Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Please note that I may be off the net for a couple of days as I am having cataract surgery in both eyes today.

Quotes of the Day:

“He that cannot reason is a fool. He that will not is a bigot. He that dare not is a slave.”

– Andrew Carnegie

“Change your opinions, keep your principles, change your leaves, keep intact your roots.”

– Victor Hugo

“In individuals, insanity is rare: but in groups, parties, nations, and epochs, it is the rule.”

– Friedrich Nietzsche

1. How Trump's return puzzles North Korea's elite

2. Ukraine’s Defense Minister Heads to South Korea With Weapons Wish List

3. No indication North Korean troops are moving into Ukraine, Pentagon says

4. Trump’s North Korea policy could pose ‘traumatic’ risk for South Korea

5. How Ukraine is preparing for North Korean defectors

6. Trump is urged to include South Korea in strategic meetings about Taiwan

7. “Trump’s 2nd term will demand more burden from Korea… US-Korea-Japan cooperation to check public opinion will continue”

8. Putin and Kim could meet to cement Russia-North Korea axis

9. Russia issues warning to South Korea about sending arms to Ukraine

10. Will South Korea heed Ukraine’s call for weapons aid amid Trump’s win, Russia warning?

11. G7 urges China to oppose North Korea-Russia military cooperation

12. Alarming Safety Conditions at North Korea's Flood Recovery Sites: Workers Dangling in Mid-air Like Circus Performers, No Rest Despite Harsh Weather

13. Yoon calls for robust military readiness against growing N. Korean threats

14. Ukraine's special envoy expected to meet Yoon as early as Wednesday: sources

15. Trump Returns to ‘Maximum Pressure’ as Era of Biden Alliances Ends

16. Presidential office worries over impact of Trump's proposed tariffs on Korean firms in Canada, Mexico

17. Trump's choice (Alex Wong)

18. N. Korea orders market crackdown to combat 'capitalist elements'

19. N. Korea expels money changers amid currency crackdown

20. N. Korea's failed whistleblower system: Informants left unprotected

21. Trump team considers 'direct talks' with N. Korea's Kim: report

1. How Trump's return puzzles North Korea's elite

From a member of the north Korean diaspora who experienced the inner workings of the regime.

Conclusion:

The next four years under Trump's leadership will undoubtedly shape North Korea's future and could redefine the security dynamics in Northeast Asia. Kim Jong-un's regime, North Korean officials, and the people of North Korea will all watch closely, aware that the actions taken in Washington may have life-altering implications. As someone who once witnessed North Korea's inner workings, I urge the U.S. administration to approach North Korea with cautious optimism, balancing diplomacy with unwavering resolve. Only by understanding the intricacies of the regime and preparing for the worst can we hope to steer the Korean Peninsula toward a future of genuine peace and stability.

Voices Nov. 22, 2024 / 3:18 PM

How Trump's return puzzles North Korea's elite

https://www.upi.com/Voices/2024/11/22/donald-trump-return-puzzle-north-korea-elite/5191732303655/

By Ri Jong Ho

Then-president Donald Trump (R) meets North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at the Korean Demilitarized Zone in 2019. White House Photo by Shealah Craighead/UPI | License Photo

Nov. 22 (UPI) -- As news of Donald Trump's re-election begins to ripple through North Korea's top echelons, surprise and curiosity are inevitable reactions among its high-ranking officials. How could a former president return to office after being out of power? For those used to the rigid succession of power in North Korea's single-family dynasty, this democratic turn of events would be both puzzling and thought-provoking. In a country where political power is synonymous with the Kim family's rule, the notion that a president could lose an election, regroup, and come back to power seems almost otherworldly.

For North Korea's senior officials, knowledge of global events, including U.S. presidential elections, comes through highly controlled channels. Unlike ordinary North Koreans, who may never hear about Trump's victory, officials at the Central Committee, the Cabinet, and department director levels receive this information through confidential documents known as 'reference newspapers,' which are distributed in secret. The Party's highest leaders also attend restricted briefing sessions under Kim Jong-un's supervision. It's a tightly managed system, ensuring that only a select few are informed about events beyond North Korea's borders.

When I was still in North Korea, I first heard of George W. Bush's election in the early 2000s through one of these reference newspapers. The concept of democracy, where presidents are chosen by popular vote and serve limited terms, seemed remarkable. At that time, as is likely the case now, many officials expressed fascination and skepticism. The idea that leadership could be anything other than hereditary, or that a leader could be publicly scrutinized and replaced was hard for us to fathom, trained as we were to accept that only the Kim family could rule North Korea. Even so, some officials could not deny there was an advantage to a system where fresh leaders could bring new perspectives and ideas.

The structure of the U.S. election is strikingly different from North Korea's. In the United States, leaders are held accountable through the voting process, a stark contrast to North Korea's ironclad system of succession, where Kim Il-sung's descendants rule unchallenged. To North Korean officials, the idea of a former president being ousted and then winning back the support of his people would be seen as something akin to a political miracle -- particularly when compared to their lifelong pledge of loyalty to the Kim family.

It is natural for North Korean officials to compare their political system with the U.S. system when exposed to this information. Trump's return, following a brief hiatus from power, stands in stark contrast to the rigidity of North Korea's succession structure. Some officials might even privately wonder about the merits of a system where a leader's hold on power is not absolute and can be challenged by the people's voice.

Yet, despite any fleeting admiration for the democratic process, these officials remain pragmatic. North Korea's nuclear ambitions, embedded in the state's core ideology and championed by Kim Jong-un, are unlikely to change under any circumstances. While Trump's re-election may lead to renewed U.S.-North Korea negotiations, officials know better than to expect substantial changes. The high hopes North Korean officials once had during previous summits with Trump --hopes that sanctions might be eased or lifted -- were swiftly dashed when nothing materialized. By now, they understand that the presence of nuclear weapons makes it unlikely that the international community will ease sanctions. Even if Kim meets Trump again, the officials likely anticipate that the same stalemate will ensue, as long as Kim refuses to abandon his nuclear arsenal.

The broader international landscape adds further complexity. Trump's recent statements about ending the Russia-Ukraine war have sparked speculation about a potential shift in North Korea's relationship with Russia. Only recently, North Korea and Russia signed a "Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement," marking a deepening of their military cooperation. If Trump successfully negotiates an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it could result in a decrease in North Korean-Russian military cooperation. Such a development would reshape Northeast Asia's security landscape, impacting not only North Korea but also its complex relations with Russia and China.

This evolving situation may push North Korean officials to consider adjustments in their foreign strategy. China has historically viewed North Korea's close relationship with Russia with caution, even disdain. Should North Korea lose Russia's support, it may find itself gravitating back toward Beijing, rekindling the delicate alliance that has long defined its relationship with China.

While North Korean officials are well aware of the precariousness of their position, Kim Jong-un likely views Trump's re-election as an opportunity to leverage his diplomatic approach to the United States. Trump's foreign policy aims, which may include the prestigious goal of a Nobel Peace Prize, would require him to make tangible progress on issues like denuclearization. For Kim, this could be the moment to feign cooperation, possibly offering a few concessions or outdated nuclear facilities in exchange for sanction relief and a guarantee of regime security. This, in turn, could allow Kim to sustain his nuclear program while reaping significant benefits from the United States.

If Trump and Kim were to reach such an agreement, it would carry significant risks for the stability of the Korean Peninsula and the wider Northeast Asian region. A deal that appeases both leaders' immediate interests but leaves North Korea's nuclear capability largely intact would create a lingering threat to regional security. Such a scenario could compel South Korea to seek independent security measures, amplifying instability across Northeast Asia. Meanwhile, North Korea's population would continue to suffer, deprived of both freedom and economic opportunity under an oppressive regime focused solely on sustaining its nuclear ambitions.

The alternative scenario is that Trump uses his remaining time to pursue a genuine path toward North Korean denuclearization. If he were to achieve full denuclearization, it could represent a diplomatic breakthrough of historic proportions, potentially securing peace for the Korean Peninsula and liberation for North Korea's people. This path, however, demands not only Trump's resolve but also sustained international collaboration and pressure, with the South Korean government and the U.S. State Department playing pivotal roles in consistently conveying the risks posed by a nuclear North Korea.

The next four years under Trump's leadership will undoubtedly shape North Korea's future and could redefine the security dynamics in Northeast Asia. Kim Jong-un's regime, North Korean officials, and the people of North Korea will all watch closely, aware that the actions taken in Washington may have life-altering implications. As someone who once witnessed North Korea's inner workings, I urge the U.S. administration to approach North Korea with cautious optimism, balancing diplomacy with unwavering resolve. Only by understanding the intricacies of the regime and preparing for the worst can we hope to steer the Korean Peninsula toward a future of genuine peace and stability.

Ri Jong Ho is a former senior North Korean economic official who served under all three leaders of the Kim family regime. His most recent role was in Dalian, China, where he headed the Korea Daehung Trading Corporation, overseen by the clandestine Office 39 under the direct control of the ruling Kim family. Before his assignment in Dalian, Jong Ho held pivotal positions, including Executive Director of the Daehung General Bureau of the North Korean Workers' Party, a role equivalent to Vice-Minister rank in the North Korean party-state. Subsequently, he was appointed Chairman of the Korea Kumgang Economic Development Group (KKG) under the North Korean Defense Committee by Kim Jong Il. Jong Ho is a recipient of the Hero of Labor Award, the highest civilian honor in North Korea. Following a series of brutal purges by Kim Jong Un, he defected with his family to South Korea in late 2014. Currently, Jong Ho resides in the greater Washington D.C. area.

The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author.

2. Ukraine’s Defense Minister Heads to South Korea With Weapons Wish List

I hope our partner in the Arsenal of Democracy will step up and provide lethal aid to Ukraine.

Ukraine’s Defense Minister Heads to South Korea With Weapons Wish List

kyivpost.com · by Kyiv Post · November 26, 2024

The delegation plans to meet South Korean officials “as early as Wednesday” with a request for anti-air missiles and artillery systems.

by Kyiv Post | November 26, 2024, 2:35 pm

Ukraine's Defence Minister Rustem Umerov addresses a joint press conference with his Lithuanian counterpart at the Defence Ministry in Vilnius, Lithuania on November 23, 2024. (Photo by Petras Malukas / AFP)

China

A Ukrainian delegation led by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov is expected to visit South Korea to request weapons aid, according to a source cited by the South China Morning Post.

The delegation plans to meet South Korean officials “as early as Wednesday” with a request for anti-air missiles and artillery systems, the source said, speaking anonymously. South Korea’s defense ministry declined to comment on the visit.

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Follow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official.

