Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

"There are only two ways to approach planning for the collapse of North Korea: to be ill-prepared or to be really ill-prepared."

--Dr. Kurt Campbell, DASD, 1 May 1998

"If you concentrate exclusively on victory, while no thought for the after effect, you may be too exhausted to profit by peace, while it is almost certain that the peace will be a bad one, containing the germs of another war."

--B.H. Liddel-Hart

"If in taking a native den one thinks chiefly of the market that he will establish there on the morrow, one does not take it in the ordinary way."

--Lyautey: The Colonial Role of the Army,

Revue Des Deux Mondes, 15 February 1900

1. North Korean Soldiers Arrive on Russia’s Front Line. How Ready Are They to Fight?

2. S. Korean delegation to brief NATO this week on N. Korean troops in Russia

3. S. Korea boosts cooperation with NATO, US in response to NK troops aiding Russia

4. Opinion | South Korea’s arms exports are reshaping the global defence landscape

5. How NK's deployment of troops to Russia could impact peace on Korean Peninsula

6. Behind North Korea’s closed curtains: the Kim regime’s ongoing struggle against collapse

7. Seoul-Kyiv cooperation in cognitive operation

8. Escalating conflict (Korea)

9. Signs point to N. Korean troops in Russia-Ukraine combat zone

10. North Korea's military personnel in Russia expected to hit 5,000

11. ‘Ready to fight tonight’: Strykers take their turn as Army’s rotational force in South Korea

12. Poland declined Ukraine’s request for South Korean weapons transfer

13. North Korean Defectors from the North Korean Military: “Comrades, Don’t Be Bullets for No Reason”

14. Commentary: Why North Korean troops in Russia are raising concerns in South Korea

15. South Korea lawmaker’s leaked messages on targeting North’s forces in Ukraine draw outrage

1. North Korean Soldiers Arrive on Russia’s Front Line. How Ready Are They to Fight?

We are going to keep speculating until we can see how the nK forces are actually employed and fare in their first fights.

World
Asia

North Korean Soldiers Arrive on Russia’s Front Line. How Ready Are They to Fight?

The first wave appears young and with physiques that don’t scream strapping commando though Kim Jong Un has reasons to hold his elite forces back

https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/north-korean-soldiers-arrive-on-russias-front-line-how-ready-are-they-to-fight-84f885fa

By Dasl Yoon

and Timothy W. Martin

in Seoul and Jane Lytvynenko in Kyiv

Oct. 26, 2024 11:00 pm ET

‘Strongest in the world’

Kim enjoys near absolute power in information-repressed North Korea. That limits any political blowback he could face at home should soldiers die in action. The families of the troops have apparently been isolated and moved en masse to unknown locations, to limit knowledge of the Russia deployment, South Korea’s intelligence chief told lawmakers this week.

By December, North Korea could end up sending a total of 10,000 troops to Russia, South Korean officials estimate. Kim often hails his military as the “strongest in the world.” But North Korea hasn’t engaged so deeply in a major conflict since the 1950-53 Korean War.

Russia and North Korea signed a mutual defense pact in June, during Putin’s visit to Pyongyang. Moscow can offer Pyongyang much more than it can receive, such as political cover at the United Nations, humanitarian aid and military technology.

But one thing that the Kim regime can provide is people.

North Korea is one of the world’s most militarized societies, with roughly a third of the country’s 26 million people either enlisted or in reserve forces. Men face compulsory military duty of eight to 10 years; women must serve for five years. Earlier this month, some 1.4 million young people applied to join or return to the army, North Korean state media reported.

South Korea’s intelligence agency said part of the deployed North Korean troops are members of its special-operations force. The force has an estimated 200,000 personnel, who are trained to destroy critical military installations and assassinate key personnel, according to South Korea’s 2022 Defense White Paper.

A South Korean news broadcast shows satellite images of a Russian military facility that officials said contained North Korean soldiers. Photo: Kim Jae-Hwan/Zuma Press

Earlier this month, North Korean state media revealed images of its special forces training with laser-tag style gear designed to simulate combat, of a kind long-used by Western militaries.

If they were thrown into the front lines, the North Koreans would enter the killing fields of a war that many of their Russian comrades consider a meat grinder. Russia can recruit more than 30,000 fresh troops a month, though it often loses as many killed or wounded in Ukraine, according to Western estimates.

The troop churn reflects Russia’s decision to adopt tactics that haven’t evolved much from World War II. Russian soldiers are often sent headlong into a kill zone just to seize the next house or simply to establish where the Ukrainian positions are. In a no man’s land of ruined buildings and devastated treelines, they have been hunted by reconnaissance and attack drones.

Given that, some 10,000 North Korean soldiers would have a limited impact on the battlefield as a whole, but they add to the mass Russia is bringing to bear against its smaller neighbor and somewhat alleviate Moscow’s need to draft its citizens. Russia is seeking to maintain pressure on Ukraine and its backers in the West to show that its resources and will to win are superior.

The North Korean troops could help achieve some limited objectives, such as seizing entrenched Ukrainian positions, but the contingent is also “small enough that Kim Jong Un can contain the potential risk within North Korea from any attempt at a military mutiny should the operation go badly,” said Patrick Cronin, the Asia-Pacific security chair at Hudson Institute, a research organization based in Washington, D.C.

Footage published by Ukraine purportedly shows North Korean soldiers being fitted with Russian uniforms. Photo: Ukraine Center for Strategic Communication

‘I want to live’

Russia has used foreign fighters in the war before, including mercenaries from Nepal, Cuba and Syria. But North Korea’s contingent appears to be the largest and the first to be sent directly by a foreign government.

Despite grand military parades showcasing the regime’s forces, most of Kim’s soldiers, even those considered elite, suffer chronic food shortages and corruption, former North Korean soldiers say. Special forces troops are better fed and trained compared with the rest.

The soldiers dispatched to Russia have been given fake identities and Russian uniforms, according to Seoul’s intelligence agency.

Ukraine’s military-intelligence agency has released a Korean-language video targeted at the new arrivals. The video shows Ukraine’s prisoner-of-war camps, with a sunlit room featuring separate single beds. Prisoners will be regularly fed.

On its “I want to live” Telegram channel, the agency has encouraged North Korean troops to surrender, offering phone numbers they can call for instructions.

The North Korean soldiers, should they fight on the front lines, will likely face challenges from the language barrier and a lack of joint training with the Russians, military experts say. Exposure to outside information in Russia could also pose a risk to the Kim regime, should the soldiers make their way back to North Korea, they say.

“But for Russia, as it faces a troop shortage, the North Korean soldiers can play a helpful role in its defenses,” said Jeon Kyung-joo, a research fellow at the government-funded Korea Institute for Defense Analyses in Seoul.

A news broadcast in South Korea carries images of a North Korean military parade in Pyongyang. Photo: Jung Yeon-Je/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

Write to Dasl Yoon at dasl.yoon@wsj.com and Timothy W. Martin at Timothy.Martin@wsj.com

2. S. Korean delegation to brief NATO this week on N. Korean troops in Russia

Again, NATO IP-4 (INDOPACIFIC 4 – Korea, Japan, Australia, New Zealand).

S. Korean delegation to brief NATO this week on N. Korean troops in Russia | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · October 27, 2024

SEOUL, Oct. 27 (Yonhap) -- A delegation of South Korean intelligence and government officials will visit Brussels this week to brief the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) on North Korea's deployment of troops to Russia, officials said Sunday.

On Friday, the National Intelligence Service said a delegation led by First Deputy Director Hong Jang-won will visit NATO's headquarters Monday to brief the alliance on the deepening military ties between North Korea and Russia.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte made a request for the dispatch of such a team in phone talks with President Yoon Suk Yeol last Monday.

The move comes amid growing concerns over North Korean troops being soon deployed for combat in the Russia-Ukraine war following reports of them amassing in Russia's southwestern Kursk region, where a major Ukrainian incursion took place in August.

Principal Deputy National Security Adviser Kim Tae-hyo speaks during a press briefing at the presidential office in Seoul on Oct. 22, 2024. (Yonhap)

The South Korean delegation, also composed of senior military officials and diplomats, is expected to focus on North Korea's troop activities and deployment in Russia during this week's talks.

But they could also possibly discuss support measures for Kyiv, such as sending a team of South Korean officials to Ukraine to monitor North Korean troops.

Seoul is currently considering the option to study and analyze the tactics and military doctrine of North Korean troops.

If sent, the monitoring team would likely be made up of intelligence officials and North Korea specialists from the spy agency and the military, and they could possibly participate in interrogations of captured North Koreans.

Officials specializing in psychological warfare could also possibly join the team to assist in efforts to call on North Koreans to surrender.

Other support measures that could also be discussed this week include Seoul's provision of weapons to Kyiv.

South Korea has so far provided humanitarian aid to Ukraine, opting against directly sending arms.

On Thursday, Yoon said that South Korea could consider providing arms to Ukraine, depending on the extent of military cooperation between Russia and North Korea.

North Korea's troop deployment to Russia is also expected to be discussed when South Korea's Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun travels to Washington for talks with his U.S. counterpart, Lloyd Austin, on Wednesday.

yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · October 27, 2024

3. S. Korea boosts cooperation with NATO, US in response to NK troops aiding Russia

Now South Korea should provide lethal aid to Ukraine. Providing the full range of military capabilities (weapons systems and ammunition) could be more of a game changer in Putin's War than north Korea's troops supporting Russia.

