Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

“Act as if what you do makes a difference. It does.”

– William James

"The greatest way to live with honor in this world is to be what we pretend to be."

– Socrates

"A superior man is modest in his speech, but exceeds in his actions."

– Confucius

1. Blast at Tennessee military munitions plant kills multiple people

2. 19 Missing in Deadly Blast at Tennessee Explosives Plant

3. What We Know About the Explosion in Central Tennessee

4. The American Troops Tasked With Helping Secure Gaza’s Future

5. Hamas Re-Emerges in Gaza as Palestinians Return to Their Homes

6. Four Things to Know About Beijing’s Rare-Earths Bombshell

7. Qatar Facility at U.S. Air Force Base in Idaho Sparks Controversy

8. Selling the Forges of the Future: How the CCP Gets Its Key Equipment for Making Semiconductors from U.S., Dutch, and Japanese Companies

9. Russia’s Crime–Terror Nexus: Criminality as a Tool of Hybrid Warfare in Europe

10. Cruise missiles are the present and future of warfare

11. Lockheed Martin ramps up PrSM missile output to 400 a year for U.S. Army

12. Ehud Barak: The Gaza Ceasefire Deal Is Trump’s Achievement

13. We Have an Israel-Hamas Deal. Now Comes the Hard Part | Opinion

14. Trump Seeks Cartel Elimination, Not Regime Change, In Venezuela

15. Air Force revamps its special warfare training pipeline

16. Third narco sub found in Solomon Islands, as cocaine and meth trafficking comes to the Pacific

17. Russia is torturing its Ukrainian captives

18. The sinister disappearance of China’s bosses

19. Paragliders: The army's lethal new weapon in Myanmar's civil war

20. What Large States Can Learn from Small States’ Total Defense Strategies

1. Blast at Tennessee military munitions plant kills multiple people

Of course my first thought goes to the possibility of deliberate sabotage but so far there is no reporting on a cause. As I understand it TNT is in short supply as it is and it is only produced in a few facilities.

Blast at Tennessee military munitions plant kills multiple people

Defense News · Travis Loller, The Associated Press · October 10, 2025

McEWEN, Tenn. — An explosion at a Tennessee military munitions plant left multiple people dead and missing on Friday, authorities said, as secondary blasts forced rescuers to keep their distance from the burning field of debris.

The blast, which people reported hearing and feeling miles away, occurred at Accurate Energetic Systems in rural Tennessee. The company’s website says it makes and tests explosives at an eight-building facility that sprawls across wooded hills near Bucksnort, a town about 60 miles (97 kilometers) southwest of Nashville.

“We do have several people at this time unaccounted for. We are trying to be mindful of families and that situation,” Humphreys County Sheriff Chris Davis said at a news conference. “We do have some that are deceased.”

The cause of the explosion, which Davis called “devastating,” was not immediately known, and the investigation could take days, the sheriff said.

Aerial footage of the aftermath by WTVF-TV showed the explosion had apparently obliterated one of the facility’s hilltop buildings, leaving only smoldering wreckage and the burnt-out shells of vehicles.

The sheriff added that although the scene was secure from large explosions, smaller ones may still be heard.

Emergency crews were initially unable to enter the plant because of continuing detonations, Hickman County Advanced EMT David Stewart said by phone. He didn’t have any details on casualties.

Accurate Energetic Systems, based in nearby McEwen, did not immediately respond to a phone message seeking comment Friday morning.

“This is a tragedy for our community,” McEwen Mayor Brad Rachford said in an email. He referred further comment to a county official.

Residents in Lobelville, a 20-minute drive from the scene, said they felt their homes shake and some people captured the loud boom of the explosion on their home cameras.

The blast rattled Gentry Stover from his sleep.

“I thought the house had collapsed with me inside of it,” he said by phone. “I live very close to Accurate and I realized about 30 seconds after I woke up that it had to have been that.”

State Rep. Jody Barrett, a Republican from the neighboring town of Dickson, was worried about the possible economic impact because the plant is a key employer in the area.

“We live probably 15 miles as the crow flies and we absolutely heard it at the house,” Barrett said. “It sounded like something going through the roof of our house.”

The Tennessee Emergency Management Agency confirmed there were injuries but wasn’t sharing any numbers because the Department of Health hasn’t confirmed them, spokesperson Kristin Coulter said by telephone. TEMA district coordinators have deployed to the area at the request of Hickman County, she said.

Associated Press writers Sarah Brumfield, in Cockeysville, Maryland; Kathy McCormack in Concord, New Hampshire; and Kimberlee Kruesi in Providence, Rhode Island, contributed to this report.

2. 19 Missing in Deadly Blast at Tennessee Explosives Plant

19 Missing in Deadly Blast at Tennessee Explosives Plant

Authorities confirm fatalities at the Accurate Energetic Systems facility, which makes explosives for commercial and military use

https://www.wsj.com/us-news/tennessee-explosion-accurate-energetic-systems-23d64ca2

By Joseph De Avila

Follow and Joseph Pisani

Updated Oct. 10, 2025 4:34 pm ET

What was produced and stored at the plant?

Accurate Energetic Systems employs around 75 people on its campus, spread across five production facilities and a lab. The workers load, assemble and pack explosive charges and munitions.

According to its website, the company produces TNT, or trinitrotoluene, which is one of the most commonly used explosives for military and commercial applications.

One of the products made at the plant is a series of booster charges made of TNT encased in small neon-green cylinders, according to photos on the company’s website. Aerial videos of the site show numerous small fires burning amid rubble, along with what appear to be dozens of small canisters on the ground that are similarly bright green. TNT booster charges play a key role in commercial blasting and quarrying.

The company also produces other explosives, including HMX, used in various types of ordnance; PETN, used in detonating cord and in the mining industry; and RDX, a main component of C-4 explosive blocks commonly used by the military. The industrial production of these types of explosives can produce large amounts of hazardous waste that requires careful handling and proper disposal.

What We Know About the Explosion in Central Tennessee

NY Times · Ashley Ahn · October 11, 2025

The blast happened at a plant owned by Accurate Energetic Systems. Officials did not specify a death toll but said 19 people were missing.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/11/us/tennessee-plant-explosion-what-we-know.html

Listen to this article · 4:33 min Learn more

Sheriff Chris Davis of Humphreys County speaking at a news conference about the Accurate Energetic Systems explosion on Friday.Credit...Austin Anthony for The New York Times

Oct. 11, 2025, 5:02 a.m. ET

A powerful explosion that tore through a central Tennessee ammunition plant on Friday morning has left 19 people missing, putting the small rural communities surrounding the facility on edge.

The authorities were still reaching out to affected families and said the investigation was still in progress as of Friday evening. Officials said several people had died in the explosion but did not specify how many.

“Anytime you have a situation like this, there’s grief involved,” said Sheriff Chris Davis of Humphreys County, Tenn., describing the conversations he’d had with some of the families of the missing. The situation is “hell,” he added.

Here’s what we know about the blast.

When and where did it happen?

The explosion occurred at 7:45 a.m. Central time at a plant owned by Accurate Energetic Systems, which produces explosives and demolition charges for the U.S. military.

The facility is roughly 60 miles southwest of Nashville on a sprawling 1,300-acre campus straddling Hickman and Humphreys Counties in rural Tennessee.

Witnesses said the explosion was so powerful that it rattled homes at least a dozen miles away and generated a plume of smoke large enough to show up on the weather radar of a Nashville television station.

There was about half a square mile of damage from the explosion, Sheriff Davis said at a news conference on Friday.

Three people received treatment for “minor injuries” from the blast at TriStar medical facilities in Dickson, Tenn., said Casey Stapp, a spokeswoman for TriStar Health. Two people were released later in the day, while one person was still receiving treatment in an emergency room as of Friday evening.

What caused the explosion?

Sheriff Davis said the cause of the explosion was being investigated by several agencies, including the F.B.I. and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives. He added that the investigation was likely to take “many days.”

He said that while the munitions in the plant had chemical components, residents near the site of the blast did not need to take any further precautions.

What was produced and stored at the plant?

Accurate Energetic Systems employs around 75 people on its campus, spread across five production facilities and a lab. The workers load, assemble and pack explosive charges and munitions.

According to its website, the company produces TNT, or trinitrotoluene, which is one of the most commonly used explosives for military and commercial applications.

One of the products made at the plant is a series of booster charges made of TNT encased in small neon-green cylinders, according to photos on the company’s website. Aerial videos of the site show numerous small fires burning amid rubble, along with what appear to be dozens of small canisters on the ground that are similarly bright green. TNT booster charges play a key role in commercial blasting and quarrying.

The company also produces other explosives, including HMX, used in various types of ordnance; PETN, used in detonating cord and in the mining industry; and RDX, a main component of C-4 explosive blocks commonly used by the military. The industrial production of these types of explosives can produce large amounts of hazardous waste that requires careful handling and proper disposal.

What do we know about the community near the site of the blast?

The explosion has shaken the small, tight-knit communities in Hickman and Humphreys Counties, which have a combined population of about 44,000.

One of the communities is known as Bucksnort, where there are winding dirt roads, ample hunting ground and just a handful of businesses. Steven Anderson, who runs a trout farm there, said there were only three points of interest in town — the trout farm, the munitions plant and a gas station with a convenience store where he said workers from the plant often eat lunch.

Sheriff Davis said the circumstances were excruciatingly challenging for the community, including law enforcement officers responding to the explosion, some of whom personally knew some of the affected families. “You want me to be honest? It’s hell,” the sheriff said at a news conference. “It’s hell on us. It’s hell on everybody involved.”

Gov. Bill Lee of Tennessee asked that residents “join us in prayer for the families impacted by this tragic incident.”

Ashley Ahn covers breaking news for The Times from New York.

Let me make an unpopular comment. Some would say this is how it starts: military advisors to Vietnam in 1955, US military intervention in Somalia in December 1992

Excerpts:

Nearly 200 troops under Adm. Brad Cooper of U.S. Central Command are due to arrive in Israel by Sunday to establish a coordination center that will monitor the cease-fire and organize the flow of humanitarian aid, logistics and security assistance to Gaza.

U.S. officials reaffirmed Friday that there are no plans for those troops—mainly planners, transportation and engineering specialists, and security experts—to set foot in Gaza.

...

The Trump administration hasn’t yet detailed how large the International Stabilization Force might be, how long it would remain deployed, or how the U.S. would assist it from outside Gaza.

“We’re already talking to multiple governments about standing up that ISF,” a senior U.S. official told reporters Thursday. “With Admiral Cooper, it’s going to become a lot easier.”

The White House has emphasized to its MAGA constituency that no U.S. troops will enter the enclave. “No U.S. troops are intended to go into Gaza,” a second senior official said. “It’s really just to help create the joint control center and integrate the other security forces going in.”

The U.S. still has a small contingent in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula as part of the force monitoring the Camp David accords between Egypt and Israel.

The American Troops Tasked With Helping Secure Gaza’s Future

A stabilization force will run alongside efforts to form a governing apparatus for the enclave

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/gaza-rebuilding-government-next-e271530b

By Michael R. Gordon

Follow and Summer Said

Oct. 10, 2025 10:00 pm ET

Palestinians gathered on the coastal road near Wadi Gaza after the cease-fire announcement. Abdel Kareem Hana/Associated Press

The deployment of American troops to Israel this weekend marks the start of an extraordinarily complex effort to secure a fragile peace in Gaza and establish a framework to govern the enclave.

Nearly 200 troops under Adm. Brad Cooper of U.S. Central Command are due to arrive in Israel by Sunday to establish a coordination center that will monitor the cease-fire and organize the flow of humanitarian aid, logistics and security assistance to Gaza.

