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Quotes of the Day:
"A wise man proportions his belief to the evidence."
– David Hume
“We can disagree and still love each other unless your disagreement is rooted in my oppression and denial of my humanity and right to exist”
– James Baldwin
“Tolerance becomes a crime when applied to evil.”
– Thomas Mann
1. Campbell to Trump: Be ‘constant, not variable’ for US allies
2. N. Korea warns of 'retaliatory response' over S. Korea-U.S.-Japan's summit agreement
3. "Hey, you bastard"... Low-quality Radio Communications by North Korean Soldiers Intercepted by Ukraine - Analysis by 'Storm Corps' Defector
4. Death sentence: Senior state security official sold secrets to Chinese trader
5. Ukraine Is Now a Proxy War for Asian Powers
6. N. Korea warns of 'retaliatory response' over S. Korea-U.S.-Japan's summit agreement
7. "No one expected to return": Former soldier reveals dark reality of NK troops in Russia
8. Abductee family group vows to go ahead with sending leaflets to N. Korea
9.North Korea's Kim orders "limitless" nuclear expansion, criticizes US-led alliances
10. North Korea Watchers and insight peddlers
11. Seoul offers to play key role in possible talks between Washington, Pyongyang
12. Rights activists tell NK soldiers fighting Ukraine to 'stand on the side of justice'
13. Editorial: China's inaction on N. Korean provocations risks its own security
14. Would North Korea Really Send 100,000 Troops to Fight in Ukraine?
15. N. Korea's Kim urges extensive promotion of relations with Russia: KCNA
16. Yoon decries N. Korea-Russia military cooperation at G20 summit
1. Campbell to Trump: Be ‘constant, not variable’ for US allies
We need our "silk web"of alliances, partners, and multi and mini lateral relationships.
Campbell to Trump: Be ‘constant, not variable’ for US allies
koreaherald.com · by Ji Da-gyum · November 19, 2024
S. Korean FM reaffirms commitment to ‘peace through strength’
By Ji Da-gyum
Published : Nov. 19, 2024 - 15:27
US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell speaks during a forum co-hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the Korea Foundation in Washington on Monday.
S. Korean FM reaffirms commitment to ‘peace through strength’
US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell speaks during a forum co-hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the Korea Foundation in Washington on Monday.
Kurt Campbell, the US deputy secretary of state and a key architect of America’s Indo-Pacific strategy, made a direct appeal to the incoming Trump administration: be a "constant," not a "variable," in its military presence and commitment to South Korea and other key allies in the region.
Campbell warned that scaling back US troop levels, especially in South Korea and Japan, or renegotiating the defense cost-sharing agreements with the treaty allies secured under the Biden administration would jeopardize US strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific, where China continues to expand its military and economic influence.
"This is a period when Asian interlocutors -- our partners and friends -- are looking for elements of commitment and stability. They want to see the United States as a constant, not a variable. Now, obviously, transitions are challenging periods," Campbell said in his keynote remarks Monday during the 9th annual Korea-US Strategic Forum in Washington co-hosted by CSIS and the Korea Foundation.
"I think any effort that would look to substantially remove US forces or change the nature of our fundamental commitments to the Indo-Pacific, if that happened at this juncture, would be contrary to American strategic interests."
Campbell stated that a pivotal aspect of recent US military diplomacy is the strategic redistribution of US military capabilities and resources, historically concentrated in Northeast Asia such as South Korea and Japan, to bolster engagements in Southeast Asia and Australia.
"I think that effort is extraordinarily important. But at the core of our military engagement are our rock-solid alliances with both Japan and South Korea," Campbell said, alluding to the importance of the shift amid the growing rivalry with China -- though he did not explicitly mention Beijing.
"After decades of having to make the domestic arguments about why forward-deployed American engagement is essential to the maintenance of peace and stability, that battle has largely been won in both Japan and the ROK," he added, referring to South Korea by its official name, the Republic of Korea.
Campbell also defended the newly inked Special Measures Agreement with South Korea, a defense-cost sharing deal for 2026 to 2030, which was officially signed in early November.
“We've recently concluded extraordinarily generous and gracious host nation support arrangements with both Japan and South Korea, the ROK, signaling the determination to keep the United States forward, engaged and deployed," Campbell said. "My hope is that the wisdom of these efforts will be fully appreciated in a new administration.”
The most recent Host Nation Support agreement between Japan and the US, signed in January 2022, is in effect until 2027.
When asked about the future of the Nuclear Consultative Group between Seoul and Washington under Trump, Campbell emphasized that the US must uphold a strong and sustained commitment to extended deterrence for South Korea against North Korea.
Campbell highlighted that deterrence efforts must not be seen as a one-time or isolated measure, stressing the importance of continuous deployments of US strategic assets, ongoing consultations at all levels, and the continuation of vital military exercises with South Korea.
At the same event, South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul said, “The Yoon Suk Yeol administration's determination to assume roles and responsibilities commensurate with Korea's strength comports very well with the expectation that allies must pull their weight.”
“Seoul, too, is committed to maintaining peace through strength and making sure that its defense spending is robust,” Cho said in his congratulatory remarks, presented on video.
Cho noted that only three US allies and partners -- Israel, Greece and Poland -- allocate a higher percentage of their gross domestic product to defense than South Korea.
Reflecting on the past, Cho pointed out that during the first Trump administration, Seoul lacked both an Indo-Pacific strategy and a strong relationship with Japan. However, Cho stressed that South Korea’s current Indo-Pacific strategy and its strengthened trilateral cooperation with the US and Japan are well-positioned to align with the priorities of the second Trump administration.
Cho further emphasized the critical link between North Korea’s denuclearization and curbing Russia’s aggression, noting that Moscow’s actions have been bolstered by Pyongyang’s supply of weapons and deployment of troops.
“Its troops and weapons deployed to Russia are directly threatening Europe and reshaping security dynamics in the Indo-Pacific and Europe," Cho said.
"Thus, any attempt to end the war in Ukraine would be inadequate without addressing North Korea's illicit assistance to Russia's war efforts, and any attempt to stop North Korea's military support for Russia's aggression would be incomplete without a parallel push to denuclearize North Korea."
koreaherald.com · by Ji Da-gyum · November 19, 2024
2. N. Korea warns of 'retaliatory response' over S. Korea-U.S.-Japan's summit agreement
Political warfare and blackmail diplomacy. Political warfare to attack alliances, and black diplomacy using threats, increase tensions, and provocations to gain political and economic concessions.
(LEAD) N. Korea warns of 'retaliatory response' over S. Korea-U.S.-Japan's summit agreement | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Park Boram · November 19, 2024
(ATTN: UPDATES with Seoul's reaction in last 2 paras)
SEOUL, Nov. 19 (Yonhap) -- North Korea warned Tuesday that trilateral security cooperation among South Korea, the United States and Japan would prompt more "retaliatory responses," days after the leaders of the three nations decided to establish a secretariat to bolster three-way cooperation.
The North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) carried the message in a commentary after President Yoon Suk Yeol, U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba issued a joint statement in Lima last week, announcing the establishment of the secretariat.
North Korea criticized the decision as deepening the roots of confrontation on the Korean Peninsula and in the Asia-Pacific region, claiming the U.S. attempts to "seize political and military control" through a military bloc that has evolved into a "nuclear alliance."
(From L) South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba pose for a photo on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Lima on Nov. 15, 2024. (Yonhap)
It warned that the decision would lead to the habitualization of strong retaliatory responses from North Korea.
North Korea derided the "era of trilateral partnership" touted by Seoul, Washington and Tokyo, saying it is turning into "an era of trilateral ruin." It also claimed that all three leaders who devised it at their Camp David summit in August last year have "completely lost" public support.