Currently, South Korea limits its support for Ukraine to non-lethal aid, such as gas masks and field rations, adhering to its longstanding policy of not supplying lethal weapons to active conflict zones.

Opposition lawmakers have warned of the potential impeachment of South Korea’s defense minister if the government approves military aid for Ukraine without parliamentary consent.

Doo Jin-ho, a research fellow at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, suggested that while South Korea is a global leader in conventional weapons production, it is likely to proceed cautiously.

“South Korea will listen to Ukraine’s request but is unlikely to make a clear commitment to providing weapons,” he said. “The government is expected to adopt a wait-and-see approach, monitoring Russia’s military ties with North Korea before deciding its next steps.”

Doo attributed Seoul’s hesitation to multiple factors, including threats from Moscow, domestic opposition, and the potential impact of Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Kyiv Says Russia Shot Dead Five Surrendered Soldiers

The regional prosecutor’s office stated that Russian soldiers captured them, forced them to leave the shelter unarmed, and lie on the ground before shooting them.

“There seems to be a shift in tone following the US election,” Doo added, noting South Korea’s cautious recalibration of its policy.

Moscow has warned South Korea that supplying weapons to Ukraine would “fully destroy” bilateral relations. “We hope Seoul will prioritize long-term national interests over short-term opportunistic considerations prompted from outside,” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko said Sunday.

Other experts expressed skepticism about South Korea fulfilling Ukraine’s request. Lee Sung-won of the Sejong Institute suggested Seoul might align its policy with a potential Trump administration, while Cho Han-bum of the Korea Institute for National Unification said Moscow appears keen to preserve ties with Seoul while cautioning against crossing the line by providing lethal aid to Ukraine.

South Korea, which recently signaled a potential shift toward providing arms to Ukraine, may hold back as US President-elect Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House with plans to negotiate an end to the war, Bloomberg reported.

Historically, Seoul has banned sending lethal weapons to conflict zones. However, reports of North Korean troops supporting Russia led President Yoon Suk-yeol to reconsider.

In October, South Korean intelligence confirmed North Korean troop deployments to Russia’s Kursk region, prompting Yoon to warn that if North Korean forces continue to support Russia, his country may increase its support for Ukraine.

“Depending on the level of North Korean involvement, we will gradually adjust our support strategy in phases,” Yoon told a press conference in Seoul. “This means we are not ruling out the possibility of providing weapons.”

Yoon added that his office would closely monitor developments concerning North Korean troop activities and indicated that any decision to provide weapons to Kyiv would initially focus on defensive systems.

According to him, defensive weapons would be its priority if Seoul moves forward with weapons support.

Trump’s potential diplomatic efforts, however, could push Seoul to revert to non-intervention.

Ukraine is seeking South Korea’s large stockpile of 155mm artillery shells amid these developments.

kyivpost.com · by Kyiv Post · November 26, 2024

3. No indication North Korean troops are moving into Ukraine, Pentagon says

Yet.

No indication North Korean troops are moving into Ukraine, Pentagon says

kyivindependent.com · by Dmytro Basmat · November 26, 2024

The United States does not have any indication that there is a presence of North Korean troops in Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine, Pentagon Deputy Press Secretary Sabrina Singh said on Nov. 25.

"What we're seeing is that (North Korean troops are) positioned around the Kursk region, not moving into Ukraine at the moment," Singh said during a press briefing.

The Pentagon's statement clarifies reports of approximately 11,000 North Korean troops amassing in Russia's Kursk Oblast, training alongside Russian troops in the fight against Ukraine. A Pentagon spokesperson said on Nov. 13 that some North Korean troops have already been deployed to fight together with Russian forces.

A source with Ukraine's General Staff also indicated to Reuters on Nov. 23 that the majority of North Korean soldiers were finalizing training.

In recent months, Russia has focused on regaining territory lost in the country's Kursk Oblast following a surprise Ukrainian incursion into the region in August. According to the source in Ukraine's General Staff, Ukraine has lost over 40 percent of the territory it previously gained in Kursk Oblast due to Russian counterattacks.

NATO allies believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin is aiming to recapture territory lost in Kursk Oblast before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20, the Telegraph reported, hoping to gain leverage in future peace negotiations.

Addressing unconfirmed reports that upwards of 500 North Korean troops have been killed in Kursk, Singh said that the U.S. could not independently confirm the casualties.

"What we've said before is that they're in (the Kursk) region and certainly poised to engage the Ukrainians in combat. But I can't confirm those reports that there have been casualties yet."

Moscow and Pyongyang signed a strategic partnership agreement in June, pledging to provide military support to one another if either country comes under attack.

On Nov. 25, Reuters reported, citing researchers at the U.S.-based James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, that North Korea is expanding a key weapons production complex that assembles KN-23 short-range ballistic missiles used by Russia against Ukraine.

North Korea expands plant producing missiles used by Russia against Ukraine, Reuters reports

North Korea is expanding a key weapons production complex that assembles KN-23 short-range ballistic missiles used by Russia against Ukraine, Reuters reported on Nov.25.

The Kyiv IndependentKateryna Denisova

kyivindependent.com · by Dmytro Basmat · November 26, 2024

4. Trump’s North Korea policy could pose ‘traumatic’ risk for South Korea

The buried lede: A "Trump risk team."

Excerpt:

“We don’t think President-elect Trump respects the NPT or other multilateral agreements,” said Ha Kyoung-seok, part of the INSS’s new “Trump Risk Team.” “He has not explicitly or publicly expressed a position on the NPT, as that would limit his future movements.”

Trump’s North Korea policy could pose ‘traumatic’ risk for South Korea

Seoul faces critical choices if U.S. recognizes North's nuclear status

washingtontimes.com · by Andrew Salmon

Premium

By - The Washington Times - Monday, November 25, 2024

SEOUL, South Korea — South Korea could face some critical strategic choices if incoming U.S. President Donald Trump resumes his diplomatic outreach to North Korea and recognizes Pyongyang as a nuclear state, top security analysts say.

In a briefing to reporters Monday, the head of South Korea’s Institute for National Security Strategy said U.S. recognition of North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction programs would be “traumatic.” The INSS, a civilian think tank, is affiliated with the government’s National Intelligence Service.

The analysts made clear that a second Trump administration offers possibilities as well as risks for the divided peninsula, depending on the approaches of Mr. Trump’s national security and diplomatic teams. The first Trump administration’s demand that North Korea give up its nuclear programs in exchange for economic aid and sanctions relief led to a breakdown of Mr. Trump’s diplomacy with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

“If the U.S. approves North Korea as a nuclear state in any form, that would be really traumatic for South Korea,” said INSS President Han Suk-hee. “For the past 30 to 40 years, South Korea has been in cooperation with the U.S.-led denuclearization and nonproliferation regimes. … If the U.S. approves North Korea as a nuclear state, South Korea will be a victim.”

For years, North Korea watchers have maintained that the Kim regime will never abandon atomic arms because it considers them a last guarantee of national survival. That position has been reinforced multiple times by Mr. Kim and is written into the national constitution.

Mr. Kim has yet to comment directly on the American election, but he hinted at a tough line in case the Trump administration plans to renew security talks.

“We have already gone as far as possible with the United States with negotiations,” Mr. Kim told a defense exposition in Pyongyang last week. “And what we ended up confirming was not a superpower’s will for coexistence, but a thorough position based on force and an unchangeable invasive and hostile policy” toward North Korea.

The United States has consistently refused to acknowledge this status, likely because it would be an impossible sell to American voters. Virtually all high-level U.S. contacts with Pyongyang have been predicated on the North renouncing its nuclear weapons programs.

Some call that approach a recipe for failure and argue in favor of officially recognizing North Korea’s weapons program. A shift away from total denuclearization to arms control would give talks higher chances of success, these experts say.

Mr. Trump has made clear his distaste for multinational organizations and agreements. His stance toward the U.N.-led Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, or NPT, is unclear.

“We don’t think President-elect Trump respects the NPT or other multilateral agreements,” said Ha Kyoung-seok, part of the INSS’s new “Trump Risk Team.” “He has not explicitly or publicly expressed a position on the NPT, as that would limit his future movements.”

Mr. Trump has talked up his extraordinary personal relationship with Mr. Kim, but he humiliated the North Korean leader by walking out of their second face-to-face summit in Hanoi in 2019 when talks reached an impasse.

SPECIAL COVERAGE: Trump Transition

That cost Mr. Kim a massive amount of “face” with his elites and broader populace. Since 2019, U.S.-North Korean relations have been primarily frozen, with minimal contact under President Biden.

Bigger carrots

Pyongyang’s global footing is firmer than ever with Mr. Kim’s new ally, Russian President Vladimir Putin. North Korea has sent troops and weapons to aid Russia’s war in Ukraine in exchange for economic, security and diplomatic aid.

South Korean security experts said Mr. Trump must dangle a larger carrot to lure Mr. Kim into new talks. That carrot, in turn, could spark soul-searching in South Korea over its security policies and its ability to rely on the U.S. nuclear umbrella to protect it in the long run.

“To ignite active discussions, Trump has to meet [Mr. Kim] and approve North Korea as a nuclear state,” said Mr. Han. “If that happens, South Korean people will approve and agree on our own nuclear weapons system.”

Polls in recent years have found deep support among South Koreans for a nuclear weapon. Conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol has mentioned it but has been assuaged by the Biden administration’s extension of the U.S. nuclear umbrella and establishment of a bilateral nuclear-sharing group.

Whether the unconventional Mr. Trump would agree to a South Korean exit from the nonproliferation treaty to become the world’s next nuclear state is a big question.

Opportunities

Along with the challenges, a second Trump administration represents an opportunity for Seoul.

In his first call with Mr. Yoon, the U.S. president-elect raised the issue of maintaining and repairing U.S. warships in South Korea’s world-class shipyards.

Mr. Ha said that the containment of China is central to Mr. Trump’s Indo-Pacific strategy and that he will be “open to all options.” In that strategy, South Korea has an ace in the hole: It offers the U.S. military its closest geographical posting to mainland China.

The 28,000 American soldiers in South Korea have left positions facing North Korea and redeployed to bases lining the Yellow Sea Coast south of Seoul. U.S. Army and Air Force garrisons also have maritime access via a South Korean naval base.

Though the U.S. troops in South Korea are officially tasked with deterring a North Korean attack, the command’s current footprint offers unrestricted radar, aerial, naval and direct-fire access to crucial naval shipyards and naval bases on China’s eastern seaboard.

Mr. Trump is a proponent of more defense spending by U.S. allies. During his first term, his demand for more funding for U.S. troops in Japan and South Korea raised tensions. In his second, South Korea might be able to use its geostrategic position to its advantage.