U.S. officials reaffirmed Friday that there are no plans for those troops—mainly planners, transportation and engineering specialists, and security experts—to set foot in Gaza.

Even so, officials are already discussing the creation of a thousands-strong “International Stabilization Force,” whose mission would be to secure the enclave. Its composition has yet to be determined, but it could draw on troops from the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Turkey, Morocco, Indonesia and possibly several Central Asian nations.

The U.S. role is notable for an administration that has long shunned nation-building missions abroad and has emphasized defending the Western Hemisphere. But current and former officials say an American political and military role is essential to cement the cease-fire and turn the first phase of the White House’s Gaza plan into a lasting peace.

Israeli soldiers near the border with Gaza this week. Amir Levy/Getty Images

The effort to recruit and support the stabilization force will run alongside plans to form a governing body for Gaza that would provide essential services after the conflict that began when Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages.

Under Trump’s plan, Gaza would be administered by a technocratic Palestinian committee overseen by a “Board of Peace.” Trump would chair the board, and former British Prime Minister Tony Blair would also have a role.

Assembling that technocratic committee could prove challenging. About 30,000 technical, administrative and security personnel in Gaza are on the Palestinian Authority’s payroll and could potentially help maintain essential services and begin a transition to Palestinian administration of the enclave, as envisioned in Trump’s plan, a former U.S. official said. Trump’s earlier talk of relocating Palestinians out of Gaza—which drew widespread regional criticism—has been shelved.

But political divisions could complicate governance plans. The U.A.E., unlike Saudi Arabia, has insisted that the Palestinian Authority be fundamentally reformed before assuming any substantial role in Gaza’s eventual administration.

Establishing an international stabilization force faces numerous challenges, starting with efforts to disarm Hamas. Diplomats have discussed a process of “decommissioning” weapons, a term that echoes the agreement that ended the violence in Northern Ireland under Blair’s leadership.

Those “decommissioning” arrangements are expected to be worked out in the next phase of negotiations, likely to begin after the hostages are released.

Preliminary planning for a stabilization force during the Biden administration envisioned a U.S. role involving logistics, transport, intelligence and support. Those efforts were to be overseen by an American general based in Egypt, the presumed entry point for the Arab and other international forces deploying to Gaza.

That approach reflected recognition that the U.S. military has unique capabilities for organizing expeditionary operations and answered Arab appeals for American involvement. But the Biden administration ruled out putting troops in Gaza and instead considered having an Egyptian or Emirati commander lead the force.

The Trump administration hasn’t yet detailed how large the International Stabilization Force might be, how long it would remain deployed, or how the U.S. would assist it from outside Gaza.

“We’re already talking to multiple governments about standing up that ISF,” a senior U.S. official told reporters Thursday. “With Admiral Cooper, it’s going to become a lot easier.”

The White House has emphasized to its MAGA constituency that no U.S. troops will enter the enclave. “No U.S. troops are intended to go into Gaza,” a second senior official said. “It’s really just to help create the joint control center and integrate the other security forces going in.”

The U.S. still has a small contingent in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula as part of the force monitoring the Camp David accords between Egypt and Israel.

A central question among diplomats and former officials is whether Trump and his team will sustain the diplomatic pressure that led to the imminent hostage release. “Will this be sustained beyond the declaration of a Trumpian victory?” one former official said. “All of this will take extraordinary leverage to make happen.”

Write to Michael R. Gordon at michael.gordon@wsj.com and Summer Said at summer.said@wsj.com

5. Hamas Re-Emerges in Gaza as Palestinians Return to Their Homes

It goes without saying that things are going to be enormously complex in Gaza.

Hamas Re-Emerges in Gaza as Palestinians Return to Their Homes

Palestinians are awaiting a surge of humanitarian aid; Israel prepares for release of hostages

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/hamas-re-emerges-in-gaza-as-palestinians-return-to-their-homes-70d69c1e

By Sudarsan Raghavan

Follow and Suha Ma’ayeh

Oct. 11, 2025 7:00 am ET

Palestinians displaced to southern Gaza by Israel’s invasion make their way north after a cease-fire. mahmoud Issa/Reuters

Quick Summary

Hamas police are re-emerging in Gaza, and Palestinians are returning home following an Israeli troop withdrawal and cease-fire.View more

Hamas police are re-emerging on the streets of Gaza, and tens of thousands of Palestinians are returning to their homes following the withdrawal of Israeli troops and the implementation of a cease-fire that is bringing about an end to two years of war.

Palestinians are awaiting a surge of humanitarian aid as Israel prepared for a handover of about 20 living hostages held by Hamas. Both are expected in the coming days as part of a deal orchestrated by President Trump and Arab and Muslim countries.

The United Nations said on Friday about 180,000 Palestinians had begun returning home from the areas they had been displaced to. Many will find little remains, as Israel has razed large parts of the Gaza Strip.

Hamas police could be seen on the streets of Gaza on Saturday, Reuters footage showed. That followed a statement by Hamas on Friday announcing plans to deploy internal security forces and reassert its authority.

“I saw them deploying noticeably in the markets and they are keeping traffic moving,” said 22 year-old Hazem Srour, of Hamas police in Deir al-Balah, a city in the center of the enclave.

A Palestinian family and their belongings make their way to Gaza City. eyad baba/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

A satellite image shows destruction in Gaza City. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

The early re-emergence of Hamas could pose problems for the deal, which requires the group to give up government and military control of Gaza and to demilitarize.

The deal to end the war is broken into two parts. The first, which both sides are implementing, requires Israel to withdraw from parts of Gaza, surge in humanitarian aid and release thousands of Palestinian prisoners in exchange for around 20 living Israeli hostages and the bodies of around 28 more.

The second part of the deal is expected to be far more complex. It calls for Hamas to disarm and for the formation of an interim government to oversee Gaza, as well as an influx of international troops. Negotiations over the second phase could start as early as Tuesday, once the first phase is completed.

On Saturday, the U.N. and other humanitarian groups were preparing to flood Gaza with food and other necessities. Between 400 and 600 trucks were expected to enter to bolster existing aid deliveries and help alleviate two years of war and hardship.

It remained unclear when they would enter the enclave. The Israeli unit charged with humanitarian coordination, known as COGAT, said the surge in aid could take several days to start, reflecting ongoing discussions on the logistics of distributions and other concerns.

“We’re ready to implement our plan with the increase of aid as soon as possible,” said Olga Cherevko, a spokesperson for the U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. “We hope it will start imminently.”

Write to Sudarsan Raghavan at sudarsan.raghavan@wsj.com

6. Four Things to Know About Beijing’s Rare-Earths Bombshell

Four Things to Know About Beijing’s Rare-Earths Bombshell

China threatens to withhold indispensable tech materials ahead of Trump-Xi summit

https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/four-things-to-know-about-beijings-rare-earths-bombshell-ec6d1b51?mod=hp_lead_pos2

By Stu Woo

Follow and Jon Emont

Oct. 10, 2025 8:30 pm ET

A laborer works at the site of a rare-earth metals mine in Jiangxi province, China. Jie Zhao/Corbis/Getty Images

Ahead of a potential meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Beijing dropped a bombshell: China was further restricting access to the supplies that American companies need for computer chips, cars and other technology. The move gives China leverage ahead of expected trade talks with Washington.

Here’s what to know.

Which supplies did China restrict and why are they important?

They are called rare earths, which are elements in the ground. While not actually rare, they are difficult to extract because they are scattered and mixed among other rocks and minerals. Few places have a rich concentration of the most sought-after rare earths. One such area is southern China, part of the reason the country supplies around 90% of the world’s rare earths.

One of the most critical rare earths is dysprosium, atomic number 66 on the periodic table. If the tech industry were a bakery, dysprosium would be like baking powder: It is used in small quantities but essential for enabling electric-car motors, wind turbines, military systems and computer-chip machinery.

What exactly has China done?

China’s Commerce Ministry on Thursday expanded previous export controls by adding a seemingly onerous requirement: Any company—in China or abroad—must get Chinese permission to export certain products that derive more than 0.1% of their value from a rare earth.

The ministry also expanded the list of export-restricted rare earths, and banned their export for use by foreign militaries. Meanwhile, China on Friday targeted other American interests by imposing port fees on U.S. ships and opening an antitrust investigation into Qualcomm. It is all part of Beijing’s campaign to fight back against Washington’s own trade curbs.

Which businesses will be affected?

That depends on which products are affected, and the rules aren’t clear. They might target just rare-earth materials and rare-earth magnets, or they might hit a range of parts and components that have some rare earths inside. The ambiguity may be purposeful to give the Chinese side flexibility during negotiations with the U.S.

Most finished consumer goods, such as laptops and smartphones, will likely fall short of the threshold, said research firm Capital Economics, but intermediate goods such as motors may exceed it.

China said it would give particular scrutiny to export of the restricted items if they are intended to help build advanced chips or support artificial-intelligence research. Earlier rare-earth restrictions already hit automakers such as Ford, and the targeting of AI and semiconductors was a reminder that China is trying to curb American AI chip leader Nvidia.

Some analysts say the new rules suggest that companies with both military and civilian businesses, such as Boeing, could be denied access to rare earths for even civilian purposes.

Will China go through with it—and what can the U.S. do?

Many analysts believe the new restrictions are a negotiating tactic by Beijing ahead of trade talks, but it is likely to retain some rare-earth curbs for the long term. In response, Trump said he would impose 100% tariffs on China by Nov. 1 and suggested he may snub Xi at a conference in South Korea late this month, when they are supposed to meet. The U.S. also has leverage over China because it produces chips needed for artificial-intelligence processing and industrial products like jet engines—things Beijing has yet to master.

The U.S. is building its own rare-earth magnet supply chain. Trump suggested the U.S. may stop importing Chinese rare earths. Rare-earth deposits are available outside China, but matching China’s mining and processing infrastructure will take years.

Write to Stu Woo at Stu.Woo@wsj.com and Jon Emont at jonathan.emont@wsj.com

7. Qatar Facility at U.S. Air Force Base in Idaho Sparks Controversy

On the one hand I guess this has appearance issues. But it is not like we have not long had foreign forces training in the US at US bases. I recall bases with Singporean and German aircraft present.

I am sure a journalist in our Fourth Estate will do the research and publish an article outlining the long years for foreign military presence in the US (that has been quite routine). I will look for it.

Qatar Facility at U.S. Air Force Base in Idaho Sparks Controversy

MAGA influencers criticized a training agreement announced by Defense Secretary Hegseth

https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/qatar-facility-at-u-s-air-force-base-in-idaho-sparks-controversy-8c9f8b4e

By Michael R. Gordon

Oct. 10, 2025 9:24 pm ET

Qatari Defense Minister Sheikh Saoud bin Abdulrahman al-Thani with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at the Pentagon on Friday. alex wroblewski/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

A Friday announcement by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth about a new training arrangement with Qatar’s Air Force has sparked a backlash from President Trump’s supporters, prompting him to issue a clarification later in the day.

During a visit by Qatar’s defense minister, Hegseth announced a new facility that would be built at the Mountain Home Air Force Base in Elmore County, Idaho, to host and train Qatari pilots on U.S.-made F-15s.

The U.S. is building a “Qatari Emiri Air Force facility,” Hegseth said, “to enhance our combined training, increase the lethality and interoperability.”

Qatar, a Persian Gulf nation with little airspace of its own, has long cultivated ties with the U.S. military. Its Al Udeid Air Base serves as a platform for American warplanes in the Middle East and hosts the U.S.’s air war command center for the region. Qatar also served as an important hub when the U.S. pulled out of Afghanistan.

The new facility, U.S. Air Force officials said, would include hangars for the F-15QA, the Qatari version of the jet it purchased through foreign military sales.

But Qatar has also been a bane of American conservatives because of its history in hosting Hamas’s political leadership and its support for other Islamist groups.

