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Quotes of the Day:
It is the duty of every man, as far as his ability extends, to detect and expose delusion and error.”
- Thomas Paine
"The mark of a great chiphanlder is never getting into situations that require great shiphandling."
- Fleet Admiral Ernest J. King
"Warriors are not what you think of as warriors. The warrior is not someone who fights, because no one has the right. to take another life. The warrior, for us, is one who sacrifices himself for the good of others. His task is to take care of the elderly, the defenseless, those who cannot provide for themselves, and above all, the children, the future of humanity. - Sitting Bull, (c. 1831-1890) Hunkpapa Sioux
1. Vigilant Storm ends with more North Korean missile launches
2. Internal unity is key (South Korea)
3. North Korea Could Soon Test a Nuclear Weapon: The Before and After
4. NK’s missile provocation deepens military rivalry on Korean Peninsula
5. U.S. able to respond quickly to N. Korean nuclear test: Pentagon
6. S. Korea participates in Japan's fleet review for 1st time in 7 years
7. Train crosses North Korea border into Russia after arms report, think tank says
8. Itaewon crush: South Korea demands justice for young as thousands protest
9. First Traffic Observed on North Korea-Russia Railway Link in Several Years
10. Russia, North Korea partners in sanctions-busting crime
11. After Ukraine, UNSC faces another acid test on Korea
1. Vigilant Storm ends with more North Korean missile launches
Graphic at the link. If you look at the graphic from north Korea's perspective it looks like they could have been trying to demonstrate deterrence by showing their offensive capabilities from both coasts. The propaganda and agitation department might want to use that graphic in their messages.
Sunday
November 6, 2022
dictionary + A - A
Vigilant Storm ends with more North Korean missile launches
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/11/06/national/defense/Korea-North-Korea-missile/20221106164513734.html
Two U.S. B-1B supersonic stealth bombers (upper right) are flanked by four U.S. F-16 fighters and four South Korea F-35A stealth fighters during the Vigilant Storm exercise on Saturday. [JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF]
North Korea maintained its barrage of missile launches with four more on Saturday morning as the United States flew two B-1B supersonic strategic bombers over the Korean Peninsula on the last day of a high-profile joint exercise with South Korea.
Seoul's Joint Chiefs of Staff said that it detected four short-range ballistic missiles being fired from 11:32 to 11:59 a.m. Saturday. The missiles all flew approximately 130 kilometers (81 miles), peaking at 20 kilometers and reaching a top speed of Mach 5.
Unusually, the launch site was not located in an area of the country's western or eastern coasts close to the North's traditional foes South Korea or Japan, but in Tongrim, North Pyongan Province, only 20 kilometers from the Chinese border city of Dandong.
The launches took place on the last day of a much-publicized joint South Korea-U.S. Air Force exercise dubbed Vigilant Storm that was originally scheduled to end on Friday but was extended by one day in response to the North's missile launches last week, which included a failed intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch.
The North's Korean People's Army (KPA) Marshal and Politburo Presidium member Pak Jong Chon warned the United States and South Korea that they had made "an irreversible, enormous mistake" by deciding to extend the exercise.
For the last day of the exercise, the United States mobilized two B-1B Lancer bombers that took off from Guam and flew over South Korea alongside four South Korean F-35A fighter jets and four American F-16 jets, according to the South Korean military.
Over 240 aircraft — including F-35A stealth fighters, F-15K jets and KF-16 jets from the South Korean Air Force, as well as F-35B stealth fighters, EA-18 electronic warfare aircraft, KC-135 tankers and U-2 high-altitude reconnaissance aircraft from the U.S. military — conducted a total 1,600 sorties during the six-day exercise.
The last time the United States flew B-1B bombers over South Korea was in 2017, when the North Korea conducted its sixth nuclear test and conducted its first ICBM tests.
South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said the presence of the B-1B bombers in the joint exercise showed the allies' ability to "sternly respond" to North Korean provocations and America's "ironclad" commitment to South Korea's defense.
North Korea is sensitive to such projections of U.S. military might close to its territory.
The regime has played up the threat from the B-1B bomber by describing it as a "nuclear strategic bomber" in state media reports, even though the plane has only been equipped with conventional weapons since the mid-1990s.
The B-1B bombers' deployment for the exercise came after defense chiefs from South Korea and the United States announced last Thursday that U.S. strategic assets will be continuously deployed to the Korean Peninsula while warning North Korean leader Kim Jong-un his regime would "end" if he used nuclear weapons against Seoul or Tokyo.
Speaking at a joint press conference at the Pentagon after the 54th security consultative meeting (SCM) between the allies, South Korean Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup said he and U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin promised to employ U.S. strategic assets to a level "equivalent to constant deployment" by "increasing the frequency and intensity of strategic asset deployment in and around the Korean Peninsula."
Austin said that although the shift would not result in the permanent relocation of more U.S. troops or assets, such as an aircraft carrier, to the region, it would entail a greater and more formidable U.S. military presence on rotation to the peninsula and the surrounding waters.
The U.S. defense secretary also warned in a joint communique issued after the SCM that "any nuclear attack against the United States or its allies and partners, including the use of non-strategic nuclear weapons, is unacceptable and will result in the end of the Kim regime."
In the joint communique, the allies said they would heighten information-sharing, consultations and "joint planning and execution" to deter North Korea's use of nuclear weapons.
While the communique did not go into detail on what "joint planning and execution" would entail, the phrase did suggest a more active role for Seoul in how U.S. deterrence capabilities might be put to use.
Calls have been growing in South Korea for Seoul to seek a nuclear-sharing arrangement like that of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) or other measures to make up for the lack of its own independent nuclear deterrent.
BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]
2. Internal unity is key (South Korea)
Key points:
The goal of the North is to get international recognition as a nuclear power, take the South as hostage and start nuclear reduction talks with America. North Korea is waiting for the appropriate time to push the button for its seventh nuclear test. A UN Security Council meeting on Friday failed to issue a joint statement denouncing North Korea for its ballistic missile launches due to opposition from Russia and China.
Such alarming developments demand a concerted voice from South Korea. Fortunately, the National Defense Committee in the legislature passed a resolution Friday to denounce North Korea’s missile provocations and urge it to stop them. The resolution defined its recent provocations as a clear violation of the Sept. 19, 2018 Military Agreements and several UN resolutions. It warned North Korea not to continue missile provocations. Nevertheless, we still have lawmakers calling for the suspension of joint South-U.S. military drills. Such frivolous thinking must stop.
Sunday
November 6, 2022
dictionary + A - A
Internal unity is key
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/11/06/opinion/editorials/internal-unity-North-Korea-South-Korea/20221106193826466.html
North Korea continued crossing the line last week. Even on Saturday, when the long-range U.S. strategic bomber B-1B Lancer was deployed to the Korean Peninsula, the North fired four ballistic missiles into the Yellow Sea. Three days earlier, it fired 25 missiles in a single day. One of them fell in international waters 57 kilometers (35 miles) to the northeast of Sokcho on the east coast. That was its first provocation beyond the Northern Limit Line (NLL) on the East Sea.
That’s not all. On Thursday, North Korea test-fired an ICBM, presumed to be a Hwasong-17, into the East Sea followed by a massive flight of military aircraft the next day. The 35 missiles the North fired for four days in reaction to a South Korea-U.S. joint air force drill dubbed “Vigilant Storm” shows the gravity of the situation.
Under such volatile circumstances, defense ministers of South Korea and the U.S. held a Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) in Washington on Thursday and agreed to deploy U.S. strategic assets to the peninsula in a timely and coordinated way when needed. That’s a declaration by Uncle Sam that he will deploy strategic weapons to the peninsula on a regular basis to counter the mounting nuclear and missile threat from North Korea.
The two allies also agreed to establish the Counter-Missile Working Group (CMWG) and carry out military exercises annually for the operation of extended deterrence. In a joint statement, the two allies pronounced that if North Korea uses nuclear weapons, including tactical nukes, the Kim Jong-un regime will disappear from the map. That’s a stern warning to the North not to make any misjudgment.
The security situation on the Korean Peninsula has become more complicated than in 2019 at the climax of tensions between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un due to China and Russia blindly siding with North Korea. That demands close security cooperation among South Korea, the U.S. and Japan. On Sunday, the government sent a warship to an international naval review aimed at celebrating the 70th year of the founding of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force. We appreciate the step by the Yoon Suk-yeol administration to protect the security and future of South Korea.
The goal of the North is to get international recognition as a nuclear power, take the South as hostage and start nuclear reduction talks with America. North Korea is waiting for the appropriate time to push the button for its seventh nuclear test. A UN Security Council meeting on Friday failed to issue a joint statement denouncing North Korea for its ballistic missile launches due to opposition from Russia and China.
Such alarming developments demand a concerted voice from South Korea. Fortunately, the National Defense Committee in the legislature passed a resolution Friday to denounce North Korea’s missile provocations and urge it to stop them. The resolution defined its recent provocations as a clear violation of the Sept. 19, 2018 Military Agreements and several UN resolutions. It warned North Korea not to continue missile provocations. Nevertheless, we still have lawmakers calling for the suspension of joint South-U.S. military drills. Such frivolous thinking must stop.
3. North Korea Could Soon Test a Nuclear Weapon: The Before and After
I mean no disrespect for Professor Kelly but this is "old think" that he correctly points out is escalatory and dangerous. But he makes an interesting point about China and Russia.
All of these options are terrible. All represent a major escalation. But North Korea’s adamant refusal to slow down will increasingly prompt debate of more hawkish tactics. And a seventh nuclear test – particularly one with a massive yield from a thermonuclear bomb – will increase the paranoia even further. North Korea – and its sanctions-unenforcing, passive enablers China and Russia – have no one but themselves to blame.
What about a human rights upfront approach, a massive influence campaign and the pursuit of a free and unified Korea?
North Korea Could Soon Test a Nuclear Weapon: The Before and After
19fortyfive.com · by Robert Kelly · November 5, 2022
U.S. and South Korean intelligence have hinted for a while this year that North Korea would test a nuclear weapon. Speculation is rising in the wake of the North’s many recent missile tests. North Korea has conducted six nuclear tests to date. It has not tested a warhead since 2017. At that point, North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong Un halted testing to facilitate diplomacy with U.S. President Donald Trump and South Korean President Moon Jae-In.
Those negotiations failed, in part because Kim never offered serious concessions to Trump. North Korea simply does not want to negotiate its nuclear weapons away. The U.S. wants to negotiate but wants the negotiations to include nukes. The North is unwilling and seems to be trying, instead, to coerce the U.S., South Korea, and Japan into accepting it as a nuclear weapons state by testing relentlessly.
The logical next step after all the missile tests and other provocations this year would be a nuclear test. That would be a cap to all these incitements; indeed, their purpose may be to soften the ground for what indeed will be a profoundly disruptive seventh nuclear test.
