Quotes of the Day:
“World War III is a guerrilla information war with no division between military and civilian participation.”
— Marshall McLuhan, “Culture Is Our Business”, 1970, p. 66
"The general who advances without coveting fame and retreats without fearing disgrace, whose only thought is to protect his country and do good service for his sovereign, is the jewel of the kingdom."
-Sun Tzu
"In any problem where an opposing force exists and cannot be regulated, one must foresee and provide for alternative courses. Adaptability is the law which governs survival in war as in life ... To be practical, any plan must take account of the enemy's power to frustrate it; the best chance of overcoming such obstruction is to have a plan that can be easily varied to fit the circumstances met;"
-Sir Basil H. Liddel-Hart (Strategy, 1954)
1. CFC chief LaCamera calls S.Korea-U.S. combined forces 'most lethal, ready'
2. Senior U.S. diplomat for East Asia policy to visit Seoul from Nov. 10-12
3. Seoul vows close communications with UNSC following N.K. sanctions relief proposal
4. Hundreds Of South Korean And U.S. Warplanes Are Conducting A Secretive Exercise In Korea
5. Four out of 10 N. Koreans undernourished: FAO
6. Air force plane to help enforce sanctions on North Korea
7. North Korea can produce more uranium than current rate, report says
8. As North Korea’s economy flounders, hints of easing isolation
9. Over two-thirds of South Koreans back U.S. alliance, up from less than half under Trump
10. Canadian brands sold clothing from factory suspected of secretly using North Korean forced labour
11. South Korea’s Approach to the Metaverse
12. On North Korea, America Refuses to Admit the Obvious
13. In July, Central Committee ordered stockpiling of goods to prepare for "protracted quarantine efforts" by late October
14. North Korea still adheres to airtight quarantine measures despite opening in South
15. As winter looms, reports of starvation in North Korea
16. U.S. remains committed to U.N. sanctions on N. Korea: State Dept.
1. CFC chief LaCamera calls S.Korea-U.S. combined forces 'most lethal, ready'
Almost right here in these excerpts. The history is correct. And especially correct is that the ROK/US CFC "holds" wartime OPCON (when both nations make the decision to CHOP forces to the ROK/US CFC). But I am very pleased to read that Yonhap did not write that the US "holds" OPCON of South Korean forces (because it does not and when OPCON transition takes place and a ROK General Officer takes command, the ROK Government will not have OPCON of US forces. The ROK/US CFC will still answer to the Military Committee that consists of ROK and US representatives of their respective National Command and MIlitary Authorities. Both atures will still equally "co-own" the ROK/US CFC.
The CFC was launched on Nov. 7, 1978, as the allies' pivotal warfighting command to deter North Korean aggression. Upon its inception, it took over operational control over South Korean troops from the U.N. Command (UNC), which was formed to defend the South during the 1950-53 Korean War.
The CFC currently holds wartime operational control, while peacetime operational control was returned to the South in 1994. South Korea handed over the overall operational authority to the UNC at the start of the war in 1950.
The allies are currently working on the transition of the wartime operational control, after which a four-star South Korean general is to lead the allies' combined forces, with a U.S. general playing a supporting role.
CFC chief LaCamera calls S.Korea-U.S. combined forces 'most lethal, ready' | Yonhap News Agency
By Song Sang-ho and Kang Yoon-seung
SEOUL, Nov. 5 (Yonhap) -- The top U.S. military commander in South Korea on Friday touted the combined forces of the two allies as the "most lethal and ready" troops in the world amid lingering concerns over North Korea's evolving nuclear and missile threats.
Gen. Paul LaCamera, the head of the South Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command (CFC), made the remarks during a ceremony at the Yongsan Garrison in Seoul to celebrate the 43rd anniversary of the founding of the command.
His remarks came weeks after Pyongyang fired off a new submarine-launched ballistic missile in a sign that it continues to advance nuclear delivery capabilities, with its nuclear talks with Washington still in limbo.
"As we celebrate our 43rd anniversary, everyone can see that we remain the most lethal, ready and combined force in the world," LaCamera was quoted by his office as saying.
"We remain ready to deter, defend, and -- if necessary -- defeat any adversaries who seek to harm this great country," he added.
The remarks came amid worries here that the Joe Biden administration's reported consideration of a policy shift to reduce the use of its nuclear arms could lead to a weakening of deterrence against the North.
During the ceremony, Deputy CFC Commander Gen. Kim Seung-kyum highlighted the two countries' joint efforts to reinforce the alliance.
"We will keep marching forward together to advance the ROK-U.S. Alliance and Combined Forces Command based on common values and trust," Kim said. ROK stands for South Korea's official name, Republic of Korea.
The CFC was launched on Nov. 7, 1978, as the allies' pivotal warfighting command to deter North Korean aggression. Upon its inception, it took over operational control over South Korean troops from the U.N. Command (UNC), which was formed to defend the South during the 1950-53 Korean War.
The CFC currently holds wartime operational control, while peacetime operational control was returned to the South in 1994. South Korea handed over the overall operational authority to the UNC at the start of the war in 1950.
The allies are currently working on the transition of the wartime operational control, after which a four-star South Korean general is to lead the allies' combined forces, with a U.S. general playing a supporting role.
LaCamera took office as the head of the U.S. Forces Korea, the CFC and the UNC in July, replacing his predecessor, Robert Abrams.
sshluck@yna.co.kr
colin@yna.co.kr
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2. Senior U.S. diplomat for East Asia policy to visit Seoul from Nov. 10-12
Sustained high level diplomatic engagement is the strength of the administration.
Senior U.S. diplomat for East Asia policy to visit Seoul from Nov. 10-12 | Yonhap News Agency
WASHINGTON, Nov. 4 (Yonhap) -- The U.S. assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs plans to visit Seoul next week as part of his first Asian trip since taking office in September, the U.S. State of Department said Friday
Daniel Kritenbrink will arrive in Japan on Sunday (local time) on the first leg of his six-day regional trip and then move to South Korea on Nov. 10 to stay there for three days, the department said.
"During his visits, Assistant Secretary Kritenbrink will meet with senior government officials to reaffirm the U.S. commitment to our allies as we work together to tackle the most serious global challenges of the 21st Century," it said in a statement.
Kritenbrink is expected to meet with his South Korean counterpart, Yeo Seung-bae, deputy minister for political affairs, and other senior officials to discuss issues on the Korean Peninsula, according to Seoul officials.
"Kritenbrink will also emphasize the importance of bilateral and trilateral cooperation among the United States, Japan and the ROK to promote peace, security and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific and beyond," it noted, referring to South Korea's official name, Republic of Korea.
His visit comes as Seoul and Washington are in brisk talks to bring Pyongyang back to denuclearization talks, which remain stalled since a 2019 Hanoi summit between the U.S. and North Korea ended without a deal.
Seoul has been ramping up diplomacy to draw support for its proposal to declare a formal end to the 1950-53 Korean War to revive the peace process and has been in consultations with Washington officials to provide humanitarian aid to the North.
A career diplomat, Kritenbrink served in multiple assignments related to Asia, including senior adviser for North Korea policy at the department and senior director for Asian affairs at the National Security Council. He also spent time working in Tokyo and Beijing, and served as the U.S. ambassador to Vietnam before taking up the current post.
ejkim@yna.co.kr
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3. Seoul vows close communications with UNSC following N.K. sanctions relief proposal
From what I am hearing the ROK will remain committed to sanctions unless and until the north embarks on a substantive path toward denuclearization.
We should remember these words from President Moon from 2018.
"I believe North Korea must move forward actual denuclearization steps to enable such a condition. U.N. sanctions, as you may know, have intensified amid North Korea's continued provocations. I believe if North Korea continues to take sincere denuclearization steps and when it is believed to have reached a point of no return, the U.N. sanctions may start to be eased," he said.
https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20181012008851315
As far as I know this is still the position of the ROK despite how statements from other officials are reported and often misinterpreted.
Seoul vows close communications with UNSC following N.K. sanctions relief proposal | Yonhap News Agency
By Choi Soo-hyang
SEOUL, Nov. 5 (Yonhap) -- South Korea will continue close communications with key U.N. Security Council (UNSC) members, the unification ministry said Friday, after China and Russia again proposed easing sanctions against North Korea.
