Quotes of the Day:

“Only the American melting pot could mobilize such a body of experts in the knowledge of other countries, and we did it to the great advantage of our war effort.”

– WIlliam J. Donovan, Director of the OSS

"Every great dream begins with a dreamer. Always remember, you have within you the strength, the patience, and the passion to reach for the stars to change the world." 

– Harriet Tubman

“It was our belief that the love of possessions is a weakness to be overcome. . . . Children must early learn the beauty of generosity. They are taught to give what they prize most, that they may taste the happiness of giving. . . . The Indians in their simplicity literally give away all that they have—to relatives, to guests of other tribes or clans, but above all to the poor and the aged, from whom they can hope for no return.” 

– Charles Alexander Eastman (Ohiyesa)

1. Hyun Seung Lee, an escapee from north Korea, urges President Zelensky to transmit this message to nKPA soldiers in Ukraine.

2. Understanding the relationship between Russia and North Korea (Jean Lee)

3. South Korea Could Send Advisors, Weapons To Ukraine Over North Korean Troop Movements

4. 20 Years On, The North Korean Human Rights Act Remains Lapsed

5. South Korea looking at Officers-only Crews for ROK Navy Vessels

6. U.S. dispels suspicion of little confidence in S. Korean intel over N.K. troop dispatch to Russia

7. Russian, N. Korean flags displayed together on Ukraine battlefield

8. S. Korea to launch 3rd military spy satellite in December

9. [Photo Breaking News] Multiple Russian Vehicles at N.Korea-Russia Border, Including Unidentified Cargo (6 photos)

10. North Korean Troops Train in Russia as Moscow Deepens War Coalition

11. What We Know About North Korea’s Role in the Ukraine War

12. South Korea warns it can send arms to Ukraine after reports of North's troops in Russia

13. U.S. defense chief confirms North Korean troops are in Russia

14. South’s DMZ loudspeakers are informing North Koreans about troops sent to Russia

15. 3,000 N.K. soldiers sent to Russia; about 10,000 to be dispatched by around December: NIS

16. Why North Korean troops’ biggest impact in Ukraine may not be on the battlefield

17. N. Korean leader urges bolstering war deterrence, citing U.S. nuclear threats

18. How Australia and South Korea Are Recrafting Their Relationship and Fortifying the Indo-Pacific

19. Zelenskyy calls on allies 'not to hide', respond to North Korean involvement in war

1. Hyun Seung Lee, an escapee from north Korea, urges President Zelensky to transmit this message to nKPA soldiers in Ukraine.

From my good friend Hyun Seung Lee. I have spent many hours listening to Hyun Seung describe his military experiences in the north Korean People's Army.

A short message in Korea for the soldiers of the north Korean People's Army in Russia and Ukraine. The English text is below. 

At least Hyun Seung Lee is willing to conduct information and influence activities against the nKPA target audience. What are the PSYOP, public diplomacy, and other information professionals doing about the north Korea military deployment to Russia and Ukraine? I wonder how long this message would take to pass through the approval process? 

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7254655921467924481/

Hyun Seung Lee, an escapee from north Korea, urges President Zelensky to transmit this message to nKPA soldiers in Ukraine.

I urge President Zelensky to deliver my message to fellow North Korean soldiers on the battlefield in Ukraine, so we can save these innocent lives. As a former North Korean soldier, I can’t bear to see them sacrificed in an unjust war driven by dictators.

hashtag

#Ukraine hashtag

#NorthKorea hashtag

#SaveLives hashtag

#Zelensky

Fellow soldiers of the Korean People’s Army, my name is Hyun Seung Lee. I once served in the 4th Corps Artillery Reconnaissance Battalion and the General Staff Department's 15th Combat Technique Research Institute. In 2004, I trained alongside comrades from various divisions of the Storm Corps for six months at the 15th Research Institute. I am sending this message to you with a heartfelt plea.

The war in Ukraine, initiated by Russia, is a crime against humanity. There is no reason for you to sacrifice your lives on a foreign battlefield. Kim Jong-un is merely using your lives as a bargaining chip to pocket millions of dollars in secret funds, solely to secure his safety and maintain his power. The war you are fighting is not one of justice, nor is it for the defense of your homeland. It is not for yourselves, your parents, or your siblings. It is a cruel crime, driven solely by Kim Jong-un’s greed and his desire to maintain power.

Comrades, if you seek freedom and take a broader look at the world, you will realize with deep clarity how we have been deceived by the Kim family's three-generation regime throughout our lives. There are other choices for you, and there is a new path ahead. If you have the courage to choose freedom, a world where you no longer need to risk your lives without cause will be waiting for you. Where there’s a will, there’s a way.

2. Understanding the relationship between Russia and North Korea (Jean Lee)

Understanding the relationship between Russia and North Korea

October 20, 20246:11 PM ET

Heard on All Things Considered

Rob Schmitz

NPR · by Rob Schmitz · October 20, 2024

ROB SCHMITZ, HOST:

South Korea's intelligence agency reports that North Korea has sent 1,500 special forces troops to Russia to help Russia's war in Ukraine. And North Korea's leader, Kim Jong Un, is ratcheting up tensions with South Korea, including blowing up sections of a road that once connected the two countries. To better understand these developments, we've called Jean Lee. She's the former Pyongyang bureau chief for The Associated Press and an adjunct fellow at the East-West Center in Honolulu. Welcome, Jean.

JEAN LEE: Thank you. Great to speak to you about this.

SCHMITZ: So this past week, South Korea's intelligence agency said North Korea deployed troops to Russia. Video has been posted online of what appears to be North Korean troops being outfitted with uniforms and equipment in Russia's Far East. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin says the U.S. cannot confirm this news but said if true, it would be concerning. Jean, you've - you covered this region for years. How do you see all of this?

LEE: We're still waiting for confirmation, but I did take a look at that video. It does look and sound like North Korean soldiers. It raises the specter of another country being drawn into this conflict. So from the perspective of the war in Ukraine, it certainly, if confirmed, raises this possibility of this conflict broadening and also that North Korea is possibly enabling Russia to prolong the conflict. So this is just the latest of the contributions that we believe North Korea has been providing. But earlier, we heard officials from the U.S. and South Korea and Ukraine say ammunition and even ballistic missiles being provided and used by Russia from North Korea on the battleground in Ukraine. So what we're seeing here is this very strong message that these two countries are willing to flout international law and U.N. sanctions. I think one of the things I'm concerned about is, what are the other arrangements that Russia and North Korea have negotiated?

SCHMITZ: So as you mentioned, there could be a lot more happening behind the scenes here. You know, as we know, North Korea is notoriously closed off from the world. Why would Kim Jong Un want to get involved in this war at this time?

LEE: Russia is their traditional ally. The Soviets were the first supporters and benefactors of the new North Korean country in the 1940s after Korea's liberation from Japan.

SCHMITZ: Right.

LEE: But that relationship receded so much after the fall of the Soviet Union. And when I was in Pyongyang, we saw the shift from an emphasis on the Soviet Union to, honestly, a shift toward China and the United States as the main superpowers that they wanted to deal with. So this might be an opportunity to, I hope, send journalists back in but also for the United States and China, I would say, to take advantage. China cannot be happy about this deepening relationship between Russia and North Korea. So there's some opportunities here. And I just hope that the governments in the region are able to find those openings and try to change the direction of this relationship.

SCHMITZ: It makes me wonder how China is seeing this because China always has had a very sort of frenemy sort of relationship with North Korea. It always kept it at arm's distance, but it was closed at the same time.

LEE: Yes, I think that's an interesting point and important to remind people that, even though they may portray this as a close relationship, it's a really fraught relationship. And it's been fraught for a very long time, and yet they're neighbors. And so I think China has a very different interest in maintaining some sort of stability in the region. And I think that what Russia's doing is probably unnerving to China, especially if there's some sort of an exchange that ratchets up the nuclear program to a point where China can't turn a blind eye.

SCHMITZ: Yeah, that's really fascinating. You know, I'm also wondering, you know, if all of this is true - and of course, this has not been confirmed by the United States yet - you know, this would be the first time that North Korea has made a significant intervention in an international conflict like this. The North has a large military of hundreds of thousands, but it's not a military with much real-world fighting experience. Do you have any idea how these troops would fare in a real-world battleground like there are in Ukraine?

LEE: I think this could be a moment or an opportunity for North Korea to provide its soldiers with that training, and that's also a concern - is that those who survive will come back with additional skills.

SCHMITZ: Right.

LEE: That is something that is also designed, I think, to make the neighbors in the region on the Korean Peninsula nervous.

SCHMITZ: So not to get too far afield from this, but on Saturday it was reported that North Korea discovered the remains of what they say appears to be a South Korean drone. The two countries have had escalating drama with, you know, cross-border flying objects, I guess. But is this more of the same in this narrative, or is this a certain ratcheting up that we're seeing here?

LEE: I haven't seen confirmation from the South Koreans that this was one of their drones. So I am watching for that. But I do think...

SCHMITZ: Right.

LEE: ...That the North Koreans are looking for every opportunity to ratchet up tensions. They want to create anxiety around the Korean Peninsula, and I do think it's largely manufactured by North Korea. That said, I think it's always important to remember that this region is a tinderbox, that you do have many, many troops that are at the ready and that any miscalculation could trigger conflict. So there's absolutely every reason for us to be on guard.

SCHMITZ: That's Jean Lee, former Pyongyang bureau chief for The Associated Press and adjunct fellow at the East-West Center in Honolulu. Jean, thanks for joining us.

LEE: Thanks, Rob.

NPR · by Rob Schmitz · October 20, 2024

3. South Korea Could Send Advisors, Weapons To Ukraine Over North Korean Troop Movements

Reports seem to be fairly conclusive that nK has been deploying some number and some type of troops.

South Korea Could Send Advisors, Weapons To Ukraine Over North Korean Troop Movements

The first North Korean troops are expected to arrive in Russia's Kursk region tomorrow, Ukraine's Defense Intelligence Director told us.

