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Quotes of the Day:
A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody.
~Thomas Paine
"Don't explain your philosophy. Embody it."
~ Epictetus
"Although ancient states were great, they inevitably perished when they were fond of war"
- Sima Rangju
1. N. Korea fires four short-range ballistic missiles toward Yellow Sea: S. Korean military
2. Allies wrap up joint air drills involving two B-1B bombers
3. N. Korea fires more missiles as US flies bombers over South
4. S. Korean military seeks to salvage debris from N. Korea’s SRBM
5. Experts See US Firm Response To Expected North Korean Nuke Test
6. 3 heroes swept in and saved 30 in Itaewon, then vanished
7. Nuclear Weapons Use Will ‘End’ Kim Regime, US, South Korea Say
8. S. Korea, U.S. agree on four categories of 'extended deterrence' cooperation
9. US urges UNSC action to punish NK over recent provocations, China and Russia again refuse
10. EXPLAINER: How impoverished N. Korea finances testing spree
11. North Korea’s Doctrinal Shifts Are More Dangerous Than Missile Launches
12. North Korea: What missiles does it have?
13. US Ups N.Korea Pressure But Fears No End To Headache
1. N. Korea fires four short-range ballistic missiles toward Yellow Sea: S. Korean military
AKA The West Sea.
Kim wants us to think he is doing this in response to alliance actions. He is not and we should not be duped. He is remaining true to his political warfare and blackmail diplomacy strategies while continuing to advance his military warfighting capabilities.
And we should remember the amount of resources he is expending on these missile launches means that the Koreans in the north continue to suffer and go with help from the regime/party. Kim's deliberate policy decision to test missiles is responsible for the lack of resources to support the Korean people.
And this is one reason why many escapees are opposed to providing humanitarian assistance. If Kim does not divert to the military as the regime has consistently done in the past, whatever reaches the people in need is used to pacify them and prevent resistance to the regime. So almost any humanitarian assistance, while provided with good intentions, in reality is providing support to the regime. Humanitarian assistance does not support human rights and is not part of a human rights upfront approach.
(LEAD) N. Korea fires four short-range ballistic missiles toward Yellow Sea: S. Korean military | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 김은정 · November 5, 2022
(ATTN: UPDATES with latest details from fifth para; ADDS photo)
SEOUL, Nov. 5 (Yonhap) -- North Korea fired four short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM) toward the Yellow Sea Saturday, the South Korean military said.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said it detected the launches from Tongrim County in North Pyongyan Province between around 11:32 a.m. and 11:59 a.m.
The missiles flew about 130 kilometers at an apogee of 20 km with a top speed of Mach 5, it added.
The North's latest provocation came on the last day of the extended large-scale combined air drills of the South and the United States.
On Saturday two B-1B strategic bombers joined the Vigilant Storm exercise alongside four South Korean F-35A stealth fighter jets and 4 U.S. F-16 fighters, the JCS said.
It marked the first time the B-1B Lancer has been deployed to the Korean Peninsula since 2017, in a demonstration of Washington's firm commitment to extended deterrence for South Korea and the allies' combined defense posture, JCS added.
The North has launched a barrage of ballistic missiles into the East Sea and the Yellow Sea, including an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), apparently in protest against the Vigilant Storm.
ejkim@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 김은정 · November 5, 2022
2. Allies wrap up joint air drills involving two B-1B bombers
The Bone is quite an aircraft.
But there should be no doubt about the US commitment to deterrence and defense. Kim almost certainly gets this message and knows the US is committed. BUt he must continue to execute his playbook. He only has one playbook and he is a one (or two) trick pony with political warfare and blackmail diplomacy all that he can employ short of the threshold of war.. We cannot deter provocations but we can deter war and nuclear attack. That has to be our focus and the number one mission of the combined military force. It is only the press, the pundits and the ill-informed who think that deterrence is about deterring provocations and missile and nuclear tests.
And yes we should always keep in mind Sir Lawrence Freedman's cautionary note: "Deterrence works, until it doesn't."
(LEAD) Allies wrap up joint air drills involving two B-1B bombers | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 김은정 · November 5, 2022
(ATTN: UPDATES with deployment of B-1B bombers, N. Korea's SRBM launches, other details; ADDS photos; CHANGES headline)
SEOUL, Nov. 5 (Yonhap) -- Two U.S. B-1B Lancer strategic bombers staged joint drills with South Korean F-35A stealth fighter jets over the Korean Peninsula on Saturday, the last day of the allies' Vigilant Storm exercise, according to Seoul's defense authorities.
It marked the first time that the long-range supersonic bomber has been deployed to Korea since 2017, the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said.
After flying from Guam, the B-1Bs made a sortie over the peninsula alongside four F-35As and four U.S. F-16 fighters as part of the extended Vigilant Storm practice.
The move has demonstrated Washington's firm commitment to extended deterrence for South Korea and the allies' combined defense posture to deal resolutely with North Korea's provocation whatever it is, the JCS said.
The allies kicked off the combined air training on Monday for a five-day run. But they extended it through Saturday in response to the North's continued saber-rattling.
In ferocious protest, the North fired more than 30 missiles of various types this week alone, including an intercontinental ballistic missile on Thursday.
On Saturday, the North shot four short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) into the Yellow Sea.
The Vigilant Storm involved also involved more than 100 U.S. assets, including F-35Bs, EA-18 electronic warfare aircraft and KC-135 tankers.
It was the first massive combined air drills by the allies in about five years.
Earlier this week, Pak Jong-chon, Pyongyang's top military official, accused Seoul and Washington of pushing regional security to an "uncontrollable" stage with the decision to extend the Vigilant Storm and the North fired dozens of artillery shells into the eastern maritime buffer zone set under the 2018 inter-Korean military accord.
In Washington D.C., South Korean Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup had annual talks with his American counterpart Lloyd Austin on Thursday (local time).
They "reaffirmed the commitment of the U.S. to deploy United States strategic assets to the Korean Peninsula in a timely and coordinated manner as necessary, to enhance such measures, and identify new steps to reinforce deterrence in the face of the DPRK's destabilizing activities," read a joint communique. The DPRK is the acronym for the North's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 김은정 · November 5, 2022
3. N. Korea fires more missiles as US flies bombers over South
Admit nothing, deny everything and make counter accusations. The regime is very good at making counter accusations.
Excerpts;
In Friday’s statement attributed to an unidentified spokesperson, North Korea’s Foreign Ministry said the United States and South Korea had created a seriously “unstable atmosphere” in the region with their military exercises. It accused the United States of mobilizing its allies in a campaign using sanctions and military threats to pressure North Korea to unilaterally disarm.
“The sustained provocation is bound to be followed by sustained counteraction,” the statement said.
North Korea has launched dozens of ballistic missiles this year, including multiple ICBMs and an intermediate-range missile flown over Japan. South Korean officials say there are indications North Korea in coming weeks could detonate its first nuclear test device since 2017. Experts say North Korea is attempting to force the United States to accept it as a nuclear power and seeks to negotiate economic and security concessions from a position of strength.
