Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

“Civilized men are more discourteous than savages because they know they can be impolite without having their skulls split, as a general thing.”

– Robert E. Howard (American Writer)

"We swallow greedily any lie that flatters us, but we sip only little by little at a truth we find bitter."

– Denis Diderot

“Unorthodoxy threatens more than the life of a mere individual; it strikes at Society itself.”

– Aldous Huxley

1. Advice for the incoming commander of US Forces Korea

2. The west underestimates North Korea at its peril

3. GOP rep says US must focus on North Korea abuses ahead of UN council

4. Ex-Ukraine Defense Minister: Russia ‘Trying to Grow the War’ with North Korean Troops

5. “Attack! Get down!” North Korea-Russia communication booklet released

6. North Korean troops possibly heading to front lines, language barrier causing problems, says South Korea

7. Zelensky: North Korea's troop support pushing Ukraine war beyond borders

8. North Korea’s elite troops are in Russia to fight Ukraine: What we know

9. How Russia is transporting North Korean troops to the front lines of Ukraine war

10. Kim Jong Un appears to fear possible assassination, South Korean spy agency says

11. U.S.-Republic of Korea Security Consultative Meeting and 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue Fact Sheet

12. North Korea and Russia send political shockwaves with Ukraine war moves

13. The West did nothing to stop North Korea’s alliance with Russia, and there will be consequences

14. Russian troops’ frustrations at North Korean fighters caught on intercepted communications

15. Peaceful reunification is no longer North Korea’s goal

16. Ukraine's surrender hotline is tempting North Koreans to desert, promising they'll be well fed

1. Advice for the incoming commander of US Forces Korea

Some good advice for consideration from someone with a lot of experience in Korea and the region. I disagree with a number of points and with some of the nuance he describes but I will only make two points.

What the General omitted was that the new commander should focus on contingencies from war to regime collapse and must establish that the military end state for the ROK/US Combined Forces Command is military support to the political process of unification (and the other two commands must also support this). This fact must be understood and accepted by the commander as well as his political bosses on both sides of the Pacific.: The only way we are going to see an end to the nuclear program and military threats as well as the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the north by the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime is through achievement of unification and the establishment of a free and unified Korea that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government based on individual liberty, rule of law, and human rights as determined by the Korean people. A free and unified Korea or in short, a United Republic of Korea (U-ROK).

Most importantly, and in support of the above, the new commander must have a deep understanding about the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime. He must build on the existing crisis action process of the three commands to be able to respond to contingencies but also exploit opportunities to shape the environment and provide military options to the MIlitary Committee (and through it to the ROK and US presidents) based on Kim Jong Un's actions. The General must keep in mind (and instill in the three commands) the ultimate strategic end state that both the ROK and US presidents and the Japanese Prime Minister outlined at the Camp David Summit. The commander cannot overlook the political guidance for the end state that comes from the national leaders (two of which are his boss as the Commander of the ROK/US Combined Forces Command).

But there is a lot within this essay to discuss and debate.

Advice for the incoming commander of US Forces Korea

Lt. Gen. Xavier T. Brunson has an opportunity to shift the paradigm from aggression to the pursuit of peace

responsiblestatecraft.org · by Dan Leaf · October 30, 2024

quincyinst.org

Lt. Gen. Xavier T. Brunson has an opportunity to shift the paradigm from aggression to the pursuit of peace

Oct 29, 2024

The U.S. Senate recently confirmed Army Lt. Gen. Xavier T. Brunson as the new commander of U.S. Forces Korea (USFK). I know General Brunson only by reputation — stellar — and his impressive service record. Why would I presume to give unsolicited advice to the new USFK boss?

In 2008, I was almost in his shoes. Knowing that Secretary of Defense Robert Gates was ready to nominate me as the first non-Army officer to command USFK, I gave deep thought to the challenges and opportunities on the horizon. However, as Gates noted in his memoir,, “Army chief of staff George Casey balked and made a strong case that the timing for the change wasn’t good, especially as we were negotiating with South Korea on a transfer of operational control of forces from the United States to the Koreans. He was right, so I recommended that the president nominate another Army general.”

I did not get the job and retired as a three-star that summer. I am still driven to make a difference for Korea on both sides of the DMZ. I cannot be comfortable with the unending state of war that has the standoff more dangerous than ever, nor can I ignore the decades of repression and privation faced by ordinary North Koreans.

My four years serving in South Korea in two Air Force assignments allowed me to witness the dual miracles of economic growth and democratization. Simultaneously, I saw North Korea descend deeper into decline as its government broke the bank developing a credible nuclear threat. There was a glimmer of hope during the Trump-Kim meetings in 2018 and 2019, but that was dashed when the Hanoi Summit collapsed. Something must be done, and General Brunson has a chance to make a difference.

After his confirmation, NK News reported that promoting the general meant he would be tasked with “countering North Korea’s growing nuclear threat.” But the job is so much more than that, and the new four-star will hear all about that from the Defense Department, think tank influencers, South Korean counterparts and his new boss, Admiral Sam Paparo, commander of U.S. INDOPACOM.

General Brunson will not define the Korea policy of a Harris or Trump administration, but his role in implementation can shape the future. I offer my thoughts formed over the 46 years since I first landed at Osan Air Base in South Korea to the new commander in hopes that his tenure will help move beyond the dangerous standoff persisting since the Armistice was signed in 1953.

General Brunson, congratulations and best wishes. As you enter this important position, I recommend the following:

First, be realistic. Well-intended U.S. policies towards the “North Korea problem” since the collapse of the Soviet Union have failed. DPRK materiel and manpower support to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shows we have not deterred conventional provocation, and the North now has a credible nuclear threat despite the best efforts of multiple American administrations.

Congress passed the North Korean Human Rights Act 20 years ago, but the horrific repression of non-elites there has not been stemmed, if anything, it has expanded. Since the failure of the Hanoi Summit, U.S. and ROK engagement with the Kim government has ceased, increasing the danger of accidental or intentional conflict.

Second, consider your sources. As you transition into command, carefully examine the political, organizational and financial loyalties of those offering advice. I am unaffiliated, non-partisan and not paid for my advocacy. Others may be more entangled. The case of American policy influencer Su Mi Terry, the former CIA analyst and National Security Council official allegedly on the payroll of the South Korean intelligence service illustrates the complicated perspectives of those who will seek your ear. The undue influence of politics, ideology and money have not made for effective policy.

Third, set a command tone that is strong but not confrontational. When you assume the three command roles (United Nations Command, Combined Forces Command and U.S. Forces Korea), you will inherit some time-worn slogans that are overdue revision or replacement.

“Katchi kapchida” “같이갑시다” (we go together) is the catchphrase for the ROK-U.S. military alliance. We are allies and partners but we should not expect or attempt to do so in lockstep. “Partners for peace” or pyeonghwaleul wihan pateuneo (평화를 위한 파트너) is a better vision for the alliance.

American and South Korean leaders urge their charges to be ready to “fight tonight,” a slogan that headlines USFK’s official website. As real as the possibility of an outbreak of hostilities might be, the new commander should revise the slogan to: “Be so ready that you never have to fight.” Deterrence is the first goal, and that should be emphasized at every opportunity.

Fourth, fight for a lasting peace.As you deter, lead your command out of war. The Armistice paused the Korean War, it did not end it. You have a responsibility to honor the sacrifices of the past and secure the safety of the future by advocating for and facilitating a formal end to hostilities on the Korean Peninsula. If the next administration is serious about its Korea policy, yours will be a key part of any success because of the unique nature of your three roles.

As CINCUNC, you can initiate movement beyond the state of war by requesting an advisory ruling on maritime boundaries prescribed by the Armistice. North Korea will benefit, but not as a reward for bad behavior, rather as a demonstration of U.S. commitment to the rule of law.

As the leader of the military coalition (CFC), shift focus from countering a possible but unlikely DPRK invasion to a more imaginative all-domain strategy that is more effective and relies less on conventional land forces that require provocative and costly large-scale exercises.

In your U.S. role, make it clear to your South Korean counterparts know that you will not advocate for actions that have more risk than benefit such as strategic (nuclear) asset visits to the ROK. Such grandstanding does nothing to contribute to readiness and they inflame rather than reduce tensions with North Korea.

And finally, close the deal. That transfer of control referenced by Dr. Gates still has not occurred. I hope you will be the Army general who closes this deal in testimony to the strength of U.S.-ROK partnership and out of respect for our ally’s sovereign interests.

General Brunson, time in command will present great challenges but also an important opportunity. I hope you will seize the moment and be the leader who shifts the paradigm on the peninsula from confrontation to the aggressive pursuit of lasting peace.

The west underestimates North Korea at its peril

Financial Times · by Gideon Rachman · October 28, 2024

“The first step to a world war”. That was how Volodymyr Zelenskyy described the anticipated arrival of North Korean troops on the front lines of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Western security officials have warned for months of growing co-operation between an “axis of adversaries”, made up of Russia, North Korea, Iran and China. North Korean support for Russia is the most dramatic evidence yet of that axis in action.

Of the four adversaries, North Korea has received the least attention in the west. The country slipped out of the headlines after the attempted rapprochement between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un, the North Korean dictator, failed in 2019.

However, specialists on North Korea have been sounding the alarm for months. In January, two leading North Korea watchers, Robert Carlin and Siegfried Hecker, warned: “Kim Jong Un has made a strategic decision to go to war.”

Carlin ran the US State Department team working on North Korea for decades and Hecker is a former head of the Los Alamos laboratory. Both men have visited North Korea many times. In their joint article, they warned that Kim has abandoned his effort to improve relations with America, in favour of a policy of confrontation with South Korea and the US. They concluded bleakly: “North Korea has a large nuclear arsenal . . . of potentially 50 or 60 warheads . . . [Kim’s] recent words and actions point toward the prospects of a military solution using that arsenal.”

Over the course of the year, the signs of a radicalisation in North Korean policy have proliferated. In June, Russia and North Korea signed a mutual defence pact. North Korea has also formally abandoned the goal of eventual reunification with the south and instead designated South Korea as an irreconcilable enemy. In recent weeks, Pyongyang has also blown up roads linking the two Koreas.

Like Xi and Putin, Kim Jong Un seems to be convinced that the US is in long-term decline. He may sense a historic opportunity to prevail over his enemies, as part of a broader global realignment that Xi has hailed as “great changes unseen in a century”.

China is said to be uneasy about the growing closeness between Russia and North Korea, which reduces Beijing’s leverage over both countries. But it remains a treaty ally of North Korea — which China still regards as a crucial buffer against the US in Asia.

The Chinese also know that rising tensions on the Korean peninsula may make it harder for the US to defend Taiwan. Many of the same US military resources are pledged to the defence of both Taiwan and South Korea. Indeed some Washington analysts are already speculating about the possibility of simultaneous conflicts on the Korean peninsula and the Taiwan Strait.

There has been an unfortunate tendency in the west to treat North Korea as a joke — a land of ill-fitting suits and bad haircuts that is more likely to launch a comic meme than a nuclear weapon.

FT Edit

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As well as minimising the suffering of the North Korean people, treating the Kim regime as a joke seriously underestimates its capabilities. Poverty in North Korea does not mean that the regime is backward in every respect. Instead, it testifies to Kim’s utter disregard for the welfare of ordinary people, in favour of military development. Despite the regime’s isolation it has succeeded in building nuclear weapons — something that richer and better-connected countries such as Iran and Syria have failed to achieve. The North Koreans have also developed ballistic missiles and considerable offensive cyber capabilities.