Deputy ministry spokesman Cha Duck-chul said South Korea was aware that the two countries have circulated such a draft resolution to UNSC members, and that it will closely monitor related moves at the council.
"The government will ... continue close communications with the United States and other key members of the UNSC on how to deal with the situation surrounding the Korean Peninsula," Cha said during a regular press briefing.
On the same matter, the U.S. State Department spokesperson, Ned Price, said Thursday the U.S. remains committed to implementing UNSC sanctions on North Korea and urged all other U.N. members to do the same to prevent the North from advancing its "threatening and unlawful" weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile programs.
The proposal from Beijing and Moscow came amid little progress in nuclear negotiations between Washington and Pyongyang after their Hanoi summit in 2019 collapsed without a deal.
The North has remained unresponsive to U.S. overtures for talks, demanding Washington first retract what it calls "double standards" and "hostile policy" against Pyongyang.
scaaet@yna.co.kr
(END)
4. Hundreds Of South Korean And U.S. Warplanes Are Conducting A Secretive Exercise In Korea
Not so secret now. We should also not read too much into the names of the exercises, whether code names or generic descriptions of training.
We should never ever back down in the face of north Korean increased tension, threats, and provocations.
Never misunderstand the north's propaganda - do not give into demands to reduce exercises or take other measures based on north Korean demands that would in any way reduce the readiness of the combined military forces. The north does not want an end to the exercises because they are a threat, they want to weaken the alliance and force the US troops off of the peninsula which will be the result if they are unable to effectively train.
Hundreds Of South Korean And U.S. Warplanes Are Conducting A Secretive Exercise In Korea
The unpublicized maneuvers are being staged in the wake of a spate of potentially destabilizing missile developments on the peninsula.
Amid a simmering ‘missile race’ on the Korean peninsula, South Korea and the United States are running a large-scale air exercise in the region, with around 200 aircraft reportedly involved. The maneuvers represent a return to the large-scale collaboration of this kind between the two nations that was scaled back dramatically as Washington attempted to negotiate with North Korea about its nuclear weapons program. However, with more recent hopes that Pyongyang might resume talks, the current exercise is being run without any media fanfare. North Korea, for its part, has traditionally complained about these kinds of exercises, whatever the scale.
The drills, the name of which is unknown, began yesterday, according to a South Korea official, talking anonymously to the Yonhap news agency. In a statement to the agency, the Republic of Korea Air Force (ROKAF) said: “We cannot comment on the exercise as it is one that is not disclosed to the media.” The U.S. military has so far not released any information either.
U.S. AIR FORCE
U.S. Air Force F-16s taxi out for an elephant walk during Exercise Vigilant Ace at Osan Air Base, South Korea, in Dec. 2017.
Reports suggest the maneuvers will last for five days and involve ROKAF F-15Ks and F-16s alongside U.S. Air Force F-16s, among a total of around 200 aircraft involved, but that no equipment or troops have been deployed from the U.S. mainland to take part. The permanent U.S. Air Force combat aircraft presence in South Korea is based around two fighter wings, the 8th Fighter Wing at Kunsan Air Base, with two squadrons of Block 40 F-16C/Ds, and the 51st Fighter Wing at Osan Air Base, with one squadron each of F-16C/Ds and A-10Cs. Other assets include a squadron that operates U-2S spy planes and a detachment of HH-60G combat rescue helicopters.
U.S. Air Force/Senior Airman Divine Cox
A ROKAF F-15K Slam Eagle lands at Kunsan Air Base, South Korea, in November 2014.
In the past, these regular exercises were run under the nickname Vigilant Ace and were the largest joint air training maneuvers between South Korea and the United States; they also had a notably high profile in the media. Typical missions practiced include air defense, long-range strike, air infiltration, and close air support of ground forces.
In Dec. 2017, for example, more than 230 military aircraft and 12,000 personnel were involved. U.S. Air Force F-22 and F-35A stealth fighters deployed to Gwangju Air Base in South Korea from Elmendorf Air Force Base in Alaska and Kadena Air Base in Japan, respectively, drawing protests from Pyongyang. A USAF B-1B bomber out of Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, also flew over the peninsula during the same maneuvers, in what was seen as a show of force to the regime in Pyongyang.
ROKAF/Chief Master Sgt. Kim, Kyeong Ryul
A U.S. Air Force B-1B, deployed to Andersen Air Base, Guam, is flanked by two F-15K Slam Eagles, assigned to Daegu Air Base, South Korea, during a flight over South Korea in September 2016.
The following year, the scheduled Vigilant Ace in late 2018 was suspended, in a move approved by then-U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and his opposite number Jeong Kyeong-doo of South Korea. This was the sixth allied exercise to be canned since the June summit meeting in Singapore between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, in which Washington had aimed to put a stop to Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programs in return for the U.S. easing sanctions.
North Korea has long seen these kinds of joint military maneuvers as provocative and has described them as pretexts for attacks to be launched against it, even calling for their cancellation as a condition to continued negotiations. The Pentagon hoped that the cancellation of Vigilant Ace in 2018 would “give the diplomatic process every opportunity to continue,” according to a statement ahead of a second meeting between Trump and Kim Jong Un. That summit was eventually held in Hanoi in February 2019, but collapsed acrimoniously.
U.S. Air Force/Staff Sgt. Deana Heitzman
A 13th Fighter Squadron F-16 pilot steps from her jet prior to a Vigilant Ace exercise at Osan Air Base, South Korea, in November 2017.
Since then, relations between North and South Korea have worsened, with both engaged in the rapid development of new missile technologies focused on adding to their strategic capabilities.
Although Vigilant Ace seems to have been officially omitted from the exercise calendar since 2018, these kinds of collaborations between the two air arms have continued, on a smaller scale and with different labels.
In April 2019, the large-scale Max Thunder exercise involving South Korea, the United States, and Australia was replaced with a scaled-down exercise, described as a Combined Flying Training Event and the same nomenclature was used later the same year for another training event that replaced Vigilant Ace.
U.S. Air Force/Senior Airman Colville McFee
A U.S. Air Force F-16 from the 36th Fighter Squadron, Osan Air Base, South Korea, takes off during Exercise Max Thunder at Kunsan Air Base, South Korea, in April 2017.
In December 2020 there was another Vigilant Ace-style exercise, but involving a somewhat reduced participation list, with around 150 aircraft, of which some 90 were provided by the ROKAF. Again, the maneuvers were not disclosed to the public and the smaller size was attributed to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
In August this year, another round of exercises between South Korea and the United States saw Pyongyang refusing to answer routine calls on its hotline with Seoul, and Kim Jong Un’s sister Kim Yo Jong accused the South of “perfidious behavior.” For its part, the U.S. State Department said that the exercise was “purely defensive in nature” and Washington “harbors no hostile intent towards” North Korea.
AP
Kim Yo Jong sits with South Korean President Moon Jae In during the Winter Olympics in 2018.
Clearly, while the United States is continuing to conduct military drills with South Korea, these are being run in a much more low-key manner, presumably amid hopes in the Biden administration that talks with the North can be restarted. In October, the U.S. envoy for North Korea condemned recent ballistic missile tests but said the United States was committed to exploring “sustained and substantive diplomacy” with North Korea.
So far, however, Pyongyang has not been receptive and has continued to complain vociferously about military exercises in the South, no matter what size they are and their public profile.
NORTH KOREAN STATE MEDIA
Ballistic missiles launched using a railway-based system are among the new weapons developments unveiled by North Korea in recent months.
At the same time, as long as South Korea continues its own missile efforts, then the North will likely still point to what it sees as “double standards.” For South Korea, moreover, there has also been an increasing focus on military independence and self-sufficiency, including a renewed push to break South Korea fully away from the United States in terms of control of the military during the tenure of President Moon Jae In, which will end next year. Traditionally, an agreement with the United States means that the South Korean military would operate entirely under U.S. military control during an actual conflict on the peninsula.
It is questionable whether running exercises under what’s essentially a media blackout will be an effective way of allaying the North’s skepticism over its adversaries’ intentions. On the other hand, it’s clear that, after several years of toned-down drills, the U.S. and Republic of Korea Air Forces are once again staging drills involving hundreds of planes.
Contact the author: thomas@thedrive.com
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5. Four out of 10 N. Koreans undernourished: FAO
Another indicator of the terrible conditions though some would look at the positive reverse stat - 6 out of 10 are not undernourished.
