Quotes of the Day:

Excerpts From President Reagan’s second NSS:

NATIONAL SECURITY DECISION DIRECTIVE NUMBER 238

BASIC NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY

September 2, 1986

(Copy 1 of 11, Declassified from TS on 10/27/2005)

https://irp.fas.org/offdocs/nsdd/nsdd-238.pdf

Grand Strategy

The grand strategy of the United States is to avoid nuclear war while preventing a single hostile power or coalition of powers from dominating the Eurasian land-mass or other strategic regions from which threats to U.S. interests might arise. The success of this strategy is dependent on the maintenance of a strong nuclear deterrent, dynamic alliances, and a Western-oriented world economy. It is also dependent on the U.S. ability to wage successfully a competition for influence among less developed countries, the ability to influence events beyond our direct control, and ultimately, the ability to project military power abroad in defense of U.S. interests. The strength of this grand strategy is founded upon the convergence of interests between the U.S. and the community of nations as a whole. The national independence and individual freedoms we seek to uphold are in harmony with the general desires and ideals common to all mankind. The U.S. must therefore remain the natural enemy of any country threatening the independence of others, and the proponent of free trade, commerce, and economic stability.

This grand strategy requires the development and integration of a set of strategies to achieve our national objectives, including political, diplomatic, military, informational, economic, intelligence, and arms control components. These strategies are necessarily shaped by our values and our vision of the future; the national and international policy objectives we have set for ourselves; by dynamic trends in the global economy and the military balance; and by the demands of our geographical position. Such strategies must also take into account the capabilities and intentions of those hostile countries or coalitions which threaten to undermine the achievement of U.S. policy objectives.

Threats to U.S. National Security

…

One of the most challenging issues confronting the United States and its allies is the dedicated effort of the Soviet Union and others to subvert democratic processes and interests by whatever means. Western interests on all continents are threatened by direct and indirect actions on the part of the Soviet Union and its allies to undermine and take over other governments. They undertake this through destabilization and subversion, support of insurgencies, coups, infiltration and domination of local security and military services, use of propaganda and agents of influence, and other methods.

…

The underlying competition between the United States and the Soviet Union is in the realm of ideas and values, and in our contrasting visions of the future and the conditions for peace. Our way of life, founded upon the dignity and worth of the individual, depends on a stable and pluralistic world order within which freedom and democratic institutions can thrive. Yet, the greatest threat to the Soviet system, in which the State controls the destiny of the individual, is the concept of freedom itself. The survival of the Soviet system depends to a significant extent upon the persistent and exaggerated representation of foreign threats, through which it seeks to justify both the subjugation of its own people and the expansion of Soviet military capabilities well beyond those required for self-defense.

(Change Soviet Union/USSR to China/PRC (add Russia, Iran, and north Korea) and cut and paste for the 21^st century.)

1. Biden to urge Xi to restrain NK's 'worst tendencies': W. House

2. Press Gaggle by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan En Route Phnom Penh, Cambodia

3. Arrest warrant issued for activist on suspicion of cash remittance to N. Korea

4. Yoon, Japan's Kishida to hold summit in Cambodia

5. Yoon voices hope for swift reactivation of Korea-China-Japan cooperation

6. From opium to cryptocurrency, North Korea maneuvers to earn hard cash for nuclear program

7. Going nuclear wouldn't be without costs​ (ROK)​

8. S. Korean military presents bill to expand nuke, WMD threat response body

9. ＜Inside N. Korea＞N. Korea takes issue with high school students taking videos of kissing, dancing, fighting, and harassing the homeless

10. On Island Near North Korea, Locals Lament Return of Tensions

​11. ​‘Accident Prevention Month’ means police extort more than usual in North Korea

12. North Korea’s Inflection Point – Analysis

1. Biden to urge Xi to restrain NK's 'worst tendencies': W. House

He is right to make this demand. But I am doubtful that Xi will be of any help. And even if Xi agreed to help I doubt that Kim would be swayed at all unless Xi is willing to pressure him with debilitating sanctions. Faced with Xi's pressure Kim will follow the advice of Fleetwood Mac to "go your own way" which is the fundamental way of the Kim family regime.

Biden to urge Xi to restrain NK's 'worst tendencies': W. House

The Korea Times · November 12, 2022

President Joe Biden speaks during a meeting with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, at the COP27 U.N. Climate Summit, Friday, Nov. 11, at Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. AP-Yonhap President Joe Biden will urge Chinese leader Xi Jinping to restrain North Korea's "worst tendencies" and tell him that Pyongyang's arms build-up will prompt an "enhanced" U.S. military presence in Asia, a senior official said Saturday.

In a Monday meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit, Biden will tell Xi that China has "an interest in playing a constructive role in restraining North Korea's worst tendencies," National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told reporters.

Biden will also tell Xi that if North Korea's missile and nuclear build-up "keeps going down this road, it will simply mean further enhanced American military and security presence in the region."

Sullivan, speaking aboard Air Force One en route to Cambodia for a regional ASEAN summit this weekend, said Biden would not make demands on China but rather give Xi "his perspective."

This is that "North Korea represents a threat not just to the United States, not just to (South Korea) and Japan but to peace and stability across the entire region."

Whether China wants to increase pressure on North Korea is "of course up to them," Sullivan said.

However, with North Korea expected to soon test a nuclear weapon and rapidly ramping up its missile capacities, "the operational situation is more acute in the current moment," Sullivan said. (AFP)

The Korea Times · November 12, 2022

2. Press Gaggle by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan En Route Phnom Penh, Cambodia

Korea related excerpts:

While he’s there, he’ll also have the opportunity to hold discussions with both his Japanese and Korean counterparts and also hold a trilateral meeting with them where they’ll be able to discuss broader security issues in the Indo-Pacific and also, specifically, the threats posed by North Korea’s missile and nuclear programs.

...

Q Jake, I have a question. At the briefing on Thursday, you spoke about North Korea — your current sense around, you know, them carrying out long-range missile tests or nuclear tests during ASEAN, G20. When the President meets with President Xi, is he asking him to, you know, talk about North Korea, step in and sort of, you know, help out with the situation?

MR. SULLIVAN: The President will certainly raise the issue of North Korea with the Chinese President, but not from the point of view of being a demandeur of any kind.

He’s going to tell President Xi his perspective, which is that North Korea represents a threat not just to the United States, not just to the ROK and Japan, but to peace and stability across the entire region. And if North Korea keeps going down this road, it will simply mean further enhanced American military and security presence in the region.

And so the PRC has an interest in playing a constructive role in restraining North Korea’s worst tendencies. Whether they choose to do so or not is, of course, up to them.

Q You’ve been on calls with the President and President — President Biden and President Xi in the past. Has President Biden ever raised North Korea in this context with President Xi in the past?

MR. SULLIVAN: Of course. They’ve had multiple discussions about the DPRK since President Biden has been President. And I would go on to say nearly countless discussions on the DPRK going back to their engagements when President Biden was Vice President.

So they’ve had the chance to speak at a strategic level on this topic repeatedly. Of course, the operational situation is more acute in the current moment because of the pace of these missile tests and because of the looming threat of a potential nuclear test — seventh nuclear test. But the President sees this as quite familiar ground that he will be treading with President Xi when they meet in Bali.

Press Gaggle by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan En Route Phnom Penh, Cambodia | The White House

whitehouse.gov · by The White House · November 12, 2022

Aboard Air Force One

En Route Phnom Penh, Cambodia

7:18 A.M. ICT

MS. JEAN-PIERRE: Hey, everybody.

Q Good morning.

MS. JEAN-PIERRE: Good morning. Good morning.

Okay. So, as you all know, we’re on our way to Cambodia for the U.S.-ASEAN. I have Jake Sullivan here, National Security Advisor. He’s going to lay out what we’re going to do and take any questions.

MR. SULLIVAN: Thanks, everyone. So, from the very beginning of the administration, the President has said that he was intent on elevating our engagement in the Indo-Pacific. And he has spent the last nearly two years delivering on that, from elevating the Quad to leaders’ level, to launching the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, to launching the AUKUS security partnership, to deepening our ties to ASEAN, to, of course, deepening our engagement at every level with our traditional treaty allies.

And he’s coming into this set of summits with that record of accomplishment and purpose behind him. And he wants to be able to use the next 36 hours to build on that foundation to take American engagement forward and also to deliver on a series of concrete, practical initiatives.

He’ll start with a brief meeting with the 2022 ASEAN chair, the Cambodian Prime Minister, Hun Sen. Then he will have the U.S.-ASEAN Summit meeting.

