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Quotes of the Day:
“We must find the time to stop and thank the people who make a difference in our lives.”
- John F. Kennedy
"What I love about Thanksgiving is that it's purely about getting together with friends or family and enjoying food. It's really for everybody, and it doesn't matter where you're from."
- Daniel Humm
“Thanksgiving Day is a jewel, to set in the hearts of honest men; but be careful that you do not take the day, and leave out the gratitude.”
- E.P. Powell
1. Tim Peters, Seoul-based American pastor, works to aid defectors from North Korean regime
2. S. Korea, Britain sign ‘Downing Street Accord,’ raise security, economic ties to highest level
3. N Korea scraps military deal with South, vows to deploy weapons to border
4. Defense chief says partial suspension of 2018 military agreement ‘minimum defensive measure’
5. N. Korea vows to restore all military measures halted under inter-Korean military accord
6. North Korea, Defying Warnings, Launches a Spy Satellite, Posing a Dilemma for Seoul and Washington
7. North Korea claims to have put spy satellite into orbit. Analysts say that could make its military stronger
8. New North Korean try at launching military satellite rattles a tense region
9. NIS says Russia's help was behind N. Korea's successful satellite launch
10. NK likely to restore guard posts at DMZ after ditching military agreement
11. Fighting fire with fire (north and South Korea)
12. Seoul-Warsaw axis
13. IAEA chief notes 'strong' water release from N. Korea's Yongbyon nuclear reactor
14. N Korea sends rocket data to Russia for advice: spy agency
15. Along the Koreas’ Dangerous Border, the Guardrails Are Now Down
16. China Ignores North Korea’s Provocations at Its Own Risk
17. S Korea and Boeing to counter N Korea's drone threat
1. Tim Peters, Seoul-based American pastor, works to aid defectors from North Korean regime
I am so happy to see our great friend Tim Peters and his work profiled here but I do worry about his safety. He and his wife are great Americans and great humanitarians. Tim is also a master of "unconventional warfare" with Chirstian characteristics. His underground railroad has long been one of the most successful escape routes for Koreans from the north even (and especially) during COVID. If I could authorize an honorary Green Beret for Tim I would give him one. We can learn so much from him on how to conduct effective clandestine operations in a denied area and make effective use of proxies.
Tim has shown us the unconventional warfare potential in north Korea and his ability to effectively employ proxies and conduct clandestine operations in multiple denied areas. He has done more UW like work for decades and spent more time in denied areas than almost any Green Beret
Tim Peters, Seoul-based American pastor, works to aid defectors from North Korean regime
Tim Peters runs Korean 'underground railway,' deploys seeds to underground churches
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Tim Peters, Seoul-based American pastor, works to aid defectors from North Korean regime - Washington Times
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Tim Peters runs Korean ‘underground railway,’ deploys seeds to underground churches
Tim Peters holds up a sachet of fertilizer-dipped seeds destined to be sent, covertly, to the “kitchen gardens” of underground churches inside North Korea. Photo: Andrew Salmon/The Washington Times Tim Peters holds up a sachet … more >
By Andrew Salmon - The Washington Times - Wednesday, November 22, 2023
SEOUL, South Korea — At a recent meeting of the “Mapo Wine Club,” an invitation-only group of retired South Korean and U.S. officers and policy wonks, raucous conversation assaulted the ear and a bouquet of grilled pork infiltrated the nose.
But the back room of a Seoul BBQ restaurant suddenly grew quiet as a man at the end of the table answered his cellphone, speaking briefly, quietly, intently. Ending the call, he told the gathering simply, “They’re out.”
The room exploded into cheers.
“They” are a family of North Korean defectors who had reached sanctuary. The man with the phone was Tim Peters, a Seoul-based American pastor who helps defectors from the poverty and oppression of the regime of Kim Jong-un escape to safety and freedom in South Korea. For many, it’s the Korean peninsula equivalent of the fabled “Underground Railroad” that transported American slaves to freedom in the north in the decades before the Civil War.
In a land of megachurches and politically-affiliated clergy, Mr. Peters’ Seoul church, “Catacombs,” stands out for its modesty. Named after the hiding places used by persecuted Christians under the Roman Empire, the church operates out of a converted art gallery in a courtyard surrounded by towering high-rise buildings.
It’s tiny, offering room for perhaps 12 worshippers. The pastor, a 73-year-old Michigan native and non-denominational evangelical, does not wear a clerical collar and calls himself a Christian activist. Two objects make tangible the nature of that activism.
The first is an Asian map. A route from the North Korean border, running through China and into Southeast Asia, is marked out on it — the underground railroad to freedom for defectors.
The other object is a stack of plastic sachets containing seeds: buckwheat, snow pea, spinach, cabbage, pumpkin and corn. Dipped in fertilizer to encourage growth in degraded soil, the seeds are smuggled into North Korea’s undercover churches for planting in a country where malnourishment rates remain high and the food production system perenially unreliable.
Mr. Peters does not help defectors flee directly south from Mr. Kim‘s totalitarian state. Instead, he works networks to get defectors to Seoul after they have crossed North Korea’s more accessible border with China. In 23 years, he says, he has helped around 2,000 make the roundabout passage to freedom.
North Korea’s direct route to South Korea — the fortified DMZ — is near-impenetrable. And now activists say the trans-China routes are increasingly constricted as well.
“The Chinese got wise to the Mongolian land route,” Mr. Peters said in an interview. “They built layers of fences, increased guards, notified residents to report anyone coming through. It is sparsely populated, so it is difficult to hide.”
A handful of those daring to flee North Korea escape via Russia.
“That is a rare bird, but sometimes workers on government labor brigades decide that they are going to defect,” Mr. Peters said. “It has been possible on a handful of occasions to bring them into the South Korean consulate in Vladivostok.”
Currently, the underground railway’s main line winds from northeastern China to southwestern Yunnan province and into Southeast Asia. A key route is through Laos, over the Mekong River, and into democratic Thailand.
It’s a journey that bristles with risk.
Inside China’s high-tech surveillance state, defectors lack official documentation. Many labor, sometimes as slaves, in farms, factories and businesses. Unknown numbers of females have been trafficked. Anyone captured faces repatriation to North Korea.
Meeting the “desperate needs” of these unfortunates, Mr Peters says, “is a demonstration of Christian love.”
A Christian in action
Mr. Peters converted to evangelical Christianity at college and undertook missionary work in Latin America before arriving in South Korea as “a wild-eyed convert” handing out Biblical tracts in 1975.
He traveled, returned to the U.S., settled, taught, married and had five children. Then, in 1994, Japan’s Kobe earthquake rekindled his interest in missionary activity — albeit with a focus on practical relief work, not evangelism.
In 1996, terrible rumors from North Korea — of a ruinous famine, mass starvation, bodies littering streets, even cannibalism — drew him back to Seoul.
He focused on nutrition supply. “Billy Graham said, ‘You can’t preach the Gospel to someone on an empty stomach,’” he recalled.
Suspicious of Pyongyang’s Red Cross, he worked with contacts in global media and in Cambodia, which had close relations with North Korea. He began dispatching relief supplies, and founded the “Ton a Month Club,” now known as Helping Hands Korea, to raise funds and buy goods.
Region-wide travels expanded his contacts. In 2000, after the North Korean famine had eased, he adopted a new role — extracting defectors.
Informants in safe houses and churches run by ethnic Koreans in northeast China send “SOS signals” about defectors’ presence. Then, Mr. Peters’ network swings into action. The network includes “brokers” — professional people smugglers — as well as daring South Koreans Christians and Korean-Chinese supporters.
“It’s miraculous how it’s working,” Mr. Peters said. “It is an indication that God is interested and is using all kinds of characters to make these kinds of freedoms happen.”
Currently, he says, brokers charge between $10,000 and $15,000 to extract one North Korean from China to Thailand, but he says his organization operates at a lower cost. His main benefactors are Scandinavians, though Japanese Christians also give generously.
Mr. Peters’ focus is fundraising and logistics. But — unusually for a Caucasian in this country — he has operated the railroad itself.
Motivated by tragedy
A 2001 tragedy steeled his resolve. That year, he met defectors sheltering in a Chinese church. Among them was Yoo Chul-min, 10, who said he was hoping to meet his father, who had already defected, if he reached Seoul.
Mr. Peters remembered seeing the boy, in a red baseball cap (“though he did not know what baseball was”), depart on a train headed to the Mongolian border.
Weeks later, back in Seoul, Mr. Peters got a call. Chul-min, he heard, was dead. The group had got lost in the Gobi; Chul-min, long weakened by malnutrition, had perished in the desert.
“It hit me like a thunderbolt: This innocent little guy was a victim of circumstance,” he recalled. “That set in steel this determination that these people really do need help.”
A 2008 South Korean film, “Crossing” was made based on the incident. The filmmakers did not consult Chul-min’s distraught father, Yoo Sang-joon, who never watched the film.
Mr. Yoo later joined the work of extracting defectors and was twice arrested in China. Mr. Peters, too, has had some close calls with China‘s security apparatus.
In 2010, detained by police suspicious of his presence near the North Korean border, he was saved by the humanity of the station chief, a Chinese-Korean.
“When I told him, ‘Every day I pray for those on the other side of the border,’ he said, ‘Thank you,’” Mr. Peters recalled. He was released without charge.
On another China trip, he learned that a contact who approached him was a North Korean agent trying to infiltrate his organization. “That could have developed into a nasty situation,” he said.
In 2013, in Vietnam, he reconnoitered the Danish embassy and distracted staffers as nine defectors, posing as South Korean tourists, entered and claimed asylum. A South Korean colleague was briefly jailed by Vietnamese authorities for his role in the episode.
The COVID-19 pandemic that disrupted the world starting in late 2019 in China also brought new challenges and headaches for Mr. Peters and his colleagues.
“Some of our escape groups were coming into contact with checkpoints in China doing health checks,” he said. “Something big was afoot and was interfering with our ordinary operations. … They had to take work-around routes.”
In 2020, North Korea locked its borders in its bid to keep the deadly virus out. For defectors in China, the year was terrifying.
“There were health inspectors at the doors of the factories or restaurants where they were working, any hiding place was like an ant colony being overturned,” he said. “We were receiving lots of desperate SOS calls.”
Even so, extractions accelerated. In 2020, he and partners helped 203 persons; his previous highest annual total had been 156 in 2019. “I consider that miraculous,” he said.
Seeds of hope
Mr. Peters is deliberately vague about another aspect of his operation — the covert smuggling of seed sachets to believers inside North Korea. His contacts are undercover North Korean pastors with Chinese links.
It took him 14 years to find an entry point. Of his contacts’ methodologies, he said: “I am not privy to all of it and I don’t want to be, but it is well established in a way that I am satisfied.”
Beyond Pyongyang’s “Potemkin churches,” Mr. Peters estimates some 150,000 to 300,000 Christians secretly worship in North Korea.
Given Pyongyang’s harsh limitations on freedom of worship, expression, association and movement, he is angry with the liberal Seoul governments that engaged the Kim regime over the decades while ignoring their human rights abuses. He praises the government of current conservative President Yoon Suk-yeol for taking a tougher stand with Pyongyang.
“It drove me crazy that they ignored this human rights catastrophe” across the border in North Korea, he said. “I am happy that the current administration is making clear statements about North Korean rights violations.”
With hundreds of North Koreans believed to have recently been forcibly repatriated from China to North Korea after the latter reopened its borders, he rues the current state of relations between Beijing and Seoul and Washington.
“Because of geopolitical headwinds, travel to China by South Koreans is strictly controlled and China is a staging area for us,” he said. “This situation complicates the linkages.”
But he is uninterested in politics — or the glitzy approaches to Christianity taken by some high-profile South Korean and U.S. pastors.
“In so many cases, it seems the size, location and beauty of your sanctuary are the major priorities,” he said, “but our focus is on the suffering brothers and sisters just 35 miles north of here. My reading of the Bible is that we are to care for the widows and the orphans. That’s pure religion.”
• Andrew Salmon can be reached at asalmon@washingtontimes.com.
Copyright © 2023 The Washington Times, LLC. Click here for reprint permission.
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2.S. Korea, Britain sign ‘Downing Street Accord,’ raise security, economic ties to highest level
I have pasted the entire text of the Downing Street Accord following this article below.
I have to highlight a key element of the accord on page 2. The UK is also committed to supporting a free and unified Korea.
We commit to strengthening cooperation aimed at raising awareness of violations and abuses of human rights, and convincing the DPRK to respect and observe human rights. We support a unified Korean Peninsula that is free and at peace.
S. Korea, Britain sign ‘Downing Street Accord,’ raise security, economic ties to highest level
en.yna.co.kr
S. Korea, Britain sign ‘Downing Street Accord,’ raise security, economic ties to highest level | Yonhap News Agency
Lee Haye-ah
Diplomacy 02:23 November 23, 2023
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By Lee Haye-ah
LONDON, Nov. 22 (Yonhap) — South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak signed the “Downing Street Accord” on Wednesday, raising the two countries’ security and economic ties to the highest level as they vowed to jointly confront North Korea’s nuclear threat, strengthen supply chains and ensure a sustainable future.
The accord was signed following a summit between the two leaders at the prime minister’s office in London, the address of which — 10 Downing Street — inspired its name.
