Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

"The most important scientific revolutions all include, as their only common feature, the dethronement of human arrogance from one pedestal after another of previous convictions about our centrality in the cosmos."

- Stephen Jay Gould

"The mind of the bigot is like the pupil of the eye; the more light you pour upon it, the more it will contract."

- Oliver Wendell Holmes

"An education isn't how much you have committed to memory, or even how much you know. It's being able to differentiate between what you do know and what you don't. It's knowing where to go to find out what you need to know; and it's knowing how to use the information you get."

- William Feather

1. 5 things to know about the Hamas militant group's unprecedented attack on Israel

2. After Attack, Israel Wrestles With Question: How Could This Happen?

3. Israel Has Declared War on Gaza. Now What?

4. Israel’s defense failures may change strategy toward Hamas and Gaza.

5. Opinion This is Israel’s 9/11. The consequences will be dangerous — and unforeseeable. by Max Boot

6. What’s behind the violence in Israel and Gaza? Here’s what to know.

7. Biden’s Middle East policies blamed after surprise attack on Israel

8. 'Knee-jerk surge': Oil experts predict market impact of Israel-Hamas conflict

9. House lawmakers discuss how to address intelligence briefings on Israel without speaker

10. What we know about the latest violence between Israel and Gaza

11. Army special operations cuts not expected to affect Green Berets

12. Reconsider Shutting Down the Navy’s Only Special Operations Support Squadron

13. Congress considers ‘very severe rollback’ of military’s DEI programs

14. China Believes UK Spies Tracked Submarine With The Help Of An Apple Watch: Report

15. Comparing and Contrasting JSOC and USASOC in the Conduct of Irregular Warfare Activities

16. Indian Americans now largest Asian American group in U.S.

17. How Beijing is waging secret war against West in bid to overthrow world order

18. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 7, 2023

19. US Army Set For Elon Musk's SpaceX 'Starshield' Trials; SFAB To Become 1st Unit To Adopt The Systems

20. 7Salutes: Army Special Forces officer pens play on experience serving in the military

21. France vetoes American takeover of two 'sensitive' nuclear suppliers

22. Hamas Has Crossed The Rubicon: What Now? – OpEd

23. A ‘Pearl Harbor’ moment: Why didn’t Israel’s sophisticated border security stop Saturday’s attack?

24. Proposed USASOC Cuts: A Threat to Global Security - SOAA

25. Moving on from Milley: CQ Brown brings ‘buttoned down’ persona to Joint Chiefs

1. 5 things to know about the Hamas militant group's unprecedented attack on Israel

Will there be parallels to the Tet Offensive in 1968? Will Israel decimate Hamas but the attack will have huge political effects on Israel? And what happens after Hama is decisively defeated like the Viet Cong were? Is Hama being used by some other country? What force/country will exploit this to try to bring down Israel? (rhetorical questions)

The five:

ISRAEL CAUGHT UNAWARE

UNPRECEDENTED INFILTRATION

A DANGEROUS GAMBLE BY HAMAS

ISRAEL IN CRISIS

A PERILOUS CYCLE

5 things to know about the Hamas militant group's unprecedented attack on Israel

AP · October 7, 2023

JERUSALEM (AP) — Without warning on Saturday, Gaza’s militant Hamas rulers attacked Israel by air, land and sea. Millions of Israelis in the country’s south awoke to the searing sound of incoming rockets and the inevitable thud of impact. Air raid sirens wailed as far north as Tel Aviv. Israel’s anti-rocket interceptors thundered in Jerusalem.

And in an unprecedented escalation, armed Hamas fighters blew up parts of Israel’s highly fortified separation fence and strode into Israeli communities along the Gaza frontier, terrorizing residents and trading fire with Israeli soldiers.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right allies were scrambling to respond to the rapidly changing events. Within just nine hours, some 40 Israelis and nearly 200 Palestinians were confirmed dead, with the numbers expected to rise.

Here are some key takeaways from the multi-pronged attack that has suddenly plunged Israel into war.

ISRAEL CAUGHT UNAWARE

The shock that Israelis felt on Saturday morning — on Simchat Torah, one of the most joyous days of the Jewish calendar — recalled the surprise of the the 1973 Mideast war. Practically 50 years earlier to the day, a full-scale Egyptian-Syrian attack on a Jewish holiday quickly turned into a disaster for an unprepared Israeli military.

Then, as now, Israelis had assumed that their intelligence services would be able to alert the army to any major attack or invasion well in advance. That colossal failure still haunts the legacy of then-Prime Minister Golda Meir and helped bring down the lengthy rule of the once-dominant Labor Party.

Now, the question of how the militants were able to stage such a huge and coordinated attack — which has already killed more Israelis than any single assault since the second Palestinian uprising two decades ago — without triggering Israeli intelligence concerns has already presented a major challenge to Netanyahu’s ultranationalist government.

The government’s supporters had expected Netanyahu and powerful hard-line ministers with a history of anti-Arab rhetoric like National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir to take a particularly belligerent stance against the Palestinians and respond more forcefully to threats from militants in Gaza.

As political analysts lambast Netanyahu over the failure, and the casualty count climbs, Netanyahu risks losing control of both his government and the country.

UNPRECEDENTED INFILTRATION

Hamas claimed its fighters had taken several Israelis captive in the enclave, releasing gruesome videos of militants dragging bloodied soldiers across the ground and standing over dead bodies, some of them stripped to their underwear. It said that senior Israeli military officers were among the captives.

The videos could not immediately be verified but matched geographic features of the area. Fears that Israelis had been kidnapped evoked the 2006 capture of soldier Gilad Shalit, whom Hamas-linked militants seized in a cross-border raid. Hamas held Shalit for five years until he was exchanged for over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.

Palestinians transport a captured Israeli civilian, center, from Kibbutz Kfar Azza into the Gaza Strip on Saturday, Oct. 7, 2023. The militant Hamas rulers of the Gaza Strip carried out an unprecedented, multi-front attack on Israel at daybreak Saturday, firing thousands of rockets as dozens of Hamas fighters infiltrated the heavily fortified border in several locations by air, land, and sea and catching the country off-guard on a major holiday. (AP Photo/Hatem Ali)

In a dramatic escalation unseen in decades, Hamas also sent paragliders flying into Israel, the Israeli military said. The brazen attack recalled a famous assault in the late 1980s when Palestinian militants crossed from Lebanon into northern Israel on hang-gliders and killed six Israeli soldiers.

The Israeli army belatedly confirmed that soldiers and civilians had been taken hostage in Gaza, but refused to provide further details.

A DANGEROUS GAMBLE BY HAMAS

Hamas officials cited long-simmering sources of tension between Israel and the Palestinians, including the dispute around the sensitive Al-Aqsa Mosque compound, which is is sacred to both Muslims and Jews and remains at the emotional heart of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Competing claims over the site, known to Jews as the Temple Mount, have spilled into violence before, including a bloody 11-day war between Israel and Hamas in 2021.

In recent years, Israeli religious nationalists — such as National Security Minister Ben-Gvir — have increased their visits to the compound. Last week, during the Jewish harvest festival of Sukkot, hundreds of ultra-Orthodox Jews and Israeli activists visited the site, prompting condemnation from Hamas and accusations that Jews were praying there in violation of the status quo agreement.

Israeli soldiers deploy in Sderot, Israel, on Saturday, Oct. 7, 2023. Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip infiltrated Saturday into southern Israel and fired thousands of rockets into the country while Israel began striking targets in Gaza in response. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)

Hamas statements have also cited the expansion of Jewish settlements on lands that the Palestinians claim for a future state and Ben-Gvir’s efforts to toughen restrictions on Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails.

More recently, tensions have escalated with violent Palestinian protests along the Gaza frontier. In negotiations with Qatar, Egypt and the United Nations, Hamas has pushed for Israeli concessions that could loosen the 17-year blockade on the enclave and help halt a worsening financial crisis that has sharpened public criticism of its rule.

Some political analysts have linked Hamas’ attack to ongoing U.S.-brokered talks on normalization of ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia. So far, reports of possible concessions to Palestinians in the negotiations have involved Palestinians in the occupied West Bank, not Gaza.

“We have always said that normalization will not achieve security, stability, or calm,” Bassem Naim, a senior Hamas official, told the AP.

ISRAEL IN CRISIS

The eruption of violence comes at a difficult time for Israel, which is facing the biggest protests in its history over Netanyahu’s proposal to weaken the Supreme Court while he is on trial for corruption.

The protest movement, which accuses Netanyahu of making a power grab, has bitterly divided Israeli society and unleashed turmoil within the Israeli military. Hundreds of reservists have threatened to stop volunteering to report for duty in protest at the judicial overhaul.

Reservists are the backbone of the country’s army, and protests within the army ranks have raised concerns about the military’s cohesion, operational readiness and power of deterrence as it confronts threats on multiple fronts. Netanyahu on Saturday called up “an extensive mobilization of reserve forces.”

A PERILOUS CYCLE

Israel and Hamas have fought four wars and exchanged fire numerous times since the Islamic militant group seized control of Gaza from forces loyal to the Palestinian Authority in 2007. Cease-fires have stopped major fighting in past rounds of conflict but have always proven shaky.

Each agreement in the past has offered a period of calm, but the deeper, underlying issues of the conflict are rarely addressed and set the stage for the next round of airstrikes and rockets.

With its increased leverage in this round, Hamas is likely to push harder for concessions on key issues, such as easing the blockade and winning the release of prisoners held by Israel.

AP · October 7, 2023

2. After Attack, Israel Wrestles With Question: How Could This Happen?

As we studied the 67 and 73 wars, this will be studied for years to come in PME institutions.

Photos and a graphic at the link.

After Attack, Israel Wrestles With Question: How Could This Happen?

Coordinated Palestinian assault punctures the country’s aura of invincibility

By Dion NissenbaumFollow

and Anat Peled

Updated Oct. 7, 2023 8:14 pm ET

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/after-attack-israel-wrestles-with-question-how-could-this-happen-aa6d539a

TEL AVIV—As explosions rang out and bullets flew over Tamir Erez’s home in Mefalsim near the Gaza Strip border, he said he kept asking himself, “Where is the Israeli military?” He fled town with his children holding their heads down so they couldn’t see the bodies of dead Israelis killed by Palestinian militants.

“It will take a long time for us to recover from this day,” Erez said.

Israel’s failure to anticipate an attack Saturday that left hundreds of soldiers and civilians dead and militants rampaging through villages punctured a sense of invincibility built on its vaunted military and intelligence apparatus. It left the world questioning what went wrong and Israel’s leaders facing pressure to retaliate with overwhelming force.

Hamas’s attack also caught the Biden administration by surprise, several senior U.S. civilian and military officials said.

“I’m confident we had no intel,” said retired Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery, who said he was in Israel earlier this year, including touring defenses at one of the kibbutzim in southern Israel that was overrun by Hamas.

Montgomery said a senior U.S. military officer in the region got on a plane and returned to the U.S. in recent days, implying that wouldn’t have happened if Washington knew an attack was coming.

Palestinians celebrate by a destroyed Israeli tank at the Gaza Strip fence. PHOTO: HASSAN ESLAIAH/ASSOCIATED PRESS

An Israeli soldier stands by the bodies of Israelis killed by Palestinian militants who entered the southern Israeli city of Sderot from the Gaza Strip. PHOTO: TSAFRIR ABAYOV/ASSOCIATED PRESS

The assault came as Israel faces its most difficult series of threats in the decades since what remains the country’s greatest security failure, the Yom Kippur War, the surprise attack launched 50 years ago this week by Egyptian and Syrian forces.

Iran has provided unprecedented coordination among the forces of several militant groups, including Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, and stoked deadly conflict in the West Bank, putting Israel at risk on three fronts.

Using rockets, paragliders, motorcycles, pickup trucks, and boats, Hamas militants from the Gaza Strip launched a coordinated attack that showed an unexpected level of sophistication.

Israeli forces appeared to be caught completely by surprise as Hamas militants in Gaza used bulldozers to tear down the security fence with Israel and streamed into the country.

How Israel’s Iron Dome works

Interception

The missile destroys the incoming rocket by exploding near it.

Launcher

Each has 20 interceptor missiles

with an in-built radar seeker

Mobile control Unit

Analyses trajectory, estimates impact point and commands launch of interceptor missile

Radar

Identifies rocket shell

Source: Rafael Advanced Defense Systems

“Clearly this was a well-planned operation that didn’t just emerge overnight and it’s surprising it was not detected by Israel or any of its security partners,” said Brian Katulis, vice president of policy at the Middle East Institute think tank in Washington. “It’s hard to think of a security failure of this magnitude in Israel’s recent history.”

Israeli security leaders had played down the threat from Hamas in recent months, as the group abstained from conflicts started by its smaller ally in Gaza, Palestinian Islamic Jihad. There was a sense that Israel, with its Iron Dome air defense systems, had rendered ineffective Gaza’s main threat of short-range rockets.

Last month, the Israeli military confidently characterized Gaza as being in a state of “stable instability,” suggesting that the dangers posed by Hamas militants were largely contained.

Recent Israeli intelligence assessments of Hamas were that the militant group had shifted its focus to trying to stoke violence in the West Bank and that it was looking to avoid launching major attacks from Gaza in an effort to avoid the kinds of punishing Israeli military responses that have devastated the isolated area in the past.

In many respects, Saturday’s surprise attack was a low-tech assault that relied more on the element of surprise than advanced weaponry. Palestinian militants armed with machine guns, rocket propelled grenades and pistols were able to stream into Israeli towns and military bases with surprising ease.

“It’s unbelievable,” said Meir Elran, a researcher at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies. “Everybody was talking about Hamas being quiet and being stable. This whole structural concept is shattered just in front of our eyes in a very devastating ugly manner.”

Cars burn after a rocket fired from the Gaza Strip hit an area in southern Israel on Saturday. PHOTO: TSAFRIR ABAYOV/ASSOCIATED PRESS

Israeli police evacuate a family from a site in southern Israel hit by a rocket fired from the Gaza Strip. PHOTO: TSAFRIR ABAYOV/ASSOCIATED PRESS

Israel and Hamas have been embroiled in a decadeslong conflict in the Gaza Strip, which has been the epicenter of repeated battles since the Jewish nation was established in 1948. Egypt held control of the Gaza Strip until 1967, when Israel seized the narrow strip along the Mediterranean Sea during the Six Day War.

Thousands of Israeli settlers lived in the Gaza Strip until 2005, when Israel withdrew its soldiers and civilians and ceded control to the fragile Palestinian Authority. Hamas militants toppled the Palestinian Authority two years later and has retained control of the Gaza Strip ever since.

Hamas has used a network of tunnels under the Egypt-Gaza border to smuggle in weapons and supplies used to build thousands of rockets and a small number of drones that they have fired at Israel over the years. But Israel’s air defenses have been able to largely neutralize the threat.

No one has a reliable count of how many rockets Palestinian militants have at their disposal. Jonathan Schanzer, senior vice president of research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank in Washington, said militants have about 15,000 rockets in Gaza.

Israeli troops advance against Egyptian forces near Rafah, Gaza Strip, at the start of the Six Day War on June 5, 1967. PHOTO: MICHA HAN/GPO/GETTY IMAGES

Over the years, the Israeli military has carried out a series of airstrikes targeting Hamas tunnels dug under the Gaza-Israel border, successfully thwarting previous attempts by Palestinian militants to carry out sneak attacks.

Schanzer described Saturday’s attack as a remarkable military and intelligence failure by Israel.

“The Israelis have done a huge amount to deter tunnel building and other means of penetrating the barrier, then we see this,” he said. “It certainly appears that they have just gone through the front door.”

Schanzer said Saturday’s attack demonstrated surprising strategic and tactical success by Hamas that may have been aided by support from Iran.

“It’s very hard to imagine something like this being executed without assistance from the likes of Iran,” he said. “We have never seen anything by this group that would indicate an ability or even a desire to strike at the heart of Israel in the way that it has today.”

Israelis across the country were in shock after Hamas launched a massive surprise attack inside Israeli territory and appeared to take control of several cities and villages along the border. Many were left asking how one of the best armies in the world could be so unprepared for such a dangerous scenario.

Capture of Civilians, Soldiers After Hamas Attack on Israel

Israel Has Declared War on Gaza. Now What?

By Steven Erlanger

Reporting from Berlin

Oct. 7, 2023

The New York Times · by Steven Erlanger · October 7, 2023

News analysis

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is being pressured to launch a full-scale invasion that Israeli leaders have been scrupulously avoiding since 2005.

A building destroyed by Israeli strikes in Gaza City on Saturday.Credit...Samar Abu Elouf for The New York Times

Oct. 7, 2023, 12:26 p.m. ET

Nearly 50 years to the day after the Yom Kippur war of 1973, Israel has again been taken by surprise by a sudden attack, a startling reminder that stability in the Middle East remains a bloody mirage.

Unlike the last series of clashes with Palestinian forces in Gaza over the last three years, this appears to be a full-scale conflict mounted by Hamas and its allies, with rocket barrages and incursions into Israel proper, and with Israelis killed and captured.

The psychological impact on Israelis has been compared to the shock of Sept. 11 in America. So after the Israeli military repels the initial Palestinian attack, the question of what to do next will loom large. There are few good options for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has declared war and is being pressured into a major military response.

Given that dozens of Israelis have died so far and more have been taken hostage by Hamas, an Israeli invasion of Gaza — and even a temporary reoccupation of the territory, something that successive Israeli governments have tried hard to avoid — cannot be ruled out.

As Mr. Netanyahu told Israelis in declaring war: “We will bring the fight to them with a might and scale that the enemy has not yet known,” adding that the Palestinian groups would pay a heavy price.

But a major war could have unforeseen consequences. It would be likely to produce sizable Palestinian casualties — civilians as well as fighters — disrupting the diplomatic efforts of President Biden and Mr. Netanyahu to bring about a Saudi recognition of Israel in return for defense guarantees from the United States.