It claimed that one of them has already been ousted from the prime ministership, another is scheduled to step down as president soon, while the third is at risk of impeachment.
"The miserable fates of those who took the first step toward trilateral cooperation demonstrate that 'the era of trilateral cooperation' is a grim era with no future," the KCNA said.
An official at South Korea's unification ministry defended trilateral cooperation involving the three nations as an "effort to safeguard universal values, such as freedom, human rights and peace, as well as international order.
"It's a shameless attitude from North Korea, which spearheaded the destruction of universal values and international order," the official noted.
pbr@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Park Boram · November 19, 2024
3. "Hey, you bastard"... Low-quality Radio Communications by North Korean Soldiers Intercepted by Ukraine - Analysis by 'Storm Corps' Defector
"Hey, you bastard"... Low-quality Radio Communications by North Korean Soldiers Intercepted by Ukraine - Analysis by 'Storm Corps' Defector
asiapress.org
A video released by Ukraine's Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security (SPRAVDI) on October 18 shows what appears to be a group of North Korean soldiers receiving supplies in Russia.
On November 10, the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Service (GUR) released intercepted radio communications from North Korean troops deployed in Russia on its official YouTube channel. The conversations suggest that North Korean forces operate in dispersed, small tactical units. A North Korean defector who used to serve in the elite 'Storm Corps' said that based on the unprofessional methods of communication and the use of profanity, these soldiers are likely to be young and inexperienced. (By KANG Ji-won)
◆ 'Park Eagle', 'Seal'…Call Signs Show Lack of Professionalism
In the audio released by GUR, unusual call signs like 'Park Eagle', 'Seal', and 'Earth' appear, which differ from North Korea's standard military call sign system. Let's look at the transcript of the communications:
"Park Eagle, Park Eagle. This is Earth Five. Over"
"Earth, Earth. This is Park Eagle. Signal strength"
"Park Eagle, I'm not running, I'm flying. Wait"
"Lion Two, hey, you bastard. Lion, Lion. This is Seal. Over"
"Lion Two, Lion Two. This is Seal. Over"
"Seal Two, Seal One. This is Seal. Over"
From the intercepted radio content, it appears that seven teams - "Park Eagle, Earth Five, Earth, Lion Two, Seal One, Seal Two, Seal" - are communicating via radio, and the commander using profanity appears to be "Seal."
In the audio, “dwaegi” sounds like “pig” in Korean, but “earth,” which has similar sounds, is often used as a call sign in the North Korean military.
Kim, a defector from North Korea's elite 'Storm Corps,' said, “'Storm Corps' are operated in groups of 12 members, each group has a second lieutenant rank leader and a specialized communications officer. Generally, each group uses predetermined call sighs, and names such as 'Pak Eagle' and 'Seal' are not used in the 'Storm Corps' and are unprofessional.”
◆ Lack of Training and Command Structure; Soldiers in their Early 20s?
The intercepted conversations revealed the use of informal expressions like "I'm not running, I'm flying" and profanity like "hey, you bastard." Kim, a North Korean defector, explained that "In the North Korean military, radio communications are primarily conducted via shortwave and rarely include profanity."
In his opinion, this style of communication reflects inadequate training and an inappropriate command structure.
Also, Kim says "It is estimated that these North Korean troops are conducting their operations in small units of 5-7 men rather than traditional platoon or company units. They probably have short-wave radios in small units for command transmission.” He also noted "Given the use of profanity in radio communications, these soldiers are likely in their early 20s and operating under an incomplete command structure.”
Kim served in the Storm Corps' 58th Brigade stationed in Singyeri, Sariwon, North Hwanghae Province from 1998 to 2006, where he directly experienced North Korean military communication structures and command systems.
asiapress.org
4. Death sentence: Senior state security official sold secrets to Chinese trader
The regime is not messing around. Traitors get executed.
This is life inside north Korea and provides one insight into the nature of the Kim family regime and its attempt to control the Korean people in the north.
Excerpts:
The execution of such a high-ranking official is thought to underscore the Ministry of State Security’s determination to beef up internal security and harshly combat security threats following the recent amendment of the North Korean constitution to define South Korea as a hostile state.
“The lecture emphasized the urgency of fully reviewing the safety of state secrets and measures to ensure those secrets aren’t leaked. Officials say this is the first internal probe at the ministry to be addressed in such detail since the execution of Jang Song Taek. They regard it as signaling sweeping punishment of anyone who has profited financially from selling secrets to China,” the source said.
“Officials say the incident goes to show you can’t trust your peers in state security departments because anybody could be watching you and ready to stab you in the back. They say this underscores the fact that people nowadays should watch what they say and do and keep an eye on each other.”
Death sentence: Senior state security official sold secrets to Chinese trader - Daily NK English
A sweeping security review signals harsh punishment for anyone selling state secrets to China, the first such probe since Jang Song Taek's execution
By Jeong Tae Joo - November 19, 2024
dailynk.com · by Jeong Tae Joo · November 19, 2024
A senior official from North Korea’s Ministry of State Security was recently executed on charges of leaking state secrets to a Chinese trader, Daily NK has learned.
“The official was arrested for providing a summary of internal ministry documents to a Chinese trader and sentenced to death on Nov. 1. The execution was carried out immediately,” a source in North Korea told Daily NK recently.
The official who was executed held the rank of colonel, went by the surname Cho, and was in his 50s. He oversaw the overall guidance and inspections for the 31st Border Guard Brigade within the Border Security Command.
According to the source, Cho was arrested by the Ministry of State Security this past March on charges of giving Chinese traders an SD card hidden in contraband containing internal documents from the ministry, which were categorized as first-class and second-class secrets. Cho had allegedly transmitted the documents during his trading activities with China while ostensibly inspecting a unit of the 31st Brigade in North Pyongan province.
“The background of Cho’s arrest isn’t exactly known, even inside the military. Various possibilities have been raised, such as that the state security department in the 31st Brigade was tipped off or a Chinese national in North Korea provided incriminating information. But the Ministry of State Security said that Cho confessed to selling state secrets for money during questioning and that execution is the fate of every traitor,” the source said.
News about the official’s execution was given in back-to-back “emergency lectures” on Nov. 6 and 7 for department heads at the Ministry of State Security and for department heads at the command posts of the 25th Brigade (in Ryanggang province), the 27th Brigade (in North Hamgyong province), the 29th Brigade (in Jagang province) and the 31st Brigade (in North Pyongan province), all border guard brigades under the Border Security Command.
These lectures disclosed Cho’s identity and rank and stated that he had been executed for espionage because the secrets he had provided to Chinese traders had been then leaked to South Korea, which North Korea now regards as a hostile state.
Execution underscores regime’s determination to weed out security threats
Following the lectures about Cho’s execution, a grim mood has settled over officials at the Ministry of State Security and the border guard, the source said.
The execution of such a high-ranking official is thought to underscore the Ministry of State Security’s determination to beef up internal security and harshly combat security threats following the recent amendment of the North Korean constitution to define South Korea as a hostile state.
“The lecture emphasized the urgency of fully reviewing the safety of state secrets and measures to ensure those secrets aren’t leaked. Officials say this is the first internal probe at the ministry to be addressed in such detail since the execution of Jang Song Taek. They regard it as signaling sweeping punishment of anyone who has profited financially from selling secrets to China,” the source said.
“Officials say the incident goes to show you can’t trust your peers in state security departments because anybody could be watching you and ready to stab you in the back. They say this underscores the fact that people nowadays should watch what they say and do and keep an eye on each other.”
Amid the high level of vigilance inside the ministry following Cho’s execution, more inspections are likely to be held to test security at the ministry, the source added.