It didn’t take long for MAGA pundits to react. Laura Loomer, the right-wing influencer, warned that the U.S. was “training the funders of Hamas.”

“What happened the last time we let Muslims learn how to fly planes on US soil!” she wrote on X, alluding to the 9/11 attacks.

“Qatar has spent $100 billion buying influence in the U.S., and it’s paying off,” conservative commentator Amy Malek said on X. “I am in shock that Washington would approve a deal letting Qatar, Hamas’s #1 financier, open a Qatari Air Force facility on U.S. soil.”

By the end of the day, Hegseth clarified on social media: “Qatar will not have their own base in the United States—not anything like a base. We control the existing base, like we do with all partners.”

Other countries have similar training arrangements at U.S. Air Force bases. Mountain Home Air Force Base already hosts Singapore’s air force F-15SG jet fighters.

Trump has sought a close relationship with Qatar, which served as mediator with Hamas in the negotiations that ultimately resulted in a cease-fire in Gaza. Trump accepted a $400 million plane that Qatar donated, which after extensive modifications, is expected to serve as Air Force One.

In a recent executive order, Trump praised Qatar as a “steadfast ally” and said that the U.S. would regard any attack on Qatar as a “threat to the peace and security of the United States.” The Sept. 29 order followed Israel’s Sept. 9 airstrike against Hamas political leaders in Doha, Qatar’s capital.

Some former officials have also questioned whether Trump’s ties with Qatar and the country’s growing influence will undermine U.S. relations with the United Arab Emirates, one of Qatar’s regional rivals and a Gulf state that is crucial for plans to stabilize Gaza.

Write to Michael R. Gordon at michael.gordon@wsj.com

8. Selling the Forges of the Future: How the CCP Gets Its Key Equipment for Making Semiconductors from U.S., Dutch, and Japanese Companies

Selling the Forges of the Future: How the CCP Gets Its Key Equipment for Making Semiconductors from U.S., Dutch, and Japanese Companies

https://smallwarsjournal.com/2025/10/09/selling-the-forges-of-the-future-how-the-ccp-gets-its-key-equipment-for-making-semiconductors-from-u-s-dutch-and-japanese-companies/

by SWJ Staff

10.09.2025 at 11:44pm

SELLING THE FORGES OF THE FUTURE: How the CCP Gets Its Key Equipment for Making Semiconductors from U.S., Dutch, and Japanese Companies

Download the report here.

“The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is straining with all its might to build a domestic, self-sufficient, semiconductor manufacturing industry in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). To do this, the PRC has been acquiring semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) produced by U.S. and allied companies to build in semiconductor fabrication facilities (“fabs”) in the PRC that produce a wide range of semiconductor chips, including advanced, foundational, and legacy chips. The ability to design and produce semiconductors lies at the heart of the technology competition with China, and SME represents a crucial chokepoint that the U.S. and our allies currently have over China. As the U.S. government works with our allies and partners and plots the course ahead on export-control policy and related actions, this crucial chokepoint must be preserved, not squandered.

The United States and our allies have taken some steps to restrict advanced SME from being sold to anyone in the PRC and a broader set of SME from being sold to some particularly threatening PRC entities, but China is still buying vast quantities of highly sophisticated SME from the United States, Japan, and the Netherlands. This investigation did not seek to address illegal activity. The findings discussed below do not claim or posit that any Toolmaker has violated applicable U.S., Dutch, or Japanese laws. To be effective, SME export controls must apply to all of the PRC, not just individual entities, and must encompass any components or other inputs that support the production of advanced or foundational semiconductors.

The PRC’s procurement of SME presents military, trade, economic security, and human rights threats:

Military. The PRC will manufacture chips for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) weapon systems that could be used to kill American and allied soldiers, sailors, airmen, and marines, especially via the PLA’s “intelligentized” warfare concept leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing.
Trade. China will build a domestic, vertically integrated chip manufacturing industry, rendering its military and economy resistant to the effects of future computing-related export restrictions by the United States and our allies.
Economic Security. China will gain an economically dominant chip manufacturing position in both legacy and leading-edge chips for current and future strategic industries with national security implications, including AI.
Human Rights. As the Select Committee has documented in previous investigations, the CCP uses both AI and high-performance computing to violate human rights domestically and promote digital authoritarianism globally.”

Tags: export controls, House Select Committee on the Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party, human rights, industrial espionage, Japan, Netherlands, PRC, Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), semiconductors, SWJ Documents and Reports

About The Author

SWJ Staff
SWJ Staff searches the internet daily for articles and posts that we think are of great interests to our readers.

9. Russia’s Crime–Terror Nexus: Criminality as a Tool of Hybrid Warfare in Europe

Russia’s Crime–Terror Nexus: Criminality as a Tool of Hybrid Warfare in Europe

https://smallwarsjournal.com/2025/10/10/russias-crime-terror-nexus-criminality-as-a-tool-of-hybrid-warfare-in-europe/

by SWJ Staff

10.10.2025 at 03:51pm

Russia’s Crime–Terror Nexus: Criminality as a Tool of Hybrid Warfare in Europe | International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT)

Download the report here.

About the report

“This report takes stock of Russian hybrid warfare in Europe in the context of its war of aggression against Ukraine. While doing so, it offers more than a catalogue of kinetic incidents attributed to Moscow; it focuses on the perpetrators and situates their actions within Russia’s longstanding reliance on hybrid warfare. This analysis highlights that many of these actors have criminal backgrounds and demonstrates how Russia has built its own state-driven “crime-terror nexus.” The phenomenon recalls earlier patterns seen in terrorist organisations such as ISIS, which recruited Europe’s criminals into violent campaigns under the guise of ideological redemption. This time, however, the state itself actively recruits and grooms socially marginalised, often Russian-speaking individuals residing in Europe to assist in state terrorism against European societies.

This strategy complements the “spook-gangster”7 nexus that has for years underpinned Russia’s governance and operationalisation of foreign policy. Since the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, this nexus has become even more instrumental in mitigating the economic and geopolitical consequences of Moscow’s aggression.

The report shows the extent to which criminality – whether through direct reliance on criminals to conduct attacks or through the “spook-gangster” nexus – constitutes a central pillar of Russia’s hybrid warfare. It opens with an overview of the phenomenon and traces Russia’s experience with hybrid tactics back to at least the 1920s. It then explores Moscow’s enduring use of criminality as a tool of domestic control and foreign policy, with particular emphasis on the post-2022 period. A brief comparative perspective highlights how other hostile state actors similarly integrate criminality into hybrid campaigns waged globally. All of these components build toward the report’s central focus: an assessment of Russia’s kinetic campaign as an integral part of its broader hybrid warfare, and of the actors enabling it. The final section provides practical recommendations to inform policies for both national authorities and EU institutions.”

Tags: Hybrid Warfare, International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT), Russia, Russian hybrid warfare, Russo-Ukrainian War, SWJ Documents and Reports

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SWJ Staff
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10. Cruise missiles are the present and future of warfare

Cruise missiles are the present and future of warfare

Defense News · Michael Bohnert · October 9, 2025

There are two competing narratives about the future of warfare. For nearly the past two years, drones and artillery have been hailed as the way forward. The June 2025 Iran-Israel war revived the view that stealth warplanes are the future.

These are two fundamentally different views, however, neither truly unseats the consistently outperforming and cost effective cruise missile.

In the winter of February 2022, the Russian invasion of Ukraine was stopped by artillery, heavy infantry weapons, most notably MANPADs and Javelin missiles, and Russian incompetence. As the war dragged on and expensive weapons became scarce, remote controlled aircraft hobbyists developed weaponized drones.

While pioneered by ISIS in the 2010s, these hobbyists developed a variety of formidable single-use and multi-use attack drones. By 2025, drones have dominated land and naval warfare in the conflict, inflicting the majority of casualties. Drones were even used far from the borders of Ukraine to strike Russia’s prized strategic bomber fleet. Traditional weapons systems were relics of the past, drones appeared to be the future.

Israel’s air campaign ran counter to this narrative. Quick precision strikes early in the conflict combined with stealth F-35 fighter jets enabled Israel to effectively fly unopposed over Iran. Israeli special operations forces appeared unchecked by Iranian forces. Night and day, Israel hit Iranian military targets, crippling Iran’s ability to wage war. Israel and its partners used advanced missile defenses and air strikes to offset Iran’s formidable ballistic missiles. The conflict quickly ended after American B-2 stealth bombers damaged key Iranian nuclear weapons sites.

Neither of the competing narratives fully captures the future of warfare.

One capability has been key in almost every conflict since 1990, the low-altitude cruise missile and, by extension, the low-altitude strike drone.

Most U.S. conflicts have begun with low altitude cruise missile strikes, most notably with the famed Tomahawk missile. While expensive, these missiles cripple air defenses, command and control, and other critical targets which enable any other means of further attacks. Their high rate of successfully neutralizing these valuable targets more than offsets the costs of the missiles themselves.

By flying low, these precision munitions are survivable by avoiding detection by enemy radar and attack from air defenses which typically requires line-of-sight to the target. The vastness of most countries limits any cost-effective air defenses as tens of thousands of air defense systems would be required to protect even modest sized countries. This survivability by geography combined with the long ranges of these missiles enables their significantly greater survivability and success than virtually any alternative.

Beyond the U.S., the U.K., France and Russia have successfully employed cruise missiles early in conflicts to enable future operations.

Given the expense of cruise missiles, lower cost but slower alternatives have filled a similar role. The Israeli Harpy, Iranian Shahed and Ukrainian FP-1 are effectively slow cruise missiles that utilize propellers in lieu of turbofans. While often referred to as one-way attack or strike drones, these are fundamentally no different than their faster cruise missile counterparts.

As seen in the Iran-Israeli, Russo-Ukrainian, and Azerbaijan-Armenian conflicts, low-altitude strike drones have severely damaged military targets and critical infrastructure with devastating results.

Low-altitude cruise missiles and strikes drones now have a 35-year history of destroyed air defenses, shattered command and control, obliterated munition storages and ruined infrastructure such as power facilities and oil refineries.

Even the best defenses have been incapable of stopping this threat. The larger the country, the less defensible. Geography and physics are on the side of these weapons. One need not wonder why the U.S., Russia and now China have invested so much in submarine-launched cruise missiles; the added element of surprise provided by submarines makes cruise missiles and similar weapons the ultimate conventional deterrent.

The commencement of strikes early in a conflict enables the employing country the opportunity to operate as it sees fit, with traditional ground invasion, drone combat, air campaign, or no further military action. Given the rapidly reducing costs and lower barriers to acquire and produce cruise missiles, these advantages will only grow in importance moving forward.

Regardless of what develops as the future of warfare, low-altitude cruise missiles and strike drones will always be the opening salvo. Russia demonstrating the ability to cripple the Ukrainian power grid and Ukraine’s ability to ravage Russian oil production are only glimpses of what should be expected in future conflicts.

The combination of high survivability, success, and cost effectiveness will result in cruise missiles and their strike drone counterparts continuing to be the go-to first strike option for the U.S. and other major military powers.

Michael Bohnert is an engineer at RAND who focuses on defense industrial bases and acquisition of naval, air, unmanned, and air defense systems.

11. Lockheed Martin ramps up PrSM missile output to 400 a year for U.S. Army

Lockheed Martin ramps up PrSM missile output to 400 a year for U.S. Army

10 Oct, 2025 - 10:10 Defense News Army 2025

Lockheed Martin has begun preparing for large-scale production of the Precision Strike Missile, or PrSM, following U.S. Army approval to move the program into full-rate manufacturing. The company plans to produce up to 400 missiles per year to rapidly expand long-range strike capacity for HIMARS and MLRS units.