N. Korea fires more missiles as US flies bombers over South
AP · by KIM TONG-HYUNG · November 5, 2022
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korea added to its recent barrage of weapons demonstrations by launching four ballistic missiles into the sea on Saturday, as the United States sent two supersonic bombers streaking over South Korea in a dueling display of military might that underscored rising tensions in the region.
South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said that the four short-range missiles fired from a western coastal area around noon flew about 130 kilometers (80 miles) toward the country’s western sea.
The North has test-fired more than 30 missiles this week, including an intercontinental ballistic missile on Thursday that triggered evacuation alerts in northern Japan, and flew large numbers of warplanes inside its territory in an angry reaction to a massive combined aerial exercise between the United States and South Korea.
The South Korean military said two B-1B bombers trained with four U.S. F-16 fighter jets and four South Korean F-35s jets during the last day of the “Vigilant Storm” joint air force drills that wraps up Saturday. It marked the first time since December 2017 that the bombers were deployed to the Korean Peninsula. The exercise involved around 240 warplanes, including advanced F-35 fighter jets from both countries.
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Rival Koreas scramble warplanes in extension of tensions
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North Korea’s Foreign Ministry late Friday described the country’s military actions this week as an appropriate response to the exercise, which it called a display of U.S. “military confrontation hysteria.” It said North Korea will respond with the “toughest counteraction” to any attempts by “hostile forces” to infringe on its sovereignty or security interests.
South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said the participation of the B-1Bs in the joint drills demonstrated the allies’ readiness to “sternly respond” to North Korean provocations and the U.S. commitment to defend its ally with the full range of its military capabilities, including nuclear.
B-1B flyovers had been a familiar show of force during past periods of tensions with North Korea. The planes last appeared in the region in 2017, during another provocative run in North Korean weapons demonstrations. But the flyovers had been halted in recent years as the United States and South Korea stopped their large-scale exercises to support the former Trump administration’s diplomatic efforts with North Korea and because of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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The allies resumed their large-scale training this year after North Korea dialed up its weapons testing to a record pace, exploiting a divide in the U.N. Security Council over Russia’s war on Ukraine as a window to accelerate arms development.
North Korea hates such displays of American military might at close range. The North has continued to describe the B-1B as a “nuclear strategic bomber” although the plane was switched to conventional weaponry in the mid-1990s.
Vigilant Storm had been initially scheduled to end Friday, but the allies decided to extend the training to Saturday in response to a series of North Korean ballistic launches on Thursday, including an ICBM that triggered evacuation alerts and halted trains in northern Japan.
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Thursday’s launches came after the North fired more than 20 missiles on Wednesday, the most in a single day. Those launches came after North Korean senior military official Pak Jong Chon issued a veiled threat of a nuclear conflict with the United States and South Korea over their joint drills, which the North says are rehearsals for a potential invasion.
South Korea also on Friday scrambled about 80 military aircraft after tracking about 180 flights by North Korean warplanes inside North Korean territory. The South’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said the North Korean warplanes were detected in various areas inland and along the country’s eastern and western coasts, but did not come particularly close to the Koreas’ border. The South Korean military spotted about 180 flight trails from 1 p.m. to 5 p.m., but it wasn’t immediately clear how many North Korean planes were involved and whether some may have flown more than once.
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In Friday’s statement attributed to an unidentified spokesperson, North Korea’s Foreign Ministry said the United States and South Korea had created a seriously “unstable atmosphere” in the region with their military exercises. It accused the United States of mobilizing its allies in a campaign using sanctions and military threats to pressure North Korea to unilaterally disarm.
“The sustained provocation is bound to be followed by sustained counteraction,” the statement said.
North Korea has launched dozens of ballistic missiles this year, including multiple ICBMs and an intermediate-range missile flown over Japan. South Korean officials say there are indications North Korea in coming weeks could detonate its first nuclear test device since 2017. Experts say North Korea is attempting to force the United States to accept it as a nuclear power and seeks to negotiate economic and security concessions from a position of strength.
AP · by KIM TONG-HYUNG · November 5, 2022
4. S. Korean military seeks to salvage debris from N. Korea’s SRBM
I suspect this will be a very challenging operation but I defer to the naval experts.
S. Korean military seeks to salvage debris from N. Korea’s SRBM
donga.com
Posted November. 05, 2022 07:24,
Updated November. 05, 2022 07:24
S. Korean military seeks to salvage debris from N. Korea’s SRBM. November. 05, 2022 07:24. by Sang-Ho Yun ysh1005@donga.com.
The South Korean military is conducting an operation to salvage debris from a submarine-launched ballistic missile, fired Wednesday by North Korea across the Northern Limit Line for the first time. Suppose the military succeeds in the operation by collecting key parts, including projectile and warhead. In that case, they can be important clues to identifying the specifications of Pyongyang’s SRBMs that belong new KN group.
According to the South Korean military on Friday, the Navy’s maritime salvage and rescue ship Gwangyang (3,500 tons) have been mobilized to the waters where the North’s SRBM fell and carefully examined the sites. One of the SRBM, fired from the Wonsan in Kangwon in the North, crossed the NLL about 190 kilometers before falling into waters 57 kilometers east of the port of Sokcho and 167 kilometers northwest of the Ulleung Island in the East Sea. Insiders and outsiders of the military speculate that the missile is a new KN-group SRBM.
“We are carefully and extensively searching for debris of the missile by using various search equipment including the sonar and remotely operated underwater vehicles (ROV) on the Gwangyang because the waters in the areas are quite deep,” a South Korean military official said. When the North fired long-range missiles in 2012 and 2016, the South Korean navy also deployed a maritime salvage and rescue ship and collected debris. Suppose the military succeeds in salvaging debris this time. In that case, the findings will provide a significant clue to identifying the performance and technology for the North’s new SRBM, which uses a solid fuel engine.
Additionally, the military is reportedly speculating that the three SRBMs, which the North fired from Goksan in North Hwanghae Province in a show of protest against the South Korea and U.S. allied forces’ decision to extend their joint aviation drill ‘Vigilant Storm,’ are missiles that belong to the Scud-B and C groups that use liquid fuel projectiles.
한국어
donga.com
5. Experts See US Firm Response To Expected North Korean Nuke Test
My recommendations are here:
How To Prepare: North Korea Could Soon Test An ICBM Or Nuclear Weapon
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/03/how-to-prepare-north-korea-could-soon-test-an-icbm-or-nuclear-weapon/
How To Respond To North Korea’s ICBM Test
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/03/north-koreas-icbm-test/
North Korea’s Provocations: Time For An Asymmetric Approach
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/10/north-koreas-provocations-time-for-an-asymmetric-approach/
North Korea’s Ballistic Missile Test: A 6 Step Strategy To Respond
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/01/north-koreas-ballistic-missile-test-a-6-step-strategy-to-respond/
I think the alliance has been executing a number of these six steps. But there is still more we can do.