The agreement called for elevating bilateral ties to a “global strategic partnership” from the current “broad and creative partnership” established in 2013, as the two countries celebrated the 140th anniversary of diplomatic relations with Yoon’s four-day state visit to London.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol (L) and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak shake hands during their summit at 10 Downing Street in London on Nov. 22, 2023. (Yonhap)
“Relations between the Republic of Korea (ROK) and the United Kingdom (UK) are at their closest since they were established,” the accord said. “Reflecting the next phase of the partnership between our two nations, the ROK and the UK are today signing a new Downing Street Accord to strengthen and deepen our collaboration across security and defense, science and technology, prosperity and trade and energy security.”
In security and defense, the two countries agreed to establish a “two plus two” foreign and defense ministerial meeting to better address regional and global challenges, work to sign a memorandum of understanding (MOU) on developing a comprehensive institutional framework for deeper defense cooperation, and increase interoperability between their armed forces through further bilateral exercises.
In addition, the accord called for conducting joint patrols to enforce international sanctions against North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs, and establishing a Strategic Cyber Partnership to better counter and deter cyber threats.
“We condemn the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK)’s unlawful nuclear and missile development that poses a serious threat to international peace and security,” the document read, referring to North Korea by its formal name. “The DPRK must abandon all its nuclear weapons, any other weapons of mass destruction, ballistic missile programs and existing nuclear programs, in a complete, verifiable and irreversible manner.”
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol delivers an address to members of both Houses of Parliament and other guests at the Palace of Westminster in London on Nov. 21, 2023. (Yonhap)
The two countries also stated their opposition to “all forms of arms transfer and related military cooperation” between North Korea and Russia, while vowing to strengthen cooperation to raise awareness of human rights abuses in the North.
In science, technology and trade, the accord outlined several new partnerships and MOUs established between the two countries, including in the digital sector, on semiconductor cooperation and on space cooperation.
It also noted their agreement to deepen collaboration on the responsible military use of artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies, and to launch negotiations to upgrade their bilateral free trade agreement in a way that reflects the importance of supply chain resilience, digital economy, and energy cooperation, among other things.
Also included was a commitment to establishing a bilateral Supply Chains Dialogue by the end of the year to promote resilience of critical supply chains, including for materials, parts and equipment for cutting-edge technologies, essential medical products, energy, and critical mineral resources.
The final section of the accord focused on ways the two countries will work together to ensure a sustainable future, with key measures including the signing of a South Korea-U.K. Clean Energy Partnership to share expertise and collaborate on the deployment of clean energies, such as offshore wind and civil nuclear, in both countries and in third countries.
The two countries also agreed to establish a Critical Minerals Joint Working Group to work toward establishing an MOU on enhancing research and innovation collaboration, and encouraging partnerships between companies, industrial bodies and academic institutions.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol (R) and King Charles III riding in a horse-drawn carriage arrive at Buckingham Palace after they attended a welcome ceremony for the South Korean leader at Horse Guards Parade in London on Nov. 21, 2023, during his state visit to Britain to celebrate 140 years of diplomatic relations. (Yonhap)
hague@yna.co.kr
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Keywords
#S Korea-Britain-summit #Downing Street Accord
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The Downing Street Accord:
A United Kingdom-Republic of Korea Global Strategic Partnership
Relations between the United Kingdom (UK) and the Republic of Korea (ROK) are at their closest since they were established. Reflecting the next phase of the partnership between our two nations, the UK and the ROK are today signing a new Downing Street Accord to strengthen and deepen our collaboration across security and defence, science and technology, prosperity and trade and energy security. This will ensure that the ties between our countries, our economies and our people are raised to the highest level of strategic ambition, to endure for this century and beyond.
As nations from Europe and Asia, respectively, we intend our partnership to be broad and deep, offering mutual benefit, trust and reciprocity. The ROK and the UK have a shared commitment to democratic principles, the rule of law, fundamental freedoms, the protection and promotion of human rights and gender equality, global economic security, open and fair trade and tackling the climate crisis. Our partnership exemplifies how two liberal, democratic sovereign nations can work together bilaterally, advancing both our national interests and the goals of security and prosperity globally. Moreover, as two agile and dynamic markets with particular strengths in science and technology, and the maritime, financial and services sectors, we will demonstrate the vital role we have to play in shaping a rules- based, resilient global economic order.
We approach this new era in our relationship with deep historical foundations. Our new global strategic partnership, the Downing Street Accord, marks 140 years of diplomatic relations between our nations, as well as the 70th anniversary of the Korean War Armistice. During our long bilateral relationship, we have established a robust set of shared values. We have fought alongside each other in defence of the UN Charter and we have worked together to overcome shared global challenges, in support of freedom and democracy.
The Downing Street Accord looks to the future, reflecting the changing nature of national security in the twenty-first century. Our two nations share similar strategic assessments about the challenges we face. The international order that we have sought to defend over the last seventy years is under threat. The ability to innovate and achieve strategic advantage is increasingly central to both our future prosperity and our economic security. We must continue to invest in conventional deterrence and defence, and to adapt our capabilities to meet new challenges.
Yet we are confident that nations like ours are particularly well-placed to adapt to these changes and to protect and promote the interests of our citizens as well as our shared vision of an open and stable international order. As we reach this new high point in our bilateral relations, both nations have already begun to adapt by rethinking our approach to security and prosperity and renewing and reimagining our bilateral and multilateral relations with others. Together, we will use our voices to protect, promote and shape the rules-based international system. To this end, we will cooperate as close partners in multilateral fora including the G20 and the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), given the ROK’s membership from 2024 to 2025, and strengthen our partnership through the G7, building on the ROK's constructive engagement.
We condemn the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK)’s unlawful nuclear and missile development that poses a serious threat to international peace and security. The DPRK must abandon all its nuclear weapons, any other weapons of mass destruction, ballistic missile programmes and existing nuclear programmes, in a complete, verifiable and irreversible manner. The UK supports the objectives of the ROK for a denuclearised, peaceful and prosperous Korean peninsula. We strongly urge the DPRK to immediately cease unlawful and destabilising activities, return to meaningful dialogue and work towards peace. We oppose all forms of arms transfer and related military cooperation between the DPRK and Russia, and urge the two sides to abide by relevant resolutions. We commit to strengthening cooperation aimed at raising awareness of violations and abuses of human rights, and convincing the DPRK to respect and observe human rights. We support a unified Korean Peninsula that is free and at peace.
We remain united in condemning Russia’s unprovoked aggression against Ukraine and share a common interest in upholding the UN Charter, and the territorial integrity of member states. The continuing war undermines food and energy security, which is essential for global prosperity; we call on Russia to immediately cease its targeted attacks on Ukrainian grain supplies. We remain steadfast in our support for Ukraine and are committed to supporting Ukraine’s efforts to recover and rebuild. We recognise that private investment will be essential for Ukraine’s recovery and unlocking its economic potential, and that our respective private sectors are well placed to support the reconstruction process. We will work together to support an open and stable international order, based on the UN Charter and international law. We will strive for openness and transparency in the Indo-Pacific. We emphasise that our basic positions on Taiwan remain unchanged. Peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait is an indispensable element in the security and prosperity of the international community. Given the serious nature of the situation in the East and South China Seas, we strongly oppose any unilateral attempts to change the status quo in the region. We reiterate our firm commitment to international law, including freedom of navigation and overflight, as set out in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
We strongly condemn the abhorrent terrorist attacks perpetrated by Hamas on 7 October, which cannot be justified under any circumstances. All parties to conflicts must adhere to their obligations under international law, including international humanitarian law and international human rights law. We express deep concern at the humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip and its grave impact on the civilian population. The UK and the ROK remain committed to making progress towards a two-state solution. We share a clear longstanding position on the Middle East Peace Process: we support a negotiated settlement leading to a safe and secure Israel living alongside a viable and sovereign Palestinian state. We wish to underline the need to work together and avoid any further spread of conflict, as well as prioritising the protection of civilians, and provision of humanitarian assistance to populations in need in Gaza.
This new Downing Street Accord is a political document, which builds on the UK-ROK Bilateral Framework for Closer Cooperation and represents our shared understanding to implement its ambition with a strategic, future-facing focus:
Firstly, we will work to strengthen an open and resilient international order. We commit to deepening our cooperation on security issues to address the geopolitical environment and uphold a resilient international order that fosters regional and global stability. We will strengthen bilateral defence cooperation by working together to sign a joint Defence Memorandum of Understanding following the State Visit.
Secondly, we will work together to promote a rules-based economic order and address risks and vulnerabilities to our long-term prosperity and security. Through collaboration, we will shape the future frontiers of the world’s economy across global principles, standards and regulations. We will build capacity and capability in emerging technologies and data across academia, industry and government. We will extend, deepen and enhance our bilateral trade and investment ties, unlocking existing market access barriers and also emphasising future priority and high-technology sectors, including AI and semiconductors.
Finally, recognising our shared responsibilities, we will work together to deliver a sustainable future, built on clean and secure energy, as well as resilient critical minerals supply chains that power our innovative economies. Through collaboration between governments and industry, we can overcome emerging challenges to be stronger and more resilient to the shocks and challenges we face geopolitically, while protecting our environment. We commit to putting the rights of women and girls at the centre of our bilateral cooperation to promote a safer, more equitable and prosperous world. We reaffirm our commitment to the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, and to accelerating our work together on inclusive growth, climate change and gender equality through our Strategic Development Partnership.
Rishi Sunak Yoon Suk Yeol
Prime Minister of the United Kingdom President of the Republic of Korea
Recognising our determination to ensure our partnership delivers our ambition, we commit to the following:
1. Strengthening an open and resilient international order
We must deepen our defence and security ties to promote peace and stability, and strengthen global and regional resilience, including by consulting each other on important regional and global security issues. Furthermore, we will establish a new ROK-UK Foreign and Defence Ministerial 2+2 Meeting that will enhance cooperation in addressing regional and global challenges to peace and security, and consider measures in response. Together, we will:
- Work together to sign a UK-ROK defence cooperation Memorandum of Understanding to develop a comprehensive institutional framework for deeper UK-ROK defence cooperation.
- Commit to further bilateral exercises to increase interoperability between our armed forces.
- Pursue a defence partnership for joint defence equipment capability development, including through research and development programmes, to ensure our armed forces can meet the evolving threat landscape.
- Develop a refreshed industrial research and development initiative including intensified UK-ROK defence industry dialogues that lead to a joint defence export Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) identifying priority markets.
- Conduct joint UK-ROK sanctions enforcement patrols against DPRK, to strengthen and support UNSC resolutions to limit funding to DPRK’s ballistic missile and nuclear programmes.
- Establish a UK-ROK Strategic Cyber Partnership, focused on developing key capabilities and closer coordination to counter and deter cyber threats, and build resilience, including by strengthening collaboration with industry.
- Share maritime security related information and explore the possibility of ROK’s participation in the UK’s Maritime Domain Awareness Programme to tackle maritime threats in the Indo-Pacific region more efficiently.
- Work together to defend democracy in both of our countries and internationally, including through a senior official-led dialogue, to identify and respond to issues that undermine our liberal democracies; and cooperation on the third Summit for Democracy.
2. Pursuing prosperity, growth and security in our economies
To strengthen both our own and global economic security, build technology partnerships, diversify our supply chains and enhance cooperation among trusted partners, we will:
- Revitalise the 1985 UK-ROK Treaty on Science and Technology, through an Implementation Arrangement, to elevate our science and technology partnership, creating a framework to promote collaborative research and development, boosting innovation and commercialisation, and industrial and business cooperation in critical technologies and sectors, and coordination on governance issues.
- Welcome the launch of the ROK-UK Digital Partnership, which will foster collaboration across shared priorities, including telecoms supply chain diversification, semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and cybersecurity.
- Recognise the need for global norms and technical standards that promote innovation in digital technology, including artificial intelligence, while promoting our shared values and minimising risks. Building on this shared understanding, we intend to continue discussions on matters of common interest, involving norms and technical standards including advancing AI safety, closing the digital
divide, addressing digital literacy, providing citizen-centric digital government services, creating a sustainable digital ecosystem.
- Deepen collaboration on semiconductors. We will work together to improve the resilience of semiconductor supply chains through both bilateral activities and cooperation in multilateral fora. This will be underpinned by commitments set out under the UK-ROK Framework for Semiconductor Cooperation, which will strengthen cooperation in this sector.
- Undertake to deepen collaboration on the responsible military use of artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies. In that regard, the UK welcomes the ROK hosting REAIM in Seoul in 2024 and will explore opportunities to provide support. Our goal is to enhance international security. The use of AI in the military domain should always be in accordance with international humanitarian law. We are committed to working together to maximise benefits and address risks that emerging and disruptive technologies could bring about, as well as advancing norms and principles of responsible use. We will endeavour to strengthen arms control and non-proliferation.
- Welcome the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding on Space Cooperation between the UK and the ROK. This MOU will cultivate a closer partnership on Space matters, marking a key milestone in our relationship on Space.
- Building on the continued scientific and research engagements of the two countries, look forward to ROK's potential opportunity to sign a Cooperation Agreement on the Square Kilometre Array Observatory (SKAO).
- Contribute to sustainable human and economic development, by addressing global challenges and exploring unknown areas. We recognise the importance of increased cooperation across the broad spectrum of research and innovation, from fundamental science to business innovation. We will strengthen research and innovation cooperation between the two countries, including through joint research and personnel exchanges.
- Recognise the significance of quantum technology, a critical innovation enabler in the industry and security environments, and actively respond to the rapidly changing technological landscape through various measures, talent exchanges and standardisation efforts.
- Welcome the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding on digital government cooperation between the UK and the ROK. This Memorandum of Understanding will be the fundamental platform for the discussion regarding more effective and efficient public sector digital transformation which is essential for the prosperity and growth of our economies.