The Trump administration is “likely to use U.S. Forces Korea as a critical component of its China containment strategy,” said Mr. Han. “This underscores the need for South Korea to pursue de-risking strategies and explore new approaches.”

Mr. Ha expects Mr. Trump to get along well with Mr. Yoon, who has focused on improving relations with Japan. That has boosted a long-held U.S. hope of upgrading the trilateral defense relationship.

“There are high expectations in the U.S. about [Mr. Yoon],” Mr. Ha said. “Many persons say, in Asia, there was Shinzo Abe in Trump’s first term, and there is Yoon Suk Yeol during his second term.” Abe, Japan’s longest-serving prime minister, boosted Japan’s defenses and forged a close relationship with Mr. Trump.

Mr. Yoon has reportedly resumed playing golf after an eight-year hiatus to cultivate relations with the U.S. president-elect.

“Making intimate and personal relations by playing golf can be an important diplomatic route,” Mr. Ha said.

Beyond the security domain, economic relations could be tense. Mr. Trump has promised new tariffs on imports from adversaries and allies alike, and the U.S. is the largest single market for South Korean exports.

Mr. Trump “is likely to separate security and economy,” said Go Myong-hyun, another INSS researcher. “Japan and South Korea have trade surpluses with the U.S., and President-elect Trump may want to focus on this.”

• Andrew Salmon can be reached at asalmon@washingtontimes.com.

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washingtontimes.com · by Andrew Salmon

5. How Ukraine is preparing for North Korean defectors

I hope with the help of South Korea and the north Korean diaspora. Perhaps the Ukraine MINDEF will be cooridaint assistance during his upcoming visit to Seoul.

There is a significant PSYOP opportunity here for the ROK/US alliance if only they will exploit it.

How Ukraine is preparing for North Korean defectors

Newsweek · by Ellie Cook · November 24, 2024

"If you do not want to die in the war," the Ukrainian government-backed hotline, "I Want To Live," proclaims in large letters on its homepage, then they are the ones to contact.

Established for Russian soldiers to surrender and get themselves out of Moscow's ranks, the hotline is preparing for North Korean soldiers to reach out for the first time.

The "I Want To Live" project isn't expecting a "massive" wave of messages or calls from North Korean soldiers, but is anticipating a few fighters drafted into front-line clashes to make contact, Vitalii, a spokesperson for the hotline, told Newsweek.

None of the thousands of soldiers sent from North Korea to Russian soil have contacted the project yet, Vitalii said.

North Korean soldiers parade on October 10, 2015, in Pyongyang, North Korea. South Korean, U.S. and Ukrainian intelligence have indicated that upward of 10,000 North Korean soldiers have been sent to the western Russian region... North Korean soldiers parade on October 10, 2015, in Pyongyang, North Korea. South Korean, U.S. and Ukrainian intelligence have indicated that upward of 10,000 North Korean soldiers have been sent to the western Russian region of Kursk to support Moscow's war effort. AP Photo/Wong Maye-E

South Korean, U.S. and Ukrainian intelligence have indicated that upward of 10,000 North Korean soldiers have been sent to the western Russian region of Kursk to support Moscow's war effort. Ukraine launched an offensive into the region in early August, andstill holds hundreds of square miles of Russian territory.

Pyongyang's fighters are thought to be kitted out in Russian garb and have been taken into the Kremlin's existing military forces.

Russia has not confirmed or denied the presence of North Korean troops in Kursk, but has signed a mutual defense pact with the secretive country's supreme leader, Kim Jong-un. Russian President Vladimir Putin said it was "entirely our own business" how to implement the defense agreement between Moscow and Pyongyang.

North Korea has supplied a significant number of missiles and shipments of munitions to prop up the Kremlin's war effort. A South Korean intelligence official said earlier this week that Russia had provided air-defense equipment and "economic aid in various forms" to North Korea.

U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said on Saturday that he expected to see North Korean soldiers "engaged in combat soon." The State Department confirmed in mid-November that North Korean soldiers were "engaging in combat operations with Russian forces" after undergoing training in how to use drones, artillery, and carry out "basic infantry operations."

Ukraine's Defense Minister, Rustem Umerov, told South Korean media earlier this month that North Korean soldiers had been involved in "small-scale clashes" so far.

The North Korean troops arrived in Russia at a moment when Moscow, like Kyiv, is searching for ways to backfill its military ranks in the face of eye-watering casualty counts. Russia has been steadily advancing in Ukraine's east, but has racked up a high number of casualties in the process, according to numbers coming out of Ukraine.

The "I Want To Live" hotline was quick to launch a social media appeal in Korean more than a month ago. "We appeal to the fighters of the Korean People's Army who were sent to help the Putin regime," the hotline said in a post to messaging app Telegram, using the formal name for North Korea's army.

"You should not die senselessly on foreign soil," the project wrote. "Do not repeat the fate of hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers who will never return home!"

Those who surrender to Ukrainian forces are promised shelter, hot meals and medical care for those who need it.

"It does not matter how many soldiers Pyongyang sends to help Russia, it does not matter in which direction—Ukrainian prisoner of war camps are ready to accept soldiers of any nationality, religion and ideological views," the hotline said.

Extracting each soldier from the fighting is a unique process, Vitalii said. "There are many factors and variables, so I cannot say exactly how we will do it," he said, "but the main thing is the safety of both the surrendered and our units that are being brought to the territory controlled by Ukraine."

Each fighter who reaches out keeps up a constant link with the hotline, Vitalii said. A bespoke evacuation plan is then devised, taking into account the weather conditions, the landscape and which section of the hundreds of miles of front line the soldier is deployed to, he added.

It's not yet clear whether North Korean fighters will be found along other sections of the front line. Andriy Kovalenko, an official with Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council, said earlier this week that an unspecified number of North Korean soldiers were "transferred to the border areas of the Belgorod region."

Belgorod borders Kursk, sitting across from Ukraine's northeastern Kharkiv region. Newsweek could not independently verify this.

The hotline is "monitoring" where North Korean forces end up, Vitalii said.

"We have now made a video message to the North Korean military and developed leaflets that will be distributed at the front," he added. The project also has specialists who can communicate in Korean, Vitalii said.

There are still big question marks over how well the North Korean soldiers, for whom this will be their first combat experience, will cope with warfare on the front lines in Europe.

Officials and experts have pointed to likely problems with communication, slotting into the command structure of Russia's military, and morale.

Pyongyang's fighters are "conditioned with unwavering loyalty to their leadership and a unique psychological resilience cultivated by the regime," Ji Hyun Park, a North Korean defector, now a senior fellow for human security at the Center for Asia Pacific Strategy, previously told Newsweek.

It is designed to instill a willingness to sacrifice everything for the state, Park said.

"However, this psychological preparation may not translate effectively into practical resilience in the type of active combat scenarios currently seen in Ukraine, where they would face modernized and highly capable opposition in unfamiliar territory," Park added.

A group of North Korean defectors based in the South Korean capital said earlier this month that they handed over written instructions and audio messages for North Korean fighters on how to defect to Ukrainian officials in Seoul.

Jang Se-yul, heading up the group, said Kyiv's military "could secure mass surrender and defection among North Korean soldiers if proactive psychological warfare is mobilized," according to South Korea's Yonhap news agency.

Although the North Koreans may be unfamiliar with Russia's territory and weapons stockpiles, they probably will not need extensive training on the guns, rifles, mortars and other explosives Moscow uses against Ukraine, Ramon Pacheco Pardo, a professor of international relations at King's College London, previously told Newsweek.

At least some of the thousands of fighters are thought to be "Storm Troops," or members of Pyongyang's special operations forces trained for infiltration and assassination. It is impossible to tell how well equipped they are for active conflict.

Newsweek · by Ellie Cook · November 24, 2024

6. Trump is urged to include South Korea in strategic meetings about Taiwan

See the next article from VOA on this topic.

China Diplomacy

Trump is urged to include South Korea in strategic meetings about Taiwan

Recommendation by Seoul-based institute may mark a shift, but analysts say such talks may be needed with a US led by isolationist Trump

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3288102/trump-urged-include-south-korea-strategic-meetings-about-taiwan?utm

Laura Zhouin Washington

Published: 6:55am, 26 Nov 2024

The incoming US administration of Donald Trump has been urged to formalise strategic consultations with South Korea and Japan concerning Taiwan, considered potentially the most dangerous flashpoint in Asia.

The request comes from the Institute for Future Strategy at Seoul National University, which regards such consultations as a way to ensure that South Korea would be included in discussions about Taiwan the US would hold with allies like Australia and Japan.

Such inclusion would also elevate trilateral cooperation among Washington, Seoul and Tokyo “into a structured mechanism for regional rule-setting and strategic dialogue”, the institute’s report, “Towards Co-Resilience”, found.

The report called on Seoul and Washington to step up consolidation efforts in strategic industries like shipbuilding as well as in advanced artificial intelligence and semiconductor technologies.

It also urged the US and South Korea to develop “a comprehensive road map” to manage the possibility of a two-front war involving the Taiwan Strait and the Korean peninsula.

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Apec summit in Lima, Peru, on November 16. Photo: YNA/dpa

“Establishing a Northeast Asian security consultative body … would integrate discussions on Taiwan, the East China Sea and North Korea, providing a more cohesive regional strategy,” the report contended.

7. “Trump’s 2nd term will demand more burden from Korea… US-Korea-Japan cooperation to check public opinion will continue”

This is a Google translation of a Voice of America article so please excuse some of the odd titles foursome of the interviewees (your truly included).

We should be clear that just like NATO allies, South Korea (and Japan) do not transfer funds to the US government to "pay" for US troops. There is no "payment" to the US. The host nations pay for agreed up services from local labor costs to utilities to construction of certain facilities and other instructure.

So a $10 million demand can be made but there is no provision for any kind of direct payment to the US. That is not how the agreement works.

Excerpt:

He also claimed at the Chicago Economic Club in October that if he were to remain in office, South Korea would pay $10 billion annually in defense cost sharing.

“Trump’s 2nd term will demand more burden from Korea… US-Korea-Japan cooperation to check public opinion will continue”

https://www.voakorea.com/a/7878363.html

2024.11.27

An Jun-ho

American experts predicted that the Trump administration's second term will demand more burden from allies such as Korea in order to maximize American interests. They predicted that trilateral cooperation between the US, Korea, and Japan will continue in terms of security strategy to check China. Reporter Ahn Jun-ho reports.

Bruce Bennett, Senior Researcher, RAND Corporation.