Howard Altman

Updated on Oct 22, 2024 2:58 PM EDT

260

twz.com · by Howard Altman

The first North Korean troops are expected to arrive in Russia’s Kursk region tomorrow to help defend it against Ukraine’s ongoing incursion, the head of the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Directorate (GUR) told The War Zone Tuesday. That information comes as Seoul is considering sending advisors and heavy weapons to Ukraine in response to Pyongyang’s deployment to Russia of upwards of 12,000 soldiers, including elite special operations units.

“We are waiting for the first units tomorrow in the Kursk direction,” Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov told us. It is unclear at the moment how many or how they will be equipped. “We will see after a couple of days,” he added.

Alarm about North Korean troop movements to Russia is growing in South Korea. After a meeting to assess the situation, South Korea’s presidential National Security Council said Pyongyang’s deployment poses a “significant security threat” to both South Korea and the international community and is a “blatant violation” of U.N. Security Council resolutions prohibiting military cooperation with North Korea,” the South Korean Yonhap News Agency reported on Tuesday.

“If the illegal military cooperation between North Korea and Russia continues, (South Korea) will not stand by but respond firmly in collaboration with the international community,” Principal Deputy National Security Adviser Kim Tae-hyo said, according to Yonhap. He warned of “phased measures” in response to the level of their military ties.

(LEAD) S. Korea vows to take 'phased measures' in response to N. Korea-Russia military cooperation https://t.co/KtvCtN6Rwi

— Yonhap News Agency (@YonhapNews) October 22, 2024

“There is a possibility that personnel will be sent to Ukraine to monitor the tactics and combat capabilities of North Korean special forces dispatched in support of Russia,” Yonhap reported, citing a source. “If deployed, the team is expected to be composed of military personnel from intelligence units, who could analyze North Korean battlefield tactics or take part in interrogations of captured North Koreans.”

There are also unconfirmed reports that North Korea has sent fighter pilots to Russia.

A South Korean government official claimed last month that North Korea “dispatched fighter pilots to Vladivostok, a city in the Russian Far East, ahead of the first deployment of its ground troops on October 8,” Newsweek reported, citing TV Chosun. “This could relate to training on Russian combat aircraft supplied to North Korea, the report said. But it could not rule out that Russia, which has suffered from a shortage of pilots” during the all-out war, “had requested assistance from the North.”

Training North Koreans to operate Russian jets, most likely its familiar Su-25 Frogfoot attack jets, would present a host of challenges including language barriers and doctrine, but it isn’t out of the question.

Reports suggest North Korea has sent fighter pilots to Russia to potentially assist in the Ukraine war, amid shortages of Russian pilots according to Newsweek. South Korean media indicated that North Korean pilots were dispatched to Vladivostok ahead of ground troop deployment.… pic.twitter.com/dNatN0PDN8

— NOELREPORTS (@NOELreports) October 22, 2024

Seoul has a range of defensive weapons systems it could provide Ukraine, the publication noted, “including the Cheongung-II medium-range surface-to-air missile system, which could help Ukraine bolster its air defenses.”

That system is also known as the M-SAM, or Medium-range Surface-to-Air Missile, which is already deployed in South Korea and is optimized to destroy lower-tier ballistic missile threats.

Beyond that, South Korea, a major arms producer, could also provide offensive weapons, like artillery shells, howitzers, tanks and multiple launch rocket systems, Yonhap and the South Korean Chosun-TV media outlet posited.

Since the outbreak of the war, South Korea has provided the United States with 155mm shells “on the condition that the U.S. is the ‘end user’ — a method that observers say might have enabled Seoul to give indirect arms support to Ukraine as the U.S. sends its own stockpiled munitions to Ukraine,” Yonhap noted.

KFN News: South Korean government is considering supplying Ukraine with 155mm shells in light of North Korea sending soldiers to Russia.

Acquisition Act and the Foreign Trade Act. In order for such a transfer to be possible, both laws would likely need to be amended. pic.twitter.com/0DINz198ja

— MAKS 24 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) October 22, 2024

The presence of North Korean troops in Russia “raises the possibility that South Korea could opt to directly supply artillery shells to Ukraine depending on the level of military cooperation between Russia and North Korea,” according to Yonhap. “Other possible weapons systems that might be considered include South Korea’s homegrown K9 self-propelled howitzers, K2 main battle tanks, and Chunmoo multiple rocket launchers.”

Though not mentioned in any local media reports, South Korea also possesses indigenously produced ballistic missiles and combat jets, among other advanced systems, that would be of extreme interest to Kyiv.

South Korea isn’t the only country contemplating increased support to Ukraine over the deployment of troops from the North.

Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis told Politico on Sunday that it’s time for European countries to revisit French President Emmanuel Macron’s idea of deploying troops to Ukraine.

“If information about Russia’s killing squads being equipped with North Korean ammunition and military personnel is confirmed, we have to get back to ‘boots on the ground’ and other ideas proposed by Macron,” Landsbergis told the news outlet.

Lithuania's Foreign Minister Gabrielus Landsbergis has suggested sending EU troops to Ukraine in light of North Korean soldiers joining Russian forces. He emphasized the need to revisit French President Macron's earlier proposal for troop deployment, which had been dismissed by… pic.twitter.com/nvvSueRMSA

— NOELREPORTS (@NOELreports) October 22, 2024

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol spoke with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on Monday. Rutte urged Seoul to send a delegation to NATO “to share data and suggested boosting cooperation in the defense industry and security dialogue among South Korea, Ukraine and NATO to respond if the North sends more soldiers to Russia.”

Yoon asked for access to NATO’s battle management system.

“We hope that the procedure for joining NATO’s Battlefield Information Collection and Exploitation Systems (BICES) is quickly finalized so that we can communicate with NATO in real-time and share data safely and effectively,” Yoon said, the South Korean Korea.Net news outlet reported. “The NATO chief responded by saying he would strive to ensure swift progress.”

On Twitter, Rutte said North Korea sending troops to Russia “would mark a significant escalation.”

I spoke with @President_KR about #NATO’s close partnership w/ Seoul, defence industrial cooperation, and the interconnected security of the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific. #NorthKorea sending troops to fight alongside #Russia in #Ukraine would mark a significant escalation.

— Mark Rutte (@SecGenNATO) October 21, 2024

As we previously reported, North Korean soldiers dispatched to Russia “are currently stationed at Russian military bases in the Far East, including Vladivostok, Ussuriysk, Khabarovsk, and Blagoveshchensk,” South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) stated in a new assessment released last week. Those troops “are expected to be deployed to the front lines as soon as they complete their adaptation training.”

At least six of Pyongyang’s forces, as we previously noted, have already been killed in Ukraine.

On Tuesday, the independent Russian ASTRA news outlet published video on Telegram claiming to show North Korean troops in Russia.

“ASTRA geolocated a video that, as its creators behind the scenes claim, shows the arrival of North Korean soldiers at a military base,” the outlet reported. “Apparently, this is military unit 44980 of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division in the village of Sergeyevka in Primorsky Krai.”

There is further evidence of North Korean military presence in Russia’s Primorsky Krai. ASTRA geolocated a video showing the alleged arrival of North Korean soldiers at military base 44980, part of the 127th Motorized Rifle Division in Sergeevka. The video’s narrator, speaking in… pic.twitter.com/w9XiQ3jqgv

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) October 22, 2024

All this comes after Russian President Vladimir Putin submitted a draft law to the Russian State Duma recently seeking ratification of a strategic partnership between Moscow and Pyongyang, hammered out in June. It calls for each side to provide military assistance to each other in the event of war.

With that strategic partnership in place, having intelligence troops on the front to learn about Russia’s capabilities would be an important asset for South Korea.

As the war in Ukraine grinds on, North Korea’s supply of troops and arms to Russia helps Vladimir Putin continue his fight. The Pentagon recently said that some 600,000 Russian troops have been killed and wounded since the all-out invasion was launched in February 2022 and that September saw the highest rate of casualties of any month since.

In response to assertions that her country is sending troops to Russia, Kim Jong-un, the powerful sister of North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un slammed South Korea and Ukraine on Tuesday for what she claimed was a military provocation against Pyongyang. She likened the two countries to “bad dogs bred by the U.S,” the Korea JoongAng Daily reported.

“A military provocation against a nuclear weapons state may be led to horrible situation, unimaginable for politicians and military experts in any big or small country in the world with their normal thinking to experience,” she said in the statement carried by the Korean Central News Agency.

Kim Yo-jong, sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, made provocative comments comparing Ukraine and South Korea to "ill-mannered dogs raised in the U.S." She criticized both nations for their behavior and rhetoric regarding nuclear powers, suggesting they share similarities… pic.twitter.com/VY8H55ztYa

— NOELREPORTS (@NOELreports) October 22, 2024

Officials in Washington are publicly saying they don’t have evidence yet of a North Korean troop presence in Russia but remain concerned.

“If it’s true that the DPRK soldiers are going there to join the war against Ukraine, it would certainly mark a dangerous and highly concerning development,” White House National Security spokesman John Kirby told reporters on Monday.

On background, U.S. officials, East Asian diplomats and congressional aides are saying there is not much the U.S. to stop North Korea from sending troops to Russia.

“They concede that Washington has made little to no progress in slowing North Korea’s rogue nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs, and if it can’t do that, it can only do so much to halt North Korean troop deployments to Russia, too,” those sources told Politico.

There is no indication that the Biden administration will change its policies regarding ‘no U.S. boots on the ground’ in Ukraine or allowing it to use long-range weapons deep inside Russia as the result of these developments. However, as one of the world’s best arms manufacturers with a deep reserve of ammunition, South Korea’s direct involvement in this war could represent a significant boost to Ukraine’s defense.

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com

Howard Altman

Senior Staff Writer

Howard is a Senior Staff Writer for The War Zone, and a former Senior Managing Editor for Military Times. Prior to this, he covered military affairs for the Tampa Bay Times as a Senior Writer. Howard’s work has appeared in various publications including Yahoo News, RealClearDefense, and Air Force Times.

twz.com · by Howard Altman

4. 20 Years On, The North Korean Human Rights Act Remains Lapsed

Will we (the ROK and US) get serious about a human rights upfront approach?