Kim has already delivered millions of shells to Russia, which have given Putin’s regime an advantage in its artillery war with Ukraine. Now North Korean troops seem poised to enter the fight. Initial western speculation is that they may operate inside Russia itself — perhaps taking on the Ukrainian forces that have occupied parts of the Kursk region or merely operating in support roles.

But western analysis has consistently underestimated the radicalism and aggression of both Putin and Kim. So there can be no guarantee that the North Koreans will not also join Russia’s offensive inside Ukraine itself.

In a war in which over 600,000 Russian troops are believed to have been killed or wounded, the arrival of 10,000 or so North Korean special forces would be unlikely to tip the balance. But the country has 1.3mn active military personnel, the fourth largest force in the world. The bulk of those are ill-trained and ill-equipped recruits. But Putin could always use more cannon fodder for his “meat-grinder” offensives.

And what is in it for Kim? Current speculation centres on technology transfer and money from Russia. But the North Korean leader may also be looking ahead to a possible future conflict on the Korean peninsula. If he backs Russia in a European war, might Russia one day return the favour in an Asian conflict?

All of this poses very difficult questions for the US, the EU and South Korea. They have all sought to avoid escalation, both in Ukraine and on the Korean peninsula. But they may soon face a choice. Allow Russia to defeat Ukraine with North Korean assistance — and then contemplate the changed security picture in Europe and Asia. Or sharply increase their own support for Ukraine and their willingness to take risks in confronting an axis of adversaries.

gideon.rachman@ft.com

Financial Times · by Gideon Rachman · October 28, 2024

3. GOP rep says US must focus on North Korea abuses ahead of UN council

Congress, please pass the Human RIghts Act.

Excerpt:

She continued, “Innocent North Koreans, defectors, and detained foreign citizens need the United States’s help now more than ever.”

GOP rep says US must focus on North Korea abuses ahead of UN council - Washington Examiner

Washington Examiner · October 30, 2024

The United Nations Human Rights Council is preparing for its fourth universal periodic review of North Korea in November. The council will gather information from member countries to compile a comprehensive profile of human rights abuses occurring in the hermit nation.

2024 ELECTIONS LIVE UPDATES: LATEST NEWS ON THE TRUMP-HARRIS PRESIDENTIAL RACE

Republican Steel, who was born in South Korea, filed a letter to U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Wednesday outlining key concerns of herself and the large contingent of Korean immigrants in her district.

FILE – Rep. Michelle Steel (R-CA) questions witnesses during a hearing of a special House committee dedicated to countering China on Capitol Hill, Tuesday, Feb. 28, 2023, in Washington. (AP)

Among the concerns listed is the forced repatriation of escaped North Korean refugees, as well as the past abductions of Japanese, South Korean, and other foreign nationals by the North Korean government.

The abduction of foreign nationals by North Korea has been widely documented in the decades since the Korean War, most prominently from the border cities of South Korea and the coastal regions of Japan. Those individuals, most of them kept in the country for decades, have been almost entirely lost in the opacity of North Korean society.

Additionally, in recent years, China has adopted a policy to cooperate with the North Korean regime to return escaped North Korean nationals when caught attempting to flee through its territory.

The situation amounts to something of a prison state — those inside have difficulty escaping while many outsiders have been silently smuggled within and held in isolation for the majority of their lives.

FILE – In this photo provided by the North Korean government, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, center, supervises artillery firing drills in North Korea on March 7, 2024. (Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP, File)

China and Russia have benefitted immensely from the control exerted by the North Korean government, Steel points out in the letter. The two regional allies regularly import North Koreans for labor in defiance of long-established U.N. resolutions.

Steel urged Blinken in the letter to make clear that supreme leader Kim Jong Un’s regime has failed to abide by previously agreed-upon improvements to its human rights conditions, such as discontinuing the use of torture.

The California lawmaker told the Washington Examiner that these issues are particularly close to her as a South Korean immigrant born to two escapees from the North. Her parents met in a refugee camp after each escaped over the border individually.

“Decades after my parents fled following a communist takeover, North Korea’s government continues to abuse basic human rights and aggressively persecute its own citizens,” said Steel.

She continued, “Innocent North Koreans, defectors, and detained foreign citizens need the United States’s help now more than ever.”

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

North Korea’s delinquency on the international stage has taken on new urgency as the United States, South Korea, and the United Nations have confirmed there is evidence that North Korean troops are going to be deployed to aid Russia in its invasion of Ukraine.

Thousands of military personnel have been documented moving via ships from Pyongyang to the Russian port city of Vladivostok. They are expected to join the combat taking place in the Kursk region of Russia currently held by Ukrainian forces.

Washington Examiner · October 30, 2024

4. Ex-Ukraine Defense Minister: Russia ‘Trying to Grow the War’ with North Korean Troops

Zagorodnyuk argues we must help Russia lose to prevent the conflict from growing.

Regarding north Korea gaining combat experience: While it is an important consideration the issue is whether that combat experience can be translated into training for the nKPA. Will Kim Jong UN commit the training resources, money,ammunition, fuel, and time to improve nKPA training to exploit lessons learned. And will the nKPA be able to sustain a level of training that will improve nKPA readiness. So far the regime has not shown any proclivity for prioritizing significant and effective training on a wide scale that is sustained over time. Five to ten annual flight hours for fighter pilots, one magazine per solider per rifle per year, one tank round per tank per year (examples only to make the point) does not equal effective training.

Excerpt:

Zagorodnyuk also said the prospect of an expanding war should be met by stronger Western support for Ukraine, as opposed to pressing Ukraine to make concessions to bring a quick end to the war. “My biggest fear is that the Western leaders will not get it still,” he said. “This conflict will grow unless Russia is losing it.”Meurmishvili spoke with Zaogorondyuk for the latest episode of The World Deciphered.

...

Meurmishvili: South Korea also announced that it would send observers or monitors or advisors to monitor what North Koreans are doing in Ukraine. What does that part mean to you? So there will be North Koreans and South Koreans?

Zagorodnyuk: No, there will be just North Koreans. South Koreans are not sending any soldiers. We didn’t ask. All they [South Koreans] are afraid of, which is absolutely legitimate, is North Korea gaining battlefield experience, because they will be losing most of these soldiers in the battle. But those who survive, and maybe their officers, they will understand something about the modern war. Because they don’t have any combat experience, none of them. They will eventually pay a very dear price, but I guess that price may be affordable to North Korea. So no problem with that for them.

For South Korea, it’s of course a dangerous situation because they will understand that their existential enemy is participating now in a war where they gain the experience of modern warfare, which is changing and evolving dramatically these days. And so they will know about that, more perhaps than South Korea.

Ex-Ukraine Defense Minister: Russia ‘Trying to Grow the War’ with North Korean Troops

A former Ukrainian Minister of Defense warns of a widening war and urges a much tougher stance from the West.

https://www.thecipherbrief.com/ex-ukraine-defense-minister-russia-trying-to-grow-the-war-with-north-korean-troops

EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEWUkrainian Defense Minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk during a session of the Ukrainian Parliament in Kyiv, Ukraine, 29 August 2019. (Photo by Maxym Marusenko/NurPhoto via Getty Images)Tweet

Posted: October 29th, 2024

By The Cipher Brief

EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW — The Pentagon said Monday that North Korea has sent some 10,000 troops to Russia to train and deploy to the battlefield in Ukraine within “the next several weeks.” The new estimate is more than triple the previous figure of 3,000 troops the Pentagon gave last week, and closer to Ukraine’s account that 12,000 North Korean soldiers had arrived in Russia.

Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh also said that some of the North Korean forces have already moved closer to Ukraine, and added that if the troops deploy to the front lines, the U.S. will view them as “co-belligerents in the war” who are valid targets for Ukraine to hit with U.S.-provided weapons.

Also on Monday, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte confirmed Ukrainian intelligence reports that some North Korean soldiers are already in the Kursk region of Russia, where Ukrainian forces have held territory for more than two months. That would mean that North Korean forces have already entered the Russia-Ukraine war on Moscow’s side — though they remain on Russian soil.

As The Cipher Brief has reported, a North Korean deployment to Ukraine would mark the first time a third country had put boots on the ground in the war, marking an unprecedented and potentially dangerous global expansion of the conflict. Experts and officials have warned that it could also lead other countries, in particular France, Poland and South Korea, to consider sending their own forces to Ukraine in response.

Cipher Brief senior international correspondent Ia Meurmishvili spoke with Ukraine’s former Minister of Defense, Andriy Zagorodnyuk about what the involvement of North Korean forces in the war might mean. To Zagorodnyuk, it’s an extreme example of Russian efforts to create an anti-West bloc in support of its invasion. “Russia is trying to grow the war,” he said. “Russia is trying to involve more countries.”

Zagorodnyuk also said the prospect of an expanding war should be met by stronger Western support for Ukraine, as opposed to pressing Ukraine to make concessions to bring a quick end to the war. “My biggest fear is that the Western leaders will not get it still,” he said. “This conflict will grow unless Russia is losing it.”Meurmishvili spoke with Zaogorondyuk for the latest episode of The World Deciphered.

This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

Meurmishvili: What do you make of [the North Korean troop deployment]?

Zagorodnyuk: We’ve been saying for three years that unless this war is lost by Russia, it will turn into [a] much bigger conflict, because other countries will be joining. Russia tries to show to the world that represents a certain coalition. And so [Russia] tried to use Belarusian soldiers, from almost day one of the war. And for a whole number of reasons that didn’t happen, but certainly they tried their best. They immediately used help from Iran, in terms of drones and then ballistic missiles. And then they used to help from [North] Korea, and so on.

Of course, Russia has some resource problems, and manpower issues. That involves funding, because they obviously pay their [soldiers] quite a lot of money, by Russian standards. That’s absolutely astonishing, because they’re paid to die, essentially, with a huge casualty rate. They voluntarily go to die for money. But at the same time, we do know that Russia has economic problems.

Meurmishvili: South Korea also announced that it would send observers or monitors or advisors to monitor what North Koreans are doing in Ukraine. What does that part mean to you? So there will be North Koreans and South Koreans?

Zagorodnyuk: No, there will be just North Koreans. South Koreans are not sending any soldiers. We didn’t ask. All they [South Koreans] are afraid of, which is absolutely legitimate, is North Korea gaining battlefield experience, because they will be losing most of these soldiers in the battle. But those who survive, and maybe their officers, they will understand something about the modern war. Because they don’t have any combat experience, none of them. They will eventually pay a very dear price, but I guess that price may be affordable to North Korea. So no problem with that for them.

For South Korea, it’s of course a dangerous situation because they will understand that their existential enemy is participating now in a war where they gain the experience of modern warfare, which is changing and evolving dramatically these days. And so they will know about that, more perhaps than South Korea.

Meurmishvili: How do you think NATO should respond to this? Do you think there will be any response from NATO?

Zagorodnyuk: I don’t think there will be any response from NATO. That’s of course frustrating, but I don’t think they are going to do anything really. And I don’t think we will see any change. And that’s pretty upsetting by itself. Because again, we’ve been talking about this over and over again, unless Russia is clearly losing this war, the war will be involving more and more countries, and growing. This conflict will grow unless Russia is losing it. This axiom, that logic has applied since 2022. And we’ve been saying this over and over. Now we see that’s happening.