Bruce Bennett, a senior researcher at the Rand Corporation and a Korean Peninsula expert, predicted in a telephone interview with VOA on the 26th that “former President Trump will demand a greater burden (of defense cost sharing) from allies.”

[Recording: Senior Researcher Bennett] “But he'll also ask the allies to pay somewhat more, maybe not as much as he's talked about during the campaign but he's a negotiator and he's a businessman.”

When asked about US-ROK relations under the second Trump administration, Senior Researcher Bennett said, “It’s difficult to predict,” but added, “Former President Trump was a negotiator and a businessman.”

“Demand for increased defense cost sharing, controversy over withdrawal of US troops from Korea”

Robert Rapson, Former Acting U.S. Ambassador to Korea

Former U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Robert Rapson also said on the same day, “The second Trump administration is likely to demand that South Korea renegotiate its defense cost-sharing agreement and demand that South Korea shoulder a greater burden.”

He also predicted that “if negotiations do not reach an agreement, there will be an implicit, if not explicit, threat of a reduction in US troops.”

[Former Acting Ambassador Rapson] “If Trump decides to reopen the SMA and seek a much greater contribution from the ROK, and I think there is a high probability that he will, the threat of a US troop drawdown will loom implicitly (if not explicitly ) if a deal cannot be reached.”

In response, South Korea suggested that it could meet former President Trump's overall expectations and demands by offering an amount that former President Trump can accept through negotiations or by providing other incentives that are not directly related to defense cost sharing.

David Maxwell, Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy. Photo = Center for Asia Pacific Strategy.

David Maxwell, deputy director of the Asia-Pacific Strategy Center and former chief of staff for operations at the ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command, said in a phone call with VOA that day, “Former President Trump is a negotiator and always tries to get the best deal for the United States,” adding, “He will use threatening rhetoric to strengthen the U.S. negotiating position.”

[Recording: Vice President Maxwell] “He's a negotiator and he uses statements to drive negotiations and he is always trying to drive the best deal for the United States. And so you know, he is going to use statements he's going to use threats to improve the US negotiating position. (omitted) However, the threat to remove US forces from the Korean Peninsula would actually harm the national security of the United States.”

Threats such as the statement of “withdrawal of US troops from Korea” are explained as a negotiation technique to maximize US interests.

Former President Trump raised the issue of withdrawal of US troops and increased defense cost sharing several times during his first term in office and during his election campaign.

In an interview with the American weekly magazine Time last April, he stated his position on why South Korea, a “very wealthy country,” needs to have American troops defend it.

He also claimed at the Chicago Economic Club in October that if he were to remain in office, South Korea would pay $10 billion annually in defense cost sharing.

“Former President Trump would not want to withdraw U.S. troops from South Korea,” said Bennett, adding, “He would recognize that stationing U.S. troops in South Korea is the most appropriate location for defending China.”

He continued, “Former President Trump also believes that the withdrawal of US troops from Korea is not in the interests of the United States, but it is difficult to predict what he will try to do to utilize Korea.”

He said, “As a businessman, I will try to use the clear pressure that Korea feels to share a greater burden.”

Evans Revere, former Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs.

Evans Revere, former Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, told VOA on the same day that “it is currently unknown what decision the second Trump administration will make regarding the size of the U.S. military presence in Korea,” but that “a significant reduction in the number of U.S. troops stationed in Korea could send a dangerous signal to North Korea and other potential adversaries in the region.”

[Former Deputy Assistant Secretary Revere] “It is not possible to know at this point what a second Trump administration will do regarding US troop levels in Korea. (omitted) Any significant reduction in the US military presence in Korea would send a dangerous signal to North Korea and other potential adversaries in the region. It would raise questions about America’s commitment and reliability.”

Daniel Snyder, Professor of East Asian Studies at Stanford University.

Daniel Snyder, a professor of East Asian studies at Stanford University, said in a phone interview with VOA on the same day that “former President Trump could make a deal in which the United States would be willing to withdraw U.S. troops from South Korea in exchange for North Korea halting its long-range missile program,” arguing that “North Korea’s long-range missiles pose a direct threat to the United States.”

[Recording: Professor Snyder] “If I think the bargain that he would be willing to make is to withdraw US forces from South Korea in exchange for North Korea ending it's long range missile programs in that case because that's what's a direct threat to the United States. So I think that kind of bargain, you know, he might even be interested in that.”

Professor Snyder said, “If you look at the memoirs of first-term Trump officials, such as former Secretary of Defense Mark Esper and former White House National Security Advisor John Bolton, former President Trump was prepared to demand a significant increase in defense cost sharing from South Korea, and he was definitely thinking about withdrawing US troops from South Korea.”

“Allies are essential to contain China, but dissatisfaction remains”

Meanwhile, experts predicted that trilateral cooperation among the US, South Korea, and Japan to check China will continue during the second Trump administration.

Senior Researcher Bennett predicted that former President Trump would want to respond to China together with allies such as South Korea and Japan.

[Recording: Senior Researcher Bennett] “I think many of the Trump people have strong feelings about limiting Chinese power. And you don't limit Chinese power by alienating allies. You limit Chinese power by getting closer to US allies. So my sense is if China's really the critical issue, Trump will work with the allies, try to get to a trilateral relationship that's even stronger.”

“Many members of the Trump administration are very committed to limiting China’s power,” said Bennett, a senior fellow. “Limiting China’s power will require moving closer to our allies, not alienating them.”

He said, “If China were really the issue, former President Trump would have tried to build a stronger trilateral relationship by working with allies.”

Gary Seymour, former White House Coordinator for Weapons of Mass Destruction. Photo = Brandeis University.

“I know that former President Trump has not been very supportive of our alliances in Asia and Europe, but his primary focus in Asia is China,” Gary Seymour, a former White House coordinator for weapons of mass destruction, told VOA in a phone call that day.

He continued, “If the U.S., South Korea, and Japan are important in containing China and limiting Chinese influence, they can persuade others that the alliance is helpful for the larger goal of dealing with China.”

[Recording: Former Coordinator Seymour] “On one hand, we know that Trump has not been a strong supporter of US alliances either in Asia and Europe. On the other hand, Trump's main concern in Asia is China. And to the extent that the US ROK Japan alliance is important for containing China, for limiting China's influence then Trump might be persuaded that the alliance supports his bigger objective of dealing with the Chinese threat.”

Former Coordinator Seymour said that both Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio and National Security Adviser nominee Michael Waltz “strongly support trilateral cooperation among the U.S., South Korea, and Japan as part of an overall effort to contain China, and will try to convince former President Trump that this is the best approach to dealing with China.”

However, he added that former President Trump did not hear similar comments from those around him even during his first term in office.

“President Trump has a grievance that our allies are taking advantage of us economically,” said Seymour.

Meanwhile, former President Trump announced on the same day that he would impose a 25% tariff on two US allies, Canada and Mexico, and explained that similar measures could be taken against South Korea and Japan.

Michael O'Hanlon, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution.

Michael O'Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, told VOA on Tuesday that "the relationship between the second Trump administration and South Korea is unpredictable."

It is difficult to say whether former President Trump's previous grievances toward South Korea will persist, whether he will once again be tempted to withdraw US troops from South Korea without former Defense Secretary James Mattis or former Secretary of Defense Mark Esper, who previously opposed the withdrawal of US troops from South Korea, or whether he will attempt to make a grand deal with Kim Jong-un.

[Senior Researcher O’Hanlon] “I think all bets are off about a second Trump Administration and the ROK. Would his previous sense of grievance against South Korea endure? Would he again be tempted, this time without Mattis and Esper at DoD, to withdraw troops from the peninsula? Would he try to make a grand deal with Kim Jong Un that led to such an outcome? “I just don’t think we can say.”

“US Forces in Korea have limited role in Taiwan emergency”

Regarding the role of the USFK during Trump’s second term, Deputy Representative Maxwell predicted that the main mission of the USFK is to deter North Korea’s provocations, and that the USFK would not play a very large role in the event of a sudden change in Taiwan.

“USFK is optimized to support the ROK-US Combined Forces Command, and its first mission is deterrence against North Korea,” said Vice Minister Maxwell. “It is important to strengthen deterrence in Korea so that Kim Jong-un cannot exploit an emergency in Taiwan to cause problems for South Korea and the United States.”

He continued, “Aside from the 7th Air Force, which could be effectively deployed in the event of an emergency in Taiwan, the US Forces in Korea have almost no troops that can be deployed,” adding, “The remaining ground forces and intelligence, communications, and logistics units are optimized for the defense of Korea and are hardly applicable to an emergency in Taiwan.”

[Recording: Vice President Maxwell] “I don't see it playing a very significant role at all. USFK is optimized to support the ROK US Combined Forces Command and the first mission is deterrence of North Korea. If there’s a contingency in Taiwan, then it is important that deterrence be enhanced in South Korea to prevent Kim Jong UN from trying to exploit a contingency and create problems for South Korea and the United States.”

“The task of finding a new way to divide roles”

Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific Security Chair, Hudson Institute

“The bottom line is that even the strongest alliances require revision and strategic adjustment,” said Patrick Cronin, chair of security affairs at the Hudson Institute, in a written response to VOA that day. “The question is not what the Trump administration will do with South Korea, but what the United States and South Korea can do to create a new shared role that strengthens the security and prosperity of both countries.”

[Cronin Chair] “The challenge is not what the Trump administration will do to South Korea, but what can Washington and Seoul do to strike a new division of labor that strengthens the security and prosperity of both countries.”

He said, “The first year of the second Trump administration will be a milestone for the alliance,” adding, “If the wise voices of both sides listen to each other, reflect our shared assessment of the issues, and find solutions that benefit both countries, we will be able to move in a better direction.”

This is Ahn Jun-ho from VOA News.

8. Putin and Kim could meet to cement Russia-North Korea axis

It would not be a surprise. They want to shake up the US alliances.

Putin and Kim could meet to cement Russia-North Korea axis

Newsweek · by Micah McCartney · November 26, 2024

Published Nov 26, 2024 at 11:28 AM ESTByChina News Reporter

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South Korea's defense chief Shin Won-sik said on Sunday that a return trip by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to Russia cannot be ruled out.

Such a visit would mark Kim's first since September 2023 and follows Russian President Vladimir Putin's June trip to Pyongyang, where the two leaders signed a mutual defense treaty.

The landmark treaty has strengthened their military partnership, building on over a year of North Korean shipments—believed by Seoul to contain thousands of containers of munitions destined for Ukraine's front lines.

The deployment of thousands of North Korean troops to join Russian forces on the front lines has further cemented ties between the two countries.

"It could be a reciprocal visit for Russian President Vladimir Putin's trip to North Korea in June, or it could be a visit for Putin to thank the North for its troop deployment," Shin said during a press briefing.