S. Korea boosts cooperation with NATO, US in response to NK troops aiding Russia

The Korea Times · October 27, 2024

North Korean soldiers march during a military parade at Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang, July 27, 2023, in this photo released by the North's official Korean Central News Agency the next day. The parade was held to mark the 70th anniversary of what the regime calls "Victory Day," commemorating the signing of the Korean Armistice Agreement that halted the 1950-53 Korean War. Yonhap

South Korean delegation to travel to Brussels to brief NATO officials

By Lee Hyo-jin

South Korean officials are set to meet with their NATO and U.S. counterparts later this week to discuss coordinated responses to North Korea’s deployment of troops in support of Russia’s war in Ukraine, according to government officials, Sunday.

A delegation comprising officials from the Ministry of National Defense and the National Intelligence Service (NIS) plans to travel to NATO headquarters in Brussels early this week.

Led by NIS First Deputy Director Hong Jang-won, the delegation will brief representatives from all 32 NATO member countries on the latest intelligence regarding North Korean troops in Russia. A follow-up briefing is also scheduled with the European Union’s political and security committee.

In addition to these NATO consultations, Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun is expected to meet with U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in Washington, D.C., Wednesday (local time), for the annual bilateral Security Consultative Meeting, at which they are likely to discuss joint responses to North Korea’s troop deployment.

The meeting comes about a week after the White House said it found evidence that North Korea has sent 3,000 troops to Russia for potential deployment in Ukraine, aligning with earlier assessments from South Korea’s intelligence agency.

Several foreign media outlets reported that the troops have arrived in Russia’s western Kursk region, in what could be a sign that they may soon be deployed to various battlefields.

As South Korea and NATO strengthen their partnership in response to the North Korean troop deployment, some observers believe that discussions on providing lethal weapons may arise during the upcoming meetings.

The U.S.-led military alliance has been requesting Seoul expand its military support for Ukraine, seeing that South Korean weapons — produced by one of the world’s major defense exporters — could be a game changer in the ongoing conflict.

In a September interview with The Korea Times, Adm. Rob Bauer, chair of NATO’s Military Committee, said while the decision to provide lethal weapons rests solely with South Korea, he noted that “South Korea knows what Ukraine needs."

Ukrainian rescuers clear debris on the site of a Russian missile strike in Dnipro, eastern Ukraine, Saturday (local time). AFP-Yonhap

In response to potential North Korean troop involvement in the Russian invasion, South Korea’s presidential office announced that it might consider supplying lethal arms to Ukraine, which would mark a shift from its current policy of offering only humanitarian, non-lethal aid.

Ukraine, facing an urgent need for air defense systems to counter Russia's ballistic missiles, has reportedly shown interest in South Korea’s Cheongung-II surface-to-air missile system.

There is also a possibility that NATO and Ukraine may request South Korea to send personnel to assist with interpreting and interrogating captured North Korean soldiers.

According to Ukrainian media reports, Ukrainian forces have begun broadcasting messages in Korean urging North Korean soldiers to surrender. However, language errors in the broadcast suggest Kyiv may need translation support to communicate effectively with potential North Korean defectors.

Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies, advised caution regarding military support for Ukraine.

“The provision of weapons is an issue that could have far-reaching consequences beyond inter-Korean relations. If these weapons are provided, given the nature of this war, they could be used to cause mass casualties and deaths of Russian soldiers. This could strain South Korea-Russia relations to a point that may be difficult to repair,” Yang said.

Plus, public support for South Korea's deeper involvement in the Ukraine conflict is low, the expert noted, reflecting concerns that such engagement could turn the conflict into a proxy war between the two Koreas.

A Gallup Korea survey released on Friday, which polled 1,001 adults, revealed that 66 percent of respondents believe South Korea should restrict its assistance to Ukraine to non-military support. Meanwhile, 16 percent expressed that Seoul should not provide any aid at all.

Only 13 percent supported sending lethal military aid.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un toast during a reception in Pyongyang, June 19. AFP-Yonhap

Meanwhile, both North Korea and Russia have continued sidestepping questions about the deployment of troops, signaling a shift from their earlier denials dismissing the reports as "groundless rumors."

“If such a situation exists, as reported by global media, I believe it would align with international law,” Kim Jong-gyu, North Korea's vice foreign minister on Russia affairs, said in a statement published by the state-run Korean Central News Agency, Friday, referencing reports of North Korean troops in Russia.

Kim’s comments follow Russian President Vladimir Putin’s remarks at the 2024 BRICS Summit the previous day, where he similarly refrained from confirming or denying the presence of North Korean troops in Russia.

“What we do within the framework of this agreement is our business,” Putin said, referring to a military treaty signed with Pyongyang in June under which each country promised to assist the other in the event of an armed invasion.

"We have never doubted in the least that the North Korean leadership takes our agreements seriously," Putin added.

The Korea Times · October 27, 2024

4. Opinion | South Korea’s arms exports are reshaping the global defence landscape

South Korea is a global pivotal state that chooses to be a peaceful nuclear power that is a partner in the arsenal of democracy that supports and defends the rules based international order.

Excerpts:

At the same time, South Korea’s arms export policy has promoted alliances with Nato nations and other allies, allowing for the exchange of technological innovations and best practices. One prominent instance – the partnership with Poland to deliver K2 Black Panther tanks – highlights the increasing interoperability between South Korean defence equipment and Nato forces. By showcasing its military technologies at defence exhibitions such as Eurosatory, South Korea is encouraging collaboration and integration in European and Asian markets.

In addition, efforts to create a capable network of allies forces in the Indo-Pacific – for example, through supplying T-50 Golden Eagle fighter jets to nations including the Philippines and Malaysia – aids those countries’ modernisation initiatives while assisting US strategic goals. This alignment is essential as it fosters a coordinated strategy for dealing with shared security issues, especially those brought on by North Korea and other regional threats.

While South Korea’s defence export outlook is promising, it still faces significant challenges. Reliance on US defence technologies limits its independent development, while issues such as complications in the KF-21 fighter jet programme with Indonesia have exposed vulnerabilities in international partnerships.

Moreover, the push for stronger defence ties with European nations could restrict South Korea’s access to other key markets. As Seoul expands its global arms trade, it must navigate growing expectations to engage in regional security matters, complicating relations with Russia, North Korea and China.

Nevertheless, South Korea’s defence partnerships and presence at Kadex solidify its status as a rising global arms supplier, marking a strategic shift in the defence landscape. Seoul is reshaping traditional power dynamics in military cooperation by leveraging technological innovations and forming key partnerships.

Its proactive defence export strategy extends beyond mere sales, positioning the country as a crucial ally in Indo-Pacific and European security frameworks amid growing geopolitical tensions. This evolution underscores South Korea’s commitment to redefining its global role in defence and security.

South Korea

Opinion Asia Opinion

Saher Liaqat

Opinion | South Korea’s arms exports are reshaping the global defence landscape

Seoul’s rise as an arms exporter is serving the interests not only of its defence firms but also the US and Indo-Pacific partners

https://www.scmp.com/opinion/asia-opinion/article/3283526/south-koreas-arms-exports-are-reshaping-global-defence-landscape?utm

Saher Liaqat

Published: 5:30am, 27 Oct 2024

As Russia’s arms export capacity narrows due to its war in Ukraine, nations such as South Korea, Italy, and France have used the shifting global security dynamics to draw in international buyers and aggressively expand their defence export markets. The ascent of South Korea as a significant player in the global arms export market is fundamentally reshaping the geopolitical dynamics and strategic alignments of global defence alliances in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond.

The 2024 Korea Army International Defence Industry Exhibition (Kadex), which took place in Gyeryongdae from October 2-6, brought attention to South Korea’s expanding defence exports and its willingness to offer partner countries complete packages which include technology transfer and training.

The event, attended by more than 500 exhibitors from over 50 countries, indicated Seoul’s desire to take on long-standing defence industry superpowers such as Russia and the United States. Leading South Korean defence firms, including Hanwha Systems and Hyundai Rotem, displayed their state-of-the-art equipment.

South Korea’s Defence Acquisition Programme Administration revealed during the exhibition it had purchased more than 100 Warmate-3 loitering munitions – a combat unmanned aerial vehicle – from WB Group of Poland.

The acquisition is expected to improve South Korea’s operational capabilities since the Warmate-3 can interface with artillery systems and operate in swarms. It has an operational range of 30km and is compatible with various warheads.

The purchase supports the exhibition’s emphasis on presenting cutting-edge defence technologies and reflects South Korea’s increasing desire to improve its military prowess in the cutthroat international arena.

South Korea’s arms exports in the late 2010s were worth only a few billion dollars. They grew to US$14 billion last year and are projected to reach US$20 billion by the end of this year. Under President Yoon Suk-yeol, South Korea seeks to become a “global pivotal state”, with more international sway through economic and military diplomacy. By 2027, it aims to grow its share of the world’s arms market from the current 2 per cent to 5 per cent.

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol delivers a speech at the opening ceremony of the Seoul International Aerospace & Defence Exhibition, at Seoul Air Base in Seongnam, on October 17, 2023. Photo: dpa

New agreements from Seoul include the US$3.2 billion purchase of Cheongung II medium surface-to-air missiles by Saudi Arabia, the US$7 billion purchase of 129 Redback infantry fighting vehicles by Australia and the expected US$6 billion-US$8 billion purchase of K2 battle tanks by Romania.

Furthermore, South Korea is diversifying its export portfolio by increasing its customer base and expanding the number of major weapons systems on offer, from six to 12. It also aims to utilise dual-use tech industries to develop 10 major military technologies – such as artificial intelligence, quantum technologies and advanced materials – by 2027.