Conclusion:

There is a need for genuine and sustained leadership from Congress and the executive branch. Now is a critical moment to act. The question remains: Will the U.S. rise to the occasion and help the North Korean people in their time of need?

20 Years On, The North Korean Human Rights Act Remains Lapsed

Forbes · by Olivia Enos · October 22, 2024

... [+]Corbis via Getty Images

October 18th marked 20 years since the North Korean Human Rights Act (NKHRA) was signed into law. The NKHRA is landmark legislation demonstrating U.S. commitment to defend the rights of the North Korean people even and especially when the Kim regime does not. At the time of the anniversary, however, the act has lapsed and is not currently included in the National Defense Authorization Act – the bill’s best chance for reauthorization. This lapse is unacceptable given the gravity of human rights conditions in North Korea.

Passed in 2004, the legislation created the Special Envoy for North Korean Human Rights Issues, a Senate confirmed position of ambassador rank tasked with prioritizing the human rights issues in broader U.S. diplomacy with North Korea. It also created a pathway for North Koreans to be resettled as refugees in the U.S. and regularly funded important work related to improving information access in North Korea. The current reauthorization bill would prioritize relief for divided families and maintains many of the elements of the previous NKHRA reauthorizations.

The Act lapsed in September 2022, meaning that if it is not passed this year, the NKHRA will fail to be reauthorized for three congressional calendar years. This leaves the North Korean people in the lurch. Since the act lapsed, the North Korean people have faced severe suffering due to the airtight restrictions the Kim regime put on the North Korean border during the pandemic. As we speak, the United Nations is undertaking efforts to document severe human rights conditions in the country over the past ten years since the UN Commission of Inquiry determined that the North Korean people face ongoing crimes against humanity in 2014. This important update is slated to be released in September 2025.

As it stands, Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) currently has a hold on the legislation; it not clear what his objections are to the reauthorization and his staff did not respond to my request for comment. Given a lack of congressional leadership, now may be an opportune moment for the executive branch to undertake substantial action.

To commemorate the 20th anniversary of the NKHRA, the U.S. Secretary of State should issue a U.S. government atrocity determination stating explicitly whether the North Korean people face ongoing crimes against humanity. It should also consider whether North Korean people face other atrocity crimes, including genocide.

My own research at Hudson Institute suggests that some groups of individuals in North Korea may face ongoing genocide today – especially North Korean Christians. Christians today face severe forms of persecution, including at least three of the five acts described as genocide in the United Nations Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide. Specifically, North Korean Christians endure serious bodily or mental harm, killing, and targeting of their children through severe public executions for their faith, being sent to political prison camps, and the targeting of their children through the Kim regime’s brutality. To meet the definition of genocide, only one of the acts needs to be committed.

If an atrocity determination were made, it has the potential to spark other actions, including congressional action to reauthorize the NKHRA. This was certainly the case with the Uyghur atrocity determination which led Congress to pass seminal Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act legislation mere months after the determination.

There is a need for genuine and sustained leadership from Congress and the executive branch. Now is a critical moment to act. The question remains: Will the U.S. rise to the occasion and help the North Korean people in their time of need?

Forbes · by Olivia Enos · October 22, 2024

5. South Korea looking at Officers-only Crews for ROK Navy Vessels

South Korea looking at Officers-only Crews for ROK Navy Vessels - Naval News

ROK Navy vessels could virtually be crewed by officers only by 2030 as South Korea is looking at addressing recruitment and staffing issues.

navalnews.com · by Eunhyuk Cha · October 21, 2024

All small vessels would be staffed with petty officers (PO) and officers, while larger vessels would retain a minimal number of seamen.

On October 18th, during the National Defense Committee’s audit at the military headquarters in Gyeryongdae, the Republic of Korea (ROK) Navy stated that they are pushing to professionalize its crews by 2030. The move would see all small vessels in the fleet crewed with experienced petty officers (PO) and officers. Larger vessels such as frigates and destroyers would retain a minimal number of enlisted seamen but the majority of the crews would consist of officers.

In South Korea, where military service is mandatory, the ROK Navy recruit sailors through an application process. Between 2018 and 2022, the Navy’s recruitment rate dropped by 30%, falling short of the manpower they required. The Navy believes that the decline is due to difficult working conditions, a longer service period compared to the Army, and restrictions on communication, mobile phone use, and leave, all of which discourage applications to the Navy.

Additionally, the ROK Navy states that ship duties, which require a high level of expertise, should be assigned to petty officers and officers who serve for longer periods, rather than enlisted sailors with a 20-month service term. This shift, they believe, is essential for maintaining the Navy’s operational readiness, which is crucial for ensuring constant operational capability. The Navy views this approach as necessary to tackle ongoing challenges, and additional increase in regional security threats such as North Korea’s nuclear development and provocations that threaten peace around the Korean Peninsula.

The ROK Navy is promoting increased officer staffing operations and complete officer staffing operations for its vessels to address this challenge. The increased officer staffing operation is primarily applied to larger vessels, such as frigates, destroyers, and landing ships. While maintaining a small number of sailors in specific military specialties, such as deck operations and cooking, the proportion of officers is increased as much as possible.

In contrast, complete officer staffing operations are applied to smaller vessels, such as minesweepers, PKGs (Patrol Killer Guided-missile), small patrol vessels, and MTBs (Multi-purpose Training Boats).

Since 2022, the Navy has been conducting a pilot program for this transition on select vessels. Currently, a total of twelve ships are involved in the trial: six destroyers, one frigate, and one landing ship are under increased officer staffing operations, while one small vessel from each of the previously mentioned classes, totaling four vessels, is undergoing complete officer staffing operations.

The ROK Navy reported that by implementing increased officer staffing and complete officer staffing across all Navy vessels by 2030, they expect to deploy approximately 500 petty officers and officers while reducing 1,200 enlisted personnel, leading to an overall reduction of around 700 service members.

According to the Navy, the replacement ratio of enlisted personnel to officers is 2.5 to 1, meaning one officer will take over the duties previously handled by 2.5 conscripts. This is expected to reduce the overall crew size by approximately 10%.

The Navy also stated that although the workload for officers has increased somewhat, they believe it can be managed through a task-sharing system, as during the trial phase on twelve ships, they were able to reduce manpower by around 180 personnel. In response to concerns about the increased workload for officers, the Navy plans to implement initiatives such as integrating dock watch duties, expanding the use of cooking equipment and semi-processed food supplies to reduce cooking tasks, and supporting programs for vessel cleaning, mooring assistance, and fuel supply services.

Meanwhile, as the Navy’s measures to address the decreasing manpower issue are crucial, there is a growing call for improving the treatment of petty officers and officers, who will play a key role in effective operational management, and for providing additional national support to help the Navy address these challenges.

Navy Sea Ghost demonstration in Busan (Naval News Photo)

The Navy is also advancing unmanned fleet and unmanned surface vessel projects to tackle manpower challenges and adapt to future battlefield environments. Earlier this year, Hanwha Ocean was selected as the preferred bidder for the conceptual design of a reconnaissance unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) and a mine warfare unmanned surface vessel (USV). Additionally, LIG Nex1 achieved success during the firing test of the Poniard from an unmanned surface vessel as part of the Foreign Comparative Testing (FCT) at RIMPAC 2024 and was selected as the preferred bidder for the system development of the Navy’s reconnaissance USV.

Recently, DAPA (Defense Acquisition Program Administration) announced in its National Assembly audit report that a combat USV was selected for the “Integrated Requirement Planning” pilot project, which aims to shorten the acquisition period for advanced combat capabilities by integrating analysis, requirement verification, and preliminary research before the official requirement decision.

navalnews.com · by Eunhyuk Cha · October 21, 2024

6. U.S. dispels suspicion of little confidence in S. Korean intel over N.K. troop dispatch to Russia

Perhaps we are not confirming it because we have not yet figured out what to do about it? If we confirm it there will be demands for action and we may not know what action our political leaders are willing to approve.

Or is this strike two for the ROK/US alliance (Strike one being the terrible report by the MAC (UNC) that says that the nK filth balloons were caused by ROK loudspeaker broadcasts that were (allegedly) supposed to deter north Korea - someone on the MAC does not understand the purpose of psychological operations)

U.S. dispels suspicion of little confidence in S. Korean intel over N.K. troop dispatch to Russia | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · October 23, 2024

By Song Sang-ho

WASHINGTON, Oct. 22 (Yonhap) -- A State Department spokesperson on Tuesday rejected the notion of the United States having a lack of confidence in South Korea's intelligence confirming North Korea's troop dispatch to support Russia's war against Ukraine, as a cautious Washington has yet to confirm it.

Last week, Seoul's spy agency confirmed the North has decided to send around 12,000 troops to support Russia, including some 1,500 soldiers that it has already begun deploying. But the U.S. has not confirmed this, stoking suspicion that there could be a gap in intelligence analysis between the allies.

"It is not at all about confidence (in South Korean intelligence). Of course, we have a close and important partnership with our ROK partners," Vedant Patel, the department's deputy spokesperson, said, using the acronym for South Korea's official name, the Republic of Korea.

"When we are speaking on behalf of the United States and certainly, I am up here as a U.S. official speaking on these things, we want to make sure to have the most up-to-date and accurate assessment to offer you," he added.

Vedant Patel, the State Department's deputy spokesperson, speaks during a press briefing at the department in Washington on Oct. 22, 2024. (Yonhap)

Patel stressed that a process is still under way to verify reports of the North's troop dispatch.

"The United States has its own processes in place and our own assessments that we need to make before we can publicly say that we are seeing anything as it relates to a particularly policy area," he said.

"It is not at all a reflection of any country, whether it be the ROK or otherwise. It is not a reflection of that at all."

Asked if there are any discussions under way over what measures would be taken in response to the North's deployment, Patel refused to comment.

He reiterated that if true, the North's deployment to back Russia would be "incredibly dangerous."