North Bethesda, Maryland, United States, October 9, 2025 - Lockheed Martin is accelerating plans to build as many as 400 Precision Strike Missiles annually under the U.S. Army’s newly approved production phase, signaling one of the fastest missile ramp-ups in modern Army procurement. The move follows the Army’s Milestone C decision and marks the start of full-rate manufacturing for the long-range precision weapon that will equip HIMARS and M270 rocket launchers worldwide.

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armyrecognition.com · Administrator

This acquisition milestone follows just months after Lockheed secured a $4.94 billion contract from the U.S. Army, designed to accelerate the shift from prototype production to large-scale manufacturing. With Early Operational Capability (EOC) missiles already in the field, the Pentagon has moved from concept to committed deployment in record time.

While the production target of 400 PrSM missiles per year may appear ambitious, Lockheed Martin has confirmed that the ramp-up is already underway. According to program officials, industrial investments began well before the Milestone C approval. The company’s Camden, Arkansas facility has expanded its production lines to support continuous missile integration. Meanwhile, critical suppliers are delivering long-lead components at accelerated rates to prevent bottlenecks. The company states that this production tempo is aligned with both U.S. Army demand and growing international interest, especially from Australia and several NATO allies.

From a force structure standpoint, the impact of 400 PrSMs annually is considerable. Each missile delivers more than double the range of the legacy ATACMS system, with a slimmer design and modular upgrades that offer greater flexibility. Crucially, PrSM is compatible with the M142 HIMARS and M270A2 MLRS launchers already deployed worldwide. This compatibility allows field commanders to double their launcher firepower without requiring new vehicles or retraining personnel.

A single HIMARS now carries two PrSMs per launch pod, effectively doubling its deep-strike capacity while maintaining its shoot-and-scoot agility. In modern high-threat environments, where survivability and mobility are essential, this enhances the Army’s ability to neutralize critical enemy infrastructure, disrupt command and control nodes, and dominate the battlespace across multiple domains. Combined with satellite-based targeting and persistent intelligence-surveillance-reconnaissance (ISR) feeds, PrSM-equipped units can now deliver strategic effects at tactical ranges.

PrSM vs. ATACMS: A Generational Leap in U.S. Fires Capability

The Precision Strike Missile represents a clean break from the aging MGM-140 ATACMS, which was first fielded in the 1990s. ATACMS had a range of approximately 300 kilometers, used a single large missile per pod, and employed a variety of warhead configurations, including cluster munitions that are now restricted under current international norms.

In contrast, PrSM features a streamlined design that enables two missiles to be loaded per pod on existing launchers. It extends strike range to over 500 kilometers and is guided by a combination of GPS and inertial navigation systems. Its open architecture design allows for modular upgrades to guidance, warheads, or seekers, ensuring adaptability for future missions.

Tactically, this provides exponential advantages. A HIMARS battery that once delivered six ATACMS missiles can now deliver 12 PrSMs, reaching twice the distance. This leap in firepower allows Army commanders to conduct high-value strikes into denied environments, including those protected by advanced air defenses, without relying on manned aircraft or joint fires coordination.

As Lockheed Martin emphasized during the October 8 announcement, PrSM marks the most significant transformation of U.S. ground-based fires since the end of the Cold War. The system has already been designated as a core priority by Army Futures Command, and it anchors the broader Long-Range Precision Fires (LRPF) modernization portfolio.

HIMARS Launchers Become Strategic Strike Tools

The HIMARS and M270 MLRS launchers are no longer just theater artillery platforms. With PrSM integration, they now offer strategic-level strike capabilities. Previously, the HIMARS platform was most often used to fire GMLRS rockets, which were effective but limited in range to around 70 to 90 kilometers. PrSM extends that reach by a factor of five, without any fundamental change to the launcher or its logistical support.

This transformation is especially critical in contested zones like the Indo-Pacific and Eastern Europe. In these environments, the ability to remain dispersed while delivering concentrated firepower is vital. HIMARS, with its wheeled chassis and air transportability, is highly mobile and can deploy rapidly to austere environments. Now, with PrSM, that same launcher can deliver strategic effects deep into enemy-controlled territory from standoff positions.

This leap forward also means the Army does not need to procure new launch platforms. Instead, it multiplies the effectiveness of the launchers already in service. The shift dramatically reduces procurement costs while delivering immediate operational impact.

Strategic Imperative for a Modern Battlefield

The urgency behind the PrSM missile is not just about performance. It reflects the Army’s understanding that modern warfare demands rapid, precise, long-range strike capabilities that can operate in denied and degraded environments.

With adversaries like Russia and China fielding advanced layered air defense systems and operating under anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategies, traditional fires platforms are at growing risk. PrSM enables Army formations to:

- Strike critical infrastructure well behind enemy lines without relying on air assets

- Engage targets before joint forces arrive, shaping the theater in advance

- Destroy enemy air defenses to enable follow-on operations

- Sustain deterrent pressure by offering constant, ground-based precision fires

Recent conflicts, especially in Ukraine, have demonstrated that artillery and missile stockpiles can be rapidly depleted. The PrSM program addresses not only capability gaps but also logistical and industrial readiness. Producing 400 missiles annually ensures the Army can maintain both operational reserves and rapid replenishment capacity in a prolonged conflict.

U.S. and Allied Integration in a Fires-Centric Strategy

Lockheed Martin has confirmed that production is not limited to U.S. Army requirements. Foreign partners are expected to begin receiving PrSM through Foreign Military Sales agreements. Australia, under its LAND 8113 program, is among the first aligned nations to incorporate HIMARS and PrSM into its long-range fires doctrine. Eastern European NATO members are also exploring acquisition pathways, given the heightened threat environment along NATO’s eastern flank.

This allied adoption not only strengthens interoperability but also expands industrial demand, helping to stabilize the supply base and reduce unit costs over time. As partners join the PrSM ecosystem, the strategic deterrent value of the missile is further amplified across regions.

Overcoming the Challenges of Mass Production

Lockheed Martin’s production ramp-up to 400 PrSM missiles per year is a bold target and not without challenges. Scaling production of a precision-guided weapon system at this pace requires exacting coordination across a multi-tier supply chain. The company has instituted dual quality assurance cells, enhanced factory analytics, and real-time inspection systems to monitor integration tolerances and eliminate defects early.

The Army, for its part, is tightening its oversight as well. Acceptance testing, component traceability, and environmental stress testing are being intensified to ensure that performance remains consistent as volume increases.

Beyond technical concerns, the risk of industrial overextension remains. Demand spikes in other missile domains—such as hypersonic weapons or air defense interceptors—could put pressure on shared suppliers. Lockheed has already taken early steps to de-risk these variables by diversifying key inputs and investing in vertical integration for sensitive components.

Milestone C approval for PrSM is not just a programmatic checkpoint. It marks a turning point in how the U.S. Army fights. The transition to full-rate production and the goal of 400 missiles annually transforms rocket artillery from a support arm into a central pillar of U.S. and allied strike capabilities.

With each PrSM delivery, the Army gains a more agile, survivable, and precise means of projecting force deep into adversary territory. For Lockheed Martin, this is the realization of a complex industrial challenge. For Army units on the ground, it is the arrival of a long-overdue capability that will define the next generation of fires dominance.

Written by Alain Servaes – Chief Editor, Army Recognition Group

Alain Servaes is a former infantry non-commissioned officer and the founder of Army Recognition. With over 20 years in defense journalism, he provides expert analysis on military equipment, NATO operations, and the global defense industry.

armyrecognition.com · Administrator

12. Ehud Barak: The Gaza Ceasefire Deal Is Trump’s Achievement

Ehud Barak: The Gaza Ceasefire Deal Is Trump’s Achievement

TIME

The hostages are coming home. It will take 72 hours, possibly longer for some of the deceased, but it is happening. In the Israeli and Jewish ethos, this is a supreme moral and operational duty that underpins the Israeli fighting spirit and national resilience. Over the past year and a half, suspicions repeatedly emerged that the Prime Minister sabotaged mature deals for the hostages' release. Today, that is behind us.

This is, first and foremost, an achievement of President Trump, who demonstrated determination to end the war and showed greater sensitivity to the hostages' fate than Netanyahu did. As with his order to end the 12-day war with Iran, Trump seemed to dictate to Netanyahu what is good for Israel, against Netanyahu's wishes. Trump also recruited Turkey to pressure Hamas. With Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah neutralized, and Hamas politically surrounded by its supporters—Qatar and Turkey, alongside Egypt which controls their "oxygen pipeline," and the UAE and Saudi Arabia which hold the purse for Gaza's reconstruction—Hamas had no choice but to submit.

Key partners in this struggle were the hostage families and the protest movement. Trump referred to their moving images from Tel Aviv repeatedly in his social media posts. Before us is proof of a painful truth: Israel and Netanyahu are not the same thing. Netanyahu's government and Israel's security-national interests are not in the same place. Citizens and leaders worldwide can support Israel or criticize its actions while simultaneously opposing Netanyahu and his government. Many Israeli patriots are in exactly that position.

The first four points of the agreement will likely be implemented in the next 72 hours. Implementation of the remaining 16 points could still go awry. One must hope that Trump's determination will hold. Before us is an opportunity to end the war in Gaza, which includes replacing Hamas with an inter-Arab force, a technocratic government and Palestinian bureaucracy, under supervision of an international steering committee headed by Tony Blair.

In parallel, a new security force will be built, to which Hamas's heavy weapons will be transferred, and reconstruction will begin with primarily Saudi and Emirati funding. Israel is supposed to insist on two conditions: first, no person who belonged to Hamas's military wing can be a member of any organ of the new entity. Second, the withdrawal to the final line will occur only when agreed-upon security milestones are actually implemented. This arrangement could open a new chapter including normalization with Saudi Arabia, expansion of the Abraham Accords, and establishing the "economic corridor" from India through the Gulf states and Saudi Arabia to Israel and from there to Europe.

My assessment of Israel's past two years includes the following observations:

First, October 7, 2023 created a compelling imperative for Israel to ensure that Hamas would never again rule Gaza or threaten Israel from there. The dismantling of Hamas and its defeat as a military organization was achieved over a year ago. What remains are guerrilla groups that blend into a sea of over two million Palestinians.

Second, following Hamas's defeat, the IDF and intelligence agencies achieved impressive military accomplishments, including the blow dealt to Hamas, seizing the opportunity to destroy most of Syria's military capabilities—paving the way for the blow dealt to Iran. The "ring of fire" that Iran wove around Israel has collapsed. The opportunity to declare an end to the war from a position of strength, to return all hostages in an agreement, and to implement a plan similar to the current one, has been on the table for many long months—some argue even a year or more.

Third, Netanyahu's insistence on resuming fighting in Gaza to achieve absolute victory was never practical, as the United States learned in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, and Israel in the West Bank. This phase was defined by Chief of Staff Zamir as a "death trap for fighters and hostages" and by security veterans as a "War of deception" unrelated to state security, whose sole purpose is to save Netanyahu's coalition and secure his survival in power. The battle itself, alongside declarations by government ministers about "no innocents in Gaza," calls for "voluntary transfer" of Gazans, demanding prevention of humanitarian aid, "flattening" of cities, and establishing Israeli settlements in the Strip—all of these together with the images arriving daily from Gaza—have entangled Israel in suspicions of war crimes, a wave of antisemitism, diplomatic isolation whose peak was at the UN General Assembly and in the initiative to recognize a Palestinian state while bypassing negotiations with Israel, and the beginning of economic, cultural, and sports boycotts. A wave of hostility toward Israel has risen among the younger generation worldwide and doubts among young Jews. The recklessness of Netanyahu's government has smeared on Israel's face a stain that will be difficult to erase even with a generation's effort. For the first time since its establishment, question marks are being raised about the very legitimacy of the State of Israel.

