Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners
 
 

Quotes of the Day:


“Man… Is a team or civilized animal; nevertheless, he requires proper instruction, and a fortunate nature, and then of all animals he becomes the most divine and most civilized; but if he be insufficiently or ill educated, he is the most savage of earthly creatures."
– Plato

"I had reasoned this out in my mind, there was one of two things I had a right to, liberty or death; if I could not have one, I would have the other."
– Harriet Tubman

"Wear gratitude like a cloak and it will feed every corner of your life." 
– Rumi



1. South Korea’s Martial-Law Chaos Deepens, With a Suicide Attempt and Raids

2. Ex-defense minister formally arrested on insurrection charges

2. Ex-defense minister attempts suicide at detention facility

4. Nat'l police chief, Seoul police head arrested in martial law probe

5. Prosecutors raid Army Special Warfare Command headquarters as part of martial law probe

6. Presidential office does not have detailed Cabinet meeting minutes on martial law decree

7. N. Korea reports S. Korea's martial law turmoil for 1st time

8. PM and top officials under treason probe, sparking leadership void concerns

9. U.S. defense bill reaffirms troop levels and nuclear support for South Korea

10.U.S. considers Pres. Yoon as Biden's current counterpart

11. Yoon could become the first sitting Korean president to face arrest

12. Witness reveals martial law night

13. Damage to South Korea's foreign policy

14. Yoon’s Failed Political Coup and South Korea’s Mounting Crisis

15. Remembering David I. Steinberg

16. Police face delays in raid of presidential office

17. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 10, 2024 (and north Korea)

18. North Korea Says Yoon Has Caused ‘Pandemonium’ in South Korea




1. South Korea’s Martial-Law Chaos Deepens, With a Suicide Attempt and Raids


With all due respect to my Korean journalist friends, some of the best reporting on Korea comes from non-Korean media sources such as the Wall Street Journal team in Korea. (that is not a problem with journalists but with the nature and agendas of Korean media organizations and what they allow to be reported).


This excerpt succinctly explains the political situation and what is influencing the investigations by prosecutors and actions by the National Assembly. With this excerpt you can track the players and the political fight that will play out.


Excerpts:


Yoon’s ruling People Power Party, whose popularity has plummeted, is seeking to stall the president’s removal, since they have low odds of winning a snap election right now. Yoon’s resignation would trigger a presidential vote within 60 days—and the head of the opposition Democratic Party, Lee Jae-myung, is the runaway front-runner. But Lee has five ongoing trials, from perjury to breach of duty, which if convicted would bar him from running for office for 10 years.

The delay tactics are a gamble for the conservatives. About three-quarters of South Koreans want to see Yoon gone, according to recent polling. Candlelight protests have unfolded nationwide, including roughly 100,000 who rallied in front of the National Assembly during Saturday’s impeachment vote.
The tumult has brought chaos and concern to South Korea, a top U.S. ally, Asia’s fourth-largest economy and a global cultural powerhouse. Officials had to clarify earlier this week that Yoon is still legally commander in chief, even though his ruling party and the prime minister have said the South Korean leader would be sidelined until departing his role. 
Lawmakers have plans to set up a special committee to investigate the martial-law move. As part of that effort, the National Assembly will seek a public testimony from Yoon, who later said his actions were made out of desperation. 

South Korea’s Martial-Law Chaos Deepens, With a Suicide Attempt and Raids

North Korea, in first public response to last week’s events, lambasted its southern neighbor as a ‘fascist dictatorship’

https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/south-koreas-martial-law-chaos-deepens-with-a-suicide-attempt-and-raids-bdc2efe7?mod=hp_lead_pos10

By Timothy W. Martin

Follow and Jiyoung Sohn

Follow

Dec. 11, 2024 2:44 am ET


The presidential office in Seoul. Police sought to raid the building on Wednesday. Photo: kim hong-ji/Reuters

SEOUL—South Korea’s martial-law crisis widened as the imprisoned former defense minister attempted suicide, investigators said they would seek to arrest leader Yoon Suk Yeol and police attempted to raid the presidential office.

North Korea also broke its silence on the matter, calling it a “shocking incident of the puppet Yoon Suk Yeol regime” where “guns and knives of its fascist dictatorship wrought havoc across South Korea,” according to a Wednesday state media report.

At 11:52 p.m. Tuesday, Kim Yong-hyun, the country’s recently resigned defense minister, attempted to hang himself at the detention facility where he is being held on insurrection and other charges tied to the martial-law order, according to South Korea’s justice ministry. Seoul’s military has said Kim proposed to Yoon the idea of instituting emergency powers, which sought to curtail political activity, the media and health services. 

Kim—the first major official to be detained over the martial-law move—had been behind bars since Sunday, after he voluntarily went in for questioning. He attempted to take his life inside the bathroom of his cell by making a makeshift rope by tying together his undershirt and thermal pants, the justice ministry said. 


Kim Yong-hyun, the country’s recently resigned defense minister, attempted to hang himself on Tuesday. Photo: leah millis/Reuters

Authorities immediately intervened and stopped the attempt. Kim’s condition is stable and he is back in detention, just outside Seoul, as normal, the justice ministry said. 

More than a week ago, South Korea fell under martial law for about six hours. Yoon, in a stunning address announcing the move, claimed the nation had become vulnerable to North Korean “communist forces” due to the “den of criminals” blocking legislation and impeaching his administration’s officials.

The conservative Yoon survived a Saturday impeachment attempt, with all but a handful of ruling-party lawmakers boycotting the vote. The opposition is about eight votes shy of a two-thirds majority needed at South Korea’s unicameral, 300-seat legislature—though several additional conservatives have recently signaled they could move to impeach Yoon. A second impeachment vote is expected Saturday.

The legal scrutiny over Yoon and his cabinet over last week’s martial-law decree has accelerated. Investigators vowed to arrest—or seek to detain—the 63-year-old Yoon, pledging to take “every measure that we can,” said Oh Dong-woon, who heads a South Korean unit dedicated to probes of high-ranking officials, in a parliamentary committee meeting. Two days earlier, Yoon was hit with a travel ban.


South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol is expected to face a second impeachment vote on Saturday. Photo: Jung Yeon-je/AFP/Getty Images

The South Korean leader is under investigation for a variety of charges, including insurrection—one of the few crimes not covered by presidential immunity. On Wednesday, police sought to raid the presidential office, though they were blocked for several hours by Yoon’s security team.  

It isn’t clear if Yoon is at the presidential compound or at his private residence in Seoul. His popularity sank to 13% after his martial-law decree, according to polling. Yoon, a career prosecutor and political neophyte, is about at the halfway point of a five-year term set to end in 2027. He won a narrow election that revealed sharp partisan divides in South Korea that haven’t gone away.

Yoon’s ruling People Power Party, whose popularity has plummeted, is seeking to stall the president’s removal, since they have low odds of winning a snap election right now. Yoon’s resignation would trigger a presidential vote within 60 days—and the head of the opposition Democratic Party, Lee Jae-myung, is the runaway front-runner. But Lee has five ongoing trials, from perjury to breach of duty, which if convicted would bar him from running for office for 10 years.

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South Korean lawmakers filed a motion to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol a day after he declared martial law, upending political stability for a close U.S. ally. The National Assembly will vote on the motion by Saturday. Photo: Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images

The delay tactics are a gamble for the conservatives. About three-quarters of South Koreans want to see Yoon gone, according to recent polling. Candlelight protests have unfolded nationwide, including roughly 100,000 who rallied in front of the National Assembly during Saturday’s impeachment vote.

The tumult has brought chaos and concern to South Korea, a top U.S. ally, Asia’s fourth-largest economy and a global cultural powerhouse. Officials had to clarify earlier this week that Yoon is still legally commander in chief, even though his ruling party and the prime minister have said the South Korean leader would be sidelined until departing his role. 

Lawmakers have plans to set up a special committee to investigate the martial-law move. As part of that effort, the National Assembly will seek a public testimony from Yoon, who later said his actions were made out of desperation. 

Write to Timothy W. Martin at Timothy.Martin@wsj.com and Jiyoung Sohn at jiyoung.sohn@wsj.com

Copyright ©2024 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8


2. Ex-defense minister formally arrested on insurrection charges


Not an insurrection. An autocoup or self coup.



(LEAD) Ex-defense minister formally arrested on insurrection charges | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Haye-ah · December 11, 2024

(ATTN: UPDATES with details; CHANGES headline)

SEOUL, Dec. 11 (Yonhap) -- Former Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun was formally arrested Wednesday on charges of helping President Yoon Suk Yeol stage an insurrection through his short-lived imposition of martial law last week.

The Seoul Central District Court issued a warrant for his arrest after prosecutors accused Kim of engaging in "essential" activities in insurrection and abusing his power to obstruct the exercising of rights when martial law was in place for six hours between Tuesday and Wednesday last week.

Kim is the first person to be formally arrested over the events.