What to Look for in Another Test Nuclear Test
North Korea’s nuclear arsenal is now fairly established and functional. That is, the outside analyst community is now reasonably confident that North Korea can field basic atomic bombs which will work and whose missile delivery vehicles can survive re-entry. North Korea can strike cities in northeast Asia and, probably, the continental United States. It has crossed the most important technological barriers. It probably has somewhere between thirty and fifty warheads and hundreds of missiles.
Based on the geological disturbances caused by its previous nuclear tests, the North can likely field an atomic bomb ten times more potent than that dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. It is also likely that North Korea is still limited to fission atomic bombs, not fusion or thermonuclear warheads. This basic nuclear technology limits the yield – the amount of energy released by the chain reaction – of a North Korean warhead.
Hence, the most critical question for another North Korean nuclear test is if Pyongyang can make the step up to a fusion weapon. If so, this would dramatically raise the destructive potential of a North Korean nuclear strike on a city. Multiple weapons of this sort used against South Korean or Japanese cities would likely bring a breakdown of social order and even a collapse of the state itself. The pressure for more radical, risky responses to North Korean nukes would rise.
North Korea Nuclear Test: What Do We do?
As in the past, our options in response to a North Korean nuclear test are limited.
We have been unable to deter the previous six tests. We probably cannot stop a seventh if the regime is determined to do it. It is unclear whether any action short of a military strike could prevent this. That, of course, would be hugely risky for exposed South Korean, Japanese, and U.S. cities. The U.S. has not threatened serious force to prevent proliferation since the Cuban Missile Crisis. We are unlikely to do so here. We will learn to live, however grudgingly, with North Korea’s nukes.
North Korean Hwasong-16 ICBM. Image Credit: KCNA/North Korean State Media.
But we will respond, and the response proposals will become more radical as the problem worsens. The more North Korea builds nuclear weapons and missiles, the more relentlessly and recklessly it develops hugely destructive weapons, and the more it incentivizes South Korea and Japan particularly to consider previously unthinkable options. Ideally, we would negotiate a deal with the North which caps its program and includes some verification and inspection. But that is so unlikely that military options will increasingly be discussed.
On a scale of growing peril, I see a fusion test unlocking the following increasingly risky options, mainly if most tests follow, as they likely will:
– A major missile defense build-up: Missile defense, unfortunately, does not work well, and North Korea is aware of its capabilities. But this is better than nothing. South Korean and Japanese cities are naked against a missile strike, and North Korean fusion weapons will reinforce that vulnerability.
– South Korean and/or Japanese nuclearization: This is a live debate now in South Korea. The US opposes it, but 70% of South Koreans support it, and a seventh nuclear test, especially of a fusion weapon, will push that percentage up even higher.
North Korea Ballistic Missile Test. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
– Quarantining North Korean ports: This is a much more aggressive action than the defensive two above. This was U.S. strategy during the Cuban Missile Crisis, an alternative to invading Cuba. If North Korea flatly refuses to stop building hugely destructive weapons, blocking the inflow of parts and material is likely to arise as an option. Sanctions on the North Korean economy are already intended to blow this inflow but are not enforced well by China or Russia.
– Airstrikes on North Korean missile sites in a crisis: South Korea’s current president proposed this as a candidate earlier this year. This is hugely risky. It could ignite the very war it seeks to prevent. But it is a sign of the desperation to which South Korea is being driven.
All of these options are terrible. All represent a major escalation. But North Korea’s adamant refusal to slow down will increasingly prompt debate of more hawkish tactics. And a seventh nuclear test – particularly one with a massive yield from a thermonuclear bomb – will increase the paranoia even further. North Korea – and its sanctions-unenforcing, passive enablers China and Russia – have no one but themselves to blame.
Expert Biography: Dr. Robert E. Kelly (@Robert_E_Kelly; RoberEdwinKelly.com) is a professor of international relations in the Department of Political Science at Pusan National University and 19FortyFive Contributing Editor.
19fortyfive.com · by Robert Kelly · November 5, 2022
4. NK’s missile provocation deepens military rivalry on Korean Peninsula
The Korean peninsula, seemingly small geographically, is connected to all the great powers, and the revisionist and revolutionary and rogue powers. What happens on the Korean peninsula will have global effects.
NK’s missile provocation deepens military rivalry on Korean Peninsula
koreaherald.com · by Jo He-rim · November 6, 2022
North Korea’s ramped up missile provocations last week highlight the deepening divide between the West and Pyongyang's allies China and Russia, building more tension on the Korean Peninsula.
North Korea launched an unprecedented number of missiles last week, prompting the United Nations Security Council to hold an emergency council session on Friday to discuss ways to handle the multiple sanctions violations by Pyongyang.
The meeting, however, failed to draw a unified voice to hold North Korea liable for its violations, as China and Russia -- its close allies and permanent UNSC members -- justified the North's military provocations as self-defense measures.
US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield strongly condemned North Korea for launching a “staggering” 59 missiles this year, and criticized the UNSC for its “lack of action.”
“For a UN member state to so flagrantly violate the Security Council resolutions, and all that the UN Charter stands for, is appalling,” Thomas-Greenfield said, referring to North Korea.
“Equally appalling is the Council’s deafening silence on this issue.”
The US ambassador said North Korea “has enjoyed blanket protection” from two UNSC member countries, pointing at Russia and China without naming them directly.
“These members have bent over backwards to justify the DPRK’s repeated violations,” she said, referring to North Korea by its official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. “And, in turn, they have enabled the DPRK and made a mockery of this Council.”
“You don’t get to abandon Security Council responsibilities because the DPRK might sell you weapons to fuel your war of aggression in Ukraine, or because you think they make a good regional buffer to the United States,” she said.
The US White House had said earlier that Russia is “covertly” being supplied with a “significant” number of artillery shells from North Korea for its war in Ukraine.