Russia is trying to grow the war. Russia is trying to involve more countries. Russia is trying to create that axis, or at least nourish the axis, develop this axis of nations. So that will continue. Perhaps even more countries will join later. The only way to stop that would be to make Russia lose. How to make Russia lose? We all have been discussing this for a long time. Unless we do that, we will see [the war] growing. Unfortunately, right now, Ukrainians are taking the worst of it. And so, yes, we are a bit upset about it.

Meurmishvili: Do you anticipate increased and intensified financial and military support to Ukraine in light of North Korean troop presence here?

Zagorodnyuk: I don’t think it should be in light of that. Again, we have a very clear strategic goal and that strategic goal is to make Russia lose. So, unless we do that, the situation is going to get worse, it’s not going to get better.

And many people think that if they do a little bit, Russia will say, OK, fine, it’s not working out and they will stop. That’s a huge, monumental strategic mistake of historical proportions. Because if things are just not going well for Russia, they will not stop. They will try to involve more resources, more countries in order for that to work better for them. They will not stop and just say, OK, fine, things are not working out. People who think that they will do that, they don’t understand Russia, they don’t understand this war and they’re making [a mistake of] historical proportions. Russia needs to start losing this war, absolutely clearly in order for that conflict to deescalate.

Meurmishvili: You’ve been predicting that the conflict would involve other countries from the Russian side. What’s your biggest fear? How far can this go?

Zagorodnyuk: Frankly speaking, my biggest fear is that the Western leaders will still not get it. And in this case, they will still be trying to de-escalate, to pacify Russia, to give them some sort of favors and things will get worse. Things will get worse on many levels.

I’m not talking about nuclear weapons, which I don’t believe Russia is going to use in this war. I’m talking about involving more North Koreans, involving more Russians, destroying more Ukrainian cities, continue attacking [in a] hybrid way Western countries and creating that axis of nations.

Basically, Russia will show to the rest of the world, to countries which are still happy to listen to Russia and happy to smile and hug Putin whenever they meet, they will show to these leaders that the West is weak and the West cannot defend Ukraine despite policy statements and political declarations over these three years. And if the West is weak, the world order based on international law is going to be destroyed.

And then the other countries will be joining either through the BRICS [alliance] or through whatever other group of countries joins with Russia. And we will see this massive global conflict shaping up more and more and more. That’s my biggest fear.

And frankly speaking, especially with the visit of the Secretary General of the United Nations, smiling to Putin, displaying the friendship and friendly attitude to him during that trip, I don’t see us going in the right direction at all.

Meurmishvili: And of course there was the BRICS meeting in Kazan and [Chinese President] Xi Jinping met with President Putin, where they reconfirmed their great friendship with each other, and Putin said that this is the beginning of a more fair, more just world order.

What’s the order that China, Russia, Iran, North Korea and other countries want?

Zagorodnyuk: Perhaps they still may not have a single platform at the moment, all these countries which you mentioned. Their platform is similar only in terms of their attitude to certain things, like to the West. It’s tough to say because each of these countries are very different.

But it’s clear what Russia means. Russia considers itself a victim in this situation. A victim of the West in the world’s history, for the last 70 years or so. And they believe that the world order which was created post-World War II is unjust, because it requires them to behave according to standards. And Russia believes that they are above those standards because they are bigger than those standards and they can behave according to whatever standards they set themselves up.

Their understanding of justice is that big countries like Russia, they have more rights than others. They have better rights, they’re better than others, and they can create their own world. That’s what they think is just. And from that perspective, they’re trying to impose those objectives and those visions to the other countries. They are trying to create a group of countries which would be jointly destroying their post-World War order.

I hope that the critical mass of these indicators will finally wake some people up, but we have to wait and see. We still see, in many countries, discussions about some kind of rationalization of what Russia is doing. And that’s extremely dangerous, because it’s showing to Russia that they can continue doing that. They’re talking about the need for Ukraine to make some concessions, for instance, just thinking that those concessions are going to help. Obviously, they won’t. They will actually make matters worse. So there’s lots of people, including in the Western nations, including in the nations which are allies of Ukraine, they’re still trying to rationalize and still trying to find a way how to pacify Russia and end the conflict. That’s not going to work. That never worked with previous ones. It is not going to work with this one.

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5. “Attack! Get down!” North Korea-Russia communication booklet released

This is a Google translation of an RFA report.

There is a lot to parse on this issue. Most of my comments were omitted from the interview. Interpretation and translation is hard. While there are common tactical communications techniques, (e.g., hand and arm signals ascertain aspects of fire and maneuver are universal) complex orders require effective translation and interpretation (the latter being more complex and more important. A translator may be nothing more effective than Google translate, translating the words, but an interpreter must have an understanding of complex military concepts in both languages for there to be effective communications. The article describes what might compare to the "Headstart" program in Korea and Europe where US troops were taught basic phrases upon arrival in country.

As noted there is no apparent history of the Russian and north Korean troops training together and developing any kind of interoperability. Whereas the ROK and US focus have been living, working, and training together for 70 years. While Koreans speak better English than American speak Korean both sides have excellent interpreters and there is so much "cross pollination" of doctrine through exchanges in units and in PME institutions that a high level (or at least a sufficient level) of interoperability is sustained. Most importantly the ROK/US Combined Forces Command is a completely integrated ROK/US staff (or at least it used to be when it was in Yongsan) and is the crown jewel of combined military operations. The ROK and US Army have one more great advantage which is the KATUSA program (Korean Augmentees to the US Army). This program was established in 1950 and continues to this day. These are actual Korean soldiers assigned to US Army units and fill actual US Army positions. (When I was commanding a company in 2ID in the 1980s I had 160 soldiers, 30 of whom were KATUSAs - at the time they provided more continuity because they were serving 28 months (at that time) while the US troops were on only 12 month tours)).

It appears from one report that the Russians are planning to assign 1 translator and 3 officers to every 30 north Korean soldiers. I would say this is a recipe for disaster especially if the intent for the 3 Russian officers is to "control and command" the north Korean troops. If this reporting is accurate it appears that the Russians have little respect for and do not trust the north Korean troops.

So there is one major problem for the Russians and north Korean forces. While communications are critically important, the foundation of combined operations must be built on trust. Two conditions lead to trust: One is through living, working, training, and bonding together (as one of my many great Command Sergeants Major used to tell us, soldiers bond in three ways: shared combat, shared hardship in training, and shared beer drinking [or soju in Korea and I suppose vodka in Russia]). These relationships do not (yet) exist between the Russians and north Korea forces. The second condition that is required for trust is respect. Based on the intercepts we have seen released by the Ukrainians we have heard how the Russians refer to the "K-Battalions" from north Korea, e.g., "effing Chinese" and other derogatory statements.

“Attack! Get down!” North Korea-Russia communication booklet released

https://www.rfa.org/korean/in_focus/nk_nuclear_talks/communication-book-10292024161558.html

WASHINGTON-Jamin Anderson andersonj@rfa.org

2024.10.29

A booklet containing various military vocabulary and commands written in Russian and Korean.

/ X @RWApodcast

00:00 /04:25

Anchor : As North Korean troops deployed to Russia are about to be deployed to the Ukrainian battlefield , a video and a booklet have been released that suggest Russian soldiers are learning Korean to communicate with North Korean soldiers . Experts are skeptical that learning basic vocabulary alone will be enough to communicate effectively on the battlefield . Reporter Jamin Anderson reports .

A video posted on Telegram, an online social networking service of a pro-Ukrainian group, on the 28th .

A soldier, presumably Russian, is holding a piece of paper with Korean writing on it.

When the person filming the video asks, “ Are your studies going well ?” the boy responds by swearing .

[ Audio within video ] ' What's going on ?' Hahaha . I don't understand what you're saying . ' Where are you from ?' This is really messed up .

The paper the soldier is holding contains more than twenty basic Korean phrases such as " Hello ," " Nice to meet you ," and " What's going on ?" along with their English pronunciations and Russian translations .

You will also see sentences like ' I am from Russia ', ' Where are you from ?', ' I can speak a little Korean ' , ' Do you have an interpreter ?'

This is a passage where Russian soldiers are believed to be studying how to communicate with North Korean soldiers.

The channel administrator (Exilenova+) who uploaded the video told RFA on the 29th , “ The original source of the video is the Russian military’s Telegram channel , and it cannot be made public because it is a means of obtaining information . ”

Additionally, on the 28th, a military terminology booklet written in Korean and Russian was uploaded to the Han X account .

The front of the booklet features the Russian military insignia along with the word "Instructions" written in Russian , with explanations of "Basic Korean Phrases" below .

The cover also features the Russian and North Korean flags side by side, with the words "Things to Know" underneath : " Soldiers and officers should learn the following Korean phrases for effective communication on the battlefield . "

The booklet is written in Russian on one side and Korean next to it , and contains phrases to be used on the battlefield, such as "Down ! Attack ! Put down your weapons ! What is your rank and position ? What unit are you from ? "

The booklet appears to have been produced in a three-fold format so that soldiers could see and communicate directly on the battlefield .

Radio Free Asia (RFA) has not been able to independently verify the authenticity of the video and photos .

Video of a Russian soldier believed to be studying Korean. / Telegram @Exilenova+

Lee Hyun-seung, a defector who served in the 4th Corps Artillery Reconnaissance Battalion of the Korean People's Army , said that North Korean soldiers also learn simple Russian commands .

[ Mr. Lee Hyun-seung ] North Korean soldiers are assigned to each unit in simple English or Russian . There are simple commands like ' stand still ', ' shoot ', ' stop ' . So they must have mastered that language . Of course, communication is not smooth and there are obstacles , but I think the officers in the unit interpret for each other, and the regular soldiers do not interact with the Russian soldiers .

However, it is questionable how much such basic language acquisition will help in an actual battlefield.

In relation to this, the South Korean National Intelligence Service announced on the 23rd that “ there is a trend of the Russian military recruiting Korean language interpreters on a large scale, ” and on the 29th that they are training the North Korean military in essential combat terms, but it does not seem easy to resolve communication issues .

These are the words of Lee Seong-gwon, floor leader of the National Assembly Intelligence Committee of the People Power Party, South Korea's ruling party.

[ Rep. Lee Seong-kwon ] ( Russia ) We are teaching about 100 military terms, but there are rumors that the North Korean military is having difficulty with them . So we predict that resolving the communication problem is uncertain .

David Maxwell, deputy director of the Asia-Pacific Strategy Center and former operations staff officer for the ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command, told RFA on the same day, “ Even if interpreters are hired in a hurry, it will be difficult to conduct effective combat command if they are undertrained . ”

[ Vice President Maxwell ] It takes a lot of practice for the armies of two countries with different languages to be able to conduct effective combat through interpreters within their armies . South Korea and the United States have been conducting regular training with interpreters and translators stationed in their respective units for the past 70 years . However, Russia and North Korea have never conducted joint training , and there is no evidence that the two countries have conducted interoperability training .

' North Korean Troop Deployment ' Related Fake Photo / Video SNS Alert

Additional Deletion of Pro-North Korean YouTube Accounts... Is It Because of North Korean Troop Deployment of Russia ? Recording

of Russian Soldiers Mocking and Hostilities of Deployed North Korean Troops Released

This is not the first time that documents written in Korean have been discovered in Russia since rumors of North Korean troops being dispatched to Russia began to surface.

On the 21st , American broadcaster CNN reported on a Korean-language questionnaire obtained through the Ukrainian Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security . The questionnaire included instructions in Korean that read, “ Please fill out your hat size ( circumference ), uniform / military uniform measurements, and shoe size documents, ” along with instructions in Russian that contained the same content .