Four out of 10 N. Koreans undernourished: FAO | Yonhap News Agency
SEOUL, Nov. 5 (Yonhap) -- More than four out of 10 North Koreans are suffering from undernourishment, a recent U.N. report showed, as the impoverished country struggles from chronic food shortages.
According to the report by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), 10.9 million people, or 42.4 percent of North Korea's total population, were estimated to have been undernourished between 2018 and 2020.
The figure is up from 33.8 percent reported from 2004 to 2006.
North Korea has suffered chronic food shortages that have been apparently aggravated in recent years due to typhoons, flooding and other abnormal weather conditions, according to multiple reports and sources.
Though North Korea claims to be coronavirus-free, its tight border controls to stave off COVID-19 are also believed to be taking a toll on food supplies.
Last week, the head of the World Food Programme (WFP), David Beasley, called for international cooperation to help improve the North's food situation, warning that the global food crisis is expected to worsen in the years to come due to the pandemic.
scaaet@yna.co.kr
(END)
6. Air force plane to help enforce sanctions on North Korea
Coalition support to sanctions enforcement. The international community needs to be more aggressive in enforcement operations.
Air force plane to help enforce sanctions on North Korea
A New Zealand Air Force aircraft is being deployed to help "detect and deter actions" by North Korea that contravene United Nations sanctions.
P-3 Orion. (Source: istock.com)
The deployment of the P-3 Orion, which will operate out of Japan, was announced by Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta and Defence Minister Peeni Henare on Thursday.
Henare said the deployment aims to help "detect and deter actions that directly contravene United Nations Security Council sanctions on North Korea, such as ship-to-ship transfers of illicit material at sea".
"New Zealand will also have the opportunity to work in close coordination with a number of likeminded partners through these continued efforts," he said.
It is the fifth time New Zealand has deployed a P-3 Orion over North Korea since 2018.
The aircraft will operate out of Kadena Air Base on Japan’s east coast and will conduct air patrols over international waters this month.
The resolutions aim to persuade North Korea to denuclearise and abandon its ballistic missile capabilities. They were adopted unanimously by the UN Security Council between 2006 and 2017.
"Aotearoa New Zealand is committed to supporting the maintenance of peace and security on the Korean Peninsula," Mahuta said.
"Our deployments are part of ongoing international efforts to fully implement United Nations Security Council resolutions. They support the goal of the complete, verifiable, and irreversible denuclearisation of North Korea."
7. North Korea can produce more uranium than current rate, report says
No intention of denuclearization. Just saying.
North Korea can produce more uranium than current rate, report says
CNN · by Story by Reuters
North Korea can get all the uranium it needs for nuclear weapons through its existing Pyongsan mill, and satellite imagery of tailings piles suggests the country can produce far more nuclear fuel than it is, a new academic study concludes.
Despite a self-imposed moratorium on nuclear weapons tests since 2017, North Korea has said it is continuing to build its arsenal, and this year it appeared to have restarted a reactor that is widely believed to have produced weapons-grade plutonium.
According to research published last month in the journal Science & Global Security by researchers at Stanford University and an Arizona-based mining consulting company, North Korea may be able to increase production, and has no need for other uranium mills.
"It is clear that the DPRK appears to have substantially more milling capacity than it has been using to date," said the report, using the initials of North Korea's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. "This means that the DPRK could produce much greater quantities of milled natural uranium if desired."
The Pyongsan Uranium Concentration Plant and its associated mine are North Korea's only publicly acknowledged source of yellowcake, or uranium ore, according to analysts.
Read More
"Given the DPRK's active nuclear program, it is of utmost importance to assess and understand its nuclear materials production capabilities," wrote the report's authors, who submitted their findings in April.
These capabilities govern the rate at which North Korea might expand its nuclear arsenal, determine the magnitude of the threat to international security and the challenge of potential nuclear disarmament, and measure North Korea's ability to fuel its future nuclear energy program, the report said.
Growing nuclear arsenal
The question over how many nuclear weapons North Korea possesses is a key issue for intelligence agencies in South Korea and the United States, as well as for any talks aimed at limiting or reducing North Korea's arsenal.
The United States, which wants Pyongyang to surrender its nuclear arsenal, has said it is open to meeting with North Korea without preconditions. North Korea says talks are only possible after the United States and its allies drop hostile policies.
Intelligence on North Korean nuclear weapons is limited, but David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security, has told Reuters he estimates the country has the capacity to produce material for four to six warheads a year.
The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said in September that North Korea's "nuclear program goes full steam ahead with work on plutonium separation, uranium enrichment and other activities."
There have been no reported accounts of outside inspector access to the Pyongsan uranium mine after the IAEA visited in 1992, leaving details of the mill uncertain, the academic report said.
The authors used artificial intelligence algorithms developed by Orbital Insight, a California-based geospatial analytics company, to analyze satellite imagery for land use patterns around the Pyongsan facility.
Yellowcake from the mine and mill is a key component of North Korea's nuclear fuel production, including its 5-megawatt (MW) reactor, which is seen as capable of producing weapons-grade plutonium.
The IAEA and other analysts reported over the summer that the reactor appeared to be operating for the first time since 2018.
CNN · by Story by Reuters
8. As North Korea’s economy flounders, hints of easing isolation
We continue to see conflicting reports on this. Will they or won't they reopen? The people need relief but will Kim allow the relaxing of the draconian population and resources control measures.
As North Korea’s economy flounders, hints of easing isolation
There are tentative signs that the ‘Hermit Kingdom’ may relax borders following a devastating collapse of trade with China.
As a mysterious virus sickened people in China in early 2020, North Korea became the first country to seal its borders to the world.
After almost two years of near-total isolation due to what the world now knows is COVID-19, there are signs that Kim Jong Un’s secretive regime may be taking tentative steps toward loosening controls as the country grapples with severe economic deprivation following a collapse in trade with China.
South Korea’s spy agency last week told lawmakers that the North was in talks with China and Russia about resuming key cross-border train routes as early as this month and that authorities had in recent months accepted increased shipments of emergency supplies.
The briefing came after the release of Chinese customs data showing that total trade between the allies more than doubled in September to $69.9m.
The figures are still a fraction of the pre-pandemic peak, with total trade in the first nine months of this year reaching $185.3m, compared to $1.95bn during the same period in 2020.
The North, whose dilapidated health system would struggle to handle a major COVID-19 outbreak, has yet to report a single case of the virus, a record doubted by many observers given the country’s vast land border with China.
The World Health Organization also announced last month that it had restarted shipments of medical supplies to the country, after Pyongyang earlier this year rejected an offer of three million doses of the Chinese-made Sinovac vaccine.
North Korea relies on China for more than 90 percent of its trade, with border cities such as Dandong serving as key gateways between the two sides [File: Dake Kang/AP]
Tim Peters, a Christian aid worker who runs Helping Hands Korea in Seoul, told Al Jazeera he had observed a “very limited opening of cross-border transportation” since the summer.
“I am aware of this because certain of our humanitarian shipments were able to be taken across the border about that time to very vulnerable citizens,” Peters said, adding that his organisation worked outside government channels and relied on “unofficial methods”.
Another aid worker, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Al Jazeera that their organisation had been unable to get aid into the country and that any loosening of restrictions appeared to be confined to high-level official trade.
“I realize all things in DPRK are effectively controlled by the government, but there are gradations of control, and from what I am seeing, it seems that whatever trade is happening is at a pretty high level,” the source said, referring to the North by its official name of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
“It doesn’t seem like ‘regular’ traders have been able to resume more pedestrian trading activities.”
Dire conditions
Obtaining accurate information out of North Korea is notoriously difficult due to the regime’s tight control of the country and has become harder still since the pandemic caused diplomats and aid agencies to leave the country en masse last year.
Few observers expect the North, which has long been known as the “Hermit Kingdom,” to open up widely anytime soon, and some analysts caution against overinterpreting recent signs of a tentative loosening of controls.
“Trade figures between China and North Korea obviously do not account for smuggling, and official figures have long been manipulated by the Chinese customs, which is why I don’t think we should use these as robust data points for analysis,” said Theo Clement, an adjunct lecturer at the Pyongyang University of Science and Technology and a consultant who has conducted fieldwork at the China-DPRK border.
“On China-DPRK trade, although various proxies are useful to get a sense of the trade activity between both countries, nothing beats qualitative fieldwork and besides Chinese researchers, we are not going to access the border and set up interviews anytime soon,” he told Al Jazeera.