Daily NK works with a network of sources in North Korea, China, and elsewhere. For security reasons, their identities remain anonymous.
Please send any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
Read in Korean
dailynk.com · by Jeong Tae Joo · November 19, 2024
5. Ukraine Is Now a Proxy War for Asian Powers
Excerpts:
Granted, the level of support we currently see from the East Asian powers will likely be a function of how committed the United States and Russia remain in the months and years ahead. Trump’s return to the White House could result in changes on the battlefield—but not necessarily in the nature of Indo-Pacific involvement. Trump has already said he could end the war in a day but has not provided details. If he can—and both sides accept the outcome—then the proxy war ends. If he cannot and the conflict continues in some manner, so does the proxy war, but the level of commitment may change. In a situation where the United States stops supporting Ukraine but European NATO members step up, it is likely that Japan and South Korea would also continue their support; their interest in pushing back against aggressors would be unchanged. However, their support could be reduced, since some of their activities have come as a request by their U.S. ally.
It is hard to see China and North Korea reducing their involvement, given that their support could help Russia succeed and advance their strategic goal of destroying the existing order. Short of a mutually acceptable end to the war, changes in the degree of U.S. involvement under a second Trump administration will not alter the fundamental proxy war constellation: All four East Asian powers are supporting a third party to undermine their competitor’s ability to undermine their national interests.
While this indicates that the security challenges in East Asia have, in part, been exported to Europe, the more concerning element is the fact that their participation adds an element of uncertainty and potential escalation to the conflict in Ukraine. Beijing, Pyongyang, Seoul, and Tokyo are supporting their respective partners on European soil in order to wage a much broader struggle over the future of the international order. This, in turn, indicates the extent to which the war has become global—and has set a new precedent for how Asian nations compete for their interests in other parts of the world.
Ukraine Is Now a Proxy War for Asian Powers
Judging by growing East Asian involvement, Putin’s war has already gone global.
By Jeffrey W. Hornung, a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation.
Foreign Policy · by Jeffrey W. Hornung
November 18, 2024, 11:24 AM
Understanding the conflict two years on.
More on this topic
Doubts over sustained U.S. support for Ukraine long predated Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election, and they have raised concerns over Kyiv’s ability to sustain its defense against Moscow’s war. These concerns have overshadowed another important dynamic in an already complicated conflict: the increasing involvement of East Asian powers in a European war. Besides the recent arrival of at least 10,000 North Korean soldiers on the Russian side, the evolving roles of China, Japan, and South Korea raise the question of whether a widening proxy war is being fought in Ukraine. By all indications, the answer is yes: The war is setting a new precedent for Indo-Pacific nations to compete for their interests on the global stage.
A proxy war is when two countries fight each other indirectly—by supporting warring participants in a third country. Classic examples from the Cold War era include the Congo crisis in the 1960s and the Angola crisis in the 1970s, when the Soviet Union and United States each backed warring factions in a civil war with money, weapons, and sometimes troops from yet other countries but never got directly involved in combat themselves.
Doubts over sustained U.S. support for Ukraine long predated Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election, and they have raised concerns over Kyiv’s ability to sustain its defense against Moscow’s war. These concerns have overshadowed another important dynamic in an already complicated conflict: the increasing involvement of East Asian powers in a European war. Besides the recent arrival of at least 10,000 North Korean soldiers on the Russian side, the evolving roles of China, Japan, and South Korea raise the question of whether a widening proxy war is being fought in Ukraine. By all indications, the answer is yes: The war is setting a new precedent for Indo-Pacific nations to compete for their interests on the global stage.
A proxy war is when two countries fight each other indirectly—by supporting warring participants in a third country. Classic examples from the Cold War era include the Congo crisis in the 1960s and the Angola crisis in the 1970s, when the Soviet Union and United States each backed warring factions in a civil war with money, weapons, and sometimes troops from yet other countries but never got directly involved in combat themselves.
Not all proxy wars look alike or follow the standard pattern. Sometimes, an outside power’s support for one side leads that power to intervene directly. Think of the United States’ gradual involvement in the Vietnam War or the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan to prop up the embattled government there. Even as the military efforts of their proxies waned, the United States and Soviet Union maintained their participation in an attempt to prevent a victory by the other superpower’s proxy.
Russia’s war against Ukraine has all the trappings of a proxy war. The Kremlin has clearly articulated its view that Ukraine has no agency as an independent state and that the target of its invasion is the West—specifically, the United States. Members of NATO and several other Western-aligned countries, in turn, are supporting Ukraine with weapons deliveries. The West’s intention may be Ukraine’s defense, but its efforts are necessarily directed at Russia. By forcing Putin to fail in his goal of subjugating Ukraine, Western support for Ukraine undermines Russia. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin suggested as much, admitting that “we want to see Russia weakened.”
But what about East Asian states’ involvement on each side of this war? Is this a proxy war for them, too? If so, to what end?
Start with Russia’s supporters. Despite China refraining from overtly providing Russia with weapons, it has worked to ensure Moscow’s ability to continue its war. Not only has it opposed Western sanctions, but it has also used its diplomatic connections in the global south to prevent a broader condemnation of Russia. Importantly, China has stepped in to prop up the Russian economy and defense industry to ensure that Russia can withstand Western sanctions and supply its military. Russia now imports most of its battlefield goods and critical components from China; according to U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, China now supplies Russia with about 90 percent of its microelectronics imports and 70 percent of machine tool imports. According to customs data, Beijing ships more than $300 million worth of dual-use goods to Russia every month. As if to fire yet another warning in NATO’s direction, China this year participated in military exercises in Belarus, only a few miles from the Polish border.
North Korea has taken a far more direct approach. It was one of only five countries that voted against the U.N. General Assembly resolution opposing Russia’s aggression, and last week Pyongyang ratified a military alliance that pledges either country to aid the other in case of attack. North Korea has provided Russia with artillery shells and ballistic missiles to support dwindling munition stockpiles. But the most escalatory step occurred last month, when North Korea sent about 10,000 troops to Russia, some of whom are now reported to be fighting the Ukrainians in Russia’s Kursk region.
To support Ukraine, two stalwart U.S. allies have stepped in, albeit with much smaller steps: Japan and South Korea. Early on, Japan coordinated sanctions against Russia with Western partners. Tokyo also provides direct and indirect assistance to Ukraine, including nonkinetic military equipment—including vehicles, flak jackets, and reconnaissance drones—as well as some $12 billion in other aid, making Tokyo one of Kyiv’s top bilateral donors. Japan also revised its restrictions on weapons exports, enabling the transfer of Japanese-manufactured Patriot missiles to the United States, thereby helping to ensure U.S. stockpiles remain stable even as some of this equipment is sent to help Ukraine. And diplomatically, Japan has used its connections to act as a convening power to help Ukraine. During Japan’s 2023 G-7 presidency, for example, then-Prime Minister Kishida Fumio extended invitations to various countries from the global south so that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky could engage with their representatives at the group’s May summit.
While South Korea, too, has refrained from delivering weapons to Ukraine, it has provided substantial humanitarian aid and other nonlethal support, such as mine-clearing equipment, body armor, and helmets. It has also joined in economic sanctions against Moscow. And like Japan, it has replenished U.S. weapons stocks, supplying the United States with artillery shells and thereby freeing up Washington’s ability to send shells to Ukraine. Similarly, South Korea has greatly increased defense exports to Poland, part of which backfilled the latter’s deliveries to Ukraine in the early days of the war. Following the news of North Korean troops arriving in Russia, Seoul is now considering a greater level of support, floating the idea of directly supplying Kyiv with defensive and offensive weapons.