This file photo, taken Oct. 1, 2024, shows former Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun (L) and President Yoon Suk Yeol. (Yonhap)

"We considered the degree to which the charges are supported, the gravity of the crime and concerns he will destroy evidence," the court said in issuing the warrant.

The court also determined that Kim's alleged crimes were within the scope of crimes the prosecution is authorized to investigate.

With Kim's formal arrest, the prosecution's investigation into Yoon's insurrection charges is expected to pick up pace. Yoon has been booked as a suspect and barred from traveling overseas.

Under the law, a president is immune from prosecution while in office, except in cases of insurrection.

In seeking Kim's arrest, the prosecution accused him of "conspiring with President Yoon to start a riot with the aim of subverting the national Constitution."

Prosecutors suspect the then defense minister proposed the declaration of martial law to Yoon and ordered the deployment of troops to the National Assembly compound and the National Election Commission headquarters.

They also suspect Kim wrote the martial law decree in consultation with Yoon to include unconstitutional restrictions on the authority of the National Assembly.

Kim forwent a court hearing Tuesday that reviewed whether to issue the warrant, saying through his legal counsel that he deeply apologized for causing great anxiety and inconvenience to the people.

Prosecutors have questioned Kim three times since he was taken into custody Sunday after he voluntarily appeared for the investigation.

Kim reportedly conceded during questioning that he proposed martial law to Yoon but claimed his actions were neither illegal nor unconstitutional.

By law, the ringleader of an alleged insurrection could face the death penalty or imprisonment for life. Those who participate in plotting an insurrection or engage in other "essential" activities could be punished by death, with life imprisonment or a prison term of at least five years.

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Haye-ah · December 11, 2024



3. Ex-defense minister attempts suicide at detention facility


Tragic fallout from the martial law debacle.



(2nd LD) Ex-defense minister attempts suicide at detention facility | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Haye-ah · December 11, 2024

(ATTN: UPDATES throughout with details, background; ADDS photo, byline)

By Lee Haye-ah and Kim Seung-yeon

SEOUL, Dec. 11 (Yonhap) -- Former Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun attempted to take his own life while being held at a detention facility on charges of insurrection, but he is currently in stable condition, the justice ministry said Wednesday.

Kim was found trying to hang himself with a rope made from tying together innerwear inside a bathroom at the Seoul Dongbu Detention Center in eastern Seoul at 11:52 p.m. Tuesday, shortly before a court issued a warrant to arrest him, the ministry said.

"There was an immediate dispatch to restrain him," the ministry said. "The medical team's treatment showed he was in stable condition with no abnormalities, and he is currently being held under normal conditions."


This file photo taken on Oct. 1, 2024, shows former Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun (L) and President Yoon Suk Yeol. (Yonhap)

Kim was placed under formal arrest early Wednesday on charges of helping President Yoon Suk Yeol stage an insurrection through his short-lived imposition of martial law last week.

Prosecutors suspect the then defense minister proposed the declaration of martial law to Yoon and ordered the deployment of troops to the National Assembly compound and the National Election Commission headquarters.

By law, those who participate in plotting an insurrection are punishable by death, life imprisonment or a prison term of at least five years.

Shin Yong-hae, commissioner general of the Korea Correctional Service, told a parliamentary legislation committee meeting that Kim is being held in a protective cell following the attempt on his own life.

Rep. Jung Chung-rai of the main opposition Democratic Party, who chairs the committee, suggested the former defense minister may have taken the extreme measure after feeling "wronged" that the prosecution was targeting him, not Yoon, over the alleged insurrection.

Justice Minister Park Sung-jae dismissed the notion

"I don't think so," he said during the meeting. "I don't have a basis for this, but someone who tried to commit suicide likely had various reasons, and there is no way for me to know."

Kim was brought in for further questioning by prosecutors at the detention center later Wednesday.


The Seoul Dongbu Detention Center in eastern Seoul (Yonhap)

elly@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Haye-ah · December 11, 2024




4. Nat'l police chief, Seoul police head arrested in martial law probe


The buck needs to stop at the top of these organizations. And we should be thankful that many of their subordinates acted in support of democracy.



Nat'l police chief, Seoul police head arrested in martial law probe | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Seung-yeon · December 11, 2024

By Kim Seung-yeon

SEOUL, Dec. 11 (Yonhap) -- Police arrested early Wednesday the national police commissioner and the Seoul police chief in connection with an investigation into the botched martial law imposition, officials said.

Cho Ji-ho, the commissioner-general of the Korean National Police Agency, and Kim Bong-sik, the head of the Seoul Metropolitan Police Agency, were arrested without warrant at around 3:50 a.m. on insurrection charges, the special investigation team handling the case said.

Under emergency arrest provisions, police have 48 hours to detain and question suspects.

Cho and Kim had been undergoing questioning at their respective police headquarters for about 10 hours since Tuesday afternoon.

The two top police officials are suspected of instructing police officers to cordon off the National Assembly compound to block lawmakers from entering parliament in a bid to reverse the martial law decree.

Cho is suspected of sending police personnel to the National Election Commission to assist the military in carrying out orders issued under martial law.

Both Cho and Kim have been placed under a travel ban.


National Police Agency Commissioner-General Cho Ji-ho (L) and Kim Bong-sik, chief of the Seoul Metropolitan Police Agency. (Yonhap)

elly@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Seung-yeon · December 11, 2024


5. Prosecutors raid Army Special Warfare Command headquarters as part of martial law probe


But will they commend those who allow the National Assembly to meet and conduct its vote?



(LEAD) Prosecutors raid Army Special Warfare Command headquarters as part of martial law probe | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Hyun-soo · December 11, 2024

(ATTN: ADDS details; CHANGES photo)

SEOUL, Dec. 11 (Yonhap) -- Prosecutors on Wednesday raided the headquarters of the Army Special Warfare Command to investigate its role in last week's brief imposition of martial law.

The command was key in deploying troops to the National Assembly building on Dec. 3 to try to stop lawmakers from repealing the martial law imposed by President Yoon Suk Yeol.

Soldiers of the command were deployed to block the National Assembly compound during martial law.

Some of the command's field-grade officers were also mobilized to the National Election Committee and they reportedly filmed the commission's computer servers.

Meanwhile, prosecutors continued their search of the headquarters of the Defense Counterintelligence Command for a third day on Wednesday.


This photo shows Lt. Gen. Kwak Jong-keun, chief of the Army Special Warfare Command on Dec. 10, 2024. (Yonhap)

hague@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Hyun-soo · December 11, 2024



6. Presidential office does not have detailed Cabinet meeting minutes on martial law decree


Plausible deniability? But I will bet there are one or more cabinet members who left the meeting and dictated notes for the future investigation. There were probably no meeting notes by design but I am sure some members will come forward with memorandums for record.



Presidential office does not have detailed Cabinet meeting minutes on martial law decree | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · December 11, 2024

SEOUL, Dec. 11 (Yonhap) -- The presidential office has said it does not possess the gist of remarks by participants at a Cabinet meeting that took place right before last week's martial law declaration, adding the gathering lasted for just five minutes, the interior ministry said Wednesday.

The presidential office unveiled some details of the meeting in response to a request by the ministry as prosecutors and police are ramping up a probe into military and other officials over insurrection charges in connection with President Yoon Suk Yeol's martial law declaration on Dec. 3.

The Cabinet meeting took place from 10:17 p.m. to 10:22 p.m. at the presidential office in central Seoul, attended by Yoon, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo and other Cabinet members, according to the ministry.

The presidential office said the Dec. 3 meeting's agenda was to declare emergency martial law in a bid to "maintain constitutional order," adding that it did not have a summary of the participants' remarks.

By law, holding a Cabinet meeting before a martial law decree is a necessary step to review it. Though it does not require approval from Cabinet members present, they are under criticism for failing to prevent Yoon from issuing the decree.

Meanwhile, a Cabinet meeting to review the lifting of martial law took place for just two minutes from 4:27 a.m. early last Wednesday. The meeting was held after the National Assembly unanimously voted to reject the order.

Earlier in the day, police attempted to raid the presidential office to search for material related to the martial law decree, including records of the Cabinet meeting held shortly before Yoon made the declaration.

Police on Tuesday requested the Cabinet members who took part in the meeting to appear for questioning.


This file photo, taken Dec. 6, 2024, shows the presidential office in central Seoul. (Yonhap)

yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · December 11, 2024



7. N. Korea reports S. Korea's martial law turmoil for 1st time


"Gangster organization"

"Several helicopters and fully armed martial law forces, including the gangster organization, the Army Special Warfare Command, were deployed to seal off the National Assembly," it noted.



N. Korea reports S. Korea's martial law turmoil for 1st time | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Park Boram · December 11, 2024

By Park Boram

SEOUL, Dec. 11 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's state media on Wednesday reported on the martial law turmoil in South Korea for the first time, including the opposition's push to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol, while blaming Yoon for causing nationwide chaos.