There is widespread consensus, however, that the country is facing dire economic conditions.
North Korea counts on China for more than 90 percent of its trade, including imports of vital goods such as grains, fertilisers and agricultural equipment, and its population has long relied on cross-border smuggling and black markets to supplement a dilapidated state rationing system.
In addition to its pandemic isolation, the North’s economy has been hard hit by extreme weather and international sanctions aimed at stifling the regime’s nuclear and missile programmes.
The country’s economy contracted 4.5 percent last year, the steepest decline in over two decades, according to a July estimate by South Korea’s central bank.
Even before the pandemic, the United Nations estimated that more than one in four North Koreans suffered from malnourishment.
In July, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization predicted the country could fall short of its food needs by 860,000 tonnes in 2021.
Kim, the third member of his family to rule the secretive state, has himself acknowledged the hardships facing his population, even likening the crisis to the 1950-1953 Korean War.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has acknowledged the growing hardship in the country [File: KCNA/Reuters]
“Even when harvests are good, DPRK is scarcely self-sufficient in grain even at the diminished levels on which it calculates,” Alastair Morgan, who served as the United Kingdom’s ambassador to the North between 2005 and 2008, told Al Jazeera.
“It is not clear to me that any branch of DPRK industry – including the relatively successful light industry – is or can be entirely self-sufficient.”
Morgan said he doubted the North would give up on trying to keep the virus out, but noted authorities may not have anticipated how long the pandemic would last.
“The consequences of closing the air, land and – intermittently – sea borders are likely to be very apparent within the country,” he said.
Peters, the aid worker, said the pandemic isolation had caused informal markets, known as jangmadang, to become “paralysed in obtaining necessary commodities to make available to the public, which has made hardships for ordinary people all the more grave”.
Potential liability
Although the North’s economy has lagged far behind that of neighbouring South Korea for decades, Kim oversaw modest growth in the initial years after he took power following the death of his father in 2011.
In a speech marking the anniversary of the ruling Workers’ Party last month, Kim stressed the need to improve people’s living conditions, after earlier admitting that his five-year economic plan had failed.
Benjamin Katzeff Silberstein, co-editor of North Korean Economy Watch, told Al Jazeera that Kim might feel more confident to “begin to open up” once authorities had completed quarantine facilities under construction at the border.
“In the long run, I do think the economic downturn poses a significant potential liability, although it’s very hard to say,” Katzeff Silberstein said. “The North Korean public has weathered difficult times before, but it’s a different story when the state first spends years sending the signal that the public should expect living conditions to improve, only to see them worsen.”
9. Over two-thirds of South Koreans back U.S. alliance, up from less than half under Trump
Note the statistics about opinions on continued US presence and a possible peace treaty.
"The relatively low level of stability perceived by the public during these past few years implies that they were concerned about the disharmony between [South Korean President Moon Jae-in] and the Trump administration over North Korea policies," said Sukji. "In contrast, the sharp improvement in the sense of stability within the alliance suggests that anxiety regarding the [South Korea]-U.S. alliance is being alleviated due to consistent signaling by the Moon and Biden administration reaffirming their firm relations since the inauguration of the Biden administration in January 2021."
Along with Sukji, a number of foreign policy analysts raised their eyebrows about the relationship between the U.S. and South Korea while under the leadership of Trump. During the latter part of his presidential tenure, Trump threatened North Korea with threats of "fire and fury" before meeting with top leaders and also criticized the long-standing U.S. trade relationship with South Korea. He also demanded that Seoul pay for the majority of the spending bill for housing roughly 28,500 American troops on the peninsula.
Along with the above-referenced stats from the poll, 35 percent of respondents said they are comfortable with U.S. forces remaining in South Korea while another 40 percent said "it should be decided based on the circumstances after the signing of a peace treaty."
The defense policy institute's poll took place September 10 to October 14 and has a 3.1% margin of error.
Over two-thirds of South Koreans back U.S. alliance, up from less than half under Trump
Newsweek · by Andre J. Ellington · November 4, 2021
A recent South Korea study has revealed that over two-thirds of South Koreans are in favor of a continued U.S. alliance, which is a huge increase from when former President Donald Trump was in office.
On Tuesday, the Seoul-based Korea Institute for Defense Analysis created a poll of 1,000 South Koreans regarding the U.S. alliance. Sixty-seven percent of South Koreans view the alliance as a favorable measure under President Joe Biden, which is a "substantial" increase from last year's 47 percent, and the two years prior to 2020 under Trump.
Also in the poll, more South Koreans believe that the U.S. would come to their defense now, as opposed to previous years. When asked if the U.S. would be "fully committed to the defense of South Korea if there is a military provocation by North Korea," 77 percent of respondents were in agreement, compared to 62 percent last year.
A recent South Korea study has revealed that over two-thirds of South Koreans are in favor of a continued U.S. alliance, which is a huge increase from when former President Donald Trump was in office. Pictured above is South Korea's flag. Getty Images
In addition, nearly 94 percent said they agreed it is "contributing to the peace and stability of South Korea."
Hong Sukji, who serves as an institute fellow for the study, revealed in her analysis that the upward trend in the poll has a lot to do with the recent switch in administration as well.
"The relatively low level of stability perceived by the public during these past few years implies that they were concerned about the disharmony between [South Korean President Moon Jae-in] and the Trump administration over North Korea policies," said Sukji. "In contrast, the sharp improvement in the sense of stability within the alliance suggests that anxiety regarding the [South Korea]-U.S. alliance is being alleviated due to consistent signaling by the Moon and Biden administration reaffirming their firm relations since the inauguration of the Biden administration in January 2021."
Along with Sukji, a number of foreign policy analysts raised their eyebrows about the relationship between the U.S. and South Korea while under the leadership of Trump. During the latter part of his presidential tenure, Trump threatened North Korea with threats of "fire and fury" before meeting with top leaders and also criticized the long-standing U.S. trade relationship with South Korea. He also demanded that Seoul pay for the majority of the spending bill for housing roughly 28,500 American troops on the peninsula.
Along with the above-referenced stats from the poll, 35 percent of respondents said they are comfortable with U.S. forces remaining in South Korea while another 40 percent said "it should be decided based on the circumstances after the signing of a peace treaty."
The defense policy institute's poll took place September 10 to October 14 and has a 3.1% margin of error.
Newsweek · by Andre J. Ellington · November 4, 2021
10. Canadian brands sold clothing from factory suspected of secretly using North Korean forced labour
Canadian brands sold clothing from factory suspected of secretly using North Korean forced labour | CBC News
U.S. takes action against what experts call modern slavery; Canada fails to act
Retail giant Reitmans brought more than 100 shipments of clothing into Canada from a Chinese factory suspected of secretly using North Korean forced labour, a months-long CBC Marketplace investigation has found.
And they're not alone.
YM Inc., which owns well-known brands such as Sirens, Stitches, Bluenotes and UrbanKids, also did business with the same factory, Dandong Huayang Textiles and Garment Co. Ltd., up until 2019. Although a smaller volume, the company imported clothing at least 21 times, according to U.S. shipping records.
Join us at 1 p.m. ET as Marketplace producers answer your questions live in the comments about this investigation.
YM says it does not partner with anyone using forced labour.
And Reitmans says it has a policy against using forced labour, and that its orders from the Dandong factory were a small amount of what they've sold on store shelves.
Workers massage their wrists and shoulders outside Dandong Huayang Textile and Garment Co. Ltd. in Dandong, China (CBC)
But experts say the city of Dandong, located on the border of North Korea and China, has a history of employing North Korean workers at their factories, and Dandong Huayang is no exception.
U.S. authorities blocked shipments from Dandong Huayang from entering American stores earlier this year on suspicion of forced labour, assistant port director of the Port of New York and New Jersey, Ed Fox told Marketplace.
"The allegation is that North Korean citizens were being brought into China, held at the factory, several of the key elements of forced labour were present," said Fox. "There was debt-bondage, they were restricted in terms of movement, their travel documents had been seized."
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Watch the full Marketplace investigation tonight at 8 p.m. (8:30 NT) on CBC-TV and CBC Gem
Fox said the U.S. importer attempted to disprove the allegations of forced labour, but the documentation it presented had inconsistencies and so the shipment was ultimately destroyed.
