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Quotes of the Day:
"Innovators and creative geniuses cannot be reared in schools. They are precisely the men who defy what the school has taught them."
- Ludwig von Mises
“The best teachers are those who show you where to look, but don't tell you what to see.”
- Alexandra K. Trenfor
"A good teacher is one who can understand those who are not very good at explaining, and explain to those who are not very good at understanding."
- Dwight D. Eisenhower
I think due to the back to back Korean holidays (from Chuseok to Foundation Day) most Korean reporting has been limited with the major focus on the Asian Games.
1. Unification minister says N.K.'s vicious cycle of provocations, rewards 'no longer works' under Yoon administration
2. N. Korea slams IAEA's adoption of resolution on Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program
3. U.S. calls on China to encourage N. Korea's return to diplomacy
4. [INTERVIEW] It is premature to revise ROK-US mutual defense treaty: veterans' group head
5. Irate North Korea players attack Asian Games ref after quarter-final loss
6. Joe Biden Should Fear the North Korea - Russia Alliance
7. Is There Any Chance North Korea Will Ever Give Up Its Nuclear Weapons?
8.
1. Unification minister says N.K.'s vicious cycle of provocations, rewards 'no longer works' under Yoon administration
How long has this been going on you ask? Like... forever. Or at least the last 7 decades. The Minster wants to make Kim tear up the Kim family regime playbook. If you take away these "plays" Kim will have nothing.
Unification minister says N.K.'s vicious cycle of provocations, rewards 'no longer works' under Yoon administration | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Yi Wonju · October 2, 2023
BERLIN, Oct. 2 (Yonhap) -- Unification Minister Kim Yung-ho has warned that North Korea's vicious cycle of receiving assistance and breaking off agreements will "no longer work" under the current administration of President Yoon Suk Yeol.
Kim made the remarks at a conference hosted by the Berlin chapter of the Peaceful Unification Advisory Council on Sunday (local time), stressing that North Korea's nuclear threat has persisted for 30 years.
"Whenever North Korea has threatened with various provocations, dialogue has occurred, and after countries have engaged in this dialogue and provided assistance to the North, the country ends up breaking off the agreement and turning its back," he said.
"Such wrong behavior will no longer work," he added, emphasizing that the Yoon administration has made it clear it will respond to North Korea's provocations based on principle.
Kim is currently on a seven-day trip to Britain and Germany. On Tuesday, he is set to visit Hamburg to attend a ceremony marking the reunification of Germany in 1990 and meet government officials to gain support for Seoul's policy goal of building a reunified Korean Peninsula.
Unification Minister Kim Yung-ho attends a conference hosted by the Berlin chapter of the Peaceful Unification Advisory Council in Germany on Oct. 1, 2023. (Yonhap)
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Yi Wonju · October 2, 2023
2. N. Korea slams IAEA's adoption of resolution on Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program
Some great rhetoric here:
"We vehemently denounce and reject the abnormal behavior of the IAEA which has been completely reduced to a reptile organization that serves the U.S. away from its elementary mission as an international organization to maintain impartiality,"
N. Korea slams IAEA's adoption of resolution on Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Yi Wonju · October 2, 2023
SEOUL, Oct. 2 (Yonhap) -- North Korea on Monday denounced the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) for criticizing Pyongyang's nuclear development, calling it a "conspiracy between the U.S. and its followers."
At the 67th IAEA General Conference in Vienna, Austria, last week, IAEA member states adopted a resolution urging the recalcitrant regime to suspend its nuclear weapons program and abide by its obligations under U.N. Security Council resolutions.
"We vehemently denounce and reject the abnormal behavior of the IAEA which has been completely reduced to a reptile organization that serves the U.S. away from its elementary mission as an international organization to maintain impartiality," a spokesperson for the North's nuclear power ministry said in a press statement carried by the official Korean Central News Agency.
Stressing that North Korea withdrew from the nuclear agency in 1994, he said the IAEA has "neither qualifications nor justification to say this or that" over the North's exercise of sovereignty.
"As long as tyrannical nuclear weapons of the U.S. and imperialist aggression forces exist on this land, the DPRK's position as a nuclear weapons state will remain unchanged and the DPRK will never tolerate the hostile forces' acts of infringing upon its sovereignty," he added, referring to the North by its official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
The spokesperson then took aim at IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi, slamming him for creating an "atmosphere of pressurizing the DPRK" and "spreading a false story" about an imminent seventh nuclear test to "flatter the U.S. and the West."