The motivations of these four East Asian actors have all the hallmarks of their being involved in a proxy war. Both Beijing and Pyongyang have an overarching strategic interest in seeing Moscow prevail. Both share Russia’s vision of a post-Western world order, in which the United States and its allies are weakened. Chinese President Xi Jinping and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un see Putin as an ally in a global struggle against the West, which makes supporting his war in Ukraine a strategic imperative.
Similar proxy war motivations hold for Tokyo and Seoul. As a status quo power, Tokyo has a strategic interest in ensuring that the existing order does not falter, including the post-World War II proscription of changing borders by force; as Kishida famously warned, “Ukraine today may be East Asia tomorrow.” Seoul—in addition to its concerns about the new military alliance between Pyongyang and Moscow—is also motivated by a need to thwart attempts to change the status quo through coercion. Echoing Kishida, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol told The Associated Press last year that “the war in Ukraine has reminded us all that a security crisis in one particular region can have a global impact.” Together, their actions to help Ukraine prevail also aim to send a message to China and North Korea that any attempt to forcibly change the status quo comes with dire consequences.
Granted, the level of support we currently see from the East Asian powers will likely be a function of how committed the United States and Russia remain in the months and years ahead. Trump’s return to the White House could result in changes on the battlefield—but not necessarily in the nature of Indo-Pacific involvement. Trump has already said he could end the war in a day but has not provided details. If he can—and both sides accept the outcome—then the proxy war ends. If he cannot and the conflict continues in some manner, so does the proxy war, but the level of commitment may change. In a situation where the United States stops supporting Ukraine but European NATO members step up, it is likely that Japan and South Korea would also continue their support; their interest in pushing back against aggressors would be unchanged. However, their support could be reduced, since some of their activities have come as a request by their U.S. ally.
It is hard to see China and North Korea reducing their involvement, given that their support could help Russia succeed and advance their strategic goal of destroying the existing order. Short of a mutually acceptable end to the war, changes in the degree of U.S. involvement under a second Trump administration will not alter the fundamental proxy war constellation: All four East Asian powers are supporting a third party to undermine their competitor’s ability to undermine their national interests.
While this indicates that the security challenges in East Asia have, in part, been exported to Europe, the more concerning element is the fact that their participation adds an element of uncertainty and potential escalation to the conflict in Ukraine. Beijing, Pyongyang, Seoul, and Tokyo are supporting their respective partners on European soil in order to wage a much broader struggle over the future of the international order. This, in turn, indicates the extent to which the war has become global—and has set a new precedent for how Asian nations compete for their interests in other parts of the world.
Foreign Policy · by Jeffrey W. Hornung
6. N. Korea warns of 'retaliatory response' over S. Korea-U.S.-Japan's summit agreement
Political warfare and blackmail diplomacy. Political warfare to attack alliances, and black diplomacy using threats, increase tensions, and provocations to gain political and economic concessions.
(LEAD) N. Korea warns of 'retaliatory response' over S. Korea-U.S.-Japan's summit agreement | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Park Boram · November 19, 2024
(ATTN: UPDATES with Seoul's reaction in last 2 paras)
SEOUL, Nov. 19 (Yonhap) -- North Korea warned Tuesday that trilateral security cooperation among South Korea, the United States and Japan would prompt more "retaliatory responses," days after the leaders of the three nations decided to establish a secretariat to bolster three-way cooperation.
The North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) carried the message in a commentary after President Yoon Suk Yeol, U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba issued a joint statement in Lima last week, announcing the establishment of the secretariat.
North Korea criticized the decision as deepening the roots of confrontation on the Korean Peninsula and in the Asia-Pacific region, claiming the U.S. attempts to "seize political and military control" through a military bloc that has evolved into a "nuclear alliance."
(From L) South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba pose for a photo on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Lima on Nov. 15, 2024. (Yonhap)
It warned that the decision would lead to the habitualization of strong retaliatory responses from North Korea.
North Korea derided the "era of trilateral partnership" touted by Seoul, Washington and Tokyo, saying it is turning into "an era of trilateral ruin." It also claimed that all three leaders who devised it at their Camp David summit in August last year have "completely lost" public support.
It claimed that one of them has already been ousted from the prime ministership, another is scheduled to step down as president soon, while the third is at risk of impeachment.
"The miserable fates of those who took the first step toward trilateral cooperation demonstrate that 'the era of trilateral cooperation' is a grim era with no future," the KCNA said.
An official at South Korea's unification ministry defended trilateral cooperation involving the three nations as an "effort to safeguard universal values, such as freedom, human rights and peace, as well as international order.
"It's a shameless attitude from North Korea, which spearheaded the destruction of universal values and international order," the official noted.
pbr@yna.co.kr
(END)
7. "No one expected to return": Former soldier reveals dark reality of NK troops in Russia
Families in north Korea will never have closure.
"No one expected to return": Former soldier reveals dark reality of NK troops in Russia - Daily NK English
"North Korea doesn’t want a single soldier coming back alive from the battlefield," a defector with experience in North Korea's military told Daily NK
By Seulkee Jang - November 19, 2024
dailynk.com · by Seulkee Jang · November 19, 2024
The Rodong Sinmun reported March 7 that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un had paid a visit the previous day to critical operational and training bases of the Korean People’s Army on the western front and toured training facilities there. The photograph depicts North Korean soldiers doing exercises. (Rodong Sinmun, News 1)
There have been multiple reports about North Korean troops in Russia suffering casualties during engagements with Ukrainian troops. Some are arguing that the North Korean troops in Russia amount to cannon fodder and that the North Korean authorities do not want them to return alive.
“There’s a possibility that soldiers currently on deployment to Russia didn’t even know where they were headed until right before they left the country,” said a North Korean defector identified as Chung (a pseudonym) in a recent interview with Daily NK. Prior to his defection, Chung was a soldier who had been sent to Russia to work at a construction site.
“When North Korean soldiers are sent to work on construction sites in Russia, their overseas missions are referred to as ‘deployments,’ not ‘assignments’ inside the North Korean military. The soldiers themselves aren’t officially informed about their place of deployment until shortly before they depart,” Chung said.
Based on his personal experience, Chung said that soldiers deployed to the war zone may have been chosen by the military, without getting any say in the matter.
Chung said that even the soldiers given work assignments in Russia are not selected from an official pool of volunteers inside the army. Rather, the military leadership generally selects decorated soldiers with model records for those assignments.
Considering that, Chung said, there is a good chance that the soldiers currently being deployed to the combat zone (and the enlisted soldiers and NCOs in particular) are required to go whether they want to or not.
“All North Korean soldiers who are deployed overseas must pledge their willingness to lay down their lives in battle. They leave with the resolution to carry out the orders of their beloved comrade and supreme commander Kim Jong Un regardless of the situation or circumstances,” Chung said.
In other words, even soldiers who are being assigned to construction work in Russia must publicly pledge before leaving the country to follow the orders of the supreme leader even if that means losing their life on the battlefield.
The North Korean military demands this pledge of all soldiers going overseas to ensure they do not disobey orders or desert their post while overseas.
Defector expects soldiers in Ukraine to get “meager compensation”
Chung predicted that when North Korean soldiers are dispatched to war zones, the North Korean authorities will give them meager compensation, without paying monthly wages or special bonuses.
Even though soldiers on work assignments in Russia do grueling labor for 10 or more hours a day, Chung said, their work is regarded as a substitute for their military service. As such, they are only paid $100 a month, an extremely sparse living allowance.
South Korea’s National Intelligence Service told a closed-door meeting of the National Assembly’s National Intelligence Committee on Oct. 29 that North Korean soldiers deployed to Russia for its invasion of Ukraine are receiving around $2,000 in monthly wages.
