Greetings!

33 contracts signed this week, up from 31. Every one was priced between $4 million and $7.5 million, for a total of $170.9 million.

Above $10 million, 0 contracts signed, after 6 last week.

The middle of the market is buying. The top is waiting. And on Tuesday, the country votes.

That is the million-dollar question this week. Once the results are in, do $10M+ buyers return, or does the November–December seasonal slowdown arrive first? More on that below. Thinking about timing your sale or purchase around the election? Email me here.

Vital Signs: Manhattan $4M+ This Week

33 contracts signed, up from 31 last week (39 the same week in 2025)
0 contracts above $10M, down from 6 last week
37 new listings, down from 42 (47 the same week in 2025)
17 off market, down from 25 (33 the same week in 2025)
$170.9M in contract volume, down 31.7% from $250.1M
Contracts: average price $5.18M, median $5.24M
Average $1,937 per square foot, median $1,812
Days on market: 107, down from 134

New Listings by Property Type

21 condos, 57%
9 co-ops, 24%
7 townhouses, 19%

Contracts by Neighborhood

Midtown: 7 - 21.2%
Downtown: 7 - 21.2%
Upper East Side: 16 - 48.5%
Upper West Side: 3 -9.1%

The Upper East Side led this week's market. 3 Park Avenue co-ops went into contract in 20 days or less, undescoring the activity in the neighborhood even though not one contract this week was $10M or over.

October: Year over Year

128 contracts, compared to 136 in October 2025 (down 5.9%)
221 new listings, compared to 255 (down 13.3%)
108 taken off market, compared to 149 (down 27.5%)

Contracts nearly held, and supply fell more than twice as fast. This October, buyers signed 58 contracts for every 100 new listings, up from 53 a year ago.

Far fewer owners withdrew their homes. Sellers aren’t giving up on this market. They’re holding.

Market Pulse

$4M+ reading is 3.7, up 1.9 points in a month and 0.4 above a year ago. That is firmly seller territory, and it is still rising.

$10M+ reading is 1.05, up 0.7 points in a month but 1.9 below last year, and down from 1.3 last week. This week’s pause is already showing.

Listing Climate

$4M+ is at 0.82, up 61% in a month. It now sits comfortably between “challenging” (0.57) and “easy” (1.27).

$10M+ is at 0.43, up 34% in a month, just above the “challenging” line of 0.38.

Top Three Contracts - SEE ALL 33 CONTRACTS HERE

#1- 200 West 88th Street, 6A | Upper West Side | $7,500,000 | 4 beds, 3.5 baths | $2,654/ft²

#2- 580 Park Avenue, 7A | Lenox Hill | $7,490,000 | 3 beds, 3.5 baths | 133 days to contract

#3- 565 Broome Street, S25B | Hudson Square | $6,700,000 | 2 beds, 2.5 baths | $3,057/ft²

Park Avenue moved fastest. 1125 Park, 5E signed in 8 days, 970 Park, 4N in 10 and 1021 Park, 8/9B in 20. At the other end of the range, two homes found buyers after more than 500 days on the market. Every home has a buyer. Positioning decides whether that takes 8 days or 800.

The Diagnosis: The Election Pause at the Top

This week, Manhattan split in two.

Between $4 million and $7.5 million, buyers aren’t waiting. 33 contracts signed, days on market fell from 134 to 107, and well-positioned Park Avenue co-ops sold in a matter of days.

Above $10 million, buyers paused. 0 contracts this week, after 6 last week. This is the segment most sensitive to policy, taxes and capital markets, and the one most likely to wait for an answer before committing.

So, will pent-up demand return or will the seasonal slowdown set in? My read: buyers at this level don’t wait for a particular winner. They wait for certainty. Once the votes are counted, they will have it.

The Prescription

If you’re selling between $4 and $8 million: Buyers are active now. Price to the market from day one, and this week shows you may not need months. Some sold in under two weeks.

If you’re selling above $10 million: Use the pause. When buyers return after Tuesday, make sure yours is the best-positioned home they see.

If you’re buying above $10 million: This is a rare moment, with almost no competing buyers this week. That leverage may not outlast the election.

If you’re buying between $4 and $8 million: Competition is real. When the right home appears, decide quickly. The best ones are signing in days.

My Final Thoughts

My prediction: If $10M+ buyers return in the window between the election and Thanksgiving. After that, I expect the usual December quiet. For a prepared seller, a quieter December means less competition, not less opportunity.

I’ll report back next week with the first post-election numbers.

Wondering how the election season affects your apartment’s timing? Reply with your building, and I’ll give you my honest read. No pitch, and every conversation stays confidential. Email me here.

If this was useful, forward it to someone who owns in Manhattan or is thinking about it.

Warm regards,

Carol

Carol Staab

Sotheby's International Realty

Why Attorneys & Clients Select Me As Their Luxury Manhattan Real Estate Advisor (video)

My Notable Sale Ritz Carlton $28.4M

Email: Carol.Staab@Sothebys.Realty

Cell: 917-273-7787

Website: CarolStaab.Com

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