"As long as tyrannical nuclear weapons of the U.S. and imperialist aggression forces exist on this land, the DPRK's position as a nuclear weapons state will remain unchanged and the DPRK will never tolerate the hostile forces' acts of infringing upon its sovereignty," he added.
This file photo, provided by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on Sept. 8, 2023, shows North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (2nd from L) attending a ceremony on Sept. 6 to launch a newly built "tactical nuclear attack submarine." (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
julesyi@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Yi Wonju · October 2, 2023
3. U.S. calls on China to encourage N. Korea's return to diplomacy
What incentive does China have to try to influence the north to return to diplomacy? What can China do? What would it be willing to do? What would it do for China if the north returned to diplomacy?
U.S. calls on China to encourage N. Korea's return to diplomacy | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · October 3, 2023
By Song Sang-ho
WASHINGTON, Oct. 2 (Yonhap) -- The United States has called on China to use its influence to encourage North Korea to take steps for de-escalation and return to diplomacy, the State Department said Monday.
Spokesperson Matthew Miller made the remarks amid expectations that an anticipated summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Beijing this month would lead to a strengthening of cooperation among the two countries and North Korea.
"One of the things that we have urged in our conversations with Chinese officials -- something Secretary Blinken urged and other officials have urged -- is that China is uniquely positioned to use its influence with the DPRK to urge the DPRK to take de-escalatory steps and to urge the DPRK to return to diplomacy," he told a press briefing.
DPRK stands for the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
"We will continue to encourage them to use that influence to any degree that is possible that they are willing to do," he added.
Xi and Putin are expected to meet on the margins of an international forum on the Belt and Road initiative, a massive China-led infrastructure project, this month, after Putin met with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at a Russian spaceport on Sept. 13.
The anticipated meeting would come as the U.S. has been strengthening trilateral security cooperation with its core Asian allies of South Korea and Japan in the midst of North Korea's evolving military threats, China's growing assertiveness and Russia's war in Ukraine.
Miller reiterated Washington's worries about deepening cooperation between Russia and the North.
"We continue to be concerned about increased ties between Russia and North Korea, especially when it comes to any potential transfer of weapons either from the DPRK to Russia or from Russia to the DPRK," he said.
State Department Press Secretary Matthew Miller is seen answering questions during a daily press briefing at the state department in Washington on Sept. 12, 2023 in this captured image. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
sshluck@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · October 3, 2023
4. [INTERVIEW] It is premature to revise ROK-US mutual defense treaty: veterans' group head
The mutual defense treaty is pasted below the article for review. What about this treaty needs to be revised?
Excerpts:
“As the security environment is in a constant state of change, it is fair to suggest that we should consider including up-to-date elements such as economic security, space alliance, advanced technologies and other updates into the treaty,” Choi said.
“However, it's worth noting that there have been no significant issues with the existing language over the past seven decades. This is because we have supplemented it with other documents and agreements."
[INTERVIEW] It is premature to revise ROK-US mutual defense treaty: veterans' group head
The Korea Times · by 2023-10-01 07:52 | Foreign Affairs · October 2, 2023
Korea Defense Veterans Association (KDVA) Korea Chapter President Choi Byung-hyuk speaks during an interview with The Korea Times in his office at the War Memorial of Korea in Yongsan District, Seoul, Sept. 12. Courtesy of KDVA Korea Chapter
Ex-deputy chief of Combined Forces Command emphasizes trust is at heart of bilateral coalition
Editor’s note
This article is the third in a series of interviews to highlight the significance of the ROK-US alliance on the occasion of the 70th anniversary of the Mutual Defense Treaty, signed on Oct. 1, 1953, in the aftermath of the 1950-53 Korean War. ― ED.
By Nam Hyun-woo
Seventy years have passed since South Korea and the United States signed the 1953 Mutual Defense Treaty, which serves as the foundation of their alliance.
However, the treaty has never been updated since its signing, even though risks surrounding the alliance have mounted at a daunting speed.
In recent years, there have been calls to update and clarify the treaty, but military experts, including Korea Defense Veterans Association (KDVA) Korea Chapter President Choi Byung-hyuk, believe that this is not the right time to initiate such debates.
