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Quotes of the Day:
"People who know little are usually great talkers, while men who know much say little."
- Jean-Jacques Rousseau
"Objects of the most stupendous magnitude, and measure in which the lives and liberties of millions yet unborn are intimately interested, are now before us. We are in the very midst of a revolution the most complete, unexpected and remarkable of any in the history of nations."
- Thomas Paine
“And how we burned in the camps later, thinking: What would things have been like if every Security operative, when he went out at night to make an arrest, had been uncertain whether he would return alive and had to say good-bye to his family? Or if, during periods of mass arrests, as for example in Leningrad, when they arrested a quarter of the entire city, people had not simply sat there in their lairs, paling with terror at every bang of the downstairs door and at every step on the staircase, but had understood they had nothing left to lose and had boldly set up in the downstairs hall an ambush of half a dozen people with axes, hammers, pokers, or whatever else was at hand?... The Organs would very quickly have suffered a shortage of officers and transport and, notwithstanding all of Stalin's thirst, the cursed machine would have ground to a halt! If...if...We didn't love freedom enough. And even more – we had no awareness of the real situation.... We purely and simply deserved everything that happened afterward.
- Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn
1. Readout of the United States-Japan-Republic of Korea Defense Trilateral Call
2. Allies Conduct Naval Defense Exercises Following North Korea Missile Launches
3. US Navy, JMSDF and ROK Navy Conduct BMD Exercise
4. South Korean Defense Sources Express Concerns About Unreliable F-35 Fighters
5. Defense minister meets U.S. Indo-Pacific Command chief over N.K. provocations
6. North Korea Conducts Provocative Missile Launch
7. N.Korean Warplanes Stage Show of Force
8. USFK brings new equipment to THAAD base to complete upgrade program
9. N. Korea prints stamps marking legalization of new nuclear weapon use doctrine
10. Yoon refrains from commenting on possibility of scrapping inter-Korean military agreement
11. S. Korea seeks to allow public access to N. Korean broadcasts to promote mutual understanding: minister
12. A good start for better relations (ROK and Japan)
13. North Korea trapped in an endless end-game
14. Biden administration fears North Korea building up to a new nuclear test, but hampered by lack of intelligence
15. Hyesan shortens market opening hours from early October
16. Designating DPRK-related Sanctions Evaders
1. Readout of the United States-Japan-Republic of Korea Defense Trilateral Call
What enquiring minds want to know is did they discuss trilateral integrated missile defense. The reports look like they are practicing it. An announcement of an agreement to maintain n integrated. missile defense system would send a powerful message to KJU and Xi.
Readout of the United States-Japan-Republic of Korea Defense Trilateral Call
defense.gov
Release
Immediate Release
Oct. 6, 2022 |
Department of Defense spokesperson Lt. Col. Martin Meiners provided the following readout:
U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Ely Ratner, Japan Director General for Defense Policy Masuda Kazuo, and Republic of Korea (ROK) Deputy Minister for National Defense Policy Heo Tae-keun conducted a trilateral call on October 6, 2022, to discuss concrete ways to address the threats posed by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK).
The defense officials strongly condemned the recent ballistic missile launches by the DPRK as violations of United Nations Security Council resolutions and reaffirmed the importance of trilateral security cooperation to address regional security challenges in the Indo-Pacific region. In addition, they committed to support their respective ministers in the next Trilateral Ministerial Meeting (TMM) on a mutually determined future date.
Indo-Pacific partnerships
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The Department of Defense provides the military forces needed to deter war and ensure our nation's security.
defense.gov
2. Allies Conduct Naval Defense Exercises Following North Korea Missile Launches
Deterrence by denial. WIth some potential for punishment thrown in.
Allies Conduct Naval Defense Exercises Following North Korea Missile Launches
defense.gov · by David Vergun
Last night, North Korea conducted another ballistic missile test, launching two short-range missiles. Two days ago, North Korea fired a ballistic missile over Japan.
"The United States strongly condemns this irresponsible act, which violates numerous U.N. Security Council mandates," said Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, who held a press briefing today.
34:18
The U.S. urges North Korea to cease this type of provocative action, he said. Such actions escalate military tensions, destabilize the region and harm efforts at peace and security.
In response to this provocation, the USS Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group, joined by two Japanese navy destroyers and one South Korean destroyer, arrived yesterday in the Sea of Japan to conduct trilateral ballistic missile defense exercises, Ryder said.
"These exercises send a clear message of allied unity between our nations and enhance the interoperability of our collective forces," he said.
"The exercises also demonstrate the deep strength of our trilateral relationship with Japan and the Republic of Korea, which is resolute against those who challenge regional stability," he said.
Sea Ops
Sailors operate on the flight deck of the aircraft carrier, USS Ronald Reagan, in the Sea of Japan, Oct. 5, 2022.
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Defense Exercise
Ships from the U.S., Japan and South Korea conduct a trilateral ballistic missile defense exercise in the Sea of Japan, Oct. 6, 2022.
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Defense Exercise
Ships from the U.S., Japan and South Korea conduct a trilateral ballistic missile defense exercise in the Sea of Japan, Oct. 6, 2022.
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"Moving forward, we will continue to consult closely with our allies and partners and stand ready to respond appropriately to any potential future provocative acts by North Korea. As always, we remain committed to preserving a free and open Indo-Pacific and peace and stability throughout the region," Ryder added.Spotlight: Focus on Indo-Pacific
In other news, Ryder said that after 18 months of thorough work, to include consultations with subject matter, historians and affected installation communities, the Naming Commission completed its analysis and provided Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III with its final report.
After reviewing the report, Austin concurred with all the commission's recommendations, and is committed to implementing them as soon as possible, he said.
Press Briefing
Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder conducts a press briefing at the Pentagon, Oct. 6, 2022.
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Today, Austin directed Defense Department and services leaders to begin implementation immediately following the National Defense Authorization Act's mandated 90-day waiting period, he said.
Austin is grateful for the work of the commission and thanked them for their dedicated efforts and recommendations "that will give proud new names that are rooted in their local communities, and that honor American heroes whose valor, courage and patriotism, exemplify the very best of the U.S. military," he added.
Spotlight: DOD Space Strategy
Separately, Ryder congratulated Marine Corps Col. Nicole Aunapu Mann, who made history as one of a four-member astronaut crew to blast off from Florida yesterday, bound for the International Space Station. Mann, 45, is the first Native American woman to launch into space.
defense.gov · by David Vergun
3. US Navy, JMSDF and ROK Navy Conduct BMD Exercise
Excellent. Let's have permanent integrated missile defense.
US Navy, JMSDF and ROK Navy Conduct BMD Exercise - Naval News
navalnews.com · by Naval News Staff · October 6, 2022
U.S. Indo-Pacific Command press release
Following the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s (DPRK) ballistic missile launch over Japan on Oct. 4 (local time), which was part of a larger series of launches over the past two weeks, Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruiser USS Chancellorsville (CG 62) and Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Benfold (DDG 65), part of the USS Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group, conducted a trilateral ballistic missile defense exercise in the Sea of Japan, Oct. 6 (local time) alongside Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force destroyers JS Chokai (DDG 176) and JS Ashigara (DDG 178), and Republic of Korea Navy destroyer ROKS Sejong the Great (DDG 991).
This exercise enhances the interoperability of our collective forces and demonstrates the strength of the trilateral relationship with our Japan and Republic of Korea (ROK) allies, which is forward-leaning, reflective of our shared values, and resolute against those who challenge regional stability.
