Quotes of the Day:

“It was miraculous. It was almost no trick at all, he saw, to turn vice into virtue and slander into truth, impotence into abstinence, arrogance into humility, plunder into philanthropy, thievery into honor, blasphemy into wisdom, brutality into patriotism, and sadism into justice. Anybody could do it; it required no brains at all. It merely required no character.”

- Joseph Heller, Catch-22

"The only thing that makes like possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next."

- Ursula Le Guin

"Liberty is the prevention of control by others. This requires self-control and, therefore, religious and spiritual influences; education, knowledge, well-being." 

- Lord Acton

1. Iran Helped Plot Attack on Israel Over Several Weeks

2. US military to move a carrier strike group in support of Israel

3. Why Hamas Attacked—and Why Israel Was Taken by Surprise

4. What the Hamas Attack Means for Israel – Netanyahu Has Nothing but Bad Options

5. Israel Under Attack by Hamas | SOF News

6. How Hamas Outfoxed Israel's Iron Dome, A Nearly Impenetrable Air Defence

7. ‘There Were Terrorists Inside’: How Hamas’s Attack on Israel Unfolded

8. Iran Update, October 8, 2023

9. Ukraine "running rings" around Russia amid Crimea wins: Ex-general

10. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 8, 2023

11. Statement From Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III on U.S. Force Posture Changes in the Middle E​ast

12. Readout of Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III's Call With Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant

13. Divergent Options: Writing Contest Results – The Taiwan Offensive

14.  Israel intensifies strikes and vows to besiege Gaza as it scours south for Hamas fighters

15. There Is No Consensus on American Decline in Beijing

16. Is Israel at War With Iran?

17. US expedites munitions for Israel, moves ships and aircraft into region after Hamas attack

18. Israel Faces Its 9/11

19. Opinion: In the name of health care freedom, millions of veterans may lose theirs

20. A father reflects on the death of his son during the 2017 Niger ambush

21. Israel and Palestinian war: What you need to know right now

22. How Hamas duped Israel as it planned devastating attack

23. Israel Orders Complete Siege of Gaza

24. Opinion | Hamas attack is an intelligence failure that may take Israel years to unravel

25. Special Operations News - October 9, 2023 | SOF News

26. What is Neoliberalism? David Harvey’s Philosophy

1. Iran Helped Plot Attack on Israel Over Several Weeks

I think we can assess that there will likely be strikes on Iran.

Iran Helped Plot Attack on Israel Over Several Weeks

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps gave the final go-ahead last Monday in Beirut

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-israel-hamas-strike-planning-bbe07b25

by Summer Said

Follow, Benoit Faucon

Follow and Stephen Kalin

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Updated Oct. 8, 2023 7:32 pm ET

Members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attend a meeting. PHOTO: IRANIAN PRESIDENCY/ZUMA PRESS

DUBAI—Iranian security officials helped plan Hamas’s Saturday surprise attack on Israel and gave the green light for the assault at a meeting in Beirut last Monday, according to senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah, another Iran-backed militant group.

Officers of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had worked with Hamas since August to devise the air, land and sea incursions—the most significant breach of Israel’s borders since the 1973 Yom Kippur War—those people said.

Details of the operation were refined during several meetings in Beirut attended by IRGC officers and representatives of four Iran-backed militant groups, including Hamas, which holds power in Gaza, and Hezbollah, a Shiite militant group and political faction in Lebanon, they said.

U.S. officials say they haven’t seen evidence of Tehran’s involvement. In an interview with CNN that aired Sunday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said: “We have not yet seen evidence that Iran directed or was behind this particular attack, but there is certainly a long relationship.” 

“We don’t have any information at this time to corroborate this account,” said a U.S. official of the meetings.

Leading the effort to wrangle Iran’s foreign proxies under a unified command has been Ismail Qaani, the leader of the IRGC’s international military arm. PHOTO: SALAMPIX/ZUMA PRESS

A European official and an adviser to the Syrian government, however, gave the same account of Iran’s involvement in the lead-up to the attack as the senior Hamas and Hezbollah members.

Asked about the meetings, Mahmoud Mirdawi, a senior Hamas official, said the group planned the attacks on its own. “This is a Palestinian and Hamas decision,” he said. 

A spokesman for Iran’s mission to the United Nations said the Islamic Republic stood in support of Gaza’s actions but didn’t direct them.

“The decisions made by the Palestinian resistance are fiercely autonomous and unwaveringly aligned with the legitimate interests of the Palestinian people,” the spokesman said. “We are not involved in Palestine’s response, as it is taken solely by Palestine itself.”

A direct Iranian role would take Tehran’s long-running conflict with Israel out of the shadows, raising the risk of broader conflict in the Middle East. Senior Israeli security officials have pledged to strike at Iran’s leadership if Tehran is found responsible for killing Israelis.

The IRGC’s broader plan is to create a multi-front threat that can strangle Israel from all sides—Hezbollah and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine in the north and Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas in Gaza and the West Bank, according to the senior Hamas and Hezbollah members and an Iranian official.

At least 700 Israelis are confirmed dead, and Saturday’s assault has punctured the country’s aura of invincibility and left Israelis questioning how their vaunted security forces could let this happen.

Israel has blamed Iran, saying it is behind the attacks, if indirectly. “We know that there were meetings in Syria and in Lebanon with other leaders of the terror armies that surround Israel so obviously it’s easy to understand that they tried to coordinate. The proxies of Iran in our region, they tried to be coordinated as much as possible with Iran,” Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, Gilad Erdan, said Sunday. 

Hamas has publicly acknowledged receiving support from Iran. And on Sunday, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi talked to Palestinian Islamic Jihad leader Ziyad al-Nakhalah and Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh. 

Iran has been setting aside other regional conflicts, such as its open feud with Saudi Arabia in Yemen, to devote the IRGC’s foreign resources toward coordinating, financing and arming militias antagonistic to Israel, including Hamas and Hezbollah, the senior Hamas and Hezbollah members said.

The U.S. and Israel have designated Hamas and Hezbollah as terrorist organizations. 

“We are now free to focus on the Zionist entity,” the Iranian official said. “They are now very isolated.”

The strike was intended to hit Israel while it appeared distracted by internal political divisions over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. It was also aimed at disrupting accelerating U.S.-brokered talks to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel that Iran saw as threatening, the senior Hamas and Hezbollah members said.

Building on peace deals with Egypt and Jordan, expanding Israeli ties with Gulf Arab states could create a chain of American allies linking three key choke points of global trade—the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Bab Al Mandeb connecting the Red Sea to the Arabian Sea, said Hussein Ibish, senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington.

“That’s very bad news for Iran,” Ibish said. “If they could do this, the strategic map changes dramatically to Iran’s detriment.”

Leading the effort to wrangle Iran’s foreign proxies under a unified command has been Ismail Qaani, the leader of the IRGC’s international military arm, the Quds Force. 

Qaani launched coordination among several militias surrounding Israel in April during a meeting in Lebanon, The Wall Street Journal has reported, where Hamas began working more closely with other groups such as Hezbollah for the first time. 

Around that time, Palestinian groups staged a rare set of limited strikes on Israel from Lebanon and Gaza, under the direction of Iran, said the Iranian official. “It was a roaring success,” the official said.

Iran has long backed Hamas but, as a Sunni Muslim group, it had been an outsider among Tehran’s Shia proxies until recent months, when cooperation among the groups accelerated.

Representatives of these groups have met with Quds Force leaders at least biweekly in Lebanon since August to discuss this weekend’s attack on Israel and what happens next, they said. Qaani has attended some of those meetings along with Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah, Islamic Jihad leader al-Nakhalah, and Saleh al-Arouri, Hamas’s military chief, the militant-group members said. 

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian attended at least two of the meetings, they said. 

“An attack of such scope could only have happened after months of planning and would not have happened without coordination with Iran,” said Lina Khatib, director of the SOAS Middle East Institute at the University of London. “Hamas, like Hezbollah in Lebanon, does not single-handedly make decisions to engage in war without prior explicit agreement from Iran.”

The Palestinian and Lebanese militias’ ability to coordinate with Iran will be tested in the coming days as Israel’s response comes into focus.

Egypt, which is trying to mediate in the conflict, has warned Israeli officials that a ground invasion into Gaza would trigger a military response from Hezbollah, opening up a second battlefront, people familiar with the matter said. Israel and Hezbollah exchanged fire briefly on Sunday.

Hamas has called on Palestinians in the West Bank and Palestinian citizens of Israel to take up arms and join the fight. There have been limited clashes in the West Bank, but no reports of clashes between Arabs and Jews inside Israel, as happened in May 2021 when Israel and Gaza last engaged in extended combat.

The Iranian official said that if Iran were attacked, it would respond with missile strikes on Israel from Lebanon, Yemen and Iran, and send Iranian fighters into Israel from Syria to attack cities in the north and east of Israel. 

Iran’s backing of a coordinated group of Arab militias is ominous for Israel. In previous conflicts, the Soviet Union was the ultimate patron of Israel’s Arab enemies and was always able to pressure them to reach some type of accommodation or recognize a red line, said Bernard Hudson, a former counterterrorism chief for the Central Intelligence Agency.

“The Soviets never considered Israel a permanent foe,” he said. “Iran’s leadership clearly does.”

—Anas Baba contributed to this article.

Write to Summer Said at summer.said@wsj.com, Benoit Faucon at benoit.faucon@wsj.com and Stephen Kalin at stephen.kalin@wsj.com

Corrections & Amplifications

Officers of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had worked with Hamas since August to devise the air, land and sea incursions. A photo caption in an earlier version of this article incorrectly identified the group as Islamic Revolution Guards Corps. Also, a photo of Ismail Qaani, the leader of the IRGC’s international military arm, was incorrectly identified in a caption in an earlier version of this article as Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. (Corrected on Oct. 8)

Copyright ©2023 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

Appeared in the October 9, 2023, print edition as 'Iran Helped Plot Attack on Israel Over Several Weeks'.

2. US military to move a carrier strike group in support of Israel

The Pentagon is providing POTUS options.

US military to move a carrier strike group in support of Israel

Defense News · by Tara Copp · October 8, 2023

Editor’s note: This story was updated at 4:20 p.m. EST with additional information.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Sunday he has ordered the Ford carrier strike group to sail to the Eastern Mediterranean to be ready to assist Israel after the surprise attack by Hamas that has left more than 1,000 dead and thousands wounded on both sides. Americans were reported to be among those killed and missing.

The USS Gerald R. Ford the Navy’s newest and most advanced aircraft carrier, and its approximately 5,000 sailors and deck of warplanes will be accompanied by cruisers and destroyers in a show of force that is meant to be ready to respond to anything, from possibly interdicting additional weapons from reaching Hamas and conducting surveillance.

The large deployment, which also includes a host of ships and warplanes, underscores the concern that the United States has in trying to deter the conflict from growing. The Israeli government formally declared war Sunday and gave the green light for “significant military steps” to retaliate against Hamas.

A Palestinian inspects the rubble of a high rise building destroyed by Israeli airstrikes in Gaza City early Sunday, Oct. 8, 2023. (Adel Hana/AP)

Preliminary reports indicate that at least four American citizens were killed in the attacks and an additional seven were missing and unaccounted for, according to a U.S. official. The numbers were in flux and could change as a fuller accounting is compiled., according to the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss initial reports received by the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem. Most, if not all, of those reported dead or missing are dual U.S.-Israeli citizens, the official said.

Along with the Ford the U.S. is sending the cruiser USS Normandy, destroyers USS Thomas Hudner, USS Ramage, USS Carney, and USS Roosevelt and the U.S. is augmenting Air Force F-35, F-15, F-16, and A-10 fighter aircraft squadrons in the region.

“The U.S. maintains ready forces globally to further reinforce this deterrence posture if required,” Austin said in a statement.

In addition, the Biden administration “will be rapidly providing the Israel Defense Forces with additional equipment and resources, including munitions. The first security assistance will begin moving today and arriving in the coming days,” Austin said.

The Norfolk, Virginia-based carrier strike group( was already in the Mediterranean. Last week it was conducting naval exercises with Italy in the Ionian Sea. The carrier is in its first full deployment.

President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in a telephone call Sunday, discussed “the taking of hostages by Hamas terrorists, including entire families, the elderly, and young children,” according to a White House statement describing their conversation. Biden stressed that all countries “must stand united in the face of such brutal atrocities.”

The president updated Netanyahu on U.S. diplomatic efforts and said additional assistance for Israeli forces was on the way, with more to come in the days ahead, the White House said.

They also discussed ways “to ensure that no enemies of Israel believe they can or should seek advantage from the current situation.”

On Capitol Hill, the House is preparing a bipartisan resolution that says it “stands with Israel” and condemns “Hamas’ brutal war.”

The resolution from the leaders of the House Foreign Affairs Committee is expected to be among the first items considered for voting once the House elects a new speaker.

“Now is the time to show the world the United States firmly stands with our friend and ally Israel in our condemnation of this heinous attack by Iran-backed terrorists,” said the committee chairman, Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Texas.

House business is currently at a standstill in after the historic ouster of Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif.

Majority Republicans plan to kick off the selection process, in private, at a Tuesday evening forum where candidates can address their colleagues. The real contest could come as soon as Wednesday when the House next convenes.

AP Diplomatic Writer Matthew Lee and AP Congressional Correspondent Lisa Mascaro contributed to this report.

About Tara Copp, AP

Tara Copp is a Pentagon correspondent for the Associated Press. She was previously Pentagon bureau chief for Sightline Media Group.

3. Why Hamas Attacked—and Why Israel Was Taken by Surprise

Excerpts:

It's remarkable that this is happening 50 years, almost to the day, after the surprise Arab attack on Israel that launched the 1973 Yom Kippur War.

It is remarkable—and it is no coincidence. Let’s remember that, for the Arabs, the Yom Kippur war was seen as a victory. Egypt and Syria succeeded in taking the Israeli military by surprise, succeeded in crossing the Suez Canal and advancing on the Golan Heights, to the point where many Israelis thought Israel was finished. And so even though, in the end, Israel prevailed in that war, the victory of the first days is still celebrated in the Arab world. So for Hamas to show, 50 years later, that it can do the same thing—that is a huge boost to its standing in the Arab world, and a huge challenge to those countries and leaders that have made place with Israel in the preceding 50 years. And it’s worth pointing out that Hamas is a very different adversary. In 1973, [Egyptian President] Anwar Sadat went to war with Israel in order to make peace with Israel. Hamas has launched a war to destroy Israel—or to do its best to weaken it, to take it down a peg. Hamas doesn’t have any interest in making peace with Israel.

It was hubris that led the Israelis to believe, in 1973, that they were unbeatable, that they were the superpower in the Middle East, that they no longer needed to pay attention to Egyptian and Syrian concerns because they were so powerful. That same hubris has manifested itself again in recent years, even as many people told the Israelis that the situation with the Palestinians was unsustainable. They thought the problem was under control. But now all their assumptions have been blown up, just like they were in 1973. And they’re going to have to come to terms with that.

Why Hamas Attacked—and Why Israel Was Taken by Surprise

A Conversation With Martin Indyk

October 7, 2023

Foreign Affairs · by October 7, 2023 · October 7, 2023

On the morning of Saturday, October 7, the Palestinian group Hamas carried out a surprise attack on Israel on an unprecedented scale: firing thousands of rockets, infiltrating militants into Israeli territory, and taking an unknown number of hostages. At least 100 Israelis have died, and at least 1,400 have been wounded; Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that his country was “at war.” As Israeli forces responded, around 200 Palestinians were killed and around 1,600 wounded.

For insight into what this means for Israel, the Palestinians, and the region, Foreign Affairs turned to Martin Indyk, the Lowy Distinguished Fellow in U.S.-Middle East Diplomacy at the Council on Foreign Relations. Indyk has twice served as U.S. ambassador to Israel, first from 1995 to 1997 and again from 2000 to 2001. He also served as U.S. President Barack Obama’s special envoy for Israeli-Palestinian negotiations from 2013 to 2014. Earlier, he served as special assistant to President Bill Clinton and senior director for Near East and South Asian affairs at the National Security Council, and as assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs in the U.S. Department of State. Indyk spoke with Executive Editor Justin Vogt on Saturday afternoon. The conversation below has been edited for length and clarity.

A number of observers have remarked that today’s events have had an impact on Israelis similar to the effect the 9/11 attacks had on Americans. But Israelis have endured a great deal of violence in recent decades—as, of course, have Palestinians. What sets this apart?

This was a total system failure on Israel’s part. The Israelis are accustomed to being able to know exactly what the Palestinians are doing, in detail, from their sophisticated means of spying. They built a very expensive wall between Gaza and the communities on the Israeli side of the border. They had been confident that Hamas was deterred from launching a major attack: they wouldn’t dare, because they would get crushed, because the Palestinians would turn against Hamas for causing another war. And the Israelis believed that Hamas was in a different mode now: focused on a long-term cease-fire in which each side benefited from a live-and-let-live arrangement. Some 19,000 Palestinian workers were going into Israel every day from Gaza, and that was benefiting the economy and was generating tax revenues.

But it turns out that was all a massive deception. And so people are in shock—and, like on 9/11, there is this sense of, “How is it possible that a ragtag band of terrorists could pull this off? How is it possible they could beat the mighty Israeli intelligence community and the mighty Israeli Defense Forces?” And we don’t have good answers yet, but I’m sure part of the reason was hubris—an Israeli belief that sheer force could deter Hamas, and that Israel did not have to address the long-term problems.

Why would Hamas choose to carry out this particular kind of attack right now? What was the strategic logic?

Martin Indyk

I can only speculate—I’m still in shock, quite honestly. But I think you have to consider the context at this moment. The Arab world is coming to terms with Israel. Saudi Arabia is talking about normalizing relations with Israel. As part of that potential deal, the United States is pressing Israel to make concessions to the Palestinian Authority—Hamas’s enemy. So this was an opportunity for Hamas and its Iranian backers to disrupt the whole process, which I think in retrospect was deeply threatening to both of them. I don’t think that Hamas follows dictation from Iran, but I do think they act in coordination, and they had a common interest in disrupting the progress that was underway and that was gaining a lot of support among Arab populations. The idea was to embarrass those Arab leaders who have made peace with Israel, or who might do so, and to prove that Hamas and Iran are the ones who are able to inflict military defeat on Israel.

There are talks going on regarding a peace deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia, and conversations about U.S. security guarantees for Saudi Arabia. In all likelihood, a primary motivation for Hamas and Iran was a desire to disrupt that deal, because it threatened to isolate them. And this was a very good way to destroy its prospects, at least in the near term. Once the Palestinian issue returns to front and center, and Arabs around the Middle East are watching American weapons in Israeli hands killing large numbers of Palestinians, that will ignite a very strong reaction. And leaders such as [Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince] Mohammad bin Salman will be very reluctant to stand up to that kind of opposition. Doing so would require him to stand up and tell his people, “This is not the way. My way will get the Palestinians much more than the way of Hamas, which only brings misery.” That kind of courage is, I think, too much to expect of any Arab leader in this kind of crisis.

What options exist now for the Israeli government?

Well, they’ve been through this five times before, and there’s a clear playbook. They mobilize the army, they attack from the air, they inflict damage on Gaza. They try to decapitate the Hamas leadership. And if that doesn’t work in terms of getting Hamas to stop firing rockets and enter into negotiations to release the hostages, then I think we’re looking at a full-scale Israeli invasion of Gaza.

This was a total system failure on Israel’s part.

Now that presents two problems. One is that Israel would be fighting in densely populated areas, and the international outcry against civilian casualties that Israel would inflict with its high-tech American weapons would shift condemnation onto the United States and Israel, and put pressure on Israel to stop. The second problem is, if Israel succeeds in a full-scale war, they then own Gaza, and they have to answer the questions: How are we going to get out? When do we withdraw? Whom do we withdraw in favor of? Remember, the Israelis already withdrew from Gaza in 2005, and they do not want to go back in.

You’ve known and dealt with Netanyahu on a personal and professional level for decades. What course do you expect he’ll choose?

Well, the first thing to know is that he prides himself on his caution when it comes to war. He’s very careful not to launch full-scale wars. So I think his first preference will be to use the air force to try to inflict enough punishment on Hamas that they will agree to a cease-fire and then a negotiation for the return of the hostages. In other words, a return to the status quo ante: that’s what he’ll be trying to get, trying to use the United States, Egypt, and Qatar to influence Hamas to stop. If that doesn’t work, and I doubt it will, then he’s got to look at other options.

Why do you doubt that will work?

Because I fear that Hamas’s intention is to get Israel to retaliate massively and have the conflict escalate: a West Bank uprising, Hezbollah attacks, a revolt in Jerusalem.

So in other words, Hamas will not play along with any Israeli response that aims to restore the status quo ante?

Right. And in terms of escalation, the party to watch most closely is Hezbollah. If the Palestinian death toll rises, Hezbollah will be tempted to join the fray. They have 150,000 rockets they can rain down on Israel’s main cities, and that will lead to an all-out war not just in Gaza but in Lebanon, too. And everybody would get dragged in that situation.

I fear that Hamas’s intention is to get Israel to retaliate massively.

On the other side, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and the countries that signed the Abraham Accords with Israel—the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain—all have an interest in calming things down and getting a cease-fire, because the longer this goes on, the harder it will be for them to maintain their relations with Israel.

Will the current political instability in Israel affect decision-making there?

I think all of that falls by the wayside for now. This is a deep crisis of yet-unknown proportions. And the prime minister is facing a real problem, not only in defending the citizens, but in avoiding blame for what happened. And I don’t see how he can. So he’s got to find a way to redeem himself through the conflict. He cannot afford to have the extremist, far-right members of his coalition dictate what happens, because they will take Israel into a very bad place. So he has either got to exercise control over them, which he hasn’t been able to do yet, or he’s going to have to remove them. [Yair] Lapid, the leader of the opposition, today offered to join a narrow emergency government, which would include Netanyahu’s Likud party, Lapid’s party, and the party of [opposition leader] Benny Gantz. Netanyahu might just take that as a way of sidelining the extremists, showing responsibility, and bringing the country together.

It's remarkable that this is happening 50 years, almost to the day, after the surprise Arab attack on Israel that launched the 1973 Yom Kippur War.

It is remarkable—and it is no coincidence. Let’s remember that, for the Arabs, the Yom Kippur war was seen as a victory. Egypt and Syria succeeded in taking the Israeli military by surprise, succeeded in crossing the Suez Canal and advancing on the Golan Heights, to the point where many Israelis thought Israel was finished. And so even though, in the end, Israel prevailed in that war, the victory of the first days is still celebrated in the Arab world. So for Hamas to show, 50 years later, that it can do the same thing—that is a huge boost to its standing in the Arab world, and a huge challenge to those countries and leaders that have made place with Israel in the preceding 50 years. And it’s worth pointing out that Hamas is a very different adversary. In 1973, [Egyptian President] Anwar Sadat went to war with Israel in order to make peace with Israel. Hamas has launched a war to destroy Israel—or to do its best to weaken it, to take it down a peg. Hamas doesn’t have any interest in making peace with Israel.