KDVA was founded in April 2017 and is headquartered in Virginia. Retired U.S. Army Gen. Curtis Scaparrotti serves as its chairman and president. The KDVA Korea Chapter, with 10,000 regular and associate members, is closer to a lobby group advocating for the Korea-U.S. alliance through activities promoting the alliance to the two countries’ citizens and politicians.
Choi points to the complex process of updating the treaty and the potential for subsequent controversies that may strain the bonds of the alliance, noting that this is why trust is paramount between the allies.
“The expressions and terms of the Mutual Defense Treaty are bound to be comprehensive and abstract, because the treaty has to encompass a big concept in a short form,” Choi, a retired four-star general and the former deputy commander of the Combined Forces Command (CFC), said during an interview with The Korea Times on Sept. 12.
“Updating the treaty will require consent from the U.S. Congress. This process entails complex procedures and often involves heated debates between differing political ideologies. Consequently, it could potentially trigger unnecessary and dangerous controversies surrounding the alliance at a time when complex risks are affecting our national security, particularly those stemming from North Korea.”
The Mutual Defense Treaty was signed on Oct. 1, 1953, and took effect on Nov. 18, 1954. Comprising six articles, it commits South Korea and the U.S. to provide military aid in case of an attack on either party and allows the U.S. to station its military forces in South Korea.
Despite serving as the cornerstone of the alliance between the two nations for the past 70 years, there have been calls for its revision to provide more accurate definitions of terms and expressions, as well as to address modern security threats.
“As the security environment is in a constant state of change, it is fair to suggest that we should consider including up-to-date elements such as economic security, space alliance, advanced technologies and other updates into the treaty,” Choi said.
INTERVIEWROK-US alliance is win-win partnership: KUSAF chief
“However, it's worth noting that there have been no significant issues with the existing language over the past seven decades. This is because we have supplemented it with other documents and agreements."
One example highlighted by Choi is the Washington Declaration signed between President Yoon Suk Yeol and U.S. President Joe Biden in April. The declaration enabled the allies to establish the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) that ensures Washington's nuclear-based extended deterrence against North Korea.
It was seen as a significant advancement in the alliance, because it represents a bilateral-level agreement on providing U.S. extended deterrence, whereas the Nuclear Planning Group between Washington and NATO requires the consensus of members when making decisions.
“I believe the Washington Declaration is a political promise which made daunting progress,” Choi said.
“Since they are based on mutual trust, some people are saying it should be upgraded to a treaty. However, it was made public on the world stage as a political promise, and I believe it will be as effective as a treaty. Upgrading it to a treaty would require securing parliamentary consent from both countries.”
Following the Washington Declaration, the U.S. revealed the deployment of its nuclear ballistic missile submarines to South Korea, not only to send a warning to the North, but also to provide assurance to South Koreans who may doubt the declaration.
"This is why trust is the most crucial element in the alliance," Choi stressed. "Despite compromising the secrecy of the submarines, they disclosed the location of the assets to convince South Koreans about the U.S. commitment to the extended deterrence. Actions of this nature within the administrative sphere can have an impact equivalent to that of a treaty.”
President Yoon Suk Yeol poses with Korea Defense Veterans Association Chairman and President Curtis Scaparrotti during the South Korea-U.S. alliance 70th anniversary banquet at a hotel in Washington, April 25. Courtesy of presidential office
In order to strengthen the trust between the allies, Choi said interested parties of the two countries should be tightknit in multiple layers, and noted that the KDVA is playing such a role in the nongovernmental sector.
One of the notable events that the KDVA arranged was the South Korean president’s luncheon with Korean War veterans during his state visit to the U.S. on April 25. With approximately 300 current and former military officials present, Yoon expressed his gratitude to the veterans for their service during the war, which enabled South Korea to stand as it is.
On Oct. 12, the KDVA will host an unveiling ceremony at the Korea Military Academy for a monument to U.S. Military Academy West Point graduates who died in the Korean War.
The two countries’ military academies have been establishing monuments for each year of graduates from West Point between 1945 and 1951. The upcoming monument will be for those who graduated in 1945 or 1946.
Also in October, the KDVA will set up the busts of heroes who contributed to the alliance at Imjingak Peace Nuri Park in Paju, Gyeonggi Province. Included among them is U.S. Maj. Gen. John Singlaub, who was relieved from his position after criticizing former U.S. President Jimmy Carter's proposal to withdraw U.S. troops from the Korean Peninsula.