Also this week, the United States conducted air exercises with our ROK and Japanese Allies, as well as a joint tactical missile live-fire exercise with the ROK.
The United States, Republic of Korea and Japan strongly condemns the DPRK’s launches, which violate numerous, unanimous mandates of the United Nations Security Council. We urge the DPRK to immediately cease actions that violate U.N. Security Council resolutions, escalate military tensions, destabilize the region, and endanger peace and security.
We remain committed to peace and prosperity through the region in order to secure a free and open Indo-Pacific.
-End-
navalnews.com · by Naval News Staff · October 6, 2022
4. South Korean Defense Sources Express Concerns About Unreliable F-35 Fighters
Uh oh. I have not heard these reports in Korea.
South Korean Defense Sources Express Concerns About Unreliable F-35 Fighters
The worries echo a litany of complaints made by U.S. military officials about the fifth-generation fighter.
thediplomat.com · by A.B. Abrams · October 7, 2022
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The Republic of Korea Air Force (RoKAF), the official name of South Korea’s air force, has faced significant difficulties with its two new squadrons of Lockheed Martin F-35 stealth fighters, 40 of which have been delivered to meet an order placed in 2014 with 20 more currently on order to form a third squadron.
According to air force data obtained by Shin Won-min, a member of the South Korean National Assembly’s National Defense Committee, inspections have found the F-35s suffered from 234 flaws over 18 months from January 2021 to June 2022. These included 172 “non-flying status” (G-NORS) and 62 “cannot perform specific mission status” (F-NORS) cases. The data recorded 117 flightless and 45 mission-specific failures in 2021, and there was little improvement in the first half of 2022, with 55 and 17 failures of these types occurring over six months. The specific mission failure rates are notably more than twice those of South Korea’s Vietnam War era F-4 and F-5 fighters, the former of which is being directly replaced by the F-35.
Regarding the implications of these issues, Shin warned: “The F-35A was introduced with a very large budget to solve the issue of obsolete fighter jets and strengthen combat effectiveness against North Korea. In the case of the escalation of North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats, it cannot be permitted that this core combat force cannot function properly.”
An inspection in June, which revealed issues with avionics and forced an immediate cancellation of flights, came a month after an F-35 was sent to maintenance due to abnormalities in its fire controls. That in turn followed a “belly landing” in January after a fighter’s landing gear refused to open. These were only a few of several recent cases. Such issues have taken South Korea’s F-35s out of service for periods ranging from a few days to several months, and add to existing questions regarding how viable the aircraft would be in a wartime situation when high reliability is vital.
“Although there may be an abnormality in a certain model or a component problem, the F-35A’s situation is particularly serious,” a South Korean military official reported anonymously to local media. An Air Force source commented that it “must take time” before the process of operating and repairing the new fighter class becomes smoother.
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The F-35 is the only Western post-fourth-generation fighter in production. Having been developed under the Joint Strike Fighter program it is optimized for strike and air defense suppression missions, making it potentially ideal for tackling North Korea’s extremely dense and fast-modernizing surface-to-air missile network. The F-35 is effectively South Korea’s only option to ensure technological parity both with neighboring Japan, which is set to become the largest F-35 operator other than the U.S. military, as well as with China, which developed a similarly advanced fifth-generation fighter under the J-20 program and has a second, the FC-31, set to enter service shortly.
Having been developed under the largest weapons program in history, with the cost estimated at over $1.6 trillion, the F-35 has been widely described as “too big to fail” despite the considerable issues that have frequently been raised with its performance by both civilian and military officials.
These issues are far from isolated to South Korea. In April 2021, the U.S. Air Force’s deputy chief of staff for strategy, integration, and requirements, Lt. Gen. Clint Hinote, warned that the current version of the F-35 was highly unlikely to be able to make contributions to future high-end conflicts due to the fighter’s wide-ranging performance issues.
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“It wouldn’t be worth it… every [F-35] fighter that rolls off the line today is a fighter that we wouldn’t even bother putting into these scenarios,” he noted. His assessment supported those recently made in South Korea, and Hinote is not the only one to raise such concerns in the United States, either.
U.S. Marine Corps Captain Dan Grazier highlighted “a host of alarming problems” and “the F-35’s lack of progress in nearly every essential area” to bring it closer to a combat ready state. These issues included continued malfunctions for “most combat-crucial computer systems,” major cybersecurity vulnerabilities, and “so many cracks” requiring “so many repairs and modifications” that it made operating the aircraft far from practical.
In late 2020, acting U.S. Secretary of Defense Christopher Miller had referred to the F-35 as “a piece of…” and to the program as a “monster” created by the Pentagon. More recently, following several dismal reports by the Government Accountability Office on the fighter’s performance, a nearly two-hour hearing on Capitol Hill highlighted its engine issues as a particularly problematic feature.
“You give us an engine and it doesn’t work, well it worked for a little while until it gets some dust around and then it doesn’t work. What the hell? What’s going on here?” House Armed Service Subcommittee on Readiness Chairman Congressman John Garamendi stated at the hearing, which found that engine issues were causing unavailability rates at 600 percent of standard levels for the Air Force.
Such harsh criticisms date back to late Senator John McCain’s tenure as Chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, when among multiple criticisms he stressed that “the F-35 program’s record of performance has been both a scandal and a tragedy with respect to cost, schedule, and performance.”
Sixteen years after its first flight, the number of factory flaws reported has remained relatively consistent, with new flaws continuing to be discovered as old ones are slowly fixed, leaving the figure at approximately 800 as of late 2022.
While there are hopes that the F-35 will improve with time, the rate at which deficiencies have been addressed means it will likely be many more years until it is ready for high intensity operations against a near-peer adversary. The U.S. Air Force has meanwhile indicated it is considering simpler alternatives to allow it to cut planned acquisitions considerably.
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The fighter has nevertheless remained popular on export markets for a number of reasons, including the unique intelligence that being part of an F-35 network can provide since all stealth fighters worldwide are interlinked. Also attractive are the fighter’s potential should it be made to work, its relatively low cost, and the absence of any other NATO-compatible fighter from its generation.
For South Korea, unlike other F-35 clients, the country’s development of an indigenous fifth generation fighter under the KF-21 program provides it with more options to diversify its fleet without returning to placing orders for fourth-generation aircraft. The KF-21, which first flew in July and will enter service before 2030, is expected to be acquired in over twice the numbers of the F-35, forming at least six squadrons.
This contrasts to the U.S. Air Force, which, for a number of reasons including denying Lockheed Martin a monopoly, reverted to acquiring fourth-generation fighters in 2020. The U.S. Air Force ordered F-15EX jets, which, although more expensive and less stealthy than the F-35, are at least much more reliable and fully ready for high intensity combat.
A.B. Abrams
A.B. Abrams is the author of “China and America’s Tech War from AI to 5G: The Struggle to Shape the Future of World Order” and “Immovable Object: North Korea’s 70 Years at War with American Power.” He has published widely on international security and geopolitics with a focus on East Asia, and holds related Master’s degrees from the University of London.
thediplomat.com · by A.B. Abrams · October 7, 2022
5. Defense minister meets U.S. Indo-Pacific Command chief over N.K. provocations
(LEAD) Defense minister meets U.S. Indo-Pacific Command chief over N.K. provocations | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · October 7, 2022
(ATTN: UPDATES with meeting of top commanders in last 3 paras)
SEOUL, Oct. 7 (Yonhap) -- South Korean Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup met with the commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command in Seoul on Friday to discuss North Korea's provocations and the Seoul-Washington alliance, Lee's office said.