But Chung disputed that report. “It’s ridiculous to say that soldiers deployed to a war zone are receiving $2,000 each. There’s a huge difference between payments made to mercenaries from South Korea’s perspective and the actual payments made to people doing their military service in North Korea,” he pointed out.
According to Chung, even crack troops trained in the special forces are likely to become cannon fodder if they are actually sent to the battlefield.
“Even if we’re talking about elite special forces with the Storm Corps, all their training was done in mountainous areas, but the current fighting in Russia is taking place on wide-open plains. I doubt that even the North Korean government expects much combat proficiency from the soldiers it’s deploying to Russia,” he said.
“North Korea doesn’t want a single soldier coming back alive from the battlefield. The leadership will think that returning soldiers aren’t helpful for maintaining the regime since they may tell others the truth about what they experienced, which would stir up negativity about the regime,” Chung remarked.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy asserted that a number of North Korean troops deployed to Russia had died in combat in Kursk in a press conference following the European Political Community summit he attended in Budapest, Hungary, on Nov. 7.
Zelenskyy said that unless appropriate measures are taken, he thinks even more North Korean troops will be sent to Russia.
Daily NK works with a network of sources in North Korea, China, and elsewhere. For security reasons, their identities remain anonymous.
Please send any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
Read in Korean
dailynk.com · by Seulkee Jang · November 19, 2024
8. Abductee family group vows to go ahead with sending leaflets to N. Korea
Information must and will get through.
Abductee family group vows to go ahead with sending leaflets to N. Korea | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Hyun-soo · November 19, 2024
SOKCHO, South Korea, Nov. 19 (Yonhap) -- A group representing families of those abducted by North Korea said Tuesday it would go ahead with sending propaganda leaflets to the North.
Choi Seong-ryong, the group's head, and Park Sang-hak, the head of Fighters for a Free North Korea, a North Korean defectors' group, met at a coast guard station in Sokcho, some 151 kilometers northeast of Seoul, and discussed their plan to fly anti-Pyongyang leaflets to the North.
After meeting with coast guard officials, they renewed their willingness to send leaflets to North Korea from sea.
Officials said the coast guard plans to decide on whether to allow them to send leaflets from sea after reviewing relevant legal and safety issues.
They also said it would resume sending large balloons containing leaflets in the western border city of Paju.
They plan to launch 50,000 leaflets and newsletters of abductees' family members in Paju and Goseong County, respectively. The exact date of the action was not yet known.
North Korea has sent more than 7,000 such balloons across the border in retaliation against anti-Pyongyang propaganda leaflets sent by activists in the South.
Choi Seong-ryong (L), the head of a group representing the families of those abducted by North Korea, and Park Sang-hak, the head of Fighters for a Free North Korea, a North Korean defectors' group, elaborate on their plan to fly anti-Pyongyang leaflets to the North, in Sokcho, 151 kilometers northeast of Seoul, on Nov. 19, 2024. (Yonhap)
sookim@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Hyun-soo · November 19, 2024
9. North Korea's Kim orders "limitless" nuclear expansion, criticizes US-led alliances
Another indicator of how important are our alliances. They put fear into the Dark Quad.
North Korea's Kim orders "limitless" nuclear expansion, criticizes US-led alliances
https://www.chosun.com/english/north-korea-en/2024/11/18/5TVBEN42IJDWDGHMNUXYSXGABM/
By Min Young Bin,
Lee Jae-eun
Published 2024.11.18. 15:08
North's leader Kim Jong-un speaking at the 4th Conference of Battalion Commanders and Political Instructors of the Korean People's Army (KPA) on Nov. 15, the final day of the two-day event held in Pyongyang. / Yonhap
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has ordered the nation to bolster its nuclear capabilities “without limitation,” emphasizing that this policy is now “irreversible.” He also said Pyongyang would focus all efforts on completing war preparations.
Kim made these remarks during the 4th Conference of Battalion Commanders and Political Instructors of the Korean People’s Army on Nov. 15, according to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Nov. 18. The gathering marked the first of its kind in a decade, following the third session in 2014. The first two were held in 1953 and 2006, respectively, and were hosted by North Korea’s founding leader Kim Il Sung and former leader Kim Jong Il.
“Strengthening our nuclear force has long been an irreversible policy for us,” Kim said during his speech. “Now, the task at hand is to ensure that our nuclear force is perfectly operational, able to fulfill both its deterrence mission and secondary objectives.” He pledged to continue enhancing North Korea’s self-defense capabilities, emphasizing nuclear weapons as the core, stating this would be done “ceaselessly, without limits, and without being satisfied (with the current level).”
Kim criticized the trilateral cooperation between South Korea, the United States, and Japan as a significant threat to regional peace and stability. “The U.S.-led military alliance is expanding to include Europe and the Asia-Pacific region,” he said. “In the event of an emergency, the U.S. and allied forces could appear on the Korean Peninsula under the banner of military alliances such as NATO, rather than the United Nations.”
Kim urged North Korea’s military to gear all activities toward war preparation, stressing, “Completing war preparations is an urgent task that cannot be delayed even for a single day.” He also referred to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as the U.S. and the West staging a war against Russia through Ukraine, calling it a strategic move by Washington to gain combat experience and expand military interventions globally.
However, Kim did not mention North Korea’s deployment of troops to Russia to support Moscow’s war with Ukraine. Instead, he accused the U.S. of dragging more nations into prolonged conflicts by continuing to supply military aid to Ukraine and Israel.
10. North Korea Watchers and insight peddlers
From Professor Robertson in Seoul. He seems a little bitter.
Commentary
North Korea Watchers and insight peddlers
When the goal shifts from fostering understanding to maximizing transactions, the essence of insight is lost.
https://www.junotane.com/p/north-korea-watchers-and-insight-peddlers?utm
Nov 19, 2024
In the world of the North Korea Watcher, there is an abundance of variety. One particularly interesting group is the insight peddler - the consultancy services that seek to sell their wares. Of these, there are five broad groups who, just like itinerant peddlers of old, can be categorized according to the wares they’re selling - in this case, the level of analysis undertaken.
It’s just the news
At the most basic level, analysis involves summarizing or repeating headlines from mainstream media outlets. In the context of North Korea, this might mean echoing reports from major news agencies like Reuters or Yonhap News on events such as a missile test. For example, a report might simply state, “North Korea launched a ballistic missile into the East Sea,” without offering any additional context or interpretation.
On the positive side, these providers are useful for quick updates on breaking news, and provide reports that are easily accessible and straightforward for general audiences. On the negative side, their reports lack depth or context, and can leave the audience with unanswered questions. Inevitably, they also inherently reflect the biases and omissions contained in their mainstream media sources.
It’s news, but not like you know it
The second level expands on mainstream reporting by incorporating information from specialized sources, such as think tanks, academic journals, or niche publications focusing on North Korea. These peddlers provide deeper details. For instance, while mainstream media might report a missile launch, specialized outlets would analyze the type of missile, its range, and its technical specifications. With a degree of linguistic and cultural competence, they can offer a richer understanding of events but still avoid contextual or interpretive analysis. Essentially, their greatest strength comes in their non-mainstream sources, whether it is KCNA, South Korean Government, or U.N. reports - it adds credibility and insight by providing greater research depth.
On the positive side, they enrich understanding with technical or niche details, such as missile specifications or sanctions impacts. They expand the range of information available to readers. On the negative side, they risk amplifying biases from specialized outlets with specific editorial focuses, and still lack broader contextualization or strategic insights.
Yay! Analysis!