“Our activities include discussions on the current part and future expansion of the alliance from the civilian side, so that the alliance can grow into a global alliance that encompasses economic security, advanced technologies and other debates,” Choi said.
“Through discussions and engagements between civilans, we seek to build trust between the allies in multiple layers.”
The Korea Times · by 2023-10-01 07:52 | Foreign Affairs · October 2, 2023
https://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/kor001.asp
Mutual Defense Treaty Between the United States and the Republic of Korea; October 1, 1953(1)
Art 1Art 2Art 3Art 4Art 5Art 6
The Parties to this Treaty,
Reaffirming their desire to live in peace with all peoples and an governments, and desiring to strengthen the fabric of peace in the Pacific area,
Desiring to declare publicly and formally their common determination to defend themselves against external armed attack so that no potential aggressor could be under the illusion that either of them stands alone in the Pacific area,
Desiring further to strengthen their efforts for collective defense for the preservation of peace and security pending the development of a more comprehensive and effective system of regional security in the Pacific area,
Have agreed as follows:
The Parties undertake to settle any international disputes in which they may be involved by peaceful means in such a manner that international peace and security and justice are not endangered and to refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force in any manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations, or obligations assumed by any Party toward the United Nations.
The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of either of them, the political independence or security of either of the Parties is threatened by external armed attack. Separately and jointly, by self help and mutual aid, the Parties will maintain and develop appropriate means to deter armed attack and will take suitable measures in consultation and agreement to implement this Treaty and to further its purposes.
Each Party recognizes that an armed attack in the Pacific area on either of the Parties in territories now under their respective administrative control, or hereafter recognized by one of the Parties as lawfully brought under the administrative control of the other, would be dangerous to its own peace and safety and declares that it would act to meet the common danger in accordance with its constitutional processes.
The Republic of Korea grants, and the United States of America accepts, the right to dispose United States land, air and sea forces in and about the territory of the Republic of Korea as determined by mutual agreement.
This Treaty shall be ratified by the United States of America and the Republic of Korea in accordance with their respective constitutional processes and will come into force when instruments of ratification thereof have been exchanged by them at Washington.(2)
This Treaty shall remain in force indefinitely. Either Party may terminate it one year after notice has been given to the other Party.
IN WITNESS WHEREOF the undersigned Plenipotentiaries have signed this Treaty.
DONE in duplicate at Washington, in the English and Korean languages, this first day of October 1953.
UNDERSTANDING OF THE UNITED STATES (3)
[The United States Senate gave its advice and consent to the ratification of the treaty subject to the following understanding:]
It is the understanding of the United States that neither party is obligated, under Article III of the above Treaty, to come to the aid of the other except in case of an external armed attack against such party; nor shall anything in the present Treaty be construed as requiring the United States to give assistance to Korea except in the event of an armed attack against territory which has been recognized by the United States as lawfully brought under the administrative control of the Republic of Korea.
[The United States communicated the text of the understanding to the Republic of Korea in a note of January 28, 1954, acknowledged by the Republic of Korea in a note of February 1, 1954. The text of the understanding was included in the President's proclamation of November 17, 1954.]
(1) TIAS 3097, 5 UST 23602376. Ratification advised by the Senate Jan. 26, 1954, and ratified by the President Feb. 5, 1954, subject to an understanding; entered into force Nov. 17, 1954. Back
(2) Ratifications were exchanged Nov. 17, 1954. Back
(3) TIAS 3097. Back
5. Irate North Korea players attack Asian Games ref after quarter-final loss
The nature of the Kim family regime.
You can tell a lot about how someone (or some nation) handles itself on the fields of "friendly strife."
(MacArthur: 'On the fields of friendly strife are sown the seeds that on other days, on other fields will bear the fruits of victory.')
Irate North Korea players attack Asian Games ref after quarter-final loss
By Paul McNamara South China Morning Post
October 2, 2023
View Original
Furious North Korean footballers manhandled referee Rustam Lutfullin after crashing out of the Asian Games to Japan following a controversial late penalty.
Goalkeeper Kang Juh-yok vehemently protested after he was penalised for tripping forward Jun Nishikawa in the box. And North Korean anger heightened when Yuta Matsumura converted the 80th-minute spot-kick to restore Japan’s advantage, only six minutes after Kim Kuk-bom’s brilliant long-range strike drew the Koreans level.
The full-time whistle prompted chaotic scenes, with North Korea’s players – led by Kim Kyong-sok and captain Jang Kuk-chol – forcefully pursuing Uzbek official Lutfullin.