The country hopes to position itself as a top supplier for foreign clients because of its technological prowess, effective mass production, competitive pricing and cooperation with Nato.

As South Korea’s principal ally, the US plays a vital role in the global security landscape. Recognising the significance of Seoul’s defence capabilities and potential role in Indo-Pacific security, Washington has increased the number of joint military operations, including the “Freedom Shield” exercises, which focus on improving readiness and deterrence against potential threats from North Korea.

Initiatives such as the Korea-US integrated defence programme, which supports cutting-edge systems such as the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) anti-missile system, have also strengthened intelligence exchange and defence technology cooperation.

THAAD is essential to improving South Korea’s defence posture and, in turn, US security interests in the region. To further strengthen South Korea’s operational capabilities, the US supplies its ally with cutting-edge military equipment such as F-35 stealth strike fighter jets and Aegis combat systems.

A South Korean soldier uses an anti-drone gun during an anti-terror drill on the sidelines of the joint South Korea-US Ulchi Freedom Shield military exercises in Seoul on August 24, 2022. Photo: AFP

At the same time, South Korea’s arms export policy has promoted alliances with Nato nations and other allies, allowing for the exchange of technological innovations and best practices. One prominent instance – the partnership with Poland to deliver K2 Black Panther tanks – highlights the increasing interoperability between South Korean defence equipment and Nato forces. By showcasing its military technologies at defence exhibitions such as Eurosatory, South Korea is encouraging collaboration and integration in European and Asian markets.

In addition, efforts to create a capable network of allies forces in the Indo-Pacific – for example, through supplying T-50 Golden Eagle fighter jets to nations including the Philippines and Malaysia – aids those countries’ modernisation initiatives while assisting US strategic goals. This alignment is essential as it fosters a coordinated strategy for dealing with shared security issues, especially those brought on by North Korea and other regional threats.

While South Korea’s defence export outlook is promising, it still faces significant challenges. Reliance on US defence technologies limits its independent development, while issues such as complications in the KF-21 fighter jet programme with Indonesia have exposed vulnerabilities in international partnerships.

South Korea’s Black Eagles aerobatic flight team, seen here in T-50 Golden Eagle jets, perform above an airbase in Deblin, Poland, on July 27, 2022. The Polish government signed a contract to purchase 48 FA-50 light attack fighters from Korea Aerospace Industries the same day. Photo: Handout / EPA-EFE

Moreover, the push for stronger defence ties with European nations could restrict South Korea’s access to other key markets. As Seoul expands its global arms trade, it must navigate growing expectations to engage in regional security matters, complicating relations with Russia, North Korea and China.

Nevertheless, South Korea’s defence partnerships and presence at Kadex solidify its status as a rising global arms supplier, marking a strategic shift in the defence landscape. Seoul is reshaping traditional power dynamics in military cooperation by leveraging technological innovations and forming key partnerships.

Its proactive defence export strategy extends beyond mere sales, positioning the country as a crucial ally in Indo-Pacific and European security frameworks amid growing geopolitical tensions. This evolution underscores South Korea’s commitment to redefining its global role in defence and security.

Saher Liaqat

Saher Liaqat is associated with China-Pakistan Study Centre at the Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad and is a graduate student of International Relations from the School of Politics and International Relations, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad. She is also working with China Study Centre at COMSATS University, Islamabad. Her areas of interest include the Inte

5. How NK's deployment of troops to Russia could impact peace on Korean Peninsula

Excerpts:

North Korea has deployed military personnel and technicians to foreign conflict zones, including Angola, Egypt and Syria, in the past to provide its elite military forces with battle experience.

“North Korea sent pilots to fight for North Vietnam during the Vietnam War and deployed small-scale troops to Africa in the 1970s and 1980s. If reports about North Korean troops in Russia are true, it would be the highest number of North Korean troops abroad,” said Kim Dong-yup, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies.

It has also been a major supplier of rockets and missiles to Hezbollah since the 1980s, and provided the Lebanese Shiite organization with military support in the lead-up to the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war.

This time, North Korea is believed to have dispatched its special forces to Russia for training. A video circulating on social media showed North Korean soldiers receiving uniforms and equipment at a training ground in the Russian Far East.

...

Experts advised the government to take a more cautious approach and warned officials to not use the issue for internal politics.

“Our future hinges on the actions we take. We must refrain from making premature assumptions while it remains unclear what North Korean troops will do with Russian military. Supplying lethal weapons to Ukraine can sever our diplomatic ties with Russia. As a divided nation, we need to fortify strategic autonomy and manage relations with China and Russia for stability on the Korean Peninsula,” Kim said.

Doo said the government should make efforts to sustain strategic communication with Russia. “Whether we want it or not, we could be dragged into the war based on the U.S. and NATO’s decisions. The presidential office or the national intelligence agency should communicate with Russia behind the scenes to prevent conflicts from escalating,” he said.

How NK's deployment of troops to Russia could impact peace on Korean Peninsula

The Korea Times · October 27, 2024

This handout image from South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS), released Oct. 18, shows an undated satellite image by Maxar Technologies of what NIS said is the Russian vessel Angara, loaded with North Korean weapons, departing from Rajin Port in the North Korean city of Rason. AFP

Experts fear Pyongyang may increase provocations against Seoul

By Kwak Yeon-soo

There is increasing evidence that North Korea has sent troops to Russia for possible deployment in Ukraine, a move that could further escalate the war in Ukraine and ratchet up tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

South Korea’s spy agency said Wednesday that it believes North Korea has sent 3,000 troops to Russia and aims to provide a total of 10,000 troops by December.

“About 3,000 North Korean soldiers sent to Russia have been split among multiple military bases. The National Intelligence Service (NIS) believes they have yet to be deployed in battle,” Rep. Park Sun-won, a member of the National Assembly Intelligence Committee, said after a briefing by NIS chief Cho Tae-yong.

Hours later, the White House confirmed that the U.S. believes at least 3,000 North Korean troops are undergoing training at military bases in the Russian Far East. Russia and North Korea have neither confirmed nor denied reports that North Korea has sent troops to Russia. North Korea said Friday that the dispatch of its troops, if true, would be in line with international law. Russian President Vladimir Putin said it was up to Moscow how to run its mutual defense clause with Pyongyang.

Experts noted that it is quite unusual for the U.S., a country with extensive intelligence capabilities, to confirm the reports days after Ukraine and South Korea acknowledged the presence of North Korean troops in Russia.

“I believe the U.S. has delayed the announcement due to internal circumstances. The U.S. simply restated what the NIS said without specifying or elaborating further. The U.S. has been investing its diplomatic efforts in the Middle East, but its mediation efforts have not been fruitful so far. It wouldn’t want to risk another clash in Ukraine as it can affect votes in swing states ahead of the U.S. presidential election,” said Doo Jin-ho, a research fellow at the Center for Security and Strategy in the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses.

North Korea has deployed military personnel and technicians to foreign conflict zones, including Angola, Egypt and Syria, in the past to provide its elite military forces with battle experience.

“North Korea sent pilots to fight for North Vietnam during the Vietnam War and deployed small-scale troops to Africa in the 1970s and 1980s. If reports about North Korean troops in Russia are true, it would be the highest number of North Korean troops abroad,” said Kim Dong-yup, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies.

It has also been a major supplier of rockets and missiles to Hezbollah since the 1980s, and provided the Lebanese Shiite organization with military support in the lead-up to the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war.

This time, North Korea is believed to have dispatched its special forces to Russia for training. A video circulating on social media showed North Korean soldiers receiving uniforms and equipment at a training ground in the Russian Far East.

A captured image of video released by the Centre for Strategic Communication and Information Security of Ukraine (SPRAVDI) shows soldiers, presumed to be from North Korea, lining up to receive Russian supplies. Captured from SPRAVDI's X account

“The special elite forces are believed to possess physical prowess compared to conventional troops. I think North Korean soldiers will learn how to use military equipment such as drones, participate in guerilla activities in the rear and block terrorist attacks. I think it would first undergo training and gain combat experience in Russia’s Kursk region,” Doo said.

Experts fear North Korea may escalate provocations against South Korea and pose a greater threat to national security by leveraging its battlefield experience.

“What concerns us most is that North Koreans will be able to gain real-life battle experience to complement their years of military training. This poses a serious threat to our national security,” said Yang Uk, a military expert at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies.

The reclusive regime is likely to gain not only battle experience but also money and technology from sending troops to support Russia. The NIS said each North Korean soldier would receive around $2,000 per month for their service in Russia.

“North Korea would be able to gain economic support from Russia, but what’s more important is that we will be seeing a stronger military alliance between Russia and North Korea. In the long term, North Korea could take up Russia’s supply chain that may lay the foundation for the country’s development including its weapons systems and defense industry,” Yang said.

On Thursday, Russia's parliament ratified its bilateral treaty with North Korea that calls for mutual commitment to providing military assistance to each other in the event of an armed attack, according to Russian news agency TASS.

“Pyongyang will seek advanced military technology from Moscow including technical assistance for development of intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, hypersonic ballistic missiles as well as satellite technology,” Doo said. “North Korea may also ask Russia to provide extended deterrence.”

This image, captured from a video released on Telegram by Astra, an independent Russian media outlet, shows a group of soldiers believed to be North Koreans dispatched to Russia gathered at an unknown location. Yonhap

Experts advised the government to take a more cautious approach and warned officials to not use the issue for internal politics.

“Our future hinges on the actions we take. We must refrain from making premature assumptions while it remains unclear what North Korean troops will do with Russian military. Supplying lethal weapons to Ukraine can sever our diplomatic ties with Russia. As a divided nation, we need to fortify strategic autonomy and manage relations with China and Russia for stability on the Korean Peninsula,” Kim said.

