Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners


Quotes of the Day:

"History can be misused to "prove" anything, but it is all that we have as a guide to the future."
- Colin Gray

"Learn from yesterday, live for today, hope for tomorrow. The important thing is not to stop questioning."
- Albert Einstein

"Corruption is the enemy of development, and of good governance. It must be got rid of. Both the government and the people at large must come together to achieve this national objective."
- Pratibha Patil


1. N. Korea fires what seems to be SLBM toward East Sea: S. Korea
2. S. Korean, U.S., Japanese intel chiefs discuss N.K. missile at trilateral meeting
3. NSC expresses 'deep regret' over N. Korea's presumed SLBM test
4.  U.S. envoy for N. Korea to visit Seoul for talks on end-of-war declaration
5. Tough road ahead for end-of-war declaration
6. Factbox: North Korea's submarine-launched missiles
7. US nuclear envoy to visit Seoul this week to discuss ‘end-of-war’ declaration
8. Kim Jong-un Loses of Weight… But North Korean People Are Indifferent
9. S. Korea may decide to own nuclear weapons, says former envoy
10. Kim Jong-un's half-brother was linked with South Korea's spy agency: report
11. N. Korea changes nighttime curfew hours on China-North Korea border
12. N. Korea launches investigation into the "nutritional status" of soldiers
13. S. Korea, EU, Oman hold first anti-piracy exercise around Gulf of Aden
14. Japan PM orders to prepare for emergency scenarios after North Korea's missile tests





1. N. Korea fires what seems to be SLBM toward East Sea: S. Korea
Interesting timing. This was likely added to the agenda for the meeting of the intelligence chiefs from the ROK, Japan, and the US.

Also good timing with the meeting of the nuclear envoys and end of war declaration discussions in Washington. 

This provides a counterpoint to the South Korean defense exhibition taking place this week.

And this seems to be the regime confirming the analysis in the DIA report on north Korean military power that was released last week.

As an aside here is a reprise of my six points for how to respond to events like these:

We should keep in mind that the Kim family regime's political warfare strategy relies heavily on its blackmail diplomacy - the use of increased tension, threats and provocations to gain political and economic concessions. Part of our information and influence strategy should be to counter the criticism that a north Korean provocation is a US and South Korean policy failure. We should make sure the press, pundits, and public understand that this is a fundamental part of north Korean strategy and it conducts provocations for specific objectives. It does not represent a policy failure on our part. I would offer the following framework for consideration:

First, do not overreact. But do not succumb to the criticism of those who recommend ending exercises. And always call out Kim Jong-un's strategy - “ …what is of supreme importance in war is to attack the enemy’s strategy; … next best is to disrupt his alliances.”
Sun Tzu (Sun Tzu, Samuel B; Griffith, Trans. (London: Oxford University Press, 1963), p. 77-78.)

Second, never ever back down in the face of north Korean increased tension, threats, and provocations.

Third, coordinate an alliance response. There may be times when a good cop-bad cop approach is appropriate.  Try to mitigate the internal domestic political criticisms that will inevitably occur in Seoul and DC. Do not let those criticisms negatively influence policy and actions.

Fourth, exploit weakness in north Korea - cause internal pressure on Kim and the regime from his elite and military. Always work to drive a wedge among the party, elite, and military (which is a challenge since they are all intertwined and inextricably linked).

Fifth, demonstrate strength and resolve. Do not be afraid to show military strength. Never misunderstand the north's propaganda - do not give into demands to reduce exercises or take other measures based on north Korean demands that would in any way reduce the readiness of the combined military forces. The north does not want an end to the exercises because they are a threat, they want to weaken the alliance and force the US troops off of the peninsula which will be the result if they are unable to effectively train.

Sixth, depending on the nature of the provocation, be prepared to initiate a decisive response using the most appropriate tools, e.g., diplomatic, military, economic, information and influence activities, cyber, etc. or a combination.


(6th LD) N. Korea fires what seems to be SLBM toward East Sea: S. Korea | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · October 19, 2021
(ATTN: UPDATES with China's response in paras 11-12)
By Song Sang-ho
SEOUL, Oct. 19 (Yonhap) -- North Korea fired what appears to be a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) toward the East Sea on Tuesday, South Korea's military said, in yet another setback to Seoul's drive for peace with Pyongyang.
The short-range missile was launched from waters east of Sinpo, a city on the North's east coast, according to the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS). The launch was detected at 10:17 a.m., it said.
The missile traveled about 590 kilometers at a top altitude of around 60 km, an informed source said, noting the possibility that the North might have used a submarine as a launch platform this time.
The North previously conducted an SLBM test in 2015 and 2019. The South's military believes that it used a barge rather than a submarine during the past tests.
Officials said that Tuesday's launch came after South Korean and U.S. intelligence authorities had detected signs of a possible weapons test near Sinpo, where the North has been pushing to build a 3,200-ton submarine capable of SLBM operations.
"The intelligence authorities of South Korea and the United States are currently conducting a thorough analysis regarding additional details on the missile," the JCS said in a text message sent to reporters.
The North's latest missile test marks its eighth known projectile launch this year. It previously fired a new hypersonic missile, called the Hwasong-8, on Sept. 28.

