Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

"Freedom consists not in doing what we like, but in having the right to do what we ought."

Pope John Paul II

"I belong to a nation which over the past centuries has experienced many hardships and reverses. The world reacted with silence or with mere sympathy when Polish frontiers were crossed by invading armies and the sovereign state had to succumb to brutal force."

Lech Walesa

"The only good is knowledge and the only evil is ignorance." - Socrates

1. Fight Like Nato: Ukrainian Infantrymen Reveal What They Need to Defeat Russia - Kyiv Post - Ukraine's Global Voice

2. Chinese Protests Put Xi Jinping in a Bind

3. Space Force opens first regional command headquarters in Indo-Pacific

4. At the heart of China's protests against zero-Covid, young people cry for freedom

5. Three scenarios for how war in Ukraine could play out

6. 'This Week' Transcript 11-27-22 Andrew Milburn Mozart Group in Ukraine

7. Ukrainian women have started learning a crucial war skill: how to fly a drone

8. Yuriy Shukhevych - A Tribute - Kyiv Post - Ukraine's Global Voice

9. Special Operations News Update - Nov 28, 2022 | SOF News

10. Is China heading toward another Tiananmen Square moment?

11. Biden admin scrambles to track $20B in Ukraine aid as House Republicans warn of audits

12. Iran calls for US to be kicked out of 2022 World Cup after it changes Iran flag on social media to show support for protesters

13. China’s Covid protests could go anywhere from here

1. Fight Like Nato: Ukrainian Infantrymen Reveal What They Need to Defeat Russia - Kyiv Post - Ukraine's Global Voice

High praise for NATO (UK) instructors.

Excerpts:

Volodymyr Kadyiev, 54, never planned to join the infantry. Before the war he ran a successful construction business in Hostomel, north of Kyiv. As a raw volunteer in a territorial defense battalion deployed in the path of the Kremlin’s assault on the capital, he found himself handed an AK-74 he had never fired and in charge of a defensive strongpoint overlooking a road intersection.

...

Myronishchenko and other AFU small unit leaders told Kyiv Post, without exception, that in their view as infantry soldiers, by far the most effective foreign assistance they have seen, more even than Western weapons, has been the basic military training for new Ukrainian recruits conducted by NATO instructors. Particularly-praised were training courses led primarily by British instructors in England. New Ukrainian troops are now arriving at combat units, he said, not just well-trained in weapons and basic infantry skills – but even more important, “they think like NATO soldiers,” he said.

Fight Like Nato: Ukrainian Infantrymen Reveal What They Need to Defeat Russia - Kyiv Post - Ukraine's Global Voice

kyivpost.com · by Liubov Skichko · November 28, 2022

Ukraine’s foot soldiers say they’ll fight Russian invaders in any case, but they would do it more effectively and fewer of them would die if they were equipped with modern combat optics, had more time to train to NATO standards, and were led by a professional corps of small unit combat leaders.

The Ukrainian army’s infantry has demonstrated that it can defend ground fiercely, but units might struggle when asked to perform more complicated missions like night reconnaissance, clearing a hostile village, or operating in cooperation with tanks or artillery, nine Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) veterans ranked corporal to company commander told Kyiv Post in a series of November interviews.

Volodymyr Kadyiev, 54, never planned to join the infantry. Before the war he ran a successful construction business in Hostomel, north of Kyiv. As a raw volunteer in a territorial defense battalion deployed in the path of the Kremlin’s assault on the capital, he found himself handed an AK-74 he had never fired and in charge of a defensive strongpoint overlooking a road intersection.

Kadyiev and his mates had never trained together, had no communications gear save commercial mobile phones and had never been to a firing range. They learned how to operate a checkpoint from the internet. Relatives and neighbors brought them food. Their only optics was a pair of hunting binoculars.

Once the Russians retreated, in April, Kadyiev set out to help his unit shoot straighter and see better in the dark. In a European country it would have been easy: the state would just buy rifle sights and night vision devices and hand them out.

In wartime Ukraine, Kadyiev said, it’s been more complicated. He had to contact a friend in the U.S., who knew someone in the military equipment trade, who found a Houston distributor called Precision Arms, then volunteers collected donations, money was transferred, Precision received an order for several dozen units, and three months later a minority of Kadyiev’s 300-man battalion unit had made in the U.S. gunsights on their rifles.

Soldiers at a firing range in Kyiv Region told Kyiv Post the American optics, with four-times magnification and a red dot target pip, are easy to use and ideal for split-second engagements. But until volunteers shake down friends and relatives for enough donations money to buy more, the battalion won’t get any more modern gunsights, Kadyiev said.

A Ukrainian territorial defense battalion fighter takes aim during training in November in Kyiv Region. He is equipped with a Soviet-era AK-74 automatic rifle marched with a modern tactical gunsight made in the U.S. and purchased and delivered to his unit by volunteers. Soldiers using the gunsight praised its accuracy, but said the AK was not designed to be used with modern gunsights. NOTE: The soldier in this image requested he be photographed with a U.S.-Ukraine patch during a press visit to his unit, as the insignia is not normally worn. Photo by Volodymyr Kadyiev.

“This is one item for one part of a single battalion. Ukraine has hundreds of thousands of soldiers fighting in the war,” he said. “Obviously, you can’t equip all those soldiers with volunteers and donations.”

Volodymyr Lysovsky, 31, ran a Harley-Davidson repair shop in the Kyiv bedroom community town of Bucha. He said he volunteered for local defense forces on the first day of the war, then transferred to a territorial defense battalion and later, promoted to sergeant, went east to fight with a special operations infantry outfit as a sniper. He fought mostly in urban battles in Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.

“When our infantry fights, it’s close in, 50-100 meters. Ninety-nine percent of the fighting is in villages. It’s all split second. Firefights come down to who reacts faster and more correctly,” Lysovsky said. ” You need the right tools, you need practice, and you need experience.”

An Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) foreign fighter takes a break at a Kharkiv training range in November. An infantryman, he is armed with a NATO-caliber assault rifle and privately-purchased gunsights. Some AFU soldiers prefer NATO-standard rifles because, they say, ammunition for them is more reliable and accurate than the sometimes Soviet-era ammunition that most of the AFU uses. Photo provided by Stefan Korshak.

Ukraine’s infantrymen would benefit greatly were they able replace the widespread AK-74 rifle of Soviet vintage with the American M4 carbine or German G36 assault rifle, because those weapons use high-quality NATO cartridges, while the AFU is supplied with sometimes iffy AK-74 rifle ammunition sourced from around the world, Lysovsky said.

“Captured Russian cartidges are very reliable, but some of the stuff from the Balkans and China, you can’t always depend on it,” he said.

Serhiy Hrach*, a regular army captain deployed in Kharkiv Region, in a November interview at a firing range told Kyiv Post that only a small percentage of Ukraine’s infantrymen probably meet NATO individual performance standards. Basic individual soldier field skills like marksmanship, ability to treat a bullet or shell splinter wound, or simply reporting accurately about something spotted on the battlefield are common shortfalls, he said.

“That sort of thing is systematically trained…and standardized in NATO units,” Hrach said. “But in our AFU that often depends on what a soldier happens to know and what personally feels like learning. Things are changing slowly but in our army right now training is bottom-up.”

A Canadian trainer explains use of an anti-tank mine to Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) soldiers during training in Great Britain. Multiple AFU combat leaders told Kyiv Post that Ukrainian soldiers passing through the Britian-led training process, called Operation Interflex, arrive at fighting units with excellent infantry skills and a mindset of initiative and personal responsibility common in NATO, in contrast to Soviet-era military traditions still present in some parts of the Ukrainian military.

“The Ukrainian army’s skills in combined arms maneuver are improving as they gain experience and as larger numbers of trained soldiers reach the front,” said Stephen Biddle, Professor of International and Public Affairs at School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University. “(I)t would appear that their military proficiency has been growing over time.”

Hrach and others interviewed for this story singled out the AFU’s shortage of proper small unit leaders, specifically professional sergeants, as possibly the most critical gap in upping AFU soldier and combat unit capacity.

“In the AFU, soldiers follow not the rank but the most experienced guy. In NATO that leader is a sergeant, but we are at war and there’s no way our army can train enough sergeants properly. So we make do as best we can,” he said.

Sergeant Maksym Myronishchenko* serves in an air assault brigade currently deployed in Bakhmut sector, currently the scene of the most intense fighting along the entire 2,000 kilometer contact line. Myronishchenko in a telephone interview told Kyiv Post that an experienced sergeant is usually the difference between survival and becoming an early casualty for new soldiers. He said time in combat and rising gradually in the ranks is the best route to becoming an effective sergeant. Myronishchenko said he joined the AFU as a volunteer in 2014 shortly after Russia’s invasion of Donbas, became a professional soldier in 2016, and pinned on his sergeant’s stripes in 2019.

“But guys like me are few and far between, not everyone stays in the service, and not everyone survives”, he said. “Now we have a giant war, our army is going to the attack, our soldiers are going to have to learn on the job, we don’t have enough proper sergeants, and in war you pay for mistakes in blood.”

Myronishchenko and other AFU small unit leaders told Kyiv Post, without exception, that in their view as infantry soldiers, by far the most effective foreign assistance they have seen, more even than Western weapons, has been the basic military training for new Ukrainian recruits conducted by NATO instructors. Particularly-praised were training courses led primarily by British instructors in England. New Ukrainian troops are now arriving at combat units, he said, not just well-trained in weapons and basic infantry skills – but even more important, “they think like NATO soldiers,” he said.

*Interview subject requested a pseudonym be used for security reasons. He identified himself to a Kyiv Post reporter.

Kyiv area businessman and Territorial Defense volunteer Volodymyr Kadyiev. His 300-man unit was part of the force that prevented Russian capture of the capital in February and March. He wants to supply his unit modern infantry equipment like modern gunsights, night vision scopes, personal medical kits and secure walkie-talkies, but so far the only way to do that is by collecting donations. Photo provided by Kadyiev.

kyivpost.com · by Liubov Skichko · November 28, 2022

2. Chinese Protests Put Xi Jinping in a Bind

These protests seem pretty amazing given the nature of the PRC suppression capabilities.

What will this lead to? Another Tiananmen ending? If so where? Or is this spreading too far and too fast to contain it?

Chinese Protests Put Xi Jinping in a Bind

Lifting restrictions would risk a wave of Covid infections, while crushing demonstrations would have uncertain consequences

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-protesters-channel-their-anger-directly-at-xi-jinping-11669660318?mod=hp_lead_pos5

By Lingling WeiFollow

Updated Nov. 28, 2022 4:56 pm ET

President Xi Jinping faces a difficult choice between loosening China’s zero-tolerance Covid-19 policy or doubling down on restrictions that have locked down neighborhoods and stifled the country’s economy over the past three years.