It is believed to be a document created for the purpose of providing supplies such as military uniforms and boots to North Korean soldiers dispatched to Russia.

Editor Park Jeong-woo, Web Editor Kim Sang-il

6. North Korean troops possibly heading to front lines, language barrier causing problems, says South Korea

More than language. Respect and trust.

North Korean troops possibly heading to front lines, language barrier causing problems, says South Korea

kyivindependent.com · by The Kyiv Independent news desk · October 29, 2024

North Korean troops deployed to Russia may be headed to the front lines, South Korean officials said on Oct. 29 after a briefing by Seoul's intelligence agency.

Speaking at a press briefing, lawmaker Lee Seong-kweun did not say when they would likely arrive on the battlefield and said Pyongyong and Moscow's troops were being hindered by a language barrier.

"The Russian military was teaching the North Korean military some 100 Russian military terms such as 'back to your position,' 'fire' and 'launch'... but the North Korean military was struggling (to understand)," he said in comments reported by Reuters.

The assessment comes shortly after NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte confirmed on Oct. 28 that North Korea had sent troops to Russia following a meeting with South Korean defense and intelligence officials.

North Korea and Russia have strengthened ties since the full-scale war began, including signing a new mutual defense pact. Ukraine and Western governments have previously accused North Korea of providing weapons to Russia—allegations both Pyongyang and Moscow have denied.

The growing North Korean support for Russia's war, namely the dispatch of troops, sparked discussions in South Korea on revising internal legislation to allow military supplies to Ukraine.

A South Korean delegation will visit Ukraine in the second part of the week to share information on North Korea's troops in Russia and discuss cooperation, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said on Oct. 28, the Yonhap news agency reported.

"It is a grave situation where the actual deployment of North Korean troops to the front lines in Ukraine could happen sooner than expected," Yoon said.

President Volodymyr Zelensky warned earlier this month that Russia intends to deploy North Korean troops to the battlefield in the coming days.

Ukrainian military intelligence reported on Oct. 24 that approximately 12,000 North Korean troops, including 500 officers and three generals, were already in Russia and undergoing training at five military bases.

Ukraine expands long-range drone strikes target list, alcohol now on the menu

Ukraine faces a tricky dilemma as winter approaches. How can it disrupt an expected mass Russian missile campaign targeting the country’s infrastructure while simultaneously being barred from using Western-supplied weapons to strike deep inside Russia? Despite being limited to the use of long-ra…

The Kyiv IndependentChris York

kyivindependent.com · by The Kyiv Independent news desk · October 29, 2024

7. Zelensky: North Korea's troop support pushing Ukraine war beyond borders

But our "prime directive" is no escalation. How do we prevent escalation? Ensure Ukraine is successful in its defense.

Zelensky: North Korea's troop support pushing Ukraine war beyond borders

Newsweek · by Lilith Foster-Collins · October 29, 2024

ByNews Reporter

✓ Link copied to clipboard!

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Tuesday that North Korea's military support for Russia is pushing the conflict beyond the borders of Ukraine and Russia.

"There is only one conclusion—this war is internationalized and goes beyond the borders of Ukraine and Russia," Zelensky wrote on Telegram.

Western officials estimate that North Korea has sent approximately 10,000 troops to reinforce Russian forces in Ukraine.

The move has prompted warnings that Pyongyang's growing role in the European conflict could destabilize the Indo-Pacific region, including nations such as Japan and Australia.

Firefighters inspect the damaged office building after it was hit by Russian aerial guided bombs in central Kharkiv, Ukraine, Monday, Oct. 28, 2024. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Tuesday the arrival of North Korean soldiers... Firefighters inspect the damaged office building after it was hit by Russian aerial guided bombs in central Kharkiv, Ukraine, Monday, Oct. 28, 2024. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Tuesday the arrival of North Korean soldiers are pushing the war beyond borders. Efrem Lukatsky/AP

How Many North Korean Troops are in Russia?

Zelensky disclosed that he had spoken with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, revealing that around 3,000 North Korean soldiers are already stationed at military bases near the Ukrainian front lines.

Zelensky expects that number to swell to as many as 12,000 troops.

In response, South Korea—already in close contact with NATO, the U.S., and the European Union—has indicated it may send arms to Ukraine if North Korea's involvement escalates further.

Zelensky and Yeol agreed to bolster bilateral cooperation, ramp up intelligence exchanges, and develop coordinated responses to North Korea's involvement.

Meanwhile, North Korea's top diplomat is currently visiting Russia.

North Korea continues its aggressive weapons testing, while South Korea and the United States are intensifying their joint military drills in response.

Overnight Assault on Kyiv and Kharkiv

Also on Tuesday, Russian drones, missiles, and bombs pounded Kyiv and Kharkiv, Ukraine's two largest cities, killing four civilians and wounding 15 others.

As part of an overnight assault, Russia dropped a glide bomb on the landmark Derzhprom building in Kharkiv city center in the early hours of Tuesday, injuring seven people, according to Ukrainian authorities.

Derzhprom, also known as the Palace of Industry, is under consideration to be included in UNESCO's World Heritage List as an example of modernist architecture.

Russian forces have intensified their attacks against Ukraine since launching their full-scale invasion nearly three years ago, with daily strikes leading to thousands of civilian casualties.

The Russian military is also mounting fierce offensives on front-line positions in the eastern Donetsk region, an area that has seen some of the war's most brutal fighting.

The assault on Kharkiv, located in northeastern Ukraine, struck a residential area around 3 a.m., regional Governor Oleh Syniehubov reported.

Four people were killed in the blast, and nearly 20 homes sustained significant damage.

Terekhov urged residents to take air raid warnings seriously amid what he described as an intensified Russian campaign targeting Kharkiv in recent days.

In Kyiv, debris from intercepted Russian drones rained down on two districts, leaving six people injured.

Ukraine's Drone Offensive

Meanwhile, Ukraine has continued its strategy of hitting Russian targets using long-range drones.

On Tuesday, a drone attack hit a special forces academy in Russia's Chechnya province, resulting in a fire that was quickly contained, according to Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

This attack marks the first drone strike of the conflict on Chechnya, which is located roughly 500 miles east of Ukraine.

This article includes reporting from The Associated Press

Newsweek · by Lilith Foster-Collins · October 29, 2024

8. North Korea’s elite troops are in Russia to fight Ukraine: What we know

Can they fight a combined arms maneuver fight? Will they have proper support either organically or from the Russians? Or will they simply be integrated into Russian units? So far we have not seen any actual fighting to know how they are being employed. And most importantly, if they have any success will the Russians be able to exploit such success?

But are they 10 feet tall as many fear?

Excerpts:

In the decades since, the KPA has evolved into one of the world’s largest militaries with about 1.2 million soldiers, including Special Operations units and an aspiring nuclear force.

Most North Korean soldiers are underfed and poorly equipped, experts and escapees from North Korea say. The level of malnourishment in the population is reflected in the minimum height and weight requirements for military conscripts: soldiers must be at least 4-foot-10 (148 cm) and weigh 95 pounds (43 kilograms) to be eligible to serve, according to research by the South Korean Unification Ministry.

...

Although they are among the North’s best trained troops, these soldiers are likely to face difficulties adjusting to modern warfare, said Hyunseung Lee, a North Korean escapee and human rights advocate who trained with the Storm Corps for six months while he served in the North Korean army’s special forces.

“They’re not trained with the best technology [or] advanced equipment,” Lee said. “If they were deployed in the war’s battlefield, the Ukrainians will use advanced technologies and drones and missiles. They will just not have had that experience before.”

Lee noted that for the vast majority of these special forces soldiers, deployment to Russia will be their first time encountering battle — and the outside world. He added that the soldiers are “victims of a ruthless deal between Kim Jong-un and Putin,” and that “many of them are facing their first real battle, ill-equipped and terrified.”

North Korea’s elite troops are in Russia to fight Ukraine: What we know

The North Korean Special Forces sent to Russia are the state’s best trained troops but they will face challenges with modern warfare technology, experts say.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/10/29/north-korea-elite-troops-russia-ukraine-war/

8 min

409

Korean People's Army soldiers march through Kim Il Sung Square in the North Korean capital, Pyongyang, during a military parade marking the 105th anniversary of the birth of the late North Korean leader Kim Il Sung, on April 15, 2017. (Ed Jones/AFP/Getty Images)

By Michelle Ye Hee Lee

October 29, 2024 at 5:36 a.m. EDT

SEOUL — As many as 10,000 North Korean soldiers are being trained in Russia and some have already been deployed in the war against Ukraine, an unprecedented move by Pyongyang to send its people into danger in a combat zone far from the Korean Peninsula.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un appears to have dispatched some of his best soldiers to aid Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war effort, including the elite “Storms Corps” unit that had long been training to infiltrate the South, according to South Korean intelligence officials.

U.S. and NATO officials have warned that the infusion of North Korean troops could be a “dangerous expansion” of the war in Ukraine and a “very, very serious issue” that could have reverberations in both Europe and the Pacific. The deployment of North Korean forces is the latest sign of the deepening military cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow as they join forces against the West.

What do we know about the North Korean forces being deployed to Russia?

What to know

Who serves in the North Korean military?

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The North’s military, known as the Korean People’s Army (KPA), was established in 1948 with the backing of what was then the Soviet Union, to support the new state’s founder, Kim Il Sung, as he defended his fledgling regime and sought to dominate the Korean Peninsula by force.

Following World news

Following

Since the 1950-1953 Korean War halted in an armistice, soldiers on both sides of the Korean Peninsula have been preparing for conflict to resume.

In the decades since, the KPA has evolved into one of the world’s largest militaries with about 1.2 million soldiers, including Special Operations units and an aspiring nuclear force.

Most North Korean soldiers are underfed and poorly equipped, experts and escapees from North Korea say. The level of malnourishment in the population is reflected in the minimum height and weight requirements for military conscripts: soldiers must be at least 4-foot-10 (148 cm) and weigh 95 pounds (43 kilograms) to be eligible to serve, according to research by the South Korean Unification Ministry.

North Korean men are drafted into the military. They typically begin their service at 17 years old, and serve for eight to 10 years. Some women also serve in the military, typically for five years.

Most of the troops sent to Russia are in their early 20s, while some are teenagers, the South Korean spy agency told lawmakers on Tuesday.

Only the most elite North Koreans and those deemed hostile to the regime — for example, family members of North Koreans who have escaped the country — are exempt from military service.

For the vast majority who do serve, they are put to work rather than into military operations. Because North Korea suffers from chronic food insecurity, soldiers are often dispatched to plant or harvest crops.

This undated photo released by North Korea's official Korean Central News Agency on Aug. 26, 2017, shows leader Kim Jong Un presiding over a target strike exercise conducted by the Special Operations Forces of the Korean People's Army at an undisclosed location. (KCNA/KNS/AFP/Getty Images)

What do we know about North Korea’s elite troops being deployed to Russia, including the ‘Storm Corps’?

Return to menu

The soldiers sent to Russia were Special Operations Forces, including from North Korea’s elite 11th Army Corps, often called the “Storm Corps,” South Korea’s spy agency said last week.

North Korea’s Special Operations units are trained with the best equipment, including explosives, chemical and biological agents, parachutes and aircraft — although rudimentary compared to the special forces units of other countries, according to a 2021 Defense Intelligence Agency report on North Korea’s military power.

