in their views, Kim Jong Un described inter-Korean relations at the December Plenary Meeting as “relations between two states hostile to each other and the relations between two belligerent states,” arguing that “the reality urgently requires us to adopt a new stand on the north-south relations and the reunification policy.”
The announcement by Pyongyang is significant. Although the North is known to use harsh rhetoric and throw insults at the South Korean government regularly, the latest development goes further by announcing a formal change in the country’s policy line concerning unification with the South. This is the first time the North Korean government publicly declares it will no longer be pursuing unification.
A gradual shift in North Korea’s unification policy is also visible through North Korean propaganda over the past few years, such as its regularly produced posters aimed at the domestic audience. The first three images below (2016) promote unification with the South, emphasizing a Korean-led movement without foreign interference. However, the bottom left image (2019) highlights the importance of self-reliance, while the bottom right image (2022) emphasizes the need to prioritize the development of the country’s national defense capabilities. In other words, more importance is being placed on expanding military capabilities and achieving growth through self-reliance instead of pursuing the goal of reunification.
North Korean posters, 2016-2022
This situation puts South Korea in a difficult position. Unlike the North, South Korea cannot openly denounce the goal of unification since it is enshrined in the country’s Constitution (Article 4: “The Republic of Korea shall seek unification and shall formulate and carry out a policy of peaceful unification based on the principles of freedom and democracy.”). South Korean Unification Minister Kim Yung-ho reiterated this stance on Jan. 2, saying the South will continue to “prepare for unification in earnest,” while warning that the North will not be able to overcome the US-ROK ‘wall’ of deterrence.
Although the Constitution calls for unification to be pursued ‘peacefully’, North Korea accuses the South of adhering to the so-called ‘unification by absorption policy’, which would see the North Korean government collapse and the two Koreas reunited by South Korea ‘absorbing’ the North and forming one nation under the South Korean system. Even though each government in the South states its goal of achieving unification through peaceful means, wording used in various unification-related documents over the years rejects the idea of a unified Korean state that includes the presence of the current North Korean governing system.
For example, one 2012 report on unification states that “the authoritarian and totalitarian systems that still remain on the Korean Peninsula must be eliminated,” pointing to the North Korean system. Moreover, regarding the current government, the 2023 Unification Ministry’s White Paper on Korean Unification states that the Yoon administration’s priority is to “denuclearize North Korea” (not the Korean Peninsula), while aiming for “peaceful unification based on a basic free and democratic order.” Meanwhile, the first sentence on the Korea Institute for National Reunification (KINU)’s current homepage states that “The territory of the Republic of Korea shall consist of the Korean peninsula and its adjacent islands,” in accordance with the South Korean Constitution—underscoring the view that sees the South as the only legitimate Korea and the territory in the northern half of the Peninsula as belonging to South Korea.
North Korea sees this position as incompatible with its vision for a unified Korea and has therefore given up, at least for now, on the goal of unification. Instead, North Korea will likely prioritize further strengthening its military capabilities while deepening ties with traditional allies such as Russia and China. Regarding the latter, Kim Jong Un mentioned at the Plenary Meeting his plans of “further developing the relations with the anti-imperialist independent countries opposed to the hegemony strategy of the U.S. and the West.” In short, improving relations with South Korea is not on the priority list.
“Peace through strength”
As is the case in the North, the current South Korean government does not seem to be prioritizing unification at the moment. The Yoon government has designated North Korea as the South’s “main enemy” and is vowing to double down on its hardline, deterrence-centered strategy in 2024.
“Korea will build peace through strength. It will not be a submissive peace that is dependent on the good will of the adversary,” President Yoon said in his 2024 New Year Address. In terms of what this approach looks like in practice, the South Korean president explained: “We will accelerate our efforts to build a stronger ROK 3K Defense System to defend against North Korean nuclear and missile threats.”