The ROK and U.S. should make sure the press, pundits, and public understand that this is a fundamental part of North Korean strategy and that it conducts provocations for specific objectives. It does not represent a policy failure; it represents a deliberate policy decision by Kim Jong-un to continue to execute his political warfare strategy. The following is a response framework for consideration:
First, do not overreact. But do not succumb to the criticism of those who recommend ending exercises. Always call out Kim Jong-un’s strategy As Sun Tzu would advise- “ …what is of supreme importance in war is to attack the enemy’s strategy; … next best is to disrupt his alliances.” Make sure the international community, the press, and the public in the ROK and the U.S. and the elite and the Korean people living in the north know what Kim is doing.
Second, never ever back down in the face of North Korean increased tension, threats, and provocations.
Third, coordinate an alliance response. There may be times when a good cop-bad cop approach is appropriate. Try to mitigate the internal domestic political criticisms that will inevitably occur in Seoul and DC. Do not let those criticisms negatively influence policy and actions.
Fourth, exploit weakness in North Korea – create internal pressure on Kim and the regime from his elite and military. Always work to drive a wedge among the party, elite, and military (which is a challenge since they are all intertwined and inextricably linked).
Fifth, demonstrate strength and resolve. Do not be afraid to show military strength. Never misunderstand the north’s propaganda – do not give in to demands to reduce exercises or take other measures based on North Korean demands that would in any way reduce the readiness of the combined military forces. The north does not want an end to the exercises because they are a threat, they want to weaken the alliance and force U.S. troops from the peninsula which will be the logical result if they are unable to effectively train.
Sixth, depending on the nature of the provocation, be prepared to initiate a decisive response using the most appropriate tools, e.g., diplomatic, military, economic, information and influence activities, cyber, etc., or a combination.
There is no silver bullet to the North Korea problem. Therefore, the focus must be on the long-term solution to the security and prosperity challenges on the Korean peninsula. This requires the execution of a superior ROK/U.S. alliance political warfare strategy. It must focus on resolving the Korean question, e.g., “the unnatural division of the peninsula” (per paragraph 60 of the 1953 Armistice Agreement). Solve that question and the nuclear issues and the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity will be ended. The question to ask is not what worked and what did not, but whether the ROK/U.S. alliance actions move the region closer to the acceptable, durable political arrangement that will protect, serve, and advance U.S. and ROK/U.S. alliance interests.
Experts See US Firm Response To Expected North Korean Nuke Test
eurasiareview.com · by VOA · November 4, 2022
By Christy Lee
Geopolitical rivalry between Washington and Beijing, coupled with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, are decreasing opportunities for diplomacy and increasing the likelihood of the U.S. taking firmer actions against North Korea than it has in the past if Pyongyang undertakes an expected seventh nuclear test, experts said.
“There is no question that the United States and [South Korea] will react quickly, decisively, and in sync to a seventh North Korean nuclear test,” said Evans Revere, a former State Department official with extensive experience negotiating with North Korea.
At a press briefing on Tuesday, U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price said, “There would be a profound cost and profound consequences” if North Korea conducts a nuclear test.
Last week, the U.S., South Korea, and Japan warned they will respond to a North Korean nuclear test on an “unparalleled” scale.
Bruce Klingner, senior research fellow on Northeast Asia at the Heritage Foundation, said, “Another North Korean nuclear test will lead to U.S. rotational deployment of strategic assets, including bombers, dual-capable aircraft, and carrier strike groups.”
The U.S. sent its nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan to the South Korean port of Busan in September to conduct joint drills with Seoul and redeployed it to South Korea as a show of force after Pyongyang launched an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) over Japan on October 4. The U.S. deployed two B-1B bombers with nuclear capabilities to Guam in October as threats grew. These could be sent to South Korea on a rotational basis.
These deployments would be coupled with “extensive allied military exercises” and the “issuing of new sanctions against North Korean entities” by the U.S. and its allies and partners, Klingner said.
North Korea fired what appears to be an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and two short-range ballistic missiles toward the East Sea on Thursday (local time), said South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff.
On Wednesday, North Korea fired at least 23 missiles off its east and west coasts, a record number in a single day. One of the missiles, a short-range ballistic missile, fell into a disputed inter-Korean maritime border zone for the first time since the peninsula divided into two Koreas in 1945.
In response, South Korean fighter jets fired three precision air-to-surface missiles crossing into the North’s side of the maritime border.
Pyongyang threatened on Tuesday to launch a “strategic mission” against the U.S. and South Korea to make them pay “a terrible” and “horrible price” if the allies continue “an aggressive and provocative” joint air drill called Vigilant Storm “targeting” North Korea.
The U.S. and South Korea began large-scale joint aerial drills on Monday involving about 240 warplanes and 1,600 sorties, the largest number ever involved in the annual operation, according to the U.S. Air Force.
Rising tensions
Tensions from the latest flareup on the Korean Peninsula, building from North Korea’s recent sequence of missile tests that began September 29, is expected to escalate even further after its anticipated nuclear test.
Ken Gause, director for the Adversary Analytics Program and CNA, said the escalating tension has yet to reach its peak. He said the tension is “still ascending” much as it was before North Korea’s sixth nuclear test on September 3, 2017.
In 2017, tensions peaked with North Korea’s sixth nuclear test and three intercontinental ballistic missile tests. North Korea conducted the ICBM tests on July 4, July 28, and November 29 of that year.
After the sixth nuclear test, a diplomatic opportunity opened up and tensions eased into dialogues that remain stalled, but current tensions are less likely to subside. Instead, experts told VOA the tensions are likely to become increasingly dangerous given the security environment dominated by rising threats from China and Russia and their ties with North Korea.
China and Russia
“Moscow is making nuclear threats in Europe and [China] has adopted a more aggressive posture in the East Asia region,” Revere said.
“Pyongyang has very emphatically aligned itself closely with [China] and Russia. This has complicated the security calculus of the United States, [South Korea] and Japan, and other like-minded countries in the region,” he added.
Ties among North Korea, China and Russia are likely to grow tighter and harden into a regional bloc that will intensify its confrontations with the U.S. and its allies, which are aligning more closely into a bloc supporting Washington, according to experts.
“Those blocs have been there forever,” Gause said, adding, “They’re just beginning to harden now.”
Patrick Cronin, the Asia-Pacific security chair at Hudson Institute, said U.S. allies in Europe and Asia including Seoul, Tokyo, and Australia have also consolidated their “political will for deterrence” against threats from North Korea.
Pyongyang has thrown its support behind both Beijing and Moscow in confronting the U.S.
North Korea’s Foreign Ministry slammed the U.S. in February over its Indo-Pacific strategy, accusing Washington of “deliberately aggravating tensions” with China.
North Korea expressed support on October 4 for Russia’s annexation of four regions in Ukraine. Pyongyang is also reportedly making covert arms shipments to Russia, said John Kirby, the White House’s National Security Council coordinator for strategic communication on Tuesday.
Gause said North Korea is supporting China and Russia in exchange for their veto power, which could block any resolutions at the U.N. as they did in May after the U.S. introduced a resolution that would impose tougher sanctions in response to Pyongyang’s renewed ballistic missile tests including ICBMs.
When the U.N. Security Council met on October 5 after North Korea flew an IRBM over Japan, China and Russia defended North Korea’s action, saying Pyongyang had a right to defend itself.
In 2017, China and Russia both supported three resolutions condemning North Korea’s ICBM and nuclear tests.