There would also be pressure on Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militant group that controls southern Lebanon, to open up a second front in northern Israel, as it did in 2006 after an Israeli soldier was captured and taken prisoner in Gaza.

Iran, a sworn enemy of Israel, is an important backer of Hamas as well as Hezbollah and has supplied both groups with weapons and intelligence.

The aftermath of an infiltration by Hamas in Sderot, Israel, on Saturday. Dozens of Israelis have died.Credit...Ammar Awad/Reuters

The conflict will unite Israel behind its government, at least for a while, with the opposition canceling its planned demonstrations against Mr. Netanyahu’s proposed judicial changes and obeying calls for reservists to muster. It will give Mr. Netanyahu “full political cover to do what he wants,” said Natan Sachs, director of the Center for Middle East Policy of the Brookings Institution.

Nevertheless, he added, Mr. Netanyahu has in the past rejected calls to send thousands of troops into Gaza to try to destroy armed Palestinian groups like Hamas, given the cost and the inevitable question of what happens the day after.

“But the psychological impact of this for Israel is similar to 9/11,” he said. “So the calculus about cost could be quite different this time.”

The question will always be what happens afterward, said Mark Heller, a senior researcher at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies. Nearly every year there have been limited Israeli military operations in the occupied territories, but they have not provided any solutions.

“There is a lot of heavy pressure already for a large-scale incursion, to ‘finish with Hamas,’ but I don’t think it will solve anything in the longer run,” Mr. Heller said.

But Carl Bildt, the former Swedish prime minister and foreign minister, said a major Israeli assault on Gaza was almost inevitable, particularly if Israeli soldiers were taken hostage. “If Hamas has taken Israeli soldiers as prisoners and taken them to Gaza, a full-scale Israeli operation into Gaza looks highly likely,” he said on X. “Another war.” The same presumably would hold true for Israeli citizens.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, speaking at the United Nations General Assembly in New York last month, said Saturday that Israel is “at war” with Hamas.Credit...Maansi Srivastava/The New York Times

Israel and Mr. Netanyahu have been wary of sending ground forces into Gaza. Even in 2002, when Ariel Sharon was prime minister and Israeli forces crushed a Palestinian uprising in the West Bank, the government chose to avoid sending significant extra forces into Gaza, where it then had Israeli settlements.

Israeli unilaterally withdrew its soldiers and citizens from Gaza in 2005, while retaining effective control of large parts of the occupied West Bank. The failure of that withdrawal to secure any sort of lasting peace agreement has left Gaza a kind of orphan, largely cut off from other Palestinians in the West Bank and almost entirely isolated by both Israel and Egypt, which control Gaza’s borders and its seacoast. Palestinians often call Gaza “an open-air prison.”

After the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and the conflict of 2006, an internal struggle between the Fatah movement of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and the more radical, Islamist Hamas movement ended with Hamas taking control of the territory in 2007, prompting Israel to try to isolate Gaza even further.

Even in an extended conflict of 2008 and 2009, Israeli forces entered Gaza and its population centers but chose not to move too deeply into the territory or to reoccupy it, with a cease-fire brokered by Egypt after three weeks of warfare.

Successive Israeli governments insist that after the 2005 withdrawal, it no longer has responsibility for Gaza. But given Israel’s control over the borders and its overwhelming military advantage, many groups like B’Tselem, which monitors human rights in the occupied territories, argue that Israel retains significant legal responsibilities and obligations for Gaza under international humanitarian law.

Israeli troops withdrawing from the Gaza Strip in 2005.

While Hamas has not been clear about why it chose to attack now, it may be a response to growing Israeli ties to the Arab world, in particular to Saudi Arabia, which has been negotiating a putative defense treaty with the United States in return for normalizing relations with Israel, potentially to the neglect of the Palestinians.

That is the view of Amberin Zaman, an analyst for Al-Monitor, a Washington-based news website that covers the Middle East. “Israel’s response to today’s attacks will likely be of a scale that will set back U.S. efforts for Saudi- Israeli normalization, if not torpedo them altogether,” she said in a message on X, formerly Twitter.

Saudi Arabia has not recognized Israel since it was founded in 1948 and until now had signaled that it would not even consider normalizing relations until Israel agreed to allow the creation of a Palestinian state.

But recently even the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has gone public with affirmations that some sort of deal with Israel seemed plausible. In an interview with Fox News last month, he said that talk of normalization was “for the first time, real.”

That will now be in question, depending on how long this conflict lasts and with what level of dead and wounded.

But Mr. Sachs of Brookings says that the goals of Hamas may be simpler — to take hostages in order to free Palestinian prisoners from both the West Bank and Gaza in Israeli jails.

Aaron David Miller, a former American diplomat dealing with the Mideast, said that Hamas has been frustrated with the amounts of money coming into Gaza from Arab countries and restrictions on workers getting permission to work in Israel. “In many ways this is a prestige strike, to remind the Israelis that we’re here and can hurt you in ways you can’t anticipate,” he said.

Israel, shocked, will now have to deal with the results of what Mr. Miller, now with the Carnegie Endowment, called its “overconfidence and complacency and unwillingness to imagine that Hamas could launch a cross-border attack like this.”

The ramifications of the war and its aftermath will be “far-reaching and take a long time to manifest,” Mr. Sachs said. There will be commissions of inquiry into the military and intelligence agencies “and the political echelon won’t escape blame, either.”

But first, as Mr. Heller noted, comes the war. “And these things tend to get out of control,” he said.

Steven Erlanger is The Times’s chief diplomatic correspondent in Europe, based in Berlin. He previously reported from Brussels, London, Paris, Jerusalem, Berlin, Prague, Belgrade, Washington, Moscow and Bangkok. More about Steven Erlanger

The New York Times · by Steven Erlanger · October 7, 2023

4. Israel’s defense failures may change strategy toward Hamas and Gaza.

Did the Israeli TV show, "Fauda," on Netflix give us a false sense of security about Israeli intelligence operations? Will the upcoming release of the next season be delayed?

Israel’s defense failures may change strategy toward Hamas and Gaza.

By Ronen Bergman

Reporting from Tel Aviv

Oct. 7, 2023

The New York Times · by Ronen Bergman · October 8, 2023

LIVE See more updates: Israel-Gaza Conflict

Oct. 7, 2023, 8:30 p.m. ET

The broad attack by Palestinian militants, which Hamas viewed as mostly successful, revealed some significant failures.

Aweke Zena looking out the window of his family’s apartment in Ashkelon, Israel, after an attack on Saturday.Credit...Tamir Kalifa for The New York Times

Oct. 7, 2023Updated 8:02 p.m. ET

Hamas’s attack on Saturday took Israeli intelligence officials by surprise, particularly the methods the militants used to enter and leave Israel, according to a senior defense official familiar with the information collected about the group.

The broad attack, mostly successful from Hamas’s point of view, revealed some significant failures by the Israeli defense establishment. It also may change Israel’s overall strategic approach to Hamas and the Gaza Strip, said the official, who asked not to identified when discussing security matters.

And that could have a far-reaching effect on the entire Middle East.

Until now, Israel has contained Hamas and Gaza with a strategy that hinged on an intelligence network that would warn against Hamas’s moves, and on the power of the Israeli army to repel a ground invasion by Hamas. In the Hamas attack on Saturday, these two safeguards failed.

Israel is traditionally perceived as the strongest intelligence power in the region, with extensive coverage of the Gaza Strip. And in recent months, Israeli intelligence did repeatedly warn that a military conflict could flare up because Iran and affiliated militias have perceived Israel as weakened by the nation’s profound divisions over the judicial overhaul being pursued by the ultra-right governing coalition of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to four senior defense officials.

Still, while Israeli intelligence collected some indications that Hamas was planning a major operation, they were far from forming a clear picture, one of the officials added.

Israel, the official said, did not pick up on the elaborate preparations that were likely needed for the 250 Hamas militants tasked to lead the assault, and target military bases, cities and kibbutzes.

American officials, too, said that both Israel and the United States had known a Hamas attack at some point was possible, or even likely. But they said there was no specific tactical warning of the strikes on Saturday, no sign that would have allowed Israel to take specific measures.

Many questioned why Israel and the United States were blindsided. Mick Mulroy, a former C.I.A. officer and senior Pentagon official, said the complexity of the attack by Hamas indicates it would have required much preparation.

“There were likely indications of the buildup of munitions and the preparation of the assault force, and there was cyber activity in Israel prior to the assault,” Mr. Mulroy said.

Since the Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip in 2005, Hamas has transformed from a militant organization to the leader of a territory with many characteristics of a state. The group has started rounds of fighting with Israel every few years, which usually have not lasted more than a week. These attacks include firing rockets on Israeli cities and trying to kidnap or kill Israelis. But nothing has been as extensive as the Saturday attack.

For its part, Israel in past years has responded with its enormous firepower, usually from aircraft, against targets in Gaza and has tried to assassinate the organization’s senior officials. But it has launched very limited ground maneuvers.

The Israeli strategy has been to contain the fighting against militants in the Gaza Strip, as long as Israel’s fatalities were not too high, which might oblige it to engage in an all-out ground invasion.

Four successive Israeli prime ministers decided that the price of invading and occupying the Gaza Strip to crush Hamas rule would be too high, in the lives of Israeli soldiers and Palestinians, and that the toll of governing millions of residents there would be too costly.

Israel continued to act this way even though it knew that both Hamas and Palestinian Jihad have received funding, training, weapons and advanced combat and intelligence gear from Iran, three officials said, and that the militant groups were becoming stronger.

The surprise attack on Israel came almost 50 years to the day to the start of the Yom Kippur War, which began with a surprise attack by Syrian tank columns and Egyptian brigades. That made it even more surprising that Israel was not more on guard.

The defense official said this was likely not a coincidence but a careful choice by Hamas to pick a date perceived as a national trauma. The intelligence surprise, as well as Hamas’s ability to cross the border and cause heavy losses, is strikingly reminiscent of the 1973 war.

Israel has invested enormous resources in getting intelligence about Hamas, gathering significant information about most of its initiatives and targeting many of its leaders.

But Saturday was not the first time that Hamas has managed to surprise Israeli intelligence. In June 2006 when a Hamas squad entered Israel, attacked a group of soldiers, killed two and kidnapped the soldier Gilad Shalit, Israeli intelligence did not know about the attack, or where Shalit was being held for more than five years. Israel eventually paid the highest price it had ever paid to secure a POW.

That deal brought intense controversy within Israel, which could flare again with reports that dozens of Israeli soldiers and civilians had been captured.

The Israeli Defense Forces, even though they were aware of the possibility of a ground invasion by Hamas to seize military bases and civilians along the border, were slow to reach the scenes of violence. Many residents were forced to defend themselves.

The videos Hamas took during the operation and which were immediately distributed on social media presented the Israeli defense establishment as weak, surprised and humiliated.

Israel is now likely to respond with force, and possibly with a ground invasion of Gaza, in the belief that Hamas did not leave it any choice, a senior defense official said.

One key question, which will determine how the crisis unfolds, is whether Hezbollah, the Lebanese military group, stays on the sidelines or if it activates its fighters to attack Israel. If Hezbollah becomes directly involved the fighting it is likely to become some of the most intense in the region in years.

Julian Barnes in Washington contributed.

Ronen Bergman is a staff writer for The New York Times Magazine, based in Tel Aviv. His latest book is “Rise and Kill First: The Secret History of Israel’s Targeted Assassinations,” published by Random House. More about Ronen Bergman

The New York Times · by Ronen Bergman · October 8, 2023

5. Opinion This is Israel’s 9/11. The consequences will be dangerous — and unforeseeable. by Max Boot

Opinion This is Israel’s 9/11. The consequences will be dangerous — and unforeseeable.

Columnist

October 7, 2023 at 6:17 p.m. EDT

The Washington Post · by Max Boot · October 7, 2023

I had been planning to write this week about the negotiations between President Biden, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia to normalize Israel-Saudi ties in return for a U.S.-Saudi defense treaty. Analysts I talked to were cautiously optimistic that this megadeal might be concluded by early next year. Despite the continuing civil war in Syria, the region felt calm. U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan remarked just last week that “the Middle East region is quieter today than it has been in two decades now.”

So much for that. Saturday’s surprise attack by Hamas fighters into Israel is a grim reminder that, in the Middle East, war-fighting usually takes precedence over peacemaking. It is hard to imagine the Saudi-Israeli peace talks making much progress as Israel reels from the worst surprise attack it has suffered since the 1973 Yom Kippur War — and as it mobilizes for what is likely to be its largest ground assault into the Gaza Strip since Operation Cast Lead in 2008-2009. Indeed, while we don’t know for sure why Hamas chose to strike exactly now, this could well be part of a larger attempt by Iran and its proxies — including Hamas — to prevent a historic reconciliation between Jerusalem and Riyadh.

It is shocking enough to see internet footage of the Hamas attack as an American witnessing events from afar. The shock must be many times greater for Israelis who have to process the calamity that has befallen their country. This is Israel’s 9/11, and, just as the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks rippled out across the world from Afghanistan to Iraq, so, too, will the 10/7 attacks ripple out in ways that are as dangerous as they are unpredictable.

Israel has gotten accustomed to the threat posed by Hamas rockets — and there was indeed a large-scale rocket attack from the Gaza Strip on Saturday. But there is no precedent for the massive ground assault that Hamas also mounted. Hamas’s fighters managed to penetrate Israeli border posts and the border fence enclosing Gaza, rampaging through surrounding Israeli communities, massacring innocent civilians and seizing hostages. They even managed to penetrate Israeli military bases and seize Israeli tanks and other armored vehicles. Hamas fighters are committing terrible war crimes while carrying out a daring terrorist operation that has shaken Israel’s sense of security. Israel will no doubt strike back with an overwhelming military response.

While Israel could never make peace with Hamas, a movement dedicated to the destruction of the Jewish state, it had learned to live with a terrorist organization in control of the Gaza Strip as a lesser evil — compared to a renewed Israeli occupation, an even more extremist group such as al-Qaeda in charge, or Libya-style chaos. Israel had mounted numerous military operations against Hamas since its takeover in 2007, two years after Israel pulled out of Gaza. But these were mostly from the air. And even when Israeli troops were deployed, they never stayed for long.

As a 2017 Rand study noted: “Israel’s grand strategy became ‘mowing the grass’ — accepting its inability to permanently solve the problem and instead repeatedly targeting leadership of Palestinian militant organizations to keep violence manageable. Dealing with Hamas in Gaza puts Israel in a strategic quandary: It needs to exert enough force to deter Hamas from attacking but not so much that it topples the regime. As one Israeli defense analyst put it, ‘We want to break their bones without putting them in the hospital.’”

Now the pressure will be irresistible for Netanyahu, who on Saturday declared that “we are at war,” to order the complete destruction of Hamas. That could lead Israeli troops into extremely difficult fighting in the dense urban terrain of Gaza City against a shadowy foe that can hide among the civilian population. Indeed, Hamas may be trying to draw Israel into a quagmire similar to the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982, knowing that Israeli forces are much more vulnerable when they are fighting on foot than when they are dropping bombs from the sky.

The Israel Defense Forces remain the strongest military force in the Middle East, and it will ultimately prevail. But even a tactical victory would leave Israel facing the question: “Now what?” Most Israelis have no desire for a long-term occupation of the Gaza Strip, one that will inevitably lead to further Israeli casualties and accusations that their troops are committing war crimes. But they are running out of alternatives.

The only certainty is that the Hamas attack will make life worse for Palestinians. Gaza is already one of the poorest places on Earth, and its misery has only been exacerbated by the Israeli-Egyptian blockade designed to prevent Hamas from amassing too much military power. The day before the attacks, The Post ran a heart-rending story about how merchants in Gaza are so poor they cannot afford trucks and have to rely on donkeys — only to see the supply of donkeys from Israel dry up.

Hamas did not attack because of the miserable conditions in Gaza. Its leaders are insulated from deprivation and motivated by religious and nationalist fanaticism. But the terrible conditions do make it easy for Hamas to recruit fighters from among young men so poor and desperate that they have no better alternative than to become “martyrs.”

Ultimately, Israelis and Palestinians have to recognize that they have no alternative but to live side by side in peace. Responsible Israelis — who are largely missing from Netanyahu’s far-right cabinet — know that Palestinians’ lives have to improve to prevent more eruptions of violence in the future.

An Israeli-Saudi normalization deal, assuming it preserves the possibility of a two-state solution, could make an important contribution to Israel’s long-term security. But the prospect of peace talks advancing is far more remote today than it was yesterday. For now, war and suffering are the order of the day, with no clear end in sight.

The Washington Post · by Max Boot · October 7, 2023

6. What’s behind the violence in Israel and Gaza? Here’s what to know.

The revolution.

It might be worth perusing the Casebook on Insurgency and Revolutionary Warfare Vol. II- 1962-2009

Specifically Section II, "Revolution Based on Identity or Ethnic Issues," Chapter 7, the Palestinian Liberation Organization 1962-2009. pages 277-306.

https://www.soc.mil/ARIS/books/pdf/CasebookV2S.pdf

(This casebook provides summaries of twenty-three insurgencies and revolutions that have occurred since 1962, with the goal of introducing the reader to modern-style irregular and unconventional warfareAlthough its intent is not to provide in-depth analyses, the book provides sufficient background material and descriptions of the revolutions to allow comparisons and insights across a broad spectrum of cases.)

Excerpts from the article below:

Hamas, which rules the Gaza Strip and carried out Saturday’s attacks, said the operation was in response to the blockade, as well as recent Israeli military raids in the West Bank and violence at al-Aqsa Mosque, a disputed religious site in Jerusalem known to Jews as the Temple Mount.