Newsweek reached out to the North Korean embassy in China with an emailed request for comment.

North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un, center, and Russian President Vladimir Putin attend a welcoming ceremony in Pyongyang on June 19. South Korea's defense chief said Kim may be planning to visit Russia. North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un, center, and Russian President Vladimir Putin attend a welcoming ceremony in Pyongyang on June 19. South Korea's defense chief said Kim may be planning to visit Russia. Vladimir Smirnov/AFP via Getty Images

Shin added that such a meeting could involve "sensitive matters" and emphasized the need for careful monitoring.

His remarks followed South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) disclosure last week that it is closely watching for indications of a potential Kim visit.

This comes after North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui met with Putin in Moscow earlier this month.

Doo Jin-ho, a senior analyst with the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, said Kim might time a trip to see Putin to coincide with Russia's Defender of the Fatherland Day, celebrated on February 23, as a tribute to Russia's armed forces, The Korea Times reported.

The U.S. and its allies say the deployment of over 10,000 North Korean troops to join Putin's war is a major escalation. They suspect that, in exchange, Moscow could be providing advanced weaponry and technological expertise to bolster Kim's United Nations-sanctioned ballistic missile and nuclear programs.

Pyongyang and the Kremlin have neither confirmed nor denied that there are North Korean troops in Russia, though North Korea's envoy to the U.N. envoy has insisted any such deployment would comply with international law.

During Sunday's press conference, Shin also also said the North is believed to be in the "final stages" of another satellite launch attempt. "There are no signs of imminent movement to the launch pad, but we believe there is a high possibility of a launch before the end of the year," he said.

After multiple failed attempts, Pyongyang successfully placed a spy satellite into orbit in November, citing self-defense. The move violated U.N. sanctions aimed at preventing North Korea from acquiring missile-related technology.

Seoul retaliated by suspending parts of a 2018 inter-Korean agreement intended to reduce border conflict risks. North Korea then declared itself no longer bound by the pact and vowing to move troops and equipment to the border.

North Korea's last satellite launch attempt in May ended in a mid-air explosion, with officials blaming the incident on a carrier rocket malfunction.

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About the writer

Micah McCartney

Micah McCartney is a reporter for Newsweek based in Taipei, Taiwan. He covers U.S.-China relations, East Asian and Southeast Asian security issues, and cross-strait ties between China and Taiwan. You can get in touch with Micah by emailing m.mccartney@newsweek.com.

Micah McCartney is a reporter for Newsweek based in Taipei, Taiwan. He covers U.S.-China relations, East Asian and Southeast Asian ...

Newsweek · by Micah McCartney · November 26, 2024

9. Russia issues warning to South Korea about sending arms to Ukraine

South Korea must not be deterred by Putin's rhetoric. South Korea is either a global pivotal state and a partner in the arsenal of democracy or it will be reduced to a bit player on the world stage.

Russia issues warning to South Korea about sending arms to Ukraine

Newsweek · by Marni Rose McFall · November 25, 2024

Published Nov 25, 2024 at 12:38 PM ESTByLive News Reporter

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Russia has issued a warning to South Korea against sending arms to Ukraine, with Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko calling on Seoul to "soberly assess the situation and refrain from reckless steps".

According to the Financial Times, South Korea's President Yoon Suk Yeol is considering sending arms to Ukraine in response to North Korea dispatching troops to Russia. In October, South Korea warned that they would consider this, a statement that was purported to pressure Russia against bringing North Korean troops for its war against Ukraine, something it has now done.

Newsweek has reached out to the South Korean government and the Kremlin via email for comment.

Reports out of the U.S., South Korea and Ukraine stated that more than 10,000 North Korean soldiers were sent to Russia in October, with some now actively engaged in combat on the front lines.

Civilians wearing military uniforms take part in a military training organized by Ukrainian soldiers of The Third Separate Assault Brigade in Kyiv, on November 23, 2024, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russia has issued... Civilians wearing military uniforms take part in a military training organized by Ukrainian soldiers of The Third Separate Assault Brigade in Kyiv, on November 23, 2024, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russia has issued a warning to South Korea against sending arms to Ukraine, with the Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko called on Seoul to "soberly assess the situation and refrain from reckless steps". TETIANA DZHAFAROVA/AFP via Getty

Rudenko said, "Seoul must realize that the possible use of South Korean weapons to kill Russian citizens will fully destroy relations between our countries. Of course, we will respond in every way that we find necessary. It is unlikely that this will strengthen the security of the Republic of Korea itself."

He added, "I hope that the administration of the Republic of Korea will be guided primarily by long-term national interests, and not by short-term opportunistic considerations prompted from outside," he added.

Back in June of this year, prior to the dispatch of North Korean soldiers into Russia, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned South Korea that Moscow would "[make] decisions which are unlikely to please the current leadership of South Korea" if they were to supply arms to Kyiv.

Putin made these comments while speaking in Vietnam, following his visit to Pyongyang where he signed a mutual defense treaty with North Korean leader Kim Jonh Un, and both countries pledged to boost their military ties.

The Financial Times reported that Yoon, alongside other senior officials in Seoul, believed that Pyongyang's direct participation in the Russia-Ukraine war could be a threat to South Korea's security. In addition, they reportedly fear that Moscow may share sophisticated military technologies in exchange for Pyongyang's support.

North Korean troops have been deployed to the Russian frontline, a Ukrainian official said on Friday.

Andrii Kovalenko, the head of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council's Center for Countering Disinformation, wrote on Telegram that some North Korean troops have moved into the Belgorod region. The Belgorod Oblast is located south of the Kursk Oblast and is directly across from the Kharkiv Oblast in Ukraine.

Deputy Pentagon press secretary Sabrina Singh told reporters on November 18 that it is likely that roughly 11,000 North Korean troops have entered Russia's Kursk region.

New assessments from the Institute of War (ISW) have said that Moscow's troops "recently advanced" in the area of Kursk, which is currently controlled by Ukrainian soldiers. Kyiv launched its surprise incursion into Kursk in early August. Since, Russia has struggled to counter Ukraine's biggest advance into Russian territory since the beginning of the conflict.

North Korean reinforcements are expected to head for frontline clashes soon, the U.S. has said.

Do you have a story Newsweek should be covering? Do you have any questions about this story? Contact LiveNews@newsweek.com.

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About the writer

Marni Rose McFall

Marni Rose McFall is a Newsweek reporter based in London, U.K. Her focus is on U.S. politics, social affairs and popular culture. She has covered fashion, culture, art and music extensively. Marni joined Newsweek in 2024 from Frasers Group and had previously written for The Sun, Cosmopolitan, Schon, The Fall and Voir Fashion. She is a graduate of The University of Edinburgh. You can get in touch with Marni by emailing m.mcfall@newsweek.com.

Marni Rose McFall is a Newsweek reporter based in London, U.K. Her focus is on U.S. politics, social affairs and ...

Newsweek · by Marni Rose McFall · November 25, 2024

10. Will South Korea heed Ukraine’s call for weapons aid amid Trump’s win, Russia warning?

Under pressure.

Will South Korea heed Ukraine’s call for weapons aid amid Trump’s win, Russia warning?

A Ukrainian team is bringing a weapons wish list to Seoul but analysts say the Yoon administration is unlikely to swiftly approve the request

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3288118/will-south-korea-heed-ukraines-call-weapons-aid-amid-trumps-win-russia-warning?utm

Park Chan-kyong

Published: 11:02am, 26 Nov 2024

A Ukrainian delegation led by Defence Minister Rustem Umerov is set to visit South Korea to request weapons aid, according to an informed source.

Analysts expect Seoul to take a cautious stance on the plea following Donald Trump’s election victory and Moscow’s repeated warnings against such actions.

The group was expected to meet South Korean counterparts “as early as Wednesday” and present a wish list that included anti-air missiles and artillery pieces, the source said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

A spokesman for South Korea’s defence ministry declined to comment.

Doo Jin-ho, a research fellow at the Korea Institute for Defence Analyses, noted that while South Korea was a global leader in conventional weapons production, it was likely to tread carefully on the matter.

“South Korea will listen to Ukraine’s request but is unlikely to make a clear commitment to providing weapons,” Doo said.

“The government is expected to adopt a wait-and-see approach, monitoring Russia’s military cooperation with North Korea before deciding its next steps.”

Doo added that factors such as Moscow’s threats, opposition from South Korea’s National Assembly and the political impact of Trump’s second presidency were behind Seoul’s hesitancy.

North Korea has reportedly sent troops to Russia; Will South Korea give 'lethal' weapons to Kyiv?

Currently, South Korea has restricted its support for Ukraine to non-lethal aid like gas masks and field rations, adhering to a policy against supplying lethal weapons to countries at war.

However, President Yoon Suk-yeol recently signalled a potential shift. Last month, he stated that Seoul could consider providing weapons, starting with defensive items and escalating to lethal ones depending on the extent of military cooperation between Russia and North Korea.

The North has sent about 10,000 soldiers to Russia, some of whom have recently begun engaging in combat on the front lines.

The recent US election, however, may have influenced South Korea’s stance. Observers suggest that Trump’s victory has prompted Yoon to reassess his previously more hawkish position.

They also note that there was strong resistance from opposition parties, which control the National Assembly and equate providing weapons to participating in the war, complicating the government’s ability to act.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told South Korean broadcaster KBS last month that his government would make a detailed request for weapons.

“It’s one thing to help Ukraine financially or humanitarian, medically, and another to help with weapons,” he said, noting North Korea has been involved in fighting against Ukrainian citizens by sending its troops.

“Our request [for South Korea] will be detailed,” Zelensky said, mentioning the need for artillery, air defence systems and other critical equipment.

South Korea’s advanced anti-air and anti-tank missiles, along with its large-scale production of artillery shells, make it a potential key supplier for Ukraine.

Yet domestic opposition remains a significant hurdle.

Opposition lawmakers have threatened to impeach South Korea’s defence minister if the government sends military aid to Ukraine, citing laws that prohibit arms exports to nations at war without parliamentary approval.

“There seems to be a shift in the government’s tone following the US election,” Doo said, hinting at a cautious recalibration of Seoul’s position.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (centre) visits a defence exhibition in Pyongyang on November 21. Photo: KCNA via KNS/AFP

Trump’s choice for US National Security Adviser, Mike Waltz, has also urged an end to the Ukraine-Russia war.

“North Korea has made this move. We have made a move. Russia has now responded. Iran is involved. South Korea is thinking about getting involved. Our allies have now extended the range of their missiles as well,” Waltz said on Sunday.