Neither option is a good one for a regime focused on stability. Stock markets around the globe declined Monday as protests in China fueled worries among investors about the outlook for the world’s second-largest economy.

“Xi’s leadership is in a bind,” said Yuen Yuen Ang, a political scientist focused on China at the University of Michigan. “If they compromise and relax zero-Covid, they fear it will encourage mass protests. If they repress more, it will create wider and deeper grievances.”

Protesters across China have directly challenged the authority of the Chinese leader and the Communist Party in scenes unthinkable just a month ago, when Mr. Xi secured a third term in power.

In Shanghai over the weekend, protesters used call-and-response chanting to demand political change. In Beijing, crowds shouted “Freedom.” In other large cities, demonstrators marched holding blank sheets of paper—a swipe at government censorship.

China experts say the protests are unlikely to translate into a leadership change, in the near term at least. But Beijing’s dilemma is a tough one. It could lift restrictions and risk a large and potentially deadly wave of Covid infections that could undermine its credibility. Or it could crack down on the demonstrators and stick with a strict pandemic strategy that large parts of the population are clearly fed up with.

All three benchmark U.S. stock indexes closed more than 1% lower on Monday as investors worried that the protests would lead to more market volatility.

Widespread and public outpourings of political grievance have been extremely rare in a country where people have long consented to obey party authorities—as long as they deliver prosperity and allow citizens relative freedom in their personal lives.

People sang slogans and chanted for political change on a street in Shanghai on Sunday.

PHOTO: HECTOR RETAMAL/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES

Police cars were parked on a Shanghai street on Monday, a day after rare demonstrations were held.

PHOTO: HECTOR RETAMAL/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES

The protests put in stark relief the fraying of that social contract, showing that the climbing economic and social costs of China’s zero-Covid policies—coupled with an increasingly authoritarian regime’s zero-tolerance for dissent—have driven many to a kind of breaking point.

Demonstrations aren’t unusual in China, but they are largely over local grievances such as unpaid wages, land disputes or pollution. Since the Tiananmen Square protests in 1989, the party has made it a priority to prevent nationwide protests of a political nature.

The current wave of unrest started last week in the remote northwestern region of Xinjiang after 10 people died in a fire. Residents contended that Covid restrictions were partly to blame for delaying rescuers and contributing to the death toll. Officials said some barriers had to be moved but attributed the delay to parked cars in the way.

In the days since, the anger has spread across China. On Monday, authorities moved broadly to prevent any new protests, including dozens of uniformed and undercover police swarming the area around a highway bridge in Beijing where a lone protester hung a banner denouncing Mr. Xi in October. On Sunday, protesters had chanted lines from the banners.

‘We Want Freedom’: China’s Covid Protests Spread to Major Cities

Space Force opens first regional command headquarters in Indo-Pacific

militarytimes.com · by Rachel Cohen · November 23, 2022

The Space Force on Tuesday opened a regional command center at Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam, Hawaii, to manage military space operations across the Indo-Pacific.

U.S. Space Forces Indo-Pacific is the first in a string of new component commands that will become the service’s main touchpoints around the world.

Brig. Gen. Anthony Mastalir, the former commander of Space Launch Delta 30 (previously the 30th Space Wing) at Vandenberg Space Force Base, California, and head of space forces in Air Forces Central Command, will serve as the organization’s first commander.

Space Force seeks a bigger voice in military operations

The Space Force is vying for influence after the space enterprise has been in the background for several decades.

“Space underpins every aspect of warfighting here, where we must overcome the tyranny of distance on a daily basis, where space enables access to otherwise denied areas, to increase range and lethality of our weapon systems, and where space is key to our ability to project power at the time and place of our choosing,” Mastalir said.

It’s the first time that the U.S. military will have a staff solely focused on incorporating satellite- and radar-based surveillance, target tracking, communications and more in the Indo-Pacific.

That work was previously handled by air component commands like Pacific Air Forces and U.S. Air Forces in Europe.

Space-focused component commands have been in the works for two years as the Space Force builds out its own warfighting enterprise.

Space Force planning for new component in the Middle East alongside AFCENT

Space Force leaders are hashing out a plan to create a new group under U.S. Central Command to coordinate what military space assets to use in the region.

The Indo-Pacific region took precedence because it is home to the most pressing national security threats facing the United States: the Chinese, Russian and North Korean militaries as well as a network of terror groups.

A central mission for Space Force guardians in the Indo-Pacific will be to safeguard American assets in orbit from physical and digital attack — particularly from China.

“Space must be deeply integrated with the rest of the joint team,” Chief of Space Operations Gen. B. Chance Saltzman said at the command’s activation ceremony Tuesday.

He added of China: “This is never more true than in this [region], where we find ourselves competing against a thinking adversary who continues to field counter-space systems as well as their own exquisite, space-based support systems for their increasingly capable terrestrial forces.”

INDOPACOM boss Adm. John Aquilino credited the Space Force for enabling the “complete synchronization” of American military forces across the vast Pacific Ocean in the face of those challenges.

Saltzman assumes command of US Space Force

Gen. Chance Saltzman, who took the reins from Gen. Jay Raymond, is just the second official to assume leadership of the service.

In his new role, Mastalir will report to Aquilino to offer space capabilities as part of the menu of options available for peacetime or combat missions.

The Space Force organizes, trains and equips troops to operate and maintain space systems from satellites to rocket launch facilities. It then provides those resources to a combatant command through its respective component, like it will do for INDOPACOM through Space Forces Indo-Pacific. Leaders within the combatant commands then execute daily missions using those available resources.

Saltzman told reporters earlier this year that U.S. Central Command and U.S. European Command are next in line for their own space component commands.

When each might come to fruition remains unclear; Saltzman said the timelines are fluid because of the myriad steps involved for planning and approval. The service previously said CENTCOM would be the first to get that dedicated space support, but the order has shuffled around since then as priorities have shifted.

That work will continue as the Space Force passes its third birthday next month. Its workforce has grown to about 16,000 uniformed and civilian personnel but remains the smallest military branch by far.

“You are the guardians of INDOPACOM,” Mastalir said. “You are outranked and outnumbered by every other component here. I don’t care.”

“I expect you to be confident and bold. I expect you to uphold the ‘Guardian Ideal,’ character of the highest order, connection to the joint force, our allies and partners, commitment to your mission, and courage to explore the new and innovative ways we will need to integrate your expertise into this fight,” he said.

About Rachel S. Cohen

Rachel Cohen joined Air Force Times as senior reporter in March 2021. Her work has appeared in Air Force Magazine, Inside Defense, Inside Health Policy, the Frederick News-Post (Md.), the Washington Post, and others.

4. At the heart of China's protests against zero-Covid, young people cry for freedom

Freedom. It is something all human beings desire and deserve. You are either for freedom for all people or .... well ... I do not know what else you could be for together than freedom.

But I also add this tweet thread from Dr. Sungmin Cho who is an expert on China at APCSS. Very interesting analysis here.

Sungmin Cho

@sungminchohi

Nov 27

At this critical moment in Chinese history, US government& politicians are better to refrain from commenting on it for now. As @SuishengZhao

effectively conceptualizes, Chinese youths are “liberal nationalists”: they are liberal on domestic issues but nationalistic on external..

Sungmin Cho

@sungminchohi

Nov 27

issues at the same time. It is wrong to assume that they expect US support because they are liberal against XJP today, as much as it was wrong to assume that they supported XJP because they were nationalistic against US yesterday. The US showing excitement/support would only be..

Sungmin Cho

@sungminchohi

Nov 27

distracting and give the XJP regime an opportunity to divert the attention at this moment. So it is best for the US gov’t/politicians to quietly observe what is happening in China for the next 2-3 days or a week. For better or worse, let them lead the way.

Sungmin Cho

@sungminchohi

Nov 27

#1. XJP would have no choice but to relax zero-covid policy in the end. #2. The policy change would be welcomed, even temporarily lifting his popularity. XJP would take credit (of correcting his own failures). #3. But covid will quickly spread, esp.among unvaccinated elders . #4.

Sungmin Cho

@sungminchohi

Nov 27

Great Leap Forward, Mao delegated authority to Liu Shaoqi & Deng Xiaoping, asking them to "clean the mess." I believe Liu &Deng faithfully did their job, without intent to challenge Mao. But their pragmatic polices got popularity inside/outside the Party, undermining Mao's...

#4. I am not sure how Chinese people would feel about it. Mass deaths would not threaten the XJP regime. Historically mass deaths have not led to the downfall of top leadership in China. #5. But it caused elite division and factional strife. Mao Zedong, after the failure of...

Sungmin Cho

@sungminchohi

Nov 27

authority. #6. If history is any guidance, this series of protests may force XJP to change his signature policy, like Mao eventually did with GLF. They would not threaten XJP's authority directly, but may be the beginning of internal criticism /elite strife against Xi.

Sungmin Cho

@sungminchohi

Nov 27

At the heart of China's protests against zero-Covid, young people cry for freedom | CNN

CNN · by Nectar Gan,Selina Wang · November 28, 2022

- Source: CNN

A version of this story appeared in CNN’s Meanwhile in China newsletter, a three-times-a-week update exploring what you need to know about the country’s rise and how it impacts the world. Sign up here.

CNN —

For the first time in decades, thousands of people have defied Chinese authorities to protest at universities and on the streets of major cities, demanding to be freed not only from incessant Covid tests and lockdowns, but strict censorship and the Communist Party’s tightening grip over all aspects of life.

Across the country, “want freedom” has become a rallying cry for a groundswell of protests mainly led by the younger generation, some too young to have taken part in previous acts of open dissent against the government.

“Give me liberty or give me death!” crowds by the hundreds shouted in several cities, according to videos circulating online, as vigils to mark the deaths of at least 10 people in a fire in Xinjiang spiraled into political rallies.

Protests against Covid measures in Urumqi city, Xinjiang, China, can be seen in a screen grab obtained from a video released November 25.

Obtained by Reuters

Protests erupt across China in unprecedented challenge to Xi Jinping's zero-Covid policy

Videos circulating online seem to suggest China’s strict zero-Covid policy initially prevented emergency workers from accessing the scene, angering residents across the country who have endured three years of varying Covid controls.

Some protesters chanted for free speech, democracy, the rule of law, human rights, and other political demands across cities from the eastern financial hub of Shanghai to the capital Beijing, the southern metropolis of Guangzhou and Chengdu in the west.

CNN has verified protests in 16 locations, with reports of others held in dozens of other cities and universities across the country.

Video Ad Feedback

Protesters take to Hong Kong's streets in solidarity with mainland

02:11 - Source: CNN

While protests in several parts of China appear to have largely dispersed peacefully over the weekend, some met a stronger response from authorities – and security has been tightened across cities in a country were authorities have far-reaching surveillance and security capabilities.