“Enough is enough,” the leader of Hamas’s military wing, Mohammed Deif, said in a recorded message Saturday, the Associated Press reported. “Today the people are regaining their revolution.”

As of Sept. 19, before Saturday’s outbreak of violence, 227 Palestinians had been killed by Israeli troops or settlers this year, according to U.N. figures, with most of those deaths — 189 — occurring in the West Bank. At least 29 Israelis, mostly in the West Bank, were also killed this year as of the end of August, according to the same U.N. database — 15 of the Israelis killed were settlers and three were members of the military

What’s behind the violence in Israel and Gaza? Here’s what to know.

By Brian Murphy, Adam Taylor, Sammy Westfall, Bryan Pietsch and Steve Hendrix

October 7, 2023 at 3:34 p.m. EDT

The Washington Post · by Brian Murphy · October 7, 2023

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the nation was “at war” Saturday after Palestinian gunmen infiltrated Israel from Gaza, launching attacks on troops and civilians in the most brazen militant operation in years.

Israel responded with air and artillery strikes in Gaza, where the population was bracing for a wider campaign. By nightfall, at least 100 people had been killed in Israel, according to Zaki Heller, a spokesman for the Magen David Adom paramedic service. In Gaza, health officials said more than 230 people were killed in Israeli strikes.

The violence erupted suddenly Saturday morning — but comes after a year of rising tensions between Israel and Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza, which has been under a joint Israeli-Egyptian blockade since 2007. This year alone has seen a spate of deadly attacks in Israel and the Palestinian territories, an escalation that followed Netanyahu’s move to cobble together the most far-right government in Israeli history.

Hamas, which rules the Gaza Strip and carried out Saturday’s attacks, said the operation was in response to the blockade, as well as recent Israeli military raids in the West Bank and violence at al-Aqsa Mosque, a disputed religious site in Jerusalem known to Jews as the Temple Mount.

“Enough is enough,” the leader of Hamas’s military wing, Mohammed Deif, said in a recorded message Saturday, the Associated Press reported. “Today the people are regaining their revolution.”

As of Sept. 19, before Saturday’s outbreak of violence, 227 Palestinians had been killed by Israeli troops or settlers this year, according to U.N. figures, with most of those deaths — 189 — occurring in the West Bank. At least 29 Israelis, mostly in the West Bank, were also killed this year as of the end of August, according to the same U.N. database — 15 of the Israelis killed were settlers and three were members of the military

Here are some of the major incidents that took place this year in the lead-up to the current conflict.

September: Growing fears of all-out conflict

Just last month, Israel and Hamas, the Palestinian militant group that rules Gaza, appeared to be on the brink of war. Israeli border agents found explosive material hidden in a shipment of jeans and halted all exports from the Gaza Strip.

Hamas put its forces on high alert and held field exercises with other armed groups, including Palestinian Islamic Jihad. The drills included practice rocket launches, ambushes and the “storming” of settlements, local media in Gaza reported, in an apparent preview of the attacks launched on Saturday.

Hamas also allowed Palestinians to begin protesting again along the separation fence between Israel and Gaza, where young demonstrators have faced off against Israeli soldiers. On Sept. 13, five Palestinians were killed when they attempted to detonate an explosive at the barrier wall.

“It has been quiet, but it is beginning to boil,” Basem Naim, head of Hamas’s Political and International Relations Department, said in an interview with The Washington Post in September. “There is a lot of pressure under the water.”

A summer of military raids and retaliatory attacks

The tensions in Gaza followed a violent summer in the West Bank, where tit-for-tat attacks flared between Palestinian militants on one side and Israeli forces and Jewish settlers on the other.

Israel staged multiple military raids in the city of Jenin, where it said militants were planning attacks on Israeli troops and civilians. On June 19, Israeli forces raided Jenin and killed at least five Palestinians, deploying Apache helicopters in the West Bank for the first time since the second intifada, or Palestinian uprising, which lasted from 2000 to 2005.

The next day, Hamas gunmen opened fire at a hummus restaurant outside Eli, an Israeli settlement in the West Bank, killing four Israelis. And on June 21, hundreds of Israeli settlers rampaged through Palestinian villages — including Turmus Ayya, where one person was killed — torching homes and cars, as well as shooting at residents, according to Turmus Ayya mayor Lafi Adeeb.

Israel then also carried out its first drone strike in the West Bank since 2006, killing three suspected militants. On July 3, Israel’s military launched its biggest operation there in more than two decades, staging an air and ground attack on a refugee camp in Jenin with roughly 1,000 soldiers.

Israeli officials said they were targeting a militant “command center” in an operation that marked the start of an “extensive counterterrorism effort” that the Israel Defense Forces said would continue indefinitely. At least eight people were killed and 80 injured, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry.

Spring violence flares in Gaza and the West Bank

Before Israel’s massive operation in Jenin in July, its security forces shot and killed a 14-year-old boy on a bicycle as they pursued two Palestinian militants in March. The Post created a 3D reconstruction of the raid by synchronizing and reviewing dozens of videos from March 16, when the incident took place, as well as speaking to witnesses.

In early April, during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, Palestinian worshipers at al-Aqsa barricaded themselves inside the mosque. Israeli police then stormed the site in the Old City of Jerusalem and used “stun grenades and tear gas, fired sponge-tipped bullets, and indiscriminately beat Muslim worshipers — including elderly people and women — with batons and rifle butts,” the U.N. Human Rights Office said in a statement.

About a month later, Israel launched surprise airstrikes in Gaza targeting leaders of the Islamic Jihad militant organization, which is backed by Iran. The strikes killed three top militants and 10 others, according to Palestinian health officials, including four women and four children. Israel carried out the strikes a week after it reached a cease-fire with Palestinian armed factions. The Israel Defense Forces said the three senior Islamic Jihad members who were killed were responsible for recent rocket fire and attacks against Israelis.

The strikes set off a five-day bout of violence that killed at least 33 people in Gaza and two people in Israel. Israel and Islamic Jihad agreed to a cease-fire on May 13.

January: An operation in Jenin and a synagogue massacre

The year started with bouts of violence, including an Israeli military operation in Jenin that resulted in a shootout that killed nine Palestinians, local authorities there said. The raid was carried out on Jan. 26 — and the next day, a Palestinian gunman opened fire at a synagogue in East Jerusalem, killing seven people, including children, during prayers.

At the time, Hamas official Mushir al-Mashri congratulated the attacker — who was killed by Israeli security forces — saying that the shooting was “a quick response to the Jenin massacre, and is evidence of the vitality and readiness of the resistance.”

Steve Hendrix and Hazem Balousha contributed to this report.

The Washington Post · by Brian Murphy · October 7, 2023

7. Biden’s Middle East policies blamed after surprise attack on Israel

Go partisan early. What about Hamas' agency? Is everything America's fault? Sure our policies may have influenced this. Is this just a knee jerk reaction?

Biden’s Middle East policies blamed after surprise attack on Israel

washingtontimes.com · by Alex Miller

By - The Washington Times - Saturday, October 7, 2023

An Iranian-backed militant group’s surprise attack on Israel has put President Biden’s Middle East policies front and center, with critics saying he should take accountability for the attack.

Conservative critics, including former President Donald Trump and lawmakers in the House and Senate, have gone on the offensive against the president, claiming that his Middle Eastern policy decisions emboldened Hamas and its primary backer Iran.

The Jewish state was hit with a surprise blitz from the terrorist group early Saturday morning, which has left over 200 Israelis dead. The Israeli military also confirmed that numerous civilians and Israeli soldiers have been taken hostage by Hamas in Gaza.

Mr. Biden did not address any of the criticism lobbed his way during remarks given from the White House Saturday afternoon. The president did reaffirm the commitment he made to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the U.S. would “never fail” to have Israel’s back.

“Israel has the right to defend itself and its people full stop,” Mr. Biden said. “There’s never a justification for terrorist attacks. In my administration the support for Israel security is rock solid and unwavering.”

Mr. Biden continued, “Let me say this as clearly as I can: This is not a moment for any party hostile to Israel to exploit these attacks to seek advantage. The world is watching.”

The main point of contention for many is a prisoner swap deal with Iran brokered by the Biden administration in September. The Biden administration vowed to unfreeze $6 billion in oil revenues that had previously been frozen by sanctions against the country in exchange for the prisoners.

The expectation was that the funds would be used for humanitarian aid. However, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi told NBC News last month that the country would use the money “wherever we need it.”

Victoria Coates, former deputy national security advisor for the Middle East under the Trump administration, said that Iran had been starved of resources because of sanctions imposed by former President Donald Trump.

“If you unfreeze funds, if you let them sell oil, they spend that money on violent mayhem in the region, and they spend that money on attacks on Israel,” Mrs. Coates told Fox News.

Mr. Trump condemned the attacks, calling them a disgrace and supporting Israel to “defend itself with full force.”

“Sadly, American taxpayer dollars helped fund these attacks, which many reports are saying came from the Biden Administration,” Mr. Trump said.

Others are calling for Mr. Biden to be held culpable for the attack.

“The Biden Administration must be held accountable for its appeasement of these Hamas terrorists, including handing over billions of dollars to them and their Iranian backers,” said House Majority Leader Steve Scalise of Louisiana.

Meanwhile, the administration has labeled the outcry from conservatives as a disinformation campaign, and contends that none of the $6 billion, which was intended to be transferred from South Korean bank accounts to accounts in Qatar, has actually been spent.

National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson disputed money was put toward Hamas, saying on X that “not a single cent from these funds has been spent.”

“When it is spent, it can only be spent on things like food and medicine for the Iranian people,” Ms. Watson said. “These funds have absolutely nothing to do with the horrific attacks today and this is not the time to spread disinformation.”

• Alex Miller can be reached at amiller@washingtontimes.com.

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washingtontimes.com · by Alex Miller

8. 'Knee-jerk surge': Oil experts predict market impact of Israel-Hamas conflict

Speaking of knee jerk reactions. How high will a barrel of oil and a gallon of gas go?

If I were an enemy of America, two effects I would like to see are the depletion of US advanced warfighting equipment and ammunition stocks to support Ukraine and Israel simultaneously combined with domestic economic turmoil for the US. And gas prices are the best way to create such economic turmoil.

If that is a strategy of our enemy, how do we counter it and protect our national interests and security? Recognize the strategy, understand it, EXPOSE it, and attack it.

'Knee-jerk surge': Oil experts predict market impact of Israel-Hamas conflict

KEY POINTS

The overall impact on oil markets from the attack on Israel by Palestinian militants Hamas will likely be limited, provided the conflict does not escalate further, energy experts said.
“We may see a knee-jerk surge in crude prices when markets open on Monday,” Vandana Hari, CEO of Vanda Insights, told CNBC.
Both Israel and Palestine are not major oil players, but the conflict sits in a wider key oil producing region, analysts said, warning that it has the potential to conflagrate further.

CNBC · by Lee Ying Shan · October 8, 2023

In this article

VNDA

EDITORS NOTE: Graphic content / TOPSHOT - A plume of smoke rises above buildings in Gaza City on October 7, 2023 during an Israeli air strike. At least 70 people were reported killed in Israel, while Gaza authorities released a death toll of 198 in the bloodiest escalation in the wider conflict since May 2021, with hundreds more wounded on both sides. (Photo by MAHMUD HAMS / AFP) (Photo by MAHMUD HAMS/AFP via Getty Images)

Mahmud Hams | Afp | Getty Images

Crude oil prices could see a spike on Monday but the overall impact of the attack on Israel by Palestinian militants Hamas will likely be limited, energy experts told CNBC.

That's provided the conflict does not escalate further, they said.

"We may see a knee-jerk surge in crude prices when markets open on Monday," Vandana Hari, CEO of Vanda Insights, told CNBC via email.

"There will be some risk premium factored in as a default, until the market is satisfied that the event is not setting off a chain reaction and Mideast oil and gas supplies won't be affected," said Hari.

Militants from Hamas — designated by the U.S., European Union and the U.K. as a terrorist organization — infiltrated Israel by land, sea and air on Saturday, during a major Jewish holiday. The incursion came hours after the Islamist militants fired thousands of rockets into Israel from Gaza.

Civilians including women, children and the elderly have been abducted, and others killed in their homes, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said.

The impact on the oil price will be limited unless we see the 'war' between the two sides expand quickly to a regional war...

Iman Nasseri

Facts Global Energy

Israel has begun the offensive phase, and will "continue with neither limitations nor respite until the objectives are achieved," Netanyahu said.

He vowed to "exact an immense price from the enemy, within the Gaza Strip as well." Late Saturday, Israel cut off the supply of electricity, fuel and goods to the narrow strip where 2.3 million Palestinians live.

At the time of publication, there were at least 250 Israelis killed and more than 1,860 injured, including 320 in serious condition, NBC News reported. The Palestinian Healthy Ministry recorded 256 deaths and 1,790 injuries in Gaza.

How much oil is involved?

Both Israel and Palestine are not major oil players, but the conflict sits in a wider key oil producing region, analysts told CNBC, warning that it has the potential to conflagrate further.

Hari noted that while the conflict does not directly impact oil production or supply, it is still "on the doorstep of an important oil-producing and exporting region."

Israel boasts two oil refineries with a combined capacity of almost 300,000 barrels per day. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the country has "virtually no crude oil and condensate production." The Palestinian territories produce no oil, data from EIA shows.

It has the potential to widen into regional hostilities.

Vandana Hari

CEO of Vanda Insights

Hari's sentiments were echoed by other market watchers.

"The impact on the oil price will be limited unless we see the 'war' between the two sides expand quickly to a regional war where the U.S. and Iran and other supporters of the parties get directly involved," Middle East managing director of energy consultancy Facts Global Energy, Iman Nasseri, told CNBC.

Similarly, French businessman and hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand said that since the Levant is not a large oil producing region, the war is unlikely to impact oil supply in the short term.

"One should not expect a large oil price spike in the coming days. But it could eventually have an impact on supply and prices," he said in a post on X, the social media platform that was formerly Twitter.

Andurand said global oil inventories are low, and production cuts by OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia, as well as Russia, will lead to more inventory draws over the next few months.

"The market will eventually have to beg for more Saudi supply, which I believe, will not happen sub $110 Brent."

Crude oil prices recently hit their highest level in more than a year before pulling back.

Still, Hari warned that the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict "has the potential to widen into regional hostilities."

On Sunday, Lebanon's Hezbollah militant group confirmed it launched attacks on three sites in the Shebaa Farms — a strip of land that sits at the intersection of the Lebanese-Syrian border and the Golan Heights, which is occupied by Israel.

The Israeli Defense Force confirmed it has returned fire and "struck Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure."

CNBC · by Lee Ying Shan · October 8, 2023

9. House lawmakers discuss how to address intelligence briefings on Israel without speaker

Yeah, that speaker's decision was very well timed. The Gang of Eight intelligence members in Congress are thwarted by the "Crazy Eight Congressmen" who ousted the speaker (with some help from across the aisle).

House lawmakers discuss how to address intelligence briefings on Israel without speaker | CNN Politics

CNN · by Annie Grayer,Melanie Zanona · October 7, 2023

CNN —

House lawmakers are scrambling to determine whether acting Speaker Patrick McHenry can participate in a so-called Gang of Eight intelligence briefing on the unfolding crisis in Israel, a source familiar with the active discussions told CNN.

The source said the understanding is that it is ultimately up to the White House whether McHenry – who has the needed clearance – can be part of the leadership briefing, but emphasized how untested the situation is. The Gang of Eight includes the top leaders and heads of the intelligence committees in both parties and both chambers.

CNN has reached out to the White House for comment.

The House Intelligence Committee is also in discussions about scheduling a classified briefing next week, the source added, which can occur even given the current posture of the House.

But the emergency situation in Israel puts a spotlight on the state of paralysis – and uncharted legal territory – that the House is in without an elected speaker.

The US could announce new assistance to Israel as soon as Sunday, a US official said, but without a sitting House speaker, administration officials are unclear about what can be accomplished.

“Without a speaker of the House, that is a unique situation we’re gonna have to work through,” the official said.

McHenry has extremely limited powers as the temporary speaker of the House.

Committees can still continue to operate, but McHenry cannot bring bills or even nonbinding resolutions to the floor. He is mostly responsible for overseeing the election of a new speaker, which means recessing, adjourning or recognizing nominations on the floor.

The chaos around what the House can and cannot do has sparked outcry from some GOP members, who are calling on their party to speed up the timeline for electing a new speaker, though it’s unclear if it will.

“In light of today’s attacks, we should be called back to DC & vote on a Speaker ASAP,” GOP Rep. Brandon Williams said in a post on X, the platform previously known as Twitter. “We’ve all had a chance to discern between the two candidates. The nation & the world needs America’s Congress to be functioning. Every hour brings more risk. I met with a Taiwan representative yesterday… they are anxious about our weakness. It’s time to step up folks & get back to leading.”

GOP Rep. Mike Lawler called it “an unmitigated sh*t show.”

“This is why you don’t remove a Speaker mid-term without cause,” he wrote on social media.

The House GOP is scheduled to hold a candidate forum on Tuesday and its internal election on Wednesday, but it’s unclear when the floor vote will happen.

If the speaker’s race drags on, House Republicans could try to vote to give McHenry more temporary powers.

Democrats have put out guidance arguing that the authority of the acting speaker pro tempore is “strictly ministerial and the position’s sole role is to guide the House toward the election of a new Speaker or Speaker pro tempore,” according to a copy of the guidance obtained by CNN.

There is one rule pertaining to the acting speaker’s role that was developed after the September 11, 2001, terrorist attack that could open the door to McHenry trying to push the limits of his position, given how vaguely it was written.

“Pending such election the Member acting as Speaker pro tempore may exercise such authorities of the Office of the Speaker as may be necessary and appropriate to that end,” a rule of the House reads.

Some Republicans are arguing that this rule gives room for McHenry to take on a more administrative role but doubt that it gives him the ability to do anything legislatively.