The U.S. Indo-Pacific Command condemned the missile launch, calling on the North to refrain from "any further destabilizing acts."
"While we have assessed that this event does not pose an immediate threat to U.S. personnel, territory, or that of our allies, we will continue to monitor the situation," the command said in a statement posted on its website.
"The U.S. commitment to the defense of the ROK and Japan remains ironclad," it added, referring to South Korea's official name, the Republic of Korea.
China called for concerned countries to exert "restraint," saying the situation on the Korean Peninsula stands at a critical period.
"Each relevant country should think from a broad perspective, maintain restraint and make efforts to safeguard peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula," Wang Wenbin, a foreign ministry spokesperson, told a regular press briefing.
North Korea watchers cited a possibility that a new, small-sized SLBM, capable of striking targets in the South or Japan, might have been fired from a 2,000-ton submarine on Tuesday. The North displayed a mini-SLBM at a defense exhibition in Pyongyang last week.
"If you look at the launch site and the missile details, the possibility is that it could be a new-type, small SLBM developed with an intention to attack vulnerable areas in the South, such as the rear and sides," Shin Jong-woo, a senior analyst at the Korea Defense Security Forum, said.
In recent years, Pyongyang has boasted its development of various SLBMs, including the "Pukguksong-4ㅅ" and the "Pukguksong-5ㅅ," which were unveiled during military parades in October last year and January, respectively.
The North has been pushing for the SLBM, which experts say would potentially serve as a key nuclear delivery vehicle designed to keep hostile forces at bay during wartime.
The launch came as the top nuclear envoys of the South, the U.S. and Japan are in Washington to discuss joint efforts to bring the North back to dialogue through humanitarian aid and other incentives.
Pyongyang's continued saber-rattling tempered cautious optimism that has emerged since the reactivation of inter-Korean communication channels earlier this month.
In Washington on Tuesday, Seoul's top nuclear envoy, Noh Kyu-duk, and his U.S. and Japanese counterparts, Sung Kim and Takehiro Funakoshi, plan to meet trilaterally to discuss a joint strategy on the North.
On Monday, Noh and Kim met bilaterally and discussed President Moon Jae-in's recent proposal for the declaration of a formal end to the 1950-53 Korean War, which Seoul believes is an effective measure to build confidence with Pyongyang.
The U.S. envoy plans to visit Seoul later this week to further discuss diplomacy toward the North.
sshluck@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · October 19, 2021


2. S. Korean, U.S., Japanese intel chiefs discuss N.K. missile at trilateral meeting

A last minute addition to the agenda!

(LEAD) S. Korean, U.S., Japanese intel chiefs discuss N.K. missile at trilateral meeting | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · October 19, 2021
(ATTN: UPDATES throughout with meeting results, North Korea's missile launch; RECASTS headline, lead; ADDS photo)
By Choi Soo-hyang
SEOUL, Oct. 19 (Yonhap) -- The intelligence chiefs of South Korea, the United States and Japan met here on Tuesday and discussed North Korea's firing of what appeared to be a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) toward the East Sea, Seoul's state spy agency said.
Earlier in the day, North Korea fired the short-range missile from the vicinity of Sinpo, where its main submarine shipyard is located, according to the South Korean military. It marked the North's eighth known major missile test this year.
The North's latest show of force came as Avril Haines, the U.S. director of national intelligence, and Hiroaki Takizawa, Japan's Cabinet intelligence director, were in Seoul for trilateral talks with Park Jie-won, the head of South Korea's National Intelligence Service.
"During the meeting, they had a candid conversation on issues of common interest, including the security situation surrounding the Korean Peninsula," the spy agency said in a release. "The top intel officials also shared information on North Korea's short-range missile launch and assessed the situation."
On Monday, Park held bilateral talks with his U.S. and Japanese counterparts.

The firing came amid a flurry of diplomatic activities to resume the long-stalled denuclearization talks, with top nuclear envoys of South Korea, the U.S. and Japan in Washington to discuss ways for the resumption of dialogue.
During Tuesday's meeting, the three intel chiefs also discussed economic security issues, such as the global supply chain disruptions and tech leakage, and vowed to strengthen their trilateral intelligence cooperation, according to the agency.
The trilateral meeting also drew attention to Tokyo's new policy direction on North Korea, as Takizawa's Seoul visit was his first since Japan's new Prime Minister Fumio Kishida took office earlier this month.
The three last held such a trilateral meeting in May in Tokyo.
Haines is expected to depart from Seoul later in the day, wrapping up her three-day stay here. She had a meeting with Suh Hoon, director of national security at Cheong Wa Dae, on Monday.

scaaet@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 최수향 · October 19, 2021

3.  NSC expresses 'deep regret' over N. Korea's presumed SLBM test

I wonder if the next South Korean administration will be willing to call out and attack the strategy of theKim family regime. Expressing regret is certainly not over reacting but it would be good for the administration to explain to the Korean people the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime. Unfortunately, an accurate description of the regime will undermine the "peace agenda" but it will show the regime does not seek peace int he same way as the Moon administration.

(3rd LD) NSC expresses 'deep regret' over N. Korea's presumed SLBM test | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · October 19, 2021
(ATTN: UPDATES with Cheong Wa Dae official's remark in 7th para; CHANGES lead, headline)
By Lee Haye-ah
SEOUL, Oct. 19 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's presidential National Security Council (NSC) expressed "deep regret" Tuesday over North Korea's presumed test of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) and urged Pyongyang to return to peace talks at an early date.
National security adviser Suh Hoon presided over the 70-minute NSC meeting shortly after the North fired the missile into the East Sea, and was briefed by Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Won In-choul, according to Cheong Wa Dae.
"The council members expressed deep regret that North Korea's launch occurred while active consultations are under way with the United States, China, Japan, Russia and other major countries to advance the Korean Peninsula peace process," it said in a press release.
"The members reaffirmed that stability on the Korean Peninsula is more important than ever and urged North Korea to come forward for dialogue about peace on the Korean Peninsula at an early date," it said.
Cheong Wa Dae initially characterized the North's projectile only as a "short-range ballistic missile."
But the Joint Chiefs of Staff later said what the North fired was believed to be an SLBM. The JCS said earlier that the missile was launched at 10:17 a.m. from a site near Sinpo, where the North's main submarine shipyard is located.
"It appears the JCS determined further details after Cheong Wa Dae issued its press release and made the presumption" it was an SLBM, a key Cheong Wa Dae official told reporters.
Tuesday's launch came as the top nuclear envoys of South Korea, the U.S. and Japan were in Washington to discuss joint efforts to resume talks with Pyongyang, which have largely stalled since February 2019, when a summit between then U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un ended without a deal.
Last month, President Moon Jae-in renewed his call for a declaration formally ending the 1950-53 Korean War as a way to jumpstart peace talks with the North.
"The council members agreed to closely monitor North Korea's actions going forward and come up with necessary measures in swift and close consultation with the United States and other relevant countries," Cheong Wa Dae said.
Besides the national security adviser, other participants in the NSC meeting included Moon's chief of staff You Young-min, Unification Minister Lee In-young, Defense Minister Suh Wook and other top national security officials.