The 3K Defense System refers to the Kill Chain system, the Korea Air and Missile Defense system, and the Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation plan. The Kill Chain system is particularly controversial as it aims to launch a preemptive strike to remove the North Korean leadership in the face of an imminent nuclear attack.
Unlike the previous Moon Jae-in administration, the Yoon government has taken a more hardline stance toward the North, favoring military deterrence over diplomacy. Pyongyang has made its displeasure at the Yoon administration clear from the beginning, insulting the South Korean president on various occasions and calling his plans for denuclearization of the North in exchange for economic aid “the height of absurdity.”
Since coming to office, President Yoon has prioritized deepening ties with the US and Japan and strengthening deterrence aimed at North Korea. Steps toward the latter were solidified in July when Yoon and US President Joe Biden launched the US-ROK Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) aimed at strengthening extended deterrence, discussing nuclear and strategic planning, and ‘managing the threat to the nonproliferation regime’ posed by North Korea. Yoon also highlighted the NCG in his New Year’s speech, saying that the US and South Korea have now established a “nuclear-based” military alliance.
The NCG has further driven a wedge between North and South Korea, with Pyongyang seeing it as yet another hostile move by Washington and Seoul. In Kim Jong-un’s opinion, the NCG is “aimed at the joint plan and execution for the use of nuclear weapons” by the US and ROK and is bringing the two Koreas closer to war. The North Korean leader also heavily criticized Yoon’s decision to “complete the enhanced ROK-U.S. extended deterrence system” by the first half of 2024.
South Korea’s Unification Ministry is also echoing the same hardline policy approach. “The government will craft a 'thicker and more elevated' deterrence system through the strengthening of the Seoul-Washington alliance in order to brace for Pyongyang's potential military provocations," South Korea’s Unification Minister Kim Yung-ho said on Jan. 2. The Unification Minister is known for his hardline stance toward the North, having said in 2019 that unification would only be possible once the North’s government “is overthrown and North Korea is liberated."
A “golden opportunity” for Pyongyang?
North Korea has repeatedly criticized the Yoon administration, seeing the current South Korean government’s strategy as one more likely to result in conflict than reconciliation. Pyongyang made its stance vis-à-vis the Yoon government explictly clear on Jan. 2 through a statement made by Kim Yo Jong, Kim Jong Un’s sister. The message was specifically directed at the South Korean president, with the title of the statement reading "New Year message to the president of the Republic of Korea.”
“The present security situation on the Korean peninsula is so critical that it may be not strange to see the outbreak of war at once, and the security uneasiness has become a commonplace in the ROK. This is entirely ascribable to the ‘merits’ of President Yoon Suk Yeol.” - Kim Yo Jong, Jan. 2, 2024.
Kim Yo Jong strongly criticized Yoon’s “peace by force” approach toward the North and mocked the South’s policy for being counterproductive by giving the North all the justification it needs to further grow its military and nuclear capabilities. “Thanks to the frequent introduction of U.S. nuclear carriers, nuclear submarines and nuclear strategic bombers allegedly to frighten anyone, the DPRK could develop its military capabilities in a reasonable and effective way,” she argued.
She called Yoon’s presidency a “golden opportunity” for North Korea and a “valuable gift,” adding that if the opposition candidate would have won in the 2022 presidential elections, it would have been “a serious trouble to us.”
“The tremendous military muscle we are so satisfied with and trust in may have been hard to be secured in such a short span of time without the military confrontation attitude that Yoon showed so wildly and his clamoring for ‘collapse’ of our country and ‘punishment’.”
Similarly, critics of the Yoon administration’s North Korea approach claim the South’s policy is increasing the risk of conflict, giving North Korea time to further develop its nuclear and missile programs, and making diplomacy impossible. Kim Yo Jong called on Yoon to continue his current policy line, as his current approach is helping “bolster up the military muscle of the DPRK.”