Doo said the government should make efforts to sustain strategic communication with Russia. “Whether we want it or not, we could be dragged into the war based on the U.S. and NATO’s decisions. The presidential office or the national intelligence agency should communicate with Russia behind the scenes to prevent conflicts from escalating,” he said.

The Korea Times · October 27, 2024

6. Behind North Korea’s closed curtains: the Kim regime’s ongoing struggle against collapse

A 16 minute video that discusses the subject most people overlook and refuse to consider and that is internal instability and the internal threats to Kim Jong Un. This provides some good background as well as how the increasing access to information is affecting the Korean people in the north. But it concludes that although Kim could not implement his allegedly desired economic reforms he has made political reforms that could strengthen his rule and allow for another dynastic transfer of power, perhaps to his daughter.

I am reminded our our North Korean Young leaders Assembly this summer during which one member emphasized:

•Kim Gum-hyuk, 29 July 2024:

•Change is coming

•Make human rights a priority

•Do not be disappointed or frustrated that change has not yet come

•Change is coming

https://www.scmp.com/video/scmp-explains/3283900/behind-north-koreas-closed-curtains-kim-regimes-ongoing-struggle-against-collapse?module=multimedia&pgtype=section

Behind North Korea’s closed curtains: the Kim regime’s ongoing struggle against collapse

For the past 79 years, North Korea has been ruled by the Kim family dynasty. What started as a communist country has become a secretive nationalist dictatorship handed over from father to son to grandson, ruling over 23 million people who are forbidden access to outside information. North Korea watchers say the main reason for the country’s extreme isolation and aggressive rhetoric is the regime’s extreme paranoia and fear of collapse in a hostile global environment. Pyongyang views its rival South Korea as a constant existential threat. The experts say the North’s political and military developments over the past 30 years have all been responses to the leadership’s push for continued rule.

7. Seoul-Kyiv cooperation in cognitive operation

One timid perspective from the Korea Times.

Excerpt:

Sending lethal weapons to Ukraine should be last resort

Seoul-Kyiv cooperation in cognitive operation

The Korea Times · October 27, 2024

Soldiers who are believed to be North Koreans are in line to get military outfits in Russia's Sergievsky Training Ground, in this captured image from the Ukrainian military's social media account.

Sending lethal weapons to Ukraine should be last resort

Ukraine kicked off a psychological operation broadcasting in Korean to encourage North Korean troops to surrender, sharing footage of meals served to prisoners of war in its Telegram channel, titled “I Want to Live.” It promises that POWs get warm meals containing beef and fresh vegetables three times a day as well as proper medical services.

Cognitive warfare, which is closely connected with psychological warfare, is a critical part of modern war. Through various information means, it aims to change a target population’s way of thinking to influence their actions. To succeed, cognitive operations should deliver effective messages that can influence the target group.

Ukraine’s cognitive operations targeting North Korean soldiers is timely. However, in terms of efficacy, the current campaign, which posits that hungry North Korean soldiers would surrender if meals are served, seems to be out of focus.

In the impoverished North, many residents are starving due to chronic crop shortages and layered sanctions imposed by the international community. But the North Korean troops sent to Russia are in a somewhat different situation. They are special forces who were relatively well fed and treated differently in the North. According to a North Korea expert, the average height of male North Korean soldiers is 162 centimeters because of malnutrition. But those who were selected to serve in the special forces are taller than the average soldiers with better physical and nutrient conditions.

Hyun In-ae, a North Korean defector who now teaches at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, said meat-based warm meals with fresh vegetables seem to be ineffective components of the psywar campaign because the North Koreans will already have been served such food in Russia.

She advised that Ukraine should instead develop a tailor-made message focusing on the human psyche. “They were sent to war and their lives are on the line, so it will be better if Ukraine focuses on those soldiers’ desperateness for life,” she said.

To encourage the North Koreans to surrender, she said a message of hope for life or starting a new life in a free country like South Korea will be way more effective.

Her remark hints that there is room for cooperation between South Korea and Ukraine in the cognitive warfare on North Korean soldiers. South Korea has developed its own knowhow about how to influence North Korean soldiers, while dealing with the North for over seven decades since the end of the 1950-53 Korean War. There is a lot South Korea can offer Ukraine regarding its psychological operations.

The North Korean soldiers deployed to assist Russia are said to be relatively young, with many of them being in their teens or early 20s. These young soldiers are forced to risk their lives in Russia’s war against Ukraine because of dictator Kim Jong-un’s self-serving decision to earn cash and the possible transfer of Russia’s sensitive technology.

Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun said that the North Korean soldiers will likely end up becoming cannon fodder.

He made the remark on the heels of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s social media post in which he said the first group of North Korean soldiers were expected to be deployed in combat zones as early as Sunday. They had already been deployed in the Russian border region of Kursk.

There is no life that deserves death. This is particularly so for soldiers who were forced to fight.

President Yoon Suk Yeol said on Thursday that South Korea may mull sending lethal weapons to Ukraine, while the government will monitor closely the developments of Russia-North Korea military cooperation. Sending weapons to Ukraine should be the last resort.

South Korea should keep trying to persuade the North Korean soldiers to flee their positions and surrender. It should accept the North Koreans who express their intention to defect to the South, so as to let them have a second chance at life in a free country.

The Korea Times · October 27, 2024

8. Escalating conflict (Korea)

A cautionary approach from Korea Times. Despite calling for cooperation with like minded nations it does not call for providing lethal aid to Ukraine.

Excerpts:

Cooperation with like-minded nations crucial

...

Given this escalating threat, it is imperative for South Korea to fortify its alliances, particularly with NATO countries that share similar democratic values. Strengthening these cooperative relationships is essential to counter the joint aggression from North Korea and Russia and to ensure the comprehensive monitoring of military developments in the region. The Yoon Suk Yeol administration must take a proactive stance in bolstering ties with NATO, which can provide critical support in responding to North Korean provocations.

In addition to enhancing military alliances, the Yoon administration should also prioritize diplomatic efforts to mend relations with Russia. It is crucial for Russia to recognize the benefits of a closer partnership with South Korea, the world’s 10th-largest economy, as opposed to its ties with the economically struggling North. By presenting itself as a more viable partner, South Korea can potentially influence Russia’s strategic choices and reduce its inclination to support North Korea.

...

The intensifying confrontation with North Korea necessitates a multifaceted strategy that combines military readiness, diplomatic engagement, and strong alliances with like-minded nations. As the geopolitical landscape shifts, South Korea must navigate these complexities with vigilance and foresight, ensuring its security and stability in an increasingly volatile region. Strengthening ties with NATO and mending relations with Russia are critical steps in preventing further escalation and fostering a more secure future for South Korea and its allies.

Escalating conflict

The Korea Times · October 24, 2024

Cooperation with like-minded nations crucial

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un recently underscored the urgent need for his country to enhance its war deterrence and nuclear capabilities in light of what he perceives as growing threats from the United States. During a visit to strategic missile bases, Kim publicly showcased intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of reaching the U.S. mainland. This unprecedented display of military hardware serves as a significant act of defiance and posturing, especially with the U.S. presidential election just weeks away. By revealing the inner workings of these missile bases, Kim aims to project strength both domestically and internationally.

The situation is further complicated by North Korea’s burgeoning military relationship with Russia. Recent reports confirm that North Korea dispatched troops to support Russia in its ongoing war against Ukraine. U.S. officials have provided evidence that North Korean soldiers traveled from the eastern port city of Wonsan to Vladivostok in the Russian Far East, and have since moved on to various Russian military training sites. The Ukrainian intelligence agency suggests that these troops could soon be stationed on the Kursk front, intensifying fears that North Korea may suffer casualties while gaining valuable combat experience.

This troubling alliance raises alarms regarding North Korea’s potential to enhance its missile capabilities. Experts have expressed concerns that if North Korea successfully develops ICBMs capable of striking the U.S. mainland, it could significantly undermine Washington's strategic interests in East Asia, particularly regarding its defense commitments to South Korea. The prospect of a renewed summit between Kim and a future Trump administration adds another layer of complexity. If Trump wins the election, he might pursue talks with Kim, who could use the opportunity to secure formal recognition as a nuclear power. In turn, this could lead to seeking concessions from the U.S. on sanctions and military actions.

Given this escalating threat, it is imperative for South Korea to fortify its alliances, particularly with NATO countries that share similar democratic values. Strengthening these cooperative relationships is essential to counter the joint aggression from North Korea and Russia and to ensure the comprehensive monitoring of military developments in the region. The Yoon Suk Yeol administration must take a proactive stance in bolstering ties with NATO, which can provide critical support in responding to North Korean provocations.

In addition to enhancing military alliances, the Yoon administration should also prioritize diplomatic efforts to mend relations with Russia. It is crucial for Russia to recognize the benefits of a closer partnership with South Korea, the world’s 10th-largest economy, as opposed to its ties with the economically struggling North. By presenting itself as a more viable partner, South Korea can potentially influence Russia’s strategic choices and reduce its inclination to support North Korea.

Furthermore, there is a real possibility that Russia may seek to directly engage in military confrontations on the Korean Peninsula, positioning itself as North Korea’s patron. This potential shift necessitates a reevaluation of South Korea's security strategy and the adoption of innovative approaches to address the evolving crisis.

Yoon's recent communication with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte reflects an urgent need to explore cooperative measures to counter North Korea’s troop deployments to Russia. A task force of security and intelligence officials is being formed to work with NATO, focusing on closely monitoring North Korean military activities in Ukraine. This strategy will strengthen South Korea’s national security and enable swift responses to potential threats.