hague@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · October 19, 2021

4.  U.S. envoy for N. Korea to visit Seoul for talks on end-of-war declaration
Again, excellent timing for the alleged SLBM launch. I think Kim may be expressing his views on the end of war declaration.


(2nd LD) U.S. envoy for N. Korea to visit Seoul for talks on end-of-war declaration | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · October 19, 2021
(ATTN: UPDATES with additional remarks, more details; CHANGES headline, lead; ADDS photo)
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, Oct. 18 (Yonhap) -- U.S. Special Representative for North Korea Policy Sung Kim will visit Seoul this week for talks on ways to restart dialogue with the reclusive North, including an end-of-war declaration, the U.S. diplomat said Monday.
Kim's trip to Seoul will follow his meeting with his South Korean and Japanese counterparts, Noh Kyu-duk and Takehiro Funakoshi, respectively, here in Washington this week.
"Special Representative Noh and I also discussed the end of war proposal, and I look forward to continuing those discussions and other issues of mutual concern when I'm in Seoul later this week," the U.S. diplomat said of his meeting with Noh at the State Department.
"Special Representative Noh and I had an excellent meeting this afternoon in advance of tomorrow's trilateral meeting with Japanese Director-General Funakoshi," he added.

South Korean President Moon Jae-in proposed declaring a formal end to the Korean War during the U.N. General Assembly in New York last month as a way of bringing North Korea back to the dialogue table and resuming its denuclearization process.
"A considerable amount of today's discussions were devoted to in-depth discussions on end-of-war declaration," Noh said. "I believe the U.S.' understanding of our end-of-war declaration proposal has deepened through a series of our recent discussions."
The South Korean and U.S. nuclear envoys last met at the end of last month in Jakarta, where Kim is concurrently serving as U.S. ambassador.
North Korea remains unresponsive to U.S. overtures for dialogue and has stayed away from denuclearization talks with the U.S. since 2019.
Noh said he and Kim discussed ways to build trust with North Korea.
"(We) discussed various ways of engagement, such as humanitarian assistance for the North and other trust-building measures to help quickly restart dialogue and diplomacy," the South Korean official said in a joint press event with his U.S. counterpart.
Kim said the U.S. remains open to dialogue with North Korea.
"The U.S. continues to reach out to Pyongyang to restart dialogue. Our intent remains the same. We harbor no hostile intent towards the DPRK, and we are open to meetings without preconditions," he said, referring to North Korea by its official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
"We are prepared to work cooperatively with the DPRK to address areas of humanitarian concern. The U.S. supports the provision of humanitarian aid, consistent with international standards for access and monitoring, to the most vulnerable," Kim added.
Still, the U.S. special representative emphasized the need to maintain international pressure on the North.
"Even as we remain open to dialogue, we also have a responsibility to implement the U.N. Security Council resolutions addressing the DPRK," he said.
"Furthermore, consistent with the Biden-Harris administration's focus on human rights, we will continue to advocate for the human rights of the North Korean people and call for an immediate resolution of the abduction issue," he added, referring to the issue of Japanese nationals believed to have been abducted by the North.
bdk@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · October 19, 2021

5. Tough road ahead for end-of-war declaration
Did Kim Jong-un weigh today with the missile launch?
Tough road ahead for end-of-war declaration
koreaherald.com · by Lee Ji-yoon · October 19, 2021
US, NK testing each other with strategic patience: expert
Published : Oct 19, 2021 - 15:36 Updated : Oct 19, 2021 - 15:36
President Moon Jae-in delivers a keynote speech at the UN General Assembly in New York on Sept. 21.(Cheong Wa Dae)
There will be no immediate breakthrough in the ongoing discussions toward an end-of-war declaration without a change of attitude not just from North Korea, but also from the US, experts here said Tuesday.

President Moon Jae-in proposed declaring a formal end to the 1950-53 Korean War in his UN speech last month, a last-ditch effort to resume stalled diplomacy with North Korea before he leaves office in May.

Seoul officials have held a series of high-level meetings in recent weeks, wooing support for the proposal from the US and other countries. Even North Korea hinted at its intention to join the talks despite its confusing messages: back-to-back missile tests interspersed with reconciliatory gestures.

Early Tuesday, the still nascent talks appeared to be gaining fresh momentum, with the US showing renewed interest in the proposal.

US Special Representative for North Korea Policy Sung Kim told reporters he would visit Seoul later this week to discuss the end-of-war proposal. It was the first time a ranking US official had talked publicly about related talks happening between the two countries.

The remarks came after he met in Washington with his South Korean counterpart, Noh Kyu-duk, who said “a considerable amount of today’s discussions” had been devoted to the end-of-war declaration.