In Beijing, a heavy police presence was apparent on Monday evening, a day after protests broke out there. Police vehicles, many parked with their lights flashing, lined eerily quiet streets throughout parts of the capital, including near Liangmaqiao in the city’s central Chaoyang district, where a large crowd of protesters had gathered Sunday night.

When asked Monday whether “the widespread display of anger and frustration” seen across the country could prompt China to move away from its zero-Covid approach, a Foreign Ministry spokesman dismissed suggestions of dissent.

“What you mentioned does not reflect what actually happened,” said spokesperson Zhao Lijian, who added that authorities had been “making adjustments” to their Covid policies based on “realities on the ground.”

“We believe that with the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party and the Chinese people our fight against Covid-19 will be successful,” he said.

Demonstrators hold up blank sheets of paper during a protest in Beijing on November 28.

Bloomberg/Getty Images

In a symbolic protest against ever-tightening censorship, young demonstrators across China held up sheets of white paper – a metaphor for the countless critical posts, news articles and outspoken social media accounts that were wiped from the internet.

“I think in a just society, no one should be criminalized for their speech. There shouldn’t be only one voice in our society – we need a variety of voices,” a Beijing protester told CNN in the early hours of Monday as he marched down the city’s Third Ring Road with a thin pile of white A4 paper.

“I hope in the future, I will no longer be holding a white piece of paper for what I really want to express,” said the protester, who CNN is not naming due to concerns about repercussions for speaking out.

Police form a cordon during a protest against Chinas strict zero COVID measures on November 27, 2022 in Beijing, China.

Kevin Frayer/Getty Images

Rare protests are spreading across China. Here's what you need to know

The United Nations on Monday urged Chinese authorities to guarantee people’s “right to demonstrate peacefully,” Secretary General spokesperson Stephane Dujarric said at a daily briefing.

Britain’s Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said China’s ruling Communist Party should “take notice” of the protests.

“Protests against the Chinese government are rare. And so when they do happen, I think it’s worth us taking note, but more importantly, I think it’s incumbent on the Chinese government to take notice of its own people,” Cleverly told reporters.

Throughout the weekend, censors moved swiftly to scrub videos and photos of the protests from the Chinese internet, though the startling images made headlines worldwide.

In online commentaries, Chinese state media made no mention of the protests, instead focusing on the strengths of Beijing’s anti-Covid policies, emphasizing they were both “scientific and effective.”

But to many protesters, the demonstrations are about much more than Covid – they’re bringing together many liberal-minded young people whose attempts to speak out might otherwise be thwarted by strict online censorship.

A Shanghai resident in their 20s who took part in the candlelight vigil in the early hours of Sunday said they were greeted by other young people holding white papers, flowers and shouting “want freedom” as they walked toward the makeshift memorial.

“My friends and I have all experienced Shanghai’s lockdown, and the so-called ‘iron fist’ (of the state) has fallen on all of us,” they told CNN, “That night, I felt that I could finally do something. I couldn’t sit still, I had to go.”

They broke into tears quietly in the crowd as the chants demanding freedom grew louder.

“At that moment, I felt I’m not alone,” they said. “I realized that I’m not the only one who thinks this way.”

Shanghai residents held a candlelight vigil to mourn the victims of the Xinjiang fire on November 26.

Political dissent

In some cases, the protests have taken on an even more defiant tone and openly called for political change.

During the first night of the demonstrations in Shanghai, a crowd shouted “Step down, Xi Jinping! Step down, Communist Party!” in an unprecedented, direct challenge to the top leader. On Sunday night, some protesters again chanted for the removal of Xi.

In Chengdu, the protesters did not name Xi, but their message was hard to miss. “Opposition to dictatorship!” chanted hundreds of people packing the bustling river banks in a popular food and shopping district on Sunday evening, according to videos and a participant.

“We don’t want lifelong rulers. We don’t want emperors!” they shouted in a thinly veiled reference to the Chinese leader, who last month began a norm-shattering third term in office.

According to the participant, the crowd also protested against revisions to the party charter and the state constitution – which enabled Xi to further cement his hold on power and scrap presidential term limits.

Much like in Shanghai, the gathering started as a small candlelight vigil for people killed in the fire in Urumqi on Thursday.

Demonstrators in Chengdu held a candlelight vigil for the victims of the Xinjiang fire on November 27.

Obtained by CNN

But as more people gathered, the vigil turned into a louder arena to air political grievances.

“Everyone started shouting these slogans very naturally,” the participant said. “It is so rare that we have such a large-scale gathering and demonstration. The words of mourning didn’t feel enough, and we had to shout out some words that we want to say.”

To her, the experience of suffocating censorship inevitably fuels desire for “institutional and spiritual freedom,” and mourning the victims and demanding democracy and freedom are two “inseparable” things.

“We all know that the reason why we have to keep undergoing lockdowns and Covid tests is that this is a political movement, not a scientific and logical response of epidemic prevention,” she said. “That’s why we have more political demands other than lifting lockdowns.”

The Chengdu protester said she felt encouraged by the wave of demonstrations sweeping the country.

“It turns out there are so many people who are wide awake,” she said. “I feel like I can see a glimmer of light coming through ahead.”

CNN · by Nectar Gan,Selina Wang · November 28, 2022

5. Three scenarios for how war in Ukraine could play out

Excerpts:

In the first, Russia snatches victory from the jaws of defeat. Russia’s army stabilises the front lines over the winter months, while building new battalions with freshly mobilised recruits.

...

Far more likely is a second scenario: stalemate. Russia mobilises hundreds of thousands of young men, but cannot turn them into effective fighters. All the best trainers are on the front lines. Experienced officers are dead or already deployed. The recruits are fashioned into basic light-infantry units, lacking armoured vehicles and unfit to go on the offensive—but able to fill trenches and man fortifications.

...

The third scenario is the most encouraging—and perhaps the most dangerous. Ukraine keeps the initiative and the momentum, inflicting heavy damage on Russian forces as they leave Kherson and then bringing its long-range HIMAR s rockets within range of Crimea for the first time. Russian lines in Luhansk collapse, with Ukraine recapturing Severodonetsk and then quickly moving farther east. As Russian casualties mount, new recruits refuse to fight.

Three scenarios for how war in Ukraine could play out

The best one for Ukraine is also the most dangerous

The Economist

ANY SEASONED intelligence analyst might have scoffed had they been told in March 2022 that Ukraine would still be an independent state eight months later; that Ukraine’s army would have killed or wounded 80,000 Russians; that the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet would be at the bottom of that sea; and that Ukraine’s air force would still be flying. Ukraine has defied expectations. It is winning the war. But winter is coming and Russia is mobilising. Consider three scenarios for the year ahead.

In the first, Russia snatches victory from the jaws of defeat. Russia’s army stabilises the front lines over the winter months, while building new battalions with freshly mobilised recruits. Meanwhile, Republicans in America block new arms packages for Ukraine, as supplies from Europe run out. Russia’s defence industry is starved of semiconductors and specialised equipment, but churns out enough basic armour and artillery to equip the new forces.

By the spring, the new Russian units go on the attack, forcing back a Ukrainian force that is weary from months of offensive action. Russian drones continue to hammer Ukraine’s energy and water infrastructure. As summer arrives, Ukraine is on the back foot. Russia captures Kryvyi Rih, a key industrial town north of Kherson, and Slovyansk and Kramatorsk in Donetsk. Western countries urge Ukraine to accept a Russian offer of a ceasefire. Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, has little choice but to accept. In the months, perhaps years, that follow, Russia assiduously rearms for another attempt on Kyiv.

A Putin ultimatum: stop, or face the use of nuclear weapons

Far more likely is a second scenario: stalemate. Russia mobilises hundreds of thousands of young men, but cannot turn them into effective fighters. All the best trainers are on the front lines. Experienced officers are dead or already deployed. The recruits are fashioned into basic light-infantry units, lacking armoured vehicles and unfit to go on the offensive—but able to fill trenches and man fortifications.

Russia, having announced a withdrawal from Kherson city in November, safely evacuates the 30,000 or so troops it had on the west bank of the Dnieper river. They retreat east, leaving huge amounts of weaponry behind. It is a triumph for Ukraine, but it ultimately puts Russia in a stronger military position, with the river protecting its left flank. The Ukrainian advance slows to a crawl; Ukrainian troops take heavy casualties for each kilometre of territory won.

Unable to win the war on the battlefield, Mr Putin then tries to prolong it long enough to undermine Ukraine’s economy, sap its morale through strikes on civilian infrastructure and exhaust its partners. Europe struggles to fill its gas-storage sites during 2023, causing blackouts as winter arrives. Mr Putin aims to hold out until late 2024, when he hopes Donald Trump will retake the White House and end support for Ukraine. But it is a high-stakes gamble: Russian opinion turns against the war, its economy shrivels and Mr Putin looks ever more vulnerable.

The third scenario is the most encouraging—and perhaps the most dangerous. Ukraine keeps the initiative and the momentum, inflicting heavy damage on Russian forces as they leave Kherson and then bringing its long-range HIMAR s rockets within range of Crimea for the first time. Russian lines in Luhansk collapse, with Ukraine recapturing Severodonetsk and then quickly moving farther east. As Russian casualties mount, new recruits refuse to fight. Western countries rush new air-defence systems to Ukraine, blunting the impact of Russia’s terror tactics, based on its rapidly dwindling arsenal of precision missiles.

In the spring Mr Zelensky orders his army to open a new front in Zaporizhia. Five brigades slice through Russian lines, cutting Mr Putin’s land bridge to Crimea and encircling Mariupol by the summer. Ukraine moves its HIMARs rocket launchers into the south, targeting ports, bases and depots in Russian-occupied Crimea. Ukraine threatens to enter the peninsula. Mr Putin issues an ultimatum: stop, or face the use of nuclear weapons. Victory is within sight. But so, too, are the risks that it brings.■

Shashank Joshi: Defence editor, The Economist

This article appeared in the Europe section of the print edition of The World Ahead 2023 under the headline “Conflicting possibilities”

The Economist

6. 'This Week' Transcript 11-27-22 Andrew Milburn Mozart Group in Ukraine

Video and entire transcript at the link. Excerpt with Andrew Milburn below.

'This Week' Transcript 11-27-22 Andrew Milburn Mozart Group in Ukraine

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/week-transcript-11-27-22-rep-michael-mccaul/story?id=94000797

ANNOUNCER: From ABC News, it's "This Week." Here now, co-anchor Martha Raddatz.

RADDATZ (on camera): Good morning and welcome to “This Week.”

We begin this holiday season on a different note than one year ago, when Omicron was sweeping across the nation. Officials still urging people to get vaccinated but Americans are once again traveling in record numbers to spend time with friends and family with few restrictions and cautious optimism that this winter will not be as dark as years past.