- Explore opportunities for cooperation on engineering biology – a transformative emerging technology – such as closer research collaboration, sharing of best practices in responsible innovation, and promoting pro-growth norms in the global bio economy.
- Advance our shared vision for the trusted use of artificial intelligence, and use our Digital Partnership to expand our partnership in artificial intelligence, including through joint research, policy sharing, and establishment of a civil cooperation network. The UK and the ROK will also endeavour to collaborate on the development of international governance on artificial intelligence through multilateral fora, including through co-hosting a mini, virtual Artificial Intelligence Safety Summit.
- Recognise the importance of interoperability and supplier diversity in building a robust digital infrastructure, laying a solid foundation for the digital economy. We will facilitate bilateral and multilateral R&D collaboration and partnership between our countries’ industry and academia.
- Promote the need for strong international partnerships to support and strengthen the rules-based international trading system. We are committed to this goal and to the importance of free and fair competition to promote global trade and opportunities for our businesses. We commit to pursuing trade policies which are non-discriminatory and compatible with the World Trade Organization (WTO) framework, and which encourage predictability in our trading relationships. We respect the vital role played by the WTO in free, fair, rules-based international trade. We will raise our voices
jointly to uphold the principles of rules-based free trade to advance global trade rules that are fit for the 21st century.
- Following the completion of all necessary domestic procedures on each side, open negotiations to strengthen our Free Trade Agreement (FTA), to improve and expand on existing commitments, including through ambitious commitments in areas where trade policy has evolved since the original FTA was signed. This modernisation of the FTA is also expected to reflect the importance of emerging trade agendas such as supply chain resilience, digital economy, and energy cooperation. Relevant UK and ROK Ministers commit to launching upgrade negotiations in November 2023.
- Commit to work collaboratively to overcome market access barriers in a broad range of areas, as part of the FTA and other wider bilateral agreements and arrangements.
- Complementing and linked to FTA arrangements, commit to annual high-level meetings between the UK’s Department for Business and Trade (DBT) and ROK’s Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOTIE) to enhance dialogue and further strengthen high level UK-ROK collaboration on strategic opportunities and challenges of mutual interest.
- Establish the UK-ROK Economic and Financial Dialogue between HM Treasury and ROK’s Ministry of Economy and Finance (MOEF) by the end of 2024 with an ambition to ensure economic prosperity of both our nations by deepening cooperation and sharing of information in areas such as macroeconomic stability, fiscal policy, financial markets, economic security and international financial issues.
- Establish an investment cooperation channel by the end of 2024 between the UK’s Department for Business and Trade and ROK’s Ministry of Economy and Finance, including an annual meeting of strategic investors under a Government-to-Government framework, to further enhance bilateral economic links and encourage mutual investment between the UK and the ROK.
- Establish the UK-ROK Supply Chains Dialogue by the end of 2023 with an ambition to ensure cross- government exchanges and cooperation to promote resilience of critical supply chains, essential for economic activity and security, including for materials, parts and equipment for cutting-edge technologies, essential medical products, energy, and critical mineral resources.
- Strengthen our positions as global science and technology superpowers, supporting high-potential companies to invest in each other’s tech sectors, driving innovation and research and development partnerships.
- Strengthen work towards signing a Letter of Intent (LOI) for ROK-UK cooperation in the maritime sector. Such an arrangement would strengthen our bilateral cooperation allowing both our nations to work closely together on major maritime issues.
- Sign the UK-ROK Customs Agreement on Cooperation and Mutual Administrative Assistance. This will support our common objectives of facilitating legitimate trade and commercial opportunities, and tackling serious and organised crime through effective customs enforcement.
- Recognising the shared strengths of our respective creative sectors (film, television, music, video games, advertising, design and designer fashion, publishing, architecture, museums and crafts), deepen business exchanges and official working level trade cooperation exchanges in these dynamic sectors.
- Recognising our respective strengths in education and skills, deepen business exchanges in this sector.
- Work together to boost people-to-people ties between our younger generations. We appreciate the active collaboration and valuable support of our two governments to facilitate those participating in our Youth Mobility Scheme and Working Holiday Programme. We will endeavour to generate further momentum for this initiative.
3. Delivering a sustainable, secure and resilient future
Together, we will protect our people and our planet, and we will deepen our commitment to keeping a limit of a 1.5 degrees Celsius temperature rise within reach and achieving net zero by 2050, in line with the trajectories set out in the Paris Agreement and Glasgow Climate Pact. We will commit to holistically addressing energy security, the climate crisis, and risks to the supply of affordable, clean energy. To achieve this, we will:
- Sign a new UK-ROK Clean Energy Partnership to drive this cooperation – with the accelerated deployment of clean energy, particularly offshore wind, and civil nuclear, central to our ambition. We will share expertise and experience, collaborate on the setting of standards and regulations, and build business partnerships to accelerate the deployment of clean energies in both countries and in third countries.
- Convene an annual UK-ROK Clean Energy high-level meeting, enabling policymakers and industry CEOs to review opportunities for reciprocal trade and investment partnerships in third countries. This will be underpinned by senior official dialogues and new/refreshed MOUs covering:
o Offshore wind: supporting both the UK and the ROK to achieve respective 2030 deployment ambitions, energy security and underpinning economic growth. Sharing lessons learnt, addressing the barriers to deployment, and identifying opportunities for construction and sustainable supply chain development and enabling business partnerships through investment. Signing an MOU on offshore wind and committing to building a mutually beneficial relationship to accelerate the scale and speed at which fixed and floating offshore wind is deployed in the UK, the ROK and third countries, delivering for economic growth for both countries, and shoring up energy security.
o Civil nuclear: recognising the global need to deploy nuclear to combat climate change, and the need for diversifying nuclear supply-chains, both sides will seek to maintain and develop the broadest possible relationship, including on: strengthening nuclear fuel supply chains; safety, security and non-proliferation; decommissioning; and the development of gigawatt- scale nuclear reactors, small modular reactors, and other advanced nuclear reactors, in both countries and in third country markets underpinned by the MOUs signed between the two countries in November 2023.
o Underpinning all aspects of the Clean Energy Partnership will be a commitment by the UK and the ROK to accelerate the global transition to net zero.
o The UK and the ROK reaffirm to implement existing phase-out commitments of domestic unabated coal power generation and will endeavour to accelerate the transition.
o The UK and the ROK commit to intensify our cooperation to accelerate the decarbonisation of our energy systems to achieve net zero by 2050 and to take action on global sectoral ambitions including tripling nuclear energy, tripling of global renewables capacity, and doubling of global energy efficiency improvements. We acknowledge that initiatives such as the Breakthrough Agenda and Carbon Free Energy Initiative can play a role in achieving these shared goals.
o The UK and the ROK will establish a Critical Minerals Joint Working Group. This will explore working towards an MOU to enhance research and innovation collaboration, encouraging partnerships between companies, industrial bodies, and academic institutions, and information sharing and cooperation on international standards.
- Continue to work closely together to promote climate ambition in multilateral fora including the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the International Maritime Organization (IMO). We welcome the adoption by ICAO Assembly, of a long-term global aspirational goal (LTAG) for international aviation of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 and the recently updated IMO Greenhouse Gas Strategy which sets a common ambition to reach net zero GHG emissions by or
around, (i.e. close to) 2050. The UK and the ROK commit to working in collaboration to aid decarbonisation of these vital sectors, including through complementary initiatives such as the International Aviation Climate Ambition Coalition.
- Commit to working together through international fora to meet our global environmental targets and shared interests, protect and restore nature and to halt and reverse biodiversity loss. This includes working effectively together to implement the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework to deliver global targets and goals by 2030.
- Work together to deliver on the vision set out within the Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration (GLD) on Forests and Land-use – working collaboratively through the Forests & Climate Leaders Partnership (FCLP) and LEAF Coalition.
- Remain committed to helping developing nations reduce emissions and adapt to climate change, as demonstrated through our substantially enhanced contributions to the Green Climate Fund’s second replenishment in 2023.
- Enhance cooperation to help achieve commercially viable fusion energy. This may include collaborating on research and development projects, activities that support fusion power plant development, coordinating on related policies where appropriate (such as fusion regulations and standards), and supporting the development of the supply chain.
- Partner to help countries make progress, secure investment, build resilient economies and institutions, and unleash their population’s potential. Cooperation will be guided by our commitments, including under the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, the Addis Ababa Action Agenda and Paris Agreement.
- Commit to a Strategic Development Partnership to strengthen our cooperation. A UK-ROK Development Cooperation Policy Dialogue will be held annually at senior official level where progress will be underpinned by an action plan, developed and jointly decided upon during the upcoming Development Cooperation Policy Dialogue. This partnership will deepen cooperation in digital transformation, climate and environment, health, private sector engagement, development finance, and women and girls.
- Deepen cooperation between the British Investment Partnerships and ROK’s Economic Development Cooperation Fund (EDCF) to pursue new collaboration in 2024.
- Strengthen our respective roles as founding Members of the Global Green Growth Institute in supporting developing countries’ efforts to accelerate green transition and tackle climate change, through increased financial contributions to the Institute.
3. N Korea scraps military deal with South, vows to deploy weapons to border
Hardly surprising. But let the regime be the ones to withdraw from the agreement.
The irony is the agreement never reduced tensions.
N Korea scraps military deal with South, vows to deploy weapons to border — Radio Free Asia
The move came a day after Seoul suspended the inter-Korean deal to tackle the North’s illegal satellite launch.
By Lee Jeong-Ho for RFA
2023.11.22
Seoul, South Korea
rfa.org
N Korea scraps military deal with South, vows to deploy weapons to border
The move came a day after Seoul suspended the inter-Korean deal to tackle the North’s illegal satellite launch.
By Lee Jeong-Ho for RFA
2023.11.22
Seoul, South Korea
North Korea has escalated its pressure campaign against Seoul, declaring its immediate and complete withdrawal from the military agreement designed to reduce hostilities between the two nations. It also pledged to deploy its latest weaponry along the border with South Korea.
The latest threat comes just a day after South Korea suspended the landmark 2018 inter-Korean military agreement as a countermeasure to Pyongyang’s illegal satellite launch that violated a United Nations Security Council resolution. Rocket technology can be used for both launching satellites and missiles. For that reason, the U.N. bans North Korea from launching a ballistic rocket, even if it claims to be a satellite launch.
“We will revoke all military measures previously taken to prevent military tensions and conflicts in all areas including land, sea, and air,” North Korea’s defense ministry said in a statement as cited by the official Korean Central News Agency Thursday.
“We will also advance the deployment of more powerful forces and new military equipment to the region along the Military Demarcation Line,” the statement added.
The main concern is centered on Seoul restarting its monitoring operations close to the border. North Korea perceives the surveillance activities, particularly involving new technology, by South Korea and its ally, the United States, as a major security threat due to its own lack of comparable technological capabilities. Thus, it has long protested against the allies’ surveillance activities near the border.
The two Koreas had agreed to halt each defined as hostile actions toward the nother near the border, but the North has conducted a number of provocations, violating the terms of the agreement.
According to South Korea’s Defense Ministry, North Korea has violated the agreement a total of 17 times up until last year since the agreement was signed. Critics in the South, thus, have long argued that the deal has already become ineffective, only serving to restrict Seoul’s operational and surveillance capabilities.
“The situation in the Military Demarcation Line area has become uncontrollable and beyond repair due to the irreversible mistakes committed by the political and military gangsters of ROK,” the North’s Defense Ministry said, using South Korea’s formal name, shifting the blame for the worsening situation onto the South.
The ministry also cited the latest development as rationale for escalating its nuclear arms developments, stating that South’s hostility shows the “necessity and legitimacy of our ongoing prioritization of strengthening nuclear war deterrence and modernizing military power.”
In a latest display of martial protest, North Korea launched a ballistic missile late Wednesday – an apparent response to Seoul’s decision to suspend the military agreement.
North Korea launched an unidentified ballistic missile at around 11:05 pm Wednesday, from the Sunan area in South Pyongan Province towards its eastern coast, the South’s Joint Chief of Staff said. The South Korean authorities, however, added that it assessed the launch had failed.
“The intelligence agencies of South Korea and the U.S. are currently conducting further analysis,” the JSC said in a statement Thursday, without further elaboration.
Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the Seoul-based University of North Korean Studies, emphasized the necessity of a balanced approach involving both strong responses to the North’s violations and concurrent dialogue to manage tensions on the Korean peninsula.
“North Korea may proceed military provocation in the West Sea (Yellow Sea) near the Northern Limit Line (NLL) of South Korea, and could activate coastal artillery in this area. Additionally, if anti-Pyongyang leaflet distributions to the North occur in the border area, there could be armed responses, and if ROK-US-Japan strategic assets are deployed, it is likely to respond with ballistic missiles,” Yang said.
“Strong responses are necessary for North Korea’s violations of regulations. However, dialogue must also be concurrently pursued to manage the tensions on the Korean Peninsula,” the pundit added.
“There have always been conflicts with North Korea across all administrations. Efforts in national defense should be made, but Seoul must also simultaneously engage in a two-track approach to maintain stability on the Korean Peninsula.”
Edited by Taejun Kang and Mike Firn.
rfa.org
4. Defense chief says partial suspension of 2018 military agreement ‘minimum defensive measure’
Well done South Korea. You took prudent action and allowed the north to demonstrate its irresponsibility as a malign actor.
Defense chief says partial suspension of 2018 military agreement ‘minimum defensive measure’ | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr
Defense chief says partial suspension of 2018 military agreement ‘minimum defensive measure’
Kim Eun-jung
North Korea 10:24 November 23, 2023
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By Kim Eun-jung
SEOUL, Nov. 23 (Yonhap) — Defense chief Shin Won-sik said Thursday that South Korea’s partial suspension of a 2018 inter-Korean tension reduction deal is “a proportional response” and “a minimal defensive measure” against Pyongyang following its spy satellite launch.