Kim also reiterated that his government has no hostile intent toward North Korea and is ready for dialogue without preconditions.

But just hours later, North Korea poured cold water on the cautious hopes of resuming dialogue by launching another missile test -- the fifth over the past month alone.

Seoul’s National Security Council expressed “deep regret” over the launch of what appeared to be a submarine-launched short-range ballistic missile.

“Both the US and North Korea are testing each other with strategic patience,” said Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul.

The professor said he found nothing new in the US nuclear envoy’s remarks on the end-of-war declaration, saying the intent appeared to be managing the Korean Peninsula situation and preventing further provocations from the North, rather than seeking an immediate resolution to the stalled talks.

“North Korea would not return to the negotiating table unless the US comes up with more concrete offers like security assurance and sanctions relief, the commitments made at the Singapore summit,” he added.

North Korea’s two-pronged strategy -- alternating between raising tensions and extending an olive branch -- has often produced false hopes of reconciliation. But South Korea seems eager to exploit the rare opportunities to engage the reclusive regime this time.

Seoul, in particular, is pinning high hopes on an end-of-war declaration, calling it the most effective way of starting the trust-building process with the North.

“It is not our ultimate goal but the starting point of resuming the inter-Korean talks,” a Cheong Wa Dae official said on condition of anonymity. “Of course, related talks cannot be made separately from denuclearization talks with North Korea.”

The US has expressed its full support for the resumption of inter-Korean dialogue but has remained mum over the possibility of an end-of-war declaration. Despite the purely political nature of the act, such a declaration could lead to talks toward a peace treaty. That would involve more complicated, legally binding discussions with US archrival China as well as North Korea.

The US has urged North Korea to return to the negotiating table without preconditions. But North Korea has said it would not resume talks until it was convinced that the US was ready to scrap its “hostile policy,” including the joint military drills with South Korea.

In the meantime, nuclear envoys from South Korea, the US and Japan met again in Washington this week, with their discussions on humanitarian aid to North Korea nearing completion.

It remains to be seen whether North Korea responds to a new proposal from the allies. The North has rejected earlier overtures from the South, which suggested humanitarian aid or a COVID-19 partnership, saying those things are “not essential” to restore the soured relationship.

By Lee Ji-yoon (jylee@heraldcorp.com)

6. Factbox: North Korea's submarine-launched missiles

Factbox: North Korea's submarine-launched missiles
Reuters · by Reuters
People watch a TV broadcasting file footage of a news report on North Korea firing a ballistic missile off its east coast, in Seoul, South Korea, October 19, 2021. REUTERS/Kim Hong-Ji
SEOUL, Oct 19 (Reuters) - North Korea test fired what appeared to be a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) on Tuesday, South Korea said.
It would be the latest step in nuclear-armed North Korea's efforts to field SLBMs, which are seen as a potent nuclear deterrent because they can be difficult to detect or destroy.
Analysts and officials in South Korea believe the country is building an operational ballistic missile submarine.
Here are the SLBMs that North Korea has displayed or tested, usually from submersible barges rather than from a submarine.
PUKGUKSONG-1
Starting in 2014, North Korea has conducted five flight tests of the KN-11, and well as numerous other tests of the missile's ejection mechanism and other subsystems, according to the U.S.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Several of the first tests appeared to fail, before a first successful test in 2016.
Analysts estimated the missile's range to be about 1,200 kilometres.
North Korea has also test fired a Pukguksong-2, considered a land-based variant of the Pukguksong-1.
PUKGUKSONG-3
Before Tuesday, North Korea's last SLBM test was in October 2019, when a Pukguksong-3 missile was fired from an underwater platform, flying 450km to a maximum altitude of 910km.
Like its predecessor, the Pukguksong-3 appears to have two stages powered by solid fuel.
The missile has "a cold-launch" system that uses pressurized gas to eject it from a submarine or other launch tube.
"After surfacing, the missile ejects its rear engine cover and ignites its main booster," CSIS says in a summary of the Pukguksong-3.
PUKGUKSONG-4
At a military parade in October 2020, North Korea unveiled a previously unseen SLBM that was dubbed the Pukguksong-4.
It appeared to be about the same size as the Pukguksong-3, and its capabilities remain unclear.
"If the new SLBM is intended to be deployed, it may be intended for the new conventionally powered ballistic missile submarine that North Korea hinted at building in July 2019," analysts at the U.S.-based 38 North programme, which tracks North Korea, said at the time.
PUKGUKSONG-5
Another previously unseen SLBM, designated the Pukguksong-5, was displayed at a military parade in January.
Few details on its capabilities could be gleaned from its outward appearance, and its dimensions appeared to be comparable to earlier designs, 38 North said in a report.
"These dimensional similarities indicate North Korea is still in the process of settling on a specific design for its next-generation SLBM," it said.
MYSTERY MISSILE
At an unusual military show opened in Pyongyang last week, North Korea displayed a previously unseen missile next to its other SLBMs.
The mystery missile is smaller than its other SLBMs, potentially presenting an easier pathway to an operational ballistic missile submarine, analysts said. South Korea has recently demonstrated a conventional SLBM launched from a submarine.
Reporting by Josh Smith. Editing by Gerry Doyle
Reuters · by Reuters

7. US nuclear envoy to visit Seoul this week to discuss ‘end-of-war’ declaration

I think we should pay close attention to Ambassador Kim's statements here. These four statements really provide the foundation for US policy. I would just add that the Biden Administration is really giving KimJong-un the opportunity to act as a responsible member of the international community. But today's alleged SLBM missile launch seems to indicate that he has no intention of doing so.

