"The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary." 
- H.L. Mencken

"Naturally, the common people don't want war...but, after all it's the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship...Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country." 
- Herman Goering at Nuremberg trial in 1946

"Their credulity debased and vitiated the faculties of the mind: they corrupted the evidence of history; and superstition gradually extinguished the hostile light of philosophy and science." 
- Edward Gibbon



1. China furious with global outcry over Xinjiang and Hong Kong
2.  The Man Who Speaks Softly - and Commands a Big Cyber Army
3.  Afghans stunned, worried by Trump tweet to bring home U.S. troops early
4.  Time to be honest about Japan's defense deficiency
5. India and U.S. have been too cautious on China, says U.S. official
6. A World of Geopolitical Opportunity
7. Threat from nuclear weapons and missiles has grown since Trump entered office
8. The Nuclearization of American Diplomacy
9. China warns Asian countries to be vigilant on U.S strategy
10. National Guard cyber experts working to protect Washington state's election security
11. Dalio Says 'Time Is on China's Side' in Power Struggle With U.S.
12. Low, Fast, Networked & Lethal: Future Army Airpower
13. China, Cambodia sign landmark FTA, marking stronger ties
14. Irregular warfare with China, Russia: Ready or not, it's coming - if not already here
15. Great Power Competition and the role of America's Air Commandos
16. US Marines pivot approach to information warfare at commandant's direction
17. Lorenzana says 2nd stage of PH military upgrade won't be completed on time
18. Esper's Reforms: An Interim Report Card
19. First survey of West Point cadets' attitudes about civil-military relations raises concerns
20. How Hatred Came To Dominate American Politics
21. US Army conducts first-of-its-kind exercise for tactical information warfare unit
22. Ex-Green Beret to be extradited to Japan as Japanese corporate criminals remain at large
23. Covid-19 Reinfection Casts Doubt On Virus Immunity: Study
24. Will the Cultural Revolution Be Canceled?

1. China furious with global outcry over Xinjiang and Hong Kong
If you do not want to be furious, the solution is simple. Stop the human rights abuses and likely crimes against humanity (likely in Xinjiang)

China furious with global outcry over Xinjiang and Hong Kong | DW | 08.10.2020

DW · by Deutsche Welle (www.dw.com)
In the declaration drafted by Germany and presented at the UN General Assembly in New York on Tuesday, 39 predominantly Western countries denounced China for gross human rights violations in the western Chinese province of Xinjiang and the autonomous region of Tibet, and for limiting political and personal freedoms in Hong Kong.
In the statement endorsed by the UK, the US and many EU countries, Germany's ambassador to the UN, Christoph Heusgen, decried the "widespread surveillance [that] disproportionately continues to target Uighur and other minorities" as well as "forced labor and forced birth control including sterilization." He also criticized the existence of political re-education camps in Xinjiang, where more than a million people had reportedly been detained.
Regarding Hong Kong, the German ambassador expressed "deep concerns" about elements of the recently enacted national security law, which allowed for certain cases to be transferred for prosecution to mainland China. He also demanded that Beijing ensure "freedoms of speech, press and assembly."

An angry response

China's ambassador to the UN, Zhang Jun, responded with an irate statement, saying the accusations were "groundless" and that his country "opposes interference in internal affairs." In separate statements, Pakistan and Cuba voiced their support for Beijing's position, as did a group of mainly African and Arab countries, Russia and Venezuela.
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Germany growing wary of Beijing

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Did Germany get too friendly with China?

Beijing's anger was in part due to the fact that it had not anticipated such a surge in support for the declaration, according to a diplomat who spoke to DW on condition of anonymity.
Other officials, who also wished to remain unnamed, told DW that Beijing had not expected more than 30 countries to join and had begun a political pressure campaign to prevent countries from signing the statement.
In the end, 39 countries signed on to the declaration, 16 more than last year, with Bosnia and Herzegovina joining literally at the last minute. This was the result of weeks of lobbying by diplomats from Germany, the UK and the US, who clandestinely spoke to other UN states asking for their support. The list remained classified until minutes before Germany's UN ambassador Heusgen read the statement in New York, for fear signatories might be poached by China at the last moment.

Let's be friends, or else

China is known to play hardball with countries that it thinks are planning to sign on to international statements criticizing its activities. "Countries do report to us a significant amount of pressure, including threats around economic cooperation from China if support is not given", British Ambassador to the UN, Jonathan Allen, said in a press conference after Tuesday's UN meeting.
In 2019, for example, Beijing threatened to thwart Austria's attempts to find a new location for its embassy in the Chinese capital if it signed a declaration condemning the Asian superpower's human rights violations. Vienna signed the statement anyway, but another European signatory was cut off from Chinese economic support after endorsing the declaration.
On another occasion, Lebanon was told Beijing would oppose the extension of the UNIFIL peacekeeping mission in the country if it didn't side with China, a permanent member of the UN Security Council.
Several UN diplomats told DW that they were being hounded by their Chinese counterparts in the run-up to issuing statements critical of the Asian country. One spoke about how aggressively she was pursued by a diplomat from Beijing. "They're in your face all the time," she said. "They call you, they text you, in the evenings, on the weekends, it's incessant."
One time, she recalls her Chinese counterparts deliberately creating a situation to intimidate her. "They would gang up on me, ask me to come outside where more of their colleagues were waiting, it was a three-on-one situation and they were really aggressive."
Several other diplomats, who wished to remain unnamed, told DW that Chinese embassy staff had, on various occasions, presented them with false information about what their superiors had allegedly agreed to, to wrest compliance.
DW reached out to the Chinese mission in the UN for comment, but is yet to receive a response.
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Hong Kongers flee to Taiwan

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Criticizing China's Hong Kong policy from Taiwan

Might is right

"Some countries are happy to be on China's side, like Russia, Syria, Cuba or Venezuela," Lou Charbonneau, United Nations director at Human Rights Watch (HRW), told DW, adding, "Others endorse China's position only because of fear of repercussions."
Indeed, China's aggressive tactics seem to work sometimes. Last year, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and Saudi Arabia supported a delicately formulated statement delivered by Kuwait, in which it spoke out in favor of human rights, but was careful not to antagonize China. This year, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain showed up with a similar announcement.
But Tuesday's UN statement shows that Beijing's tactics may be backfiring. In German ambassador Christoph Heusgen's words, "More and more countries are feeling increasingly uncomfortable with China."
However, Chinese influence is growing in poorer countries, like those in Africa, or in European countries like Greece, where it continues to invest heavily. This may have an impact on garnering international support against rights violations in the country.
But HRW's Charbonneau believes this strategy won't pay off in the long run and the number of countries critical of China over the country's human rights record will keep going up. "The more countries speak out, the more others feel they can do the same," he said.
"With every one of these statements and with every country that signs on to them, the political costs for China's non-compliance with international norms go up," Charbonneau underlined. "If they want to be part of the international community, they need to change."
DW · by Deutsche Welle (www.dw.com)

2. The Man Who Speaks Softly - and Commands a Big Cyber Army
A long, fascinating read.

Conclusion: "That may be partly because Nakasone's steadiness as a leader obviates the need, for now. Oddly, in an era where so much of government and the Washington bureaucracy seems broken or sclerotic or scandal-prone, Nakasone's greatest success seems to be simply avoiding attention - good or bad. Because on the question of whether to keep his current empire intact, Nakasone happens to have a strong opinion. "Paul is adamantly opposed to the separation of Cyber Command from the NSA," says one official. In this as in so many areas of American cyber strategy, the official says, "Paul has prevailed."