The third level integrates mainstream and specialized reporting with contextual knowledge, explaining the “why” behind events. Analysts might frame North Korea’s missile tests within the context of its diplomatic strategy, historical behavior, and domestic political needs. For example, an analysis could explain that missile launches often coincide with South Korea-U.S. military drills, serving as a signal of Pyongyang’s displeasure while rallying domestic support by emphasizing strength against external threats. The greater the contextual reasoning, the more they can rationalize an argument for the event at hand.
On the positive side, this offers a more nuanced understanding of North Korea’s actions and motivations and helps readers connect current events to historical patterns, such as North Korea's cycle of provocations and negotiations. However, on the negative side, this approach risks overgeneralization if contextual knowledge is incomplete and can lead to situations where authors overlook ground-level realities due to reliance on secondary sources.
On-the-ground insight
At the fourth level, analysis incorporates firsthand accounts and observations, offering a view from the ground. Given North Korea's closed-off nature, direct access is rare, but valuable insights can still be gained from defectors, diplomats, or organizations working in the region. For example, interviews with defectors could shed light on how sanctions affect ordinary North Koreans, while NGOs might report on conditions at the China-North Korea border. Similarly, on-the-ground insight regarding events inside the foreign ministries and diplomatic corps in Seoul, Tokyo or Washington can provide critical context that challenges or validates broader narratives.
On the positive side, this adds human dimensions to analysis and validates or challenges trends reported by mainstream and specialized sources. However, on the negative side, securing reliable firsthand data is difficult on tightly controlled security issues whether it is in Washington or Pyongyang - and even these on-the-ground sources may have subjective, manipulative, or incomplete perspectives.
Specialized knowledge
The fifth and most advanced level delivers highly specialized, actionable insights tailored to specific audiences. Analysts combine information from all previous levels with deep expertise in policy and implementation. For instance, a report for policymakers might analyze how North Korea’s evolving nuclear strategy impacts U.S. extended deterrence in East Asia, offering recommendations for future negotiations. Alternatively, a tailored analysis for humanitarian organizations might evaluate how sanctions exemptions for aid affect food distribution within the country.
On the positive side, this provides practical, customized insights, such as strategies for engaging North Korea in diplomatic talks or mitigating humanitarian crises and offers detailed guidance for navigating complex policy or security challenges. They also often adhere to intelligence and diplomatic community analytical best practice, using standardized formats, structures and wording common to assesment and intelligence products. On the negative side, it requires significant expertise and resources, making it less accessible to general audiences, and complexity may limit broader understanding outside specialist circles. Further, assesment and intelligence products are boring. They are specifically designed to avoid the sensationalist crap that that really sells the North Korea merchandise, making them dry reading for all but a specialist audience.
The insight peddler who sells more is in sales, not insight
Lastly, it’s important to recognize that the insight peddler who prioritizes volume over value is fundamentally a salesperson, not a true purveyor of insight. Insight demands depth, rigor, and the courage to challenge assumptions, often requiring a tailored approach. Selling in quantity dilutes quality, reducing ideas to consumable soundbites aimed at appeasing rather than enlightening. True insight disrupts, provokes thought, and provides clarity amidst complexity—outcomes rarely achieved through mass appeal. All companies have an agenda - a profit agenda. When this profit agenda dilutes and weakens analysis, they become all but useless. When the goal shifts from fostering understanding to maximizing transactions, the essence of insight is lost. The peddler becomes a merchant, trading profundity for popularity, driven by metrics of sales rather than meaningful impact.
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11. Seoul offers to play key role in possible talks between Washington, Pyongyang
We need to be in lockstep when dealing with north Korea. Our alliance gives us greater strength.
Seoul offers to play key role in possible talks between Washington, Pyongyang
The Korea Times · by 2024-11-18 15:58 | Defense · November 18, 2024
Vice Unification Minister Kim Soo-kyung speaks during a press conference at Government Complex Seoul, Monday. Yonhap
South Korea to pursue denuclearization of North Korea with Trump administration: unification ministry
By Kwak Yeon-soo
South Korea believes the chances of Pyongyang and Washington resuming dialogue without Seoul’s involvement under a second Trump administration are low, given the strengthened South Korea-U.S. alliance and the significant changes in the geopolitical landscape since Donald Trump’s first presidency, the government said, Monday.
The comment from the Ministry of Unification came amid speculation that Trump may seek another round of bilateral talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, similar to those during his first presidency. There are also suggestions that, this time, the Yoon Suk Yeol government, which has taken a tougher stance against the Kim regime, could be sidelined.
However, the ministry said such a situation is unlikely to occur, emphasizing that South Korea will play a leading role in any potential resumption of dialogue.
“It will be difficult for both the U.S. and North Korea to resume dialogue without South Korea. Since the South Korea-U.S. alliance is stronger than ever, I believe the unification ministry will not be overlooked,” a senior ministry official said on condition of anonymity.
“The second Trump administration would be different from the first, given the geopolitical challenges, including North Korea’s troop deployment to Russia. North Korea’s ‘two hostile states’ policy, the abolishment of agencies handling inter-Korean affairs, and ongoing provocations all suggest that the role of the unification ministry is crucial,” the official added.
Regarding Kim’s statement on Monday calling for the unrestrained bolstering of nuclear forces and completing war preparations, the official said the remarks are aimed at fueling hostility toward South Korea and strengthening internal military morale, as rumors have been circulating in the North about troop deployments to the Ukraine war.
US extended deterrence to remain strong under Trump: Seoul official
The ministry said while unification is a national mission, it cannot be achieved independently and requires cooperation from the international community.
“The government will work closely with the incoming U.S. administration to bring change and pursue the denuclearization of North Korea. We will continue to move toward the goal of unification by accelerating the implementation of the Aug. 15 Unification Doctrine,” Vice Unification Minister Kim Soo-kyung said during a press conference at Government Complex Seoul.
The doctrine, announced by Yoon, includes initiatives to pursue a free, unified Korean Peninsula.
“The process of persuading the international community of the legitimacy of unification is also important,” Kim added.
The ministry said it is reviewing measures to reclaim loans granted to North Korea for the construction of inter-Korean roads and rail lines after the North destroyed them in October.
On Oct. 15, North Korea destroyed the northern sections of two inter-Korean roads — the Gyeongui Road in the western border region and the Donghae Road along the east coast — in an apparent effort to sever all ties with South Korea and formalize a hostile, two-state system on the Korean Peninsula.
“We will seek the collection of loans extended to North Korea, although there are concerns the country may refuse to repay them following its detonation of inter-Korean roads and rail lines,” the ministry official said.
From 2002 to 2008, South Korea provided 180 billion won ($129 million) in loans to North Korea for the construction of roads and railways along the two inter-Korean routes.
The ministry will also seek to establish a North Korea freedom and human rights fund to actively support nongovernmental efforts that promote freedom and human rights in the North. The fund is intended to officially support private organizations in openly discussing North Korea's human rights issues. The government also vowed to launch the North Korean Human Rights Foundation. The foundation has remained inactive for eight years due to the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea blocking the nomination process for the leadership position.
The Korea Times · by 2024-11-18 15:58 | Defense · November 18, 2024
12. Rights activists tell NK soldiers fighting Ukraine to 'stand on the side of justice'
Ukraine is a laboratory for modern psychological warfare. We should be exploiting this opportunity. The north Korean diaspora certainly is.
Rights activists tell NK soldiers fighting Ukraine to 'stand on the side of justice'
The Korea Times · by 2024-11-14 16:42 | North Korea · November 19, 2024
This image from a video posted Oct. 18 on X by Ukraine’s Center for Strategic Communication and Information Security shows what the center claims are North Korean soldiers deployed to Russia. Human rights activists on Tuesday released an open letter calling for North Korean troops in Russia to stop helping the Kremlin’s “unjustifiable” war efforts against Ukraine amid reports that some of them have already been killed.