“We need to bring this to a responsible end. We need to restore deterrence, restore peace, and get ahead of this escalation ladder rather than responding to it,” he said, echoing Trump’s pledge to end the conflict within 24 hours of taking office.

Moscow has sternly warned South Korea against providing weapons to Ukraine, saying the move would “fully destroy” bilateral relations.

“We hope Seoul will prioritise long-term national interests over short-term opportunistic considerations prompted from outside,” Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko said on Sunday.

Lee Sung-won, a research fellow at the Sejong Institute, downplayed the likelihood of Seoul meeting Kyiv’s request.

“South Korea should consider aligning its policy with the incoming Trump administration,” he said.

Similarly, Cho Han-bum, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said Moscow appears intent on maintaining ties with Seoul while cautioning it against “crossing the line” by supplying lethal aid to Ukraine.

“Russia’s military cooperation with North Korea is calculated,” Cho noted, adding it supplies Pyongyang with food and oil in exchange for troop support.

“Wheat prices in the North have stabilised, apparently due to the Russian food aid,” he said.

Jeh Sung-hoon, a Russian studies professor at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, said Moscow is likely to keep making the most of its deepening ties with the North as a strategic move to counterbalance Washington and Seoul.

“Unless Russia’s relationship with the US improves, it is likely to continue to leverage North Korea’s military capabilities, even after the war in Ukraine concludes,” Jeh said.

Park Chan-kyong

Park Chan-kyong is a journalist covering South Korean affairs for the South China Morning Post. He previously worked at the Agence France-Presse's Seoul bureau for 35 years. He studied political science at Korea University and economics at the Yonsei University Graduate School.

11. G7 urges China to oppose North Korea-Russia military cooperation

China: A responsible stakeholder?

G7 urges China to oppose North Korea-Russia military cooperation

China, a key North Korean ally, faces growing pressure to act as a responsible stakeholder in regional stability.

https://www.rfa.org/english/china/2024/11/27/china-g7-north-korea-russia/

By Taejun Kang for RFA

2024.11.26

The G7 foreign ministers’ meeting in Fiuggi, Italy, Nov. 25, 2024.

(Remo Casilli/Reuters)

TAIPEI, Taiwan – G7 foreign ministers called on China to oppose North Korea’s growing military ties with Russia, while NATO recommended its members employ diplomatic and economic levers to discourage Beijing from aiding Moscow.

China, one of North Korea’s few traditional allies, has recently been under growing pressure to serve as a responsible stakeholder as the United States and its allies worry that the deployment of North Korean troops will dangerously escalate the Ukrainian war.

“We are seriously concerned about the deployment of the DPRK’s troops to Russia and their use on the battlefield against Ukraine … We urge countries with ties to Russia and the DPRK, including China, to uphold international law by opposing this dangerous expansion of the conflict and implementing all relevant UNSC resolutions,” foreign ministers of the Group of Seven said in a statement on Tuesday.

DPRK refers to North Korea’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, while UNSC is short for the U. N. Security Council.

“We condemn in the strongest possible terms the increasing military cooperation between DPRK and Russia, including DPRK’s export and Russia’s procurement of North Korean ballistic missiles and munitions in direct violation of relevant UNSC Resolutions, as well as Russia’s use of these missiles and munitions against Ukraine,” they added.

Separately, NATO recommended its members discourage China through diplomacy from aiding Russia.

“It [the NATO Parliamentary Assembly] recommended employing diplomatic and economic levers to discourage China from aiding Russia,” the security bloc’s assembly said on Tuesday.

“The Assembly called for tightening sanctions on Russia and North Korea, citing Pyongyang’s growing military support for Moscow,” it added.

In a video message to the assembly, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte sought support for Ukraine in its war against Russia and its allies.

“There’s war in Europe. We see China, Iran, North Korea and Russia joining forces to undermine us, and threats continue to transcend borders, from terrorism to cyber attacks. So it is vital that NATO becomes stronger, more capable and more agile,” Rutte said.

China has not commented on North Korea’s deployment except to say the development of relations between Russia and North Korea was solely for them to decide.

U.S. President Joe Biden, during a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Peru on Nov. 16, condemned North Korea’s decision to send its troops to Russia to assist in the war against Ukraine, while expressing “deep concern over [China’s] continued support for Russia’s defense industrial base.”

At that time, Xi said that China’s position regarding the war had “always been fair and square,” adding Beijing would “not allow conflict and turmoil to happen on the Korean Peninsula” and that it would “not sit idly by” while its strategic interests are endangered.

Alarming Safety Conditions at North Korea's Flood Recovery Sites: Workers Dangling in Mid-air Like Circus Performers, No Rest Despite Harsh Weather

asiapress.org

In mid-October 2024, flood recovery construction was in full swing in the Sinuiju and Uiju regions along the Chinese border, following floods that devastated northern North Korea in July. Using a super-telephoto lens, ASIAPRESS observed construction sites where numerous soldiers and shock troops were building apartments for flood victims. (JEON Sung-jun)

While North Korean authorities had set October 10, Workers' Party Foundation Day, as the deadline for flood recovery construction, it was clear during ASIAPRESS's mid-October visit that completion would take longer.

According to Korean Central News Agency reports on November 5, Kim Jong-un visited the construction sites in Sinuiju and Uiju and ordered work to be completed before the Workers' Party plenary meeting in December. This was his third visit since construction began in early August, with each visit marked by increasing pressure for rapid completion.

Throughout the sites, the ASIAPRESS team discovered serious safety violations and dangerous conditions resulting from rushed construction. Through super-telephoto footage, ASIAPRESS documented workers exposed to severe safety risks while racing to meet deadlines.

The accompanying video provides detailed documentation of conditions at these construction sites.

North Korea map by ASIAPRESS

＜Super-telephoto Lens Report＞North Korea's Flood Recovery Sites (1) Construction Workers, Including Many Women, Working High in the Sky Without Safety Equipment (7 Photos)

＜Super-telephoto Lens Report＞North Korea's Flood Recovery Sites (2) Dizzying Scenes... Young Women Working Without Helmets on 15-Story Buildings, Visible Signs of Fatigue (8 Photos)

＜Super-telephoto Lens Report＞North Korea's Flood Recovery Sites (3) Young Soldiers Working Silently in Pouring Rain, Seemingly Driven by 'Do-or-Die Implementation' Slogan (10 Photos)

asiapress.org

13. Yoon calls for robust military readiness against growing N. Korean threats

(LEAD) Yoon calls for robust military readiness against growing N. Korean threats | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Eun-jung · November 27, 2024

(ATTN: RECASTS headline, lead; UPDATES with Yoon's remarks in paras 2-5)

By Kim Eun-jung

SEOUL, Nov. 27 (Yonhap) -- President Yoon Suk Yeol urged the military to maintain strong readiness to counter growing security threats posed by North Korea's troop deployment to Russia, the presidential office said Wednesday.

Yoon made the call during a promotion ceremony for six lieutenant generals, including new Marine Corps Commandant Ju Il-suk, at the presidential office.

"North Korea has gone beyond nuclear and missile provocations by deploying a large number of troops to Russia, posing a serious threat to the peace of not only South Korea but also the international community," Yoon said.

He expressed concerns about the security implications of North Korean forces potentially gaining modern warfare experience while fighting alongside Russian troops in Ukraine.

"With approximately 12,000 North Korean troops expected to share their combat experience with the rest of the over 1 million-strong North Korean military, it is crucial for our military to maintain thorough readiness," he said.

During the ceremony, Yoon awarded them with Samjeonggeom, which means the "sword of triple sincerity" in Korean, traditionally symbolizing the power and authority of generals.

President Yoon Suk Yeol (L) and Marine Corps Commandant Lt. Gen. Ju Il-suk pose for a photo during a promotion ceremony at the presidential office in Seoul on Nov. 27, 2024. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

ejkim@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Eun-jung · November 27, 2024

14. Ukraine's special envoy expected to meet Yoon as early as Wednesday: sources

Please do the right thing because it is the right thing to do.

Ukraine's special envoy expected to meet Yoon as early as Wednesday: sources | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Eun-jung · November 27, 2024

By Kim Eun-jung

SEOUL, Nov. 27 (Yonhap) -- A Ukrainian delegation led by Kyiv's Defense Minister Rustem Umerov is expected to visit Seoul and meet with President Yoon Suk Yeol as early as Wednesday, sources familiar with the matter said.

Umerov is expected to share intelligence on North Korea's troop deployment to Russia and seek South Korea's support for Ukraine's war efforts.

The visit comes about a month after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced Kyiv's plans to send a delegation to South Korea during his phone talks with Yoon.

Yoon has said South Korea may consider providing arms support to Ukraine depending on the extent of military cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow.

Zelenskyy has previously emphasized Ukraine's urgent need for anti-aircraft missiles and artillery systems to counter threats from Russia.

On Tuesday, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha expressed expectations that South Korea will work closely with Ukraine on information sharing with regard to the military cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang.

President Yoon Suk Yeol talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy over the phone at his office in Seoul on Oct. 29, 2024, in this file photo provided by the presidential office. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

ejkim@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Eun-jung · November 27, 2024

15. Trump Returns to ‘Maximum Pressure’ as Era of Biden Alliances Ends

Just because Biden supported alliances does not mean it is wrong to do so or it is wrong to continue to do so. I hope the Trump administration does not throw away one of the most important national security assets of America: its allies.

But if he wants to put maximum pressure on north Korea and Kim Jong Un the way to do it is conjunction with South Korea (and Japan) through human rights, a comprehensive information campaign and support to the Korean people's pursuit of a free and unified Korea resting on a foundation of combined deterrence and defense and a strategic strangulation campaign thought highly enforced sanctions. And one way to put pressure on China is through trilateral corporations because Xi has publicly stated that hedpes not want to see a trilateral alliance.

Alliances contribute to the US winning in strategic competition, to deterrence and to US victory in war. I hope the Trump administration can recognize that.

"America First – Alliances Always"

Trump Returns to ‘Maximum Pressure’ as Era of Biden Alliances Ends

The president-elect is taking a page from the playbook he used in his first term when he sought to restrain Iran and North Korea

https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/trump-foreign-policy-diplomatic-pressure-a27830cc?mod=hp_lead_pos1

By Alexander Ward

Nov. 26, 2024 9:00 pm ET

President-elect Donald Trump has long taken strong positions with the goal of cowing negotiating partners. Photo: Brandon Bell/Press Pool

WASHINGTON—President-elect Donald Trump’s brandishing of tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico and China marks the passage from one era to another: Partnerships are out, and coercion is in.