The intensifying confrontation with North Korea necessitates a multifaceted strategy that combines military readiness, diplomatic engagement, and strong alliances with like-minded nations. As the geopolitical landscape shifts, South Korea must navigate these complexities with vigilance and foresight, ensuring its security and stability in an increasingly volatile region. Strengthening ties with NATO and mending relations with Russia are critical steps in preventing further escalation and fostering a more secure future for South Korea and its allies.

The Korea Times · October 24, 2024

9. Signs point to N. Korean troops in Russia-Ukraine combat zone

Signs...

"Sign, sign

Everywhere a sign

Blockin' out the scenery

Breakin' my mind

Do this, don't do that

Can't you read the sign?"

(IYKYK)

Signs point to N. Korean troops in Russia-Ukraine combat zone

koreaherald.com · by Ji Da-gyum · October 27, 2024

S. Korean, US defense chiefs to meet in Washington; gov’t to brief NATO, EU this week

By Ji Da-gyum

Published : Oct. 27, 2024 - 15:25

Smoke rises in the sky over the city after a Russian drone strike, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine October 25. (Reuters)

Growing indications suggest that North Korean troops are on the brink of deployment to support Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine, as North Korean soldiers have reportedly arrived in Russia's Kursk region, where Russian and Ukrainian forces have been battling for control of key strategic border location.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Friday that Russia is expected to deploy the first contingent of North Korean soldiers to combat zones as early as Sunday and Monday, based on an intelligence report from Oleksandr Syrskyi, commander in chief of the Ukraine armed forces.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense's Main Directorate of Intelligence reported Thursday that the first units of North Korean military personnel, trained at Russian training grounds in the east, have already arrived in the combat zone of the Russia-Ukraine war. The presence of North Korean troops was recorded in the Kursk region Wednesday, according to the military intelligence agency.

Kursk, in southwestern Russia, has been a contested border area where Ukrainian forces have been engaged since early August.

Several thousand North Korean soldiers have arrived in Russia’s Kursk region, where they are expected to join Russia's counteroffensive against Ukraine, The New York Times reported Friday, citing one unnamed Ukrainian and two American officials.

The officials noted that the North Korean troops had not yet engaged in combat, and their exact role remains unclear. Regardless of their role, they emphasized that the presence of a significant North Korean contingent would enable Russia to retain more of its forces in eastern Ukraine and allow them to concentrate on seizing Ukrainian territory before the onset of harsh winter conditions.

Kim Yong-bok, deputy chief of the General Staff of the Korean People's Army, has reportedly arrived in Russia to oversee North Korean troops stationed there, Japan's Kyodo News Agency reported Saturday, citing an unnamed Ukrainian military source.

Kim Yong-bok accompanied North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in key public military activities, notably including inspecting the KPA's special operations training bases in the western region in October and inspecting the training base of the special operation forces of the KPA in September.

The US, NATO, South Korea, Japan and other countries have confirmed the dispatch of North Korean troops to Russia, though assessments of the scale vary. Ukraine’s Western allies, including the US, have been cautious about specifying the exact role of North Korean forces on the battlefield.

In a debrief to the National Assembly on Wednesday, South Korea's National Intelligence Service said that following an initial deployment of around 1,500 North Korean troops to Russia in August, some additional 1,500 have since been dispatched. To date, approximately 3,000 North Korean soldiers have been sent to Russia, with South Korean intelligence anticipating around 10,000 to be deployed by December.

The White House confirmed on Wednesday that intelligence agencies estimated North Korea had moved at least 3,000 soldiers into eastern Russia between early and mid-October, where they were currently undergoing training at multiple Russian military sites.

South Korea's National Security Adviser Shin Won-sik (right) and his U.S. and Japanese counterparts, Jake Sullivan (left) and Takeo Akiba, respectively, pose for a photo as they meet for three-way talks in Washington, D.C., on Oct. 25 in this photo released by the South Korean presidential office. (Yonhap)

Seoul to meet Washington, NATO

This week, the South Korean government is expediting consultations with the US and NATO in response to the issue.

South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun and US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin are scheduled to hold the Security Consultative Meeting, annual defense-ministerial dialogue between the treaty allies, on Oct. 30 in Washington. According to South Korea’s Defense Ministry, the talks will address key defense issues, including North Korea’s dispatch of troops to Russia.

The South Korean government delegation is set to brief the North Atlantic Council at NATO headquarters on Monday, updating ambassadors from 32 member countries on developments related to North Korea’s troop deployment to Russia, the NIS announced Friday. Following this, the delegation will deliver a related briefing to the European Union’s Political and Security Committee.

South Korea's national security adviser Shin Won-sik also met with his US and Japanese counterparts, Jake Sullivan and Takeo Akiba, in Washington on Friday. The three "expressed grave concern" over North Korea's troop deployments to Russia, "potentially for use on the battlefield against Ukraine," according to a White House press statement.

Both Moscow and Pyongyang have adopted a stance of neither confirming nor denying North Korean troops dispatched to Russia.

President Vladimir Putin said Friday on Rossiya-1 TV channel that it is "entirely our own business" between Moscow and Pyongyang whether and how to apply the military assistance article of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty. Russia's State Duma ratified the treaty Thursday.

In June, Putin and Kim signed the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, which includes Article 4 that stipulates both countries to "provide military and other assistance using all means at its disposal without delay" if either party enters a state of war due to a military invasion by one or more countries.

Kim Jong-gyu, North Korea's vice foreign minister in charge of Russian affairs, said Friday that the country's Foreign Ministry "does not feel the need to confirm it separately" in a statement responding to what he labeled as the "rumor of the dispatch of KPA troops to Russia."

"If there is such a thing that the world media is talking about, I think it will be an act conforming with the regulations of international law," the statement read.

koreaherald.com · by Ji Da-gyum · October 27, 2024

10. North Korea's military personnel in Russia expected to hit 5,000

I am waiting with baited breath to see how they are employed and how well they fight.

If I were advising the Ukrainians I would conduct a massive drone or missile attack on their assembly areas before they are deployed and tell the nKPA they can run but they cannot hide. And of course follow this up with an intensive PSYOP campaign with all the recommendations from my good friend Hyun Seung Lee, who is after nKPA soldier.

Hyun-Seung Lee

1st degree connection

1st

North Korean Affairs Specialist | Media Commentator | Veteran | Entrepreneur

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7254655921467924481/

I urge President Zelensky to deliver my message to fellow North Korean soldiers on the battlefield in Ukraine, so we can save these innocent lives. As a former North Korean soldier, I can’t bear to see them sacrificed in an unjust war driven by dictators.

hasht

Fellow soldiers of the Korean People’s Army, my name is Hyun Seung Lee. I once served in the 4th Corps Artillery Reconnaissance Battalion and the General Staff Department's 15th Combat Technique Research Institute. In 2004, I trained alongside comrades from various divisions of the Storm Corps for six months at the 15th Research Institute. I am sending this message to you with a heartfelt plea.

The war in Ukraine, initiated by Russia, is a crime against humanity. There is no reason for you to sacrifice your lives on a foreign battlefield. Kim Jong-un is merely using your lives as a bargaining chip to pocket millions of dollars in secret funds, solely to secure his safety and maintain his power. The war you are fighting is not one of justice, nor is it for the defense of your homeland. It is not for yourselves, your parents, or your siblings. It is a cruel crime, driven solely by Kim Jong-un’s greed and his desire to maintain power.

Comrades, if you seek freedom and take a broader look at the world, you will realize with deep clarity how we have been deceived by the Kim family's three-generation regime throughout our lives. There are other choices for you, and there is a new path ahead. If you have the courage to choose freedom, a world where you no longer need to risk your lives without cause will be waiting for you. Where there’s a will, there’s a way.

North Korea's military personnel in Russia expected to hit 5,000

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2024-10-27/national/northKorea/North-Koreas-military-personnel-in-Russia-expected-to-hit-5000/2164304

Published: 27 Oct. 2024, 18:30

Updated: 27 Oct. 2024, 18:43

SEO JI-EUN
seo.jieun1@joongang.co.kr

Korea JoongAng Daily

North Korea's military personnel in Russia expected to hit 5,000

5 min

Audio report: written by reporters, read by AI

Soldiers believed to be from North Korea are standing in line to receive supplies from Russia on Oct. 19 in a screen capture of video footage released by the Ukrainian Center for Strategic Communication and Information Security, or Spravdi. [SCREEN CAPTURE]

North Korean military personnel have been gathering in Russia’s Kursk region, a contested area that borders Ukraine, with up to 5,000 troops expected to assemble by Monday, according to a news report.

The initial group of North Korean troops reportedly reached Kursk last Wednesday, with “thousands more arriving each day,” The New York Times reported on Friday, citing one Ukrainian and two U.S. officials.

By Monday, the total number of North Korean troops in the area is projected to reach 5,000, the report added. According to the officials, the military personnel are part of an elite unit of the North Korean People's Army.

The troops are under the command of Kim Yong-bok, the deputy chief of the General Staff of the Korean People’s Army, Japan’s Kyodo News reported, citing a Ukrainian military source. Kim, who reportedly was found to be staying in Russia last Thursday, is known as a close confidant of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, having accompanied him to a military training base earlier this year.

Ukrainian forces have advanced into parts of Kursk, located in western Russia along its border with Ukraine, since August as part of their counteroffensive operations, once occupying up to 1,250 square kilometers (482 square miles). However, Western intelligence reports indicate that significant portions of the area were retaken by Russian forces last month.