7 organizations release open letter amid rising tensions in battlefield
By Jung Min-ho
Human rights activists released an open letter, Tuesday, calling for North Korean troops in Russia to stop helping the Kremlin’s “unjustifiable” war efforts against Ukraine amid reports that some of them have already been killed.
Seven rights organizations based in South Korea — Justice for North Korea, Korean War POW Family Association, Mulmangcho, No Chain, Stepping Stones, THINK and Transitional Justice Working Group (TJWG) ― said that the war was initiated by Russian invaders and that North Koreans have no reason to die for that unjust cause.
“So why are you pointing your guns at the innocent Ukrainian people who are fighting to defend their fatherland and nation from foreign domination? Why are you rushing into battles that even the Russian people are avoiding under the command of Russian officers to give up your lives for nothing?” the groups said in the letter.
“It is still not too late. Lay down your weapons and stand on the side of justice. Exercise your own judgment in choosing whether to become the lonely spirits without descendants to look after your grave far away from home in alien mountains and waters for Russia’s unjustifiable war of aggression," it said.
EXCLUSIVE'Don't die for Putin': Rights groups to send message to NK soldiers
The release followed the U.S. decision to lift the ban on Ukraine using long-range missiles to fire into Russian territory. U.S. officials reportedly said the weapons would be used against Russian and North Korean troops deployed against Ukrainian forces in Russia’s Kursk region — and was intended to send a message to Pyongyang.
In this image taken from a video released by the Russian defense ministry on Nov. 7, Russian soldiers fight with Ukrainian armed forces in the Sudzhansky district of the Kursk region of Russia. AP-Yonhap
“(North Korean) Comrades, have you thought about why you are in Russia’s border region of Kursk, thousands of kilometers away from (your) fatherland, wearing the military uniforms of the Russian forces, commanded by Russian officers and being ordered to charge against the Ukrainian forces? … But what harm has the Ukrainian people ever done to the Korean people?” the groups asked in the letter.
They drew comparisons with the people in Ukraine and those in North Korea.
“The Ukrainian people, like the Korean people, have groaned under foreign domination for centuries, including the Russian empire, and finally became an independent state with the dissolution of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics in 1991,” they said. “However, Russian President Vladimir Putin, who was not happy with the independent line pursued by Ukraine which regained independence with great difficulty, first occupied the Crimean Peninsula by force and coaxed the separatists in the eastern region to start a civil war in 2014 and then launched a full-scale invasion to swallow up the whole of Ukraine in February 2022.”
Shin Hee-seok, a TJWG representative who was behind the effort to draft the message, told The Korea Times that the activists believe their message will be able to reach the North Koreans on the battlefield, based on some media reports that the soldiers have “unrestricted access to the internet.”
In cooperation with North Korean defectors and rights activists in Ukraine, the groups will try their best to spread the message on the battlefield and beyond in the coming weeks, Shin added.
More than 10,000 North Korean troops arrived in Russia last month and were confirmed by South Korea’s intelligence agency to have been participating in combat operations alongside Russian forces. Citing a senior government official in Ukraine, Kyodo News, a Japanese news agency, reported that North Korean soldiers have been killed in some areas.
The Korea Times · by 2024-11-14 16:42 | North Korea · November 19, 2024
13. Editorial: China's inaction on N. Korean provocations risks its own security
But no one should be under the impression that China will assist South Korea or the US in trying to stem north Korean provocations.
But why do we call the nKPA deployment to Russia a "provocation?" It is a military operation designed to support Putin and make money for the regime. Is it really intended as aprovication which we normally assume is intended to send a message to the ROK or the US or the alliance.
Excerpt:
"...a greater role in curbing North Korea’s provocations, such as troop deployments to Russia."
Editorial: China's inaction on N. Korean provocations risks its own security
https://www.chosun.com/english/opinion-en/2024/11/19/4LUVEOGL75C6FAB7EYYDRIBPZA/
By The Chosunilbo
Published 2024.11.19. 09:09
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol (left) shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Lima, Peru, on Nov. 15, 2024. /News1
At the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Peru on Nov. 16, there were increasing calls for China to take on a greater role in curbing North Korea’s provocations, such as troop deployments to Russia. South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol urged China to play a “constructive role,” to which Chinese President Xi Jinping responded that China does not wish for tensions on the Korean Peninsula and would cooperate with Yoon in addressing the issue. U.S. President Joe Biden stressed that China should use its influence to prevent further North Korean troop deployments, warning that deepening North Korea-Russia ties could heighten provocations. Xi reiterated that China would not tolerate threats to its strategic security and core interests.
Two years ago, on the sidelines of the APEC summit, Xi expressed hope that South Korea would actively improve inter-Korean relations while overlooking North Korea’s nuclear and missile provocations raised by President Yoon. When Biden urged China to pressure North Korea against nuclear tests, Xi suggested addressing North Korea’s “legitimate concerns,” implying sanctions relief. Despite North Korean provocations, China has continued to shield Pyongyang while expanding economic ties with Russia following the Ukraine invasion. As North Korea-Russia military cooperation now threatens China’s own security, Beijing bears significant responsibility for this situation.
Following North Korea’s sixth nuclear test and ballistic missile (ICBM) launch in 2017, China supported a UN resolution to impose automatic sanctions, including restricting oil imports if further tests occurred. It also agreed to expel North Korean workers. Over 96% of North Korea’s trade depends on China, including key materials for its nuclear and missile programs. Money laundering and cryptocurrency cash-outs to fund North Korean weapons development largely occur in China, with wages of tens of thousands of North Korean workers in China serving as a major income source for Kim Jong-un. If China had fully enforced international sanctions, much of North Korea’s provocations could have been curbed.
China has long used North Korea to counter U.S. influence but does not want tensions on the Korean Peninsula to escalate beyond control. However, the North Korea-Russia alliance, with North Korean troops deployed to Ukraine, directly undermines China’s core interests. If China wishes to address this, it only needs to enforce the UN sanctions it has already agreed to.
14. Would North Korea Really Send 100,000 Troops to Fight in Ukraine?
Excerpts:
This raises the question of whether China and Iran would offer more assistance to Russia to forge a decisive victory. Iran has sent a substantial supply of unmanned combat systems to Moscow. The European Union also fears that China may be selling drones to Russia as well.
This Axis of Evil 2.0 is thus unsettling and more bad news for the international community. The longer the war goes on, the greater the chance that Russia will marshal its friends to make a wall of resistance against the United States and its European allies.
Even if North Korea decides not to actually send the 100,000 troops to Russia, Putin and Kim’s alliance is problematic. It gives Kim confidence that he is a global leader with whom to be reckoned. It gives Putin a shot in the arm to take back lands in Kursk, and it makes the United States fear that many countries are against its policies of assistance to Ukraine.
Would North Korea Really Send 100,000 Troops to Fight in Ukraine?
nationalsecurityjournal.org · by Brent M. Eastwood · November 18, 2024
Published
North Korean ICBM. Image Credit: KCNA/North Korean State Media.
Could North Korea Beef Up Russia with Another 100,000 Troops?: You may have seen photos of Russia’s Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un grinning profusely while shaking hands during the announcement of a new joint defense pact.
As a result, Kim has already sent at least 10,000 North Korean troops to Russia who have deployed to the Kursk region of western Russia for a counter-offensive against Ukrainian forces there.
But the 10,000 soldiers could be a drop in the bucket. One report from the G20 group of nations claims that Kim might have plans to send a whopping 100,000 of his troops to Russia.