A dangerous year ahead
With unification goals off the table—at least for now—North Korea is likely to take a much more aggressive stance against the South this year. Signs of heightened tensions are already becoming apparent, with South Korea claiming the North conducted live-fire drills near the Western border with the South for three consecutive days over the weekend. In a report published by KCNA on Sunday, however, Kim Yo Jong refuted Seoul’s claims, saying instead that the North “conducted a deceptive operation in order to assess the real detecting ability of the ROK military gangsters” and that the Korean People’s Army (KPA) had in fact detonated “blasting powder” simulating the sound of artillery.
Regardless, the tendency of the South to respond in kind to North Korean provocations does not bode well for the stability of the Peninsula or the wider region. This is especially so now that the 2018 inter-Korean Comprehensive Military Agreement has practically been scrapped. With neither side showing any signs of softening their approach to each other, 2024 will likely see tensions between the Koreas continue to rise, perhaps to new heights.
This year’s presidential elections in the US are also likely to spur increased military actions by North Korea, including a possible nuclear test. Even if Donald Trump is reelected, inter-Korean ties are unlikely to progress in a positive direction this year. The new US president would have to make a major shift in Washington’s North Korea policy, away from a deterrence-centered strategy toward one prioritizing engagement, the resumption of diplomacy, and arms control instead of denuclearization. North Korea will remain uninterested in diplomacy as long as the US’ current policy remains unchanged. The same is true for its stance toward South Korea.
9. N. Korean leader calls for increased poultry production amid food shortages
"Eat Mor Chikin" - Maybe Chick Fil A can open some franchises in the north (dark humor attempt I know)
N. Korean leader calls for increased poultry production amid food shortages
The Korea Times · January 8, 2024
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, left, and his daughter, known as Ju-ae, visit Kwangchon Chicken Farm, a newly built chicken factory in Hwangju County of North Hwanghae Province, in this file photo carried by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency, Jan. 8. Yonhap
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has visited a newly built chicken factory and called for increasing poultry production for a "substantial change" in the people's standards of living, state media reported Monday.
Kim visited Kwangchon Chicken Farm in Hwangju County of North Hwanghae Province on Sunday, accompanied by his daughter, known as Ju-ae, according to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
He underscored the need to "constantly increase the production capacity so as to provide the people with much more meat and eggs," the KCNA said, adding that the country is planning to build another chicken farm in Pyongyang this year.
The visit comes as North Korea has been focusing on boosting grain production due to the country's chronic food shortages, which have resulted in reported deaths from starvation in some regions.
Kim also called for taking the farm as a standard model for modernizing poultry factories across the nation to "bring about a substantial change in the people's living," the report said.
In July 2020, the North's leader visited the construction site of the Kwangchon chicken factory. The North's state media claimed at that time that the factory could produce thousands of tons of meat and tens of millions of eggs per year.
Kim's latest visit appears to be aimed at portraying himself as a leader who cares about the people's lives in the new year. His daughter Ju-ae also made a rare public appearance at economy-related sites, after mostly accompanying her father to military events before.
South Korea's unification ministry handling inter-Korean affairs said Friday that she has made 24 public appearances since November 2022 and 19 of them have been to military-related events. (Yonhap)
The Korea Times · January 8, 2024
10. South scraps maritime buffer zone after North fires artillery shells
A useful graphic of the DMZ and the buffer zones form the CMA is at the link: https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2024-01-08/national/northKorea/South-scraps-maritime-buffer-zone-after-North-fires-artillery-shells/1953426
Monday
January 8, 2024
dictionary + A - A
Published: 08 Jan. 2024, 12:52
Updated: 08 Jan. 2024, 19:59
South scraps maritime buffer zone after North fires artillery shells
North Korea's Korean Central TV shows a 44-second video of North Korean soldiers detonating explosives on Saturday. Kim Yo-jong, the sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, released a statement on Sunday claiming that the South Korean military mistook the explosives for artillery shells. [KOREAN CENTRAL TV/ YONHAP]
The South Korean military said the buffer zone outlined in the 2018 inter-Korean has become invalid since North Korea fired artillery over the past three days.