“The US continues to reach out to Pyongyang to restart dialogue. Our intent remains the same. We harbor no hostile intent toward the DPRK, and we are open to meetings without preconditions,” said Kim, referring to North Korea by its official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

The envoy said the US is prepared to work cooperatively with the North to address areas of humanitarian concern.

“The US supports the provision of humanitarian aid, consistent with international standards for access and monitoring, to the most vulnerable,” he said.

But in the meantime, he said, the US would continue to implement the UN Security Council resolutions against North Korea and bring up human rights concerns.

“Even as we remain open to dialogue, we also have a responsibility to implement the UN Security Council resolutions addressing the DPRK,” he said.

The UN Security Council has imposed sanctions over the North’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs.

“Furthermore, consistent with the Biden-Harris administration’s focus on human rights, we will continue to advocate for the human rights of the North Korean people and call for an immediate resolution of the abduction issue,” he said, referring to the abduction of Japanese nationals by North Korea in the 1970s and 1980s.

US nuclear envoy to visit Seoul this week to discuss ‘end-of-war’ declaration
koreaherald.com · by Ahn Sung-mi · October 19, 2021
Published : Oct 19, 2021 - 15:30 Updated : Oct 19, 2021 - 19:00
Sung Kim, US special representative for North Korea, speaks to reporters after the meeting with South Korea`s nuclear envoy, Noh Kyu-duk in Washington on Monday. (AFP-Yonhap)

Washington’s point man on North Korea, Sung Kim, said Monday that he will visit Seoul later this week to discuss ways to bring Pyongyang back to the dialogue, and that declaring an official end to the Korean War will be part of the agenda.

Kim, the US special representative on North Korea, revealed his plans after talks with South Korea’s chief nuclear envoy, Noh Kyu-duk, in Washington on Monday, ahead of a three-way meeting Tuesday with their Japanese counterpart, Takehiro Funakoshi.

The Foreign Ministry confirmed his visit, saying Kim is set to hold bilateral talks with Noh on Saturday, discussing pending issues surrounding the Korean Peninsula, including South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s proposal to formally declare an end to the Korean War 1950-53.

But as the allies ramp up diplomacy, the North poured fired what appears to be a submarine-launched ballistic missile into the East Sea on Tuesday, in a continuation of recent weapons launches. By alternating between conciliatory gestures and shows of force, Pyongyang’s is seen as attempting to build up its nuclear deterrent while pressing Seoul to take action in its favor, such as convincing Washington to ease sanctions.

Kim said he and Noh discussed the end-of-war proposal during their meeting, marking the first time a senior US official had mentioned publicly that the related talks are underway between the two countries.

“I look forward to continuing those discussions and other issues of mutual concern when I am in Seoul later this week,” Kim told reporters after the meeting at the State Department.

“Through a series of our recent discussions, I believe the US’ understanding of our end-of-war declaration proposal has deepened,” Noh told reporters, adding a substantial part of the meeting had been allotted to “in-depth discussions on the end-of-war declaration.

The two Koreas are technically still at war, as the Korean War resulted not in a peace treaty, but in an armistice agreement signed by the US-led United Nations Command, China and North Korea.

In recent weeks, President Moon has been pushing for an end-of-war declaration -- something he has supported throughout his presidency -- arguing that such a declaration could encourage Pyongyang to give up its nuclear arsenal.

On Monday, the US diplomat repeated calls for dialogue with the North, despite the regime’s continued rejection of Washington’s diplomatic overtures.

“The US continues to reach out to Pyongyang to restart dialogue. Our intent remains the same. We harbor no hostile intent toward the DPRK, and we are open to meetings without preconditions,” said Kim, referring to North Korea by its official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

The envoy said the US is prepared to work cooperatively with the North to address areas of humanitarian concern.

“The US supports the provision of humanitarian aid, consistent with international standards for access and monitoring, to the most vulnerable,” he said.

But in the meantime, he said, the US would continue to implement the UN Security Council resolutions against North Korea and bring up human rights concerns.

“Even as we remain open to dialogue, we also have a responsibility to implement the UN Security Council resolutions addressing the DPRK,” he said.

The UN Security Council has imposed sanctions over the North’s nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs.

“Furthermore, consistent with the Biden-Harris administration’s focus on human rights, we will continue to advocate for the human rights of the North Korean people and call for an immediate resolution of the abduction issue,” he said, referring to the abduction of Japanese nationals by North Korea in the 1970s and 1980s.


By Ahn Sung-mi (sahn@heraldcorp.com)


8. Kim Jong-un Loses of Weight… But North Korean People Are Indifferent


Excerpts:

After returning from South Korea, I asked some of my reporting partners in the northern part of the country what they thought about the "drastic weight loss," and they told me that the propaganda that "General Kim Jong-un has lost weight because of his hard work" had just started. Here is what a woman in her 30s had to say. She referred to Jong-un by his name, by the way.

"Recently, a project to educate the public about the greatness of Jong-un has been launched in the community and workplace every Saturday. It says that he is a great man and that he has single-handedly defeated all the powerful countries. In addition, a campaign to 'send letters to General Kim Jong-un praying for his health and pledging allegiance' was started, saying that his sudden weight loss was due to his daily hard work for the people.

This is an event where groups and individuals write and read letters that say, 'The General's peace is our happiness.' I don't know if the letters will reach Jong-un, but I don't think anyone cares (about his weight loss).

Why should we worry about him when we eat well and not lose weight due to hardship? We are worried every day about how we are going to make ends meet. We are preoccupied with making even the smallest amount of money from our business."