It was hubris that led the Israelis to believe, in 1973, that they were unbeatable, that they were the superpower in the Middle East, that they no longer needed to pay attention to Egyptian and Syrian concerns because they were so powerful. That same hubris has manifested itself again in recent years, even as many people told the Israelis that the situation with the Palestinians was unsustainable. They thought the problem was under control. But now all their assumptions have been blown up, just like they were in 1973. And they’re going to have to come to terms with that.

Foreign Affairs · by October 7, 2023 · October 7, 2023

4. What the Hamas Attack Means for Israel – Netanyahu Has Nothing but Bad Options

On the other hand, if Hamas is destroyed there will be no requirement for deterrence.

Excerpts:

One of the biggest challenges for Israel will be how to restore deterrence—convincing Hamas and other enemies that they should not attack Israel again because the price they would pay would be too high—and how to do so in a way that is morally acceptable and ensures the support of other countries, especially the United States. Israeli officials will worry that a soft response to the current violence would encourage Hamas to strike again, and they will also be concerned that Hezbollah, Iran, and other foes would see Israel as weak.

The principle of proportionality in international law demands that Israel avoid excessive casualties and otherwise moderate its military response to focus on stopping the threat from Hamas. The logic of deterrence, on the other hand, often involves disproportionate casualties on the Palestinian side. Because Israel is highly sensitive to casualties, an equal exchange of deaths is, in Israeli eyes, a loss for their country. Indeed, Hamas, Hezbollah, and other so-called resistance groups pride themselves on being able to sacrifice more than Israel, believing the Jewish state is a “spider web” that appears strong from a distance but in reality is fragile. By this logic, deterrence requires casualty levels so high that even Hamas is daunted by them.

For deterrence to work in the long term, Hamas needs other options to maintain its political legitimacy, which rests on its opposition to Israel. Deterrence involves only dissuading an adversary from doing a hostile action it might otherwise do. But if the adversary believes that it has no choice, then deterrence is far harder. In theory, Israel could give Hamas more freedom to govern the Gaza Strip and offer it a greater role in Palestinian politics. These concessions might make Hamas even stronger, however, and a wrathful Israel is less likely than ever to be willing to take such chances.

What the Hamas Attack Means for Israel

Netanyahu Has Nothing but Bad Options

By Daniel Byman and Alexander Palmer

October 7, 2023

Foreign Affairs · by Daniel Byman and Alexander Palmer · October 7, 2023

As thousands of rockets rain down on Israel, lighting up the skyline of Tel Aviv and other cities, the country’s current priority is to defend its towns and military bases against Hamas’s sudden and devastating attacks from the Gaza Strip. Israel will try to root out the militants, prevent more infiltrators, and silence the rockets and mortars bombarding its people.

Given the scale of Hamas’s attacks and Israel’s surprise, none of these tasks will be easy. And even if Israel succeeds, it faces difficult choices on what to do next to ensure that Hamas is weakened and that such an attack does not recur. Israeli leaders need to reestablish deterrence against Hamas and other adversaries while preventing the spread of violence to the West Bank, protecting the country’s recent diplomatic gains, and managing an ongoing hostage situation.

THE GAZA DILEMMA

Perhaps the biggest question is what to do about the Gaza Strip. Since Hamas seized power in this Palestinian exclave in 2007, Israel has avoided large-scale, sustained ground operations there, despite calls by Israeli politicians for action during past crises. Indeed, in 2018, Israel’s defense minister, Avigdor Lieberman, resigned in protest when Israel negotiated a truce with Hamas. Israeli military leaders, however, rightly pointed out that trying to uproot Hamas from the Gaza Strip would be difficult. Hamas has deep ties there, running hospitals, mosques, schools, and youth groups, as well as the police.

Before the latest round of fighting, Israeli leaders could argue that occasional airstrikes and economic pressure kept Hamas off-balance, unable to pose a major threat to Israel. That argument will now hold little weight. Israel could continue to rain down fire on the Gaza Strip, but that would do little to shake Hamas’s hold on power. In addition, although international (and especially U.S.) opinion is now sympathetic to Israel, each day of bombing that passes without any major response from Hamas would erode international support for Israeli Defense Force operations.

In the short term, Israel could make some gains against Hamas by sending its military to occupy all or part of the Gaza Strip. By entering it, Israeli forces would disrupt Hamas’s control of the population. They could interrogate area Palestinians, arrest Hamas officials at all levels, and otherwise gain information. They could also kill or capture large numbers of lower-level Hamas members, destroy tunnels and caches of military materiel, and disrupt infiltration routes from the strip into Israel. All these steps would weaken Hamas and reduce the short-term threat to Israel.

But even if it succeeds at weakening Hamas, a ground incursion carries major risks. The area’s dense urban terrain poses a significant obstacle to Israeli ground forces and creates enormous potential for civilian casualties. The 2014 crisis, for example, resulted in the deaths of 66 Israeli soldiers, six Israeli civilians, and well over 2,000 Palestinians (mostly civilians), despite the fact that Israeli forces penetrated only a few miles into the Gaza Strip during Operation Protective Edge. Hamas has also dug tunnels in much of the territory, and it could use these to orchestrate sudden attacks and take more Israeli soldiers hostage—turning the current political disaster into an even bigger nightmare.

A return to anything approaching the status quo ante would look like a victory for Hamas.

Israel might also be able to supplant Hamas’s influence in the longer term if it could find other Palestinians to administer the Gaza Strip. But Israel lacks a credible political partner on the Palestinian side. Mahmoud Abbas, the leader of the Palestinian Authority, and his henchmen loathe Hamas, and they have brutally repressed it on the West Bank, but they lack significant political support among Palestinians. Widespread corruption, an aging and out-of-touch leadership, and years of collaboration with Israel have discredited the PA. What’s more, the PA leaders do not want to take power in the Gaza Strip by riding in on Israeli tanks, which would wipe out what little nationalist credentials they have left. All this means that a ground invasion that overthrows Hamas would leave Israel stuck administering the strip, forced to deal with its difficult economic situation and hostile population.

A long war in the Gaza Strip would also prove diplomatically disruptive for Israel. Israel is seeking to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia, and it was hoping that Riyadh would ask for only token concessions on the Palestinian issue. Saudi Arabia’s leadership might have taken such an approach when Palestine was on the back burner, hoping that public opinion in their own countries and the broader Muslim world would focus on other concerns. With violence raging, however, Saudi Arabia could not afford to look weak on this issue. A statement issued Saturday by the Saudi foreign ministry presages increased diplomatic troubles, blaming the current explosion of violence on Israel’s “continued occupation, the deprivation of the Palestinian people of their legitimate rights, and the repetition of systematic provocations against its sanctities.”

Yet for all these problems, Israeli leaders might still feel compelled to go in. The scale of this attack is so immense that a return to anything approaching the status quo ante would look like a victory for Hamas. Israeli politicians have a history of short-term thinking, and popular passions are riding high.

ALL QUIET ON THE WEST BANK

Israel will also seek to ensure that the West Bank remains relatively calm, especially if it mounts a ground incursion into Gaza. Previous Israeli military operations in the strip prompted large demonstrations in the West Bank. The West Bank is already in turmoil, with talk of a Third Intifada erupting. In both 2021 and 2022, the territory experienced high levels of violence, and 2023 is on track to be even worse, with nearly 200 Palestinians dying by Israeli hands there so far this year. Part of this uptick in violence is due to the weakness of the PA, but the expansion of Israeli settlements and the repeated pogroms carried out by their residents against ordinary Palestinians have added tremendously to the tension.

The violence emanating from the Hamas attacks from the Gaza Strip and the Israeli response adds fuel to the flames. Hamas’s success offers inspiration to already angry Palestinians, showing that they can make Israel pay a price. Even more important, the Israeli response will involve large numbers of Palestinian deaths (around 200 have died so far, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry, and the number will surely climb higher). This new round of violence will inflame Palestinian sentiment, even if Israelis and much of the international community believe that Hamas started the conflict.

Further frustrating Israel’s response is the problem of hostages. No one knows how many hostages Hamas has taken (and it may seize still more as long as its operatives are active), but Hamas claims it has taken “dozens.” Some of them might be smuggled back to Israel, whereas others may be held by Palestinian militants in Israel itself. The hostages give Hamas tremendous leverage and represent a nightmare for Israeli leaders. Although Israel’s special operations forces are highly skilled, even small mistakes can lead to the death of many innocents in a raid gone awry. Hostage-taking also results in an ongoing drama—“theater,” as the terrorism expert Brian Jenkins once put it—that keeps the issue on the front pages of newspapers, with terrified hostages, frightened families, and a sympathetic public all demanding action.

The hostages also complicate military operations. At a strategic level, Hamas can threaten the lives of hostages if Israel goes into the Gaza Strip or otherwise threatens Hamas’s hold on power. At a tactical level, the possible presence of Israeli hostages in buildings in the territory or in the hands of fighters makes operations far more difficult, as the risk of killing Israeli civilians or military personnel will be present in every Israeli military operation.

RESTORING DETERRENCE

One of the biggest challenges for Israel will be how to restore deterrence—convincing Hamas and other enemies that they should not attack Israel again because the price they would pay would be too high—and how to do so in a way that is morally acceptable and ensures the support of other countries, especially the United States. Israeli officials will worry that a soft response to the current violence would encourage Hamas to strike again, and they will also be concerned that Hezbollah, Iran, and other foes would see Israel as weak.

The principle of proportionality in international law demands that Israel avoid excessive casualties and otherwise moderate its military response to focus on stopping the threat from Hamas. The logic of deterrence, on the other hand, often involves disproportionate casualties on the Palestinian side. Because Israel is highly sensitive to casualties, an equal exchange of deaths is, in Israeli eyes, a loss for their country. Indeed, Hamas, Hezbollah, and other so-called resistance groups pride themselves on being able to sacrifice more than Israel, believing the Jewish state is a “spider web” that appears strong from a distance but in reality is fragile. By this logic, deterrence requires casualty levels so high that even Hamas is daunted by them.

For deterrence to work in the long term, Hamas needs other options to maintain its political legitimacy, which rests on its opposition to Israel. Deterrence involves only dissuading an adversary from doing a hostile action it might otherwise do. But if the adversary believes that it has no choice, then deterrence is far harder. In theory, Israel could give Hamas more freedom to govern the Gaza Strip and offer it a greater role in Palestinian politics. These concessions might make Hamas even stronger, however, and a wrathful Israel is less likely than ever to be willing to take such chances.

• DANIEL BYMAN is a Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a professor at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service.
• ALEXANDER PALMER is a Research Associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Foreign Affairs · by Daniel Byman and Alexander Palmer · October 7, 2023

5.  Israel Under Attack by Hamas | SOF News

Israel Under Attack by Hamas | SOF News

sof.news · by SOF News · October 7, 2023

Hamas terrorists crossed Israel’s border from the Gaza Strip (CIA Map) by land (including tunnels), sea, and air (hang gliders) to conduct surprise multipronged attacks against military and civilian targets in central and southern Israel early on Saturday, 7 October 9 (about 0630 Israeli time).

Hamas Attack on Israel

Sequence of Attack. The complex attack, named ‘Operation Al-Aqsa Flood’ by Hamas, began with a massive rocket, missile, and mortar barrage – thousands of launches. This was followed by a denial-of-service attacks (Strike Source) in Israel. Hamas then infiltrated across the border into Israel by air, sea, and land. Hang gliders, small boats, tunnels, and trucks were used. The rocket attacks continued throughout the day. The terrorist group also used drones to attack Israeli targets.

Extent of Attack. Hamas, numbering about 1,000, entered about 22 Israeli towns located along the border, taking temporary control of some of those communities. By Sunday most of these areas have been retaken by Israeli forces. Israeli casualties are steep, with hundreds dead and over 1,000 wounded. By Sunday morning the estimates of Israeli dead approached 600. As many as 260 may have been killed at a ‘Musical Festival for Peace’ (The Washington Post, Oct 8, 2023) that was held near the Gaza border in Southern Israel; and several hostages taken to Gaza.

Rockets. Thousands of rockets and mortar rounds were launched from the Gaza Strip into Israel attacking military and civilian targets. Hamas claims to have launched over 5,000 munitions into Israel. It is reported that the Iron Dome missile defense system has been effective but perhaps not able to handle the volume of rocket and mortar attacks in a concentrated time frame. Apparently, Hamas has been able to effectively use drones against Israeli tanks.

Hostages. Civilians and military members, estimated to be over one hundred, have been taken hostage and are now in the Gaza Strip (CIA Factbook). Many of the hostages are women and children. Among the hostages are German, UK, American, and Russian citizens. According to a Palestinian spokesman one of the goals of the Hamas operation in Israel was to take hostages. The rationale was to exchange the Israeli hostages for Palestinians in Israeli prisons and to deter Israeli ground operations in the Gaza Strip. The IDF says it has established a headquarters to focus on putting together accurate information on the Israeli hostages held by Hamas in the Gaza Strip. It has appointed Brigadier General Gal Hirsch to oversee the missing persons file. Israel has requested assistance from Egypt to help negotiate the release of the hostages.

Ongoing Fighting. The battles on Israeli territory in communities along the border of Gaza continued on Sunday. (map Twitter) Israeli residents remain in shelters in many communities waiting on the arrival of Israeli forces.

Assistance to Hamas. Various news reports indicate that Iran and Hezbollah provided significant assistance to Hamas in the form of advice, intelligence, planning, and support. (Wall Street Journal, October 8, 2023) (subscription)

Israeli Response

Intelligence Failure. Apparently, this massive attack by Hamas was not expected by the Israelis and some national security observers are calling it an intelligence failure. Just last week Biden’s National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan stated that “The Middle East Region is quieter today than it has been in two decades”. (The Atlantic, Oct 7, 2023) The attack was launched on the 50th anniversary of the 1973 War in which Arab states attacked Israel on Yom Kippur – the holiest day of the Jewish calendar. At the time of this current attack the Israelis were celebrating Simchat Torah, coming at the end of the weeklong Sukkot Festival. The IDF over the past few years have repositioned IDF battalions from the border along the Gaza Strip to the ‘territories’ – protecting settlers in the West Bank. (CIA Map) Instead, it relied on ‘hi-tech’ monitoring of the Gaza Strip border with sensors, cameras, and fencing.

Israeli Actions and Retaliation. Israel has declared war on Hamas and has called up many of the reserve Israeli Defense Forces. At 1200 noon (Israel time) on Saturday, October 7th it launched operation “Swords of Iron” (IDF, icon). Aerial, land, and sea attacks by Israel commenced against military targets in the Gaza Strip. There are reports that Israel has closed the border crossings with Jordan. Schools in many parts of Israel (if not all) have been temporarily closed. Israeli residents in areas along the Gaza Strip border area are being evacuated. The country is currently under a curfew. Some flights into and out of Israel have been cancelled. Ben Gurion International Airport (FlightAware map) is experiencing flight cancellations and delays.

Announcements by Israeli Government. The Security Cabinet announced that the supply of fuel, electricity, and other goods to the Gaza Strip will be stopped. Israel has interrupted electrical service to the Gaza Strip. About 63% of the electricity for the Gaza Strip comes from Israel, 14% from Egypt, and 23% is self-generated (Twitter). On Saturday night Israel announced the Declaration of War. The State Security Cabinet of Israel approved and ratified the Declaration of War (Article 40 Aleph) against Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad. This is the first time since the 1973 Yon Kipper War that Israel has declared war.

Attacks on Gaza. The Israelis will likely attempt to completely destruct the military and governmental capabilities of Hamas and other militant Palestinian organizations in the Gaza Strip. Israel has provided civilians in Gaza with very specific evacuation instructions (Twitter) – telling them to move deeper into the Gaza Strip in designated areas due to ongoing and future military operations.

Israelis Strike Terrorist Targets. The IDF announced (Oct 8) that it had struck ten Hamas terrorist organization targets. These targets were located in multi-story buildings in the Gaza Strip. In addition, two banks used by Hamas were hit – the Islamic National Bank and the First Bank. Other targets that stored weapons and military equipment were also struck in Gaza. According to the Jerusalem Post (Oct 8) the IDF has conducted 500 airstrikes (Twitter) in the Gaza Strip by mid-day Sunday.

IDF Spokesperson Briefing. A member of the Israeli Defense Forces presented a 11-minute briefing (IDF Twitter) on the evening of 11 Oct 2023 on the situation. He states that hundreds of Hamas terrorists crossed over into Israel, executed civilians, and took Israelis captive. These captives are now held hostage by Hamas in Gaza.

Reserve Callup. Reservists are being mobilized and military units are being sent to the border with the Gaza Strip. Israelis who are in reserve military status living overseas are receiving phone calls calling them up for service.

International Response

International Reaction. Most nations are condemning the Hamas assault on Israel. Predictably, some countries are applauding the attack – Iran, of course, being one of them as well as several other Arab nations. National security observers are calling for the reoccupation of the Gaza strip (Middle East Forum) and disarming of Hamas. In Alexandria, Egypt, a policeman opened fire on a tourist group. Two Israelis and one Egyptian were killed.

U.S. Reaction. The U.S. Department of State has condemned (DoS) “. . . the appalling attacks by Hamas terrorists against Israel . . .” President Joe Biden issued a statement (White House, Oct 7, 2023) condemning the terrorist attacks. The U.S. has announced a security alert (DoS, Oct 7, 2023) for Israel and designated the Gaza Strip as a ‘Do Not Travel‘ area. (DoS Map) The U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem says that all diplomatic and military personnel in Israel are safe and accounted for. DoS has issued a ‘shelter in place’ advisory for diplomatic staff and American nationals.

And Hezbollah? There are concerns that Israel may soon be involved in hostilities along its northern border with Lebanon. Hezbollah announced that it has fired mortars into the Mount Dov (Google Maps) area of Israel from southern Lebanon. This location has a long-range radar installation used to detect and track missiles and rockets launched from Lebanon and Syria. The Israelis have responded with artillery fire and airstrikes against Hezbollah targets. Patriot missile systems (NSI) have been used to intercept incoming missiles from Lebanon. Some press reports say that several IDF bases have been hit with mortar and missile attacks coming from southern Lebanon. Iran is a strong supporter of Hezbollah and will likely provide assistance to the group in its operations against Israel. Israel has begun preparations in the event evacuations from areas near the Lebanon border are required. Israeli military units are reinforcing its northern border area. Israeli tanks, including the Merkava Mark III (Wikipedia) and IV as well as self-propelled artillery, are deploying to the northern border area.

And the Peace Talks? The White House had been working on an Israel-Saudi deal – acting as a third-party peace broker. With this ongoing conflict this effort will likely come to a screeching halt. There is the likelihood that Iran and Hamas saw the ongoing peace talks as a threat – as it was an attempt to isolate them in the international community. Part of the deal had Israel making concessions to the Palestinian Authority – an enemy of Hamas. So, Hamas striking Israel at this time could be a desire to disrupt the peace talks deal. There is also the likelihood that Russia has encouraged Hamas; certainly, the conflict in Israel-Gaza Strip will divert attention away from the Ukraine conflict.

Background Information

Hamas Rule in Gaza. The origins of this terrorist group, the Islamic Resistance Movement, date back to 1987. It is an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. In 2007 it took power in the Gaza Strip – a small area of land with a population of about two million.

History of the Gaza Strip. This land area has been inhabited since the 15th century B.C and has been dominated by many different peoples and empires throughout it history. It was part of the Ottoman Empire from the 16th century until the end of World War I. It became part of the British Mandate of Palestine after World War I. Egypt began administering the Gaza Strip following the 1948 Arab Israeli War. During the Six-Day war in 1967 it was captured by Israel. In the late 1990s Israel transferred many of the Palestinian-populated areas to the newly created Palestinian Authority (PA). In 2005 Israel unilaterally withdrew all of its settlers and military from the Gaza Strip.

**********

References:

Gaza Strip – CIA Fact Book

https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/gaza-strip/

Israel Palestine Interactive Map – With Battle Event Notations

https://israelpalestine.liveuamap.com/

Map – GeoConfirmed Israel

https://geoconfirmed.org/israel

IDF Real Time Operational Updates

https://www.idf.il/en/

U.N. Relief and Works Agency (Palestine)

https://www.unrwa.org/

IDF Twitter Feeds

@IDF and @IAFsite

sof.news · by SOF News · October 7, 2023

6. How Hamas Outfoxed Israel's Iron Dome, A Nearly Impenetrable Air Defence

Video at the link: https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/israel-palestine-hamas-gaza-iron-dome-how-israel-defends-its-skies-from-rocket-attacks-4460636

​This is more like the north Korean senior for attacking Seoul and why an Iron Dome system would likely not be effective in Korea.

"Quantity has a quality all its own."

How Hamas Outfoxed Israel's Iron Dome, A Nearly Impenetrable Air Defence

Air raid sirens across Israel shattered the morning silence and the Iron Dome system, one of the best air defence systems in the world, was again in action.

World News

Edited by Divyam Sharma

Updated: October 08, 2023 4:07 pm IST

ndtv.com · by Divyam Sharma

The air defence system has a range of approximately 70 km.

New Delhi:

Israel is at war following an unprecedented attack by the Hamas group. Over 5,000 rockets were fired towards Israel from the Hamas-controlled Gaza Strip in just 20 minutes after it declared Operation Al-Aqsa Flood.

Air raid sirens across Israel shattered the morning silence and the Iron Dome system, one of the best air defence systems in the world, was again in action. In dramatic visuals, the Iron Dome destroyed rockets mid-air and the sky was illuminated with bursts of flares. This time, however, the scale of the attack was unprecedented.

What is the Iron Dome system?

The Iron Dome system is a ground-to-air short-range air defence system deployed in several parts of the country to counter rocket attacks, mortars, artillery shells, and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) at short range.

The air defence system has a range of approximately 70 km and has three central components that form a unit, namely; Detection and Tracking radar, Battle Management and Weapons Control and the Missile Launcher armed with 20 Tamir Missiles.

The system has guarded Israel since 2011. During the 2006 Lebanon conflict, thousands of rockets were fired by Hezbollah and several northern areas including Haifa were attacked, killing many. The 2006 attacks prompted Israel to develop its own air defence system.

How Iron Dome Works?

When a rocket is fired toward Israel, the Detection and Tracking radar detects the incoming trajectory and relays the information to the weapons control system, which performs fast, complex calculations to detect the trajectory, speed and expected target of the rocket.

If the incoming rocket is directed towards a populated area or a strategic establishment, the launcher automatically fires the Tamir Missile and the rocket is destroyed mid-air to neutralize the threat. A single battery consists of three-four launchers and Israel has at least 10. The manufacturer of the Iron Dome system - Rafael Advanced Defence System claims it has a success rate of 90 per cent and has over 2,000 interceptions till now.