"If it's true that DPRK soldiers are joining Putin's war against Ukraine, it certainly would mark a dangerous and highly concerning development," he said. DPRK stands for the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

"We are, of course, going to continue to consult with our allies and partners on the implications of such a dramatic move (that) certainly if true, would be another reckless and dangerous action both on the side of Russia, but of course on the side of the DPRK as well."

sshluck@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · October 23, 2024

7. Russian, N. Korean flags displayed together on Ukraine battlefield

Photo at the link: https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20241022001551315?section=nk/nk

(LEAD) Russian, N. Korean flags displayed together on Ukraine battlefield | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Han-joo · October 22, 2024

(ATTN: UPDATES with a unification ministry official's remarks in last 2 paras)

By Kim Han-joo

SEOUL, Oct. 22 (Yonhap) -- A pro-Russia Telegram account has posted a photo showing the Russian and North Korean flags side by side on a Ukrainian battlefield, indicating that North Korea has likely sent troops to support Russia in its prolonged war with Ukraine.

The image, shared by a blogger named @rvvoenkor_bot on Monday, showed the two flags raised together over a mine in Pokrovsk, one of the strongholds on Ukraine's eastern front.

The blogger said that the North Korean flag has recently been raised on a hill at the mine near the city, which is one of the suspected locations where North Korean soldiers are believed to be stationed.

On Friday, South Korea's National Intelligence Service announced that North Korea had decided to send approximately 12,000 special forces to support Russia in its prolonged war with Ukraine, with about 1,500 already deployed to Russia's Far East.

The deployment marks the first time North Korea has sent ground troops on such a large scale, though it has previously dispatched smaller groups of soldiers overseas to earn foreign currency.

So far, North Korea's state media has not made any official statements regarding its troop deployment to Russia.

A North Korean envoy to the United Nations on Monday dismissed the accusations from South Korea and Ukraine that it is sending soldiers to fight alongside Russia in the war in Ukraine as "groundless rumors," arguing its relations with Moscow are "legitimate and cooperative."

On Monday, Russian Ambassador to South Korea Georgy Zinoviev told First Vice Foreign Minister Kim Hong-kyun that the cooperation with North Korea is "not directed against South Korea's security interests" and claimed that the cooperation is "carried out within the framework of international law," the Russian Embassy in Seoul said in a Facebook post.

A South Korean unification ministry official said North Korea has never acknowledged the deployment of its soldiers, as it would be considered an illegal act.

"When the North engages in illegal activities, it does not explicitly acknowledge them," the official said on condition of anonymity, citing the 2010 sinking of the Cheonan warship that killed 46 South Korean sailors.

A team of multinational investigators concluded in 2010 that a North Korean torpedo was responsible for the sinking. However, the North still adamantly denies its involvement.

This image, captured from the Telegram account of @rvvoenkor_bot on Oct. 22, 2024, shows Russian and North Korean flags displayed side by side at one of Ukraine's battlefields. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

khj@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Han-joo · October 22, 2024

8. S. Korea to launch 3rd military spy satellite in December

S. Korea to launch 3rd military spy satellite in December | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · October 23, 2024

SEOUL, Oct. 23 (Yonhap) -- South Korea plans to launch its third military reconnaissance satellite in December, the state arms procurement agency said Wednesday, as part of efforts to bolster its surveillance capabilities on North Korea.

A SpaceX rocket carrying the satellite is scheduled to lift off in the third or fourth week of December, the Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) said, adding it is working with the U.S. company on the details of the launch.

The launch will take place as part of Seoul's plan to acquire five spy satellites by 2025 to better monitor North Korea with a space-based platform. South Korea has previously relied largely on satellite imagery provided by the United States.

This image, provided by the Agency for Defense Development, shows the concept for South Korea's space-based surveillance and reconnaissance system. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

South Korea's first two spy satellites were launched aboard SpaceX rockets in December last year and April, respectively.

The first satellite is equipped with an electro-optical and infrared sensor to capture detailed images of the Earth's surface, while the second one has synthetic aperture radar (SAR) sensors capable of collecting data regardless of weather conditions.

Excluding the first satellite, all four others will be equipped with SAR sensors.

Once all five spy satellites are launched and determined fit for operations, the military is expected to be able to monitor a certain target in North Korea every two hours.

South Korea plans to further bolster its surveillance capabilities by launching small reconnaissance satellites that weigh less than 500 kilograms and even smaller reconnaissance satellites weighing less than 100 kg aboard homegrown solid-fuel space rockets.

The launches for the small satellites are known to be scheduled between 2026 and 2028 and for the smaller satellites between 2028 and 2030.

yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · October 23, 2024

9. [Photo Breaking News] Multiple Russian Vehicles at N.Korea-Russia Border, Including Unidentified Cargo (6 photos)

Photos at the link: https://www.asiapress.org/rimjin-gang/2024/10/photo/nk-russia/

[Photo Breaking News] Multiple Russian Vehicles at N.Korea-Russia Border, Including Unidentified Cargo (6 photos)

asiapress.org

Freight cars covered with green sheets are lined up. A slogan reads "Toward New Victory!" A sign reading "Fire Safety" can be seen on the building in the background. There appears to be a tank for storing oil.On October 21, ASIAPRESS conducted an investigation from inside China into the activities in the border area of North Korea and Russia. The lower reaches of the Tumen River for about 17 kilometers serve as the border between North Korea and Russia, where a railway bridge is located. According to a report by Tokyo Newspaper journalist Yasunobu Shirouchi last December, North Korea used this bridge to transport military supplies, including artillery shells, to Russia by rail.Russian flatbed cars loaded with cargo wrapped in green sheets. The content of the flatbed cars are unknown.

◆Cargo wrapped in green sheets with unknown content was observed

Several Russian diesel locomotives with Cyrillic inscriptions and tank cars were seen on the North Korean side. In addition, at least 8 Russian freight cars with cargo covered with green sheets were visually confirmed. However, it was not possible to determine the content of this cargo, whether it was imported from Russia or exported from North Korea to Russia.

This month, both South Korea and Ukraine announced that North Korea has sent troops to support Russia's invasion of Ukraine. South Korea's National Intelligence Service revealed that 1,500 personnel have already entered Russia's Far East region.

The railway bridge connecting North Korea and Russia. Rason (in North Korea) is on the right, and Khasan (in Russia) is on the left. No trains were observed crossing the bridge on this day.The investigation conducted by ASIAPRESS took place in Fangchuan, Jilin Province, China, which borders North Korea and Russia. Tourist activity appeared normal, with no signs of heightened tension. No rail traffic was observed that day. (ASIAPRESS Editorial Staff)All photos were taken by ASIAPRESS from the Chinese side of the border on October 21, 2024.

A Russian diesel locomotive parked inside North Korea. Cyrillic letters are visible on the body.Russian fuel tank cars.A map of North Korea (ASIAPRESS)

• ＜Inside N. Korea＞ 'Don't say anything about S. Korean propaganda leaflets and broadcasts,'… Orders to soldiers on the front line
• ＜Inside N.Korea＞ After COVID, Defectors Forcibly Repatriated from China Face 5-10 Years of Harsh Punishment; Families Also Exiled Under Guilt-by-Association
• ＜Inside N. Korea＞ Signs of a change in agricultural policy: farms given the right to choose what they grow... “Our-style agricultural revolution” being promoted
• ＜Lighting Up N. Korea's Four Dark Years＞ (1) Almost the Only Escape Route -The New Generation ‘Donju’ Who Crossed the Sea Tell About COVID-19, Chaos, and Social Change
• ＜N. Korea Floods＞Officials Taking Lead in Recovery Work, Anxious About Being Watched by Residents; Some Officials Punished for Drinking Alcohol

asiapress.org

10. North Korean Troops Train in Russia as Moscow Deepens War Coalition

The amount of fear this action is causing is making Kim Jong Un believe his political warfare strategy is working. Even the reports of the deployments are creating friction within the ROK/US alliance as there are rumblings about the US not taking South Korean intelligence reports seriously.

North Korean Troops Train in Russia as Moscow Deepens War Coalition

South Korea’s intelligence agency says Pyongyang has sent around 1,500 troops to train in eastern Russia

https://www.wsj.com/world/north-korean-troops-train-in-russia-as-moscow-deepens-war-coalition-42854633?mod=Searchresults_pos6&page=1

By Dasl Yoon

Follow

 in Seoul and Thomas Grove

Follow

 in Warsaw

Oct. 22, 2024 2:46 pm ET

A South Korea telecast last week purported to show satellite imagery of North Korean personnel at a Russian military facility. Photo: Kim Jae-Hwan/Zuma Press

North Korea has sent hundreds of special forces to eastern Russia for training in recent weeks, according to South Korea’s main intelligence agency, as Moscow relies on Pyongyang and other partners, including Iran, to support its war effort in Ukraine.

Russian naval vessels transported around 1,500 North Korean special-forces troops to Russia this month, and Pyongyang has plans eventually to send as many as 12,000 soldiers to assist Russia, according to South Korea’s National Intelligence Service.

The U.S. and its North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies have warned that dispatching North Korean troops to the front lines in Ukraine would represent a major escalation in the conflict between Moscow and the Washington-led West.

Russia has been using growing numbers of Iranian and North Korean missiles as it wages a fierce air war, but welcoming foreign troops onto its soil would represent a new dimension in how Moscow works with its international partners.

Where North Korean soldiers have been reported

Locations with military bases where North Korean soldiers have been spotted

Locations where North Korean soldiers had been picked up

Port where North Korean weapons had been transferred by ship

RUSSIA

Blagoveshchensk

Khabarovsk

CHINA

Ussuriysk

Vladivostok

Rajin

NORTH

KOREA

Chongjin

Musudan

Hamhung

Sea of Japan

Pyongyang

SOUTH

KOREA

JAPAN

200 miles

East China Sea

200 km

Source: South Korean intelligence agency

Andrew Barnett/WSJ

U.S. officials told The Wall Street Journal they think a number of North Korean troops are being trained and equipped in Russia, but the evidence isn’t definitive, and it is unclear exactly how many have been sent and what they are doing there.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said on Tuesday that South Korean experts would brief alliance officials early next week about North Korea’s involvement in the war.

South Korean officials meanwhile have expressed alarm at the prospect that North Korean troops could gain battlefield experience. The South Korean government Tuesday called the deployment a “significant security threat” and warned it would take phased measures in response, possibly including lethal aid to Ukraine.