Fourth, David Ben-Gurion coined the dictum: "Israel's existence stands on its strength and its righteousness." Its strength—the military-strategic and technological capabilities that made the IDF the strongest army in the Middle East. Its righteousness—the determination to hold the "moral high ground." Netanyahu systematically ignored this imperative and thus dragged Israel into its current predicament. The original perpetrators are the murderous Hamas, but the challenge is beyond the antisemitism that has always existed. The problem arose from the encounter between this antisemitic predisposition, the reckless actions of the government and the results on the ground.

Fifth, Israel will be required to demand accountability from all players. A state commission of inquiry headed by a Supreme Court justice should have already been established two years ago. Netanyahu blocked it in order to survive in power. Only self-initiated investigations of all deviations from the laws of war, executed by an independent judicial system, alongside inquiry by a state commission, will stop the momentum to bring Israel's leaders and senior IDF officials to the International Court of Justice in The Hague.

Powerful elements in Hamas and among Palestinians see a different picture. In their view, Netanyahu, through his "War of Deception," converted Hamas's military defeat into an unprecedented diplomatic-political achievement of returning the Palestinian issue to center stage globally, as if a Palestinian state can be established without negotiations with Israel but by international recognition alone.

Netanyahu behaves like a gambler who in his desperation doubles down again and again. He will try to survive at any cost, and many fear that even free and fair elections are not guaranteed as long as he remains in power. Regarding his fitness to stand for election, I will use his own quotes about his predecessor, Ehud Olmert, following the 2006 war with Lebanon. Netanyahu said: "A nation's life cannot be the personal survival track of a prime minister who has failed." And on another occasion: "To say that the one who failed and bungled is also the one who will fix it is like asking that the captain of the Titanic, had he survived, be the one to receive command of the company's new ship."

The signing of the agreement between Israel and Hamas in Sharm el-Sheikh marked a day of realized hopes for millions in Israel, exactly two years after the darkest day in the state's history and in Jewish history since the Holocaust.

What Israel needs today, as it opens this new chapter, is a new leadership of honest people who believe in a Jewish, Zionist, and democratic Israel, in the spirit of the Declaration of Independence. Who aspire to serve the public and Israel's security and future, not only themselves. Leadership that has the courage to make decisions and the strength to implement them. Leadership that believes that at the foundation of any successful human society stands the triangle of courage, truth, and trust. Establishing such leadership and marching confidently with it into the future—this is the mission of our generation. And by it we shall be judged.

TIME

13.

14. We Have an Israel-Hamas Deal. Now Comes the Hard Part | Opinion

Excerpts:

For all those challenges, the current mood—both in Washington and in Jerusalem—is one of cautious optimism. To be sure, the practical hurdles to a comprehensive peace deal are legion. So, too, are the challenges of creating anything resembling long-term stability, for both Israelis and Palestinians.

Even so, for the first time in two years, the beginning of the end of the current conflict might be in sight. Or, at least, the end of the beginning could be.

We Have an Israel-Hamas Deal. Now Comes the Hard Part | Opinion

By Ilan Berman

Senior Vice President, American Foreign Policy Council

Newsweek

Is the Gaza war truly over? On October 8, President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Hamas had come to terms on a deal to cease hostilities and exchange hostages, something that had been largely unthinkable just weeks prior. “I am very proud to announce that Israel and Hamas have both signed off on the first Phase of our Peace Plan,” the president posted on his Truth Social account. “This means that ALL of the Hostages will be released very soon, and Israel will withdraw their Troops to an agreed upon line as the first steps toward a Strong, Durable, and Everlasting Peace.”

...

Grandiose rhetoric aside, the agreement unquestionably represents a seminal achievement—if only a preliminary one. Implementing it will require Israel, the United States, and everyone else to grapple with a number of variables.

International Attention Is Vital

It was President Trump’s sustained attention that broke the long-standing impasse between Israel and Hamas, forcing both sides to make the meaningful concessions that made this new agreement possible. That, however, is just the beginning, because keeping the peace will require ongoing international involvement—and investment.

I have argued that the key to a truly sustainable “generation after” plan for Gaza entails enhanced security for Israel, a serious post-war reconstruction campaign, and a thorough deradicalization of the Palestinian population. None of those things can be accomplished by Israel alone, or even with the support of just the United States. Broader international backing, both financial and practical, will be needed. That means, first and foremost, that Israel’s Arab neighbors will need to take on bigger roles in terms of ensuring the Jewish state’s security and in laying the foundation for a prosperous and moderate Palestinian populace. Currently, it’s not at all clear that they are prepared to do so.

Palestinian Governance Is Deeply Uncertain

The central question in any discussion of the future of Gaza is who will end up ruling? Israel has long maintained that Hamas cannot play any role at all in future Palestinian politics, but the new peace deal stops short of compelling that. Instead, it allows the Islamist group to remain a factor (albeit a diminished one) in the conversation about Palestinian governance—something that may fundamentally upend progress in the future.

Another variable is the role of the rival Palestinian Authority (PA), which rules the West Bank. President Trump’s 20-point plan envisions an eventual role for the PA, following sufficient reforms. But, after decades of misrule, the PA is wildly unpopular among Palestinians themselves. Mahmoud Abbas, the PA’s president, has failed to create a durable plan for leadership succession. His inevitable passage will virtually guarantee a struggle for power, for political direction, and for the soul of the PA itself.

In other words, there is currently no clear pathway for political transition in “Palestine”—something that is liable to become a big problem in the months ahead.

A New Opportunity for the Abraham Accords

Back in 2020, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain and Sudan (and subsequently Morocco) broke new ground when they formally signed agreements normalizing relations with Israel. Five years on, those deals—colloquially known as the Abraham Accords—aren’t exactly thriving. Still, they are surviving, as officials in Abu Dhabi, Manama, and Rabat quietly advance their economic and political ties to the Jewish state.

Even so, it’s fair to say that the ongoing Gaza war, and an inflamed Arab “street,” has made it difficult for those states to capitalize on the potential of partnership with Israel. It has also ruled out the possibility of an expansion of the Accords to include other countries, as prospective entrants (like Saudi Arabia) have hardened their positions. The new Israel-Hamas deal has the potential to change all that. It effectively wipes the slate clean, establishing at least a pathway for future Palestinian governance—and thereby providing a reason for those countries to take a second look at the feasibility, and desirability, of normalization with Israel.

Iran Remains a Spoiler

For decades, the Islamic Republic of Iran has sought to use Palestinian proxies as a tool to disrupt and destabilize Israel. The culmination of this dark vision, and the fruit of ongoing Iranian financial and logistical support, was the audacious campaign of terror carried out by Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023. As has become abundantly clear since, that effort was part of a larger Iranian plan to attack the Jewish state simultaneously on multiple fronts.

Those ambitions continue unabated. Just hours after news of the ceasefire broke, it was reported that Israel’s internal security service, the Shin Bet, had apprehended a shipment of advanced Iranian weaponry destined for militants in the West Bank. The implications are unmistakable: Iran, having lost leverage over one part of the Palestinian “arena” as a result of Israeli victories against Hamas in Gaza, is seeking to make inroads by stoking instability elsewhere. If it succeeds in doing so, it will undermine the fragile status quo that has now been struck and plunge Israel and the Palestinians back into conflict.

For all those challenges, the current mood—both in Washington and in Jerusalem—is one of cautious optimism. To be sure, the practical hurdles to a comprehensive peace deal are legion. So, too, are the challenges of creating anything resembling long-term stability, for both Israelis and Palestinians.

Even so, for the first time in two years, the beginning of the end of the current conflict might be in sight. Or, at least, the end of the beginning could be.

Ilan Berman is senior vice president of the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, D.C.

The views expressed in this article are the writer’s own.

Newsweek

14. Trump Seeks Cartel Elimination, Not Regime Change, In Venezuela

Excerpts:

The U.S. military is poised to eliminate the Maduro cartel, not to invade, occupy, and impose a puppet government in Venezuela.

Yes, a strike could severely weaken Maduro’s grip on power. But it will be Venezuelans who will determine his fate. Venezuela isn’t Iraq. It’s not a fragile mosaic of warring sects. For more than a century, it has had a unified national identity and a functioning central government. Until the late 20th century, Venezuela was one of Latin America’s more stable democracies. Unlike post-Saddam Iraq, it has no dormant sectarian fissures primed to explode.

If Maduro's regime collapses, there’s a legitimate and competent political alternative ready to take power.

Last year, a whopping 70% of the Venezuelan electorate voted for the opposition to take power. The leader of the opposition, Maria Corina Machado, the leader of the opposition and Nobel Peace Prize winner, is inside the country and has the popular support to steer the country towards democracy and stability.

In short, if there is a transition, it will be Venezuelan-led, not American-imposed.

Trump Seeks Cartel Elimination, Not Regime Change, In Venezuela

https://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2025/10/11/trump_seeks_cartel_elimination_not_regime_change_in_venezuela_1140153.html

realclearworld.com · Daniel Chang Contreras

There is a chance that President Donald Trump will order a military strike against the Nicolás Maduro regime in Venezuela in the near future. Both credible reports and President Trump himself have basically said it out loud. For many Americans, this raises immediate fears of another costly foreign entanglement — another doomed “regime change” operation.

Their concerns are legitimate. But take it from someone who grew up in Venezuela and personally saw how the chavista regime took over the country and steadily turned it into a brutal dictatorship at the helm of a massive criminal empire: An attack against Maduro will not really be a years-long war of occupation. It would be a decisive operation against the Maduro-led Cartel de los Soles.

President Trump´s Venezuela approach is right. He´s right to see Maduro as the head of a cartel. He’s also right to deploy military assets against him and his structure. And, if he decides so, he will be right to order strikes against them.

Nicolás Maduro is an indicted drug lord. He’s leading a criminal organization masquerading as a government that’s providing a safe haven for criminal gangs to send drugs to American shores. More than 100,000 Americans reportedly died from overdoses between January 2023 and January 2024. Allowing a rogue regime to run a country as a base for narcotics trafficking is not an option.

No one is talking about sending hundreds of thousands of American troops to the streets of Caracas. America has a flotilla of around 5 destroyers, a few support ships, 10 F-35, over a hundred tomahawk missiles, and around 5,000-10,000 soldiers deployed in the Caribbean. That’s a mighty force, but not enough for an invasion.

According to Ryan Berg, Director of the Americas program in the Center for Strategic & International Studies, America would need ten times the troops deployed in the region for a full-fledged invasion to be possible.

There’s no indication that type of scale-up will happen soon. American forces in the region do have the capability, however, of targeted attacks against key members or infrastructure of the cartel.

The U.S. military is poised to eliminate the Maduro cartel, not to invade, occupy, and impose a puppet government in Venezuela.

Yes, a strike could severely weaken Maduro’s grip on power. But it will be Venezuelans who will determine his fate. Venezuela isn’t Iraq. It’s not a fragile mosaic of warring sects. For more than a century, it has had a unified national identity and a functioning central government. Until the late 20th century, Venezuela was one of Latin America’s more stable democracies. Unlike post-Saddam Iraq, it has no dormant sectarian fissures primed to explode.

If Maduro's regime collapses, there’s a legitimate and competent political alternative ready to take power.

Last year, a whopping 70% of the Venezuelan electorate voted for the opposition to take power. The leader of the opposition, Maria Corina Machado, the leader of the opposition and Nobel Peace Prize winner, is inside the country and has the popular support to steer the country towards democracy and stability.

In short, if there is a transition, it will be Venezuelan-led, not American-imposed.

An attack is not risk-free. Nothing in global politics is. If the regime falls under the pressure of popular mobilization and the elimination of their drug-trafficking operations, there’s bound to be political instability in Venezuela, but failing to act is also risky.

