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Quotes of the Day:
"People try to do all sorts of clever and difficult things to improve life instead of doing the simplest, easiest thing – refusing to participate in activities that make life bad."
- Leo Tolstoy
The American's Creed
"I believe in the United States of America as a government of the People, by the People, for the People; whose just powers are derived from the consent of the governed; a Democracy in a Republic, a sovereign Nation of many sovereign States; a perfect Union, one and inseparable; established upon those principles of Freedom, Equality, Justice, and Humanity for which American Patriots sacrificed their lives and fortunes. I therefore believe it is my Duty to my Country to Love it, to Support its Constitution; to Obey its Laws; to Respect its Flag; and to Defend it against all enemies."
- William Tyler Page
(The Creed was written by William Tyler Page of
Friendship Heights, Maryland in the course of a
nationwide contest on the subject.
Page was a descendent of President Tyler, and
Representative John Page, who served in the
Congress from 1789-97. He began his government
career as a Congressional page in December of
1881. In 1919, he was elected Clerk of the House of
Representatives, and held that position until
December of 1931 when a new post, Emeritus
Minority Clerk, was then created for him which he
occupied until his death on October 20, 1942._
“It is in truth not for glory, nor riches, nor honors that we are fighting, but for freedom alone, which no honest man gives up but with his life.”
- The Declaration of Arbroath, 1320
1. S. Korea, U.S. stage combined air drills involving America's B-52H bombers, F-22 fighters
2. NK leader's sister dismisses doubts about N. Korea's satellite, ICBM technologies
3. North Korea to Finish Preparations for Spy Satellite by April
4. N. Korea warns of 'actual action' against Japan's counterstrike capability policy
5. Rights watchdog welcomes passage of N. Korean human rights resolution
6. U.S., Japan to revise guidelines for defense cooperation
7. North Korea's record-setting missile tests are showing off weapons it has tried to keep hidden for decades
8. In 1996, A North Korean Submarine Nearly Sparked a War
9. Inside N. Korea’s Internet-based foreign currency-earning activities
10. U.S. F-22s in Korea for training near Jeju with Korean, U.S aircraft
11. N. Korean air force commander executed for failing to properly maintain drones
12. Kim Yo-jong goes ballistic as South pooh-poohs latest launch
13. Hanwha Systems to develop NATO-compliant secure radio network
14. Korea needs preemptive measures against Japan's new security strategy
15. Making a big deal is unrealistic to denuclearize North Korea
16. Ep.24 David Maxwell: Recalibrating Deterrence Against an Evolving DPRK Nuclear Threat
1. S. Korea, U.S. stage combined air drills involving America's B-52H bombers, F-22 fighters
Kim Jong Un conducts provocations to try to drive a wedge in the ROK/US alliance and weaken it (among other objectives such obtaining political and economic concessions). But instead of weakening the alliance, in 2022 the alliance just keeps getting stronger. Kim Jong Un's strategy is failing.
(2nd LD) S. Korea, U.S. stage combined air drills involving America's B-52H bombers, F-22 fighters | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · December 20, 2022
(ATTN: RECASTS headline, lead; CHANGES photo)
By Song Sang-ho
SEOUL, Dec. 20 (Yonhap) -- South Korea and the United States conducted combined air drills, involving U.S. B-52 strategic bombers and F-22 stealth fighters, on Tuesday, in an effort to strengthen the credibility of America's "extended deterrence," Seoul's defense ministry said.
The drills took place in the South's air defense identification zone southwest of its southern island of Jeju amid tensions caused by the North's launch of two medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBM) on Sunday.
The South's F-35A stealth jets and F-15K fighters also joined the drills.
The training session contributed to enhancing interoperability between the allied forces and strengthening their operational capabilities as the two countries' newest-generation fighters practiced procedures to escort and protect the bomber, a key U.S. strategic asset, according to the ministry.
This week, the F-22 jets from Kadena Air Base in Okinawa, Japan, are to deploy to Kunsan Air Base in Gunsan, 275 kilometers south of Seoul. They are to engage in separate drills with the South's F-35A jets to strengthen capabilities to respond to the North's nuclear and missile threats, the ministry said.
The U.S. F-22 jets previously visited the South for air drills in 2018.
"The deployment of the B-52H and F-22 fighters this time is part of an effort to reinforce the credibility of the U.S.' extended deterrence," the ministry said in a press release.
Extended deterrence refers to the U.S.' commitment to using a full range of its military capabilities, including nuclear, to defend its ally.
The ministry made the remarks referring to an agreement from the allies' defense ministerial talks last month to increase the frequency and intensity in the deployment of U.S. strategic assets to the Korean Peninsula.
"The South and the U.S. will further solidify the combined defense posture of the South Korea-U.S. alliance regarding the North's nuclear and missile threats by continuing to strengthen the alliance's capabilities and posture, including the U.S.' extended deterrence," the ministry said.
The South Korean military described Sunday's missile launch by the North as that of MRBMs. But the North claimed the launch was part of a reconnaissance satellite development effort.
The launch was conducted at the North's key western rocket launch site in Tongchang-ri, where the North claimed to have tested a "high-thrust solid-fuel" rocket motor last week to develop another "new-type strategic weapon system."
The motor test was seen as part of Pyongyang's push to develop a solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile, which takes less launch preparation time than a liquid-fuel one that requires fuel injection and other procedures.
sshluck@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · December 20, 2022
2. NK leader's sister dismisses doubts about N. Korea's satellite, ICBM technologies
The dragon lady speaks. This is an indication the regime is sensitive to our criticism and satire of their new capability.
More important than their "satellite imagery" is the development of a re-entry capability. She alludes to the development of that capability as well as an upcoming ICBM test that may go for distance rather than "loft."
Excerpts:
She also condemned those who question whether the North has mastered the atmospheric reentry technology for its intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).
North Korea has fired eight ICBMs so far this year at lofted angles, including the Nov. 18 launch of a Hwasong-17 ICBM. Outside experts believe the North does not appear to have secured the technology to allow warheads to withstand the intense heat during atmospheric reentry.
"To explain to them who have no common sense, we could not receive remote data of the control warhead until it hit a target if the technology for atmospheric re-entry was imperfect," Kim said.
She hinted at the possibility that the North will fire an ICBM at a normal angle for the verification of its related technology.
"They will immediately recognize it in case we launch an ICBM in the way of real angle firing straight off," she said. "I think that they would be well advised to halt their nonsense and think twice."
(3rd LD) NK leader's sister dismisses doubts about N. Korea's satellite, ICBM technologies | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · December 20, 2022
(ATTN: UPDATES throughout with KCNA's English-language statement, background)
SEOUL, Dec. 20 (Yonhap) -- The sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un issued a statement Tuesday criticizing those who question the secretive regime's assertion of having made significant progress in its satellite and long-range ballistic missile development.