Lee and Adm. John Aquilino shared the view that the allies have "strongly" responded to North Korea over Pyongyang's latest ballistic missile tests, according to Seoul's defense ministry.
They also agreed to seek close coordination in bolstering the allies' defense posture, it said
South Korea and the U.S. recently staged joint naval exercises involving a nuclear-powered U.S. aircraft carrier, the USS Ronald Reagan, near the Korean Peninsula in a show of force amid Pyongyang's intensified ballistic missile activities.
North Korea has ratcheted up tensions on the peninsula with a string of weapons tests, including the firing of an intermediate-range ballistic missile over Japan on Tuesday.
Later in the day, Lee presided over a virtual meeting of top military commanders.
Lee stressed the need to demonstrate the "strong" response capabilities of the South Korea-U.S. alliance to send a message to the North that its push to develop nuclear weapons and missiles would only lead Pyongyang to a "difficult" situation, according to the ministry.
He also highlighted the importance of field officers' readiness posture and enlisted troops' mental preparedness while warning against the possibility of surprise tactical provocations by the North.
sooyeon@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · October 7, 2022
6. North Korea Conducts Provocative Missile Launch
But we need a lot more than sanctions. For one, information is an existential threat to the regime.
Although a little older I would add this well: "North Korea’s Ballistic Missile Test: A 6 Step Strategy To Respond," https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/01/north-koreas-ballistic-missile-test-a-6-step-strategy-to-respond/
October 6, 2022 | Flash Brief
https://www.fdd.org/analysis/2022/10/06/north-korea-conducts-provocative-missile-launch/
North Korea Conducts Provocative Missile Launch
Latest Developments
North Korea launched an intermediate-range ballistic missile over Japan on October 3 for the first time in five years. Pyongyang has returned to its robust testing pace of 2017. This latest escalation could signal dictator Kim Jong Un’s intention to carry out further provocations, such as an intercontinental ballistic missile launch or a seventh nuclear test. The United States has called for a UN Security Council meeting, but China and Russia will block any serious actions. The Biden administration should reinvigorate America’s once-robust sanctions on North Korea, whose enforcement has atrophied since 2018.
Expert Analysis
“North Korea’s provocative missile launch highlights that the negotiations-only approach of the Trump and Biden administrations is not working. The Biden administration should increase diplomatic, military, and financial pressure on Pyongyang, including by sanctioning Chinese, Russian, and other individuals, companies, and banks that aid North Korean sanctions evasion.” – Anthony Ruggiero, Senior Director of FDD’s Nonproliferation and Biodefense Program, Former National Security Council (NSC) Director for North Korea (2018–2019), and Former NSC Senior Director for Counterproliferation and Biodefense (2019–2021)
Ignoring North Korea Has Consequences
Washington’s approach to North Korea has ebbed and flowed between robust engagement, severe sanctions, and a laissez-faire attitude. North Korea greeted the Trump administration with an unprecedented pace of missile launches and conducted a nuclear test. President Donald Trump responded with “maximum pressure,” but then embraced summit diplomacy with Kim, and the sanctions pressure that brought Kim to the negotiating table withered. President Joe Biden has continued his predecessor’s approach while also adding the Obama administration’s “strategic patience” policy, which allowed Pyongyang to develop its prohibited programs with little interference.
Pyongyang Responds to Pressure
President Barack Obama acknowledged the error of his policy when he increased sanctions on North Korea at the end of his presidency. Biden has been distracted by other foreign-policy priorities and has stated he is willing to meet with Kim, an offer the North Korean dictator has rejected.
The Biden administration’s North Korea sanctions have been inadequate. Last year, the administration issued only one sanctions package. This year, the administration has levied multiple sets of sanctions against Pyongyang but has proven unable or unwilling to attempt to dismantle sanctions-evasion networks — a hallmark of the U.S. approach from 2016 to early 2018.
Biden Should Use His Robust Sanctions Authorities
Following the latest North Korean missile test, the National Security Council rightly declared that the administration seeks to “limit [North Korea’s] ability to advance its prohibited ballistic missile and weapons of mass destruction programs, including with allies and UN partners.” While Pyongyang is unlikely to denuclearize in the short term, the United States and its allies can make it harder for the Kim regime to advance these programs.
They should start by sanctioning the Russian, Chinese, and other companies, individuals, and banks that aid Pyongyang’s sanctions evasion, using the robust authorities provided by overwhelming bipartisan congressional majorities in 2016, 2017, and 2019. The allies should then target the Kim regime’s sources of revenue, including its sales of coal and exportation of laborers, both of which are prohibited by UN Security Council sanctions.
Meanwhile, the United States and its allies should strengthen their military pressure on and deterrence of Pyongyang. This should include additional U.S.-South Korea-Japan military exercises like the one held last week.
Related Analysis
7. N.Korean Warplanes Stage Show of Force
N.Korean Warplanes Stage Show of Force
english.chosun.com
October 07, 2022 09:45
Twelve North Korean warplanes staged a rare show of force by flying in formation and firing air-to-surface missiles near the inter-Korean border on Thursday afternoon.
The South Korean military responded by scrambling about 30 warplanes. North Korea also fired two short-range ballistic missiles earlier that day.
The North seems to be protesting against joint naval drills by South Korea, the U.S. and Japan, which have been going on since last week.
South Korean F-15K fighter jets taxi on the runway in an undisclosed location on Tuesday. /AP-Yonhap
The Joint Chiefs of Staff here said about 30 South Korean warplanes responded immediately with "overwhelming" air power to the aerial show of force staged by North Korean bombers and fighter jets south of the Pyongyang-Wonsan surveillance line around 2 p.m. Thursday.
According to the JCS, eight North Korean fighter planes and four bombers practiced firing air-to-surface missiles for about an hour as they flew from Koksan to Hwangju in North Hwanghae Province.
North Korean MiG-29 fighter jets take off during a combat flight contest in an undisclosed location on Nov. 16, 2019, in this grab from [North] Korean Central Television.
Meanwhile, President Yoon Suk-yeol discussed with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on the phone how to respond to North Korean nuclear weapons and missiles.
After a meeting of the National Security Council chaired by national security adviser Kim Sung-han, the presidential office pledged to take a hard line on the issue, saying, "North Korea will face a tougher response to its provocations."
U.S. Nuclear Aircraft Carrier Forced Back by N.Korean Missile Launches
S.Korea, U.S. Start Massive Naval Exercise
Korean General Commands Joint Drills with U.S.
S.Korea, U.S. Resume Massive Military Drills
S.Korea, U.S. to Stage Massive Drill Amid Global Instability
USFK Conducts 1st Live-Fire Drill in 3 Years
U.S. Fighter Jets Arrive for Joint Exercises
S.Korean, U.S. Fighter Planes Stage Show of Force Against N.Korea
S.Korea, U.S. Fire Missiles After N.Korean Launches
USFK Launches New Apache Helicopter Squadron
USFK Practice Seizing Underground Nuclear Facility
S.Korea-U.S. War Simulation Exercises Kick off
Top Korean, U.S. Brass Board American Aircraft Carrier
Nuclear-Powered U.S. Aircraft Carrier to Join Drills with S.Korea
S.Korea, U.S. Stage Drills in Warning to N.Korea
S.Korea, U.S. Could Resume Massive Bomber Drills
- Copyright © Chosunilbo & Chosun.com
english.chosun.com
8. USFK brings new equipment to THAAD base to complete upgrade program
In this case I think it is appropriate to use USFK.