The perception of the other reporting partners was similar. They were so busy with their daily lives that they didn't seem to care about Jong-un's health problems. It is unclear whether the "drastic weight loss" is due to the "government diet" or not, but there is no doubt that South Koreans and Japanese are more concerned about Jong-un's weight than the ordinary people in North Korea.

Kim Jong-un Loses of Weight… But North Korean People Are Indifferent
(Photo) Kim Jong-un looks a little more refreshed after losing weight. (Rodong-shinmun)
I visited South Korea for a month from the end of August. It has been a year and seven months since my last visit. In Seoul, where the weather was crisp and clear, I had several opportunities to exchange opinions with North Korean experts in between interviews. Unfortunately, many of them told me that they had almost no idea what was happening in North Korea. This is because the Kim Jong-un regime has imposed a state lockdown to prevent the influx of the coronavirus, which has almost completely cut off all foreign communication, and information has dried up.
Surprisingly, there was a lot of interest among experts in Kim Jong-un's "drastic weight loss." It is unclear whether it is due to deteriorating health or dieting, but South Korean intelligence officials believe he has lost 20 to 30 kilograms from 140 kilograms.
One of the researchers asked how the "drastic weight loss" of the leader is perceived in North Korea. He pointed out that while the economy is paralyzed by a coronavirus and the people are suffering from poverty, it is awful that only Kim Jong-un is super-obese. He said that Kim Jong-un might be on a "national diet" as a measure to counter the popular sentiment. Well, that's a point of view I hadn't noticed before.
This December 17 marks the tenth year since the death of Kim Jong-il and the tenth year of the Kim Jong-un era, who was born in January 1984 and assumed power at the age of 27. At first, North Korean society was filled with contempt, saying, "What can a young man do?" "He is still a kid."
Over the next decade, Jong-un's physique ballooned as he gained experience in the dictatorial rule. However, it was not until this spring that he began to lose weight when the economic turmoil deepened.
After returning from South Korea, I asked some of my reporting partners in the northern part of the country what they thought about the "drastic weight loss," and they told me that the propaganda that "General Kim Jong-un has lost weight because of his hard work" had just started. Here is what a woman in her 30s had to say. She referred to Jong-un by his name, by the way.
"Recently, a project to educate the public about the greatness of Jong-un has been launched in the community and workplace every Saturday. It says that he is a great man and that he has single-handedly defeated all the powerful countries. In addition, a campaign to 'send letters to General Kim Jong-un praying for his health and pledging allegiance' was started, saying that his sudden weight loss was due to his daily hard work for the people.
This is an event where groups and individuals write and read letters that say, 'The General's peace is our happiness.' I don't know if the letters will reach Jong-un, but I don't think anyone cares (about his weight loss).
Why should we worry about him when we eat well and not lose weight due to hardship? We are worried every day about how we are going to make ends meet. We are preoccupied with making even the smallest amount of money from our business."
The perception of the other reporting partners was similar. They were so busy with their daily lives that they didn't seem to care about Jong-un's health problems. It is unclear whether the "drastic weight loss" is due to the "government diet" or not, but there is no doubt that South Koreans and Japanese are more concerned about Jong-un's weight than the ordinary people in North Korea.

9. S. Korea may decide to own nuclear weapons, says former envoy
It has taken a while for the Donga Ilbo to follow-up on Ambassador DeTrani's September 28th article.

S. Korea may decide to own nuclear weapons, says former envoy
Posted October. 19, 2021 07:26,
Updated October. 19, 2021 07:26
S. Korea may decide to own nuclear weapons, says former envoy. October. 19, 2021 07:26. lightee@donga.com.
Joseph DeTrani, a former special envoy of the U.S. for Six-Party Talks with North Korea, warned that if North Korea is allowed to retain its nuclear weapons, South Korea, Japan, and others in the region may also decide to own them. He argued that countries, such as North Korea and Iran, and terrorist organizations should be banned from having nuclear power to prevent global nuclear proliferation.

In his article published on U.S. political media The Hill, DeTrani analyzed the meaning of the death of Abdul Qadeer Khan, a national hero in Pakistan who was the architect of Pakistan’s nuclear bomb program, and emphasized that his death doesn't stop the threat of nuclear proliferation. “Iran, North Korea and Libya aggressively pursued a relationship with Khan,” said the special envoy after explaining Khan’s nuclear development activities. He claimed that unlike Libya, which eventually abandoned its pursuit of nuclear weapons, Iran and North Korea have persisted with their programs.

“North Korea has conducted six nuclear tests and continues to reprocess spent fuel rods for plutonium for nuclear weapons. They are assessed to have between 40 to 60 nuclear weapons,” said DeTrani. He also added that although North Korea has never admitted to having a highly enriched uranium program for weapons, it does have a declared modern uranium enrichment facility in Yongbyon, reportedly with thousands of spinning centrifuges. The special envoy mentioned that North Korea reportedly supported Syria in the construction of a nuclear reactor in Al-Kibar and Al Qaeda reportedly attempted to acquire nuclear weapons and fissile materials from North Korea.

‘If North Korea is permitted to retain its nuclear weapons, South Korea, Japan and others in the region may decide that, despite U.S. nuclear deterrence commitments, they need their own nuclear weapons,” He added that if Iran pursues a nuclear weapons program, it’s likely that countries such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkey will pursue their own nuclear weapons programs.

10. Kim Jong-un's half-brother was linked with South Korea's spy agency: report

Always more to the story. I wonder how important his information actually was.


Kim Jong-un's half-brother was linked with South Korea's spy agency: report
The Korea Times · October 19, 2021
Kim Jong-nam / YonhapBy Yoon Ja-young

Kim Jong-nam, the half-brother of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, who was murdered in Malaysia in 2017, was linked to South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS), according to a report by South Korean broadcaster SBS, Tuesday.
SBS reported that it had confirmed from a number of former and current NIS officers that Kim Jong-nam had been providing information on top North Korean officials including Kim Jong-un for at least five to six years before he was killed.