If Trump does nothing (as the Biden Administration did) Maduro will be emboldened. The flow of drugs towards America will increase, and the humanitarian crisis in Venezuela will keep getting worse. By trying to avoid instability in the short term, America would have years or even decades of more regional tensions.

That’s not a good strategy.

Trump’s strategy towards cartels is refreshing: You don’t talk nice to them, you hit them hard. And he’s right.

Daniel Chang Contreras is a speaker for the Dissident Project. He was born and raised in Venezuela, and fled socialism in 2017. His analysis has appeared in National Review, Real Clear World, France 24, and other outlets.

realclearworld.com · Daniel Chang Contreras

15. Air Force revamps its special warfare training pipeline

Air Force revamps its special warfare training pipeline

Starting in November, Air Force special warfare students will go through a 16-week “Zulu Course" on combat skills after the assessment and selection process.

Jeff Schogol

Published Oct 10, 2025 3:28 PM EDT

taskandpurpose.com · Jeff Schogol

The Air Force is revamping the training pipeline for its toughest jobs.

Beginning in November, the Air Force will add a 16-week tactical field course to the training pipeline of Airmen seeking to join the pararescue, combat control, Tactical Air Control Party, or special reconnaissance career fields. The new training, dubbed the “Zulu Course” will teach the basics of how to shoot, move, and communicate as a team, said Col. Rodger Jennrich, deputy commander of the special warfare training wing at Air Education and Training Command, which oversees initial skills training for special warfare career fields.

Currently, Air Force special warfare trainees get basic tactical training — a core skill of the special operations units most will eventually be assigned to — after they reach the final qualification schools at the end of their training pipelines.

“Of the career fields, there were 100 tasks that were similar,” Jennrich said. “What we’ve done is we’ve pulled all those tasks up front so they’re trained together at one location as a team. It’s three blocks of training that builds on the foundation of basic skills of shoot, move, communicate, casualty care, weapons, advanced insertion/extraction skills, individual skills, and small team operations.”

The Zulu course will be now be the second stop for all special warfare trainees. The first will remain the service’s infamously intense four-week Assessment & Selection Course where trainees will still endure the near-constant physical training, from obstacle courses to pool workouts, that generations of Air Force special operators have faced. Like the selection course, Zulu training will be at Lackland Air Force Base, Texas.

After the Zulu Course, trainees will then continue with the training pipelines for each specialty, which can include parachute and dive training, survival courses and final training schools that teach the specific skills of each job. Graduates of the four final schools earn the distinctive colored berets they wear throughout their careers.

The overall length of those training pipelines, which varies by career field, will remain the same, Jennrich told Task & Purpose.

“We are not changing a single standard,” said Jennrich, who has spent 37 years in the Air Force special tactics community, including 14 years as an enlisted combat controller. “We are not changing a single requirement. We are not adding any training, and we are not removing any training. All we have done is rearranged the training.”

Air Force special warfare jobs include four enlisted and three officer career fields. In a recent change mandated by Headquarters Air Force, enlisted recruits now sign a contract for a specific special warfare career field. Previously, recruits could start training without having picked a specific job, Air Force officials said.

Another goal of the changes, which the Air Force calls Pipeline Optimization, is to eliminate training bottlenecks and match the number of students training in a field to the number of slots available at each final schoolhouse, Jennrich said.

Special warfare candidates currently average close to two months of downtime during their training pipeline, an Air Force news release says.

“When an airman graduates basic training, providing that he or she makes it through the pipeline without any delays, they will know every school start date,” Jennrich said. “It is already set for them. The entire pipeline is set. Previously, you would have to wait for schools.”

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The new training pipeline also allows airmen to focus on their speciality skills at the apprentice courses, he said.

“The TACPs will work on fire support; the combat controllers will work on airfields, assault zones; pararescuemen will work on their rescue skills, ” Jennrich said. “What we’ve moved forward is all those common skills that everybody did. They still have their specialty skills.”

Moving combat training to the start of special warfare training allows airmen to “see what this is really like instead of waiting to the end to finally see it,” Jennrich said.

“Now you get to reinforce those things through the pipeline over and over,” Jennrich said. “Now you have an idea of it so that when you get to the next school and the next school, things make more sense because you’ve already been trained on it.”

Under the new changes, special warfare training will remain “as challenging, if not more challenging than the current pipeline,” Jennrich said

“This is about smarter training, not easier training,” he said.

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Jeff Schogol

Senior Pentagon Reporter

Jeff Schogol is the senior Pentagon reporter for Task & Purpose. He has covered the military for nearly 20 years. Email him at schogol@taskandpurpose.com or direct message @JSchogol73030 on Twitter.

taskandpurpose.com · Jeff Schogol

16. Third narco sub found in Solomon Islands, as cocaine and meth trafficking comes to the Pacific

Third narco sub found in Solomon Islands, as cocaine and meth trafficking comes to the Pacific

By Solomon Islands reporter Chrisnrita Aumanu-Leong and the Pacific Local Journalism Network's Nick Sas

Topic:Organised Crime

Wed 8 Oct

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-10-09/narco-sub-cocaine-meth-solomon-islands-pacific/105865658

ABC.net.au · October 8, 2025

Reubenson and Martin Fugui have been boating around their island village their entire lives, but they'd never seen anything like this before.

The cousins were on their usual morning boat run on Saturday to get supplies from a local market when they spotted it.

"It was an object floating [in the water]," Reubenson told the ABC from his village, Fourau, in Solomon Islands' Malaita province.

"We were scared at first, because we'd never seen a vessel [like this] in our lives."

The narco sub after it was towed, for four hours, from open water back to Reubenson and Martin Fugui's village. (Supplied)

Isolated and in deep water, they were hesitant at first to board the "strange-looking" boat and waited for half an hour for any sign of life before they were convinced it was safe.

As they got closer, they saw its engines were missing, and Reubenson, the older of the two, told Martin to climb aboard to find out what was inside.

"There was a single cabin and it still had its steering wheel," Martin said.

The cramped inside of the narco sub. (Supplied)

Other than that, the engines were gone and it was just filled with empty plastic water bottles.

The cousins towed the strange 17m-long vessel back to their village.

Later, on closer inspection, they discovered internal piping for the fuel system.

"They had written on them 'Made in Colombia, 2024,'" Reubenson said.

They didn't know it until they later reported it to police, but they had discovered a narco sub — the third such vessel found in Solomon Islands' waters over the past year.

The Pacific's growing drug problem

Narco subs are ocean-going, semi-submersible or fully-submersible vessels, often custom-built by drug cartels to transfer huge amounts of product across oceans.

The practice has been going on in the Americas for decades, but the newer vessels are often fully submersible in order to reduce detection by authorities' radar or sonar systems.

This month, the Trump administration has started its own war on similar-type boats, bombing vessels it says were filled with drugs bound for the United States.

But in the Pacific and Solomon Islands, these types of discoveries are new.

Last year, a local doctor found the first narco sub in the region near Solomon Islands' isolated Ontong Java Atoll, and has now turned the 25m-long vessel into his personal boat.

The first narco sub discovered in Solomon Islands last year has now been converted into a personal boat. (In-depth Solomons)

Local investigative team In-depth Solomons reported that an Ecuadorian voter ID card was found on board.

And in July, the second narco sub, this one 21m long, was discovered floating in the ocean by a local MP near Ramos Island, which is about 75km north-west of the latest discovery.

All three of the vessels found in Solomon Islands had no drugs on board, with experts saying the vessels are often abandoned after a successful mission.

Local Police say they are investigating all three, and it is unclear whether these vessels drifted the 10,000km from South America, or they transferred the drugs closer to Solomon Islands.

But the discoveries come as the Pacific grapples with a growing drug problem, with a string of recent busts highlighting how cartels are increasingly using the sparse and largely unpoliced Pacific Islands as a transit point onto the more lucrative Australian and New Zealand markets — what experts call the "cash cows".

Drug traffickers reveal 'easy' methods to import product into the Pacific

Photo shows A composite image including a motorcycle, a man's silhouetted upper body, palm trees, methamphetamines and drug parcels.

Former drug traffickers have revealed how they manipulated often under-resourced border controls and isolated ports and airports in the Pacific.

"[These discoveries] definitely show a new trend being used by trans-criminal syndicates in South America and Mexico, to traffic drugs to Australia and New Zealand, the 'cash cows' in the region," transnational crime expert Jose Sousa-Santos told RNZ.

"These vessels operate through the Pacific Islands or from island to island from a drop-off mothership to, say, the Solomon Islands.

"Then a LPV (narco sub) is used to move to another island country to refuel, before moving towards the target markets of Australia and New Zealand."

'Power drug' hits Solomon Islands

The drug importation issue has become a new and increasing problem in the Pacific Islands, hitting communities in Tonga, Fiji, Samoa and PNG.

Fiji, in particular, is grappling with a spike in HIV on the back of increased meth use in the country, with users sharing needles in what's known as bluetoothing.

'Bluetoothing' fuels HIV outbreak, catching Fiji unprepared

Photo shows Two plastic containers with coloured tablets inside, held in the palms of a man's hands.

Health authorities are scrambling to stem an HIV outbreak in Fiji, where alarming needle-sharing trends have accelerated the spread of the virus.

But in Solomon Islands, it is so new that authorities don't even have legislation to prohibit possession of methamphetamine, which locals are calling "the power drug".

And local police say the discovery is beyond the current capabilities of law enforcement.

Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele told local media this week that the government was working urgently to address the legal gaps, aiming to modernise outdated laws to ensure stronger measures against those in the production and distribution of illegal drugs.

"As we speak the attorney general's chambers, together with other stakeholders including the police, are looking at these gaps,"

he said.

"This is our priority, and we want to quickly bring the necessary amendments to parliament -- hopefully by the end of this year, or if not, during the first session next year."

The area where the narco sub was discovered, in the north of Malaita, is isolated but beautiful. (ABC News: Nick Sas)

Local lawyer and prosecutor Steward Tonowane said the discoveries of the narco subs and the lack of legislation in Solomon Islands were a "serious concern".

"Reminds me of the saying: when there's smoke, there's fire," he said.

"There must be a deliberate orchestrated operation that is happening.

"And we must make amendments and prepare ourselves [so] that we may be able to attend to this issue."

The narco sub has become a major talking point in the village. (Supplied)

Back in Fourau village, the narco sub has become a major talking point in the community, with everyone in the community coming to check it out.

Yet, local police have warned "the good citizens of Solomon Islands" to call police first in such encounters.

"This is for the police to come and properly check to make sure the boat is safe," the police told the ABC in a statement.

But for Reubenson, now that the narco sub has been abandoned, it's a matter of finders keepers.

"If I find this thing that no one owns, then obviously it means I'm the new owner."

Posted 7h ago7 hours agoWed 8 Oct 2025 at 7:07pm, updated 4h ago4 hours agoWed 8 Oct 2025 at 9:40pm

ABC.net.au · October 8, 2025

17. Russia is torturing its Ukrainian captives

Europe | Systemic and widespread

Russia is torturing its Ukrainian captives

“Worse than the worst horror film” says the former mayor of Kherson

https://www.economist.com/europe/2025/10/09/russia-is-torturing-its-ukrainian-captives

Photograph: Reuters

Oct 9th 2025

KYIV

3 min read

Listen to this story

OLODYMYR MYKOLAYENKO is 65, but looks ten years older. A former mayor of the Ukrainian city of Kherson, he was detained by Russian forces during their eight-month occupation in 2022. Freed at the end of August, he is now giving interviews from a hospital in Kyiv. And that is refocusing attention on what the UN’s human-rights mission in the capital calls Russia’s “systematic and widespread” torture and ill-treatment of its prisoners.