South Korea, one of the world’s fastest-growing weapons manufacturers, so far has declined to send lethal weapons to Kyiv, providing only supplies such as gas masks and emergency kits. South Korea has sold weapons to countries, such as the U.S. and Poland, that are supplying Ukraine’s military.

The Ukraine war, as it grinds through its third year, has strained Russia’s manpower and weapons supplies. North Korea and Iran previously had helped address Moscow’s hunger for resources by supplying ammunition, drones and weapons.

South Korea’s intelligence agency last week released a satellite image it said showed North Korean personnel gathered at a Russian training center. Photo: handout/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

For Moscow, the presence of North Korean troops adds a new element to the partnerships the Kremlin has cultivated since the start of the war with other countries, which have poured resources into Moscow’s war effort and undermined the West on the global stage. 

The deepening involvement of North Korea and Iran in the war also serves Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategic aims, allowing Moscow to export its tensions with the West to the Middle East and East Asia, where the U.S. traditionally has held more sway.

North Korea and Russia haven’t confirmed the presence of North Korean troops, but Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday that cooperation between the two countries wasn’t directed against third countries.

When Putin flew to North Korea in June to work out the details of an agreement on military cooperation, Pyongyang was ready to offer artillery shells in exchange for food and fuel, analysts said. But, according to a former Russian intelligence officer briefed on details of the pact, the pact eventually included a secret clause giving North Korea permission to send a first wave of about 1,000 North Korean soldiers to Ukraine to learn firsthand how to execute a war from Russia’s experience there. He said more would follow.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un oversaw special-forces training last month. Photo: South Korea’s National Intelligence Service

For now, most of the North Korean troops are being kept at safe distances from the front line but are being shown how the Russians handle logistics and front-line tactics while gaining a new understanding of drone warfare, he said.

The North Korean troops that were sent recently arrived first in the eastern Russian city of Vladivostok, South Korea’s spy agency said. Once there, the North Koreans were issued Russian military uniforms, then sent to cities across Russia’s Far East for training, the agency said.

The North Korean troops could play a variety of roles, as missile technicians, front-line soldiers or even laborers supporting logistics, analysts said. On top of deeper pledges of support and transfer of military technology from Russia, the regime of Kim Jong Un will draw lessons from the army’s firsthand observation of modern military tactics and how North Korean weapons operate on the battlefield, analysts say. 

North Korea is moving closer to the Russian sphere of influence by honoring the recent military treaty signed by Putin and Kim, and taking the chance to learn how to win a war of attrition and grind down an opposing side with artillery, said Benjamin R. Young, a nuclear security fellow at Rand Corp., a think tank based in Santa Monica, Calif. 

“No drill or exercise can replicate real wartime experience and this could pay dividends in the event a future conflict plays out on the Korean Peninsula,” Young said.

North Korean rocket shells acquired by the Ukrainian military. Photo: South Korea’s National Intelligence Service

North Korea has a history of dispatching soldiers as technicians—who ended up flying jet fighters for the Egyptian air force, and possibly dozens of soldiers to Syria and Zimbabwe—but deploying thousands of troops for Russia poses risks to the Kim regime, said Fyodor Tertitskiy, a North Korea specialist at Kookmin University in Seoul. 

North Korean soldiers, if deployed to the front lines, could surrender to Ukraine or escape, but what’s more dangerous for the Kim regime is potential ideological contamination, he said. Most of them have never been abroad and have spent their lives inside North Korea’s tightly controlled information bubble. 

“It’s out of character and highly risky for North Korea,” Tertitskiy said. “It will be hard for Kim to motivate his people to fight in a faraway land without knowing why they’re fighting.”

Russia’s use of North Korean troops and weapons mirrors its growing military ties with Iran, which has supplied missiles and Shahed drones to the war effort. While relations between Russia and Iran have waxed and waned for years under Putin, the war has strengthened the ties. The cooperation helps in Putin’s efforts to export instability.

“Putin has an interest in seeing tensions rise on the Korean Peninsula, just as they did in the Middle East, because that means one more conflict for the West to have to deal with and even less attention, energy and money for Ukraine, which is their strategic goal,” said a senior European intelligence official.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian traveled to Russia this week for a summit of Brics nations (the bloc comprises Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). The leader is planning a separate trip to Moscow to sign what the two countries have referred to as an “All-encompassing Strategic Partnership Agreement.”

“The agreement is very important because it should form the basis for further development of relations between Russia and Iran,” said Yury Lyamin, a senior researcher at the Center for the Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a Moscow-based defense think tank.

Russia already has developed a relationship with Iran’s allied militias in the Middle East, which have been escalating violence with Israel since last year’s Oct. 7 attack by Hamas. U.S. intelligence agencies have warned that Russia could send the Houthi militants in Yemen advanced antiship cruise missiles in retaliation for the Biden administration’s support for Ukrainian strikes inside Russia with U.S.-provided weapons. Such a move would sharpen the threat to U.S. warships in the Middle East, where the Houthis have been attacking shipping in solidarity with the Palestinians since Israel invaded Gaza. 

While Western support for Ukraine has been driven by strategic defense interests and what NATO calls shared Western values, Moscow’s alliances with North Korea and Iran remain largely transactional, said Alexander Gabuev, Director of Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin.

“They’re handsomely paid, they can test their hardware, they’re provided with combat experience,” he said, adding that it didn’t mean the relationships don’t have staying power.

“Even if it is transactional, there’s no deal the West could offer at this point that would tempt any of them to sell their partners down the river,” he said.

Lara Seligman, James Marson and Dan Michaels also contributed to this article.

Write to Dasl Yoon at dasl.yoon@wsj.com and Thomas Grove at thomas.grove@wsj.com

11. What We Know About North Korea’s Role in the Ukraine War

​Kim Jong Un is finally getting the press he wants but it is only because he is supporting Russia.

What We Know About North Korea’s Role in the Ukraine War

North Korea’s supply of munitions has already been critical to the Russian war effort. Now, there are growing fears that it is sending troops as well.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/23/world/asia/north-korea-troops-russia-ukraine.html

A television news report in Seoul on Monday showing soldiers believed to be from North Korea standing in line to receive supplies in Russia.Credit...Ahn Young-Joon/Associated Press

By Choe Sang-Hun

Reporting from Seoul

Oct. 23, 2024

Updated 3:19 a.m. ET

Five months ago, the autocratic leaders of Russia and North Korea signed a treaty on mutual defense and cooperation, deepening ties between the two countries that stretch back beyond the Cold War.

Now, there are growing fears that North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, will assist his Russian counterpart, Vladimir V. Putin, by sending soldiers to the battlefield in Ukraine. Mr. Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine more than two and half years ago, starting a war of attrition that has killed and wounded more than 600,000 Russian troops.

On Friday, South Korea’s intelligence agency said that Russian navy ships had begun transporting North Korean ​troops to the Russian Far East ​earlier this month. On Tuesday, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said North Korea was preparing thousands of soldiers to fight on the Russian side.

Moscow and Pyongyang have denied the claims, and no hard evidence has emerged that North Korean troops have walked onto the battlefield yet.

North Korea has one of the world’s largest militaries, with 1.2 million soldiers, but it has not fought in a major conflict since the 1950-53 Korean War. For decades, Pyongyang claimed that its military buildup was for deterrence or war on the Korean Peninsula. Dispatching troops to the Ukrainian front would mark its first major intervention in a​n overseas war.

Here’s what to know about North Korea’s growing military ties with Russia.

How is North Korea helping Russia?

Mr. Kim and Mr. Putin have met twice since last year, signing the treaty in Pyongyang in June. Mr. Putin has relied on Mr. Kim to replenish his dwindling weapons stockpiles.

South Korean defense officials have said that North Korea has sent more than 13,000 shipping containers of artillery rounds, anti-tank rockets and KN-23 short-range ballistic missiles to Russia since August 2023. It also dispatched technicians and officers to help the Russians operate its weapons and to collect data on how its missiles fared in modern warfare, especially against Western air-defense systems.

South Korea’s National Intelligence Service said on Friday that Russian navy ships transported 1,500 North Korean special operation forces to the Russian port city of Vladivostok between Oct. 8 and Oct. 13. The troops were then said to move deeper inland to the cities of Ussuriysk, Khabarovsk and Blagoveshchensk. They were given Russian military uniforms, weapons and forged identification documents so that they could pose as people from eastern Siberia, where indigenous Buryat and Yakut people bear Asian facial features, according to the intelligence agency.

The South also released satellite photos showing what it called Russian navy ship movements near a North Korean port and hundreds of suspected North Korean soldiers assembling in Ussuriysk and Khabarovsk last Wednesday.

Image

A handout photograph from South Korea’s National Intelligence Service that the agency said shows North Korean personnel gathered at military facility in the Russian city of Ussuriysk, on Oct. 16.Credit...South Korea's National Intelligence Service, via Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

“The troops are expected to be deployed to the front lines once they complete their acclimatization training,” the agency said.

North Korea is prepared to send more troops to the Russian war effort, it added, noting the frequent traffic of Russian transport planes between Pyongyang and Vladivostok.

What do North Korea and Russia want?

Mr. Putin wants to overcome the heavy casualties that Russia has suffered on the front lines in Ukraine.

North Korea has been one of the few countries to publicly support the Russian invasion. That backing has provided Mr. Kim with rare leverage to chart a new course for foreign relations after the collapse of his negotiations with former President Donald J. Trump.

Mr. Kim’s military support guaranteed that Mr. Putin would veto any new American-led attempt to impose new sanctions on North Korea at the U.N. Security Council and undermine efforts to enforce the existing ones. North Korea has also been receiving oil from Russia, which would help it sustain its confrontational stance toward the United States and its allies, South Korean officials said.

Less clear is whether Mr. Putin will go so far as to help North Korea overcome technological hurdles in its nuclear and missile programs. Although it has conducted six nuclear tests and launched several intercontinental ballistic missiles, North Korea has yet to master technologies to enable its missiles to reach targets in the United States.