Factory denies having 'illegal workers'
Reports dug up by CBC journalists reveal a government pilot project issued by China Customs (General Administration of Customs, People's Republic of China) to hire North Korean labour in 2014, and local media reports show Dandong Huayang was among the factories that participated.
In a Chinese government notice from 2017, officials describe North Koreans as factory workers who will work long hours, won't talk back and will cost the factory less.
In an email to CBC Marketplace, Dandong Huayang factory management denied having any "illegal workers," and says it has no knowledge of the government pilot project to hire North Koreans years ago.
But when CBC Marketplace dispatched two different undercover teams to Dandong Huayang this summer and captured extremely rare footage of workers at the factory, the team also secretly recorded conversations with a local nearby and a woman wearing what appears to be the factory uniform and logo. Both women told the team that a lot of North Koreans are currently working inside the factory.
Reitmans — which also owns Penningtons and RW&Co — says its recent unannounced audit of Dandong Huayang conducted in December 2020 showed no signs of North Korean workers or forced labour, but after U.K. newspaper The Guardian reported North Korean forced labour at a factory owned by Dandong Huayang, it stopped putting through new orders with the company "out of an abundance of caution."
Still, Marketplace found the retailer selling clothing from an old shipment at Penningtons stores nine months after it said it cut ties with the factory.
Reitmans says it no longer orders clothing from Dandong Huayang Textile and Garment Co. Ltd. (Anu Singh/CBC)
Canadian clothing sales potentially funding North Korea's nuclear program
The UN Security Council adopted sanctions banning the use of North Korean migrant workers after the country launched ballistic missiles in November of 2017.
The Security Council called the actions a "threat to international peace and security," and demanded that all workers be repatriated back to North Korea by the end of 2019, saying their wages bring in foreign currency that the North Korean regime "uses to support it's prohibited nuclear and ballistic missile programs."
WATCH | Are some Canadian clothing sales indirectly funding North Korea's nuclear weapons program?
Reitmans sold clothes from factory accused of using North Korean forced labour
10 hours ago
2:21
Marketplace spent months poring over shipping records and hidden-camera footage from a Chinese factory suspected of using forced labour. The investigation found clothes from the factory being sold inside Reitmans stores. Reitmans told Marketplace that forced labour is banned from its supply chains and that unannounced audits did not uncover any North Korean workers. But after serious concerns were raised last year, Reitmans says it stopped new orders from this factory. Nine months later, however, items from a past order were still on store shelves. 2:21
China is required to enforce the UN sanctions, but several media reports show that many North Koreans are still working in the country, sometimes on visitor visas to avoid detection.
U.S. shipping records, which are publicly available, show a direct link from the Dandong Huayang factory in China to Reitmans Canada headquarters in Montreal and YM Inc. in Toronto. YM Inc. had already stopped ordering from Dandong Huayang by the repatriation deadline, but Reitmans received at least four more shipments since then.
Expert details reports about workers 'falling down from exhaustion'
Professor Remco Breuker of Leiden University in the Netherlands, a leading expert in contemporary North Korea, says anywhere between 70 and 100 per cent of wages made by North Koreans abroad are taken by the state, and that money — directly or indirectly — funds its nuclear program.
He says the reason countries around the world hire them anyway is because they are "obedient and they're cheap … the perfect kind of worker you'd want in a factory."
"These workers can work 12 to 16 hours on a daily basis. And if deadlines need to be met they can work for 24 hours," said Breuker. "There are reports of people just dropping, falling down from exhaustion."
The International Labour Organization defines conditions such as wage theft, excessive overtime and the inability to leave as "forced labour."
Professor Remco Breuker of Leiden University in the Netherlands is a leading expert in contemporary North Korea. He says his research shows anywhere between 70 and 100 per cent of wages made by North Koreans abroad are taken by the state. (Lauren Sproule/CBC)
The U.S. takes action, but Canada fails to act
Fox, the assistant port director in New Jersey, says everyone has a moral obligation to act when it comes to forced labour around the world.
"These people are literally modern-day slaves. We correctly look back on the past and talk in depth about what we can do to address the sins of slavery from the past. That's great that we do that, but we have an opportunity to address sins that are occurring today," said Fox.
"As human beings we have an obligation to do what we can to stop that from happening."
Fox told Marketplace that U.S. port authorities regularly share intelligence around forced labour with their Canadian counterpart, the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA).
A U.S. Customs and Border Patrol officer inspects a shipment at a port in Newark, N.J. The agency regularly detains and seizes shipments it suspects were made with forced labour, but as of October 2021, the Canada Border Services Agency has yet to seize any. (Anu Singh/CBC)
But when Marketplace asked the CBSA why it failed to stop shipments into Canada from the same Dandong factory, the agency responded that it requires "legally sufficient and defensible evidence" in order to stop a shipment on suspicion of forced labour, but admitted that it's never actually done that before.
'We're far behind other countries, and that makes me really sad'
A new law passed in California in September will now hold clothing brands responsible for the wages of all workers in their supply chains within the state.
Canadian brands don't face such scrutiny here.
The government has failed three times to pass the Modern Day Slavery Act, which would require Canadian retailers to carefully monitor their supply chains and report their findings.
Despite the fact that the Modern Day Slavery Act has failed to pass on three separate occasions now, Sen. Julie Miville-Dechêne is still optimistic it will be passed. (Submitted)
Canadian Sen. Julie Miville-Dechêne told Marketplace the fact that Reitmans chose to continue selling clothes from Dandong Huayang illustrates the problem with self-regulation.
"They knowingly [sold] clothes that were at risk of containing forced labour to customers who didn't know about it," she said. "That's the choice they made.... It's unacceptable."
Miville-Dechêne says that without a law, Canadian brands face "unequal competition," whereby the companies that are willing to accept suspected forced labour in their supply chain are able to offer cheaper prices than those that exercise due diligence.
Miville-Dechêne blames delays caused by the pandemic for the recent death of her bill, but she remains optimistic and plans to re-introduce it in the Senate as soon as possible.
"We're far behind other countries, and that makes me really sad because as a Canadian, I think we don't have much excuse for being that far behind," she said, noting that the bill is modest — only asking for transparency — and it could be improved or made stronger at the committee level.
"Some companies will do their best, others will do the minimum. But we have to do something as a country," she said.
Anika Kozlowski, who teaches sustainable and ethical fashion at Ryerson University in Toronto, says it can't be left to the consumer to look at a piece of clothing and determine whether it's been made by forced labour.
The Canadian government, and Canadian brands, must take greater responsibility, she says.
"They absolutely should know how their products are being made and how the people involved are being treated," she said. "There's just no excuse for that."
11. South Korea’s Approach to the Metaverse
Excerpts:
The South Korean government’s early engagement could be good in terms of forming a safe environment for companies to be innovative while setting norms in the new space. The current global debate on the regulation of big tech companies is still ongoing.
As more companies across industries are investing in metaverse platforms and related technologies, there are endless possibilities for how virtual space could be utilized beyond video games. More collaborations between brands, industries, and new products that branch off of this technology are expected.
As South Korea slowly adjusts to the new normal under its “With Corona” policy, virtual engagements are here to stay. It is still too early for the metaverse to significantly alter or replace our reality but at this rate of investment, it might come sooner than we think. It will be interesting to see what role the South Korean government plays in the new realm of technology and how the norms and rules they form could influence industries throughout the world.
South Korea’s Approach to the Metaverse
South Korea’s government is encouraging public-private partnerships to advance the technology.
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Facebook, the biggest social media platform in the world, recently changed its name to Meta and announced its full-fledged pivot to the metaverse. But Facebook is not the only tech company that is invested in exploring a 3D virtual reality where people interact with others using avatars of themselves. Video games such as Roblox and Fortnite are already popular among Gen Z, where they create and interact with each other within their own universe.
The metaverse started as a popular concept in sci-fi novels and movies. The term was coined by Neal Stephenson’s 1992 novel “Snow Crash” then later used in Ernest Cline’s novel “Ready Player One.” But with the development of more advanced technology and the pandemic limiting in-person interactions, the application of the metaverse has been accelerated and more commercialized in the past few years.
South Korea is an emerging key player in the metaverse, spring boarding from its strong gaming industry and popular culture content that attracts global fans.