"The shocking incident of the puppet Yoon Suk Yeol regime ... suddenly declaring a martial law decree and unhesitatingly wielding the guns and knives of its fascist dictatorship wrought havoc across South Korea," the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported.

The same article was also published in the Rodong Sinmun daily, which targets the general North Korean readership, accompanied by a photo of a civic rally in South Korea held in front of the National Assembly.

The KCNA report detailed Yoon's declaration of martial law on the night of Dec. 3, its lifting six hours later, and the dismissal of an impeachment motion against Yoon at the Assembly last Saturday after ruling party lawmakers boycotted the vote.

"Several helicopters and fully armed martial law forces, including the gangster organization, the Army Special Warfare Command, were deployed to seal off the National Assembly," it noted.

The report also said a large-scale civic rally took place after the impeachment motion was voted down Saturday, quoting participants who called Yoon a "disaster" and demanded his "immediate impeachment" and "punishment."

"The international community is sternly watching, with assessments that the martial law incident exposed vulnerabilities in South Korean society .... and that Yoon Suk Yeol's political life could face an early end," the report said.

It marks the first time in a week that North Korea has published articles critical of South Korea. Until Wednesday last week, the Rodong Sinmun frequently carried articles criticizing Yoon, but the news flow stopped the following day, one day after the martial law was lifted.


A protest rally takes place near the National Assembly on Dec. 6, 2024. (Yonhap)

pbr@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Park Boram · December 11, 2024





8. PM and top officials under treason probe, sparking leadership void concerns


Kim Jong Un is plotting how his political warfare strategy can exploit the leadership void (as well as the US political transition).


But these can be dangerous times and any military actions can easily evacuate due to miscalculation, especially due to the fear of uncertain leadership.


PM and top officials under treason probe, sparking leadership void concerns

Legal experts assert PM and ministers can perform duties until indicted amid treason controversy

https://www.chosun.com/english/national-en/2024/12/11/Y2AMFEWSDFEC5LMQUC5HYNCNKI/

By Lee Hyeon-seung,

Kim Mi-geon

Published 2024.12.11. 16:52

Updated 2024.12.11. 18:01




Prime Minister Han Duck-soo leaves the Cabinet meeting at the Government Complex Seoul in Jongno, Seoul, on Dec. 10. /News1

Prime Minister Han Duck-soo and National Intelligence Service (NIS) Director Cho Tae-yong have been named as suspects in an investigation into allegations of treason tied to the declaration of martial law. Former Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun, who is already in custody, has resigned, while former Interior and Safety Minister Lee Sang-min has also stepped down and is under investigation as a suspect. Additionally, nine other ministers, including Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs Choi Sang-mok, have been summoned for questioning as witnesses.

Concerns are growing over the potential impact on national governance. Critics warn of a possible paralysis in state affairs, a leadership vacuum, and an inability to effectively respond to evolving international challenges, including the leadership transition in the United States, which could have significant ramifications for South Korea.

The Dec. 3 martial law case is being investigated by three authorities: the police, the prosecution, and the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials. Police have launched inquiries into 11 individuals, including President Yoon Suk-yeol, former Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun, and former Interior and Safety Minister Lee Sang-min, on allegations of treason and abuse of power. These investigations were initiated following complaints filed by the Democratic Party of Korea (DPK).

The DPK’s complaint also targets former Army Chief Gen. Park An-soo; former Defense Counterintelligence Command Chief Lt. Gen. Yeo In-hyung; former Capital Defense Command Chief Lt. Gen. Lee Jin-woo; former Special Warfare Command Chief Lt. Gen. Kwak Jong-geun; Commissioner General of the Korean National Police Agency Cho Ji-ho; Seoul Metropolitan Police Agency head Kim Bong-sik; National Assembly Police Guards chief Mok Hyun-tae; and ruling People Power Party (PPP) Floor Leader Choo Kyung-ho. Prime Minister Han Duck-soo and NIS Director Cho Tae-yong were named for their participation in the Cabinet meeting where martial law was discussed, with the DPK alleging complicity in treason. Although Deputy Prime Minister Choi Sang-mok and eight other Cabinet members also attended the meeting, they were not included in the DPK’s complaint but have been called as witnesses by the police.

The prosecution’s investigation has centered on senior military officials, naming President Yoon, former Defense Minister Kim, and Counterintelligence Commander Yeo as suspects. Other individuals, including Army Chief Gen. Park, Special Warfare Commander Kwak, Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Jeong Jin-pal, Brigadier General Lee Sang-hyun of the 1st Airborne Brigade, and Military Police Commander of the Capital Defense Command Kim Chang-hak, have been summoned as witnesses.

Under the Constitution, the prime minister assumes the role of acting president if the president is unable to fulfill their duties due to death, resignation, or impeachment. However, President Yoon is not currently in such a state, as the Constitution defines “vacancy” as arising from impeachment, resignation, or removal from office. Questions have nonetheless arisen regarding whether Prime Minister Han could serve as acting president if an impeachment motion against President Yoon were passed, given Han’s own status as a suspect in the treason investigation.

Existing laws do not prohibit public officials from performing their duties while under investigation as suspects or witnesses. The State Public Officials Act stipulates that only those formally indicted on criminal charges may be suspended from duty. Jang Young-soo, a law professor at Korea University, explained, “Being under investigation does not equate to guilt. Presuming that investigations alone undermine one’s ability to fulfill official responsibilities contradicts the constitutional principle of presumption of innocence.”

A legal expert cautioned, however, that “if Prime Minister Han and other Cabinet members are indicted in connection with the treason case, the government could face a chain reaction of high-level vacancies, triggering an administrative crisis.”



9. U.S. defense bill reaffirms troop levels and nuclear support for South Korea


Will this bill be passed by the current congress? If not, will it pass as is with the current measures about Korea when both houses have Republican majorities with a Republican President ?


It is too bad congress does not does not put the same emphasis on demands for planning for regime instability and collapse and support a free and unified Korea and only focuses on nuclear issues. There is very little thought about what comes next in Korea.


Also will the Nuclear Consultative Group survive the next administration?  


Excerpts:


On Dec. 10, U.S. lawmakers emphasized in the NDAA’s section titled “Sense of Congress on defense alliances and partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region” that strengthening alliances with nations like South Korea and Japan is critical to preserving the U.S.’ strategic edge in its rivalry with China.
With regard to South Korea, the bill highlights the continued deployment of approximately 28,500 U.S. troops under the framework of the 1953 Mutual Defense Treaty, stressing the role of this presence in fostering a peaceful and stable Korean Peninsula. It also reiterates the U.S. commitment to extended deterrence, leveraging all available defense capabilities to uphold security in the region.
The legislation requires the Department of Defense to submit a detailed plan by Mar. 1, 2025, outlining measures to bolster extended deterrence for South Korea. This plan must include provisions for nuclear consultations during emergencies, joint nuclear and strategic planning, integration of conventional-nuclear capabilities, enhanced security and intelligence-sharing mechanisms, and the necessary funding, personnel, and resources to implement these objectives.


U.S. defense bill reaffirms troop levels and nuclear support for South Korea

FY 2025 NDAA highlights strategic value of Indo-Pacific alliances with South Korea and Japan

https://www.chosun.com/english/national-en/2024/12/11/TCHNOS7WT5F3ZH2KMQ7JPN5VBU/

By Kim Song-Yi,

Kim Mi-geon

Published 2024.12.11. 13:50




The U.S. Capitol in Washington. /Reuters, Yonhap News

The fiscal year 2025 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), jointly drafted by the United States Senate and House of Representatives ahead of Donald Trump’s second-term inauguration in January, reaffirms commitments to maintaining the current level of U.S. troops in South Korea and providing extended deterrence, including the nuclear umbrella, to the country.

On Dec. 10, U.S. lawmakers emphasized in the NDAA’s section titled “Sense of Congress on defense alliances and partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region” that strengthening alliances with nations like South Korea and Japan is critical to preserving the U.S.’ strategic edge in its rivalry with China.

With regard to South Korea, the bill highlights the continued deployment of approximately 28,500 U.S. troops under the framework of the 1953 Mutual Defense Treaty, stressing the role of this presence in fostering a peaceful and stable Korean Peninsula. It also reiterates the U.S. commitment to extended deterrence, leveraging all available defense capabilities to uphold security in the region.

The legislation requires the Department of Defense to submit a detailed plan by Mar. 1, 2025, outlining measures to bolster extended deterrence for South Korea. This plan must include provisions for nuclear consultations during emergencies, joint nuclear and strategic planning, integration of conventional-nuclear capabilities, enhanced security and intelligence-sharing mechanisms, and the necessary funding, personnel, and resources to implement these objectives.

Additionally, the NDAA mandates a separate report addressing ways to enhance trilateral defense cooperation among the U.S., South Korea, and Japan.

The NDAA consistently includes provisions ensuring troop levels in South Korea and reaffirming commitments to extended deterrence. During Trump’s first term from 2019 to 2021, Congress explicitly codified troop levels in South Korea to prevent reductions and restricted the use of funds if deployments dropped below-specified thresholds. These measures were later adapted into their current form during the Biden administration.