Harry Kazianis, president of the Rogue States Project, said, “The world was frankly a very different place back in 2017.”
He continued, “China and the United States were both very concerned about a North Korean nuclear crisis that could spiral out of control, and Beijing was willing to go along with increased sanctions. … With China and Russia at odds with the U.S. [now], there is little hope of increasing sanctions” on Pyongyang.
US and South Korea
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has also aligned more closely with the U.S., unlike his predecessor, Moon Jae-in. While seeking dialogue earlier this year, Seoul and Washington have agreed to bolster deterrence against North Korea with renewed trilateral security cooperation involving Tokyo.
“In 2017, South Korea was led by a government that prioritized dialogue and reconciliation with Pyongyang and sought to downplay or even ignore the rising threats from North Korea,” Revere said. “The United States today is working much more in sync with [South Korea] and Japan than it did in 2017.”
eurasiareview.com · by VOA · November 4, 2022
6. 3 heroes swept in and saved 30 in Itaewon, then vanished
More reporting on the three who are living up to the highest standards of American military personnel.
I would expect these are some rather senior personnel most likely senior NCOs.
The rescued man later found out that the three rescuers were Jarmil Taylor, 40, Jerome Augusta, 34, and Dane Beathard, 32, after reading an interview of the three with the AFP.
...
According to the interview published by AFP, the three U.S. soldiers, who visited Itaewon on their week off, pulled body after body out of the crowd.
Thursday
November 3, 2022
dictionary + A - A
3 heroes swept in and saved 30 in Itaewon, then vanished
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/11/03/national/socialAffairs/korea-halloween-itaewon/20221103181248246.html?utm_source=pocket_mylist
Police and firefighters on Sunday look over the alleyway next to the Hamilton Hotel, the site of the crowd crush in Itaewon, central Seoul, that claimed the lives of over 150 people on Saturday. [NEWS1]
Three heroes who swept in and saved an estimated 30 people from the Itaewon crush, and then mysteriously vanished into the night, turned out to be American soldiers stationed in Korea.
A man in his 20s from Cheongju, North Chungcheong, told the local press that he was stuck in the alley next to the Hamilton Hotel, first caught between one person going up and another down and then buried under four people, when a hand reached down and pulled him out.
The Korean man had been trapped for about 15 minutes.
After the man was pulled out, the rescuer along with two others went to save about 30 more people, and vanished after the emergency responders were on the scene.
The rescued man later found out that the three rescuers were Jarmil Taylor, 40, Jerome Augusta, 34, and Dane Beathard, 32, after reading an interview of the three with the AFP.
"The situation described by the soldiers in the interview exactly overlaps with what I experienced," the rescued man said. "I am convinced that they are the ones."
According to the interview published by AFP, the three U.S. soldiers, who visited Itaewon on their week off, pulled body after body out of the crowd.
"We were picking a lot of people and taking them into the nearby clubs since they had finally opened them up. The club's floor was filed with people laid on the ground," Taylor told the AFP.
The Korean man thanked the soldiers for rescuing him from the deadly scene.
"I was stuck was at the center of the alley where the emergency responders arrived the latest," the rescued man said.
"Thanks to those who actively rescued people at the scene, we could avoid an even worse situation."
The Itaewon tragedy claimed at least 156 lives on Saturday night, including 26 foreigners, according to the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters, as of Thursday afternoon.
BY CHO JUNG-WOO [cho.jungwoo1@joongang.co.kr]
7. Nuclear Weapons Use Will ‘End’ Kim Regime, US, South Korea Say
The SECDEF is right. We are deterring an attack on the South. Kim likely knows the ROK/US combined military force is far superior to the nKPA. But we need to continue to make sure he gets this message as his sycophantic generals may only be telling him what they think he wants to hear about the power of the alliance. But we can assess that the great emphasis he places on trying to subvert the alliance indicates that he fears its power (though he still fears the Korean people in the north even more).
Excerpts:
The North Korean leader called the decision to extend Vigilant Storm a “terrible mistake.”
“What they're in effect doing is showing Kim Jong Un that his strategy is failing. However, ironically, his failed strategy is also what is making him more desperate,” David Maxwell, an Army veteran who was stationed in Japan and South Korea and is an analyst with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, told VOA.
South Korean and U.S. officials have for months warned that North Korea is in the final stages of preparations for what would be its seventh nuclear test since 2006, and its first since 2017. North Korea issued on Tuesday what was perceived as a veiled threat to use nuclear weapons.
Critics of U.S. policy on the peninsula have said the North’s nuclear provocations, coupled with the recent missile launches, could be signs that U.S. and South Korean military muscle might not stop Pyongyang from trying to attack Seoul.
Austin disagrees. “I believe that they are deterred" from attacking South Korea, he said Thursday, "and I also believe they are deterred from employing a nuclear device.”
Nuclear Weapons Use Will ‘End’ Kim Regime, US, South Korea Say
voanews.com
pentagon —
The United States and South Korean defense leaders are warning Pyongyang that any use of nuclear weapons by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un would be the “end” of his regime.
“[U.S. Defense] Secretary [Lloyd] Austin and I affirmed that any nuclear attack by the DPRK, including the use of tactical nuclear weapons, is unacceptable and will result in the end of the Kim Jong Un regime by the overwhelming and decisive response of the alliance,” South Korean Minister of National Defense Lee Jong-sup told reporters Thursday at the Pentagon.
In a show of solidarity, the two defense leaders also announced that they were extending the ongoing joint military exercise Vigilant Storm beyond Friday, when it was set to end.
“I’ve consulted with Minister Lee, and we’ve decided to extend Vigilant Storm, which is our long-scheduled combined training exercise, to further bolster our readiness and interoperability,” Austin said during the joint press conference.
About 240 aircraft have participated in the exercise, along with thousands of U.S. and South Korean troops.
Pentagon spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Martin Meiners told VOA the air exercise would be extended to Saturday.
"We remain in close coordination with our ROK ally on any additional changes and the security environment on the Korean Peninsula. Our commitment to the defense of the ROK is ironclad,” Meiners said, abbreviating South Korea’s official name, the Republic of Korea.
North Korea continued its unprecedented pace of missile launches Thursday, firing six missiles, including an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). It fired more than 20 missiles a day earlier.
A South Korean government source told CNN the ICBM launch Thursday failed. VOA has not been able to independently confirm the reporting.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin welcomes South Korean Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup to the Pentagon in Washington, Nov. 3, 2022.
The North Korean leader called the decision to extend Vigilant Storm a “terrible mistake.”
“What they're in effect doing is showing Kim Jong Un that his strategy is failing. However, ironically, his failed strategy is also what is making him more desperate,” David Maxwell, an Army veteran who was stationed in Japan and South Korea and is an analyst with the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, told VOA.
South Korean and U.S. officials have for months warned that North Korea is in the final stages of preparations for what would be its seventh nuclear test since 2006, and its first since 2017. North Korea issued on Tuesday what was perceived as a veiled threat to use nuclear weapons.
Critics of U.S. policy on the peninsula have said the North’s nuclear provocations, coupled with the recent missile launches, could be signs that U.S. and South Korean military muscle might not stop Pyongyang from trying to attack Seoul.