Trump is showing his second term will be much like his first, defined by the economic and diplomatic fights he picked with friends as well as foes. His punitive use of tariffs to bend others to his will is a far cry from the pains the Biden administration took to forge agreements and build consensus on policy in Europe and Asia.

The president-elect has long taken strong positions with the goal of cowing negotiating partners. It is part of the playbook he used during his first term to confront Iran’s aggression and North Korea’s nuclear program. In the end, his “maximum pressure” strategy produced mixed results: Iran was strangled financially but continued supporting proxies in the Middle East, and North Korea grew and advanced its nuclear arsenal.

Then-President Donald Trump met North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in 2019 in the demilitarized zone that divides the two Koreas. Photo: Associated Press

“His whole worldview is maximum pressure, it’s that simple,” said a Trump adviser under consideration for a senior foreign-policy position. “Scare your negotiating partner into thinking you will do what most think is unthinkable.”

Trump on Monday night announced his plans to compel countries to stop the flow of migrants crossing the border illegally and fentanyl entering the U.S., by placing 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods, and increasing existing duties on Chinese products by 10%. The three governments could “easily solve this long simmering problem,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “Until such time they do, it is time for them to pay a very big price.”

The moves, if implemented as planned in an Inauguration Day executive order, could upend global trade and raise prices for American consumers, but Trump’s allies say his goal is to gain leverage in negotiations—whether with allies or foes.

“Tariffs on allies are a more benign option than sanctions on adversaries, but both are designed to achieve the same end, which is to increase American negotiating leverage in order to find an agreement that advances American interests,” said Mark Dubowitz, chief executive of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank, who speaks frequently to senior incoming Trump administration officials. “It’s maximum pressure gone global.”

Trump will re-enter the Oval Office with the world far more dangerous than when he was first president. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the introduction of North Korean troops complicates efforts to negotiate an end to the war. In the Middle East, Israel’s retaliation for the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas has seen tens of thousands of Palestinians killed and most of Gaza’s more than two million people have been displaced. Iran, which has been engaged in a cycle of escalating attacks with Israel, has moved closer to obtaining the weapons-grade fuel needed for a nuclear weapon.

Demonstrators in New York City turned out in January 2017 to protest an executive order to ban citizens of seven Muslim-majority countries from entry into the U.S. for 90 days. Photo: Stephanie Keith/Getty Images

Members of Trump’s team are saying his strength is already having global effects, with incoming national security adviser Mike Waltz giving his boss credit for the Biden administration-brokered cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah.

“Everyone is coming to the table because of President Trump,” he posted to X. “His resounding victory sent a clear message to the rest of the world that chaos won’t be tolerated.”

Under most administrations, major foreign-policy decisions out of the White House usually emerge after reviews featuring senior aides, counselors, lawmakers and even allies. Trump turned the process on its head in his first term. He often announced policies before formal considerations had taken place, in some cases sidestepping Congress and leading to a scramble within his team to implement the directive.

A week into his first term, Trump signed an executive order to ban citizens of seven Muslim-majority countries from entry into the U.S. for 90 days, even though senior officials knew the document hadn’t been reviewed by government lawyers.

(LEAD) Presidential office worries over impact of Trump's proposed tariffs on Korean firms in Canada, Mexico | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Eun-jung · November 27, 2024

(ATTN: RECASTS headline, lead; UPDATES throughout with latest details; CHANGES photo)

By Kim Eun-jung

SEOUL, Nov. 27 (Yonhap) -- The presidential office on Wednesday expressed concerns about the potential impact of President-elect Donald Trump's proposed tariffs on Korean businesses in Mexico and Canada, vowing proactive measures to address the risks.

Sung Tae-yoon, the presidential chief of staff for policy, held an interagency meeting to assess the potential effects of Trump's pledge to levy a 25 percent tariff on all products from Mexico and Canada, along with an additional 10 percent tariff on China.

Trump's proposal has raised concerns among Korean companies with investments in Mexico and Canada that utilize the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Free Trade Agreement to access the North American market.

"If the proposed 25 percent tariff on all products from Mexico and Canada becomes a reality, it would inevitably affect exports from Korean companies producing in these countries to the U.S.," the office said in a release.

"It would also impact Korean companies in the U.S. sourcing components from Mexico and Canada, as well as those exporting intermediate goods to these countries," it noted.

While the tariffs on China are expected to have a limited direct impact on Korean manufacturers in the semiconductor, steel and automotive sectors given their heavy focus on the Chinese market, officials also examined the broader effects of the escalating trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.

"A decline in China's exports to the U.S. could affect Korea's intermediate goods exports to China and may also intensify competition in third-country markets," the office said.

Sung instructed senior officials from the finance, trade and foreign affairs ministries to proactively prepare responses for each scenario to minimize the potential risks from the new policies under the Trump administration.

Sung Tae-yoon, the presidential chief of staff for policy, speaks during a press briefing at the presidential office in Seoul in this Nov. 5, 2024, file photo. (Yonhap)

ejkim@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Eun-jung · November 27, 2024

17. Trump's choice (Alex Wong)

I am just pleased to have a Green Beret and a Korea hand heading up the national security team as the number one and number two.

Trump's choice

The Korea Times · November 27, 2024

Creative diplomacy essential to preparing for Trump 2.0

By Kang Hyun-kyung

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s nomination of former State Department official Alex Wong as deputy national security adviser has sparked speculation among experts and media in South Korea about its potential implications for the country.

Citing Wong’s previous role in the U.S.-North Korea summit during the first term of the Trump administration, one South Korean media outlet said Trump’s pick could be a harbinger of another summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. As Trump said, Wong, who previously served as the deputy assistant secretary for North Korea, helped negotiate the Trump-Kim summit in his first term.

Another media outlet, however, interpreted the nomination differently. Based on Wong’s previous remarks during a seminar held in Seoul, it forecast that there will be no major changes in the U.S. government’s stance on the denuclearization of North Korea and that, therefore, the U.S. would never recognize North Korea as a nuclear weapons state. Meanwhile, Wong’s previous career as global head of public affairs at Coupang was addressed in another media outlet to highlight his connection with South Korea.

Although these three media outlets’ views are different, their reactions have one thing in common: South Korea is wary of a possible policy shift under Trump in his second term.

This is not the first time Korean media outlets and experts have tried to predict what will happen once Trump takes office in January. Whenever Trump unveiled his picks for U.S. national security adviser, state department secretary and other key post holders whose responsibilities include affairs of the two Koreas, experts here were quick to speculate about their possible role in South Korea-U.S. relations.

It’s understandable that South Korea is keen to watch the U.S. president-elect’s nominations of key post holders and interpret how they could impact South Korea. This is presumably what other countries also do around this sensitive time period because, like South Korea, they are also wary of a possible policy shift and its fallout on their bilateral relations with the U.S.

However, as always, hectic reactions won’t help South Korea at all. Policymakers should stay cool and realistic when they analyze and draw up measures to prepare for Trump 2.0. There is a particular skill South Korea’s policymakers and experts need to hone when preparing for the incoming U.S. administration: They should think like Trump.

What would matter most to President-elect Trump? How he would handle that?

Policymakers can start by answering these two questions and then navigate the options South Korea can choose.

Trump is expected to prioritize decoupling from China and will invest all his time and energy to make it happen. To live up to his commitment, he is expected to mobilize all political and diplomatic capital to counter China in trade and foreign policy.

Currently, the biggest challenge is the war in Ukraine as the U.S., like the European Union, is pitted against Russia. Trump will want to end this situation and is expected to push for a cease-fire deal.

Although a bumpy road is ahead, a cease-fire deal, if signed, will benefit South Korea, too. If the war in Ukraine ends, North Korea’s dangerous military cooperation with Russia will slow down.

This shared interest shows what’s good for the U.S. can also benefit South Korea. There will be more areas where the two sides can find mutual gains. The question is then which side is primarily responsible for seeking out new areas of cooperation and suggesting the allies work together. As an old Korean saying suggests, people who are thirsty are supposed to initiate to dig a well. And this time, the one that needs to dig a well is South Korea. Policymakers need to be creative and think outside the box to find what those new areas of cooperation will be.

The writer is a member of The Korea Times editorial board.

The Korea Times · November 27, 2024

18. N. Korea orders market crackdown to combat 'capitalist elements'

Kim could take away the people's lifeline. This is what has provided resilience among the population.

Is there a tipping point in the future?

If the people lose market access they lose their ability to survive.

This is another indication that Kim is only concerned with his survival and not the welfare of the Korean people in the north. Markets are a threat to him and a survival mechanism for the people. This is a major theme and message in an information campaign.

N. Korea orders market crackdown to combat 'capitalist elements' - Daily NK English

Officials are threatening to close or relocate markets that fail to eliminate illegal transactions, despite years of warnings

By Jeong Seo-yeong - November 27, 2024

dailynk.com · by Jeong Seo-yeong · November 27, 2024

FILE PHOTO: A North Korean businessperson using a cell phone at a local market. (Daily NK)

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has directed officials to crack down on marketplaces, citing concerns about the spread of capitalist influences. The directive prompted an emergency meeting of provincial officials in South Pyongan province to implement stricter marketplace regulations.

According to a source in the province recently, the provincial people’s committee held a meeting on Nov. 12 with market managers and officials from the commerce departments and sections at cities and counties throughout the province.

The committee commented that illegal capitalistic transactions are occurring not only at the province’s large wholesale markets, such as Pyongsong Market, but also at smaller marketplaces. The committee demanded that related officials move immediately to crack down on such practices.

“The meeting presented market documents indicating an increase in illegal transactions involving narcotics, foreign currency and nonferrous metals such as gold, silver and bronze. Officials also spoke of the urgent need to more strictly police such transactions,” the source said.

The provincial party committee observed that these illegal transactions have not been stamped out even though the government has stressed the need to do so every year and warned that markets that remain incapable of extirpating such behaviors will be shut down or relocated.

There was also a warning for marketplace officials. Since the government’s goal was to eliminate these illegal transactions by the end of the year, officials who failed to quickly sanction or eliminate the trade in nonferrous metals, foreign currency and narcotics may be relieved of their duties.

In the meeting, municipal and county commerce departments and bureaus and market managers were ordered to police illegal transactions taking place at the marketplaces under their jurisdiction and notified that, if necessary, a province-wide crackdown might be ordered.

The matters discussed in the meeting were subsequently communicated to markets and merchants throughout the province, which has had a chilling effect on the markets.

Notably, merchants are worried that the campaign to eliminate capitalist elements may reach beyond nonferrous metals, foreign currency and narcotics to imported foods and manufactured goods.

“Vendors couldn’t help noting that the orders were accompanied by a political slogan about blocking the spread of capitalistic elements through markets and are worried that they may be punished to set an example to the others,” the source said.