"North Korea has violated the Sept. 19 [2018] military agreement on approximately 3,000 occasions," the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) spokesperson Col. Lee Sung-jun said on Monday. "And in the last three consecutive days, it has fired artillery shells into the Yellow Sea."
"Consequently, a zone suspending all hostile activities no longer exists," Lee said.
Related Article
Under the agreement, all provocative actions are prohibited in the zone, including firing coastal guns and conducting naval exercises.
This buffer zone extends 135 kilometers (83.8 miles) in the Yellow Sea, encompassing the maritime territory between the two Koreas.
That's 85 kilometers south of the Northern Limit Line and 50 kilometers north of the maritime border.
A separate buffer zone in the East Sea spans 80 kilometers.
Lee, however, said the South Korean military will not respond to every provocation initiated by North Korea.
"Our military will conduct firing exercises according to our predetermined schedule," Lee said.
In fact, while the South Korean military fired 400 rounds of shells, including those launched from the K-9 self-propelled howitzer on Friday, in response to approximately 200 artillery rounds from North Korea, it refrained from responding to the North's consequent firings on Saturday and Sunday.
According to the South Korean military, North Korea fired 60 rounds on Saturday and 90 rounds on Sunday.
Lee hinted at the possibility of further provocations from the North, noting that the North Korean military has maintained its gun ports open since unilaterally nullifying the agreement in November.
"We will keep the public informed if North Korea persists in firing artillery, prioritizing the safety of our people," Lee said.
The JCS spokesman rejected the claim by Kim Yo-jong, the sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, that the South Korean military was tricked.
“Our military has the capability to distinguish between explosives being detonated and artillery firing,” Lee said. “Therefore, we were able to detect the situation accurately and provide information on the number of shells fired and their destination.”
The spokesman added that Kim’s statement seemed to be for domestic consumption, possibly to prevent a loss of public trust and to consolidate internal unity.
“It is also believed to be an attempt to stir conflict within our own country through psychological warfare,” Lee said.
On Sunday, Kim's sister released a statement asserting that the South Korean military had been deceived, emphasizing that the claims of North Korea firing artillery shells were untrue.
Kim said that North Korea had intentionally detonated explosives designed to mimic the sound of 130-millimeter coastal guns, aiming to monitor the South Korean military's detection capability.
She mocked the South Korean military, accusing them of falling for the bait.
On Sunday, North Korean state media, Korean Central TV, released a 44-second video depicting North Korean soldiers burying explosives and then detonating them.
The North Korean military’s General Staff also issued a statement on the same day stating that its 4th Corps conducted a “deceptive operation, simulating shelling,” on Jan. 6.
It added that 88 shells were fired from 23 coastal guns from Tungam-ri, Kangryong County and Yonan County on Sunday.
The North Korean military, however, stressed that the artillery exercise posed no threat to South Korea, underscoring that the drill was conducted in accordance with its regular training plan.
Tensions have been escalating between the two Koreas since North Korea successfully launched a reconnaissance satellite into orbit in November.
The Yoon Suk Yeol government responded by announcing the suspension of the no-fly zone agreement outlined in the 2018 comprehensive military agreement.
Two days later, North Korea declared the complete nullification of the agreement signed by Kim Jong-un and then-President Moon Jae-in.
Since then, North Korea has consistently blamed South Korea for escalating tensions between the two Koreas.
Both Kim Jong-un and his sister have heightened their rhetoric since last month, with the North Korean leader even labeling the South as a "hostile" entity, urging North Korean soldiers to be on standby for a potential takeover.
BY LEE HO-JEONG [lee.hojeong@joongang.co.kr]
11. Seoul declares maritime buffer zone with North ineffective
Seoul declares maritime buffer zone with North ineffective
But ongoing N Korea provocations may be a diplomatic shift to use Japan to influence the U.S., says expert.