While the North Korean troops are anticipated to assist Russian forces in repelling Ukrainian advances, they have not yet entered the fight, and their specific role remains uncertain, according to The Times. A senior Ukrainian official was quoted saying that it is unclear whether additional North Korean reinforcements will be deployed beyond Kursk.

South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) estimated that North Korea’s troop deployment in Russia could increase to 10,000 by December in a recent briefing to the National Assembly.

For now, U.S. officials say they have seen "no evidence of a quid pro quo" with North Korea's dispatch of troops to Russia, The Times said. It added that the North Korean leader may be using the deployment to "improve the range of his intercontinental ballistic missiles and demonstrate that they are capable of hitting American cities."

Darcie Draudt-Véjares, a North Korea expert with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, cautioned, “This development could fundamentally alter the security balance on the Korean Peninsula, especially if North Korea gains combat experience while testing its advanced weapons systems.”

Astra, an outlet claiming to be independent Russian media, posted footage on its Telegram channel on Tuesday showing what appear to be North Korean soldiers standing outside a building. Astra claimed the video captures the arrival of North Korean soldiers at a military base, believed to be Unit 44980 of the 127th Motor Rifle Division in Sergievsky in Russia's Far Eastern city of Vladivostok. [SCREEN CAPTURE]

A South Korean government delegation will visit NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on Monday to share information about North Korea's troop deployment to Russia. The delegation, led by first deputy director of the NIS Hong Jang-won, comprises senior officials from Seoul's intelligence, military and diplomatic agencies.

However, South Korean military officials believe the North Korean forces may be largely inexperienced and untrained.

"Calling this a deployment is generous — it would be more accurate to describe them as cannon fodder mercenaries," South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun stated during a National Assembly session on Thursday.

“Typically, deployed forces retain their own uniforms, insignia and command structures, but North Korean troops are wearing Russian uniforms and operating under Russian control, without any command authority,” he added.

Multiple sources reported that South Korea’s Defense Intelligence Agency has compiled an interim report indicating that most of the North Korean soldiers deployed in Russia are young conscripts in their teens and early twenties, based on intelligence and video analyses.

Intercepts obtained by Ukrainian Defense Intelligence, released on Friday, also support this view.

According to CNN, the intercepts revealed plans to place one interpreter and three senior officers for every 30 North Korean soldiers, a structure that Russian soldiers were overheard criticizing as inefficient.

Both Pyongyang and Moscow have indirectly confirmed the deployment.

Russian President Vladimir Putin gives a press conference on the sidelines of the 2024 Brics Summit in Kazan, western Russia, on Thursday. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

On Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin referenced Article 4 of a “comprehensive strategic partnership” treaty with North Korea, which promises mutual defense if one side is attacked, in a remark that effectively confirmed the North Korean presence.

In response to a question about the troop dispatch at a multilateral summit in Kazan, Russia, Putin argued that what Pyongyang and Moscow “do within the framework” of the treaty is “our business.”

A day later, Kim Jong-gyu, the North's vice foreign minister responsible for Russian affairs, said, “If there is such a thing as the world media is talking about, I think it will be an act conforming with the regulations of international law,” indirectly acknowledging the troop deployment.

However, Pyongyang has not disclosed the news domestically, likely to avoid public unrest over its first deployment to a European conflict, especially given that many of the troops are young soldiers.

In a trilateral meeting in Washington on Friday, the national security advisers of South Korea, the United States and Japan expressed “grave concern” over the troop dispatch. South Korean National Security Advisor Shin Won-sik and his U.S. and Japanese counterparts, Jake Sullivan and Takeo Akiba, called for both North Korea and Russia to cease their military cooperation, while also discussing other pressing security concerns.

BY SEO JI-EUN [seo.jieun1@joongang.co.kr]

11. ‘Ready to fight tonight’: Strykers take their turn as Army’s rotational force in South Korea

If I were king for a day I would return to permanently stationed ground combat forces (a heavy BCT or 3 - unfortunately I know our force structure could not realistically sustain this given all our priorities around the world) and I would also integrate additional rotating US infantry forces into combat patrolling on the DMZ with their Korean counterparts.

‘Ready to fight tonight’: Strykers take their turn as Army’s rotational force in South Korea

Stars and Stripes · by David Choi · October 25, 2024

Soldiers assigned to 1st Stryker Brigade Combat Team, 2nd Infantry Division, uncase unit guidons during a transfer of authority ceremony on Indianhead Field at Camp Casey, South Korea, Oct. 25, 2024. (Luis Garcia/Stars and Stripes)

CAMP CASEY, South Korea — A Stryker combat team has taken over as the U.S. Army’s rotational force in South Korea, relieving a cavalry unit in a ceremony at Camp Casey, the U.S. base closest to North Korea.

The 1st Stryker Brigade Combat Team from Joint Base Lewis-McChord, Wash., assumed the responsibility Friday at Camp Casey, about 15 miles from the border, replacing the 3rd Cavalry Regiment out of Fort Cavazos, Texas.

The Stryker brigade is outfitted with the eight-wheeled armored combat vehicle of the same name.

The rotational force of approximately 3,500 soldiers and 1,500 prepositioned vehicles supports the 2nd Infantry Division in nine-month deployments to South Korea. The division is headquartered at Camp Humphreys, roughly 40 miles south of Seoul.

U.S. Army Col. Christopher Nunn of 1st Stryker Brigade Combat Team, 2nd Infantry Division, speaks during a transfer of authority ceremony on Indianhead Field at Camp Casey, South Korea, Oct. 25, 2024. (Luis Garcia/Stars and Stripes)

Soldiers assigned to 1st Stryker Brigade Combat Team, 2nd Infantry Division, stand in a formation during a transfer of authority ceremony on Indianhead Field at Camp Casey, South Korea, Oct. 25, 2024. (Luis Garcia/Stars and Stripes)

Division commander Maj. Gen. Charles Lombardo in a speech thanked the 3rd Cavalry for its service. The regiment “knocked it out of the park” during its tour, firing 2 million small arms and artillery rounds in training, driving hundreds of thousands of miles in military vehicles and conducting 60 exercises with its South Korean counterparts since Feb. 29, he said.

The regiment performed those duties while “business is not usual right now” on the Korean Peninsula.

“Our adversaries to the North are doing unusual things, and so we have got to be ready to fight tonight,” he said.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s support of Russian President Vladimir Putin, with whom he signed a mutual defense pact in June, is considered potentially destabilizing on two continents Europe and Asia.

The White House on Wednesday accused North Korea of deploying thousands of troops to Russia earlier this month in support of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has demanded that Pyongyang withdraw its forces and said his office is reconsidering its policy of withholding lethal aid to Ukraine.

Closer to home, North Korea has fired more than 40 ballistic missiles in 10 separate days of testing so far this year. It last fired a short-range ballistic missile and a cruise missile on Sept. 18 that flew northeast approximately 250 miles before making landfall on the country’s eastern coast, according to the South’s Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Pyongyang since May has floated thousands of balloons carrying bags of trash across its southern border, an act its state-media claims is retaliation against South Korean activists who send anti-communist leaflets and humanitarian supplies to the North by balloon.

Col. Jeffrey Barta, 3rd Cavalry Regiment commander, said the unit was focused more on its training and building relationships with the South Korean army, rather than anything North Korea has done so far this year.

“One thing our troops will remember is the partnership with our allies and the training events that they did,” he told Stars and Stripes at Casey’s USO center Friday. “Things like being in a [South Korean] military vehicle, eating their Meals, Ready to Eat — these were super cool memories.”

Stryker brigade commander Col. Christopher Nunn thanked Barta for setting up the brigade for success.

“We’re excited to write this next chapter in our history together with our [South Korean] army teammates and the 2nd Infantry Division,” Nunn said during the ceremony. “The 1st Stryker Brigade Combat Team … is honored to assume responsibility for this strategically important mission and together with our [South Korean] army partners.”

In 2015, the Army replaced permanently positioned combat brigades with the rotational force to curb turnover among soldiers serving one- to two-year tours in South Korea.

Roughly 28,500 U.S. service members are deployed to South Korea, most of them serving at Camp Humphreys, the largest U.S. military base overseas.

Stars and Stripes · by David Choi · October 25, 2024

12. Poland declined Ukraine’s request for South Korean weapons transfer

Is this because Korea asked them no to or because Poland knows these weapons are critical to its own defense?

But it seems like Soeul is getting close to providing lethal aid to Ukraine.

Poland declined Ukraine’s request for South Korean weapons transfer

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2024-10-26/national/defense/Poland-declined-Ukraines-request-for-South-Korean-weapons-transfer-/2163987

Published: 26 Oct. 2024, 08:40

Polish President Andrzej Duda speaks during a joint press conference with President Yoon Suk Yeol, not pictured, at the Presidential Office in Seoul, South Korea, on Oct. 24. [EPA/YONHAP]

Polish President Andrzej Duda said his government has declined Ukraine's request to transfer weapons Poland purchased from South Korea, according to news reports Friday.

Duda made the remark during a meeting with reporters during his state visit to South Korea, Polish news portal RMF24 reported.

"There is no scenario under consideration in which we hand over weapons, which we have recently purchased for billions of [Polish] zloty from the pockets of our taxpayers, to anyone. These weapons are to serve the security and defense of Poland," Duda was quoted as saying.

Even if Seoul agrees to transfer weapons to Ukraine, Duda said they will not come from the stockpiles allocated to Poland, according to the report.