Good statement from MND, though it is still treading lightly so as not to upset China.
Excerpts:
Seoul's defense ministry expressed expectation that the upgrade will further strengthen national defense.
"With this upgrade of the THAAD system, the system's defense capabilities will be enhanced to protect South Korean citizens from North Korea's missile threats and further strengthen the capabilities to defend our core assets," it said in a press statement.
The ministry added that the new pieces of equipment will replace the existing ones, which will be transported back to the U.S. The remarks came amid China's opposition to any deployment of additional THAAD interceptors.
"The new equipment does not mean the deployment of an additional THAAD system," the ministry said.
A ministry official cast the upgrade as an example of the United States having delivered on its "extended deterrence" commitment to the defense of South Korea.
(LEAD) USFK brings new equipment to THAAD base to complete upgrade program | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · October 7, 2022
(ATTN: UPDATES with more details in paras 3, 13-14; RECASTS headline; ADDS bylines)
By Song Sang-ho and Chae Yun-hwan
SEOUL, Oct. 7 (Yonhap) -- The U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) has brought in new pieces of equipment to its THAAD missile defense unit in a southern county in a move to complete an upgrade program to enhance the efficiency of its overall anti-missile capabilities, Seoul officials said Friday.
For years, the USFK has been working on a three-stage program, called the Joint Emergent Operational Need (JEON), aimed at integrating the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system and the Patriot Advanced Capability (PAC)-3 Missile Segment Enhancement system into a single defense structure.
With Thursday's delivery of the equipment to the unit in Seongju, 296 kilometers south of Seoul, the program is expected to be complete by the end of this month, according to the officials.
The first stage of the program is to separate launchers from the battery to enable remote control of the launchers. The second is to allow the use of advanced THAAD radar information for the launch of Patriot missiles.
The last stage is to integrate Patriot missiles into the THAAD launchers.
The THAAD system is designed to shoot down hostile missiles at altitudes of 40-150 kilometers while the PAC-3 MSE system is to intercept missiles at altitudes of 40 km and lower. The integration of the two systems is expected to enhance operational flexibility, observers said.
Seoul's defense ministry expressed expectation that the upgrade will further strengthen national defense.
"With this upgrade of the THAAD system, the system's defense capabilities will be enhanced to protect South Korean citizens from North Korea's missile threats and further strengthen the capabilities to defend our core assets," it said in a press statement.
The ministry added that the new pieces of equipment will replace the existing ones, which will be transported back to the U.S. The remarks came amid China's opposition to any deployment of additional THAAD interceptors.
"The new equipment does not mean the deployment of an additional THAAD system," the ministry said.
A ministry official cast the upgrade as an example of the United States having delivered on its "extended deterrence" commitment to the defense of South Korea.
Extended deterrence refers to America's commitment to mobilizing a full range of its military capabilities, including nuclear options to defend its ally.
The THAAD upgrade has proceeded in a low-profile manner as China has opposed the system's emplacement in Korea, claiming the battery undermines its security interests.
The THAAD operation has also faced opposition from local residents that have raised concerns about potential health and environmental risks associated with the system's radar.
The THAAD battery was first installed in Seongju in 2017 to cope with North Korea's missile threats.
yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · October 7, 2022
9. N. Korea prints stamps marking legalization of new nuclear weapon use doctrine
Well that must make it official. The regime puts its stamp on the new law (yes a lame attempt at humor).
Pretty complex looking stamps. I wonder what the collector value will be? Photo at the link: https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20221007007000325?section=nk/nk
N. Korea prints stamps marking legalization of new nuclear weapon use doctrine | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · October 7, 2022
By Yi Wonju
SEOUL, Oct. 7 (Yonhap) -- North Korea on Friday unveiled a new set of postage stamps to commemorate the recent codification of its nuclear weapons policy amid heightened tensions on the peninsula.
The Korea Stamp Corp. published three stamps, one of which features a newspaper article introducing a new law adopted last month that allows the regime to launch an "automatic nuclear strike" if attacked.
The stamp included images of the North's intercontinental ballistic missiles, including the Hwasong-15 and Hwasong-17, and the Hwasong-8 hypersonic missile on a transporter erector launcher, as well as what appears to be a Pukguksong-3 submarine-launched ballistic missile.
The North also released a stamp with a photo of its leader Kim Jong-un delivering a speech in early September at the Supreme People's Assembly meeting, during which he vowed not to give up the country's nuclear weapons and accused the U.S. of seeking the collapse of his regime.
In another stamp, Pyongyang praised the country's strong defense and economy and stressed its determination to achieve the five-year economic development plan.
The North has test-fired a barrage of short-range and intermediate-range ballistic missiles since codifying its right to launch preemptive nuclear strikes last month. The new law on nuclear use publicly stated that leader Kim has "monolithic command" and "all decisive powers concerning nuclear weapons."
julesyi@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 이원주 · October 7, 2022
10. Yoon refrains from commenting on possibility of scrapping inter-Korean military agreement
I am surprised there has not been recent talk of the Comprehensive MIlitary Agreement. But as expected the north did not live up to the agreement and the regime has already in effect scrapped it. This is an easy "I told you so for" critics.
Yoon refrains from commenting on possibility of scrapping inter-Korean military agreement | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · October 7, 2022
SEOUL, Oct. 7 (Yonhap) -- President Yoon Suk-yeol said Friday he would not comment in advance on the possibility of scrapping an inter-Korean military tension reduction agreement in the event North Korea goes ahead with another nuclear test.
Some members of the ruling party have argued the Sept. 19 agreement, signed after a 2018 summit between then President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, should be scrapped amid the North's increased missile testing in recent weeks.
The agreement calls for halting all hostile military activity between the Koreas and includes plans to turn the Demilitarized Zone into a peace zone, devise military guarantees for the activation of cross-border exchanges and establish military confidence-building measures.
"The three countries that are responding to North Korea's nuclear threat are coming up with response plans step by step through their foreign ministries, national security offices and various channels," Yoon told reporters, referring to South Korea, the United States and Japan.
"It's a bit difficult to tell you in advance," he said when asked if he is considering annulling the deal in the event North Korea conducts what would be its seventh nuclear test.
Officials have said North Korea could stage a nuclear test late this month after a key Chinese Communist Party meeting and before the U.S. midterm elections in November, though the regime has been ready since May.
Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup told a parliamentary meeting this week that he will review the effectiveness of the Sept. 19 agreement depending on the intensity of North Korea's provocations, saying it "isn't desirable" for South Korea to abide by the terms when the North is not.
hague@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 이해아 · October 7, 2022
11. S. Korea seeks to allow public access to N. Korean broadcasts to promote mutual understanding: minister
South Korea absolutely needs to do this and then flood the north with the information the Korean people in the north need and deserve. north Korean information is not a threat to South Korea. But information is an existential threat to the Kim family regime and will be one of the greatest sources of pressure on the regime. Much greater than sanctions.
S. Korea seeks to allow public access to N. Korean broadcasts to promote mutual understanding: minister | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · October 7, 2022
By Kim Soo-yeon
SEOUL, Oct. 7 (Yonhap) -- The South Korean government will push for the lifting of a ban on public access to North Korean television and media channels, a top official on inter-Korean relations told lawmakers Friday.
The government will seek to "gradually" open the door for North Korean broadcasts, media and publications in an effort to promote mutual understanding between the two Koreas, Unification Minister Kwon Young-se said in a report for a parliamentary audit session on his ministry's affairs.