Captain Jang Kuk-chol led his out-of-control teammates in rounding on Uzbek official Lutfullin Photo: Kyodo.
Lutfullin was shoved as he retreated from the raging mob, while an assistant referee restrained the irate Kim.
Security officials raced onto the pitch at Xiaoshan Sports Centre Stadium to intervene – and they were joined by North Korea coach Sin Yong-nam, who tried to drag his players away from Lutfullin.
Sin nevertheless launched a curious defence of his team in the aftermath.
North Korea’s fury stemmed from a decisive late penalty award for opponents Japan. Photo: Philip Fong /AFP
“I admit that our players were a little bit overexcited in the match but it is football,” he said.
“There are confrontations in football matches … I think our behaviour is acceptable.”
North Korea had won all four of their previous matches, without conceding a goal. But Japan attacker Kotaro Uchino opened the scoring after 51 minutes in Hangzhou, before Kim Kuk-bom and Matsumura traded strikes.
North Korea gleefully celebrated their equaliser but would soon be united in fury. Photo: AP Photo/Louise Delmotte
Japan advanced to play Hong Kong in the semi-finals on Thursday after Jorn Andersen’s side shocked Iran 1-0 in their last-eight tie. South Korea meet Uzbekistan in the other semi-final.
North Korea, silver-medallists in 2014, will now look to their women’s team – who advanced to the last four following a bad-tempered 4-1 quarter-final victory over South Korea – for success.
They play Uzbekistan on Tuesday for the right to face either Japan or China in Friday’s final.
6. Joe Biden Should Fear the North Korea - Russia Alliance
No he should not as long as we maintain a superior military force. But we also need to conduct a superior form of political warfare address these threats.
Joe Biden Should Fear the North Korea - Russia Alliance
19fortyfive.com · by Brandon Weichert · October 2, 2023
“Rocket Man,” roared US President Donald J. Trump’s booming, New York accent across the speakers of the opulent United Nations General Assembly chamber, “is on a suicide mission for himself and his regime. The United States is ready, willing, and able [to totally destroy North Korea]!”
Trump was attacking the North Korean strongman at the UN because, for the months leading up to that moment, one could have cut through the tension between North Korea’s Kim Jong-un (whom Trump had brilliantly nicknamed “Rocket Man”) and America’s Trump with a nuclear-tipped intercontinental ballistic missile. Which, of course, is precisely what was occurring—and why Trump was being so belligerent and the UN.
According to reports at the time, when then-President-Elect Donald J. Trump had his infamous sit-down with outgoing President Barack Obama, one of the consistent themes of that transition meeting after Trump had won the contentious 2016 Presidential Election, was that North Korea was about to become America’s biggest headache—and that would be the case throughout the early Trump Administration.
Rocket Man Takes to the Skies
Right on cue, Kim Jong-un started popping off rockets of varying sizes in unpredictable and threatening ways, destabilizing the region, and putting the United States on extremely high alert.
There was no real diplomatic mission with the reclusive dictator of the Hermit Kingdom. Previous diplomatic missions had failed. But Trump, for better or worse, was not your typical American president.
Serious plans were drawn up by the Pentagon to invade North Korea. The Indo-Pacific region was on extremely high alert as North Korea’s nuclear brinkmanship increased with every day.
And with each unannounced North Korean missile test—it was so scary that Hawaii infamously had a false alarm that North Korean ICBM was inbound that it sent the entire island into a chaotic panic—Pyongyang’s scientists learned how to fix whatever problems existed with their growing ballistic missile arsenal.
At the height of the tension, when North Korea could not be certain if the unhinged (in their eyes) Trump would follow through on his threats, Trump did the unpredictable: he offered to meet with the unhappy North Korean dictator. These moves worried North Korea’s biggest partner, China.
In 2017, China is rumored to have tried to support a coup against Kim Jong-un by supporting Kim’s brother. Kim Jong-un sent two assassins to murder his brother at an international airport in Thailand. The security detail that was supposed to be protecting the brother was a Chinese one.
Even before that incident, Kim Jong-un’s relationship with his biggest benefactor, China, was rocky.
One of his first acts after assuming power was to murder his uncle, who was known as Beijing’s man in the Kim Family’s inner circle.
Purges of other high-ranking North Koreans with close ties to Beijing occurred subsequently. Kim, it seemed, was looking to make his regime not exclusively reliant on the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
Enter Trump.