Covering the fiscal year from October 2024 to September 2025, the NDAA outlines the U.S. government’s defense spending and policy priorities. Its finalization involves several steps, including approval by the Senate and House, reconciliation into a unified version by a joint committee, re-approval by both chambers, and the president’s signature.



10. U.S. considers Pres. Yoon as Biden's current counterpart


What other option is there? But this illustrates the troubling uncertainty with the Korean political situation.


U.S. considers Pres. Yoon as Biden's current counterpart

donga.com


Posted December. 11, 2024 07:41,

Updated December. 11, 2024 07:41

U.S. considers Pres. Yoon as Biden's current counterpart. December. 11, 2024 07:41. by 워싱턴=문병기특파원, 도쿄=이상훈특파원 weappon@donga.com.

The U.S. State Department stated on Monday on the questions on Republic of Korea President Yoon's martial law situation, including his travel ban, that they regard President Yoon as a counterpart in Korea to President Jo Biden but that "the political process in Korea should play out under ROK's laws and its Constitution." This underlines the principle that President Yoon is still recognized as the head of state while stressing that the current political chaos should promptly be resolved through the rule of law.


During the State Department daily press briefing, Spokesperson Matthew Miller said that the U.S. "stands shoulder-to-shoulder with the Korean people and is most true in times of testing and uncertainty." He added that what is important is "the democratic resilience of Korea, which was hard-won for several decades."


However, major foreign media outlets noted that the leadership vacuum in Korea is damaging a wide range of areas at an accelerated speed. The New York Times said regarding the travel ban imposed on the president that the country has been thrust into a leadership vacuum and that Koreans are unsure who is governing the country. The Washington Post also noted that state affairs management is practically in paralysis and that the follow-up measures taken by the ruling party are a part of a power struggle and legally obscure as well.


Some pointed out that the damage is spilling over the security and other sectors. The Reuters noted, citing its sources in the defense industry, that political turmoil, if prolonged, can have long-term negative effects on weapon export contracts. It cited the cancellation of planned visits to South Korea by Kyrgyzstan President Sadyr Japarov, who was interested in inspecting defense facilities, and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, who had shown a strong interest in defense cooperation.


The Japanese government is extremely cautious about mentioning Korea's current internal affairs, while some key local media are showing concerns about Korean relations day after day. The Asahi Shimbun noted in its December 10 editorial that despite President Yoon's undeniable role in improving Korea-Japan relations, risks of relying excessively on personal relationships have become apparent. The Yomiuri Shimbun commented that the Japanese government is unlikely to take any action for the time being due to concerns about being dragged into Korea's domestic political turbulence.


China's state-run Global Times forecast on the 10th that the painful period of Korea's political drama is yet to be over and that its diplomatic uncertainties may deepen as long-term summit diplomacy will be paralyzed among other issues.

한국어

donga.com



11. Yoon could become the first sitting Korean president to face arrest


This will only make things worse. They should allow the political impeachment process to play out.



Yoon could become the first sitting Korean president to face arrest

donga.com


Posted December. 11, 2024 07:39,

Updated December. 11, 2024 07:39

Yoon could become the first sitting Korean president to face arrest. December. 11, 2024 07:39. .

South Korean prosecutors investigating an alleged illegal martial law declaration have requested an arrest warrant for former Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun on charges of participating in significant duties related to rebellion, abuse of authority, and disruption of right exercise. The warrant reportedly accuses Kim of conspiring with President Yoon Suk Yeol to incite a revolt aimed at undermining constitutional order. Under South Korean law, rebellion charges are classified into leadership, active participation in key roles, and minor involvement. Prosecutors allege that Kim played a pivotal "second-in-command" role in the martial law declaration and implementation process, effectively labeling President Yoon as the rebellion's ringleader.


While sitting presidents are generally protected by immunity, exceptions exist for charges of treason or rebellion. In particular, being the leader of a rebellion is classified as a serious crime punishable only by death, life imprisonment, or incarceration, making arrest and detention inevitable. Accordingly, prosecutors, the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO), and police are reportedly weighing measures to secure the president's custody. The CIO has already imposed a travel ban on Yoon, and a police official noted, "If the conditions are met, even a sitting president can be subject to emergency arrest."


Amid jurisdictional disputes among agencies, the CIO has independently sought an arrest warrant for Kim, creating procedural confusion. Nonetheless, the investigation into rebellion allegations targeting President Yoon is expected to accelerate. On Tuesday, the National Assembly passed a bill establishing a permanent special prosecutor’s office dedicated to rebellion cases. A regular special prosecutor bill is also scheduled for a vote on Thursday, which will broaden the scope and duration of the inquiry. If a special prosecutor's office is launched, the focus of the investigation will be shifted to the office. Regardless of which agency leads, it remains intact that President Yoon will likely face arrest and detention.


The prospect of a sitting president being banned from travel, arrested, or detained is unprecedented in South Korea. No previous president has faced such measures during their term, creating significant uncertainties about what might happen if the arrest does occur. Legal experts are divided on whether a detained president would be deemed “unable to perform their duties” as stipulated under the Constitution, which could trigger a power transfer to an acting president. Some argue that normal governance would be impossible under detention, while others contend that "in-prison decision-making" remains feasible.


The turmoil that our nation is faced with can be directly attributed to President Yoon. Calls for his resignation have intensified, with debate now centering on the timing and method—whether through impeachment or voluntary resignation. Observers warn that Yoon may go down in history as the first sitting South Korean president to be arrested and detained while in office.

한국어

donga.com


12. Witness reveals martial law night


Illuminating. 


When all is said and done we will likely see that key leaders made decisions to do the right thing.


Excerpts:


He discussed it with a former senior NIS official whom he considered a mentor, and it was eventually exposed on Friday as a ‘plan to illegally arrest and detain politicians using intelligence agencies.’ In the National Assembly that day, Hong described the process in detail. Concerns about a second declaration of martial law and a sense of justice prompted his revelations, according to a government official who observed them. “The president's trust and unjust orders are two different things,” Hong emphasized. After his disclosure and subsequent replacement, Hong told those around him, “I suddenly feel free and happy, although I feel like my whole body has been beaten up....”
...


The cabinet members, including the prime minister and the staff of the president's office, were appointed to high positions because they had the president's trust. What is important to note, as Mr. Hong pointed out, is that being trusted by the president is one thing, but refusing to obey an unjust order is another. The witnesses of that night—the cabinet members, the president's staff, the soldiers, the police, and others—should tell the public the truth as they know it. It is important to remember that cooperating with the truth about martial law does not make you a traitor to the president; it makes you a historian.



Witness reveals martial law night

donga.com


Posted December. 10, 2024 07:50,

Updated December. 10, 2024 07:50

Witness reveals martial law night. December. 10, 2024 07:50. .

I once met a former senior National Intelligence Service (NIS) official during the early days of the Yoon Suk Yeol administration. He remarked, “Why are there so many special advisers to the Director of National Intelligence? I don’t even know what they do.” At that time, the NIS had several special advisers to the director, each specializing in different areas. These special advisers, who work in the NIS building, are appointed by the president. The former official complained that President Yoon, who did not trust the then-NIS Director Kim Kyou-hyun, a former diplomat, was using these special advisers to control the NIS’s internal affairs—an abnormal way of operating.


Kim faced trust issues from the president throughout his tenure and was dismissed in November last year following an unprecedented personnel shakeup in June. Hong Jang-won, formerly a special adviser to the head of the NIS, was appointed as the NIS's first deputy director shortly after the dismissal. Due to his close ties to the president, Hong was considered a candidate for the next NIS chief and served as the acting head of the intelligence agency for nearly two months before a new director was appointed. He reported directly to the president on North Korean developments and was even invited to several drinking occasions presided over by the president. He was quite literally treated as special, as his title, ‘special adviser to the president.’


On Tuesday night, two hours before President Yoon declared martial law, he called Hong directly on his secure phone. “I’ll have something important to tell you in an hour or two, so keep your phone on,” he said. Two hours later, Yoon stated, “I’ll give you the authority to conduct spy investigations, so help and support the Defense Counterintelligence Command. Take this opportunity to catch them all and clean up the mess.” The order was to track down politicians from both the ruling and opposition parties, including Woo Won-sik, Han Dong-hoon, and Lee Jae-myung, and assist the Defense Counterintelligence Command in arresting them. The intelligence agencies were thrust into the midst of an anachronistic martial law.


He discussed it with a former senior NIS official whom he considered a mentor, and it was eventually exposed on Friday as a ‘plan to illegally arrest and detain politicians using intelligence agencies.’ In the National Assembly that day, Hong described the process in detail. Concerns about a second declaration of martial law and a sense of justice prompted his revelations, according to a government official who observed them. “The president's trust and unjust orders are two different things,” Hong emphasized. After his disclosure and subsequent replacement, Hong told those around him, “I suddenly feel free and happy, although I feel like my whole body has been beaten up....”