Kim Yo-jong, vice department director of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea, took issue with a view among experts in the outside world, including those in South Korea, that low-resolution, black-and-white images of Seoul and Incheon, released by Pyongyang the previous day, are too crude to be satellite photos.
"So-called experts were so keen on finding fault with others that they could not but make such senseless words," she said in the English-language statement carried by the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
The North claimed its "important, final-stage test of rockets Sunday was part of its military reconnaissance satellite project and made public those two photos, presumed to be taken from a mock satellite.
Some experts here soon said the quality of the imagery is too poor.
Kim said it is "inadequate and imprudent" to assess the North's satellite development capabilities and relevant preparations with the two photos alone.
She also condemned those who question whether the North has mastered the atmospheric reentry technology for its intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).
North Korea has fired eight ICBMs so far this year at lofted angles, including the Nov. 18 launch of a Hwasong-17 ICBM. Outside experts believe the North does not appear to have secured the technology to allow warheads to withstand the intense heat during atmospheric reentry.
"To explain to them who have no common sense, we could not receive remote data of the control warhead until it hit a target if the technology for atmospheric re-entry was imperfect," Kim said.
She hinted at the possibility that the North will fire an ICBM at a normal angle for the verification of its related technology.
"They will immediately recognize it in case we launch an ICBM in the way of real angle firing straight off," she said. "I think that they would be well advised to halt their nonsense and think twice."
Kim Yo-jong, the de facto No. 2 figure under the Kim Jong-un regime, has issued hard-worded statements on inter-Korean affairs and other external issues.
#shorts
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · December 20, 2022
3. North Korea to Finish Preparations for Spy Satellite by April
North Korea to Finish Preparations for Spy Satellite by April
Bloomberg · by Sangmi Cha · December 18, 2022
- Kim Jong Un’s regime claims new advances in space technology
- Pyongyang has used such tests to improve missile program
BySangmi Cha
December 18, 2022 at 6:18 PM ESTUpdated onDecember 19, 2022 at 12:00 AM EST
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-18/north-korea-to-finish-preparations-for-spy-satellite-by-april?sref=hhjZtX76
North Korea said it carried out the final tests of a military spy satellite, publishing a pair of black-and-white overhead images of South Korea’s capital region in an attempt to show the device worked.
The country announced the breakthrough via state media Monday, a day after South Korea said its rival lobbed at least two suspected medium-range ballistic missiles through space and into the sea. While North Korea described a single rocket launch with a similar flight path Sunday, it said the vehicle released a demonstration satellite carrying various cameras and transmitters.
This image supplied by North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency shows a test of a rocket with the test satellite at the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground on Dec. 18.Source: Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service/AP
The pictures released by the Korean Central News Agency covered much of Seoul and the adjacent port of Incheon and included an area where South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol’s office is located. They had a resolution of 20 meters, KCNA said, far less detailed than the 0.5 meters standard that experts say is typical for modern military applications.
“The technology looks like what South Korea had in the start of its satellite development in 1990s,” said Bang Hyo-choong, who teaches spacecraft flight dynamics and control at Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology. “What’s important is how much they can zoom in and whether their technology is advanced enough to discern roads and buildings.”
The authenticity of the images couldn’t immediately be confirmed. Leader Kim Jong Un has gone to great lengths to convince the world of his military achievements, apparently launching an older intercontinental ballistic missile earlier this year to pass off the failure of a new model as a success in a video.
North Korea has in the past used space activities to obscure the development of its nuclear missile program, because sending a satellite into space and lobbing a warhead to another continent relies on much the same technology. Sunday’s rocket launch coincided with the 10th anniversary of Pyongyang’s test of its “Shining Star” Earth-observation satellite.
“That ended up a dud in orbit, so this photo shows how much the program and its launch capabilities have improved in the decade,” Martyn Williams, a fellow with the Washington-based Stimson Center think tank, said on Twitter.
The new satellite project is on track for completion in April, KNCA said, a month when North Korea often marks the birthday of its founder, Kim Il Sung, with parades and other displays of military might. Kim has stepped up the development of his nuclear weapons program this year, launching a record number of ballistic missiles, while refusing US President Joe Biden’s overtures to resume talks.
American officials are concerned North Korea is seeking to develop an ICBM with multiple warheads in a bid to overwhelm missile defense systems. Describing such tests as satellite launches could reduce pressure on China to take a stronger stand at the United Nations, where Washington has been urging Beijing and Moscow to support additional sanctions.
The two missiles South Korea said were launched Sunday were fired off from a site near the Sohae Satellite Launching Ground, where the regime also tested a new solid-fuel rocket engine last week. Solid-fuel missiles are quicker to deploy and easier to hide, giving the US and its allies less time to see signs of a launch and prepare interceptors.
The reconnaissance satellite project North Korea’s National Aerospace Development Administration conducted was intended to “evaluate the capabilities of satellite photography and data-transmission system and ground-control system,” KCNA said.
The resolution of the photos North Korea released may seem low now, but Pyongyang wants to show that it’s capable of detecting signs of any preemptive strikes from allied bases, said Lim Eul-chul, a professor at Kyungnam University’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies in Seoul.
“They must have already taken shots of South Korea throughout, but it might look too explicit to release images of areas with military bases at the moment,” Lim said. “That’s why they chose to unveil images of Seoul and other areas instead.”
— With assistance by Shinhye Kang and Seyoon Kim
4. N. Korea warns of 'actual action' against Japan's counterstrike capability policy
Bluster? Another missile launch? An ICBM over Japan?
But again this is another indication that Kim 's strategy is failing. Rather than weakening potential adversaries Kim's actions are making them stronger.
(LEAD) N. Korea warns of 'actual action' against Japan's counterstrike capability policy | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · December 20, 2022
(ATTN: UPDATES throughout with details; ADDS photo)
SEOUL, Dec. 20 (Yonhap) -- North Korea accused Japan on Tuesday of having formalized its invasion-oriented security strategy, which revolves around enemy base "counterstrike capability," and warned of "actual action" in response.
Pyongyang's foreign ministry said in a statement that Tokyo is triggering a grave security threat to the region by adopting the new policy of acquiring the ability to carry out preemptive strikes against other nations.
Due to the move, security conditions in East Asia have changed fundamentally and Japan will get to realize that it has made a "wrong and very dangerous choice," an unnamed spokesperson for the ministry said in the statement carried by the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
"In response to Japan's move to realize unjust and excessive ambition, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) will continue to show how much we are concerned and displeased with actual action," the official said, without specifying what that action would be.
Last Friday, Japan's Cabinet endorsed a key security document on the "counterstrike capability" that would pave the way for the country to launch a counterattack should it and its ally, the U.S., come under attack, possibly from the North.