A Bromance for the Ages
No one—least of all President Trump—believed they’d be dealing with Kim Jong-un as Trump had.
The forty-fifth president fell into a strange bromance with Kim, who just happened to be trying to diversify his country’s alliances. The Trump-Kim bromance was extraordinary in that it not only averted what would have been an awful war. It also moved Kim from being nothing more than China’s geopolitical cat’s paw against the Americans into some other category.
North Korea was still a threat, yet Trump managed to get Pyongyang’s most hostile behavior—the increasingly sophisticated missile launches—to stop for several years thereafter.
Had Trump won reelection in 2020, it is possible that the relationship would have led to more diplomatic breakthroughs (although even the Trump-Kim bromance was souring by the end of Trump’s first term). Still, what Henry R. Nau refers to as “coercive diplomacy,” marrying the stick with the carrot, worked in reducing North Korea’s immediate threat, and opening new diplomatic possibilities.
After Trump left office, however, Joe Biden resumed the status quo American policy of diplomatically isolating and ignoring North Korea. Well, Kim Jong-un, like most successful villains, didn’t just go away. His nefarious schemes continued apace.
With Biden in office, Kim again fell under the sway of China—much more than during the Trump years.
Still looking for other friends to play with, Kim found Russia’s Vladimir Putin. The Russian strongman, engaged in a brutal war against Ukraine, needed supplies.
Sure, the North Korean supplies are subpar. But Russia is the land of quantity having a quality of its own.
The Putin-Kim Bromance Takes Flight
It now seems that Putin has replaced Trump as Kim’s new bromance (and slight counterweight to China).
In turn, Putin’s enemies have now become Kim’s enemies.
Right on cue, Pyongyang announced it was expanding their nuclear weapons arsenal. North Korea, first with China, and now with Russia, has become an important bulwark against the Western alliance along Eurasia’s Pacific coast.
Kim has ensured that the Hermit Kingdom is now a key player in the growing anti-American alliance of autocrats in Eurasia. This reality was avoidable.
Sadly, geography is often destiny, and Kim’s proximity both to Russia and China means that, short of constant US diplomacy, Pyongyang will always run to their big brothers to the north (and play Beijing and Moscow off each other, as they presently are).
A 19FortyFive Senior Editor and an energy analyst at the The-Pipeline, Brandon J. Weichert is a former Congressional staffer and geopolitical analyst who is a contributor at The Washington Times, as well as at the Asia Times. He is the author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower (Republic Book Publishers), Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life (Encounter Books), and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy (July 23). Weichert occasionally serves as a Subject Matter Expert for various organizations, including the Department of Defense. He can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.
19fortyfive.com · by Brandon Weichert · October 2, 2023
7. Is There Any Chance North Korea Will Ever Give Up Its Nuclear Weapons?
In my opinion, no. Not as long as the Kim family regime remains in power.
But Frank is right. No one can know with certainty what Kim Jong Un will do.
We can continue to beg for dialogue but it is Kim Jong Un who refuses to negotiate and engage. Yes we could make concessions to try to entice him to the table but in my opinion that will only signal to Kim that his political warfare strategy and blackmail diplomacy are working. And if they are working for the regime why would Kim give them up?
Excerpts:
Of course, the situation is different today since North Korea possesses nuclear weapons. But this is precisely why the United States and North Korea need to increase dialogue and improve relations. But doing so will require a courageous paradigm shift by one or both governments.
Certain things like denuclearization and sanctions relief will remain difficult, but many other aspects of peaceful coexistence should be achievable and are in both countries’ interests.
Is There Any Chance North Korea Will Ever Give Up Its Nuclear Weapons?
Of course, no analyst can say with 100 percent certainty that North Korea will never up its nuclear weapons.
The National Interest · by Frank Aum · October 2, 2023
Of course, no analyst can say with 100 percent certainty that North Korea will never up its nuclear weapons.
However, all the data points over many decades—including North Korea’s hostile relationship with the United States and South Korea, its experience of U.S. carpet-bombing during the Korean War, the constant threat of a U.S. nuclear attack, the dilapidated state of North Korea’s conventional military, the cost-effective nature of investing in nuclear weapons versus conventional military assets, the prestige provided by being one of only nine countries with nuclear weapons, the experience of other countries being toppled or threatened after giving up their nuclear weapons, the incomparable strength of nuclear weapons as a deterrent, and the general paranoid nature of the Kim regime—suggest that North Korea will not disarm in the short, medium, and probably long-term.