Shin’s comments came hours after North Korea’s defense ministry vowed to immediately restore all military measures halted under the Comprehensive Military Agreement and warned that the South must “pay dearly” for its decision.
On Wednesday, President Yoon Suk Yeol approved a motion to suspend a clause in the 2018 accord that calls for setting up a no-fly zone around the Military Demarcation Line separating the two Koreas.
Defense Minister Shin Won-sik speaks during a parliamentary session held at the National Assembly on Nov. 23, 2023. (Yonhap)
“North Korea’s launch of what it calls a military spy satellite on Nov. 21 is a clear violation of the U.N. Security Council resolutions and a serious provocation against the international community, once again showing it has no will to abide by the military agreement,” Shin said in a parliamentary session.
“Therefore, the partial suspension of the agreement is an essential measure to protect people’s lives and safety. It is a corresponding response to North Korea’s provocation and a minimal defensive measure,” he added.
In response to the growing threat posed by the North, Shin said the South Korean military will resume aerial surveillance operations near the border region.
“If North Korea stages provocations under the pretext of the suspension, we will respond immediately, strongly and until the end,” he said.
Surveillance drones and reconnaissance aircraft were deployed near the border shortly after the suspension took effect Wednesday afternoon, according to military sources.
North Korea fired an unspecified ballistic missile toward the East Sea on Wednesday night, but the launch appears to have failed, South Korean military said.
A U-2S Dragon Lady, a U.S. high-altitude intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance aircraft, returns from a mission to the U.S. Osan Air Base in Pyeongtaek, 60 kilometers south of Seoul, on Nov. 22, 2023, a day after North Korea launched what it claimed to be a military spy satellite. (Yonhap)
ejkim@yna.co.kr
(END)
Keywords
#defense chief #NK
en.yna.co.kr
5. N. Korea vows to restore all military measures halted under inter-Korean military accord
Will it rebuild the guard posts in the DMZ/ Will it rearm its soldiers in the JSA?
But the regine list this political warfare skirmish because it is the irresponsible and maling actor while the ROK aminatined the moral high ground by attempting to keep the agreement in force while suspending only those parts that weakened defenses.
(LEAD) N. Korea vows to restore all military measures halted under inter-Korean military accord
en.yna.co.kr
(LEAD) N. Korea vows to restore all military measures halted under inter-Korean military accord | Yonhap News Agency
Kim Soo-yeon
North Korea 07:58 November 23, 2023
(ATTN: UPDATES with more details throughout)
By Kim Soo-yeon
SEOUL, Nov. 23 (Yonhap) — North Korea said Thursday it will immediately restore all military measures halted under a 2018 inter-Korean military accord after South Korea suspended part of the tension reduction deal following the North’s launch of a military spy satellite.
The North’s defense ministry said it will “never be bound” by the military agreement any more, effectively scrapping the deal that calls for a series of tension reduction measures along the heavily armed border, and warned that the South must “pay dearly” for its decision.
“We will immediately restore all military measures that have been halted according to the North-South military agreement,” the ministry said in a statement carried by the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
“We will withdraw the military steps, taken to prevent military tension and conflict in all spheres including ground, sea and air, and deploy more powerful armed forces and new-type military hardware in the region along the Military Demarcation Line,” it said.
South Korea must “pay dearly for their irresponsible and grave political and military provocations that have pushed the present situation to an uncontrollable phase,” the North said.
This photo, carried by North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency on Nov. 22, 2023, shows the North launching a military spy satellite, called the Malligyong-1, on a new type of Chollima-1 rocket the previous day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
South Korea partially suspended the 2018 inter-Korean military accord after North Korea launched a military spy satellite, called the Malligyong-1, on a new type of Chollima-1 rocket Tuesday night. The move allowed Seoul to immediately restore reconnaissance and surveillance operations near the border with North Korea.
Defending the satellite launch as a “legitimate” exercise of a right to self-defense, North Korea denounced the South for partially suspending the agreement for “unreasonable and illogical” reasons.
“Those of the ‘ROK’ will be held wholly accountable in case an irretrievable clash breaks out between the north and the south,” the ministry said, using the acronym of South Korea’s full name, the Republic of Korea.
The agreement, signed Sept. 19, 2018, under the previous liberal administration of President Moon Jae-in, calls for setting up buffer zones and no-fly zones near the inter-Korean border in a bid to prevent accidental clashes between the two Koreas.
Pyongyang had violated the accord 17 times until the end of last year, and 15 violations occurred last year alone, according to Seoul’s defense ministry. Defense Minister Shin Won-sik had called for suspending the accord, saying it seriously limits the South Korean military’s aerial surveillance capabilities.
North Korea claimed it has successfully put a military spy satellite into orbit and vowed to launch several more satellites within a short span of time to better reconnoiter South Korea and “the region of its operational interest.”
The launch came amid suspicion that Russia may have provided technical assistance for the North’s spy satellite in return for Pyongyang’s supply of artillery and munitions for use in its war in Ukraine.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (2nd from R) visits the Pyongyang General Control Center of the North’s National Aerospace Technology Administration on Nov. 22, 2023, in this photo carried by the Korean Central News Agency. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
sooyeon@yna.co.kr
(END)
Keywords
#N Korea #military accord
HOME North Korea
en.yna.co.kr
6. North Korea, Defying Warnings, Launches a Spy Satellite, Posing a Dilemma for Seoul and Washington
Should we be concerned? Russia and north Korean cooperation has been talking about the place for a long time. As a friend and colleague pointed out, asking where did the KN 24 come from? - It is an Iskander from Russia.
And one satellite does not make a superior intelligence capability. Will it be in geosynchronous orbit over South Korea? Or will it be orbiting the entire earth? The regime already claims it sends back photos of Anderson Air Force base in Guam so I assume it is not in geosynchronous orbit over South Korea. (though I also think these reports should be taken with a grain of salt and the imagery may simply be google earth)
But we are all getting ourselves twisted up like pretzels over these north Korean activities. We must accurately assess and report the threat, which is very significant, but putting up a satellite (or 10 will not be. war winner for the regime). We must assess the threats in comparison to our superior defensive capabilities. And we must assess where the regime's political warfare and blackmail diplomacy strategy is failing. And we must also consider the internal stability situation in the north. There are a lot of things to fear and very tragic things will happen if Kim decides to launch an attack, but he is also not stupud and is unlikely to attack into the strength of the alliance. We must move beyond this back and forth between provications and responses (and the ROK/US alliance is doing that with its new normal of military readiness exercises) and shift to executing our own strategy which would consist of a human rights upfront approach, and information campaign and the pursuit of a free and unified Korea. We need to cease being reactive and start executing a proactive alliance strategy. But we will always be faced with sensational reporting. (but why do they never report on the ongoing failures of the north's strategies that we can and must exploit?)
North Korea, Defying Warnings, Launches a Spy Satellite, Posing a Dilemma for Seoul and Washington
DONALD KIRK
Seoul, South Korea
Donald Kirk is the Seoul Correspondent of the Sun.
nysun.com3 min
November 22, 2023
The launch gives the impression of much closer cooperation between North Korea and Russia since North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, met President Putin in September.
nysun.com
North Korea, putting a spy satellite into orbit on its third attempt, confronts Seoul and Washington with a problem: Having warned North Korea many times of dire consequences, what if anything can they do to live up to their threats?
As the satellite was confirmed spinning around the earth, taking pictures of the American base on Guam, according to the North’s state TV, the Americans and South Koreans responded with gestures that indicated their frustration over the North’s undoubted achievement.
After greeting North Korea’s success in sending the satellite into space with the usual charges of a “provocation,” Seoul suspended an agreement reached with the North more than five years ago to stop military surveillance flights on either side of the Demilitarized Zone between the two Koreas.
South Korea’s Prime Minister, Han Duck Soo, said the launch showed that North Korea “has no will” to observe the terms of the agreement that was “designed to reduce military tension on the Korean peninsula and build trust.”
Suspension of the agreement, however, had little meaning since the South’s conservative president, Yoon Suk-yeol, had been talking about doing away with it ever since taking over from his liberal predecessor, Moon Jae-in, in May 2022.
The launch of the satellite provided the perfect pretext for Mr. Yoon to do what he wanted to do anyway. The South has accused the North of numerous violations while American and South Korean military officers complained they could not fly close enough to the line to see what the North Koreans were up to.
At the same time, the North’s success gave the impression of much closer cooperation between North Korea and Russia since North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, met President Putin at the Vostochny cosmodrome near the Amur River in September at the outset of his six-day trip to Russian bases in the region.
Experts doubted if Russia had suddenly provided new technology after two previous failures, but Russians were presumably on hand at the Sohae facility in northwestern North Korea, near the Chinese border to offer advice and applaud the launch in accordance with the broad agreement reached between Mr. Kim and Mr. Putin.
“North Korea is receiving not just food and fuel assistance but also military satellite technology,” said a long-time Korea analyst, Victor Cha, at the Center for Strategic and International Studies at Washington. Indeed, he said, the Russians may be providing “other advanced technology such as nuclear-powered submarines and ballistic missiles.”
CSIS has reported what it called “an unprecedented number of arms transfers and other trade activities” between Russia and North Korea since the meeting between Mr. Kim and Mr. Putiin.
Quite aside from suspension of the North-South agreement, the launch of the satellite ratcheted up tensions in other ways. The White House National Security Council warned that a launch “risks destabilizing the situation in the region.” The underlying fear is that the technology used for the launch could also be used to fire an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching targets in North America.
Just two days ago South Korea’s joint chiefs, in a rhetorical exercise, declared, “We sternly warn North Korea to … immediately suspend the current preparations to launch a military spy satellite.” If the North went ahead anyway, said the statement, “our military will take necessary measures to guarantee the lives and safety of the people.”
It was the joint chiefs that confirmed the satellite was in orbit — though still not certain if it was operating as well as North Korea claimed. Mr. Kim was on hand for the launch of the Chollims-1 rocket that put the Malivyabnt-1 satellite into orbit.
By no coincidence, the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson docked at the port of Busan — the third visit by a nuclear carrier this year. South Korea’s navy said the visit was intended “to increase the regular visibility of U.S. strategic assets” — meaning it buttressed Washington’s commitment to defend the South against the North.
nysun.com
7. North Korea claims to have put spy satellite into orbit. Analysts say that could make its military stronger
Remember, reporting on what north Korea says about its capabilities is like reporting on what Hamas says about its actions. There is no grain of salt big enough for these reports.
How can one satellite make the north stronger? Why aren't we describing its likely rudimentary capabilities. Are we hyping the north Korean threat simply for sensational reporting? There is a significant threat from the north but there long as has been. But does this satellite launch quanitivably increase that threat in any appreciable way?
Excerpts:
Analysts said even a single satellite in orbit helps North Korea’s military posture.
“If it works it will improve the North Korean military’s command, control, and communications or intelligence and surveillance capabilities. That would improve the North’s ability to command its forces” in any possible conflict, said Carl Schuster, a former director of operations at the US Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center.
The “satellite will give them a capability that they previously used to lack that can assist them in military targeting, it can assist them in damage assessment,” said Ankit Panda, a nuclear policy at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
And lessons learned from Tuesday’s launch will be used in developing future satellites, Panda said.
“They’re going to take what they learn with this successful launch and apply it to additional launches. They will look to have a resilient, redundant constellation of Earth observation satellites and that will make a pretty big difference for (North Korea’s) overall strategic situational awareness capabilities,” he said.
But others cautioned that the real capabilities of what Pyongyang launched late Tuesday remain to be seen. Some suggested the North had more to lose from the South’s resumption of intelligence gathering along the border than it had to gain from the satellite launch.
“The surveillance drone operations Seoul may soon commence along the DMZ should produce more useful intelligence than North Korea’s rudimentary satellite program,” said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.
...
But Panda cautioned about making assumptions that aid and advice from Russia had made the difference for a successful third launch.
“It would seem unlikely to me given the timeline here that the North Koreans have already received and implemented technical assistance from Russia,” he said.
“Let’s also bear in mind that the North Koreans themselves are remarkably capable at this point.”
North Korea claims to have put spy satellite into orbit. Analysts say that could make its military stronger
By Brad Lendon, Gawon Bae and Yoonjung Seo, CNN
5 minute read
Updated 4:51 AM EST, Wed November 22, 2023
A rocket lifts off late Tuesday carrying North Korea's first spy satellite in images released by state-run media.
Rodong Sinmun
Seoul, South KoreaCNN —
North Korea on Wednesday said it had put its first spy satellite into orbit and vowed further launches to defend against what it called its “enemies’ dangerous military maneuvers.”
Analysts said if the spacecraft works, it could provide significantly improve North Korea’s military capabilities, including enabling it to more accurately target opponents’ forces.
The satellite, named “Malligyong-1,” was launched late Tuesday on a new carrier rocket, “Chollima-1,” according to the state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
“The launch of a reconnaissance satellite is the legal right of North Korea to strengthen its right to self-defense,” the KCNA report said.
Neither South Korea, the United States nor Japan, all of which are experiencing increasing military tensions with North Korea, could confirm the satellite had made it into orbit.
But South Korea called the launch a “clear violation” of a UN Security Council resolution that prohibits North Korea from using ballistic missile technology.