As you know, he held an unprecedented ASEAN-U.S. Special Summit in Washington. And at that meeting, the leaders agreed that they would elevate the U.S.-ASEAN partnership to a comprehensive strategic partnership. That will happen at this summit. And they will also announce a series of new initiatives on maritime cooperation, digital connectivity, economic investment, and a range of other issues. And we’ll have factsheets and the like for you to take a look at those items.

One area that he will particularly focus is on maritime domain awareness. Along with the Quad leaders, he announced the Indo-Pacific Initiative for Maritime Domain Awareness. And with ASEAN, what he’s going to do is launch an element of that initiative that focuses on using radio frequencies from commercial satellites to be able to track dark shipping, illegal and unregulated fishing, and also to improve the capacity of the countries of the region to respond to disasters and humanitarian crises.

The President also has been very focused on making sure that we maintain a forward-deployed posture in our defense approach to the region. And whether it’s the Visiting Forces Agreement with the Philippines or other steps to have the U.S. on the front foot, in terms of defense and security cooperation, that will be on display as well.

And he will discuss with the leaders of ASEAN and of the region the need for freedom of navigation, for lawful unimpeded commerce, and for ensuring that the United States is playing a constructive role in maintaining peace and stability in the region.

While he’s there, he’ll also have the opportunity to hold discussions with both his Japanese and Korean counterparts and also hold a trilateral meeting with them where they’ll be able to discuss broader security issues in the Indo-Pacific and also, specifically, the threats posed by North Korea’s missile and nuclear programs.

So that’s what’s on the docket for the ASEAN meetings and the East Asia Summit. There, I’m sure, will be other elements on the sidelines.

Ah, yes, one point I actually neglected to mention and would like to before finishing the topper, on Burma — Myanmar: The President will use this opportunity to discuss how we can coordinate more closely to continue to impose costs and raise pressure on the junta in Naypyidaw as they continue to take steps that repress and oppress their citizenry and move that country further away rather than closer to the democratic path it was on before the coup. So that will be an important topic of conversation in these sessions as well.

Let me stop there and take your questions.

Q Jake, if we could just take you back to Sharm and the President’s bilat with President El-Sisi. Can you talk about the human rights discussion? Was the President surprised to hear President Sisi bring up human rights first? And what did you read into that? And then, does — did the President speak about raising the case of Alaa Abd El-Fattah directly? And does the U.S. have an update on his current health status?

MR. SULLIVAN: The President and President Sisi had an extended discussion on the issue of human rights. The President directed his team to work with the Egyptians on a number of specific cases, one of them being that case.

We had intensive consultations on that case while we were on the ground in Sharm, and I’m not going to go further on the record on that because we are doing everything we can to secure his release, as well as the release of a number of other political prisoners.

I do not have an update on his condition for you at the time. You know, the Egyptians have one story on this; obviously, his family has a totally different story. And this is a circumstance where it’s not “trust but verify”; it’s — it’s “verify.” And we’ve not been able to do that.

Q Jake, I have a question. At the briefing on Thursday, you spoke about North Korea — your current sense around, you know, them carrying out long-range missile tests or nuclear tests during ASEAN, G20. When the President meets with President Xi, is he asking him to, you know, talk about North Korea, step in and sort of, you know, help out with the situation?

MR. SULLIVAN: The President will certainly raise the issue of North Korea with the Chinese President, but not from the point of view of being a demandeur of any kind.

He’s going to tell President Xi his perspective, which is that North Korea represents a threat not just to the United States, not just to the ROK and Japan, but to peace and stability across the entire region. And if North Korea keeps going down this road, it will simply mean further enhanced American military and security presence in the region.

And so the PRC has an interest in playing a constructive role in restraining North Korea’s worst tendencies. Whether they choose to do so or not is, of course, up to them.

Q You’ve been on calls with the President and President — President Biden and President Xi in the past. Has President Biden ever raised North Korea in this context with President Xi in the past?

MR. SULLIVAN: Of course. They’ve had multiple discussions about the DPRK since President Biden has been President. And I would go on to say nearly countless discussions on the DPRK going back to their engagements when President Biden was Vice President.

So they’ve had the chance to speak at a strategic level on this topic repeatedly. Of course, the operational situation is more acute in the current moment because of the pace of these missile tests and because of the looming threat of a potential nuclear test — seventh nuclear test. But the President sees this as quite familiar ground that he will be treading with President Xi when they meet in Bali.

Q President Biden is spending quite a bit of time on this trip meeting with authoritarian leaders who don’t share the United States’ democratic values. Why was it so important to him to focus on engaging with those leaders on this trip?

MR. SULLIVAN: Well, I mean, let’s start with the fact that the President felt it was very important to attend some highly consequential summits this year. The first of those summits was COP27. COP27 was hosted by Egypt. The President was proud and pleased to have the opportunity to engage with the host of that summit, the President of Egypt.

The second summit is hosted by Cambodia. The host of that summit is the Prime Minister of Cambodia, so he’s engaging with him.

The third summit is hosted by Indonesia, the G20. That’s a democratically elected leader, Joko Widodo.

So he’s meeting with the host of each of the summits that he’s attendingAnd then he will also, as I said at the podium the other day, be meeting with his European counterparts, including the UK and Italian prime ministers. He’s meeting, of course, as I just mentioned, in Phnom Penh with his ROK and Japanese counterparts.

So he will have plenty of opportunity to engage deeply with core democratic allies. But he’s going to engage across the board in service of America’s interests and to advance America’s strategic position and our values. And that’s what guides his decision on every leader he chooses to engage with.

Q Jake, on El-Fattah, you said that that prisoner came up during the discussion, but was it President Biden who brought it up or did Sisi bring it up? And was Biden calling specifically on his release? You wouldn’t get into, I think, his condition —

MR. SULLIVAN: Yeah.

Q — but is there anything that you can get into in terms of what the U.S. is requesting specifically of Sisi on that case?

MR. SULLIVAN: The U.S. is requesting his release. We’ve made no bones about that. President Sisi first raised human rights not just in his opening comments before the press, but in his opening presentation in the meeting. President Biden responded. President Biden explained why it is that these issues are very important to the United States. And as I said, he then directed his team to work through a set of individual cases. We’re the ones who raised the cases, not the Egyptians. And we worked through them.

There is a question about the extent to which trying to resolve these cases diplomatically is best done through public pressure or through private engagement. That’s a constant debate, a constant calibration. So I can say emphatically that we believe that should be released.

But in terms of talking through the specifics of our discussions with the Egyptians, I’d like to leave those behind closed doors for the moment.

Q Jake, on the trilateral, can you just talk a little bit more about what you hope or expect to get out of it? Any deliverables that you can share? What does success look like?

MR. SULLIVAN: When you’re talking about close allies like this, deliverables is usually not quite the right construct because we just do so much together every single day.

But what we would really like to see is enhanced trilateral security cooperation where the three countries are all coming together — where that triangle, in a way, is getting smaller and smaller — between Japan, ROK, United States. That’s acutely true with respect to the DPRK because of the common threat and challenge we all face, but it’s also true, more broadly, about our capacity to work together to enhance overall peace and stability in the region.

I do expect that there will be a statement that comes out of that meeting. That’s not a foregone conclusion, but it’s my expectation. And that — that statement will actually set out an elevated level of engagement — trilateral engagement between our three countries.

You guys know well, of course, that there are a number of issues that the ROK and Japan constantly grapple with bilaterally. It’s really our goal, from the U.S.’s perspective,

to ensure that at a trilateral level we are maximizing our capacity to work together on critical security.

Q Following up on that meeting —

Q On China — if I can just have one quick one on China. Just — just a follow-up (inaudible.)

Q How much of that discussion will be centered around President Biden’s meeting with Xi, following — in the following days, though?

MR. SULLIVAN: It’s a great question. One thing that President Biden certainly wants to do with our closest allies is preview what he intends to do and also ask the leaders of the ROK and Japan, “What would you like me to raise? What do you want me to go in with?” That’s the kind of style that he takes to his engagement with the PRC generally and with Xi specifically.

So it will be a topic, but it will not be the main event of the trilateral.

Q On your discussion with Xi, President Biden said that what he really wants to find out is what are his red lines. I guess my question is: Don’t you kind of already know what China’s red lines are, particularly as it relates to Taiwan?

MR. SULLIVAN: We frequently say, almost to the point where it’s catechism, that there’s no substitute for leader-to-leader engagement. But it’s not just a talking point for us; we really mean it. And that’s particularly true when it comes to the PRC, because there is no one else in their system who can really communicate authoritatively other than Xi Jinping.

And so, having the two presidents actually be able to sit face-to-face, and not face-to-face with a video screen between them, for the first time in President Biden’s presidency, it just takes the conversation to a different level strategically and allows the leaders to explore in deeper detail what each of them see in terms of their intentions and priorities.