What Happened This Time?

The near-perfect air defence system found itself overpowered after a barrage of rockets from Hamas. For several years, the terrorist group, Hamas, has been trying to find a weakness in the Iron Dome system. They have been largely successful in doing so by overwhelming the system with a Salvo rocket attack (multiple rockets launched in a short span of time), making it difficult for the control system to intercept all targets. This time, over 5,000 rockets were launched in just 20 minutes.

Hamas is continuously developing its crude rocket technology and over the years it has increased its range to cover major cities of Israel including Tel Aviv and even Jerusalem.

A rocket launched by Hamas is much cheaper than the Tamir missile fired to intercept it. For Israel, the Iron Dome's worth extends its cost analysis. It has proven itself in the past that it can neutralise targets and save lives.

During a conflict with Hamas in 2012, Israel claimed that 85 per cent of the 400 rockets fired from the Gaza Strip, toward civilian and strategic areas, were countered.

Promoted

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During the 2014 conflict, over 4,500 rockets were fired by Hamas over several days. Over 800 were intercepted and around 735 were shot down, a success rate of 90 per cent.

Upgrade and 2021 Attacks

In 2021, Israel said it had upgraded the system to cope with additional aerial threats including successful interceptions of rocket and missile salvos as well as simultaneous interceptions of multiple unmanned aerial vehicles.

In May 2021, the two-week-long Israel-Palestine conflict, over 1,000 rockets were fired in the initial days and over 4,500 during the entire conflict. During the crisis, officials said the system showed a 90 per cent strike rate against rockets.

ndtv.com · by Divyam Sharma

7. ‘There Were Terrorists Inside’: How Hamas’s Attack on Israel Unfolded

‘There Were Terrorists Inside’: How Hamas’s Attack on Israel Unfolded

By Patrick Kingsley, Aaron Boxerman and Gabby Sobelman

The reporters interviewed 13 survivors and witnesses of the violence in Israel on Saturday.

Oct. 8, 2023, 4:02 p.m. ET

The New York Times · by Gabby Sobelman · October 8, 2023

Palestinian militants from Gaza raided Israel on Saturday, killing and abducting hundreds. Survivors have begun to recount the most complex attack on their territory in half a century.

Cars damaged in an attack by Hamas gunmen are seen on a road in Sderot, Israel, on Sunday.Credit...Tamir Kalifa for The New York Times

The reporters interviewed 13 survivors and witnesses of the violence in Israel on Saturday.

Oct. 8, 2023, 4:02 p.m. ET

The thousands of young Israelis had spent the night dancing at an outdoor rave, many clad in tie-dye T-shirts and crop tops.

They ended the night in a massacre.

Just after dawn on Saturday, hundreds of Palestinian militants bulldozed their way through the barricades between Gaza and Israel, drove into scores of Israeli towns along the border and sped through the farmland where the rave was reaching its sunrise climax.

The militants gunned down more than 100 ravers and abducted others, according to two senior Israeli officials, as they sprinted through the open fields. Video verified by The New York Times showed militants driving off on a motorcycle with an Israeli woman squeezed between them, screaming as her boyfriend was marched off on foot, his arm wrenched behind his back.

Those who survived often did so by hiding in nearby bushes, some of them for hours.

Bullets whistled overhead and shots resounded all around, said Andrey Peairie, 35, one of the survivors. He described crawling up to the top of a nearby hill to get a better sense of what was happening.

“Smoke and flames and gunfire,” said Mr. Peairie, a tech worker. “I have a military background, but I never was in a situation like this.”

Israeli soldiers search for remaining Hamas gunmen from Gaza in a residential neighborhood in Sderot, near where gunmen had taken over a police station.Credit...Tamir Kalifa for The New York Times

So began one of the bloodiest weekends in Israeli and Palestinian history, the full details of which started to emerge on Sunday as survivors recounted the most complex and brazen attack on their nation since the 1973 Arab-Israeli war.

About 700 Israelis were killed and at least 150 taken hostage by Palestinian militants, according to a preliminary assessment shared by a senior Israeli military official. Videos circulated of children and grandparents abducted from their homes in Israel and roadsides strewn with dead bodies.

The assault, staggering in its scale, prompted a fierce counterattack from Israel that has killed at least 413 Gazans in missile strikes and gun battles, according to Gazan health officials.

The violence began familiarly enough — with rocket fire from Gaza, just after dawn.

Amir Tibon and his neighbors in Kibbutz Nahal Oz, a village that stands a few hundred yards from Gaza, have become accustomed to frequent rocket fire from militants.

Tali Touito was overwhelmed with emotion at her home in Sderot on Sunday as she described how Hamas gunmen attacked and took over the police station on her street and the gunfight that followed.Credit...Tamir Kalifa for The New York Times

Bomb shelters are installed in every home in the kibbutz, and residents are used to rushing inside them every few weeks.

But soon after Mr. Tibon, 35, took shelter on Saturday with his wife and two young daughters, he knew that there was something very different about this attack.

The sound of gunfire.

Then came a morbid realization.

“There were terrorists inside the kibbutz, inside our neighborhood and — at some point — outside our window,” Mr. Tibon recalled. “We could hear them talk. We could hear them run. We could hear them shooting their guns at our house, at our windows.”

On the village WhatsApp group, neighbors were posting frantic messages. “People were saying, ‘They are in my house, they are trying to break into the safe room!’” recalled Mr. Tibon, a journalist for Haaretz, one of the country’s most prominent news outlets.

Messages from fellow reporters revealed even more terrifying news. They said that Hamas, the militant group that controls Gaza, had infiltrated scores of Israeli border towns, and that it would take time for the Israeli Army to reach the village.

Not long afterward, Mr. Tibon’s cell reception started to break up.

Thirteen miles to the east, deep inside Israeli territory, Meitav Hadad and her brother Itamar had no idea that Israel had been invaded.

The siblings had switched their phones off for the Jewish Sabbath.

Suddenly, shots rang out in their neighborhood of Ofakim, a small city of 33,000 residents in southern Israel.

Gabriel Trigun, taking cover as a rockets launched from Gaza were intercepted by the Iron Dome air defense system in Sderot, on Sunday.Credit...Tamir Kalifa for The New York Times

Mr. Hadad, 22, an off-duty soldier, grabbed his rifle and rushed into the street. Ms. Hadad, 18, a student at a religious seminary, followed him.

They expected perhaps a single shooter, the kind of lone-wolf attacker that frequently targets Israeli civilians, Ms. Hadad said.

But what they found was far more shocking: A squad of Palestinian militants, armed with rifles and a shoulder-born rocket launcher, had infiltrated their quiet neighborhood, miles from the border with Gaza.

“We didn’t understand what was happening,” Ms. Hadad said.

Terrified, she hid in a playground.

But her brother pressed on, joining forces with two other armed residents, cellphone video showed. He began firing on the militants, hitting two, before his gun jammed, forcing him to take cover, he said.

As he retreated, the militants shot him three times — once in the liver, once in the leg and the third time in the back.

He was losing blood fast, with nowhere to hide.

Desperate for shelter, he began hobbling from house to house, trying to persuade residents to take him inside, Mr. Hadad said. No one dared to open up, fearing he was himself a Palestinian fighter.

Israeli tanks, on their way to the border with Gaza on Sunday, passed through an area in Sderot that had been attacked by Hamas gunmen.Credit...Tamir Kalifa for The New York Times

To make himself seem less menacing, he stashed his gun in a fuse box. Finally, a couple opened their door and hurried him inside. The three of them stemmed his wounds by tearing up his jeans and using them as a tourniquet, his sister said.

As Israeli security forces began to retake control of the town, two police officers arrived to take Mr. Hadad to hospital. They heaved him back to the street, flagging down a passing car.

By coincidence, it was Mr. Hadad’s mother, Tali.

After he had failed to return home, the elder Ms. Hadad had broken her observance of the Sabbath and borrowed a neighbor’s car to search for her son.

Now, she was there to rescue him.

Fifty miles to the north, Mr. Tibon’s parents, Noam and Gali Tibon, also set out to rescue their family — leaving their home in Tel Aviv, jumping into their jeep and heading south.

Destination: Kibbutz Nahal Oz.

The couple had just a single pistol to protect them, Noam Tibon said. But they were not going to stand by while their family was in danger.

“We understood that if we will not go and get them, nobody will,” said Noam Tibon, a retired general. “If there are so many terrorists inside Nahal Oz, something has collapsed.”

As they drove south, the couple began to encounter police roadblocks, where officers ordered them to turn around.

“We said, ‘Listen, we have kids and grandkids in danger,’” Noam Tibon said. “And we just pushed forward.”

As they neared the Gaza border, they began to encounter revelers fleeing the rave, sprinting down the road, blood staining their clothes. The couple gave them a lift to a nearby city. The roadside and nearby farmland were strewn with dead bodies, Noam Tibon said.

An infant sleeping in a dining room in Kibbutz Mishmar HaNegev on Sunday after being rescued with a family that was hiding in a house in Kibbutz Kfar.Credit...Avishag Shaar-Yashuv for The New York Times

A few miles from Kibbutz Nahal Oz, Noam left Ms. Tibon at a less dangerous location before traveling onward with a wounded soldier they had encountered on the road.

But before they reached the village, they ran into a gunfight between Israeli soldiers and Palestinian militants. The two men jumped out and joined the fray.

Mr. Tibon said he then ferried two wounded Israelis to safety, handing them and his jeep over to his wife, a historian, who drove them north to the hospital.

Mr. Tibon headed south again, given a lift by a friend, another former general, whom he said he had run into by chance.

On the outskirts of Kibbutz Nahal Oz, he said, they joined forces with an Israeli commando unit that was about to try to retake the village.

After heading inside, they found the streets strewn with bodies, some Palestinian and some Israeli, Noam Tibon said.

Then they began clearing the village of militants, house by house.

Inside their safe room, Amir Tibon and his family could hear them coming.

An hour later, there was a bang on the wall of their bomb shelter, Amir Tibon said.

“And we heard my father say, ‘I’m here.’”

Myra Noveck contributed reporting from Jerusalem; Hiba Yazbek from Nazareth, Israel; and Ronen Bergman from Ramat Hasharon, Israel.

Patrick Kingsley is the Jerusalem bureau chief, covering Israel and the occupied territories. He has reported from more than 40 countries, written two books and previously covered migration and the Middle East for The Guardian. More about Patrick Kingsley

The New York Times · by Gabby Sobelman · October 8, 2023

8. Iran Update, October 8, 2023

IRAN UPDATE, OCTOBER 8, 2023

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-october-8-2023

Oct 8, 2023 - ISW Press

Iran Update, October 8, 2023

Johanna Moore and Ashka Jhaveri

The Iran Update provides insights into Iranian and Iranian-sponsored activities abroad that undermine regional stability and threaten US forces and interests. It also covers events and trends that affect the stability and decision-making of the Iranian regime. The Critical Threats Project (CTP) at the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provides these updates weekly on Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. For more on developments in Iran and the region, see our interactive map of Iran and the Middle East.

Palestinian militias in Gaza responded to calls from Hamas to join in fighting against Israeli security forces on October 8. Hamas and its militant wing, Al Qassem Brigade, called on fellow Palestinian militias and members of the Axis of Resistance to join in its fight against Israel on October 7 following its ground incursion into Israel from Gaza.[1] Palestinian militias quickly pledged their support in fighting against Israeli security forces and clashed with Israeli security forces at border points and within Israeli territory.[2] Most clashes between Palestinian militias and Israeli security forces have been concentrated in southern Israel with Hamas reporting that it rotated new forces into Israeli territory to continue the fight against Israeli security forces on October 8.[3]

• The Al Qassem Brigade clashed with Israeli security forces in Sufa Kibbuts, Holeit Kibbuts, Ofakim, Sderot, Yad Mordechai, Kfar Azza, Kissufim, Be’eri military post, and Ezre in southern Israel on October 7 and 8.[4] The brigade also conducted two separate rocket attacks on Sderot and Ashkelon of 100 rockets each, according to the group’s Telegram channel.[5] Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) also fought against Israeli security forces with the Al Qassem Brigade in several towns in southern Israel.[6]
• PIJ backfilled Hamas’s Al Qassem Brigade in Israel’s South District on October 8, which allowed the Al Qassem Brigade fighters to rest and refit. Hamas Spokesperson Abu Ubaida reported that Hamas rotated new forces into Israeli territory to continue the fight against Israeli security forces in a statement on October 8.[7] The Al Qassem Brigade appears to be the most active Palestinian militia operating in the vicinity of Gaza.
• Non-Iranian affiliated Palestinian militias also supported the offensive. The Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade conducted rocket strikes into Israeli territory on October 8.[8] The brigade previously coordinated attacks with Hamas and PIJ in 2008.[9] The Popular Resistance Committees’ military wing claimed it used one-way attack drones to attack Israeli targets.[10] ISW cannot independently verify either group’s claim.

Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) and Palestinian militias also conducted attacks on Israeli positions from south Lebanon and the West Bank, respectively, which could expand the war to a second front. Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh claimed on October 7 that the Al Aqsa Flood Operation began in Gaza and will extend to the West Bank.[11] That the Axis of Resistance coordinated the operation with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and through a Palestinian joint operations room suggests that LH and the Palestinian militants planned to open a second front.[12] Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant warned on April 20 that a multi-front war with Iran and its proxies was more likely than limited conflict and emphasized the threat of a simultaneous attack.[13]

• The Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade reported that its fighters clashed with Israeli security forces on October 7 in Bat Hefer, Hefer Valley Regional Council, Central District.[14] Bat Hefer is located within Israeli territory, bordering the West Bank.
• Unspecified Palestinian fighters clashed with Israeli security forces on October 7 at the Salem checkpoint, Darwish Salem, Haifa District. Salem checkpoint is one of the checkpoints leading from Israel to Jenin in the northern West Bank.[15] Unspecified Palestinian fighters targeted an Israeli military outpost on October 8 in Hebron in the southern West Bank.[16]
• LH conduced an artillery and guided missile strike into Shebaa Farms on October 8. Shebaa Farms is recognized as disputed territory between Israel, Lebanon, and Syria.[17]LH stated that it was not a neutral party in the current conflict and claimed that its strike on Shebaa Farms was on its path to “liberate what remains of occupied Lebanese land.”[18] The strikes hit a radar site and two unspecified positions in Zabdin and Ruwaisat at Shebaa Farms.[19]

[1] https://t.me/hamasps/16296 ; https://hamas dot ps/ar/post/18200/%D9%87%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%85%D8%B9%D8%B1%D9%83%D8%A9-%D8%B7%D9%88%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D9%82%D8%B5%D9%89-%D8%A8%D8%AF%D8%A3%D8%AA-%D9%85

[2] https://twitter.com/ajmubasher/status/1710666392855294186 ; https://t.me/sarayaps/16170 ; http://www dot tasnimnews.com/fa/news/1402/07/15/2967430

[3] https://t.me/hamasps/16360

[4] https://t.me/qassambrigades/28377 ; https://t.me/qassambrigades/28372

[5] https://t.me/qassambrigades/28387 ; https://t.me/qassambrigades/28380

[6] https://t.me/sarayaps/16185 ; https://t.me/sarayaps/16187

[7] https://t.me/hamasps/16360

[8] https://t.me/AymanGouda/5672; https://t.me/AymanGouda/5673

[9] https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/al-aqsa-martyrs-brigade

[10] https://twitter.com/JoeTruzman/status/1711062944455479436

[11] https://hamas (dot) ps/ar/post/18200/%D9%87%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%85%D8%B9%D8%B1%D9%83%D8%A9-%D8%B7%D9%88%D9%81%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D9%82%D8%B5%D9%89-%D8%A8%D8%AF%D8%A3%D8%AA-%D9%85

[12] https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-israel-hamas-strike-planning-bbe07b25; https://www (dot) almayadeen.net/news/politics/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AC%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%AF-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D8%B3%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%8A:-%D9%86%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%83-%D9%85%D8%B4%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%83%D8%A9-%D8%AD%D8%B2%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%84%D9%87-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%88%D9%85-%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B9%D8%B1%D9%83%D8%A9-%D9%85%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%A9

[13] https://www.timesofisrael (dot) com/gallant-warns-multi-front-war-far-more-likely-for-israel-than-limited-conflicts/

[14] https://t.me/AymanGouda/5662

[15] https://t.me/mihwar_almuqawama/34138

[16] https://twitter.com/QudsNen/status/1711105841883996595

[17] https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-strikes-lebanon-after-h...

[18] https://www (dot) almayadeen.net/news/politics/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AC%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%AF-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D8%B3%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%8A:-%D9%86%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%83-%D9%85%D8%B4%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%83%D8%A9-%D8%AD%D8%B2%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%84%D9%87-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%88%D9%85-%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B9%D8%B1%D9%83%D8%A9-%D9%85%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%A9

[19] https://www (dot) almayadeen.net/news/politics/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AC%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%AF-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D8%B3%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%8A:-%D9%86%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%83-%D9%85%D8%B4%D8%A7%D8%B1%D9%83%D8%A9-%D8%AD%D8%B2%D8%A8-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%84%D9%87-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%8A%D9%88%D9%85-%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%B9%D8%B1%D9%83%D8%A9-%D9%85%D8%B3%D8%AA%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%A9

9. Ukraine "running rings" around Russia amid Crimea wins: Ex-general

Ukraine "running rings" around Russia amid Crimea wins: Ex-general

Newsweek · by David Brennan · October 8, 2023

Russia's weakened military appears unable to deal with Ukraine's multi-theater offensive effort, according to a former commander of U.S. Army Europe, with Kyiv's varied attacks wreaking havoc in in southern Ukraine, Crimea, and even within Russian borders.

Retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges told Newsweek in an interview that the "Ukrainian General Staff is running rings around the Russian General Staff" as both sides look to make gains before the mud and freezing conditions of fall and winter set in.

Recent months have seen an intensification of small drone attacks across western Russia, several even reaching Moscow and causing damage in the capital. Meanwhile, major strikes on occupied Crimea have become commonplace, as naval drones and advanced cruise missiles target key defensive and naval facilities.

All the while, Ukrainian troops in southeastern Ukraine have been pressing the counteroffensive that has been underway since early June. Kyiv's ground forces are yet to rend a decisive hole in Russia's defensive lines as they seek to collapse the so-called "land corridor" of occupied territory linking Crimea to western Russia.

A Ukrainian soldier is pictured while on maneuvers in the Kreminna Forest on September 24, 2023 near Kreminna, Luhansk region. Ukrainian forces have been on the offensive in the southeast of the country since June, while those in the northeast have been defending against a Russian attack. Libkos/Getty Images

The success or failure of the operation could prove decisive in shaping the war, with more skeptical observers citing the offensive's slow progress as a signal that the conflict is freezing over, perhaps necessitating fresh peace talks with the Kremlin.

Sevastopol Exodus

In Crimea and the Black Sea, at least, Kyiv is being buoyed by cascading successes. Ukrainian commandos have been raiding the peninsula and engaging Russian troops and facilities there, while other Ukrainian forces seek and destroy valuable radar and air defense sites protecting Crimea's strategic jewels.

Among those is Sevastopol, the home of the beleaguered Black Sea Fleet and the crux of Russian power on the peninsula. In past weeks, Ukraine—which has no conventional navy and a limited air force—has badly damaged two more Russian vessels, including a Kilo-class submarine, and destroyed the Black Sea Fleet headquarters.

Recent satellite images suggest the bulk of the fleet and the ships carrying Moscow's prized Kalibr cruise missiles have relocated out of Sevastopol. This is an apparent admission that Russian-occupied Crimea—sometimes referred to as Moscow's "floating aircraft carrier" in the Black Sea—is not as formidable as once thought.

"It remains to be confirmed, but if the Black Sea Fleet is having to leave Sevastopol now because they realize that they are so vulnerable to long-range precision weapons that they can't stay there, this is really impressive," Hodges—long a proponent of Ukrainian liberation of Crimea regardless of Western skepticism—said.

"But it also shows the benefit of having the long-range precision weapons that can hit the facilities at Sevastopol, the air base at Saki, the logistics hub at Dzhankoy."

Newsweek has contacted the Russian Defense Ministry by email to request comment.

Moscow has problems within its own internationally recognized borders, too. "You've got these drones that have been hitting targets throughout Russia," Hodges said. "Each of these causes the Russian commercial airports to have to shut down operations, which has an economic impact as well as psychological.

"And then we read about cyberattacks that are shutting down airports all over Russia. What you see is enormous pressure on the Russian General Staff and on their air defense systems."

Crimea or Bust

Crimea appears the ultimate strategic goal for Kyiv. President Volodymyr Zelensky has already vowed that the war will end in Crimea, the same place it began with the arrival of Moscow's "little green men" in 2014.

Western partners have expressed doubt given tactical challenges posed by liberating Crimea. Some have even warned that a Ukrainian attack on the peninsula might prompt a Russian nuclear escalation given its importance in President Vladimir Putin's neo-tsarist mythmaking.

But Kyiv appears undeterred. "There are no 'new territories of Russia' or 'annexed territories' and there is no chance that Russia will be able to retain control over them," Mykhailo Podolyak—an adviser to the head of Zelensky's office—wrote on social media last month. "There is only the territory of Ukraine, including Crimea."

Hodges has long been pushing Western partners—the White House in particular—to explicitly commit to the liberation of Crimea. "Part of the problem is that people just can't imagine that Russia could actually lose Crimea," he said.

"If you pick up a map and look at it, you see immediately why Crimea is the decisive terrain of the war. Ukraine will never be able to rebuild their economy as long as Russia occupies Crimea, because all of their ports on the Black Sea will be blocked or easily disrupted. That's unacceptable for the Ukrainians."

Lieutenant General (Retired) Ben Hodges (L) is pictured during GLOBSEC's 2023 Bratislava Forum in Bratislava, Slovakia on May 30, 2023. Hodges has repeatedly urged Western governments to send advanced precision weapons to Ukraine. MICHAL CIZEK/AFP via Getty Images

"They're not trying to push back along the whole line. They don't need to. Once Crimea has been liberated, the Russians don't care about Donbas except for the 'land bridge' part. They haven't done a thing in 10 years to improve one farm in that whole damn place."

Many of the most punishing Ukrainian strikes since mid-June—including those chasing the Black Sea Fleet out of Sevastopol—have relied on foreign technology. British-French Storm Shadow/SCALP cruise missiles in particular, have proved a serious challenge for the Russians.

Kyiv will need more advanced Western technology to keep up its offensive tempo. Recent political developments in the U.S. and European Union, though, raise the prospect that funds and arms might dry up if the war continues. Much will hinge on the U.S. presidential election next year, and on the ability of EU nations to supercharge military industries that appear anemic in the face of full-scale conflict.