And Wednesday morning the South Korean government partially suspended an agreement it had with North Korea that limited the South’s reconnaissance and surveillance activities along the demilitarized zone (DMZ) that separates the two countries.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un celebrates Tuesday night's satellite launch with workers in an image provided by state-run media.
Rodong Sinmun
The rocket carrying the satellite was launched in a southerly direction and is believed to have passed over Japan’s Okinawa prefecture.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida condemned the launch, referring to it as “a serious situation” that “affects the safety” of people in Japan while reiterating his commitment to continue working with the US and South Korea to respond to Pyongyang’s launches.
In a statement Wednesday, Seoul’s military said that it had been tracking preparations for the launch in close cooperation with the US.
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The statement said Aegis destroyers from South Korea, the US, and Japan were deployed to track the launch and information about the specifics of it were being comprehensively analyzed.
Japanese Defense Minister Hiroyuki Miyazawa said his country was still trying to determine whether North Korea’s satellite had reached orbit.
Third satellite launch attempt
Pyongyang first attempted to put a satellite into orbit in late May, but the second stage of the rocket carrying the satellite malfunctioned and it crashed into the sea.
KCNA said “the reliability and stability of the new engine system” was “low” and the fuel used “unstable,” leading to the mission’s failure.
A second attempt failed in August when there was “an error in the emergency blasting system during the third-stage flight,” a KCNA report said at the time.
That rocket broke into multiple parts before falling into the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea, and the Pacific Ocean, according to Japanese officials.
In a defiant speech to the UN Security Council after the second failed launch, North Korean Ambassador Kim Song insisted that pursuing the spy satellite program was within the country’s “legitimate right as a sovereign state.” He denied that North Korea had been seeking to acquire intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) technology through the satellite launch.
North Korea believed to have exported over 1 million shells to Russia
Tuesday night’s third attempt was widely expected and signaled by Pyongyang, which early Wednesday vowed to launch more.
North Korea’s National Aerospace Development Administration would submit a plan to “secure the capability to reconnoiter the south Korean region … by additionally launching several reconnaissance satellites in a short span of time,” KCNA said.
Pyongyang said having a satellite was a legitimate self-defense measure against what it claims are a series of provocations by the US, South Korea and Japan.
Earlier this week North Korea denounced the US for its potential sales of advanced missiles to Japan and military equipment to South Korea, calling it “a dangerous act” in a report from KCNA.
North Korea said it was “obvious” who the offensive military equipment would be aimed at and used against.
A military boost for Pyongyang
Analysts said even a single satellite in orbit helps North Korea’s military posture.
“If it works it will improve the North Korean military’s command, control, and communications or intelligence and surveillance capabilities. That would improve the North’s ability to command its forces” in any possible conflict, said Carl Schuster, a former director of operations at the US Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center.
The “satellite will give them a capability that they previously used to lack that can assist them in military targeting, it can assist them in damage assessment,” said Ankit Panda, a nuclear policy at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
And lessons learned from Tuesday’s launch will be used in developing future satellites, Panda said.
“They’re going to take what they learn with this successful launch and apply it to additional launches. They will look to have a resilient, redundant constellation of Earth observation satellites and that will make a pretty big difference for (North Korea’s) overall strategic situational awareness capabilities,” he said.
But others cautioned that the real capabilities of what Pyongyang launched late Tuesday remain to be seen. Some suggested the North had more to lose from the South’s resumption of intelligence gathering along the border than it had to gain from the satellite launch.
“The surveillance drone operations Seoul may soon commence along the DMZ should produce more useful intelligence than North Korea’s rudimentary satellite program,” said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.
Russian connection?
South Korea’s Defense Minister Shin Won-sik last Sunday said that the North was believed to have “almost resolved” its rocket engine issues “with Russia’s help.”
That came after North Korean leader Kim Jong Un had visited Russia in September, when he toured the Russian space rocket launch site alongside President Vladimir Putin.
In that meeting, Putin signaled a willingness to assist North Korea in developing its space and satellite program.
But Panda cautioned about making assumptions that aid and advice from Russia had made the difference for a successful third launch.
“It would seem unlikely to me given the timeline here that the North Koreans have already received and implemented technical assistance from Russia,” he said.
“Let’s also bear in mind that the North Koreans themselves are remarkably capable at this point.”
8. New North Korean try at launching military satellite rattles a tense region
Who is rattled? Why should we be rattled?
New North Korean try at launching military satellite rattles a tense region
Pyongyang claims success as U.S. carrier group docks in South Korea
washingtontimes.com · by Andrew Salmon
Video
By - The Washington Times - Tuesday, November 21, 2023
SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea said Tuesday that it had successfully put its first military spy satellite into orbit after two recent failures, on the same day a U.S. carrier strike group docked in South Korea. The two developments underscored evolving tensions in Northeast Asia.
South Korea‘s Joint Chiefs of Staff said it detected the launch of what North Korea has described as a military spy satellite from Pyongyang‘s main space center on Tuesday night. Officials said it flew above international waters off the Korean Peninsula’s west coast and led the Japanese government to warn residents in Okinawa along its flight path to take cover for a brief period.
The apparent placing of the satellite in orbit, reportedly witnessed by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un himself, follows the tightening of ties between North Korea and Russia. Some experts say the alliance could provide the Kim regime with new, more sophisticated satellite-launch technologies in exchange for munitions to bolster Russia’s invasion forces in Ukraine.
South Korean and Japanese officials said they could not verify Pyongyang‘s claim that the latest launch had successfully put its Malligyong-1 satellite into orbit on Tuesday night. The North said more such satellites were planned in the future.
North Korea‘s official state media said Tuesday that the regime had launched the latest satellite in “self-defense,” describing it as a reaction to “the U.S. and its vassal forces’ reckless space militarization.” Regime officials told the official KCNA news service the satellite was needed to detect potential surprise missile attacks from South Korea or the United States.
According to the Japanese Coast Guard, Pyongyang notified the region of three danger zones where rocket debris could fall: two west of the Korean Peninsula and the other to the east of Luzon in the Philippines. Tuesday’s launch came at the very start of a 10-day “launch window” that Pyongyang had conveyed to Japan earlier as a safety warning, saying the rocket launch could come at any time through Dec. 1.
SEE ALSO: South Korea partially suspends inter-Korean agreement after North says it put spy satellite in orbit
Though North Korea is banned from owning ballistic missile technologies — virtually identical to the staged rockets that place satellites into orbit — by U.N. Security Council resolutions, it routinely ignores these strictures.
Japan’s Security Council held an emergency meeting after the launch was detected, with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida denouncing the North’s action as “a serious situation in which the safety of our people has been endangered,” Kyodo News reported.
“We have already sternly protested to North Korea and condemned the launch in the strongest possible terms,” Mr. Kishida said, adding that his government was coordinating with South Korea and the Biden administration in Washington on a response.
At the White House, National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson told reporters the Biden administration strongly condemned North Korea for the launch, saying it “raises tensions and risks destabilizing the security situation in the region and beyond.”
The launch was North Korea‘s third attempt this year, following failed launches in May and August.
In September, Mr. Kim met Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in the Russian Far East. The site specializes exclusively in uncrewed space launches. It is clear from the botched attempts this year, official statements and even public propaganda imagery that Mr. Kim wants satellites.
While North Korea fields a massive force of artillery and tactical and strategic missiles, a gaping hole in its capabilities is a satellite network in space to monitor and help direct its arsenal. Spies in the sky have proven critical in the missile- and drone-heavy conflict in Ukraine, where targeting and guidance depend heavily on data-networked satellite links.
The North Korean notice of a pending new satellite launch ended weeks of speculation in Asian security circles, where it was widely believed that Pyongyang was on the verge of trying again. The regime originally set an October target date, but the month passed without action.
South Korea has been bracing for a new test, which President Yoon Suk-yeol warned recently would be a sign Pyongyang is trying to upgrade its already formidable arsenal of powerful intercontinental ballistic missiles.
“If North Korea succeeds in launching the military reconnaissance satellite, it would signify that North Korea‘s ICBM capabilities have been taken to a higher level,” Mr. Yoon wrote in answer to questions from The Associated Press last week. “Therefore, we will have to come up with reinforced countermeasures.”
The U.S. naval group, led by nuclear aircraft carrier the USS Carl Vinson aircraft carrier, docked at a naval base in South Korea‘s southeastern city of Busan. It is the third U.S. carrier to visit this year, as Washington upgrades its “extended deterrence” cover over the uneasy peninsula.
“The U.S. Carrier Strike Group 1’s visit demonstrates the South Korea-U.S. alliance’s solid combined defense posture and firm resolve to respond to advancing North Korean nuclear and missile threats,” South Korean Maritime Operations Director Rear Adm. Kim Ji-hoon told South Korean news outlets.
• This article is based in part on wire service reports.
• Andrew Salmon can be reached at asalmon@washingtontimes.com.
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washingtontimes.com · by Andrew Salmon
9. NIS says Russia's help was behind N. Korea's successful satellite launch
We should be exploiting this in our sophisticated, holistic information campaign. . The regime's self reliance philosophy is a failure. The regime cannot do satellites without Russian help. The north needs help from another failed state.
(LEAD) NIS says Russia's help was behind N. Korea's successful satellite launch | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Kang Jae-eun · November 23, 2023
(ATTN: ADDS additional details in para 6)
By Kang Jae-eun
SEOUL, Nov. 23 (Yonhap) -- North Korea is believed to have received technological assistance from Russia for this week's successful launch of a military spy satellite, South Korea's intelligence agency was quoted as saying Thursday.
The National Intelligence Service (NIS) gave the assessment during a closed-door meeting of the parliamentary intelligence committee, saying it believes the North's satellite has successfully entered into orbit, according to Rep. Yoo Sang-bum of the ruling People Power Party.
"We believe there has been Russia's help behind the success," the NIS was quoted as saying.
Intelligence suggests that after the rare September summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin, Pyongyang provided data of its two failed satellite launch attempts and Moscow gave its analysis, the NIS reported.
"During the North-Russia summit, Putin publicly expressed his commitment to providing support for North Korea's launch vehicles. There is intelligence that the North provided blueprints and data related to the vehicles used in its first and second attempts and Russia provided its analysis," Yoo said, quoting the NIS.
Tuesday's launch came hours before the beginning of a 10-day launch window between Wednesday and Dec. 1, and the North is believed to have launched the rocket ahead of schedule to take advantage of optimal weather conditions, the NIS reported.
Based on an analysis of debris collected from the North's first launch attempt in May, the satellite at the time was believed to have a lower resolution than a "sub-meter class" satellite with reconnaissance capabilities, the NIS reported.
The agency also reported that the North is believed to be in an early stage in efforts to develop a solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and there have been no signs that the North could conduct its seventh nuclear test in the near future.
"We do not see a high chance of the North conducting a nuclear test in 2023. However, there is a possibility of the North carrying out a nuclear test at any time in 2024 depending on leader Kim Jong-un's decision," the NIS was quoted as saying.
The agency also reported the North is unlikely to conduct another satellite launch this year.
A new type of Chollima-1 rocket carrying a reconnaissance satellite called the Malligyong-1 lifts off from the launching pad at the Sohae satellite launch site in Tongchang-ri in northwestern North Korea on Nov. 21, 2023, in this photo released the next day by the North's official Korean Central News Agency. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
fairydust@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Kang Jae-eun · November 23, 2023
10. NK likely to restore guard posts at DMZ after ditching military agreement
I was wondering about this. I wonder if they will rearm their guards in the JSA.
But here is an alliance response. Let's return to aggressive patrolling on the DMZ to include the reintroduction of US patrols in support of the ROK battalions in the frontline units. This will send a signal of strategic reassurance and resolve, spell some ROK units from continuous patrolling, increase ROK/US interoperability, improve morale of US infantry units by conducting an important mission face to face with the enemy, improve small unit training of US forces,.
In addition, I would ask Korea Telecom to build an extensive cell phone tower network along the South Barrier Fence to extend cell phone signals as far into the north as possible I would have ROK and US troops leaves bags of cell phone handsets on the MDL every day with the phones programmed with numbers to the ROK commander across the DMZ as well as with myriad games and practical information soldiers can use.
NK likely to restore guard posts at DMZ after ditching military agreement
The Korea Times · November 23, 2023
A North Korean guard post is seen from Imjingak Park on the South Korean side of the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) in Paju, Gyeonggi Province, July 20. Korea Times photo by Choi Won-suk
Seoul vows immediate retaliation against possible provocations
By Lee Hyo-jin
North Korea is likely to restore guard posts inside the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) as one of its initial moves to demonstrate the effective nullification of the 2018 inter-Korean military agreement, analysts said Thursday.
The reclusive regime may also carry out artillery exercises near the Northern Limit Line (NLL) and engage in other provocative actions along the border that were prohibited under the military pact, according to observers.
"Restoring guard posts at the DMZ is perhaps the easiest and fastest way for the North to show that it is beefing up its military presence near the border," said Cho Han-bum, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification.
Pyongyang's defense ministry announced on Thursday that it would reinstate "all military measures" that were suspended under the Comprehensive Military Agreement (CMA), also known as the Sept. 19 military agreement. The document was signed in 2018 when the two Koreas reached a consensus over reducing military tensions near the border.
"We will immediately restore all military measures that have been halted according to the north-south military agreement," it said in a statement carried by the North's official mouthpiece, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
"We will withdraw the military steps, taken to prevent military tension and conflict in all spheres including ground, sea and air, and deploy more powerful armed forces and new-types of military hardware in the region along the Military Demarcation Line," it added.