“Many seem to believe it isn’t likely McHenry has the power to refer legislation to committee or bring bills to the floor. It’s easier to make an argument that McHenry is able to exercise some inherent administrative (rather than legislative) duties of the job,” one GOP lawmaker told CNN.

In the House’s current posture, members can still receive classified briefings, according to multiple sources, and the House Intelligence Committee members still have their security clearances.

This story has been updated with additional developments.

CNN’s Kevin Liptak contributed to this report.

CNN · by Annie Grayer,Melanie Zanona · October 7, 2023

10. What we know about the latest violence between Israel and Gaza

What we know about the latest violence between Israel and Gaza

At least 480 people have died since fighting started Saturday.

BY NICHOLAS SLAYTON | PUBLISHED OCT 8, 2023 1:32 AM EDT

taskandpurpose.com · by Nicholas Slayton · October 8, 2023

On early Saturday morning Palestinian militants with Hamas and Islamic Jihad launched a large-scale attack on Israel. Gunmen stormed into Israeli cities and towns while rockets launched from the Gaza Strip. In response, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the country is at “war” and pledged retaliation. Israel has launched several air strikes into the occupied territory of the Gaza Strip. The attack is the biggest attack inside Israeli territory in decades and the total death toll on both sides is now in the hundreds. As of the end of Saturday night, fighting continues, with several Israeli nationals — service members and civilians — held hostage by Hamas and Israel ramping up attacks into the occupied territory.

Here’s what you need to know about the conflict, including the death toll, groups involved and why people are spreading a lie that American money is funding the Hamas attack.

How it began

The fighting started early Saturday morning, with a large wave of rockets fired from the Gaza Strip. The rockets hit multiple sites including Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Militants then entered southern Israel via land and sea, despite heavy Israeli security, surveillance and a blockade of the Gaza Strip. Videos from today show Palestinian militants entering Israel from at least five points, with little initial resistance. Fighters attacked military sites and civilian areas in cities and towns. The attack into Israel is the bloodiest inside the nation’s territory in decades and comes almost 50 years to the day of the 1973 Yom Kippur War. The scale and multi-pronged nature of the attack, along with its success, points to major intelligence and defense failures in the Israeli security forces.

How many have been killed in the fighting?

Ongoing violence continues so the exact figure is unclear. As of the end of Saturday, at least 480 people in total are confirmed dead. That includes 250 Israeli deaths, as well as many more wounded. Figures from Gaza are harder to confirm in part due to limited Internet and power in the Gaza Strip since fighting began. At least 230 are reported dead.

Doctors Without Borders said that Israeli airstrikes hit a hospital and an ambulance outside of another medical center, killing two medical workers. As with the killing of civilians, indiscriminate or direct targeting of medical centers are prohibited by the Geneva Conventions and considered war crimes.

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What is the United States doing in response?

President Joe Biden explicitly condemned Hamas and Islamic Jihad’s actions on Saturday, reiterating American support for Israel.

Meanwhile, the United States military is not directly doing anything in response, yet. U.S. Central Command, which oversees operations in the Middle East, said that it is “closely tracking the situation surrounding the appalling terrorist attack by Hamas against the people of Israel. We stand with Israel and extend our condolences for the lives lost in these attacks.”

Top level American officials, including Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, are in contact with their Israeli counterparts. In a call with reporters on Saturday, a senior administration official said that the U.S. is communicating with Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon, and the Palestinian Authority which controls the occupied West Bank about the violence in Israel and the Gaza Strip, and working to prevent the fighting from spreading.

Are any other groups involved?

Right now the fighting is limited to parties in Israel and Gaza, specifically Hamas and Islamic Jihad. The Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, which has previously fought a war with Israel in 2006, has praised Hamas for the operation but has not taken action itself. As of press time, early Sunday morning Israeli local time there are reports of rockets being fired into the Golan Heights (Syrian territory occupied by Israel) from southern Lebanon; Hezbollah has claimed responsibility. Agence France-Press reports that Israel fired artillery at the launch site in Lebanon.

There is also no evidence pointing to Iranian involvement in this weekend’s violence, the Biden official said, although they noted Iran’s history of support for Hamas.

Is Iran using recently freed money to aid this operation?

A common claim and conspiracy theory that has popped up on social media since the fighting started is that the Hamas operation was financed in part with $6 billion in Iranian money the United States unfroze last month. It’s a claim that even some members of the U.S. Congress., Senators Rick Scott and J.D. Vance, voiced on Twitter.

It’s not true.

In September the United States agreed to release $6 billion as part of a deal to free five American citizens held in Iranian jails. The money was Iranian oil sale profits, not American taxpayer money. According to the Department of the Treasury, the money is currently in a Qatari bank. Under the agreement with Iran, Iran cannot directly utilize the money; instead it can be used to pay a third party for humanitarian, agricultural and medical services.

No money from that prisoner release deal has gone toward

What’s next?

As of Sunday morning, there is no sign of de escalation, or any attempts to negotiate an end to hostilities. The United Nations Security Council is set to meet to discuss the deadly crisis.

In light of the attack, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu — under intense pressure within Israel for his efforts to overhaul the country’s judicial system, widely regarded as an anti-democratic step — is in talks with opposition figuresYair Lapid and Benny Gantz to form an emergency unity government. Netanyahu promised retaliation against Hamas; so far that has been in the form of air strikes, not a ground operation. That has not been ruled out, although there has not been any signs as of press time of a ground operation.

Netanyahu told civilians in the Gaza Strip to “leave now” ahead of Israeli attacks. The Gaza Strip is one of the most densely populated places on Earth, with approximately 2 million people living in just over 360 square kilometers, putting civilians at risk. It is under blockade from Israel and the only other nation it shares a border with, Egypt, has not signaled that it would open its borders for a humanitarian corridor. The Biden official told reporters on Saturday that they had not heard reports of Netanyahu’s warning — Israeli media confirmed it — and had no comment regarding it.

Past wars between Israel and Gaza have been bloody for civilian populations on both sides. During the 2021 war in Gaza, 128 Palestinian civilians were killed. 14 civilians died in Israel. During Operation Cast Lead, the three-week-long war in 2008-2009, the violence killed more than 1,100 people in total, the majority of which were civilians. .

This is a developing story.

Update: 10/8/2023: This story has been updated to reflect Hezbollah taking credit for the rocket attack in the Golan Heights.

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taskandpurpose.com · by Nicholas Slayton · October 8, 2023

11. Army special operations cuts not expected to affect Green Berets

We are talking about a lot of apples and oranges here. If operators are not cut then the late John Collins' SOF truths may not apply as the soldiers enabling forces (intelligence, communications, andl logistics) do not go through qualification courses and they rotate every three years on normal PCS cycles. But the loss of the enabling capabilities will have a significant effect on operations, though I suspect many Green Berets will revert to relatively self-sufficient operations with little external support (other than funds) as they did before 9-11 when we did not have such large numbers of enabling forces. It won't be pretty but Green Berets will adapt. But it will reduce their effectiveness if they have to provide their own support and the loss of intelligence capabilities could be devastating.

Excerpts:

“Green Berets & their support teams are critical to advising and assisting partners in the Indo-Pacific and globally with strategic effects,” Waltz said. “The Army’s proposed cuts demonstrate a reckless ignorance of special operations impact on the soft power competition happening worldwide.”

The prospect of cuts to the Army’s special operations community comes after SOCOM’s massive expansion during the first 20 years of the Global War on Terrorism. The command has purview over all of the military branches’ special operators, including Navy SEALs, Marine Raiders, and Special Tactics airmen.

Between Fiscal Years 2001 and 2021, the number of military and civilian personnel assigned to SOCOM swelled from about 45,700 to about 73,900, according to the Government Accountability Office.

But the process of developing mature special operators takes more time than training service members for conventional military units. The Army Special Forces Qualification Course, for example, can last between 12 and 24 months.

Any soldiers or civilians cut from the Army’s special operations community would take years to replace if needed. One of the “SOF Truths” coined by retired Army Col. John Collins, a renowned national strategy expert, is “Special Operations Forces cannot be mass produced.”

Army special operations cuts not expected to affect Green Berets

The Army could cut about 3,000 special operators, about 10% of its special operations community.

BY JEFF SCHOGOL | PUBLISHED OCT 6, 2023 2:02 PM EDT

taskandpurpose.com · by Jeff Schogol · October 6, 2023

The Army expects to make cuts to its special operations community but the force of Green Berets who conduct combat missions is not expected to be reduced, a U.S. official told Task & Purpose on Friday.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has told the Army and U.S. Special Operations Command, or SOCOM, to not reduce the number of Green Berets, an official told Task & Purpose, speaking on condition of anonymity because the Army’s final plan has yet to be approved. Some currently unfilled Green Beret positions may remain unfilled.

Many of the other special operations billets that could be cut are also currently vacant, the official said.

The Wall Street Journal has reported that the Army expects to cut about 3,000 special operators from its ranks, including Green Berets. The cuts would represent about 10% of U.S. Army Special Operations Command.

Austin has not yet made any final decisions on cuts to Army special operations forces, a defense official told Task & Purpose on Friday.

Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.), a retired National Guard colonel and Green Beret, has said he strongly opposes any cuts to the Army’s special operations community.

“I am stunned and appalled by reports indicating the U.S. Army will cut 3,000 troops from its special operations ranks as a means to manage their worst recruiting crisis since the Vietnam War,” Waltz said in a statement on Thursday.

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While Army special operations forces have launched countless missions to kill or capture insurgent and terrorist leaders as part of the Global War on Terrorism, Special Forces have also historically been tasked with training and fighting alongside indigenous forces as part of their “foreign internal defense” mission. Over the years, Green Berets have embedded with local forces in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Syria, Niger, and elsewhere.

A U.S. Army Special Forces soldier assigned to Combined Joint Special Operations Task Force-Afghanistan provides security during an advising mission in Afghanistan, April 10, 2014. (Sgt. Sara Wakai/U.S. Army)

“Special operators play a crucial role in training allies across the world and are needed for the most dangerous missions in times of conflict and to deter enemies,” Waltz said. “Special operations are more relevant than ever as we address threats from China, Russia, Iran, and terrorists on the march in Afghanistan.”

Now that the war in Afghanistan is over, the Pentagon’s attention is fixed squarely on China, which defense officials have said could try to invade Taiwan by 2027. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has reverted to trench warfare, has also shown that the massive combined arms conflicts of the 20th Century have not gone away.

Army Secretary Christine Wormuth recently told reporters that the Army is looking to make changes to its overall force structure as it pivots from counterinsurgency and counterterrorism operations to large-scale combat operations.

“Our SOF [special operations forces] grew considerably over the last 20 years, given the kinds of wars we were fighting,” Wormuth said at an Oct. 3 media roundtable. “Meantime, the overall Army has gotten smaller. So, I think there’s some room to make some very modest targeted reductions there.”

The Army needs to bring “new capabilities” to the force, while it no longer needs as many capabilities to fight insurgents and terrorists, Wormuth said.

Because the Army, which is facing recruiting challenges, has gotten smaller in recent years, it must adjust its force structure to get rid of positions it no longer needs, she said.

“We need to shrink the size of that over-structure because essentially, if we don’t, it’s hollow structure,” Wormuth said. “So, part of what we’re doing is driven by the recruiting challenges we’ve had for the last few years. Part of that force structure transformation is about transforming to build new structure and to figure out what spaces we could afford to take off our books.”

However, Waltz told Task & Purpose that Special Forces could play a role if the United States and China went to war over Taiwan.

“Green Berets & their support teams are critical to advising and assisting partners in the Indo-Pacific and globally with strategic effects,” Waltz said. “The Army’s proposed cuts demonstrate a reckless ignorance of special operations impact on the soft power competition happening worldwide.”

The prospect of cuts to the Army’s special operations community comes after SOCOM’s massive expansion during the first 20 years of the Global War on Terrorism. The command has purview over all of the military branches’ special operators, including Navy SEALs, Marine Raiders, and Special Tactics airmen.

Between Fiscal Years 2001 and 2021, the number of military and civilian personnel assigned to SOCOM swelled from about 45,700 to about 73,900, according to the Government Accountability Office.

But the process of developing mature special operators takes more time than training service members for conventional military units. The Army Special Forces Qualification Course, for example, can last between 12 and 24 months.

Any soldiers or civilians cut from the Army’s special operations community would take years to replace if needed. One of the “SOF Truths” coined by retired Army Col. John Collins, a renowned national strategy expert, is “Special Operations Forces cannot be mass produced.”

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taskandpurpose.com · by Jeff Schogol · October 6, 2023

12. Reconsider Shutting Down the Navy’s Only Special Operations Support Squadron

We worked with these helicopter units through the Asia Pacific two decades ago and they were very good.

Excerpt:

Historically, the United States has seen long periods of irregular warfare following large-scale combat operations. One need look no further than Vietnam and Iraq, where HA(L)-5 and HCS-5—the progenitors of HSC-85—forged the squadron’s legacy. The capabilities of HSC-85 generated comparative advantages for U.S. and allied forces in the Indo-Pacific, including enabling maritime special operations and multinational integration. The Navy should reconsider shutting down its most combat-experienced rotary wing squadron as the United States draws closer to conflict in the Indo-Pacific.

Reconsider Shutting Down the Navy’s Only Special Operations Support Squadron

By Lieutenant Commander Benjamin Reed, U.S. Navy

October 2023 Proceedings Vol. 149/20/1,448

usni.org · October 5, 2023

On 8 August 2023, the U.S. Navy deactivated its only special operations support squadron. A target of the service’s divest-to-invest initiative, Helicopter Sea Combat Squadron (HSC) 85 was a reserve helicopter squadron based in San Diego, California, that deployed to the Indo-Pacific region to support Special Operations Command, Pacific. This divestment, colloquially known as “the shutdown,” is expected to result in defense savings of roughly $300 million in the coming years. However, this proposal disregards the broader operational flexibility HSC-85 provided to commanders in the Indo-Pacific. The lack of a dedicated special operations support squadron in the Navy could negatively affect the operational readiness of the United States in the Indo-Pacific and weaken the strategic position of the United States.

HSC-85

HSC-85, also known as the Firehawks, enabled stronger regional partnerships, a key tenet of the Indo-Pacific commander’s posture statement. The squadron was manned and equipped to maintain a deployable four-aircraft detachment. This model allowed the squadron to support various exercises—such as Cobra Gold, Talisman Saber, and Balikatan—and regional joint and multilateral exercises. The detachment regularly operated with foreign special operations forces and conventional assets. Fleet helicopter assets, often part of a carrier or expeditionary strike group, provide vital logistical and search and rescue capabilities and are not typically released to support the overland portions of such exercises. HSC-85’s proficiency validated interoperability doctrine and facilitated tactical development and evaluation.

The disestablishment of HSC-85 restricts the combatant commander’s ability to support operational requirements and respond to crises in the Indo-Pacific and could reduce U.S. freedom of action. The benefits of disestablishing HSC-85 do not outweigh the risks and long-term costs to the United States. In addition to the loss of a peacetime capability, the Navy has lost a ready reserve force.

This decision is incongruent with the Department of Defense’s recent report to Congress, which highlighted concerns about the inadequate mobilization capabilities of the U.S. armed forces in an escalation from great power competition to great power conflict. The Firehawks were the only reserve naval helicopter squadron that deployed from the West Coast. Ready reserve forces cannot mobilize quickly to augment the active force in the event of a contingency without a nucleus around which to form, otherwise risking inadequate combat effectiveness or delays in training. With funding, HSC-85 could continue to be such a force for the combatant commander to strengthen partnerships and mobilize immediately during a “break glass in case of emergency” scenario.

The Long View

Congress should not allow the Navy to make divestment decisions that affect combatant commander readiness without oversight. Shutting down a single squadron because of its unique characteristics to save money is a short-term solution. It would have been better if Congress had directed the Indo-Pacific commander to submit a risk analysis regarding HSC-85 divestment and continue funding HSC-85 until such risks were fully understood. Perhaps in the future Congress could direct the Navy and Special Operations Command to generate a cost-sharing proposal for future HSC-85 operations.

usni.org · October 5, 2023

13. Congress considers ‘very severe rollback’ of military’s DEI programs

The only way DEI programs work is through leadership and the chain of command being engaged. If contracting these programs wout to organizations in order to get so-called best practices has allowed leaders to step back to let the "experts" run these programs is what invites failure. Leaders have to make diversity, equity, and inclusion work. No program can replace good leadership.

The irony is that the youth in their teens and early twenties get DEI as a matter of routine while it is us old people that have to change our ways. The paradox may be in a decade or so these DEI programs may not be necessary because the new recruits already know these issues and they are much more accepting of diversity than the more senior generations.

Congress considers ‘very severe rollback’ of military’s DEI programs

militarytimes.com · by Nikki Wentling · October 6, 2023

Standing on stage on Sept. 16 in a Washington hotel ballroom at the Pray Vote Stand Summit, Rep. Jim Banks, R-Ind., vowed to expunge “wokeism” from the U.S. military. The audience, largely evangelical attendees, responded with raucous applause.

“‘Wokeism’ will eat our country inside-out if we let it, and we’ve got to stop it from taking over and transforming the military,” Banks said, standing in front of a backdrop adorned with the words, “De-Woking the Pentagon.”

“I’ve made that my top mission in Congress.”

Hosted by the Family Research Council, an evangelical activist organization known for its staunch opposition to abortion and LGBTQ rights, the event was headlined by a discussion on “returning the military’s focus to its mission.” Alongside Banks, who chairs the House Armed Services Committee’s personnel panel, two retired military officials vehemently denounced the Pentagon’s efforts toward diversity, equity and inclusion, or DEI.