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · December 20, 2022
5. Rights watchdog welcomes passage of N. Korean human rights resolution
Again, the ROK really seems to be prioritizing human rights in north Korea.
Rights watchdog welcomes passage of N. Korean human rights resolution | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 김한주 · December 20, 2022
By Kim Han-joo
SEOUL, Dec. 20 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's national rights watchdog on Tuesday welcomed the passage of a United Nations resolution calling for international efforts to improve human rights conditions in North Korea.
For the 18th consecutive year, the U.N. General Assembly adopted the resolution that expresses concern over dire human rights conditions in North Korea and what it calls illegal detention, torture and execution of foreign nationals in the country.
Song Doo-hwan, chief of the National Human Rights Commission, said in a statement that the resolution "reflects the international community's common perception about the seriousness of human rights in North Korea."
The resolution, co-sponsored by South Korea for the first time in four years, also calls on Pyongyang to immediately release all related information to the families and countries of foreign nationals detained in the North.
Song called for the North to provide clear answers to such calls and engage in more constructive talks with the international community.
khj@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 김한주 · December 20, 2022
6. U.S., Japan to revise guidelines for defense cooperation
In my conversations with Japanese officials over the years I have noted they have always envied the bilateral command in Korea which is the gold standard for a military alliance. But most did not think it was appropriate for Japan or even doable.
If such a command is established in Japan it will be a game changer for the Japan-US alliance.
This is the first report I have seen of this and I may be reading too much into it.
U.S., Japan to revise guidelines for defense cooperation
donga.com
Posted December. 20, 2022 07:34,
Updated December. 20, 2022 07:34
U.S., Japan to revise guidelines for defense cooperation. December. 20, 2022 07:34. sanghun@donga.com.
While the U.S. and Japan are expected to begin revising the guidelines for defense cooperation under Japan's stipulation of ‘enemy counterstrike capabilities,’ Japanese media reported that military integration between the two countries would take place.
Japan's Jiji Press said on Monday that on the occasion of revising three major security documents, including the National Security Strategy, the country will start full-fledged discussions with the U.S. "It is expected to complement the U.S. military deterrence against China and North Korea, but the U.S.-Japan integration will also proceed further." The integration of the U.S.-Japan military means that the U.S. military and the Japanese Self-Defense Forces move like virtually one military force in the wake of Japan's possession of the "enemy base attack capability."
Japan has established an integrated command that will lead the Self-Defense Forces comprehensively and is pushing for a reorganization of the Self-Defense Forces so that the integrated commander could coordinate with the U.S. military on force employment. Unlike South Korea, where the ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command is located, Japan has never had an official organization to lead the defense capabilities of the U.S. and Japan because the Self-Defense Forces are not official troops.
The U.S. is welcoming in that this can ease the burden of protecting security in East Asia. However, even conservatives in Japan raised concerns that Japan could unexpectedly be embroiled in a war due to its ability to attack enemy bases for deterrence.
한국어
donga.com
7. North Korea's record-setting missile tests are showing off weapons it has tried to keep hidden for decades
This is mostly about the development of an SLBM capability.
But It could be another indication of Kim Jong Un's failed strategy. He has to show off weapons he had previously kept hidden because he is not obtaining the political and economic concessions he is demanding through his blackmail diplomacy. He may be pulling out all the stops to try to coerce the ROK and US into providing concessions.
North Korea's record-setting missile tests are showing off weapons it has tried to keep hidden for decades
Business Insider · by Michael Peck
A missile is launched out of a North Korea lake in a photo released on October 10.
KCNA via REUTERS
- In October, North Korea claimed that it had launched an underwater ballistic missile from a lake.
- It may have been a stunt, but it reflects Pyongyang's long history of subterranean activity.
- That underground focus is meant to hide North Korea's military advances from the US and its allies.
North Korea's recent missile tests could have borrowed from the plot of a James Bond film.
In October, North Korea claimed that it had launched an underwater ballistic missile from a lake. Photos released by North Korea appeared to show a missile rising from a lake or reservoir.
State media reported that North Korea leader Kim Jong Un was personally supervising a series of missile tests, including of a missile reportedly launched from an inland body of water in the northwestern part of the country.
The utility of an underwater-launched ICBM is questionable, but whether it was a test of an actual technology or a propaganda stunt, it is the latest in North Korea's long obsession with hiding its weapons underground — or, in this case, under water.
Bruce Bennett, an expert on North Korea at the RAND Corporation think tank, believes that rather some kind of underwater missile silo, Pyongyang might actually have used a barge.
A missile launch from a North Korean lake in a photo released on October 10.
KCNA via REUTERS
"For a long time, North Korea has had a barge used for ballistic-missile test launches at sea when an appropriate submarine was not available and the North wanted to test a submarine-launched ballistic missile," Bennett told Insider. "While we do not know for sure what the North did to launch a missile from a lake, I suspect that they built a similar barge and used it for the lake launch."
An underwater missile launcher in an inland lake does offer advantages. It would complicate planning for any US and South Korean strike. The exact location of the launcher must be pinpointed and then the attacker "would need a warhead that could penetrate through the atmosphere and then into the water, which would be another difficult task," Bennett said.
But the challenges of building an underwater missile base "would be a difficult and costly effort," Bennett added. North Korea would have to build the site and a launcher and send a ship to lower the missile into it, all without being detected.
Maintenance would also be a nightmare. "The North would need to be able to make electrical and communications connections in the water and maintain the missile in the water, unless the North developed some procedure for pumping the silo dry," Bennett said.
The entrance to an "intrusion tunnel" under the DMZ between South and North Korea in September 2006.
ERIC WISHART/AFP via Getty Images
Underwater missile sites may be a boondoggle and may not exist outside of North Korean propaganda, but Pyongyang has a history of underground projects, from subterranean factories for building missiles and nuclear bombs to tunnels under the Demilitarized Zone wide enough to send tanks to pop up behind South Korean lines.
The North Koreans have good reason for turning into moles. During the Korean War, UN forces used airpower to relentlessly pound North Korean troops, emplacements, and supply lines.
Should war erupt today, US and South Korean forces would hammer the North with precision-guided munitions, including huge bunker-buster bombs. While the North does have an enormous, if old, arsenal of Cold War-era artillery and tanks, it can't win a straight-up firepower battle with its much more technologically advanced foes.
But what North Korea can do is dig … and dig.
Its artillery is concealed in caves, from which it emerges to fire and then ducks back under cover. Its ballistic missiles, perhaps armed with nuclear warheads, are protected inside mountain tunnels from which their mobile launchers can roll out and fire. Its nuclear weapons development and test sites are shielded behind thick rock.
A North Korean soldier outside a tunnel at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site in May 2018.