By Lee Jeong-Ho for RFA
2024.01.07
Seoul, South Korea
rfa.org
South Korea has officially declared that the maritime buffer zone with North Korea no longer exists, setting a precondition for Seoul and Washington to conduct reconnaissance operations near the border in response to Pyongyang’s ongoing military provocations.
“North Korea has breached the September 19th military agreement over 3,000 times and has conducted artillery fire in the West Sea [Yellow Sea] over the last three days. As a result, the zone designated for the cessation of hostile actions effectively, no longer exists,” South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said Monday.
Speaking to reporters in Seoul, JCS spokesperson Lee Seong-Joon said that the ongoing provocations have essentially rendered the inter-Korean agreement inactive.
In 2018, the two Koreas agreed to halt what the other has defined as hostile actions toward one another near the border, including the maritime border, the Northern Limit Line (NLL), but the North has conducted a number of provocations since then, violating the terms of the agreement.
In November, North Korea formally declared an immediate and complete withdrawal from the military agreement, pledging to deploy its latest weaponry along the border with South Korea. The move came as Seoul suspended a part of the agreement following the North’s satellite launch that violated the United Nations Security Council resolution.
With North Korea’s latest provocation in the maritime border, which has effectively nullified the inter-Korean agreement, South Korea, in collaboration with the United States, may resume immediate reconnaissance and surveillance activities near the border, as indicated by South Korea’s Prime Minister Han Duck-soo in November.
Seoul’s reaction on Monday comes as North Korea proceeded with military provocation off its western coast for three consecutive days since Friday.
According to a series of statements released by the South’s JCS, North Korea carried out over 90 rounds of artillery fire north of South Korea-ruled Yeonpyeong Island between 4 p.m. and 5:10 p.m. Sunday. None landed south of the NLL.
Separately, on Saturday, North Korea also fired approximately 60 coastal artillery shells off its western coast, the JCS said. However, this statement countered claims from the North’s powerful sister Kim Yo Jong Sunday, that Seoul had misinterpreted the event. She asserted that North Korea had only detonated explosives around 60 times to mimic the sound of its 130mm coastal artillery, rather than firing actual artillery shells.
The JCS released statements later calling North Korea’s actions as “comical,” asserting that these actions were intended to “undermine trust in the military and incite internal conflict in the South.” The JCS maintained that its military assets detected projections of North Korean artillery shells, in addition to setting off explosives.
On Friday, North Korea launched some 200 artillery shells into waters off its western coast near South Korea’s Baengnyeong and Yeonpyeong islands. Unlike the Saturday and Sunday development, however, the artillery firing was directed towards the southern direction, and Seoul conducted “naval fire” drills by its troops to reciprocate the provocation.
North Korea has been escalating military tensions recently in the Korean peninsula as it is also restoring its guard posts in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ). South Korea has reciprocated the moves by imposing unilateral sanctions and announcing its decision to dissolve its foundation designed for facilitating the inter-Korean economic complex.
South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol has implemented a hardline policy towards Pyongyang, with his conservative administration openly vowing to proceed reciprocal responses to North Korea’s provocations.
Cheon Seong-whun, a former security strategy secretary for South Korea's presidential office noted that Pyongyang’s provocation appears relatively controlled and restrained, as evidenced by the absence of artillery fire south of the NLL.
“They seem to be focusing on justifying their actions as a response to joint South Korea-U.S. military exercises. There’s no need for an excessive response. I believe it’s sufficient to closely monitor their actions while continuing to emphasize the importance of dialogue.”
The U.S. and South Korean military forces began their first joint drills for this year on Thursday, involving the U.S. Air Force asset, Rivet Joint, a reconnaissance aircraft designed for intelligence collection.
Cheon also pointed out that North Korea’s actions seem to be an attempt to form a new diplomatic strategy, excluding South Korea. “They need an external threat, hence they label South Korea and the U.S. as adversaries, but at the same time, they are reaching out to Japan, as shown by the recent letter to Prime Minister Kishida. This shift warrants attention.”