China's UN Ambassador Zhang Jun said Pyongyang's missile launches are directly linked to the US-South Korean military exercises that resumed after a five-year break. He also said the US Defense Department virtually announcing the main goal of its strategy is to end the North Korean regime in the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review also provoked North's military actions.
"The council should play a constructive role rather than always stressing pressure," Zhang said. "Under the current circumstances, the council should in particular strive to mitigate confrontation, ease tensions, and promote the political settlement."
Russia's Deputy UN Ambassador Anna Evstigneeva also blamed Washington for exerting pressure and adding more sanctions to force Pyongyang to unilaterally disarm.
Since Wednesday, North Korea has launched 30 ballistic missiles, including an intercontinental ballistic missile that failed mid-flight. The barrage also included one ballistic missile crossing over the de facto maritime military border with South Korea for the first time since the two Koreas separated at the end of the 1950-53 Korean War.
North Korea has said its missile launches are part of its self-defense measures against the US and South Korea that were conducting a joint aerial exercise “Vigilant Storm,” for five days from Monday.
Seoul's Defense Ministry extended the military exercise by one more day to Saturday, as Pyongyang test-fired two dozen of sanctions-breaching missiles from Wednesday.
Seoul and Washington carried out their largest-ever Vigilant Storm exercises this year, including 100 US and 140 South Korean aircraft for roughly 1,600 sorties.
koreaherald.com · by Jo He-rim · November 6, 2022
5. U.S. able to respond quickly to N. Korean nuclear test: Pentagon
Do we want to execute a quick direct response or an indirect, asymmetric response that may be effective over time? An emotional response or a logical practical response? Can we create an opportunity from the 7th nuclear test? How can we exploit it to our advantage rather than appearing to be in fear of the test or look at the test as our failure? (which of course provides a propaganda win for the regime - what if we simply say "so what?" - but I know that is not a political acceptable response - but if ewe had a comprehensive influence campaign perhaps it could be. useful response for the long term).
(LEAD) U.S. able to respond quickly to N. Korean nuclear test: Pentagon | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · November 5, 2022
(ATTN: UPDATES with remarks from a NSC spokesperson, additional information in last 5 paras)
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, Nov. 4 (Yonhap) -- The United States will respond quickly to a future nuclear test by North Korea if necessary, a Pentagon spokesperson said Friday.
Sabrina Singh, deputy spokesperson for the defense department, made the remark as she highlighted the possibility of a North Korean nuclear test in the near future.
"We are in very close touch with our allies and partners in the region, and should there be such a test, we would be able to respond quickly if needed," Singh said when asked about the possibility of a North Korean nuclear test.
Seoul and Washington earlier said the North may have completed all preparations for what will be its seventh nuclear test.
"So we remain concerned about the prospects of any nuclear test. We know that the North Koreans have made preparations for such a test," the Pentagon spokesperson said in a daily press briefing.
"And this assessment, you know, remains consistent with what we have said from the beginning, but we certainly would remain concerned and which is why and you heard the secretary and his ROK counterparts speak to this yesterday," she added, referring to South Korea by its official name, the Republic of Korea.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin noted in his meeting with South Korean Defense Minister Lee Jong-sup on Thursday that any nuclear attack by Pyongyang against the U.S. or its allies will result in the "end" of the North Korean regime.
Austin also agreed to employ U.S. strategic assets in and around the Korean Peninsula to a level "equivalent to the constant deployment" of such assets to help deter or counter North Korean provocations.
Singh declined to comment when asked how the U.S. planned to boost the presence of its strategic assets in the region, but highlighted the importance of joint military drills.
"I don't have anything to announce today on any new deployment of strategic assets, but I think Vigilant Storm, the exercise that's ongoing now, speaks for itself," she said, referring to the joint military exercise of South Korea and the U.S.
"These exercises increase confidence in our joint operations, and again this is not the last exercise. We will continue to do exercises with South Korea or Japan when opportunities present itself," she added.
John Kirby, spokesman for the White House National Security Council, also underscored the importance of defense readiness and capabilities amid heightened tension on the Korean Peninsula following a series of North Korean provocations.
"Obviously, we remain deeply concerned about the provocations that the Pyongyang regime continues to demonstrate here and it seems like almost on a daily basis. It's all leading to just more insecurity and instability on the peninsula and in the region," he said in a virtual press briefing.
Pyongyang has fired more than 50 ballistic missiles this year, including more than a dozen since late September.
Kirby reiterated that the U.S. remains committed to engaging with North Korea, but said the Kim Jong-un regime continues to remain unresponsive.
"We'd love to be able to solve this issue diplomatically, but short of that and since we have no signs that the Kim regime is interested in that, we've got to make sure we've got the appropriate military capabilities ready to go if needed," he said.
bdk@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · November 5, 2022
6. S. Korea participates in Japan's fleet review for 1st time in 7 years
South Korea maintaining the moral high ground and placing national security above historical issues?
(LEAD) S. Korea participates in Japan's fleet review for 1st time in 7 years | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 장재순 · November 6, 2022
(ATTN: UPDATES with review taking place)
TOKYO, Nov. 6 (Yonhap) -- A South Korean naval vessel took part in Japan's international fleet review on Sunday for the first time in seven years amid escalating nuclear and missile threats from North Korea.
South Korea was one of 12 countries, including the United States, Canada and Australia, to take part in the review that took place in Sagami Bay off Kanagawa Prefecture, about 40 kilometers southeast of Tokyo.
Sailors aboard South Korea's 10,000-ton logistics support ship Soyang saluted toward Japan's helicopter carrier Izumo carrying Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, as sailors from other participating countries do while passing the carrier.