South Korea has the world’s fourth-largest gaming market, which is expected to exceed 18 trillion won ($16.6 billion) this year and maintain its position as the largest cultural export from South Korea. The gaming industry in one sense has been already utilizing virtual engagement through massively multiplayer online role-playing games (MMOPRG), but Korean game companies are also looking to expand into the metaverse by utilizing their own game characters and intellectual properties. For example, Nexon, the leading game company in South Korea, plans to launch new metaverse content using its popular Maplestory IP. Another leading game company, Netmarble, has created a subsidiary metaverse entertainment company to develop a virtual reality platform for virtual K-pop idols.
The metaverse is increasingly attractive outside of the gaming realm as well. Naver Z Corporation’s Zepeto is currently a leading metaverse platform in South Korea, with over 200 million users globally, 90 percent of whom log in from outside of South Korea. The platform is used for social gatherings as well as shopping; popular brands such as Nike, Gucci, and Ralph Lauren have opened up virtual stores within Zepeto to sell their digital products. Zepeto studio also allows users to design their own items and monetize them. It recently announced that it will incorporate games, directly challenging Roblox.
The K-pop industry is also invested in the popularity of the platform. BTS successfully launched its new single, “Dynamite,” on Fortnite in 2020 and other K-pop artists like Black Pink are utilizing metaverse platforms such as Zepeto to engage with their fans. In 2020, YG Entertainment and Big Hit Entertainment (now under Hybe) announced an investment of 12 billion won (appx. $10.4 million) in Zepeto.
SK Telecom, a South Korean telecommunication company, has also created its own metaverse platform called “ifland.” Unlike Zepeto, ifland allows users to share PDF documents and mp4 files which makes it a popular platform for organizations to host conferences, orientations, trainings, and town hall meetings. The education and tourism industry is also expanding its virtual engagement on the metaverse by hosting student orientations and exhibits to reach a wider audience during the pandemic.
The South Korean government is also supportive of technological innovations in the metaverse and has been leading the way toward public-private partnerships. The Ministry of Science and ICT created a “metaverse alliance” in May 2021 to coordinate and facilitate the development of virtual and augmented reality platforms. So far 500 firms, including Samsung, Hyundai Motors, SK Telecom, and KT have joined the alliance. As a part of President Moon Jae-in’s Digital New Deal 2.0, the government pledged to provide up to 30 billion won ($26 million) in 2022.
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Despite the hype, many metaverse platforms are still in the early stage of development in both South Korea and globally. Along with technological advancement, there are fundamental aspects of this trend that need to be addressed.
Most important of all, fast and reliable internet, and the infrastructure to match, are crucial in order to make these metaverse platforms accessible from anywhere. South Korea is one of the most digitally connected societies in the world, with one of the fastest internet speeds. However, the recent national internet outage caused by a routing problem at KT showcased its vulnerability as well. The largest internet provider in South Korea caused panic and chaos with disruptions in business and education for more than an hour; now KT will pay out up to 40 billion won ($33.97 million) in compensation.
The ongoing legal battle between SK Broadband and Netflix is another example of the internet service providers being stressed with high internet traffic, including from streaming. With more complex technology such as the metaverse and even autonomous vehicles down the road, the development of proper infrastructure that can support the increased internet traffic must follow. South Korea’s nationwide 5G plan coverage is still underway. Currently, 5G service is only available in the major metropolitan areas such as Seoul but is expected to expand in coming years.
Additionally, as the technology is headed into new territory, persistent debates on data protection, privacy, and regulation will also continue. As economic activities expand to the virtual world, use of blockchain technology such as cryptocurrencies and non-fungible tokens (NFT) will increase as more people own and monetize decentralized digital assets. Decentraland is a leading example – users purchase and develop virtual parcels of land as a form of NFT and use its native cryptocurrency, called MANA.
The South Korean government’s early engagement could be good in terms of forming a safe environment for companies to be innovative while setting norms in the new space. The current global debate on the regulation of big tech companies is still ongoing.
As more companies across industries are investing in metaverse platforms and related technologies, there are endless possibilities for how virtual space could be utilized beyond video games. More collaborations between brands, industries, and new products that branch off of this technology are expected.
As South Korea slowly adjusts to the new normal under its “With Corona” policy, virtual engagements are here to stay. It is still too early for the metaverse to significantly alter or replace our reality but at this rate of investment, it might come sooner than we think. It will be interesting to see what role the South Korean government plays in the new realm of technology and how the norms and rules they form could influence industries throughout the world.
12. On North Korea, America Refuses to Admit the Obvious
On North Korea, America Refuses to Admit the Obvious
The reason the United States and its allies in Northeast Asia are having such a difficult time persuading Pyongyang to denuclearize is that Pyongyang has no intention of denuclearizing. Washington is pushing on a locked door.
Anyone who is remotely familiar with the United Nations’ system understands how boring Security Council debates can be. Doubly so when the issue on the docket is North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs, a problem that never seems to go away.
The meetings proceed like clockwork. The Russian and Chinese delegations typically recite a familiar script, where UN sanctions are blamed for North Korea’s catastrophic economic situation and the United States is treated as the intransigent party. The U.S. delegation, meanwhile, fingers Russia and China for lax enforcement of the sanctions, reminds diplomats in the room that Pyongyang habitually violates UN resolutions, and cites the Kim dynasty's unwillingness to negotiate as the central impediment to progress. After the customary speeches, the Security Council adjourns with nothing to show for it.
Russia and China, however, are apparently trying to make a bold play to shift the debate. Both are preparing to unveil a draft Security Council Resolution that would lift or at least relax the export bans and import restrictions that have constricted the North Korean economy since 2017. The resolution would also permit countries around the world to employ North Korean workers, in addition to exempting inter-Korean economic projects from the sanctions.
The Biden administration is likely to be as frosty to the proposal as the Trump administration was when Moscow and Beijing first unveiled it nearly two years ago. Back then, the effort died on the table—there was so little support for the measure that the authors didn’t even bother to request a vote on it.
Yet while the United States and its Western allies on the Security Council will have no trouble using their veto to kill any effort toward sanctions relief, one can’t avoid asking the obvious question: what have economic sanctions on North Korea actually delivered?
It goes without saying that North Korea is one of the most heavily sanctioned countries on earth. Since 2006, the UN has adopted ever stronger penalties on the North Korean economy in a bid to punish Pyongyang for nuclear and missile testing, deprive the Kim dynasty of the resources it needs to continue developing those programs and to convince the North Korean government about the urgency of negotiating denuclearization.
Those sanctions, however, have had no impact in altering Kim Jong-un’s calculus on the nuclear question. While it’s true North Korea’s economy is dismal, Kim himself remains as stridency opposed to denuclearization today as he was when he first began direct negotiations with Donald Trump in 2018. For the North, the last few months have been a hive of activity on the military front. Pyongyang re-started its main plutonium reactor in August and has engaged in an array of increasingly sophisticated missile launches, including the testing of a submarine-launched ballistic missile last month. This does not look like a country that is especially open to Washington’s denuclearization demands. On the contrary, the recent testing reflects just how ineffective U.S. and UN sanctions have truly been at accomplishing anything concrete in the policy realm. If the U.S. objective is to nudge the North Koreans towards becoming a nuclear-weapons-free state, then Washington has moved backward from the moment Kim’s late father ordered the North’s first underground nuclear weapons test fifteen years ago.
Many foreign policy analysts will blame the unwillingness of countries around the world to adhere to the UN sanctions for the dismal results thus far. The conventional answer, as articulated by U.S. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield during her remarks late last month, is to continue putting the economic pressure on. But this totally misses the mark, for if Kim isn’t buckling to sanctions now, it’s highly unlikely more will do the trick. Slapping more sanctions on the North simply doubles down on what clearly amounts to a failed approach.
The reason the United States and its allies in Northeast Asia are having such a difficult time persuading Pyongyang to denuclearize is that Pyongyang has no intention of denuclearizing. Washington is pushing on a locked door.
Viewed from North Korea’s perspective, it's not hard to see why keeping an operational nuclear deterrent makes sense. The country is surrounded by neighbors infinitely more prosperous and militarily capable than itself, with some (Japan and South Korea) having the benefit of being under the U.S. nuclear umbrella. The North Koreans may depend on China for 90 percent of its trade and talk up their relationship in public, but Beijing can’t be relied upon as a strategic ally. Friendship treaties aside, would President Xi Jinping really deploy Chinese troops to the Korean Peninsula if Pyongyang requested it? For Kim Jong-un, relying on China or anyone else to satisfy North Korea’s security needs would be a leap of faith—and faith isn’t exactly a recipe for good policy in the cut-throat world of international politics.