The announcement came just a day after South Korea's decision to partially suspend the CMA and resume front-line aerial surveillance, in response to the North's launch of a military spy satellite on Tuesday night.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, second from right, visits the Pyongyang General Control Center of the North's National Aerospace Technology Administration, in this photo provided by North Korea's state media, the Korean Central News Agency, Thursday. Yonhap
As per the Sept. 19 military agreement, both Koreas dismantled 11 front-line guard posts from their respective sides in December 2018.
Cho noted that the North's annual wintertime military exercises, which are expected to kick off in December and continue through early spring, will be more extensive than previous ones and could involve tactical nuclear strike drills.
"They will also launch additional spy satellites in the coming months to fully establish a space-based surveillance system. At least five satellites in operation are required to observe the Korean Peninsula around the clock," the researcher said.
Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean studies at Ewha Womans University, thinks that the North will soon conduct artillery exercises near the NLL in the West Sea, the maritime border separating the two Koreas, to draw international attention to the military pact, which has been effectively abolished.
"It may also utilize its surveillance drones near the border in response to South Korea's resumption of reconnaissance activities," he said.
When asked about how Seoul would respond to such provocations, Park replied, "Now that North Korea has officially announced that it will disregard the CMA, our military will feel less constrained by the agreement. We may witness some tit-for-tat actions."
South Korea's Defense Minister Shin Won-sik warned of retaliatory measures against the North's potential military provocations.
"If North Korea engages in provocative actions using the suspension (of the military agreement) as an excuse, we will immediately take overwhelming retaliatory measures," Shin said during a National Assembly session, Thursday.
The Korea Times · November 23, 2023
11. Fighting fire with fire (north and South Korea)
Very dangerous thinking here from the Korea Times Editorial Board. It is this kind of thinking that puts the ROK at great risk from the north - not from attack but from political warfare and subversion of the South Korean government and society.
Excerpts:
Since South Korea regained its democracy about three decades ago, its relationship with North Korea has gone up and down under progressive and conservative presidents. Progressive leaders went all out to maintain peace and co-prosperity on this divided peninsula. They had to fight with and persuade all obstructors — hawks within and outside the nation and North Korea itself. When conservatives took power, however, everything went back to square one. Tension replaced reconciliation.
This seems to be another such moment. Ripping up the inter-Korean military accord will remove the last safety device. Koreans must think about who will benefit most from their return to seven decades ago.
There are groups wanting to maintain some degree of tension on this peninsula rather than allow a drastic change in the status quo, even fanning conflicts. Helping them are hawks in both Koreas. Strong and well-prepared doves must prevail again, replacing chickenhawks.
Koreans should, and can, pick such leaders next year and three and a half years later.
Fighting fire with fire
The Korea Times · November 23, 2023
Koreas should calm down, seek exit strategy
The situation on the Korean Peninsula is about to come to a head.
On Thursday, North Korea said it would immediately resume all military measures halted under a 2018 inter-Korean agreement.
Pyongyang’s move came hours after Seoul suspended part of the tension reduction deal following the North’s launch of a military spy satellite, effectively terminating the five-year accord.
If South Korea responds in kind, it will lead to the formal demise of the Sept. 19 Agreement. What will come next? Accidental clashes could occur in the Demilitarized Zone, or North Korea might be tempted to provoke the South in limited ways.
Unlike its predecessors, the Yoon Suk Yeol government will strike back. The Yoon administration has few other options, as it has repeatedly stressed eye-for-an-eye responses. Like the U.S. administration under Donald Trump, there are no adults among Yoon’s aides. Worst-case scenarios beyond that are horrifying to think about.
Now is the time for the two Koreas to regain their cool and seek an exit strategy. Hawks question until when should the South endure the North’s provocations. Strictly speaking, however, the firing of a spy satellite had little to do with the agreement. For the South, it was like the proverbial “slap in the face when one wants to cry.” Hardliners in Seoul have called for nullifying the accord, citing Pyongyang’s unilateral violations.
New Defense Minister Shin Won-sik said at the National Assembly that North Korea violated the accord 3,500 times over the past five years. He was referring to the North’s twice-daily deployment of coastal artillery. However, North Korea’s provocations, totaling 228 under the 2008-13 Lee Myung-bak administration and 108 in the 2013-17 Park Geun-hye administration, plunged to five during the 2017-22 Moon Jae-in administration that signed the accord.
The hawkish defense chief alleged that Israel’s failure to prevent Hamas’ surprise attack was due to a surveillance failure. We do not know whether the Middle East rivals have their version of the Sept. 19 Agreement. Still, experts agree Israel’s intelligence failure was not a problem of gathering information but analyzing it. It was more of a political problem than a military one due to the government’s one-sided rule and national division.
Shin must know that the U.S. government would not have endorsed the 2018 deal had it thought it would cause problems in surveilling the North.
Even now, Washington might not want the agreement to go up in smoke. The U.S. faces suspicions about its intention and ability to lead the free world due to the two ongoing wars in Europe and the Middle East. A third conflict in Asia would be the last thing it wants to get involved in.
In contrast, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un perceives, or misperceives, the current global situation as favorable for his reclusive regime. Kim, who has given up on improving ties with the U.S. since his abortive summit with Trump in 2019, is reclaiming the North’s presence in the wake of the Russian-Ukrainian war. Kim welcomes the new Cold War.
Since South Korea regained its democracy about three decades ago, its relationship with North Korea has gone up and down under progressive and conservative presidents. Progressive leaders went all out to maintain peace and co-prosperity on this divided peninsula. They had to fight with and persuade all obstructors — hawks within and outside the nation and North Korea itself. When conservatives took power, however, everything went back to square one. Tension replaced reconciliation.
This seems to be another such moment. Ripping up the inter-Korean military accord will remove the last safety device. Koreans must think about who will benefit most from their return to seven decades ago.
There are groups wanting to maintain some degree of tension on this peninsula rather than allow a drastic change in the status quo, even fanning conflicts. Helping them are hawks in both Koreas. Strong and well-prepared doves must prevail again, replacing chickenhawks.
Koreans should, and can, pick such leaders next year and three and a half years later.
The Korea Times · November 23, 2023
12. Seoul-Warsaw axis
South Korea is a partner in the Arsenal of Democracy but Mr. Burton is not impressed.
Excerpts:
One purpose of President Yoon Suk Yeol’s globe-trotting trips this year, including to the United Arab Emirates, Vietnam, Lithuania, Indonesia and India, is to tout South Korean military sales.
But South Korea’s emergence as a global arms dealer carries with it political and strategic implications. Closer identification and cooperation with NATO countries, including selling arms to them, runs the risk of South Korea becoming entangled in what is shaping up as a new Cold War.
Yoon is promoting “values diplomacy” in supporting the U.S. in its growing confrontation against Russia and China. Arms exports look to be a key component of that foreign policy.
While previously more than half of South Korean arms exports went to other Asian countries, including the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia, the bulk will now go to global “hot spots” in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Such deals imply future military cooperation between Seoul and its defense customers in what is becoming a more dangerous world.
Seoul-Warsaw axis
The Korea Times · November 22, 2023
Arms exports have deep geopolitical implications
By John Burton
Much attention is being paid to North Korea’s arms deals with Russia, including the supply of artillery shells and other equipment to support Moscow’s offensive against Ukraine. But South Korea’s sizable arms sales overseas have drawn less scrutiny.
Seoul views the arms industry as a new source of economic growth as it challenges the dominance of the U.S., Russia, France, China and Germany in weapons exports.
South Korea’s arms sales have already grown by around 70 percent over the past decade and it accounts for 2.4 percent of global arms exports compared to 5.2 percent for China and 4.2 percent for Germany. It now ranks as the world’s ninth-biggest arms exporter but wants to be the fourth largest by 2027. A decline in Russian arms exports due to its war in Ukraine could help South Korea meet that goal.
South Korea is carving out a niche as an arms supplier to other middle powers. Such deals increase Seoul’s diplomatic clout since arms sales are a key coin of the realm in international relations. The downside is that it could potentially drag South Korea into conflicts.
The Ukraine war and shifting geopolitics are providing a new opportunity for South Korea’s arms export push. Last year, it signed deals worth $17 billion, more than twice as much as in 2021. Most of that was accounted for by a $14.5 billion deal with Poland.
The agreement with Warsaw will provide an interesting test case of whether Seoul can avoid potential pitfalls in its weapons diplomacy, since Poland is a NATO frontline state confronting a resurgent Russia.
It is not an exaggeration to say that South Korea could become one of Poland’s biggest arms suppliers. The deal includes a thousand K2 Black Panther tanks, more tanks than in the armies of the U.K., France, Germany and Italy combined. They will replace Poland’s current tank force of nearly 600 aging German Leopard and modified Soviet-era tanks. South Korea will directly deliver 180 tanks, with the rest to be manufactured in Poland under license from 2026.
Also included in the deal are 672 K9 Thunder self-propelled howitzers, with two-thirds to be locally produced, to replace Poland’s current force of 600 mainly Soviet-era artillery units. South Korea will supply 288 K239 Chunmoo multi-rocket launchers that will be mounted on Polish infantry fighting vehicles, larger than its current force of around 175 units.
In addition, Poland will buy 48 Golden Eagle FA-50 fighter jets to replace the MiG-29 and Su-22 fighters it sent to Ukraine since South Korean aircraft are less expensive and can be delivered more quickly than the American F-16 fighter, which is the mainstay of the Polish Air Force.
Seoul and Warsaw see mutual benefits from the mammoth arms deal. It gives a big boost to the South Korean defense industry, while giving Poland access to South Korean technology that will help expand its own arms manufacturing. South Korea is viewed as an attractive partner due to its swift delivery times, competitive prices and attractive credit terms, while its close cooperation with the U.S. military means much of its domestic equipment is of high quality and meets NATO standardization requirements.
Another advantage that South Korea enjoys is that it is seen by some other countries as a more reliable arms supplier than the U.S., whose weapons sales are often subject to political calculations and conditions. That worry has also been a driving force behind the expansion of South Korea’s defense industry itself since Seoul has been concerned about its heavy dependence on American weaponry.
The same factors that led Poland to choose South Korea as a main arms supplier could result in growing orders from around the world. South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean, for example, is one of the finalists, along with Japan, to win a $45 billion deal to supply Canada with new submarines. It also hopes for possible submarine sales to Poland and the Philippines.
One purpose of President Yoon Suk Yeol’s globe-trotting trips this year, including to the United Arab Emirates, Vietnam, Lithuania, Indonesia and India, is to tout South Korean military sales.
But South Korea’s emergence as a global arms dealer carries with it political and strategic implications. Closer identification and cooperation with NATO countries, including selling arms to them, runs the risk of South Korea becoming entangled in what is shaping up as a new Cold War.
Yoon is promoting “values diplomacy” in supporting the U.S. in its growing confrontation against Russia and China. Arms exports look to be a key component of that foreign policy.
While previously more than half of South Korean arms exports went to other Asian countries, including the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia, the bulk will now go to global “hot spots” in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Such deals imply future military cooperation between Seoul and its defense customers in what is becoming a more dangerous world.
John Burton (johnburtonft@yahoo.com), a former Korea correspondent for the Financial Times, is a Washington, D.C.-based journalist and consultant.
The Korea Times · November 22, 2023
13. IAEA chief notes 'strong' water release from N. Korea's Yongbyon nuclear reactor
IAEA chief notes 'strong' water release from N. Korea's Yongbyon nuclear reactor
koreaherald.com · by Yonhap · November 23, 2023
By Yonhap
Published : Nov. 23, 2023 - 09:37
This photo, taken on July 9, shows International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi speaking during his visit to the National Assembly in Seoul. (Yonhap)
The UN nuclear watchdog chief has reported a "strong" water outflow from a reactor's cooling system at North Korea's key nuclear complex in Yongbyon, hinting at the possible test-running of the facility suspected to be designed to produce more fissile material for nuclear bombs.
International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi explained his agency's observation of the light water reactor at the nuclear complex, 100 kilometers north of Pyongyang, during the agency's Board of Governors meeting in Vienna on Wednesday.
"Increased levels of activity have been observed at and near the LWR," he said in the statement posted on the IAEA website. "Since mid-October 2023, a strong water outflow has been observed from the LWR cooling system. These observations are consistent with the commissioning of the LWR."
Grossi highlighted the continuous activities at the Yongbyon complex, reiterating that the "obvious" continuation of the North's nuclear program is a "clear" violation of UN Security Council (UNSC) resolutions.
"The 5MW(e) reactor was shut down for three to four weeks during September and early-October 2023, however there are now indications of operation," he said. "There are also indications of ongoing operation of the reported centrifuge enrichment facility and its annex."
The IAEA chief also stressed that the North's Punggye-ri nuclear test site remains "prepared to support a new nuclear test," which he described as a "cause for serious concern."
He called the North's nuclear activity "deeply regrettable."
"I call upon the DPRK to comply fully with its obligations under relevant UNSC resolutions, to cooperate promptly with the agency in the full and effective implementation of its NPT Safeguards Agreement and to resolve all outstanding issues, especially those that have arisen during the absence of Agency inspectors from the country," he said.
DPRK stands for North Korea's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. NPT is the acronym for the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
"The agency continues to maintain its enhanced readiness to play its essential role in verifying the DPRK's nuclear program," Grossi added. (Yonhap)
koreaherald.com · by Yonhap · November 23, 2023
14. N Korea sends rocket data to Russia for advice: spy agency
No self reliance here. Let's exploit this in our information campaign.