"We will first permit ordinary people to access North Korean broadcasts, given that it will be difficult for North Korea to mutually take similar steps," Kwon said. "In the process, (we) will create a national consensus (on the matter) by having consultations with the National Assembly and related agencies and collecting opinions from all walks of life in the society."
Currently, South Korean media outlets can access North Korea's state-controlled broadcasts through satellite TVs. But ordinary people are prohibited from having access to the North's media and TV channels in general.
Kwon also said his ministry will study the possibility of sports exchanges on the occasion of international sports events, including the 19th Asian Games, scheduled to take place in the Chinese city of Hangzhou next year.
The two Koreas have fielded joint sports teams for the Olympics and the Asian Games in the past and marched together under a "unified Korea" flag at the opening ceremonies.
Meanwhile, Kwon said his ministry will continue to drum up international support for its "audacious initiative" aimed at helping Pyongyang improve its economy in return for denuclearization steps.
"We will not passively wait for North Korea's response. Rather, we will use sanctions and pressure to make the North abandon its nuclear development programs and also make efforts to encourage Pyongyang to come back to dialogue," he said.
In August, President Yoon Suk-yeol offered to provide economic incentives for the North as long as the Kim Jong-un regime shows its commitment to denuclearize. But Kim Yo-jong, the powerful sister of the North's leader, immediately rejected the offer as absurd.
Pyongyang has ratcheted up tensions on the Korean Peninsula with a series of missile launches, including the firing of an intermediate-range ballistic missile over Japan on Tuesday.
sooyeon@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · October 7, 2022
12. A good start for better relations (ROK and Japan)
Close but not sufficient.
Excerpt:
Security cooperation between Seoul and Tokyo is needed because Japan serves as a rear base for military reinforcements and logistics support for the USFK and the UN Combined Forces at times of crisis on the Korean Peninsula. After Yoon stressed the importance of protecting people’s lives and safety based on the trilateral security cooperation among South Korea, the U.S. and Japan, Kishida underscored the need for cooperation with Seoul over security issues.
The UN bases are critical to the warfighting capabilities of the ROK/US Combined Forces Command. The UN Command is not a warfighting headquarters. All fighting will be done by the ROK/US Combined FOrces Command. USFK and UN Forces will be "chopped" OPCON and TACON to the ROK/US Combined Forces Command for employment in the defense plans.
Thursday
October 6, 2022
dictionary + A - A
A good start for better relations
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/10/06/opinion/editorials/Yoon-Sukyeol-Kishida-Moon-Jaein/20221006200406833.html
President Yoon Suk-yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida had a telephone conversation on Thursday to discuss pending issues between the two countries. The presidential office said that the leaders first discussed a joint response to North Korea’s recent firing of an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), which flew over the Japanese archipelago into the Pacific, and then discussed other issues too. Earlier, U.S. President Joe Biden and Kishida spoke by phone. Given the diplomatic deadlock under the Moon Jae-in administration, Yoon’s dialogue with Kishida just two weeks after their brief meeting last month in New York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly is a positive sign for a gradual improvement in relations.
The Yoon administration has put top priority on improving the Seoul-Tokyo ties since its start in May. Many areas, including economy and international affairs, require urgent cooperation between the two countries, but the most important is security cooperation after North Korea’s provocations. If North Korean leader Kim Jong-un takes a cue from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threat to use tactical nuclear weapons in the Ukraine war, that can push Northeast Asia into an unprecedented crisis.
Security cooperation between Seoul and Tokyo is needed because Japan serves as a rear base for military reinforcements and logistics support for the USFK and the UN Combined Forces at times of crisis on the Korean Peninsula. After Yoon stressed the importance of protecting people’s lives and safety based on the trilateral security cooperation among South Korea, the U.S. and Japan, Kishida underscored the need for cooperation with Seoul over security issues.
To enable security cooperation between the two countries, they must first recover mutual trust. The Moon administration’s aggressive move to end the General Security of Military Information (Gsomia) should not be repeated this time. If the two governments can consolidate security cooperation gradually, it can help them enhance their relations faster than expected.
On the August 15 Liberation Day and other occasions, Yoon showed the will to improve relations. In a speech at the parliament on Monday, Kishida called Korea an “important country to cooperate with when dealing with diverse issues of the international community.” That’s a meaningful step forward from his earlier address in the Diet in January in which he said he would strongly demand an appropriate response from South Korea.
Both sides still have to tackle the thorny wartime forced labor issue. The administration tries to find reasonable solutions the Japanese government and companies can agree to while respecting the legal rights of the survivors in Korea. We hope the two leaders put an end to the deep-rooted conflict and build their future-oriented relations.
13. North Korea trapped in an endless end-game
Some of the most important statements on north Korea;
North Korea organizes its policies under four domains – military, economic, political and diplomatic – said Go Myong-hyun, a North Korea watcher at Seoul’s Asan Institute think tank. But one is dominant.
“The military sets the pace for policy in all other domains, so all other policies derive from this domain,” Go said. “It is not measured in months – it is measured in years.”
...
Hence, the massive prioritization of arms acquisitions.
“The state is very capable at squeezing resources out of their society and economy,” Pinkston said. “They see this as necessary in a menacing world that is ‘out to get’ North Korea.”
Go believes that Pyongyang may try to leverage military strength to extract economic concessions from Japan and South Korea. But Pinkston cautions against any likelihood of denuclearization.
“From North Korea’s perspective, you can never have enough power,” he said. “Trading weapons for some kind of security assurance contradicts their world view.”
This turns the acquisition of an advanced armory into an endless end game – one that does not aid their civil economy.
...
“North Korea has put all their eggs in the nuclear basket. They did not diversity their national strategy – there is no way out,” Go said. “If it fails, the only Plan B is the division of the world into authoritarian and liberal blocs, which is a potential development.”
But any such global bifurcation cannot be counted upon, Go stressed: “It is only a prospect.”
This is why we can say the Korean people in the north are suffering because of the deliberate policy decisions by Kim Jong Un.
But my view remains as I have long written:
The root of all problems in Korea is the existence of the most evil mafia- like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that has the objective of dominating the Korean Peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.
The only way we are going to see an end to the nuclear program and military threats as well as the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the north by the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime is through achievement of unification and the establishment of a free and unified Korea that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government based on individual liberty, rule of law, and human rights as determined by the Korean people. A free and unified Korea or in short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK).
The Yoon and Biden administrations have an opportunity for a new approach to the Korean security challenge. The Alliance way ahead is an integrated deterrence strategy as part of the broader strategic competition that is taking place in the region. There is a need for a Korean “Plan B” strategy that rests on the foundation of combined ROK/U.S. defensive capabilities and includes political warfare, aggressive diplomacy, sanctions, cyber operations, and information and influence activities, with a public goal of denuclearization but ultimately the objective must be to solve the “Korea question” (e.g., the unnatural division of the peninsula) with the understanding that denuclearization of the north and an end to human rights abuses and crimes against humanity will only happen when the Korea question is resolved that leads to a free and unified Korea, otherwise known as a United Republic of Korea (UROK).
North Korea trapped in an endless end-game
Kim Jong Un’s fortress state has endless stamina for arms and arms-test races but its WMD-led strategy is ultimately a dead end
asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · October 7, 2022
SEOUL – Japanese and South Korean forces resumed naval exercises today with the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier strike group in the Sea of Japan – exercises moves that are certain to furrow already angry brows in Pyongyang.