Image

A photo provided by North Korean state media showing President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia with Kim Jong-un at a ceremony in Pyongyang in June. The military ties between the two leaders have deepened.Credit...Korean Central News Agency, via Associated Press

Some analysts say that by sending troops to help Russia, North Korea was emulating a path that South Korea took decades ago.

Seoul cemented its alliance with Washington by committing nearly 320,000 troops to the Vietnam War, the largest foreign contingent that fought alongside American forces. In return, the United States helped modernize South Korea’s decrepit military. It also helped spur its ally’s economic growth with cheap loans.

How has the world responded?

While Moscow and Pyongyang have denied the existence of an arms deal, or reports of North Korean troops in Russia, Western officials, including Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III, have said that if a North Korean deployment was confirmed, it would be a serious development. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte warned that the move “would mark a significant escalation.”

The strongest reaction has been from South Korea, which has faced increasing belligerence from the North. Seoul has deemed the growing military ties between Moscow and Pyongyang “a grave security threat” and a violation of multiple United Nations resolutions barring any member nation’s military cooperation with North Korea.

On Tuesday, the office of the South Korean president, Yoon Suk Yeol, accused the North of “driving its young people into an unjustifiable war as mercenaries.”

It warned that it could take “phased countermeasures” to respond to the growing “military collusion” between Moscow and Pyongyang. Such steps could include supplying both defensive and offensive weapons to Ukraine, a senior South Korean official said on Tuesday, speaking on condition of anonymity.

So far, Seoul has limited its direct support for Ukraine to humanitarian and financial aid and nonlethal military equipment, such as mine detectors.

Image

Protesters in Seoul on Wednesday called on the South Korean government not to supply Ukraine with lethal arms.Credit...Jeon Heon-Kyun/EPA, via Shutterstock

South Korean officials say that by committing troops to Russian forces in Ukraine, North Korea hopes to win Russia’s military support in return, such as help in perfecting its nuclear program and modernizing its outdated conventional weapons systems. That assistance from Moscow would be crucial if the North started a war with the South.

According to Cha Du Hyeogn, a senior analyst at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul, the deepening military ties with Pyongyang “mean that Russia now regards North Korea’s nuclear weapons development not as a problem to solve but as something it can accept.”

Choe Sang-Hun is the lead reporter for The Times in Seoul, covering South and North Korea. More about Choe Sang-Hun

12. South Korea warns it can send arms to Ukraine after reports of North's troops in Russia

South Korea warns it can send arms to Ukraine after reports of North's troops in Russia

AP · by HYUNG-JIN KIM · October 22, 2024

World News

By  HYUNG-JIN KIM

Updated 9:03 PM EDT, October 22, 2024

AP · by HYUNG-JIN KIM · October 22, 2024

13. U.S. defense chief confirms North Korean troops are in Russia

Good. This is necessary to undermine the nK political warfare strategy which has as one line of effort to divide the RO/K/US alliance. Our initial public skepticism over ROK intelligence reports does not help the alliance.

U.S. defense chief confirms North Korean troops are in Russia

Ukraine and South Korea have repeatedly accused North Korea of sending troops to Russia to aid in its ongoing war.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/10/23/austin-north-korea-troops-russia/

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin delivers a speech at the Diplomatic Academy of Ukraine in Kyiv on Monday. (Efrem Lukatsky/AP)

By Missy Ryan

Updated October 23, 2024 at 6:27 a.m. EDT|Published October 23, 2024 at 6:20 a.m. EDT

ROME — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin confirmed that the U.S. government has evidence that North Korea has sent military forces to Russia, but he told reporters that the purpose of the deployment was not yet clear.

Ukraine and South Korea have repeatedly accused North Korea of sending troops to Russia to aid in its ongoing war. NATO and the United States had previously not confirmed the troop movements.

Following World news

Following

“Our analysts … continue to look at this. Now we are seeing evidence that there are North Korean troops that have gone to … Russia,” Austin said. “What exactly they’re doing is left to be seen. But, yes, there is evidence that there are DPRK troops in Russia,” he added, using the abbreviation for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

Asked about the intent of North Korea’s deployment, Austin said the United States is still trying to determine that.

“If they’re co-belligerents, if their intention is to participate in this war on Russia’s behalf, that is a very, very serious issue,” he said. “It will have impacts, not only in Europe. It will also impact things in the Indo-Pacific as well.”

Austin said it was unclear what North Korea would get out of the deployment. But he said it suggested significant weaknesses in the military capability of Russia, which has had to tap allies Iran and North Korea for aid in its war against Ukraine.

“This is an indication that he may be even in more trouble than most people realize,” Austin said of President Vladimir Putin.

Share

17

Comments

Understanding the Russia-Ukraine conflict

HAND CURATED

• What the Pentagon has learned from two years of war in Ukraine
• February 22, 2024
• Ukraine’s gamble in Russia has yet to slow Moscow’s eastern assault
• August 31, 2024
• Mapping Ukraine’s incursion in Russia
• August 12, 2024

View 3 more stories

By Missy Ryan

Missy Ryan writes about national security and defense for The Washington Post. She joined The Post in 2014 and has written about the Pentagon and the State Department. She has reported from Iraq, Ukraine, Egypt, Libya, Lebanon, Yemen, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Mexico, Peru, Argentina and Chile.

14. South’s DMZ loudspeakers are informing North Koreans about troops sent to Russia

Excellent.

I hope we do not read another ignorant report from the UNC MAC that this action is responsible for the north sending filth balloons to the South.

I also hope they will use Hyun Seung Lee's message as well.  https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7254655921467924481/

Please read George Hutchinson's work here:

Army of the Indoctrinated: The Suryong, the Soldier, and Information in the KPA

https://www.hrnk.org/documentations/army-of-the-indoctrinated-the-suryong-the-soldier-and-information-in-the-kpa/

South’s DMZ loudspeakers are informing North Koreans about troops sent to Russia

Stars and Stripes · by Yoo Kyong Chang · October 22, 2024

A portion of the Demilitarized Zone between North and South Korea is pictured on May 24, 2017. (Aaron Kidd/Stars and Stripes)

OSAN AIR BASE, South Korea — The South Korean loudspeakers blaring at the Demilitarized Zone are causing pain for the residents of the nearby Unification Village, the village chief told Stars and Stripes by phone Tuesday.

Since Monday, the South Korean armed forces’ “Voice of Freedom” has been broadcasting around-the-clock to North Koreans that their troops are deployed to Russia to support the invasion of Ukraine, Lee Wanbae said.

“Not only me but also my villagers have been hearing the anti-Pyongyang loudspeaker broadcasts all day long every day,” he said. “The military broadcasts it from 6 a.m. to 10 p.m. … and it is very loud. So, our ears are starting to hurt.”

Unification Village, in a buffer zone just outside the DMZ, is just over a mile from the no-man’s land dividing the two countries.

South Korea’s National Intelligence Service estimates the North has sent nearly 12,000 troops, including special forces, to support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a spokeswoman for the service told Stars and Stripes by phone Tuesday. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed in June to a mutual defense pact in the event either country is attacked.

Russian Ambassador to Seoul Georgy Zinoviev was summoned Monday by South Korea’s first vice foreign minister, Kim Hong-kyun, who “strongly” called for the immediate withdrawal of North Korean troops and to “stop relevant cooperation” with Pyongyang, according to a foreign ministry news release that day.

A spokesman for the South’s Ministry of National Defense declined to comment on the broadcasts. A spokesman for the country’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said they are produced by the armed forces’ Defense Psychological Operation Group.

The joint chiefs do not comment on the content of those broadcasts, the spokesman said.

It’s customary in South Korea for some government officials to speak to the media without identifying themselves.

Yoo Kyong Chang

Yoo Kyong Chang

Yoo Kyong Chang is a reporter/translator covering the U.S. military from Camp Humphreys, South Korea. She graduated from Korea University and also studied at the University of Akron in Ohio.

Stars and Stripes · by Yoo Kyong Chang · October 22, 2024

15. 3,000 N.K. soldiers sent to Russia; about 10,000 to be dispatched by around December: NIS

3,000 N.K. soldiers sent to Russia; about 10,000 to be dispatched by around December: NIS | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Oh Seok-min · October 23, 2024

SEOUL, Oct. 23 (Yonhap) -- Around 3,000 North Korean soldiers were believed to have been sent to Russia to support its ongoing war with Ukraine, and about 10,000 soldiers are expected to be deployed by December, South Korea's spy agency said Wednesday.

The National Intelligence Service (NIS) shared the information with lawmakers during a closed-door meeting of the parliamentary intelligence committee, according to officials.

The NIS earlier confirmed that the North was sending troops to Russia in line with its decision to dispatch around 10,000 soldiers to fight alongside Russia against Ukraine, and approximately 1,500 soldiers were transported in a first batch by around last week.

This photo, provided by the South Korean National Intelligence Service on Oct. 18, 2024, shows recent satellite imagery of North Korean soldiers gathering at a Russian military facility. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

graceoh@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Oh Seok-min · October 23, 2024

16. Why North Korean troops’ biggest impact in Ukraine may not be on the battlefield

To exploit any lessons learned and combat experience from Putin's War, the nKPA will have to be able to conduct training on a large scale in north Korea. To really benefit, the regime will have to commit resources on the scale of its nuclear and missile development to train the nKPA in such a way to gain any advantage from its combat experience in Ukraine. And of course training is perishable so such training will have to be sustained at high levels over time. Having 1,200 or 12,000 (or some number that might survive) combat experienced troops will not be a game changer for the nKPA unless they can translate that experience into effective training for the nKPA. A winter and summer training cycle iteration will not be sufficient to train the nKPA based on lessons from Putin's War.

Why North Korean troops’ biggest impact in Ukraine may not be on the battlefield

Experts say DPRK forces are unlikely to shift course of war but will bring more attention as Kyiv seeks to rally support

https://www.nknews.org/2024/10/why-north-korean-troops-biggest-impact-in-ukraine-may-not-be-on-the-battlefield/

Anton Sokolin October 23, 2024

North Korean paratroopers during infiltration drills at the Kangdong Training Grounds | Image: KCTV (March 16, 2024)

North Korea’s reported deployment of soldiers to support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is unlikely to shift the course of fighting on the ground, but it could have a major impact on the battle to shape narratives around the war.