The various special forces units comprise more than 200,000 personnel, according to the report. These elite units are highly trained, and have long been training to attack South Korea or defend against foreign attacks on the North.

The special forces encompass troops from the navy, army and air force. They operate in specialized units, which include reconnaissance, sniper and commando squads, according to the DIA. They are trained in specialized skills, such as kidnapping key personnel and launching surprise attacks that catch the enemy off-guard.

These troops have been involved in some of North Korea’s most notorious military operations over the past few decades, including a 1968 raid on Seoul that led to fatalities on both sides.

These special forces are so prized in North Korea that have been featured in state media — often touted as the strongest soldiers, sometimes appearing shirtless to demonstrate their muscular physiques.

Although they are among the North’s best trained troops, these soldiers are likely to face difficulties adjusting to modern warfare, said Hyunseung Lee, a North Korean escapee and human rights advocate who trained with the Storm Corps for six months while he served in the North Korean army’s special forces.

“They’re not trained with the best technology [or] advanced equipment,” Lee said. “If they were deployed in the war’s battlefield, the Ukrainians will use advanced technologies and drones and missiles. They will just not have had that experience before.”

Lee noted that for the vast majority of these special forces soldiers, deployment to Russia will be their first time encountering battle — and the outside world. He added that the soldiers are “victims of a ruthless deal between Kim Jong-un and Putin,” and that “many of them are facing their first real battle, ill-equipped and terrified.”

How many troops is North Korea sending to Russia and where are they going?

Return to menu

The Pentagon said Monday that up to 10,000 North Korean soldiers have been sent to eastern Russia for military training, and are probably being trained to augment Putin’s forces. Ukrainian and South Korean officials have given higher estimates of 12,000 to 19,000.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said Monday that North Korean soldiers have been deployed to Kursk, the Russian border region where Ukrainian forces seized territory in a surprise attack over the summer. Ukrainians have struggled to hold on to their gains in Kursk since their offensive.

NATO: North Korean troops deployed to Russia's Kursk

1:24

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said on Oct. 28 that North Korean soldiers helping Moscow have been deployed to Russia’s Kursk region. (Video: Reuters)

Kim Yeol-su, a senior security expert at the Korea Institute for Military Affairs in Seoul, said other personnel are probably being sent to Russia to support the elite troops, such as engineering and reserves units and those helping with logistics, ammunition support and transportation.

“The special forces are likely to be the main troops being there. But if there are tens of thousands being sent, there must be many more soldiers who are being sent along with the Storm Corps to provide them with food, shelter, ammunition, communications, and so on,” Kim said.

Despite their specialization, the special forces troops are likely to be helping with combat missions as they are being trained and learning how the Russians are fighting and communicating, Kim said.

A former Kremlin official, who is still close to government circles, said the North Korean deployment in Kursk was “an act of revenge after what the Kremlin perceives as an escalation in Kursk” and the decision by Kyiv’s Western allies to allow some strikes inside Russia. “This is another step on the escalation scale.”

The former official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to freely discuss sensitive matters, said it’s “cheaper and politically simpler” for the Kremlin to deploy North Korean forces. The official said he believed that North Korea is receiving much-needed cash for the deployment, as well as military experience and battlefield skills for the troops.

South Korea’s spy agency said last week that Russia is expected to pay each North Korean soldier about $2,000 each month — an enormous amount by North Korean standards. The lowest monthly salary for a Russian private soldier in the combat zone is $2,500, Andrei Lankov, a prominent scholar in North Korean-Russian relations, wrote in NK News, a specialist website.

What is North Korea’s military relationship with Russia?

Return to menu

Kim and Putin have deepened their partnership against a Western-led global order since the invasion, and Kim has pledged “full” support for Putin’s fight. Moscow first turned to Pyongyang for weapons that it desperately needs, according to U.S., Ukrainian and South Korean officials.

And now, Kim is sending his own citizens to fight — a highly unusual move for a country that has rarely gotten involved in foreign wars.

Both Russia and North Korea have obliquely acknowledged the presence of the troops, with a North Korean vice foreign minister saying last week that if the “rumor” is true, “it will be an act conforming with the regulations of international law.”

President Putin last week cited the Russia-North Korea defense treaty signed in June, which states that if one country is subject to an “armed invasion,” the other would provide “military and other assistance with all means in its possession.” The treaty was speedily ratified by Russia’s parliament last week.

The two pariah states now appear to be putting that treaty into action.

Francesca Ebel in Moscow contributed reporting.

409

9. How Russia is transporting North Korean troops to the front lines of Ukraine war

Any chance to affect this transportation system?

How Russia is transporting North Korean troops to the front lines of Ukraine war

NK News analysis suggests Moscow prefers transport by plane, with suspicious flights from Far East to city near Ukraine

https://www.nknews.org/2024/10/how-russia-is-transporting-north-korean-troops-to-the-front-lines-of-ukraine-war/?t=1730243979

Ifang Bremer | Joon Ha Park October 29, 2024

Airbus A330-200 | Image: Laurent Errera via Wikimedia Commons

Reports that North Korean troops have already arrived in combat zones bordering Ukraine have raised alarm about their rapid deployment in support of Russia’s invasion, as well as questions about how the allies are transporting thousands of DPRK soldiers to the front lines.

South Korea, the U.S. and others have assessed that Russia transported North Korean personnel to training centers in the Far East earlier this month, but these troops would still need to travel thousands of miles to fight in Eastern Europe.

While Russia commonly uses trains to transport soldiers across its vast territory, NK News analysis suggests that this could pose operational security concerns for the sensitive deployment, making flights a faster and more discrete way to get North Korean troops to the fighting front.

What’s more, a series of suspicious flights from the Far East to a city near the Ukrainian border raise the possibility that Russia is using civilian aircraft to carry out the deployment while avoiding detection.

OPTION 1: BY LAND

Russia’s first option would be to transport the thousands of troops by either train or truck, a journey that would take many days but is likely the most economical.

Andrew Curtis, a retired air commodore for the British Royal Air Force and a military logistics expert, told NK News that the Russian military’s logistic system “makes extensive use of the rail network within Russia.”

“Even though it would likely take several days to complete, the default option to deploy troops over this distance would be rail,” he said, emphasizing that air travel is expensive.

The Ukrainian military has reportedly detected signs that Russia is transporting DPRK troops to the front lines in civilian trucks to avoid detection. But it appears unlikely that such vehicles transported the soldiers all the way from the Far East, more likely shuttling troops from airfields and train stations that are further from combat areas.

Shin Seung-ki, a senior analyst at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, emphasized that overland travel is slow and that days-long train rides would increase the likelihood of the general public observing North Korean troops.

“Given the condition of Russian railways, maintaining speeds over 100 kilometers per hour (62 mph) is challenging,” the expert told NK News. “The risk of information leaks is high, offering opportunities for civilian observation at stops that can compromise the security of the operation.”

OPTION 2: BY AIR

A more expensive but faster and more discrete option would be to fly North Korean troops to near the front lines, and there is some circumstantial evidence that this may be taking place.

Shin explained that large civilian aircraft could transport up to 300 soldiers per flight.

“With three or four planes, Russia could move about 1,000 troops in just half a day,” the expert said, assessing that Russia could quickly reinforce positions to counter Ukrainian forces in contested regions like Kursk.

While trains may offer higher total capacity, Shin emphasized that air transport allows for sequential deployment, enabling a steady accumulation of forces in the Kursk region over a relatively short period.

He suggested Russia might even prefer to use civilian aircraft to avoid detection, much as it is reportedly doing with civilian trucks near Ukraine.

Notably, there have been several suspicious flights from the Russian Far East in recent weeks that could have been used to carry out such an operation, according to NK News analysis.

On Oct. 22, an Airbus A330 operated by the small Russian airline iFly flew from Vladivostok International Airport toward the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don near eastern Ukraine, data from Flightradar24 shows. It disappeared from the flight tracker’s coverage after passing the city of Samara, but the iFly’s website confirms scheduled flights from Vladivostok to Rostov-on-Don.

The flight took place just two days after Seoul announced that North Korea had deployed troops to Russia, and NK News analysis of flight data and schedules shows the aircraft with a capacity of 300 passengers has since made four more flights to Rostov-on-Don — two from Vladivostok and two from Khabarovsk, both places where North Korean troops are allegedly undergoing training.

While it’s possible the flights were chartered for civilian use, the Rostov-on-Don Platov Airport where the aircraft landed, currently “does not accept and does not release aircraft until further notice” due to the closure of airspace over the war in Ukraine, according to its website.

The flights also did not appear on the Vladivostok airport’s official departure and arrivals schedule, raising further questions about their purpose.

A comparison of satellite imagery of Platov International Airport on Oct. 24 (left) and Oct. 26 (right) show the officially closed airport is still being used | Image: Planet Labs

Meanwhile, several media organizations have reported that the Platov airport has continued to operate for Russia’s military, further evidence that the recent civilian flights from the Far East had a military purpose like transporting North Korean troops.

Kyodo News has reported that DPRK soldiers have been deployed to the Rostov region, which borders the Russian occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk in Ukraine.

Rostov-on-Don, the administrative center of the region, is also a 10-hour drive from Kursk, where NATO says North Korean troops have already been deployed.

iFly did not immediately respond to NK News questions about the flights.

The New York Times has quoted Ukrainian officials as stating that DPRK troops “are being flown from Vladivostok aboard enormous Il-76 transport planes to a military airfield in western Russia, then driven into the battle zone.”

However, Kyiv has not provided more detailed information about the transportation of DPRK troops to regions nearing Ukraine, and such military flights have not appeared in public flight-tracking data.

The unusual pattern of civilian flights from the Far East to Rostov-on-Don has taken place alongside a series of suspicious flights between North Korea and Russia in recent weeks.

A Russian air force passenger plane stopped in North Korea late Sunday night before flying toward western Russia, while a Russian government Il-96-300 jet (RA-96014) made a roundtrip from Moscow to Pyongyang last Wednesday and another Ilyushin Il-62M jet (RA-86559) also flew the same route on Oct. 17.

Edited by Bryan Betts

10. Kim Jong Un appears to fear possible assassination, South Korean spy agency says

Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they are not out to get you.

Is Kim Ju Ae really a legitimate successor?

But again, if we learn today that Kim Jong Un is dead, incapacitated or somehow removed, what actions are we prepared to take immediately to influence the outcome? Have we sufficiently warmed multiple options for response?

Excerpts:

Hong Min, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU), told NK News that alleged South Korean drone flights over Pyongyang this month may aggravated Kim’s concerns about his personal security, while increased reconnaissance by the U.S.-ROK alliance may have contributed to “a sense of vulnerability.”

Lee Choongkoo, a principal research fellow at the Korean Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA), agreed that modern warfare advancements may have prompted Pyongyang to focus on countermeasures in order to protect its leadership.

“Kim Jong Un is perhaps the most vulnerable figure in North Korea in this new age of precision warfare, which allows for real-time targeted strikes,” he said.

“This doesn’t necessarily imply an imminent assassination threat but suggests an awareness of the ongoing evolution toward more technologically sophisticated warfare.”

In Tuesday’s briefing, the NIS also noted that some North Korean news outlets have stopped using the Juche calendar that starts from founder Kim Il Sung’s birth year, interpreting this as a sign that the regime is taking measures to increase the current leader’s idolization over his predecessors.

At the same time, the leadership also appears to have elevated the status of Kim’s daughter and expanded the scope of her activities to include ruling party events, according to the NIS.