The Man Who Speaks Softly - and Commands a Big Cyber Army

Wired · by Garrett M. Graff
Meet General Paul Nakasone. He reined in chaos at the NSA and taught the US military how to launch pervasive cyberattacks. And he did it all without you noticing.
In the years before he became America's most powerful spy, Paul Nakasone acquired an unusually personal understanding of the country's worst intelligence failures.
Growing up, he was reared on his father Edwin's recollections of December 7, 1941: how Edwin, then age 14, was eating a bowl of cornflakes with Carnation powdered milk when he saw Japanese Zeros racing past the family's screen door on Oahu on their way to attack Pearl Harbor. They were so close that Edwin, who would grow up to become an Army intelligence officer, could see one of the pilots. "I can still remember to this day," Edwin would recall years later, "that he had his hachimaki-his headband-around, goggles on."
Decades later, Paul himself experienced another disastrous surprise attack on America at close range: He was working as an intelligence planner inside the Pentagon on the clear September Tuesday when American Airlines Flight 77 crashed into the building. He remembers evacuating about an hour after the attack and looking over his shoulder at the giant column of black smoke rising from the building where he went to work every day.
Over the next 15 years, as America waged the resulting war on terror, Paul Nakasone became one of the nation's founding cyberwarriors-an elite group that basically invented the doctrine that would guide how the US fights in a virtual world. By 2016 he had risen to command a group called the Cyber National Mission Force, and he was hard at work waging cyberattacks against the Islamic State when the US suffered another ambush by a foreign adversary: the Kremlin's assault on the 2016 presidential election.
This attack, however, happened not with a bang but with a slow, insidious spread. As it unfolded, Nakasone lived through the confusing experience inside Fort Meade-the onyx-black headquarters of both the National Security Agency and a then-fledgling military entity called US Cyber Command. As sketchy intelligence on Russian meddling coalesced through the summer and fall of 2016, his colleagues were so caught off-guard that one of the most senior leaders of Cyber Command told me he remembers learning about the election interference mainly in the newspaper. "We weren't even focused on it," the leader says. "It was just a blind spot."
Four years later, Nakasone is now the four-star general in charge of both Cyber Command and the NSA-one of the officials most directly in charge of preventing another surprise attack, whenever and wherever it may come, whether in the physical world or the virtual. He is only the third person to occupy what is perhaps the most powerful intelligence role ever created, a so-called "dual hat" in government parlance. As director of the NSA, he commands one of the greatest surveillance-or "signals intelligence"-machines in the world; as the leader of Cyber Command, he is in charge not only of defending the US against cyberattacks but also of executing cyberattacks against the nation's enemies.
Nakasone inherited and then steadied an NSA in crisis, shaken by years of security breaches, chronic brain drain, and antagonism from a president obsessed with a supposed "deep state" operation to undermine him. Nakasone's Cyber Command, meanwhile, is a once-restrained institution that has been unshackled to fight the nation's enemies online. A quiet beneficiary of Donald Trump's details-be-damned leadership philosophy, Nakasone has found himself with unparalleled, historic power-with more online firepower at his disposal than the US military has ever fielded before, as well as more latitude to execute individual missions and target adversaries than any military commander has ever been given. It's as if during the Cold War the White House had delegated targeting authority to the commander in charge of maintaining the nation's missile silos.
Nakasone's offensive cyber strategy, which was developed under the eye of Trump's former national security adviser John Bolton, represents a paradigm shift in how the US confronts its adversaries online. Rather than waiting to respond to an attack, Nakasone and US Cyber Command have shifted to talk of "persistent engagement," "defending forward," and "hunting forward," amorphous terms that encompass everything from mounting digital assaults on ISIS and Iran's air defense systems to laying the groundwork for taking down Russia's electrical grid.
While the precise operations remain tightly classified, and only three have been publicly reported-a 2018 campaign against the Russian Internet Research Agency, a 2019 attack on Iran, and a recent operation aimed at disrupting the very large Trickbot botnet-it is likely that Nakasone has already, in his short, two-year tenure, launched more cyberattacks against US adversaries than Fort Meade had initiated in the rest of its history. According to WIRED's reporting, Cyber Command has carried out at least two other sets of operations since the fall of 2019 without public knowledge. Without confirming specific numbers or operations, the White House made clear that's exactly what it expects of Nakasone. Trump officials say they charged him with dramatically stepping up the tempo of American digital warfare. "We weren't asking, 'Can we do two or three more operations right now?' We were asking, 'Can we do 10 times more activity right now?'" a senior administration official explains. "President Trump's answer was yes."
Nakasone was appointed to his position by Trump, but by custom his term will extend until 2022, and his influence stretches back at least a decade. He's done more than perhaps any other military or civilian leader over that period to push, drag, and pull the United States into thinking through what warfare will look like in the 21st century. As one of Nakasone's former bosses told me, America's way of cyberwar has developed over the course of a 10-year journey, ushered along by a select few, and "Paul's been on that journey since the beginning." Where American cyber strategy is concerned, we live where Nakasone has taken us.
The quirkiest thing about Paul Nakasone is that he prefers to write with a pencil. Friends and colleagues-including dozens of people who have known him for decades and worked with him in offices and combat zones, sometimes in enormously stressful environments-universally struggled to come up with telling anecdotes about him or to identify his personal idiosyncrasies or eccentricities. Apparently, he purses his lips when he's thinking, and he reads a lot of books.
The pencil thing, though, made an impression. An oversize No. 2 pencil, a farewell gift from one of his former commands, today stands as one of the only pieces of personal memorabilia in his otherwise spartan office at Fort Meade. His workplace aesthetic largely eschews the plaques, coins, flags, and honorary photographs that often plaster the offices of four-star generals. But Nakasone has held onto that big yellow pencil, and he always has a regular-size one ready for jotting down thoughts in meetings; throughout the day, his aide carries a ready supply of sharpened pencils in case of a broken tip.
Few Americans would recognize Nakasone if they saw him walking down the street. He throws off the vibe of a Midwestern suburban dad, which he is. (He and his wife have four children, the youngest of whom are just entering college, and Nakasone is deeply loyal to Minnesota, where he grew up.) "Level-headed, non-emotional, well-prepared, and exceedingly decent" is how Denis McDonough, a longtime friend who served as Barack Obama's White House chief of staff, describes him. Yet Nakasone not only leads Cyber Command, he was one of its architects, and he was a key figure in each stage of its operational trials and evolution.
All along, he's been a Zelig-like figure, the ultimate gray man, whose views about surveillance, intelligence, and war-fighting have remained remarkably opaque. He spent most of his career in the shadow of much larger and more visible personalities-serving as a key aide to Cyber Command's founding leader and visionary, Keith Alexander, and working under Mike Rogers' volatile tenure at Fort Meade-and he now studiously avoids attention amid the chaos and controversies of Donald Trump's Washington.
Not surprisingly, the NSA's public affairs office would not make Nakasone available for an interview. But this article draws on more than 50 hours of interviews with some three dozen current and former officials from the White House, government, intelligence agencies, and the military-including a half-dozen fellow generals-as well as Capitol Hill leaders, outside observers, and foreign intelligence partners; nearly all of them asked to speak anonymously in order to discuss sensitive intelligence, operational, and personnel topics. Their insights into Nakasone, and the story of how he ended up atop Fort Meade, don't just help explain how America is planning to fight the next war online-they help explain the wars it is already fighting.
It was war that brought the Nakasone family across the Pacific from Japan in the first place. In 1905, Paul's grandfather fled hostilities between Russia and Japan, two expansionist empires, and settled in Hawaii. Paul's father, Edwin, grew up selling strawberries door to door to his family's haole (white) neighbors. Four years after witnessing the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor, Edwin joined the Army; as a young intelligence officer, he was dispatched to occupied Japan as an interpreter. After his service, Edwin attended the University of Minnesota on the GI Bill in 1950. He met his wife, Mary Costello, a librarian, when he asked her for help with a paper about India. They were married in 1954, and their second son, Paul, was born just three days before John F. Kennedy was assassinated in 1963.
As he grew up, Paul kept faith with his family's devout Catholicism and his father's military service. He attended Saint John's University, a Benedictine institution in Minnesota, as an ROTC cadet. Immediately after graduation, he went off to Fort Carson, Colorado, following his father into Army intelligence.
The first 15 years of Nakasone's military career were relatively unremarkable. He spent much of the 1990s serving in Korea and working desk jobs at the Pentagon. But in the post-9/11 era, he became particularly attuned to the ways American intelligence had failed to keep pace with the digital age. As the US military was mobilizing to invade Iraq, he led a battalion at Fort Gordon, Georgia, a center of the military's signals intelligence work. He and his wife were juggling brand-new twins, their third and fourth children, while his team at Fort Gordon found itself struggling to overhaul the Army's slow approach to delivering intelligence to the field. "He wasn't in combat, but he found a way to make everything that we got relevant to those who were," recalls Jennifer Buckner, a now-retired brigadier general who served with him at Fort Gordon. In July 2005 he went to Iraq, experiencing firsthand how intelligence filtered down to soldiers-or didn't-on the modern battlefield.
In June 2007, the same month the iPhone was released, Nakasone landed at Fort Meade. He took over command of the Meade Operations Center, a unit designed to wrangle the NSA's capabilities to support combat troops around the world. (The NSA, which is part of the Defense Department but not part of the military, is technically something called a "combat support agency.")
At the time, Nakasone thought this might be his final assignment in the military. He had just made colonel, and the career path ahead of him narrowed sharply; there weren't many openings to become a general in Army intelligence. Up until then, Nakasone was seen as bright but not really a highflier-not, say, a Michael Flynn, the hotshot officer a few years his senior who was then running intelligence for US Central Command in the Middle East. Plus, he was a cyber specialist; there wasn't much of a proven career path for someone with his area of expertise.
But Nakasone's arrival at Fort Meade came at an auspicious moment. The director of the NSA, Keith Alexander, then a three-star Army general, was growing frustrated that his agency was failing to support the men and women at war in Iraq and Afghanistan. He was on the lookout for like-minded leaders who could help him transform it.
The NSA that Alexander inherited was a proud institution, steeped in its own history of wartime code-breaking and code-making. "NSA's job at the end of the day is to exceed the expectations of its adversaries," one former top official told me. "That audacity is essentially steeped in the sense that 'we do the impossible and leave the ordinary to everybody else.'" It was also, however, an institution largely designed to counter Soviet aggression in a world of landlines. The NSA's historic strategy was to intercept the telecommunications of foreign governments, eavesdropping on fixed targets over long stretches of time. To explain its culture of strategic patience, NSA veterans sometimes point to the story of Laura Holmes, an internally legendary Cold War cryptologist. Asked about her success breaking Soviet communications, she once said simply: "Nothing miraculous about it. I spent two years learning to speak Russian, two years learning to think Russian, two years learning to understand what experience, what arrogance, and what hubris they would bring to bear, and then I spent the rest of my career waiting for them to do that."
That culture was increasingly ill-suited to an era of fast-moving stateless terrorists, cell phones, and digital communications. As Alexander examined the support the NSA could provide to the surge in Iraq, he realized it was failing the troops on the front line-sending too little, too late "down range." The agency calculated that it was delivering roughly 10 percent of what it knew, 18 hours after the fact.
Alexander was a visionary technician. His management style was to set impossible tasks as a way of forcing an organization to rethink problems and come up with radical new approaches. He told his senior leadership that he wanted the NSA to start delivering 100 percent of its relevant intelligence and combat data to the war zone in a minute or less. The goal was clearly out of the question, but it touched off an audacious rethinking of how to connect back-end intelligence gathering with frontline troops.
One part of the solution was to place cryptologists in Iraq to receive encrypted intelligence from Fort Meade and then dole it out to combat units. The job of figuring out who to send fell to Nakasone, then a relatively young lieutenant colonel. He had served as the assignment officer for the Army's intelligence branch for a time in the 1990s and had a good grasp of the talent in the ranks, so he was able to assemble a particularly effective set of leaders for the job. "He was a soldier's soldier, selfless, very much people-oriented," says one of his colleagues from that time. "I wouldn't say he was brilliant-that's not a criticism. His approach was just 'Give me a hard job and I'll get to it.'"
Nakasone's performance so impressed Alexander that he soon tapped the young colonel to lead a new team that would invent a whole new way of war. In the years after that, Nakasone amassed four stars faster than almost any other officer of his generation.
In October 2008, NSA officials made a startling discovery: Someone had managed to penetrate the military's classified network, which was supposed to be fully disconnected from the public internet. While they never figured out for sure what happened, US officials came to believe that Russia had seeded thumb drives infected with malware among the electronics for sale in the bazaars around US bases in Afghanistan. Investigators surmised that an unsuspecting service member may have purchased and used one, against regulation, on the classified system.
The US response came to be known as Buckshot Yankee-a secret, round-the-clock, 18-month effort led by Alexander to rid the Russians from the network. It forever changed how the military looked at cyberspace. Most important, it ushered in the idea that the internet wasn't just useful for intelligence gathering, it was also an actual theater of war. And if cyberspace was a battlefield, the US had better figure out how to command its own troops there.
In 2009, the Obama administration and Alexander started to think through what such a "cyber command" would look like. Alexander, who loved the domain of big ideas, assembled a small brain trust of senior officers to work out the details. Nakasone was one of them. In 2018 he joked to one audience about being cornered by Alexander: "He said, 'I've got this idea.' Now, for those of you that know Keith Alexander, that's either you run or you hide-and I missed both opportunities."
Nakasone found himself conscripted together with three other relatively young officers. The quartet was formally called the Implementation Team, but everyone came to refer to them as the Four Horsemen (despite the fact that one member, a cybersecurity whiz and lieutenant colonel named Jen Easterly, was a woman). They were faced with a once-in-a-generation opportunity to rethink how the nation would fight in a new century-a military revolution as significant as the 19th-century shift from single-shot rifles to machine guns, or the 20th-century move from fighting on land to a world of fighter planes and bombers.
Nakasone, the putative leader of the four, set up the team in a conference room down the hall from Alexander's office, and they spent months working through what the Cyber Command would look like. They worked six days a week, late into the evening, and usually a half-day on Sundays. Nakasone had a less-technical background than some of the others, but he intimately understood the world of military intelligence and-most important-had the boss's ear. "He was probably the guy that General Alexander trusted the most," recalls then-Army-colonel Stephen L. Davis, another member of the team.
The goal was to create an entity that could defend US military networks against cyberattacks but could also occasionally go on the offensive-to wage cyberattacks against the digital infrastructure of America's adversaries. But one of the biggest questions they wrestled with was whether to publicly discuss this latter orientation. In the late 2000s, Alexander's NSA, working together with Israel and the CIA, essentially raised the curtain on the modern era of cyberwar when they developed a worm called Stuxnet and used it to disable Iranian nuclear centrifuges. Stuxnet made headlines around the world, but the congenitally secretive NSA has never taken credit for the attack, and many in US intelligence preferred to keep playing dumb where cyberwar was concerned. "It was a big battle within the department," Davis recalls. The Four Horsemen, Davis says, were all in favor of plainly stating the command's full mission; the compromise was to state it, but vaguely.
As a unit operating in a gray area between two agencies, they also navigated institutional jealousies. The NSA was convinced, members of the team recall, that the group's closed-door sessions augured a hostile takeover of Fort Meade by the military, whereas the Pentagon was convinced the effort represented a land grab of the military's operations by the NSA.
A couple of nights each week, Alexander would stop by the conference room as he was leaving for the day, to check on the team's progress. He'd sit down at one of their desks, kick his feet up, and they'd talk through the thorniest problems they were facing. In coming up with a vision for the military's digital war machine, they had to figure out a whole new combat doctrine and the beginnings of an org chart. Recognizing that Cyber Command would start with no tools or digital infrastructure of its own, they decided that it would lean heavily on calling up the NSA's resources to do its job. Over time, they boiled a multi-hundred-page work plan down to a series of storyboards-an illustrated guide to the complex challenges of cyberwar and how to meet them, drawing on an extended metaphor that involved a gated community. "It ended up being essentially a top-secret cartoon," Davis recalls.
Storyboards in hand, they briefed officials at the White House, Pentagon, and on Capitol Hill. During one congressional briefing, they locked themselves out of their classified material "lock bag" and had to hack into it with scissors. "They had done two years of really hard work slogging through the operational mandate from Buckshot Yankee, and put that into a really compelling story on how we might think about doing things differently," recalls Buckner, who helped staff the effort.
In 2010, Cyber Command officially came into existence, with Keith Alexander serving as its first commander. The new role earned him his fourth star as a general, even though it at first involved overseeing just a few hundred additional people.
In the end, the team's graphic designer came up with perhaps the nerdiest and most concrete way to memorialize their vision: They incorporated into Cyber Command's official emblem an encrypted Easter egg, a string of seeming gibberish wrapping around the center of the emblem, 9ec4c12949a4f31474f299058ce2b22a, that decodes, using the MD5 hash algorithm, into the mission statement drafted by the Implementation Team. (The decoded mission statement itself, written in intense Pentagon bureaucratese, is only slightly easier to parse than the 128-bit encoded version.)
The birth of Cyber Command brought disharmony to the household of Fort Meade. The NSA's largely civilian, analytical workforce had long meshed awkwardly with its military leaders-at 5 pm, when the standard military "retreat" bugle call was piped across Fort Meade, Alexander would chafe at civilians who didn't stand, hand over heart, and pay their respects to the daily lowering of the flag. Now that culture clash was exacerbated by the flood of uniformed Cyber Command personnel showing up at NSA headquarters, competing for attention, resources, and space on an already crowded campus. These military newcomers spread out like kudzu-"parasitically," as one NSA official would tell me-across Fort Meade, filling in whatever niches they could.
Moreover, the patient, long-term intelligence-gathering ethos of the NSA quickly collided with Cyber Command's desire to visibly demonstrate its capabilities. Officials at the top of the two organizations couldn't quite square how to do that without exposing the NSA's prized "sources and methods" to foreign adversaries. NSA observers also began to notice that Cyber Command seemed to be taking pride of place in the hierarchy. Public announcements always listed Cyber Command ahead of the NSA, and its flag appeared to the right of the NSA's at official events-denoting in protocol a higher status.
In the midst of all that, the prim, buttoned-up older sibling that was the NSA landed in the biggest trouble of its life. In the spring of 2013, Edward Snowden walked away from his job as an NSA contractor, flew to Hong Kong, and turned over the agency's innermost secrets to journalists Laura Poitras, Glenn Greenwald, Barton Gellman, and others-more than 1.5 million documents that seemed to outline a terrifying global surveillance dragnet, far exceeding the public's imagination of US spy capabilities. Day after day, Fort Meade was rocked by new revelations and controversies. The NSA had long kept a uniquely low profile as an intelligence agency; its nickname in government circles was simply "No Such Agency." That low profile, though, also meant the agency was unaccustomed to public controversy and had little of the political savvy of the other big intelligence agencies in Washington, the FBI and CIA. Stephanie O'Sullivan, the principal deputy director of national intelligence and a career veteran of the much more politically fraught CIA, joked to NSA executives in one meeting, "Welcome to the club."
The public opprobrium at the Snowden revelations stunned the NSA rank and file. "It immediately caused us to question ourselves," recalls Debora Plunkett, one of the NSA's top officials at the time. Suddenly, in the public imagination, the NSA ran an omniscient panopticon that freely abused the civil liberties of the guilty and innocent alike; it didn't matter that agency officials prided themselves on rigorous adherence to the rule of law and felt that they'd kept congressional overseers informed about their activities. "The shock was a shock," then director of national intelligence James Clapper told me back in 2016.
The ongoing scandal further exacerbated tensions inside Fort Meade. The Snowden revelations savaged the NSA's public profile but left the growing Cyber Command's reputation unscathed. "Every time somebody talks about Cyber Command, you hear the angels sing," one senior official at the time says. "And every time you talk about NSA, you hear 'you dirty rat bastards with malevolence in your heart.'" All the while, the NSA was still carrying out much of Cyber Command's work, like a disfavored child who still does all the laundry.
Fort Meade was facing one of the darkest chapters in its history. "There was a lot of internal turmoil and infighting," recalls Edward Cardon, who took over as head of the Army's portion of Cyber Command in September 2013. Cardon had a reputation as an expert in organizational transformation, and soon he was joined by another leader known for his steady hand. Coming off a year in Afghanistan, Nakasone returned to the Washington area in August 2013 as the new deputy commander of Cardon's Army Cyber Command, assuming the day-to-day operations of the branch's new online warriors.
As the Snowden leaks continued to be published week by week, Nakasone and Cardon worked together all day in a windowless SCIF-a "secure compartmented information facility" specially designed to prevent eavesdropping-at Fort Belvoir, just south of DC, trying to weave together three distinct cultures within the command: communication techs from the Army's signal corps, intelligence personnel from both the military and the NSA, and what Cardon called "the hardcore cyber people," the futurist techies and geeks, some of whom had little interest in military discipline and traditions. "Building that into a cohesive unit?" Cardon says. "Well, you can imagine."
Cardon and Nakasone were still establishing Cyber Command's most basic capabilities. Only about 100 people in the Army had the right set of cybersecurity skills; their goal was to figure out a way to ramp that up to about 2,000. Over the long haul, they realized, the answer was to professionalize a cyber career path in the Army, so there could be career cyber officers the same way there were career infantry, cavalry, and ordnance officers.
As part of that effort, in September 2014, the Army established a cyber branch, its first new branch since the special forces were created three decades before. By then, Nakasone had already moved on to his next role. In May of that year, he assumed leadership of what was known as the Cyber National Mission Force, the offensive arm of US Cyber Command. The new role marked Nakasone as perhaps the nation's foremost cyberwarrior. The only trouble was, it wasn't clear that the US had much interest yet in putting its cyberwarriors into battle.
When Keith Alexander retired in 2014, the tenor of his farewell ceremony drove home that policymakers wanted the US military to hold back its firepower in cyberspace. "DOD will maintain an approach of restraint to any cyber operations outside the US government networks. We are urging other nations to do the same," said defense secretary Chuck Hagel at Alexander's retirement.
Nakasone believed otherwise, Cardon says: "He was advocating pretty strongly that we need to demonstrate the capability of these teams and what they're doing." In part, this was just a matter of growing the institution. "Demonstrated capability brings attention and resources," Cardon says. "If people think you can do things, it attracts great players. We were like-minded. He knew how to go after this." They were just waiting for a moment when Cyber Command could prove itself. It would come sooner than they might have imagined.
The American fight against ISIS came out of almost nowhere in 2015, throwing a nation already wary of an endless war in Iraq back into renewed combat in the Middle East and instilling a sense of growing dread at home. The years-old civil war in Syria had spawned a brutal terror group whose creative use of social media managed to inspire a global wave of would-be jihadists; deadly attacks by self-professed members of ISIS in London, Paris, and San Bernardino, California, put the West on edge in a way it hadn't been since the days following 9/11. "We then looked to anything-including the kitchen sink-to help bring things to closure in this fight," recalls one senior Pentagon official of that time.
The pressure inside the US government was crushing; ISIS proved to be a resilient adversary, and the situation in the Middle East risked engulfing the US in a geopolitical nightmare, as Russia, Iran, and Turkey waded in to support different rivals in the Syrian war. At home, Senator John McCain blasted the Obama administration for its seeming helplessness in the face of a growing humanitarian crisis.
Around this same time, a new set of national security leaders-ones who were less prone to restraint-had filled out the Obama administration. Hagel had been replaced as defense secretary by Ashton Carter, a technophile who quickly became frustrated that Cyber Command seemed to be stuck in park. On more than one occasion, says one NSA official, Carter vented his fury at Mike Rogers, the Navy admiral who had taken over as NSA director and the second-ever chief of Cyber Command, urging him to put his new tool to use. Finally, ISIS seemed to present an opportunity for Cyber Command to prove itself.
This was the moment Cardon and Nakasone had been waiting for. On April 7, 2016, Cyber Command began assembling Joint Task Force-ARES, a small team of 50 to 100 named after the Greek god of war. By June, Cardon had put together what would turn out to be the nation's first publicly acknowledged combat force in cyberspace, and Nakasone would command it. One of the innovations of the Cyber National Mission Force was that all of the various service teams were trained to the same standard-an Air Force interactive operator had the same skills as a Marine one, which was a semi-radical idea for a military that normally lets each branch train according to its own pet priorities. It meant that Nakasone could bring together the best operators from across the services. Nakasone carved out a corner of his Cyber National Mission Force offices to house the ARES team, a short elevator ride down from his own.
The team-working in the open space amid screens and standing desks-would have looked familiar to a visitor from Silicon Valley; its esprit de corps was unusually egalitarian for the military. "We didn't care about rank or service," recalls Buckner. "We had a lot of really junior officers, soldiers, airmen, Marines, sailors-you were all equals in this fight."
Nakasone would make regular appearances on the operations floor. He'd listen closely as the team provided updates or batted around potential avenues of attack, his lips pursed in thought. "We'd do these briefings, and at the end of that 45- to 50-minute meeting, he would sit there and summarize the whole thing in two minutes," recalls Stephen Donald, a Navy reservist who served as the chief of staff for the ARES effort. "He has that uncanny ability to take it all in his head."
They had to build their battle plan from scratch. First they had to map out how ISIS operated online-a laborious process in itself-then figure out how to draw the right targets on that map. The deputy chief of Cyber Command, Kevin McLaughlin, who chaired the targeting committee, would often say in early briefings, "Tell me in English, what's this gonna do to them?" The answer, too often, amounted to a hack that would inflict a minor inconvenience at best. Instead, McLaughlin told the team to constantly ask itself, "What are the types of things that you can do in cyber that actually make a difference to the war-fighting side?"
As ever, the NSA often applied the brakes. The Snowden leaks had exposed many of its secret programs and capabilities, forcing the agency to painstakingly rebuild its exploits and infrastructure around the world. Now, Cyber Command risked revealing its surviving programs and new infrastructure. There were frequent debates about the trade-offs of using, and therefore jeopardizing, particular assets or exploits.
More broadly, Cardon recalls, there was the old, ingrained philosophical clash between military operators geared toward the battlefield and intelligence professionals, who operate in the shadows and whose instinct is to protect their hiding places and secret backdoors. With ARES, that clash seemed to come to a head. "They would say, 'If you do it like that, they'll know it's you!'" Cardon says. "I'd just look at them and say, 'Who cares? When I'm using artillery, attack aviation, jets-you think they don't know that it's the United States of America?'"
Throughout, the pressure from the top was unrelenting. Rogers "wanted to pull out all the stops to pass this test," a senior official recalls. Even while the effort was weeks old, Pentagon officials began complaining in the press about the slowness of the progress. The crew was working 14-hour days, seven days a week.
Finally, ARES had done the reconnaissance and laid its groundwork, penetrating ISIS' networks and communication channels, laying malware and backdoors to ensure later access. The president had been briefed. The plan was dubbed Operation Glowing Symphony, and it would attempt to combat ISIS online by exploiting a careless weakness. The ARES team had discovered that despite ISIS' sophisticated, multifaceted global media campaign, the terror group was just as lazy as most internet users. Nearly everything it did connected through just 10 online accounts.
On November 8, 2016-Election Day in the US-D-Day arrived. Methodically, ARES unleashed a digital assault targeting the terror group's ability to conduct internal communications and reach potential recruits. "We launched everything," Donald recalls.
Almost immediately, they ran into an unexpected roadblock: They were trying to break into one of the targeted accounts when up popped a simple security question: "What is the name of your pet?" A sense of dread permeated the operations floor, until an analyst piped up from the back. The answer, he said, was 1-2-5-7. "I've been looking at this guy for a year-he does it for everything," the analyst explained. And sure enough, the code worked. Glowing Symphony was underway.
The team moved one by one to block ISIS from its own accounts, deleting files, resetting controls, and disabling the group's online operations. "Within the first 60 minutes of go, I knew we were having success," Nakasone told NPR's Dina Temple-Raston in a rare interview last year. "We would see the targets start to come down. It's hard to describe, but you can just sense it from being in the atmosphere that the operators, they know they're doing really well."
For hours that first day, operators crossed off their targets from a large sheet hung on the wall as each was taken offline. But that was just the start. In later phases, the ARES team moved to undermine ISIS' confidence in its own systems-and members. The team slowed down the group's uploads, deleted key files, and otherwise spread what appeared to be IT gremlins throughout their networks with the goal of injecting friction and frustration into ISIS' heretofore smooth global march. The task force also moved to locate candidates for what it called "lethal fire." Taken together, ARES proved successful-ISIS' operations slowed as piece after piece of the terror group's media empire was shuttered, from its online magazine to its official news app.
The attack became a critical proof of concept that the US could go on the offensive in cyberspace. "Operation Glowing Symphony was what broke the dam," Buckner says. "It gave an actual operational example that people could understand."
The success of ARES also stood out because very little else seemed to be going right at Fort Meade. Through the summer of 2016, a group known as the Shadow Brokers had been posting hacking tools and exploits somehow stolen from the NSA, and in August of that year the FBI secretly arrested a former NSA contractor for removing files-approximately 50 terabytes of data-from the agency. Agents investigating the leaks had been appalled by the inadequacy of some of the security procedures they uncovered in one of the NSA's most elite units. Both James Clapper, the director of national intelligence, and Carter, the defense secretary, began to feel that Rogers hadn't done enough to lock down the agency's crown jewels-and that he generally wasn't the right person for the job.
Though a brilliant technologist, the career Navy man seemed ill-suited for command of a large civilian workforce. He could be intemperate with staff, dressing down senior Cyber Command officers in meetings and clashing with the NSA's civilians, who sometimes seemed to regard his directives as more suggestions than orders. Clapper and Carter also chastised him for spending too much time on public speaking engagements and on the road, telling him to devote more of his attention to Fort Meade. ("Might be a good idea to stay home," Clapper told him in one conversation.) By that fall, they'd begun to finalize plans to ease Rogers out and to split the "dual hat" role in two-to break Fort Meade up into a military Cyber Command and a civilian NSA. Obama hesitated to pull the trigger on such a major reorganization, though, thinking it a decision best left to his successor, who at the time he assumed would be Hillary Clinton.
But then, as the first hours of Operation Glowing Symphony wrought havoc on ISIS, Donald Trump's surprise victory upended all those plans and assumptions. In fact, the election caught the intelligence community flat-footed in more ways than one. As Russia had carried out a sophisticated three-pronged attack-the hacking and leaking of Democratic Party emails, efforts to penetrate voting systems and databases, and a broad social media campaign to amplify partisan division-US intelligence officials had grasped only the vague outline of the campaign as it played out, and they worried that publicly confronting it might prompt Russia to attempt a sabotage of the November vote itself. Neither side of Fort Meade had responded adequately: The NSA failed to recognize the breadth of the Russian effort, and Cyber Command was never told to fight back; the military side, officials at the time recall, was never really involved at all. "I think it was just a blind spot for us," says one of Cyber Command's top officials at the time. "I don't remember anyone turning to us and saying we need to do something to help make this not happen." Now, with the election returns pouring in, the Russians seemed to have gotten away with their meddling and had even seen their desired outcome: the election of Donald Trump.
Rogers, who understood how vulnerable his position was with Clapper and Carter, quickly embraced Trump, using personal leave to meet with the president-elect at Trump Tower just days after the election. Suddenly, the Obama White House dropped any hope of changing the NSA's structure or leadership, wary of being seen as doing anything to punish a military leader politically aligned with his opponent, especially one who might seem central to the building Russia scandal. "They thought it was totally radioactive to fire him and talk about the split," a senior Obama administration Pentagon official explains.
So in the end, the NSA's dysfunction and the government's uncertainty about how America would fight in cyberspace was kicked over the transom to Obama's unpredictable Republican successor.
Donald Trump's first weeks in the White House did not exactly lift spirits at the perpetually beleaguered NSA. Just weeks into his presidency, he angrily tweeted about leaks that he suspected were stemming from Fort Meade. "Information is being illegally given to the failing @nytimes & @washingtonpost by the intelligence community (NSA and FBI?). Just like Russia," he wrote on February 15, as part of a 7 am tweetstorm. Soon he was writing off the whole intelligence and military apparatus in Washington as the "deep state." Such comments horrified NSA insiders, who saw their work as critical to providing any commander in chief with the daily knowledge to do his job and keep America safe. As one NSA insider told me, "It's like my father called me a whore; you couldn't wrap your head around it."
Yet despite the president's persistent attacks on the intelligence community, Trump also provided an opening for the most significant transformation of cyber policy since the creation of Cyber Command in 2010. From the administration's earliest days, Trump staffers knew they wanted to shake things up. Their instinct that America needed to be more aggressive online jibed with a frustrated countercurrent of thinking that had been building up in the defense establishment in the latter years of the Obama administration, catching up with cyber hawks like Nakasone. "In order to make cyber a truly strategic capability, it needs to be available on order, with some degree of agility," one defense official says. "I think we've concluded that our restraint back in the day was, in fact, escalatory in and of itself."
Some members of an official Pentagon advisory group called the Defense Science Board had begun to make more or less this argument-that the traditional US inhibition online was emboldening foreign adversaries. Although Glowing Symphony showed the US could take preemptive action, such actions were still the exception. Iran, China, North Korea, and Russia felt free to launch virtual attacks and operations that stayed below the traditional threshold of war to undermine American power. Time and again, the US weathered online outrages in relative silence: China's 2014 theft of government personnel records; North Korea's 2014 suspected hack of Sony; Russia's 2016 attempt to manipulate the presidential election. "They were taking our lunch," says one former senior White House official. "We say we have all these capabilities, but our bureaucratic process isn't living up to that." What's more, the Trump administration was hardly out on a limb on this particular issue: "There was broad bipartisan agreement," the official says.
Another senior cyber official summarized the three-part mantra from Trump's National Security Council at the start of the administration: "Stop the bleeding, stop building things that bleed, and make the other guy bleed."
In 2017, the Trump administration began developing a full national cyber strategy that aimed to put the US on a more agile, proactive footing. The effort came not a moment too soon. While Trump himself aggressively downplayed any talk of Russian election interference, everyone outside the Oval Office felt the ticking clock of the approaching 2018 midterms and the desire to take a harder line against foreign meddling. That sense of foreboding only increased in 2017 as two massive state-sponsored ransomware attacks circled the globe-the Russian NotPetya virus, which actually incorporated a hacking tool stolen from the NSA, and the North Korean WannaCry. The attacks seeded hundreds of millions of dollars of destruction through corporate networks.
The pervasive cyberattacks added yet one more complication to the deteriorating situation at Fort Meade: Corporations were poaching its talent. JPMorgan went so far as to open a security center just miles away, to lure NSA workers by eliminating the trouble of relocating.
In the spring of 2018, the news broke that Mike Rogers was about to depart. To those who had spent the past decade working alongside Nakasone, there was really only one surprise when his name was put forward as the next NSA director and leader of Cyber Command: It came "faster than folks thought," says one former top NSA leader. "He was quick to do that job."
At a time of intense political polarization, Nakasone distinguished himself by sailing through the Senate confirmation process. His biggest challenge was getting through the obligatory meet-and-greet sessions with senators during Lent. Nakasone, an observant Catholic, had chosen that year to give up meat and caffeine; he weathered the grueling process without breaking his vow, never succumbing to a cup of coffee. (Even now, as NSA director, if his travel schedules on the road coincide with holy days like Ash Wednesday, his motorcade stops at church.)
In the end, his confirmation hearing was notable only for a single, frank exchange. Alaska Republican senator Dan Sullivan suggested that the US had become "the cyber punching bag of the world." Nakasone bluntly concurred. "I would say right now they do not think that much will happen to them," Nakasone said of foreign attackers. "They don't fear us. The longer that we have inactivity, the longer that our adversaries are able to establish their own norms."
Sullivan asked Nakasone if that was good. "It is not good, senator," came the reply. It was perhaps the most succinct public statement of his own strategic vision that Nakasone has ever offered.
Nakasone's ascension at Fort Meade completed a little-noticed but important transformation at the nation's top three intelligence agencies: The three controversial, larger-than-life public personalities-James Comey, Mike Pompeo, and Mike Rogers-who had led the FBI, CIA, and NSA at the start of the administration were all replaced within 18 months by comparatively bland professionals: Christopher Wray, Gina Haspel, and Nakasone. By all accounts, the three are each content to fade into the background amid the daily pandemonium of American government in the Trump era, and all work together well and closely.
Nakasone's low profile and calm has been an especially welcome change at Fort Meade. "People like working for him. You can see it in any room. He is expert, engaging, and humble," says a former Trump administration official who oversaw Nakasone. Even the atmosphere at the NSA lightened. "In as few as six months, it changed dramatically. It was a pretty remarkable turnaround," says the former Trump official. "Now, all of a sudden, you have an NSA that is producing a lot of shockingly good stuff."
Nakasone assumed leadership at a moment when everyone knew the US wasn't moving fast enough to address the threat of pervasive cyberwar. "We're in the middle of 9/11 right now," one former official said to me in 2018. "It's like the day of 9/11 was slowed down to cover 5 to 10 years, so we can't tell the towers are falling all around us."
Nakasone inherited a political and military landscape that had changed markedly since Alexander's time. Cyber Command had matured to more than 6,000 people, huge growth from the few hundred when Nakasone was first setting it up. The NSA, meanwhile, encompassed about 38,000 personnel, plus nearly 20,000 contractors.
But more than the sheer size of his empire, Nakasone had new powers. The White House bestowed on him an authority to make decisions on offensive operations that had always been tightly held by the president himself. Trump's National Security Council has turned to what it calls Auftragstaktik, a Prussian term that translates as "mission-type orders": The White House lays out the goal, the commander decides the tactics. As a senior administration figure says, "The president made his goals and strategic direction clear, then directed his team to carry out these goals and direction within applicable boundaries." (This approach seems to reflect both a genuine strategic vision that favors agility as well as a concession to the president's attention span. "Whether cyber or otherwise, the president is not particularly involved in the details," says the former White House official.) As one defense official explains it, "Trump, he alone had the courage-or maybe you call it recklessness-to say, 'Sure, do that thing, unleash this thing.' He didn't actually spend a lot of time thinking about what's the secondary or tertiary effects."
The approach was codified in September 2018 in the administration's completed cyber strategy, the first in 15 years, shepherded through by John Bolton, then the national security adviser. Bolton, who started at the White House just weeks before Nakasone took over at Fort Meade, also collapsed the National Security Council's approval process for cyber operations. "We've learned that you couldn't be more aggressive without being less bureaucratic," says a former White House official.
Nakasone quickly embraced his new authority under a philosophy he has dubbed "persistent engagement." In the fall of 2018, Cyber Command targeted the Russia hackers who had interfered in the 2016 election, an online operation only officially confirmed this summer by President Trump. Known as Synthetic Theology, the operation targeted the internet trolls of the Internet Research Agency, subjecting them to specific warnings (the message being "we know who you are") as well as knocking the Internet Research Agency offline on Election Day 2018 itself.
The idea, in part, is simply to bog adversaries down. "Some of the things we see today might just be screwing with your enemy enough that they're spending as much time trying to figure out what vulnerabilities they have, who screwed up, what's really going on," one official explains. "It takes the time and attention and the resources of your enemy."
Cyber Command's harassment of the IRA seemed to work; the midterm elections went off without much of a hitch. "The 2018 election was a resounding success," says US representative Elise Stefanik, a member of both the House Intelligence and Armed Services committees, which oversee Nakasone's world. The "persistent engagement" approach is, in many ways, an attempt to reconcile the lessons of the mission that Nakasone led against ISIS in 2016 with the old NSA philosophy of strategic patience. Online attacks can't be ordered up like a Tomahawk missile, deploying in hours to any place on the planet. "For cyber operations, you can't just ask the military, 'OK, we're ready for you now,'" says Buckner, who retired last year after heading cyber policy for the Army. "Those accesses and understanding of how an adversary works in cyberspace is built up over years, and if you want it years from now, you need to start now."
Eight months after the Russia mission, in June 2019, Iran shot down a US drone over the Strait of Hormuz. In response, Cyber Command attacked Iranian military communication networks and erased a tracking database that helped Iran target oil tankers and other ships in the Persian Gulf. A few months after that, Cyber Command dispatched a team to Montenegro to see firsthand how Russia was infiltrating networks there. Nakasone termed it a "hunt forward" mission, to be better prepared for future attacks on the US. Teams went to Ukraine and Macedonia too.
"We learned that we cannot afford to wait for cyberattacks to affect our military networks," Nakasone wrote this fall in Foreign Affairs. Writing with his senior adviser Michael Sulmeyer, he tried to outline the new strategy. "We learned that defending our military networks requires executing operations outside our military networks."
The NSA has also taken a few more steps into the light, communicating more with the wider security community; the tempo of bulletins warning of vulnerabilities and malware has notably increased in the past year, building in part on a formal disclosure process developed by the Trump administration in 2017. And Cyber Command has created a meeting space near Fort Meade designed to host unclassified briefings and conferences with industry.
Oddly, given the president's initial anger at the NSA as a key figure in his fantasized "deep state" conspiracies, the White House seems quite content with Nakasone and the work of the NSA and Cyber Command. "Nakasone" has never appeared in a single Trump tweet, and cyber policy has become one of the more stable planks in a chaotic administration. At the White House, the cyber portfolio has long been led by a young National Security Council staffer named Joshua Steinman-a former Navy officer, Silicon Valley luxury sock entrepreneur, and protégé of Michael Flynn-who has outlasted a dozen more-senior officials on Trump's senior staff. His three-piece suits, Windsor-knotted ties, and luxurious socks have become a rare constant, and he has been a steward of the vision that offensive and defensive NSA missions should be not the exception but the norm. "When the president came into office he made it very clear that we need to start competing more aggressively with our adversaries in cyberspace," says national security adviser Robert C. O'Brien. "Over the past three years, Josh and General Nakasone worked closely together to execute the president's objective."
Today, US cyberattacks are common enough-and the White House is happy enough with their outcomes-that O'Brien, who took over as Trump's fourth national security adviser in September 2019, has taken to writing personal notes, typed and hand-signed, to Cyber Command troops after successful operations. Notably, O'Brien sent at least two such letters between his start date and mid-September of this year, though there have been no publicly acknowledged US attacks in that period. (An operation to interfere with the Trickbot botnet, recently revealed by The Washington Post, has not been publicly acknowledged by the US government; it appears, from WIRED's reporting, to represent yet another new attack.)
While Cyber Command and the NSA have remained silent about specific plans to defend the 2020 election, Nakasone has repeatedly said that the US will fight back harder and faster than in 2016. "We're going to act," he promised in July. "Our number one objective at the National Security Agency and US Cyber Command: a safe, secure, and legitimate 2020 elections."
Whatever happens in November, Nakasone's empire is liable to continue being an island of relative stability. "Paul has just calmed the herd in the various organizations," says one former Cyber Command official. By all accounts, Nakasone, who is one of only four members of a racial or ethnic minority among the military's top 41 commanders, carries his authority lightly at Fort Meade. He reads voraciously, hoovering up recommendations from friends at any opportunity and pestering them with his own favorites: "Have you read this?" (He's recently been pushing Raymond Kethledge's a treatise on thinking detached from technology.) He is formal, gracious, and disciplined. Aides and colleagues joke that he rarely answers questions with more than two or three sentences, and his aides got used to him rattling off commands in three bullet points. "You see pens go to paper when he does it that way. There's a conciseness about his communication which is helpful for people who work with him," Buckner says.
Years ago, back at Fort Gordon, Nakasone's team and their families gathered every Friday night in his driveway for what they called "stone soup" potluck dinners and barbecues. In his current role, prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, he hosted senior government officials for four-person dinners in the NSA director's dining room. Greeted by printed menus and attended by his accomplished chef, guests would be given presentations by some of the NSA's brightest minds and then settle in for a discussion of agency challenges.
The biggest question now facing Fort Meade is whether Nakasone will be the last military commander of NSA; the decade-old "dual hat" role overseeing NSA and Cyber Command has outlasted numerous attempts to split the military arm of America's cyberwar machine from its civilian signals intelligence arm. James Mattis, Trump's first defense secretary, talked about splitting the roles at the end of 2018 but left office himself before seeing it though. Observers across the military intelligence community and Capitol Hill say they see little sign of any such movement now.
That may be partly because Nakasone's steadiness as a leader obviates the need, for now. Oddly, in an era where so much of government and the Washington bureaucracy seems broken or sclerotic or scandal-prone, Nakasone's greatest success seems to be simply avoiding attention - good or bad. Because on the question of whether to keep his current empire intact, Nakasone happens to have a strong opinion. "Paul is adamantly opposed to the separation of Cyber Command from the NSA," says one official. In this as in so many areas of American cyber strategy, the official says, "Paul has prevailed."
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Wired · by Garrett M. Graff