So, I do believe that there will be important clarifications — a sharpening of our understanding of the PRC perspective and a sharpening of their understanding of ours — in this meeting. And that’s really what this meeting is about. It’s not about deliverables or trying to produce some joint statement. It’s about the leaders coming to a better understanding and then tasking their teams to do intensive work to come back for further engagements between the leaders.

I think the President views this as not the end of the line, but rather the start of a series of engagements that will also include further leader-to-leader meetings down the road.

Q Jake, can I ask a follow-up to your comments about

Elon Musk in the briefing the other day? You referred things to CFIUS. Obviously, that was the context of the question that was asked to the President. So I’m wondering: Are you aware of an actual investigation at CFIUS into — or a look at CFIUS into the Twitter deal?

And the President’s comments seemed broader, beyond just CFIUS. And I’m wondering if you’re aware of or that the White House would want a review by NASA or the Pentagon, any contractor that deals with Elon Musk, based on his foreign relationships that the President referenced.

MR. SULLIVAN: I have not spoken with anyone in any agency about anything to do with regulatory action involving Twitter or Musk, so I really just don’t have anything for you on that.

Q And can I just ask, on the Xi meeting: It seemed to come together — well, there was a lot of talk about it, a lot of uncertainty, and then came together after his congress. Can you talk — give a little bit of a tick-tock of how the meeting came together on your guys’ end?

MR. SULLIVAN: Yeah. There was reporting along the way that somehow we were pushing for it and the PRC was resisting. And we said all along, when those stories would come out, that it’s simply not true. Because what was happening was actually several weeks of intensive preparation for the meeting between the two teams, both over video and over phone. And it was just a matter of trying to work out simple things like scheduling and then more consequential things like what the agenda would look like.

And the idea always was to get an agenda agreed, get a time agreed, get all of the elements agreed, and then announce the meeting just in the — in the few days leading up to it. So we had already, basically, in our heads — a month ago or longer — this was going to happen. It was just a matter of working that out.

Q So you don’t think the timing of the announcement had

anything to do with the election?

MR. SULLIVAN: No. Although if that makes us strategic geniuses or something, I’ll take it.

Q No, I meant them agreeing to the meeting had —

MR. SULLIVAN: No. No.

Q — nothing to do with the timing?

MR. SULLIVAN: No. No. No. No.

Q You mentioned in your topper freedom of navigation, fish- — efforts to crackdown on illegal fishery — fishing in the region. Obviously, those are all things that pertain to China. Can you speak broadly about how the first parts of this trip sort of set the President up for that bilat? How much is China’s activities in the region and threats to other nations in the region sort of a factor? And how does that boost the President’s leverage when he goes to meet with Xi Jinping on Monday, face-to-face?

MR. SULLIVAN: I mean, look, it is certainly the case that the countries of the region do not want conflict or confrontation between the major powers. But they also very much want U.S. presence — forward-deployed presence in the region. And the reason they want that is because they see the United States as an important anchor of peace and stability, and that includes ensuring that there is freedom of navigation. It includes ensuring that these countries are better equipped to be able to handle things like illegal fishing. And also, it ensures that no country can engage in the kind of sustained intimidation and coercion that would be fundamentally adverse to the nations of ASEAN and other countries.

So there is no doubt that the President comes in with a meaningful value proposition to the rest of the region that says, “The United States is a resident Pacific power. We played a critical role in the past. We play a critical role today. And we have every intention of doing so in the future.” And there’s a real demand signal for that. I think the PRC may not love that fact, but they certainly acknowledge it and understand it. And that’s some of the context for the meeting on Monday with Xi.

Q Jake, coming out of the climate conference, the President spoke at length about his goals there. Are there any specific climate commitments that he is seeking from

President Xi when he sits down with him, considering this as an area of cooperation that you have identified?

MR. SULLIVAN: He will, having just consulted with Secretary Kerry on the ground in Sharm, go into this meeting with a kind of specific set of thoughts around climate. But I’m going to leave that to the meeting and see where we are after in terms of reading it out, because I don’t want to get ahead of him being able to talk to Xi about it.

Q Jake, MBS — is there — is he — do you guys know if he’s going to be at — in Bali? Like, are there other engagements that you guys are expecting, including MBS, if he’s there? I don’t know if he’s — he’s had some condition, and I don’t know if he’s traveling.

MR. SULLIVAN: I think he is going, but I don’t know for certain. So I guess you’d have to check in with the Saudi government. We don’t have any plans to have a sit-down meeting with MBS.

I said at the podium that we were likely to end up with other bilateral engagements as we go forward. There’s a number of other leaders. There’s Scholz and Macron and Modi and Erdoğan and Albanese.

And, you know, so my guess is as particularly the two days of Bali unfold, the odds of additional meetings that we notice to you will rise.

Q Before you go, there was a lot of flight time on this

leg. How did the President spend it? Was able to get any sleep?

MR. SULLIVAN: I’ll defer you to Karine on that.

MS. JEAN-PIERRE: Oh, my gosh. (Laughs.)

Q Will he also —

MR. SULLIVAN: I don’t talk about the President’s comings and goings on the plane.

Q One last one. We’ve seen some more — the Russian pull-out in the Kherson region sort of play out on the ground over the last 24, 48 hours. Has there been any U.S.-Ukrainian contact, discussion, now after that pull-out — engagement regarding negotiations and, you know, sort of — everyone sort of taking their time over the winter to assess their situation for negotiation?

MR. SULLIVAN: So, I’ve obviously seen a number of press stories on this topic, and I thank you for the opportunity to lay down what I think are the four core elements of consensus in the U.S. government and, fundamentally, what President Biden believes about this question.

The first is: He said in the press conference it’s up to Ukraine to decide when and how they want to negotiate. Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine. We’re not going to pressure them; we’re not going to dictate to them.

The second is that we believe in a just peace based on the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity that are not things we made up but that are embedded in the U.N. Charter. The G7 leaders spoke to these principles of a just peace, including territorial integrity. President Zelenskyy has spoken to these.

The third point is that Russia is doubling down on its “annexation,” quote, unquote — annexation of Ukrainian territory. That’s not exactly a sign of seriousness about negotiating. As long as Russia holds the position that it simply gets to grab as much territory as it wants by force, it’s hard to see them as a good-faith counterparty in a negotiation.

And the fourth and final point is that the U.S. approach remains the same today as it was six months ago, which is we’re going to do everything we can, including our announcement, our military announcement — our military security assistance announcement yesterday — to put Ukraine in the best possible position on the battlefield so that when they make their determination to proceed, they’re in the best possible position at the negotiating table.

And one more big-ticket item. So there’s kind of this sense of when is Ukraine going to negotiate. Okay, ultimately, at a 30,000-foot level, Ukraine is the party of peace in this conflict, and Russia is the party of war. Russia invaded Ukraine. If Russia chose to stop fighting in Ukraine and left, it would be the end of the war. If Ukraine chose to stop fighting and give up, it would be the end of Ukraine.

So this whole notion, I think, in the Western press of “When is Ukraine going to negotiate?” misses the underlying fundamentals, which is that Russia continues, even as recently as the last 24 hours, to make these outlandish claims about annexed Russian territory — quote, unquote, “Russian territory” — including territory they just left.

So in that context, our position remains the same as it has been, and fundamentally is in close consultation and support of President Zelenskyy and Ukraine. And that is shared across the U.S. government.

Q Can I follow up on that, on Ukraine? Regarding Kherson city, at the briefing you gave, you expressed reservations — “Let’s wait and see what actually happens,” the evidence.

MR. SULLIVAN: Yeah.

Q Is that still your position now, or do you feel like this is real? And if so, can you talk about the significance of that?

MR. SULLIVAN: I think you’ve heard enough from me to know that — over the last months — to know that I express permanent reservations about everything. So I, personally, will not be fully confident that there’s been a complete pull-out of Kherson on the right bank of the Dnieper River until we land and I can call back secure and hear for certain.

But it does look as though the Russians have executed this withdrawal. And it does look as though the Ukrainians have just won an extraordinary victory where the one regional capital that Russia had seized in this war is now back under a Ukrainian flag. And that is quite a remarkable thing.

And it has broader strategic implications as well, because being able to push the Russians across the river means that the longer-term threat to places like Odessa and the Black Sea coastline are reduced from where they were before.

And so this is a big moment. And it’s certainly not the end of the line, but it’s a big moment. And it’s due to the incredible tenacity and skill of the Ukrainians, backed by the relentless and united support of the United States and our allies.

Cool. Thank you, guys.

Q Thank you, Jake.

MS. JEAN-PIERRE: Hi.

Q Hi. (Laughs.)

MS. JEAN-PIERRE: Okay, what do you guys got? I don’t have — I don’t have anything else to add. What do you guys have?