Hong, who was selected as a representative Hwarang upon graduating from the Korean Military Academy, took great pride in his work at the National Intelligence Service's overseas division. However, what left a scar on him was the Yoon Suk Yeol prosecution's investigation into the alleged misuse of special activity expenses by the head of the National Intelligence Service. While the investigation into the NIS regarding the manipulation of internet comments was what first brought Yoon to prominence, the special activity expense allegation marked the second investigation into the NIS. “The NIS shouldn't be doing this,” Yoon said, pushing forward with the inquiry. How can we reconcile the fact that a prosecutor who twice investigated NIS misconduct later appointed an NIS official who had been a subject of one of those investigations to a key position after becoming president, ordered him to commit illegal acts, and was ultimately rejected by that very official? There could be no more evident example of divisive and contradictory behavior leading to self-destruction.


The cabinet members, including the prime minister and the staff of the president's office, were appointed to high positions because they had the president's trust. What is important to note, as Mr. Hong pointed out, is that being trusted by the president is one thing, but refusing to obey an unjust order is another. The witnesses of that night—the cabinet members, the president's staff, the soldiers, the police, and others—should tell the public the truth as they know it. It is important to remember that cooperating with the truth about martial law does not make you a traitor to the president; it makes you a historian.

한국어

donga.com



13. Damage to South Korea's foreign policy


Yes,. There will be changes.


Conclusion:


It is still unclear whether Yoon will survive the current political crisis, but whether he does or Prime Minister Han Duk-soo soon becomes the acting president, neither will be in a position to address the critical foreign policy issues related to Trump’s return to office and North Korea’s growing relationship with Moscow. Instead, South Korea now finds itself in a similar situation to 2016, except Trump and Kim Jong-un will be better prepared to move forward on their policy preferences while South Korea again faces political uncertainty.



Damage to South Korea's foreign policy

The Korea Times · December 9, 2024

By Troy Stangarone

Troy Stangarone

For the immediate future, protecting democracy and restoring domestic political stability must be a priority for South Korea. Foreign policy challenges will need to be dealt with after stability has been restored. However, whatever President Yoon Suk Yeol’s true motivation, the declaration of martial law could not have been more poorly timed for South Korea’s foreign policy interests.

Whether President Yoon survives the current crisis or not, the parallel with the impeachment of former President Park Geun-hye is hard to ignore. The impeachment of Park occurred almost eight years ago from the day of the initial impeachment vote against Yoon and also came as South Korea faced uncertainty from an incoming Trump administration in the United States.

Park’s impeachment put South Korea at a disadvantage to other U.S. partners and allies. Then-incoming President Donald Trump was new to office and there was uncertainty as to whether he meant what he said on the campaign trail. That allowed creative operators such as Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe the opportunity to not only work to woo Trump but also engage with the establishment Republicans set to fill the Trump administration.

In contrast, South Korea went through a leadership void that lasted until Moon Jae-in was sworn in as president in May of 2017. During the critical period of the U.S. presidential transition and the early months of the Trump administration, no South Korean official could credibly engage with the new leadership in Washington.

Prior to Yoon’s decision to declare martial law on Dec. 3, South Korea looked better placed to deal with an incoming Trump administration than in 2016. South Korean officials and experts had spent more than a year coming to Washington consulting with experts in the Washington policy community to learn what policies a new Trump administration might pursue and who would be the key players if he were to retake the White House. A better understanding of a second Trump term would allow South Korea to better prepare to navigate policy changes potentially pushed by the Trump administration related to national security and economic cooperation.

Knowing Trump’s concerns about U.S. allies, U.S. troop levels, and the amount South Korea contributes to the stationing of U.S. troops on the Korean Peninsula are potential areas of tension with a second Trump administration. Trump’s last secretary of defense, Mark Esper, has suggested that Trump intended to pull all U.S. troops out of South Korea had he won a second term in 2020. During the campaign, he suggested that a decrease in U.S. troops could be under consideration if the “wealthy” South Korea didn’t “treat us properly.”

Trump has suggested that South Korea should be paying significantly more for U.S. military support. In an October interview, Trump indicated that South Korea should be paying $10 billion a year for burden sharing — a little less than 10 times what South Korea currently contributes. While South Korea recently reached a new agreement on burden sharing with the Biden administration, the expectation is that Trump will look to reopen that agreement.

Beyond the expected issues of troop levels and burden sharing, South Korea has an important interest in how the war in Ukraine ends. North Korea has likely earned more than $4.3 billion in artillery sales to Russia alone and is benefiting from its relationship with Moscow through sanctions evasion, military technology transfers and practical battlefield experience for its troops.

Trump has indicated that he will pressure Ukraine and Russia to end the war once he’s in office. How the war ends and the nature of Russia’s relationship with North Korea after the war have direct implications for South Korean national security. With a weakened Yoon or an acting president, South Korea will now have little ability to influence the United States' approach to any conclusion of the war.

The incoming Trump administration has also put forward a range of tariff and regulatory changes that will directly impact South Korean interests. While the proposed 25 percent tariff on Mexico does not directly impact South Korea, it does impact Kia’s production of the Forte. The proposed 10 percent tariffs on China will make auto parts exported from China for production in the United States more expensive. These tariffs are separate from Trump’s potential 10 to 20 percent universal tariff or changes to the Inflation Reduction Act or CHIPS Act that would directly affect Korean exports and investments.

It is still unclear whether Yoon will survive the current political crisis, but whether he does or Prime Minister Han Duk-soo soon becomes the acting president, neither will be in a position to address the critical foreign policy issues related to Trump’s return to office and North Korea’s growing relationship with Moscow. Instead, South Korea now finds itself in a similar situation to 2016, except Trump and Kim Jong-un will be better prepared to move forward on their policy preferences while South Korea again faces political uncertainty.

Troy Stangarone is the director of the Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy and the deputy director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the Woodrow Wilson Center.

The Korea Times · December 9, 2024



14. Yoon’s Failed Political Coup and South Korea’s Mounting Crisis



Autocoup or self coup.


Yoon’s Failed Political Coup and South Korea’s Mounting Crisis

Yoon’s martial law decree lasted only three hours, but the ramifications for his political future and the country’s political divide will go on much longer.

Chung Min Lee

Senior Fellow, Asia Program

Published on December 5, 2024

carnegieendowment.org

At 10:23 p.m. local time on December 3, 2024, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol declared martial law. As Koreans across the nation sat glued to their TVs—shocked and stupefied—the opposition liberal party, the Democratic Party (DP), denounced Yoon’s move. And the leader of Yoon’s conservative ruling People Power Party (PPP), Han Dong-hoon, immediately attacked Yoon’s decision and said he would stop it “together with fellow Koreans” around 10:45 p.m., when no one really knew what was going on.1 As troops summoned under martial law began to surround the National Assembly building, citizens began to gather, and many wondered if clashes were inevitable.

Within two and a half hours, however, the 190 out of 300 members of the National Assembly who were present at the time voted unanimously to annul martial law, a decision that Yoon had to accept. According to local press reports, the majority of the cabinet who reviewed Yoon’s decision to enact martial law were opposed, but he steamrolled his decision.2 (The cabinet does not have the power to approve or disapprove the enactment of martial law.) The Chosun Ilbo, a widely read South Korean newspaper of record, reported on December 4 that all cabinet members (including the prime minister) tendered their resignations, although the final decision will be made by Yoon.3

In the past, specific cabinet members or the entire cabinet resigned to accept responsibility for a particular crisis. Demonstrating collective responsibility is an important element of the Korean political milieu. The same newspaper article noted that, in addition to the cabinet, the president’s chief of staff, director of policy, and the national security adviser also offered to resign from their posts.4 The silver lining in the midst of an explosive political crisis is that South Korea’s constitution was upheld.

Yoon should never have chosen to announce martial law, but he did so at the most precarious moment of his presidency and amid mounting external challenges. It will take several weeks and months before the dust settles, but three key consequences are most likely.