Austin disagrees. “I believe that they are deterred" from attacking South Korea, he said Thursday, "and I also believe they are deterred from employing a nuclear device.”
voanews.com
8. S. Korea, U.S. agree on four categories of 'extended deterrence' cooperation
I think this statement. is not completely accurate. I think they are explaining the process to the public to reassure them. But the press and pundits think this is something new. I would take exception to the statement that the ROK's role has been largely limited or absent. I can say with great certainty that no US strategic asset can be deployed to the peninsula without ROK government approval. The Military Committee is a cofide consultation process. We share all relevant information. Perhaps the joint planning and exertion process has atrophied because all elements of the ROK/US CFC are not colocated . Since the move to Camp Humphreys the command has been split between two locations in Seoul and Camp Humphreys and this has reduced consultation corraintion and information sharing at all levels. Most members of the ROK/US CFC have no experience with the combined command working side by side with their counterparts on a daily basis which is one of the reasons why CFC has been an effective bilateral command. CFC cannot be finally reunited at Camp Humphreys fast enough and return to completely combined operations 24/7/365 rather than just coming together for exercises.
In the joint SCM communique, the two sides spelled out the four linear categories -- information sharing, consultation process, joint planning and execution -- in a decision that would pave the way for Seoul's involvement in those areas, where its role has largely been limited or absent.
Friday
November 4, 2022
dictionary + A - A
S. Korea, U.S. agree on four categories of 'extended deterrence' cooperation
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/11/04/national/defense/korea-north-korea-south-korea/20221104104912011.html
Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup, left, and his U.S. counterpart, Lloyd Austin, attend an honor cordon ceremony prior to their talks at the Pentagon near Washington, D.C. on Nov. 3. [YONHAP]
South Korea and the United States agreed Thursday on specific categories of "extended deterrence" cooperation against North Korea's evolving nuclear and missile threats in a move to fortify the credibility of America's security commitment to its Asian ally.
Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup and his U.S. counterpart, Lloyd Austin, reached the agreement at their annual Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) at the Pentagon amid worries that Pyongyang is ready for a fresh nuclear test that will further compound security challenges facing the allies.
In the joint SCM communique, the two sides spelled out the four linear categories -- information sharing, consultation process, joint planning and execution -- in a decision that would pave the way for Seoul's involvement in those areas, where its role has largely been limited or absent.
In his opening remarks, Lee said that he and Austin agreed to reinforce the alliance's capabilities and posture in each category so as to "effectively deter ad respond to advancing North Korean nuclear and missile threats."
The SCM document sets the tone for the allies' defense collaboration amid calls in South Korea for Seoul to pursue a nuclear sharing arrangement akin to that of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or other measures to ensure the U.S. adheres to its extended deterrence pledge.
Extended deterrence means America's stated commitment to mobilizing a full range of its military capabilities, both nuclear and conventional, to defend its ally under attack.
Public angst over the North's nuclear threats has deepened as the recalcitrant regime has been pushing to develop tactical nuclear weapons and secure diverse, survivable launch platforms under an aggressive nuclear policy that leaves open the possibility of preemptive strikes.
Concerns also lingered that Pyongyang's push to develop long-range missiles capable of striking the U.S. mainland could make Washington dither on whether to come to the aid of South Korea should it be attacked.
Against this backdrop, Seoul has been pushing to have a say in the process of the U.S. planning and executing Washington's deterrence procedures, including the potential employment of nuclear arms.
Apparently mindful of security concerns in the South, Austin highlighted the U.S.' security commitment.
"At this time of heightened tensions, our alliance is ironclad," he said. "The U.S. remains fully committed to the defense of the ROK and our extended deterrence commitment is firm, which includes a full range of nuclear, conventional and missile defense capabilities.
ROK stands for South Korea's official name, the Republic of Korea."
Austin also said that "any nuclear attack against the U.S. or its allies and partners, including the use of non-strategic nuclear weapons, is unacceptable and will result in the end of the Kim Jong-un regime," according to the communique.
Touching on the deployment of U.S. strategic military assets, Lee said that Austin agreed on increasing the frequency and intensity of the deployment of such assets to and around the peninsula to create the effect similar to that of permanently stationing them in Korea.
The SCM document also includes the defense chiefs' agreement to work together to complete ongoing work to revise the allies' "tailored deterrence strategy (TDS)" ahead of next year's SCM.
Adopted in 2013, the allies' tailored deterrence strategy (TDS) is designed to cope with growing threats from the North's nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction.
In addition, Lee and Austin pledged to conduct annual table top exercises based on a North Korean nuclear use scenario.
Yonhap
9. US urges UNSC action to punish NK over recent provocations, China and Russia again refuse
Although China and Russia's recalcitrance makes this seem like a futile effort, we need to continue to press the UNSC and continue to get China and Russia on record for their complicity in supporting and protecting north Korea and its malign behavior. They need to be held accountable.
US urges UNSC action to punish NK over recent provocations, China and Russia again refuse
The Korea Times · November 5, 2022
U.S. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield speaks during an arria-formula meeting regarding the ongoing protests in Iran, at the United Nations headquarters in New York City on Nov. 2. AFP-Yonhap
The United States on Friday called on the U.N. Security Council (UNSC) to hold North Korea accountable for its recent provocative actions that included the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile.
U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield also stressed the importance of fully implementing the existing UNSC sanctions on the recalcitrant country.
"Over the last week and a half the DPRK has exacerbated an extremely worrisome trend that we've seen all year; an increasing number of (missile) launches in flagrant violation of the Security Council Resolution, destabilizing and threatening rhetoric and continue escalation," the U.S. diplomat said at an emergency meeting of the Security Council held in New York.
"The United States condemns, in the strongest possible terms, all 13 recent DPRK ballistic missile launches since October 27, but the DPRK's latest test of an intercontinental ballistic missile, the seventh ICBM this year, is particularly concerning," she added.
DPRK stands for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, North Korea's official name.
Friday's UNSC meeting marked the ninth of its kind held this year to specifically discuss possible measures to hold North Korea responsible or stop its continued provocations.
The previous eight meetings, however, ended in naught, primarily due to opposition from Russia and China, both veto power-wielding permanent members of the Security Council and close neighbors of North Korea.
Thomas-Greenfield argued Beijing and Moscow have made a mockery of the Security Council by bending over backward to justify Pyongyang's repeated violations of UNSC resolutions that they had helped to put in place.
"I want to remind this council of our responsibility to protect global peace and security, defend a global nonproliferation regime and uphold the Security Council resolutions," she said.
"You don't get to abandon the Security Council responsibilities because the DPRK might sell you weapons to fuel your war of aggression in Ukraine or because you think they make a good regional butter to the United States," added the U.S. ambassador.
The U.S. earlier released intelligence information that Pyongyang is trying to "covertly" send a significant number of artillery shells to Russia for use in Ukraine.
Thomas-Greenfield said the North has now launched 59 ballistic missiles in total this year.