The Japanese vessel was flying the flag of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF). The flag looks similar to the Rising Sun Flag viewed by many Koreans as a symbol of Japan's imperialist past.
It marked the first time since 2015 for the South's Navy to participate in Japan's fleet review.
The Navy took part in Japan's fleet review in 2002 and 2015, while the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force joined the South's fleet review in 1998 and 2008.
Since 2018, when tensions between Seoul and Tokyo rose over historical and other disputes, the two sides have not participated in each other's fleet reviews.
Following the review, the Navy ship Soyang plans to join a multinational search and rescue exercise. The exercise will bring together service members from the United States, Britain, France, Australia, Canada and other countries.
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 장재순 · November 6, 2022
7. Train crosses North Korea border into Russia after arms report, think tank says
Resumption of trade or the first expert shipment of artillery ammunition for Russian use in Ukraine?
Train crosses North Korea border into Russia after arms report, think tank says
Reuters · by Reuters
WASHINGTON, Nov 4 (Reuters) - A train crossed from North Korea into Russia on Friday, two days after the United States said it had information indicating Pyongyang is covertly supplying Russia with artillery shells for its war in Ukraine, a Washington think tank said, citing commercial satellite imagery.
The 38 North project, which monitors North Korean developments, said it was the first time such a train movement had been observed on the route in several years, although Russia's veterinary service reported on Wednesday that a train had crossed the border into North Korea carrying horses.
"It is impossible to determine the purpose of the train from the imagery, but the crossing comes amid reports of arms sales from North Korea to Russia and a general expectation of the resumption of trade between the two countries," 38 North said.
It said North Korea closed the 800-meter (yard) Tumangang Friendship Bridge (Korea-Russia Friendship Bridge), the only land link between the countries, in February 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The report said that at 10:24 a.m. local time (0124 GMT) a three-car set of enclosed railcars was visible on the Korean side of the border, and by 1:10 p.m. local time (0410 GMT) it appeared to be in Russia behind a locomotive, about 200 meters (yards) from the end of the railway bridge.
At 2:29 p.m. (0529 GMT) the locomotive and three railcars were visible on tracks at Russia's Khasan Station, approximately 2 km (1.2 miles) from the border, and three smaller covered railcars, or possible containers on flatcars, were parked alongside the newly arrived train on an adjacent track.
"Whether a transfer of material was in progress could not be determined, and the parked locations of these train sets may have been unrelated," the report said.
The White House said on Wednesday that Washington had information indicating North Korea was covertly supplying Russia with a "significant" number of artillery shells for its war in Ukraine and was attempting to obscure the shipments by funneling them through countries in the Middle East and North Africa.
North Korea said in September it had never supplied weapons or ammunition to Russia and has no plans to do so. read more
According to a statement from Russia's state veterinary service on Wednesday, Russia and North Korea restarted train travel for the first time since the pandemic with a cargo of 30 grey thoroughbred "Orlov Trotter" horses into North Korea.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is known as a keen horseman. He was shown in 2019 by North Korean media trekking through mountain snows astride a white stallion. Russian customs data shows North Korea has spent thousands of dollars on thoroughbred horses from Russia in previous years.
Reporting by David Brunnstrom; Editing by Daniel Wallis
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Reuters · by Reuters
8. Itaewon crush: South Korea demands justice for young as thousands protest
This will have long term political as well as emotional effects.
Itaewon crush: South Korea demands justice for young as thousands protest
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Candlelight vigils were held across Seoul to commemorate the 156 people killed in the Itaewon crowd crush
By Tessa Wong and Youmi Kim
BBC News, Seoul
Clutching white candles and black signs, the solemn-faced mourners gathered across Seoul to grieve the young victims of the Itaewon crush - and deliver a stinging rebuke to the government.
As public anger continues to build over the biggest tragedy in South Korea in nearly a decade, thousands turned up for several vigils and protests held across the capital.
On 29 October, a deadly crowd crush killed 156 people - mostly young people - and injured another 196 during Halloween festivities in the nightlife district of Itaewon.
One week on, the authorities have launched an investigation, raiding municipal offices and local police and fire stations.
The national police chief has apologised, as has President Yoon Suk-yeol, who has vowed to improve crowd control measures in the future.
But it has not been enough to slake the public thirst for justice. Many feel a deep sense of shame that authorities have failed to protect its young - an irony for a country known for its youthful, K-pop driven image on the international stage.
Image source, Getty Images
Image caption,
Thousands of people took to the streets for vigil-protests near Seoul City Hall Plaza
On Saturday, activist and political groups rode on that wave of anger with at least seven vigil-protests across the capital.
The biggest one was organised by Candlelight Action, an alliance of progressive groups, which had been holding regular political protests against President Yoon even before the Itaewon tragedy.
It was held near City Hall which saw two lanes of a major road blocked off to accommodate tens of thousands of protesters. Many carried black protest signs that said "Stepping down is an expression of condolence" - a pointed message for President Yoon.
Onstage, speakers took turns to rail against the government in speeches interspersed with mournful song performances and prayers recited by Buddhist monks.
"Although the government clearly has responsibility, it is looking for perpetrators from irrelevant organisations… the incident occurred because the government did not play its very basic role," said one speaker.
"Step down, Yoon Suk-yeol's government! Step down, Yoon Suk-yeol's government!" the crowd chanted, waving their candles and placards.
Image caption,
Protesters near the site of the crush in Itaewon held banners that read: "At 6:34 the country was not there [for the victims]"
Earlier in the day at Itaewon, a crowd of 200 protesters from various youth political groups gathered near the site of the incident.