People pray during the Pray Vote Stand Summit, Friday, Sept. 15, 2023, in Washington. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)

Opposition to the Pentagon’s DEI efforts has spiked among select conservative lawmakers since 2020, when Congress first expanded such programs and mandated the Defense Department’s hiring of a chief diversity officer, said Liz Yates, a researcher with the advocacy group Human Rights First.

Attempts by some lawmakers to dismantle the military’s DEI programs has reached a flash point as the House and Senate struggle to come to terms on the Fiscal Year 2024 Defense Department Appropriations Act, which Congress must pass annually to determine military spending.

In response to growing opposition, Human Rights First and 37 other advocacy organizations sent a letter to House and Senate leaders Wednesday, urging them to strike 22 proposals from this year’s bill, each of which target the military’s DEI and anti-extremism initiatives.

Eighteen of those proposals were included in the House-passed version, with the rest coming from the Senate. In total, Congress considered 56 proposals for provisions and amendments to DEI efforts. Lawmakers from both chambers still need to convene to negotiate differences between the two bills.

“[W]e write to express grave concerns about dangerous provisions included in the House and Senate-passed versions,” the letter states. “These provisions threaten the health and welfare of service members and their families, undermine diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) efforts in the military, and harm recruitment, retention, and force readiness.”

Minority Veterans of America, Protect Our Defenders, Service Women’s Action Network, Vet Voice Foundation and Veterans for American Ideals are among the groups that endorsed the letter, which argues that the proposed cuts would yield a “very severe rollback” of critical support for service members, according to Yates.

Human Rights First started tracking congressional efforts to rein in the military’s DEI initiatives this summer, when the organization reported that lawmakers had introduced 16 bills targeting such programs during the current congressional session — double the previous iteration.

If approved, the proposals would eliminate the Pentagon’s chief diversity officer and cut pay and staff from the military’s DEI offices. Also prohibited would be training on critical race theory, a term used to describe the idea that racism is systemic in U.S. institutions.

Additional proposals include the elimination of Pride flags on DoD grounds, gender pronouns on official correspondence, and books that mention gender identity in schools operated by the Department of Defense Education Activity.

Proposals to curb funding and staff, meanwhile, would negatively affect the collection of data about diversity in the armed forces, Yates argued, adding that such action could ruin efforts to determine the demographic makeup of service academies, officer training schools and the Senior Reserve Officers’ Training Corps. That data, she said, is vital to understanding inequities in the services.

“These are dangerous. It’s not just messaging — these can have serious impacts,” Yates said. “If they’re going to do everything they can to defund DEI, that means data collection is not going to happen.”

Some GOP lawmakers argue the proposals address items hurting the Pentagon’s recruitment efforts. On stage at the Pray Vote Stand Summit, Banks told a story of a teenage boy who wanted to join the Marine Corps but was concerned about being condemned for his conservative background.

“I believe that ‘wokeism’ is driving people away who would have formerly wanted to serve in our military,” Banks said.

Little evidence exists, meanwhile, that DEI initiatives are a root cause for recruiting shortfalls. The Pentagon’s Inspector General reported earlier this year that the majority of would-be recruits are not enlisting because of fear of death in combat, having grown up hearing about casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan. There is also increased competition between the military and the private sector for top talent, and private companies, on average, offer higher pay, the report states.

As GOP lawmakers continue to accuse President Joe Biden of politicizing the Pentagon, advocacy organizations and political analysts contend that recent conservative messaging suggesting the armed forces are too “woke” is the actual factor eroding public confidence in the military.

“There is very little evidence of ‘wokeness’ in the military, but there is a lot of evidence of the concern of ‘wokeness’ in the military,” said Peter Feaver, a Duke University professor and author of a book on civil-military relations. “We’ve reached the point where the concern is greater than the reality. No one has presented evidence that is commensurate with the amount of energy that is being devoted to it.”

House Democrats argued this week that the chamber’s version of the defense appropriations bill was one reason the party voted with ultra-conservative lawmakers to remove Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., as House speaker. Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., said in a letter Tuesday that McCarthy allowed the bill to become a “right-wing wish list full of highly partisan poison pills.”

Debates over the House’s defense appropriations bill offer just one example of lawmakers being less willing to compromise, Feaver said. Additionally, the tendency of lawmakers to push through an increasing number of proposals on the annual defense appropriations bill, rather than debate them as stand-alone legislation, is making Congress ineffective, he argued.

“The more we layer onto the defense budget all of our most divisive ‘culture war’ issues, the more we risk not having an appropriations bill and just having a continuing resolution,” Feaver said. “Congress has the authority to decide these issues, and if it wants to be seized with these issues, that’s what Congress gets to do.

“But to spend all of the congressional energy on these issues and fail to address military modernization and the mission-focused parts of the budget — Congress will have misallocated its energies.”

Editorial Fellow Jaime Moore-Carrillo contributed to this report.

This story was produced in partnership with Military Veterans in Journalism. Please send tips to MVJ-Tips@militarytimes.com.

About Nikki Wentling

Nikki Wentling covers disinformation and extremism for Military Times. She's reported on veterans and military communities for eight years and has also covered technology, politics, health care and crime. Her work has earned multiple honors from the National Coalition for Homeless Veterans, the Arkansas Associated Press Managing Editors and others.

14. China Believes UK Spies Tracked Submarine With The Help Of An Apple Watch: Report

China Believes UK Spies Tracked Submarine With The Help Of An Apple Watch: Report

https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/china-believes-uk-spies-tracked-submarine-with-the-help-of-an-apple-watch-report/ar-AA1hOv9m

Story by Times Now Digital •

china believes uk spies tracked its 093 submarine with the help of an apple watch: report

hina believes that UK spies its submarine by bugging a sailor's Apple smart-watch, The DailyMail reported citing Chinese dissidents. We cannot verify the report.

As many as 55 Chinese soldiers died when a nuclear-powered submarine - the Type 093 - sunk after being caught up in a trap intended for American and British vessels, UK-based The Times has reported citing leaked British intelligence reports. According to the report, the incident took place in the Yellow Sea. Beijing has denied the loss of the vessel and so has Taiwan.

British intelligence identified the vessel as a PLA Navy submarine 093-417 and added that it suffered catastrophic failure that poisoned the crew on August 21.

Comparing and Contrasting JSOC and USASOC in the Conduct of Irregular Warfare Activities

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/comparing-contrasting-jsoc-usasoc-conduct-irregular-warfare-artiaga/?utm_source=pocket_saves

Sal Artiaga

17 articles Following

October 7, 2023

Introduction

Irregular Warfare (IW) constitutes a wide range of activities that go beyond the conventional. It is a realm where the asymmetry of warfare is played out, demanding an understanding of culture, politics, and the non-traditional battlefield. In the U.S., both the Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) and the United States Army Special Operations Command (USASOC) are key players in IW. The fundamental question: which organization is better suited for such endeavors? The answer isn't straightforward and demands a nuanced comparison across various parameters.

Historical Experience and Legacy

USASOC, as the Army's component of the U.S. Special Operations Command (USSOCOM), has a storied history dating back to World War II, with legacies including the Office of Strategic Services (OSS). Over decades, USASOC units have engaged in IW operations, from the Vietnam War's Phoenix Program to present-day advise, assist, and accompany missions globally. This gives USASOC a depth of experience across various IW environments.

JSOC, established in the early 1980s, evolved against the backdrop of counter-terrorism operations. Its secretive nature, combined with missions like Operation Neptune Spear that led to Osama bin Laden's killing, has given it a reputation for surgical precision and adaptability.

Organizational Culture and Resources

USASOC, given its longer history, often works from a broader playbook. Its approach tends to be comprehensive, recognizing the importance of training local forces, civil affairs, and psychological operations. The emphasis is on embedding, understanding, and influencing.

JSOC, on the other hand, is bred on a culture of precision, speed, and adaptability. There’s an aggressive problem-solving ethos, often focused on high-risk, high-reward missions. Their primary lens is often kinetic, although they've also developed significant capabilities in influence operations.

While both commands have access to advanced technology and assets, JSOC operates with a larger discretionary budget, allowing it to push technological boundaries in operations, whether in intelligence-gathering or direct action. Its operations, often of a sensitive nature, demand bespoke solutions, giving it an edge in innovation.

USASOC, being larger and having diverse units like the Green Berets and Civil Affairs, offers a broader array of human-centric capabilities. Their reach is extensive, operating in scores of countries, emphasizing relationships, and building partner capacity.

Executive Function of the Human Domain

Understanding and influencing the human domain is central to IW. USASOC, with its Civil Affairs and Psychological Operations Groups, possesses inherent strengths in this area. They focus on working "by, with, and through" local forces, gaining a profound understanding of local dynamics, and weaving this understanding into operations.

JSOC, while primarily centered on high-value target operations, has evolved to incorporate human domain understanding, primarily through its intelligence and operational planning processes. But, while they excel in actionable intelligence, the broader sociopolitical integration seen in USASOC isn't their primary focus.

In the realm of decision-making, particularly under pressure, JSOC has an edge given its culture of rapid adaptability and critical thinking. Their missions often demand a real-time synthesis of intelligence with operational imperatives.

USASOC, while undoubtedly proficient in decision-making, operates on slightly extended timelines, especially in unconventional warfare scenarios where building trust and relationships is central. Their cognitive dominance shines in understanding the intricate socio-cultural webs of an area of operations.

Conclusion

Both JSOC and USASOC have demonstrated immense capabilities in the domain of irregular warfare. JSOC's kinetic focus, adaptability, and cognitive agility make it a formidable force in specific scenarios, particularly those demanding rapid, decisive actions against high-value targets. Their essence is the tip of the spear.

USASOC, conversely, is the embodiment of the comprehensive approach to IW. Their understanding of the human domain, deep experience, and broad operational spectrum make them ideal for campaigns demanding integration into local dynamics, training of local forces, and long-term influence.

Rather than a competition, the synergy between JSOC's precision and USASOC's breadth offers the U.S. a powerful combination in the diverse and complex world of irregular warfare. The key is to recognize the strengths of each and deploy them in congruence for maximum effect.

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Unveiling the Future of USSOCOM's Irregular Warfare Irregular Warfare (IW) is a dynamic realm, and two key players within USSOCOM: JSOC and USASOC, are at the forefront. But which one holds the ace for future SOF IW operations? JSOC, with its surgical precision and adaptability, has a knack for high-risk missions. On the other hand, USASOC boasts a rich legacy, broad capabilities, and a human-centric approach. Discover the strengths of each and why the synergy between them might just be the U.S.'s secret weapon in the ever-evolving landscape of IW. #IrregularWarfare #JSOC #USASOC #MilitaryStrategy #FutureOfWarfare #IWPractitioners #historymatters #historia #Guerrairregular

16. Indian Americans now largest Asian American group in U.S.

Interesting new demographic data.

20 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Indian Americans now largest Asian American group in U.S.

https://www.axios.com/2023/10/07/indian-americans-now-largest-asian-american-group-united-states

Niala Boodhoo

Inderjeet Poolust, 5, from India, celebrates at a U.S. citizenship ceremony in New York. Photo: Debbie Egan-Chin/NY Daily News Archive via Getty Images

Asian Americans are the fastest-growing racial group in the U.S., and Americans of Indian descent are now the largest sub-group within that, new data released from the 2020 Census confirms.

Why it matters: Indian Americans have a long history in the U.S. but their population was relatively small until the 1960s when a change in immigration policy helped lead to a migration boom of Indian tech workers. Over the generations, other family members also moved to the U.S.

By the numbers: The number of Americans who consider their racial origin as solely Asian Indian grew more than 50% to nearly 4.4 million people from 2010 to 2020.

When factoring in people who consider themselves either single race or multiracial, the most populous Asian identification among Americans is still Chinese (excepting Taiwanese): 5.2 million people.
That's an increase of 37.2% since 2010.
According to the Census, the five states with the largest percentages of Asian groups are California, New York, Texas, Hawaii and Washington.

Between the lines: If you look at people who identify as belonging to just one racial group — Asian — there are more Indian people than Chinese in the U.S., a trend that began in 2019, University of California, Riverside, political scientist Karthick Ramakrishnan, co-founder of AAPI Data, told Axios.

Stereotypes of who's in what ethic group often stem from who's in the first waves of migration into a country. Indian Asians have been in America throughout U.S. history, but East Asians accounted for many of the earlier arrivals.
Ramakrishnan pointed out that in the U.K, where the first waves were predominantly from South Asia, that's how most of the Asian population there is viewed.

What they’re saying: "We've had a very diverse Asian population," said Ramakrishnan, also co-author of article, "Who Counts As Asian?".

The rise of Indian Asians in America is significant partly because "it flies in the face of what people stereotypically think of as the quintessential Asian — their default image of someone who is Asian is East Asian."

Yes, but: As hate crimes against Asian Americans increase, half of all Asian Americans say they don't feel safe in this country, and nearly 80% feel like they don't belong.

There's very little data on how — and how many — Americans of Indian or South Asian descent have been targets of hate crimes.

17. How Beijing is waging secret war against West in bid to overthrow world order

So if there was a puppet master he or she might want to create chaos in Europe and the Middle East so they could wage war in other ways.

The four ways:

Cyber attacks

Land-grabbing ships

'Trojan horse' traps

Spy networks

How Beijing is waging secret war against West in bid to overthrow world order

RED ALERT Four ways China wages secret war on West from honeytrap spies to secret ships & data hacks in bid for new world order

Chris PleasanceImogen Braddick
Published: 6:51 ET, Oct 7 2023

the-sun.com · by Chris PleasanceImogen Braddick · October 7, 2023

BEIJING is waging a secret war against the West using honeypot spies, land-grabbing ships and data hacks in a bid to overthrow the world order.

For years, the West has watched anxiously as China has ramped up the size of its military - from dozens of new warships to menace Taiwan, to hundreds of nuclear silos in the desert.

Xi Jinping has been ramping up his military - but he's already waging war on the WestCredit: AP

China is attempting to expand its own power across the globeCredit: EPA

Christine Fang is believed to have been a Chinese agent who cosied up to US politiciansCredit: Facebook

But while world leaders wait to see what Xi Jinping intends to do with his new armies, Beijing is already waging a war right under their noses.

A new report has laid bare the "unprecedented" scale of this political warfare - and warned it poses a real and growing threat to America and its allies.

Seth Jones, report author and Center for Strategic and International Studies think-tank expert, said: "In our interviews with the FBI, they said… this is the most aggressive period they have ever seen of Chinese activity.

"One official said to us: 'The system is blinking red right now'."

Geopolitical strategist and Atlantic Council fellow Alp Sevimlisoy also warned the "threat is getting more and more serious day by day".

"It is important that we realise that China is a threat, not a challenger or competitor," he said.

"A challenge or a competitor seeks to play on the same playing field as you and win playing by the rules. In China’s case, it seeks to undermine us and our unity."

From land-grabbing drill ships, data hacks and AI, to a shadowy intimidation campaign code-named Operation Fox Hunt, here is how Beijing is working to overthrow the West.

Cyber attacks

Perhaps China’s most-successful under-the-radar activity has been its cyber attacks - which are thought to steal company secrets worth some $600billion each year.

But less-well-know and arguably more successful has been its hacks of personal data.

According to CSIS researchers, since 2014 the Chinese have stolen data on an estimated 80 per cent of Americans.

This was accomplished with large-scale breaches of companies including Starwood Hotels from which they stole reservation, credit card, passport and other information covering roughly 500million people.

Credit agency Equifax, the Office of Personal Management, and health insurer Anthem were also hacked and together yielded data on another 248million people.

"This repeated collection of vast amounts of data means that Beijing knows more about Americans than Americans likely know about themselves," CSIS said.

And what exactly China does with all that data isn’t clear, but the possibilities are troubling.

Researchers believe patterns in the hotel booking data could help Beijing identify trips by high-profile individuals in the future - including where they are staying.

In our interviews with the FBI... this is the most aggressive period they have ever seen of Chinese activity

Seth Jones

And the fact they seem to have prioritised stealing vast quantities of data - rather than specific data - suggests they are also using it to train artificial intelligence.

That AI could then be used to benefit China - for example using stolen medical data to recognise illnesses - or attack its adversaries.

"TikTok’s data-gathering capability reveals what media Americans find most engaging and what kinds of messages are most effective, which enables China to develop compelling messages that serve China’s larger interests," the CSIS report says.

Even more worryingly, researchers raise the prospect that Beijing "appears poised to use cyber operations for real-world effects, including attacks that could endanger lives".

That includes cyber attacks that could threaten gas and oil pipelines - such as the one that crippled the Colonial Pipeline back in 2021.

The attack shut down the oil pipe which supplies more than half the gasoline used on the US East Coast - and was thought to be carried out by a group based in Russia.

CSIS notes that "China’s growing sophistication and increasing aggressiveness in its campaigns mean it can compete effectively with the United States and Russia, from penetrating defence contractors to holding critical infrastructure at risk".

Land-grabbing ships

The fact that China has built military islands in the South China Sea is hardly a secret.

Clearly visible by satellite, they are bristling with airfields and missile batteries.

But lesser known are the two huge drill ships used to build the islands in the first place, and which are now being used to literally steal land from US ally Taiwan.

The Tian Kun Hao is 460ft long, weighs 2,800 tons and was dubbed by its creators the "magical island maker".

It works by lowering a cutting disc up to 115ft underwater where it chews up sand, clay and rock at a rate of 6,000 cubic metres - a little over two Olympic swimming pools - per hour.

Alongside its sister ship the Tian Jing Hong, which is only marginally smaller at 420ft, and a fleet of smaller vessels - it is being sent into Taiwanese waters to literally seize land.

Targeting the Penghu and Matsu Islands - located in the Taiwan strait - these vessels were caught illegally drilling sand and rock almost 4,000 times in 2020 alone.

Researchers at CSIS believe the ships are gathering materials for the Chinese construction industry, but the fact they come to Taiwan to get it hints at a more sinister purpose.

They believe the sheer scale of the incursions is designed to exhaust and over-extend the coast guard, which has to eject them each time they approach the islands.