Kim Jong Un appears to fear possible assassination, South Korean spy agency says

NIS cites increased security around North Korean leader, while assessing DPRK generals deployed to support Russia’s war

https://www.nknews.org/2024/10/kim-jong-un-appears-to-fear-possible-assassination-south-korean-spy-agency-says/

Joon Ha Park | Shreyas Reddy October 29, 2024

Bodyguards watch over Kim Jong Un as the North Korean leader and senior military officials oversee a military drill. | Image: KCNA (Sept. 13, 2024)

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un appears to harbor concerns about the possibility of being assassinated, according to South Korea’s intelligence service, citing signs that the authoritarian ruler has ramped up security measures at his public appearances this year.

The National Intelligence Service (NIS) shared its assessment with lawmakers during the agency’s closed-doors National Assembly audit on Tuesday, stating that Pyongyang’s leadership has equipped vehicles with signal jammers and introduced drone detection equipment.

Despite these apparent concerns over his security, the agency noted that Kim has made 110 more public appearances in 2024 than last year, an increase of 60%.

Lee Seongkweun of the ruling People Power Party and Park Sun-won of the main opposition Democratic Party relayed NIS analysis on Kim Jong Un’s apparent security paranoia, along with updates on DPRK troop deployments to Russia, at a press conference after the audit session.

Hong Min, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU), told NK News that alleged South Korean drone flights over Pyongyang this month may aggravated Kim’s concerns about his personal security, while increased reconnaissance by the U.S.-ROK alliance may have contributed to “a sense of vulnerability.”

Lee Choongkoo, a principal research fellow at the Korean Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA), agreed that modern warfare advancements may have prompted Pyongyang to focus on countermeasures in order to protect its leadership.

“Kim Jong Un is perhaps the most vulnerable figure in North Korea in this new age of precision warfare, which allows for real-time targeted strikes,” he said.

“This doesn’t necessarily imply an imminent assassination threat but suggests an awareness of the ongoing evolution toward more technologically sophisticated warfare.”

In Tuesday’s briefing, the NIS also noted that some North Korean news outlets have stopped using the Juche calendar that starts from founder Kim Il Sung’s birth year, interpreting this as a sign that the regime is taking measures to increase the current leader’s idolization over his predecessors.

At the same time, the leadership also appears to have elevated the status of Kim’s daughter and expanded the scope of her activities to include ruling party events, according to the NIS.

The agency added that the leader’s powerful sister Kim Yo Jong appears to be guiding the daughter, whom the NIS identifies as Kim Ju Ae despite state media never having reported her name, while foreign minister Choe Son Hui seems to be assisting her.

The NIS highlighted her growing prominence through her direct interaction with senior officials such as Russia’s ambassador to the DPRK, the assignment of dedicated bodyguards and state media releasing photos of the father-daughter duo.

Kim Jong Un standing next to his daughter during an inspection visit to the Sunchon airfield | Image: KCNA (Dec. 1, 2023)

DPRK DEPLOYMENTS TO RUSSIA

At Tuesday’s audit session, the NIS also revealed its latest assessments on the status of North Korea’s troop deployment to Russia, stating that DPRK soldiers and high-ranking generals have been moved to the frontlines of the war against Ukraine.

The agency has assessed that Pyongyang has transferred more than 3,000 troops to Russia’s Far East for training so far and the deployment still appears to be “in progress,” the lawmakers told reporters after the audit.

“[The NIS] is checking the possibility that some personnel, including high-ranking military generals, may be moving to the front line,” they added.

South Korean intelligence previously assessed that North Korea had already deployed 3,000 troops to the region and added that this number is likely to rise to 10,000 by December.

Lee of KIDA said the deployment of high-ranking North Korean military officers to the front lines implies that accompanying units are prepared to enter combat, which could carry “serious ramifications.”

He stated that the prospect of senior officials being injured or killed could drag North Korea further into the conflict as it may feel compelled to respond, making it harder to withdraw without repercussions.

The NIS did not identify the senior North Korean military officials involved, but the agency’s First Vice Director Hong Jang-won on Monday reportedly confirmed Japanese reports suggesting Korean People’s Army General Staff deputy chief Kim Yong Bok traveled to Russia to oversee the dispatched units.

“The identification of Vice Chief of Staff Kim Yong Bok, a three-star general, at the front lines suggests that he may be overseeing the entire deployment of North Korean personnel,” KINU’s Hong told NK News.

He added that additional high-ranking officers are probably accompanying Kim, including staff officers from the Special Forces Command and brigade commanders.

A screenshot of footage purporting to show North Korean soldiers at a Russian training base | Source: Center for Strategic Communication and Information Security

The ROK intelligence agency’s briefing on the DPRK deployments comes after Ukrainian authorities repeatedly stated over the past week that North Korean soldiers have already reached the Kursk region, near the Ukrainian border.

Hong said the deployment of North Korean forces to the Russian territory, parts of which are still held by Ukrainian forces, holds particular significance.

“Should North Korean forces engage in operations within Russian-held Ukrainian territory, this could risk being interpreted as active participation in the conflict,” he said.

“By focusing on support roles within undisputed Russian territory, North Korea may aim to avoid the legal implications of being seen as an external combatant.”

Hong explained that some North Korean forces may be potentially deployed in defensive positions to maintain stability, while others may be involved in offensive operations aimed at reclaiming territories. Others still may operate in a “bridge” role and fill gaps temporarily, allowing Russian units to rotate in, he added.

“Despite their presence near the front, North Korean units could assume roles ranging from direct combat to logistical support, defense and even reserve functions,” he said.

The NIS stated that a Russian government plane that traveled between Moscow and Pyongyang from last Wednesday to Thursday appeared to carry a “key Russian security official” involved in facilitating the deployment, but did not provide details about the official.

According to the lawmakers, the intelligence agency assessed that there is a growing “sense of unrest” among North Korean residents as news of the deployment spreads and the regime appears to be falsely telling soldiers’ families that they are going for training.

Amid speculation that Seoul could use North Korean troops’ presence outside their borders to entice some into defecting, the NIS emphasized that it would be “naturally accepted” for captured soldiers to switch allegiance as they already count as South Korean citizens under the ROK constitution.

However, the agency stressed that Seoul is not considering the possibility of sending the South Korean military, after recent controversy over a ruling party lawmaker proposing the bombing of DPRK troops deployed to Russia.

Separately, the NIS said North Korea appears to be continuing to send overseas workers to Russia as part of its efforts to evade sanctions and earn illicit revenue, with an estimated 4,000 workers dispatched this year alone.

Edited by Alannah Hill

11. U.S.-Republic of Korea Security Consultative Meeting and 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue Fact Sheet

Download the 2 page PDF here: https://media.defense.gov/2024/Oct/30/2003574696/-1/-1/0/ROK-SCM-FACT-SHEET-V5.PDF

A solid agenda. I just wish they would include the pursuit of the acceptable durable political arrangement on the Korean peninsula that will serve, protect, and advance ROK and US interests on the Korean peninsula, in Northeast Asia, and the world.

Note the issues that run counter to Lt Gen Leaf's recommendations for the new commander in Korea.

U.S.-Republic of Korea Security Consultative Meeting and 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue Fact Sheet

During the 56th U.S.-Republic of Korea (ROK) Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) on October 30, 2024,

U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III and ROK Minister of National Defense Kim Yong Hyun advanced numerous initiatives that deepen our extended deterrence cooperation, modernize our alliance capabilities, and strengthen our contributions to regional security.

On October 31, Secretary Austin and Minister Kim will join U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and ROK Minister of Foreign Affairs Cho Tae-yul for a Foreign and Defense Ministers’ Meeting (2+2 Meeting) to align our diplomatic and defense efforts, ensuring that bilateral activities are synchronized to advance our Alliance’s shared values and interests.

ENHANCING EXTENDED DETERRENCE

The United States reaffirmed that its extended deterrence commitment to the ROK is ironclad. The United States and the ROK are enhancing our combined deterrence and response posture by:

• Enhancing extended deterrence cooperation through Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) workstreams that enable integrated planning, decision-making, and execution of conventional-nuclear operations, as laid out in the “Guidelines for Nuclear Deterrence and Nuclear Operations on the Korean Peninsula.”

• Conducting large-scale field training exercises to maintain a strong combined defense posture, such as Freedom Shield and Ulchi Freedom Shield, and enhance the Alliance’s crisis management capabilities and strengthen deterrence.

MODERNIZING ALLIANCE CAPABILITIES

The United States and the ROK are modernizing our capabilities to strengthen the combined defense architecture of the Alliance, empowering us to work together more seamlessly by:

• Enhancing combined abilities to deter and respond to DPRK missiles by upgrading Shared Early Warning Systems and missile defense capabilities against advanced and novel threats.

• Expanding science and technology cooperation through the new Defense Science and Technology Executive Committee (DSTEC) to guide defense innovation and accelerate the incorporation of cutting- edge technologies in areas such as autonomous systems, artificial intelligence, and quantum technologies.

• Deepening industrial collaboration and supply chain resiliency by strengthening and connecting our defense industrial bases through our participation in the Partnership for Indo-Pacific Industrial Resilience (PIPIR) and maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) activities, allowing our forces to field the most modern, interoperable weapons systems.

STRENGTHENING REGIONAL SECURITY COOPERATION

The United States and the ROK resolved to jointly strengthen activities with allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific by:

• Launching a new Regional Cooperation Framework to better coordinate efforts to advance our shared vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific. Areas of focus under this framework include maritime security, multilateral exercises, capacity building, defense industrial cooperation, technical cooperation, and information sharing.

• Deepening U.S.-ROK-Japan trilateral security cooperation through a Trilateral Security Cooperation Framework that institutionalizes high-level dialogues, missile warning data sharing, and an increased scope, scale, and frequency of trilateral multi-domain exercises.

12. North Korea and Russia send political shockwaves with Ukraine war moves

Shockwaves, yes. But there are also opportunities to be exploited. We need to seek them out and execute operations proactively.

North Korea and Russia send political shockwaves with Ukraine war moves

https://www.reuters.com/world/north-korean-foreign-minister-arrives-russian-far-east-heading-moscow-2024-10-29/

By Reuters

October 29, 20244:10 PM EDTUpdated 15 hours ago

Summary

NATO says N.Korean troops may be headed to front lineSouth Korea and Ukraine vow to step up cooperationNorth Korea's foreign minister arrives in Russia for talksKremlin doesn't deny reports of N.Korean troops in Russia

MOSCOW/SEOUL, Oct 29 (Reuters) - North Korea's foreign minister arrived in Russia on Tuesday for talks as the Russia-Ukraine war appeared to take a dangerous new turn, with NATO and South Korea expressing alarm that North Korean troops could soon be joining in on Moscow's side.

U.S. President Joe Biden said Ukraine should strike back against North Korean troops "if they cross into Ukraine."

NATO said on Monday thousands of North Korean troops were moving toward the front line, a development which has prompted Kyiv to call for more weapons and an international plan to keep those troops at bay.

The Pentagon confirmed on Tuesday that some North Korean soldiers are in the Kursk region, a Russian border area where Ukrainian forces staged a major incursion in August and hold hundreds of square kilometres of territory. A couple of thousand more are heading there, it said.

The United States has said any North Korean troops fighting in the war would be "fair game" for Ukrainian attacks and that Washington would not impose any fresh limits on Ukraine's use of U.S. weapons if North Korea entered the fight.