The trilateral drills are just the latest knight’s move in a high-speed cycle of action and reaction, response and retaliation, that has elevated tensions across the region in recent days. It is a cycle that looks to be self-perpetrating.
At dawn on Thursday, North Korea had test-fired two short-range ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan, in what state media called a response to prior South Korea-US drills in the region.
On Wednesday, South Korean and US forces had conducted aerial and missile drills, and announced the redeployment of the USS Ronald Reagan carrier strike group to the area. Those drills, and that redeployment announcment, followed North Korea’s test-firing of an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), which flew through space over Japan on Tuesday.
Tuesday’s North Korean IRBM test, in turn, was seen as a response to drills conducted a week earlier by the Japanese and South Korean navies, in concert with the US carrier strike group which has today been conducting anti-missile drills with its two allies.
And so on and so forth, ad infinitum.
Despite their impressive flex of military muscle, South Korea, Japan and the US have few levers to pull on Kim Jong Un, the third generation of his family to head what is a virtual fortress state.
UN Security Council resolutions and sanctions have failed to halt North Korea’s build-out of weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Making bad matters worse, the prior unity in the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has collapsed.
In May, and once again Wednesday, the UNSC failed to reach an agreement over North Korea’s missile tests. Riven by the war in Ukraine and China-US decoupling, the UNSC going forward looks set to be ever more ineffectual.
Moreover, given North Korea’s isolation, there is minimal economic leverage that the US and its allies can applied. And with Pyongyang nuclear-capable since 2006, military action is off the table.
But while this situation may frustrate politicians, diplomats, generals and wonks in Japan, South Korea and the US, their competitor is also in a cul de sac.
Though it plays its one card in the game of nuclear poker with great skill, Pyongyang suffers from both a weak hand and the limitation of the game’s contours.
North Korea went critical in 2006 and showcased a missile capable of reaching the US mainland in 2017. But the urge to up-arm remains. With its national destiny set on a single path – the endless acquisition of ever-more powerful weapons, that suck up ever-more national resources – it is caught in its own mousetrap.
In terms of breaking its international isolation, expanding its economy, acquiring civil technologies and improving its citizens’ quality of life, there is no apparent “Plan B.”
The only possibility that offers Pyongyang a way forward – that the world will bisect into a North American/European-led liberal democratic bloc versus a Chinese-Russian-led authoritarian bloc – cannot be a strategy; it is far beyond the state’s control.
Meantime, today’s drills showcase an irony – that Pyongyang may be contributing to an outcome it greatly fears.
Throughout 2022, a confluence of factors – North Korean belligerence, growing Chinese military power and conservative administrations synching in both Seoul and Tokyo – is driving a long-term Washington goal: Upgraded Japan-South Korean-US military ties.
A warlord with his warriors: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un takes part in the First Workshop of Korean People’s Army Commanders and Political Officers in Pyongyang. Photo: KCNA VIA KNS
The race is on
Thursday morning’s test-firing of two ballistic missiles marked Pyongyang’s sixth missile test in two weeks. Amid the Ukraine war’s actual missile war, this missile test war has struggled to grab global headlines, but Pyongyang’s hefting of an IRBM over Japan did make the world sit up and take new notice.
It also compelled Seoul, Tokyo and Washington, with other like-minded states, to call a meeting of the UNSC – a meeting North Korea’s Foreign Ministry condemned. Moreover, the IRBM test sparked a South Korean-US military reaction.
In a show of force, South Korean and US air forces detonated JDAM bunker-busting munitions on uninhabited islets in the Yellow Sea and fired missiles onto targets in the Sea of Japan.
However, South Korea’s retaliation left its public shaken and its defense officials red-faced. A home-grown South Korean missile veered off-course and detonated inside a military base near the northeastern city of Gangneung late Tuesday night. There were no casualties.
But these are tiny moves. A far bigger arms race is underway across Northeast Asia. China is muscling up in multiple areas – most recently expanding its nuclear force and launching its third heavy aircraft carrier.
Japan is working up two helicopter carriers that are under conversion to F35 carriers, expanding its stealth wing and mulling a “second strike” missile capability.
South Korea is upgrading its domestic submarines and ballistic missiles while beefing up its stealth fighters as it contemplates following Japan down the light-carrier route.
North Korea’s armory is necessarily limited by the paltry size of its economy compared with others in Northeast Asia. However, although its conventional forces lack carriers and stealth jets, its core deterrent – nuclear warheads and missile delivery systems – are hefty enough to grant it a seat at the table.
That seat needs to be maintained with constant saber-rattling, which explains – following the 2019 evaporation of North Korea-US, and collaterally, North Korean-South Korean negotiations – its extensive testing schedule. It is a schedule that has made 2022 the busiest year ever for the state’s missile sector.
Not all of these launches are responses to moves by regional competitors; 2022’s heavy launch schedule predated joint South Korea-US military drills.
With Pyongyang having announced at a party congress in 2021 a vast new armory, including hypersonic and submarine-launched missiles, and tactical and super-large nuclear weapons, it needs to test technologies, systems and manpower.
The last two especially need to conform to the new “first use” doctrine Pyongyang announced in September.
Pedestrians watch a screen displaying news reporting of North Korea’s launch of a ballistic missile in Tokyo, Japan, October 4, 2022. Photo: EPA-EFE / Kimimasa Mayama
Big bang preparations
Pyongyangologists are currently wondering when North Korea will conduct its seventh nuclear test. Satellite images have, since early this year, shown what appear to be preparations for a detonation at the country’s underground test site. Some expect the big bang after China’s upcoming party congress, which kicks off on October 16.
But while North Korea’s missile and nuclear tests may appear to signal national virility, they mask a wider national impotence, experts say.
North Korea organizes its policies under four domains – military, economic, political and diplomatic – said Go Myong-hyun, a North Korea watcher at Seoul’s Asan Institute think tank. But one is dominant.
“The military sets the pace for policy in all other domains, so all other policies derive from this domain,” Go said. “It is not measured in months – it is measured in years.”
This makes the acquisition of ever-more advanced weaponry the foremost national priority. That priority is based on regime mindset.
“The way they view this is, they see survival through strength and power, and you can never have enough power,” said Daniel Pinkston, a Seoul-resident North Korean watcher with Troy University. “We think in terms of opportunity costs, but the mindset in North Korea is different – they don’t think that way.”
Hence, the massive prioritization of arms acquisitions.
“The state is very capable at squeezing resources out of their society and economy,” Pinkston said. “They see this as necessary in a menacing world that is ‘out to get’ North Korea.”
Go believes that Pyongyang may try to leverage military strength to extract economic concessions from Japan and South Korea. But Pinkston cautions against any likelihood of denuclearization.
“From North Korea’s perspective, you can never have enough power,” he said. “Trading weapons for some kind of security assurance contradicts their world view.”
This turns the acquisition of an advanced armory into an endless end game – one that does not aid their civil economy.
“They live in this echo chamber that reconfirms their prior beliefs, it reinforces itself,” Pinkston, who reads North Korean state media material in Korean, insisted. “But what are you going to do with a nuclear weapon? You can’t eat plutonium.”
Actual nuclear use would be “suicide” for such a small state, Pinkston opined. North Korea lacks strategic depth, meaning a single nuclear-armed US B52 bomber or submarine could obliterate the nation.
And just as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine invigorated his personal bugbear, North Korea’s actions are generating regional blowback.