3. Afghans stunned, worried by Trump tweet to bring home U.S. troops early

By
Pamela Constable and
Sharif Hassan
Oct. 12, 2020 at 1:12 p.m. EDT
The Washington Post · October 12, 2020
KABUL - After months of tortuous negotiations and diplomatic efforts to settle the 19-year-old conflict in Afghanistan, President Trump's tweet last week saying he intends to bring all U.S. troops home by Christmas has landed here like a bomb from nowhere, leaving Afghan hopes for nascent peace talks scattered like shrapnel.
Taliban leaders have reacted with open delight, welcoming Trump's Oct. 7 statement and reportedly telling CBS News that they hoped he will win reelection in November. The group's top spokesman later said his comment to that effect had been "incorrectly" interpreted, after it set off a frenzy of controversy and was rejected by the White House.
But many Afghans and analysts say they fear that if Trump follows through, abruptly dropping the U.S.-Taliban agreement for a conditions-based and gradual pullout of the about 4,500 remaining U.S. troops by May, the country may plunge again into full-scale war and political mayhem.
"If the withdrawal takes place according to the tweet, it will create chaos. The peace process will collapse, and we will go back to square one," said Ehsanullah Zia, a former senior Afghan official who heads the Kabul office of the U.S. Institute of Peace. "This is the only thing the Taliban really wanted. People were becoming hopeful, but this sudden tweet has changed the scenario. Now all that investment, all that sacrifice, could go down the drain."
Fazel Mohammed, 60, a taxi driver who once served as a soldier in the Soviet-backed Afghan government of the 1980s, predicted that a quick withdrawal of U.S. troops could "plunge the country into a civil war, exactly like what happened after the Soviet forces left."
Afghan officials are playing down the impact of any early U.S. troop pullout, insisting that their forces are prepared to take on the Taliban alone and noting that they have fought largely without U.S. military help in recent months. Shah Mahmood Miakhel, a deputy defense minister, said that today, "99 percent of all military operations are planned and executed by Afghans."
On Sunday, Taliban fighters stormed two districts around Lashkar Gah, the capital of southern Helmand province, which they have tried to capture for years. They cut off the regional highway and the power supply. But Afghan special operations forces were sent in, backed up by airstrikes. Officials said the government forces quickly prevailed, killing 71 insurgents and arresting the group's "shadow" provincial governor.
Several officials said that even if the ongoing Afghan-Taliban talks in Qatar break off and the war continues, the insurgents will never be able to win power through violence because they lack the skills to govern, enjoy little popular support and would be shunned by both regional powers and the international community, which has propped up Afghanistan's flawed democracy for years.
"Whatever the Taliban claims, they are not winning hearts and minds. Nobody wants them back, including people who are unhappy with the current government," Miakhel said. "Even in the worst-case scenario, if the war continues with zero foreign troops or support, we will face difficult days, but they cannot gain the upper hand." The Taliban ruled most of the country from 1996 to 2001.
Other officials said the government of President Ashraf Ghani has long become accustomed to mercurial outbursts by Trump and does not take them as seriously as it once did. Some suggested that the U.S. leader might change his mind again or be talked out of the early troop departure, which is widely seen here as motivated by domestic campaign concerns ahead of the Nov. 3 election.
"This is a big blow, and it has dampened the national mood, but Afghans have already lost trust in the Americans. After November 3, there could be another tweet," said one senior national security aide, speaking on the condition of anonymity to be candid. "The Taliban would be happy if Trump is reelected, but they, too, know that another tweet could change everything, and that even if the American troops leave, other regional powers are watching."
Many Afghans were angered and disillusioned by the outcome of a U.S.-Taliban agreement signed in February after a year of negotiations. They felt the Trump administration had made too many concessions in its haste to clinch the deal and jump-start peace talks between Afghan and Taliban leaders. The talks have made virtually no progress since opening a month ago in Qatar, where the Taliban has an office.
Now, critics here say, Trump's tweet has unexpectedly handed the Taliban the biggest concession of all, instantly undercutting months of effort by U.S. envoy Zalmay Khalilzad to tie gradual U.S. troop withdrawals to conditions, including pledges by the Taliban to reduce violence, attack no American forces and renounce links to al-Qaeda and other extremist groups.
In the months since the pact was signed, the insurgents have unleashed a wave of violence, killing thousands of civilians in bombings, assassinating high-profile leaders, and assaulting Afghan security forces. On Oct. 3, for example, a car bombing at a government center in eastern Nangahar province killed 14 civilians and wounded 40.
"The U.S. agreement did no good for the country except to start the talks that have been stalled for a month now," Zia said. "It did not reduce the fighting, and it was all in the Taliban's favor."
The U.S. military presence in Afghanistan today is minuscule compared with a decade ago, when a "surge" ordered by President Barack Obama eventually led to more than 100,000 American troops on the ground. But the psychological boost of U.S. commitment and the leveraging of Afghan combat strength through U.S. airstrikes have been crucial in maintaining the Afghan military's morale.
"If the United States leaves now, the Taliban will storm Kabul and do to President Ghani what they did to Najib," said Zakiullah Amini, 21, a grocery stall owner, referring to former president Najibullah, who was tortured and lynched by Taliban forces when they entered the capital on Sept. 27, 1996.
"The Taliban know that if foreigners leave they can overthrow the government," Amini said. "Why bother to negotiate?"

4. Time to be honest about Japan's defense deficiency
Conclusion:
So when Kishi comes to Washington, tell him clearly what America needs most from Japan: A JSDF that can fight, and fight alongside the Americans. And to move forward on both counts, make the Joint Task Force a reality.
He will understand.
But if Kishi's visit ends with both nations just announcing that everything is fine and even getting better, you'll know neither is true.

Time to be honest about Japan's defense deficiency

US needs to tell Defense Minister Nubuo Kishi what it really means and needs at his upcoming trip to Washington
asiatimes.com · by Grant Newsham · October 13, 2020
Japans' new defense minister, Nobuo Kishi, reportedly will visit Washington in October. The typical first visit is a get-to-know-you affair where both sides smile and declare "steady as she goes," and "the alliance has never been stronger."
The Japanese government holds its breath, hoping the US doesn't ask for anything difficult, which means anything more than Japan is already doing or planning to do.
The US alliance managers tread carefully so as not to upset the Japanese. For both sides, a smooth visit is a successful visit. More substantial and potentially contentious matters can always be put off for later.
Meanwhile, the People's Republic of China is launching ships at a prodigious clip, building its air force, and figuring out how to use it all to defeat China's enemies - a category that includes Japan and the US.
Press reports indicate that the recently canceled Aegis Ashore missile defense project will be a main topic of discussion.
Aegis Ashore is important - as is an integrated air and missile defense for both Japan and the US. But if by magic Aegis Ashore were resolved immediately, it would not solve Japan's defense shortcomings.
A suggestion: The US should consider what it most needs from Japan, defense-wise - and ask for it while Kishi is in town. (I wrote recently about how important it is to tell a Japanese prime minister directly what it is the US really and truly needs. The same advice goes when you're dealing with a defense minister.)
What does the US need? A more capable Japan Self Defense Force (JSDF) that can fight alongside US forces and vice versa.
US and Japanese troops during a joint military exercise in a file photo. Image: Facebook
As for the more capable JSDF, it's not considered polite to say the following, but with the People's Liberation Army breathing down Japanese and American necks, here goes:
The Japanese military is not built or configured for or capable of fighting an actual war against a serious opponent. And the Chinese are a serious opponent.
Really? Just ask JSDF leadership about the following:
  • Joint operations and communications
  • Logistics
  • Timelines and sequences for mobilization
  • War stocks (extra ammunition and materiel)
  • Manpower and recruitment shortfalls
  • Casualty replacements
  • Realistic war-fighting training and exercises
And this only scratches the surface.
One almost despairs. The problem isn't the quality of JSDF personnel. Rather, Japan's civilian leadership gets most of the blame. No need to mention this to Defense Minister Kishi. He probably already knows.
As for US forces and JSDF being able to operate together, a senior American officer recently claimed US and Japanese forces were nearing interoperability. That may be true for the US Navy and Japan Maritime Self Defense Force with some more effort. But otherwise, it is hardly the case.
One experienced observer vowed to believe that "nearing interoperability" is in reality "when MSDF and USN ships are holding the same common operating picture as the GSDF (Ground Self Defense Force) battalion commander on Miyako Jima with cruise missiles." And the US Air Force and the JASDF, not to mention US Marines and Army, also have to be part of the "common operating picture" as well.
Improving JSDF capability will not be easy. But sometimes a bite-sized approach to reforming a larger organization can work.
Here's an idea to run by Defense Minister Kishi: Create immediately a standing permanent Japan-US Joint Task Force to defend the East China Sea as well as Japan's southern islands including the Senkakus and surrounding areas.
A good way to learn about warfighting is for JSDF commanders and personnel to work alongside US forces to defend Japanese territory from an imminent threat.
As part of the curriculum, Japanese and Americans will need to allocate forces, develop joint contingency plans and hold regular and realistic training, simulations and warfighting labs. And conduct actual operations.
This would build joint capability between the JSDF and US forces. And it also can further professionalize a chunk of the JSDF that wants to master its profession and learn real warfighting while going where the action is.
In the process, parts of the GSDF, ASDF, and MSDF will be forced to cooperate with each other. And maybe the jointness bug might infect the larger JSDF.
"Not only would such a standing combined US-JSDF task force HQ allow relationships to develop and to function better in a crisis, but just the mere establishment would serve as a deterrent to Chinese adventurism," a former senior US defense official commented to this writer.
So maybe US alliance managers can ask Defense Minister Kishi for this and sweeten the deal by telling him the US doesn't want more money from Japan. Instead, an ally that can pull its own weight and fight alongside American forces will do nicely.
Newly appointed Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi delivers a speech during a press conference at the prime minister's office in Tokyo on September 16. Photo: AFP / Charly Triballeau
Kishi should understand. He didn't get the defense minister position just because he is former Prime Minster Abe's brother. Rather he's been studying defense matters for years, and has visited the US a number of times and met with US officers and officials.
Some officers who have met him note that he doesn't reckon he knows everything - unlike many senior officials, American and Japanese.
There is also evidence that he thinks well beyond the amateurish approach to Japan's defense of buying this or that piece of expensive hardware and counting on the Americans to fill in the gaps.
Kishi is said to grasp how Japan fits into regional geostrategy. Case in point: He recognizes Taiwan's importance to Japan's defense. If the PRC dominates Taiwan, Japan is in a serious fix as the PLA has then broken the first-island chain and sits astride Japan's key shipping lanes.
America will be on its heels at that point, and not even nuclear weapons will save Japan. You'd think every Japanese defense minster would understand this. They don't.
So when Kishi comes to Washington, tell him clearly what America needs most from Japan: A JSDF that can fight, and fight alongside the Americans. And to move forward on both counts, make the Joint Task Force a reality.
He will understand.
But if Kishi's visit ends with both nations just announcing that everything is fine and even getting better, you'll know neither is true.
Grant Newsham, a retired US Marine Corps officer and former US diplomat, currently is a senior research fellow at the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies and the Center for Security Policy.
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5.  India and U.S. have been too cautious on China, says U.S. official