On the last day of his four-day state visit Friday, Duda toured Hanwha Aerospace, which produces K9 self-propelled howitzers, and Hyundai Rotem, the manufacturer of K2 tanks, both located in Changwon, about 400 kilometers (249 miles) southeast of Seoul.

During Thursday's summit with Duda, President Yoon Suk Yeol said South Korea could consider providing arms to Ukraine, depending on the extent of military cooperation between Russia and North Korea.

Yoon also pledged support for South Korea's efforts to sign an additional deal with Poland to supply K2 tanks by the end of the year, estimated at around $7 billion.

In 2022, Poland signed major defense contracts with South Korea, valued at 17 trillion won ($12.4 billion), to purchase K2 tanks, K9 self-propelled howitzers, FA-50 light attack aircraft and Chunmoo multiple rocket launchers to bolster its military capabilities amid the Russia-Ukraine war.

Following the initial agreements, Poland signed a $2.67 billion deal for K9 howitzers in December 2023 and a $1.64 billion agreement for Chunmoo rocket systems in April.

13. North Korean Defectors from the North Korean Military: “Comrades, Don’t Be Bullets for No Reason”

This is a Google translation of an RFA interview with my good friend Hyun Seung Lee.

North Korean Defectors from the North Korean Military: “Comrades, Don’t Be Bullets for No Reason”

https://www.rfa.org/korean/in_focus/nk_nuclear_talks/bullet-catcher-10252024144218.html

WASHINGTON-Park Jae-woo parkja@rfa.org

2024.10.25

Lee Hyeon-seung (left) and Ryu Seong-hyeon (right), young defectors who served in the North Korean People's Army.

/RFA PHOTO

00:00 /05:50

Anchor : North Korean defectors who served in the North Korean People's Army expressed their concerns about the news of the North Korean military's deployment to Russia, saying it was unimaginable. They prayed that the young men would not be sacrificed in vain and that they would be safe . Reporter Park Jae-woo has the answers .

[ Mr. Lee Hyun-seung ] This war that comrades are participating in is not a war of justice or a war to defend the fatherland . It is definitely not a war for yourselves, your parents , or your siblings . It is only a war crime for Kim Jong-un's selfish desires and dictatorial power .

This is a video posted by defector Lee Hyeon-seung on the social networking service X on the 22nd as evidence of North Korea's dispatch of troops to Russia began to gradually emerge .

He, who served in the 4th Corps Artillery Reconnaissance Battalion of the Korean People's Army and the 15th Martial Arts Research Institute under the General Staff Department in the 2000s , explained in a phone call with Radio Free Asia (RFA) on the 24th that he uploaded this video because he felt sorry for young North Korean soldiers receiving supplies from the Russian military .

On the 19th , the Information Security Center of Ukraine (SPRAVDI) released a short video showing North Korean soldiers deployed in Russia receiving supplies .

Following this, South Korea and the United States also confirmed that North Korea had dispatched troops to Russia, and North Korea and Russia denied it for a while before virtually admitting it on the 25th .

North Korea admits sending troops to Ukraine “in compliance with international norms”?

Ukraine urges North Korea to surrender via hotline

For North Korean defectors who once served in the People's Army, North Korea's dispatch of troops to Russia is not someone else's problem.

If they were unable to escape North Korea, their fate would not be much different from that of the deployed soldiers.

Ryu Seong-hyeon, a former member of the Korean People's Army Air Force who defected to South Korea through the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) in 2019 , also explained in a phone call with RFA that day that if he had remained in North Korea instead of defecting , he would have been able to go to the deployment without any hesitation .

[ Ryu Seong-hyeon ] If I had lived in North Korea, I might have wanted to go on deployment . If I had been told to go, I would not have said , " I'm not going at all ," or , "What should I do? " I think I would have gone. ( Soldiers who are deployed ) can think of it as an opportunity to work hard overseas and get promoted within the military .

What is the salary of North Korean soldiers who risk their lives to go to Russia ? /RFA video

South Korea's Minister of National Defense Kim Yong-hyun said at the National Assembly's Defense Committee audit on the 24th that North Korean authorities are using young people to sell them as " bullet shields " for their illegal war of aggression .

Mr. Hyun Seung also said that after seeing reports that North Korean soldiers could suffer 90% casualties if a battle broke out, he felt the need to prevent useless deaths .

[ Mr. Lee Hyun-seung ] We need to tell these people the truth and make them make the right choice. If a battle were to break out against them, I think there would really be 90% casualties. We can’t take the lives of young people . They were dragged into a war for no reason … .

Seong-hyeon also expressed his concern about this situation and appealed that he hopes the deployed soldiers will quickly realize the preciousness of life .

[ Ryu Seong-hyeon ] North Korean soldiers don't know how precious their lives are . They don't have any hope of a better life in the future, so they don't really know the value of life . I want to tell them that if they taste and learn freedom, they can live a life that is on par with Kim Jong-un's .

They testified that the treatment of the People's Army within North Korea is considerably poor, and analyzed that the youth of the People's Army may have relatively less resistance to being dispatched .

According to an announcement from South Korea's National Intelligence Service, mercenary soldiers dispatched to Russia are known to receive about $ 2,000 per person per month in compensation for their deployment .

In addition, it is predicted that the deployed soldiers will be able to eat better at their deployment sites compared to the North Korean soldiers who are not even given proper meals.

Hyun Seung and Seong Hyeon both served in the People's Army 20 years ago and five years ago, respectively , but explained that the monthly salary of soldiers in the People's Army inside North Korea is still less than $ 1 .

However, even if they receive $ 2,000 from Russia , North Korean soldiers are likely to hand over most of their earnings to the regime, just like other North Korean workers dispatched overseas .

Recognizing this, the Ukrainian authorities made a video through a "surrender hotline" urging them to surrender, promising that if they surrendered, they would be provided with three meals a day of meat and would be able to stay in a sun-drenched prisoner of war camp .

However, it is uncertain whether those who are controlled and educated by the North Korean authorities will be able to surrender.

Mr. Seong-Hyeon guessed that the deployed soldiers, who were only exposed to North Korea's propaganda and agitation, would not even think about surrender .

[ Mr. Ryu Seong-hyeon ] It is common for North Korean soldiers to be unaware of the existence of organizations such as the European Union and NATO that support Ukraine. They may be thinking , ' Why would a powerless country like Ukraine try to persuade them ?'

That is why Hyun Seung argues that more information should be spread through Ukraine and North Korea broadcasts.

[ Mr. Lee Hyun-seung ] When I thought about which people's voices would resonate with me the most if I were on that battlefield, I thought that if former North Korean soldiers or military officers who served in the military with me and could read the minds of North Korean soldiers well sent messages like this, it would truly reach the deployed soldiers, so I decided to make this video .

Editor Park Jeong-woo, Web Editor Kim Sang-il

14. Commentary: Why North Korean troops in Russia are raising concerns in South Korea

Excerpts:

WHAT CAN SOUTH KOREA DO ABOUT IT?

But what can South Korea do about this, besides summoning the Russian ambassador and calling for the immediate withdrawal of North Korean troops? Probably not much.

South Korea will not deploy its own forces to Ukraine. No democracy has for fear of prodding Putin toward nuclear escalation.

But South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has now said that it would “review” its ban on direct lethal aid to Ukraine. He warned that Seoul “won’t sit idle”.

South Korea has a large, high-quality defence industrial base, so Putin has repeatedly threatened South Korea not to take this step. But Putin’s increasingly alignment with North Korea undercuts these threats.

South Korea now has little to lose by more openly supporting Ukraine. South Korean armaments vastly outclass what North Korea has to offer. Putin may well regret this desperate decision to accept North Korean soldiers.

Commentary: Why North Korean troops in Russia are raising concerns in South Korea

Robert E Kelly

@Robert_E_Kelly

26 Oct 2024 06:00AM

(Updated: 26 Oct 2024 08:08AM)

channelnewsasia.com

BUSAN: The United States confirmed on Wednesday (Oct 23) what South Korea and Ukraine have been anxiously calling attention to for days – that North Korea has sent troops to Russia.

A Russian ally providing direct military support for its illegal invasion of Ukraine would be an escalation of the war.

Previous foreign participants on the Russian side have mostly been nationals from underdeveloped countries acting on their own, usually for individual financial reasons. North Korean participation, by contrast, has been ordered by the nation’s leader Kim Jong Un.

Ukrainian intelligence service said on Thursday that these North Korean forces have been deployed in Russia’s Kursk region, which could be to fight back Ukraine’s August incursion. If so, they would be fighting in Russian, not Ukrainian, territory.

This permits at least the fiction of defence and alliance for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

SOUTH KOREA’S INTENSIFYING CONCERNS

South Korea has tried for a long time to keep Russia out of the Korean peninsula’s division without openly alienating Moscow.

Seoul responded circumspectly as Putin and Kim met earlier in June to elevate its bilateral ties to a strategic partnership – which, among other things, obliges “military and other assistance with all means in its possession without delay” if either party is in a state of war. On Thursday, Russian lawmakers voted unanimously to ratify the treaty.

But Seoul’s response has intensified as evidence of a deeper alignment has surfaced. There are several areas of growing concern for South Korea.

First and foremost is the quid pro quo behind the first foreign deployment of North Korean troops, with widespread suspicion that they are a swap for Russian assistance to substantially turbocharge Pyongyang’s missile and nuclear programme.

Then there is the modern combat training and experience North Korean soldiers will receive in the Ukraine war, and the fears of a matching Russian deployment to North Korea one day.

THE UPSIDE FOR RUSSIA

There are clear upsides for Moscow to use North Korean fighters. Putin has tried hard to distance the conflict from Russia’s ethnic Russian middle class, whom he is reluctant to have to mobilise.