"I try to focus on capability instead of specific platforms, because if you talk about specific platforms you can come up with all kinds of excuses," Hodges said, in a nod to the continued American and German refusals to provide the long-range MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System and Taurus cruise missile, respectively.

"I don't care if these things are dropped by storks, the point is that if the Ukrainians have long range precision capability, they can hit every bit of the logistics, maintenance, refueling, ammunition in Sevastopol," Hodges said. "That's what Ukrainians are doing with a combination of drones and now Storm Shadow. Of course, you need a lot of these things."

"Whenever I heard somebody from the Pentagon say: 'The Ukrainians don't need those, they're not part of the offensive,' [I think] these are people that have no idea what they're talking about. They don't understand what the Ukrainians are trying to do. They're thinking very linearly. It's astounding to me."

A view taken on October 11, 2022 shows the Kerch Strait Bridge that links Crimea to Russia, near Kerch. Crimea is the crux of the nine-year war between Moscow and Kyiv, and a symbol of Kremlin control over the occupied peninsula.

Newsweek · by David Brennan · October 8, 2023

10. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 8, 2023

Maps/graphics/citations: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-8-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Russia advanced legal mechanisms to form the Leningrad Military District as part of ongoing large-scale military reforms.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and marginally advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 8.
• Russian forces are intensifying mining efforts in the Robotyne-Verbove area and seek to fix Ukrainian forces on areas of the front away from western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russian sources are highlighting apparent fault lines between regular Russian forces and irregular formations of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR).
• Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat expressed concern over an anticipated Russian Shahed 131/136 drone strike campaign against Ukraine this winter.
• The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) observed satellite imagery showing that rail traffic between North Korea and Russia “dramatically” increased since Russian President Vladimir Putin met with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un on September 12-17
• The Russian federal government continues to disenfranchise certain ethnic minority federal subjects (regions) while selectively empowering others.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, western Donetsk Oblast, and on the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast administrative border on October 8 and reportedly advanced in some areas.
• Prague-based Russian-language outlet Current Time reported on October 8 that the number of desertion cases within the Russian military has increased.

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, OCTOBER 8, 2023

Oct 8, 2023 - ISW Press

Download the PDF

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 8, 2023

Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, Kateryna Stepanenko, Angelica Evans, and Mason Clark

October 8, 2023, 5pm ET

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cut-off for this product was 12:30pm ET on October 8. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the October 9 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

NOTE: ISW has added a new section on Russian information operations and narratives to the daily Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, found at the end of the update.

Russia advanced legal mechanisms to reform the Leningrad Military District as part of ongoing large-scale military reforms. The Russian federal portal of draft regulatory legal acts published a presidential decree on October 8, prepared by the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), which proposes stripping the Northern Fleet (NF) of its status as an “interspecific strategic territorial association.”[1] Russian state media noted that the proposal indicates that the NF will no longer be a separate military-administrative unit equal to a military district, suggesting that the NF and its four constituent regions (The Komi Republic, Arkhangelsk, and Murmansk oblasts, and the Nenets Autonomous Okrug) will be transferred to the reformed Leningrad Military District.[2] Russian military analyst Yuri Fedorov noted that the recreation of the Leningrad Military District suggests that Russia is preparing for possible conflicts with Baltic states and NATO.[3] The Russian military merged the Moscow and Leningrad Military Districts into the Western Military District in 2010.[4] The MoD created the Northern Fleet in 2014 out of territory covered by the Western Military District, and Russian President Vladimir Putin made the NF a military-administrative unit equal to a military district starting January 1, 2021.[5] Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu proposed the recreation of the Moscow and Leningrad Military Districts on the basis of the Western Military District (reversing the 2010 and 2014 changes) in December of 2022, and confirmed that these military districts were under active formation as of August 2023.[6] The MoD’s decision to re-divide the WMD indicates Russia sees the need to restructure its forces facing NATO and likely posture on the Finnish border, although it remains unclear how Russia will be able to mobilize, train, and organize these forces into new military district-level formations.

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and marginally advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 8. Geolocated footage published on October 8 shows that Ukrainian forces made limited gains north of Novoprokopivka (14km south of Orikhiv), and a Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces also advanced near Kopani (10km southwest of Orikhiv).[7] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces achieved partial success northeast of Andriivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut), and Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued attacks near Andriivka, and Kurdyumivka (11km southwest of Bakhmut).[8] Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that deteriorating weather conditions are impacting both Russian and Ukrainian operations across the theater. Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun stated that Russian drone and aviation activity has decreased in the past few days due to poor weather.[9] Russian milbloggers claimed that deteriorating weather conditions in the Bakhmut and Zaporizhia directions are impacting Ukrainian offensive operations as well as Russian aerial reconnaissance operations.[10] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Captain Ilya Yevlash reiterated that poor weather may impact drone and aviation operations but that the weather will not halt Ukraine’s counteroffensive.[11]

Russian forces are intensifying mining efforts in the Robotyne-Verbove area and seek to fix Ukrainian forces on areas of the front away from western Zaporizhia Oblast. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces have begun remining previously cleared areas on the Robotyne-Verbove line (10km south to 18km southeast of Orikhiv) to achieve tactical surprise.[12] The milbloggers claimed that heavy Russian mining and remining efforts have disrupted the movement of heavy Ukrainian cargo and equipment in these areas in recent days. A prominent Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that Russian forces intensified tactical offensive operations in several areas of the front beyond Zaporizhia Oblast in order to stretch Ukrainian defenses and divide Ukrainian attention.[13] Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun stated that Russian forces are trying to fix Ukrainian forces in the Avdiivka and Marinka directions and prevent them from deploying reserves to the Zaporizhia direction.[14]

Russian sources are highlighting apparent fault lines between regular Russian forces and irregular formations of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR). A Russian milblogger claiming to be a Buryat soldier fighting in the 37th Motorized Rifle Brigade [MRB] (36th Combined Arms Army, Eastern Military District) responded on October 7 to a post published by another milblogger on August 13 that accused the 37th MRB of abandoning their positions around Novodonetske (in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia border area) during Ukrainian attacks that ultimately liberated the village, leaving only elements of the DNR “Kaskad” operational tactical combat formation to defend the area.[15] The Buryat milblogger refuted this story and claimed that “Kaskad” conducts a small part of combat activities on the front while regular Russian troops shoulder more of the offensive burden, and derided other DNR units for having positions far behind frontline areas held by regular units.[16] The milblogger also claimed that DNR units have low skill levels and that regular Russian troops distrust them.[17] The allegations made by this milblogger against DNR formations suggest that there is continued friction between DNR forces and regular Russian forces, which is likely to further complicate efforts to integrate DNR forces into the regular Russian military as part of ongoing military reforms.[18]

Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat expressed concern over an anticipated Russian Shahed 131/136 drone strike campaign against Ukraine this winter. Ihnat stated on October 8 that Russian forces have increased the intensity of Shahed strikes recently, as Ukrainian officials previously warned.[19] Ihnat stated that Russian forces used 1,000 Shahed drones during the 2023-23 heating season but used a record 500 drones during September 2023 alone, indicating that Ukraine needs to prepare seriously for Russia’s 2023-24 winter drone strike campaign. Ihnat noted that Ukraine is gradually replacing Soviet air defense systems with Western-provided systems and intends to use these systems to protect Ukrainian energy facilities, port infrastructure, grain silos, and other critical infrastructure against Russian drone strikes this winter. Ihnat added that Russian authorities want to increase the production of Shahed drones domestically but cannot overcome their reliance on Iran for certain technologies and spare parts required for production.[20]

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) observed satellite imagery showing that rail traffic between North Korea and Russia “dramatically” increased since Russian President Vladimir Putin met with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un on September 12-17.[21] CSIS’ Beyond Parallel project found that satellite imagery captured on October 5 showed an “unprecedented” 73 freight railcars at the North Korea’s Tumangang Rail Facility. Beyond Parallel noted that previous satellite images showed a maximum of approximately 20 railcars at the Tumangang facility at once over the past five years. Beyond Parallel also observed shipping crates/containers and equipment laid out in the open at the main warehouse area at the Tumangang facility, although the contents of the transported goods remain unclear. Beyond Parallel remarked that the external characteristics of the containers and equipment are different from those observed during the past five years at the facility and assessed that it is “probable that these shipments are, or include, munitions and artillery.” Russian milbloggers and sources amplified Beyond Parallel findings in the Russian information space without confirming or denying the possibility of North Korean arms supplies to Russia.[22] ISW previously assessed that Putin may be open to some forms of technological and defensive cooperation with North Korea in return for North Korean artillery ammunition as long as such cooperation does not trigger secondary sanctions against Russia.[23]

The Russian federal government continues to disenfranchise certain ethnic minority federal subjects (regions) while selectively empowering others. Radio Liberty’s Tatar-Bashkir service Idel Realii amplified an opinion piece written by Tatar activist Ruslan Aisin on October 8 which criticizes the implementation of a new Tatarstan state national policy as federally enforced “feudalism.”[24] Aisin noted that the new policy dropped a provision on “strengthening Tatarstan identity,” which Aisin emphasized is aimed at Russifying ethnically diverse populations living in the Russian Federation, and claimed that the Russian federal government likely prompted the provision’s removal.[25] Aisin remarked that the removal of this provision is meant to deprive ethnic minority regions of their ability to empower their own cultures, languages, and traditions but questioned why Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov is allowed to publicly promote Chechen traditions and identity.[26] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and the Kremlin have recently signaled explicit support for Kadyrov and his style of rule in Chechnya despite increased interethnic tensions within Russian society and the military.[27] The suggestion that Russian federal policy is purposefully trying to disenfranchise Tatar identity while simultaneously empowering Kadyrov indicates that the Kremlin is interested in rewarding the ethnic minority regions that are the most overtly loyal to the Kremlin and provide the Kremlin with substantial military manpower for the war in Ukraine.

Key Takeaways:

• Russia advanced legal mechanisms to form the Leningrad Military District as part of ongoing large-scale military reforms.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and marginally advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 8.
• Russian forces are intensifying mining efforts in the Robotyne-Verbove area and seek to fix Ukrainian forces on areas of the front away from western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Russian sources are highlighting apparent fault lines between regular Russian forces and irregular formations of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR).
• Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat expressed concern over an anticipated Russian Shahed 131/136 drone strike campaign against Ukraine this winter.
• The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) observed satellite imagery showing that rail traffic between North Korea and Russia “dramatically” increased since Russian President Vladimir Putin met with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un on September 12-17
• The Russian federal government continues to disenfranchise certain ethnic minority federal subjects (regions) while selectively empowering others.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, western Donetsk Oblast, and on the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast administrative border on October 8 and reportedly advanced in some areas.
• Prague-based Russian-language outlet Current Time reported on October 8 that the number of desertion cases within the Russian military has increased.

We do not report in detail on Russian war crimes because these activities are well-covered in Western media and do not directly affect the military operations we are assessing and forecasting. We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and the Ukrainian population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. We utterly condemn these Russian violations of the laws of armed conflict, Geneva Conventions, and humanity even though we do not describe them in these reports.

• Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine (comprised of two subordinate main efforts)
• Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
• Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast
• Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis
• Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts
• Activities in Russian-occupied areas
• Russian Information Operations and Narratives

Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kupyansk area on October 8 and reportedly recently advanced. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced near Lyman Pershyi (12km northeast of Kupyansk), the Synkivka rail station (8km northeast of Kupyansk), on the Tymkivka-Ivanivka line (18-20km east of Kupyansk), and on the Orlyanka-Yahidne line (21-22km southeast of Kupyansk)on October 7.[28] ISW has observed no confirmation of this claim, however. Other Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces attacked near Petropavlivka (7km east of Kupyansk), Synkivka, and Kyslivka (20km southeast of Kuypyansk) on October 8.[29] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled multiple Russian attacks near Synkivka and Ivanivka (20km east of Kupyansk).[30] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Captain Ilya Yevlash stated that Russian forces have increased their use of aviation in the Kupyansk-Lyman direction to support increased offensive operations in these areas and compensate for their lack of artillery.[31]

Russian forces continued offensive operations on the Svatove-Kreminna line on October 8 and recently marginally advanced. Geolocated footage posted on October 7 shows that Russian forces advanced along a roast east of Makiivka, Luhansk Oblast (22km northwest of Kreminna) to positions just under two kilometers from the outskirts of the settlement.[32] Russian milbloggers made competing claims about Russian advances near Makiivka; one milblogger claimed that Russian forces reached the outskirts of the settlement, while another claimed that Russian forces advanced to within 600 meters of the settlement, and a third claimed that Russian forces remain just over one kilometer from the settlement – all inconsistent with ISW’s furthest observed Russian advance in the area, approximately two kilometers from the settlement.[33] Another milblogger claimed that Russian forces made unspecified advances near Makiivka and that Russian forces ultimately aim to push Ukrainian forces to the west bank of the Oskil River, an objective that Russian forces are likely too degraded to achieve in the near term.[34]

Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted unsuccessful offensive operations on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on October 8. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks near Orlyanka in Kharkiv Oblast; Novoselivske (15km north of Svatove), Makiivka, and Dibrova (5km southwest of Kreminna) in Luhansk Oblast; Torske (14km west of Kreminna) in Donetsk Oblast; and in the Serebryanske forest area (11km south of Kreminna).[35] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian attack near Torske.[36]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut on October 8 and reportedly advanced. The Ukrainian General Staff and other Ukrainian military sources reported that Ukrainian forces had partial success northeast of Andriivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut).[37] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that elements of the Russian Southern Grouping of Forces repelled Ukrainian attacks near Andriivka.[38] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces are trying to bypass Kurdyumivka (11km southwest of Bakhmut) from the northeast and attacking in the direction of Zelenopillya (12km southwest of Bakhmut) to do so.[39] The milblogger also noted that Ukrainian forces have recently shifted their efforts towards Kurdyumivka in order to capture the remaining tactical heights south of Bakhmut.[40] Another milblogger reported that there are fewer significant Ukrainian movements in this area due to deteriorating weather conditions and heavy rain, which is inhibiting the use of aerial reconnaissance.[41]

Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks to regain lost positions near Bakhmut on October 8 and reportedly made limited advances. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks southwest of Bakhmut near Andriivka and Klishchiivka and northwest of Bakhmut near Bohdanivka (6km northwest).[42] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are counterattacking on the northern flank of Bakhmut and pushed Ukrainian forces back near Berkhivka (directly northwest of Bakhmut) and attacked towards Dubovo-Vasylivka (5km northwest of Bakhmut) and Yakovlivka (12km northeast of Bakhmut).[43]

Ukrainian forces did not conduct any claimed or confirmed ground attacks on the Donetsk City-Avdiivka line on October 8.

Russian forces continued ground attacks on the Donetsk City-Avdiivka line on October 8 and reportedly advanced. The Ukrainian General Staff and Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun reported that Ukrainian forces repelled 20 Russian attacks near Avdiivka (directly north of Donetsk City), on the northwestern outskirts of Donetsk City near Pervomaiske, and on the southwestern outskirts of Donetsk City near Marinka, Krasnohorivka, and Novomykhailivka.[44] Shtupun also noted that Russian attacks in the Avdiivka and Marinka directions are meant to distract Ukrainian forces and prevent the transfer of Ukrainian reserves to the Zaporizhia direction.[45] A Russian milblogger posted footage reportedly of Russian “Storm-Z” units training somewhere in the Avdiivka direction.[46] Other Russian sources claimed that Russian forces recently managed to occupy new positions in northern Marinka and had partial success near Krasnohorivka (the settlement north of Avdiivka).[47]  

Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)

Ukrainian forces continued offensives in western Donetsk Oblast and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area on October 8 but did not make any confirmed advances. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that elements of the Russian Eastern Grouping of Forces repelled Ukrainian attacks northeast of Mykilske (4km southwest of Vuhledar and 33km southeast of Velyka Novosilka), west of Novodonetske (11km southeast of Velyka Novosilka), west of Staromayorske (8km southwest of Velyka Novosilka), and north of Pryyutne (15km southwest of Velyka Novosilka).[48] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully attacked in an unspecified forest belt likely west of Staromayorske, are trying daily to improve positions north of Pryyutne with decreasing intensity, and are attempting to regain lost positions west of Novodonetske.[49] The UK MoD assessed that the Velyka Novosilka sector of the frontline has been relatively quiet for the last four weeks and that Ukrainian forces liberated at least 125 square kilometers on this frontline.[50] ISW assesses that Ukrainian forces liberated nearly 215 square kilometers in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area since the start of the counteroffensive in June 2023. The UK MoD also observed that Ukrainian operations in the Velyka Novosilka area have successfully fixed elements of the 5th and 36th Combined Arms Armies (CAAs) of the Eastern Military District (EMD) and some unspecified airborne elements to the area.[51]

Russian forces counterattacked in western Donetsk Oblast and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area on October 8 but did not make any confirmed territorial gains. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian Spetsnaz and motorized rifle units have captured almost a dozen Ukrainian positions and pushed Ukrainian forces from an unspecified “strategically important settlement.”[52] The milblogger added that elements of the Russian 34th Separate Rifle Brigade (49th CAA, Southern Military District [SMD]) are operating in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area. Another milblogger claimed that elements of the 43rd Separate Special Purpose Company (29th CAA, EMD) are operating north of Mykilske.[53] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled 10 Russian assaults near Vodyane (6km northeast of Vuhledar and 34km east of Velyka Novosilka) and Zolota Nyva (10km southeast of Velyka Novosilka).[54]

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 8 and made limited territorial gains north of Novoprokopivka (14km south of Orikhiv). Geolocated footage published on October 8 indicated that Ukrainian forces made limited advances along the T-0408 highway on Novoprokopivka’s northern outskirts.[55] A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces continue to attack towards Kopani (10km southwest of Orkhiv) and made some advances.[56] The milblogger added that the Russian fortified defensive line is located northeast and southeast of Kopani and that Ukrainian forces also unsuccessfully attacked Russian positions on the outskirts of Novoprokopivka and on the approaches to Verbove (16km southeast of Orikhiv).[57] The milblogger observed that Russian forces have been unsuccessful in cutting off flanks of Ukrainian forces advancing towards Novoprokopivka and Verbove throughout the week but that Ukrainian forces did not make significant advances.[58] Another Russian milblogger claimed that intense battles are ongoing on the Robotyne (11km south of Orikhiv)-Verbove line and that Russian artillery fire repelled two Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups northwest of Verbove.[59]

Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun stated that Russian forces continue to strengthen their defenses around Tokmak and that the city has become a fortress surrounded by circular defensive lines.[60]

Russian sources continued to discuss Ukrainian operations across the Dnipro River and near the Antonivsky Bridge in Kherson Oblast. A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces continued to consolidate positions on the Dnipro River delta islands on the east (left) bank of the river and are achieving partial success.[61] The milblogger specified that Ukrainian forces do not have a serious bridgehead in the area, however. Another milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces still hold positions under Antonivsky Bridge and that Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance units occasionally venture to Oleshky (7km east of Kherson City) using the bridge as a cover.[62]

Russian sources, including the Russian MoD, claimed that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully attempted to strike the Dzhankoi rail station with a modified S-200 missile on the evening of October 7.[63]

Russian Mobilization and Force Generation Efforts (Russian objective: Expand combat power without conducting general mobilization)

Prague-based Russian-language outlet Current Time reported on October 8 that the number of desertion cases within the Russian military has increased.[64] Current Time reported that “Go Through the Forest,” a Russian organization that helps Russian citizens avoid mobilization, has observed an increasing number of Russian servicemen deserting since May 2023. The increase in desertion cases is reportedly due to the Russian military beginning to allow contract servicemen to take vacations in late April and May, which many servicemen never returned from. Current Time stated that the Russian military refuses to give vacations to mobilized personnel.

The Kherson Oblast occupation military registration and enlistment office announced continued efforts to discourage draft evasion in occupied Kherson Oblast on October 7.[65] The office announced several new and increased fines related to military registration, including fines against: employers who fail to notify employees subject to conscription and send them to assembly points; employers who fail to provide the office with lists of employees liable for military service; employers who fail to update the office on the dismissal of an employee liable for military service; locals who fail to fulfill their military transport duties; and locals who violate the requirement to register for military service.

Activities in Russian-occupied areas (Russian objective: Consolidate administrative control of annexed areas; forcibly integrate Ukrainian citizens into Russian sociocultural, economic, military, and governance systems)

The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on October 8 that Ukrainian partisans provided information that helped Ukrainian forces conduct several successful strikes against Russian rear areas within the past week, including strikes against a Russian military headquarters in the Kherson direction, several ammunition depots, and concentrations of Russian military personnel.[66]

Occupation authorities reportedly continue to seize the property of Ukrainian civilians in occupied Ukraine to allocate to Russian military personnel. Ukrainian Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov stated on October 8 that occupation authorities in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast are evicting local Ukrainians and housing Russian servicemen in their homes.[67] Fedorov stated that occupation authorities are also distributing plots of land in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast to Russian servicemen as a reward for military service. Fedorov added that occupation authorities have reduced pension payments for locals in occupied Ukraine by several thousand rubles and stated that some government employees have not been paid or have only been paid a fraction of their salaries for the last month and a half.[68]

Russian Information Operations and Narratives:

Russian milbloggers continued to exploit Hamas’ attacks in Israel to further Russian information operations on October 8 intended to reduce US and Western support to Ukraine.[69] Russian milbloggers ludicrously claimed that Hamas is using Ukrainian-provided weaponry against Israel.[70] The Ukrainian Military Media Center quickly identified these claims as a Russian information operation and noted that Ukraine’s Western partners closely monitor weapons and military equipment supplied to Ukraine.[71]

Russian sources gloated and claimed on October 8 that increased Western attention on Israel will likely draw attention and aid away from Ukraine.[72] Russian sources increasingly focused on the Hamas attacks in Israel, continuing to impact the detail on the Russian war in Ukraine available for ISW’s daily assessments.

Significant activity in Belarus (Russian efforts to increase its military presence in Belarus and further integrate Belarus into Russian-favorable frameworks and Wagner Group activity in Belarus)

The Belarusian Ministry of Defense (MoD) released images on October 8 of Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) peacekeeping forces, reportedly including troops from Belarus, Russia, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, conducting military exercises at the Edelweiss training center in Kyrgyzstan as part of the “Indestructible Brotherhood-2023" exercise.[73]

ISW will continue to report daily observed Russian and Belarusian military activity in Belarus as part of ongoing Kremlin efforts to increase their control over Belarus and other Russian actions in Belarus.

Note: ISW does not receive any classified material from any source, uses only publicly available information, and draws extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media as well as commercially available satellite imagery and other geospatial data as the basis for these reports. References to all sources used are provided in the endnotes of each update.