What happens if this comes to pass? How could such a move change the outcome of the Ukraine war?
Russia Has More Manpower
Russia has an estimated 470,000 soldiers fighting against Ukraine. One hundred thousand more North Koreans would beef up his forces by nearly 20 percent, which could affect the outcome of the fighting as Ukraine’s forces are already outnumbered.
Ukraine has lost 80,000 troops dead and 400,000 wounded and has only 330,000 personnel at the front. A flood of North Koreans could tip the balance of the war in Russia’s favor.
A Match Made in Hell
The new Axis of Evil between Russia and North Korea had already resulted in Pyongyang providing millions of howitzer shells to Moscow. In return for the 10,000 troops, North Korea will obtain hard currency from wages paid by Russia to the recruits. Kim Jong Un will also likely receive intercontinental ballistic missile technology from the Russians. This deal is a master stroke by Kim, who has played his hand well during the war as he also continues to raise the temperature against South Korea on the peninsula.
Kim will likely send Russia his troops in tranches of about 10,000 each, but if the G20 assessment is correct, he could choose to send a massive complement of 100,000 troops at once.
North Korea Has a Huge Army
North Korea is estimated to have around 1.3 million active troops and 560,000 in reserve. However, Kim’s army has no combat experience, and many of his forces are badly trained and sparsely equipped. The troops deploying to Russia are seen as elite special operations troops who are happy to fight with Putin’s forces.
While G20 and NATO members have expressed their disdain for the North Korean reinforcements, this is not likely to change the behavior of Kim and Putin. Ukraine and the United States have escalated the situation as well. In a shift in policy, the United States is now allowing Ukraine to fire long-range missiles called ATACMS into Russia. The ATACMS has a range of 190 miles and is expected to deploy against the Russian counter-offensive in Kursk. The missiles will target North Korean soldiers, making this war a proxy fight between the United States and its allies and the new Axis of Evil.
Putin is likely thrilled with the North Korean alliance. He doesn’t have to give much to Pyongyang in exchange for the reinforcements. He has forged an anti-Western coalition that includes China and Iran to challenge the global order. If he decides to enter peace negotiations, he could take back territory in Kursk and strengthen Russia’s position. He also signals the Russian people that winning the war is within reach.
This Will Be a Greater Challenge for Trump
These developments make the situation with Ukraine and Russia more difficult for the incoming Donald Trump administration. Trump has promised to end the war in Ukraine and will likely find it more challenging to get both sides to agree to cease fire talks. Ukraine can say that the North Korean deployment means it must fight on and the United States decision to allow long-range strikes sends a message to the Kremlin that the Americans are not serious about ending the war.
Could China and Iran Help Russia Even More?
This raises the question of whether China and Iran would offer more assistance to Russia to forge a decisive victory. Iran has sent a substantial supply of unmanned combat systems to Moscow. The European Union also fears that China may be selling drones to Russia as well.
This Axis of Evil 2.0 is thus unsettling and more bad news for the international community. The longer the war goes on, the greater the chance that Russia will marshal its friends to make a wall of resistance against the United States and its European allies.
Even if North Korea decides not to actually send the 100,000 troops to Russia, Putin and Kim’s alliance is problematic. It gives Kim confidence that he is a global leader with whom to be reckoned. It gives Putin a shot in the arm to take back lands in Kursk, and it makes the United States fear that many countries are against its policies of assistance to Ukraine.
About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood
Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare, plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.
In this article:
Written By Brent M. Eastwood
Dr. Brent M. Eastwood is the author of Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare. He is an Emerging Threats expert and former U.S. Army Infantry officer. You can follow him on Twitter @BMEastwood. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science and Foreign Policy/ International Relations.
nationalsecurityjournal.org · by Brent M. Eastwood · November 18, 2024
15. N. Korea's Kim urges extensive promotion of relations with Russia: KCNA
An alliance based on fear, weakness, desperation, and envy.
(LEAD) N. Korea's Kim urges extensive promotion of relations with Russia: KCNA | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Park Boram · November 19, 2024
(ATTN: UPDATES with more details in last 5 paras; ADDS photo)
SEOUL, Nov. 19 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has met with Russia's visiting natural resources minister and called for "more extensive and diversified" promotion of cooperative relations between their countries, state media reported Tuesday.
The previous day, Kim met with Russian Minister of Natural Resources and Ecology Alexander Kozlov, who led a government delegation to North Korea for the 11th meeting of the countries' intergovernmental committee for cooperation in trade, economy, science and technology, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported.
During the meeting, Kim appreciated the bilateral solidarity and cooperation that have been closer and deepened in different fields since the conclusion of a new treaty between the countries, the KCNA said.
"It is necessary to mutually and powerfully propel the co-prosperity and development of the two countries by further promoting the intergovernmental trade, economic, scientific and technological exchange and cooperation in a more extensive and diversified way," Kim said.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (R) shakes hands with Russian Minister of Natural Resources and Ecology Alexander Kozlov, in this photo published by the Korean Central News Agency on Nov. 19, 2024. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
He noted their countries' friendly and cooperative relations have reached "a new strategic level."
Since the delegation led by Kozlov arrived in Pyongyang on Sunday, working-level discussions have been under way in areas related to the intergovernmental cooperation committee for trade, economy, science and technology.
North Korea and Russia have been bolstering military and other cooperation since Kim and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a new partnership treaty in June in Pyongyang that includes a mutual defense clause.
Photos, released by the KCNA, showed Kim receiving and later seeing off Kozlov outside the Workers' Party of Korea's Central Committee building, where the meeting took place, possibly as a gesture of cordiality.
An official at South Korea's unification ministry said the gesture appears to demonstrate Kim's "expectations for bilateral economic exchanges" and to "show off the North's closeness" with Russia.
Kim's personal welcome may also be aimed at securing sufficient rewards in economic fields for North Korea's deployment of troops to Russia to support its war against Ukraine, according to a source.
Separately, the KCNA reported that a delegation from Russia's Military Academy of the Armed Forces' General Staff arrived in Pyongyang the previous day.
The visit by the delegation, led by the academy's President Vladimir Zarudnitski, suggests that North Korea-Russia exchanges are growing more frequent.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (R) and Russian Minister of Natural Resources and Ecology Alexander Kozlov pose for a photo, in this photo published by the Korean Central News Agency on Nov. 19, 2024. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
pbr@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Park Boram · November 19, 2024
16. Yoon decries N. Korea-Russia military cooperation at G20 summit
It is the success of the ROK/US alliance that may be causing the nK-Russia alliance.
The irony may be that some in South Korea want nuclear weapons to compete with the north. On the other hand, perhaps north Korea wants an alliance with Russia to compete with the South.
Yoon decries N. Korea-Russia military cooperation at G20 summit | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Eun-jung · November 19, 2024
By Kim Eun-jung
RIO DE JANEIRO, Nov. 18 (Yonhap) -- President Yoon Suk Yeol strongly condemned the deepening military cooperation between North Korea and Russia at the Group of 20 (G20) summit in Brazil on Monday, Yoon's office said.
Yoon used the G20 sessions to urge Pyongyang and Moscow to immediately cease their "illegal" military cooperation and called for international unity to issue a stern warning against such moves, Principal Deputy National Security Adviser Kim Tae-hyo said.
The condemnation by Yoon came shortly after Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who attended the G20 session on behalf of President Vladimir Putin, made remarks.
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese joined Yoon in criticizing North Korea's involvement in Russia's war against Ukraine, expressing concerns over its broader implications for global security, a senior presidential official said.
President Yoon Suk Yeol (C) attends a session of the Group of 20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on Nov. 18, 2024. (Yonhap)
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en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Eun-jung · November 19, 2024
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
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