President Joe Biden spent the Thanksgiving holiday with his family in Nantucket vowing to push for an assault weapons ban in the final weeks of a lame-duck Congress, after a slew of tragic mass shootings in recent weeks.

That plea is likely to fall on deaf ears on Capitol Hill. Republicans will take over the House in January and plan to investigate Biden's handling of the pandemic, immigration, the withdrawal from Afghanistan and his family’s business dealings. The GOP also reviewing U.S. support for Ukraine as its war with Russia drags on.

This morning, we take stock of these major issues at home and abroad but we begin with Ukraine. I am just back from that war-torn country, my third visit since the conflict began, and while I have tracked what's happening over these many months, to once again see it up close is sobering. Russia using rockets to terrorize the population and target the country's power grid and infrastructure to undermine civilian support for the war while leaving millions without heat and electricity as the winter sets in.

Ukraine’s defenders are pushing forward, trying to advance against Russian forces as they also work to rebuild and rehabilitate communities freed from Russian control.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RADDATZ (voiceover): It has been nine months of fear, destruction and unimaginable loss. Indiscriminate Russian strikes this week pummeling residential areas, a maternity hospital, and power grids, blackouts again paralyzing cities and towns across Ukraine as winter takes a brutal hold. And the fight is far from over.

RADDATZ (on camera): These Ukrainian forces are constantly training, many of these soldiers have already been to the frontlines but many are going back.

RADDATZ (voiceover): They are citizens transformed, volunteers like Oleksandr, who runs a travel business has seen relentless fighting in the East.

RADDATZ (on camera): Thirty-eight-hour battle.

OLEKSANDR NOVIK, UKRAINIAN TERRITORIAL DEFENSE FORCE SOLDIER: Yes, and only two hour we have time for drink, for toilet and for sleeping. Very hard.

RADDATZ: Intense?

NOVIK: Yes.

RADDATZ: And you would go back in a minute?

NOVIK: Yes, of course.

RADDATZ (voiceover): And Petro, who has a small business unbowed even after estimates of as many as100,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed on the battlefield.

RADDATZ (on camera): You will win?

PETRO: We will win.

RADDATZ: You will win. No matter what?

PETRO: No matter what. In Ukraine we say, (speaking in foreign language). It’s -- we say it like --

UNKNOWN FEMALE: Freedom or death.

PETRO: -- freedom or death.

RADDATZ: Freedom or death.

RADDATZ (voiceover): And helping to train many of the Ukrainian soldiers, a team led by British-born, retired U.S. Marine Andrew Milburn, who has seen the fighting perilously close.

Colonel Milburn had multiple combat deployments and fought in the Battle of Fallujah in Iraq.

ANDREW MILBURN, THE MOZART GROUP CEO: And Fallujah was my worst experience of, you know, multiple tours in Iraq and Afghanistan. Here though it's a different sort of fear, you're out in the open but once artillery starts coming down on you, it's the sense of absolute helplessness, absolute helplessness, unless you are near some kind of cover.

RADDATZ: And Milburn's team, the Mozart Group, does not carry weapons or join in the fighting. They train and they help evacuate citizens.

MILBURN: You know, we were pulling kids out of Lysychansk, Novoluhanske, as the Russians were closing in on the town. We don't have armored vehicles. You know, I mean, it’s -- the risk levels are off the charts for anyone who served in the western military. Yet we continue to do it because there's a need and as winter approaches that need is only going to get greater. You have to see these towns to believe in it (ph).

RADDATZ: Buildings destroyed and lives as well. The top U.S. Military official estimated 40,000 Ukrainian civilians have been killed.

RADDATZ (on camera): This is Bucha, about 20 miles outside of Kyiv, behind me was once a mass grave containing the bodies of hundreds of Ukrainian civilians slaughtered by Russian troops. For those who remain in this town, the survivors, the pain is still vivid.

RADDATZ (voiceover): Life has resumed now that the Russians have been pushed out but in the town center, teams of psychologists help children deal with loss and trauma through play.

TETYANA ZAKHAROVA, UKRAINIAN TRAUMA PSYCHOLOGIST: (Speaking in foreign language) --

RADDATZ: The children choose toys according to what worries them, she says.

RADDATZ (on camera): So you've got fighter jets, you've got military vehicles.

ZAKHAROVA: (Speaking in foreign language) --

RADDATZ (voiceover): She says those are the toys most used by the kids.

LIUDMYLA ROMANENKO, UKRAINIAN TRAUMA PSYCHOLOGIST: (Speaking in foreign language) --

RADDATZ: They even speak about the possibility of nuclear war.

One of the caseworkers wanted to show us exactly how this works for a child. There is a moment of silence at first. But then the psychologist's own memories quickly bring her to tears.

HALYNA VEZHYCHANIN, UKRAINIAN TRAUMA CASE MANAGER: (Speaking in foreign language).

RADDATZ (on camera): That was very emotional for you and you do this all the time. What were you thinking?

VEZHYCHANIN: (Speaking in foreign language) --

RADDATZ (voiceover): She says she wanted to place two angels to symbolize the victims but then said she simply couldn't because she was there during the massacre, she helped people look for their missing loved ones and the memories were all too hard.

And it is, of course, not just the people of Bucha who have suffered, no starker example than this one, these five siblings now orphaned after a mortar took the life of their 37-year-old single mother. Eighteen-year-old Slava (ph) who watched his mother die beside him, the only one left to care for his young siblings. He does it while continuing his studies and working full time.

UNKNOWN MALE: (Speaking in foreign language) --

RADDATZ: Just believe in yourself he told me and this is how you can succeed.

RADDATZ (on camera): And your mother taught you that?

UNKNOWN MALE: (Speaking in foreign language).

RADDATZ (voiceover): You see that same determination everywhere you go in Ukraine, and yet Andrew Milburn worries that this war will grind on for months, for years to come.

RADDATZ (on camera): Right now, when you look at what the Ukrainian military strategy is, what is it?

MILBURN: That's a really good question, and I’m not sure that anyone can give a clear picture of that in order to conduct a really game-changing -- I keep using that term -- offensive, you need sufficient resources as far as manpower and weapons systems.

RADDATZ: When you look at where the Ukrainians are and the enormous amount of aid they’ve gotten, do you believe if they don't get more aid that it is conceivable, they can win?

MILBURN: It is conceivable. Look, the West has been extraordinarily helpful in providing high-end platforms but the Russians have adapted. This is not a criticism of U.S. foreign -- well, maybe it is. It’s just the sense that this is going to be a long, bloody war, Ukrainian victory is, in my mind, ultimately most likely, unless the West really embraces the prospect of Ukrainian victory and barring a black swan event, this is going to be a long, bloody slog.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

RADDATZ (on camera): A long bloody conflict.

Joining me now are two congressmen who will have a key role in providing aid to Ukraine in the future, likely leading the national security committees when Republicans take control of the House in January, Congressman Michael McCaul of the Foreign Affairs Committee and Congressman Mike Turner of the Intelligence Committee.

Thank you both for being here.

And I -- and I want to pick up where Colonel Milburn left off. He believes that there should be longer range weapons sent to Ukraine. Would you approve of that?

7. Ukrainian women have started learning a crucial war skill: how to fly a drone

Whole of society.

Ukrainian women have started learning a crucial war skill: how to fly a drone

NPR · by Ashley Westerman · November 26, 2022

Yevhenia Podvoiska and Tatiana Kuznetsova, from left, both policewomen, steer and navigate a drone during class in Kyiv on Oct. 27. Students must learn to work in pairs: a pilot and a navigator. Julian Hayda/NPR

KYIV, Ukraine — Ukrainian women have played a crucial part in their country's resistance to Russia's full-scale invasion. Now, a new school is training women to play a vital new role.

The Female Pilots of Ukraine is the country's first school dedicated to solely teaching women — both civilians as well as those serving in Ukraine's security forces — how to fly drones.

Both the Ukrainian and Russian militaries have been using drones in the war in Ukraine, for reconnaissance and fighting. Ukraine has many women in the military but they rarely work as drone pilots, according to the school's administrators.

The school, which started in Kyiv in August and is privately run, aims to change that.

"We all realize that this is a war of the 21st century," Tatyana Kuznetsova, one of the school's first enrollees, tells NPR during a class in Kyiv's giant Pyrohiv Park.

The seven-year police veteran says she decided to enroll in the free classes to learn new skills "just in case."

It helps to have a good mental compass

During their instruction, Kuznetsova and four other classmates work in pairs — a pilot and a navigator — to practice flying the drones.

They run through a checklist of steps like turning on the controller and checking the batteries. Then the small machines, each only about a foot across and weighing just around 2.5 pounds, have liftoff and zip away gaining altitude.

The drones are soon lost in the big, open gray sky but the pilot and navigator are always keeping a watchful eye on them via the controller screen.

Mykyta Kosov, right, an instructor in the drone school, shows Tatiana Nikolaienko, left, and Yevhenia Podvoiska, center, how to plan a course for their drone to gather reconnaissance and evade detection in Kyivon Oct. 27. Julian Hayda/NPR

The drones they use can fly at a speed of up to 45 miles per hour and at an altitude of around a half mile, says instructor Mykyta Kosov.

"A good drone pilot must be a virtuoso in working with maps," he says, adding they have to have a compass in their head.

They want to go to the front line

Kosov has been piloting drones for a year and a half — eight months of that with Ukraine's armed forces after he was called up to serve following Russia's invasion. He says this is important training for today's conflict.

"Using drones, we get intelligence data and can watch the situation on the front lines more effectively," he says.

Kosov is one of the many instructors who teach classes at the school. Each class is a combination of in-classroom and field training that lasts three to four weeks depending on the level.

School founder Valeriy Borovyk says students can take their new skills into the Ukrainian military, if they want. "I was very surprised that 80% of our students want to go to [the front line]," he says.

Borovyk is the head of Alliance "New Energy of Ukraine," a nonprofit working on energy effectiveness, but has been serving in counterintelligence for Ukraine since Russia launched its invasion. He says he recognized the need for more women drone pilots months ago after struggling to help a friend who was looking to get in contact with a female drone pilot for a feminist organization in the United Kingdom.

Valerii Borovyk, the founder of the Female Pilots of Ukraine drone school, works in his office in Kyiv on Oct. 27. He believes that western feminist organizations should rally to support more women's involvement in the Ukrainian armed forces. Julian Hayda/NPR

Women from all walks of life are signing up for classes, Borovyk says — models, journalists, artists, marketing professionals.

The school, which has already graduated 10 students, has 40 applications pending for the next course cycle, he says.