11. Statement From Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III on U.S. Force Posture Changes in the Middle E​ast

Statement From Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III on U.S. Force Posture Changes in the Middle E​ast

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My thoughts continue to be with the people of Israel and the many families who have lost loved ones as a result of the abhorrent terrorist attack by Hamas. Today, in response to this Hamas attack on Israel, and following detailed discussions with President Biden, I have directed several steps to strengthen Department of Defense posture in the region to bolster regional deterrence efforts.

I have directed the movement of the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group to the Eastern Mediterranean. This includes the U.S. Navy aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78), the Ticonderoga-class guided missile cruiser USS Normandy (CG 60), as well as the Arleigh-Burke-class guided missile destroyers USS Thomas Hudner (DDG 116), USS Ramage (DDG 61), USS Carney (DDG 64), and USS Roosevelt (DDG 80). We have also taken steps to augment U.S. Air Force F-35, F-15, F-16, and A-10 fighter aircraft squadrons in the region. The U.S. maintains ready forces globally to further reinforce this deterrence posture if required.

In addition, the United States government will be rapidly providing the Israel Defense Forces with additional equipment and resources, including munitions. The first security assistance will begin moving today and arriving in the coming days.

Strengthening our joint force posture, in addition to the materiel support that we will rapidly provide to Israel, underscores the United States' ironclad support for the Israel Defense Forces and the Israeli people. My team and I will continue to be in close contact with our Israeli counterparts to ensure they have what they need to protect their citizens and defend themselves against these heinous terrorist attacks.

israel partnerships Defense Secretary Austin

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12. Readout of Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III's Call With Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant

Readout of Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III's Call With Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant

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Pentagon Press Secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder provided the following readout:

Today Secretary Austin spoke with Israeli Minister of Defense Gallant to express support for the people of Israel and to receive updates on Israel's operation to restore security and safety from Hamas' terrorist attack.

The Secretary reaffirmed the unwavering support of the United States for Israel's right to defend itself and provided updates on U.S. actions in response, including his direction to move the U.S. Navy aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78), the Ticonderoga-class guided missile cruiser USS Normandy (CG60), and the Arleigh-Burke class guided missile destroyers USS Thomas Hudner (DDG 116), USS Ramage (DDG 61), USS Carney (DDG 64), and USS Roosevelt (DDG 80) into the Eastern Mediterranean in proximity to Israel. Secretary Austin underscored these steps were taken to strengthen the U.S. military posture in the region to bolster regional deterrence efforts.

He also shared with Minister Gallant that the United States is sending additional equipment and resources, including munitions, to arrive in Israel in the coming days.

Both leaders agreed to remain in close contact in the days and weeks ahead.

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13. Divergent Options: Writing Contest Results – The Taiwan Offensive

Writing Contest Results – The Taiwan Offensive

https://divergentoptions.org/2023/10/09/writing-contest-results-the-taiwan-offensive/

Posted by

Divergent Options

October 9, 2023

Source: https://wmich.edu/politics/kastner-taiwan-strait

Divergent Options ran a Writing Contest from March 1, 2023 to July 31, 2023 and as of this writing all of the entries we received have been published. On behalf of the Divergent Options Team of Phil Walter, Steve Leonard, and Bob Hein, and also on behalf of our judges Kori Schake of the American Enterprise Institute, Wayne Hugar of the National Intelligence University, and Ali Wyne of EurasiaGroup’s Global Macro-Geopolitics practice, we want to thank all of our writers who entered the contest. Divergent Options would not be what it is without our writers, and for that we are eternally grateful. All writings related to this contest can be found by clicking here, and the awards are as follows:

First Place $500: Michael A. Cappelli II – “Examining Disaster Aid as Cover for a Chinese Fait Accompli Against Taiwan”

Second Place $300: Heath Sloane – “Assessment of the People’s Republic of China’s United Front Work Department, its Impact on Taiwan’s National Security, and Strategies to Combat Foreign Interference”

Third Place $100: Elliot Pernula – “Assessing the People’s Republic of China’s Current and Future Offensive Operations Against the Republic of China (Taiwan) in the Context of China’s International Ambitions”

Honorable Mention $50: Marshall McGurk – “Options for the United States to Counter China’s Multi-Pronged Offensives in Taiwan”

Honorable Mention $50: Thomas J. Shattuck – “Options for Taiwan’s Response to a Conventional Missile Strike by the People’s Republic of China“

Honorable Mention $50: Andrew Segal – “Assessing the People’s Republic of China’s Multiple Ongoing Offensives Against Taiwan“

14. Israel intensifies strikes and vows to besiege Gaza as it scours south for Hamas fighters

I fear this will be a long and bloody war.

Israel intensifies strikes and vows to besiege Gaza as it scours south for Hamas fighters

BY JOSEF FEDERMAN AND ISSAM ADWAN

Updated 6:16 AM EDT, October 9, 2023

AP · October 9, 2023

JERUSALEM (AP) — Israel’s military scoured the country’s south for Hamas fighters, guarded breaches in its border fence and pounded the Gaza Strip from the air on Monday as it vowed to lay total siege to the impoverished, Hamas-ruled territory in the wake of an unprecedented weekend incursion.

More than two days after Hamas launched its surprise attack from Gaza, the military said the fighting had largely died down for now. Israel’s vaunted military and intelligence apparatus was caught completely off guard, bringing heavy battles to its streets for the first time in decades.

Israel formally declared war on Sunday, portending greater fighting ahead, and a possible ground assault into Gaza — a move that in the past has brought intensified casualties. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed to destroy “the military and governing capabilities” of the militant group, which is deeply rooted in Gaza.

As Israel hit more than 1,000 targets in Gaza and its tanks and drones guarded openings in the border fence to prevent more infiltrations, Palestinian militants continued firing barrages of rockets, setting off air raid sirens in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. Video posted online appeared to show a plume of smoke near a terminal at Ben Gurion International Airport. There was no immediate word on casualties or damage from the latest bombardment.

But civilians have already paid a high price. Around 700 people have been killed in Israel — a staggering toll by the scale of its recent conflicts. Nearly 500 have been killed in Gaza, an enclave of 2.3 million Palestinians bordering Israel and Egypt. Palestinian militant groups claimed to be holding over 130 captives from the Israeli side.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, meanwhile, ordered a “complete siege” on Gaza, saying authorities would cut electricity and block the entry of food and fuel. Israel and Egypt have imposed various levels of blockade on the territory since Hamas seized power from rival Palestinian forces in 2007.

Gallant said Israel was at war with “human animals,” using the kind of dehumanizing language often employed by both sides at times of soaring tensions.

After about 48 hours of pitched battles inside Israel, the chief military spokesman, Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari, told reporters Israel has “control” of its border communities. He said there had been some isolated incidents early Monday, but that “at this stage, there is no fighting in the communities.”

But he added that militants may remain inside Israel.

Hagari said that 15 of 24 border communities have been evacuated, with the rest expected to be emptied in the coming day.

Earlier, Hamas spokesman Abdel-Latif al-Qanoua told The Associated Press over the phone that the group’s fighters continued to battle outside Gaza and had captured more Israelis as recently as Monday morning.

He said the group aims to free all Palestinian prisoners held by Israel, which in the past has agreed to painful, lopsided exchange deals in which it released large numbers of prisoners for individual captives or even the remains of soldiers.

In its airstrikes, Israel’s military said it leveled much of Beit Hanoun — a town in northeast Gaza that Hagari said Hamas was using the as a staging ground for attacks. There was no immediate word on casualties, and most of the community’s population of tens of thousands likely fled beforehand.

Hagari said the army had called up around 300,000 reservists — a massive mobilization.

He reiterated that the goal is to decimate Hamas’ military and governing capabilities. Hamas has ruled Gaza since driving out forces loyal to the internationally recognized Palestinian Authority in 2007 and its rule has gone unchallenged through the 16-year Israeli and Egyptian blockade and four previous wars with Israel.

After breaking through Israeli barriers with explosives at daybreak Saturday, Hamas gunmen rampaged for hours, gunning down civilians and snatching people in towns, along highways and at a techno music festival attended by thousands in the desert. Palestinian militants have also launched around 4,400 rockets at Israel, according to the military.

The Israeli military estimated 1,000 Hamas fighters took part in Saturday’s initial incursion. The high figure underscored the extent of planning by the militant group, which has said it launched the attack in response to mounting Palestinian suffering under Israel’s occupation of the West Bank, its blockade of Gaza, its discriminatory policies in annexed east Jerusalem and tensions around a disputed Jerusalem holy site sacred to Muslims and Jews.

The Palestinians want a state of their own in all three territories, captured by Israel in the 1967 war, but the last serious peace talks broke down well over a decade ago, and Israel’s far-right government is opposed to Palestinian statehood.

Among the captives that Hamas and the smaller Islamic Jihad group claim to have taken are soldiers and civilians, including women, children and older adults, mostly Israelis but also some people of other nationalities. The Israeli military has said only that the number of captives is “significant.”

Mayyan Zin, a divorced mother of two, said she learned that her two daughters had been abducted when a relative sent her photos from a Telegram group showing them sitting on mattresses in captivity. She then found online videos of a chilling scene in her ex-husband’s home: Gunmen who had broken in speak to him near the two weeping daughters, Dafna, 15, and Ella, 8. Another video showed the father being taken into Gaza.

“Just bring my daughters home and to their family. All the people,” Zin said.

In Gaza, where the U.N. said more than 123,000 people had been displaced by the fighting, residents feared further escalation.

As of late Sunday, Israeli airstrikes had destroyed 159 housing units across the territory and severely damaged 1,210 others, the U.N. said. The U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA, said a school sheltering more than 225 people took a direct hit. It did not say where the fire came from.

In the city of Rafah in southern Gaza, an Israeli airstrike early Monday killed 19 people, including women and children, said Talat Barhoum, a doctor at the local Al-Najjar Hospital. Barhoum said aircraft hit the home of the Abu Hilal family, and that one of those killed was Rafaat Abu Hilal, a leader of a local armed group. The strike caused damage to surrounding homes.

Over the weekend, another airstrike on a home in Rafah killed 19 members of the Abu Quta family, including women and children, survivors said.

Several Israeli media outlets, citing rescue service officials, said those killed on the Israeli side include at least 73 soldiers. The Gaza Health Ministry said 493 people, including 78 children and 41 women, were killed in the territory. Thousands have been wounded on both sides. An Israeli official said security forces have killed 400 militants and captured dozens more.

On Sunday, the U.S. dispatched an aircraft carrier strike group to the Eastern Mediterranean to be ready to assist Israel, and said it would send additional military aid.

In northern Israel, a brief exchange of strikes with Lebanon’s Hezbollah militant group fanned fears that the fighting could expand into a wider regional war. The Israeli military said the situation was calm after the exchange.

Elsewhere, six Palestinians were killed in clashes with Israeli soldiers Sunday around the West Bank.

___

This story has been updated to correct the name of Palestinian family to Abu Quta, not Abu Outa.

___

Adwan reported from Rafah, Gaza Strip. Associated Press writers Isabel DeBre and Julia Frankel in Jerusalem; Wafaa Shurafa in Gaza City; Tia Goldenberg in Tel Aviv, Israel; Bassem Mroue in Beirut; Samy Magdy in Cairo; and Amir Vahdat in Tehran, Iran, contributed to this report.

AP · October 9, 2023

15. There Is No Consensus on American Decline in Beijing

Excerpts:

Assuming that there are uniform views of U.S. decline in Beijing contributes to threat inflation, by interpreting China as being convinced that it is on a trajectory, buoyed by a historical narrative, toward a successful power transition. This misperception could also lead to miscalculations on the U.S. side. As certain narratives in Washington’s strategic discourse calcify into conventional wisdom, they can go uninterrogated, and if policymakers stop critically assessing these basic assumptions, they might fail to observe significant shifts in trends that could otherwise be leveraged to deescalate tensions.

The extent to which discourse has shifted in recent years, from discussion oriented around China’s ascendancy to suggestions now that China is “peaking,” is indicative of how rapidly geopolitical conditions can change. Those changes require an equally flexible ability to reevaluate some conventional views when necessary.

There Is No Consensus on American Decline in Beijing

It is inaccurate – and dangerous – to assume that Chinese policy elites broadly perceive the U.S. to be in perpetual decline.

By Daniel Fu and Arran Hope

October 09, 2023

thediplomat.com · by Daniel Fu · October 9, 2023

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Western writing on China is rife with commentary and analysis suggesting that there is an established consensus among Chinese policy elites and academics that the United States is in a state of perpetual decline. This analysis accurately diagnoses increasing confidence in China about Beijing’s material capabilities and technological prowess, and often passes for conventional wisdom. However, it ignores several recently published Chinese-language articles and commentaries that suggest there is far from a uniform consensus in Beijing about U.S. decline.

Many prominent Chinese elites have detailed how the United States continues to occupy a leading position in the international system, how its economic capabilities and influence have not waned and remain robust, and how it still holds sizable advantages in areas related to science and technology. An awareness of the diversity of views among those who help shape the discourse in Beijing’s policymaking circles allows for a more accurate appraisal of China’s approach to strategic competition. This in turn can help Washington craft smarter policy towards its principal strategic rival.

Party rhetoric from Beijing regularly trumpets China’s rise as inevitable and part of “changes not seen for a century.” This triumphalism has been largely coterminous with Xi Jinping’s time in office, though its origins extend back to the global financial crisis of 2008, when many Chinese elites began to express skepticism about U.S. leadership and hegemony. This hubris was then amplified during the Trump administration and into the pandemic, as rifts between the United States and its allies became more apparent and as Washington’s capacity to protect its citizens at home was called into question.

Prominent Chinese elites have sought more recently to dispel this common narrative. The political scientist Zheng Yongnian emphasized in 2022 that while “China has risen rapidly, the West has not fallen; it has just risen a little slower. Many people have not understood this point.” Sun Zhe, the director of the Center for U.S.-China Relations and professor of International Relations at Tsinghua University, has similarly warned that “discussion underestimating the U.S. and thinking that the importance of the U.S. has declined has restricted China’s objective judgment of the U.S. and the healthy development of U.S.-China relations.”

Zhao Kejin, an associate professor of International Studies at Tsinghua University, wrote that “many people think the United States is in decline now, but I personally think the United States has not declined.” He drew attention to issues endemic within U.S. politics, but chalked these up to various kinds of “confusion” in U.S. democracy and did not suggest that these are indicative of decline relative to China.

Even Jin Canrong, the associate dean of the School of International Relations at Renmin University in Beijing whose views on U.S. decline are discussed extensively in Rush Doshi’s book “The Long Game,” stated in 2023 that the balance of power between the United States and China has remained unchanged, let alone the “advantage of power” enjoyed by the U.S. in the international system.

The notion that the U.S. economy is in decline or that Washington’s economic influence abroad is diminishing has also received pushback. Wang Jisi, president of the Institute of International and Strategic Studies at Peking University, argued in 2022 that he has “doubts about assertions regarding the economic decline of the United States.” He noted that the U.S. economy has consistently accounted for “25-30 percent of world GDP” and that even though it has “occasionally slipped out of this range, it always recovers within a short period of time.” He concluded that “it is illogical to think that the U.S. will decline in the short-term,” pointing to enduring advantages the U.S. possesses in its natural resources, demographic trends, and geography.

Other experts such as Lu Feng, chair professor of economics at Peking University, have emphasized that the rate of China’s “catch-up” vis-a-vis the United States is “slowing down.” Lu pointed out that between 2011 and 2021, China’s “catch-up rate” vis-a-vis the U.S. slowed by 55 percent. Between 2017 and 2021, China’s GDP only grew an aggregate total of 8.5 percent against the United States while China’s annual “catch-up rate” in that period averaged only 1.7 percent per year.

The decline of U.S. manufacturing over the past two decades is often taken as an indicator of American decline by observers on both sides of the Pacific. However, Ma Xue, an associate researcher at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR), a government-connected think tank, has even countered this argument. In 2023, she asserted that the manufacturing industry in the U.S. has never been in “true decline,” and emphasized that the scale of U.S. manufacturing has grown rapidly in the last 40 years in absolute terms and in terms of productivity, maintaining its “competitive edge.”

Claims that China is ahead in the bilateral competition over high-tech innovation and research have also been met with some skepticism by Chinese elites. Wu Guosheng, professor and chair of the Department of the History of Science at Tsinghua University, has asserted that the “gap between the U.S. and China in science and technology is still relatively large” and that only by “reversing our fundamental views on science, basic research, and innovative culture, can we truly narrow the gap.” Wu lamented what he sees as China’s “rigid, old-fashioned” teachers and a restrictive “scientific culture,” which he believes obstructs efforts to foster a culture of true innovation akin to that of the United States.

Ren Zhengfei, founder of the telecoms giant Huawei, has expressed a similar sentiment. During a speech delivered at Shanghai Jiaotong University in 2023, he argued that “American politicians may come and go, but the United States’ innovative soil has lasted for hundreds of years and will not degrade because of them.” Ren added that “the soft power of the United States in science and education is something we cannot achieve in a few decades.”

The scientist Shi Yigong, the former dean of Tsinghua University’s School of Life Sciences, asserted in 2023 that “American science is much more powerful than you can imagine” and emphasized that “it is not only not in decline, but it will also lead world development in coming decades.” He stated that “according to the data, the U.S. has continued nurturing leading talent” and continues to occupy a “leading position in the world in innovation and various lines of scientific research, regardless of whether it is military or aerospace technology or any other area.”

Wang Wen, the executive dean of the Chaoyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University, echoed Wu, Ren, and Shi, writing around the same time that while China may ultimately surpass the United States, it is necessary for China to “objectively face the basic fact that the U.S. is not declining and will not decline.” He argued that the West still holds “obvious advantages” in that Washington maintains “an absolute leading position in finance, science and technology, military, and education.”

It is inaccurate and dangerous to assume that Chinese policy elites broadly perceive the U.S. to be in perpetual decline. This is not to ignore the significant contingent of U.S. declinists in academic and policy positions throughout China’s network of universities and think tanks. It may be the case that their views represent the majority of the contemporary Chinese academy. It is a mistake, however, to assume that there is a monolithic view in Beijing on Washington’s stature, position, and influence in the world. Debate in elite Chinese policy circles on the current stature and future of the United States is as contested as its inverse in the West.

Assuming that there are uniform views of U.S. decline in Beijing contributes to threat inflation, by interpreting China as being convinced that it is on a trajectory, buoyed by a historical narrative, toward a successful power transition. This misperception could also lead to miscalculations on the U.S. side. As certain narratives in Washington’s strategic discourse calcify into conventional wisdom, they can go uninterrogated, and if policymakers stop critically assessing these basic assumptions, they might fail to observe significant shifts in trends that could otherwise be leveraged to deescalate tensions.

The extent to which discourse has shifted in recent years, from discussion oriented around China’s ascendancy to suggestions now that China is “peaking,” is indicative of how rapidly geopolitical conditions can change. Those changes require an equally flexible ability to reevaluate some conventional views when necessary.

GUEST AUTHOR

Daniel Fu

Daniel Fu is a research associate at Harvard Business School. He was formerly the editor of the Party Watch Initiative and an open-source analyst at the Center for Advanced China Research (CACR) in Washington D.C. He received his M.A. in Political Science with a specialization in International Relations from Columbia University and his B.A. in Political Science from Boston College. His research has been published by the Jamestown Foundation, Pacific Forum, and The Diplomat.

GUEST AUTHOR

Arran Hope

Arran Hope is the editor-in-chief of the Jamestown Foundation's China Brief. He was formerly a business reporter at the China Project in New York. He received his M.A. in East Asian Studies from Columbia University and his B.A. in Chinese Studies and Japanese at the University of Cambridge.

thediplomat.com · by Daniel Fu · October 9, 2023

16. Is Israel at War With Iran?

Excerpts:

Allying with Tehran, doing its bidding, and bringing terror upon innocent Israeli civilians will not bring Palestinians any positive outcomes. Seven million Jewish Israelis and the State of Israel are not going anywhere, and so long as Palestinians don’t seek a strategy predicated upon coexistence, they will find no path forward. We have been here before: During the Second Intifada of 2000–05, the murders of Israeli civilians by Hamas and other Palestinian factions served only to weaken Israel’s pro-peace camp and lay the ground for the rise of the far right. A similar outcome today will not be in either society’s interest. Nor will it help the Iranian people, many of whom have long shown their opposition to the regime’s anti-Israel obsession, and some of whom are already protesting the regime’s support for the Palestinian attacks. They have no interest in a conflict with Israel.

As he was hurrying to the northern front on Saturday, a reserve senior officer of the Israel Defense Forces told Haaretz: “We were living in an imaginary reality for years.” He was talking about Israeli intelligence failures, but an equally imaginary reality is that Israelis can have normal lives so long as millions of Palestinians don’t. We can only hope that responsible actors in the region and beyond can bring about a cease-fire in the days ahead, before the conflagration gets any bigger. But in the long term, countering Tehran’s murderous agenda will require a durable solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict itself.

Is Israel at War With Iran?

Tehran is exploiting a conflict left to fester for too long.

By Arash Azizi

The Atlantic · by Arash Azizi · October 8, 2023

The October 7 attacks on Israel by the Palestinian terror groups Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad are being compared to 9/11 and Pearl Harbor. In fact, with more than 600 Israelis dead at the time of this writing, the proportional death toll is several times higher than that of 9/11, and the factor of surprise is arguably greater than at Pearl Harbor.

But 9/11 and Pearl Harbor weren’t just tragic attacks. They were casus belli for seismic wars. Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has declared his country to be heading into “a long and grueling war.” The air attacks he ordered in Gaza have already resulted in hundreds of Palestinian casualties. Will October 7 also lead to a broader conflagration in the region? Most important, can Israel rightly consider itself to be engaged in a shadow conflict with Iran?

Many commentators scoff at bringing Iran into an analysis of Israel’s conflict with the Palestinians. The sentiment is understandable. Some Beltway pundits name-drop Iran primarily to drive their own agendas. And the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not primarily about Iran: It is rooted in Israel’s decades-long occupation of Palestinian territories, its brutal siege of the Gaza Strip, and its deprivation of dignity to millions of Palestinians under its rule.

Nevertheless, Iran has meddled enough in internal Arab politics that no proper analysis of October 7 can ignore its role. Hamas has occasionally gotten some cash and political support from countries such as Turkey and Qatar. But Turkey has extensive security relations with Israel, and Qatar has previously acted as a mediator with Israel and officially stands for the two-state solution. Only one state in the world doesn’t just give Hamas money but also lends significant military and political support. It is also the only state in the world still promising to fight Israel to total destruction: the Islamic Republic of Iran.

More important than material support, Tehran offers Hamas membership in an anti-Israel club with forces arrayed across the region. The Axis of Resistance counts the membership of Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon (right on Israel’s northern borders), and various Iraqi and Syrian militias. As others have pointed out, Tehran’s arming of these forces with its advanced missile technology has changed the face of warfare in the region. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the militia that now holds much of the economic and political power in Iran, coordinates all of these forces via its external operations wing, the Quds Force, whose footprint extends over the region and to places as far away as Paraguay and the Central African Republic.