According to North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency on Saturday, North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un addressed the Japanese leader, Fumio Kishida, as “Your Excellency,” expressing his “deepest sympathy and condolences” to the victims of Japan’s latest earthquake.
“There is a possibility that North Korea might try to reach out and potentially influence the U.S., not through South Korea, but through Japan,” said Cheon, suggesting that Pyongyang’s next move could lead to the potential for dialogue between North Korea and Japan.
Edited by Elaine Chan and Taejun Kang.
rfa.org
12. ＜Inside N. Korea＞ Government implements wage by more than 10 times (1) Wages increase for employees of state-run enterprises and government agencies
Interesting development but I think mostly cosmetic or symbolic or as it says to control the people.
Excerpts:
Why did Kim Jong-un's regime raise labor wages more than tenfold all at once? As mentioned before, employee wages are linked to the costs of purchasing food at state-run food stores. But, what was the aim of the wage hike? As the survey progressed, ASIAPRESS found that the increase in wages is aimed at exerting control over employees. The next installment in this two-part series will explore this in more detail. (to be continued)
＜Inside N. Korea＞ Government implements wage by more than 10 times (1) Wages increase for employees of state-run enterprises and government agencies
https://www.asiapress.org/rimjin-gang/2024/01/society-economy/wage-increase/
2024.01.06
A North Korean worker on a barge on the Yalu River. He has a dog with him. Photo taken by ASIAPRESS from the Chinese side of the Yalu River across from Sinuiju, North Pyongan Province in October 2023.
Wage increases implemented across all workplaces in northern cities from November to December 2023, North Korean authorities significantly raised the wages of workers and government officials at state-owned enterprises (SOEs). The increase is about 10 times higher than at the beginning of 2023. ASIAPRESS reporting partners in various regions confirmed the wage increase. In some cases, the workers are being paid through electronic cards. What is the aim of the Kim Jong Un regime's drastic "wage hike"? Reporting on this development will be divided into two installments. (KANG Ji-won ／ ISHIMARU Jiro)
◆ Even officials couldn't afford two kilograms of rice
What ASIAPRESS has concluded is that the regime's sudden "wage hike" appears to be aimed at covering the costs of buying rice and corn from state-run food stores. This will be dealt with in more detail later. For now, it's worth explaining the recent noim (literally, “labor wage”; North Korea doesn't call it a monthly salary) system.
In March 2023, ASIAPRESS surveyed labor wages in North Hamgyong and Yanggang provinces. At the time, monthly wages in state-owned enterprises were generally between 1,500 and 2,500 won for ordinary workers, 4,000 won for low-level officials, and 6,000 to 8,000 won for managers and deputy managers. In addition, the salaries of senior officials of People's Committees, the equivalent of local governments, ranged from 5,000 to 8,000 won.
As of March 2023, 1,000 won was equal to about 0.12 US dollars, meaning that even the highest salary of 8,000 won was only worth about 0.96 US dollars. At the same time, food prices in markets were around 6,000 for white rice and 3,000 for corn (all per kilogram), which shows that the wages people received weren't enough to cover purchases of basic necessities. However, after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, government employees did receive food rations.
Multiple ASIAPRESS reporting partners all agreed that there is no one who can rely solely on the wages they get because much of it is taken away under the pretext of supporting the military, flood recovery efforts, and other activities.
After being plunged into a financial crisis following a border closure to prevent the spread of COVID-19, North Korea issued temporary "cash vouchers," or donpyo, in August 2021.
◆ The wage system hasn't changed much in 13 years
Before 2020, only some government employees and businesses received food rations. Most people relied on other sources of cash income - such as private business activities, day labor, and bribes - to buy food and other essentials in the markets. For example, before the pandemic, a person could earn as much as 10,000 won a day at temporary jobs, such as working on public works projects (such as roads, pipelines, railways).