But the school costs more than $3,000 a month to operate, Borovyk says, and because it is not supported by the government and does not have any big donors, they could use more money for instructors, drones and other equipment. The budget is currently coming out of Borovyk's own pocket and supplemented by donations from students, and their friends and families.

"Our military sector needs many, many pilots. We need it now," he says. "I hope we will win next year, but we must be prepared for many years."

Iryna Solodchuk reaches to catch a drone mid-air as it's steered by one of her classmates in Kyiv on Oct. 27. Julian Hayda/NPR

NPR · by Ashley Westerman · November 26, 2022

8. Yuriy Shukhevych - A Tribute - Kyiv Post - Ukraine's Global Voice

A moving story that provides insight into Ukrainian history.

Yuriy Shukhevych - A Tribute - Kyiv Post - Ukraine's Global Voice

By Askold Lozynskyj. Published Nov. 28 at 12:46 pm

kyivpost.com

I write this memoir about an extraordinary person, not to retell his biography, but rather to pay tribute and express my personal feelings about him from my own interactions, and also to proffer an assessment of what this person meant for Ukrainian society, his people and its history.

The biography of Yuriy Shukhevych, has been written and should be familiar to all Ukrainian patriots. His importance in Ukrainian history cannot be overstated. Yuriy Shukhevych, like his father, was a genuine hero in the purest sense, despite having died from natural causes.

Yuriy’s father, Roman Shukhevych, the commander of the Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA), was a role model for his contemporaries and a hero for future generations. He will be recognized forever as such, having died in battle with the enemy of his nation in March 1950. The heroic struggle of our people today bears the indelible mark of his spirit.

Yuriy was a child of 11 when he was arrested with his mother and sent to Siberia. Then at 13 he was taken from his mother and essentially interned in an orphanage for children of “enemies of the state.” Subsequently, he was arrested at 15 simply for being the son of his father and sentenced to an initial 10 years when he was merely 16. He became a symbol not only as his father’s son, but as a heroic, undaunted individual in his own right. His whole life was a struggle. He has ended life’s journey, but the struggle under his and his father’s name continues.

Growing up in a Ukrainian nationalist family and similarly ideological organizations, in retrospect one of the most impressionable events on me as a 15-year-old was the anti-Soviet demonstration carried out by the First World Congress of Free Ukrainians in New York in 1967. Among its purposes, the political rally sought to bring the world’s attention to the illicit treatment of a child, Yuriy.

Yuriy’s image was on our banners and his steadfastness was in our hearts and minds. His picture appeared all over the world with an inscription “guilty by birth.” My student anti-Soviet activity was inspired by Yuriy Shukhevych. In total, Yuriy Shukhevych served almost 30 years in Soviet prisons, camps and exile, and continued to inspire us.

With the proclamation of Ukraine’s independence, my trips to Ukraine became frequent. Lviv was always one of the most important destinations for me and my family, since there I could meet Yuriy. He was by then physically disabled and lived as a guardian with two disabled women for whom he cared despite his visual infirmity. I discerned immediately that while he could not see with his eyes, his senses were more acute than that of many with full vision.

Yuriy’s political activity after the proclamation of independence deserves special mention. Yuriy was aware of his role and destiny. He was the quintessential bridge between generations and struggles. He recognized the importance of his own person not as a narcissist, but as a freedom fighter, as the son of his legendary father and that most important nexus.

In fact, he was very modest. He spoke and listened to almost anyone. I had the opportunity and great honor to meet with him many times and to speak in detail on various topics, all related to current affairs and relevant to Ukraine and our people.

Yuriy worked almost until his last breath. Only a few months ago, he had been making arrangements for the funeral of his father’s last military colleague, Daria Husak or Husiak. He was always busy with his work, which invariably had a community or political character. He considered it his duty to his father and to his people.

It is worth mentioning the Shukhevych family, one of the noblest families not only of the city of Lviv, but of all of Ukraine. Aside from Yuriy’s father, Yuriy’s mother, Natalya, at her own peril, was one of the righteous gentiles protecting Jewish lives. When the Soviets returned to Ukraine in 1944 she became a prisoner in the Soviet Gulag. Her brother Yuriy Myroslav Berezynsky had been executed by the Poles in the early 1930s, Roman’s brother Yuriy was murdered by the Bolsheviks as they retreated before the Nazi onslaught of 1941. The Soviets, not unlike the Russians today, murdered their civilian prisoners. Roman’s sister Natalya was a prisoner of Soviet camps as well. Yuriy’s entire close family served as an example to their contemporaries. Much can be said about each of them.

With profound sadness, I express my deepest condolences to Yuriy’s wife Oleksandra, his friends and colleagues. They say that such people are born once every few generations, but the Shukhevych family appears to have outdone itself.

Glory to Ukraine! Glory to its heroes! And eternal memory to Yuriy Shukhevych! Ukrainians will remember him! We will plant a Ukrainian bush, a Kalyna (viburnum) as a symbol of Ukraine on his grave site, so that he can inhale the fragrance of its bloom and taste its fruit. He had raised the failing and bent Red Kalyna often throughout his life. Those who will follow in his footsteps and adhere to his words and example should do likewise.

kyivpost.com

9. Special Operations News Update - Nov 28, 2022 | SOF News

Special Operations News Update - Nov 28, 2022 | SOF News

sof.news · by SOF News · November 28, 2022

Curated news, analysis, and commentary about special operations, national security, and conflicts around the world.

Photo: MH-53J of the 20th Special Operations Squadron, Hurlburt Field, Florida. Photo by Senior Airman Andy M. Kin.

Do you receive our daily newsletter? If not, you can sign up here and enjoy it five (almost) days a week with your morning coffee (or afternoon tea depending on where in the world you are).

SOF News

SOF’s Future Role. Guy McCardle provides an informative look at the mission and doctrinal role of today’s special operations forces. He presents a brief description of the various official documents that outline the mission and doctrine; and provides links to the publications as well. “The Changing Role of Special Operations Forces”, SOFREP, November 24, 2022.

Sky Wardens with a Tail Wheel. AFSOC will be training up 200 pilots on a new aircraft, part of the Armed Overwatch program, that utilizes a tailwheel. It had been many years since one has been in the inventory. The (Forbes, Nov 25, 2022).

Armed Overwatch -Training the Pilots. As many as 75 AT-802U Sky Warden’s will be purchased in the next several years to provide CAS, precision strike, and armed ISR for COIN and CT missions. “Here’s the Air Force’s plan to train armed overwatch pilots”, Air Force Times, November 21, 2022.

AFSOC Conference. Leaders from several Air Force commands were hosted by the Air Force Special Operations Command for a meeting to better understand the Air Force’s concept of Mission Command and how it applies to AFSOC. “AFSOC Hosts Mission Command Summit”, AFSOC, November 17, 2022.

Defense Strategies Institute presents SOF & Worldwide Operations, December 7-8, 2022, Tampa, Florida. The 11th Annual SOF & Worldwide Symposium will convene senior level leaders and decision makers from across the Special Operations Community, regional combatant commands, Department of State, intelligence community, academia, and industry.

CA in Tanzania. SOCAFRICA recently conducted a Civil Affairs Joint Combined Exchange Training exercise with the Tanzania Marine Special Forces in November 2022. “U.S. Africa Command Special Operations train alongside Tanzanian partners”, United States Africa Command, November 21, 2022. The month-long training gave both the U.S. and Tanzania service members the opportunity to develop and maintain critical military-to-military connections and improve joint and allied readiness and interoperability.

IWU, SOAA, and College Degrees. Indiana Wesleyan University has partnered with the Special Operations Association of America (SOAA) to provide educational and career advancement opportunities for members of the Special Operations community. IWU’s programs are specifically designed to count SOF experience and training toward a degree. (IWU, Nov 15, 2022)

SOCMID FTX. Air Force Pararescuemen executed the Fall 2022 Special Operations Center for Medical Integration and Development field training exercise in Alabama in November 2022. The training provides various scenarios to enhance medical readiness in tactical operations. “Fall 2022 SOCMID FTX”, 24th SOW, November 21, 2022.

Viasat Wins Contract. USSOCOM has awarded Viasat a $325 million contract to provide comms and networking services over the next five years. (Space News, Nov 22, 2022)

2nd POG CoC. The 2nd Psychological Operations Group conducted a change of command ceremony in early November 2022. “2nd Psychological Operations Group welcomes new commander”, DVIDS, November 5, 2022.

International SOF

JTAC Graduates From Brazil Jungle School. A New York Air National Guardsman recently completed a six-week course in Brazil. He went through the course with two members of the 7th Special Forces Group. “NY Air Guardsman graduates from Brazil’s jungle training school”, DVIDS, November 22, 2022.

Exercise Balkan Shield 2022. Special Operations Forces from across the Balkans took part in an exercise for SOF units during the first two weeks of November. This combined military exercise was hosted by Greece. Participant nations included Albania, Bulgaria, Montenegro, Romania, and the Republic of North Macedonia. “Special Operations Forces Exercise Balkan Shield 22 Concludes in Greece”, NSHQ Public Affairs Office, November 15, 2022.

Philippines FSRR. On the 72nd founding anniversary, the First Scout Ranger Regiment was recognized for its contributions to the security of the nation. (Philippine News Agency, Nov 28, 2022).

Georgia SOF Base. A new, NATO-standard base for the country’s special operations forces has been established. (Agenda.ge, Nov 22, 2022).

Operation Greif and ‘Scarface’. WWII’s most effective Nazi commando was the leader of an operation to capture one or more bridges crossing the River Meuse during the Battle of the Bulge. (History of Yesterday, Nov 28, 2022).

SOF History

Camp Hiep Hoa Overrun. On November 24, 1963, a CIDG camp was overrun in South Vietnam. About 500 Viet Cong took the Special Forces camp resulting in 4 Americans missing. One of the them, Isaac Camacho, escaped from a Viet Cong POW camp.

Alamo Scouts. On November 28, 1943 the U.S. 6th Army Alamo Scouts were activated in the Pacific Theater of Operations during World War II. This reconnaissance unit took part in the liberation of American prisons of war in the Philippines.

First Combat HALO Jump. On the night of November 28, 1970, Green Berets assigned to MACV SOG RT Florida stepped out of a C-130 Blackbird over the skies of Laos at 17,000. (SOFREP, 2014)

MH-53 Pave Low. A helicopter that AFSOC used to provide support to Special Forces, SEALs, Recon Marines, PJs, and others served for many years until 2008. The Pave Low could operate at night and during inclement weather with its advanced sensor, radar, and navigation systems. These features made it an ideal transport for clandestine, low-level missions for SOF units. “MH-53 Pave Low: A Military Helicopter Designed to Save Lives”, 1945, November 26, 2022.