  1. A rapid erosion in Yoon’s remaining authority and influence as president, just at the midpoint of his single five-year term, and a growing possibility of his resignation, because his political support is cratering not only within the ruling party, but across the country
  2. Massive political struggles and realignments within the ruling and opposition parties to maximize political dividends, as presidential hopefuls begin to flex their muscles in earnest in early 2025, with the possibility of early elections if Yoon is ultimately impeached or chooses to step down
  3. Significant external ramifications of a weakened South Korean government just as Donald Trump prepares to re-enter the White House in January 2025, North Korea’s nuclear threat worsens, more North Korean soldiers join the fight alongside Russia in the Ukrainian war, and the potential for worsening U.S.-China trade wars that will have critical ramifications for the South Korean economy

Yoon’s Crashing Support Base

Whatever happens in the ensuing weeks and months, South Korean democracy is going to remain intact. But for all intents and purposes, Yoon’s authority as president has eroded to the point of no return. The DP and other opposition parties submitted an impeachment motion in the National Assembly charging Yoon with sedition, and voting is scheduled for December 7 (although PPP members have stated that they will oppose impeachment).5

In a development that illustrated the extremely fast-paced tempo of this crisis, on December 5, the National Assembly passed a motion impeaching the auditor general and three high-ranking prosecutors, including an official who allegedly failed to fully investigate a stock manipulation case against First Lady Kim Keon-hee. Out of 192 members seated in the National Assembly, the motion to impeach the auditor general passed with 188 in favor and four against.6 This was the first time in South Korean political history that the auditor general was impeached. One of the main reasons behind Yoon’s very low approval rating even before the martial law fiasco was his refusal to allow the prosecution to investigate many scandals associated with his wife. In October 2024, The Diplomat noted in an article that:

“Yoon’s once-stalwart image as an uncompromising prosecutor who led heavy-handed investigations into political and business elites is nowhere to be seen today. When the charges of misconduct implicate his family, the president apparently operates with a different yardstick. This was evident when Yoon twice vetoed (recently in October) a bill seeking a special counsel inquiry into allegations against Kim, despite overwhelming public support for such an investigation.”7

When he won the presidency in March 2022 with a margin of just 0.7 percent, Yoon promised to run a more open government. He vowed to correct what he felt were shortcomings of the previous progressive administration led by former president Moon Jae-in. Yoon moved quickly to strengthen South Korea’s critical alliance with the United States and improve South Korean–Japanese ties despite political blowback at home. Yoon also dismantled Moon’s non-nuclear energy policy and enacted much stronger responses to North Korea’s continuing nuclear weapons program. From the onset of his presidency, he highlighted the importance of freedom, democracy, and human rights and became the first South Korean president to enact North Korean Defectors’ Day on July 14, 2024, to accentuate the abysmal human rights abuse in North Korea.

But Yoon failed to connect with ordinary Koreans and, contrary to his initial pledge, did not hold regular press conferences. His approval rating for the past two and a half years rarely went above 20 percent—an historical low for South Korean presidents since the restoration of democracy in 1987.8 Although his approval rating is likely to tank after the martial law fiasco, Yoon’s approval rate in a Gallup Korea poll released on November 1, 2024, already stood at a dismal 19 percent.9 He had little time or patience to listen to contrasting views, and his abiding political mindset was “my way or the highway.”

According to Yoon, it was necessary to declare martial law to remove pro-communist forces and to maintain constitutional law and order. He argued that the DP’s incessant opposition—such as countering his bills and policies, introducing multiple bills to impeach prosecutors who brought criminal charges against DP President Lee Jae-myung, and supporting efforts to impeach the Auditor General, a constitutionally mandated post—made it impossible to enact his duties as president.10

Nevertheless, there is no public support for Yoon’s misguided martial law fiasco even though many also believe that the DP shares responsibility for the dismal state of South Korean politics. Even without the martial law disaster, Yoon’s political capital going into 2025 was going to be diluted as presidential nominee hopefuls in his ruling PPP were planning to flex their muscles. The division within the ruling conservative party is going to become even more pronounced as the majority pro-Yoon faction among the 108 members of the PPP will find it impossible to defend the president’s actions. Key figures, such as party leader Han and Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon, will jockey for power within the ruling party: In fact, Han has called on Yoon to remove himself from the PPP in an ongoing effort to distance himself and the ruling party from Yoon. In a meeting with ruling party leaders on December 4, Han stated that “the decision to ask President Yoon to resign from the party was taken by the party’s leadership conference and I transmitted the party’s decision to Prime Minister Han and Presidential Chief of Staff Jeong Jin-seok during today’s meeting in the prime minister’s residence.”11

Regardless of whether the prime minister, the cabinet, and other high-level officials resign, it will not stem the loss of blood in the Yoon government. And even if the impeachment motion does not pass, it does not mean that Yoon’s ability to stay in office is going to improve. Indeed, regardless of the impeachment outcome, calls for his resignation are going to increase across the political spectrum, and the bureaucracy will wait on the sidelines.

The Race to Succeed Yoon

South Korean politics has always hovered around strong personalities rather than sturdy political parties built around contending factions. Yoon was not an exception, and neither is the DP president, Lee. Given his unwillingness to listen to contending views, Yoon is highly unlikely to resign from the presidency, and Lee will continue his battle to oust the president by all possible means. Although Yoon is facing an existential crisis, Lee is far from hitting multiple home runs. The combined opposition hold some 187 seats, led by the DP with 170 seats, while the PPP has 108 seats. Three political issues are going to remain at the top of the agenda.

First, how many members of the PPP will end up supporting Yoon’s impeachment? According to the constitution, a president can be impeached if two-thirds of the National Assembly members (or 225 votes out of 300) vote in the affirmative. Then the Constitutional Court deliberates on the merits of the case, and at least six justices must vote to impeach the president. While there are nine seats in the Constitutional Court, three remain vacant at the moment, which means that if an impeachment hearing reaches the court, there must be a unanimous decision by the justices to impeach Yoon.

As mentioned above, while an impeachment vote is scheduled to take place on December 7, the PPP has stated that they will oppose the impeachment motion. If the impeachment vote fails in the National Assembly, the combined opposition parties are likely to resubmit another impeachment motion over the next several weeks, although the PPP will continue to resist supporting Yoon’s impeachment. The reason why the PPP remains against impeachment is the trauma that continues to linger within the party from late 2016, when enough members voted with the opposition party to impeach former president Park Geun-hye. In March 2017, Park’s impeachment was finalized by the Constitutional Court, and she resigned immediately from the presidency.12

While the cases are different because Park never declared martial law, it remains uncertain whether the public will support another impeachment. But the net result is that at a minimum, throughout the first half of 2025, South Korean politics will be engulfed by the aftershocks of Yoon’s martial law disaster. Moreover, the impeachment of the auditor general on December 5 suggests that some members of the PPP voted in favor of the motion, thus leaving open the possibility of additional voting defections from the PPP.

Second, as pressure mounts within the PPP to distance itself from Yoon, struggles between the pro- and anti-Yoon factions will intensify, and Han will double his efforts to strengthen his grip on the party at a time of peril and to make sure that the PPP remains intact despite internal tensions. At the same time, however, even though Yoon and the PPP face enormous pressures, Lee and the DP are not automatically going to regain the presidency. Lee currently faces at least four separate criminal charges related to corruption and other criminal activity, including from when he was the mayor of Seongnam City. These cases are meandering through the courts and Lee has vowed to wait until the supreme court reaches the final verdict, which will take time.13

Third, for the conservatives, the challenge is going to be significantly more difficult than for the DP, because the PPP has to distance itself from Yoon as much as possible while resetting itself in order to nominate a viable presidential candidate in 2025. Although the next presidential election is scheduled to be held in March 2027, it is going to be extremely difficult for Yoon to finish his term due to mounting pressures to resign and to accept full responsibility for bulldozing through martial law when there was no apparent reason to do so. As a result, while it is theoretically possible for Yoon to remain in office, chances are very low.

The DP and party leader Lee are most likely preparing for Yoon to resign in order to maximize public discontent with the PPP, and for now, there is no one within the DP to challenge Lee’s leadership. Hence, Lee’s chances of winning the next presidential election are higher than ever before, although he also faces numerous hurdles. In the end, the vicious cycle of retributions, which have been an unfortunate hallmark of South Korean politics, is not likely to stop when this current crisis ebbs and a new president takes office. And such a development will only deepen the huge and vicious political divide between the left and the right in Korean politics and society.

Rising External Threats and Challenges

South Korea’s martial law fiasco could not have come at worse time given the range of external threats facing the country. After Russian President Valdimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed a new defense pact in June 2024, Kim opted to send between 11,000 and 12,000 North Korean soldiers to fight alongside Russian forces in the ongoing Ukraine war. The U.S. Department of Defense confirmed in early November 2024 that at least 10,000 North Korean troops were in Kursk Oblast.14 While accurate assessments of North Korean troop activities remain scarce, Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky stated in an interview with Kyodo News on December 1, 2024, that North Korean soldiers had died fighting for Russia, and he predicted that they would be ultimately used as “cannon fodder.”15

Ever since the Ukrainian war began, the South Korean government has refused to send offensive weapons to Ukraine, because it is illegal under the country’s laws to transfer weapons to war zones. But Seoul has sent critical munitions and other war material to the United States and key NATO allies such as Poland that have, in turn, supplied weapons to Ukraine. South Korea provided about $400 million in humanitarian and financial aid to Ukraine in 2024.16 The Yoon government has come under increasing pressure from the United States and Ukraine to supply a range of weapons systems, including artillery and air defense systems that were requested by Ukraine.17 More importantly for South Korean security, Russia may feel obliged to transfer more modern weapons to North Korea, such as advanced combat jets and missile technologies. According to South Korean intelligence assessments as reported in The Guardian on November 22, 2024, “Russia has sent air defence missiles and other military technology to North Korea in return for the deployment of troops from the North to support the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine.”18

Throughout 2024, North Korea hyped the possibility of war on the Korean Peninsula, and Kim Jong Un also declared the South as North Korea’s primary enemy and excluded all possibility of unification. Kim also stated on numerous occasions that North Korea would never give up its growing nuclear arsenal. In October 2024, Kim also threatened to use nuclear weapons to eliminate South Korea if North Korea was attacked. Kim stated that if North Korean sovereignty was encroached upon by the South, Pyongyang “would use without hesitation all the offensive forces it has possessed, including nuclear weapons . . . [and that] if such situation comes, the permanent existence of Seoul and the Republic of Korea would be impossible.”19

As U.S. President-Elect Donald Trump prepares to re-enter the White House, he has threatened to raise tariffs on all imported goods from Canada, Mexico, and China with an extra 10 percent tariff on goods from China.20 One researcher contextualizes this, saying, “this is on top of earlier threats of imposing 60% tariffs on China and a blanket tariff of 10% to 20% on other imports to the U.S.—a protectionist plan that could reshape the U.S. economy in ways that have little recent precedent.”21 For a major trading power such as South Korea with critical economic ties to both the United States and China, if Trump goes through with his promises to start a new trade war with China, it is going to have significant repercussions for South Korean exports to China and future South Korean investments in the United States.