Does all of this mean that Iran had a direct hand in planning the October 7 attacks? A White House official has concluded that it’s “too early” to make such claims. But senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah have suggested that IRGC officials gave the green light for the assault at a meeting in Beirut last Monday. The operation, whatever its details, must have taken months of preparation, and Hamas would almost certainly not simply surprise Tehran with something on this scale. Some coordination seems the very minimum. Of the analysts saying so, not all are your usual D.C. Iran hawks. Ali Hashem, a Lebanese Al Jazeera correspondent who is an expert on the IRGC’s regional alliances and used to work for the Hezbollah-friendly channel Al Mayadeen, has said that the attacks were “probably an axis decision.”

Read: A message from Iran

The Iranian regime has shown resolute support for the attacks. It organized fireworks celebrations in Tehran’s Palestine Square. Members of parliament shouted “Death to Israel” in the Majlis. Yahya Safavi, a former top commander of the IRGC (1997–2007) and currently a top adviser to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, spoke in no uncertain terms: “We support this operation, congratulate Palestinian fighters on it, and are sure that the Axis of Resistance will back it too.” Ali Akbar Velayati, another top adviser to Khamenei and a longtime former foreign minister, also lent his support, writing to Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad leaders: “This victorious operation will surely facilitate and accelerate the collapse of the Zionist regime.” The IRGC’s media outlets are meanwhile busy publishing posters, some in Hebrew, brandishing messages such as we told you to sell your homes in the Zionist regime before it’s too late and anti-Semitic cartoons portraying Israeli Jews fleeing the country.

Lebanon’s Hezbollah, the jewel in the crown of Iran’s axis, has backed the Hamas attacks strongly and exchanged fire with Israel in the north. But, crucially, Hezbollah attacks have so far been limited to Shebaa Farms, a small strip of land that Lebanon considers its own territory (most countries count the strip as part of Syria’s Golan Heights, currently under Israeli occupation) and not Israel proper. Having come close to total destruction after its 2006 war with Israel, Hezbollah knows a full-on conflict could be suicidal.

One reason the attacks are surprising to so many is that, for months, the trend in the Middle East has been toward diplomatic reconciliation and the smoothing-over of rifts. Despite its murderous record, the Syrian regime was readmitted to the Arab League; Turkey has had a rapprochement with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt; and Iran has restored diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia. In his annual “Islamic unity” speech this week, on the occasion of the Prophet Muhammad’s birthday, Khamenei expressed support for this reconciliation trend: “If Iran and countries such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan adopt a common position on fundamental questions,” Khamenei said, “oppressive powers won’t be able to interfere in their domestic affairs or foreign policy.” The three countries Khamenei named were all U.S. allies not usually on good terms with Iran; Cairo doesn’t have diplomatic ties with Tehran, and those between Iran and Jordan are very limited. Both have had relations with Israel for decades, as they were the first Arab countries to recognize the Jewish state.

But in the same speech, Khamenei left no doubt as to where Tehran stands on Israel. The supreme leader claimed that the “Zionist regime” was full of “hatred” toward all of its neighbors and pursuing a goal of dominating the region “from the Nile to the Euphrates.” He went on to promise that “the Zionist regime is dying” and warned countries seeking to normalize ties with Israel that they were “making a mistake … betting on the losing horse.” Israel, he said, is “a cancer that will be uprooted and destroyed by the people of Palestine and forces of resistance in the region.” Shortly after the October 7 attack, Palestinian leaders, including Hamas’s Ismail Haniya and Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s Ehsan Ataya, issued explicit messages to Arab countries seeking normalization with Israel, warning them in strikingly similar tones.

Saudi Arabia might appear to be receptive to this messaging. Its foreign ministry’s statement following the attacks carefully avoided condemning Hamas and instead reminded Israelis of “repeated warnings of the dangers of the explosion of the situation as a result of the continued occupation, and deprivation of the Palestinian people of their legitimate rights, and the repetition of systematic provocations against its sanctities.” But Riyadh has hardly needed Iran to determine this position, which has been Saudi Arabia’s historical stance, and which it has never said it would change: No recognition of Israel so long as Palestinians remain stateless.

Read: The Israeli-Saudi deal had better be a good one

Therein lies the real dilemma for the Israeli government. The decades-long delusion that Israel could ignore, manage, shrink, or simply forget its conflict with its Palestinian neighbors has been a costly blunder. Netanyahu imagined that he could sustain the occupation of the West Bank without hampering the country’s continued diplomatic and economic success. But as other Israelis have long warned, this was a bubble ultimately due to burst. The Iranian regime is arming Palestinians and driving them toward its own murderous agenda vis-à-vis Israelis. But Israel’s continued subjugation of Palestinians is what allows such a festering wound to exist in the first place, giving Tehran an easy issue to exploit.

Allying with Tehran, doing its bidding, and bringing terror upon innocent Israeli civilians will not bring Palestinians any positive outcomes. Seven million Jewish Israelis and the State of Israel are not going anywhere, and so long as Palestinians don’t seek a strategy predicated upon coexistence, they will find no path forward. We have been here before: During the Second Intifada of 2000–05, the murders of Israeli civilians by Hamas and other Palestinian factions served only to weaken Israel’s pro-peace camp and lay the ground for the rise of the far right. A similar outcome today will not be in either society’s interest. Nor will it help the Iranian people, many of whom have long shown their opposition to the regime’s anti-Israel obsession, and some of whom are already protesting the regime’s support for the Palestinian attacks. They have no interest in a conflict with Israel.

As he was hurrying to the northern front on Saturday, a reserve senior officer of the Israel Defense Forces told Haaretz: “We were living in an imaginary reality for years.” He was talking about Israeli intelligence failures, but an equally imaginary reality is that Israelis can have normal lives so long as millions of Palestinians don’t. We can only hope that responsible actors in the region and beyond can bring about a cease-fire in the days ahead, before the conflagration gets any bigger. But in the long term, countering Tehran’s murderous agenda will require a durable solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict itself.

Arash Azizi is a senior lecturer in history and political science at Clemson University. His new book, What Iranians Want: Women, Life, Freedom, will be published in January 2024.

The Atlantic · by Arash Azizi · October 8, 2023

17. US expedites munitions for Israel, moves ships and aircraft into region after Hamas attack

Can the US industrial base handle multiple conflicts? What if the US military were engaged somewhere around the world? Is this another wake up call for us? How are our adversaries assessing this.

Then again our ability to support multiple contingencies may contribute to deterrence if we do that support well. We need to make our adversaries fear our Arsenal of democracy.

US expedites munitions for Israel, moves ships and aircraft into region after Hamas attack - Breaking Defense

The US "will be rapidly providing the Israel Defense Forces with additional equipment and resources, including munitions. The first security assistance will begin moving today and arriving in the coming days,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Sunday.

breakingdefense.com · by Aaron Mehta · October 8, 2023

Rockets fired by Palestinian militants from Gaza City are intercepted by the Israeli Iron Dome defence missile system in the early hours of October 8, 2023. (EYAD BABA/AFP via Getty Images)

WASHINGTON — In the wake of this weekend’s stunning attacks in Israel, the US is beefing up its presence in the Middle East while working to speed up weapon deliveries for the Israeli Defense Force.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced on Sunday that he was ordering the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group towards the eastern Mediterranean, while taking “steps to augment U.S. Air Force F-35, F-15, F-16, and A-10 fighter aircraft squadrons in the region.”

Additionally, the Biden administration “will be rapidly providing the Israel Defense Forces with additional equipment and resources, including munitions. The first security assistance will begin moving today and arriving in the coming days,” Austin said. “Strengthening our joint force posture, in addition to the materiel support that we will rapidly provide to Israel, underscores the United States’ ironclad support for the Israel Defense Forces and the Israeli people.”

The Ford Strike Group includes the Ford itself, the missile cruiser USS Normandy (CG 60), and the Arleigh-Burke-class guided missile destroyers USS Thomas Hudner (DDG 116), USS Ramage (DDG 61), USS Carney (DDG 64), and USS Roosevelt (DDG 80), according to a Pentagon statement.

On Saturday local time, Hamas forces launched an unprecedented, multi-pronged assault on Israel, which reportedly included fighters traveling by air, land and sea. Hamas, the Palestinian group designated terrorists by the US, reportedly killed scores of Israelis and captured dozens of civilians and military personnel, who are now expected to be treated as hostages. Media has reported over 1,100 dead from fire on both sides in Hamas’s initial assault as well as Israel’s aggressive retaliation with strikes into Gaza — and Israeli officials warned that this was only the start of what will be a long-running conflict.

The raid seemed to catch Israel’s vaunted intelligence services unaware, with towns and military bases along the Gaza border attacked before any resistance could be mounted and leading Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to declare that his country is now at “war” with the Iran-backed Hamas.

The conflict threatens to upend a period of relative peace in the region, throwing a wrench into both Netanyahu’s political challenges at home and the Biden administration’s hopes for a Saudi-Israeli peace deal. It could also force the Pentagon to once again turn back to the region in more serious terms, at a time when it has made a significant effort to disentangle from the Middle East in order to focus on the Indo-Pacific.

18. Israel Faces Its 9/11

Israel Faces Its 9/11

Amid the shock and horror, the nation stands together with moral clarity and resolve.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/israel-faces-its-9-11-80cca24e?utm

By Gil Troy

Updated Oct. 8, 2023 12:20 pm ET

Israelis in Tel Aviv take cover after an air-raid siren on Saturday. PHOTO: AMIR LEVY/GETTY IMAGES

Jerusalem

Historical analogies are always tricky, but it’s hard to avoid the thought that Saturday was Israel’s 9/11. At least 600 are dead, hundreds wounded, and possibly dozens kidnapped in a country the size of New Jersey. Death, destruction and mayhem rained down on the Jewish state. But so did a moral clarity and resolve that characterizes democracies under attack—and that terrorists always underestimate.

It shouldn’t be necessary to say, but the vicious, wide-scale attack Hamas launched against Israelis sleeping at home, waiting in bus stops, walking the streets, going to synagogue, living in nursing homes, is reprehensible and inexcusable. The videos Palestinians have proudly posted—of terrorists going house-to-house, an Israeli man in shorts handcuffed, a woman screaming on a motorcycle, being taken to Gaza as hostages—are chilling. The story of Yoni Asher, 37—whose wife, 5- and 3-year-old daughters and mother-in-law were apparently abducted to Gaza—is heartbreaking. Videos of an Israeli woman’s corpse being spit on by terrorists are barbaric.

One wonders if any of those left-wingers who have spent years justifying and thus encouraging Palestinian terrorism will re-evaluate their narrative, of poor defenseless Palestinians victimized by Israeli bullies.

The 9/11 analogy goes deeper than the sheer evil terrorists perpetrated and the delight their enablers took in the massive loss of life. America on Sept. 10, 2001, was complacent. The 9/11 Commission reported not only that “the nation was unprepared” for the attack, but that President Bill Clinton had passed over opportunities to kill Osama bin Laden. It turned out that hours before the attack, Mr. Clinton said of Bin Laden that “I nearly got him” but he feared the collateral damage. Israel has been too divided over domestic politics, ignoring that the true dangers lurked outside the country.

Both Sept. 11 and Oct. 7 demonstrate the perils of being too sentimental about your enemies. Since 2005, when Israel withdrew from all of Gaza for the sake of peace, it has repeatedly struggled with Mr. Clinton’s dilemma: What do you do when your enemy hides behind civilians? A functional nation is most responsible for protecting its own citizens, especially when threatened by adversaries who respect no rules of war or simple decency.

Israel needs to fight this latest battle with a clarity that its many previous conflicts with Gaza lacked. We all need to remember the assurances in 2005, that Gaza would flourish once the Israeli “occupiers” left. We need to recall how Hamas brutally seized power in June 2007, slaughtering rivals and throwing Mohammed Sweirki, an officer in the Palestinian Presidential Guard, off the top of a 15-story apartment building.

And Israel needs to do what it takes to protect its citizens. As President Biden tweeted on Saturday: “Israel has a right to defend itself—full stop.” Hamas doesn’t care about Israeli life—or Palestinian life for that matter. Palestinian culture, however, worships land. This round of fighting mustn’t end until Israel has created an extended buffer zone protecting every Israeli, even if it requires bulldozing houses and evacuating Gazans.

They will call it “ethnic cleansing,” but it is wholly justified self-defense. Going forward, any violence of any kind from the Gaza Strip should be met by an expansion of the buffer zone, 10 yards at a time.

This Saturday morning, my family and I awoke to sirens in Jerusalem at 8:20 a.m.—approximately two hours after Hamas terrorists started swarming Israel’s border less than 50 miles from our home. Despite three sirens over the next 40 minutes, we kept to our routine, and I went to pray with friends in our regular outdoor minyan, an informal prayer group we started during Covid. We celebrated this special Sabbath, which coincided with Simchat Torah, the Jewish holiday rejoicing in the teaching and values of the five Books of Moses. We ended by spontaneously singing “Ani Ma’amin,” the Holocaust martyr’s ballad of eternal faith, and “Hatikvah,” Israel’s national anthem.

Amid the chaos—and seven more sirens—I stood outside the front yard where we pray. Guarding 40 of your friends, unarmed, with terrorists all over your country rampaging, simplifies things in a profound way. When you know what you are willing to die for, you also know what you are willing to live for. That sense of purpose is why Israel will prevail. It makes clear what seems from afar the great anomaly of Israel, which every Israeli understands up close. Israel may have brutal enemies and continuing political challenges. But Israelis rank as among the world’s happiest people, because they share a sense of common destiny, a sense of community, and a sense of purpose that gives their lives meaning amid the danger.

Mr. Troy is a distinguished scholar of North American history at McGill University and editor of “Theodor Herzl: Zionist Writings.”

19. Opinion: In the name of health care freedom, millions of veterans may lose theirs

Excerpts:

The net effect of these bills will be to tear at the very fabric of the VA. A highly sophisticated public health care network could be diluted and damaged, transforming from a world-class provider into an insurance payer for private care.

Unrestricted access to private care is also exceptionally pricey, estimated to cost two to three times what’s being spent by the VA system. To counter excessive private sector expenses, the number of eligible veterans, and the extent of their benefits, would almost certainly be slashed.

Policies exalting health care freedom, preference, and choice exact communal, medical, and financial harm. We must never blindly succumb to this rhetoric, nor abandon the current and future generations of veterans who depend on the VA.

Opinion: In the name of health care freedom, millions of veterans may lose theirs

The grim danger of these bills is being slyly obscured by their authors.

BY RUSSELL LEMLE , JASPER CRAVEN | PUBLISHED OCT 6, 2023 6:53 PM EDT

taskandpurpose.com · by Russell Lemle · October 6, 2023

The realm of veterans health care policymaking has, for a decade, been dominated by a dangerous libertarian fallacy, namely that greater personal choice and less government involvement are unequivocally advantageous. Allowing more options, lawmakers and advocates contend, benefits every veteran. It’s even framed as a patriotic “defense of freedom.”

A pair of bills being actively considered in Congress represent the culmination of this fervent, albeit deeply unfounded, conviction. For the first time, powerful Senators are pushing for veterans to have total leeway to decide where they wish to receive care — at a Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) facility or in the private sector.

The impact of these proposals will be calamitous. In the name of health care freedom, millions of veterans will lose VA choices, options they not only depend on but are of superior caliber. With in-house care as the default, the VA consistently furnishes integrated health care of higher quality and with shorter wait times than the private sector.

Due to previously passed laws, millions of veteran patients and billions of dollars have already poured into private providers. To understand the consequence of these new bills, water provides a helpful allegory. Imagine, for a moment, two hillside landowners who share the same stream. One lives uphill, near the stream’s source. The other has a dwelling downstream. For years, the two households have had ample supply for their respective needs. But then, the household up the hill plants crops and irrigates them, diverting an increasing amount from the stream. In short order, the downstream home’s water dwindles, and its owner is forced to move.

Veterans’ health care is now nearing this type of inflection point. Should the private sector obtain unfettered upstream dollars, too little will be left downstream, leading to the closure of VA programs and units. This will imperil the 2.7 million men and women who rely exclusively on the VA for all of their health care needs and the 1.6 million who use it for most of their care. Many have catastrophic war-related ailments, like lost limbs or traumatic brain injuries, which civilian providers are ill-equipped to treat. In July, the Disabled American Veterans urgently sounded the alarm over this future with an article entitled “A Broken Promise: What if VA Care Goes Away?”

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The grim danger of these bills is being slyly obscured by their authors. Take U.S. Senator Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), author of the misleadingly titled Veterans Health Care Freedom Act. Her bill would drastically modify the process by which enrolled veterans obtain care, allowing them to utilize – and overutilize – private providers without VA authorization, referral, or oversight. VA’s only role would be to pick up the tab.

The second legislation, the Veterans’ HEALTH Act introduced by Senate Veterans Affairs Committee Ranking Member Jerry Moran (R-Kan.) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), has the same prerogatives, except that it starts on a smaller scale. Another bill provision would offer private care to veterans simply if that is their “preference.”

Where would the money come from to pay for the ensuing explosion of care? Blackburn’s bill implements a draconian mechanism in which private sector expenses are directly deducted from VA hospital and clinic budgets. Diverting these essential streams of VA funding would force reductions in staff, programs, clinics – and even hospitals. This will propel more veterans into the community, which will further drain money from VA facilities, leading to more cutbacks.

It’s a looming vicious cycle. VA Secretary Denis McDonough himself recently forecast that should the use of private sector care continue increasing, “VA medical facilities, particularly those in rural areas, may not be able to sustain sufficient workload to operate in their current capacity.” There are signs that this spiral may have already started. In a recent survey of 2,000 VA employees, half indicated that, during the last few years, they’d witnessed closures of VA services.

The net effect of these bills will be to tear at the very fabric of the VA. A highly sophisticated public health care network could be diluted and damaged, transforming from a world-class provider into an insurance payer for private care.

Unrestricted access to private care is also exceptionally pricey, estimated to cost two to three times what’s being spent by the VA system. To counter excessive private sector expenses, the number of eligible veterans, and the extent of their benefits, would almost certainly be slashed.

Policies exalting health care freedom, preference, and choice exact communal, medical, and financial harm. We must never blindly succumb to this rhetoric, nor abandon the current and future generations of veterans who depend on the VA.

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taskandpurpose.com · by Russell Lemle · October 6, 2023

20. A father reflects on the death of his son during the 2017 Niger ambush

Some very important course of action decision criteria here for policy makers and political leaders.

Excerpt:

To those in leadership who make decisions to support foreign conflicts, to send U.S. military forces into harm’s way; who could, in the not-too-distant future, commit U.S. forces to hostilities that will invariably result in American deaths, I say this: If a conflict is not worth the death of your own son or daughter, if you are not willing to send your own son or daughter to death’s door to return home in a flag-draped coffin, don’t send ours.

A father reflects on the death of his son during the 2017 Niger ambush

militarytimes.com · by Henry Black · October 6, 2023

Oct. 4, 2017, four U.S. soldiers were killed in an ambush in Niger: my son, Staff Sgt. Bryan C. Black and his teammates Staff Sgt. Jeremiah Johnson, Sgt. LaDavid Johnson and Staff Sgt. Dustin Wright. Five Nigerien troops were also killed. These deaths shattered families and left them grieving.

The current unrest in Niger has provided an opportunity for analysts to revisit the ambush of the Operational Detachment Alpha, or ODA, 3212. Original statements from top military leaders placed the blame for the failed mission on the soldiers. A later investigation determined that blame could not be limited to 3212, and subsequent reporting on the ambush suggested that primary blame was not with the soldiers. In the years since, the Army posthumously awarded my son and his teammates valor medals for their actions — and also recognized the Nigerien soldiers who fought in the ambush.

Reliving the story of this ambush year after year is difficult. Once again, grief from the deaths of Bryan and his teammates escapes the imperfect emotional walls I have built to contain it. This rekindled sorrow, six years after my son’s death, has led me to reflect on the terrible cost of war.

I remember my son’s brightest days. When I was serving in Iraq in September 2004, I received an e-mail from Bryan:

“Hi Dad! …I’m dating a great Christian girl. Her name is Michelle and I’m pretty sure I’m going to marry her. I think I will pop the question in January.”

They married in July 2005. It was a joyous day filled with hope for a bright future, and it was a day of miracles as before our eyes, it seemed as if God reversed the course of an approaching storm that threatened the outdoor ceremony.

Bryan Black with his wife Michelle on their wedding day in July 2005. (Courtesy of Henry Black)

Bryan gifted me a book on Father’s Day 2010. Inside the book is a note: “Hi Dad! I hope you enjoy this book. Happy Birthday and Fathers Day. I’m lucky to have a great dad like you and my kids are lucky to have you as a grandpa! Love, Bryan.” The book went on a shelf, but the note carved a place in my heart.

Six Father’s Days have come and gone since the loss of Bryan and his teammates. Six years of sons without their fathers, of fathers without their sons — a cost of war that is never paid off, a debt that will continuously be borne by generations.

Bryan Black's sons Ezekiel and Isaac visit their father's grave. (Courtesy of Henry Black)

I remember standing next to Bryan’s wife, Michelle, on Oct. 5, 2017, as she told her two young sons, Ezekiel and Isaac, 11 and 9, that their dad would not be coming home. A few moments later I was alone with my grandson Isaac. With tears streaming down my face, I said “If there was anything I could do to bring your dad home, I would do it. But I can’t…” And Isaac through his own unimaginable grief reaches out a young hand to comfort me, to pat me on the back again and again as I weep.

In January 2018, I was washing dishes in Michelle’s kitchen. “Hey grandpa,” I heard from the dining room. I turned and saw my grandson Ezekiel. “Hey Zeke,” I replied. Zeke looked at me and said, “Grandpa, I’m sorry you lost your son.” Time slowed as I looked at him, surprised and amazed at his words.

“Thanks Zeke. I’m sorry you lost your dad,” I said. Zeke bowed his head slightly, sadness etched in his young features. “Yea” Zeke replied, then he turned around and slowly went upstairs. I watched him go. Pain held me in place for a long moment.

“Your dad was a quiet person,

Always thinking of the other fellow first …

What love he would have showered on you

If he had lived to see you grow up.”

This quote is from a “Letter to a Child.” It is inscribed on a wall in Seattle’s “Garden of Remembrance” memorial, dedicated to the memory of over 8,000 Washington state residents who have made the ultimate sacrifice. Bryan’s name is inscribed on that wall, and the quote reflects both his character and the profound loss his sons now bear.

I keep Bryan’s 2010 Father’s Day note on a bookshelf in my study, visible as I sit at my desk.