News1-Dong-A Ilbo via Getty Images
Add in tunnels for troops and civil defense and the nation of North Korea seems to be one big underground facility, or UGF, as the Pentagon calls them.
Their size and sophistication range from small tunnels only large enough for people or a few vehicles to large, complex UGFs for command and control, missiles, and other strategic assets, according to the US Defense Intelligence Agency's 2021 report on North Korean military power.
Bennett suspects Pyongyang is bluffing about underwater missile bases: "We know from the past that the North will occasionally falsely claim some new capability, trying to appear to be more capable or less vulnerable than it really is."
But such bluffing has worked before. North Korea — which is so poor and so isolated that its people have eaten grass to avoid starvation and its regime survives on peddling narcotics overseas and on cybertheft — continues to threaten its neighbors, vowing to turn Seoul into a "sea of fire" with artillery and launching scores of missiles into nearby waters, including 23 on a single day in November.
One reason the Kim regime is still around, unlike despots in Iraq or Libya, is that the world doesn't quite know how many weapons of mass destruction it has or where it keeps them. That makes an invasion or preemptive strike chancy, which is exactly what Pyongyang wants. It may be a crazy dictatorship, but it's not totally irrational.
Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds a master's in political science. Follow him on Twitter and LinkedIn.
Business Insider · by Michael Peck
8. In 1996, A North Korean Submarine Nearly Sparked a War
This was quite an event. I remember it well. I think the headline is a little hyperbolic. I do not think it nearly sparked a war. That said, some of our ROK brothers did want to conduct a decisive kinetic response. That could have led to escalation.
Not mentioned in this report was the behind the scenes role played by SOCKOR and specifically the NCOs of the Special Forces Detachment Korea (SFD-K) (now known as the 39th Special Forces Detachment) who advised and assisted ROK forces and integrated US ISR assets..
In 1996, A North Korean Submarine Nearly Sparked a War
19fortyfive.com · by Eli Fuhrman · December 19, 2022
Crises on the Korean Peninsula often appear to be sparked by overt acts of provocation or aggression by North Korea, including artillery bombardments targeting the South to tests of the DPRK’s growing ballistic missile arsenal.
The threat of violence on the Korean Peninsula stems not just from the overt, however, but also from the covert. In addition to its high profile conventional and strategic capabilities, North Korea also has at its disposal a large submarine fleet as well as an elite special operations force, and the employment of either or both of these capabilities can result in the outbreak of violence on the peninsula. The 1996 Gangneung submarine infiltration incident serves as a stark reminder of this possibility.
Gangneung Submarine Crisis: How It Began
North Korea has frequently employed special operations forces to infiltrate the South. This tactic reached its heyday in the late 1960s during a period of sustained low-intensity conflict between the North and the South, and included an attempted raid on the South Korean Blue House as well as the insertion of a sizeable guerilla force in a failed attempt to instigate a communist uprising in the South. In the years since, North Korea has continued to send operatives into the South, occasionally sparking clashes with South Korean security forces.
In September 1996, North Korea inserted three special operations soldiers via submarine near the city of Gangneung. When the submarine later returned to pick up the operators, it found that they were not present at the predetermined position, and during a subsequent attempt to recover the soldiers the submarine ran aground only 20 meters offshore, forcing the crew to disembark and set fire to the interior of the vessel.
While on the beach, the submarine crew was spotted by a passing South Korean civilian. South Korean authorities launched what would become a 49-day-long manhunt involving over 40,000 South Korean soldiers, who described warzone-like conditions during the operation. Shortly after the operation began, South Korean forces located the bodies of 11 of the submarine’s crew, and posited that one of the crewmembers had killed his compatriots before turning the gun on himself, while a twelfth member of the crew was taken into custody. Based on the interrogation of the captured crewmember, South Korean authorities were able to place the total number of North Koreans involved in the mission at 26 and were also alerted to the presence of the North Korean special forces troops, while also confirming that the purpose of the mission was intelligence collection against South Korean air and naval bases. Over the next two weeks, the remaining 11 submarine crewmembers were located and killed in a series of firefights with South Korean security personnel. Several weeks later, two of the three North Korean commandos were located and killed less than 10 miles from the border with North Korea, while the third member of the team is believed to have successfully evaded capture and returned to the North. Of the 26 North Koreans involved in the mission, 24 were killed and one was captured, while a total of 16 South Korean soldiers and civilians were killed with an additional 27 wounded.
Significance
While the gangneung submarine incident could have sparked larger conflict on the Korean Peninsula, cooler heads prevailed. North Korea issued a statement of “deep regret” over the incident and pledged to take steps to ensure that such incidents did not occur again in the future, while South Korea returned the remains of the 24 North Koreans killed during the manhunt. The incident remains significant, however, to the extent that it demonstrates how quickly events on the Korean Peninsula can escalate to violence.
The troops involved in the incident likely belonged to the DPRK’s Reconnaissance Bureau, the same organization from which the units involved in the attempted attack on the Blue House were drawn. Following reforms of North Korea’s intelligence services in 2009, the Reconnaissance Bureau was subordinated to the newly created Reconnaissance General Bureau and was redesignated as the RGB’s Second Bureau; it is believed that a submarine assigned to the Second Bureau was responsible for the sinking of the ROK Navy vessel Cheonan. Additionally, North Korea has continued to emphasize the development of its special operations forces, and these forces represent a potentially valuable strategic asset in the event of a conflict on the Korean Peninsula.
North Korea Mini Submarine. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
But North Korean intelligence and special operations forces are worrisome as much for their potential to cause conflict as they are for their role during a conflict, and exist alongside more overt provocations as triggers of violence. And while North Korean use of violence may often be the result of calculated efforts at brinkmanship or provocation, as the Gangneung submarine incident illustrates the use of more covert capabilities can result in violence even when such an outcome is neither expected nor desired.
North Korea wheeling out new Hwasong-17 ICBM. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
19fortyfive.com · by Eli Fuhrman · December 19, 2022
9. Inside N. Korea’s Internet-based foreign currency-earning activities
We must go on an aggressive offensive against the regime's all purpose sword.
Inside N. Korea’s Internet-based foreign currency-earning activities
"We get most of our work from North America and South America," the cadre told Daily NK
By Seulkee Jang -
2022.12.20 5:00pm
https://www.dailynk.com/english/inside-north-korea-internet-based-foreign-currency-earning-activities/
dailynk.com
Students at the Mangyongdae Revolutionary School in Pyongyang. (KCNA)
The South Korean government recently announced a warning regarding North Korea IT personnel with the goal of preventing North Korea from earning foreign currency through cyberspace.
North Korean IT personnel reportedly account for a growing portion of the country’s effort to secure cash for its nuclear and missile programs. So, what are these IT experts doing? And how are they living?
Last Tuesday, Daily NK interviewed Mr. A, a cadre who monitors North Korean IT personnel in China.