Suhasini Haidar NEW DELHI , OCTOBER 12, 2020 22:46 IST
UPDATED: OCTOBER 12, 2020 22:13 IST
The Hindu

Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun called for a fundamental alignment along shared security, geopolitical goals

India and the United States have been "too cautious", when it comes to China's concerns about their strategic ties, said a senior U.S. official, who called China the "Elephant in the room" during bilateral talks.
Speaking at a think-tank event during his visit to Delhi, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun said the Washington respects India's tradition of "Strategic Autonomy", and did not seek to pull it into a security alliance, but hoped to build a partnership in the region through the Quad (Australia-India-Japan-U.S. Quadrilateral dialogue), which he dubbed "Pax Indo-Pacifica".
"We have seen the conditions emerge for an organic and deeper partnership [between India and the U.S.] - not an alliance on the postwar model, but a fundamental alignment along shared security and geopolitical goals, shared interests, and shared values," Mr. Biegun said at an "India-U.S. Forum" event in Delhi, where he shared a session with Foreign Secretary Harsh Shringla.
Mr. Biegun arrived in Delhi for a two-day visit to prepare for the upcoming "2+2" talks between U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and U.S. Defense Secretary with External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh.
Mr. Biegun said the talks will be held "later this year", although sources indicated that the 2+2 is scheduled for October 26-27.
The arrival of senior U.S. officials including Mr. Biegun less than a month before the US presidential elections is unusual, especially given curtailed travel during the coronavirus pandemic, and the fact that Mr. Jaishankar and Mr. Pompeo just met for the Quad ministerial dialogue in Tokyo last week. However, the sources suggested that an exception for the U.S. is indicative of the close personal ties shared between the Trump administration and the Modi government. .
The ongoing standoff between Indian and Chinese troops at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) is also likely to be a factor in strengthening bilateral arrangements and well as coordination in the Indo-Pacific region at this time.
"As we advance in this direction [of the stronger partnership], there is an elephant in the room: China," Mr. Biegun said, making a specific reference to comments made by former diplomat Ashok Kantha in a recent interview to The Hindu about the need to be less "cautious" about developing the Quad and strategic linkages with the U.S.
"I could not agree more with Ambassador Kantha. We have been too cautious. Last week's important and successful Quad ministerial leaves the United States confident that perhaps, just maybe, we can say that we are present at the creation of those strategic linkages," Mr. Biegun added.
During the 2+2 meeting, India and the US are expected to discuss further cooperating on their Indo-Pacific strategy, talks on the fourth and last foundational agreement Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) for geospatial cooperation, as well as a number of defence deals including for armed drones and maritime patrol aircraft from the U.S.
Reacting to the Tokyo meeting and to Mr. Pompeo's remarks that called for the Quad members to "collaborate" to counter China's aggression at the LAC and the South China Sea, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs had called the Quad a "closed and exclusive clique".
In a direct response, Mr. Biegun said the U.S. position was that the Quad did not carry "binding obligations", and any country seeking a "free and open Indo-Pacific" would be welcome to join.
"I should also be clear that the security partnerships the United States and our partners explore today do not necessarily need to follow the model of the last century of mutual defence treaties with a heavy in-country U.S. troop presence," Mr. Biegun added.

6. A World of Geopolitical Opportunity

A positive current assessment with guidance to both Trump and Biden.

Conclusion: The next administration should cultivate the sources of U.S. strength. Whoever holds the White House will have the chance to reshape and renew American alliances as the shift of U.S. strategic interest to the Indo-Pacific gains momentum. For Mr. Trump the danger is that he will be unable to shift from disruption to building in a second term. For Joe Biden the risk is that the new team will be too focused on restoring the pre-Trump status quo to seize the historic opportunities before it.

A World of Geopolitical Opportunity

America's global position is stronger today than in 2016 in some important ways.

WSJ · by Walter Russell Mead
By

Walter Russell Mead

Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Moscow, June 5, 2019.

Photo: Alexander Zemlianichenko/Associated Press
As pandemic and polarization sweep the country, the U.S. has fallen into one of its periodic episodes of self-flagellation and existential doubt. That is not a bad thing. Constant self-examination and a refusal to settle for the status quo are part of the dynamic culture that makes America work. Whether we have a Biden administration or a Trump second term, however, U.S. policy makers need to look past the angst and despair.
In some ways, America's global position is stronger than in 2016. This is not an endorsement of President Trump's foreign policy. As is often the case in U.S. history, our opportunities have less to do with anything our diplomatic establishment has or has not done than with the intersection of the dynamism of American society and the advantages of the U.S. geographical position.
America's dynamism made and keeps us a superpower. Today, two made-in-the-U.S. industries are quietly but continually renewing American power. The first is tech. Even as China scrambles to catch up, U.S. tech wizards (with talented immigrants thankfully among them), continue to lead the way. There are problems with the Silicon Valley ecosystem and justified concerns about whether tech giants are limiting and suppressing competition. But the unique American mix of technical genius, marketing and management savvy along with a sophisticated financial network continues to support the entrepreneurs who are changing the world.
That is good news not only for the civilian economy. Increasingly, information and communication are the foundations of military power. As long as U.S. companies and scientists remain on the cutting edge of key technologies, American defense planners start any conflict with advantages that others can only envy.
The second industry is fracking. Even as it struggles to stay afloat in the world of low fuel prices it has done so much to create, U.S. fracking is upending global energy markets. This revolution is depriving American rivals like Russia and Iran of vital funds, facilitating a transition to a low-emissions future, and creating well-paid blue-collar jobs across the U.S. Best of all, America's new natural-gas riches reduce the danger that crises in the Middle East will produce energy price spikes that derail the global economy, allowing future presidents more flexibility when engaging the region without compromising core U.S. interests.
Meanwhile, geography still works for America. Sea powers enjoy substantial advantages in strategic competition with continental powers like China. From the time of King Louis XIV through the Cold War, first the British and then the Americans found allies whose independence was threatened by the ambitions of the great land powers of their day. Every step that a newly assertive Beijing takes to advance its claims to regional hegemony in Asia drives neighbors like India, Australia, Japan and Vietnam closer to the U.S. With America, these countries can cooperate to secure their independence and ultimately persuade China to settle for a less dominant regional role. Without our help, their chances are much worse, a reality that gives U.S. presidents some important cards to play.
Meanwhile, the current leadership in both Beijing and Moscow seems locked into a course that-despite Europeans' frequently expressed and deeply felt anger at the Trump administration-drives Europe back to America's embrace. Whether it is Russia supporting Alexander Lukashenko in Belarus, or China's shocking policies in Xinjiang and Hong Kong, both of the Eurasian great powers are widening the values chasm that divides them from the West.
Beyond that, Beijing's economic ambitions target key European economic sectors like Germany's thriving automobile and machine-tool industries. And China's record on trade protection and intellectual-property theft angers Europeans as much as it does Americans. Six months ago, Huawei's place in the critical European telecom market looked secure. No more.
As Center for a New American Security CEO Richard Fontaine, no fan of the current administration, wrote recently in Foreign Affairs, Mr. Trump's unilateralism and questioning of core international institutions like the North Atlantic Treaty Organization did not just spread disorder. They also created new leverage for America. Allies now realize that U.S. support cannot be taken for granted and that international agreements must appeal broadly to American public opinion to survive.
The next administration should cultivate the sources of U.S. strength. Whoever holds the White House will have the chance to reshape and renew American alliances as the shift of U.S. strategic interest to the Indo-Pacific gains momentum. For Mr. Trump the danger is that he will be unable to shift from disruption to building in a second term. For Joe Biden the risk is that the new team will be too focused on restoring the pre-Trump status quo to seize the historic opportunities before it.
Copyright ©2020 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8
Appeared in the October 13, 2020, print edition.
WSJ · by Walter Russell Mead
7. Threat from nuclear weapons and missiles has grown since Trump entered office
Excerpts:
"What I have trouble doing is saying that it's Trump's fault, that somehow the Obama administration or a Biden administration would do it better," Morrison said. "I think the problem is this era that we're in - it's an incredibly complicated era."
Trump's critics, however, counter that his brash and undisciplined approach to foreign policy has squandered diplomatic opportunities, undermined work with allies and contributed to global instability.

Threat from nuclear weapons and missiles has grown since Trump entered office

By  Paul Sonne
Oct. 12, 2020 at 8:15 p.m. EDT
The Washington Post · October 13, 2020
North Korea's new road-mobile intercontinental ballistic missile, paraded through the streets of Pyongyang this past weekend, has underscored a worrying reality: The global threat from nuclear weapons and menacing missiles has grown since President Trump entered office, despite his administration's fitful efforts to control them.
The unveiling of the untested weapon - which appeared to be a larger version of a North Korean missile that can reach the United States - came less than a week after Russia test launched an anti-ship hypersonic cruise missile on President Vladimir Putin's birthday and a month and a half after China test fired its "carrier killer" and "Guam killer" ballistic missiles into the disputed South China Sea.
The situation presents a broader challenge to the United States. The administration has heralded an era of "great power competition" with China and Russia, resulting in a competitive buildup that arms-control advocates warn is risking a full-blown arms race.
Russia is developing nuclear-armed underwater drones, nuclear-powered cruise missiles and other destabilizing weapons designed to penetrate U.S. missile defenses. China is ramping up its missile force and building out its nuclear capabilities with new nuclear submarines. And the United States is modernizing its own arsenal, while adding low-yield nuclear warheads to submarines and enhancing missile defenses. All the while, Iran and North Korea are advancing as threats.
The result is an escalatory cycle that experts say is threatening decades of progress controlling the world's most dangerous weapons. A recent report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies warned that the decline of U.S. global influence and the rise of regional security tensions, coupled with the staying power of authoritarian leaders, will incentivize more nations to pursue nuclear weapons and limit Washington's ability to respond.
The issue looms over the final days of the U.S. presidential campaign, as North Korea demonstrates that, despite Trump's efforts, Kim Jong Un's regime is busy enhancing its nuclear missile arsenal. Trump is also rushing to conclude a last-minute arms control deal with Russia, hoping to secure an agreement he can tout as a diplomatic win before the Nov. 3 presidential election.
Trump's interest in arms control dates to at least the 1980s, when he sought unsuccessfully to engage in nuclear talks with the Soviets on behalf of the Reagan administration. On the campaign trail in 2016, Trump described nuclear weapons as the world's biggest problem and has called the issue more important than climate change.
But after nearly four years in office, he hasn't signed any significant new treaties to regulate the world's most devastating weapons and has populated his administration at times with arms-control skeptics, such as John Bolton, the former national security adviser.
"You have the U.S. leaving arms agreements with the Russians, failing to open any kind of meaningful talks with the Chinese, really just succeeding in antagonizing the Iranians and the North Koreans and looking the other way while allies like the Saudis acquire some interesting capabilities," said Jeffrey Lewis, an arms-control advocate who serves as director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, describing the situation as "bad."
Trends were already moving in a worrisome direction before Trump took office, and any administration would struggle to strike substantive new arms control deals in the current environment, said Vipin Narang, associate professor of political science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. But Trump has exacerbated the challenges, he argued.
China and Russia are becoming more aggressive in their own neighborhoods; nuclear-armed India and Pakistan are clashing over disputed territory; and the Trump administration is alienating allies in Europe, Narang said. The U.S. killing of Iranian Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani in a drone strike in Iraq, he said, has only increased the rationale for Iran and North Korea to pursue nuclear programs to safeguard their regimes.
"It's not just we are building and modernizing our nuclear weapons program; we are doing it at a time when states are seeking riskier behavior with each other also," Narang said.
Trump's administration has overseen an arms control rollback that has unnerved antinuclear advocates but cheered hawks who say Washington shouldn't stay in problematic agreements just because prior presidents signed them. Trump pulled out of the 2015 nuclear accord that the Obama administration negotiated with Iran, citing flaws with the pact and malign activities by Tehran outside the agreement, and withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty with Russia and the Treaty on Open Skies, citing violations by Moscow.
Tim Morrison, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute who served as the National Security Council's senior director for counterproliferation and biodefense under Trump, said the increasing threat shouldn't be blamed on the president.
"What I have trouble doing is saying that it's Trump's fault, that somehow the Obama administration or a Biden administration would do it better," Morrison said. "I think the problem is this era that we're in - it's an incredibly complicated era."
Trump's critics, however, counter that his brash and undisciplined approach to foreign policy has squandered diplomatic opportunities, undermined work with allies and contributed to global instability.
"It's not just that the U.S. is not playing a leadership role, which it's definitely not, but it's not providing any of the functions that it used to provide," Lewis said. "Everyone is on their own, and there are no rules, and there is no predictability, so I do think things can get a little crazy."

An array of new weapons

Perhaps Trump's biggest achievement in the arms-control space has been to broker an informal agreement with Kim to pause North Korea's tests of intercontinental ballistic missiles and nuclear warheads in exchange for a U.S. suspension of military exercises with South Korea. The moratorium reduced tension that flared between Washington and Pyongyang in 2017.
But Kim has continued to advance his nuclear weapons and missile programs in the meantime, according to a U.N. Panel of Experts report and U.S. officialsconducting a ballistic missile test from a submarine last year and more recently threatening to resume the long-range-missile and nuclear tests he agreed to halt.
On Saturday, North Korea underscored the advancing threat its nuclear program poses by unveiling an ICBM on an 11-axle truck. The missile, which hasn't been tested, appeared to be the nation's biggest and most powerful to date, according to analysts, some of whom described it as a larger derivative of the Hwasong-15 tested in late 2017. The larger size suggests North Korea is working on advancing its arsenal by affixing several warheads to one missile.
In the Middle East, Iran has ramped up production of enriched uranium since the Trump administration pulled out of the 2015 nuclear deal, according to the U.N. nuclear watchdog. The country's regional archrival, Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, has been working with the Chinese to build production capacity for nuclear fuel, according to a report in the New York Times, and has moved to expand its missile capabilities, raising concerns about the kingdom's nuclear ambitions.
In Russia, Putin unveiled new weapons in 2018 that are designed to penetrate American missile defenses, including the nuclear-armed Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle and the nuclear-armed undersea Poseidon drone. Development of a nuclear-powered cruise missile, known as the Burevestnik or Skyfall, led to an accident that killed five people last year in Russia's far north, according to U.S. officials. Washington explored similar technology during the Cold War but deemed it too dangerous.
Putin has said some of the new weapons Russia is developing would fall under the New START agreement if Washington and Moscow agree to prolong the 2010 pact, which expires in early February but includes a five-year extension option. In his platform, Democratic nominee Joe Biden has said that if elected president, he would extend the treaty; Putin has also expressed a willingness to do so.
But the Trump administration wants a broader treaty. According to U.S. officials, the administration is discussing a one- or two-year extension of New START with Russia, pending the negotiation of a new pact. The deal would also freeze both countries' nuclear stockpiles in the meantime, a detail first reported by the Wall Street Journal.
The Trump administration previously has demanded Russia put all its nuclear weapons up for negotiation and include China in the framework for a follow-on treaty. If the talks falls apart, Washington and Moscow would have no substantive restraints on their arsenals for the first time since the Cold War.
China, which has refused to take part in the talks, is pursuing a full nuclear triad that can launch nuclear warheads from air, land and sea - and is developing its own stealth strategic bomber. The Pentagon predicts that Beijing's arsenal will double from about 200 to 400 warheads over the next decade. The United States and Russia each have more than 5,000, according to the Federation of American Scientists.
Still, the Chinese military's advancements have raised questions about whether the nation, which has long said it will use a nuclear weapon only after being hit by one, is moving away from that "second strike" doctrine.
Beijing has also developed a formidable missile force that has checked U.S. power in Asia, including the nuclear-capable ­DF-26 ballistic missile, sometimes called the "Guam killer" because it can reach U.S. military facilities on the island, and the DF-21D, an intermediate-range ballistic missile that has been dubbed the "carrier killer" because it can threaten U.S. aircraft carriers. It is also developing hypersonic glide vehicles that can move more than five times the speed of sound.

U.S. modernization plans

The buildups by Moscow and Beijing come as the United States modernizes its nuclear arsenal, with the Pentagon planning to introduce a new nuclear bomber, submarine, intercontinental ballistic missile system and air-launch cruise missile in the coming years. The 30-year effort, when including the sustainment of the current nuclear force, is projected to cost more than $1 trillion.
The Trump administration earlier this year deployed a new low-yield nuclear warhead for Trident ballistic missiles on submarines and is starting work on a new nuclear cruise missile for submarines as well. It's also in the early stages of developing a nuclear warhead known as the W93. The Pentagon is working on a range of hypersonic weapons to keep pace with China, though it says they are conventional rather than nuclear.
The developments have led to growing concerns about a nascent arms race. Trump's recent comments to journalist Bob Woodward about a secret, unidentified nuclear weapons system heightened those fears.
The United States has continued investments in missile defense - which the Russians have said prompted their investments in exotic weapons.
Despite the tension, it's important to put the current state of affairs in broader context, said Rose Gottemoeller, a fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution, who served as deputy secretary general of NATO and one of the Obama administration's top arms-control negotiators.
In the late 1960s, Gottemoeller said, the United States had more than 30,000 nuclear weapons, and the Soviet Union by some accounts had at least 40,000 - far more than today. She said that the Trump administration is right to sound the alarm about Russia's new systems and China's expanded nuclear and missile forces, but that people shouldn't overreact.
"There is no need to panic," Gottemoeller said.
The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty - a Cold War-era pact whereby nuclear nations pledged to reduce their arsenals in exchange for nonnuclear nations not pursuing nuclear weapons - could be strained if New START falls apart, Gottemoeller warned, and there is no follow-on agreement between the United States and Russia to limit strategic arms. But she said she expects Washington and Moscow to come to an agreement.
The other big issue that must be addressed, Gottemoeller said, is the rapid advance and proliferation of missile technology around the globe, which is giving more countries access to very fast and highly accurate missiles.
"At the end of the day, I think the likelihood of nuclear use has gone up since President Trump took office," said James Acton, co-director of the nuclear policy program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who said Trump has built up leverage on countries such as North Korea but hasn't been able to use it. "I think the trend lines are bad and moving us further in that direction."
8. The Nuclearization of American Diplomacy
It is a complex world.