"For a U.N. member state to so flagrantly violate the Security Council resolutions and all that the UN Charter stands for is appalling," she said, referring to North Korea's missile launches. "Equally appalling is the council's deafening silence on this issue."
China and Russia refused to budge, instead accusing the U.S. and South Korea of provoking North Korea's recent missile launches.
"The current events and root causes that have led to the current situation on the peninsula are clear to all. The DPRK's recent launches activities did not happen in isolation and they are directly linked to the words and deeds of relevant parties," China's envoy to the U.N. Zhang Jun said in the council meeting through an interpreter.
"The United States and relevant country, after a five year hiatus, have re-launched their large scale joint military exercises with hundreds of warplanes involved," the Chinese ambassador said, referring to joint military exercises of South Korea and the U.S.
Russia's envoy to the U.N. joined in accusing the U.S. of instigating North Korea's recent missile launches.
"We note with regret that recently the situation on the Korean Peninsula has significantly worsened," said Anna Evstigneeva, deputy permanent representative of Russia to the U.N.
"The reason for this is clear; the desire of Washington to force Pyongyang to unilaterally disarm by using sanctions and exerting pressure and force," she added, speaking through an interpreter. (Yonhap)
The Korea Times · November 5, 2022
10. EXPLAINER: How impoverished N. Korea finances testing spree
Again, if we want to really pressure north Korea we need to go after Chinese and Russian financial institutions that are complicit in supporting north Korea.
Excerpt:
While some experts say each North Korean launch could cost $2 million to $10 million, others say there is no way to estimate accurately given the North’s extremely secretive nature. They say North Korea likely manufactures weapons at a much cheaper cost than other countries because of free labor and possible clandestine Chinese and Russian support.
EXPLAINER: How impoverished N. Korea finances testing spree
AP · by HYUNG-JIN KIM and KIM TONG-HYUNG · November 4, 2022
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korea’s recent barrage of missile tests, including Wednesday’s record of at least 23 launches, is raising an important question about its weapons program: How does the impoverished country pay for the seemingly endless tests?
While some experts say each North Korean launch could cost $2 million to $10 million, others say there is no way to estimate accurately given the North’s extremely secretive nature. They say North Korea likely manufactures weapons at a much cheaper cost than other countries because of free labor and possible clandestine Chinese and Russian support.
North, South Korea fire off dueling missile-launch videos
Rival Koreas scramble warplanes in extension of tensions
G-7 ministers back Ukraine support, are suspicious of China
North Korea keeps up its missile barrage with launch of ICBM
Whichever is correct, there are no signs that North Korea’s economic hardships are slowing its weapons tests. Instead, its testing spree signals that leader Kim Jong Un is determined to show he has the ability to launch nuclear strikes on South Korea and the United States in order to wrest future concessions.
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Here is a look at the financial dimensions of North Korea’s missile tests.
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HOW MUCH DOES EACH TEST COST?
North Korea launched at least 23 missiles on Wednesday and six more on Thursday, adding to its already record-breaking pace of weapons tests this year. Many were nuclear-capable ballistic missiles designed to destroy South Korean and U.S. targets.
They likely include a developmental Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile, surface-to-air missiles and a variety of short-range ballistic missiles. North Korea has a reputation for frequent missile tests, but it has never launched that many missiles in a single day.
Soo Kim, a security analyst at the California-based RAND Corporation, said the cost of a North Korean missile test could range between several million dollars to $10 million, which would be lower than similar tests in other countries, partly because North Korean labor is cheap.
Bruce Bennet, another expert at the RAND Corporation, told Radio Free Asia that the short-range missiles Wednesday cost between $2 million to $3 million each and the total cost for the day was somewhere between $50 million and $75 million. RFA said the maximum estimate is about the amount of money that North Korea spent to import rice from China in 2019 to cover grain shortages that year.
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Lee Illwoo, an expert with the Korea Defense Network in South Korea, said it’s impossible for outsiders to accurately estimate weapons production costs in North Korea. “There are no ways for us to find at what cost North Korea produces certain weapons parts. They could have manufactured them by themselves, or China might have given them for free or at an extremely cheap price,” he said.
In a report to the office of South Korean lawmaker Shin Won-sik in September, the state-run Korea Institute for Defense Analyses in Seoul said North Korea was estimated to have spent up to $1.6 billion on its nuclear program since the 1970s. The report used analyses of nuclear development programs in other countries. Some observers cautioned against the use of foreign data because the North Korean government doesn’t have to pay for labor or land.
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HOW ARE THE LAUNCHES FUNDED?
North Korea’s economic difficulties have worsened because of COVID-19, but there have been no reports of substantial social unrest or food shortages.
Its weapons development is being driven by a Soviet-style party-military complex in which the party leadership surrounding Kim Jong Un exercises full control over defense industries and faces little budgetary constraint in concentrating national resources on arms development, said Hong Min, an analyst at Seoul’s Korea Institute for National Unification.
In addition to the record number of missile tests this year, there are also signs that North Korea is expanding its munition facilities in a possible attempt to mass-produce newly developed weapons, Hong said.
Soo Kim, the RAND Corporation analyst, said it is crucial to track how North Korea is financing its weapons programs despite U.S.-led economic sanctions and its own self-imposed isolation.
“This is where sanctions-violating activities, including (North Korea’s) recent foray into cybercrime and cryptocurrency hacking, comes into play,” she said. “And of course, having witting partners in Beijing and Moscow aid in sanctions violations also helps the regime’s weapons development prosper.”
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Hong said Russia’s war in Ukraine appears to have opened a new opportunity for North Korea amid U.S. accusations that the North is covertly shipping a “significant” number of artillery shells to Russia. Hong said in return North Korea may seek Russian technology transfers and supplies needed to expand its military capabilities.
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WHAT DOES NORTH KOREA GAIN?
Each of North Korea’s missile and nuclear tests gives its scientists “precious data” on weapons development and also helps cement Kim Jong Un’s leadership while rattling the South Korea-U.S. alliance, said Kim Taewoo, former head of Seoul’s Korea Institute for National Unification.
“Some people say we should let North Korea keep firing missiles toward the sea so that they would use up their resources. But I would say that is an extremely naive opinion,” he said.
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South Korean media reported that the Hwasong-17 launch on Thursday ended in failure because it didn’t follow a normal flight and crashed into the ocean after a stage separation. In an earlier test launch in March, the Hwasong-17 exploded soon after liftoff.
“The missile is under development. So it’s not the time to call its launch ‘a failure’ and laugh at it,” said Lee, the Korea Defense Network expert. “This time, the missile had a stage separation, and I think they’ve achieved quite a big technological progress.”
North Korea has argued its missile tests are meant as a warning against a series of U.S-South Korean joint military exercises that it views as an invasion rehearsal. Given that, North Korea’s testing activities are likely to continue since Washington and Seoul regularly conduct drills.
North Korea is estimated to have about 1,000 ballistic missiles, more than enough for it to continue its pressure campaign through the 2024 U.S. presidential election to try to win sanctions relief and other concessions, said Go Myong-hyun, an analyst at Seoul’s Asan Institute for Policy Studies.