He is tasked with surveilling the movements of North Korean IT personnel, who operate in small groups of 10 to 20, as well as those of the cadres who manage them, and reporting his findings up the chain of command.
Since Mr. A regularly watches over how they live, he could tell Daily NK in detail how North Korean IT personnel in China are earning foreign currency, what their living environment is like and which difficulties they must contend with.
According to him, North Korean IT personnel currently dispatched to China live like prisoners, lodging communally in narrow apartments or office spaces. He said they work long days of 18 hours or more, earning up to USD 20,000 a month in foreign currency.
North Korean IT personnel are civilians, but they are dispatched overseas after applying to recruitment drives for overseas workers by major state agencies such as the Munitions Industry Department, Ministry of Defense, Reconnaissance General Bureau, Ministry of State Security or Central Committee, or after being recommended by one of these agencies.
All these agencies dispatch and manage IT personnel to earn foreign currency, but the workers’ duties differ slightly agency to agency since each organization uses them for slightly different goals.
For example, personnel belonging to the Munitions Industry Department or Ministry of Defense focus on illegal activities that can net big scores such as robbing or hacking cryptocurrency because they must gather money for munitions — something called “Jan. 8 funds” — to send to the Workers’ Party.
On the other hand, personnel with the Reconnaissance General Bureau or Ministry of State Security often earn relatively small amounts of foreign currency to send as party funds while performing their chief duty, the collection of intelligence.
Most North Korean IT personnel are concentrated in China, where they can freely use the Internet while staying close to North Korea.
The Chinese provinces of Liaoning and Jilin reportedly host the most North Korean IT personnel.
Mr. A told Daily NK that because personnel can carry out their duties anywhere there is functioning Internet – and because dispatching and managing personnel far from home can prove challenging – North Korean IT workers dispatched overseas make areas along the border with North Korea their chief place of operations.
The following is the full text of the interview with Mr. A.
Daily NK (DNK): How do North Korean IT personnel dispatched to China usually make foreign currency?
Mr. A: “They receive money for completing orders from the US, Canada and South American countries to make computer programs, build websites and develop different apps for mobile phones. They also build all the programs for e-commerce sites. They get a lot of orders because they do the work for lower prices. However, incomes differ wildly between individuals since orders demand different specs and skills differ a bit person-to-person.”
DNK: Recently, the South Korean government said that North Korean IT workers could be faking their nationality or identities to get work from South Korean companies and issued a warning about this state of affairs. Did you know about this? And what kind of impact will a warning like this have on the activities of North Korea’s IT personnel?
Mr. A: “I watch South Korean news every day. Naturally, I know about news that has to do with us. However, our usual area of operations isn’t South Korea. I said this a bit earlier, but we get most of our work from North America and South America. In the computer industries of other countries, few companies check which country you are from or your identity before giving you work. They just give work to whoever does it the cheapest. If we match the conditions they are looking for, we do the work. Anyway, we’re trying to make money here, and since we weren’t making much money that way from South Korea to begin with, it won’t have a direct impact on us no matter what they do to stop us.”
DNK: We’re curious how much income individual IT workers make. And does the state take party funds from that income?
Mr. A: “Everyone overseas pays party funds. However, the contributions differ group to group. Every CEO who manages a group submits a plan that says how much they will pay in party funds in a given year. We can say we’ll send USD 200,000 this year, or that we’ll send USD 150,000. Each worker makes a different amount of money. Those who select their jobs well and get a lot of work earn USD 3,000 to 5,000 a month. You can’t make that kind of money all the time, but you can when there’s lots of work. However, some guys earn maybe about USD 500 when, like nowadays, the economy is bad and it’s hard to get work. Things are rough now because there’s no work. Even if you earn a lot, if you make much more than you did the previous year, you have to pay more to the party, too. So, you have to earn more than that if you want to bring a lot of money home.”
What is the toughest thing North Korean IT personnel must endure while working in China? What difficulties do they face?
“The most difficult thing is that they can’t go out. They didn’t really wander around outside before, either, but because of COVID-19 over the past three years, they’ve gone out even less. They need to spend 24 hours a day together in small offices or apartments, sitting in front of their computers day and night, except for maybe three or four hours a day. Before, they sometimes went out to look around the markets, but because of COVID-19, they can’t go out anymore. It’s tough for boys in their 20s to stay cooped up and in front of their computers all the time. Nevertheless, from the state’s position, it has no choice but to send them overseas because they make so much more than laborers. It seems [the IT workers] are putting up with it because they’ll be allowed to return to North Korea next year.”
Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
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dailynk.com
10. U.S. F-22s in Korea for training near Jeju with Korean, U.S aircraft
The new normal. Routine training conducted routinely to sustain interoperability and readiness.
Tuesday
December 20, 2022
dictionary + A - A
U.S. F-22s in Korea for training near Jeju with Korean, U.S aircraft
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/12/20/national/defense/korea-us-f22/20221220175144536.html
U.S. B-52H, F-22 stealth fighter and C-17 are in a drill in Korea's air defense identification zone on Tuesday. [MINISTRY OF NATIONAL DEFENSE]
American F-22 stealth fighters joined a Korea-U.S. air drill near Jeju on Tuesday, as U.S. strategic assets continue to rotate through the Korean Peninsula.
The F-22 Raptors, which are returning to Korea for the first time in four years, flew in from an American air base in Okinawa, and joined U.S. B-52H Stratofortress, a long-range subsonic strategic bomber, four Korean F-35 Lighting II stealth fighters and four F-15K Slam Eagles, multi-role fighters, for training.
The drill took place in Korea's air defense identification zone southwest of Jeju on Tuesday, according to the Defense Ministry.
“The purpose of joint South Korea-U.S. stealth fighter training is to strengthen the ability to respond to North Korea's nuclear and missile threats,” a government source told the JoongAng Ilbo. “The training involves practicing strikes on North Korean high-value targets.”
The F-22 is a fifth-generation fighter, considered the most advanced in operation. It is fast and stealthy and has highly sophisticated computing capabilities and avionics. They were originally scheduled to arrive last week but were delayed due to heavy snowfall in Korea.
The last time F-22s were deployed to Korea was four years ago, when eight fighters joined a two-week joint air drill Max Thunder.
The F-22s will be flying back to Kadena Air Base in Okinawa after joining another drill with the Korean F-35s this week. They will be deployed meanwhile at the U.S. air base in Gunsan, North Jeolla.
Dozens of U.S. F-22 stealth fighters deployed at the Kadena Air Base in Okinawa, Japan, on Nov. 23. [YONHAP]
The Defense Ministry said that the drill should contribute greatly to improving the interoperability of U.S.-Korea combined operations in the air.