Video – Codename Snake Eyes. A documentary featuring the British Navy, SBS, and 42 Commando was filmed in 1960. An interesting look at a UK commando exercise. YouTube, 27 minutes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5uvHtVeNTm8&t=21s

National Security

A Ukrainian Winter and More Missiles. People in cities across Ukraine are suffering from lack of heat, water, and electricity. Russian missiles have taken their toll on the civilian infrastructure causing extreme hardship for many Ukrainians. It Russia’s intent is to demoralize the Ukrainian people . . . then they have failed. “Hardship and hope: Winter, missiles storms show Kyiv’s mettle”, AP News, November 27, 2022.

Turkey Attacks. On November 13, 2022 a terrorist attack took place in Istanbul. Since then, Turkey has been attacking Kurdish groups in Syria and Iraq. It is also threatening to launch a ground operation in Syria – most likely to widen the buffer zone along the Syrian border.

CIA Takes Care of Their Afghan Allies. More and more news reports are coming out on how the Central Intelligence Agency went above and beyond to evacuate their Afghan proxy forces from Afghanistan in August 2021. The botched U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 and the chaotic non-combatant evacuation operation (NEO) in August 2021 saw failures by most of the organizations of the U.S. government (State, DoD, IC, etc.). However, it is becoming more apparent that the CIA correctly anticipated the collapse of the Afghan military and the fall of the Afghan government. The intel agency facilitated the movement of their National Directorate of Security (NDS) Zero units (01, 02, 03, and 04) through Taliban-held territory to the Kabul international airport. Those forces then assisted in the security of the airport perimeter and some of the entry gates, keeping the swarming masses of Afghans attempting to board U.S. military evacuation planes at bay. The Zero unit personnel and their families were airlifted out on the last flights leaving Kabul towards the end of the NEO. Read more in “CIA, Spec Ops roles in Kabul’s collapse belie official versions”, SpyTalk, November 21, 2022.

China in the Gray Zone. Dr. James Holmes argues that the United States needs to develop strategic and operational habits fit for the murky landscape found in the gray zone. “How Do We Beat China in the Gray Zone?”, 1945, November 26, 2022.

Video – Near Peer: Russia. This video is a timely discussion of Russia and its military. A discussion of Russian history, current affairs, and military doctrine. Army University Press, DVIDS, November 25, 2022, one hour. https://www.dvidshub.net/video/865497/near-peer-russia

Information Operations

US Military and Online Propaganda. A major covert pro-US propaganda operation was taken down by Meta – a big-tech company. The operation was focused on a number of countries including Afghanistan, Algeria, Iran, Iraq, Russia, Somalia, and others. The campaigns ran across multiple platforms (Twitter, YouTube, etc.) using fake personas and artificially generated images. “Meta claims US military link to online propaganda campaign”, BBC News, November 24, 2022.

Tulsi Gabbard Lectures PSYOP Students at Bragg. A out-spoken former Democratic congresswoman and conservative-media pundit gave a guest lecture to students at the Army’s psychological warfare school on several topics – including disinformation. She has been criticized by members of both major political parties for peddling pro-Russian talking points. “After Pushing Conspiracies, Tulsi Gabbard Lectures Special Ops Students on Avoiding Disinformation”, Military.com, November 22, 2022.

Upcoming Events

December 7-8, 2022

SOF & Worldwide Operations

Defense Strategies Institute (DSI)

Books, Pubs, and Podcasts

Book – Delete the Adjective. The first female Ranger School graduate has a book out about her career and her experience with her attendance at the U.S. Army Ranger school. The book’s title refers to the fact that she focuses on her ability to hold her own weight, do land navigation, and meet the high standards of Ranger School; not that she was the first female graduate. “Lisa Jaster’s Trailblazing Journey Through War and Ranger School”, by Mac Caltrider, Coffee or Die Magazine, November 23, 2022.

Pub – Counterterrorism Yearbook 2022. A new publication published in November 2022 provides information about trends in terrorism, precrime policing and extremism, radicalization of teenagers, strategic competition and CT, bioterrorism, and resilience. This CT yearbook was published by the Counter-Terrorism Policy Centre of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI). The report is 139-page PDF. https://www.aspi.org.au/report/counterterrorism-yearbook-2022

Podcast – Urban Warfare Project. John Spencer, Chair of Urban Warfare at the Modern War Institute at West Point, discusses the future of warfare and the impact an increasingly urban environment has on military training. Pinelander Podcast, November 25, 2022, one hour.

https://pinelander.podbean.com/e/episode-051-urban-warfare-project-november-25-2022/

sof.news · by SOF News · November 28, 2022

10. Is China heading toward another Tiananmen Square moment?

Will we get a redo for 1989? If there is another Tiananmen, what will we do? What will the international community do? What can we do?

Is China heading toward another Tiananmen Square moment?

How a deadly fire in Xinjiang ignited a nationwide protest against zero-covid in China.

Lili Pike, China Reporter, and Tom Nagorski, Global EditorNovember 29, 2022

grid.news · by Lili Pike, China Reporter, and Tom Nagorski, Global Editor

In October, a man unfurled banners from a Beijing bridge calling for people to rise up against China’s restrictive covid policies and the Communist Party itself. He was alone that day and quickly arrested; the nationwide protests he hoped for did not materialize. But now they have. And they started because of a fire in an apartment building.

When word spread of the fire, the 10 fatalities and reports that rescue efforts may have been slowed by a covid lockdown, the apartment building tragedy turned into a national rallying cry.

It happened this past Thursday in Urumqi, in western China’s Xinjiang region. By the weekend, protests had spread from Urumqi to Shanghai, Nanjing and many other large cities — including Wuhan, where the world’s first major outbreak of covid-19 struck three years ago. The anger was expressed on Chinese social media platforms as well. At first, the protests appeared to take direct aim at the government’s “zero-covid” approach, under which even small outbreaks are met with severe measures — often including the confining of millions of people to their homes. “Lift the lockdown” was among the rallying cries. But in some instances, demonstrators went further — calling for broader freedoms and even an end to Communist Party rule.

In a country where public opposition to the central government and its policies is rare and swiftly punished, the weekend’s marches and gatherings amounted to the most powerful challenge to the party in years.

“It’s extremely significant,” said Teresa Wright, a political scientist at California State University, Long Beach, who studies protests in China. Other demonstrations against China’s zero-covid policy have simmered throughout the year, but the Urumqi fire has sparked a reaction that makes the earlier unrest seem minor by comparison. That in turn has prompted Wright and other scholars to draw comparisons between the demonstrations and those that filled Beijing’s Tiananmen Square more than three decades ago.

Is China heading toward another Tiananmen moment? It’s a question that would have seemed almost absurd to ask only one week ago.

From mourning to anger

The nationwide outburst was born in an unlikely place. Urumqi is the regional capital of Xinjiang, whose Uyghur population has faced widespread repression in recent years. The Associated Press reported that at least five of the 10 people who died in the fire were Uyghurs. The suffering of the Uyghur people doesn’t usually garner widespread attention among China’s majority Han population, but the deadly fire struck a chord for people across the country. Call it lockdown sympathy.

Urumqi had been under lockdown for more than 100 days, and social media commentators blamed locked building exits for the deaths in the apartment building. In many cases across China, the lockdowns have been literal; people have been locked in their buildings by local government workers, sometimes using bulky chains. Grid and other outlets haven’t been able to confirm that locked exits prevented the Urumqi residents from escaping, and the local government denied that the doors were locked, but in terms of the outrage, the facts may not have mattered; the fire stirred broader anger toward lockdowns in Urumqi and other cities across China. On Weibo, China’s Twitter-like platform, breaking news posts about the fire received more than 1.5 billion views, even though the story was hidden from the site’s trending topics list.

By Friday night, a crowd of hundreds had gathered outside a government building in Urumqi calling out “jie feng,” or “lift the lockdown,” according to videos from the scene. It would have been unusual anywhere in China; it was especially rare in a region that is so tightly controlled and policed.

People mourn for the victims of the fire at a road sign on Wulumuqi Road (also pronounced Urumqi) in Shanghai on Saturday.. (Future Publishing/Future Publishing via Getty Imag)

By the following day, the protests had spread across China. On the other side of the country in Shanghai, a street sign for Urumqi Road, named for the Xinjiang capital, became a gathering point for grief and anger. People honored the victims of the fire by placing candles and flowers near the sign. But what started as a vigil morphed quickly into a full-scale protest, drawing hundreds of people. The city’s residents are intimately familiar with the nightmares of zero-covid measures, having endured their own two-month-long lockdown last spring. Those two months threw the city into chaos — food delivery networks broke down, healthcare services were compromised, and smaller-scale protests followed, on and offline.

But this weekend’s scenes along Urumqi Road were different. Some messages were subtle: People held up white sheets of paper, a symbol used during the 2019 Hong Kong protests to show solidarity while also protesting censorship itself. Some wore masks with “404″ written on them — the all-too-familiar error message people get when a webpage has been blocked. Other demonstrators were more direct: People chanted “We want freedom,” and one protester called for President Xi Jinping to step down — a truly rare challenge in China and one that was echoed by some in the crowd, according to the New York Times.

By Sunday, the protests had spread to Beijing. Hundreds of people gathered by the Liangma River — a quarter of the city that is home to many embassies. The same white sheets of paper were held high, and chants for freedom rang through the night. Throughout China, other major cities joined the call — including Chengdu, Tianjin, Hangzhou and others.

The messages were echoed on university campuses. In Xi’an, Nanjing and at Beijing’s famed universities — Tsinghua and Peking — crowds of students gathered for vigils-turned-protests. College campuses have long been breeding grounds for dissent in China, and this weekend some students’ calls extended far beyond covid lockdowns to demands for greater democracy and freedom of expression.

There have been other covid-related tragedies in China — including a bus crash that killed 27 people who were being shipped to a quarantine facility in September. What was it about the Urumqi fire that sparked such a sudden and widespread movement?

Wright said the timing might have something to do with it. Many people in China had hoped that the party congress, held in October, would lead to a pivot away from the zero-covid restrictions. “Expectations were increased and then crushed,” she said. “Then you’ve got this fire in Urumqi being the tipping point.”

A Tiananmen moment?

Protests in today’s China aren’t unusual in themselves, as Grid recently reported; people take to the streets over local issues such as factory conditions and property issues frequently. They vent their anger on social media platforms, with varying degrees of success in evading government censors.

But the current protests are in a league of their own. Or perhaps, Wright argued, in a league with the handful of other major social movements that have challenged the party in recent decades — none more so than the 1989 protests at Tiananmen.

Like Tiananmen, the current protests have an ingredient that poses a particular challenge to the party: They have brought together a broad coalition of people across Chinese society.

“I would say one commonality between ’89 and the present is the fundamental frustration with perceived governmental corruption and authorities not being responsive to or attentive to the needs of the people,” Wright said. “So that’s something that can bring together people of different socioeconomic status and backgrounds, even if their specific concerns are somewhat different.”