Experts told NK News this week that the DPRK’s alleged plans to send 12,000 elite troops will bolster bilateral ties and be a boon to Russia in its war of attrition in Ukraine.

But they emphasized that important questions remain unanswered about where Russia will dispatch North Korean soldiers and who will command them, stating that these issues could disrupt cooperation and limit the effectiveness of the DPRK troops.

The biggest consequence of a North Korean deployment could come in the increased media attention to the war, as Ukraine highlights the DPRK threat to rally international support from allies like South Korea.

COMMAND AND CONTROL

A key challenge for Russian and North Korean forces will be to sort command and control issues and smooth out their collaboration on the ground, according to experts.

Retired ROK Lt. Gen. Chun In-bum raised questions of whether DPRK troops will operate as a unified group, in small units under Russian command or with their own leaders, noting that language barriers will complicate cooperation with Russian troops.

Joost Oliemans, an expert on the North Korean military, noted that “doctrinal differences” in how the two countries’ militaries operate could also require the DPRK soldiers to undergo retraining if plans call for their full integration with Russian forces.

But DPRK forces likely won’t be embedded in Russian units due to concerns about soldiers’ exposure to outside information, according to Daniel Pinkston of Troy University, as this could cause discipline problems and even lead some troops to desert or defect. 

Regardless of how the two militaries end up cooperating, the experts agreed that the North Korean troops will seek to learn from observing and participating in actual military operations in Ukraine. 

However, Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi of Tokyo International University said that effective command will be necessary for the North Korean soldiers to gain combat experience that is useful to the Korean People’s Army (KPA).

“An individual soldier’s skills are important, but if command and control isn’t right, it’s useless.”

Kim Jong Un with military officers including top missile official Kim Jong Sik (right) inside an underground nuclear missile facility | Image: Rodong Sinmun (Oct. 23, 2024)

DONBAS OR KURSK

Another key unanswered question is where the North Korean troops will go with options including engaging in direct combat with Ukrainian forces in Donbas or helping Russia fend off Kyiv’s incursion in the Kursk region.

“If they’re assigned to guarding bases or supplying convoys in places [like Kursk or Bryansk,] that would free up Russian soldiers for front-line duties,” Pinkston said.

He also suggested DPRK troops might support maintenance and operation of DPRK-supplied weapons like ballistic missiles.

Hinata-Yamaguchi suggested that North Korean leadership would likely push for their officers to get real experience commanding troops in “unpredictable wartime conditions,” inevitably leading them to fight in other parts of occupied Ukraine as well.

Any DPRK push for broader involvement could place Pyongyang and Moscow on a collision course, however, according to Chris Monday, a professor at Dongseo University.

“Putin may want to keep them out of sight, performing guard duty or construction, in Kursk, but Kim will want to make a ‘splash’ by having them storm some outpost to show their prowess in combat.”

Oliemans called a deployment of North Korean troops to Kursk plausible but expressed doubt that this will result in a “dramatic change on the front lines.” He explained that the reported 12,000-strong contingent “is a lot, but not enough to fuel a full offensive.”

“If the deployment doesn’t end up too costly I could even see it being the trial run of greater involvement in the future.”

Shin Seung-ki, a senior analyst at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, questioned whether DPRK special forces will prove effective in Ukraine, stating that their skills in covert operations likely won’t be applicable to the “trench warfare” in Donbas.

He added that such units are likely to “perform only slightly better than regular infantry.”

Yet Monday emphasized that both Ukrainian and Russian forces are seriously exhausted after nearly three years of a grueling war of attrition, suggesting that North Korean soldiers could provide Russia an edge.

Lt. Gen. Chun noted that the troop deployment is not without risk for Pyongyang, stating that it would be a “major embarrassment” to the Kim regime if North Korean soldiers underperform or suffer heavy losses.

But “no matter what, this will strengthen the Russia-North Korea relationship,” he conceded.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky with defense minister Rustem Umerov, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi and Head of the General Staff Anatoliy Barhylevych during a meeting | Image: Office of the President of Ukraine (Oct. 21, 2024)

MEDIA MATTERS

While it remains unclear what impact North Korean troops could have on the ground in Ukraine, the reports of their deployment are already shaping another conflict — the battle to control the narrative about the war itself.

Ukraine and South Korea have been at the forefront of efforts to publicize DPRK military deployments to the conflict, with Volodymyr Zelensky publicly supporting the allegations and Seoul’s intelligence agency taking the unusual move to release detailed evidence of troop movements.

Predictably, the Kremlin dismissed reports about DPRK deployments as “contradictory,” while Pyongyang called them “groundless.” But unusually, both the U.S. and NATO have declined to confirm the dispatch of North Korean troops to date, emphasizing that they’re still looking into the reports.

Monday of Dongseo University noted that Kyiv and Seoul have publicized their claims about the DPRK troops at a time when Zelensky is seeking Western support for his “Victory Plan.”

“The timing is suspicious,” he said. “We have to be skeptical. Along with real war, there is an informational war.”

The expert explained that it’s in Ukraine’s interest to play up the North Korea threat to expedite military and financial support, especially after its “gamble in Kursk did not pay off.”

Yang Uk, a military expert at the Asan Institute, reiterated that Zelensky’s public comments about DPRK troops seek to rally allies by framing the deployment as a global security threat.

But Oliemans said this does not mean that Kyiv and Seoul’s claims about deployments are untrue, emphasizing that the situation is developing rapidly.

“Preliminary Ukrainian intel, despite having reasons to exaggerate, didn’t seem to anticipate such a large deployment,” he said.

However, Oliemans questioned whether the West or South Korea will have a “response of any real significance at the ready,” stating that “voices calling for action could be drowned out by those fearing escalation.”

Seoul publicly warned this week that it could send weapons to Ukraine in response to the alleged DPRK troop deployment.

Chun suggested that Seoul might send defensive weapons like anti-aircraft missiles to Kyiv, but Pinkston said deploying ROK troops is “virtually impossible” due to political divisions in South Korea’s National Assembly.

The experts noted that any support to Ukraine could also strain ties with Russia and pull it deeper into the European conflict, though Seoul could still provide humanitarian aid and help rebuild infrastructure.

Monday emphasized that Seoul has limited options to respond, even as North Korea’s cooperation with Russia risks emboldening it to “provoke and threaten South Korea.”

“The U.S. is dealing with the election chaos and war in the Middle East,” he said. “South Korea may have to act alone.”

Edited by Bryan Betts

17. N. Korean leader urges bolstering war deterrence, citing U.S. nuclear threats

We must not lose sight of the fact that Kim Jong Un is "externalizing" the threats to deal with potential internal instability and resistance to the regime.

N. Korean leader urges bolstering war deterrence, citing U.S. nuclear threats | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Han-joo · October 23, 2024

By Kim Han-joo

SEOUL, Oct. 23 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has once again called for enhancing the country's war deterrence, including the readiness of its nuclear capabilities, in response to what he described as growing nuclear threats from the United States, state media said Wednesday.

Kim made the remarks during his inspection of "strategic missile bases," the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said in an English-language dispatch. The report did not specify the location or the date of the inspection.

"As was stressed on several occasions recently, the U.S. strategic nuclear means pose ever-increasing threat to the security environment of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and the long-term threats urgently demand that the DPRK more definitely bolsters its war deterrence and takes a thorough and strict counteraction posture of the nuclear forces," the dispatch said.

During the inspection, Kim reviewed the key functions and capabilities of the missile bases' launch facilities, as well as the operational readiness of the strategic missile units, according to the KCNA.

Kim also underscored the importance of further modernizing and reinforcing the missile bases, ensuring that all facilities are fully prepared to maintain a robust counteraction posture, the report added.

North Korea has ratcheted up tensions in recent weeks ahead of the upcoming U.S. election, just two weeks away, disclosing its uranium enrichment facility, launching ballistic missiles and sending trash-carrying balloons across the border.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (R) inspects a strategic missile base, in this photo released by the North's Korean Central News Agency on Oct. 23, 2024. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

khj@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Han-joo · October 23, 2024

18. How Australia and South Korea Are Recrafting Their Relationship and Fortifying the Indo-Pacific

Excerpts:

Despite the significant appeal of Pillar 2, AUKUS still faces challenges. Many voters in Australia remain skeptical of the deal, either because of its long timeline, costs involved, or the perception that it makes a contingency with China more likely than not. Although some states are on board, Canberra will have to continue expending significant diplomatic capital, particularly across the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, to convince the region that AUKUS is in their interests. The United States and United Kingdom do not have the same burden because they are located much farther away from the region.

Expanding ties between Australia and South Korea is an opportunity to bring skeptics on board with the AUKUS deal. Both countries share common liberal values, are similarly anxious about an assertive China, and want the United States to expand its security presence in Asia to defend the former and deter the latter. AUKUS, U.N. Command, and weapons trade provide platforms for middle power cooperation and alignment between South Korea and Australia while defanging accusations that these platforms are exclusionary.

How Australia and South Korea Are Recrafting Their Relationship and Fortifying the Indo-Pacific - War on the Rocks

Arius M. Derr and Hannah Cho

warontherocks.com · by Arius M. Derr · October 23, 2024

Australia and South Korea share a comprehensive strategic partnership rooted in their defense of freedom and democracy in the Korean War. This shared security and economic interdependence between the region’s most prominent middle powers promote a free and open Indo-Pacific and form an important coalition of liberal democracies opposed to illiberal encroachment from China, North Korea and Russia.

AUKUS, the ongoing defense technology agreement between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, presents engagement opportunities and clear incentives for South Korea. The main thrust of the deal is the delivery of conventionally armed nuclear-powered submarines to Australia’s navy. But Pillar 2 emphasizes “security and defense-related science, technology, industrial bases, and supply chains” in conjunction with like-minded partners.

South Korea brings advanced capabilities in semiconductor and quantum technology production, while Australia offers a collaborative space in autonomous systems. Marrying these complementary strengths can accelerate the modernization of allied military forces in the region, enhancing their strategic posture and pushing the boundaries of what it means to be a middle power. For Washington, it’s reassuring that two critical allies are both proactively expanding their defense capabilities, share similar threat perceptions, and are seeking to lock in and compound their alliance with the United States.