N Korea sends rocket data to Russia for advice: spy agency
Pyongyang provided data, blueprints of its rockets to Moscow that helped Tuesday’s satellite launch
By Lee Jeong-Ho for RFA
2023.11.23
Seoul, South Korea
rfa.org
Russia has likely offered North Korea technological advice for its latest illegal satellite launch, the South’s spy agency said Thursday, weighing in on weeks of speculation of Moscow’s backing that could expedite Pyongyang’s efforts to complete its surveillance system by 2025.
South Korea’s lawmaker Yoo Sang-beom told reporters about the affirmation from the nation’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) following a briefing by the spy agency in the South Korean parliament.
North Korea – which leveraged its strengthened ties with Moscow after a landmark September summit between its leader Kim Jong Un and Russian president Vladimir Putin – had “provided Russia with design blueprints and data related to the first and second stages of a launch vehicle,” Yoo said.
“Russia, in turn, is believed to have shared its analysis results [with North Korea].
“Therefore, the success of this launch vehicle is thought to have been aided by Russian assistance,” the lawmaker added.
Cheon Seong-whun, a former security strategy secretary for South Korea’s presidential office, said Moscow’s help would aid North Korea’s ultimate ambition to launch multiple satellites to spy on the activities of South Korea, as well as its security cooperation with the U.S. and Japan.
“Russia’s technological support clearly aids North Korea in its attempt to secure a complete satellite surveillance system that it vowed to have,” Cheon said. “As Russia is already a nation with such technological capabilities, it would, no doubt, be beneficial to North Korea.”
Kim’s ambition
Last year, Kim announced his plan to deploy “a large number of reconnaissance satellites” by 2025, aimed at monitoring what he termed as “hostile” military activities of the U.S. and its allies, the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) had reported.
That plan is being put into action, as evidenced by the statement from North Korea’s National Aerospace Development Administration on Tuesday, when it declared that the “militarization of space” by the allies was compelling Pyongyang to “further accelerate our self-defensive space development projects, including the development of military reconnaissance satellites.”
The deployment of satellites, Cheon emphasized, is particularly crucial for Pyongyang to maintain its status as a nuclear state. “Satellites play a crucial role in demonstrating nuclear power, as they enable the observation of potential targets,” the former presidential official said.
“In this context, Russia’s role in aiding such satellite development is considered significant.”
North Korea’s illegal satellite launch late Tuesday formally marks its initiation of its space ambition, despite international warnings. Rocket technology can be used for both launching satellites and missiles. For that reason, the U.N. bans North Korea from launching a ballistic rocket, even if it claims to be a satellite launch.
A rocket carrying a spy satellite Malligyong-1 is prepared to be launched, as North Korean government claims, in a location given as North Gyeongsang Province, North Korea in this handout picture obtained by Reuters on November 21, 2023. Credit: KCNA via Reuters
As a countermeasure, Seoul on Wednesday suspended some parts of the 2018 inter-Korean military agreement to resume its surveillance. Following Seoul’s response, Pyongyang declared its complete withdrawal from the 2018 deal, with it pledging to deploy its latest weaponry along the border with South Korea.
The two Koreas had agreed to halt what the other has defined as hostile actions toward one another near the border.
Shortly after the launch, Pyongyang, through a KCNA report, claimed victory for “accurately” launching a spy satellite into orbit, a feat that was corroborated by the South’s NIS.
More Russian support?
Going forward, the NIS believes that there are additional technological realms where Pyongyang could seek Moscow’s assistance. The NIS pointed out that one aspect of North Korea’s technological shortcomings is in solid-fuelled Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM), where development of home-grown technology remains at the infancy stage.
Another could be soliciting further assistance to perfect its surveillance system, in light of a lack of definitive proof that demonstrates the full surveillance capabilities of the North’s satellite system, according to the South Korean spies. They remain skeptical of North Korea’s capabilities despite claims that its satellite is capturing images of a U.S. military airbase in Guam.
Yoo, citing the NIS, also told reporters that the analysis of debris from North Korea’s previous failed reconnaissance satellite launch suggests that the satellite was not advanced enough to be classified as a reconnaissance satellite.
“Given that developing new satellites usually takes around three years, it is believed that North Korea still lacks the ability to conduct effective reconnaissance. Concrete evidence, such as the release of images or videos showing the satellite capturing Guam, is needed to verify its capabilities,” he said.
In August, North Korea failed for the second time to launch a satellite, three months after an unsuccessful first attempt.
A month later, Kim and Putin met at the symbol of Russian space prowess in Russia’s Far East, and vowed to form an “anti-imperialist united front.” Pyongyang often refers to the U.S. and its allies as “imperialists.”
Earlier this month, the NIS reported that since early August, Russia has acquired over 1 million artillery shells from North Korea. This procurement is perceived as a reciprocal gesture for Russia’s assistance in providing technology for Pyongyang’s satellite launch.
Edited by Elaine Chan and Mike Firn.
rfa.org
15. Along the Koreas’ Dangerous Border, the Guardrails Are Now Down
A question that should be asked is whether the CMA actually provided any guardrails? In my assessment they did not because the entire time of the agreement north Korea's forces remained on the DMZ in an offensive posture. There was no reduction to the hostile threat the South faced from the north. And the South's forces were always arrayed in defensive positions. The north was and remains the hostile aggressor.
Also the north scrapped the agreement. The South said it would suspend certain parts of the agreement that affected its defense such as ISR activities in the vicinity of the DMZ, which is the right thing to do.
Along the Koreas’ Dangerous Border, the Guardrails Are Now Down
Pyongyang and Seoul have scrapped a five-year-old agreement meant to reduce the risk of clashes
https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/along-the-koreas-dangerous-border-the-guardrails-are-now-down-33a0c223?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1
By Dasl Yoon
Follow
Nov. 23, 2023 4:49 am ET
South Korean forces conducted drills this week on an island near the demilitarized zone. PHOTO: DEFENSE MINISTRY/ZUMA PRESS
SEOUL—A key symbol of a brief period of detente on the Korean Peninsula half a decade ago is now gone.
This week, North and South Korea suspended an inter-Korean military agreement struck in 2018 to reduce the risk of conflict along the shared border. A liaison office, also dating to that period, was blown up by North Korea in 2020, and any hopes of resurrecting that era’s denuclearization talks have disappeared in a hail of missile launches by Pyongyang.
What’s left is an increasingly belligerent North Korea facing off with a more hawkish government in the South with longstanding guardrails now removed.
The government in Seoul suspended parts of the agreement and said it would resume aerial surveillance along the border after North Korea launched a spy satellite this week. On Thursday, North Korea’s Defense Ministry said it would resume all military activities it had halted under the agreement and vowed it would deploy new weapons along the border.
North Korea has violated the agreement a number of times since denuclearization talks stalled in 2019. Still, the pact provided some protection against escalating tensions in the border region separating the two Koreas. The resumption of live-fire drills and deployment of new troops and weapons could lead to clashes, said Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies.
“To prove they will no longer abide by the military agreement, North Korea will resume live-fire drills, breach the maritime border and continue with its various missile launches, significantly raising the risk of armed conflict in the border region,” Yang said.
A South Korean guard post, in foreground, overlooks the North Korean side of the DMZ. PHOTO: JUNG YEON-JE/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES
The suspension of the agreement signals the end of efforts to halt North Korea’s growing nuclear and missile program and bring Pyongyang back to dialogue, he said.
Tensions between the two Koreas have grown following the election of the conservative government in Seoul and the growing friction between its American ally and North Korea backers Russia and China. Emboldened, Pyongyang has pursued deeper cooperation with Russia and has openly ignored international sanctions.
Before the 2018 pact, North Korea had fired artillery shells at a South Korean island and sank a South Korean vessel with a torpedo attack. North Korean drones crashed near the fortified border after taking photos of military installations. South Korea returned fire on several occasions.
To prevent such incidents, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and South Korea’s then-President Moon Jae-in agreed to create a no-fly zone along the border, establish buffer zones along their maritime boundary and curb military exercises including live drills within 3 miles of the border.
The two Koreas and the U.S.-led United Nations Command also removed firearms and guard posts from a border village where troops from both sides face off every day. South Korea often limited its response to North Korean provocations to warning shots or messages sent over the inter-Korean hotline.
But since conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol took office last year, South Korea has adopted a policy of responding more aggressively to North Korean military action.
South Korean officials said North Korea had violated the agreement dozens of times, flying drones into the South and conducting live-fire drills near the border. Even before taking office, Yoon said he would suspend the pact if provoked by Pyongyang. Ruling-party lawmakers and military officials have repeatedly called for the agreement to be suspended, citing its limits on South Korea’s ability to identify North Korean threats.
On Wednesday, Yoon approved his National Security Council’s decision to restore surveillance operations along the fortified border after North Korea launched its first military satellite into orbit. The satellite, after two prior failures, successfully reached orbit following technical assistance from Russia, South Korean spy-agency officials told lawmakers on Thursday.
South Korea will be held accountable in the case of an “irretrievable clash” between the two Koreas, North Korean state media reported on Thursday. Pyongyang has said its spy-satellite program is essential to defend against military activities by the U.S. and its allies in the region, blaming joint military exercises and the deployment of U.S. strategic assets for escalating tensions.
The pact’s suspension paves the way for an increase in military activity like this week’s South Korean drills on Baengnyeongdo Island. PHOTO: DEFENSE MINISTRY/ZUMA PRESS
The United Nations Security Council bans satellite launches by North Korea, because they are seen as a cover for testing ballistic missile technology. North Korea in recent years has rapidly expanded its weapons program, tested new solid-fuel rocket technology and unveiled new drones.
The two Koreas are chasing independent military-surveillance technology, with North Korea vowing to launch more spy satellites in the near future and South Korea launching its first domestically developed spy satellite Nov. 30 atop a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket.
In September, on the fifth anniversary of the military pact, Moon criticized the Yoon administration’s talk of suspending the agreement. “Abolishing the inter-Korean military agreement would be irresponsible, akin to removing the last safety pin,” the former president said.
On Wednesday, opposition lawmakers and former Moon administration officials said the pact had reduced military tensions significantly in the demilitarized zone and called on the Yoon government to maintain the agreement despite North Korea’s violations.
South Korea’s resumption of aerial surveillance will allow it to track potential surprise attacks from the North, which have become a bigger concern since the Hamas attacks on Israel, said Moon Seong-mook, a retired South Korean brigadier general who was a negotiator at inter-Korean military talks in 2007.
“Until now, South Korea has tried to respect the inter-Korean military agreement,” he said, “but now we are warning of retaliation.”
Write to Dasl Yoon at dasl.yoon@wsj.com
16. China Ignores North Korea’s Provocations at Its Own Risk
Excerpts:
Looking at the longer term, increasing military tensions in Northeast Asia due to North Korea’s armed provocation will pose an obstacle to China’s cooperation with the international community. The United States will strengthen its massive containment network against the China-Russia-North Korea coalition in the Indo-Pacific region to prevent the military provocations of Pyongyang. China could find itself isolated, with its economic growth engine potentially stalling, especially as NATO’s Asia expansion theory gains momentum and China-U.S. hegemonic competition intensifies.
Already, North Korea’s provocations are having an impact. Seoul and Pyongyang signed the 9.19 Military Agreement in 2018 to stop mutual hostilities and establish a buffer zone. However, on November 22, a day after North Korea launched a military spy satellite, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol approved the suspension of the clause forswearing reconnaissance and surveillance activities around the inter-Korean border.
In addition, if nuclear armament proponents gain traction in South Korea and Japan in response to North Korea’s nuclear threat, and a “nuclear domino effect” begins, China will ultimately become the most extraordinary victim. Beijing should acknowledge that Pyongyang has already crossed the red line and take a proactive stance in preventing North Korea’s military threats.
China Ignores North Korea’s Provocations at Its Own Risk
thediplomat.com
China was silent on North Korea’s launch of a military satellite, just as it has kept quiet on rapid advancements in Pyongyang’s missile program. Is a nuclear test next?
By Min-yong Lee
November 22, 2023
Credit: Depositphotos
Poisonous mushrooms are growing quietly behind the deepening shadow of simultaneous international security crises. The war in Ukraine has continued for nearly two years, and Israel, which suffered civilian casualties from Hamas’ attacks on October 7, is engaging in a thorough revenge war that makes little distinction between civilians and combatants. Both conflicts have caused major waves in international politics and the economy.
However, while the world’s attention was focused on Ukraine and Israel, pre-existing threats in the international community were not resolved but worsened. One of these issues is North Korea’s military provocation.
On the evening of November 21, North Korea launched a military spy satellite. According to the North’s state media, the satellite succeeded in entering orbit. North Korea had previously attempted to launch a spy satellite in August, but the effort failed due to a problem with the rocket engine. Neighboring countries are paying attention to how North Korea solved the problem in three months.
South Korea’s military authorities said Russia provided technical advice after the Russia-North Korea summit in September, including dispatching engineers to North Korea.
Pyongyang’s launch of a spy satellite constitutes a violation of United Nations Security Council sanctions against North Korea. In response, neighboring countries such as South Korea, the United States, and Japan immediately condemned North Korea’s provocative actions. However, China, which has the longest border with North Korea, is silent, ignoring the growing threat.
This contrasts with the past, when the Chinese Foreign Ministry expressed regret over North Korea’s satellite launch in 2012. This time, the ministry’s spokesperson said only that China had “noticed” the satellite launch, then seemed to justify the act by adding, “The Korean Peninsula is in today’s situation for a reason.” With only tacit sympathy emanating from China, North Korea is preparing for another armed provocation.