At the time of the March 2023 survey, labor wages had only doubled since Kim Jong-il's "currency reform" in late November 2009 (which devalued the currency by 1/100s of a percent). Since 2013, companies were allowed more discretion in how they paid their workers, and some of the most profitable ones paid 300,000 to 500,000 won per month, plus other food items such as white rice, cooking oil, alcohol, and meat.
Teachers are the exception to all this. In 2019, their salaries were raised to around 15,000 to 18,000 won, and they began to receive food rations. In response to widespread requests for money by teachers to parents, Kim Jong-un personally ordered improvements in how teachers were paid.
◆ Wages are still only 4.3 to 6.04 US dollars per month despite the wage hike
According to information collected from ASIAPRESS reporting partners, wages were raised once between April and September 2023. For typical state-owned enterprises, employees began to be paid 12,000-15,000 won per month. These wages more than doubled in November and December 2023.
Below is an overview of the monthly wages revealed by the December survey. Note the differences in pay by company and position. The surveyed companies include copper mines, iron mines, paper mills, and shoe factories.
Government employees: 35,000 to 50,000 won
Teachers: 38,000 to 50,000 won
State-owned enterprise workers: 35,000 won
Retiree pensions: 25,000 won
※At the time, 1,000 North Korean won was equal to about 0.167 US dollars.
ASIAPRESS was not able to conduct surveys outside of North Hamgyong and Yanggang provinces at the time. While there is no confirmation that the same "wage hike" occurred in Pyongyang and other cities, it is highly possible that there has been an increase in wages in other areas given that the wage hike is taking place under the state-managed economic system.
"Initially, the wage hike was supposed to start in November with state-owned enterprises, but many companies implemented it in December because they didn't have the cash," a Yanggang Province-based reporting partner told ASIAPRESS.
Additionally, some departments within SOEs that are able to independently generate funds have managed to raise their monthly income to 120,000 to 150,000 won, although this isn't common. Essentially, departments divvy out the profits from the sale of the company's consumer goods, which typically include beer, bread, and sweets. While the system is different from the normal wage system, the profit-sharing arrangement is popular in workplaces because the more profitable the company is, the bigger the share taken home by the employees.
Why did Kim Jong-un's regime raise labor wages more than tenfold all at once? As mentioned before, employee wages are linked to the costs of purchasing food at state-run food stores. But, what was the aim of the wage hike? As the survey progressed, ASIAPRESS found that the increase in wages is aimed at exerting control over employees. The next installment in this two-part series will explore this in more detail. (to be continued)
※ ASIAPRESS communicates with its reporting partners through Chinese cell phones smuggled into North Korea.
A map of North Korea (ASIAPRESS)
＜Related Article＞
13. Life On The Frontline: Fear, Camaraderie On S. Korean Border Island
I visited P-Y DO in the 1990s on a UN and ROK/US CFC trip to coordinate defense planning of the Northwest islands but I have never visited Y-P-Do.
Life On The Frontline: Fear, Camaraderie On S. Korean Border Island
Barron's · by Claire LEE
And on Friday, that previous attack was on Jung's mind as he fled to a shelter with his family after North Korea fired artillery shells near his island, prompting a South Korean live-fire exercise in response.
"There wasn't that much fear inside the shelter. Rather, all the residents came and it was just a chatting atmosphere because they had not seen each other in a long time," he said of the Friday evacuation.
In contrast, in 2010, Jung said his family was unable to salvage any of their belongings from their burning house and had no choice but to run.
"The shells rained down, smoke billowed, and everything was engulfed in flames and destroyed, there was no time to think about anything else," he told AFP.
Having to flee again on Friday, 70-year-old Jung said it felt both strange and "reminiscent" of the 2010 incident.
But "I wasn't too shocked," he said.
"I've even experienced (my house) being directly hit by artillery fire before."
On Saturday, North Korea fired another 60 artillery shells in the area, Seoul's military said, urging Pyongyang to immediately cease "actions that increase tension" along the maritime border.