Images of both the fallen and bereaved, whose lives and stories have been woven into the fabric of my life, live in my mind’s eye, always on the periphery, but sometimes dominating my field of view. I have been weighing the heavy price paid by the fallen. Were their sacrifices truly in defense of the Constitution they swore to defend, or for some other less noble cause?

The horrific costs of war are not confined to the United States, to its service members, fathers, mothers, wives, husbands, children, siblings and loved ones. No, the human cost of the post-9/11 era is so enormous that it is largely ignored, removed from our community’s conscience. The Iraq wars: over 300,000 dead. Afghanistan: 176,000 dead. And over 440,000 arguably associated deaths in Pakistan, Syria and elsewhere. Taken together, over 900,000 dead. Thousands upon thousands of shattered lives mirroring my own, my family’s; mirroring the shattered families of Jeremiah, Dustin and LaDavid; mirroring the shattered families of the five Nigerien troops who also fell.

To those in leadership who make decisions to support foreign conflicts, to send U.S. military forces into harm’s way; who could, in the not-too-distant future, commit U.S. forces to hostilities that will invariably result in American deaths, I say this: If a conflict is not worth the death of your own son or daughter, if you are not willing to send your own son or daughter to death’s door to return home in a flag-draped coffin, don’t send ours.

Hank Black retired from the Marine Corps in 1999 and recently retired from the FBI. He resides in Washington state.

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21. Israel and Palestinian war: What you need to know right now

Israel and Palestinian war: What you need to know right now

Reuters

Oct 9 (Reuters) - The Israeli military on Monday said it struck hundreds of Hamas and Islamic Jihad targets in the Gaza Strip overnight and had sent four combat divisions south where it continued to battle the Islamist militants. The death toll from the fighting stands at 1,100.

ISRAEL TARGETS GAZA

* Fighting between Israeli forces and Islamist group Hamas was ongoing at seven or eight locations near Gaza two days after Hamas gunmen killed 700 Israelis and abducted dozens more in the deadliest raid into Israeli territory since Egypt and Syria's attacks in the Yom Kippur war 50 years ago. Hamas fighters also continued to cross into Israel from Gaza, said Israeli military.

* Israeli fighter jets, helicopters and artillery struck over 500 Hamas and Islamic Jihad targets in Gaza overnight. The Palestinian health ministry said more than 400 people including scores of children had been killed in the attacks since Saturday, which it said also hit housing blocks and a mosque.

* Israel has called in around 100,000 soldiers, said military spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Jonathan Conricus.

* Several Americans were killed by Hamas attackers, a White House National Security Council spokesperson confirmed. Thailand said 12 of its nationals had been killed and 11 kidnapped. Hungary evacuated 215 people from Israel by air overnight

GLOBAL MARKETS ROILED

* Oil prices were up more than $3 a barrel in Asian trade on Monday as the violence deepened political uncertainty across the Middle East and raised concerns about supplies from Iran.

* Several international air carriers have suspended flight services with Tel Aviv in light of the Hamas attack, saying they are waiting for conditions to improve before resuming.

HAMAS PLANNING

*Hamas carried out a careful campaign of deception to pull of its stunning attack, accounts from Hamas and Israeli sources show.

UNITED STATES AID

* U.S. President Joe Biden spoke to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for the second straight day on Sunday, offering "my full support for the people of Israel in the face of an unprecedented and appalling assault by Hamas terrorists."

*U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said that the U.S. will send multiple military ships and aircraft closer to Israel.

Compiled by Brad Brooks and Michael Perry; Editing by Stephen Coates

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Reuters

​22. How Hamas duped Israel as it planned devastating attack

​Anyone who discounts deception because they think it is impossible to conduct successfully in the modern information age is going to put their nation at risk. The Hamas attack may go down in history as one of the best deception operations in the modern era.

And they must have employed excellent OPSEC to make this work.

I wonder how all the recent developments factored into this, e.g., the Abraham Accords and the improving Israeli Arab relations? Did this create complacency (the idea that peace was about to break out all over) that Hamas (and Iran) exploited? 

How Hamas duped Israel as it planned devastating attack

• A careful campaign of deception ensured Israel was caught off guard when the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas launched its attack, enabling a force using bulldozers, hang gliders and motorbikes to take on the Middle East's most powerful army.

Reuters · by Samia Nakhoul

• Summary
• Hamas gave impression economy was in focus, says source
• Even in plain sight, Hamas trained for attack, says source
• Israel misread training as posturing, source adds
• 'This is our 9/11,' says army spokesman, 'They got us.'

Oct 9 (Reuters) - A careful campaign of deception ensured Israel was caught off guard when the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas launched its devastating attack, enabling a force using bulldozers, hang gliders and motorbikes to take on the Middle East's most powerful army.

Saturday's assault, the worst breach in Israel's defences since Arab armies waged war in 1973, followed two years of subterfuge by Hamas that involved keeping its military plans under wraps and convincing Israel it did not want a fight.

While Israel was led to believe it was containing a war-weary Hamas by providing economic incentives to Gazan workers, the group's fighters were being trained and drilled, often in plain sight, a source close to Hamas said.

This source provided many of the details for the account of the attack and its buildup that has been pieced together by Reuters. Three sources within Israel's security establishment, who like others asked not to be identified, also contributed to this account.

"Hamas gave Israel the impression that it was not ready for a fight," said the source close to Hamas, describing plans for the most startling assault since the Yom Kippur War 50 years ago when Egypt and Syria surprised Israel and made it fight for its survival.

"Hamas used an unprecedented intelligence tactic to mislead Israel over the last months, by giving a public impression that it was not willing to go into a fight or confrontation with Israel while preparing for this massive operation," the source said.

Israel concedes it was caught off guard by an attack timed to coincide with the Jewish Sabbath and a religious holiday. Hamas fighters stormed into Israeli towns, killing 700 Israelis and abducting dozens. Israel has killed more than 400 Palestinians in its retaliation on Gaza since then.

"This is our 9/11," said Major Nir Dinar, spokesperson for the Israeli Defence Forces. "They got us."

"They surprised us and they came fast from many spots - both from the air and the ground and the sea."

Osama Hamdan, the Hamas representative in Lebanon, told Reuters the attack showed Palestinians had the will to achieve their goals "regardless of Israel's military power and capabilities."

'THEY RAN RIOT'

In one of the most striking elements of their preparations, Hamas constructed a mock Israeli settlement in Gaza where they practiced a military landing and trained to storm it, the source close to Hamas said, adding they even made videos of the manoeuvres.

"Israel surely saw them but they were convinced that Hamas wasn't keen on getting into a confrontation," the source said.

Meanwhile, Hamas sought to convince Israel it cared more about ensuring that workers in Gaza, a narrow strip of land with more than two million residents, had access to jobs across the border and had no interest in starting a new war.

"Hamas was able to build a whole image that it was not ready for a military adventure against Israel," the source said.

Since a 2021 war with Hamas, Israel has sought to provide a basic level of economic stability in Gaza by offering incentives including thousands of permits so Gazans can work in Israel or the West Bank, where salaries in construction, agriculture or service jobs can be 10 times the level of pay in Gaza.

"We believed that the fact that they were coming in to work and bringing money into Gaza would create a certain level of calm. We were wrong," another Israeli army spokesperson said.

An Israeli security source acknowledged Israel's security services were duped by Hamas. "They caused us to think they wanted money," the source said. "And all the time they were involved in exercises/drills until they ran riot."

As part of its subterfuge in the past two years, Hamas refrained from military operations against Israel, even as another Gaza-based Islamist armed group known as Islamic Jihad launched a series of its own assaults or rocket attacks.

NO INKLING

The restraint shown by Hamas drew public criticism from some supporters, again aimed at building an impression that Hamas had economic concerns not a new war on its mind, the source said.

In the West Bank, controlled by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and his Fatah group, there were those who mocked Hamas for going quiet. In one Fatah statement published in June 2022, the group accused Hamas leaders of fleeing to Arab capitals to live in "luxurious hotels and villas" leaving their people to poverty in Gaza.

A second Israeli security source said there was a period when Israel believed the movement's leader in Gaza, Yahya Al-Sinwar, was preoccupied with managing Gaza "rather than killing Jews". At the same time, Israel turned its focus away from Hamas as it pushed for a deal to normalise relations with Saudi Arabia, he added.

Israel has long prided itself on its ability to infiltrate and monitor Islamist groups. As a consequence, the source close to Hamas said, a crucial part of the plan was to avoid leaks.

Many Hamas leaders were unaware of the plans and, while training, the 1,000 fighters deployed in the assault had no inkling of the exact purpose of the exercises, the source added.

When the day came, the operation was divided into four parts, the Hamas source said, describing the various elements.

The first move was a barrage of 3,000 rockets fired from Gaza that coincided with incursions by fighters who flew hang gliders, or motorised paragliders, over the border, the source said. Israel has previously said 2,500 rockets were fired at first.

Once the fighters on hang-gliders were on the ground, they secured the terrain so an elite commando unit could storm the fortified electronic and cement wall built by Israel to prevent infiltration.

The fighters used explosives to breach the barriers and then sped across on motorbikes. Bulldozers widened the gaps and more fighters entered in four-wheel drives, scenes that witnesses described.

'HUGE FAILURE'

A commando unit attacked the Israeli army's southern Gaza headquarters and jammed its communications, preventing personnel from calling commanders or each other, the source said.

The final part involved moving hostages to Gaza, mostly achieved early in the attack, the source close to Hamas said.

In one well-publicised hostage taking, fighters abducted party-goers fleeing a rave near the kibbutz of Re'im near Gaza. Social media footage showed dozens of people running through fields and on a road as gunshots were heard.

"How could this party happen this close (to Gaza)?" the Israeli security source said.

The Israeli security source said Israeli troops were below full strength in the south near Gaza because some had been redeployed to the West Bank to protect Israeli settlers following a surge of violence between them and Palestinian militants.

"They (Hamas) exploited that," the source said.

Dennis Ross, a former Middle East negotiator who is now at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said Israel had been distracted by violence in the West Bank, leading to a "thin, under-prepared presence in the south."

"Hamas probably succeeded beyond their expectation. Now they will have to deal with an Israel determined to decimate them," he said.

Retired General Yaakov Amidror, a former national security adviser to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, told reporters on Sunday the assault represented "a huge failure of the intelligence system and the military apparatus in the south."

Amidror, chairman of the National Security Council from April 2011-November 2013 and now senior fellow with the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, said some of Israel's allies had been saying that Hamas had acquired "more responsibility".

"We stupidly began to believe that it was true," he said. "So, we made a mistake. We are not going to make this mistake again and we will destroy Hamas, slowly but surely."

Reporting by Samia Nakhoul in Dubai and Jonathan Saul in London; Additional reporting by Ali Sawafta in the West Bank and Matt Spetalnick in Washington, Writing by William Maclean; Editing by Edmund Blair

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Reuters · by Samia Nakhoul

23.  Israel Orders Complete Siege of Gaza

Potentially very long and bloody.

This statement will be severely criticized in awesome quarters:

"I have given an order--Gaza will be under complete closure. There will be no electricity, food or fuel [delivered to Gaza],” said Gallant in remarks at Israel’s Southern Command, according to a transcript released by the Israeli government.

Will this be interpreted to be a violation of the law of land warfare? Not to enter into "whataboutism" but we should not overlook the extreme brutality of the treatment and deliberate targeting of Israeli and foreign civilians in the Hamas attack. 

Israel at War With Hamas: Live Updates

Firefights raged as Israeli troops tried to expel Hamas intruders and evacuate civilians.

Last Updated: 

Oct. 9, 2023 at 7:02 AM EDT

46 min ago

Israel Orders Complete Siege of Gaza

By

Jared Malsin

An injured child arrives at Al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City. (haitham imad/Shutterstock)

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/israel-hamas-gaza-rockets-attack-palestinians/card/israeli-orders-complete-siege-of-gaza-hEbz58wJocbxoX4gP0ON

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said he had ordered a total siege of the Gaza Strip, cutting off food, fuel and electricity to the more than two million Palestinians living in the enclave.

"I have given an order--Gaza will be under complete closure. There will be no electricity, food or fuel [delivered to Gaza],” said Gallant in remarks at Israel’s Southern Command, according to a transcript released by the Israeli government.

Gaza, a territory about the size of Washington DC, depends on deliveries via Israel and Egypt for food, fuel, medicine and other essential goods.

Israel imposed a blockade on Gaza after Hamas took control of the strip in 2007, banning almost all Palestinians from entering or leaving without special permission. The territory's economy had been largely integrated into Israel's following the 1967 occupation and remains dependent on imports of supplies, particularly food, through its border crossings with Israel and Egypt. Egypt has also severely limited Palestinians' ability to cross its border in the south of the enclave.

24. Opinion | Hamas attack is an intelligence failure that may take Israel years to unravel

And a mandatory PME case study for years to come.

Opinion | Hamas attack is an intelligence failure that may take Israel years to unravel

The Washington Post · by David Ignatius · October 8, 2023

The vicious Hamas assault of terrorism on Saturday truly was Israel’s 9/11 — not simply in the anguished demand for revenge that has followed the attack, but in the strange blindness that preceded it.

True intelligence failures result not simply from a lack of information but an inability to understand it. Israelis knew the malevolent hatred that animated Hamas and its backers in Iran. What they didn’t appreciate was the creativity and competence of their adversaries. This was a level of organized malice that was, literally, unthinkable.

Just as Americans never imagined that the Muslim fundamentalists of al-Qaeda would have the perverse genius to fly airplanes into buildings, Israeli analysts don’t seem to have appreciated that Hamas fighters could escape the barricaded compound of Gaza with paragliders. Israelis evidently didn’t credit their foe’s ability to operate simultaneously across air, sea and land. And they certainly didn’t appreciate Hamas’s and its allies’ ability to keep secrets.

Will we learn, as we did after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, in the United States, that the information necessary to prevent the attacks was in the system? Somewhere, the lights may have been “blinking red.” But in the haunting phrase that came to explain the 9/11 failure, Israelis evidently couldn’t “connect the dots.” They couldn’t see what, in retrospect, was staring them in the face.

In the United States in 2001, one big problem was that the CIA and the FBI were intense rivals and didn’t trust each other. They wouldn’t share (or when they did, couldn’t comprehend) the intelligence that was in their separate silos. I don’t know enough about Israeli intelligence to draw any firm parallels. But the intelligence world always has professional rivalries and jealousies. What’s more, this was a moment when top political leadership was so disorganized that it couldn’t have imposed order.

The Israel of 2023 — in the months that preceded the Gaza disaster — has been a domestic political nightmare. The country was more divided than I have seen it in more than 40 years of reporting there. The security establishment — meaning Mossad, military intelligence and the domestic security service known as Shin Bet — was bitterly opposed to the fragile government headed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. And it showed.

The intelligence elite believed that Netanyahu was wrecking Israel by assaulting its Supreme Court. I say that because several senior Mossad officers, including a former director, conveyed that message to me directly in recent months. The security elite is secular; it lives in Tel Aviv and Haifa; it listens to Mozart. It deeply resented Bibi’s alliance with ultra-Orthodox parties who generally don’t serve in the military and espouse a very different, much more religious Israel than the one created in courageous service by the security barons and their predecessors.

Israel seemed to be coming apart in the months before Hamas fighters broke through the Gaza cage. Thousands of Israelis were marching in the streets of Tel Aviv to protest Netanyahu’s attempt to alter what they saw as the fundamental character of the state. Did that political chaos contribute to the Gaza attacks? I don’t know. But surely, the domestic feuds of the past few months might have led Hamas and its backers in Tehran to believe that Israel was internally weak and, perhaps, vulnerable.

America before 9/11 knew something of that fragility. President George W. Bush came to office after a contested election that could only be resolved by the Supreme Court. Our divisions then seem like nothing compared with now. But the 9/11 Commission documented how the Bush team didn’t pay adequate attention to warnings from CIA Director George Tenet and his analysts of a possible al-Qaeda attack.

Intelligence failures involve a strange hubris. The tough guys get sucker punched. As journalists sometimes say, people start “reading their own clips,” and believing their vaunted reputations. Mossad and its fellow agencies have lived off their mythic aura for generations; they’re celebrated as lions in novels and TV shows even as their American brethren are ridiculed as “clowns in action.” But sometimes, tough guys don’t see the dangers that more cautious people might.

The Iranians and their Hamas allies play a more complicated game than some Israelis, in their justified hatred of the mullahs, might realize. Iran was genuinely threatened by Israel’s plan to normalize relations with Saudi Arabia and, in the process, neuter the Palestinian issue as Tehran’s trump card. In its consternation, Iran was considering an opening to the United States, even as its allies were planning a vicious attack, Arab sources tell me.

Intelligence failures begin with overconfidence. People who are running scared sometimes look more closely in the shadows.

A final thought: When we say that the Gaza outrage was an Israeli version of 9/11, we should remember the other big lesson of that catastrophe, other than our failure to see it coming. The United States overreacted. It didn’t simply take revenge and destroy its enemies. It sought to remake the Middle East, with long, mostly fruitless, wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Israeli power at its best is calculated and ruthlessly efficient. I hope that Israel, in avenging this assault, doesn’t create future problems that are even worse.

The Washington Post · by David Ignatius · October 8, 2023

25. Special Operations News - October 9, 2023 | SOF News

Special Operations News - October 9, 2023 | SOF News

sof.news · by SOF News · October 8, 2023

Curated news, analysis, and commentary about special operations, national security, and conflicts around the world.

Photo / Image: Staff Sgt. John Rosine, 20th Special Operations Squadron special missions aviator, observes the landscape on his assigned CV-22 Osprey at Melrose Air Force Range, Melrose, N.M., Sept. 26, 2023. (U.S. Air Force Photo by 2nd Lt. Merit Davey)

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SOF News

Cuts to ARSOF. It is looking more and more likely that the Army will be making some significant cuts to the Army Special Operations Forces organizational structure. Faced with a big recruiting problem the Army is looking for SOF to fill the personnel gaps. Cuts could be as high as 3,000 personnel, as much as 10% of the force. Some cuts would be enablers (staff and support) and some of the ‘operators’. Last year there were about 700 cuts to SOF forces.

• “Army Plans Major Cuts to Special Operations Forces, Including Green Berets”, by Godon Lubold, The Wall Street Journal, October 5, 2023.
• “Congressional veteran stunned and appalled at possible special operations cuts”, Washington Examiner, October 5, 2023.
• “Proposed USASOC Cuts: A Threat to Global Security”, Special Operations Association of America (SOAA), October 6, 2023.

CoS ASD SOLIC Under Fire. Over 30 U.S. Senators have signed a letter (PDF, US Senate) sent to Secretary of Defense Austin expressing their concerns about Ariane Tabatyabai, the current chief of staff to the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations and Low Intensity Conflict (SOLIC). Apparently, she was part of a so-called Iran Experts Initiative that senior Iranian Foreign Ministry officials initiated to bolster Tehran’s image and positions on global security issues. In September 2023, a large cache of Iranian government correspondence and emails connected her with the Iran Experts Initiative. In the past, she has been accused of echoing the Iranian regime’s talking points. Tabatyabai is an Iranian American scholar of political science. She was born in Tabriz, Iran.

SOF and Psychedelic Drugs. Certain drugs have been tested and found to lower depression and anxiety as well as improve cognitive functioning in a sample of U.S. special operations forces veterans. Ohio State University. “Psychedelics improve mental health, cognition in special ops veterans.” ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 5 October 2023.

5th SFG(A) SEA CoR. The 5th Special Forces Group conducted a Change of Responsibility ceremony at Fort Campbell, Kentucky on October 5, 2023. Command Sgt. Maj. Joshua King passed on his responsibilities as the top senior advisor to Command Sgt. Maj. Travis Esterby.

Congressional Gold Medal for MACV-SOG – Sign the Petition. The U.S. Military Assistance Command, Vietnam, Studies and Observations Group was an elite special operations unit that played a vital role during the Vietnam War. During its existence from 1964 to 1972, MACV-SOG conducted highly classified and dangerous covert operations behind enemy lines in Southeast Asia. A petition has been started to call upon the U.S. Congress to award MACV-SOG the Congressional Gold Medal. You can sign the petition here at change.org.

Navy’s HSC-85 Squadron. In August 2023 the U.S. Navy deactivated its only special operations rotary-wing aviation support squadron. the shutdown is expected to save about $300 million over the next several years. However, the lack of a dedicated special operations support Squadron in the Navy could negatively affect the operational readiness of the U.S. in the Indo-Pacific region. “Reconsider Shutting Down the Navy’s Only Special Operations Support Squadron”, Proceedings, U.S. Naval Institute, October 2023.

Robin Sage. For decades volunteers in the hills and woods of North Carolina have assisted in supporting culminating exercise of the Special Forces Qualification Course (SFQC) known as Robin Sage. The two-week training event is held about four times a year in the fictional country of Pineland. “How hundreds of volunteers help test Army Special Forces candidates”, Army Times, October 4, 2023.

International SOF

SOF Command in Romania. Romanian president Klaus Iohannis requested the Parliament to approve the establishment of a Regional Special Operations Component Command (HQR-SOCC) on the territory of Romania in partnership with Bulgaria. The initiative will establish a structure in the Black Sea region belonging to NATO. It will fill the need for a command-control structure (C2) of the Special Operations Forces (SOS) for the Black Sea region. “NATO to establish Special Operations Command in Romania”, Romania-Insider.com, October 6, 2023.

Southern Star 2023. A 3,700-kilometer area of operations, covering almost all of Chile’s territory, from the Atacama Desert to the southern pampas, was the backdrop for joint-combined exercise Southern Star 2023. The training brought together the Chilean Army, Navy, and Air Force (FACH); U.S. Special Operations Command South (SOCSOUTH), a component of U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM); and the Spanish Joint Special Operations Command. “Chilean, Spanish, and US Special Forces Together for Southern Star 2023”, Dialogo-Americas, October 5, 2023.

Ukraine SOF in Africa? A video has emerged adding to claims that Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate is operating in Sudan against the Wagner Group – a Russian paramilitary force. The Wagner Group is working in Sudan with the Rapid Reaction Forces (RSF) to topple the government in Sudan. “Are Kyiv’s Special Operators Fighting Wagner in Africa?”, The War Zone, October 6, 2023.

SOF History

OSS Veteran Passes. Ellsworth Johnson was a member of the Operational Group (OG) of the Office of Strategic Services during World War II. He parachuted behind enemy lines prior to D-Day and conducted operations against German forces in France. Later in the war he into China to fight against Japanese forces in the Pacific theater. He was believed to be the last surviving member of an Operations Group. This past year he was inducted into the Special Forces Regiment and was presented with an Army Special Forces tab and a Green Beret by the 1st Special Forces Command. “Ellsworth Johnson, Last Survivor of a Secret Army Unit, Dies at 100”, The New York Times, October 6, 2023. (subscription)

“Che”. On October 9, 1967, Che Guevara was executed in Bolivia. 8th SFGA trained the counter-guerrilla force that tracked down Che’s small guerrilla group.

https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/cuba-intelligence/2020-10-09/che-guevara-cia-mountains-bolivia

Ranger Course. On October 10, 1951, the Ranger Course was conceived during the Korean War and was known as Ranger Training Command. “The Ranger Training Command was inactivated on this day in 1951 and became the Ranger Department, a branch of the Infantry School at Fort Benning, Ga. Its purpose was, and still is, to develop combat skills of selected officers and enlisted men by requiring them to perform effectively as small unit leaders in a realistic tactical environment, under mental and physical stress approaching that found in actual combat.”