Which drags them away from other vital missions, such as monitoring Chinese warships which are increasingly sailing into Taiwan’s defence zone.

And they are not the only vessels harassing Western allies in the region. Beijing also maintains a fleet of militarised fishing vessels which it uses to bully its neighbours.

The Tian Kun Hao is 460ft long, weighs 2,800 tons and dubbed as the 'magical island maker'Credit: Getty

China’s most-successful under-the-radar activity has been cyber attacks - estimated to steal company secrets worth $600billion each yearCredit: Getty

China owns stakes in a dozen critical ports including Piraeus Port in Greece - expanding its economic influence around the worldCredit: Getty

The People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia (PAFMM) appears to be a collection of civilian fishing boats but in reality, CSIS says, they are paid by the Chinese government to assert its claims to disputed waters.

Known as Beijing’s "little blue men", the vessels recently helped the Chinese coast guard menace Philippines navy ships resupplying troops on the Second Thomas Shoal.

Then, when the US, Japan and Australia announced joint navy drills in the area in response, hundreds of the fishing vessels gathered as a show-of-force.

Though CSIS believes their primary role is intelligence-gathering and intimidation, the sabre-rattling has led to fears that China could arm them in the event of a conflict.

But it is not just in waters close to China where Beijing is asserting its influence, it is also staking a claim hundreds of miles to the north in the Arctic.

The Xue Long and Xue Long 2 - whose names mean Snow Dragon - are two polar ‘research’ which, via the Ministry of Natural Resources, report to the Communist Party.

Despite being located hundreds of miles outside the Arctic Circle, China has designated itself a ‘near-Arctic state’ and now maintains a permanent presence there.

The Xue Long vessels are used to supply its permanent bases - located in Svalbard and Iceland - but also to conduct ‘research’ missions closer to the pole.

According to CSIS, one such mission in 2018 resulted in Xue Long placing China’s first unmanned research station on the ice along with various types of observation equipment.

These installations, CSIS believes, are ultimately designed for spying.

The report says: "China’s growing strategic emphasis on the Arctic stems from its perception of the region as yet another theatre for global competition.

"China has used state-led research efforts to assert its presence in the Arctic and to establish sites capable of collecting intelligence on activities in the region."

'Trojan horse' traps

China is the world’s largest creditor, having doled out an astonishing $1.5trillion in loans and grants to more than 150 countries up to 2020.

The method has been dubbed a Trojan horse - the argument being that China traps countries into a spiral of debt and takes over critical infrastructure.

Billions have flowed into some of the world’s poorest regions - Africa, the Caribbean, South America - with sometimes disastrous results, such as the rioting that rocked Sri Lanka.

The results have often been obvious - such as the Solomon Islands signing a defence pact with Beijing or Panama cutting ties with Taiwan - but the same tactics are being used far more subtly and far closer to home.

That’s because China has also been buying up infrastructure in Europe and making in-roads into the US economy, raising fears it will try to use that position to get its own way.

Which is exactly what Beijing did try to do in 2018 when Australia banned Huawei and ZTE from building the country’s 5G networks.

In that case, they retaliated by restricting the trade of coal, beef and wine - and while the move ultimately backfired, in Europe it could have serious knock-on effects.

That’s because China owns stakes in a dozen critical ports including majority stakes in Piraeus Port in Greece, Valencia and Bilbao, in Spain, and Zeebrugge, in Belgium.

This funding and financing... seeks to make Europe wholly dependent on China and to use that as a form of political bartering

It also holds minority stakes in some of the continent’s biggest ports, such as Antwerp and Hamburg, Germany’s largest container port.

China has also piled money into European airports, buying up 9.5 per cent of Heathrow Airport in 2013, 49.9 per cent of France’s Toulouse Airport in 2014, and 82.5 per cent of Germany’s Hahn airport.

In Portugal, the state-controlled Three Gorges Corporation bought 20 per cent of the country's top power provider, which has a near-monopoly on home energy, and 25 per cent of the national grid.

Threatening that infrastructure could cripple the continent economically and weaken its resolve to stand with the US in the event of a confrontation - for example over Taiwan.

"The European Union’s largest trading partner is now China, an aspect we must be ready to counter as those of us who are part of NATO member nations,’” Mr Sevimlisoy added.

"This funding and financing, it doesn’t seek to build up Europe - far from it - it seeks to make Europe wholly dependent on China and to use that as a form of political bartering.

"Europe is a critical battleground, and we’ve paid a huge price to protect it in the past. Are we willing to do what is necessary to protect it now?"

Spy networks

Overseen by the Ministry of State Security, which coordinates China’s overseas intelligence operations, Beijing is thought to maintain huge networks of spies the world over.

This is part of a "thousand grains of sand" approach that aims to piece together tiny and seemingly insignificant pieces of information from lots of sources into one big picture.

In recent years, China has used LinkedIn as a recruitment tool for these spies - posting bogus adverts purporting to be from headhunters, consultants, think-tanks and academics as a way of luring people in.

According to data reviewed by CSIS, there have been more than 10,000 such posts targeting those in the UK alone - and it appears Beijing has made infiltrating the UK parliament a priority.

In March this year, police arrested a parliamentary researcher with links to prominent Tory MPs on suspicion of being a Chinese spy, though he denies the claims.

And in January last year, MI5 issued a warning about lawyer Christine Ching Kui Lee who they accused of trying to influence politicians on behalf of China - though no criminal charges were brought.

Rather than working for the Ministry of State Security - as three spies deported from the UK in 2020 were - Ms Lee was accused of working for the United Front Work Department (UFWD).

The UFWD is part of Communist Party efforts to effectively co-opt the entire Chinese diaspora into its efforts to supplant the West.

In December 2020 it emerged US Congressman Eric Swalwell had a relationship with suspected Chinese spy Christine Fang.

Known as Fang Fang, she reportedly had sex with two mayors and targeted politicians to infiltrate US political circles.

These tools are part of a broad strategy of political warfare

CSIS report

The suspected spy targeted aspiring politicians from 2011 to 2015 and had a reported focus on Swalwell.

Mao Zedong was one of the first to use the phrase "united front" back in 1939 as he established dozens of organisations to exert control over the millions of Chinese who were not members of his party - to make them part of the "united front".

Xi revitalised the concept when he took power in 2012 and CSIS says the scale of united front work is now "massive" and cannot be fully accounted for.

China's Confucius Institutes established on many Western university campuses aim to influence debate, and donate to those same universities to influence how they are run.

Students who expressed views critical of China or its policies report being harassed or intimidated by members of the institute, who threatened to report them to their embassy.

The Chinese Ministry of Public Security also ran two secretive operations subbed Fox Hunt and Skynet.

Researchers described it as "an effort to monitor, harass, and in some cases repatriate Chinese diaspora living abroad".

Fox Hunt was uncovered earlier this year with the discovery of a network of "police stations" dotted across the world from which the operation was run - including one in Manhattan and one in London.

Lesser-known is Operation Skynet, which the FBI says works in parallel to target the finances of Chinese citizens living overseas by seizing any funds they may have still tied up in the homeland.

The report concludes: "These tools are part of a broad strategy of political warfare, which US diplomat George Kennan described as 'the employment of all the means at a nation’s command, short of war, to achieve its national objectives'.

"The US public and other international audiences are often unaware of the full nature and scope of these activities.

"Together with its partners, the United States now needs to develop a comprehensive approach to compete in this arena that is consistent with its democratic principles and values.

"The clock is ticking."

Christine Lee was accused of being a Chinese spy - pictured with former Labour MP Tom Watson

the-sun.com · by Chris PleasanceImogen Braddick · October 7, 2023

18. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 7, 2023

Maps/graphics/citations: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-7-2023

Key Takeaways:

The Kremlin is already and will likely continue to exploit the Hamas attacks in Israel to advance several information operations intended to reduce US and Western support and attention to Ukraine.
Several key sources within the Russian information space shifted the focus of their daily coverage to the situation in Israel on October 7, which may impact the information environment around the war in Ukraine in the coming days or weeks.
Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 7 and reportedly advanced in both directions.
Russian forces conducted a series of missile strikes targeting Ukrainian rear areas and port infrastructure on the night of October 6-7.
The Russian government approved legislation temporarily restricting the border checkpoints that Ukrainian citizens can use to enter Russia from third countries, likely focused on Belarus and the Baltic States, likely in response to continued concern over the security of Russian border regions and possible Ukrainian infiltration efforts.
Belarusian officials are leveraging international partnerships in an attempt to legitimize Belarus’ role in the illegal deportation of Ukrainian children.
Russian “Vostok” Battalion Commander Alexander Khodakovsky stated that Russian “patriotic” communities remain vulnerable to division due to Russian officials’ failure to consolidate society, particularly after Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s June 24 rebellion.
The Russian MoD highlighted the production of the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on October 7, supporting Russian President Vladimir Putin’s statements about successful tests of the missile on October 5 as part of a continued nuclear brinkmanship information operation.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in western Donetsk Oblast, in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and reportedly advanced in some areas on October 7.
Ukrainian partisan activity reportedly killed a United Russia official in occupied Kherson Oblast.

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, OCTOBER 7, 2023

Oct 7, 2023 - ISW Press

Download the PDF

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 7, 2023

Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, Angelica Evans, Christina Harward, and Mason Clark

October 7, 2023, 5:30pm ET

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cut-off for this product was 2pm ET on October 7. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the October 8 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

The Kremlin is already and will likely continue to exploit the Hamas attacks in Israel to advance several information operations intended to reduce US and Western support and attention to Ukraine. The Kremlin amplified several information operations following Hamas attacks in Israel on October 7, primarily blaming the West for neglecting conflicts in the Middle East in favor of supporting Ukraine and claiming the international community will cease to pay attention to Ukraine by portraying attention to the Middle East or alternatively Ukraine as a zero-sum comparison. Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev claimed the United States and its allies should have been “busy with” working on “Palestinian-Israeli settlement” rather than “interfering” with Russia and providing Ukraine with military aid.[1] The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) accused the West of blocking efforts by a necessary “quartet” of Russia, the US, the European Union, and the United Nations, leading to an escalation in violence, implicitly blaming the West for the current fighting.[2] Prominent Russian propagandist Sergei Mardan directly stated that Russia will benefit from the escalation as the world “will take its mind off Ukraine for a while and get busy once again putting out the eternal fire in the Middle East.”[3] These Kremlin narratives target Western audiences to drive a wedge in military support for Ukraine, seek to demoralize Ukrainian society by claiming Ukraine will lose international support, and intend to reassure Russian domestic audiences that the international society will ignore Ukraine’s war effort.

Several key sources within the Russian information space shifted the focus of their daily coverage to the situation in Israel on October 7, which may impact the information environment around the war in Ukraine in the coming days or weeks. Many Russian milbloggers focused largely on the Hamas attacks in Israel on October 7, and some promoted Kremlin information operations by claiming that the West’s attention has shifted away from Ukraine and towards Israel.[4] This focus on Israel even prompted one Russian milblogger to urge others to not “forget” about the war in Ukraine.[5] ISW cannot forecast at this time how the source environment will change as the Hamas attacks in Israel unfold but will provide clear updates on any impact on ISW’s ability to collect from Russian milbloggers and geolocation sources, and subsequent effects on the detail available ISW can provide in these daily assessments.

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 7 and reportedly advanced in both directions. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces were partially successful east of Andriivka (8km southwest of Bakhmut).[6] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Captain Ilya Yevlash noted that Ukrainian forces have advanced from 100 to 300 meters in different directions near Bakhmut over the past day.[7] Ukrainian military sources additionally stated that Ukrainian forces advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast in the areas north of Kopani (5km northwest of Robotyne) and north of Novoprokopivka (2km south of Robotyne).[8]

Russian forces conducted a series of missile strikes targeting Ukrainian rear areas and port infrastructure on the night of October 6-7. Ukrainian sources, including the Ukrainian Southern Operational Command, reported that Russian forces launched Onyx cruise missiles from occupied Crimea at Chernomorsk, Odesa Oblast; and Poltava Oblast Head Dmytro Lunin stated that Russian forces conducted a missile strike on Myrhorod, Poltava Oblast.[9] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Russian strikes damaged a granary, residential buildings, educational buildings, and other civil infrastructure.[10]

The Russian government approved legislation temporarily restricting the border checkpoints that Ukrainian citizens can use to enter Russia from third countries, likely focused on Belarus and the Baltic States, likely in response to continued concern over the security of Russian border regions and possible Ukrainian infiltration efforts. Russian media reported on October 6 that the legislation states that Ukrainian citizens 14 years old and above can only enter Russia from third countries through the Ludonka automotive checkpoint in Pskov Oblast (bordering Latvia) and Sheremetyevo airport in Moscow Oblast beginning on October 16.[11] The legislation does not apply to Ukrainian citizens traveling from occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts or Ukrainian citizens under the age of 14 traveling without a legal guardian. This decision is reportedly aimed at “ensuring the safety” of Russian citizens.

Belarusian officials are leveraging international partnerships in an attempt to legitimize Belarus’ role in the illegal deportation of Ukrainian children. Russian and Belarusian media reported on October 4 that a number of diplomats who are accredited in Belarus visited a group of 44 children from Lysychansk and Severodonetsk at an accommodation point in Novopolotsk, Belarus.[12] The group of diplomats included representatives from Zimbabwe, India, Qatar, China, Cuba, Mongolia, the United Arab Emirates, Palestine, Russia, Syria, and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).[13] Russian and Belarusian media reported that Belarusian officials showed the diplomats the dormitory where the children are located and talked about the educational and medical services provided to the children. ISW has previously reported that Belarus has been closely involved in Russia’s efforts to forcibly deport Ukrainian children from their homes, and the European Parliament adopted a resolution reflective of this fact on September 13 that recognizes Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko as complicit in crimes involving the deportation of Ukrainian children to Belarus and the Russian Federation.[14] Belarusian authorities likely hosted the delegation in an effort to portray its actions vis a vis Ukrainian children as somehow legitimate and legal, as many of the diplomats made positive statements about the accommodations and experiences of the children in Belarus.

Russian “Vostok” Battalion Commander Alexander Khodakovsky stated that Russian “patriotic” communities remain vulnerable to division due to Russian officials’ failure to consolidate society, particularly after Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s June 24 rebellion.[15] Khodakovsky argued that Russia must consolidate its society to achieve a common goal for the war – a goal that he claimed that Russian society does not have a good understanding of. Khodakovsky argued that the fact that Prigozhin remains in people’s heads despite his disappearance from the public eye after his rebellion demonstrates that Russian elites do not care much about the need to consolidate society. Khodakovsky concluded that there are and will be “provocative injections” into the Russian ultranationalist space that aim to break the patriotic environment by stirring up contradictions to slow and complicate the war effort. Khodakovsky added that these provocations also aim to make post-war Russian society unstable. Khodakovsky was likely reacting to discussions in the Russian information space following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s mention of Prigozhin at the Valdai Discussion Club on October 5, and his response likely indicates that Russian society continues to be influenced by Prigozhin despite his death on August 23.[16]

Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov awarded his son, Adam Kadyrov, the title of “Hero of the Chechen Republic” on October 7 despite recent controversy after Ramzan Kadyrov posted footage of Adam beating a detainee.[17] Russian State Duma Deputy Adam Delimkhanov, Adam Kadyrov’s godfather, praised Adam for being a “shining example” of competence and education and a purposeful young man.[18] Ramzan Kadyrov also notably appointed his daughter, Aishat Kadyrova, Chechen Deputy Prime Minister for Social Issues on October 2.[19] Both instances came after prominent members of the Russian Human Rights Council called for an investigation into Adam Kadyrov for the beating.[20]

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) highlighted the production of the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on October 7, supporting Russian President Vladimir Putin’s statements about successful tests of the missile on October 5 as part of a continued nuclear brinkmanship information operation. The Russian MoD published footage of Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visiting the Krasnoyarsk Machine-Building Plant and inspecting the production process of the Sarmat ICBM.[21] Shoigu claimed that the Russian Strategic Missile Force would be re-equipped with the Sarmat missile system. ISW previously assessed that the Kremlin and Russian MoD use nuclear rhetoric to prompt the United States and its allies to pressure Ukraine to negotiate and that Russian nuclear use in Ukraine remains unlikely.[22]

Key Takeaways:

The Kremlin is already and will likely continue to exploit the Hamas attacks in Israel to advance several information operations intended to reduce US and Western support and attention to Ukraine.
Several key sources within the Russian information space shifted the focus of their daily coverage to the situation in Israel on October 7, which may impact the information environment around the war in Ukraine in the coming days or weeks.
Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 7 and reportedly advanced in both directions.
Russian forces conducted a series of missile strikes targeting Ukrainian rear areas and port infrastructure on the night of October 6-7.
The Russian government approved legislation temporarily restricting the border checkpoints that Ukrainian citizens can use to enter Russia from third countries, likely focused on Belarus and the Baltic States, likely in response to continued concern over the security of Russian border regions and possible Ukrainian infiltration efforts.
Belarusian officials are leveraging international partnerships in an attempt to legitimize Belarus’ role in the illegal deportation of Ukrainian children.
Russian “Vostok” Battalion Commander Alexander Khodakovsky stated that Russian “patriotic” communities remain vulnerable to division due to Russian officials’ failure to consolidate society, particularly after Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s June 24 rebellion.
The Russian MoD highlighted the production of the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on October 7, supporting Russian President Vladimir Putin’s statements about successful tests of the missile on October 5 as part of a continued nuclear brinkmanship information operation.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in western Donetsk Oblast, in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and reportedly advanced in some areas on October 7.
Ukrainian partisan activity reportedly killed a United Russia official in occupied Kherson Oblast.