Civilian and military detainees are treated equally badly. According to a UN report last month, of 216 released civilians it interviewed 92% gave accounts of abuse. The methods included beatings, electric shocks, stress positions, ritual humiliation and rape. For soldiers the percentage is even higher. Mr Mykolayenko describes being beaten several times a day, and particularly severe “welcome beatings” each time he was transferred to a new facility. Food was so poor that he and his fellow prisoners lost drastic amounts of weight, and sanitary conditions so bad that many caught scabies. The only dental treatment he saw, once in the three years, was a tooth-pulling without anaesthetic. One guard, he says, made a practice of beating prisoners’ hands with a mallet. “Once I asked him ‘Why are you doing this?’ For a reply, I got a beating on the head.”

Singled out for particularly brutal treatment are members of one of Ukraine’s most prestigious military units, the Azov Corps. A 26-year-old junior lieutenant in the corps, Yan Danylko, was released earlier this year. Halfway through a masters degree in law when Russia launched its invasion, he signed up and took part in the battle for Mariupol, surrendering when the city fell after a three-month siege. During his three years in Russian captivity he lost a third of his weight. Standard abuses were beatings and being made to stand for 12 hours at a stretch; more elaborate positions included “the motorcycle” and “the starfish”, both unendurable for more than 20 minutes. For those who signed confessions or turned informer he has no blame: “You’ll do what they want you to do, sign what they want you to sign.”

A new development is the prosecution of Azov prisoners for membership of a terrorist organisation, Russia having so designated the unit in 2022. Nestor Barchuk, a human-rights lawyer with the corps, says at least 130 men have been given sentences of ten years or more, and that dozens more are under investigation.

Can anything be done? Russia is immune to shaming, and its own internal checks are a joke. Lieutenant Danylko describes a visit by a Russian ombudsman, when he and his fellow prisoners were given new uniforms, and better food on ceramic instead of aluminium plates. A TV crew filmed handouts of biscuits and warm clothes. “That evening they took everything away again. It was a one-day Potemkin show.” If anything, detainees’ treatment is worsening as they are dispersed to distant regions. (The UN has identified new detention sites in Siberia and Karelia.) Loudly as the outside world protests against Russia’s flouting of human-rights law, Ukraine’s only lever is prisoner exchanges. Swaps are proceeding in dribs and drabs, but Ukraine is on the defensive, so large-scale captures are unlikely soon.

Today, Lieutenant Danylko is getting used to a prosthetic leg. Still painfully thin, Mr Mykolayenko says he is trying to blot out his three years in captivity. Thinking about them is “worse than the worst horror film”. He is nonetheless giving interviews because “it’s important that people understand what they are dealing with. The biggest lesson I have learned is that you can’t negotiate with evil. And Russia is evil.” It is hard to find a Ukrainian who disagrees. ■

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18. The sinister disappearance of China’s bosses

I wonder if Russia and China share their techniques for eliminations and disappearances?

Graphics at the link.

The sinister disappearance of China’s bosses

Detentions, public shaming and suicides intensify the country’s corporate gloom

https://www.economist.com/business/2025/10/08/the-sinister-disappearance-of-chinas-bosses

Illustration: Simon Prades

Oct 8th 2025

Shanghai

6 min read

Listen to this story

ntil recently Yu Faxin was best known as a leading scientist and entrepreneur, specialising in advanced semiconductors for military applications. But on September 22nd he made headlines for another reason. His company, Shanghai-listed Great Microwave Technology, disclosed that Mr Yu had been taken away by China’s anti-corruption agency. Mr Yu is in liuzhi, an extra-judicial form of detention in which increasing numbers of Chinese businessmen are being snared.

The country’s entrepreneurs must contend with a lengthening list of worries. Foremost is the economy, which has never fully recovered from the pandemic. Consumer sentiment is tepid at best; overproduction and ruthless competition are rife. Retail sales have shrivelled. The number of lossmaking industrial firms has been hovering at a record high.

But a further set of concerns is growing in prominence. As the economic outlook darkens, China’s institutional shortcomings are making the business elite even more miserable. Official investigations into company leaders are on the rise. So are court rulings that limit their freedom to travel around the country. A spate of suicides among bosses this year is widely seen as evidence of intensifying pressure.

Liuzhi detentions are perhaps the clearest source of unease. When the system was created in 2018 it was aimed mainly at Communist Party members and government officials, part of the anti-corruption crackdown begun by Xi Jinping, China’s supreme leader, five years earlier. It is now frequently directed at businesspeople too.

The system runs parallel to normal policing. Detentions do not require court approval. Detainees are denied the standard services of lawyers. Changes to regulations in June allow agents to hold people for up to eight months, to reset the clock if a new crime is suspected and to interrogate prisoners endlessly. Cells typically have no windows, lights are always on and detainees are often supervised 24 hours a day, even when using the toilet.

This year bosses at listed companies have been vanishing into this grim system at a staggering rate: The Economist counted 39 such cases by the end of September, or about one a week, in stock-exchange filings. That already exceeds last year’s record tally. But it is just a fraction of the broader picture. Most corporate liuzhi targets work for unlisted companies, which are not obliged to explain to investors why their chief executives have disappeared.

Chart: The Economist

Total detentions, including those of both officials and businesspeople, soared by nearly 50% in 2024, to around 38,000, according to statements by the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI), the party body authorised to carry them out (see chart 1). The corporate side of the crackdown appears to be extensive. The CCDI has said it took some form of disciplinary action (including liuzhi) against more than 60,000 people in the pharmaceutical sector and 17,000 in finance last year.

One explanation of why so many bosses have been detained is the rapid expansion of Mr Xi’s corruption crackdown. The number of cases filed is on track to hit a record 1m this year, reckons Gavekal Dragonomics, a consultancy. When an official is investigated, their entire business network can come under scrutiny, leading to a ballooning in corporate cases. Some of the industries facing deepening anti-corruption probes, such as computing hardware and green technology, are tightly connected to local governments through procurement and contracting, notes Zhu Jiangnan of the University of Hong Kong. This puts executives in these fields at greater risk.

Flagging economic growth may also help to account for the rise in detentions. Local governments are short on cash; many have enormous debts. Some CCDI investigations have been characterised as “deep-sea fishing” expeditions, in which an executive is held on flimsy grounds in the hope that the harsh conditions of liuzhi will yield a confession of wrongdoing or the accusation of another wealthy person. The investigators can then seize that person’s (and their company’s) assets.

Of the 39 executives of listed firms lifted this year, more than half were detained by CCDI departments far from their companies’ headquarters. A Chinese lawyer specialising in such cases says this is a sign that one local government is fishing in another’s jurisdiction in search of funds. (The lawyer has asked to remain anonymous.)

Another cause of bosses’ distress is a notorious credit blacklist, to which the names of some of the country’s richest tycoons have recently been added. China’s bankruptcy laws are not fully developed and courts often reach for quick fixes to put pressure on debtors to pay up. One method is to publicly add their names to the list, which bans them from “high consumption”. Those on it may no longer fly, ride on high-speed trains or stay in fancy hotels, among other things.

Chart: The Economist

This credit list may originally have been intended to force people to repay small debts, but entrepreneurs have been herded onto it in recent years as their ventures struggle. A court database shows that by the end of September some 200,000 people had been added this year, up from around 17,400 in the whole of 2019, before the economic rupture of the pandemic (see chart 2). About 46% of this year’s blacklistings were owing to contractual disputes, indicating that business-related activities led to the court rulings.

The fear of falling onto the list is real and may lead companies to take fewer risks. It is thus another “dangerous drag on business sentiment”, says Lizzi Lee of the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Centre for China Analysis, a think-tank. At a time when the economy is badly short of dynamism, “the signal from the current system is that if you fail, you don’t just lose your business; you may lose your basic ability to function,” she says.

The central government has tried to improve conditions for entrepreneurs. In February Mr Xi met a handful of China’s top company bosses in the hope of signalling a reset. A new “private-sector promotion” law was put in place to help spur growth.

But the dominant mood among entrepreneurs has instead stayed gloomy. On September 28th it was revealed that Wang Jianlin, a property tycoon who was once China’s richest man, had been added to the debtors’ blacklist because of a contractual dispute. This ban was lifted a day later but not without igniting a discussion on the dire situation facing some leading business figures. Mr Yu’s detention has had a similar effect. If senior military scientists can be swept into liuzhi, no one is out of the corruption agency’s reach.

The suicides have made matters darker still. Between April and July at least five prominent bosses leapt to their deaths from high buildings, leading to anguished public discussion about the burden on entrepreneurs. The suicide of Wang Linpeng caused particular shock. The founder of a successful department-store chain, Wang was once the richest man in Hubei, his home province. In April he was put into liuzhi. He was freed in late July, but kept on a watch list. His suicide, days after his release, is just one of the few “that float to the surface”, says the lawyer. “There are many more that no one knows about.” ■

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19. Paragliders: The army's lethal new weapon in Myanmar's civil war

I don't know how many times I have heard the idea of paragliders dismissed. (But it is a lot)

Paragliders: The army's lethal new weapon in Myanmar's civil war

Just now

Yvette TanSingapore and

BBC Burmese

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c20zvqe3qd5o

Supplied

Paramotor attacks have ramped in Myanmar in recent months

It was a Monday night in Myanmar's Chang U township in central Sagaing region, where nearly 100 people had gathered to mark Thadingyut, the festival of the full moon.

Some held candles at the event, which doubled as both a celebration and a protest against the military.

But the celebration soon turned into horror as a motorised paraglider - known locally as a paramotor - flew overhead and dropped bombs onto the crowd.

The attack lasted just seven minutes, but at least 26 people died as a result and dozens more were injured.

"Initially, I thought the lower part of my body had been severed," one 30-year-old who was at the gathering told news agency Reuters.

He managed to make his way into a nearby ditch and hid there until his friends pulled him out.

"This is mass murder," he said of the attack. "They are committing it openly."

It's one of many airstrikes that have been carried out this year by Myanmar's armed forces. It's also a clear sign that the paramotor - a low-tech but lethal weapon - has become a fixture in a civil war that shows no signs of stopping.

What is a paramotor?

There are different variations of paramotors, but generally, the most common type sees a pilot suspended from a motor-powered paraglider that they can steer.

Each paramotor can carry an average of 160kg (350lb) - meaning it can comfortably fit a paratrooper, as well as several small bombs. According to the UN, these paragliders typically carry 120mm bombs which weigh up to 16kg each.

Their small structure and ability to fly at low altitude mean they can fly much closer to a target than an aircraft could. Pilots drop bombs on their targets by hand.

Experts say these paramotors - equipped with GPS - are able to accurately hit their targets from altitudes below 1,000 ft (300m) - and a single paramotor can fly for about three hours, running on regular fuel.

Getty Images

120mm mortar rounds are small enough to be carried by paramotors

Military sources say paratroopers can be trained in a matter of days, rather than years, unlike pilots needed to drive a conventional aircraft. Multiple air bases and training schools have been set up to train such paratroopers - and many attacks happen in regions where such bases are located.

The paramotors are also significantly cheaper to make and maintain - which is one of the main reasons why they've become a mainstay in the Burmese military, say military sources and defence groups. These paramotors are believed to be produced at Myanmar's state-owned Heavy Industry Number 10, which is also responsible for making a large amount of the country's aircraft parts.

But they aren't without their drawbacks. Their ability to fly low and their conspicuousness means they can also be easily hit by gunfire from the ground - so they are more commonly used at night.

They also move slowly, up to 65km/h (40mph), say experts.

Paramotors also can't fly in severe weather conditions - and are limited by how high they can fly. The loud sound of the aircraft's motor means people can also hear them coming.