Q Can you confirm that the — that the President, through the Secretary of Homeland Security, has directed the chairman of Customs — of CBP to either resign or be fired in the coming week? And why is that?

MS. JEAN-PIERRE: So, I’ve seen — we’ve seen those reports. I just — I’m not going to comment on that from here at this time.

Q Are you denying that?

MS. JEAN-PIERRE: I’m just not going to comment on it at this time.

Q Is the President — does the President have confidence in his director of CBP?

MS. JEAN-PIERRE: The President has confidence in — in folks that he’s appointed — right? — the director of CBP. I just am not going to — I’m just not going to comment on the reporting.

Q Why not? Obviously, there’s — this is something —

MS. JEAN-PIERRE: Yeah, I hear you. I’m just not going to comment on it. I’ve seen the reporting. Just not going to comment from here. I would — if you want more, I would refer you to the Department of Homeland Security.

Q But you said the President does have confidence in this individual?

MS. JEAN-PIERRE: I just don’t have more. I’ve seen the reporting. I’m just not going to comment on it.

Q And on a different topic. Student loans, obviously, stalled up by a federal judge the other day. You put out a statement on this. Any new federal government action now — since, you know, we’ve been in the air for 24 hours or so now — on this?

MS. JEAN-PIERRE: As you mentioned, Zeke, I put out a statement on this when we were leaving for Egypt. So we strongly disagree with this baseless decision, and the Department of Justice is appealing it.

While we appeal, the Department of Education will hold on to the information of the 26 million Americans already being considered for debt relief.

We’re confident that this baseless decision will be overturned. And when it is, we will quickly process relief for the millions who have already applied.

We will never stop fighting for hardworking Americans, middle-class Americans most in need. As we have said many times before, no matter how much — how many roadblocks or oppoi- — opponents and special interests try to put in the way, we’re going to continue to fight.

Q Sorry, one last one from me. We’re just — one last one. We’re just getting close to the end of the year when that student debt relief pause is supposed to — supposed to come to an end. Now with this — with this court ruling, there’s a lot of uncertainty. Will the President commit to extending a pause on student debt repayment for people who have applied to this program and now that’s been held up?

MS. JEAN-PIERRE: So we are confident that this is going to get resolved. I don’t have anything new to announce. But we’re going — we’re confident that we will get this resolved soon.

Q Karine, quick —

Q Just a follow-up on that, Karine.

Q — quick question. Sorry, go ahead.

Q Just to follow up on that — December 31st is fast approaching. Should people who have student loans that are applying for this program, should they be prepared to start repaying those on December 31st? That’s significant planning they need to make.

MS. JEAN-PIERRE: I totally understand. I get your question. Again, we think we will prevail. And I just don’t have anything new to announce on that.

Q A quick one on the Twitter layoffs, Karine. We’re seeing mass layoffs in the company. Obviously, the President is the most pro-worker President in the history of the United States. Has he asked his Labor Department to look at this? Is the NLRB looking at this? What kind of investigations are — is the White House asking for?

MS. JEAN-PIERRE: So we’ve seen the reporting. I was asked about this on Thursday. So we’re aware of the layoffs from Meta and other — and other tech companies.

Look, more broadly speaking, I don’t have anything to share about any — any — any investigation or anything alike.

But, more broadly speaking, the most recent jobs and CPI report suggests that the economy continues to grow and add jobs, and Americans are beginning to see a much-needed break in inflation. And we think that’s important as well. But don’t have anything to share. But, again, we’ve seen the reporting.

Q Karine, the President was only on the ground for a few hours in Sharm. Why did the White House think it was worth it for him to go there?

MS. JEAN-PIERRE: Well, as you know, it was the COP27, which was hosted by Egypt. Jake has laid out why this — this particular summit was important. He talked about it on Tuesday, and he talked about it a little bit today.

Look, I — it was important for the leader of the United States, the President of the United States, to attend, to be there for COP27. And you heard him talk in very great detail about our commitment — our commitment to climate change and the work that we’re doing and how we’re being a leader in that role, in that — in that realm.

And so, again, it was an important stop for the President to make. You heard him; you saw how the reaction of him being there. And now we’re going to head to — to Cambodia to continue the rest of — the rest of this trip.

Q How are you feeling?

MS. JEAN-PIERRE: Oh, my gosh. I actually — I actually feel —

Q Your voice is still (inaudible) same.

MS. JEAN-PIERRE: I know. I actually feel much better than I sound. So — but thank you for asking. I think it’s part of, like, when you go, go, go of the campaign season, right?

Q Just because we’ve been in the air, there was a call that was read out to Tina Kotek that the President made. Has he made any other calls to politicians since we’ve been in flight?

MS. JEAN-PIERRE: I don’t have any other calls outside of that to read out. We’ve been — I think you would agree we’ve been pretty good at reading out calls that he’s made after — after Tuesday’s elections. We’ll continue to do that.

Tina Kotek — as you know, he went out there a couple times over the last couple of — couple of months. They’ve developed a very good relationship. And, as you know, he called to congratulate her. And she also made history, along with Maura Healey in Massachusetts. And so, very proud of that win.

Q And he did call J.B. Pritzker, and he also called Governor Whitmer and a few others. Does he have any plans to call Governor Newsom?

MS. JEAN-PIERRE: I don’t have any calls to preview at this time. But he saw — as you know, he saw Governor Newsom very recently when he was there. But I don’t have any calls at this time.

Q Karine, just to pick up on Fran’s question from before, can you give us a readout of how the President has been spending his time while we’ve been traveling the world?

MS. JEAN-PIERRE: Let’s see. What — it was a nine-hour flight? So he had an opportunity to — to talk to his team. As you know, Secretary Blinken is on — is on the plane, as well as Jake, our National Security Advisor. Had an opportunity to check in with his team, talk about the next couple of days.

This is an important trip. You know, this is an important trip, as we talk about the Indo-Pacific, as we talk about the issues at hand, as we talk about this upcoming meeting that he’s going to have with President Xi. This is an important — as we talk about COP27.

And so he’s been meeting with his team, talking about the next couple of days. And — and, you know, I don’t have much more to share on that.

Q Is there anything else that you can tell us about his day when he gets there? He has about seven hours of downtime before his first meeting.

MS. JEAN-PIERRE: I don’t have anything else to share. If we do, certainly we will — we’ll read that out. You know, it’s going to be an important day, an important trip. And you’ll hear more from us. And also, as you know, he’ll be having other bilateral meetings that we’ll share out once we have those locked in.

Thanks for thinking about my health. Appreciate it. (Laughter.)

All right, guys, thanks. See you on the ground.

7:49 A.M. ICT

whitehouse.gov · by The White House · November 12, 2022

3. Arrest warrant issued for activist on suspicion of cash remittance to N. Korea

We must understand north Korean subversion of the ROK. This is one small indication.

(LEAD) Arrest warrant issued for activist on suspicion of cash remittance to N. Korea | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 김한주 · November 11, 2022

(ATTN: UPDATES headline, lead and 2-4 paras)

SUWON, South Korea, Nov. 11 (Yonhap) -- A court on Friday issued an arrest warrant for the chairman of the Asia Pacific Exchange Association (APEA), a Seoul-based private organization, on suspicion of having sent unauthorized foreign currency remittances to North Korea.

The Suwon District Court in Suwon, south of Seoul, issued the warrant for the APEA chief, identified only by his surname An, on charges of violating the foreign exchange transactions law and instigating concealment of evidence.

An allegedly went into hiding between late September and early October amid prosecutors' investigations into various suspicions involving him but was apprehended in Seoul on Wednesday

Prosecutors suspect that An was involved in underwear maker Ssangbangwool Group's alleged smuggling of millions of U.S. dollars into China in early 2019, and that the money eventually flowed into North Korea. They suspect that dozens of the company executives and employees took part in the alleged currency smuggling on their trips to China.

Under the law, foreign currency in excess of US$10,000 must be reported to customs when taken out of the country.

Prosecutors are said to have recently detected circumstances indicating Ssangbangwool and the APEA delivered US$1.5 million and $500,000, respectively, to North Korea. In addition, they are reportedly looking into whether any funds from Gyeonggi Province, which surrounds Seoul, was included in the APEA money allegedly sent to the North.

ycm@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 김한주 · November 11, 2022

4. Yoon, Japan's Kishida to hold summit in Cambodia

Good. I hope something substantive results from this – at least an agreement for a future meeting.

Yoon, Japan's Kishida to hold summit in Cambodia

The Korea Times · November 12, 2022

Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, left, and Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol walk to the stage for group photo during the ASEAN Plus Three Summits in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, Saturday, Nov. 12. AP-Yonhap 

President Yoon Suk-yeol will hold a summit with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on the sidelines of regional gatherings in Cambodia on Sunday, his office said.