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine (comprised of two subordinate main efforts)
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast
Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis
Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts
Activities in Russian-occupied areas

Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on October 7 and reportedly advanced. A Russian milblogger amplified a claim that Russian forces advanced up to 1km near Yahidne (22km southeast of Kupyansk) on October 6.[23] A Russian news aggregator claimed that Russian forces also advanced near Synkivka (8km northeast of Kupyansk), Ivanivka (20km southeast of Kupyansk), and Kotlyarivka (22km southeast of Kupyansk).[24] The Russian “Storm Ossetia” and “Alania” volunteer battalions claimed that Russian forces advanced up to 500m in the Kupyansk direction.[25] The Ukrainian General Staff reported on October 7 that Russian forces conducted unsuccessful attacks near Synkivka and Ivanivka in Kharkiv Oblast and Makiivka in Luhansk Oblast (60km southwest of Kupyansk and about 22km northwest of Kreminna).[26] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces conducted a “massive” offensive in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions.[27] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Synkivka and Makiivka.[28] A Russian milblogger claimed on October 6 that Russian forces continue to strike crossings across the Oskil River in the Kupyansk direction.[29]

A Ukrainian military observer provided additional details on the Russian units operating in the Kupyansk direction on October 7. The observer stated that elements of the Russian 79th Motorized Rifle Regiment (18th Guards Motor Rifle Division, 11th Army Corps, Baltic Fleet) began moving closer to the front line east of Ivanivka (28km northeast of Kupyansk) and Velyky Vyselok (23km northeast of Kupyansk).[30] The observer stated that the Russian 11th Army Corps (Baltic Fleet) makes up the bulk of the Russian Western Grouping of Forces’ reserve forces in the Kupyansk direction. The observer added that Russian military command has deployed at least two unspecified combined tactical detachments with forces of up to a battalion each, which consist of “Storm-Z” companies. The observer stated that Russian forces have also concentrated elements of the Russian 448th Missile Brigade (20th Guards Combined Arms Army [CAA], Western Military District), 9th Guards Artillery Brigade (6th CAA, Western Military District), 45th High-Power Artillery Brigade (Western Military District), 244th Artillery Brigade (11th Army Corps, Baltic Fleet), 288th Artillery Brigade (1st Guards Tank Army, Western Military District), and 147th Guards Self-Propelled Artillery Regiment (2nd Guards Motor Rifle Division, 1st Guards Tank Army, Western Military District) in this direction. The observer added that elements of the Russian 138th Motorized Rifle Brigade (6th CAA, Western Military District), 1st Guards Motor Rifle Regiment (2nd Guards Motor Rifle Division, 1st Guards Tank Army, Western Military District), and 15th Motorized Rifle Regiment (2nd Guards CAA, Central Military District) will likely participate in the next Russian attack in the direction of Kupyansk.

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted unsuccessful attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on October 7. The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks near Lyman Pershyi (11km northeast of Kupyansk) in Kharkiv Oblast, Makiivka and Dibrova (6km southwest of Kreminna) in Luhansk Oblast, Torske (15km west of Kreminna) in Donetsk Oblast, and the Serebryanske forest area.[31] A Russian milblogger denied claims that Ukrainian forces advanced into Hryanykivka (16km northeast of Kupyansk).[32] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully attacked near Yampolivka (17km west of Kreminna), Dibrova, and Kuzmyne (3km southwest of Kreminna).[33]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction on October 7 and reportedly advanced east of Andriivka (8km southwest of Bakhmut).[34] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces achieved partial success east of Andriivka, and Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Captain Ilya Yevlash stated that Ukrainian forces managed to advance in different directions around Bakhmut by 100 to 300 meters over the past day.[35] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces continued unsuccessful efforts to break through Russian defenses near the railway line east of Andriivka and Klishchiivka (6km southwest of Bakhmut).[36]

Russian forces continued to counterattack near Bakhmut on October 7, but did not make any confirmed territorial gains. Yevlash and the Ukrainian General Staff stated that Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted to regain lost positions south of Andriivka.[37] A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that Russian forces counterattacked near Andriivka.[38] A Russian milblogger claimed that the Russian forces that are operating on separate frontline sectors near Klishchiivka are facing difficulties due to issues with communications equipment, reinforcements, and a lack of timely reports on the realistic situation on the battlefield.[39] The milblogger added that on the contrary, some other Russian units claim that they are able to hold their defenses but are ”suffering” because they have to create paper reports on spent ammunition.

Russian forces continued offensive operations on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line on October 7 and reportedly advanced in Marinka (on the southwestern outskirts of Donetsk City).[40] A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that Russian forces attacked near Novomykhailivka (10km southwest of Donetsk City) and Marinka, and slightly advanced in Marinka after a long period of positional battles.[41] The milblogger also claimed that Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked the southern approaches to Avdiivka and conducted reconnaissance-in-force near Druzhba (likely referring to a settlement 10km northwest of Horlivka, which is northeast of the Donetsk City area) to open a new area of hostilities.[42] A Russian news aggregator claimed that Russian forces resumed offensive operations near Krasnohorivka (5km west of Donetsk City) and that fighting is ongoing on Marinka’s western outskirts.[43] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Avdiivka, Pervomaiske (7km northwest of Donetsk City), Marinka, Krasnohorivka, and Novomykhailivka.[44]

Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks in the western Donetsk Oblast and the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area on October 7 but did not advance. One Russian milblogger claimed that a Ukrainian infantry platoon and two infantry fighting vehicles attempted to attack north of Mykilske (3km southeast of Vuhledar and about 30km southeast of Velyka Novosilka).[45] The Russian MoD claimed that elements of the Russian Eastern Grouping of Forces repelled three Ukrainian attacks near Pryyutne (15km southwest of Velyka Novosilka).[46] Russian milbloggers discussed purported Ukrainian attacks and continued fighting near Urozhaine (10km south of Velyka Novosilka), west of Staromayorske (10km south of Velyka Novosilka), and west of Novodonetske (13km southeast of Velyka Novosilka).[47]

Russian forces conducted counterattacks in western Donetsk Oblast and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area on October 7 but did not make any confirmed advances. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks in the western Donetsk Oblast near Vuhledar and Vodyane (6km northeast of Vuhledar) and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area near Zolota Nyva (12km southeast of Velyka Novosilka), Staromayorske, and Pryyutne.[48] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces have regained the initiative in this area and counterattacked from positions in Novodonetske (12km southeast of Velyka Novosilka) and Mykilske.[49] Russian sources amplified reports that the 34th Motorized Rifle Brigade (49th Combined Arms Army, Southern Military District) and elements of the 5th Combined Arms Army (Eastern Military District) are fighting in the area south of Velyka Novosilka.[50]

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 7 and reportedly advanced. Ukrainian military sources reported that Ukrainian forces were partially successful north of Kopani (5km northwest of Robotyne) and north of Novoprokopivka (2km south of Robotyne).[51] Russian milbloggers claimed that fighting has intensified along the Robotyne-Verbove line after Ukrainian forces restarted attacks northwest of Verbove.[52] Some Russian milbloggers reported that Ukrainian forces also conducted limited attacks north of Novoprokopivka and generally classified the situation south of Orikhiv as complicated and tense.[53]

Russian forces conducted limited counterattacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 7 but did not make any confirmed advances. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces are holding back Russian attacks northeast of Novoprokopivka.[54] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces conducted several counterattacks near Verbove and west of Robotyne.[55]

Russian milbloggers continued to voice concern over potential Ukrainian operations in Kherson Oblast. Several Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces are deploying naval infantry elements to the Kherson Oblast front to prepare to establish positions in the Dnipro River Delta.[56]

Ukraine reportedly launched a drone and missile strike against Russian infrastructure in occupied Crimea on October 6-7. The Russian MoD claimed that Russian air defenses detected and destroyed a Ukrainian drone 10km from the southwestern coast of occupied Crimea on the night of October 6.[57] The Russian MoD also claimed that Russian air defense forces downed a Ukrainian S-200 surface-to-air missile over Crimea on the evening of October 7.[58] Russian sources reported that air defenses were activated over Dzhankoi.[59] A Ukrainian military observer noted that the Russian military command has regrouped air defense forces and assets in occupied Crimea in order to better implement comprehensive control of the air, surface, and maritime situation in the Black Sea region.[60]

Satellite imagery confirms that the Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) maintains a substantial presence in Sevastopol.[61] Imagery from October 6 shows that there are two Krivak-class frigates, a patrol ship, two corvettes, three Ropucha-class landing ships, one Kilo-class submarine, two intelligence ships, and two repair vessels at the dock in Sevastopol.

Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)

Chinese companies continue to export US-origin technologies to Russia for use in Russian weapons systems. The US Department of Commerce added 42 Chinese companies to the export control Entity List that supplied the Russian military and defense industrial bases (DIB) with US-origin integrated circuits, including microelectronics used for Russian precision guidance missile and drone systems.[62]

Russian regional governments continue to indoctrinate Russian children with patriotic education in preparation for future military recruitment efforts. Russian opposition media outlet Idel Realii reported that the Republic of Tatarstan plans for more than 200,000 children to participate in the “Patriotic Education” program between 2023 and 2026, which will reportedly include the distribution of “A Handbook for Conscripted Soldiers” manuals.[63] ISW has previously reported on Russia’s long-term force generation efforts that would allow the Kremlin to sustain the war in Ukraine.[64]

Activities in Russian-occupied areas (Russian objective: Consolidate administrative control of annexed areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian citizens into Russian sociocultural, economic, military, and governance systems)

Likely Ukrainian partisans reportedly killed a United Russia official in occupied Kherson Oblast. Secretary of the United Russia branch in Nova Kakhovka Vladimir Malov died from injuries sustained during an explosion in his car.[65] The Ukrainian Resistance Center stated that Ukrainian partisans coordinated the attack.[66]

Russian occupation officials will deny Ukrainian citizens medical care as part of continued Russian passportization efforts. Zaporizhia Oblast occupation head Yevgeny Baltisky stated in an interview with Russian state television network Rossiya-1 on October 6 that occupation authorities in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast will not provide medical care to citizens without Russian passports starting January 1, 2024.[67] ISW has previously reported that Russian authorities and occupation administrations continue to conduct forced passportization in occupied Ukraine.[68]

Russian regional and federal governments continue to develop patronage networks with occupied regions of Ukraine in order to integrate occupied territories into Russia. The Kherson Oblast occupation administration stated on October 6 that the Adygea Republic has helped construct education infrastructure in Henichesk and that the Adygea Republic has become the “chief [Russian] region” supporting occupied Kherson Oblast.[69] The Kherson Oblast occupation administration stated that Russian First Deputy Presidential Chief of Staff Sergey Kiriyenko visited the construction site earlier. Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Head Denis Pushilin stated on October 6 that Russian Deputy Prime Minister for Construction and Regional Development Marat Khusnullin visited education centers and energy infrastructure installments in occupied Mariupol.[70]

Significant activity in Belarus (Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks and Wagner Group activity in Belarus)

The Belarusian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported that Belarusian peacekeeping forces arrived in Kyrgyzstan on October 7 to partake in the “Indestructible Brotherhood-2023" joint exercise with the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) member states.[71]

ISW will continue to report daily observed Russian and Belarusian military activity in Belarus as part of ongoing Kremlin efforts to increase their control over Belarus and other Russian actions in Belarus.

Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.

19. US Army Set For Elon Musk's SpaceX 'Starshield' Trials; SFAB To Become 1st Unit To Adopt The Systems

US Army Set For Elon Musk's SpaceX 'Starshield' Trials; SFAB To Become 1st Unit To Adopt The Systems

eurasiantimes.com · by Ashish Dangwal · October 6, 2023

The United States Army is gearing up to conduct trials to evaluate SpaceX’s Starshield systems, tailored explicitly for defense purposes and adapted from the company’s Starlink satellite internet service.

The commanding general of the 5th Security Force Assistance Brigade (SFAB) of the United States Army revealed that their unit is poised to become one of the initial adopters of Starshield.

US Army Colonel Brandon Teague, commander of the 5th Security Force Assistance Brigade (SFAB), disclosed that on October 1, the brigade took delivery of four Starshield systems.

These systems represent the military-specific variant of SpaceX’s Low-Earth Orbit satellite constellation tailored for communication purposes.

These newly acquired Starshield systems are slated for deployment at the Joint Pacific Multinational Readiness Center, where they will play a crucial role in a training rotation scheduled from late October to early November.

A Marine Corps Wideband System-Expeditionary Terminal is utilized during Exercise Vanguard on Camp Hansen, Okinawa, Japan, June 8, 2023. The MCWS-X allows Marines to be capable of operating, defending, and preserving information networks to enable command and control for the commander in all domains, and support and conduct Marine Air Ground Task Force operations in the information environment.

A US Army Colonel said that the first batch of the Starshield systems was introduced into the Pacific theatre, where the 5th SFAB is stationed.

According to Colonel Teague, the Starshield systems will play a crucial role in ensuring uninterrupted communications for the brigade during its validation exercise at Schofield Barracks in Hawaii.

These commercial satellite capabilities will serve as a reliable backup in the event of traditional military satellite communications (satcom) or internet service provider systems experiencing failures.

Furthermore, the system’s user-friendliness enables even non-specialized soldiers to set it up quickly. In a parallel development, SpaceX has recently achieved a significant milestone by securing its first contract with the United States Space Force for its Starshield satellite constellation.

A Space Force spokesperson officially confirmed the contract, valued at US$ 70 million and spanning a one-year duration. This collaboration marks a notable instance of the military branch engaging with the private sector to advance its capabilities in space operations.

This effort also reflects a broader shift within the US military, as it departs from protracted acquisition processes and transitions towards harnessing commercial expertise and capabilities across various mission domains.

SpaceX’s Starshield For US Military

Starshield, comprised of satellites in low-Earth orbit (LEO), is poised to deliver diverse functionalities. This includes, among other things, high-speed broadband, space situational awareness, and alternative solutions for positioning, navigation, and timing.

Starshield’s central focus areas revolve around earth observation, communications, and the hosting of specialized payloads, as elaborated on its official website.

It will leverage the identical broadband technology utilized in the firm’s Starlink satellite network, albeit with a specialized focus on governmental applications, primarily serving the US military and its affiliated agencies.

Unlike Starlink, which serves consumer and commercial needs and boasts the world’s largest satellite constellation, Starshield is exclusively designed to bolster national security initiatives.

Starshield will provide enhanced cybersecurity compared to standard Starlink satellites. It will incorporate advanced cryptographic capabilities that ensure higher levels of security, allowing it to host classified payloads and process data securely, thereby meeting the stringent security standards required by government agencies.

An uncaptioned image posted on the company’s website appears to show Starshield technology in orbit. SpaceX

Nevertheless, SpaceX has a track record of collaborating with various US military and government agencies. This collaboration includes a wide range of activities, including numerous launches within the framework of the National Security Space Launch program, satellite development for the Space Development Agency, and joint initiatives with NASA.

In 2020, the US Air Force also explored the military potential of Starlink. During a significant live-fire exercise, Starlink satellites played a pivotal role by establishing communication links among widely dispersed military assets across the United States, contributing to the successful interception of a drone and a cruise missile.

However, SpaceX’s involvement in defense-related endeavors has not been devoid of controversy. Elon Musk, the CEO of SpaceX, faced criticism for declining a request from the Ukrainian government to employ the Starlink satellite network to coordinate an attack on Russian targets.

Musk has emphasized the civilian character of Starlink, asserting that it must remain dedicated to civilian purposes and avoid any military entanglements. In contrast, “Starshield will be owned by the US government and controlled by DoD Space Force,” Musk noted.

The disclosure has prompted a congressional inquiry into Musk’s actions. Senator Jack Reed, who serves as the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, announced on September 14 that the committee is actively investigating this matter from all possible perspectives.

eurasiantimes.com · by Ashish Dangwal · October 6, 2023

20. 7Salutes: Army Special Forces officer pens play on experience serving in the military

I look forward to seeing this.

Photos at the link: https://wjla-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/wjla.com/amp/features/7news-salutes/army-special-forces-officer-bill-raskin-play-the-team-room-911-september-11-military-service-keegan-theatre-director-ray-ficca?utm_source=pocket_saves

Excerpt:

“Day one is the day before 9/11 and day two is where they go off to war and day three is where they redeploy and reconcile some of the events they ran into,” Raskin said.

7Salutes: Army Special Forces officer pens play on experience serving in the military

wjla-com.cdn.ampproject.org

WASHINGTON (7News) —

On September 10, 2001, the day before everything changed in America, Bill Raskin was an Army Special Forces officer.

The next day, when our nation came under attack, he and his team knew their world was about to be turned upside down. He was right.

Now, all these years later, Raskin was in the process of writing a book about it, but deep into the project, he thought a play would be a better vehicle to share what that time was like for people like him.

The play, called ‘The Team Room’ chronicles just three days.

“Day one is the day before 9/11 and day two is where they go off to war and day three is where they redeploy and reconcile some of the events they ran into,” Raskin said.

7News Anchor Jonathan Elias recently sat down with Raskin to talk about the upcoming play.

He said so many lessons learned as a special force’s operator are transferrable to anyone in any walk of life who has to rely on others to accomplish any goal.

“The one message is you ultimately succeed or fail based on the strength of the team,” Raskin said. “So, everyone is a special operator, but the team will succeed to the degree to which everyone finds that connectivity and bond to anticipate each other’s moves and stick together no matter how bad everything gets and ultimately to make each other better.”

7News caught up with Raskin during the evening of a rehearsal.

Actors were going over their scripts and working to embody the part of someone who risks their lives every time they go out for an operation.

The director of the play is Ray Ficca who is so excited to share this kind of play with folks that most likely have little to no understanding of what it is to serve in this capacity for their country.

“This is a play you want people to leave and say, ‘you know what, there is so much more to the military and the men and women who serve than what I see in the newspapers, tv and even [from] my relatives,” Ficca said.