Today, the protesters’ common cause involves the easing or ending of the restrictive covid policies — even if they have different messages under that umbrella. Many students are calling for expansive rights — freedom and democracy — while migrant workers are demanding the basic right to work to feed their families. As Grid has previously reported, the lockdowns have hit China’s poorest citizens the hardest; migrants who live paycheck to paycheck have no safety net when they cannot go out to find work. In recent weeks, those workers have stood up against the lockdowns — in Zhengzhou at the giant Foxconn factory where iPhones are produced, and in Guangzhou where migrant workers pushed over lockdown barriers to protest a recent shutdown.

“There is one word that describes the significance of these protests: heterogeneity,” said Christian Goebel, an associate professor of China studies at University of Vienna who studies dissent, describing the mosaic of Chinese people who’ve been drawn to the streets.

But in some ways, the current protests aren’t nearly as powerful as the Tiananmen movement. At least not yet. The protests in 1989 built over many weeks, hundreds of thousands of people gathering at a single, central venue, until their bloody end. On June 4, the government ordered troops to fire on the protesters, killing hundreds — perhaps thousands.

It’s too early to know whether the current protesters will continue to demonstrate in the days and weeks ahead, and whether demonstrations will be tolerated. So far, the protests have largely been allowed to continue; while videos have shown police picking off individuals for arrest, there has not yet been a mass crackdown. One of the few official responses to date: On Monday, an official refuted the notion of a connection between the Urumqi fire and virus restrictions. “On social media there are forces with ulterior motives that relate this fire with the local response to Covid-19,” said Zhao Lijian, a foreign ministry spokesman.

It’s also too early to say whether the main target of the current protests will move beyond ending zero-covid. The Tiananmen protests developed into a movement for democracy — the most direct and powerful challenge the party has ever experienced. In today’s protests, while there have been those occasional calls for Xi and the party to step down, many have focused their slogans and chants on simply ending the lockdowns.

Whither “zero-covid”?

Wherever the latest protest movement leads in the coming days and weeks, Xi and the leadership face a stark choice: They can stay the course, pulling out all the stops to beat back the virus, and avoid the awkward about-face of changing their message, or they can change course, easing the lockdowns and other measures, mollifying the protesters and recharging the national economy.

There are small signs at the local-government level that the protests are having an impact. In Urumqi, officials announced that covid cases had been cleared and that people could go out again in low-risk areas, and on Monday, the Beijing government also said barriers would no longer be used to block neighborhoods during lockdowns.

But the national leadership continues to stand by the overarching zero-covid policy. A few weeks ago, the central government announced a plan to ease some restrictions, including quarantine lengths, but even that slight relaxation sent caseloads surging to record levels. In response, the government fell back on familiar tools. Meanwhile, China has refused to approve foreign mRNA vaccines, favoring weaker domestic vaccines. That, taken together with the limited number of domestic infections to date, means the population is much more vulnerable to covid compared with battle-worn countries like the U.S.

All of which makes it hard to see how the government will answer the “end the lockdowns” movement and how that movement might end. It’s less than a week since the fire that started it all; at a minimum, these few days have shown that the government’s grip isn’t quite as tight as many believed.

Thanks to Lillian Barkley for copy editing this article.

grid.news · by Lili Pike, China Reporter, and Tom Nagorski, Global Editor

11. Biden admin scrambles to track $20B in Ukraine aid as House Republicans warn of audits

We need accountability because it is the right thing to do.. But it must not become a political issue.

Biden admin scrambles to track $20B in Ukraine aid as House Republicans warn of audits

foxnews.com · by Anders Hagstrom | Fox News

Video

Putin weaponizing winter is ‘increasing’ Ukraine’s ‘resolve’: Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg

Fox News contributor Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg discusses developments in the war in Ukraine following Russia missile attacks compromising much of Ukraine’s power supply.

President Biden's administration is scrambling to track the nearly $20 billion in military aid it has sent to Ukraine as Republicans warn of impending audits when they take control of the House in January.

Likely future House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has said his party will not be giving Ukraine a "blank check" to fend off Russia's invasion. A potential audit would determine how much, if any, of the U.S. aid is ending up in the wrong hands. The Biden administration's previous tracking efforts have inspected only a fraction of the aid provided to the country.

While some staunch Ukraine allies fear Republicans will cut off aid to the country, there remains widespread support for ramping up oversight efforts in Congress.

Firebrand Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., has vowed to "hold our government accountable" for Ukraine spending, and some of her colleagues across the aisle are echoing the message.

PROGRESSIVE LAWMAKERS URGE BIDEN TO 'ENGAGE IN DIRECT TALKS WITH RUSSIA' TO END INVASION OF UKRAINE

President Joe Biden speaks in the State Dining Room of the White House, Friday, April 1, 2022, in Washington. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky, File) (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky, File)

"The taxpayers deserve to know that investment is going where it's intended to go," Rep. Jason Crow, D-Colo., told the Washington Post. "In any war, there can be missteps and misallocation of supplies."

EXPLAINER: DIRTY BOMBS ARE DEVICES USED TO CREATE FEAR AND PANIC, ACTUALLY CAUSE FEW DEATHS

The lawmakers agree that current monitoring efforts appear woefully inadequate, with the Biden administration inspecting just 10% of the 22,000 weapons the U.S. has provided to Ukraine between February and November 1, according to the Post.

U.S. allies in Europe have expressed hope that Republican skepticism of Ukraine aid will not lead to a widespread cutting of funding, however.

"You’d be playing into Putin’s hands," U.K. Parliament member Tobias Ellwood said in October. "If America pulls back, Putin could snatch victory from the jaws of defeat."

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (Getty Images)

McCarthy has based his criticism of the aid packages on America's economic situation as the economy threatens to fall into a recession.

"I think people are gonna be sitting in a recession and they’re not going to write a blank check to Ukraine," McCarthy said last month. "They just won’t do it. … It’s not a free blank check."

A Ukrainian soldier stands one top of a destroyed Russian tank on the outskirts of Kyiv, Ukraine, Thursday, March 31, 2022. (AP Photo/Rodrigo Abd) (AP Photo/Rodrigo Abd))

Nevertheless, America's funding for Ukraine has been largely bipartisan under Biden, and many Republicans say there is no reason that funding cannot continue in some form.

CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP

"No one in Republican leadership has called for an end to aid for Ukraine," Rep. Mike Turner, R-Ohio, said Monday. "People on the Republican side are saying, ‘Why do we have to pass a $40 billion package to send $8 billion to Ukraine?’"

Anders Hagstrom is a reporter with Fox News Digital covering national politics and major breaking news events. Send tips to Anders.Hagstrom@Fox.com, or on Twitter: @Hagstrom_Anders.

foxnews.com · by Anders Hagstrom | Fox News

12. Iran calls for US to be kicked out of 2022 World Cup after it changes Iran flag on social media to show support for protesters

Influence operations? A whole of society approach?

I am surprised no one has yet blamed the US government or more specifically the US military for trying to conduct an influence operation. Okay I am being sarcastic.

But this would make a good case study and something that should be examined.

What if this was someone's "good idea" to somehow "influence" someone about something? Let's consider this. First, what was the desired effect they were seeking? How would tis support US national objectives or national interests? What target audience(s) was this action designed for? Iranians? Which iranians? The regime and military leadership? The people? How would we expect each target audience to react to this? What would we expect the regime to do in response to this? What would we expect the people to do? DO we think they would assess this as showing solidarity with the Iranians and thus with the people? or was the interned target audience the international community or the US public? Was it intended to elevate the iranian protest issue internationally and among the American public? Was it intended to influence the people to support a US response to the iranian protests? Would the Iranian regime's response have an effect on the international community - would its reaction undermine regime legitimacy?

I think an analysis of this will reveal that this will not have much effect. It probably made some people feel good - e.g., we are somehow sticking it to the Iranian regime. Who decided to do this? Did the US soccer authorities think this through and deliberately decide to do it? Or was the result of some social media person who took it upon himself to make this kind of "statement" through graphics?

But probably to people outside of Iran, the regime's response might be interpreted in such a way as to undermine its legitimacy and credibility and its own actions are in fact highlighting its own human rights abuses and exposing the regime. So perhaps there are some positive effects from this.

The bottom line is we must think through all attempts at influence operations, deliberate ones and inadvertent ones. In a free society these things will happen. People will act on their own accord. The question for our influence professionals (and policy makers) is when an action is taken, perhaps as in this case unexpectedly or randomly, can and should we exploit it in some way to support US national interests? Should we try to denounce it or distance ourselves from it? (no, in my opinion). My recommended response would be to maintain the high ground - we are a free country and we do not control the speech and actions of our citizens because they have every right to express themselves in any way the desire to make their political points. Iran's failure to respect that kind of freedom is the fundamental reason why the Iranian people are suffering under authoritarian rule.

Apologies for rambling on (and thinking while writing). It is late here in Poland and I spent all day thinking about and discussing influence operations with many people from many NATO countries.

Iran calls for US to be kicked out of 2022 World Cup after it changes Iran flag on social media to show support for protesters | CNN

CNN · by Ben Morse,Wayne Sterling · November 27, 2022

A giant flag of IR Iran on the pitch prior to the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 Group B match between Wales and Iran at Ahmad Bin Ali Stadium on November 25, 2022 in Doha, Qatar.

Catherine Ivill/Getty Images

CNN —

Iran state media has called for the US to be kicked out of the 2022 World Cup after the United States Soccer Federation changed Iran’s flag on its social media platforms to show support for protesters in Iran.

The federation had temporarily displayed Iran’s national flag on its official Twitter, Instagram and Facebook accounts without the emblem of the Islamic Republic. A now-deleted graphic of the Group B standings posted on Saturday displayed the Iranian flag only bearing its green, white and red colors.

US Soccer told CNN on Sunday that it wanted to change the official flag for 24 hours to show “support for the women in Iran fighting for basic human rights” but always planned to go back to the original flag.

The change “was a one-time graphic,” US Soccer told CNN. “We have the main flag on our website and other places.” The emblem is currently back on the flag on US Soccer’s social media channels.

A spokesperson for the State Department told CNN it did not coordinate with US Soccer in the sporting body’s decision to change Iran’s flag on its social media accounts to show support for protesters in Iran.

“We look forward to a peaceful and competitive match on the field. The United States continues to find ways to support the Iranian people in the face of state-sponsored violence against women and a brutal crackdown against peaceful protestors,” the State Department told CNN.

A US soccer federation screenshot displaying Iran's national flag on social media without the emblem of the Islamic Republic.

Instagram/AP

Iran state media reported Sunday that the United States should be immediately kicked out of the tournament and suspended for 10 games for a “distorted image” of the country’s flag.