A presidential official told reporters the summit was fixed Saturday, as both leaders are in Phnom Penh to attend various summits involving the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

The two sides agreed on the need for a summit given the importance of security cooperation in the wake of North Korea's increased provocations, the official said.

Recent trilateral security cooperation between South Korea, the United States and Japan also provided an "impetus" for a South Korea-Japan summit, the official added.

Yoon is expected to meet first with Kishida and then with U.S. President Joe Biden before taking part in a trilateral summit involving all three.

The meetings come amid heightened tensions over North Korea's recent weapons tests, including the launch of a ballistic missile over Japan and the apparent failed test of an intercontinental ballistic missile. North Korea is widely expected to conduct what would be its seventh nuclear test soon.

Sunday's summit will be the second time Yoon and Kishida have met.

The two leaders held their first bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York in September, which marked the first one-on-one talks between the leaders of the two nations since December 2019, and raised hope of improving relations badly frayed over wartime forced labor and other issues related to Japan's 1910-45 colonial rule of the Korean Peninsula.

During that meeting, Yoon and Kishida agreed on the need to improve relations between the two countries by resolving pending issues.

Yoon has also been expected to use his trip to Southeast Asia to hold his first meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping when both attend a Group of 20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, next week.

When asked about the possibility of a Yoon-Xi summit, the presidential official said, "I think you'll have to continue to stay tuned." (Yonhap)

The Korea Times · November 12, 2022

5. Yoon voices hope for swift reactivation of Korea-China-Japan cooperation

A vision or a fantasy? I hope he can make this come true. Maybe this is the "stretch goal" and hopefully it will lead to strong ROK-Japan cooperation.

Yoon voices hope for swift reactivation of Korea-China-Japan cooperation

The Korea Times · by 2022-11-11 22:24 | Foreign Affairs · November 12, 2022

Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, second from left, poses with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, left, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, third from left, and Chinese Premier Le Keqiang during an ASEAN Plus Three summit in Phnom Penh on Nov. 12. Yonhap 

President Yoon Suk-yeol on Saturday voiced hope for a swift reactivation of trilateral cooperation mechanisms among South Korea, China and Japan, while also proposing areas to strengthen collaboration between the three nations and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

Yoon made the remarks during an ASEAN Plus Three summit, which brought together the leaders of nine ASEAN countries, and South Korea, China, and Japan. Myanmar, an ASEAN member, did not take part.

"South Korea will play an active role as this year's chair of the South Korea-China-Japan summit, and coordinator representing South Korea, China, and Japan for the ASEAN Plus Three," Yoon said.

"I hope trilateral cooperation mechanisms, including the South Korea-China-Japan summit, will be swiftly reactivated."

The three nations have not held a trilateral summit since December 2019 amid a deterioration of bilateral ties among them and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida attended Saturday's ASEAN Plus Three gathering, but they did not hold a separate trilateral meeting with Yoon.

Yoon also presented ideas to strengthen cooperation between the three East Asian nations and ASEAN, noting this year marks 25 years since the launch of the ASEAN Plus Three.

He said stronger cooperation must be premised on regional stability and peace, and stated South Korea's support for ASEAN's efforts to resolve the Myanmar crisis.

"President Yoon also pointed out that North Korea's successive provocations and attempts to reinforce its nuclear and missile capabilities are a direct and serious threat to the international community, and emphasized that the international community should respond firmly with one voice in the event North Korea launches another intercontinental ballistic missile and stages its seventh nuclear test," the presidential office said in a press release.

Yoon reaffirmed the door remains open to dialogue with the North and that Seoul is prepared to offer bold economic assistance to the North should it respond to his administration's "audacious plan," which promises economic aid in exchange for a denuclearization commitment.

The ASEAN leaders expressed concern over North Korea's nuclear program "with one voice," and urged the North to quickly halt activities threatening regional peace and return to denuclearization talks, according to the presidential office.

Korea's President Yoon Suk Yeol, center, speak as Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, left, and China's Premier Li Keqiang listen to during the ASEAN Plus Three Summits (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, Saturday, Nov. 12. AP-Yonhap 

Yoon further promised to help strengthen cooperation among the ASEAN Plus Three through the smooth operation of currency swap agreements, continued contributions to an emergency rice reserve and the implementation of ASEAN-specific health projects.

"I hope we will further strengthen cooperation going forward to overcome the multiple crises we face," he said, citing war and human rights violations, as well as a crisis in food security and energy security. "I believe we must overcome these complex crises through our solidarity and cooperation."

Yoon said there will be results for international peace and prosperity if ASEAN and the three East Asian nations respond jointly to challenges.

On the summit's sidelines, Yoon met separately with Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh.

The two congratulated each other on this year's 30th anniversary of the two countries' establishment of diplomatic ties and agreed to further increase political exchanges while cooperating closely for a successful visit to South Korea by Vietnamese President Nguyen Xuan Phuc before the end of the year. (Yonhap)

The Korea Times · by 2022-11-11 22:24 | Foreign Affairs · November 12, 2022

6. From opium to cryptocurrency, North Korea maneuvers to earn hard cash for nuclear program

Our intelligence and law enforcement communities (to include Treasury and the Cyber organizations, along with (and led by) State, should conduct a quiet but full court press to help our friends, partners, and allies to take down this global illicit activities network. As much as sanctions enforcement is critically important and needs emphasis, we should be going after all aspects (physical and cyber) of the regime's global network. State has had a good bit of quiet success over the years (going back to a briefing I received from State in 2017 when I made the saem argument - they shared much of the excellent work they had been doing that I was unaware of). But all our organizations need sufficient resources and national level support to do this on a sustained global scale.

From opium to cryptocurrency, North Korea maneuvers to earn hard cash for nuclear program

The Korea Times · November 12, 2022

gettyimagesbank

Reclusive state's illicit activities adapt to changing conditions

By Kang Seung-woo

North Korea has launched various missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles, 35 times this year alone, which analysts say could have cost the nation as much as $10 million each. The North's escalation of tensions has raised a burning question among observers: How can the cash-strapped nation finance and sustain its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) program?

Such a question arises as a number of United Nations sanctions have cut North Korea off from conventional revenue sources and forbidden it from exporting coal, iron, lead and seafood ― and consequently, the "rogue state" has set its sights on stealing cryptocurrencies, which are used to fund the development of its WMD.

In the wake of increasing cyber heists, South Korea, the United States and some other countries remain on alert, exploring ways to prevent digital crimes.

To raise funds for its nuclear and ballistic missile programs, the North Korean regime had long relied on a variety of illicit activities, ranging from producing and distributing opium and smuggling cigarettes to counterfeiting U.S. $100 banknotes, dubbed "superdollars."

But as sanctions closed financial channels, the country pivoted to bolstering sophisticated cyber capabilities, thereby generating revenue in ways that are hard to trace and subject to less governmental oversight and regulation.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un reportedly said in the past, "Cyberwarfare, along with nuclear weapons and missiles, is an 'all-purpose sword' that guarantees our military's capability to strike relentlessly."

Soo Kim, a former CIA analyst now with the RAND Corporation, a think tank in the U.S., has sounded the alarm on the North's crypto-related crimes.

"North Korea's cryptocurrency heists are quite serious given that the proceeds go towards developing the regime's weapons programs. It's a quick study when it comes to finding ways to bypass the international community's watchful eye on sanctions-skirting activities," she said.

"For years we've seen the North Koreans demonstrate impressive ― unfortunately ― cyberhacking capabilities. This skill has now evolved into the cryptocurrency space, which is an attractive environment for Pyongyang as it allows the regime to essentially sweep up huge sums of money with very little manpower or expenditure."

Bruce Klingner, a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative U.S. think tank, also said Pyongyang has developed a comprehensive and sophisticated arsenal of cyberattack tools and methods that are surpassed by few nations.

"The regime has developed a robust and global array of disruptive military, financial and espionage capabilities which demonstrate the vulnerability of the government, financial, infrastructure and corporate sectors," he said.

"U.S. officials assessed North Korea was one of the top four cyber threats capable of launching 'disruptive or destructive cyberattacks' against the United States and poses a significant threat to the international financial system."

He added: "More worrisome, however, is the possibility that Pyongyang could inflict even greater damage during a crisis or hostilities on the Korean Peninsula."

According to blockchain data analysis firm Chainalysis, North Korea stole as much as $400 million worth of digital assets in 2021 through at least seven attacks on cryptocurrency platforms.

Behind the cybercrimes is Lazarus, a North Korean hacker group, allegedly authorized by North Korea's Reconnaissance General Bureau, Pyongyang's foreign intelligence agency, which is currently subject to both U.S. and U.N. sanctions.