“The deployment of U.S. strategic assets, such as the B-52H and the F-22, is a result of the agreement between defense ministers of the two countries at the 54th ROK-U.S. Security Consultative Meeting last month,” said a ministry official in speaking with the press on Tuesday. “The joint drill is a significant action to follow the strengthened extended deterrence pledge by the United States.”
In the joint Security Consultative Meeting communique issued on Nov. 3, Seoul and Washington spelled out four linear categories — information sharing, consultation, joint planning and execution — as their extended deterrence cooperation against North Korea's evolving nuclear and missile threat.
North Korea has launched over 60 ballistic missiles this year, including an intercontinental ballistic missile on Nov. 18. Active movements detected near its nuclear test site have analysts warning of a possible nuclear test, which would be its seventh since the first in 2006.
As part of their expanded military drills, Washington and Soul also held a six-day air exercise last month involving over 240 aircraft, including F-35A stealth fighters, F-15K jets and KF-16 jets from the South Korean Air Force, as well as F-35B stealth fighters, EA-18 electronic warfare aircraft, KC-135 tankers and U-2 high-altitude reconnaissance aircraft from the U.S. military. They conducted a total 1,600 sorties.
BY KIM SANG-JIN, ESTHER CHUNG [chung.juhee@joongang.co.kr]
11. N. Korean air force commander executed for failing to properly maintain drones
Accountability in the nKPA.
I remember being a battalion motor officer in 2d Infantry Division. Every month we briefed our maintenance status at the "DISCOM Shootout." However, I cannot recall any ever being executed.
N. Korean air force commander executed for failing to properly maintain drones
The loss of the UAVs due to poor management was too much of a political burden to cover up, so commanders dealt with the matter with extraordinary haste
dailynk.com
A North Korean drone discovered in South Korea's Gangwon Province in June 2017 on display. (Yonhap)
A North Korean air force technology commander was recently court-martialed and executed for so poorly maintaining drones that several attack unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) had to be destroyed.
A Daily NK source in the North Korean military said Wednesday that the technology commander of a squadron of drones at Taetan Airbase was turned over to a court-martial and executed on Dec. 10, taking blame for “four attack UAVs being rendered unusable.”
The attack UAVs in question — high-speed kamikaze drones — can reportedly be loaded on trucks or trains for use at any time or any place, and are deployed to regions along the border with South Korea.
The source said the attack UAV issue revealed itself during the large-scale air force exercises in October and combat readiness inspections of air force units ordered by the General Staff Department and Defense Ministry from mid-October.
“[Commanders] took issue with how the four attack drones had long become akin to scrap metal in their storage tunnels, and several others were inoperable due to issues involving routine technical inspections,” he said.
Ultimately, the technology commander of the drone squadron took responsibility for the issues.
He was reportedly executed around 50 days after he was arrested by air force command prosecutors.
The source said the executed officer was a prominent commander who had helped form the squadron in 2015 and had taken charge of operating the technology of the attack UAVs since the early stage of their deployment.
Within the unit in question, the rapid investigation, trial and execution of the commander has reportedly sparked criticism that like a lizard, the country’s leadership was cutting off its own tail to survive.
Airmen say that they have “never received proper training since the formation of the drone squadron at Taetan or the deployment of the weapons, and that neither the General Staff Department nor the Ministry of Defense’s general equipment bureau had shown much concern for technological matters, but with problems being raised during the inspection, the commander became a scapegoat.”
The source said the General Staff Department and Ministry of Defense’s general equipment bureau usually conduct comprehensive inspections of all personnel, weapons and facilities after large-scale air force exercises, reporting their findings up the chain of command.
This time, however, the loss of the UAVs due to poor management was too much of a political burden to cover up, so commanders dealt with the matter with extraordinary haste.
The source said because the drone unit was a “special unit” that North Korea’s supreme command pinned high hopes upon when it was founded, “it must have been hard for either the General Staff Department or Ministry of Defense’s general equipment bureau to ignore and move past the problem.”
Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
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12. Kim Yo-jong goes ballistic as South pooh-poohs latest launch
Yep. The dragon lady cannot handle criticism, satire, and ridicule. She has no self-awareness and does not realize how foolish this "satellite photos" story is. But she cannot handle the criticism. There is a lesson here for influential professionals.
Tuesday
December 20, 2022
dictionary + A - A
Kim Yo-jong goes ballistic as South pooh-poohs latest launch
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/12/20/national/northKorea/Korea-North-Korea-Kim-Yojong/20221220170314099.html
Kim Yo-jong, sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, speaks at a mass political gathering in Pyongyang in August that was broadcast by the state-controlled Korean Central Television. Kim issued a vitriolic statement on Tuesday blasting South Koreans who questioned North Korea's reconnaissance and missile reentry capabilities. [YONHAP]
The sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on Tuesday blasted South Koreans who questioned Pyongyang's reconnaissance capabilities in response to its launch of a test satellite in a statement carried by state-controlled media on Tuesday.
Kim Yo-jong, who serves as deputy director of the ruling Workers’ Party propaganda department, also warned that the regime would soon conduct a long-distance missile launch to silence critics who doubt the regime’s ability to launch a nuclear weapon that can re-enter the atmosphere without disintegrating, according to Pyongyang’s state-controlled Korean Central News Agency.
In her vitriolic statement, the North Korean leader’s sister said that Sunday’s spy satellite test involved two missiles, and that the first was intended “only to send signals to the transmitter and test whether the ground control station could trace and receive them.”
Kim also bristled at comments by South Korean defense analysts who said the low-resolution images of Seoul and Incheon taken from the North Korean test satellite demonstrated the shortcomings of North Korean reconnaissance technology.
“I really want to slap these bastards who are rattling on but don’t know where to start,” the KCNA reported Kim as saying.
The KCNA reported that one of the cameras tested Sunday has 20-meter (65-feet) resolution, which Prof. Jang Young-geun of the Korea Aerospace University called “relatively low” compared to typical military reconnaissance satellites that have 0.5-meter resolution in a Monday interview with the JoongAng Ilbo.
Kim claimed the low-resolution images released by state media came from a “test-use camera,” suggesting the choice of a less advanced device was deliberate.
“Who would install and test an expensive high-resolution camera for a single test that lasts under 830 seconds?”
Kim hinted that a more powerful camera would be installed on the regime’s first military reconnaissance satellite, which North Korean state media said Monday would be launched into orbit by April next year.
“I’m already curious what kind of slander will spout when our military satellite soon carries out its mission,” she said.
Kim also heaped scorn on South Korean government statements that condemned the illegal nature of North Korean satellite tests under United Nations Security Council resolutions.
“No matter how much deception and complaining comes out and no matter the cost to our people, there will be no delays in the development of the reconnaissance satellite,” she said.
Under past Security Council resolutions, the North is forbidden from conducting tests involving ballistic missile technology, which includes satellite launches.