South Korea, which remains technically at war with the nuclear-armed North decades after the 1950-1953 Korean War, also condemned the deployments, with officials in Seoul worried about what Russia may be providing to Pyongyang in return.

North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui arrived in Russia's far east on Tuesday on her way to Moscow, Russian state media said. Russian state news agencies said it was not clear who Choe, making her second visit in six weeks, would meet.

The Kremlin said Russian President Vladimir Putin had no plans to meet her.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said after talks with South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol on Tuesday that the North Korean moves were sending the war into a new phase.

"This war is becoming internationalized, extending beyond two countries," Zelenskiy said on X.

"We agreed to strengthen intelligence and expertise exchange, intensify contacts at all levels, especially the highest, in order to develop an action strategy and countermeasures to address this escalation," Zelenskiy said.

Yoon told Zelenskiy that if North Korea receives aid from Russia and is able to glean military experience and knowledge from its involvement in the war it would pose a "great threat" to South Korea's security, his office said.

South Korea has said it may start supplying weapons to Ukraine if North Korean troops joined Russia's war. Putin has not denied the presence of North Korean troops in the country.

INFANTRY ROLES

What role the North Korean troops may play is unclear.

Item 1 of 3 A woman inspects the damage to a shop after a Russian drone strike in Kyiv, Ukraine October 29. REUTERS/Thomas Peter

[1/3]A woman inspects the damage to a shop after a Russian drone strike in Kyiv, Ukraine October 29. REUTERS/Thomas Peter Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab

The Pentagon said initial indications are that Russia might field them in infantry roles.

"We remain concerned that Russia intends to use these soldiers in combat or to support combat operations against Ukrainian forces in Kursk," Pentagon spokesperson Major General Patrick Ryder told reporters, adding he could not corroborate reports that North Korean troops were in Ukraine itself.

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) think tank said the number of North Korean forces involved "make this more than a symbolic effort."

"But the troops will likely be in support roles and constitute less than 1% of Russia's forces," it said.

"Russia is desperate for additional manpower, and this is one element of Russia's effort to fill the ranks without a second mobilization," it added, noting the presence could grow.

The troops are also likely to play a political role for Russia and North Korea, strengthening their hands in relations with China, which has an uneasy partnership with both countries, and sending a message to Washington and its allies, Western diplomats and analysts said.

"The closer Moscow's ties to Pyongyang, the more leverage it expects over U.S. allies as well as China," Gilbert Rozman, of The Asan Forum, wrote for the U.S.-based 38 North programme.

Moscow needed a partner hostile to the status quo, wary of China but unwilling to antagonize it, and helpful in meeting arms or perhaps labor needs, he said.

A few thousand North Korean troops will not change the course of the war so it may be a Russian attempt to underscore to the United States just how disruptive Moscow can be if it wants, said one diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity.

"Integrating North Korean troops into a very complex war machine is not easy. But using their presence to scare the United States and its allies in Asia is quite simple," the diplomat said.

TROOPS TRAINING

The Ukraine conflict broke out when Russia invaded its neighbor in February 2022 and has since developed into a war of attrition largely fought along front lines in eastern Ukraine, with huge numbers of casualties on both sides.

The Pentagon estimated 10,000 North Korean troops had been deployed to eastern Russia for training, up from an estimate of 3,000 troops last Wednesday.

The military in Russia was trying to teach military terminology to the North Korean soldiers, South Korean lawmakers briefed by the country's spy agency said on Tuesday.

Moscow was also continuing to provide technical support for North Korea's attempts to field a fleet of spy satellites, the lawmakers said.

For months, North Korea has been providing Russia with short-range ballistic missiles, artillery shells, and other weapons, according to intelligence officials in the United States, South Korea, and Ukraine.

The Reuters Daily Briefing newsletter provides all the news you need to start your day. Sign up here.

Reporting by Reuters; Writing by Josh Smith, Mark John and Phil Stewart; Editing by Angus MacSwan, Ros Russell and Daniel Wallis

13. The West did nothing to stop North Korea’s alliance with Russia, and there will be consequences

We cannot keep the Korea problem on the Korean peninsula.

Excerpt:

Yet, fraught as the international situation is, there has been astonishingly little in-depth discussion of foreign policy from either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, and a paucity of substantive questioning from the media. Over the coming weeks, members of the new Axis of Evil may have further unhappy surprises for the democratically distracted West.

The West did nothing to stop North Korea’s alliance with Russia, and there will be consequences

by Joseph Bosco, opinion contributor - 10/29/24 10:00 AM ET

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4957639-russia-north-korea-ukraine-war/

In one form or another, all of America’s major enemies — China, Russia, North Korea and Iran — are intervening in and taking advantage of our election.

North Korea just had its say by directly joining Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; South Korean and Ukrainian officials reported last week that some North Korean personnel, probably military engineers, were killed in Ukraine.

U.S. intelligence then declassified a report that said at least 3,000 North Korean soldiers are undergoing combat training in Russia, a development that U.S officials say could have global implications. Ukrainian intelligence places the number at 12,000.

“It’s effectively the participation of a second state in the war against Ukraine on the side of Russia,” President Volodymyr Zelensky announced to Ukraine’s Parliament.

Though Western intelligence and political leaders were clearly surprised by the deployments, they logically operationalize the Russia-North Korea strategic partnership announced in June. In that agreement, the parties pledged mutual cooperation should either come under “attack” or “armed invasion.”

The document did not specify whether it would apply to retaliatory action taken by a third country in response to aggression perpetrated by either of the parties, such as Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, or Ukraine’s recent responsive incursion into Russia’s Kursk region. But the infusion of North Korean forces in the last few weeks into the Russian-occupied territory of Ukraine, and their possible use in the Ukrainian-held part near Kursk, signifies that Moscow and Pyongyang make no distinction between offense and defense, and are acting in flagrant defiance of international law.

The Russo-North Korean pact, which Kim Jong Un insists on calling an “alliance,” cites Article 51 of the United Nations Charter as somehow validating North Korea’s intervention. But that provision affirms “the inherent right of individual or collective self-defense if an armed attack occurs against a Member of the United Nations.” It authorizes the use of defensive force by the victim of aggression and its allies — not, perversely, further offensive action by the aggressor nation that triggered the conflict in the first place.

Article 51 protects Ukraine and those who help it, not Russia and North Korea. Their invocation the article to justify expanding Russian aggression (and now North Korean aggression) against Ukraine makes a mockery of the U.N. Charter and turns on its head the principal international lesson of World War II. If left unchallenged and unchecked, it increases the chances of World War III.

National security spokesperson and former Adm. John Kirby put the matter in terms of the laws of war. “We recognize the potential danger here,” he said. If these North Korean troops are employed against Ukraine, they will become legitimate military targets.” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin implied the North Korean intervention could have military ramifications beyond the immediate War zone: “If they’re co-belligerents — if their intention is to participate in this war on Russia’s behalf — that is a very, very serious issue. It will have impacts, not only in Europe. It will also impact things in the Indo-Pacific as well.”

That is already happening.

South Korea just announced that, given the enhanced capabilities to attack the South provided by North Korea’s participation in the Ukraine War, Seoul is seriously considering sending weapons to assist the Kyiv government’s self-defense. It is possible, depending on how North Korea reacts to that development, that at some point South Korean soldiers could also be sent to fight the North Koreans there.

Ukraine is already experiencing a reprise of Nazi-like aggression as in World War II; conflict between North and South Korea in Ukraine would also make the besieged country a proxy site for the renewal of the Korean War.

China and Russia have their strategic anti-U.S. partnership, announced in February 2022 by Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin just before the invasion of Ukraine. China and North Korea have had a “lips and teeth” diplomatic and economic partnership for decades. While Iran lacks similar formal arrangements with any of the other members of the new Axis of Evil, it engages in weapons transactions with all of them.

The other three members of the group have all provided Russia with essential weapons, munitions and other material aid, but North Korea is the first so far to provide fighting forces in support of Russia’s aggression. Yet, because of the Biden-Harris administration’s inhibiting fears of escalation, no NATO members have dispatched organized military forces to Ukraine. That may now change.

Kirby said, “We’re going to be talking to allies and partners, including Ukrainians, about what the proper next steps are going to be.”

Given Israel’s widening conflict with Iran and the demands on the West from Russia’s war with Ukraine, which existed before North Korea’s unwelcome intervention, many in the U.S., including some in Congress, may feel that America’s security circuits are already overloaded. That is a dangerous predicament even before considering the looming China threat against Taiwan.

Yet, fraught as the international situation is, there has been astonishingly little in-depth discussion of foreign policy from either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, and a paucity of substantive questioning from the media. Over the coming weeks, members of the new Axis of Evil may have further unhappy surprises for the democratically distracted West.

Joseph Bosco served as China country director for the secretary of Defense from 2005 to 2006 and as Asia-Pacific director of humanitarian assistance and disaster relief from 2009 to 2010. He is a nonresident fellow at the Institute for Corean-American Studies and a member of the advisory board of the Global Taiwan Institute.

14. Russian troops’ frustrations at North Korean fighters caught on intercepted communications

No respect = no trust. No trust = failed military operations.

Russian troops’ frustrations at North Korean fighters caught on intercepted communications

Russian soldiers can be heard using expletives and calling the North Koreans ‘Chinese’ in the audio clips released by Ukrainian intelligence

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/people/article/3284203/russian-troops-frustrations-north-korean-fighters-caught-intercepted-communications?utm_source=flipboard&utm_content=other

Reading Time:

3 minutes

Why you can trust SCMP

Park Chan-kyong

Published: 8:00am, 29 Oct 2024Updated: 3:50pm, 29 Oct 2024

Audio messages intercepted by Ukrainian intelligence have offered a revealing glimpse into the complexities of the Russo-North Korean alliance – and the growing frustration among Russian soldiers regarding the deployment of North Korean troops to fight in Ukraine.

The North Korean deployment has divided analysts. Some argue that operational hurdles, language barriers, and differing military practices will hinder their combat effectiveness. Others, however, believe that historical familiarity between the North Koreans and their Russian counterparts will mitigate these issues.

A recent interception, released by Ukrainian intelligence, captures Russian troops in the Kursk region expressing disbelief over how the North Korean soldiers, dubbed the “K Battalion”, will be commanded and equipped.

The soldiers vent their frustrations, using expletives and referring to the North Koreans dismissively as “the Chinese”. One soldier remarks about a fellow serviceman tasked with welcoming the North Koreans, saying, “He’s just standing there with his eyes wide open”.

Identified as members of Russia’s 810th Separate Marine Brigade, the soldiers voice scepticism about the Kremlin’s logistical plans.

A handout from South Korean intelligence purportedly showing North Korean personnel at a Russian military facility. Photo: AFP

“They’re already here learning with a translator,” a Russian soldier can be heard saying on the intercept. Reports in the Kyiv Post newspaper indicate a strategy of assigning one translator and three Russian personnel for every 30 North Korean troops.

One soldier captured on the audio questions the feasibility of this arrangement: “One translator for 30 people. The only thing I don’t understand is where to get three senior personnel for 30 people.”

Kim Dong-seong, a former North Korean special forces soldier, told This Week in Asia that the shortage of interpreters could complicate direct engagement and “make it challenging for North Koreans to engage closely with Russian forces in shared operations on the battlefield”.

“They would likely prefer to control specific sections of the front independently,” he added.

Intelligence from South Korea suggests that around 10,000 elite North Korean troops are being dispatched to Russia, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reportedly briefed that 12,000 soldiers, organised into two brigades, would soon arrive in Kursk.