“Putin was paranoid about NATO coming after him, but in the past year he has done more to strengthen NATO unity than anyone,” said Pinkston. “It’s the same with North Korea and China – international security cooperation is moving forward.”
South Korean and American flags fly next to each other at Yongin, South Korea, August 23, 2016. Photo: Courtesy Ken Scar / US Army / Handout
He cited recent missile defense drills off Hawaii with Japanese, South Korean and US units, as well as the recent – and likely upcoming – trilateral naval drills in the Sea of Japan.
Yet, there could feasibly be a way for North Korea to acquire allies and embed itself into a community of nations.
“North Korea has put all their eggs in the nuclear basket. They did not diversity their national strategy – there is no way out,” Go said. “If it fails, the only Plan B is the division of the world into authoritarian and liberal blocs, which is a potential development.”
But any such global bifurcation cannot be counted upon, Go stressed: “It is only a prospect.”
Follow this writer on Twitter @ASalmonSeoul
asiatimes.com · by Andrew Salmon · October 7, 2022
14. Biden administration fears North Korea building up to a new nuclear test, but hampered by lack of intelligence
There is no need to fear a nuclear test. And saying so plays right into Kim Jong Un's hands.
We need to focus on what really threatens him - information and the Korean people in the north. And we need to focus on the pursuit of a free and unified Korea and should not be afraid to say so because that is the solution to the Korean question and the security problem on the Korean peninsula.
Human rights upfront, information and influence activities and the pursuit of a free and unified Korea.
Biden administration fears North Korea building up to a new nuclear test, but hampered by lack of intelligence | CNN Politics
CNN · by Kevin Liptak,Katie Bo Lillis,Phil Mattingly,Kylie Atwood · October 6, 2022
CNN —
A lack of hard intelligence inside North Korea is curtailing the United States’ ability to determine Kim Jong Un’s intentions as the hermit kingdom fires a barrage of powerful missile launches, according to senior administration officials.
The recent tests have caused administration officials to grow concerned that Kim is set to oversee his nation’s seventh nuclear test.
So far, President Joe Biden has responded to the historic level of provocation by sending a US aircraft carrier to the region. The US and South Korea performed live-fire missile tests of their own and, in an urgently arranged telephone call with Japan’s prime minister, Biden vowed to coordinate on a “longer-term response” to the increasingly belligerent North.
White House officials have declined to detail any analysis or assessment that sheds light on why there has been a rapid increase in escalatory action, citing an inability to talk publicly about classified intelligence. But two senior US officials familiar with the matter acknowledged a central issue in divining the dictator’s motives is a lack of hard intelligence altogether.
“We have quite a good picture on the state of North Korean conventional and missile capabilities. What’s much harder is the intentions component, where, of course, collection is a bigger problem,” said Chris Johnstone, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a former director for East Asia on the National Security Council under Biden.
“Since so much of what North Korea does is driven by the leader himself, you really have to get inside his head, and that’s a hard intelligence problem.”
North Korea has long been isolated and largely shuttered from the rest of the world, a reality that has become even more acute in recent years due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The North lacks the widespread use of technology that not only facilitates economic and societal advances, but also provides critical windows and opportunities to glean information for the intelligence services of the US and its allies.
That leaves the White House without the type of information that could help predict when precisely a test may occur or allow for greater insights into Kim’s thinking as Biden works to calibrate an approach that avoids escalation.
“It’s difficult to know what is inside his mind and how he makes his decisions,” John Kirby, the strategic communications coordinator for the National Security Council, told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour. “Our ability to divine intelligence out of Pyongyang is fairly limited. So, it’s hard to know what’s prompting this. But what we do know is he’s continuing to try and improve his program, his capabilities.”
The intelligence community “knows a fair bit about his inner circle, a fair bit about how decisions are made,” Johnstone said. “But at the end of the day, it really is him. And when the circle is so small – and they don’t leave the country – it’s a pretty hard target.”
The latest missile launches mark the 24th time that North Korea has conducted missile tests this year, the highest annual tally since Kim took power in 2011.
Sanctions applied by the past three administration have done little to stop Kim’s march toward a viable nuclear weapon, even as they have left the country deeply isolated and many of its people impoverished. Diplomacy has similarly failed to yield much progress in halting a weapons program that North Korea says it will never abandon.
The Biden administration’s attempts to directly engage Pyongyang – delivered through a variety of channels, both direct and indirect – have been met with silence, according to officials. While the White House is confident its messages seeking diplomacy without preconditions “anytime, anyplace” have been received by Kim, he has yet to respond.
“We remain prepared to engage in serious and sustained diplomacy,” a US official said. “It is unfortunate that the DPRK has not responded to our outreach.”
Bracing for another nuclear test
Another underground nuclear test – potentially timed near November’s midterm elections – would amount to an attention-grabbing move that US officials have been bracing for over the past several months, beginning in the Spring when intelligence showed new activity at one of the country’s nuclear sites around the time of Biden’s first presidential visit to Asia.
White House aides said they were prepared to respond, including through adjustments to the US military posture in the region and the deployment of strategic assets. Yet the test didn’t come during Biden’s trip, underscoring the limits of US intelligence in predicting exactly when or why North Korea may test its advanced weapons.
“Anytime people start speculating on what North Korea might or might not do, they tend to have their expectations confounded one way or another,” national security adviser Jake Sullivan said at the time.
US officials and outside analysts anticipate the US isn’t likely to get much warning of a nuclear test. US military and intelligence agencies assess North Korea could be ready to resume underground nuclear testing at any moment, largely based on satellite imagery showing above-ground preparations at its Punggye-ri test site appear to be complete.
The country’s rainy season is now over, opening up the roads to the site. What’s not clear is whether North Korea has placed nuclear material in any of the underground tunnels at the site.
“The country is dried out the test site looks really well rebuilt to my eye. It’s really at this point probably a political choice for them,” said Jeffrey Lewis, a weapons expert and professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies. “I think when they are technically ready and politically ready, we’ve got all the warning we’re gonna get.”
Tests help Kim refine his weapons
Officials believe the missile and nuclear tests serve a practical purpose, beyond simply sending a message to the US and its allies in the region, which allow the North to further refine its systems as it works toward the ultimate goal of a nuclear-tipped missile that can reach the US mainland. Testing ever-more-powerful weapons also enhances Kim’s stature inside North Korea.
“What concerns us is whatever happens in these launches – how far they go and whether they succeed or fail – he learns. And he is able to improve his ballistic missile capabilities with every subsequent launch. So that’s of concern to us,” Kirby said.
Lewis cautioned against reading too much into individual ballistic missile tests. The primary motivation for North Korea, he said, is technical development – “especially the short-range ones where I think they’re no longer testing the missiles, they’re testing the crews.”
Other analysts believe the spate of missile tests is better understood as a response to Kim’s domestic woes.
“North Korea has had a very difficult period during Covid, essentially shutting off the country entirely, including to China. The food situation isn’t great,” Johnstone said. “The external enemy is part of what he uses to sustain his position.”
Still, determining precisely why North Korea is testing missiles at any particular moment has proved an enduring challenge for US administrations stretching back decades. For Biden and his top national security aides, deciphering North Korea’s intentions as it accelerates its weapons testing has proved difficult and administration officials are candid that previous efforts to assign motivation to Pyongyang’s actions have later been proved wrong.
“The North Koreans almost always have reasons for what they do. And our track record of understanding those ahead of time is not always so great,” one US official familiar with North Korea policy said.