“The authorities mean business with this crackdown. Vendors who have been trading in nonferrous metals, foreign currency or narcotics are currently laying low and looking for ways to slip through the dragnet. They’re afraid that if the authorities look too closely into their past activities, they won’t be able to get off the hook,” he added.

Daily NK works with a network of sources in North Korea, China, and elsewhere. For security reasons, their identities remain anonymous.

Please send any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

Read in Korean

dailynk.com · by Jeong Seo-yeong · November 27, 2024

19. N. Korea expels money changers amid currency crackdown

Taking away the people's livelihood and ability to survive.

These efforts will backfire as the Korean people in the north find ways to survive despite the best efforts of the regime to oppress them

N. Korea expels money changers amid currency crackdown - Daily NK English

"...the more the regime resorts to controls and punishment, the more people try to get their hands on foreign currency,” a source told Daily NK

By Seon Hwa - November 27, 2024

dailynk.com · by Seon Hwa · November 27, 2024

FILE PHOTO: North Korean currency. (Daily NK)

North Korea has intensified its crackdown on foreign currency exchanges as market rates continue to climb. In recent weeks, authorities have banished multiple money changers and their families from Sinuiju to rural areas as punishment.

“Five money changers have been banished over the past month or so. Some of the families have been allowed to bring their possessions with them, but others have been sent away empty-handed,” a source in North Pyongan province told Daily NK recently.

In North Korea, banishment means being forcibly relocated to underdeveloped farming and mining areas. Banished individuals are also called “evacuees,” suggesting they have been “evacuated” from one area to another.

North Koreans consider banishment a severe punishment because once a family has been banished somewhere, there is little chance of the children being able to move somewhere better.

The banished moneychangers were punished for trading foreign currency privately in disregard of the state’s controls and sabotaging the state’s policy of stabilizing currency exchange rates.

In effect, the government is blaming private money changers for North Korea’s high market exchange rates, which are currently double what they were at the beginning of the year.

But North Koreans say the market rates have been soaring not because of money changers, but because of the government’s wrong-headed measures.

“The rising exchange rates obviously aren’t due to private currency exchange by a few money changers. It’s because the government keeps printing money for all these construction projects,” said a Sinuiju resident who knew one of the banished money changers.

“The state is obsessed with blaming and punishing people for not following its myriad rules without doing anything about the structural issues it ought to be addressing. The authorities seem to care little whether people starve to death,” he added.

Other North Koreans who heard about money changers being banished complained that the only people being sent away are small-time money changers who cannot afford the bribes.

In other words, the recent banishment of money changers is just an attempt by law enforcement agencies to show they are in line with the regime’s attempt to stabilize exchange rates. But the individuals who handle large volumes of foreign currency can get off scot-free, even if they are caught, by paying bribes and pulling strings.

That being said, the North Korean regime continues to publicize its ban on private money changing and punishment for violators of that ban.

“The authorities are holding lectures and training sessions that remind audiences not to trade foreign currency privately. But the more the regime resorts to controls and punishment, the more people try to get their hands on foreign currency,” the source said.

Daily NK works with a network of sources in North Korea, China, and elsewhere. For security reasons, their identities remain anonymous.

Please send any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

Read in Korean

dailynk.com · by Seon Hwa · November 27, 2024

20.N. Korea's failed whistleblower system: Informants left unprotected

There is no witness protection program in north Korea.

N. Korea's failed whistleblower system: Informants left unprotected - Daily NK English

"The authorities pressure workers preparing to return home to submit more reports," a source revealed, "bribing them with Chinese yuan or used clothing"

By Lee Sang Yong, Hwang Hyun-uk - November 27, 2024

dailynk.com · by Lee Sang Yong, Hwang Hyun-uk · November 27, 2024

Dozens of North Korean female workers out for a walk at Mount Kumgang Park in Dandong, Liaoning Province, China, on the morning of May 18. (©The Daily NK)

North Korea’s Public Reporting System Law encourages overseas workers to report their colleagues’ illegal activities, but the system has proven ineffective due to inadequate informant protection and mishandling of reports.

Based on Daily NK’s investigation of Chinese seafood processing plants, while direct phone lines connect factory reporting “boxes” to North Korean authorities like the embassy, workers are unable to safely use these reporting channels.

A source in China told Daily NK recently that a worker at one seafood processing plant in Jilin province “reported illegal behavior in mid-November of last year, but was then sexually assaulted by a manager.” The source said the official who received the report “called the female worker in and blackmailed her, asking how she’d like it if he told her comrades that she was a mole.”

After being labeled a “psychiatric patient” by officials, the worker was forcibly sent back to North Korea. Her case spread through the factory, with coworkers lamenting that she was merely following orders to report issues, only to meet such a fate.

“Workers coerced into becoming informants live under constant threat,” the source told Daily NK. “They’re trapped – reporting colleagues brings punishment, but refusing to report does too. Many women say the stress is unbearable.”

North Korea’s Public Reporting System Law, intended to strengthen internal control, is fundamentally flawed. With inadequate protections for informants, the system leaves them exposed to retaliation and abuse, often resulting in severe human rights violations.

“A reporting system should serve justice and protect public interest,” says Hwang Hyun-uk, senior researcher at Daily NK’s AND Center. “But North Korea has turned it into a tool of surveillance and repression to preserve the regime.”

Authorities prioritize ideological control over informant protection

The system’s flaws are evident in its reward practices – offering gifts or vacations to informants inadvertently reveals their identities. “Despite authorities promising stronger protections this year, people remain fearful of making reports,” the source revealed.

A case in Dandong, Liaoning province late last year illustrates these dangers. After reporting a colleague’s corruption, a worker vanished following separate interrogations by a North Korean embassy security agent. “There was no way for them to face their coworkers after that,” the source explained. “They returned to North Korea soon after, likely struggling with the guilt of becoming an informant.”

Workers also feel a heavy burden due to concern that filing reports will worsen their workplace relations and lead to retaliation.

“People avoid snitching on colleagues even if they see them talking on the phone with outsiders to ask for daily necessities,” the source said. “This could also be because they feel nervous about filing reports, but more importantly, it’s because they fear ruining their relationships with their colleagues.”

The source added, “Since they have to live with these people when they return to North Korea one day, they don’t want to make anyone their enemy.”

FILE PHOTO: In this photograph taken in June 2019, North Korean workers are seen entering a store in Dandong, China. (Daily NK)

“North Korea’s Public Reporting System Law is a means of control that violates the individual’s basic rights and destroys social trust to stabilize the regime,” Hwang said. “The crimes you’re supposed to report are excessively broad, and the law lacks mechanisms to protect identities and secrets, exposing both informants and informees to human rights violations.”

The system violates multiple international laws, including the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights and International Labour Organization conventions prohibiting compulsory labor conditions.

Forcing workers to inform on colleagues while mismanaging the reporting system creates a toxic work environment of psychological pressure and insecurity, contrary to international labor standards. Yet North Korean authorities remain focused on gathering misconduct reports rather than protecting informant identities and confidentiality.

“The authorities pressure workers preparing to return home to submit more reports,” the source revealed, “bribing them with Chinese yuan or used clothing.” The manipulation extends further – managers not only carelessly expose informants but also use psychological tactics, telling workers that “superiors already know everything” to coerce additional reporting.

North Korean authorities have intensified their reporting demands since amending the Public Reporting System Law to include “reactionary thought and culture” as reportable offenses.

“They’re now fixated on reports about workplace attitudes, unauthorized outings, phone calls, internet use, ideological leanings, suspicious remarks, and complaints,” the source explained. “This has created a tense atmosphere where workers constantly watch each other.”

Daily NK works with a network of sources in North Korea, China, and elsewhere. For security reasons, their identities remain anonymous.

Please send any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

Read in Korean

dailynk.com · by Lee Sang Yong, Hwang Hyun-uk · November 27, 2024

21. Trump team considers 'direct talks' with N. Korea's Kim: report

The Trump team must understand the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime.

The Trump team must understand this key strategic assumption as it develops korea policy and strategy:

North Korea will never negotiate away its nuclear capabilities as long as the Kim family regime remains in power.

The Trump team must not walk into Kim Jong Un's political warfare trap.

Engage, sure. But do it as part of a superior political warfare strategy that will lead to transformation on the Korean peninsula.

Trump team considers 'direct talks' with N. Korea's Kim: report

The Korea Times · November 27, 2024

U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un talk before a meeting in the Demilitarized Zone(DMZ) in Panmunjom, Korea, in this June 30, 2019 photo. AFP-Yonhap

President-elect Donald Trump's team is considering "pursuing direct talks" with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in hopes of reducing the risks of armed conflict, Reuters has reported.

Citing two sources, Reuters reported Tuesday (U.S. time) that "several" members of Trump's team see "a direct approach" from the president-elect as most likely to break the ice with Kim.

It said that the policy discussions are "fluid" and Trump has not yet made a final decision on the matter.

In his first term, Trump held three meetings with Kim, first in Singapore in 2018, followed by Vietnam and the truce village of Panmunjom on the inter-Korean border in 2019. However, no concrete results were achieved in denuclearizing North Korea from the talks.

The subsequent administration of President Joe Biden has not engaged directly with North Korea, while Pyongyang has further sophisticated its nuclear and missile arsenal.

Trump's reelection reignited prospects for his summit diplomacy with Kim, especially after the president-elect named former State Department official Alex Wong as deputy national security adviser, noting that Wong "helped negotiate my summit with" Kim.

Reuters reported that an initial goal of Trump would be to "reestablish basic engagement," but further policy aims or a precise timetable have not been determined.

During his second presidential campaign, Trump hinted at a policy of pursuing direct engagement with Kim, boasting about his personal ties with him.

"I got along with Kim Jong-un of North Korea," Trump said during a campaign rally in August. "We also looked at his nuclear capability. It's very substantial. ... You know, getting along is a good thing. It's not a bad thing," he added.

Nearly three weeks after Trump's reelection, Kim Jong-un has not mentioned his presidential win.

Last week, Kim said during his speech at an arms exhibition in Pyongyang that North Korea had gone as far as possible in negotiations with the U.S., but it only confirmed the unchanging invasive and hostile policy toward North Korea.

He said there will never be an occasion for his country to relinquish the "pendulum of the military balance" on its own.

Some have voiced skepticism about the prospects of resuming summitry between Trump and Kim, citing North Korea's significantly advanced nuclear and missile programs, its close alignment with Russia and more pressing security concerns for the U.S., such as the Russia-Ukraine war. (Yonhap)

The Korea Times · November 27, 2024

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

Access NSS HERE

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