Yeonpyeong is extremely close -- less than two kilometres (1.5 miles) -- to the de facto maritime border between the two Koreas known as the Northern Limit Line (NLL).
A village on South Korea's Yeonpyeong Island, which is near the 'northern limit line' sea boundary with North Korea
Jung Yeon-je
Although it is controlled by Seoul and on the southern side of the de facto maritime border, the sparsely populated island is much closer to North Korea.
It is only around 42 kilometres away from the North Korean city of Haeju, while being situated about 115 kilometres west of the South Korean capital Seoul.
On a clear day in autumn months, the train station in Haeju, as well as the plumes of smoke rising from the city's factories, can be seen from a hilltop on Yeonpyeong.
Yeonpyeong operates around 10 shelters across the island equipped with medical beds, children's books and gas masks, among other materials.
"We always keep the shelter doors open," an official from the Yeonpyeong district office told AFP at one of the shelters where around 200 residents stayed on Friday.
"Our aim is to ensure that people can seek refuge here whenever necessary."
The streets and residents of Yeonpyeong remained peaceful early on Saturday, with military soldiers visiting hair salons and people enjoying bike rides on quiet roads.
"I always have this understanding in my mind that... (Yeonpyeong Island) is a tense place in the West Sea," a hairdresser and island resident, who asked not to be named, told AFP.
"If we're told to go to a shelter, we should follow the instructions, since we live in this place.
"There's no need to worry excessively. Tomorrow is tomorrow, and today is today."
A man checks a shelter on Yeonpyeong Island
Jung Yeon-je
But resident Kim Na-yeon, 69, said she suffered from trauma stemming from the 2010 incident, and said many elderly women on the island were deeply shaken and filled with fear -- both on Friday and during the 2010 shelling.
Fourteen years ago, Kim said that people sought refuge in a poorly built, rudimentary shelter where they could see dead mice, anxiously awaiting private and public ferries to evacuate them from the area.
On Friday, "I was anxious and didn't know if I should go to sleep or not, so I left a bag by the door without even unpacking it", she told AFP.
Due to its location, around 30 percent of the island's residents are war refugees who hail from Hwanghae Province in North Korea.
"I long to step on the land of my hometown, where my mother rests," reads a sculpture erected on the island in remembrance of the families separated by the Korean War.
For such reasons, resident Jung said he harbours no personal grudge against North Koreans, despite having his house destroyed by Pyongyang's shells.
"Even now, I feel compassion towards the North Korean people."
"I even have this willingness to help them."
Barron's · by Claire LEE
14. Selling Kim Jong-un T-shirt isn't national security crime: police
Good. It should not be. This should be a free speech issue.
Selling Kim Jong-un T-shirt isn't national security crime: police
koreaherald.com · by Yoon Min-sik · January 8, 2024
By Yoon Min-sik
Published : Jan. 8, 2024 - 18:12
Kim Jong-un (Yonhap)
Seoul police on Monday said that they have decided not to press criminal charges against those accused of violating the National Security Act by selling T-shirts bearing a photo of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
"The T-shirts (with Kim's smiling face) cannot be regarded as an expression that benefits the enemy, or that threatens the safety and existence of the state... We (the police) determined the distributors were merely selling them for profit," the Seoul Metropolitan Police Agency said.
Last October, six right-wing activist groups filed a joint civil lawsuit against an individual surnamed Kim for selling novelty T-shirts that bore a smiling face of Kim with the message, "Walk a flowery path, comrade." To "walk a flowery path" is a Korean idiom for wishing someone good luck. The group also filed the same charges against e-commerce giants Naver and Coupang for displaying the t-shirts on their platforms.
They claimed that the accused had violated Article 7 of the National Security Law prohibiting actions that "praise, incite or propagate activities of an anti-government organization," or the distribution and sale of such materials.
The products were taken down from the online platforms after the files were charged.
koreaherald.com · by Yoon Min-sik · January 8, 2024
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
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