Clad in black clothing and face masks, they held aloft banners that read: "At 6:34 the country was not there [for the victims]".
This was a reference to the time of the first emergency call made to the police, hours before the crush actually happened. In total 11 calls were made that night.
After observing a minute of silence while facing the alley, their heads bowed, the group silently marched down the busy main thoroughfare of Itaewon.
They held white chrysanthemums - the flower of grief in Korean culture - and black placards reading: "We could have saved the victims, and the government should recognise their responsibility."
"I felt sad at first. But now I'm angry. I'm here because this incident could have been prevented. Those people were close to my age," said 22-year-old university student Kang Hee-joo.
At their final stop, a war memorial, youth activists took turns to deliver speeches.
"This society is not normal, we are not safe. The government is not fulfilling its responsibility, it has pushed it to the youth… what kind of lesson did we learn from the Sewol incident?" said one speaker, referencing the 2014 ferry disaster that killed more than 300 people, mostly high school students.
"They always promise change with every election. But why is there always a social disaster? This is what the young people are questioning," said another.
Image source, Getty Images
Image caption,
Two lanes of a major road were blocked off to accommodate tens of thousands of protesters in Seoul
Back at City Hall, a sea of candles flickered as night fell, bathing the masked faces of the protesters in a warm light. Many of them were middle-aged or older people.
Yeom Sung-won, who has two young adult children, could still vividly recall the Sewol incident.
"That was very sad. And it's unbelievable this is happening again. That's why I've come here," said the 59-year-old architect as his eyes welled up with tears. "I'm heartbroken, it's so senseless."
"The government has ignored them. It should protect its citizens and secure their safety no matter what."
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9. First Traffic Observed on North Korea-Russia Railway Link in Several Years
Imagery at the link: https://www.38north.org/2022/11/first-traffic-observed-on-north-korea-russia-railway-link-in-several-years/
First Traffic Observed on North Korea-Russia Railway Link in Several Years
A train crossed from North Korea into Russia on Friday afternoon, according to commercial satellite imagery. This is the first traffic observed on the route in several years. It is impossible to determine the purpose of the train from the imagery, but the crossing comes amid reports of arms sales from North Korea to Russia and a general expectation of the resumption of trade between the two countries.
The Only DPRK-Russia Land Connection
The 800-meter Tumangang Friendship Bridge (Korea-Russia Friendship Bridge) is the only land link between the two countries, and before the COVID-19 pandemic, it served a limited amount of rail traffic between Russia and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). North Korea closed the link in February 2020 as it shut its borders due to the pandemic.
In the second half of 2021, a freight-handling area just inside North Korea was rebuilt and expanded, although it has seen no apparent use to date. This portion of the rail yard consists of a new set of platforms and storage buildings, separately secured from the rest of the rail yard by a series of watch posts.
Figure 1. Overview of the Tumangang Friendship Bridge area on November 4, 2022.
Image © 2022 Planet Labs, PBC cc-by-nc-sa 4.0. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Railcar Crossing
On Friday morning at 10:24 a.m. local time (0124 UTC), a three-car set of enclosed railcars was visible on one of the tracks alongside the freight handling area. The easternmost railcar is light blue, the second appears to be darker blue and the rear car is a reddish-brown color.
Figure 2. Close up of railcars alongside the freight handling area on November 4, 2022.
Image © 2022 Planet Labs, PBC cc-by-nc-sa 4.0. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
By 1:10 p.m. local time (0410 UTC), what appears to be the same three-car set of railcars was observed behind a locomotive inside Russia, about 200 meters from the end of the railway bridge. The train is close to the Korea-Russia Friendship House border crossing station.
Figure 3. Close up of railcars and locomotive on the Russian side of the border on November 4, 2022.
Image © 2022 Planet Labs, PBC cc-by-nc-sa 4.0. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
At 2:29 p.m. local time (0529 UTC), the locomotive and three railcars were visible on tracks at Khasan Station, approximately two kilometers from the border. On an adjacent track, three smaller covered railcars, or possible containers on flatcars, were parked alongside the newly arrived train. Whether a transfer of material was in progress could not be determined, and the parked locations of these train sets may have been unrelated.
The smaller railcars have been in position since at least the first image of the day was captured at 10:24 a.m. local time.
Figure 4. Close up of railcars, locomotive and smaller covered railcars at Khasan Station on the Russian side of the border on November 4, 2022.
Image © 2022 Planet Labs, PBC cc-by-nc-sa 4.0. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Conclusion
The purpose of the train and what it might be transporting cannot be determined from the images. On Wednesday, White House National Security spokesperson John Kirby said that the US believes North Korea is sending shipments through the Middle East and North Africa in an attempt to disguise them.
While this is the first train observed on satellite imagery traveling between the DPRK and Russia, it does not mean it is the only train that has crossed in recent months. For instance, a train did apparently make the same journey earlier this week. The Russian Customs Agency reported that 30 horses were transported by rail from Russia to North Korea, but that shipment was not captured by satellites.
The resumption of cross-border traffic comes after the two countries agreed in September to restart rail traffic after nearly three years.
10. Russia, North Korea partners in sanctions-busting crime
Could Moscow ever be trusted?
Russia, North Korea partners in sanctions-busting crime
Moscow can no longer be trusted to enforce punitive economic measures against North Korea in any meaningful sense
asiatimes.com · by Anthony V Rinna · November 5, 2022
The dissonance between the two conflict-ridden ends of Russia’s periphery continues to shrink as the situation in Ukraine exerts an increasing influence on the security situation on the Korean Peninsula.