“What North Korea wants to demonstrate before 2024 is that its nuclear weapons arsenal is very advanced, has been completed and represents a much more significant threat than before,” Go said. “It’s crucial for them to maintain that threat perception with the United States and they aren’t suddenly going to quiet down.”
AP · by HYUNG-JIN KIM and KIM TONG-HYUNG · November 4, 2022
11. North Korea’s Doctrinal Shifts Are More Dangerous Than Missile Launches
Trigger a war? Washington and Seoul? If there's a war it will be because Kim Jong Un made the deliberate decision to execute his war plan.
And there is more likely to be a war when the alliance is weak and not when it is strong as it is right now.
We need to understand the nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime.
The genie is out of the bottle. Does anyone think that reducing the emphasis on targeting Kim in wartime will have any positive effect on Kim? I disagree with the authors' assessment here and concur with Secretary Austin's and Minister Lee's recent comments on what will happen to the regime and Kim Jong Un if he attacks the South.
The new conservative government in Seoul should also rethink its very public enthusiasm for plans and capabilities to kill Kim should the need arise. While South Korea is unlikely to abandon these capabilities, it could at least de-emphasize direct threats to Kim’s life and focus instead on the development of proportionate responses to North Korean attacks.
North Korea’s Doctrinal Shifts Are More Dangerous Than Missile Launches
Foreign Policy · by James M. Acton, Ankit Panda · November 4, 2022
An expert's point of view on a current event.
Washington and Seoul need to be careful not to accidentally trigger war.
By James M. Acton and Ankit Panda, the Stanton senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.
North Korea set a new annual record for missile launches back in June, and it’s still going strong. This week, Pyongyang launched 23 missiles in a single day, setting a new daily record, and U.S. officials have indicated that it is ready to conduct a nuclear test at any time. Less noticed are developments in North Korean nuclear doctrine, which are even more consequential than the missile launches. Recent doctrinal changes increase the risk of inadvertent nuclear war and should prompt a rethink of current policies in both Seoul and Washington.
In September, North Korea updated a 2013 law setting out its nuclear weapons policies and announced that it would respond to attacks against its nuclear command and control systems by launching a nuclear strike “automatically and immediately.” While this threat may depend on the development of new capabilities, the prospect of North Korean nuclear forces being placed on what could amount to hair-trigger alert in a crisis is deeply worrying. Not only might this posture enable North Korea to launch its nuclear weapons before they were destroyed in a preemptive strike, but it could create the risk of Pyongyang’s initiating a nuclear war based on false warning or because it misperceived the purpose of U.S. or South Korean military operations.
The reasons behind North Korea’s new policy are clear enough. For a decade or so now, U.S. officials have spoken euphemistically about “left of launch” missile defeat, which in plain English means attacking an adversary’s nuclear forces before its missiles can fly. Plans to this end have been developed and, reportedly, even been used to interfere with North Korean missile testing. In a war, left-of-launch attacks against North Korea’s nuclear forces would likely involve strikes on its command and control systems, including communication capabilities; after all, if North Korean leader Kim Jong Un couldn’t transmit the order to use nuclear weapons, the United States would have more time to hunt and destroy the forces capable of carrying out a nuclear attack.
North Korea also worries about the survival of Kim, the decision-maker at the center of its nuclear command and control system and the very man whose survival the country’s nuclear forces are meant to ensure. North Korea has studied the U.S. way of war. It has noted, for instance, that the United States tried to kill Saddam Hussein in the opening days of the 2003 invasion of Iraq. And while this strike was unsuccessful, it appears to have made a significant impression on Pyongyang.
South Korea has also given North Korea ample cause for concern. For nearly a decade now, Seoul has been devising a strategy to kill Kim should he use nuclear weapons. South Korea has invested substantially in precision strike missiles and reconnaissance capabilities to be able to do this. While the plan was devised for retaliation, Seoul’s parallel pursuit of the capabilities to strike North Korea preemptively has likely given Kim the impression that he would be targeted in the early moments of a conflict.
U.S. and South Korean policies are understandable—and, in fact, proportionate and emotionally satisfying—responses to the real and growing threat posed by North Korea’s nuclear arsenal. The key question, however, is whether they will actually prove effective at curtailing that threat. There are good reasons to doubt this. There is a real danger that North Korea might use nuclear weapons due to a mistaken belief that the United States or South Korea had launched attacks intended to deprive Pyongyang of its ability to use them.
In a conventional war, the United States would likely try to degrade North Korea’s communication capabilities—including those that connect Kim to senior commanders in the Korean People’s Army—as a way of undermining the effectiveness of its conventional military forces. From a North Korean perspective, however, such attacks would be indistinguishable from those intended to sever the links between Kim and his nuclear forces—potentially prompting Kim to use those forces while he still could.
Another risk is that a U.S. or South Korean nonnuclear attack could strike a facility near Kim and thus appear to him as an assassination attempt. Even if Kim did not immediately respond with nuclear weapons, he might give North Korean military officers the authority to use nuclear weapons if a future attempt on his life was successful. In the event of a communications blackout—which could result from equipment failure or adverse weather conditions as well as U.S. or South Korean attacks—those officers might exercise that authority. (For this reason, the United States abandoned options to pre-delegate launch authority during the Cold War.)
At a time when North Korea shows little interest in engagement, both Seoul and Washington can and should take unilateral measures to mitigate the risk of inadvertently prompting nuclear escalation. This would not be altruism but rather in self-interest to reduce the risks of unnecessary inadvertent escalation.
Washington and Seoul are in the process of rewriting the alliance’s war plans and should adapt them to minimize escalation risks. For example, they should consider forsaking strikes against North Korean command and control capabilities (whether conducted to undermine Pyongyang’s nuclear or nonnuclear forces). Abandoning this practice might let North Korean conventional military operations be more effective than otherwise, but it could also significantly reduce the risk of a nuclear war.
The new conservative government in Seoul should also rethink its very public enthusiasm for plans and capabilities to kill Kim should the need arise. While South Korea is unlikely to abandon these capabilities, it could at least de-emphasize direct threats to Kim’s life and focus instead on the development of proportionate responses to North Korean attacks.
James M. Acton holds the Jessica T. Mathews chair and is the co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Ankit Panda is the Stanton senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington. He is the author of Kim Jong Un and the Bomb: Survival and Deterrence in North Korea. Twitter: @nktpnd
12. North Korea: What missiles does it have?
A useful graphic (from CSIS) at the link: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41174689?utm_source=pocket_mylist
North Korea: What missiles does it have?
BBC · by Menu
Image source, Reuters
Image caption,
A man in Seoul watching news of a North Korean missile launch
North Korea has been causing alarm in the Pacific region with a sharp rise in the number of missile tests, including one that flew over Japan.
It's thought North Korea's military may soon test another nuclear device.
What missiles has North Korea been testing?
North Korea has been testing a variety of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and hypersonic missiles.
Hypersonic missiles fly at several times the speed of sound and at low altitude, to escape radar detection.
The missile fired over Japan in October is thought to have been an intermediate-range Hwasong-12, which has a range of 4,500km - far enough to hit the US island of Guam from North Korea.
A more recent ballistic missile test is believed to have failed, and did not manage to pass over Japan.