46th Company. On October 12, 1966, the 46th Special Forces Company was activated in Thailand. Those in the SF community will remember this as being one of the better overseas assignments.

Kennedy Visit to FBNC. On 12 October 1961, Brigadier General William P. Yarborough, as commander of the Special Warfare Center, Fort Bragg, NC, met with President Kennedy to visit Fort Bragg. The meeting resulted in increased funding for Special Forces and the authorization of the Green Beret for wear as the official headgear of Special Forces. The President further showed his unfailing support for Special Forces in publishing an official White House Memorandum to the US Army dated April 11, 1962, which stated in part that “The Green Beret is again becoming a symbol of excellence, a badge of courage, a mark of distinction in the fight for freedom.”

Ukraine Conflict

“Storm Z” Units – Cannon Fodder. Russian soldiers who have broken rules (drinking, drugs, disobeying orders, etc.) are being sent to so-called punishment battalions and are then used in heavy fighting. The members of these “Storm Z” units have very poor chances of survival. (Business Insider, Oct 3, 2023).

Conservative Leaders Support Ukraine. The Vandenberg Coalition, a network of conservative national security professionals, released a public letter signed by over 100 leading conservatives urging Congressional Republicans to increase support to Ukraine. (Vandenberg Coalition, Oct 4, 2023).

F16s – Important . . . But. Michael Bohnert of the Rand Corporation says that F-16s will not win the war for Ukraine. “Only ground victories and unacceptable Russian losses will force Putin to negotiate. The most important support to Ukraine is still artillery, medical equipment, infantry weapons, ground vehicles, and drones. However, a long-term commitment to supporting a well-equipped, sizable F-16 force will improve the likelihood of Ukrainian success even if an F-16 never shoots a Russian fighter.” “F-16s are no magic bullets in Ukraine, but their armaments will matter”, Defense News, October 3, 2023.

Israel Under Attack

For an account of what transpired in Israel and the Gaza Strip over the weekend read “Israel Under Attack”, SOF News, October 7, 2023 (updated October 8, 2023).

https://sof.news/middle-east/israel-under-attack-hamas/

Fighting Continues. Overnight (Sunday into Monday) Hamas continued to infiltrate fighters (approximately 70) across the border. The rocket and missile attacks against Israel are continuing. The Israeli Defense Force (IDF) says that there are still six sites of fighting on the Gaza border as of Monday morning although it also states that the IDF has regained control of all the communities on the border with the Gaza Strip; 15 of the 24 border communities have been evacuated. The pace of the ground fighting has diminished – for now. The air attacks by Israel have stepped up – hitting over 1,000 military and communications targets. A ground offensive by Israel into the Gaza Strip is just days if not hours away. Thus far over 700 people have been killed in Israel, thousands wounded, and probably about 150 held hostage (now in Gaza). Israel has called up over 300,000 reservists.

U.S. Military Response. The United States is sending air and naval assets into the region. A number of strike aircraft and fighters are heading to the Middle East – probably a mix of A-10s, F-15s, F-16s, and F-35s. The US has moved the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group (CSG 12) (CENTCOM, Oct 8, 2023) to the eastern Mediterranean Sea. The 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) Special Operations Capable (SOC) has a good part of its force in the Persian Gulf on deployment aboard naval vessels and in Kuwait. (DVIDS, Oct 8, 2023) Part of the 26th MEU is in Norway and the other part is in the Middle East region.

Foreign Nationals. A lot of countries are reporting that some of their citizens have been killed, wounded, or taken hostage by Hamas over the weekend. Some of these people have been seen in videos posted by Hamas. The Nepal government confirms (Twitter) that the terrorists have killed 10 Nepali Hindu citizens. Among the hostages are German, UK, American, Nepali, and Russian citizens. The White House has announced that ‘several’ American citizens were killed in the Hamas attacks in Israel. There is speculation that some Americans may have been taken hostage and are now held captive in the Gaza Strip. Some nations are flying aircraft to pull out its citizens. Poland has taken some of its citizens out on at least four aircraft.

Report – Attack on Gaza? The fighting to take Gaza will be fierce urban combat. A ground assault into Gaza will likely take place in about 48 hours. Accomplishing the objectives of finding and killing Hamas fighters and recovering hostages will be difficult. Urban warfare in highly dense cities is tough. The “Urban Warfare Project Case Study Series” presented by the Urban Warfare Project at the Modern Warfare Institute at West Point has studies on Fallujah I, Fallujah II, Suez City, Stalingrad, Hue, Ortona, and Mosul. Followers of the conflict may find a Rand Corporation report done in 2017 of interest. Lessons from Israel’s Wars in Gaza, Rand, 2017, PDF, 12 pages. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB9975.html

National Security and Commentary

Border Crisis. The people keep pouring across the border and the Biden administration seems unable (or reluctant?) to do much about. Meanwhile, the sanctuary cities (NYC, Denver, etc.) are shouting “No Mas!” Apparently, some steps are being taken by the government. On October 5, 2023, the Department of Homeland Security issued a determination (Federal Register, PDF, 6 pages) that it is necessary to waive certain laws, regulations, and other legal requirements in order to resume expeditious construction of barriers in areas of “high illegal entry” along the international border with Mexico. Secretary of State Blinken met with Mexican President Obrador to discuss a number of issues – one being “the challenges presented by irregular migration and synthetic fentanyl.” (DoS Readout, Oct 5, 2023) The United States will resume direct deportation flights to Venezuela (Washington Examiner) in an attempt to curb the surge in migration. See also “Migrants pass quickly through once impenetrable Darien jungle as governments scramble for answers”, Associated Press News, October 6, 2023.

Haiti – One More Time. It seems every few decades the United Nations has to step in to restore order to Haitian society. On October 4th the United Nations Security Council approved the deployment of a UN force to quell the rampant violence and chaos in Haiti. The UN’s multinational force will be led by Kenya – the country will send about 1,000 police officers. Other countries – including Jamaica, the Bahamas, Antigua and Barbuda – will send personnel as well. The U.S. has pledged $100 million in logistical support. “Haiti Only Has One Feasible Way Forward”, Carnegie Endowment, Octobe 5, 2023.

A Second War in Europe? The world’s attention is on Taiwan and Ukraine. However, and area of tension that could escalate into open conflict is the Balkans. Armed conflict could break out between Serbia and Kosovo. This could reignite a conflict that took place in the 1990s. The Serbians have bolstered their military presence along its border with Kosovo. The NATO peacekeeping mission in Kosovo has deployed additional peacekeeping troops to the region. “A second war could easily erupt in Europe – while everyone’s distracted by Ukraine”, CNBC, October 5, 2023.

Gender Integration and Combat Power. Julian Spencer-Churchill notes that there is an eventual likelihood of gender-neutral conscription legislation in Canada that will require a serious look at how personnel will be allocated to the combat arms. The Canadian government is currently dealing with an epidemic of sexual misconduct in the military; this could get worse in the future. “The Canadian Liberal Party’s Ideological Gender Integration Will Reduce Frontline Combat Power”, RealClear Defense, October 5, 2023.

Great Power Competition

Resistance by Taiwan. A retired SF officer, Lumby Lumbaca, describes how civilian population of Taiwan can play a critical during an occupation by the People’s Republic of China. “Every Taiwan Citizen a Resistance Member: Preparing for a Chinese Occupation”, Modern War Institute at West Point, September 14, 2023.

Report – China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities, Congressional Research Service, CRS RL33153, October 5, 2023, PDF, 70 pages. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RL/RL33153

Russian Presence in Arctic – Swedish Response. Sweden has taken decisive action to counter Russia’s growing presence in the Arctic region by increasing land forces in the northern part of the Nordic country and expanding military cooperation with Finland and Norway. Sweden recently announced it is increasing military spending by almost 30% next year. “Sweden ‘beefing up’ military presence in Arctic to counter Russian threat”, Breaking Defense, October 4, 2023.

SOF News welcomes the submission of articles for publication. If it is related to special operations, current conflicts, national security, or defense then we are interested.

Asia

Israeli Assisted Azerbaijan in Ethnic Cleansing. Prior to the Azerbaijan attack on the Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, Israeli military cargo planes airlifted weapons to Azerbaijan. The flights carried heavy artillery, rocket launchers, and drones. Azerbaijan supplies about 40% of Israel’s oil needs. Azerbaijan is a big customer of Israeli weapons. Over 80% of the population of Nagorno-Karabakh are now refugees in Armenia. The alignment of interests between Israel and Azerbaijan has a lot to do with their common opposition to Iran. “Israeli arms quietly helped Azerbaijan retake Nagorno-Karabakh, to the dismay of region’s Armenians”, Associated Press News, October 5, 2023.

Earthquake in Afghanistan. A severe earthquake rocked Herat province. Estimates are that over 2,600 people died and thousands more were injured.

Pakistan to Deport Illegal Afghan Immigrants. Pakistan on Tuesday ordered all illegal immigrants, including 1.73 million Afghan nationals, to leave the country or face expulsion after revealing that 14 of 24 suicide bombings in the country this year were carried out by Afghan nationals. Most of the Afghans have fled the Taliban as the faced retribution for being part of the previous Afghan government, were former members of the Afghan security forces, or supported the U.S. military mission in Afghanistan. Many have fled due to the dire economic situation in Afghanistan since the Taliban have taken over. “Pakistan orders illegal immigrants, including 1.73 mln Afghans, to leave”, Reuters, October 3, 2023.

Blacksmith Publishing is a media partner of SOF News. They are a book publishing firm, sell ‘Pinelander Swag’, have a weekly podcast called The Pinelander.

Africa

Gen Miller on Somalia. It has been 30 years since the two-day fight in Mogadishu where 18 Americans lost their lives. General (Ret.) Scott Miller has put his thoughts about that event into an article. “In the Battle of Mogadishu, We Had Extreme Trust in One Another Amid Chaos”, Solider of Fortune Magazine, October 3, 2023.

Special Forces – Failure and Learning. The lesson 30 years on from the Battle of Mogadishu is that, with the right response, defeat can be a better tutor than victory. Although the American units involved fought courageously, and inflicted heavy losses on their adversaries, the Battle of Mogadishu exposed significant weaknesses in U.S. Special Operations Forces’ capability. “Our Special Forces’ Capacity to Evolve Despite Failure”, by Andrew Exum, The Atlantic, October 3, 2023. (subscription)

Wagner Group in Africa. Despite the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group, the paramilitary organization will continue its operations in Africa. Read more in “After Prigozhin: The Future of the Wagner Group Model in Africa”, CTC Sentinel, Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, September 2023.

Niger. The drawdown of French troops in Africa’s Sahel region continues. French troops will be out of Niger by the end of the year. “France starts pulling soldiers out of Niger”, Politic.eu, October 5, 2023.

Mali Update. The security situation in Mali is getting worse. The governments security forces are fighting on several fronts, the Tuareg rebels are back on the offensive in the north, and Timbuktu is being targeted by Islamists from the east. The city’s road access has been cut as well as the river and air routes. The current Mali regime demanded the departure of a 13,000-strong force led by the United Nations. Over 1,000 Russian paramilitary mercenaries were brought into the country to bolster security, but they have not filled the security gap. “Mali in meltdown as militants advance and U.N. withdraws”, Reuters, October 3, 2023.

SOF News Book Shop

View our selection of books about special operations forces at the SOF News Book Shop.

Books, Movies, and Videos

Book – AUSA Army Green Book 2023-2024. The Association of the United States Army has published its ‘Green Book’ (October 2023). It is available online in PDF format, 204 pages. A lot of interesting articles, ‘year in review’ feature, listing of key Army personnel, weapons and equipment (cross-functional perspective) descriptions, info on posts and installations, and plenty of snazzy advertisements. https://www.ausa.org/sites/default/files/AUSA_Army-GreenBook_23-24.pdf

Best War Movies. Amazon’s Prime Video has a wide variety of movies and shows – to include some great war movies. “The Best Military Movies and Shows Streaming Right Now on Amazon Prime Video”, Military.com, October 2, 2023.

Video – D-Day: Planning the Impossible. Army University Press, October 5, 2023, YouTube, 50 minutes. “Allied planners spent years analyzing changing tides, perilous terrain, and German fortifications along the Atlantic Wall to figure out the best time and place to come ashore. Even basic logistics were a nightmare. Over a million soldiers had to be shipped to the United Kingdom, and then equipped and fed. Paying heed to Allied leadership from COSSAC to SHAEF, our film examines how the plan for one of the largest invasions in history was changing clear up to D-Day. Created in collaboration with the Combined Arms Support Command (CASCOM), the film outlines important Army doctrine such as the Military Decision Making Process (MDMP), the Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield (IPB), and the Sustainment Preparation of the Operational Environment.” (Editorial comment: The narrators take every opportunity to insert modern Army terminology into this historical documentary.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GM9LSEtEPso

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sof.news · by SOF News · October 8, 2023

26. What is Neoliberalism? David Harvey’s Philosophy

And now for something completely different. This is worth pondering.

What is Neoliberalism? David Harvey’s Philosophy

This article examines Harvey’s notion of neoliberalism, its genesis, history, theoretical foundation, and practical consequences.

Oct 5, 2023 • By Klejton Cikaj, MSc in Social Philosophy, BA Philosophy

thecollector.com · by Klejton Cikaj · October 5, 2023

The late 70s and 80s marked a massive turning point in economic and cultural orthodoxy, the consequences of which are being laid before our eyes today. The soaring inequality we experience, both on a local and global dimension, can be traced back to the genesis of neoliberalism. David Harvey understands liberalism as an attempt to restore power to the capitalists, who were threatened by both the welfare state and labor. It advocated cutting back on social spending, offered tax breaks to the ultra-wealthy, and used the military to make the whole globe a playground for investors.

What is Neoliberalism (According to David Harvey)?

Margaret Thatcher reviewing an honor guard of the Bermuda Regiment, White House Photo Office, 12 April 1990 via Margaretthatcher.org.

Neoliberalism has become one of those words that is thrown around frequently, to the degree that its meaning seems to have become somewhat muddled. However, according to David Harvey, neoliberalism marks a very specific form of capitalism: the establishment of its total hegemonic domination, in all aspects of life.

The genesis of neoliberalism can be traced back to the political and economic movements of 1978-1980. Deng Xiaoping was already convinced that communism had to give way to market liberalization in China; the USSR was also giving ground, slowly turning towards the West; Margaret Thatcher was elected Prime minister in the UK, and Ronald Reagan was president in the USA.

Advanced capitalist countries had once enjoyed a temporary, stable, crystallized set of economic relations that diffused the tension between labor and capital. Most workers in advanced countries enjoyed a relatively high quality of life, in contrast to other times and places in history. Neoliberalism was set to undo all of that in what would become an assault on labor, trade unions, social spending on various services, along with industry regulation.

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These new, neoliberal policies were designed to unleash the powers of the market, which neoliberals believed lay still latent due to government regulations keeping them in check. Capital had to become global, faster, larger, and more dynamic in order to free countries from their apparent stagnancy. The state was to be withdrawn from its points of intervention in the economy. Its duty would be to create the markets, maintain strong property rights, and expand them elsewhere—by force if needed. Everything else would be an overreach of government.

How and Why Did the Turn to Neoliberalism Happen?

American labor activist and five-time candidate for President of the United States Eugene V. Debs, circa 1912, via Library of Congress.

The compromise between labor, state, and capital had the function of providing some tranquillity after World War II and the Great Depression. Indeed, the labor movements at the time were so big and influential that a revolution wasn’t out of the imagination of the workers at the time. In the US, for example, socialist activist Eugene Debs managed to gather almost one million votes running whilst being imprisoned in 1920.

Photo of David Harvey, via davidharvey.org.

With the great economic slump and the triumph of the Soviets, socialism had gotten even more popular by the end of World War II. China and the Soviet Union also strongly limited the reach of the US across the globe before their eventual liberalization. The belief at the time was that the state had to interfere to make sure both the workers and the capitalists were getting a fair deal. The underlying idea in the Western world was that both extremes, Capitalist and Communist, were very damaging when adopted raw. The state had to lessen the friction between class relations and keep them at arm’s length. This is what Harvey calls “Embedded liberalism.” According to Harvey, by the end of the 1960s, this order of liberalism and Keynesianism began to break down.

The Effects of Neoliberalism

A homeless man near Princes St., Edinburgh, by Benjamin Brock, 24 May 2014, via Wikimedia Commons.

After the economic boom of the 50s and 60s, the contradictions inherent in capitalism began to surface again. Inflation was soaring, and unemployment was rising yearly. This led to a point of stagnation that persisted throughout the 70s. Tax revenues could no longer match up with social expenditures. Fixed exchange rates were also abandoned in 1971, and gold could longer function as the foundation of international exchange. The friction between social classes, now that economic growth had somewhat stagnated, was now bubbling to the surface. Neoliberalism was a project that had the purpose of restoring the power of the ruling class in its raw nature, with no state interference to soften the blow.

The implementation of neoliberal policies has always had a tight correlation to increases in the national income share of the wealthiest one percent of the population. This increase was almost never followed by an increase in real wages to the same degree, which is why neoliberalism has always widened the inequality gap whenever it is applied. The national income share of the top one percent in the US went from less than 8% in the 70s to almost double that, at 15%, by the end of the millennium. In the UK, it went from 6.5% in 1982 to 13% by the year 2000.

How Neoliberalism Manufactures Consent

Logo for The National Health Service (NHS), by NHS England.

Convincing the masses that the ultra-wealthy need even more money, and that they need to be taxed even less, presents some very obvious difficulties. Proponents of neoliberalism would need to buy the consent of the masses with a different currency. The first strategy is that of stoking anti-government sentiment.

Obviously, a lot of people take issue with politicians and governments. They’re thought to be corrupt, bloated, inefficient, and even authoritarian. The existence of the government beyond its market-designed parameters is a threat to the freedom of the individual. These kinds of anti-government sentiments are then later used to make running on platforms of cutting social spending and tax breaks for the rich more acceptable.

The concept of freedom promoted and protected by anti-government ideas is a negative type of freedom. The individual freedom in the neoliberal confine is freedom in the market, your freedom to submit your labor for exploitation, and the capitalist’s freedom to make a profit from it.

Neoliberalism in Practice: The Chilean Experiment

Photograph of Chilean general and dictator, Augusto Pinochet, circa 1974, Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores de Chile, via Wikimedia Commons.

Within neoliberalism, the ethics of capitalist transactions mark the horizon of the imagination of the subjects living under its rule. Alternative ways of functioning become unimaginable. The figures of neoliberalism hijacked the notion of individual freedom and rendered it a one-dimensional freedom: the freedom of buying and selling. This freedom was threatened by all forms of state intervention in the market and had to be preserved. The neoliberal state had the sole function of creating the conditions necessary for capital accumulation but not to interfere with its process.

According to David Harvey, the first real neoliberal experiment took place in Chile. In 1973, Chile’s democratically elected socialist leader, Salvador Allende, was overthrown in a military coup which was backed by US intervention. The coup resulted in the dictator Augusto Pinochet being installed as Chile’s leader. Pinochet brutally suppressed every movement on the left, from strikes, to trade unions, to any similar popular organization. Pinochet killed thousands in his crusade against leftist movements that threatened US and capitalist interests.

A group of economists from the Chicago school of economics would become close advisors of the dictator in regard to his policies; in particular, economist Milton Friedman played a central role. With the help of their advice, the Chilean economy was opened wide, ready for exploitation and accumulation once again.

This experiment had devastating effects on the Chilean quality of life, which dropped significantly, and the crisis culminated with the debt crisis in 1982. The experiment, however, yielded data and results that could now be applied from the periphery of the world economy to its center: the UK and USA.

The Neoliberal State

Portrait of Milton Friedman, by The Friedman Foundation for Educational Choice, via Wikimedia Commons.

David Harvey notes that the neoliberal state has often evolved beyond its initial theoretical functions proposed by Hayek or Friedman. The state uses its monopoly on violence to guard and preserve personal freedom. Private property and free trade are seen as the fundamental building blocks of this freedom. The state should keep industry nationalization at the lowest possible minimum, ideally only having control over the legal bodies, banking, law enforcement, and the military.

In this sense, the state only draws the parameters necessary for fee exchange to take place. Anything more is off the table. If there were any other sectors run by the state, they must be given up to privatization. This climate serves as the final inversion where the subject-object relation can take place. As David Harvey notes:

“While personal and individual freedom in the marketplace is guaranteed, each individual is held responsible and accountable for his or her own actions and well-being.”

This framework discourages any systematic analysis and replaces it with the individual judgment of specific actors. Therefore, when a crisis occurs, it is the fault of the bankers who loaned money without careful consideration of the debtor’s ability to pay them back, or maybe even the fault of the debtors for taking loans they can’t pay, but it is never the fault of the system. However, it is the rules of the system that lead actors towards following in their best interest in the manner that is permitted by the system itself. Critique of the system becomes far more difficult to articulate, as the system of relations in neoliberalism achieves an internalization in the subject: the system is not even perceived as being there, nor can its alternatives be conceived.

The Consequences of Neoliberalism According to David Harvey

Flea market in Rostov-on-Don, Russia, by Brian Kelley, 1992 via Wikimedia Commons.

Neoliberals often justify the rising inequality caused by their policies as being a consequence of growing economies. However, David Harvey notes that neoliberalism also failed to stimulate growth, which was the main rationalization behind its adoption. Growth rates before neoliberal policies were 3.5 % in the 60s and 2.4 in the 70s. After its adoption, growth rates fell to 1.4 in the 80s and 1.1 in the 90s. These policies lead to a thinning of the middle class and, eventually, into a clearer split between those living paycheck to paycheck and those living on surplus value, interest, or rent.

In Russia, the consequences of neoliberal shock therapy were catastrophic, with millions slipping into poverty after the fall of the USSR, and per-capita income diminishing by 3.5% annually. Life expectancy dropped rapidly, up to 5 years in men. In the UK, the percentage of the population living below 60% of the median income went from 13.4 before Thatcher to 22.2% under Thatcher. Income inequality soared everywhere neoliberal policies were implemented, from Chile to the US and the UK. Safety nets and labor movements were dismantled, leaving working people at the mercy of their employers.

thecollector.com · by Klejton Cikaj · October 5, 2023

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com