The Biden administration is adamant that it’s willing to meet North Korean officials anytime, anywhere, without preconditions. U.S. special envoy Sung Kim has sought to reassure North Korea that Washington holds no hostile intent.
Pragmatic diplomacy and principled deterrence are the most appropriate tools to manage the North Korea issue. But the only way diplomacy can succeed is if U.S. officials vastly limit expectations as to what they can achieve.
Daniel R. DePetris is a fellow at Defense Priorities and a foreign affairs columnist at Newsweek.
Image: Reuters
13. In July, Central Committee ordered stockpiling of goods to prepare for "protracted quarantine efforts" by late October
An ominous sign. We must be ready for the contingencies that could result from internal instability and then ultimately regime collapse.
In July, Central Committee ordered stockpiling of goods to prepare for "protracted quarantine efforts" by late October - Daily NK
Also, a lack of medical supplies is preventing doctors from diagnosing or treating patients in Yanggang Province
Daily NK recently acquired a copy of an internal directive by the Central Committee of North Korea’s ruling party calling for a drive to stockpile goods in preparation for protracted quarantine efforts to end “by late October.”
According to a Daily NK source in North Korea on Wednesday, the directive was issued to provincial party committees as well as to security organs such as the Ministry of State Security and Ministry of Social Security back in July.
Firstly, through the order, the authorities stressed the crafting of state measures to build the economy and guarantee stable public livelihoods in preparation for protracted emergency quarantine efforts. They also called on economic managers to closely pursue and manage economic organizational efforts tailored to current emergency quarantine protocols.
The order also called on “provincial, city and county emergency quarantine divisions and regiments” to complete “by the end of October” efforts to stockpile quarantine and medical supplies “to deal with the outbreak of a national crisis.” The Ministry of Public Health was ordered to “responsibly” carry out efforts to replace medical supplies for stockpiling.
This apparently underscored the authorities’ demand that officials create a medical system reliant on domestic efforts, not foreign assistance, to keep the border closure going.
Also worth noting is the date the order was issued. The order came just after several cadres suffered severe reprimands after North Korean leader Kim Jong Un mentioned a “grave incident” related to quarantine efforts during an enlarged meeting of the politburo in late June.
There is speculation that Kim, having at the time received reports of high-ranking cadres violating quarantine rules to supply military stores of rice to the people, may have been trying to restore discipline by giving those cadres excessive tasks to undertake.
However, though all government organizations — including party, administrative, security, public safety and military (including special units) organs — launched efforts to secure supplies, those efforts reportedly bore little fruit.
On a related note, Edwin Salvador, the World Health Organization’s representative to North Korea, told AP on Oct. 7 (local time) that North Korean authorities had approved the transportation of supplies from the WHO and other UN agencies that had been stuck in the Chinese port of Dalian. Some of the supplies, including emergency health kits and medicine, had arrived in the North Korean port of Nampo and were undergoing quarantine procedures.
Internal order issued by the Central Committee in July in preparation for protracted emergency quarantine efforts. / Photo: Daily NK
North Korea, it seems, unavoidably decided to accept foreign assistance in the face of difficulties securing supplies.
However, provincial areas reportedly still suffer from serious shortages of medical supplies. Efforts to stockpile and distribute medical supplies likely focused on the capital, Pyongyang.
In fact, in the case of public hospitals in Yanggang Province, a lack of medical supplies is preventing doctors from diagnosing or treating patients, despite the many people who turn up with symptoms of disease or fever.
For example, a man in his 40s identified by his family name of Ri visited the People’s Hospital in Hyesan last month to receive treatment for inflammation. However, he was simply told to get a shot of penicillin; he was unable to receive treatment at the hospital. Finding medicine in the market also proved difficult, and his ailment reportedly worsened.
“With the sky, land and sea under lockdown since last year, I have no idea how we’re going to stockpile quarantine and medical supplies,” said the source. “When even treating patients is difficult due to a lack of medical supplies, telling us to secure supplies in preparation for protracted emergency quarantine efforts is, in fact, an impossible order divorced from reality.”
Meanwhile, the order also called on provincial, city and county officials to take good care of isolation centers and properly supply them with food. Calling for the establishment and improvement of specialized isolation facilities for suspected COVID-19 patients, the measure also appears to be in preparation for protracted emergency quarantine efforts.
Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
14. North Korea still adheres to airtight quarantine measures despite opening in South
Are the counter-COVID measures to mitigate the effects of COVID or are they really cover to maintain strict control over the population?
North Korea still adheres to airtight quarantine measures despite opening in South - Daily NK
A family in Samjiyon, Yanggang Province, was reportedly dragged off to a political prison camp recently after they openly criticized state quarantine policy
Unlike South Korea, where life has been gradually returning to normal since Nov. 1 under the so-called “living with COVID” protocol, North Korea is still locked down and maintaining airtight quarantine measures.
According to a Daily NK source in North Hamgyong Province on Wednesday, the Central Emergency Anti-Epidemic Headquarters and Ministry of Public Health issued a joint order to regions on the China-North Korean border on Oct. 28 calling for better promotion of hygiene efforts.
Local level quarantine and public health officials reportedly responded by conducting meetings with local tong (neighborhood) office officials, inminban (people’s unit) heads and temporarily appointed hygiene officials.
The source said the meetings called for even more thorough quarantine efforts because “viruses survive better in winter,” frightening attendees by likening poor quarantine efforts to “treason.” He added that the meetings said the border would “never reopen this winter” and that everyone must follow state quarantine policy.
In countries such as South Korea, the authorities are relaxing quarantine measures by permitting personal gatherings in accordance with rising vaccination rates. However, in North Korea, where people have yet to receive even their first shot, the authorities are stressing the need for even stronger controls.
There were questions regarding vaccinations at the recent meetings in North Korea, too. Indirectly hearing news of vaccinations in other countries, people in border regions are interested in the local vaccine supply and vaccination plans, according to the source.
However, the quarantine and public health officials who led the meetings criticized the efficacy of vaccines and reemphasized bolstered quarantine measures.
The officials who led the meetings said people are dying and virus variants have been appearing even in countries that invested lots of money in vaccines. Officials should not place their hopes on vaccines; the only way to survive is to shut the border, the meeting leaders claimed. They also said people were especially frightened because a single infected person could lead to mass death.
North Korea currently has strong quarantine measures in place, including mandatory mask wearing outside the home, a ban on personal gatherings except for state events, restricted travel passes and a nighttime travel ban. Accordingly, locals who fail to wear a mask, hold drinking or meal parties, or violate curfew are sent to forced labor brigades for violating quarantine rules.
Disease control officials in Pyongyang spraying buses with disinfectant. / Image: Rodong Sinmun
It is in this environment that North Korea is calling for an even tougher quarantine posture with a higher state of wariness against the entry and spread of COVID-19.
Prior to this, the official ruling party newspaper Rodong Sinmun ran an article entitled “Let’s Not Let Our Guard Down, Even for a Moment” on Nov. 1. The article said emergency quarantine efforts were still the “highest priority and most central task” before the nation. It called on all regions and officials in all units to continue bolstering “emergency epidemic prevention work” with the firm perspective that “one can never be satisfied” with their quarantine efforts.
However, with strong social controls and crackdowns in the name of quarantine efforts continuing for over a year now, the public is growing ever fatigued.
In particular, a family in Samjiyon, Yanggang Province, was reportedly dragged off to a political prison camp recently after they openly criticized state quarantine policy.
A source in Yanggang Province said all of Samjiyon was put under lockdown after a woman in her 20s returned to the city after illegally crossing the border into China last year. Locals continued to blame the family, which was put under surveillance. Out of anger, the family lashed out at party quarantine policy, and was dragged off to a political prison camp in late October.
In fact, the family said that in countries where people are vaccinated, they consider COVID-19 like the common cold, but in North Korea, the authorities were “refusing to import vaccines while making a fuss by closing the border and deploying special forces [the Storm Corps].”
“Couldn’t you use the money spent to fire rockets to buy vaccines,” they reportedly said before being charged as reactionaries.