A new strategy
Biden and his team have scoffed at the prospect of staging a high-profile meeting with Kim akin to the three summits former President Donald Trump convened with the dictator. Instead, they have said a meeting between the two leaders would come only after extensive preparatory diplomacy between officials on both sides and with an express purpose.
At the same time, Biden also rejected the “strategic patience” approach adopted by his onetime boss, former President Barack Obama, seeking instead a phased approach in which North Korea gives up parts of its program in exchange for sanctions relief.
Biden administration officials quietly acknowledge that their North Korea policy is not expected to trigger progress on the intractable nuclear challenge, administration sources said. But they also entered office expecting North Korea was not going to engage diplomatically quickly due to a tumultuous few years of back and forth with the US under Trump and the effect of Covid.
Some officials are now beginning to consider how the Biden administration could approach the distinct foreign policy challenge in the second half of Biden’s term, sources said, though neither the President nor his senior-most aides have indicated a desire to make the issue a top priority.
“Our position on diplomacy and dialogue has not changed,” said State Department deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel when asked if the Biden administration would consider re-evaluating their North Korea policy given the recent missile tests.
If there is one silver lining to Pyongyang’s recent provocations and the threat of a possible nuclear test, Johnstone said, it is that the common threat has helped the United States more smoothly navigate the historically contentious relationship between Japan and South Korea. And it could accelerate a debate in Japan about doubling its defense spending to 2% of its GDP, he said.
Asked what policy levers the Biden administration has at its disposal to try to curtail Pyongyang’s nuclear program, Lewis was succinct: “None.”
“When North Korea did not have nuclear weapons, there were interesting choices to be made about how to entice and or pressure them to not build some,” Lewis said. “Convincing North Korea to give up nuclear weapons that it already has is a totally different game.”
China’s uncertain role
As the US has moved in what one official called “a clear and calibrated” way with its critical allies in the region over the course of the last several days, one central player remains largely unseen: China.
With US-China tensions reaching new heights over the last several months, substantive communications between key US officials and their Chinese counterparts have remained largely on ice, according to several senior US officials. Any Chinese absence as US officials grapple with Kim’s motives creates a particularly acute challenge given the country’s role as a central interlocutor between the US and its allies and North Korea.
Sullivan directly addressed the issue during a four-and-a-half hour meeting with China’s top diplomat Yang Jiechi in June, officials said. He pointed to North Korea as a primary area where the countries could cooperate, even amid the strained relations.
Sullivan “made very clear that we believe this is an area where the United States and China should be able to work together,” a senior administration official said.
But just this week China demonstrated a lack of desire to work with the US on curbing North Korea’s provocations. China’s representative at the UN cast the recent missile launches as a result of US aggressions in the region during a UN Security Council meeting.
White House officials believe the timing of a seventh nuclear test could also be dictated by political machinations inside China. Multiple officials noted they were closely watching the period immediately after the conclusion of the Communist Party’s congress later this month.
One official noted it was unlikely Kim would seek create a significant geopolitical crisis moment as Chinese President Xi Jinping moves toward his third term.
CNN’s Kaitlan Collins contributed to this report.
CNN · by Kevin Liptak,Katie Bo Lillis,Phil Mattingly,Kylie Atwood · October 6, 2022
15. Hyesan shortens market opening hours from early October
The regime fears the markets because they provide resilience to the Korean people in the north.
The COVID paradox - using the fear of a COVID outbreak to justify further oppression of the Korean people.
Hyesan shortens market opening hours from early October
The measure suggests that restrictions on the public continue, ostensibly as part of attempts by the government to prevent a rise in coronavirus cases
By Lee Chae Un - 2022.10.07 5:30pm
dailynk.com
FILE PHOTO: A photo of Hyesan taken by a Daily NK source in the country. (Daily NK)
Despite North Korea recently declaring an end to the COVID-19 pandemic, Hyesan authorities shortened market opening hours starting Oct. 1, Daily NK has learned.
According to a Daily NK source in Yanggang Province on Thursday, operating hours at Hyesan’s markets were shortened by two hours starting on Oct. 1. Markets previously opened from 2 PM to 7 PM; now they are open only from 2 PM to 5 PM.
While announcing the change, the authorities explained that the changing market hours reflect changes in nighttime curfew hours for the winter season.
In an August 2020 announcement by the Ministry of Social Security in regions on the China-North Korea border, North Korea set curfew hours from 8 PM to 5 AM in the summer season (April to September) and 6 PM to 7 AM in the winter season (October to March).
Throughout the pandemic, North Korean authorities have been restricting movement in the border region, citing the need to stop COVID-19. Market opening times have also been adjusted to correspond with the summer and winter curfews.
North Korea declared “victory” in its war on COVID-19 during a meeting to review national emergency quarantine efforts in August, transitioning the nation from the “maximum emergency epidemic prevention system” to a “normal quarantine system.”
However, restrictions on the public continue, ostensibly as part of attempts by the government to prevent a rise in coronavirus cases.
Given this situation, some people in North Korea are claiming that the government’s declared end of COVID-19 was simply a means to create a favorable environment for the restart of trade, with little connection to the daily lives of the people or returning life to normal.
“Every day, they say we could achieve victory in the fight against the malicious virus thanks to the superior leadership of the Supreme Leader [North Korean leader Kim Jong Un],” said the source. “So people thought the authorities would keep the market hours as they were. But contrary to their expectations, the government shortened the market hours going into October. People cannot hide their frustration about this.”
In fact, the source said some people are complaining that if COVID-19 has disappeared like the government has claimed, the authorities should let people do what they need to do to make a living.
“October is when people have to prepare for winter by getting firewood and vegetables to make kimchi, but since they can use the market for only three hours a day, complaints are inevitable,” he said. “You have to ask whether continuing to restrict activities using quarantine efforts as an excuse while ignoring the lives of the people is really helping them.”
Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
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16. Designating DPRK-related Sanctions Evaders
Good step forward, But we need to include an aggressive information and influence component to really pressure Kim Jong Un.
Designating DPRK-related Sanctions Evaders - United States Department of State
state.gov · by Antony J. Blinken, Secretary of State
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Designating DPRK-related Sanctions Evaders
Press Statement
October 7, 2022
The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) continues its unprecedented pace, scale, and scope of ballistic missile launches this year. This year alone, it has launched 41 ballistic missiles. Six of these were intercontinental ballistic missiles.
Today, the United States is imposing sanctions on two individuals and three entities connected to the delivery of refined petroleum to the DPRK, an action which directly supports the development of DPRK weapons programs and its military.
The U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assests Control (OFAC) is designating the entity New Eastern Shipping Co Ltd., along with the individuals Kwek Kee Seng and Chen Shih Huan, for having participated in the transfer or delivery of refined petroleum products to the DPRK. OFAC is also designating two entities who are owned or controlled by these individuals: Anfsar Trading (S) Pte. Ltd. and Swanseas Port Services Pte. Ltd.
UN Security Council resolutions prohibit ship-to-ship transfers of any cargo to or from DPRK-flagged vessels and limit the DPRK’s import of refined petroleum products to 500,000 barrels per year starting in 2018 — a cap that the DPRK has broken every year since it was imposed. Any imports of refined petroleum to the DPRK under the cap are illicit if not reported to the UN 1718 Committee.
By designating these entities and individuals, the United States is sending a clear message that we will continue to take actions against those who support the development and sustainment of the DPRK’s military and weapons arsenal.
For more information on today’s actions, please see the Department of the Treasury’s press release .
state.gov · by Antony J. Blinken, Secretary of State
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