The group was implicated in a $625 million crypto hack against Axie Infinity, a play-to-earn online game, in March, while it was also linked to a theft of $100 million in crypto assets from U.S. blockchain Harmony's Horizon Bridge in June, according to blockchain research firm Elliptic.

Last month, it also conducted cyberattacks targeting Japanese crypto asset companies, according to Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun.

With North Korea's unprecedented cyberspace successes at generating revenue for its nuclear ambitions, South Korea and the U.S. are scrambling to find ways to stop it.

According to the South Korean foreign ministry, Seoul plans to review and seek implementation of various measures in order to block North Korea's securing of funds for nuclear and ballistic missile development through online activities.

"We are closely monitoring trends on North Korea's cryptocurrency theft activities through close cooperation with the U.S.," a ministry official said, Tuesday.

The U.S. Treasury Department also updated its sanctions on cryptocurrency mixer Tornado Cash, Tuesday (local time), alleging the service laundered more than $455 million in virtual currency stolen by Lazarus which was used to support North Korea's WMD program.

In August, the U.S. imposed sanctions on Tornado Cash, making it the second virtual currency mixer to be designated for sanctions by the U.S. government.

In May, Washington imposed sanctions on Blender.io for laundering some $20.5 million out of nearly $620 million stolen by Lazarus from Axie Infinity.

The experts said the current countermeasures against North Korea's expanding cybercrimes targeting cryptocurrencies cannot fully handle them.

"There's awareness that this is going on, and some steps have been taken by the international community to stop such activities. But the fact of the matter is, these crypto sweeps happen within a split second, and by the time we learn of the incident, the regime has already walked away with the cash," Soo Kim said.

"So it's not only greater international community awareness that we need; the laws and regulations guiding crypto conduct have not been completely established, making it a largely uncharted territory for cybercriminal states like North Korea to exploit."

Klingner admitted that the U.S. has taken only limited actions against North Korean hackers and other countries that allow them to operate and launder money from cybercrimes.

"The U.S. should fully enforce existing laws and assess whether additional legislative and executive actions are needed," he said, calling for enhanced regulations on cybercurrency exchanges and decentralized finance.

"Washington should determine a range of punitive steps, both cyber and kinetic, for responding to attacks deemed detrimental to national security."

The Korea Times · November 12, 2022

7. Going nuclear wouldn't be without costs​ (ROK) ​

What are the benefits? Are such benefits worth the cost? Can weasels with any confidence that Kim would be deterred in any way by ROK nuclear weapons? What would be the concept of employment of these weapons? If the answer is we do not intend to use them except for deterrence...then.... well... you do not have deterrence.

Excerpts:

Seoul could also face a worsening strategic position. If Washington were unwilling to sanction Seoul over acquiring nuclear weapons, Beijing may simply remove any pretense of implementing U.N. sanctions and provide economic and military aid to Pyongyang.?

The costs of South Korean nuclear weapons are not merely the prospect of a worsening strategic position and economic sanctions, but also potential power shortages. Nuclear power currently accounts for 27 percent of South Korea's power supply and the Yoon administration would like to expand that to 33 percent. Without its own domestic reserves of nuclear fuel, South Korea is dependent on the Nuclear Suppliers Group which conditions the supply of nuclear fuel on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons.??

The decision to go nuclear is ultimately one for South Korea to make based on its own security needs, but the costs would potentially be very high with no certainty that doing so would achieve Seoul's strategic objectives. Any debate that does not robustly discuss the downside of acquiring a nuclear weapon risks leaving South Korea worse rather than better off without them.?

Going nuclear wouldn't be without costs

The Korea Times · November 10, 2022

By Troy Stangarone

Should South Korea acquire its own nuclear weapons? This question tends to arise periodically whenever Pyongyang significantly ups the pace of its nuclear and ballistic missile tests. With North Korea growing increasingly provocative with its ballistic missile tests and adopting a policy that allows for preemptive nuclear strikes, it is not surprising that the issue has surfaced again. However, any debate should include a robust discussion of the cost of going nuclear.?

The arguments in favor of South Korea acquiring its own nuclear weapons have tended to fall into four categories, and a fifth has been added by some experts recently. One, that has been somewhat changed by North Korea's willingness to engage in a preemptive strike, is that Pyongyang is seeking to develop a second strike capability that would alter the military balance of power on the Korean Peninsula and that a South Korean nuclear weapon is needed to counter the growing threat from the North.??

Another argument that is often used to justify a South Korean nuclear weapon is that the international community has been ineffective in convincing North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons program. Related to this position is that a South Korean nuclear weapon, and potentially a Japanese nuclear capability, could focus the minds in Beijing and perhaps help to facilitate talks.??

The fourth reason often given is whether the United States would give up Los Angeles, or any other U.S. city, to save Seoul. A new rationale that has come to the surface and relates to this conundrum is that a South Korean nuclear weapon would eliminate the need for the United States to engage in nuclear retaliation.??

While there are other reasons for South Korea to acquire a nuclear weapon ― polling by the Chicago Council of Global Affairs, for example, suggests 26 percent of South Koreans believe it would raise South Korea's prestige ― policy-related reasons tend to fall into concerns about North Korea's growing capabilities, the inability of the international community to stop Pyongyang's nuclear and ballistic missile developments and concerns over U.S. reliability.??

There are problems, however, with these rationales. While Russia in the past has engaged in negotiations to reduce nuclear weapons with the United States, China has steadfastly refused to do so. There is little reason to believe that Pyongyang would engage in arms control reduction simply because Seoul had its own nuclear deterrent. Instead, a South Korean nuclear weapon is just as likely to be used as another justification for North Korea to cling to its own program.?

The debate over whether the United States would sacrifice Los Angeles for Seoul is unlikely to be the choice the United States confronts. Should Washington back down in the face of North Korean nuclear blackmail it would place itself at risk of Russian and Chinese blackmail, further undermine faith in its broader alliance system and also encourage other states to develop nuclear weapons.??

Any North Korean attack on South Korea is also likely to result in tens of thousands of U.S. civilian and military deaths, something no president could afford not to respond to. The question will merely be whether eliminating the Kim regime can best be achieved with conventional or nuclear weapons.?

A South Korean nuclear weapon could also focus China, but in ways detrimental to South Korea. China would likely look to the United States to take the lead on international economic sanctions of South Korea as it has on North Korea. As a trade-dependent nation, South Korea would be especially vulnerable to economic sanctions if the United States were not supportive. Even if the United States were to support a South Korean nuclear weapon, South Korea could still face economic costs. China is by far South Korea's largest trading partner and could do significant economic damage on its own. Any effort to go nuclear would most likely require a strategic decoupling of the two economies in areas such as critical technologies, minerals and manufacturing parts in advance.?

Seoul could also face a worsening strategic position. If Washington were unwilling to sanction Seoul over acquiring nuclear weapons, Beijing may simply remove any pretense of implementing U.N. sanctions and provide economic and military aid to Pyongyang.?

The costs of South Korean nuclear weapons are not merely the prospect of a worsening strategic position and economic sanctions, but also potential power shortages. Nuclear power currently accounts for 27 percent of South Korea's power supply and the Yoon administration would like to expand that to 33 percent. Without its own domestic reserves of nuclear fuel, South Korea is dependent on the Nuclear Suppliers Group which conditions the supply of nuclear fuel on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons.??

The decision to go nuclear is ultimately one for South Korea to make based on its own security needs, but the costs would potentially be very high with no certainty that doing so would achieve Seoul's strategic objectives. Any debate that does not robustly discuss the downside of acquiring a nuclear weapon risks leaving South Korea worse rather than better off without them.?

Troy Stangarone (ts@keia.org) is the senior director of congressional affairs and trade at the Korea Economic Institute.

The Korea Times · November 10, 2022

8. S. Korean military presents bill to expand nuke, WMD threat response body

I did not know the military could present a bill to the National Assembly.

S. Korean military presents bill to expand nuke, WMD threat response body

koreaherald.com · by Yonhap · November 10, 2022

By Yonhap

Published : Nov 10, 2022 - 10:36 Updated : Nov 10, 2022 - 10:52

•  Back to List
• More article by this Writer

(Joint Chief of Staff)

South Korea's military on Thursday presented a bill to expand its nuclear and weapons of mass destruction threat response center to better counter evolving military threats from North Korea, according to officials.

The bill calls for the reorganization and expansion of the center under the Joint Chiefs of Staff into a larger directorate-level body, the Defense Ministry said.

The JCS has recommended the plan as part of efforts to better deter and respond to various threats, including those from North Korea's nuclear and missile programs.