The Nuclearization of American Diplomacy

We are finding ourselves in an ever more dangerous and insecure world, with the risk of Armageddon lurking just around the corner.
The Nation · by Michael T. Klare · October 13, 2020
EDITOR'S NOTE: This article originally appeared at TomDispatch.com. To stay on top of important articles like these, sign up to receive the latest updates from TomDispatch.
On August 21st, six nuclear-capable B-52H Stratofortress bombers, representing approximately one-seventh of the war-ready US B-52H bomber fleet, flew from their home base in North Dakota to Fairford Air Base in England for several weeks of intensive operations over Europe. Although the actual weapons load of those giant bombers was kept secret, each of them is capable of carrying eight AGM-86B nuclear-armed, air-launched cruise missiles (ALCMs) in its bomb bay. Those six planes, in other words, could have been carrying 48 city-busting thermonuclear warheads. (The B-52H can also carry 12 ALCMs on external pylons, but none were visible on this occasion.) With such a load alone, in other words, those six planes possessed the capacity to incinerate much of western Russia, including Moscow and St. Petersburg.
The B-52 Stratofortress is no ordinary warplane. First flown in 1952, it was designed with a single purpose in mind: to cross the Atlantic or Pacific Ocean and drop dozens of nuclear bombs on the Soviet Union. Some models were later modified to deliver tons of conventional bombs on targets in North Vietnam and other hostile states, but the remaining B-52s are still largely configured for intercontinental nuclear strikes. With only 44 of them now thought to be in active service at any time, those six dispatched to the edge of Russian territory represented a significant commitment of American nuclear war-making capability.
What in god's name were they doing there? According to American officials, they were intended to demonstrate this country's ability to project overwhelming power anywhere on the planet at any time and so remind our NATO allies of Washington's commitment to their defense. "Our ability to quickly respond and assure allies and partners rests upon the fact that we are able to deploy our B-52s at a moment's notice," commented Gen. Jeff Harrigian, commander of US Air Forces in Europe. "Their presence here helps build trust with our NATO allies...and affords us new opportunities to train together through a variety of scenarios."
While Harrigian didn't spell out just what scenarios he had in mind, the bombers' European operations suggest that their role involved brandishing a nuclear "stick" in support of an increasingly hostile stance toward Russia. During their sojourn in Europe, for example, two of them flew over the Baltic Sea close to Kaliningrad, a Russian enclave sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania that houses several key military installations. That September 25th foray coincided with a US troop buildup in Lithuania about 65 miles from election-embattled Belarus, a Russian neighbor.
Since August 9th, when strongman Alexander Lukashenko declared victory in a presidential election widely considered fraudulent by his people and much of the international community, Belarus has experienced recurring anti-government protests. Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that his country might intervene there if the situation "gets out of control," while Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has implicitly warned of US intervention if Russia interferes. "We stand by our long-term commitment to support Belarus' sovereignty and territorial integrity as well as the aspiration of the Belarusian people to choose their leader and to choose their own path, free from external intervention," he insisted on August 20th. The flight of those B-52s near Belarus can, then, be reasonably interpreted as adding a nuclear dimension to Pompeo's threat.
In another bomber deployment with no less worrisome implications, on September 4th, three B-52s, accompanied by Ukrainian fighter planes, flew over the Black Sea near the coast of Russian-held Crimea. Like other B-52 sorties near its airspace, that foray prompted the rapid scrambling of Russian interceptor aircraft, which often fly threateningly close to American planes.
At a moment when tensions were mounting between the US-backed Ukrainian government and Russian-backed rebel areas in the eastern part of the country, the deployment of those bombers off Crimea was widely viewed as yet another nuclear-tinged threat to Moscow. As Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), tweeted, "Extraordinary decision to send a nuclear bomber so close to contested and tense areas. This is a real in-your-face statement."
And provocative as they were, those were hardly the only forays by US nuclear bombers in recent months. B-52s also ventured near Russian air space in the Arctic and within range of Russian forces in Syria. Meanwhile other B-52s, as well as nuclear-capable B-1 and B-2 bombers, have flown similar missions near Chinese positions in the South China Sea and the waters around the disputed island of Taiwan. Never since the Cold War ended with the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 have so many US nuclear bombers been engaged in "show-of-force" operations of this sort.
"Demonstrating Resolve" and Coercing Adversaries
States have long engaged in military operations to intimidate other powers. Once upon a distant time, this would have been called "gunboat diplomacy" and naval vessels would have been the instruments of choice for such missions. The arrival of nuclear arms made such operations far more dangerous. This didn't, however, stop the United States from using weaponry of this sort as tools of intimidation throughout the Cold War. In time, however, even nuclear strategists began condemning acts of "nuclear coercion," arguing that such weaponry was inappropriate for any purpose other than "deterrence"-that is, using the threat of "massive retaliation" to prevent another country from attacking you. In fact, a deterrence-only posture eventually became Washington's official policy, even if the temptation to employ nukes as political cudgels never entirely disappeared from its strategic thinking.
At a more hopeful time, President Barack Obama sought to downsize this country's nuclear arsenal and prevent the use of such weapons for anything beyond deterrence (although his administration also commenced an expensive "modernization" of that arsenal). In his widely applauded Nobel Peace Prize speech of April 5, 2009, Obama swore to "put an end to Cold War thinking" and "reduce the role of nuclear weapons in our national security strategy." Unfortunately, Donald Trump has sought to move the dial in the opposite direction, including increasing the use of nukes as coercive instruments.
The president's deep desire to bolster the role of nuclear weapons in national security was first spelled out in his administration's Nuclear Posture Review of February 2018. In addition to calling for the accelerated modernization of the nuclear arsenal, it also endorsed the use of such weapons to demonstrate American "resolve"-in other words, a willingness to go to the nuclear brink over political differences. A large and diverse arsenal was desirable, the document noted, to "demonstrate resolve through the positioning of forces, messaging, and flexible response options." Nuclear bombers were said to be especially useful for such a purpose: "Flights abroad," it stated, "display U.S. capabilities and resolve, providing effective signaling for deterrence and assurance, including in times of tension."
Ever since, the Trump administration has been deploying the country's nuclear bomber fleet of B-52s, B-1s, and B-2s with increasing frequency to "display U.S. capabilities and resolve," particularly with respect to Russia and China.
The supersonic B-1B Lancer, developed in the 1970s, was originally meant to replace the B-52 as the nation's premier long-range nuclear bomber. After the Cold War ended, however, it was converted to carry conventional munitions and is no longer officially designated as a nuclear delivery system-though it could be reconfigured for this purpose at any time. The B-2 Spirit, with its distinctive flying-wing design, was the first US bomber built with "stealth" capabilities (meant to avoid detection by enemy radar systems) and is configured to carry both nuclear and conventional weaponry. For the past year or so, those two planes plus the long-lived B-52 have been used on an almost weekly basis as the radioactive "stick" of US diplomacy around the world.
Nuclear Forays in the Arctic and the Russian Far East
When flying to Europe in August, those six B-52s from North Dakota's Minot Air Force Base took a roundabout route north of Greenland (which President Trump had unsuccessfully offered to purchase in 2019). They finally descended over the Barents Sea within easy missile-firing range of Russia's vast naval complex at Murmansk, the home for most of its ballistic missile submarines. For Hans Kristensen of FAS, that was another obvious and "pointed message at Russia."
Strategically speaking, Washington had largely ignored the Arctic until a combination of factors-global warming, accelerated oil and gas drilling in the region, and increased Russian and Chinese military activities there-sparked growing interest. As global temperatures have risen, the Arctic ice cap has been melting at an ever-faster pace, allowing energy firms to exploit the region's extensive hydrocarbon resources. This, in turn, has led to feverish efforts by the region's littoral states, led by Russia, to lay claim to such resources and build up their military capabilities there.
In light of these developments, the Trump administration, led by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, has called for an expansion of this country's Arctic military forces. In a speech delivered at the Arctic Council in Rovaniemi, Finland, in May 2019, Pompeo warned of Russia's growing military stance in the region and pledged a strong American response to it. "Under President Trump," he declared. "We are fortifying America's security and diplomatic presence in the area."
In line with this, the Pentagon has deployed US warships to the Arctic on a regular basis, while engaging in ever more elaborate military exercises there. These have included Cold Response 2020, conducted this spring in Norway's far north within a few hundred miles of those key Russian bases at Murmansk. For the most part, however, the administration has relied on nuclear-bomber forays to demonstrate its opposition to an increasing Russian role there. In November 2019, for example, three B-52s, accompanied by Norwegian F-16 fighter jets, approached the Russian naval complex at Murmansk, a move meant to demonstrate the Pentagon's capacity to launch nuclear-armed missiles at one of that country's most critical military installations.
If the majority of such nuclear forays have occurred near Norway's far north, the Pentagon has not neglected Russia's far eastern territory, home of its Pacific Fleet, either. In an unusually brazen maneuver, this May a B-1B bomber flew over the Sea of Okhotsk, an offshoot of the Pacific Ocean surrounded by Russian territory on three sides (Siberia to the north, Sakhalin Island to the west, and the Kamchatka Peninsula to the east).
As if to add insult to injury, the Air Force dispatched two B-52H bombers over the Sea of Okhotsk in June-another first for an aircraft of that type. Needless to say, incursions in such a militarily sensitive area led to the rapid scrambling of Russian fighter aircraft.
The South China Sea and Taiwan
A similar, equally provocative pattern can be observed in the East and South China Seas. Even as President Trump has sought, largely unsuccessfully, to negotiate a trade deal with Beijing, his administration has become increasingly antagonistic towards the Chinese leadership. On July 23rd, Secretary of State Pompeo delivered a particularly hostile speech in the presidential library of Richard Nixon, the very commander-in-chief who first reopened relations with communist China. Pompeo called on American allies to suspend normal relations with Beijing and, like Washington, treat it as a hostile power, much the way the Soviet Union was viewed during the Cold War.
While administration rhetoric amped up, the Department of Defense has been bolstering its capacity to engage and defeat Beijing in any future conflict. In its 2018 National Defense Strategy, as the US military's "forever wars" dragged on, the Pentagon suddenly labeled China and Russia the two greatest threats to American security. More recently, it singled out China alone as the overarching menace to American national security. "In this era of great-power competition," Secretary of Defense Mark Esper declared this September, "the Department of Defense has prioritized China, then Russia, as our top strategic competitors."
The Pentagon's efforts have largely been focused on the South China Sea, where China has established a network of small military installations on artificial islands created by dredging sand from the sea-bottom near some of the reefs and atolls it claims. American leaders have never accepted the legitimacy of this island-building project and have repeatedly called upon Beijing to dismantle the bases. Such efforts have, however, largely fallen on deaf ears and it's now evident that the Pentagon is considering military means to eliminate the island threat.
In early July, the US Navy conducted its most elaborate maneuvers to date in those waters, deploying two aircraft carriers there-the USS Nimitz and the USS Ronald Reagan -plus an escort fleet of cruisers, destroyers, and submarines. While there, the two carriers launched hundreds of combat planes in simulated attacks on military bases on the islands the Chinese had essentially built.
At the same time, paratroopers from the Army's 25th Infantry Division were flown from their home base in Alaska to the Pacific island of Guam in what was clearly meant as a simulated air assault on a (presumably Chinese) military installation. And just to make sure the leadership in Beijing understood that, in any actual encounter with US forces, Chinese resistance would be countered by the maximum level of force deemed necessary, the Pentagon also flew a B-52 bomber over those carriers as they engaged in their provocative maneuvers.
And that was hardly the first visit of a nuclear bomber to the South China Sea. The Pentagon has, in fact, been deploying such planes there on a regular basis since the beginning of 2020. In April, for example, the Air Force dispatched two B-1B Lancers on a 32-hour round-trip from their home at Ellsworth Air Force Base, North Dakota, to that sea and back as a demonstration of its ability to project power even in the midst of the pandemic President Trump likes to call "the Chinese plague."
Meanwhile, tensions have grown over the status of the island of Taiwan, which China views as a breakaway part of the country. Beijing has been pressuring its leaders to forswear any moves toward independence, while the Trump administration tacitly endorses just such a future by doing the previously unimaginable-notably, by sending high-level officials, Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar among them, on visits to the island and by promising deliveries of increasingly sophisticated weapons. Meanwhile, the Pentagon has upped its military presence in that part of the Pacific, too. The Navy has repeatedly dispatched missile-armed destroyers on "freedom of navigation" missions through the Taiwan Strait, while other US warships have conducted elaborate military exercises in nearby waters.
Needless to say, such provocative steps have alarmed Beijing, which has responded by increasing the incursions of its military aircraft into airspace claimed by Taiwan. To make sure that Beijing fully appreciates the depth of American "resolve" to resist any attempt to seize Taiwan by force, the Pentagon has accompanied its other military moves around the island with-you guessed it-flights of B-52 bombers.
Playing with Fire
And where will all this end? As the United States sends nuclear-capable bombers on increasingly provocative flights ever closer to Russian and Chinese territory, the danger of an accident or mishap is bound to grow. Sooner or later, a fighter plane from one of those countries is going to get too close to an American bomber and a deadly incident will occur. And what will happen if a nuclear bomber, armed with advanced missiles and electronics (even conceivably nuclear weapons), is in some fashion downed? Count on one thing: In Donald Trump's America, the calls for devastating retaliation will be intense and a major conflagration cannot be ruled out.
Bluntly put, dispatching nuclear-capable B-52s on simulated bombing runs against Chinese and Russian military installations is simply nuts. Yes, it must scare the bejesus out of Chinese and Russian officials, but it will also prompt them to distrust any future peaceful overtures from American diplomats while further bolstering their own military power and defenses. Eventually, we will all find ourselves in an ever more dangerous and insecure world, with the risk of Armageddon lurking just around the corner.
The Nation · by Michael T. Klare · October 13, 2020

9. China warns Asian countries to be vigilant on U.S strategy
So China is taking a page from Sun Tzu: :What is of supreme importance is to attack the enemy's strategy."

China warns Asian countries to be vigilant on U.S strategy

ca.reuters.com · by Mei Mei Chu, Liz Lee
By Mei Mei ChuLiz Lee
3 Min Read
KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters) - The Chinese government's top diplomat, State Councillor Wang Yi, on Tuesday urged Asian countries to remain "vigilant" over the risk of U.S. strategy stoking geopolitical competition in the South China Sea and other parts of the region.
FILE PHOTO: China's State Councilor Wang Yi speaks at the Lanting Forum on "International Order and Global Governance in the Post-COVID-19 Era", following the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, in Beijing, China September 28, 2020. REUTERS/Thomas Peter
Beijing and members of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) should work together to remove "external disruption" in the South China Sea, Wang said during a joint news conference with Malaysia's foreign minister.
"We (China and Malaysia) are both of the view that the South China Sea should not be a ground for major power wrestling teeming with warships," said Wang, who is on a short Southeast Asian tour.
"China and ASEAN have full capacity and wisdom, as well as responsibility, to maintain peace and tranquillity in (the) South China Sea."
Malaysia's Foreign Minister Hishammuddin Hussein said maritime disputes should be resolved peacefully through regional dialogue.
China has in recent months held military exercises in disputed parts of the strategic waterway, while Washington has accused Beijing of attempting to build a "maritime empire" in the area.
Wang described Washington's "Indo-Pacific" strategy, which aims to cast the United States as a trustworthy partner in the region, as a "security risk" for East Asia.
"What it pursues is to trumpet the old-fashioned cold war mentality and start up confrontation among different groups and blocks, and stoke geopolitical competition," he said.
"I believe all parties sees this clearly and will stay vigilant against it."
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has previously said Washington wants a "free and open" Asia not dominated by any one country.
The Philippines' top military commander said the U.S.-China rivalry meant the situation at sea had become "very tense".
General Gilbert Gapay told foreign media in Manila that the United States had stepped up naval patrols and China's coastguard had been very active, while its maritime militia were "practically swarming most areas" of the Philippines' Exclusive Economic Zone.
During Tuesday's joint briefing, Malaysia's Hishammuddin said China had committed to purchase 1.7 million tonnes of palm oil until 2023 and pledged to encourage increased shipments of sustainably produced Malaysian palm oil.
Reporting by Mei Mei Chu and Liz Lee; Additional reporting by Karen Lema in Manila; Editing by Ed Davies, Martin Petty and Giles Elgood


10. National Guard cyber experts working to protect Washington state's election security

americanmilitarynews.com · by Abbie Shull - The News Tribune · October 12, 2020
As the 2020 election approaches, the 194th Wing of Washington's Air National Guard is preparing to safeguard the state's election systems.
For the last three years, the 194th Wing has had a special relationship with the Washington Secretary of State's office to protect Washington's election system from cyber threats.
Federal law prohibits military personnel under federal control and funding from conducting operations at polling places. But units under state control can be used to set up polling stations, provide physical security and conduct cybersecurity missions.
The 194th Wing of the Washington Air National Guard is a special warfare, intel and cyber wing made up of about 450 airmen. About half of the 194th wing does close air support with the Army, the other half does intelligence missions and cyber operations.
During the 2020 election, the airmen and women will monitor the election system to make sure there is no "cyber mischief," as Col. Ken Borchers says.
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Col. Ken Borchers is the commander of the 194th wing. Borchers said the unit's success comes down to the 200 airmen and women who bring special expertise to the group's cybersecurity missions.
"I had a colleague who used to say Washington is 'geographically blessed' because a lot of these folks also work at places like Microsoft, Google and Amazon," Borchers said. "So these men and women are able to bring their skills as cybersecurity experts to the National Guard."
Borchers explained their election monitoring involves analyzing the way data flow through the election system, monitoring firewalls, and testing the systems defense protocols.
Washington's National Guard has been especially busy this year. It's been called in for wildfires, civil unrest and the fight against COVID-19. Borchers said some of the same airmen working on cybersecurity were working in food banks across the state on top of their election security work and civilian jobs.
The 194th works with the Secretary of State's office in the week leading up to an election - its last mission was during the August primary election. It now is gearing up for the general election on Nov. 3.
Borchers said election security is less about fighting threats and more about testing vulnerabilities a potential threat might exploit.
"The Secretary of State's office has been a willing partner and said, "Hey, bring your best hackers and do your worst,"" Borchers said. "They're taking an avant-garde approach to cybersecurity in that they really want to test themselves to make sure the elections system is running as best as it can."
Secretary of State Kim Wyman said her office has its own cybersecurity experts, but the National Guard's team helps to test the work they do.
"They come in to do penetration testing, to see if our employees would fall for a phishing attempt and monitor the activity of our network," Wyman said. "They look at our vulnerabilities and give us ways to prevent access."
Wyman said threats to election security are unique because things are stacked in the hackers' favor.
"All they have to do is get something right once, but we have to get it right 100% of the time," said Wyman, a Republican. "Everything we do to counteract those threats is a positive step forward, but there is no finish line to this. It's an ongoing battle."
According to Borchers, that means everything comes down to the creativity of the Guard members working on the project. He said that unlike traditional warfare, they can't write a guide on how to fight these threats because the landscape of cybersecurity is constantly changing.
"We evolve our tactics on a daily, sometimes hourly basis," Borchers said. "It's part of why the people involved are the key to our success, there's no magic box or cool cyber jet fighter - it's about the airmen's ingenuity."
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americanmilitarynews.com · by Abbie Shull - The News Tribune · October 12, 2020
11. Dalio Says 'Time Is on China's Side' in Power Struggle With U.S.


  • Bridgewater founder speaks with NYT's Friedman at Milken event
  •  
    He says China's economy recovering faster from pandemic shock
  • Bloomberg · by Hema Parmar · October 12, 2020
    Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio said China has an advantage over the U.S. on a range of issues.
    "Time is on China's side and it's not on the United States' side, for various developments," Dalio said Monday in a conversation with New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman at the Milken Institute Global Conference. "What's going to be a difficult situation in the new administration is destiny is on the side of China growing, and doing better probably."
    Ray Dalio
    Photographer: Patrick T. Fallon/Bloomberg
    He noted how China's economy has rebounded faster during the pandemic than that of the U.S. and that the listing of "hot" companies on Chinese stock markets is attracting capital. He also said China's higher interest rates mean the nation is in a better position of "not having to print money."
    In July, Dalio warned in a LinkedIn post that tensions between the U.S. and China could spiral into an armed conflict, saying there's "usually an economic war" before "a shooting war." Later that month, he said the two nations may find themselves ensnared in a "capital war" that could hurt the dollar.
    He reiterated those views on Monday.
    "You're going to see the internationalization of the renminbi, which was intentionally not developed before, because it is a threat to the American world order," said Dalio, 71.
    This year has been a rough one for Westport, Connecticut-based Bridgewater, the world's biggest hedge fund firm. Its flagship Pure Alpha II fund fell 18.6% through August. The firm manages about $148 billion, down from roughly $160 billion at the start of the year.
    Bloomberg · by Hema Parmar · October 12, 2020