The estranged half-brother was the eldest son of former North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, and was once regarded as the heir apparent to the regime. However, he lost his father's trust after he was involved in a series of problematic incidents, including trying to enter Japan on a false passport in 2001. At that time, he said he was attempting to visit the Tokyo Disneyland; and since then, he had been living in Macau, and traveling to other countries.

In February 2017, Kim was in Kuala Lumpur International Airport when two young women ― one from Indonesia and the other from Vietnam ― suddenly approached him and smeared the lethal XV chemical agent on his face. He died within an hour, and the brazen attack that occurred in broad daylight among a large crowd shocked the world.

According to SBS, NIS agents contacted Kim in "third-countries," and provided him with monetary compensation.

The report added that the NIS had basic information on Kim's whereabouts and that he sometimes directly contacted the spy agency through email.

At the time, there was speculation that Kim might have been seeking asylum in South Korea, but SBS reported that the former and current officer whom it contacted dismissed this, saying it would have put a considerable burden on inter-Korean relations.


The Korea Times · October 19, 2021


11. N. Korea changes nighttime curfew hours on China-North Korea border


From a 9 hour to a 13 hour curfew. But the real headline should be the subtitle.


N. Korea changes nighttime curfew hours on China-North Korea border - Daily NK
“Residents of the border region are suffering indescribable food shortages due to the prolonged coronavirus pandemic,” a source told Daily NK

By Lee Chae Un - 2021.10.19 12:41pm
dailynk.com · October 19, 2021
North Korea recently changed the hours of its nighttime curfew along the Sino-North Korean border, with violators being arrested and sent to forced labor brigades.
The new curfew hours are from 6 PM to 7 AM, with the old hours being 8 PM to 5 AM.
A source in North Hamgyong Province told Daily NK on Monday that the authorities greatly intensified their clamp down and punishment of curfew-breakers since changing the curfew hours on Oct. 1. He said about 60 people so far have been sent to forced labor brigades for violating the new curfew.
Daily NK reported on Oct. 6 that North Korea changed its nighttime curfew (article in Korean) along the Sino-North Korean border from Oct. 1 ahead of the winter season.
According to the source, since the curfew change on Oct. 1, the authorities have been dragging off people caught outside past 6 PM to forced labor brigades, regardless of their excuses.
Most of those busted were merchants in markets or alleyways. These people broke curfew to earn more for their families — even if just a penny more — despite threatened “legal punishments” by the authorities.
A sentry post on the Sino-North Korean border in Sakju County, North Pyongan Province. / Image: Daily NK
However, law enforcement authorities are still dragging them off to forced labor brigades, ostensibly because they must “unconditionally execute orders from the Central Committee,” the source said.
North Korea implemented the same level of punishments for curfew-related infractions last year as well.
However, the number of locals actually subjected to forced labor for breaking curfew has more than quadrupled from the same period last year, based on the situation in Hoeryong as of Oct. 15. This also suggests more people are engaging in at least a bit of commerce outdoors.
“People living in the border region are suffering indescribable food shortages due to the prolonged coronavirus pandemic,” said the source. “However, the leadership is not taking measures [to alleviate this suffering] by providing food distributions. Instead, they are taking only deplorable measures that make people’s lives worse.”
The source said people sent to Hoeryong’s forced labor brigade spend between 15 and 30 days there. He added that the authorities do not provide food, with laborers forced to rely on boxed meals provided by their families.
Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
dailynk.com · October 19, 2021

12. N. Korea launches investigation into the "nutritional status" of soldiers

Beans, beans...the more you eat...

The buried lede - note the reference to the upcoming winter training cycle.

Excerpts:
The interim inspection appears aimed at resolving soldiers’ nutrition issues ahead of the winter training period as part of efforts to maximize military strength.
Accordingly, the Ministry of Defense’s relevant departments, including the Provisions Bureau, Clothing Bureau, General Logistics Bureau and Military Health Bureau, have been quick to act. Seven-person inspection teams sent to each military unit have been carrying out their duties since Oct. 12.


N. Korea launches investigation into the "nutritional status" of soldiers - Daily NK
It is evidently the first time that the military will examine bean supplies and inspect how frequently beans are served