"[During attacks] I can hear the sound of the engine crossing over my village," one rescue worker in Sagaing had earlier told Amnesty International. "The paramotor attack noise is like a chainsaw."

How commonly are they used?

PDF

More than two dozen people were killed in Monday's airstrike

While Monday's attack is the most lethal to date, it is by no means the first. The first known use of such paramotor attacks took place on Christmas Day in 2024 in the central Myingyan district - a resistance stronghold.

In January 2025 alone, eight such attacks were recorded in the townships of Taungtha, Paletwa and Sagaing, resulting in nine deaths, according to global monitoring site Acled.

And as the junta enters its fourth year of fighting, its aircraft fleet is likely to be severely depleted, or would require high costs to maintain if they are damaged - making paramotors a much more affordable option.

"They are cheap, quick to deploy and require minimal pilot training... [they] bridge the gap between drones and aircraft, offering longer range and greater payload capacity than drones at a fraction of the cost of helicopters," Min Zaw Oo from the Myanmar Institute for Peace and Security told the BBC.

"Their growing use reflects the junta's shift toward low-cost aerial dominance amid aircraft losses and resource constraints."

However, they are no replacement for conventional aircraft, especially in large rebel strongholds which are equipped with advanced air defence systems, according to news site The Irrawaddy.

So they are used instead in areas where resistance forces have less of a foothold and may not have the weapons required to shoot them down.

One of the few ways residents in such places can defend themselves from such attacks is to hide under an air raid shelter.

One Sagaing resident had earlier told the BBC that a bunker that could shelter a family would cost around 500,000 kyats (£178; $239) - in a country where the daily minimum wage is around 4,800 kyats.

Min Zaw Oo adds that the military has also been "experimenting with gyrocopters, which can reach further targets with heavier payloads and more advanced onboard systems".

What is the situation like now in Myanmar?

Thousands have been killed and millions displaced since a military coup in 2021, which triggered a civil war with armed resistance groups and ethnic militias.

And though the junta lost large amounts of territory to rebel groups, it has in recent months been making significant gains, through an especially bloody campaign of airstrikes and heavy bombardment.

It's also received a significant amount of support - and equipment - from China, which has increasingly intervened to protect its economic interests in the country, according to think tank the Stimson Centre.

"China's support for the junta has not only not abated, but expanded, as it desperately tries to shore up an economically incompetent and militarily over-stretched junta," it said in a report.

"The most important assistance that Beijing is providing is in the military realm, including arms sales, drone technology, the deployment of technicians to defence industries, and the blocking of dual-use exports to the opposition."

Getty Images

Thousands have died since the military launched a coup in 2021

Beijing has also been putting pressure on rebels along its border to stop supplying weapons - including unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) - to opposition groups, which are heavily dependent on such weapons.

This two-pronged approach has left the rebels weakened - though they still hold a significant claim over about half of the country.

In the face of this fracturing conflict, it is civilians on the ground who face more suffering in this new wave of paramotor terror against soft targets.

20. What Large States Can Learn from Small States’ Total Defense Strategies

Excerpts;

When Singapore launched Total Defense in 1984, it was responding to a simple reality: it could not outgun or outnumber its neighbors. The only way to survive was to make the population inseparable from the state’s defense posture.

The framework rests on six interlocking pillars, military, civil, economic, social, psychological, and digital, each reinforcing the others. Together, they create a feedback system that links public morale, infrastructure, and information resilience.

In Singapore’s planning culture, no ministry or company operates in isolation. A civil emergency becomes a military logistics issue, a psychological messaging issue, and an economic continuity issue at once. This multidimensional mindset treats governance as a single nervous system.

For large nations with sprawling bureaucracies, the takeaway is not to centralize control but to synchronize intent. National security should extend beyond defense ministries into education, healthcare, transportation, and digital infrastructure, creating a network of mutually aware systems.

What Large States Can Learn from Small States’ Total Defense Strategies

The Resistance Hub Staff

October 10, 2025

Irregular Warfare

8 min read

theresistancehub.com

When Size Stops Being an Advantage

Large nations often assume that sheer volume ensures survival. They trust in their populations, economies, and geographic depth to absorb shocks. Yet the last decade has demonstrated that abundance can conceal fragility. Critical systems fail not from external invasion but from slow corrosion of coordination and trust.

Small states like Singapore offer a different lesson. They cannot afford complacency. Their survival depends on designing resilience into every layer of society. Singapore’s Total Defence framework integrates citizens, government, and the private sector into one disciplined system. It is not a slogan or a campaign but an operating principle: every individual and institution shares responsibility for national endurance.

The lesson for larger states is straightforward yet difficult to execute. Security is not a function of magnitude; it is a function of cohesion. By observing how Singapore built this framework from necessity, large powers can learn how to transform scale from a liability into an advantage.

A platoon of Singapore infantry soldiers stand at attention. Source

The Small-State Mindset: Building Cohesion Before Crisis

When Singapore launched Total Defense in 1984, it was responding to a simple reality: it could not outgun or outnumber its neighbors. The only way to survive was to make the population inseparable from the state’s defense posture.

The framework rests on six interlocking pillars, military, civil, economic, social, psychological, and digital, each reinforcing the others. Together, they create a feedback system that links public morale, infrastructure, and information resilience.

In Singapore’s planning culture, no ministry or company operates in isolation. A civil emergency becomes a military logistics issue, a psychological messaging issue, and an economic continuity issue at once. This multidimensional mindset treats governance as a single nervous system.

For large nations with sprawling bureaucracies, the takeaway is not to centralize control but to synchronize intent. National security should extend beyond defense ministries into education, healthcare, transportation, and digital infrastructure, creating a network of mutually aware systems.

A Singapore Civil Defense Force “Red Rhino” light fire attack vehicle on display at the Singapore Discovery Centre (Photo: Glen Bowman, CC BY-SA 2.0)

Integration as a Source of Strength

Singapore’s administrative integration is deliberate. Every ministry participates in cross-sector contingency planning, and major corporations coordinate with civil authorities during national exercises. The result is a culture where efficiency and resilience reinforce one another.In large states, institutions often guard jurisdiction more than they guard continuity. The United States, India, and many European countries maintain vast agency networks that excel individually but coordinate poorly in crisis. Integration, in this sense, is not a loss of autonomy but a gain in predictability.

Creating interoperable doctrine, common operating language across civilian and defense institutions, builds the connective tissue that keeps systems functioning under strain. The model works because integration is treated as a policy discipline, not an ad hoc task.

Headquarters of the Singapore Civil Defence Force in Singapore. Photo by ProjectManhattan, via Wikimedia Commons (Public Domain).

Civil Defense as National Literacy

The Singapore Civil Defense Force (SCDF) runs preparedness programs that reach from schools to corporations. Its community drills, neighborhood shelters, and first-aid courses ensure that resilience becomes habit rather than spectacle. The motto “There’s A Part For Everyone” reflects this integration between daily life and national security.

Large states frequently treat civil defense as emergency management, activated only after disaster strikes. Singapore instead treats it as a form of civic literacy. The more distributed the knowledge of what to do, the less panic, rumor, and paralysis during crisis.

Embedding preparedness in education systems and professional standards builds muscle memory across generations. The act of learning resilience becomes an act of citizenship, closing the gap between civilians and the state.

Singapore Civil Defense Force personnel responding at Lorong 8 Toa Payoh, Singapore, as residents look on. Photo by ZKang123, via Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0).

Economic Defense Through Continuity

Singapore’s economic defense is organized around one word: continuity. The state assumes that trade routes can close, energy prices can spike, and digital logistics can fail. It plans accordingly through redundancy, reserves, and long-term contracts.The Ministry of Trade and Industry works with private enterprises to map vulnerabilities in global supply chains and develop alternatives. Every major port operator, energy distributor, and data hub participates in these exercises.

Larger powers can emulate this approach by mandating continuity planning across critical industries. Supply chain mapping, mutual aid agreements, and strategic reserves should be standard practice. True resilience lies not in isolation but in disciplined interdependence that can reroute under pressure.

Container cranes and stacked cargo at the Port of Singapore, photographed from the Pinnacle @ Duxton rooftop terrace. Photo by Aaaatu, via Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0).

Social Cohesion as a Shield

Singapore’s social defense aims to preserve unity in a society of multiple languages, religions, and origins. The government invests heavily in interfaith dialogues, community centers, and integrated housing policies to ensure that no community becomes isolated.The architecture of everyday life, housing, education, and conscription, reinforces this cohesion. Every citizen shares the same public services, the same defense obligations, and the same civic narrative. The system prevents fragmentation before it appears.

In large and diverse societies, social cohesion can become the decisive variable between recovery and disorder. Investing in shared spaces, cross-cultural education, and digital civility programs can replicate some of the same resilience Singapore enjoys without replicating its centralization.

Psychological Defense and Shared Purpose

Singapore recognizes morale as a measurable resource. Its psychological defense pillar connects education, history, and communications to create a sense of ownership. Students learn how occupation and independence shaped national identity. Adults are reminded that vigilance is collective, not delegated.This shared sense of purpose explains the country’s rapid recovery from crises like SARS, the global financial crash, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Citizens act not because they are ordered to, but because they already understand why action matters.

Larger states often struggle to maintain such coherence. Restoring it requires transparent communication, credible leadership, and a narrative that binds freedom to responsibility. Citizens who see themselves as participants in resilience will act before systems fail.

Digital Defense as Civic Infrastructure

The newest pillar, Digital Defense, merges cybersecurity with national education. Singapore’s Cyber Security Agency works with private firms, schools, and community groups to improve awareness of phishing, misinformation, and cyber hygiene. The approach treats digital competence as social behavior, not merely technical skill.Large states possess advanced cyber commands but often lack public integration. Treating citizens and small enterprises as part of the digital perimeter closes that gap. Shared responsibility across public and private networks strengthens the overall system.

In an era where disinformation campaigns can paralyze decision-making faster than physical attacks, teaching digital literacy is equivalent to building fortifications.

AI image generated by The Resistance Hub.

Legitimacy Built on Trust

Singapore’s success depends on one intangible resource: legitimacy. The public trusts that national mobilization serves collective, not political, goals. Each Total Defense exercise is transparent, bounded by law, and publicly reviewed.Large democracies can adapt this principle through oversight, public metrics, and legal clarity. Integration without accountability erodes the very cohesion it seeks to protect. Citizens must see the system as participatory and reversible, not as a tool of control.

Resilience becomes durable only when it is rooted in voluntary cooperation. Trust, once built, multiplies across sectors and crises alike.

Parliament House in Singapore, with the city’s central business district visible in the background. Photo by Grayswoodsurrey, via Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 3.0).

Scaling Small-State Logic

The Total Defense model can be scaled through disciplined systems thinking:

Map cross-sector dependencies to identify cascade points.
Assign co-responsibility for each function between state and civil entities.
Conduct national continuity exercises with private industry participation.
Publish resilience benchmarks for public accountability.
Integrate psychological and digital education into civic curricula.

This approach transforms bureaucratic states into adaptive networks. It does not mimic Singapore’s hierarchy but mirrors its coherence, a living architecture of awareness, redundancy, and trust.

Integration as the True Measure of Power

Singapore’s Total Defense demonstrates that power resides in systems, not in size. By aligning its people, infrastructure, and governance around shared responsibility, it achieves what many larger nations fail to sustain — cohesion under uncertainty.For great powers facing complex global competition, adopting elements of small-state discipline may become essential. Integration of policy, communication, and trust is the ultimate deterrent in an era of hybrid threats.

Resilience, once institutionalized, becomes culture. It is built every day through habits of coordination, transparency, and civic pride. Large states that learn this lesson may discover that genuine strength begins with design, not reaction.

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De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

Access NSS HERE

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