    12. Low, Fast, Networked & Lethal: Future Army Airpower

    Low, Fast, Networked & Lethal: Future Army Airpower

    Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville and other top Army pilots say these new technologies, tactics, & training will keep aircraft alive against high-tech foes like Russia and China.
    By   SYDNEY J. FREEDBERG JR.
    on October 12, 2020 at 4:00 PM
    breakingdefense.com · by Sydney J. Freedberg Jr.
    The Sikorsky Raider-X (left) and the Bell 360 Invictus (right)
    WASHINGTON: The year is 2030, and an Army scout aircraft streaks above the treetops at 200 miles an hour.
    At speeds no conventional helicopter could reachadvanced sensors and automation help the human pilots skim over obstacles while staying under radar. Wireless networks link the manned craft to a swarm of unmanned ones: mini-drones to scout ahead, big flying "mules" to haul high-powered jamming pods and racks of missiles. Miles overhead, satellites spot enemy anti-aircraft batteries and warn the pilots to evade, then transmit target coordinates to long-range missile batteries that blast a path for the aircraft to advance.
    Gen. James McConville checks out the upgraded cockpit of the new UH-60V "Victor" model, which will be mainly used by the National Guard.
    That's the vision for Army aviation in future wars, as laid out for us in interviews with senior pilots - including the Chief of Staff.
    Can Army aircraft, flying lower and slower than stealthy jets, really stay survivable and relevant in the face of high-tech anti-aircraft defenses? Absolutely, Gen. James McConville told me ahead of the annual Association of the US Army conference.
    "The future battlefield will be much more lethal, much more dangerous for aircraft," the Chief of Staff told me. "We're going to have to be concerned about multiple air defense systems, [but] there's multiple things you can do to protect the aircraft."
    Brig. Gen. AlAan Pepin
    "The reality is no technology is going to protect you alone," said Brig. Gen. Allan Pepin, head of US Army Special Operations Aviation Command, which has pioneered low-altitude tactics to evade detection. But what if you take those tactics and add multiple new technologies, from the blistering 200+ mph speeds already achieved by experimental Future Vertical Lift aircraft, to long-range precision weapons, to the networked teams of manned and unmanned aircraft flight-tested at China Lake and Yuma Proving Ground? Then you get a future force that can win through - or, at least, it does in Army wargames and simulations.
    The concept is what the Army, with its typical awkward jargon, is calling the "lower-tier air domain." The idea is to fly the seam between earth and sky: high enough to race over the rivers and rough terrain that slow down ground troops, low enough to avoid radar-guided missiles that threaten jets. In this in-between realm, the generals told us, Army aviation can not only survive, but make a unique contribution to victory that neither high-altitude airpower nor surface forces can replicate.
    AH-64 Apaches
    From High To Low
    Some 17 years ago, during the invasion of Iraq, 32 AH-64 Apache gunships on a long-range raid flew low past the city of Najaf. The heavily armed and armored attack helicopters, pride of Army aviation, got shot up so badly that one went down - its crew were captured by the Iraqis - and the rest turned back. After that, the threat of small-arms fire, combined with the extreme altitudes of eastern Afghanistan, drove a generation of Army aviators to focus on training, tactics, and technologies for flying high.
    But unlike jet aircraft, helicopters can't fly high enough to escape surface-to-air missiles. Against a foe more sophisticated than the Taliban - like Russia, China, North Korea, or Iran - their best chance of survival is to fly low, where hills, forests, and buildings hide them from enemy radar. That requires an entirely different set of training, tactics, and technologies, which the Army is now in the throes of developing.
    "You fly the speed, you fly the altitude, and you use the tactics, depending on the enemy you face," McConville told me. "When you look at the threat, if it's small arms, then helicopters may fly higher.... If it's a radar threat, you may fly lower to take advantage of the terrain."
    Gen. David Francis
    "We're in the midst of training our aviation formations differently to operate versus peer and near-peer adversaries," said Maj. Gen. David Francis, who commands the aviation training "schoolhouse" at Fort Rucker, Kans. "What we have to do is develop our ability to fly that low level [and] the tactics, techniques and procedures that allow us to fight decisively in large-scale combat operations." That includes a new block of instruction on low-altitude tactics and updated emergency procedures for low altitudes where pilots have much less time to react to a problem before they impact the ground.
    "Some of the best techniques for these altitudes ... come from our special ops aviation forces," Francis added.
    "Since the formation of USASOC after the Iran hostage failure [in 1980], we've stayed focused on flying low to mitigate risk against enemy early warning systems and air defense," Pepin said, even though that raises the risk of hitting obstacles and small-arms fire. "We do that routinely...against real-world threat systems."
    What's more, Pepin added, while special ops aviators remained focused on counter-terrorism when they deploy abroad, "in our home station training, we are 100 percent focused on the high-end, large scale combat operations."
    FVL: Go Fast
    Taking cover from anti-aircraft weapons amidst low-altitude radar clutter is central to the Army's plan for Future Vertical Lift, a flying "ecosystem" of interconnected manned and unmanned aircraft. FVL pilots will use the terrain for self-protection, on top of jammers, decoys, and other technological countermeasures, said Brig. Gen. Walter Rugen, the FVL director at Army Futures Command. "We can use tactics, techniques and procedures to a far greater extent than technology that other, higher fliers have to use," he told me.
    That doesn't mean FVL is low-tech. To the contrary, the novel aircraft designs that Lockheed Martin (bolstered by its purchase of Sikorsky) and Bell are now developing - tiltrotorscompound helicopters with pusher propellers, choppers with wings - offer speed and range that conventional helicopters cannot match.
    Even with extensive automation in the cockpit - the goal is for FVL to fly itself in some conditions - it'll take intense training to teach humans to maneuver around obstacles at these velocities. "We're going to have to train crew members to fly at those speeds [and] overhaul our training methodology," Pepin said. "We don't want to have an aircraft that can fly twice as fast but we're flying at the old speed."
    You also need sensors to spot obstacles at greater distances while there's still time to react. "The human eye can only see so much," he said: To survive at FVL speeds, "we have to start seeing things further out."
    The human brain can also only handle so much complexity. "We're very focused on offloading the cognition requirements of the cockpit," Rugen told me, "automating what we already know the machine may do better," like preventing high-speed collisions.
    "I don't want to oversell what we've already demonstrated in experimentation," he said, "but we've shown our unmanned systems [can] know where the other manned and unmanned aircraft are and deconflict around them." That kind of automated collaboration is central to Future Vertical Lift.
    A UH-60 Black Hawk launches an ALTIUS mini-drone at Yuma Proving Ground.
    Into the Swarm
    The manned Future Vertical Lift aircraft won't rely solely on their onboard sensors to spot threats and obstacles. Instead, they'll pull data from drones, satellites, and other sensors to vastly extend the pilots' perception of the war zone.
    This digital revolution traces its roots back to Iraq, Gen. McConville told me. After growing up wrestling with paper maps and a flashlight during night missions, he said, "having Global Positioning Satellites [updating] moving map displays in the cockpit just gave us this incredible speed to get the target." In battles like Sadr City, he went on, "we could have our attack helicopters stand off," out of the enemy's sight, while drones with laser designated pinpointed targets for precision strikes.
    Against high-tech opponents, however, you can't rely on any single technology because the enemy may find a counter. So Future Vertical Lift envisions a mesh network that gives manned and unmanned aircraft multiple pathways to connect even when a given link is jammed. That will allow pilots access to a wide range of options, not just the equipment on their own aircraft.
    Brig. Gen. Walter Rugen
    The FVL scout, the Future Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft, will be armed with a new 20mm cannon now in testing and a Modular Effects Launcher capable of firing either long-range missiles or mini-drones carrying sensors, jammers, communications relays, and other specialized payloads.
    Those mini-drones, called Air-Launched Effects, should be numerous and expendable enough to "flood the zone," Brig Gen. Rugen said: In the recent Project Convergence exercise in the Yuma Desert, the Army kept eight ALE surrogates in the air at once, sharing data across a 40-mile front.
    Larger drones will act as "mules," Rugen said, carrying payloads too big for ALE: long-range jammers, racks of missiles, and even additional ALEs. (Heavily modified MQ-1C Grey Eagles played this role in recent experiments). Pilots can call in the mule drones to stage electronic or physical attacks so manned aircraft don't expose themselves to detection by emitting a jamming signal or launching a missile.
    So, unlike the heavily armed Apache, "FARA doesn't have to carry everything, [because] it's going to outsource the lethality," Rugen said. "We want to use other people's stuff."
    In fact, the most powerful punches that future pilots can unleash won't come from an aircraft at all. They'll be long-range strikes by ground-based artillery and missile launchers now in development, which the Army sees as blasting paths through enemy defenses for airpower to advance.
    In this fall's Project Convergence exercise, Rugen said, ALE mini-drones helped spot a target for a 36-mile cannon shot. Next year's Project Convergence should feature a 300-plus-mile shot from a prototype Precision Strike MissileHypersonic weapons set to entire service in 2023 will fly thousands of miles. And Army aviation will share data with other services' long-range weapons as well, from F-35 fighters to Navy Tomahawks.
    So, helicopters or tiltrotors may spot the target, but that doesn't mean they have to be the ones that shoot it. "In this joint environment," Pepin said, "we don't really care whether something comes off a fixed-wing platform, an unmanned platform or ground platform." What matters is whatever kills the target - and keeps US troops alive.
    breakingdefense.com · by Sydney J. Freedberg Jr.


    13. China, Cambodia sign landmark FTA, marking stronger ties
    chinadaily.com.cn · by 于小明
    Visitors walk past the Cambodian pavilion during the second China International Import Expo in Shanghai on Nov 6, 2019. [Photo/Xinhua]
    China and Cambodia have signed a landmark free trade agreement, marking stronger bilateral economic and trade ties between the two countries, China's Ministry of Commerce said on Monday.
    As the 18th FTA signed by China with foreign economies, the China-Cambodia FTA is the latest reflection of China' commitment to promoting the construction of an open world economy. It's also a practice under China's new "dual circulation" development pattern, in which domestic and foreign markets complement and reinforce each another, with the domestic market as the mainstay.
    The Association of Southeast Asian Nations and China have become each other's largest trading partner, with total trade from January to August reaching $416.5 billion, thanks to upgraded free trade area protocol and supply chain cooperation.
    The ministry said the FTA marks a new era of the two countries' comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership, the joint construction of shared human community and their further cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative.
    Setting a new milestone in the development of bilateral economic and trade relations of China and Cambodia, it's believed the FTA will boost their economic and trade relationship, benefiting enterprises and the people of the two countries, it said.






    14.  Irregular warfare with China, Russia: Ready or not, it's coming - if not already here
    Important OpEd from Sean McFate.  He uses my favorite T.E. Lawrence quote.



    Irregular warfare with China, Russia: Ready or not, it's coming - if not already here

    The Hill · by Sean McFate, opinion contributor · October 11, 2020
    Last week, amid the hubbub of the presidential debate, revelations about President Trump's taxes, the "SCOTUS War" and the COVID-plagued White House, something important happened that almost everybody missed. The Defense Department released the unclassified summary of the Irregular Warfare Annex to the 2018 National Defense Strategy.
    The strategy tells our armed forces how to prepare for and win the next war, which almost certainly will be an "irregular war" fight. The military uses terms such as "irregular," "unconventional," "asymmetrical," "hybrid" and "gray zone" to describe any style of combat not resembling the Battle of the Bulge (aka, "regular" war).
    What makes warfare "regular"? No one knows. However, we do know what it looks like: state-on-state armed conflict, in which militaries are like gladiators battling for the fate of the world. Combatants are expected to wear uniforms, have patriot zeal, and honor peace treaties. It's what famed military theorist Carl von Clausewitz envisioned, and what the "Laws of War" seek to regulate.
    There's just one problem: No one fights this way anymore, except us. No wonder Afghanistan is the longest war in American history. Since 1945, the overwhelming majority of armed conflicts have been irregular: insurgencies that seek to topple governments, narco-wars that seize countries - "narco-states" - as booty, genocides fought between ethnic groups, and terrorists who wish to burn down the world.
    Ironically, there's nothing more irregular today than "regular war." Of the hundreds of armed conflicts since World War II, you could probably count the number of regular wars on two hands: the Korean War, Arab-Israel wars, Indo-Pakistani War, the Falklands, and so forth. Incursions such as the U.S. invasion of Grenada don't count, and the six-month Gulf War I was simply a prelude to the quagmires that followed.
    What made the 2018 National Defense Strategy seismic is this: It pivoted our military away from whacking terrorists and towards threatening nation-states (read: China and Russia). In the Pentagon, the shorthand for this outlook is called "Great-Power Competition."
    Here's the problem, and it's not the fault of the pen-holders who drafted the 2018 strategy. Most experts imagine a war between the U.S. and China and/or Russia will be a conventional fight. It won't. Conventional warfare is obsolete, like the Napoleonic horse charge, the Viking shield wall and the Greek phalanx. Yet, many in the national security community assume the next war will look like World War II with better technology. It's a case of "generals always fight the last war, especially if they won it."
    Anyone who thinks "Great-Power Competition" will be a conventional war is deluded. Our adversaries are not suicidal, and they know that battling our military in a head-on, conventional-war fight would be organized seppuku. But they also know that the U.S. struggles in irregular wars, as evidenced by Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan.
    Owing to this, we should expect China and Russia to come after us with irregular-war strategies, avoiding a conventional fight. Russia already is mastering this way of war. For the first time since the Cold War, they have launched expeditionary operations in the Middle East and Africa, and have done so exclusively through irregular-war strategies. Same with Ukraine: There, Russia waged a shadow war with Spetsnaz special forces, mercenaries such as the Wagner Group, "Little Green Men" and astro-turfed pro-Russian "separatist" groups - all irregular warriors. Regular military units, such as tanks and destroyers, arrived only after Crimea was taken.
    China is more nuanced. Its military is conventional but that's not how it conquers. The Belt and Road Initiative is an economic power strategy that wins through debt-trap diplomacy. In 2015, for example, Beijing "Tony Sopranoed" Sri Lanka out of its prize port, Hambantota.
    China also uses malign influence to weaken adversaries' resolve to confront it. Most people think of Russia as the dark master of disinformation, but it is not alone. Beijing calls it the "Three Warfares Strategy." It also wages legal warfare, or "lawfare." Its goal is to bend - or to rewrite - the rules of the international order in China's favor. This is not the rule of law but, rather, its subversion.
    China and Russia conquer through irregular-war strategies. That works because they disguise war as peace, until it's too late. It's a "boiling the frogs slowly" approach. Just ask the Crimeans or Sri Lankans. Irregular warfare manufactures the fog of war for victory, something that makes the conventional warrior's head explode.
    One could even ask: Are we already at war with Russia and/or China, and don't know it? As T. E. Lawrence said: "Irregular war [is] far more intellectual than a bayonet charge."
    Irregular warfare is the armed conflict of our lifetime, and the Pentagon's strategy to confront it is long overdue.
    Sean McFate is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and the author of five books, including "The New Rules of War: How America Can Win - Against Russia, China, and Other Threats" (2019). He is a professor of strategy at Georgetown University and an adviser to Oxford University's Centre for Technology and Global Affairs. He served in the U.S. Army's 82nd Airborne Division before working as a private military contractor and as a military consultant.
    The Hill · by Sean McFate, opinion contributor · October 11, 2020



    15. Great Power Competition and the role of America's Air Commandos
    sandboxx.us · by Stavros Atlamazoglou · October 6, 2020
    Great Power Competition.
    Ever since the Department of Defense (DoD) published its new National Defense Strategy in 2018, Great Power Competition has become the new buzzword in military and intelligence circles. Despite - but also because of - the numerous government agencies and parties concerned about Great Power Competition the term doesn't have an official definition yet.
    One could define Great Power Competition as the process when state actors pursue influence, leverage, and advantages to secure their interests.
    As the U.S. military is shifting gears from counterinsurgency and low-intensity conflicts to near-peer conflict, the U.S. Special Operations Command (SOCOM) and its subordinate commands are adapting to stay ahead of the curve.
    In a recent interview at the Air Force Association's Air, Space, Cyber Conference, Lieutenant General Jim Slife, the commander of Air Force Special Operations Command (AFSOC), spoke about how his Air Commandos are looking to evolve and be an asset to the rest of the DoD in the era of Great Power Competition.
    A U.S. Air Force pararescueman assigned to the 82nd Expeditionary Rescue Squadron, deployed in support of Combined Joint Task Force - Horn of Africa (CJTF-HOA), conducts close quarter battle drills in East Africa, May 10, 2019. (U.S. Air Force Photo by Staff Sgt. Corban D. Lundborg).
    In short, AFSOC is looking to invest in its operators and crews; to communicate better its capabilities to "customers;" and to tighten its relationships with the Air Force.
    Lt. Gen. Slife began by saying that the new AFSOC will need to be different from the one that went to war after the 9/11 attacks.
    "We clearly see the future coming at us full speed ahead, so we have to change ourselves before the environment does it for us," said Slife in a press interview.
    "What that means is that we have to stop doing some of the things that we've been doing in order to free up our human capital and the limited financial resources we have to do the things that are those high-valued things required for the future."
    AFSOC is comprised of special operations aircraft and special tactics troops. In the latter category there are four career fields: Pararescue (PJ), Combat Control (CCT), Special Reconnaissance (SR), and Tactical Air Control Party (TACP).
    PJs are the only unit in the Department of Defense specially trained and equipped to conduct combat rescue and personnel recovery missions. CCTs specialize in surveying air assault and landing zones and are usually qualified Joint Terminal Attack Controllers (JTACs), meaning that they can call in airstrikes. SR operators, the newest AFSOC career field, specialize in air-focused, ground-level Intelligence, Reconnaissance, and Surveillance (ISR). Finally, special operations TACPs are JTACs and get attached to other special operations units.
    A U.S. Air Force Special Tactics operator sets up satellite communications during a full mission profile as part of a beta Special Reconnaissance course near Hurlburt Field, Florida. The Special Tactics Training Squadron conducted the course to identify specific core tasks required for each skill level of the new SR career field. Special Tactics is U.S. Special Operation Command's tactical air and ground integration force, and the Air Force's special operations ground force, enabling global access, precision strike, personnel recovery operations and battlefield surgery. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Rose Gudex)
    Some of these career fields came under strain because of the intense demands that the Global War on Terror (GWOT) placed on AFSOC. The need for more operators had to be balanced with maintaining the selection and training standards. During the conference, Slife acknowledged this pressure for more operators, without compromising standards, and stated that AFSOC is on a healthy, sustainable path to meet its quotas.
    However, he noted that some of their career fields might have become too specialized to remain competitive at a time of reduced budgets. Slife said that they are looking into this and considering expanding the skill and mission sets for some of their career fields.
    Moreover, AFSOC, it seems, might need to market itself better to regional commanders. According to Slife, officers from other branches are usually aware of AFSOC's special tactics capability but not so aware of the other capabilities of the command.
    "What we need to do is kind of open the curtain a little bit. . . so that they [other commanders] understand what capabilities are available to them through the forces that AFSOC provides," said Slife.
    Additionally, AFSOC is looking to get closer to its parent service since the Air Force 'speaks' the same language and thus might be better positioned to leverage the capabilities of its Air Commandos in an era of Great Power Competition.
    sandboxx.us · by Stavros Atlamazoglou · October 6, 2020


    16. US Marines pivot approach to information warfare at commandant's direction


    Defense News · by Mark Pomerleau · October 12, 2020
    WASHINGTON - Three years after their formation, the U.S. Marine Corps' tactical information warfare forces are at an inflection point, as they make changes to how they operate per directions from the commandant, according to a top official.
    The Marine expeditionary force information groups, or MIG, were created in 2017 as a means of modernizing the Corps and keeping pace with adversaries who exploit the information environment via cyberattacks, propaganda and electronic warfare. the MIGs includes tactical cyber operators to conduct defensive cyber operations, electronic warfare, signals intelligence and other information-related capabilities.
    As each of the military services reorganize under a banner that's loosely referred to as information warfare, the Corps' version is dubbed "operations in the information environment," purposefully eschewing the term "information warfare."
    "Over the past three years we have learned a lot about conducting operations in the information environment through the implementation of the MIGs. As part of the overall Marine Corps Force Design efforts, we are turning our lessons learned into process improvements at the MIG level and continuing to refine our capability requirements at the MIG and tactical level," Jennifer Edgin, assistant deputy commandant for information, told C4ISRNET. "The improvements are based on ensuring survivability and lethality of our expeditionary forces and ensuring that every Marine has access to information when they need it, how they need it, on demand."
    The commandant of the Marine Corps has directed a force design update and required the service to not only slim down - meaning there will be cuts in units as well as fleets of large platforms such as tanks - but also to better integrate with the Navy by acting as an expeditionary extension of the fleet.
    This integration is taking place from operational and strategic levels all the way down to the more tactical carrier strike group and amphibious ready group/Marine expeditionary unit levels, culminating at the joint maritime level of the combatant commands.
    Officials say that based on preliminary force design ideas, the commander of a Marine expeditionary unit in 2030 will likely will need a cyber planner, a psychological operations planner and someone who understands space. This would mean the force must also figure out how to integrate those individuals into the expeditionary strike group.
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    As for the more tactical level, Edgin told reporters during the virtual Modern Day Marine conference in mid-September that generally the Corps looked at refining its process for improving the force, attaining different capabilities and ensuring the MIGs are optimized for the future.
    "If we look at the environment where the MIGs need to operate, they need to be adaptable and flexible to the mission and also being staged to be threat-informed," she told reporters. "If we look at the operations in the information environment, information doesn't have a geographic boundary. We need to be able to adapt and flex based on the things that we are seeing and the missions that we need to perform."
    As these forces seek to augment traditional units and act as the information advisers for commanders in highly dynamic environments, they must be highly adaptable.
    Officials have explained how they can flip paradigms and create more friction against adversaries. In one exampledefensive cyberspace operations-internal defensive measures companies within the Corps, combined with other fleet resources, are able to better understand adversaries and affect their behavior below the threshold of conflict.




    17. Lorenzana says 2nd stage of PH military upgrade won't be completed on time
    newsinfo.inquirer.net · by Frances Mangosing · October 12, 2020
    MANILA, Philippines-The Philippine military was likely to fall short of its target to complete the second stage of an upgrade program by the year President Rodrigo Duterte steps down from office, Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said on Monday (Oct. 12).
    "At the rate we are going, we can't do it," Lorenzana told senators at a budget hearing, speaking partly in Filipino. He said it could take the Third Horizon of the program to "complete our minimum credible defense."
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    The upgrade program's Horizon 2, with a timetable of 2018 until 2022, was designed to achieve a minimum credible defense capability for the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP). The Third Horizon stretches from 2023 to 2027.
    For Horizon 2, the Philippine military planned to purchase multi-role fighters, offshore patrol vessels, corvettes, light tanks, land-based missile systems and other assets.
    Lorenzana said minimum credible defense meant the capacity "to face intruders" with sufficient hardware and arsenal "like ships, missiles so we won't be bullied, or whatever you call that, they can just intrude in our territory without being challenged by our troops."
    He said the objective was to give the Philippine military capacity to go into a "stand off" with foreign intruders. "Not to fight but to protect our interests. Not for them to just intrude and we won't have anything to face them with," he said.
    Lorenzana said he estimated that Horizon 2 of the upgrade program was only 25 percent complete.
    "By 2022 we should have accomplished minimum credible defense posture," said Sen. Panfilo Lacson during the budget hearing. "As how we're doing right now, it's only 25 percent when it should be half-way," he said.
    "So it's impossible for Horizon 2 to be followed," Lacson said.
    A table presented at the briefing showed that only two out of 85 approved projects have been finished under Horizon 2.
    The 85 approved projects cost P309.56 billion, but only P49.7 billion has been released so far, the table showed.
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    Twenty remaining approved projects worth P158.55 billion under this phase still need funding.
    A separate table showed that Horizon 1, which covered 2013 to 2017, has a total of 53 approved projects worth P96.77 billion.
    An amount of P82.03 billion has been released for the first horizon, with 30 projects completed.