"North Korea has been testing missiles with longer and longer ranges," says Joseph Byrne, research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute.
"It could be the precursor to it testing another nuclear warhead, which has been predicted for some time," he adds.
North Korea has also been testing the Hwasong-14 ballistic missile.
Image source, Getty Images
Image caption,
Missiles on display at a January 2021 military parade
This has a range of 8,000km - although some studies have suggested it could travel as far as 10,000km, making it capable of reaching New York.
It is the first of North Korea's intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).
The Hwasong-15 missile is believed to have a range of 13,000km, putting all of the continental US in its sights.
In October 2020, North Korea unveiled the latest of its ballistic missiles - the Hwasong-17. It is believed to have a range of 15,000km or more.
It could possibly carry three or four warheads, rather than only one - making it harder for a nation to defend itself.
The unveiling of the new missiles appeared to be a message to the Biden administration of the North's growing military prowess, say experts.
In March 2021, it carried out a launch of what it called a "new-type tactical guided projectile", which it said was able to carry a payload of 2.5 tons - so capable in theory of carrying a nuclear warhead.
Analysts at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies told Reuters that it appeared to be "an improved variant" of a previously tested missile, the KN-23.
What nuclear weapons does North Korea have?
The last time North Korea tested a nuclear bomb was in 2017. The explosion at its Punggye-ri test site had a force, or "yield", of between 100-370 kilotons.
A 100 kiloton bomb is six times more powerful than the one the US dropped on Hiroshima in 1945.
North Korea claimed this was its first thermonuclear device - the most powerful of all types of atomic weapon.
However, North Korea may now be aiming to test a smaller type of nuclear warhead with similar explosive force, according to Mr Byrne.
"It seems they are now testing a new capability - a miniaturised warhead that can be fitted onto a range of missiles, including short-range missiles" he says.
Where could nuclear tests take place?
Six underground tests have previously been carried out at Punggye-ri. However, in 2018 North Korea said it would shut the site down, because it had "verified" its nuclear capabilities.
Some of the tunnels into the site were subsequently blown up in the presence of foreign journalists. However, North Korea did not invite international experts to verify if it had been put beyond use.
Satellite images released in March this year suggest work to renovate Punggye-ri had started.
Any future nuclear testing at the site would breach resolutions from the United Nations Security Council.
Restarting North Korea's nuclear reactor
In 2018, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un made a promise to then-US president Donald Trump that North Korea would destroy all its nuclear material enrichment facilities.
However, the UN's atomic energy agency, the IAEA, says satellite images suggest that North Korea had restarted the reactor which makes its weapons-grade plutonium.
In September, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said there were signs that a nuclear test site was now open again.
He added: "We have observed indications of the operation of facilities and of construction work at the Yongbyon site, as well as activities at other locations."
The IAEA has not had physical access to North Korea's nuclear facilities since April 2009.
13. US Ups N.Korea Pressure But Fears No End To Headache
We need a Plan B: Built on foundation of military strength adopt a three part superior political warfare strategy: a human rights upfront approach, a massive influence campaign, and pursuit of a free and unified Korea.
We all must understand the only way we are going to see an end to the nuclear program, military threats, the human rights abuses and crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the north is through achievement of unification and the establishment of a free and unified Korea that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government based on freedom and individual liberty, rule of law, free market activities, and human rights as determined by the Korean people. Again, a free and unified Korea or in short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK).
US Ups N.Korea Pressure But Fears No End To Headache
Barron's · by Shaun TANDON
North Korea, whose leader Kim Jong Un met three times with Biden's predecessor Donald Trump but failed to reach a lasting accord, in recent days has fired a record number of missiles, and Western officials say Pyongyang has made preparations for a seventh nuclear weapons test.
"I don't think there is anything we can do to stop North Korea," said Sue Mi Terry, a former CIA analyst on Korean affairs who is now director of the Asia program at the Woodrow Wilson Center for International Scholars.
"If I were Kim Jong Un's advisor, I would say, yeah, go ahead," she said.
"They couldn't get any kind of deal with Trump and so what are they going to get from the Biden administration? They know this. The only thing they can do is get their program to the next level."
The United States has responded to North Korea by extending exercises with South Korea, including deploying a strategic bomber, and Biden will likely offer robust support for South Korean and Japanese leaders during summits this month in Southeast Asia.
Biden is also widely expected to meet President Xi Jinping of China, Pyongyang's primary ally, which joined Russia in May in vetoing a US-led bid at the Security Council to tighten sanctions on North Korea.
Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the US ambassador to the United Nations, told an emergency session Friday that China and Russia had "enabled" North Korea but also reiterated the Biden administration's willingness to talk to the totalitarian state.
US officials say North Korea has shown no interest in talks and, privately, some think the Kim regime may be in one of its periodic cycles of escalation and that there is no choice but to wait.
Under the last Democratic administration of Barack Obama, some concluded that the United States erred in timing by reaching an agreement in February 2012 that quickly collapsed as North Korea was already poised to go ahead with a satellite test.
For Biden, focused on Ukraine and possibly facing a more hostile Congress after midterm elections, diplomacy with North Korea offers high risks and limited chances of success.
Passengers at a ferry terminal on South Korea's eastern island of Ulleungdo watch television footage of a North Korean missile test
Anthony WALLACE
"They don't really have an appetite for engaging with North Korea. There's a lot of North Korea fatigue," said Frank Aum, a former Pentagon advisor on Korean affairs who is now at the US Institute of Peace.
But Aum said that diplomacy, even if chances for a breakthrough are limited, has succeeded at least in easing tensions.
He said Biden could offer concrete gestures and incentives, such as declaring a moratorium on deploying further strategic military assets or proposing sanctions relief.
"Any conciliatory tactic would be perceived domestically in the US as appeasement or a reward for bad behavior," Aum said.
"But empirical evidence clearly demonstrates that North Korea doesn't respond well to pressure and, conversely, when we engage with North Korea, they tend to behave better."
He doubted the efficacy of the Biden strategy of leaning in on China to exert pressure, noting that Beijing "absolutely disagrees with that approach."
The rising tensions have led, at least among experts, to a once taboo discussion on whether to accept North Korea as a nuclear state.
A picture released by North Korean state media on October 10, 2022 shows a missile test launch
STR
Arms control expert Jeffrey Lewis, in an opinion piece last month in The New York Times that generated wide debate, said the United States has already essentially accepted that North Korea will never get rid of its nuclear arsenal and should focus on discussing risk reduction.
"It's time to cut our losses, face reality and take steps to reduce the risk of war on the Korean Peninsula," he wrote.
The State Department reiterated its goal on North Korea was "complete denuclearization" and some experts said a shift would send the worrisome signal at a time when Russian President Vladimir Putin is threatening nuclear attack in Ukraine.
"It buys you nothing and it freaks out your allies," said Victor Cha, senior vice president for Asia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Cha, who advised former president George W. Bush, said the Biden team needed to lay out a North Korea policy that is beyond talking points.
"Maybe that would come after the seventh nuclear test," he said.
sct/mtp
Barron's · by Shaun TANDON
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Senior Advisor, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
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