“By posting a distorted image of the flag of the Islamic Republic of #Iran on its official account, the #US football team breached the @FIFAcom charter, for which a 10-game suspension is the appropriate penalty,” Iran state-aligned Tasnim news agency wrote on Twitter on Sunday. “Team #USA should be kicked out of the #WorldCup2022.”

German fan Bengt Kunkel, 23, is a student sports journalist back in Germany.

Ben Church/CNN

Exclusive: World Cup soccer fans stopped by security officials for wearing rainbow-colored items

FIFA did not immediately respond to CNN’s request for comment.

Iran and the US play each other on Tuesday in a crucial Group B match. It is a must-win tie for the US Men’s National Team (USMNT) if it is to progress to the knockout stages.

On Monday, USMNT head coach Gregg Berhalter said the team “had no idea what US Soccer put out” but did apologize for the display.

“The staff, the players, we had no idea … Our focus is on this match and I don’t want to sound aloof or not caring by saying that,” said Berhalter in a regularly scheduled news conference on Monday.

“Of course are thoughts are with the Iranian people, the whole country, the whole team, everyone. But our focus is on this match.

“Sometimes things are out of our control,” added Berhalter. “We believe that it’s going to be a match that the result will depend on who puts more effort in and who executes better on the field.

“We’re not focused on those outside things and all we can do is apologize on behalf of the players and the staff, but it’s not something that we were a part of.”

Riot police are at work to clear the street during clashes with supporters on the sideline of the live broadcast of the Qatar 2022 World Cup Group F football match between Belgium and Morocco, in Brussels, on November 27, 2022. - - Belgium OUT (Photo by NICOLAS MAETERLINCK / BELGA / AFP) / Belgium OUT (Photo by NICOLAS MAETERLINCK/BELGA/AFP via Getty Images)

Nicolas Maeterlinck/BELGA/AFP/Getty Images

Morocco's World Cup win against Belgium triggers riots in Brussels

Berhalter insisted any noise surrounding Tuesday’s match was not impacting the preparation of the US players.

“What I see from this group is this tremendous amount of focus,” said Berhalter. “There is no real distractions. I know there is a lot going on here but the group is focused on how to get a win.”

Iran is appearing at this World Cup under the shadow of domestic turmoil. The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Chief, Volker Turk, has said that the country is in a “full-fledged human rights crisis” as authorities clamp down on anti-regime dissidents.

Protests, referred to by experts as the most significant since the establishment of clerical rule following the 1979 Iranian Revolution, and violence have rocked Iran in recent months and threatened the very nature of the country’s regime, which has been in power for more than 40 years.

It was sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year-old woman who died after being detained by Iran’s morality police, allegedly for not abiding by the country’s conservative dress code. Iranian security forces have unleashed a violent response.

Klinsmann comments branded ‘outrageous’

The latest controversy comes after a day of issues ahead of the two teams’ Group B clash in Doha at the Al Thumama Stadium.

US Soccer’s decision came on the same day the former USMNT head coach Jurgen Klinsmann said he will try to speak with Iran’s manager, Carlos Queiroz, to “calm things down” after Klinsmann’s comments about Iran’s culture were branded “outrageous remarks.”

Following Iran’s 2-0 victory over Wales on Friday, Klinsmann discussed Iran’s attitude toward the game of soccer, led by Queiroz, during a panel discussion on the BBC.

“That’s their culture and that’s their way of doing it and that’s why Carlos Queiroz, he fits really well in the Iranian national team,” Klinsmann said.

“He struggled in South America. He failed with Colombia to qualify then he failed with Egypt to qualify as well and then he went back right before the World Cup now and guided Iran where he worked already for a long, long time.

“This is not by coincidence. This is all purposely. This is just part of their culture. That’s how they play it and they work the referee.

“You saw the bench always jumping off, always working the fourth, the linesmen and the fourth referee on the sideline, constantly in their ears. They’re constantly in your face on the field.”

Klinsmann has been a manager and pundit since retiring from football.

Alexander Hassenstein/Getty Images Europe/Getty Images for DFB

The 1990 World Cup winner continued: “This is their culture and they kind of make you lose your focus and make you lose your concentration and what’s really important to you.”

In a tweet on Monday, Klinsmann clarified that his comments were “purely football related.”

“Unfortunately, this was taken out of a footballing context,” he added. “I have many Iranian friends and was always full of compliments for their people, culture, and history. I wish them only the best for the tournament.”

On Saturday, Queiroz responded to Klinsmann’s comments on the BBC in a series of tweets.

“Even not knowing me personally, you question my character with a typical prejudiced judgment of superiority,” Queiroz wrote. “No matter how much I can respect what you did inside the pitch, those remarks about Iran Culture, Iran National Team and my Players are a disgrace to Football. Nobody can hurt our integrity if it is not at our level, of course.”

Queiroz added: “As American/German, we understand your no support. No problem. And despite your outrageous remarks on BBC trying to undermine our efforts, sacrifices and skills, we promise you that we will not produce any judgments regarding your culture, roots and background and that you will always be welcome to our Family.”

The Iran Football Federation, in a statement, demanded Klinsmann apologize and resign from his Qatar 2022 Technical Study Group position with FIFA. Iran said it has asked FIFA “for immediate clarification on this matter.”

CNN has reached out to FIFA for comment but did not get a response at time of publication.

On Sunday, Klinsmann said on BBC Breakfast: “There was stuff really taken out of context. I will try to give him a call and calm things down. I have never criticized Carlos or the Iranian bench. Some even thought I was criticizing the referee because he didn’t do anything about the way they were behaving on the bench.

“All I described was their emotional way of doing things, which is actually admirable in a certain way. The whole bench lives the game. They’re jumping up and down and Carlos is a very emotional coach. He’s constantly on the sidelines trying to give his players all his energy and direction.”

The federation invited Klinsmann to visit Team Melli Camp in Doha and “for a lecture on the millennial Persian culture and the values of football and sport.”

CNN · by Ben Morse,Wayne Sterling · November 27, 2022

13. China’s Covid protests could go anywhere from here

China’s Covid protests could go anywhere from here

‘Zero-Covid’ demonstrations are sweeping China and anything could happen next as Beijing grapples with how to reimpose nationwide order

asiatimes.com · by David S G Goodman · November 28, 2022

Public protests in China related to the government’s Covid-19 restrictions have hit the news worldwide over the weekend, following a fatal apartment fire in Urumqi, Xinjiang last week which killed ten people.

Many internet users claimed some residents could not escape because the apartment building was partially locked down, though authorities denied this.

There have been reports some demonstrators have called for President Xi Jinping, the newly re-elected General Secretary of the Communist Party of China, to stand down. Others have criticized the rule of the party itself.

China’s Covid measures are among the strictest in the world, as it continues to pursue lockdowns to suppress the virus – what it calls a “dynamic zero Covid” policy.

While these protests are certainly serious challenges to authority, they should be kept in perspective. In particular, there’s no real parallel to those in Tiananmen Square in 1989.

These are street protests where the demonstrators disperse after marching and protesting, and the main focus of the protests are the Covid restrictions rather than wider political principles.

The main issue here is frustration not just with Covid restrictions but the inconsistent ways these measures are being implemented. At least in the short term, the state’s reactions are likely to be muted. There’s undoubtedly pressure for change, though how this will be achieved is hard to predict.

China eased ‘zero-Covid’ rules in what was seen as a first step toward reopening, but restrictions were tightened again. Photo: Screengrab / BBC

A more national response

Protests in China have actually become quite common in the last couple of decades, though they almost always center around a specific issue and are highly localized.

Workers in a factory may protest over lack of payment or deteriorating conditions. Villagers forced to resettle so that their land can be redeveloped attempt resistance, sometimes even to the extent of refusing to be moved away. Residents in new housing estates become mobilized to complain about the lack of promised roads, retail outlets and services.

These kinds of protests are usually resolved reasonably and quickly not least by state officials intervening to ensure solutions in the name of maintaining stability.

Less capable of such instant solutions are protests about more general principles, such as freedom of expression, legal representation, or governmental responsibilities. In such cases, government responses have tended to suppress the concerns.

But such protests have almost always been localized and not led to any sense of a regional or national movement. This has even been true of industrial disputes where workers have protested in one or more factories under a single brand or owner.

There’s no evidence at this stage that this is an organized national movement. But it seems protesters in each city have been emboldened by the actions of demonstrators in others.

Reading China’s social media it’s clear, for example, that demonstrators in Beijing and Shanghai report on each others’ protests, as well as commenting on the initial protest causes in Urumqi.

To date, police reactions have varied between locations. Some police were said to have been allowing demonstrations to continue. But in other places, minor scuffles have been reported, including some arrests.

Off the streets and away from the demonstrators, asymptomatic residents of apartment blocks in lockdown have occasionally continued to protest.

Student demands

Some 40 students at China’s leading Peking University issued a declaration on Sunday that criticized “the implementation of the dynamic zero policy.”

They said the Covid-zero policies had an increasing number of problems and have led to “horrible tragedies”, though they also acknowledged the importance and effectiveness of the safety measures implemented earlier in the pandemic.

Chinese people protesting against Covid restrictions in Beijing. Similar protests have spread across the country. Image: Screengrab / Skynews

They also said: “The most urgent task now is to find a temporary way of coexistence that minimizes the danger of the epidemic while ensuring basic social order and basic economic and livelihood needs.”

To this end, they propose five key measures:

“To avoid the abuse of public power, all regional quarantine blockades should be stopped to ensure that all people in communities, villages, units and schools can enter and leave freely”
“Abolish technical means to monitor the whereabouts of citizens, such as passcodes and [health code] cell phone tracking app. Stop considering the spread of the epidemic as the responsibility of certain individuals or institutions. Devote resources to long-term work such as vaccine, drug development and hospital construction”
“Implement voluntary [PCR] testing and voluntary quarantine for undiagnosed and asymptomatic individuals”
“Liberalize restrictions on the expression of public opinion and allow suggestions and criticism of specific implementation problems in different regions”
“Make truthful disclosures of infection data, including the number of infected people, the death rate, long [Covid] rate, to eliminate epidemic panic during the transition”.

The key issues are how to move from the current “dynamic zero Covid” policy towards something else, and indeed what that should be, given the inadequate health coverage in much of the country.

David S G Goodman is Director, China Studies Centre, Professor of Chinese Politics, University of Sydney

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

asiatimes.com · by David S G Goodman · November 28, 2022

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Senior Advisor, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

V/R

David Maxwell

Senior Fellow

Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Phone: 202-573-8647

Personal Email: d avid.maxwell161@gmail.com

Web Site: www.fdd.org

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Subscribe to FDD’s new podcast, Foreign Podicy

FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

Access NSS HERE