The development of North Korea-Russia relations since the beginning of Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine suggests multilateralism aimed at curbing the security threat posed by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) will come under increasing strain.
The strengthening of DPRK-Russia ties since the beginning of 2022 indicates that Russia may be shifting away from asserting compliance with the UN-based international sanctions regime against Pyongyang. Russia now seems in favor of explicitly violating UN sanctions as a matter of public policy.
The DPRK-Russia relationship had in recent years been amicable if somewhat distant before it ground to a halt due to North Korea’s stringent border closure in 2020. But Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has brought an outpouring of support from Pyongyang for everything from the invasion itself to the annexation of Ukrainian territory.
While UN member states overwhelmingly condemned Russia’s actions, North Korea has supported them. The Kremlin has since shown an increased willingness to violate UN sanctions against the DPRK.
Since North Korea and Russia vowed to strengthen ties in August 2022, members of the Russian government’s executive and legislative branches have engaged in open discussions over hiring large numbers of North Koreans to work in Russia. That would be a clear violation of UN Security Council Resolution 2270.
The degree to which policymakers in Moscow have begun engaging openly in these conversations is notable. Well into its invasion of Ukraine, the Russian government was still asserting that it abides by UN resolutions regarding sanctions against North Korea.
Prior to the annexation of additional Ukrainian land in September 2022, the Russian government argued that North Korean workers had the right to take employment in Donetsk and Luhansk due to those areas being, in Moscow’s view, independent, non-UN member states.
A man walks past a residential building damaged by shelling in Severodonetsk, northwest of Luhansk, Ukraine. Image: Screengrab / Al Jazeera / Agencies
Such an assertion implies that Moscow still officially maintained the position that allowing them to work in Russia proper would be a violation of international law. The claim that Donetsk and Luhansk were independent states appears to have been a way for Moscow to sidestep the issue of allowing North Korean citizens to work in a Russian-occupied territory.
Still, none of this suggests Russia has made a sudden shift from sanctions compliance to malfeasance. Since the UN laid the latest round of sanctions against the DPRK five years ago, Russia has faced accusations that it has been sidestepping UN regulations governing fuel trade with the DPRK and hiring North Koreans for work purposes.
The March 2022 report from the UN Panel of Experts for North Korea details an accredited North Korean diplomat in Moscow helping the DPRK acquire dual-use materials for its missile program.
The Kremlin has consistently responded to official accusations of sanctions violations — over issues ranging from energy sales to North Korean laborers — by denying such misdeeds. But current discourse in the upper rungs of the Russian government shows a willingness to drop any pretense of maintaining compliance over sanctions.
So policymakers will need to prepare for the potential of sanctions violations on a larger and much more explicit scale than ever before.
North Korea and Russia are already under heavy economic sanctions from the United States, the European Union and some US allies in Asia. The most feasible response to North Korea’s security threats is to maintain and expand existing unilateral sanctions to cover all nodes of DPRK-Russia economic cooperation, as well as sanctions circumvention that may be fulfilled with Chinese assistance.
Attempts to counteract Russian moves to upend the multilateral sanctions regime against the DPRK will need to consider China’s role in that regard.
Washington may hold out hope that it can induce China to pull back in its relationship with Russia. After all, China has demonstrated greater willingness than Russia in the past to support UN sanctions against the DPRK. But China and Russia currently appear to be largely aligned in a common desire to upend sanctions against the DPRK, with Moscow taking the lead.
Although unilateral sanctions against Moscow have negatively affected North Korea’s ability to earn hard currency through Russia, Chinese actions have already caused problems for countries attempting to curb Russian aggression in Ukraine through sanctions. In light of this, China, North Korea and Russia could view sanctions-busting as an area for trilateral cooperation.
Questions are swirling around whether China, Russia and North Korea coordinated their acts of provocation around South Korea earlier this week. Image: Getty / Twitter / Newsweek
In the short term, the UN will continue to have a central role in questions over Korean security. This is largely because both Moscow and Pyongyang have used the cover of the UN to justify recent moves toward solidifying their relationship in contrast to international norms.
It is time to prepare for the greater use of unilateral sanctions against Pyongyang while bracing for the veritable collapse of multilateral punitive economic measures against the DPRK. However much North Korea and Russia may attempt to couch recent developments in their bilateral relationship in the legitimacy of the UN, Moscow has shown its hand.
It can no longer be trusted to enforce punitive economic measures against North Korea in any meaningful sense.
Anthony V Rinna is Senior Editor at the Sino-NK research group.
This article, republished with permission, was first published by East Asia Forum, which is based out of the Crawford School of Public Policy within the College of Asia and the Pacific at the Australian National University.
asiatimes.com · by Anthony V Rinna · November 5, 2022
11. After Ukraine, UNSC faces another acid test on Korea
An acid test? Maybe that is the problem - those of us who focus on Korea are on an acid trip hallucinating solutions?
After Ukraine, UNSC faces another acid test on Korea
After failing to facilitate an end to the war in Ukraine, the Security Council tackles the escalating crisis on the Korean Peninsula
asiatimes.com · by More by Swaran Singh · November 4, 2022
The United Nations Security Council was already facing tough questions on its credibility having been further eroded by its inability to deliver an early termination of the Ukraine crisis. It was to meet again on Friday to take stock of another cascading crisis: the rapidly rising tensions and possible nuclear escalation on the Korean Peninsula.
The current tensions on the peninsula can be traced to the September 29 visit by US Vice-President Kamala Harris to the heavily fortified Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) that divides North and South Korea. This was followed the next day by resumption of US-Japan-South Korea trilateral naval exercises that had been suspended since 2017 when then-US president Donald Trump reached out with an olive branch to Kim Jong Un’s regime.