The bill is expected to take effect at the start of next year after the gathering of opinions from related agencies and an approval from the Cabinet. (Yonhap)

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• More article by this Writer

9. ＜Inside N. Korea＞N. Korea takes issue with high school students taking videos of kissing, dancing, fighting, and harassing the homeless

Next we will see the north Korean version of Iran's morality police.

But on a serious note this is representative of the draconian population and resources control measures the regime has implemented to ensure there is no resistance and collective action from the Korean people living in the north.

＜Inside N. Korea＞N. Korea takes issue with high school students taking videos of kissing, dancing, fighting, and harassing the homeless

asiapress.org

(FILE PHOTO) Middle and high school students are reportedly taking photos of homeless people. This picture shows a homeless boy – likely a middle school student – warming himself with coal briquettes. Taken by ASIAPRESS in Yanggang Province’s Hyesan in November 2012.

North Korean high school students have long taken videos and pictures with their cell phones to show to others, but their country’s government has recently begun efforts to crack down on what it calls “non-socialism behavior.” In late September, the government handed down an official notice to schools and citizen organizations in Hyesan stating that it would heavily punish such behavior. An ASIAPRESS reporting partner in Yanggang Province provided the following report. (KANG Ji-won)

In September, an incident involving a cell phone occurred in Hyesan. The reporting partner provided the details:

“A student at Sinhung Middle School was filmed giving a homeless person bread and ordering them to do martial arts moves. The student showed the film to other students, after which he was caught by the authorities. Then, in October, an official notice was handed down saying that the authorities will heavily control what videos are taken with cell phones.”

※ North Korean middle schools are six-year institutions. The last three years are equivalent to high school in South Korea.

◆ Young people film dancing, kissing and harassment of the homeless

There are an estimated six million cell phone users in North Korea, or around 30% of the population. Use of mobile phones in North Korea rapidly expanded following the start of a new cell phone service in December 2008. Smartphones are particularly popular in the country given that they can take video and can connect to North Korea’s intranet. The phones cannot connect to the Internet, however.

What kind of videos do middle and high school students in North Korea like to make? The reporting partner explained:

“Middle and high school students, along with young people in general, have filmed dancing, kissing, fights that break out among adult neighbors, and ‘special moves’ such as roundhouse kicks, Taekwondo patterns, and breaking stones with fists. Young people have also filmed themselves harassing homeless people, where they’ll give the homeless food and force them to dance.

Cell phones are not allowed to be brought into school, but many students frequently do just that and gather to watch videos. Students with fun or unique videos to share can gain popularity among their peers. That’s why young people try hard to make videos.”

◆ The authorities monitor even the emails of young people

The authorities started monitoring young people’s cell phone use in 2019. Officials have frequently stopped young people on the street to check the pictures, videos and documents on young people’s phones. Officials have even checked the content of emails to make sure young people aren’t using South Korean—style language. The recent incident involving the middle school student is an extension of this broader effort to exert control over young people’s use of cell phones.

“The authorities have handed down an official notice saying that if there’s a problematic video on a cell phone, the phone will be confiscated and school officials, Youth League officials, and even family members will be held responsible. The neighborhood watch units have also warned that young people should avoid taking any strange videos.”

◆ N. Korea’s regime is concerned about the spread of information through cell phones

For the past several years, North Korean authorities have made unannounced house searches along with searches of personal items on the streets – all without warrants. During these searches, the officials look at the content of cell phones first. Another ASIAPRESS reporting partner in North Hamgyung Province said:

“Now I’m uncomfortable about even having a cell phone. Getting caught makes things tough, so I don’t even use the email or camera functions on my phone anymore. I just use it to call other people. There are people who complain that the government should just stop people from using cell phones if it’s going to harass people so much.”

Why, then, is the Kim Jong-un regime making so much effort to crack down on how cell phones are used? There are two reasons for this. The first is related to the government’s intensifying efforts to control the behavior and thoughts of young people. In this vein, the North Korean government enacted the “Youth Education Guarantee Act” in March 2021 as part of full-fledged efforts to exert control over young people.

The second reason involves the North Korean government’s distrust of personal devices such as cell phones. The country’s leadership is likely concerned about videos or pictures being taken of incidents, accidents and other aspects of the society that can then be spread throughout the country absent of government control.

※ ASIAPRESS smuggles Chinese cellphones into North Korea to maintain communication with its reporting partners.

Map of North Korea ( ASIAPRESS)

asiapress.org

10. On Island Near North Korea, Locals Lament Return of Tensions

On Island Near North Korea, Locals Lament Return of Tensions

November 11, 2022 7:30 AM

• William Gallo
• Lee Juhyun

voanews.com

Seoul —

Kim Bu-jeon has lived on Yeonpyeong Island her entire life, but is still not used to the pounding explosions from nearby military drills that rattle her single-level, red brick home in this tiny fishing community that lies less than 10 kilometers from North Korean territory.

Lifelong Yeonpyeong resident Kim Bu-jeon, 97, speaks to VOA outside her house, Nov. 8, 2022. She worries about miscalculations as inter-Korean tensions rise. (William Gallo/VOA)

“Our military is shooting today – why?” asks the 97-year-old Kim as she leans against the railing of her front porch and bats away flies feasting on a row of silver croaker fish laid out to dry.

Before and after she spoke, muffled booms could be heard in the distance.

“I’m worried when we shoot. I’m worried when North Korea shoots. I’m worried about it all,” she said.

The residents of Yeonpyeong Island, which is half military outpost and half sleepy fishing village, are especially nervous these days. Relations between North and South Korea are at their worst point in years, with the North launching a record number of missiles and the South increasing its own military drills in response.

Although most South Koreans do not stress over inter-Korean tensions, which have risen and fallen for decades, Yeonpyeong residents have little choice. In nearby waters, North and South Korea exchanged warning shots last month, after a North Korean ship crossed a disputed sea border. When VOA visited this week, a South Korean navy ship stood watch near the Yeonpyeong port and was easily visible as residents and soldiers arrived by ferry, the only way to reach the remote outpost.

Local resident Kim Jae-hyun, 85, says he is worried about increased military activity around his hometown, in Yeonpyeong, Nov. 8, 2022. (Kim Hyungjin/VOA)

For some, the situation recalls memories of 2010, when North Korea fired more than 170 shells at Yeonpyeong Island, killing four people, including two civilians. It was the first time North Korea had shelled South Korean territory since the 1950-53 Korean War.

With the two Koreas again exchanging threats, the island’s mostly elderly residents are concerned, especially after local media reported last week that North Korea appeared to at least partially open the doors of two artillery tunnels on the coastline across from Yeonpyeong, in violation of a 2018 inter-Korean agreement meant to reduce military tensions.

“Yeah, I’m worried. Who wouldn’t worry? I can hear shots all around here,” said Kim Jae-hyun, an 85-year-old man sitting outside a community center about 20 meters from a bunker meant to protect residents in the case of a North Korean attack.

Locals report hearing more artillery fire in recent weeks, although it’s not always clear where the sounds originate. Some residents speculate they come from North Korean artillery cannons; others guess it is South Korea’s military conducting target practice; still others say the shots are meant to warn off Chinese boats that fish illegally in waters near the island. A South Korean military official posted on the island refused to comment on the source of the explosions.

Cha Jae-geun, who heads a society of local fishermen, says his livelihood has become more difficult as both Koreas fire weapons nearby, in Yeonpyeong, Nov. 8, 2022. (Kim Hyungjin/VOA)

It is certain, though, that the explosions complicate the livelihoods of Yeonpyeong residents, most of whom rely on the blue crabs and oysters caught in the surrounding waters. When North Korea fires weapons, the South Korean military designates the waters a military zone and forces fishing boats to leave. That has happened five times this year, said Cha Jae-geun, who heads a local society of fishermen.

In Cha’s view, the situation has worsened since South Korea’s conservative president, Yoon Suk Yeol, was inaugurated in May. Yoon has taken a much more assertive stance against North Korea than his predecessor, Moon Jae-in.

“I know people have different [political] opinions, but I feel this issue,” said Cha. “In the end, we fishermen are the ones that lose.”

South Korea’s government says its drills are a justified response to North Korean provocations. North Korea has also characterized its weapons tests as defensive, even as it becomes more explicitly aggressive toward the South. Many analysts say North Korea appears intent on creating a sense of crisis, possibly to force the United States, South Korea’s ally, to negotiate on Pyongyang’s terms.

Many in Yeonpyeong express unease about this dynamic, fearing a deadly miscalculation. The fears are not just hypothetical. Kim, the 97-year-old, became emotional as she recalled fleeing to her neighbor’s home during the 2010 attack, only to have North Korean shells fall on that house.

“What if North Korea thinks we are firing at them and strikes us again?” she asked.