In late November 2024, five Chinese and six Russian military aircraft entered South Korea’s air defense identification zone (KADIZ); although this is not South Korean airspace, South Korean Air Force jets scrambled for contingency operations.22 Russian and Chinese intrusions into KADIZ have occurred since 2019. With these mounting threats and the international pressure South Korea faces from various angles, fractured politics at the top will only weaken the government’s ability to respond decisively and win public approval for its response to external challenges. In a country that already faces very harsh geopolitical and economic challenges, the current political crisis only dilutes South Korea’s ability to forge more resilient foreign policies and to mitigate outstanding national security threats.

Rough Waters Ahead but Maintaining Viable National Security

However the current crisis ultimately wraps up, Yoon no longer has leverage given the convergence of problems he faces at home and abroad and his vanishing political capital. South Koreans are rightfully proud of the enormous achievements the country has made over the past forty years. It is not only an advanced manufacturing and trading power but also one of the most vibrant democracies in Asia. By declaring martial law and then rescinding it after the National Assembly voted to annul, however, Yoon dialed back South Korea’s growing positive global brand and handed over the political initiative to the opposition. It is way too early to forecast where and how the chips will fall, but South Koreans should bet on the resilience of their core institutions, protecting their democratic rights and liberties, and ensuring that key national security postures remain even in the midst of a wrenching political crisis.

In the end, Yoon can only blame himself for getting cornered, and he had two and a half years to prove his governance skills. As South Koreans brace for additional perturbations down the road, they have to remind themselves that democracy is always a work in progress. Cooler heads are needed now more than ever to minimize the fallout from another existential political crisis.

Notes

carnegieendowment.org



15.  Remembering David I. Steinberg



Rest in peace.



Remembering David I. Steinberg

https://keia.org/the-peninsula/remembering-david-i-steinberg/

Published December 10, 2024

Author: Scott Snyder

Category: Uncategorized



Asia specialist David I. Steinberg passed away on December 5, 2024, at the age of 96. David had deep roots in the DC-based community of Asianists with the Mansfield Center for Pacific Affairs and at Georgetown University. David’s wide-ranging responsibilities included over 25 years of service on the board of the Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI) from 1993 to 2018.

Trained in Chinese studies at Dartmouth College, Harvard University, and SOAS University of London in the 1950s, David lived and worked on the ground with The Asia Foundation in both Myanmar (1958-1962) and South Korea (1963-1968 and 1994-1998), where he met and married his wife, Ann Myungsook Lee, during his first tour in Korea.

Following his return to Washington, DC, David consulted for almost two decades during the 1970s and 1980s with the U.S. Agency for International Development, taught at Georgetown University for almost two decades in the 1990s and 2000s, and maintained a vast network of contacts through regular visits to both Myanmar and South Korea throughout his professional career. David was the author of 15 books and monographs and over 150 articles or chapters on politics and development in Asia, drawing on his extensive research and lived experience, in addition to providing his own insights on Korea’s culture and development in a regular Korea Times column published in the 1990s called Stone Mirror.

I first met David when I moved to Washington in the mid-1990s. Always avuncular, innately curious, and a consummate networker, David quickly became a mentor to me and anyone else in the Korea-watching community in DC. Only later did I realize that in befriending young and aspiring Korea watchers in DC, David was simply applying the same skills in Washington that had enabled him to be successful in identifying and developing talent and promoting social development and good governance in Myanmar and South Korea.

I saw the depth and breadth of David’s Korea network when I followed him to South Korea in the early 2000s as The Asia Foundation’s Korea representative. David would stop by the Asia Foundation’s Korea office periodically as part of his frequent tours to Asia, provide ideas and historical context, and explain to us what was really going on in the country beyond the newspaper headlines following a few meals and drinks with old friends he had made over decades. Those friends were elites from across South Korea’s political and social spectrum.

I recall a particularly generous introduction that David made on my behalf when I led preparations to commemorate The Asia Foundation’s 50th anniversary of the establishment of its office in Seoul in 2004. David introduced me to the internationally recognized artist Lee Dae-won, who had received grants early in his career from The Asia Foundation as part of its post-Korean War support for social development in the 1950s and whose art adorns many Korean government buildings today, including work displayed at the Korean Ambassador’s residence in Washington, DC.

David suggested to me that Lee might be willing to provide a limited-edition print of one of his paintings in commemoration of The Asia Foundation’s 50th anniversary in South Korea. I was nervous about making such a request to someone upon my first meeting and was thrilled that he expressed his willingness to make such a contribution during our meeting at his studio. What I did not know until later was that David and Lee were old drinking buddies who had been meeting at the Josun Hotel bar for decades. This was classic David Steinberg: present in the moment, constructive and effective, and giving the spotlight to others. After all, in both Myanmar and South Korea, he was not only a witness to history but also tried to be a constructive influence on it.

With the passing of David Steinberg, South Koreans have lost a great friend, supporter, and cheerleader for South Korea’s rapid development and democratization. He exemplified the qualities that he identified during The Asia Foundation Korea office’s anniversary commemoration as its distinctive approach to supporting South Korea’s political and economic development based on “mutual respect, empathy, consideration, and commitment.” I believe David exemplified that approach, and it is rightfully part of his legacy.

 

Scott Snyder is President & CEO at the Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI). The views expressed are the author’s alone.

Photo from the Asia Foundation.

KEI is registered under the FARA as an agent of the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, a public corporation established by the government of the Republic of Korea. Additional information is available at the Department of Justice, Washington, D.C.




16. Police face delays in raid of presidential office


Should the political process or the legal process take priority here when it comes to the President?



(3rd LD) Police face delays in raid of presidential office | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Haye-ah · December 11, 2024

(ATTN: UPDATES with standoff between police, presidential security service; CHANGES headline, photo)

By Lee Haye-ah

SEOUL, Dec. 11 (Yonhap) -- Police faced delays in raiding the presidential office Wednesday after the presidential security service refused to cooperate with their investigation into President Yoon Suk Yeol's alleged insurrection through his brief imposition of martial law last week.

A team of 18 investigators arrived at the presidential office compound shortly before noon to search for material related to the martial law decree, including records of a Cabinet meeting held shortly before Yoon announced the order on Dec. 3, according to the National Investigation Office of the National Police Agency (NPA).

As of 4 p.m., however, the investigators had yet to enter the presidential office building as talks were ongoing with the presidential security service over how the raid would be conducted.


Police investigators enter the presidential office compound in Seoul on Dec. 11, 2024, to search the office building for material related to President Yoon Suk Yeol's short-lived imposition of martial law last week. (Pool photo) (Yonhap)

A warrant for the search listed Yoon as the suspect, and the president's office, the Cabinet meeting room, the Presidential Security Service and the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) building as subjects of the raid.

The JCS headquarters are located on the same compound, and the martial law command used the basement as its situation room during the six hours that martial law was enforced. Police were attempting to enter the building to seize material related to its operations.

Earlier reports said Yoon was not inside the presidential office building at the time of the attempted raid, but it later became unclear as those reports could not be confirmed.

Yoon has been named a suspect on charges of insurrection and mutiny. He has also been barred from leaving the country, becoming the first sitting president to be slapped with an exit ban.

Police suspect Yoon masterminded the alleged insurrection.

Army Special Warfare Commander Lt. Gen. Kwak Jong-keun told lawmakers Tuesday he was ordered by Yoon to drag out lawmakers from inside the National Assembly building to stop them from repealing the martial law order last week.

Law enforcement officials have also left open the possibility of placing Yoon under emergency arrest without a warrant given the gravity of insurrection, a crime that carries a penalty of up to death.

Police also raided the offices of the NPA, the Seoul Metropolitan Police Agency (SMPA) and the National Assembly Police Guards on Wednesday.