    Where's P9.4-B?

    For 2021, P38 billion has been allocated for the AFP modernization program, which included P5 billion expected remittances from the Bases Conversion and Development Authority.
    The proposed P4.5 trillion 2021 budget sought to restore P8 billion of funds to the defense department which had been diverted to COVID-19 response by the national government.
    A total of P19.3 billion was cut from the defense department budget this year due to the pandemic, Lorenzana said, with P17.8 billion originally intended for the modernization program.
    While P8 billion out of the P17.8 billion realigned fund will be returned to the defense department for next year, the P9.4 billion from the 2019 GAA that was cut from Lorenzana's agency appeared to be missing.
    "The P9.4 billion being utilized for multi-year obligations that was taken from 2019 has not been restored in the 2021 budget," Lorenzana said.
    Projects covered by the P9.4 billion in funding were "ready for implementation but COVID-19 came," said Lorenzana. The money has not been appropriated yet "so it stayed" with the Department of Budget and Management (DBM) and was added to P8 billion for defense in 2020 for a total of P17.8 billion.
    Sen. Franklin Drilon questioned the status of the P9.4 billion allocation. "Is this authorization lost? Is that authorization no longer effective?" he said.
    Lacson said he couldn't figure it out either: "I can't really understand why DBM will cut the P9.4 billion that you said you were ready to implement." "Why was it pulled out for COVID, then the P8 billion was returned and it seemed the P9.4 billion was forgotten," Lacson said.
    There was no representative from the DBM to address the senators' queries.
    Drilon, however, also raised concern over the DND's inability to disburse the P9.4 billion allotted to it in the 2019 national budget.
    "This doesn't reflect well on the AFP's absorptive capacity," said Drilon.
    "We are inclined to get to the conclusion that the absorptive capacity of the AFP must be reviewed by the good secretary so that these funds will not remain unspent," he said.

    2 percent GDP for defense

    The underfunded Philippine military, which is one of the most ill-equipped in the region, faces a set of challenges-from budget lack to security of the country's vast waters.
    The DND is proposing at least P208.71 billion for 2021. Lorenzana renewed his call to raise defense spending to 2 percent of the country's gross domestic product to build a truly capable military.
    He said he previously requested that defense spending be at least 1.5 percent of GDP. "It would have been good and we could increase as we go along to 2 percent," he said partly in Filipino. "As you said we are just at over 1 percent. That money is really inadequate," Lorenzana said.


    18. Esper's Reforms: An Interim Report Card
    Conclusion: "While all this was going on, Secretary Esper oversaw the standing up of a new military service in the Space Force and managed a global pandemic response operation by the Defense Department involving more than 60,000 uniformed and civilian personnel during the same time as U.S. servicemembers were "serving in more than 100 nations deterring enemies, reassuring allies and building capabilities."
    Esper's Reforms: An Interim Report Card

    What progress has the defense secretary made on his ambitious goals to reorient the Defense Department?
    defenseone.com · by Mackenzie Eaglen
    It's tough to be Secretary of Defense. It's even tougher to be one for this president, who with a single tweet can upend months and years of careful Pentagon planning, overrule his own executives without their input, and change controversial policies on any issue, no matter how small, in an instant. He can even embarrass or undermine you while you're trying to run the world's strongest military.
    To his credit, Defense Secretary Mark Esper has accomplished much of what he set out to do behind the scenes and without much fanfare-on top of a global pandemic. The secretary, who took office 15 months ago, has spent the past year attempting to shift 1) dollars, 2) people, and 3) tasks toward his department's top challenge: long-term competition with China. Esper gets high marks for the first objective, notable progress in the second, and his successor will have to duke it out with the bureaucracy regarding the third.
    Money. Secretary Esper extended his "night court" review process across the defense enterprise, including to combatant commands. The savings manifest from these efficiency drills are respectable. And no "reform" was considered too small or too controversial by this secretary. For example, the department used to print so many extra paper maps that they took up the equivalent of five Pentagon courtyards of warehouse space. Now, maps are printed as needed, saving money and freeing up real estate for more worthy needs.
    Esper even considered very modest reductions over five years to the military health system that would have come over with next year's budget in the spring. While Pres. Trump promptly killed that internal deliberation of a $2.2 billion reduction, its mere consideration shows the seriousness of his effort to better align dollars with strategy.
    On a bigger scale, the services are all moving money to better implement the National Defense Strategy. Just last week, Navy Secretary Braithwaite told USNI News that he's "done a deep-dive into the budget and found tens of billions of dollars in cuts" that will help pay for the new 500-ship fleet endorsed by the defense secretary.
    In the budget for this fiscal year, Secretary Esper requested historic levels of research and development funding for new technologies such as artificial intelligence, hypersonic weapons, directed energy, and 5G networks. The Navy awarded a contract for a new class of frigates, the Maritime Security Initiative has provided $400 million in allied assistance in Asia, and all the services oversaw manned-unmanned teaming in new high-tech experiments.
    People. Secretary Esper has also been busy putting like-minded thinkers in charge when given the opportunity. In August, the new Air Force chief of staff, Gen. CQ Brown, released guidance titled "Accelerate Change or Lose." In it, Gen. Brown agrees that winning the long-term competition will require "ruthless prioritization," which means identifying impediments to change and reducing redundancies across the services, such as air base defense and deep strike capability.
    Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger has gone even further with his Force Design 2030, which orders up six major capability changes to better focus on China. While controversial, his plans also drew wide acclaim for their candor and his willingness to "gore a few sacred cows."
    While Secretary Esper has valiantly tried to reorient the entire defense workforce toward the strategy, this is the hardest hurdle to overcome in a bureaucracy of this size. The secretary opened a new China policy office, established a China Strategy Management Group to better integrate efforts, and directed the National Defense University to dedicate half of its coursework to the PRC, thereby making the People's Liberation Army the pacing threat in all defense schools, programs, and training.
    Another handicap has been the high turnover and many vacancies in senior political positions, which partly explain why the Department has yet to complete and send to Congress several key documents, including the 30-year shipbuilding plan, new Navy force structure assessment, and new joint operational concept - all of which may be obsolete by the coming election, new Congress, and budget cycle.
    Tasks. Secretary Esper has begun to tackle the true source of the tasks challenge by clean-sheet reviewing the regional combatant commands, but his successor will have to work hard to drive any progress forward and solidify its true shift to competition. The next secretary will also need to oversee a real roles-and-missions review, in part to get at the insatiable demands by combatant commands for forces for peacetime training, assurance and deterrence missions all over the world each day.
    Services are conducting missions of lesser importance when they should be using this time to regenerate combat power, develop leap-ahead technologies, and refine still-nascent operational concepts. For example, earlier this year Secretary Esper oversaw the doubling of military resources to U.S. Southern Command for drug interdiction. Additional assets deployed included Navy destroyers and littoral combat ships, Navy and Air Force patrol and ISR aircraft, helicopters, and even a Security Forces Assistance Brigade company. This kind of firepower "is expensive for counterdrug operations - and is not the most effective, either." When you're "not expecting drug runners to have torpedoes" in the words of Bryan Clark at Hudson Institute, less expensive resources can and should be used for these types of missions, especially with a Navy currently pushed to the brink. U.S. warships are out on record-long deployments with shorter rest and training periods upon coming home. In 2015, the Navy reported that it couldn't meet even half of combatant commands' requests for forces, and the trend has since only worsened.
    Conclusion
    While all this was going on, Secretary Esper oversaw the standing up of a new military service in the Space Force and managed a global pandemic response operation by the Defense Department involving more than 60,000 uniformed and civilian personnel during the same time as U.S. servicemembers were "serving in more than 100 nations deterring enemies, reassuring allies and building capabilities."
    Secretary Esper stayed committed to his ten targeted goals-each with subtasks-under these three broad objectives to begin achieving "irreversible implementation" of the National Defense Strategy. He has made laudable progress - while leaving plenty of work for next year.


    19. First survey of West Point cadets' attitudes about civil-military relations raises concerns

    This requires a lot of reflection and analysis.

    First survey of West Point cadets' attitudes about civil-military relations raises concerns

    armytimes.com · by Davis Winkie · October 12, 2020
    In the midst of a challenging year for civil-military relations in America, the U.S. Military Academy in West Point, New York, has allowed an unprecedented and timely research survey of more than 1,400 cadets' attitudes on civil-military relations.
    Several incidents so far in 2020 highlight what survey officials say are coincidental examples of the need to gauge the cadets. In June, Army Gen. Mark Milley participated in what became a controversial photo opportunity at Lafayette Square in Washington, D.C., in which protesters were violently pushed back to make way for President Donald Trump and his entourage.
    Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, publicly apologized. He later had to reassure Congress that there's "no role for the U.S. armed forces" in resolving any election dispute as concern grew that the military would have to intervene. And on Friday, the Washington Post wrote about a new non-partisan group of lawyers - The Orders Project - building a free legal advice network for troops who may receive unlawful orders related to the election.
    Amid this surging public awareness of civil-military norms, a group of academics has drafted a working paper taking the pulse of how cadets perceive their role in civil society.
    Military Times obtained the working paper, which is undergoing revisions following its presentation at the American Political Science Association's annual conference in September. Papers presented at the conference are pre-published online while their authors revise them for submission to journals. Working papers have not yet completed the rigorous academic peer review process, and the APSA recommends using caution and seeking author permission when citing them.
    Two of the survey's three authors - Risa Brooks of Marquette University and Heidi Urben of Georgetown University, agreed to speak about their findings. The paper's other author, Army Maj. Michael Robinson of West Point, was unavailable due to his teaching duties. Urben and Brooks are also affiliated with West Point through its Modern War Institute, and Urben previously taught there.
    Brooks, the Marquette-affiliated author, explained in an interview that they designed the survey to learn "how professional norms are socialized early in an Army officer's career. Military professionalism is a key component of officership, and we wanted to get a better understanding of how cadets conceive of professionalism at this early point in their careers." The authors conducted the survey from December 2019 to January 2020.
    The survey's authors say their views do not reflect the position of the United States Military Academy, the Department of the Army, or the Department of Defense. But some of the results offer a striking view of the challenges West Point faces in working to mold an apolitical officer corps.
    Among other things, the survey found that 28 percent of cadets indicated they wouldn't "resist civilian orders that threaten the country's democratic traditions."
    Attorney Eugene Fidell, former head of the National Institute of Military Justice and Orders Project co-founder, expressed concern to Military Times about the finding but warned against jumping to conclusions, calling the survey's query "vague."
    "How that translates into real life or what they would do when faced with a doubtful order is another matter," he said.
    Jim Golby, a civil-military relations expert, told Military Times that he is not surprised by the survey's findings about how cadets would react.
    "Given America's polarized politics, it is not particularly surprising to me that we would see mixed acceptance of [civil-military] norms among a minority of young cadets," Golby said. "The most important thing for our country is that our military officers embrace these ideas completely." Golby - who did not author the study - is a former West Point instructor and a senior fellow at the University of Texas at Austin's Clements Center for National Security.
    A line of DC National Guard members stand in Lafayette Park as demonstrators gather to protest the death of George Floyd, Tuesday, June 2, 2020, near the White House in Washington. Floyd died after being restrained by Minneapolis police officers. (Alex Brandon/AP)
    Of 1,470 second- and third-year cadets, only 11 percent stated that they believe civilian policy makers should be blamed for whether we win or lose our wars. Their acceptance of military accountability contrasts with the attitudes of the Vietnam-era military, which largely adopted a narrative claiming civilian policymakers had "stabbed them in the back" and doomed the war effort.
    The surveyed cadets also largely believed that servicemembers should not discuss politics on social media: Only 13 percent of respondents said it was okay to do so. Social media conduct has been an area of emphasis in recent years for the service academies, and Naval Academy midshipman Chase Standage is currently suing the academy over his potential expulsion for racist social media posts. Standage made a series of tweets in June criticizing racial justice protests, including one claiming police violence victim, Breonna Taylor, received "justice" when police killed her.
    Midshipman sues Naval Academy over discipline for tweets
    Midshipman 1st Class Chase Standage, 21, says in the lawsuit that the academy is violating his constitutional rights of free speech and a fair and impartial hearing.
    Urben, the Georgetown professor, said the survey's findings show a successful education at West Point.
    "Cadets demonstrated good adherence to certain civil-military relations norms, such as agreeing with the notion that the military should take responsibility for the outcomes of war and that members of the military should avoid talking about politics on social media," Urben said.
    Maintaining an apolitical online presence, though, doesn't mean that the cadets are non-partisan in their personal views. Of those surveyed, 57 percent identified themselves as Republicans, and 24 percent reported they were Democrats.
    This survey also is notable because it offers a large, representative sample - nearly 1,500 cadets - of a military population. Many polls and surveys of the military have methodological and sample issues that negatively impact the accuracy of their results. In a phone interview, Jim Golby explained, "[The sample] is actually extremely rare and becoming rarer on issues relating to politics...only a handful of good surveys have [ever] done it." The service academies are even more difficult to survey.
    USMA officials said the research "is important as it has the potential to shape our sense of what we ought to be doing to educate and to socialize cadets to our Army's professional norms and values."
    Urben, the Georgetown-affiliated author of the study, emphasized the importance of conducting the survey at West Point. "At least in the Army, West Point provides the most thorough teaching and reinforcement of these critical civil-military relations norms compared to other junctures later in an officer's career."
    "I think West Point is taking the right approach," said Golby.
    Orders Project co-founder Fidell agreed. "West Point's doing something right in that cadets are alert to the importance of our constitutional norms."
    The service academies are also difficult to survey because of their tightly-controlled nature, explained Golby. He commended West Point for allowing the research.
    "It would be really easy for West Point to just shut their doors and say 'No, we don't want to do this,'" said Golby. "It is encouraging to see West Point allowing research to identify and correct potential issues among cadets early in their careers."
    Regarding those cadets who may value orders more than protecting democracy, Golby said, "I expect they came in with those attitudes most likely." he explained, "We have seen - over the past few decades of research - a breakdown in norms not just in the surveys we've done of the military, but especially in surveys we've done of the broader public."
    Golby highlighted the difficulty of teaching civil-military values to cadets. "This process of teaching norms is extremely difficult... [and] it's particularly difficult right now in the midst of the massive partisan polarization we're seeing that dominates almost every conversation we have about almost any topic in America today."

    20. How Hatred Came To Dominate American Politics


    FiveThirtyEight · by Lee Drutman · October 5, 2020
    To anyone following American politics, it's not exactly news that Democrats and Republicans don't like each other. Take what happened in the presidential debate last week. President Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden did little to conceal their disdain of one another. And although the debate marked a low point in our national discourse, it was a crystallization of a long-developing trend: loathing the opposing party.
    This is hardly a new trend; in fact, it's increasingly common among American voters. However, this level of hatred - which political scientists call "negative partisanship" - has reached levels that are not just bad for democracy, but are potentially destructive. And extreme partisan animosity is a prelude to democratic collapse.
    It wasn't always this bad, though. Forty years ago, when asked to rate how "favorable and warm" their opinion of each party was, the average Democrat and Republican said they felt OK-ish about the opposite party. But for four decades now, partisans have increasingly turned against each other in an escalating cycle of dislike and distrust - views of the other party are currently at an all-time low.
    So how did we get to this point?
    Broadly speaking, there are three trends that we can point to. The first is the steady nationalization of American politics. The second is the sorting of Democrats and Republicans along urban/rural and culturally liberal/culturally conservative lines, and the third is the increasingly narrow margins in national elections.
    The combination of these three trends has turned Washington, D.C., into a high-stakes battle where cross-party compromise is difficult, and both sides are increasingly holding out for complete control.
    Sixty years ago, state and local politics loomed larger than they do now, which meant national parties operated more like loose labels whose main function was to come together every four years to argue over who should run for president under that party. As President Eisenhower reportedly quipped as late as 1950, "There is not one Republican Party, there are 48 state Republican parties." The same was true of the Democratic Party at the time. By the 1970s, in fact, many political observers declared that partisan politics had reached their end, with split-ticket voting hitting record-high levels as candidates successfully ran on local issues and pledges to better serve their constituents.
    But beneath the surface, the parties were realigning. The civil rights movement of the 1960s and the culture wars of the 1970s and 1980s not only turned conservative Democrats into Republicans and liberal northeastern Republicans into Democrats, it also shifted the focus of politics such that Washington became the arbiter of national values. National parties began building up major fundraising and campaign consultant-driven operations, helping to standardize their messaging so that it actually meant something to vote for a Democrat or a Republican.
    Coupled with the steady decline of local media, this has resulted in a greater emphasis on national politics and less attention paid to local and state politics. Practically speaking, elections are increasingly viewed as referendums on the president and the party that controls the White House, leaving little room for individual members of Congress to distinguish themselves from their national parties.
    This brings us to the second trend that has contributed to the rise of negative partisanship: sorting. The ideologies of the party were less hard and fast 40 years ago. The Republican Party had a significant share of moderates and liberals, the inheritors of a tradition of moderate good-government Yankee republicanism that dated back to President Lincoln, and the Democratic Party once had a significant share of conservative populists from the South and the Great Plains.
    In this sense, American politics operated more like a four-party system, with jumbled liberal and conservative coalitions within and across the two parties. Senators and representatives' distinct geographic outlooks mattered more than their parties, with complex coalitions of urban liberals and rural conservatives in both parties. However, as our politics became increasingly nationalized, the political sorting of the parties accelerated. The civil rights movement is the most obvious example of this: Many in political science consider it the most significant issue (though far from the only issue) driving political sorting, as it changed the center of gravity in both parties.
    Today, it's simply harder for voters to hold a viewpoint that doesn't align with their party. For instance, there are far fewer anti-abortion Democrats or abortion-rights Republicans now than 30 years ago because these kinds of stances are unwelcome in the party. Some voters changed their party to match their beliefs; others changed their beliefs to match their party. But ultimately, both shifts contributed to the parties taking clearer and more distinct stances on a growing number of social issues, which led to more and more voters adjusting their views to match their partisanship.
    Political scientists have called this process "conflict extension." The basic idea is that as more issues have become nationalized, partisan conflicts have broadened to absorb these issues. And as the parties have taken clearer national stances, particularly around cultural and identity-based issues, voters sort more clearly into parties based on these stances.
    Cultural values are much more connected to geography than economic values. Both the rich and poor live in cities, suburbs and exurbs. But those who are socially liberal tend to live in cities, whereas those who are socially conservative tend to inhabit small towns. This partisan sorting on cultural issues has thus generated a significant partisan density divide. And because geography also corresponds to racial and ethnic diversity (basically, cities are multicultural and exurbs are mostly white), this adds another division onto the partisan divide: race.
    With all these identities accumulating on top of each other, partisanship has become a kind of "mega-identity," as political scientist Lilliana Mason argues, with party identification standing for much, much more. In fact, it's reached the point that when you meet somebody, you can immediately size them up as a "Trump voter" or a "Biden voter." That kind of easy stereotyping leads us to see the other party as distant and different. And typically, things that are distant and different are also more threatening.
    But neither side has come to dominate. Instead, America has experienced an extended period of national parity between the two parties. Elections have swung back and forth in an almost predictable pendulum fashion since 1992 - unified control of one party, divided government, unified control of the other party, and so forth, over and over.
    This back and forth has defied predictions of permanent Republican and Democratic majorities, but the closeness of elections has kept such elusive predictions of total domination both tantalizingly within reach (for one side) and dangerously close (for the other side). Simultaneously, the swings in power have imparted the lesson that when you're down, the best thing to do is demonize the other side, refuse to compromise, wait for public opinion to tack against the party in power and ride the pendulum back to a majority.
    These contradictory impulses lead to a few big policy swings (consider the changes on health care and tax policy under the Trump administration) during periods of unified government, and increasingly, in executive branch activities. They also create gridlock elsewhere and lead to a politics of zero-sum messaging, in which the party trying to win back the White House never has any incentive to compromise because it just blurs the message and helps the party in power seem more successful and legitimate. Thus, frustration - and the stakes of elections - keep rising.
    Yet beneath the surface of hyper-partisan politics, the parties themselves actually have a lot of internal division, which means they share a version of the same dilemma: Republicans and Democrats can't please all the different voters and groups who fall into their party and want their issue to be prioritized. But in a polarized two-party system, they can make it clear why the other party is bad.
    Coming into their convention, for instance, Democrats had to repair splits between the progressives and the moderates that were visible during the presidential primary. But the convention focused less on policy and more on the existential risk presented by a second Trump term. The party reminded people that, whatever concerns they have about Biden, a vote for Biden is also a vote against Trump.
    Republicans similarly focused on messaging against the Democrats (even if one of the reasons Trump emerged victorious in the 2016 primary was because the party was so divided that it couldn't decide). Trump has remade the party in his image, but even for the few remaining Trump-skeptic Republicans, nothing unites like a common enemy. And in a two-party system, being anti-anti-Trump counts the same as being pro-Trump.
    If all of this seems unsustainable, it should. The current levels of hyper-partisanship are clearly dangerous. It's bad news for a democracy when 60 to 70 percent of people view fellow citizens of the other party as a serious threat. And the more the parties continue to unify their supporters by casting the other party as the enemy, the higher this number will rise.
    There are two possible ways this ends. The first is the one we all fear - the unwinding of our democracy, because one or both sides hate each other so much that they are willing to support anti-democratic and authoritarian leadership in order to maintain power. (This is the threat Democrats have explicitly raised in recent months.)
    The other scenario is a major realignment and/or a collapse of one (or both) of the two major parties, which could reorient American political coalitions and resurrect some of the overlaps of an earlier era. The growing partisan hatreds and the forces driving them have been a long time in the making. It's possible they are coming to an end. But more than any other time in the last century and a half, they are testing the very foundations of American democracy.