Become a Member

SHARP APPEAL

There is robust debate in Canberra about whether it is wise to bet so strongly on a country on the precipice of re-electing Donald Trump, whose disdain for U.S. security commitments abroad generates real uncertainty in Australia, South Korea, and elsewhere. But these concerns have so far been outweighed by the belief that China poses an immediate threat to national security. President Xi Jinping has presided over the largest military build-up since World War II, overtaking the U.S. Navy in total numbers and using these capabilities to bully, harass, and delegitimize smaller states across Southeast Asia and claim vast swathes of the South China Sea. There are increasingly loud signals that a Taiwan invasion is inevitable.

At the same time, Australia and South Korea are hesitant to delink significantly from Asia’s largest economy, which accounts for around a quarter of their overall trade respectively. The challenge for Canberra and Seoul is balancing commerce and exchange with China while proactively defending the values, rules, and norms that allow both small and large states in the region to thrive.

One minilateral mechanism that was supposed to help with this, the Quad, has accomplished relatively little. Although Australia, along with Japan, the United States, and India, re-initiated the Quad in 2017 as a traditional security coordinating body, the grouping today is almost entirely non-military. The refocus on norms proliferation and knowledge-sharing hasn’t convinced Indo-Pacific states that the grouping is particularly impactful, however. With India increasingly looking like the odd one out, the Quad’s bandwidth to influence real change in the region seems to be narrowing.

Paradoxically, the Quad’s lack of impact may make it more appealing to regional actors who are happy to sign on to statements without taking any action. Meanwhile, AUKUS’s sharper edges and explicit military and technology goals have generated a more positive reaction in the region, specifically from states involved in maritime disputes with China. This may be because while many in Southeast Asia prefer to hedge between China and the United States, the perceived benefits of AUKUS are tangible and immediate enough to draw out the self-interest of these states and risk backlash from Beijing.

WORTH THE RISK

Beijing is highly critical of AUKUS and derides it as a Cold War anachronism that worsens regional tensions. This has not deterred South Korea and others from seeking out ways to participate. South Korea sees particular value in AUKUS’s so-called Pillar 2 and its proposed framework to enhance cyber security. State-sponsored cybercriminals in the region regularly target Korean defense and nuclear technology, and North Korea’s hacking army targets the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the U.S. Air Force. Stronger cyber cooperation through advanced technology-sharing agreements like Pillar 2 is crucial to identifying, defending, and deterring such cyber crime. It also provides opportunities to multilateralize domestic initiatives like the newly established Defense AI Center. This is part of an ongoing effort by the Yoon Suk Yeol administration to pull in resources from the public and private sectors and coordinate effective responses to emerging threats. Korea has the third-most AI patents in the world, while Australia attracts significant investment in the AI industry. Pillar 2 can serve as the mechanism to pool these resources and amplify mutual capabilities.

The immediate and narrow benefits AUKUS offers for participants have attracted buy-in from around the region. Indonesia, for example, came out strongly against the deal when it was first announced in September 2021 and suggested AUKUS challenged the non-proliferation regime. Three years later, however, president-elect Prabowo Subianto signed a landmark defense cooperation deal with Australia that will almost certainly include technology transfers under Pillar 2 to promote “joint activities and exercises” between the two countries’ militaries.

South Korea faces similar and potentially more severe security threats from China considering its close proximity and greater economic exposure (South Korea’s trade as a percentage of gross domestic product is nearly double Australia’s). Seoul backed Canberra’s July 2024 condemnation of Chinese state-sponsored cyber crime targeting Australian government and business networks. With Australia and South Korea already advancing their technological defense capabilities, cooperation between their cyber and technology innovation sectors envisioned by AUKUS Pillar 2 can amplify both countries’ abilities to defend against new and emerging threats in cyberspace.

Spurred by these security challenges and seeking ways to diversify trade away from China, South Korea is quickly becoming a top arms exporter, shipping out some US$14 billion in missiles, rocket systems, Howitzers, tanks, and other material to a dozen countries last year. The Yoon administration envisions South Korea as a top four weapons supplier by 2027, and South Korean defense firms are expanding their footprint in Australia. Hanwha — the South Korean conglomerate that won a US$1.6 billion contract this year to deliver dozens of Chunmoo multiple launch rocket systems to Poland as part of a record defense contract signed months after Russia invaded Ukraine — is scheduled to build 129 next-generation “Redback” infantry fighting vehicles for the Australian army at a state-of-the-art factory an hour west of Melbourne. When the factory opened this year, Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defense Richard Marles called it a testament to Australia’s and South Korea’s “strategic” relationship “cemented through defense” cooperation.

Against this backdrop, expanding AUKUS to include South Korea would be a practical step to promote its diversity, representation, and legitimacy. Forging greater ties with a like-minded democracy in the region has relatively low political costs for Australia and helps assuage the concerns mentioned above about whether Australia is too dependent on a potentially unreliable security sponsor in the White House. South Korea and Australia took a step toward such collaboration at their most recent 2+2 talks in May 2024, which Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong described as a “cornerstone” of the South Korean–Australian partnership. The talks focused on deepening security and economic cooperation to reinforce shared visions of the Indo-Pacific and broader rules-based international order. There is mutual recognition in Seoul and Australia that they are represent pivotal, like-minded partners with which to promote democratic liberal values, stand up against Chinese aggression, and deter a possible war against Taiwan.

THE NORTH KOREA ANGLE

AUKUS and defense contracts are two significant platforms on which Australia and South Korea are reinforcing their relationship to address security challenges in the Indo-Pacific. For South Korea in particular, aligning with a similarly positioned democratic middle power in Asia that shares many of its priorities is one way to broaden its gaze beyond the important but long-calcified North Korea issue.

A 2023 government assessment of South Korea’s Indo-Pacific strategy supports this shift to protect Seoul’s “vital interest in the stability and prosperity” of the region. This aligns South Korea’s strategic security goals more closely with Australia’s, as outlined in the latter’s 2024 National Defense Strategy, which emphasizes the importance of collective security to insulate from regional instability caused by a revisionist China and its competition for pre-eminence with the United States.

Whenever North Korea forces South Korea to pay attention again, either due to a major provocation such as a nuclear test or border attack or an opportunity at détente like Pyongyang’s sudden about-face in early 2018, the Kim Jong Un regime will be negotiating (or menacing) with close backing from Russia. In addition to enhanced alliance and nuclear planning mechanisms with the United States, South Korea can further mitigate the new Russian–North Korean axis by sustaining its partnership with Australia.

Although inter-Korean relations may seem less serious from Canberra’s perspective, Australia is committed to enforcing the international sanctions regime against the North and would necessarily contribute personnel and material under its United Nations Command obligations in the event of a contingency.

ROUGH SEAS AHEAD?

Despite the significant appeal of Pillar 2, AUKUS still faces challenges. Many voters in Australia remain skeptical of the deal, either because of its long timeline, costs involved, or the perception that it makes a contingency with China more likely than not. Although some states are on board, Canberra will have to continue expending significant diplomatic capital, particularly across the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, to convince the region that AUKUS is in their interests. The United States and United Kingdom do not have the same burden because they are located much farther away from the region.

Expanding ties between Australia and South Korea is an opportunity to bring skeptics on board with the AUKUS deal. Both countries share common liberal values, are similarly anxious about an assertive China, and want the United States to expand its security presence in Asia to defend the former and deter the latter. AUKUS, U.N. Command, and weapons trade provide platforms for middle power cooperation and alignment between South Korea and Australia while defanging accusations that these platforms are exclusionary.

Become a Member

Arius M. Derr is a Research Officer at the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre (SDSC) and a doctoral researcher at The Australian National University. His work focuses on U.S. nuclear policy and U.S.-DPRK relations.

Hannah Cho studies economics, commerce and international relations at The Australian National University.

Image: The Australian Government via Wikimedia Commons

Commentary

warontherocks.com · by Arius M. Derr · October 23, 2024

​19. Zelenskyy calls on allies 'not to hide', respond to North Korean involvement in war

Zelenskyy calls on allies 'not to hide', respond to North Korean involvement in war

23 Oct 2024 09:29AM

channelnewsasia.com

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy attends a press conference, at the NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Oct 17, 2024. (Photo: REUTERS/Yves Herman)

23 Oct 2024 09:29AM

Bookmark

WhatsApp Telegram Facebook Twitter Email LinkedIn

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called on allies on Tuesday (Oct 22) "not to hide" and to respond to evidence of North Korean involvement in Russia's war in Ukraine.

He said in his nightly address that Ukraine had information about the preparation of two units - possibly up to 12,000 North Korean troops - to take part in the war alongside Russian forces.

"This is a challenge, but we know how to respond to this challenge. It is important that partners do not hide from this challenge as well," Zelenskyy said.

The head of Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence told the US publication The War Zone that Kyiv expected North Korean forces to turn up on Wednesday in Russia's southern Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces launched an incursion in August.

"We are waiting for the first units tomorrow in the Kursk direction, Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov told the media outlet. "It is unclear at the moment how many or how they will be equipped. We will see after a couple of days."

In his remarks, Zelenskyy said neither North Korea nor Russia took any account of the number of dead in a conflict.

"But all of us in the world have an equal interest in ending the war, not in prolonging it. We must therefore stop Russia and its accomplices," he said.

"If North Korea can intervene in a war in Europe, then the pressure on this regime is definitely insufficient".

British Defence Secretary John Healey said on Tuesday it was "highly likely" that North Korea had begun sending hundreds of troops to help Russia in the more than 2-1/2-year-old conflict.

A senior official at South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol's office said Seoul may consider directly supplying weapons to Ukraine as part of measures to counter military ties between North Korea and Russia.

A top US diplomat said on Monday that Washington was consulting with its allies on the implications of North Korean involvement and added that such a development would be a "dangerous and highly concerning development" if true.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said on Monday the dispatch of North Korean troops would significantly escalate the conflict.

Source: Reuters/ec

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com