In the 12 years since the shelling, nearly all signs of the North Korean attack have disappeared. One exception is a simple streetside memorial on a hilltop near a small military outpost. Beneath the memorial is a meterwide crater, where a South Korean marine was killed by a North Korean shell.

No one in Yeonpyeong needs to be reminded of the danger – something they’ve lived with for decades. “I am old. When I die, I die. If I live, I live,” said Kim. “What I’m worried about is my children.”

Kim Hyungjin contributed to this report.

voanews.com

11. ‘Accident Prevention Month’ means police extort more than usual in North Korea

Any excuse to crack down on the population to prevent resistance.

‘Accident Prevention Month’ means police extort more than usual in North Korea

Under the pretext of boosting traffic safety, officers will ticket every little violation – or demand bribes

By Chang Gyu Ahn for RFA Korean

2022.11.09

rfa.org

November is “Accident Prevention Measures Month” in North Korea – which means that police are shaking down citizens for fines and bribes more than usual, sources in the isolated country told Radio Free Asia.

Paying off the cops is a way of life in North Korea.

Since most North Koreans can barely survive on the salaries of their government-assigned jobs – which in 2018 averaged about U.S.$4 per month – many families have side jobs, buying and selling goods as merchants or providing services.

Police officers and other authority figures, however, use their positions to extract bribes or fine people and pocket the money when they are in violation of minor safety codes.

November and May are government-sponsored accident prevention months, so people need to be especially careful because raids and crackdowns are more frequent, a resident in the city of Tanchon in the eastern province of South Hamgyong told RFA’s Korean Service on condition of anonymity for security reasons.

The official line is that the extra attention is to boost traffic safety. But in reality, police officers “tyrannically exploit people under the pretext of preventing accidents,” the source said. “People complain that this is going too far.”

People go so far as to liken police officers to thieves or “Oppashi,” a villainous Japanese police officer from a popular North Korean film set during the time Japan colonized the Korean Peninsula.

Police will vigorously ticket every little violation they can find, scanning car and motorcycle license plates to make sure they are up to date, the source said.

Even bicycle license plates are scrutinized. “Bicycle license plates used to be issued after the owner registered the bicycle at the local police office, but nobody has been doing that since the early 2000s,” she said. “So you either make your own or buy it from the market and attach it to the front of the bike.”

If found without a plate, bike owners can expect to pay 1,000 won (12 cents) for regular bicycles and 10,000 won ($1.21) for electric ones, according to the source.

At the end of the month, the local security department with the fewest accidents during the month is considered to have done a good job, sources said.

Authorities also check for workplace violations, a resident of Chongjin in the northeastern province of North Hamgyong told RFA on condition of anonymity to speak freely. If the police spot a violation, businesses can be forced to temporarily close.

“Security guards have been inspecting commercial service facilities such as restaurants and public baths,” the second source said.

To avoid the penalty, business owners can offer the police a bribe.

A restaurant owner in the Kyo-dong neighborhood got out of having to shut down due to a potential fire hazard by serving the inspecting security agent a bowl of dangogi-jang, an expensive stew made with dog meat, and 100,000 won ($12) in cash, she said.

“The public is on the verge of explosion due to their extreme dissatisfaction with the security agents who viciously extort residents to fill their pockets,” she said.

Translated by Claire Shinyoung Oh Lee. Written in English by Eugene Whong.

rfa.org

12. North Korea’s Inflection Point – Analysis

Excerpts:

While many observers looked to dissect his statement as a threat of a nuclear test, others believe Kim JongUn is biding his time on this forthcoming detonation. It is believed that Kim has nothing to lose by taking his time and continuing his strategy of graduated escalation before delivering his coup de grâce, a major nuclear test or even a series of tests.

To be sure, with the midterm elections over and more emboldened, President Joe Biden is set to meet Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of Japan and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol during a trip to Asia to discuss how to stem North Korea’s nuclear program given the tests and cybercrime funding. The leaders are meeting in Cambodia for the ASEAN and the Group of 20 industrialized nations meetings. Biden may be meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping directly about North Korea’s nuclear issue. Interestingly, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will also be in attendance. These important meetings are occurring during the window for North Korea to test a nuclear weapon. So a showdown seems to be on the horizon.

Overall, North Korea is using 2022 to reaching its maximum capabilities as a nuclear armed state capable of launching missiles to hit targets from Guam to Hawaii and in between. The cybercriminal aspect that helped to build the capacities we see today continues to require maximum policy focus in the upcoming meetings in Southeast Asia.

North Korea’s Inflection Point – Analysis

eurasiareview.com · by Dr. Theodore Karasik · November 12, 2022

With the US midterm elections over and the results clear, specific actors are going to proceed. North Korea is no exception because of the sharp escalation in doctrinal changes and missile tests that started in January 2022.

The cryptocurrency funding aspect for these programs is of interest as the end of the year approaches with more trouble from Pyongyang. Next week, more answers will become available regarding how North Korea clashes with its neighbors.

North Korea’s funding for its kinetic programs is troublesome. It has stolen more than $300 million worth of cryptocurrency. An $81 million cyberheist from the Bangladesh Central Bank and $60 million from Taiwan’s Far Eastern International Bank stand out as two key examples of the size of these North Korean operations. An Israeli crypto firm was a recent target of what appears to be an attempt by Pyongyang to steal more crypto assets.

North Korea’s cyberfunding is highly political too, sending a strong message about capabilities. The first big example was in 2014: North Korea hacked Sony Pictures Entertainment as revenge for the movie “The Interview,” causing financial and reputational damage. Around the same time, it sent spear-phishing messages to other victims in the entertainment industry, including a movie theater chain and a UK company that was producing a fictional series involving a British nuclear scientist taken prisoner in North Korea.

In 2017, Pyongyang was behind the malware used in the 2017 WannaCry 2.0 global ransomware, reaping more cash for North Korea. It conducted such operations through the Lazarus Group and a North Korean government front company, Chosun Expo Joint Venture also known as Korea Expo Joint Venture. Pyongyang is the best of the best in terms of using cybercrime as a revenue generating technique to pay for dangerous and destabilizing weapon systems, some even in underground chambers beneath water reservoirs. When North Korea conducts its nuclear test, remember where the funding came from.

Importantly, on US midterm election day, the US made a smart move by redesignating privacy crypto-exchange Tornado Cash as a sanctioned entity, arguing that North Korea was using the service to support its weapons of mass destruction program. North Korea has been financing their weapons programs via crypto for a number of years now, far in advance of other illicit crypto ecosystems. Other countries are watching out for Pyongyang’s forward leaning cyber criminals.

More importantly, the US-South Korea response to North Korea’s antics this year is some of the most assertive in years. Joint exercises, responses, flight formations including two B1 bombers, have been showing their might to Pyongyang. South Korean and US warplanes also practiced bombing a target in the Yellow Sea in response and fighter jets from the US and Japan carried out joint drills over the Sea of Japan.

North Korean President Kim Jong Un is not one to cower under threats, even those coming from the US Secretary of Defense about North Korea ceasing to exist. Within the North Korean leadership mindset, Pyongyang becomes more emboldened because of its kinetic achievements in this key year for Kim.

Timing is everything in the Northeast Asian theater especially from Pyongyang’s point of view. Last week, North Korea launched over 30 missiles and hundreds of artillery shells after threats from Pak Jong Chon, secretary of the Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea. He strongly condemned the joint military drills between South Korea and the US, and asserted that “the US and South Korea will get to know what an irrevocable and awful mistake they made.” This warning is being received by policymakers and stakeholders.

While many observers looked to dissect his statement as a threat of a nuclear test, others believe Kim JongUn is biding his time on this forthcoming detonation. It is believed that Kim has nothing to lose by taking his time and continuing his strategy of graduated escalation before delivering his coup de grâce, a major nuclear test or even a series of tests.

To be sure, with the midterm elections over and more emboldened, President Joe Biden is set to meet Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of Japan and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol during a trip to Asia to discuss how to stem North Korea’s nuclear program given the tests and cybercrime funding. The leaders are meeting in Cambodia for the ASEAN and the Group of 20 industrialized nations meetings. Biden may be meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping directly about North Korea’s nuclear issue. Interestingly, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will also be in attendance. These important meetings are occurring during the window for North Korea to test a nuclear weapon. So a showdown seems to be on the horizon.

Overall, North Korea is using 2022 to reaching its maximum capabilities as a nuclear armed state capable of launching missiles to hit targets from Guam to Hawaii and in between. The cybercriminal aspect that helped to build the capacities we see today continues to require maximum policy focus in the upcoming meetings in Southeast Asia.

eurasiareview.com · by Dr. Theodore Karasik · November 12, 2022

13.

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Senior Advisor, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com