    21. US Army conducts first-of-its-kind exercise for tactical information warfare unit



    Defense News · by Mark Pomerleau · October 12, 2020
    WASHINGTON - The U.S. Army's new tactical information warfare unit conducted its first training exercise specifically dedicated to maturing the formation's concepts and tactics.
    The 915th Cyber Warfare Battalion was officially created by Army Cyber Command in 2019. It consists of 12 expeditionary cyber and electromagnetic (CEMA) teams (ECT) that are solely meant to support brigade combat teams or other tactical formations with cyber, electronic warfare and information operations capabilities.
    These "fly away" teams, as some officials call them, would help plan tactical cyber operations for commanders in theater and unilaterally conduct missions in coordination with deployed forces.
    Expeditionary CEMA Team 1, or ECT-01 participated in the training event that took place in early October at Muscatatuck Urban Training Center in Indiana. The sprawling facility provides a robust digital training environment equipped with infrastructure that can be manipulated in the cyber realm without damaging actual operational systems used by the military or civilians.
    While this unit and its predecessor through the CEMA Support to Corps and Below pilot at Fort Irwin, California, previously augmented brigades during training events at the National Training Center, the ECTs were not the primary training unit. They were there solely to augment the brigade that was training.
    "Priority one is the ECT's training proficiency and having a scenario constructed around them as a training audience." Lt. Col. Matthew Davis, commander of the 915th, said in a news release. "The second purpose is to develop a training plan for how we are going to train ECTs as we build them. This is our first ECT and there are 11 more to come. So how are we going to train them? We have a draft, a beta, and this is a pilot run of the beta to figure out: Have we established the right task, condition, and standards, training objectives, and is this the right training plan?"
    The event at Muscatatuck was the first opportunity for the ECT to serve as the primary training audience working to refine tactics, techniques and procedures, as well as concepts and gunnery tables for future certification exercises.
    "We have not ever before performed a collective training validation/assessment or figured out what that needs to look like that we need to put an ECT through before we send them off to support another unit," Capt. Richard Grue, assistant S3 for the 915th Cyber Warfare Battalion, told C4ISRNET in an Oct. 12 interview.
    "This type of event would precede deploying teams to a [combat training center rotation] because the problems that we run into when we go train a CTC is that we are not the training audience - it's the maneuver unit. This provided the opportunity to focus training specifically on the ECT," Grue added.
    The event was primarily focused on the technical aspects of training for the ECTs such as on-net operations. Grue said there was no physical or technical opposing force.
    Despite the cyber moniker, these units must not only be proficient in the technical realm but also be able to maneuver with the units they support. This means being able to keep up in formation and avoid being compromised when marching on a particular objective.
    Though ECTs previously did this at Fort Irwin in support of brigades conducting a training rotation, this type of physical-specific training for the ECTs is something that is slated down the road, Grue said.
    Soldiers participating in the 915th Cyber Warfare Battalion's Field Training Exercise at Muscatatuck Urban Training. The drills took place Oct. 1-12, 2020. (Steven Stover/U.S. Army)
    The ECTs will also have to be fully cognizant of the totality of the information environment, as senior leaders call it. This includes the internet as well as other mediums such as social media and traditional media.
    Grue said these teams must not only be capable of conducting tactical cyber operations as a standalone capability, but must conduct operations in and through the entire information environment.
    Part of the exercise tested concepts and operations within this environment using a simulated internet.
    The teams tied together publicly available information via social media to inform operations in both the physical and virtual environments at Muscatatuck, which included targets' workstations, servers used to push propaganda, and physical recruiting meetings, Amanda Lockwood, solutions architect at IDS International, told C4ISRNET in an Oct. 12 interview.
    IDS International provided its Social Media Environment and Internet Replication product for the exercise. It provides a simulated social media and internet environment that includes virtual machines. The virtual machines allow participants and simulated users to send and receive emails as well as surf fake websites that include malicious links that infect the entire network.
    Units supporting the ECT could use this open social media environment to conduct surveillance of a potential target. Lockwood explained that in one scenario, forces examined the public social media account and website of a human rights group that was acting as a front for a terrorist group to find addresses and locations of key members.
    Machines that could be attacked were also part of the virtual environment, allowing the ECT to perform cyber operations and use the larger environment for information purposes, Grue said.
    In another drill, the ECT identified a house with a virtual machine inside as significant to the team's objective. As part of the robust environment at Muscatatuck, this house was equipped with devices on the Internet of Things, with physical and virtual machines run wirelessly or connected directly to a network. Using publicly available open-source tools, the team was able to target the identified system in the house and gain information to enable more physical operations, Lockwood said.
    Teams have previously demonstrated the ability to conduct over-the-air operations, targeting Wi-Fi nodes and gain access to closed-circuit television feeds to allow greater intelligence value for commanders planning urban operations. Due to the sensitivities involved, Grue declined to offer specifics regarding the capabilities and equipment the teams were using.
    The teams will eventually be outfitted with tactical cyber equipment including the C4ISR/EW Modular Open Suite of Standards man-packable chassis, as well as Modular Open Radio Frequency Architecture-compatible radio heads. These will allow team members to plug into brigade organic assets to leverage their capabilities.
    There are no prototypes for this system planned, according to Mark Adams, the vice president and general manager of wireless solutions for L3Harris Technologies. The system's contractor told C4ISRNET via email that the company expects to deliver initial units in mid-2021. He also said the firm is regularly engaged with units for feedback.
    As the Army will build 11 more ECTs, feedback and lessons learned from this first-of-its-kind event were "priceless," Maj. Marlene Harshman, 915th senior enlisted leader, said in an Army release.
    "The lessons learned from the [field exercise] will build on our current and future capacity. We have to constantly focus on the future and adapt to make expeditionary cyber better, with every operation and every lesson learned," she said. "[Muscatatuck] provided that dynamic environment for us to learn and grow as a team. That was critical in this first-ever event where the entire ECT was exercised."
    Grue noted that Muscatatuck is probably the best area for this type of training. As such, he noted one of his biggest takeaways from the event was that the service needs a very robust team and environment for training to be effective, given all an ECT does.
    "There really needs to be a robust exercise support cell in order to create an environment or create a scenario that trains everybody from the fires operators to the electronic warfare practitioners. It's a very robust team that has to come together to make an event successful and valuable for the ECT," he said.




    22. Ex-Green Beret to be extradited to Japan as Japanese corporate criminals remain at large

    connectingvets.radio.com · by Jack Murphy · October 12, 2020
    October 12, 2020 - 9:36 am
    Courtesy of the Taylor family
    Categories:
    American courts have ruled that Mike Taylor is extraditable after the Japanese government requested he be sent to Japan to stand trial. However, Japanese corporate executives who are criminally charged remain at large without the Japanese honoring the extradition treaty they signed with the United States.
    Taylor is a former U.S. Special Forces soldier who made headlines worldwide for allegedly smuggling Nissan executive Carlos Ghosn out of Japan and back to his home country, Lebanon. Months after the incident, U.S. Marshalls arrested Taylor and his eldest son at their home in Massachusetts as the Japanese had formally requested extradition. Taylor has yet to be formally charged for a crime in Japan and so it remains to be seen if his alleged actions are against Japanese law. Nominally, he is expected to be charged with helping Ghosn evade criminal prosecution in Japan for alleged corruption.
    With the courts deciding to extradite Taylor, who has been sitting in jail for months, it is now up to the State Department to make the final decision on whether or not he will be transferred to custody in Japan, a country with a shoddy human rights record when it comes to incarceration and criminal justice.
    Meanwhile, Taylor's pending extradition points out an apparent double standard in how the extradition treaty with Japan is being applied.
    In 2017, the Department of Justice indicted Takata corporate executives Shinichi Tanaka, Hideo Nakajima and Tsuneo Chikaraishi, issuing arrest warrants for all three. Takata was an airbag manufacturer until declaring bankruptcy that knowingly sold defective airbags. Evidence presented by DOJ shows that the executives knew the airbags were dangerous for over a decade and actively concealed negative test results. The most recent victim of a faulty Takata airbag was in August of 2020 bringing the death toll of Americans due to this malfunctioning airbag to 11 and the worldwide death toll to 26.
    To date, the Japanese government has not extradited Tanaka, Nakajima, or Chikraraishi.
    Want to get more connected to the stories and resources Connecting Vets has to offer? Click here to sign up for our weekly newsletter.
    Reach Jack Murphy: jack@connectingvets.com or @JackMurphyRGR.




    23.  Covid-19 Reinfection Casts Doubt On Virus Immunity: Study
    Not good.

    Covid-19 Reinfection Casts Doubt On Virus Immunity: Study

    Barron's · by Patrick GALEY

    A study published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases journal indicates that exposure to the virus may not guarantee future immunity

    THOMAS COEX
    Text size
    Covid-19 patients may experience more severe symptoms the second time they are infected, according to research released Tuesday confirming it is possible to catch the potentially deadly disease more than once.
    A study published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases journal charts the first confirmed case of Covid-19 reinfection in the United States -- the country worst hit by the pandemic -- and indicates that exposure to the virus may not guarantee future immunity.
    The patient, a 25-year-old Nevada man, was infected with two distinct variants of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, within a 48-day time frame.
    The second infection was more severe than the first, resulting in the patient being hospitalised with oxygen support.
    The paper noted four other cases of reinfection confirmed globally, with one patient each in Belgium, the Netherlands, Hong Kong and Ecuador.

    Researchers say the potential for reinfection could impact how governments plan to exit the pandemic

    TAUSEEF MUSTAFA
    Experts said the prospect of reinfection could have a profound impact on how the world battles through the pandemic.
    In particular, it could influence the hunt for a vaccine -- the currently Holy Grail of pharmaceutical research.
    "The possibility of reinfections could have significant implications for our understanding of Covid-19 immunity, especially in the absence of an effective vaccine," said Mark Pandori, for the Nevada State Public Health Laboratory and lead study author.
    "We need more research to understand how long immunity may last for people exposed to SARS-CoV-2 and why some of these second infections, while rare, are presenting as more severe."

    Waning immunity?

    Vaccines work by triggering the body's natural immune response to a certain pathogen, arming it with antibodies it to fight off future waves of infection.
    But it is not at all clear how long Covid-19 antibodies last.
    For some diseases, such as measles, infection confers lifelong immunity. For other pathogens, immunity may be fleeting at best.
    The authors said the US patient could have been exposed to a very high dose of the virus the second time around, triggering a more acute reaction.
    Alternatively, it may have been a more virulent strain of the virus.
    Another hypothesis is a mechanism known as antibody dependent enhancement -- that is, when antibodies actually make subsequent infections worse, such as with dengue fever.
    The researchers pointed out that reinfection of any kind remains rare, with only a handful of confirmed cases out of tens of millions of Covid-19 infections globally.
    However, since many cases are asymptomatic and therefore unlikely to have tested positive initially, it may be impossible to know if a given Covid-19 case is the first or second infection.

    Researchers point out that reinfection of any kind remains rare, with only a handful of confirmed cases out of tens of millions of Covid-19 infections globally

    Lionel BONAVENTURE
    In a linked comment to The Lancet paper, Akiko Iwasaka, a professor of Immunobiology and Molecular, Cellular and Developmental Biology at Yale University, said the findings could impact public health measures.
    "As more cases of reinfection surface, the scientific community will have the opportunity to understand better the correlates of protection and how frequently natural infections with SARS-CoV-2 induce that level of immunity," she said.
    "This information is key to understanding which vaccines are capable of crossing that threshold to confer individual and herd immunity," added Iwasaka, who was not involved in the study.



    24.  Will the Cultural Revolution Be Canceled?
    Food for thought.


    Will the Cultural Revolution Be Canceled? | City Journal

    City Journal · by Joel Kotkin · October 11, 2020
    It's an article of faith among many conservatives, and some liberals, that we're being swept by a Maoist cultural revolution destined to transform American society into a woke collective. Yet before surrendering basics like equality of opportunity, social order, and free speech to leftist authoritarians, we should consider whether they're the ones who will wind up getting canceled.
    Most Americans don't favor defunding police or instituting race quotas; they are wary of the costs connected with the Green New Deal and of allowing Washington to control local zoning. Many are already voting with their feet, fleeing places that promote these ideas and seeking out areas aligned with more recognizable American values. Over the past 20 years, virtually all the most progressive large states-New York, New Jersey, Illinois, and California-have suffered massive outmigration, while red or purplish states like Florida, Texas, the Carolinas, or Arizona welcome more and more Americans to resettle there. On the metropolitan level, even before Covid-19 accelerated the trend, a steady, largely unacknowledged, movement from the deep-blue core to the less progressive suburbs or exurbs has been underway.
    Political correctness-the secular religion of elite liberal society-turns out to be enormously unpopular, something President Trump has exploited politically. Some 80 percent of Americans, notes one recent survey, including most millennials and minorities, see political correctness as "a problem," not a solution for the future. Progressive social activists, a survey by the liberal research organization More in Common found, account for barely 8 percent of the adult population, less than a third of the number who identify as traditional conservatives.
    The fact that most Americans-Democrat and Republican-fall between these two categories suggests that social attitudes may be far less polarized, and less susceptible to political correctness, than has been widely assumed. As seen in the reaction to the George Floyd case, most Americans generally back the police but also embrace the notion of police reform; they are increasingly hostile, however, to the wave of violence that has accompanied some of the protests. Rather than support growing attempts to limit free speech, almost four in five Americans, according to Pew, support protecting it. These attitudes extend well beyond the base of Trumpian conservatives to include most Americans, regardless of ethnic background.
    The media epitomize the gap between the public and the nation's dominant institutions. Subjectivity, notes a recent Rand study, has replaced the world of shared facts with approaches that lead to "truth decay." Reporters once believed that their mission was to inform the public, but now many journalism schools, including Columbia, embrace progressive groupthinkopenly advancing a leftist social-justice agenda in which reporters are advocates. Even Teen Vogue has taken a neo-Marxist tack. "Moral clarity" replaces objectivity. Free speech is somehow linked to white privilege.
    These partisan attitudes have dramatically eroded trust in media, according to a new Knight Foundation study. Public trust in most large media has declined steadily over the past four years, with the biggest drops among Republicans; the New York Times, the publisher of the 1619 Project takedown of American history, is trusted by less than half of the public, compared with almost 60 percent in 2016. Gallup reports that, since the pandemic, the news media has suffered the lowest ratings of any major institution, performing even worse than Congress or President Trump.
    Certainly, the shift leftward has not helped the progressive-dominated newspaper business. Between 2001 and 2017, the publishing industry (books, newspapers, magazines) lost 290,000 jobs, a decline of 40 percent. Endless partisan sniping and countless crises have boosted CNN, but the network lags well behind right-wing Fox. NPR has seen its ratings drop as many listeners gravitate to less predictable, livelier voices like Joe Rogan.
    The new media also suffer from a credibility crisis. Controllers like those at Facebook, GoogleApple, and Twitter are increasingly determined to curate "quality content" on their sites, or even eliminate views they find objectionable, which tend to be conservative, according to employees. The idea that managers of huge social-media platforms aim to control content is more than conservative paranoia. Over 70 percent of Americans, according to a recent Pew study, believe that such platforms-as demonstrated in the case of Reddit, Facebook, and Google-"censor political views." In California, the center of Big Tech, people express more trust in the marijuana industry than they do in social media, according to a 2019 survey.
    A similar trend is at work in arts and entertainment, where partisanship has rapidly become the standard. Once divided between conservatives and liberals, Hollywood, in the words of liberal journalist Jonathan Chait, now exhibits "a pervasive, if not total, liberalism." This tilt reflects the political views of the executives: over 99 percent of all political donations by major entertainment executives in 2018 went to Democrats.
    In the past, however, many filmmakers, liberal and conservative, tried to separate politics from the business of art; today, priority often goes to gender issues and racial grievance. Quality films with broad popularity-in the vein of the The Sound of MusicThe Godfather, or, more recently, Lord of the Rings-rarely win the top prizes anymore. Instead, award-winning films largely are chosen for their appeal to insiders, even as they generally do at best modest box office. To make money, Hollywood resorts to producing superhero movies.
    This phenomenon is likely to get worse before it gets better. Just recently, the Academy announced that applicants for Best Picture must fulfill quotas for minorities, women, the disabled, and gays. Under these conditions, some suggest, even as brilliant a film as the Oscar-nominated 1917-set in World War I trenches-would face tough barriers since its cast, and directors, were all white men.
    Americans are not enthusiastically embracing the new cultural orthodoxy. Many may share progressive views on gender and the environment, but they don't necessarily want to spend their free time being reeducated.
    Before Covid, the audience for awards shows such as the Emmys and Oscars, increasingly disconnected from the values and tastes of many Americans, had already dropped to record lows. And since the pandemic, the ratings, as seen in the Emmys, have headed down still further. Attendance at theaters plunged even before Covid, and the prospects for a strong recovery-given an unappealing product for many-seem limited.
    Much the same can be said about television and sports. Ratings for politicized media like ESPN have plummeted. The decision by A&E to drop its popular Live PD show-made to appease anti-police sentiment-cost it roughly half its viewers. The industry may be thriving in its progressive lane, but it's clearly out of touch with much of its market.
    Even sports are losing their allure. Even as much of the population remains quarantined at home, ratings for the National Basketball Association-the wokest league of them all-have cratered, falling behind Fox's Tucker Carlson, not someone who appeals beyond the right. With players "taking the knee" and threatening walkouts after reported police incidents, the numbers are also way down for Major League Baseball and the National Football League. Perhaps Americans would prefer some entertainment in these hard times, and not to have to listen to "social justice" rhetoric from the likes of LeBron "Peking" James, a multimillionaire and passionate defender of the league's Chinese sponsors.
    Higher education has served as master instructor and amplifier for the new orthodoxy, but impatience is growing with the performance of our schools. College students are graduating with fixed ideas about racial politics but few real-world skills. One recent study of American college students found that more than one-third "did not demonstrate any significant improvement in learning" over four years of college. The products of today's universities maintain rigid positions on various issues, confident of their superior intelligence and perspicuity. Employers also report that recent graduates are short on critical-thinking skills.
    Many colleges were hurting before Covid-19, with a growing percentage of enrollees engaged in online learning. Many students and parents, particularly at less prestigious schools, are questioning the cost of higher education. And universities have been losing confidence with a majority of Americans, according to Gallup. Employers-including Google and Elon Musk-are more willing to challenge the validity of degrees. If this trend continues, the whole university structure faces a challenging future. In examining some 442 American universities, NYU marketing professor Scott Galloway estimates that more than 20 percent could fail because of the lockdowns, and that another 30 percent will struggle to stay afloat.
    It would be overly optimistic to imagine that the cultural revolution will fade away of its own accord. A taste for authoritarian solutions, Right or Left, is usually acquired. This is not a liberal or conservative struggle; it is a civilizational one. If nearly 40 percent of young Americans think that the country lacks "a history to be proud of," they won't see anything precious to protect. A civilization can survive only if its members, particularly those with the greatest influence, believe in its basic values.
    Unfortunately, we can't count on our elites in the academy, the media, the corporate hierarchy, or even the clergy to support the core values of American democracy. Not anymore. Only stubborn resistance from the middle and working classes can push back against an assault being largely directed from above. "Happy the nation whose people have not forgotten how to rebel," wrote British historian R. H. Tawney. It's up to Americans everywhere, regardless of their party registration, to put a halt to a cultural revolution that our children may otherwise inherit.
    Joel Kotkin, a City Journal contributing editor, is the Presidential Fellow in Urban Futures at Chapman University and executive director of the Urban Reform Institute. His new book is The Coming of Neo-Feudalism, published by Encounter. Follow him on Twitter @joelkotkin.
    Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images
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    If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

    "A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."