It has been about a year since North Korea reportedly completed preparations for its seventh nuclear test. In April of this year, General Paul LaCamera, the commander of the U.S. Forces in Korea, stated that the technical preparations for North Korea’s upcoming nuclear test had been completed, and all that remained was a decision from top leader Kim Jong Un. If the North successfully miniaturizes nuclear warheads in the next test, there will be an acceleration not only in its intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) development but also in the advancement of tactical nuclear warheads.
North Korea’s willingness to use nuclear weapons has also grown to a worrying level. In September of this year, its nuclear force policy was enacted into law specifying the defensive purposes and the conditions for preemptive nuclear strikes. The law states that a nuclear strike will be automatically initiated if the leadership, including Kim Jong Un, is believed to be in danger. Particularly alarming is the potential use of nuclear weapons due to misperception and misjudgment. This makes the possession of a nuclear arsenal by North Korea, a regime with a closed decision-making structure, a colossal security threat to neighboring countries.
China should be the most vocal about this issue. While the United States aims to thwart Pyongyang’s ICBM development from a homeland defense perspective, China is more likely to suffer the repercussions of North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons. It is time for China to reassess its strategy toward North Korea, given Pyongyang’s maneuver to seek military cooperation with Russia.
Regional powers are keen to eliminate security threats from surrounding forces to establish a security-threat-free zone. However, China has made the strategic error of disregarding Pyongyang’s nuclear development, thereby turning all of Northeast Asia into a danger zone.
The most immediate risk is the exposure of numerous Chinese citizens to radioactive contamination. In 2018, the South Korean government conducted radiation exposure tests on North Korean defectors from Punggye-ri, where the nuclear test site is located. It confirmed genetic mutations in five out of 10 individuals who had been tested. The level of radiation exposure detected in these individuals was significantly higher than the standard threshold for cancer risk.
There have been reports in Hong Kong media that radiation levels have risen in Jilin province in China, which is 70 kilometers away from Punggye-ri. Experts believe that the ground around Punggye-ri may have become significantly weakened after six nuclear tests conducted over the past 25 years, leading to increased radiation leakage.
Looking at the longer term, increasing military tensions in Northeast Asia due to North Korea’s armed provocation will pose an obstacle to China’s cooperation with the international community. The United States will strengthen its massive containment network against the China-Russia-North Korea coalition in the Indo-Pacific region to prevent the military provocations of Pyongyang. China could find itself isolated, with its economic growth engine potentially stalling, especially as NATO’s Asia expansion theory gains momentum and China-U.S. hegemonic competition intensifies.
Already, North Korea’s provocations are having an impact. Seoul and Pyongyang signed the 9.19 Military Agreement in 2018 to stop mutual hostilities and establish a buffer zone. However, on November 22, a day after North Korea launched a military spy satellite, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol approved the suspension of the clause forswearing reconnaissance and surveillance activities around the inter-Korean border.
In addition, if nuclear armament proponents gain traction in South Korea and Japan in response to North Korea’s nuclear threat, and a “nuclear domino effect” begins, China will ultimately become the most extraordinary victim. Beijing should acknowledge that Pyongyang has already crossed the red line and take a proactive stance in preventing North Korea’s military threats.
Poisonous mushrooms are growing quietly behind the deepening shadow of simultaneous international security crises. The war in Ukraine has continued for nearly two years, and Israel, which suffered civilian casualties from Hamas’ attacks on October 7, is engaging in a thorough revenge war that makes little distinction between civilians and combatants. Both conflicts have caused major waves in international politics and the economy.
However, while the world’s attention was focused on Ukraine and Israel, pre-existing threats in the international community were not resolved but worsened. One of these issues is North Korea’s military provocation.
On the evening of November 21, North Korea launched a military spy satellite. According to the North’s state media, the satellite succeeded in entering orbit. North Korea had previously attempted to launch a spy satellite in August, but the effort failed due to a problem with the rocket engine. Neighboring countries are paying attention to how North Korea solved the problem in three months.
South Korea’s military authorities said Russia provided technical advice after the Russia-North Korea summit in September, including dispatching engineers to North Korea.
Pyongyang’s launch of a spy satellite constitutes a violation of United Nations Security Council sanctions against North Korea. In response, neighboring countries such as South Korea, the United States, and Japan immediately condemned North Korea’s provocative actions. However, China, which has the longest border with North Korea, is silent, ignoring the growing threat.
This contrasts with the past, when the Chinese Foreign Ministry expressed regret over North Korea’s satellite launch in 2012. This time, the ministry’s spokesperson said only that China had “noticed” the satellite launch, then seemed to justify the act by adding, “The Korean Peninsula is in today’s situation for a reason.” With only tacit sympathy emanating from China, North Korea is preparing for another armed provocation.
It has been about a year since North Korea reportedly completed preparations for its seventh nuclear test. In April of this year, General Paul LaCamera, the commander of the U.S. Forces in Korea, stated that the technical preparations for North Korea’s upcoming nuclear test had been completed, and all that remained was a decision from top leader Kim Jong Un. If the North successfully miniaturizes nuclear warheads in the next test, there will be an acceleration not only in its intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) development but also in the advancement of tactical nuclear warheads.
North Korea’s willingness to use nuclear weapons has also grown to a worrying level. In September of this year, its nuclear force policy was enacted into law specifying the defensive purposes and the conditions for preemptive nuclear strikes. The law states that a nuclear strike will be automatically initiated if the leadership, including Kim Jong Un, is believed to be in danger. Particularly alarming is the potential use of nuclear weapons due to misperception and misjudgment. This makes the possession of a nuclear arsenal by North Korea, a regime with a closed decision-making structure, a colossal security threat to neighboring countries.
China should be the most vocal about this issue. While the United States aims to thwart Pyongyang’s ICBM development from a homeland defense perspective, China is more likely to suffer the repercussions of North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons. It is time for China to reassess its strategy toward North Korea, given Pyongyang’s maneuver to seek military cooperation with Russia.
Regional powers are keen to eliminate security threats from surrounding forces to establish a security-threat-free zone. However, China has made the strategic error of disregarding Pyongyang’s nuclear development, thereby turning all of Northeast Asia into a danger zone.
The most immediate risk is the exposure of numerous Chinese citizens to radioactive contamination. In 2018, the South Korean government conducted radiation exposure tests on North Korean defectors from Punggye-ri, where the nuclear test site is located. It confirmed genetic mutations in five out of 10 individuals who had been tested. The level of radiation exposure detected in these individuals was significantly higher than the standard threshold for cancer risk.
There have been reports in Hong Kong media that radiation levels have risen in Jilin province in China, which is 70 kilometers away from Punggye-ri. Experts believe that the ground around Punggye-ri may have become significantly weakened after six nuclear tests conducted over the past 25 years, leading to increased radiation leakage.
Looking at the longer term, increasing military tensions in Northeast Asia due to North Korea’s armed provocation will pose an obstacle to China’s cooperation with the international community. The United States will strengthen its massive containment network against the China-Russia-North Korea coalition in the Indo-Pacific region to prevent the military provocations of Pyongyang. China could find itself isolated, with its economic growth engine potentially stalling, especially as NATO’s Asia expansion theory gains momentum and China-U.S. hegemonic competition intensifies.
Already, North Korea’s provocations are having an impact. Seoul and Pyongyang signed the 9.19 Military Agreement in 2018 to stop mutual hostilities and establish a buffer zone. However, on November 22, a day after North Korea launched a military spy satellite, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol approved the suspension of the clause forswearing reconnaissance and surveillance activities around the inter-Korean border.
In addition, if nuclear armament proponents gain traction in South Korea and Japan in response to North Korea’s nuclear threat, and a “nuclear domino effect” begins, China will ultimately become the most extraordinary victim. Beijing should acknowledge that Pyongyang has already crossed the red line and take a proactive stance in preventing North Korea’s military threats.
Authors
Guest Author
Min-yong Lee
Prof. Min-yong Lee is a visiting professor at Sookmyung Women's University.
thediplomat.com
17. S Korea and Boeing to counter N Korea's drone threat
Excerpts:
Kim says that while South Korean officials mentioned that deterring North Korea’s drone incursions is a goal, they have not mentioned whether South Korea’s deterrence approach will be one of denial or punishment.
She notes that a deterrence-by-denial approach against North Korea would be difficult, as it is unlikely for South Korea to intercept the majority of North Korean drones given South Korea’s limitations in radar technology.
She also says that a small number of kamikaze drones that elude South Korea’s defenses could cause substantial damage and inflict psychological costs on the South Korean population. She notes it is futile to try to convince North Korea to stop sending drones over the border.
Kim also says a deterrence-by-punishment approach would risk military escalation with North Korea. She says South Korea, without a clear deterrence mechanism, may engage in a tit-for-tat without strategic merit.
According to Yahoo Finance, as of November 22, Boeing’s shares trading at US$219.91, with a market capitalization of US$133.04 billion. Boeing’s stock has been volatile due to engineering issues and a pandemic-driven decline in sales.
S Korea and Boeing to counter N Korea's drone threat
Seoul’s tie-up with US defense contractor comes in response to Pyongyang’s asymmetric drone advantage and recent infiltrations
By GABRIEL HONRADA
NOVEMBER 23, 2023
asiatimes.com · by Gabriel Honrada · November 23, 2023
South Korea and Boeing are joining forces to develop high-altitude, long-endurance (HALE) unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) in response to North Korea’s recent drone infiltrations into South Korean air space.
Yonhap reported this month that South Korea’s arms procurement agency, known as DAPA, plans to collaborate with the US defense contractor on the new drone research project.
The Yonhap report noted that both sides signed a memorandum of understanding in April and met at the company’s headquarters in the state of Washington to collaborate on the project.
The report also mentions that DAPA’s goal is to have Korean companies take over the production of advanced aircraft while Boeing contributes its design and unmanned technology.
Yonhap also says that the South Korean military and Boeing have agreed to collaborate on the upkeep, repair, enhancement and modernization of Boeing aircraft utilized by the military. They have yet to finalize which models will be involved in the project, the report said.
South Korea is bolstering its drone capabilities in response to North Korea’s recent drone advancements, pushing an asymmetric edge over the former’s superior military capabilities.
In September, The Korea Times reported that the South Korean military created a new command center for drone operations at Pocheon in response to UAV threats after the infiltration of a North Korean drone last year.
According to the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), the drone operations command is a military unit that will be under the direct supervision of the JCS chairman. It is the first combined combat unit of its kind, consisting of the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps.
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“Should the enemy launch another provocation against our country, we will show a prompt and overwhelming response to make it clear that their actions will lead to a devastating result,” said General Lee Bo-hyung of the Army Aviation Command, the appointed commander of the newly created unit.
The same month, The Warzone reported that the South Korean military had showcased a stealthy-shaped flying wing drone at a military parade in Seoul. The Warzone says a small UAV can provide covert, robust surveillance and monitoring capabilities. It could also perform electronic warfare assaults, kinetic strikes or act as a kamikaze drone/loitering munition to strike targets directly, the report said.
The Warzone notes that the five flying wing drones in the parade were each mounted on top of a 4×4 Kia Light Tactical Vehicle. The source says the setup was specifically for the event, as the drones have landing gear designed for traditional runways.
The Warzone says it is uncertain whether the images depict models or actual flying drones, but they appear to be the latter. It also notes that the drones have protective covers over their engine intakes on top of their fuselages and the pitot tubes extending from the center of their noses.
The drone’s design is comparable to a smaller model known as the Kaori-X that Korean Air’s Aerospace Division has worked on for several years and tested in 2015.
However, it says that this drone has a different wing shape, known as a “cranked kite” design, that resembles the US X-47B, which is better suited for longer flights at slower speeds than a more traditional delta wing design.
Aside from infiltrating drones into South Korea, North Korea has also substantially improved its surveillance capabilities, adding urgency to South Korea’s drive to enhance its capabilities in the area.
This month, The Korea Times reported that on Tuesday North Korea launched a satellite for military spying purposes on South Korea. The launch comes after two unsuccessful attempts earlier this year.
The Korea Times says South Korea’s JCS detected the launch from the Tongchang-ri area on North Korea’s northwest coast at approximately 10:43 pm, passing over the waters west of the border island of Baengyeong.
It notes that the JCS did not provide additional information, such as whether the satellite was successfully separated and placed into orbit for the three-stage rocket.
While South Korea has a solid manufacturing base and leads in semiconductor technology that enables it to be a potential leader in military drone development, it faces strategic challenges in getting its drone program up to speed.
In an article this August for The National Interest, Lami Kim notes that South Korea’s approach has focused mainly on technology and weapons, largely disregarding operational concepts and doctrines. Kim notes that South Korea’s lack of a clear drone strategy and operational concepts poses questions on how it will meet its strategic goals.
Kim says that while South Korean officials mentioned that deterring North Korea’s drone incursions is a goal, they have not mentioned whether South Korea’s deterrence approach will be one of denial or punishment.
She notes that a deterrence-by-denial approach against North Korea would be difficult, as it is unlikely for South Korea to intercept the majority of North Korean drones given South Korea’s limitations in radar technology.
She also says that a small number of kamikaze drones that elude South Korea’s defenses could cause substantial damage and inflict psychological costs on the South Korean population. She notes it is futile to try to convince North Korea to stop sending drones over the border.
Kim also says a deterrence-by-punishment approach would risk military escalation with North Korea. She says South Korea, without a clear deterrence mechanism, may engage in a tit-for-tat without strategic merit.
According to Yahoo Finance, as of November 22, Boeing’s shares trading at US$219.91, with a market capitalization of US$133.04 billion. Boeing’s stock has been volatile due to engineering issues and a pandemic-driven decline in sales.
asiatimes.com · by Gabriel Honrada · November 23, 2023
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
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