“It seems others want to disparage our strategic weapon capabilities by saying it can’t be demonstrated through a lofted-angle launch and must be proven through a normal-angle launch,” she said, adding that the latter was “something that may happen soon.”
The regime’s previous ICBM tests were almost all launched at lofted or sharp angles, which reduces the missile’s demonstrated range. Most of the missiles launched by the regime this past year flew on lofted trajectories and landed in the East Sea, although one intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) fired at a lower angle overflew Japan in early October.
In a separate statement Tuesday, the Pyongyang’s foreign ministry also blasted Tokyo’s recent announcement that it would move to acquire “counterstrike” capabilities in response to China’s increasing military assertiveness and North Korea’s growing missile arsenal.
The ministry said the changes to Japan’s national security strategy were tantamount to “formalizing invasive intent and the ability to conduct pre-emptive strikes on other countries” and warned that Tokyo would soon realize “it made a dangerous choice.”
“We make it clear that we reserve the right to take bold and decisive military measures to defend our national sovereignty, territorial integrity and fundamental interests in light of the complexity of the regional security environment arising from Japan’s negative actions,” the North’s foreign ministry said.
According to Cheon Seong-hwun, former director of the Korea Institute for National Unification, the North’s mention of “territorial integrity” signals Pyongyang has not abandoned its desire to unify the Korean Peninsula under its control.
“Territorial integrity is an ideological extension of North Korean founder Kim Il Sung’s theory of ‘national completion,’ or the North’s strategic aim to reunify the peninsula under its control,” Cheon said.
The North referred to the same concept in a law governing use of its nuclear weapons in September, where it called nuclear force “the basis of the state’s capacity to defend territorial integrity,” and again in an editorial in the ruling party’s Rodong Sinmun that suggested the regime could conduct a preemptive nuclear attack if it believed territorial integrity to be under threat.
BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]
13. Hanwha Systems to develop NATO-compliant secure radio network
Korea continues to strengthen its position as a member of the Arsenal of democracy.
Tuesday
December 20, 2022
dictionary + A - A
Hanwha Systems to develop NATO-compliant secure radio network
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2022/12/20/national/defense/Korea-Hanwha-System-defense/20221220181504827.html
Hanwha Group logo [HANWHA]
Hanwha Systems was selected by the state arms procurement agency to develop a Korean version of Link-22, a secure digital radio link system used by North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members to share tactical data, a company press release said Tuesday.
Under the contract with the Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA), worth 209.5 billion won ($161.6 million), Hanwha is expected to develop a joint maritime tactical data link system that shares information on targets detected by warships, submarines and aircraft in real time.
Hanwha Systems will develop data processing and network control software and install encryption devices, modems and communication equipment that can be integrated with existing naval combat systems or land command stations.
According to the press release, Hanwha Systems plans to begin development of 16 types of systems tailored for frigates, destroyers, submarines and support vessels in 2023 and complete mass production by 2029.
“Through our unique position in the field of tactical data links at home and abroad, we will maximize the Navy’s operational capabilities and prove the reliability and excellent performance of the Korean defense industry,” Hanwha Systems CEO Eoh Sung-chul was quoted as saying in the press release.
Link 22 is a NATO secure radio system that provides beyond line-of-sight communications and enables information exchange between air, surface, subsurface and ground-based tactical data systems. It is used for the exchange of tactical data among the military units of the participating nations.
Hanwha Systems is the developer of a combat management system (CMS) used by Navy ships to integrate the operation of sensors, weapons, communications and a command system.
The company is also currently involved in the development of a joint tactical data link system (JTDLS) that shares real-time situational information and disseminates command and control information.
JTDLS is intended to connect strategic and tactical systems using satellites and other wireless networks, allowing fighter jets, naval vessels and ground forces to share information from combat theaters.
BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]
14. Korea needs preemptive measures against Japan's new security strategy
Perhaps counterintuitive to my Korean friends but the best method to allay fears and prevent unilateral actions might be to establish a trilateral alliance.
Korea needs preemptive measures against Japan's new security strategy
The Korea Times · December 20, 2022
Protesters stage a protest against Japan's decision to acquire the capability to strike enemy bases in front of the Japanese Embassy in Seoul, Tuesday. Yonhap
By Kang Seung-woo
The South Korean government is advised to explore ways with the United States to stop Japan from deciding on its own to carry out an attack against North Korea, an act that could infringe on the South's sovereignty.
The Japanese government unveiled a new national security strategy last week, and the development of counterstrike capabilities ― one of three updates ― has emerged as a hot-button issue in South Korea as it allows Tokyo to strike at missile launch sites within North Korea in the event of an emergency.
The South Korean government claims that the exercise of such an action definitely requires Seoul's consent, because North Korea is part of the Korean Peninsula, which the South Korean Constitution defines as part of South Korea's territory, while also having a significant impact on security on the peninsula and the South's national interests.
However, a Japanese government official told reporters, Friday, its exercise of the counterstrike capability does not require approval from other nations as it is a self-defense measure.
"The biggest concern is about the Japanese military's involvement on the Korean Peninsula in peace time, which might violate sovereignty," said Go Myong-hyun, a senior fellow of the Asan Institute for Policy Studies.
"We need to strongly express our concerns over the issue to the U.S. as it is linked to our national sovereignty," he added.
Upon the release of the new national security documents, the U.S. government fully welcomed the revisions, as evidenced by U.S. President Joe Biden's tweets that said, "The United States stands with Japan at this critical moment" and "Our alliance is the cornerstone of a free and open Indo-Pacific and we welcome Japan's contributions to peace and prosperity."
In addition, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida plans to visit Washington, D.C. next month to discuss its military buildup with Biden, according to Japanese media outlets.
The updated national security documents stipulate that Japan needs counterstrike capabilities which, in the case of missile attacks by an opponent, enable the country to mount effective counterstrikes against the opponent to prevent further attacks while defending against incoming missiles by means of the missile defense network.
However, some claim that the new strategy failed to go into detail about which situations will allow Japan to mount a counterstrike against the opponent.
Park Won-gon, a professor at Ewha Womans University, said the South Korean government needs to sit down with the U.S. and discuss the counterstrike issue.
"The South Korea-U.S. alliance and the U.S.-Japan alliance are mutually connected and they do not work separately," he said.
"Putting all available scenarios on the table, the South Korean government should talk with the U.S. side on the issue and the role of Japan," Park added.
Go also said, "The U.S. has been seeking to enhance trilateral cooperation with South Korea and Japan and in that sense, we need to make efforts to get Japan to exercise the counterstrike capability under the frame of the three-way cooperation."
Meanwhile, North Korea criticized Japan's decision, Tuesday, to develop its counterstrike capability, warning of "actual action" in response.