Not surprisingly, the U.S. intelligence community assesses North Korea will not abandon its nuclear weapons.
The more important question is, given that North Korea will not disarm and the two countries have a hostile relationship, what can the United States do to help reduce tensions, decrease misperceptions and miscommunication, and lower the risk of a nuclear war?
In other words, how can the United States achieve peaceful, not hostile, coexistence with a nuclear North Korea? First, a peace treaty is not necessary to live in relative peace. Between 1994–2008, the two countries peacefully coexisted. They constantly engaged diplomatically. U.S. military officers worked alongside Korean People’s Army officers in North Korea to conduct recovery operations for U.S. service member remains from the Korean War (1996-2005). U.S. Congressional members and staff visited North Korea frequently. Many U.S. NGOs conducted humanitarian projects in North Korea.
North Korean academic, sports, and cultural delegations visited the United States, approximately 800 to 1000 American citizens traveled to North Korea every year, and North Korea’s military demonstrations were limited (e.g., one missile test between 1994–2002). Today, none of these characteristics of peaceful coexistence exist, and North Korea conducted more missile tests in 2022 (sixty-nine) than in any previous year.
Of course, the situation is different today since North Korea possesses nuclear weapons. But this is precisely why the United States and North Korea need to increase dialogue and improve relations. But doing so will require a courageous paradigm shift by one or both governments.
Certain things like denuclearization and sanctions relief will remain difficult, but many other aspects of peaceful coexistence should be achievable and are in both countries’ interests.
Frank Aum is the senior expert on Northeast Asia at the U.S. Institute of Peace. He oversees the Institute’s work on Northeast Asia and focuses on ways to strengthen diplomacy to reduce tensions and enhance peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula. From 2010 to 2017, he worked at the Department of Defense as special counsel to the Army General Counsel, special assistant to the assistant secretary of defense for Asian and Pacific Security Affairs, and senior advisor on North Korea in the Office of the Secretary of Defense. During this time, he advised four secretaries of defense on issues related to Northeast Asia and the Korean Peninsula. Aum also served as head of delegation for working-level negotiations with the Republic of Korea on U.S.-ROK Alliance matters and received the Secretary of Defense Medal for Outstanding Public Service.
The National Interest · by Frank Aum · October 2, 2023
8. US policy played role in revival of Russia-China-North Korea axis
Blame the US.
Excerpts:
As such, the war in Ukraine seems to have brought North Korea and Russia closer, especially as they find themselves under US-imposed economic and diplomatic sanctions.
In return for North Korea’s staunch support, Russia, together with China, vetoed a US-sponsored UN Security Council resolution in September 2022 which was intended to strengthen the sanctions against North Korea on account of its frequent intercontinental ballistic missile testing and the continued development of nuclear weapons. Russia and China argued that diplomatic solutions need to take precedence over punitive sanctions to encourage Kim’s government to drop its nuclear programme.
In their summit, Putin and Kim discussed military, economic and humanitarian co-operation. The hosting of the summit in Russia’s most technologically advanced spaceport symbolised Russia’s willingness to assist North Korea with critical military technology which North Korea needs for its weapons development programme. Kim’s regime also needs technical and humanitarian assistance to address food shortages in the country caused by border closures during the Covid-19 pandemic.
On its part, Russia reportedly wants to secure the supply of munitions and artillery from North Korea to sustain its war effort in Ukraine.
As such, it seems the hegemonic policies of the US in Asia have played the mid-wife role in the rebirth of the China-North Korea-Russia axis.
US policy played role in revival of Russia-China-North Korea axis
iol.co.za
Dr Sizo Nkala
There has been a marked increase in diplomatic intensity between China, Russia and North Korea in the recent past in response to rapidly shifting geopolitical dynamics.
It began with a symbolical, yet powerful, gesture when the leader of North Korea, Kim Jong Un, sent new year’s cards to the leaders of eight countries including China and Russia in January. In March, China’s President Xi Jinping conducted a state visit to Russia where the two parties committed to stand with each other. They signed a range of economic and security agreements, notably the use of national currencies in trade and China’s oil imports from Russia.