North Koreans suffering under the protracted border closure thus want life to return to normal by way of vaccinations. However, it will apparently take considerable time before normal life returns as the authorities seemingly prefer to manage the situation through tough controls and crackdowns, rather than by distributing vaccines.
Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
15. As winter looms, reports of starvation in North Korea
Again, these indicators bear watching to observe for potential contingencies.
As winter looms, reports of starvation in North Korea
By Laura Bicker
BBC News, Seoul
Published
47 minutes ago
The warnings are stark and coming from inside and outside of North Korea. Defectors based in South Korea have told us that their families in the North are going hungry. There is a concern as winter approaches that the most vulnerable will starve.
"Problems such as more orphan children on the streets and death by starvation are continuously being reported," said Lee Sang Yong, editor in chief of the Daily NK, which has sources in North Korea.
"The lower classes in North Korea are suffering more and more," as food shortages are worse than expected, Mr Lee said.
Getting information out of North Korea is increasingly difficult. The border has been closed since January last year to prevent the spread of Covid-19 from China. Even getting messages out of the country to family and friends who have defected to South Korea comes at a huge risk.
Anyone caught with an unauthorised mobile phone could be thrown into a labour camp. And yet some still try to send letters or voice mail via text to their loved ones and to publications in Seoul.
Through these sources, some of which have to remain anonymous, we have tried to build a picture of what is going on.
'Every grain of rice'
North Korea has always struggled with food shortages, but the pandemic has made a bad situation worse. Leader Kim Jong-un has compared the current situation to the country's worst disaster in the 1990's, known as the "Arduous March", where hundreds of thousands of people died in a famine.
The situation is not thought to be that bad - yet. There are some hopeful signs. North Korea appears to be preparing to re-open the border with China, but it's unclear how much trade and aid will be needed to repair the economic damage already wrought on the impoverished country.
This year's harvest is crucial. Last year's crops were partly destroyed by a series of typhoons. The United Nations estimates that the country is short of at least two to three months' supply of food.
To ensure this year is as successful as possible, tens of thousands of people have been sent into the fields to help gather rice and corn, including the army.
Kim Jong-un has also reportedly ordered that every grain of rice in the country is to be secured and that everyone who eats should go and help with the harvest.
"A plan has been devised to minimise losses in the harvesting process," said Mr Lee, from the Daily NK.
"It emphasises that strict punishment will be imposed if theft or cheating is reported. It's creating an atmosphere of fear."
Image caption,
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un seems willing to openly acknowledge the severity of the situation
Last week, South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) told a closed-door parliamentary hearing that Mr Kim said he felt he was "walking on thin ice due to the economic situation", according to lawmakers at the briefing.
The NIS also reportedly said the lack of medicine and essential supplies has accelerated the spread of infectious diseases such as typhoid fever.
This growing concern has been amplified by state media, which has highlighted measures being taken to prevent crop damage and released propaganda posters emphasising efforts to work on food production.
Modern farming
North Korea is facing two major issues with its food supply.
The first is its farming methods. Pyongyang may have invested in new military technology and missiles, but it lacks the modern machinery needed for a speedy and successful harvest, according to experts.
Choi Yongho from the Korean Rural Economic Institute told us that "the insufficient supply of agricultural equipment results in low food productivity".
We managed to see this for ourselves.
From a new lookout point in the western tip of South Korea, with the affluent skyscrapers of Seoul as a backdrop, my team and I got a good view over the Han River into North Korea. It feels so close - and yet so far.
Image caption,
From a new lookout point in the western tip of South Korea people can get a good view into the North
I heard one young girl remark through her binoculars that they were the "same people".
"They're just like us", she said, as she bounced back to her mum.
The villagers, dozens of them, were busy creating bails of rice and carrying them on their backs to a rather run-down tractor.
A South Korean farmer in Paju, near the demilitarised zone which separates the two countries, said it took him an hour to strip his fields of rice with a machine. If he'd done it by hand, as it's done in the North, he said one field would take him a week.
Image caption,
A South Korean farmer strips his fields of rice with a machine
Highly vulnerable
But along with the lack of technology and farming supplies, North Korea is facing a much longer-term problem if it wants to secure its food supply.
The country has been listed by US intelligence agencies as one of 11 countries most vulnerable to the effects of global warming, and the limited area it has to grow crops could be the hardest hit.
"Rice and maize yield failures will become more likely along the Western coastline, which is North Korea's historical breadbasket," said Catherine Dill, from the Council on Strategic Risks - one of the authors of a recent report on 'Converging Crises in North Korea'.
That may explain why Pyongyang sent its UK ambassador to the 26th UN Climate Change Conference in Glasgow.
"North Korea is particularly vulnerable to natural disasters. Flood, monsoon rains and typhoons trouble them every year which directly affect yield and indirectly cause pest problems," said Mr Choi.
Image caption,
North Korea is particularly vulnerable to natural disasters
The 'Converging Crises' report suggests this will get much worse in years to come and rice production in particular will be affected by droughts and flooding.
"More intense storms already appear to be affecting North Korea, there are really prominent examples of this in both the 2020 and 2021 typhoon seasons. And in terms of sea level rise, coastal areas are going to be increasingly at risk," Ms Dill said.
While Pyongyang rarely engages with the outside world, it has often made an exception for climate change and the environment.
North Korea worked with the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) on detailed country reports in 2003 and 2012, and is also a signatory to international treaties including the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement.
One reason for this engagement on climate change may be its impact on food production.
The 2012 UNEP report noted that the average temperature in North Korea increased by 1.9°C between 1918 and 2000, among Asia's fastest warming rates.
According to a 2019 Green Climate Fund report, annual average temperatures in North Korea are further expected to rise by 2.8-4.7°C by the 2050's.
South Korea sees a chance here to work together on a problem that affects them both.
Seoul's Environment Minister Han Jeoung-ae told me last week that she hoped to meet her counterpart in Glasgow to talk about inter-Korean collaboration on climate change but that hasn't happened.
If the North Korean delegation is listening to the speeches in Scotland they will know that even when the fear of this pandemic eases and trade with China resumes, even when goods once again start to flow over the border, the country faces a growing crisis which will profoundly affect an already vulnerable population.
And it cannot overcome this on its own.
16. U.S. remains committed to U.N. sanctions on N. Korea: State Dept.
The most important policy statement on Korea in recent days. There should be no question that we will never again submit to north Korean blackmail diplomacy.
(LEAD) U.S. remains committed to U.N. sanctions on N. Korea: State Dept. | Yonhap News Agency
(ATTN: UPDATES with more remarks, additional information, more background from 5th para; ADDS photo)
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, Nov. 4 (Yonhap) -- The United States remains committed to implementing U.N. Security Council sanctions on North Korea, a State Department spokesperson said Thursday.
Ned Price said the United States also urges all other U.N. members to do the same to prevent North Korea from further advancing its nuclear and weapons of mass destruction (WMD) capabilities.
"We do remain committed to the sanctions regime. We call on all U.N. members to fulfill their sanctions obligations under existing U.N. Security Council resolutions to limit the DPRK's ability to acquire resources and technology needed to advance its threatening and unlawful WMD and ballistic missile programs," he said in a daily press briefing.
DPRK stands for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the North's official name.
The remarks come after a report said China and Russia have circulated a draft resolution to U.N. Security Council members to lift a "host of sanctions" against North Korea.
Price declined to comment directly on what he called "internal workings of the U.N. Security Council," only reiterating U.S. commitment to working with North Korea through diplomacy.
"We continue to seek sustained and serious diplomacy with the DPRK. We call on Pyongyang to refrain from provocations and to engage in discussions. Our goal, as we have said on any number of occasions, remains the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula," he said.
North Korea is ignoring U.S. overtures for dialogue, accusing Washington of being hostile toward it.
"We have no hostile intent towards the DPRK. Our intent is to engage in sustained, constructive diplomacy, including with the DPRK," the department spokesperson said.
Price also reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to helping the people of the impoverished North.
"We've also made the point that even when we have profound disagreements with a particular government or a particular regime, as of course we do in the case of the DPRK, we take into account the humanitarian conditions of the people of that country," he said.
"And so we are concerned about the humanitarian situation in the DPRK. We are working with our allies and our partners to determine how we might be able to support the humanitarian needs of the North Korean people, and that is something that we're committed to do."
bdk@yna.co.kr
(END)
V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