Its foreign ministry said in a statement, carried by the state-run Korean Central News Agency, that Japan was causing a grave security threat to the region by adopting the new policy of acquiring counterstrike capabilities against other nations.
It also said the move has changed security conditions in East Asia fundamentally, adding that Japan will learn that its move was a wrong and dangerous choice.
The ministry added that Pyongyang will continue to demonstrate through practical actions how much it is concerned and displeased with Japan's move.
The Korea Times · December 20, 2022
15. Making a big deal is unrealistic to denuclearize North Korea
Kim Jong Un is not interested in a "big deal." Unless perhaps it includes the withdrawal of all US troops, an end to extended deterrence,and an end of the ROK/US alliance. And of course he basically demands that first and then he will consider denuclearization (but will never actually go through with it).
Making a big deal is unrealistic to denuclearize North Korea
The Korea Times · December 20, 2022
By Mitch Shin
North Korea used to pursue a big deal with the United States by utilizing its nuclear arsenal in exchange for lifting all economic sanctions. However, this strategy seems to have adjusted in the Kim Jong-un era.
When then-South Korean President Moon Jae-in activated his "peace process" to tackle the rising tensions on the Korean Peninsula and renew the stalled inter-Korean dialogue in 2018, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un showed his willingness to denuclearize his country. Considering the North's past attempts not to abide by the agreements that were crafted in the negotiations with the U.S. and South Korea, his vow was accused of being another cover-up operation by Pyongyang to achieve its hidden goals.
With this, Kim's pledge to denuclearize his country sounded unrealistic to North Korea watchers due to the impossibility of his regime surviving without nuclear weapons and the desire of the North to be a powerful nuclear-owned state to confront the U.S.
As his father Kim Jong-il used a two-faced strategy over the U.S. administrations in the late 1990s and early 2000s, his relatively young successor Kim Jong-un was expected to update or slightly revise his father's negotiating strategy. Unlike his father, however, the offer he made during the negotiations demonstrated how he was ready to take steps toward the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
Eight months after the first North Korea-U.S. summit in Singapore, Kim again jumped on diplomacy with then-U.S. President Donald Trump in Hanoi in February 2019. As it was a follow-up summit meeting after the Singapore summit, it was expected to see some substantive outcomes over the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula ― which is technically the denuclearization of North Korea as there is no nuclear weapon on the South's soil.
As reported, however, the summit broke down due to the different views of Trump and Kim over the ways to denuclearize North Korea. Trump eventually walked out of the summit with no deal, leading the nuclear talks to be stalled to this day.
Many American experts and politicians praised Trump's decision by saying that no deal is better than making a bad deal. However, what should be underlined here is the offer made by Kim. According to the media reports and papers, Kim offered an incremental deal which was a different approach from his father's: complete disarmament of all nuclear facilities in Yongbyon in exchange for lifting the five sanctions imposed in the U.N. Security Council that concerned the civilian economy.
In other words, Kim showed his willingness to denuclearize his country in a phased process in the long term. As the first step to denuclearize North Korea, it was not a bad deal for Washington to accept. However, Washington hawks believed that there are other hidden nuclear arsenals outside of Yongbyon ― which is not proven officially yet ― and made Trump pressure Kim to give up his nuclear weapons at once. Due to Trump's sudden brinkmanship strategy in the Hanoi summit, Kim might have interpreted that the U.S. would not lift economic sanctions even if he showed some meaningful moves for the denuclearization of his country.
Some American experts may say that Trump made the right decision as Pyongyang would have again broken the agreement but let's step back and look at what Kim offered to Trump. Was Kim's offer unacceptable to Trump?
With this, one more question should be asked of American officials and experts: Was it the right call of Trump to demand Kim hand over his nuclear weapons and fissile materials in one scoop?
There are a few background details, which explain Trump's "walk out" decision. The most compelling one is the domestic political issue: the hearing of Trump's personal lawyer Michael Cohen. Due to the House Democrats' scheduling of the hearing on the same day as the Hanoi summit, Trump failed to get enough attention from the press and the public. In this context, some South Korean pundits once shared their analysis that Trump's no-deal was a strategic decision to turn the scale in his favor.
Since the Hanoi summit went down, North Korea shifted its lever toward nuclear and missile development again. Washington and Seoul have repeatedly urged Pyongyang to return to the negotiating table with no preconditions. Considering Trump's political and strategic decision for his interests in Hanoi, however, the U.S. should make concessions such as lifting the economic sanctions partially or temporarily halting the joint military drills with the South if it wants to renew the deadlocked nuclear talks with the North. As it has already made clear several times, Pyongyang would not engage in dialogue with Washington again unless it makes concessions.
It is no longer important to argue whether the U.S. should try to implement an Iran-like nuclear model or the Libya model on North Korea issues. What should be highlighted is that as both the U.S. and North Korea cannot accept a big deal that is not completely standing on each side's interests, Washington should closely coordinate with Seoul to make a long-term and phased plan for denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. It also needs to change its main goal over this issue from keeping the status quo (insisting on the complete, verifiable, irreversible and dismantlement (CVID) of weapons of mass destruction on the Korean Peninsula with no plan B) to resolving the security dilemma.
To make it happen, Seoul should be the main handler on the issue under the full support of Washington and make clear that Pyongyang cannot bypass it to directly negotiate with Washington.
Mitch Shin (mitchsshin@gmail.com) is chief Koreas correspondent for The Diplomat.
The Korea Times · December 20, 2022
16. Ep.24 David Maxwell: Recalibrating Deterrence Against an Evolving DPRK Nuclear Threat
My interview at the East Asia Institute last week in Seoul. It is 10 minutes derived from an our long Q&A with Chaesung Chun (Chair of the National Security Research Center, EAI; Professor, Seoul National University)
Ep.24 David Maxwell: Recalibrating Deterrence Against an Evolving DPRK Nuclear Threat
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=joAwXKS9PXU&t=16s
EAI동아시아연구원
2.56K subscribers
23 views Dec 19, 2022
David Maxwell, a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, views that North Korea seeks to weaken the U.S.-ROK ties with its ramped-up missile testing. He evaluates that Kim Jong-un’s strategy has failed to estrange Seoul and Washington, who both seek to reinvigorate deterrence against intensifying North Korean nuclear and missile threats. Regarding the possibility of U.S.-ROK security decoupling due to the increased capabilities of North Korea’s missiles, he notes that it is unlikely to occur precisely as Washington is well aware of the Korean peninsula’s geopolitical and strategic importance for the future of the United States. David Maxwell emphasizes the United States' ironclad commitment to support building a free and unified Korea.
1. North Korea’s Increasing Nuclear and Missile Threat to the U.S. and Its Allies 00:00
2. Possible Decoupling of the U.S.-ROK Alliance as a Result of Increases in the Range of North Korea’s Missiles 6:33
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Senior Advisor, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
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