These residents of Russia’s largest cities provide the core domestic support for Putin’s regime. They accept the basic regime bargain of political quiescence in exchange for political and economic stability – but this has been threatened by the unexpectedly long war.

Russia has heavily relied on non-Russian ethnic minorities, prisoners and foreign fighters. North Korean soldiers are part of that general outsourcing effort.

These efforts are likely enough to retain current territorial gains but Russia will not win the war without a larger, inevitably Russian army. Nuclear weapons use would, of course, open space for an immediate victory, but the diplomatic costs are so massive that Putin has not done this.

At this point, it looks like Putin is buying time till the United States presidential election to see how the cards fall for him.

File photo. North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un (left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin at a meeting at the Pyongyang Sunan International Airport on Jun 19, 2024. (Gavriil Grigorov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)

THE NORTH KOREAN END OF THE BARGAIN

The North Korean end of the bargain is better, if it does get a technological assist from Russia. A lengthy stalemate also sends home a nice monthly “stipend”, paid to the government not the soldiers. They will likely receive a fraction of their earnings, if they make it back at all.

Russia has used foreigners and prisoners for its human wave attacks, what the Ukrainians call "meat assaults". Russia’s casualties in the war have been enormous; Western estimates suggest over 1,000 per day just this past September. Russian generals continue to treat the war as a question of quantity, which helped power the Soviet Union to victory in World War II.

The North Koreans are expected to be forced into this meat grinder, with grave consequences probably promised for those considering desertion or defection.

But this is likely irrelevant to Kim and Putin, who are ideologically alike. Both deeply resent Western power and America’s forward basing in their regions. Both are also wary of over-dependence on China, which does not fully support their revisionist, anti-Western goals. This is an alliance of convenience, but one that especially benefits North Korea, the weaker partner.

WHAT CAN SOUTH KOREA DO ABOUT IT?

But what can South Korea do about this, besides summoning the Russian ambassador and calling for the immediate withdrawal of North Korean troops? Probably not much.

South Korea will not deploy its own forces to Ukraine. No democracy has for fear of prodding Putin toward nuclear escalation.

But South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has now said that it would “review” its ban on direct lethal aid to Ukraine. He warned that Seoul “won’t sit idle”.

South Korea has a large, high-quality defence industrial base, so Putin has repeatedly threatened South Korea not to take this step. But Putin’s increasingly alignment with North Korea undercuts these threats.

South Korea now has little to lose by more openly supporting Ukraine. South Korean armaments vastly outclass what North Korea has to offer. Putin may well regret this desperate decision to accept North Korean soldiers.

Robert Kelly (@Robert_E_Kelly) is a professor of political science at Pusan National University.

Source: CNA/ch

channelnewsasia.com

15. South Korea lawmaker’s leaked messages on targeting North’s forces in Ukraine draw outrage

Oops. Be careful what a reporter can photograph over your shoulder on your cell phone or computer.

I have missed this controversy.

I would think he meant providing lethal aid (and perhaps intelligence targeting assistance. which i doubt they need) and then when nKPA forces are destroyed by the Urkainians using South Korean weapons systems the South can then use that for psychological operations purposes - many of us have long recommended that when the ROK provides lethal aid that it should be exploited for PSYOP effects on the Korean peninsula as well as lethal effects on the battlefield in support of the Urkainians.)

Of course this begs the question of who is coordinating and orchestrating PSYOP in support of the alliance based on activities in Ukraine? Is there a coordinated alliance PSYOP effort under way?

Excerpts:

Lawmaker Han Ki-ho, a former three-star general and a senior member of the ruling People Power Party, suggested that South Korea could help Ukrainian forces specifically target North Koreans with artillery and missile strikes.

“If we can cooperate with Ukraine, we’d like to bomb North Korean military units to cause damage and use that damage for psychological warfare against North Korea,” Han stated in the leaked messages.

In response, National Security Adviser Shin Won-sik replied: “Yes. I’ll take care of it.”

Han then suggested that instead of sending troops, South Korea could dispatch liaison officers to assist Ukraine, to which Shin responded: “That’s how it will be.”

The texts, captured by a photographer during a parliamentary session, made headlines on Thursday and quickly ignited a political firestorm.

Opposition lawmakers condemned the exchange, accusing the ruling party of recklessly endangering the Korean peninsula and attempting to divert attention from President Yoon’s growing political challenges.

South Korea lawmaker’s leaked messages on targeting North’s forces in Ukraine draw outrage

Messages captured by photographer show top security official and lawmaker seemingly agreeing on warfare tactic

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3283809/outrage-seoul-over-leaked-idea-collaboration-ukraine-against-north-korean-troops?module=top_story&pgtype=section?registerSource=loginwall

Park Chan-kyong

Published: 1:03pm, 25 Oct 2024Updated: 1:35pm, 25 Oct 2024

Leaked Telegram messages between South Korea’s top security official and a conservative lawmaker have sparked controversy over suggestions that Seoul collaborate with Ukraine in a targeted hit on North Korean forces fighting alongside Russia.

The incident followed President Yoon Suk-yeol’s statement on Thursday, indicating that South Korea might consider providing arms to Ukraine if military cooperation between Moscow and the North deepened.

Yoon vowed not to “sit idle” in response to Pyongyang’s troops potentially being deployed to Russia.

“We have adhered to a principle of not directly supplying lethal weapons, but we can review this more flexibly depending on North Korean military activities,” he warned.

Lawmaker Han Ki-ho, a former three-star general and a senior member of the ruling People Power Party, suggested that South Korea could help Ukrainian forces specifically target North Koreans with artillery and missile strikes.

“If we can cooperate with Ukraine, we’d like to bomb North Korean military units to cause damage and use that damage for psychological warfare against North Korea,” Han stated in the leaked messages.

In response, National Security Adviser Shin Won-sik replied: “Yes. I’ll take care of it.”

Han then suggested that instead of sending troops, South Korea could dispatch liaison officers to assist Ukraine, to which Shin responded: “That’s how it will be.”

The texts, captured by a photographer during a parliamentary session, made headlines on Thursday and quickly ignited a political firestorm.

Opposition lawmakers condemned the exchange, accusing the ruling party of recklessly endangering the Korean peninsula and attempting to divert attention from President Yoon’s growing political challenges.

Yoon’s approval rating plummeted to 20 per cent on Friday, reaching one of the lowest points for any South Korean president, according to a Korea Gallup poll.

Ukraine releases video purportedly showing North Korean soldiers in Russia

“This is a crazy idea, treating people like pawns on a chessboard,” said Park Chan-dae, the floor leader of the opposition Democratic Party of Korea.

“It doesn’t matter whether they would be liaison officers or observers. They are all soldiers, and their dispatch to Ukraine would amount to participating in the war,” Park added.

He warned of the potential for the two Koreas to become embroiled in a “war of proxies” in a foreign country.

Opposition lawmakers quickly called on Yoon to discipline Shin, while urging his party to distance itself from lawmaker Han.

In defence, Han argued that he had merely shared a “personal view”, stressing that it would be a psychological tactic to raise awareness among North Koreans that their soldiers were being sacrificed in a foreign war.

He insisted that it would not be controversial for Ukraine to target North Koreans instead.

Defence Minister Kim Yong-hyun sought to calm the growing outrage, explaining that the Telegram messages were exchanged “privately” between Han and Shin and they “divert greatly from the government’s policy stance”.

He portrayed the North Korean troops sent to Russia as “cannon fodder mercenaries” during a parallel parliamentary audit session.

In an exclusive interview with This Week in Asia, lawmaker Kim Joon-hyung of the splinter opposition Rebuilding Korea Party claimed that Han’s views were shared by “some jingoistic hawks” within the ruling camp.

“There is a legal loophole preventing the opposition-controlled parliament from stopping the government if it decides to break with the principle of not supplying lethal weapons to a country at war,” Kim said.

“Still, it would take months for such a scenario to materialise. It’s anyone’s guess what could happen in the war or the upcoming US presidential election in November.”

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (right) and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin chat at a garden in Pyongyang in June. Photo: KCNA via AP

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin downplayed concerns about military cooperation with Pyongyang, stating: “This is our business,” when questioned about North Korean troop deployments to Ukraine during the Brics summit in Kazan.

On Thursday, Russian lawmakers also voted unanimously to ratify the country’s defence treaty with North Korea, sparking condemnation from the South.

Seoul “expresses grave concern over Russia’s ratification of the Russia-North Korea treaty amidst the ongoing deployment of North Korean troops to Russia,” the foreign ministry said in a statement on Friday.

Both Washington and Seoul confirmed that North Korea sent around 3,000 troops to eastern Russia by ship earlier this month, raising tensions on the Korean peninsula.

The two Koreas have escalated their long-standing psychological warfare tactics, exchanging propaganda leaflets, garbage-filled balloons and loudspeaker broadcasts near the border.

Chang Yong-seok, senior researcher at Seoul National University’s Institute for Peace and Unification, cautioned South Korea against making hasty decisions that could provoke Russia.

He warned that Moscow, in return, could provide North Korea with advanced conventional weapons such as anti-aircraft missiles, jet fighters and submarines.

“It would be very dangerous and irresponsible for the South Korean government to talk about participating in the war by dispatching liaison officers or military observers,” Chang told This Week in Asia.

Park Chan-kyong

Park Chan-kyong is a journalist covering South Korean affairs for the South China Morning Post. He previously worked at the Agence France-Presse's Seoul bureau for 35 years. He studied political science at Korea University and economics at the Yonsei University Graduate School.

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

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