By Jeong Tae Joo - 2021.10.19 1:05pm
dailynk.com · October 19, 2021
North Korean military authorities have launched an investigation of the “nutritional status” of soldiers ahead of the winter training period, which lasts from December to March.
According to a Daily NK source in the North Korean military yesterday, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un issued an order on Oct. 9 calling for improvements in “logistics and soldiers’ health” during October and November. This is the period when the military is preparing for the winter months and for winter training.
The General Political Bureau and Ministry of Defense have responded with a joint inspection of the state of training preparation and logistical readiness, including wintertime food supplies, within all branches of the military, along with the state of “frailty” among soldiers due to malnutrition.
Kim has stressed “autonomous solutions” to soldiers’ “nutritional issues” since handing down an order in May for the establishment of convalescent hospitals to treat soldiers suffering from malnutrition. The hospitals were established following a joint report by the Ministry of Defense’s logistics department and military medical department warning of significant numbers of soldiers missing training due to serious malnutrition issues.
The interim inspection appears aimed at resolving soldiers’ nutrition issues ahead of the winter training period as part of efforts to maximize military strength.
Accordingly, the Ministry of Defense’s relevant departments, including the Provisions Bureau, Clothing Bureau, General Logistics Bureau and Military Health Bureau, have been quick to act. Seven-person inspection teams sent to each military unit have been carrying out their duties since Oct. 12.
North Korean soldiers walking near Sinuiju, North Pyongan Province. / Image: Daily NK
The teams must complete their reports by late November, examining the “rations issue” at their units and weighing soldiers. To deal with the “rations issue,” the teams are checking if units provide their soldiers with bean powder mixed in water three times a day and pureed soybean soup four times a week.
This is reportedly the first time ever that the military has announced it will closely examine bean supplies and inspect how frequently beans are served. This suggests the authorities are urgently trying to remove a major impediment to military readiness, given the important role the military plays in weapons development and constructing national facilities.
The authorities also plan to implement “working-level measures” to allow the military to resolve logistical problems through “self-reliance” and continue fixing these issues into the winter training period.
North Korean soldiers say, however, that individual units cannot solve food shortages on their own. For example, soldiers at the April 24 Training Ground have been farming plots for the past two years, but bean harvests have been poor. Accordingly, the amount of beans they can send to the newly established convalescent hospitals is also insufficient.
No part of the North Korean military can ignore the lack of food. Not only have the inspections been personally ordered by Kim Jong Un, but there are also rumors that the North Korean leader’s powerful sister, Kim Yo Jong, will be scrutinizing food supply problems “until the very end.”
“With the start of the inspection, the price of beans has skyrocketed in the markets of Chongju, North Pyongan Province, where the April 25 Training Ground is located,” said the source. “As recently as Oct. 5, beans were KPW 4,300 a kilogram. Now they’ve shot up to KPW 5,000 a kilogram.”
Accordingly, the price of bean curd and bean sprouts have also climbed, making it even more difficult for locals to afford these items, added the source.
Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
dailynk.com · October 19, 2021
13. S. Korea, EU, Oman hold first anti-piracy exercise around Gulf of Aden

South Korea: A globally engaged actor as a middle power.

S. Korea, EU, Oman hold first anti-piracy exercise around Gulf of Aden | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 강윤승 · October 19, 2021
SEOUL, Oct. 19 (Yonhap) -- South Korea, the European Union and Oman have held their first combined anti-piracy exercise in waters around the Gulf of Aden, the defense ministry said Tuesday.
On Monday, the Korean Navy's 4,400-ton destroyer Chungmugong Yi Sun-shin joined the exercise with the EU's warship, Victoria, and the Maritime Security Center of Oman, the ministry said.
The exercise took place along the International Recommended Transit Corridor, a shipping route through the Gulf of Aden patrolled by international naval forces.
The exercise involved helicopter landing operations, live-fire drills, and search and rescue missions -- all required for anti-piracy maneuvers.
"All participants are making continued efforts to maintain the rules-based international order, freedom of navigation and overflight, regional prosperity, and stability and security," the ministry said in a press release.
The exercise came as the EU has been stepping up anti-piracy efforts under its "Operation Atalanta."

colin@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 강윤승 · October 19, 2021


14. Japan PM orders to prepare for emergency scenarios after North Korea's missile tests


Japan PM orders to prepare for emergency scenarios after North Korea's missile tests


Last Updated: 19th October, 2021 13:13 IST
Following reports that North Korea had fired a ballistic missile, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has directed officials to make emergency preparations.
Written By

Image: AP


Following reports that North Korea had fired a ballistic missile, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida directed Japanese agencies to collect data on the occurrence and make emergency preparations. As per the reports of Sputnik, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida has directed the appropriate ministries to take action in three areas, first to ensure data collection and analysis, as well as the early public notification, second to assure navigation and air transport safety, and third to prepare for emergency scenarios. The South Korean military had previously stated that North Korea had fired an unidentified projectile into the Sea of Japan. The decision, according to the Yonhap News Agency, might hinder South Korea's efforts to restart talks with its neighbour. This follows North Korea's test of a hypersonic missile earlier this month.
Two ballistic missiles have been identified, according to Kishida, who postponed campaign appearances in northern Japan. The deputy chief cabinet secretary said that Kishida planned to return to Tokyo to deal with the missile crisis. The South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff provided no quick explanation for the disparity in missile detection numbers. Daily routine liaison conversations with the North were handled normally on Tuesday, according to South Korea's unification ministry, which handles inter-Korean relations.
Kim Dong-yup, a professor at Kyungnam University's Far East Institute in Seoul and a former South Korean Navy officer, said that the latest test utilised one of the recently unveiled Submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM), according to Arab News. During military parades in October and January, the North unveiled new Pukguksong-4 and Pukguksong-5 SLBMs, respectively, while a previously unseen smaller missile was glimpsed at Pyongyang's defence fair last week.
North Korea may be restarting military and international affairs
According to Chad O'Carroll, CEO of Korea Risk Group, a number of recent launches, as well as the launching of Pyongyang's unusual military show indicates that North Korea may be restarting military and international affairs after nearly two years of focusing inward amid the COVID-19 outbreak, according to Arab News. He stated in a tweet that North Korea's continued missile tests signal that the worst of domestic hardship between summer 2020 and summer 2021 may be passed. He further said that because Pyongyang tends to concentrate on a single major strategic issue at a time, the increased testing could indicate that military, rather than foreign policy, is now the priority.
North Korea's renewed testing of ballistic missiles suggests the worst of domestic hardship between summer 2020-2021 could be over.

Pyongyang tends to focus on one big strategic issue at a time, so the renewed testing could suggest military – later foreign policy – now priority.
— Chad O'Carroll (@chadocl) October 19, 2021
(Inputs from ANI)
Image: AP

First Published: 19th October, 2021 13:13 IST




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David Maxwell
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Foundation for Defense of Democracies
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FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."
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