North Korea has reportedly sent troops to Russia; Will South Korea give 'lethal' weapons to Kyiv?

Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte confirmed the deployment on Monday. Kim told This Week in Asia that North Korea was likely sending its less experienced troops – often referred to as “rookies” – to the front lines in Ukraine.

Despite their inexperience, these troops are thought to possess a fierce loyalty that might offset their lack of battlefield savvy, a situation likened to a “meat grinder” by Kim.

But he questioned whether the soldiers would adapt effectively to the flat terrain of Kursk, which starkly contrasts with the landscape they are trained to navigate.

“The terrain they’re accustomed to in North Korea, which is largely mountainous, is very different,” he said, adding that North Korean special forces were typically trained for mobility-focused operations over rugged topography.

Former North Korean army officer Kang Ri-hyuk has played down the potential impact of language barriers, noting that Russian is often taught as a first foreign language in North Korean schools.

He expressed confidence in the capabilities of the elite Pokpoong (Storm) Corps. “These troops are exceptionally trained, and their loyalty to [North Korean leader] Kim Jong-un is unwavering,” he said.

Members of the Korean Vietnam War Veterans Association protest in Seoul against the deployment of North Korean troops to Russia. Photo: AP

Kang dismissed the notion that North Korean troops were being sent into battle unprepared. “I don’t believe they’re being used as cannon fodder without adequate training to fight with different weapons and in different conditions,” he said.

Ahn Chan-il, a former North Korean soldier who defected to South Korea in 1979, emphasised the strong resolve of North Korean troops, despite facing challenges such as malnutrition. “North Korean soldiers may lack physical strength, but their resolve to fight for their leader is very strong,” he said.

Now a researcher on North Korean issues, Ahn highlighted the compatibility between North Korean and Russian weaponry, stemming from their historical alliance: “Many weapons and ammunition are interchangeable, so they should face no major issues using Russian equipment.”

North Korean soldiers chosen for overseas missions undergo careful selection, according to Lim Eul-chul, a professor at Kyungnam University in Changwon.

“Even though they may struggle with malnutrition and supply shortages, they are well-trained, thoroughly disciplined, and imbued with pride and loyalty toward their leader,” Lim said.

“I don’t agree with the view that Kim Jong-un is simply sending them as expendable troops for financial gain.”

Park Chan-kyong

Park Chan-kyong is a journalist covering South Korean affairs for the South China Morning Post. He previously worked at the Agence France-Presse's Seoul bureau for 35 years. He studied political science at Korea University and economics at the Yonsei University Graduate School.

15.Peaceful reunification is no longer North Korea’s goal

It has never been the regime's goal.

But we must not be misled by Kim Jong Un's political warfare.

Yes, Kim Jong Un will never acquiesce to peaceful unification on terms favorable to the South, the region, and the international community. But that does not mean we must give up on unification. It is the only solution to the Koera questions (tie.e., the unnatural division of the peninsula).

Kim Jong Un wants us to dismiss unification and in doing so he can pursue what has always been the goal of the Kim family regime: domination of the peninsula.

Why Americans dismiss Korean unification and why they must not

https://www.upi.com/Voices/2024/10/28/korea-korean-unification/2931730123032/

Kim Jong Un: Domination, not peaceful unification

https://www.upi.com/Voices/2024/10/03/Kim-Jong-Un-domination-not-peaceful-unification/9971727969103/

Peaceful reunification is no longer North Korea’s goal

washingtontimes.com · by Joseph R. DeTrani

By - Tuesday, October 29, 2024

OPINION:

North Korea’s enhanced allied relationship with Russia and leader Kim Jong Un’s decision to send troops to aid Russia in its war of aggression in Ukraine could be the prelude to war on the Korean Peninsula.

When North Korea was closely allied with the Soviet Union from 1950 to 1991, the regime in Pyongyang was reckless. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991 and North Korea could no longer rely on Moscow, they changed tack and behaved responsibly. Now, North Korea is allied with Russia and will likely revert to provoking South Korea and inciting war on the Korean Peninsula.

Soviet leader Josef Stalin gave North Korean leader Kim Il Sung permission to invade South Korea in June 1950. An armistice was signed in July 1953 after significant North Korean, South Korean, Chinese and U.S. casualties.

In 1961, the Soviet Union and North Korea signed the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance. In 1963, the Soviets provided North Korea with a research reactor at the Yongbyon Nuclear Research Center and significant missile technology assistance — and the promise of a light-water reactor — until the Soviet Union collapsed in December 1991.

North Korea’s alliance with the Soviet Union emboldened North Korean leader Kim Il Sung, resulting in myriad terrorist acts:

• The January 1968 North Korean commando raid and attempted assassination of South Korean President Park Chung-hee at his residence in the Blue House.

• The October 1983 North Korean commando squad sent to Burma (now Myanmar) to assassinate South Korean President Chun Doo-hwan and his delegation, resulting in the death of 26 South Korean officials, with 46 injured. Mr. Chun had mechanical problems, arriving late to witness the massacre.

• The November 1987 Korean Airlines Flight 858 exploded in midair when two North Korean agents planted a bomb in the overhead bin in the passenger cabin, killing all 115 passengers and crew.

With the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, North Korea lost a key ally and supporter. It was forced to rely solely on China, with whom it had a 1961 Mutual Aid, Cooperation and Friendship Treaty, committing China to provide military assistance if North Korea were attacked.

This treaty is renewed every 20 years — 1981, 2001 and 2021. But it was China that normalized relations with South Korea in 1992 and focused on economic development and stability in the region. Leaders such as Deng Xiaoping no doubt made it clear to North Korea that its past reckless behavior was not in China’s interest.

Indeed, in 1992, North Korea and South Korea signed a denuclearization agreement, committing both nations to refrain from testing, manufacturing, producing, receiving, possessing, storing, deploying or using nuclear weapons. Nuclear energy would be used exclusively for peaceful purposes.

North Korea in the 1990s and 2000s sought a good, normal relationship primarily with the U.S. but also with South Korea and Japan. With the death of Kim Il Sung, his son Kim Jong Il took over and moved forward with the Agreed Framework with the U.S. and the Six-Party Talks hosted by China. Both agreements committed North Korea to complete and verifiable denuclearization in return for economic development assistance and a path to normal relations with the U.S.

The Six-Party Talks ended in 2009 because of North Korea’s efforts to deny nuclear monitors access to suspected highly enriched uranium sites. In March 2010, North Korea used a miniature submarine to sink a South Korean corvette, the Cheonan, killing 46 sailors.

In November 2010, North Korea shelled South Korea’s Yeonpyeong Island at the Northern Limit Line established by the U.N. separating South and North Korea in the West Sea.

There is a pattern with North Korea: When developments are in its favor, it behaves reasonably. When developments are not in its favor, it is hostile.

North Korea is threatening to preemptively use nuclear weapons if it perceives a threat to the leadership or command and control. South Korea and the U.S. are North Korea’s principal enemies, and peaceful reunification is no longer North Korea’s goal, having destroyed all railways and roads connecting North and South Korea. This is while North Korea builds more nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles to deliver these weapons of mass destruction.

North Korea’s new alliance with Russia and their treaty commits each to the defense of the other if attacked. North Korea is now sending troops to aid Russia in its war in Ukraine, in addition to providing artillery shells and ballistic missiles. This is a clear statement from Pyongyang that it has given up on South Korea and the U.S. and are fully in Russia’s camp.

The only country that could persuade Kim Jong Un to stop this escalation is China. So far, China has refrained from helping North Korea, given its tense relationship with the U.S. But it is also in China’s interest to convince Mr. Kim that war on the Korean Peninsula must be prevented.

Chinese leaders Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao did it, responding to President George W. Bush’s requests for assistance with North Korea. The question now is whether Xi Jinping will intercede with North Korea to prevent war on the Korean Peninsula.

• Joseph R. DeTrani is the former director of East Asia operations at the CIA and served as special envoy for the Six-Party Talks with North Korea from 2003 to 2006 and as director of the National Counterproliferation Center. The views expressed here are the author’s and not those of any government agency or department.

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16. Ukraine's surrender hotline is tempting North Koreans to desert, promising they'll be well fed

It is good to see Ukraine not afraid to execute psychological warfare. It is providing us with a laboratory to test PSYOP concepts to see if they will work on the nKPA.

Ukraine's surrender hotline is tempting North Koreans to desert, promising they'll be well fed

https://www.businessinsider.in/international/news/ukraines-surrender-hotline-is-tempting-north-koreans-to-desert-promising-theyll-be-well-fed/articleshow/114693400.cms

Kwan Wei Kevin Tan,Mia Jankowicz

Oct 28 2024 08:13 IST

North Korea, which is ruled by its leader Kim Jong Un, is believed to have sent thousands of troops to aid Russia in its fight against Ukraine. API/Gamma-Rapho via Getty Images

Ukraine is offering comfortable beds and warm meals to North Korea troops who surrender to them.
"You do not need to die senselessly in another country," Ukraine's military intelligence agency said.

Ukraine is enticing Russia-bound North Korean troops with comfortable beds and warm meals in exchange for their surrender.

"To the soldiers of the Korean People's Army: You, who were sent to help the Putin regime, you do not need to die senselessly in another country," Ukraine's military intelligence agency said in an October 23 statement on its "I Want to Live" Telegram chatbot.

The "I Want to Live" project is a service that allows Russian soldiers to surrender by dialing their hotline. Access to the hotline and chatbot was blocked in Russia back in October 2022, though it can still be accessed via VPN.

"Surrender! Ukraine provides you with protection, food, and warmth," the statement said, adding that Russians soldiers who had surrendered were now living in "comfortable barracks" and given "three hot meals a day."

Besides the statement, Ukraine published a Korean-language video showcasing its prisoner-of-war camps as well as the meals served there.

The video, which was also posted on X and YouTube, ended with a phone number and QR code for North Korean soldiers looking to contact the Ukrainian authorities.

Ukraine's defense ministry did not respond to a request for comment from Business Insider sent outside regular business hours.

North Korea is believed to have sent thousands of troops to aid Russia in its fight against Ukraine, per officials from South Korea, Ukraine, and the US.

On Sunday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in an evening address on Telegram that North Korean troops "may appear on the battlefield" any day now.

"Ukraine will be forced to actually fight against North Korea in Europe," Zelenskyy added.

Russia's use of North Korean troops is another indicator that it's relying more on allies to sustain its wartime efforts. Putin, for his part, has allotted 40% of the national budget to defense manufacturing, and signed a pact with Pyongyang that'll open up another source of war supplies and ammunition.

But Ukraine's attempt to encourage North Korean troops to surrender faces distinct hurdles. North Korea experts earlier told Business Insider of the strict measures Pyongyang takes when sending citizens abroad.

Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., an expert in North Korean defense at the Center for International and Strategic Studies, told BI that North Korea's Kim is likely to send only "politically reliable people" to the frontline.

Those sent, Bermudez said, would probably be accompanied by officials from the ruling Workers' Party of Korea who "file reports on everybody."

Bruce W. Bennett, a defense researcher and North Korea specialist at RAND, told BI that the country tries to rein in its overseas citizens with the threat of punishing their extended family back if they defect.

This, Bennett said, is why North Korean diplomats are almost never allowed to bring their whole family with them to their overseas postings.

As such, defectors risk hurting their family if they decide to flee from North Korea, Bermudez told BI.

"North Korea believes in generational punishment," he added.

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

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