North Korea responded to the resumption of these naval exercises by launching ballistic missiles over Japan. Tokyo took the matter to the Security Council, which saw Russia and China insisting that it was the US-led military exercises in the Sea of Japan that had provoked North Korea, and the discussion ended in a deadlock.
Obviously no lessons were learned, as this Monday saw the beginning of another five-day-long US-South Korea annual air exercise, Operation Vigilant Storm, which had also been suspended since 2017. Only this time around, the response from North Korea was more than anticipated, leading the US and South Korea to extend exercises beyond their scheduled closing date on Friday, further aggravating a rapidly rising crisis in the making.
Rapid buildup
Against this backdrop of mutual suspicions, the last four days were especially dramatic. The news of resumption of Vigilant Storm had already triggered angry responses from Pyongyang, calling them “aggressive and provocative” and requesting their suspension. But their initiation on Monday saw North Korea begin an unprecedented cascade of missile launches. On Wednesday, it launched nearly 30 missiles and more than a hundred artillery shells.
To make things worse, for the first time since the 1948 bifurcation of the Korean Peninsula into North and South, three missiles on Wednesday landed 56 kilometers south of the Northern Limit Line off the east coast. And to complicate matters further, this was responded to by South Korea’s F-15K and KF-16 jets firing three guided surface-to-air missiles into the sea approximately same distance north of the Northern Limit Line.
The South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff called it their “resolve to respond sternly to any provocations,” while Japanese Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada said North Korea’s actions were “absolutely unacceptable.”
On Thursday morning, taking matters forward, Pyongyang launched a Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), which reportedly failed after reaching an apogee of 750km and falling into the Sea of Japan. Anticipating it crossing over Japan, Tokyo had issued a warning to its northern prefectures.
To recall, North Korea had carried out the first test of its Hwasong-17 ICBM on March 24 this year. But this again is believed by some to have failed, though others believed it reached an apogee of 6,000km and traveled a distance of 1,090km in 64 minutes.
The Hwasong-17, also called the “Monster Missiles,” is the most potent symbol of North Korea’s nuclear deterrence against the United States.
And to endorse this conviction in Pyongyang once again, within hours US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, during a meeting with his South Korean counterpart, issued a warning that any North Korean nuclear attack, including use of non-strategic nuclear weapons, against the United States or its allies would “result in the end of the Kim regime.”
UNSC deadlocked
Meanwhile, the United States – backed by Britain, France, Albania, Ireland and Norway – asked for the UN Security Council to meet publicly on Friday to take stock of the efficacy (read inefficacy) of all its bans on North Korea’s nuclear and missile tests.
The result of this meeting, however, can be anybody’s guess. Only last month, Japan brought this issue of North Korean missiles to UNSC with no results whatsoever. This, if anything, has perhaps further emboldened Kim Jong Un.
Friday’s meeting will not be the first time the Security Council has discussed North Korea. Since 1984, Pyongyang has carried out more than 200 missile launches and six nuclear tests, and half of these have been since 2016 under Kim Jong Un. Likewise, since 1950, the UNSC has passed 21 major resolutions (plus resolutions to extend or implement earlier resolutions) related to North Korea, with the majority of these since Kim Jong Un came to power in 2012.
As well, in more than one way the current Ukraine crisis has only strengthened North Korean resolve. Without doubt, the Ukraine war has exposed the limitations of the veto-based system of the UN Security Council.
But the war in Ukraine – a country that once held the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal, which it surrendered in 1994 in exchange for security guarantees by the veto-wielding UNSC Permanent Five members – has also reinforced the “currency of power” argument about nuclear weapons.
In a bizarre way, this has also reinforced the resolve of nuclear-aspirant nations. Does this make non-proliferation a lost cause and the future far too uncertain?
Back to the future
North Korea, if anything, forms part of this deeper malaise of great-power contestations. Its departure from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, first in 1994 and then finally in 2003, saw the United States for the first time outsource the non-proliferation lead to China as convener of the Six Party Talks.
Those talks took place from 2003 to 2009 and, after a lot of juggling, even clinched a joint statement on denuclearization. North Korea even dismantled its plutonium-producing reactor. The United Nations set up a monitoring committee under UNSC Resolution 1718 and a Panel of Experts created under UNSC Resolution 1874 of 2009.
But great-power contestations intervened, especially since Donald Trump’s tumultuous “fire and fury” phase, which was followed by his two “falling in love” summits with Kim Jong Un, encouraging Pyongyang to find solace and faith in brute force.
And once again, the ongoing escalation on the Korean Peninsula seems to be getting far too intertwined with exogenous factors that vary from domestic constituencies to global equations of major powers.
Resumption of the air exercises this week, for example, has been linked to the war in Ukraine, where North Korea, along with Iran, has been provisioning Russian President Vladimir Putin’s military operations.
US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby had only recently accused North Korea of providing “thousands” of artillery shells to aid Russia’s Ukraine war. And the United States also remains anxious about incessant reports of North Korean ICBM tests and its next nuclear test, which is seen as imminent given that both Russia and China are unlikely to support UN sanctions on Pyongyang.
With attention quickly shifting to the coming climate and G20 summits, interlocutors on escalating Korean Peninsula tensions may find brief relief in a stalemate by focusing on style rather than substance. But remember, such hedging strategies may push dangers further away into future, but they make their outcomes potentially more catastrophic.
Follow Swaran Singh on Twitter @SwaranSinghJNU.
asiatimes.com · by More by Swaran Singh · November 4, 2022
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Senior Advisor, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
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