‘The Team Room’ begins its 18-show run at the Keegan Theatre in D.C. on October 7, running through the end of the month.

View This Story on Our Site

wjla-com.cdn.ampproject.org

21. France vetoes American takeover of two 'sensitive' nuclear suppliers

France vetoes American takeover of two 'sensitive' nuclear suppliers

Le Monde · by Jean-Michel Bezat

French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire, at the Assemblée Nationale, in Paris on September 27, 2023. JULIEN MUGUET FOR « LE MONDE »

Two small companies, based in Mennecy (Essonne, northern France) and Lyon, have received a great deal of attention from the French finance ministry and the defense ministry in recent months. And with good reason: Segault (80 employees) and Velan SAS (280 employees) supply valves for the boiler rooms of Naval Group's nuclear submarines and EDF's (the state-owned electricity company) nuclear power plants.

These SMEs are subsidiaries of Canadian company Velan, currently in the process of being acquired by the Texas-based Flowserve Corporation. The French finance ministry vetoed on Friday, October 6, the takeover of Segault by the American industrial machinery giant. Following the veto, Flowserve announced it would abandon its plans to take over Velan worldwide.

Segault was subject to the "foreign investment screening procedures." This is automatic when a non-European industrialist or financier wishes to acquire at least 10% of the voting rights of a listed French company (or 25% of the voting rights of an unlisted company) operating in a strategic sector. The French government deemed that commitments made by the multinational Flowserve were insufficient to eliminate all risks.

Tighter controls on foreign investment

The affair has taken a political turn, especially on the right and far right. In May, in response to a question from a Rassemblement National MP, the Minister of Armed Forces Sébastien Lecornu warned that the French state would oppose "loss of operational control" of the company. Two months earlier, Arnaud Montebourg, former Minister of Industrial Renewal (2012-2014) during François Hollande's presidential term, had written to Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire, calling for the SME to remain in the French fold.

The government and companies in the defense industrial and technological base know that it's risky to have American suppliers. Washington can demand information from an American company or its foreign subsidiaries without judicial authorization. The International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) instrument governs exports of military equipment incorporating components, sub-assemblies, or software of American origin or under American license. In addition, the Department of Energy can impose its own regulations and hinder the export of French nuclear technologies. The takeover is hard to accept when you consider that Velan SAS equips EDF's 56 French reactors and three-quarters of the world's power plants.

Le Maire had already opposed the takeover of optronics specialist – and armed forces supplier – Photonis, by California-based Teledyne, in 2020. This company was eventually acquired by French investment firm HLD. Conversely, in January, the Finance Ministry and Defense Procurement Agency gave the green light to American company Heico's takeover of Exxelia (2,100 employees), but with a "golden share" retaining French oversight rights. Exxelia manufactures electronic components, notably for the Rafale and F-35 aircraft.

You have 10.33% of this article left to read. The rest is for subscribers only.

Le Monde · by Jean-Michel Bezat

22. Hamas Has Crossed The Rubicon: What Now? – OpEd

Will there be a Viet Cong-like ending for Hamas from its "Tet-like offensives?" Who will exploit such a possible outcome?

Hamas Has Crossed The Rubicon: What Now? – OpEd

eurasiareview.com · by Arab News · October 7, 2023

By Faisal J. Abbas

The massive escalation in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict sends so many messages at the same time. The first thing one has to note is that a Hamas attack on this scale could only have been possible after months of planning. In fact, this is exactly the kind of “explosion” warned of as a consequence of continued occupation and deprivation of Palestinian rights. Those claiming that the attack was unprovoked are wrong — this is precisely the reaction that deliberate and systematic intimidation by the current Israeli government garners when insult is added to injury.

Does this justify the killing and kidnapping of civilians? Absolutely not, and this is true regardless of who the villains or victims are.

So, what happens now?

Well, given recent history, the outcome is pretty predictable: Israel will say it has the right to defend itself, declare a full-scale war and inflict the maximum pain possible in retaliation. Hamas will declare the outcome — no matter what it is — a victory. Many Palestinians will celebrate the unprecedented early success portrayed in images of Israelis fleeing and soldiers being detained. Shortly after, the same Palestinians will suffer the devastating consequences at the hands, tanks and aircraft of the Israeli army. After that, Arab countries — namely the GCC — will come to the rescue and help rebuild Gaza.

Will this escalation change anything in the balance of power? Well, given the number of captured soldiers, it does provide Hamas with a few more bargaining chips. It also boosts the morale of the group’s followers since this is the first time such an operation has been so widely shared on social media. However, it is unlikely to change the reality on the ground, as Hamas simply does not have the means to sustain a standoff against the world’s 18th-strongest army, which has just been pledged full support by the US.

So, could this be a strategic move by Hamas aimed to tell the international community that “we alone decide for Palestine?” That is a possibility. At the end of the day, while it is true that the Palestinian Authority is the legitimate representative of the Palestinian people, the PA’s influence has always been limited compared with that of Hamas. It is the unfortunate reality that in the failed states of this part of the world, illegitimate, armed representatives, such as Hamas, Hezbollah in Lebanon or the Houthis in Yemen, will always have the upper hand. Meanwhile, the PA has no choice but to support Hamas in order to avoid further internal Palestinian friction. As a result, it will only be perceived as even weaker globally.

However, here are the cons of Hamas’s most recent adventure: It gives Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a way out of his internal political turmoil at a rare moment when even members of his own Israeli military were opposing him. Now, it is a full-scale war to protect Israel and rescue kidnapped soldiers and civilians, so it is a case of “all hands on deck.” It also further empowers his right-wing coalition at a time when the world has been trying to convince them to back down and tempt them with peace proposals.

Will Hamas emerge stronger or weaker after this? Well, this time they have crossed the Rubicon, and Israel has already signaled that the gloves are off. Given the level of escalation, even opponents of Netanyahu’s right-wing government in the US and Europe will be reluctant to call for restraint. In other words, Hamas must brace itself for tough times ahead, and, sadly, it is the average Palestinian who will eventually pay the price.

What effect will the latest events have on prospects for a wider regional peace proposal? The short answer remains: Time will tell. However, in my opinion, it is time for the world to double down. As the statement by the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs clearly indicated, the international community must act now to activate a credible peace plan that enables a two-state solution, which is the best means to protect civilians. Easier said than done? Perhaps, but at least Saudi Arabia can say it tried its best, and has been for decades.

Faisal J. Abbas is editor-in-chief of Arab News. X: @FaisalJAbbas

eurasiareview.com · by Arab News · October 7, 2023

23. A ‘Pearl Harbor’ moment: Why didn’t Israel’s sophisticated border security stop Saturday’s attack?

Overconfidence? Arrogance? Complacency? This will be studied for years to come as this looks like a very well planned and sophisticated attack.

A ‘Pearl Harbor’ moment: Why didn’t Israel’s sophisticated border security stop Saturday’s attack?

Analysis by Joshua Berlinger, CNN

Updated 8:27 PM EDT, Sat October 7, 2023

https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/07/middleeast/israel-gaza-border-security-intl/

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CNN —

The gunmen came from air, sea and land. They shot at civilians, took hostages and forced families to barricade themselves indoors, fearing for their lives.

A day that began with air raid sirens blaring out in the early morning had by lunchtime turned into one of the most terrifying attacks Israel has known in the 75 years of its existence. Assailants from Hamas, the Islamist militant group that controls the impoverished and densely populated Gaza Strip, had by nightfall killed hundreds of people and wounded hundreds more.

Netanyahu says Israel is 'at war' as Hamas launches surprise air and ground attack from Gaza

Though Israel is no stranger to terrorist attacks, Saturday’s assault was unprecedented – not least because of the lack of warning. Israel’s military on Saturday found itself caught off-guard, despite decades in which the country became a technology powerhouse that boasts one of the world’s most impressive armed forces and a premier intelligence agency.

The questions for Israeli authorities are legion. It has been more than 17 years since an Israeli soldier was taken as a prisoner of war in an assault on Israeli territory. And Israel has not seen this kind of infiltration of military bases, towns and kibbutzim since town-by-town fighting in the 1948 war of independence. How could a terror group from one of the world’s poorest enclaves manage to launch such a devastating attack?

“The entire system failed. It’s not just one component. It’s the entire defense architecture that evidently failed to provide the necessary defense for Israeli civilians,” said Jonathan Conricus, a former international spokesman for the Israel Defense Forces.

“This is a Pearl Harbor-type of moment for Israel, where there was reality up until today, and then there will be reality after today.”

The IDF has repeatedly dodged questions about whether Saturday’s events constitute an intelligence failure. Military spokesman Lt. Col. Richard Hecht told CNN that Israel was focused on the current fight and protecting civilian lives.

“We’ll talk about what happened intelligence-wise after,” Hecht said.

‘Obviously not adequately protected’

Whether by coincidence or design, the attacks came the day after the 50-year anniversary of another unforeseen conflict, when a coalition of Arab states launched a surprise attack against Israel on Yom Kippur, the holiest day of the Jewish calendar, in 1973.

Since Israel withdrew from Gaza in 2005, it has spent billions of dollars securing the border from attacks. That has striking at any weapons fired from inside Gaza into Israel and stopping terrorists from trying to cross the border from air or underground using tunnels. To stop rocket attacks, Israel has used the Iron Dome, an effective rocket defense system developed with help from the United States.

Israel also spent hundreds of millions of dollars building a smart border system with sensors and subterranean walls that was, according to Reuters, completed at the end of 2021.

Israeli officials will almost certainly look at where those systems failed on Saturday. As of Saturday morning, Israel said Hamas had fired 2,200 rockets, though it did not release figures on how many of those were intercepted. Officials have not commented on if the border fence did its job.

Aaron David Miller, a former State Department negotiator on Middle East issues, told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer that Israeli communities near Gaza were “obviously not adequately protected.”

“I just don’t think the Israelis saw this coming,” Miller said.

How Israel responds will likely involve more than just border reinforcements. The Israel Defense Forces have already begun airstrikes in Gaza targeting Hamas infrastructure, resulting in hundreds of dead and injured.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the country will “return fire of a magnitude that the enemy has not known,” while the top official in charge of activities in the Palestinian territories, Maj. Gen. Ghassan Alian, said that Hamas had “opened the gates of hell.”

Conricus, the former IDF spokesman, said Saturday’s events will force Israel to back up that rhetoric and respond “in a way that it has never responded before.”

24. Proposed USASOC Cuts: A Threat to Global Security - SOAA

Proposed USASOC Cuts: A Threat to Global Security - SOAA

soaa.org · by Deanna Bowman · October 6, 2023

The United States Army Special Operations Command (USASOC) is a pivotal component of our national security architecture. Representing a sizable percentage of the 6000 total operators deployed across 80 countries at any given time, USASOC stands as a testament to our commitment to global peace and security. The Pentagon has proposed cutting 3000 troops, signifying a 10% reduction in USASOC’s 36,000 total personnel — a decision that will have significant repercussions on operational efficiency. The Pentagon’s short-sighted proposal specifically calls for cutting civil affairs units, psychological operations, and intelligence enablers, which have proven integral to USASOC’s success.

These specialized teams possess unrivaled expertise and have endured some of the most intense preparation regimes in existence. They ensure swift and efficient neutralization of threats to our nation. Any reduction in their numbers translates, not only to the loss of skilled soldiers, but also a diminishing of the cumulative knowledge, experience, and institutional memory they collectively represent. The potential consequences for our national defense cannot be overstated.

Furthermore, in today’s rapidly changing geopolitical landscape, rapid deployment of trans-regional, cross-functional teams is paramount. USASOC’s adaptability to evolving threats, from counterterrorism to cyber challenges, has been crucial to maintaining a strategic edge. Their capability to respond instantaneously to global crises has repeatedly proven invaluable.

USASOC teams don’t only defend our homeland. They play a crucial role in training and equipping allies around the world. In regions where there are looming dangers posed by aggressive neighboring nations, such as Ukraine and Taiwan, a robust USASOC presence has proven effective in providing support to the underdog, preventing the collapse of the government and the complete occupation of the country. Their in-depth linguistic, cultural, and diplomatic training also gives them a distinct ability to collaborate with foreign entities, a dimension that conventional forces often lack.

USASOC must continue to be a linchpin in our nation’s security apparatus. Their commitment, dedication, and unparalleled skill have been instrumental in safeguarding American interests. Any cuts to this elite group, especially in a world where their rapid deployment is more critical than ever, risks compromising our national security. It is our collective duty to support and honor USASOC’s Servicemembers. We urge Congress to push back against any proposals to diminish their strength. Our national security rests heavily upon their capable shoulders.

soaa.org · by Deanna Bowman · October 6, 2023

25. Moving on from Milley: CQ Brown brings ‘buttoned down’ persona to Joint Chiefs

Moving on from Milley: CQ Brown brings ‘buttoned down’ persona to Joint Chiefs

BY ELLEN MITCHELL - 10/07/23 2:00 PM ET

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4240956-mark-milley-cq-brown-joint-chiefs-transition/

When Army Gen. Mark Milley formally handed the highest-ranking military title over to Air Force Gen. CQ Brown last week, he left a daunting series of challenges for a fellow commander with a markedly different personality than his own.

As the new Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman, Brown faces a West growing weary of support for Ukraine, partisan brawls over the Defense budget, growing culture war battles over the military, and an array of tensions abroad — from unrest in the Sahel to threats from China, Iran and North Korea.

But Brown, a quiet and steady diplomat to Milley’s boisterous Massachusetts-native manner, will likely take a different approach to conflicts than his predecessor, experts say.

“I think of Gen. Brown as much more buttoned down, very personally engaging but also professionally more cautious and more restrained than Gen. Milley,” said Michael O’Hanlon, a security fellow at the Brookings Institution.

Milley, whom O’Hanlon described as having a “back slapping, effusive personality” and “no shyness for the microphone,” saw myriad crises and potential political pitfalls during his tenure, moments that prompted him to frequently wade into the middle of hot-button conversations.

“I’d be surprised if Gen. Brown has any interest in being that big of a presence himself in our public policy debates. I think he’ll be more focused on a more traditional limited portfolio” the Joint Chiefs chairman takes on, O’Hanlon added.

At the ceremony last week to mark Milley’s exit and Brown’s ascension, President Biden praised the Texas native and former fighter pilot’s “unflappable demeanor.” At the same event, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin lauded Brown’s leadership, noting that “he will defend our democracy without flinching.”

Brown steps into the role at a time when the Defense Department must navigate several festering issues, including a House Speaker fight that imperils future Ukraine aid, Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s (R-Ala.) hold on military nominees in protest of the Pentagon’s abortion policy, and strained defense relations with China, which America sees as its chief military threat.

But the four-star general is also starting his new position with nearly four decades of military experience, most recently as Air Force chief of staff, where he routinely pressed for new innovations and efforts to grow and maintain the service in the face of competitors.

That background has experts predicting he’ll take the more traditional route when it comes to the job compared to his predecessor. The chairman’s typical main jobs are to advise the president on the use of force, report to the president on the state of the military, and help guide innovation in the armed forces.

“Milley was much more focused on the policy and strategy in kind of dealing with the White House and then [Capitol Hill],” said Bryan Clark, a senior fellow with the Hudson Institute think tank.

“Milley tended to maybe incorporate more of the political dimension in his work about the military’s role in society. I think that was partly because he got kind of pushed into it, but also I think that was maybe his predisposition. He’s got a Princeton University PhD and he comes out of that more kind of military-political world as opposed to Brown, who is going to come out of a much more operational, technical world.”

Clark, who called Brown’s demeanor “very thoughtful,” said he believes the general will “exert more of the operational, strategy dimensions of the office and focus on — what’s the military doing to deal with its challenges? How does the military best support national strategy?”

Still, Brown is no stranger to tackling the thornier issues, exerting a quiet yet powerful presence as he deftly addressed racial tensions in the country three years ago.

In an Air Force video released shortly after Minneapolis police officers murdered George Floyd in June 2020 — an act that set off a wave of protests and civil unrest across the country — Brown spoke in a steady voice of his experiences as a Black man in America and in the military.

“I can’t fix centuries of racism in our country, nor can I fix decades of discrimination that may have impacted members of our Air Force,” Brown said. “I’m thinking about how I can make improvements personally, professionally and institutionally so that all airmen both today and tomorrow, appreciate the value of diversity and can serve in an environment where they can reach their full potential.”

That quiet demeanor carried over during his confirmation process to be the military’s highest-ranking officer, when he kept his thoughts to himself as the vote was held up for months by Tuberville. The Alabama senator ultimately opposed Brown’s confirmation, citing the general’s support for “woke policies.”

In his first week on the job, Brown set a steady tone for his tenure in a message to the Joint Force, outlining his priorities for the next four years and calling for the U.S. military to continue to modernize and adapt.

“Through all, trust is the foundation of our profession,” Brown wrote in the Monday letter. “Trust across the force, that we will do right by each other. The trust of our families, that we will care for them through trial and triumph. The trust of our nation and elected leaders, in our commitment to our oath and profession. As Chairman, I will strive every day to strengthen these bonds.”

At least for the first year in his new role, Brown won’t have to deal with some of the tumult Milley endured under former President Trump, who often sought to bend the military to his own political whims.

Milley quickly saw his own relationship with Trump deteriorate as the general sought to weather crisis after crisis including threats of nuclear war from Iran and North Korea, a worldwide pandemic, civil unrest in summer 2020 and an insurrection.

Trump as recently as last week was still lambasting the general, calling Milley “slow moving and thinking” and a “woke train wreck.”

And Milley appeared to have little love for his former commander in chief, telling service members during his farewell address that they “do not take an oath to a king, or a queen, to a tyrant or a dictator or a wannabe dictator.”

O’Hanlon predicted a far quieter start to Brown’s new job. But with most crises not easily foreseen and a presidential election next year, “reality may have something else to say about it,” he added.

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

Access NSS HERE

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