The search followed the emergency arrests of NPA chief Cho Ji-ho and SMPA chief Kim Bong-sik in the early hours of the day.

hague@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Haye-ah · December 11, 2024



17. Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 10, 2024 (and north Korea)


Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 10, 2024

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-10-2024

Russia's force posture around Syria continues to reflect the Kremlin's current cautious and indecisive response to the fall of Bashar al Assad's regime. Sentinel-2 satellite imagery from December 10 shows that Russian ships have still not returned to Syria's Port of Tartus and that the Russian Mediterranean Sea Flotilla is still in a holding pattern about eight to 15km away from Tartus. Open-source analyst MT Anderson identified four Russian ships within this radius as of December 10—the Admiral Golovko Gorshkov-class frigate, the Admiral Grigorovich Grigorovich-class frigate, the Novorossiysk Improved Kilo-class submarine, and the Vyazma Kaliningradneft-class oiler. Satellite imagery from December 9 indicated that the Admiral Grigorovich, Novorossiysk, and Vyazma were in the same holding pattern as they are as of December 10. Other open-source analysts noted that the Baltic Fleet's Alexander Shabalin Project 775 large landing ship exited the Baltic Sea maritime zone on December 10, potentially to facilitate the removal of some Russian military assets from Tartus to the Mediterranean (potentially Tobruk, Libya). A Russian milblogger claimed that as of the end of the day on December 9 "the status of Hmeimim (Air Base) and Tartus is up in the air," and Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov emphasized that it is "difficult to predict" what will happen in Syria but that Russia will continue a dialogue with all countries that share interests with Russia. Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on December 10 that Russian forces are still disassembling equipment and weapons and removing troops from Hmeimim in An-124 and Il-76 military transport aircraft and are "dismantling" equipment at Tartus under the supervision of recently-deployed Russian Spetsnaz. Maxar satellite imagery from December 10 shows that Russian aircraft, helicopters, and associated military equipment remain in place at the Hmeimim Air Base (see embedded imagery below). The continued lack of a coherent Russian response, both in terms of military posture and rhetorical overtures, suggests that the Kremlin is still waiting to formulate a path forward in Syria as it observes the situation on the ground. The Kremlin is very likely hesitant to completely evacuate all military assets from Syria in the event that it can establish a relationship with Syrian opposition forces and the transitional government and continue to ensure the security of its basing and personnel in Syria.


Russia intends to supply North Korea with fighter jets amid growing military partnership between the two countries. US Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM) commander Admiral Samuel Paparo revealed on December 10 that Russia and North Korea struck a deal in which Russia agreed to send MiG-29 and Su-27 fighter aircraft to Pyongyang in exchange for North Korea deploying troops to Russia to support Russia's war in Ukraine. Paparo highlighted that North Korea's receipt of these aircraft will enhance its military capabilities and that Pyongyang likely expects additional military equipment and technologies from Russia, including ballistic missile reentry vehicles, submarine technologies, and air defense systems, as part of the agreement. Paparo noted that North Korean soldiers remain in combat zones, likely in reference to Kursk Oblast, but are not yet actively fighting. South Korean network TV Chosun published an exclusive report on October 21 stating that North Korea dispatched an unspecified number of fighter pilots to Vladivostok before the deployment of ground troops to Russia in early October likely in an effort to train its pilots to fly Russian fighter jets. North Korean pilots are trained on Russian Su-25 attack aircraft (which are already part of the Korean People's Army [KPA] Air Force fleet) further indicating that a Russian delivery of fighter jets will benefit and expand North Korea's military capabilities, especially in the air domain. ISW continues to assess that military cooperation between Russia and North Korea has particularly intensified since the two countries signed their Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in June 2024, and especially since it entered into force on December 4.


Key Takeaways:


  • Russia's force posture around Syria continues to reflect the Kremlin's current cautious and indecisive response to the fall of Bashar al Assad's regime.


  • Russia intends to supply North Korea with fighter jets amid a growing military partnership between the two countries.


  • Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh in Moscow on December 10 as India continues efforts to balance military technical cooperation with Russia and maintain good relations with key Western allies.


  • Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Vuhledar direction, and Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk and Kharkiv oblasts and in the Svatove, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Vuhledar, and Velyka Novosilka directions.


  • The Russian government continues efforts to formalize irregular Russian military units and veterans from the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics army corps (DNR and LNR ACs) and formally integrate them under the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).


  • Russia continues to utilize Western-produced high-tech components in Russian weapons systems despite Western sanctions against Russia and cobelligerent states.


  • A Russian insider source who has previously correctly predicted command changes within the Russian MoD claimed on December 9 that Russian President Vladimir Putin promoted the Russian Deputy Defense Minister, Pavel Fradkov, to the rank of Major General.






18. North Korea Says Yoon Has Caused ‘Pandemonium’ in South Korea


It looks like KJU will use this to try to reinforce his legitimacy by showing the South's domestic political turmoil. 


South korea and international information campaigns should use this to educate the Korean people in the north abou democracy, its reliance, and the power of the people. I can find opportunities in every event no matter how bad it seems right now.



North Korea Says Yoon Has Caused ‘Pandemonium’ in South Korea

In its first statement about the turmoil over President Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law decree, the North said nothing about how inter-Korean relations might be affected.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/10/world/asia/north-korea-martial-law-reaction.html


Protesters outside the National Assembly in Seoul on Saturday, hours before a bid to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol failed.Credit...Chang W. Lee/The New York Times


By Choe Sang-Hun

Reporting from Seoul

Published Dec. 10, 2024

Updated Dec. 11, 2024, 2:02 a.m. ET



North Korea made its first public statement on Wednesday about the short-lived declaration of martial law in South Korea last week, with its state media saying that President Yoon Suk Yeol had plunged his country into “pandemonium.”

The article gave no indication of how the turmoil in the South might affect relations between the Koreas. Since Mr. Yoon, who has a confrontational policy toward North Korea, took office in 2022, the relationship has reached its lowest point in years.

The North’s main government newspaper, the Rodong Sinmun, gave the article relatively little prominence, running it on the sixth page of its Wednesday edition. It summarized Mr. Yoon’s failed attempt to seize control of the National Assembly on Dec. 3 by sending in troops, the spread of protests across South Korea and the political uncertainty that has prevailed since then.

“The puppet Yoon Suk Yeol’s shocking decision to level his fascist guns and bayonets at his own people has turned the puppet South into pandemonium,” the article said.


It also said that the failure of opposition lawmakers’ attempt to impeach Mr. Yoon in the National Assembly on Saturday, after Mr. Yoon’s People Power Party boycotted the vote, had turned all of South Korea into a “protest scene.”

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The political vacuum in the South has raised concerns that its government and military could be ill-prepared for any escalation in tensions with Kim Jong-un’s regime in the North.

In recent months, North Korea has sent thousands of balloons laden with trash into the South, while South Korea responded with propaganda broadcast over loudspeakers at the border. Mr. Kim has declared that the North is no longer interested in the reunification of the Korean Peninsula, calling the South an enemy that must be subjugated, with nuclear weapons if necessary.

The South Korean opposition plans to try to impeach Mr. Yoon again on Saturday. If he is impeached, he will be immediately suspended from office until the Constitutional Court decides whether to reinstate or formally oust him. If the court removes him, South Korea will hold a national election to select a new leader.

Mr. Yoon, a conservative, has been unpopular since he took office. His removal would improve progressives’ chances of returning to power in South Korea. The progressives, like Mr. Yoon’s predecessor Moon Jae-in, favor dialogue and reconciliation with the North, while conservatives champion sanctions and pressure. Both camps rely on the United States, the South’s military ally, to help defend their country.


South Korea’s Constitution allows the president to proclaim martial law in times of “war, armed conflict or similar national emergency,” but it also gives the National Assembly the power to override such a decree with a majority vote.

In an interview with The New York Times on Monday, Lee Jae-myung, the leader of the main opposition Democratic Party, said that he and his party had informally discussed what to do if Mr. Yoon were to instigate an armed conflict with North Korea and use it as a pretext to declare martial law. Mr. Lee said that risk would exist as long as Mr. Yoon stayed in power, although Mr. Yoon has said he would never again declare martial law.

The impeachment bill that failed last week, which was hurriedly put together by the opposition parties, accused Mr. Yoon of antagonizing North Korea, China and Russia. It also criticized what it called Mr. Yoon’s “strange” policy on Japan. Mr. Yoon’s critics have accused him of improving ties with Japan, which once ruled Korea as a colony, at the risk of the nation’s pride and its interests.

Mr. Lee, the opposition leader, said that including Mr. Yoon’s external policies in the impeachment bill had been a mistake and was not his party’s idea. He said that in a revised bill, the reference to Mr. Yoon’s foreign policies would be removed.

Choe Sang-Hun is the lead reporter for The Times in Seoul, covering South and North Korea. More about Choe Sang-Hun


De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
 
 
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161


If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."
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