Severe Weather Outbreak (4/16)

Severe weather season is upon us (although it feels like it never leaves) and the next round is on our doorstep. Here’s the latest on what to expect.

As of the latest update, the Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of our region under a Moderate Risk for severe weather—a Level 4 out of 5. This morning’s revision expanded that risk area slightly eastward, now including the Lexington area.

If it feels like 2025 has already been unusually active, you're absolutely right. This marks the fourth time this year that a portion of Kentucky has been under a Level 4 severe weather risk—an occurrence that’s typically quite rare. All modes of severe weather are possible, including damaging winds, large hail, tornadoes, and heavy rainfall. Stay weather-aware, have multiple ways to receive warnings, and be prepared to act quickly if severe weather strikes.

Breaking Down the Threat

Below are the probabilities for each severe weather threat. Damaging winds carry the highest risk with today’s storms, especially across the western half of Kentucky. That said, all modes of severe weather remain on the table. Tornado probabilities have increased compared to yesterday’s outlook. Similar to recent severe weather events earlier this year, hatched areas (indicated by black dashes) are present. These highlight a 10% or greater chance of significant severe weather, including:

• Damaging winds exceeding 74 mph (hurricane force)
• Hail larger than 2 inches in diameter
• Strong to violent tornadoes

Storms are arriving in waves. The first round is currently moving through the area (as of 9:30 AM). A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect, with storms capable of producing all severe weather hazards—most notably, large hail. This wave will continue pushing east, followed by a lull in activity. That break will allow the atmosphere to “recharge,” increasing instability and setting the stage for another round of severe storms later this afternoon and into the evening/overnight hours.

This second round is expected to be the more significant of the two. Discrete storms are likely to develop initially, posing a greater risk of tornadoes and large hail. As the evening progresses, these storms are expected to merge into a line, shifting the primary threat to damaging straight-line winds.

Please stay weather aware throughout the day and ovenight. Below are some tips on staying alert and prepared. For the most accurate and up-to-date information, please refer to the briefings from each National Weather Service office across the state. These will be continuously updated through the day to ensure you have access to the latest guidance.

Western KY - NWS Paducah, KY

Central KY - NWS Louisville, KY

Eastern KY - NWS Jackson, KY

Stay Alert and Prepared:

• Multiple Warning Methods: Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings tonight and tomorrow.

• NOAA Weather Radio: If you haven't already, consider purchasing a NOAA Weather Radio today. These devices are designed to wake you up in the middle of the night and have been proven to save lives.

• Kentucky Weather Alert App: This ad-free app from the UK Ag Weather Center is an excellent resource for staying safe and informed. It provides daily and hourly forecasts, high-resolution radar, National Weather Service alerts sent directly to your phone, and a link to this update. Without any distracting ads, this app can act as another reliable warning source during tonight’s severe weather. Be sure to check it out by scanning or clicking the QR codes below to download the app on both iOS and Google Play platforms.

Shelter Locations:

• Residential Safety: Refer to the image below for the best locations to shelter at your home. You're trying to put the most walls between you and the outdoor environment.

• Avoid Mobile Homes: DO NOT stay in a mobile home. Find a sturdier location. Make plans now to locate an alternative shelter that is close by and accessible within 5 minutes in case a warning is issued by the National Weather Service.

Understanding Watches and Warnings:

• Watch: Indicates that conditions are favorable for severe weather. This means the ingredients for severe weather are present.



• Warning: Issued when severe weather is imminent or occurring. Take immediate action and find shelter right away