In July, Russia’s Minister of Defence Sergei Shogun and a Chinese member of the all-powerful Communist Party of China who all also serves as the Vice Premier, Li Hongzhong, attended the commemoration of the 70th anniversary of the end of the Korean War. During their visit, Kim treated them to a military parade showcasing his country’s impressive weapons inventory including unmanned aircraft, sub-marine launched ballistic missiles and strategic cruise missiles.
It is reported that Russia’s Shogun suggested the holding of a naval military exercise involving the three countries (Russia, China and North Korea), ostensibly as a response to the US, Japan and South Korea’s trilateral exercises.
Russia and China also accepted invitations to the 75th anniversary celebrations of the founding of North Korea on September 9. From September 12 to 17, Kim visited Russia. His itinerary included meeting his counterpart, President Vladmir Putin, and touring Russia’s military sites.
A day after Kim concluded his visit in Russia, China’s foreign minister found his way to Russia where he met the Putin and his counterpart, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. During their meetings, they professed their countries’ commitment to a multipolar world.
Putin is set to visit China for the Belt and Road Forum in October. This after Putin could not attend the BRICS meeting in South Africa in August because of the International Criminal Court’s warrant of arrest for him. This says a lot about China’s willingness to resist calls to isolate Russia. The frequency of the diplomatic interactions has been characterised by many as akin to a reincarnation or a rebirth of the strategic tripartite alliance formed during the Korean War of 1950 to 1953.
The three countries need the alliance to undermine and blunt the US and the West’s hostility towards their respective governments. Since 2018, the US has been engaged in a trade war with China while identifying the country as a strategic threat. In a bid to contain China, the US has been cultivating alliances with Indo-Pacific powers including Australia, the UK and the US, the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) with India, Japan, Australia and the US which China contemptuously dismissed as an Asian Nato, and the so-called Camp David commitments with Japan and South Korea to hold trilateral naval exercises in the Indo-Pacific.
Hence, China needs a strong alliance in North-East Asia as counter measure to US efforts to isolate it in the region. North Korea has been reeling under US-instigated UN Security Council sanctions imposed after it refused to abandon its nuclear weapons programme. Without strong regional allies such as China and Russia, Kim’s regime may not be able to hold on to power for much longer. Russia has also come under biting economic and diplomatic sanctions imposed by the US and its Western allies. The support of countries such as China and North Korea is invaluable to Moscow’s attempts to thwart the sanctions.
During his visit to Russia, during which he held a summit with Putin in Russia’s most advanced spaceport, the Vostochny Cosmodrome, in the city of Vladivostok, Kim pledged his support for Russia in its war with Ukraine, He he described the war as Russia’s defence of its security interests.
North Korea has been resolutely consistent in its support for Russia since the beginning of the war in Ukraine in February 2022. The country is one of the four countries, other than Russia, which voted against a March 2022 UN resolution condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Moreover, North Korea is also one of the three UN members, in addition to Russia and Syria, who recognise the newly promulgated Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk whose Russian-speaking populations voted for secession from Ukraine. With Russian support, the two regions had been embroiled in a deadly conflict with the Ukrainian government since 2014 which culminated in their Russian-sponsored secession in 2022.
As such, the war in Ukraine seems to have brought North Korea and Russia closer, especially as they find themselves under US-imposed economic and diplomatic sanctions.
In return for North Korea’s staunch support, Russia, together with China, vetoed a US-sponsored UN Security Council resolution in September 2022 which was intended to strengthen the sanctions against North Korea on account of its frequent intercontinental ballistic missile testing and the continued development of nuclear weapons. Russia and China argued that diplomatic solutions need to take precedence over punitive sanctions to encourage Kim’s government to drop its nuclear programme.
In their summit, Putin and Kim discussed military, economic and humanitarian co-operation. The hosting of the summit in Russia’s most technologically advanced spaceport symbolised Russia’s willingness to assist North Korea with critical military technology which North Korea needs for its weapons development programme. Kim’s regime also needs technical and humanitarian assistance to address food shortages in the country caused by border closures during the Covid-19 pandemic.
On its part, Russia reportedly wants to secure the supply of munitions and artillery from North Korea to sustain its war effort in Ukraine.
As such, it seems the hegemonic policies of the US in Asia have played the mid-wife role in the rebirth of the China-North Korea-Russia axis.
*Dr Sizo Nkala is A Research Fellow at the University of Johannesburg’s Centre for Africa-China Studies
**The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of Independent Media or IOL
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De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
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Editor, Small Wars Journal
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