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Quotes of the Day:
“Society can and does execute its own mandates: and if it issues wrong mandates instead of right, or any mandates at all in things with which it ought not to meddle, it practices a social tyranny more formidable than many kinds of political oppression, since, though not usually upheld by such extreme penalties, it leaves fewer means of escape, penetrating much more deeply into the details of life, and enslaving the soul itself.”
― John Stuart Mill, On Liberty
“The executive power in our government is not the only, perhaps not even the principal, object of my solicitude. The tyranny of the legislature is really the danger most to be feared, and will continue to be so for many years to come. The tyranny of the executive power will come in its turn, but at a more distant period.”
― Thomas Jefferson, Democracy in America
“For this was the other thing that Elric knew: that to compromise with Tyranny is always to be destroyed by it. The sanest and most logical choice lay always in resistance.”
― Michael Moorcock , The Revenge of the Rose
1. New North Korean Nuclear Reactor Likely Running, U.N. Says
2. The War in Ukraine Has Created a New ‘Axis of Evil’
3. Preventing conflict in the South China Sea and the Korean Peninsula
4. Twisted Sister: Is Kim Yo Jong Really the Most Dangerous Woman in the World?
5. B-1 Bombers Fly in Second Trilateral Exercise with Japan and S Korea
6. Next-Gen Interceptor Is Pentagon’s Only Option For Defeating Future North Korean ICBMs
7. South Korean court orders Japanese firms to compensate more wartime Korean workers for forced labor
8. S. Korea stages independent tabletop exercise simulating N.K. nuclear attack
9. N. Korea to hold key parliamentary meeting on Jan. 15 to discuss budget
10. N. Korea condemns G7 over possible seizure of Russian assets for Ukraine aid
1. New North Korean Nuclear Reactor Likely Running, U.N. Says
This will drive the arguments of the arms control advocates.
Excerpts:
Plutonium can be separated from the irradiated fuel produced by the reactor for use in a nuclear weapon.
Grossi said in a statement that without inspectors at the site, the agency cannot confirm the light water reactor’s operational status. The agency’s inspectors were expelled from North Korea in 2009, but the IAEA uses satellite imagery to follow developments.
“I repeat that the further development of the DPRK’s nuclear program, including the construction and operation of the LWR, is a violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions and is deeply regrettable,” Grossi said, referring to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, its official name, and the light water reactor.
North Korea already has long been producing plutonium at a smaller light water reactor at Yongbyon, but the new facility is expected to be able to produce significantly larger amounts. It also produces enriched uranium, which can be used to fuel a nuclear weapon.
Nuclear experts say they believe North Korea is producing several nuclear weapons a year and has dozens of bombs at this point.
New North Korean Nuclear Reactor Likely Running, U.N. Says
Experts say the new light water reactor could let Pyongyang’s plutonium production surge
https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/new-north-korean-nuclear-reactor-likely-running-u-n-says-acaf918a?mod=Searchresults_pos3&page=1
By Laurence Norman
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Dec. 22, 2023 5:21 am ET
A satellite image of North Korea’s Yongbyon nuclear facility. PHOTO: ASSOCIATED PRESS
North Korea appears to be operating a more powerful reactor for producing plutonium at its main nuclear site for the first time, the United Nations atomic agency said late Thursday, days after Pyongyang tested an intercontinental ballistic missile that could reach across the U.S.
International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi said that a light water reactor at North Korea’s Yongbyon nuclear facility was discharging warm water, indicating it was reaching criticality, the point at which its nuclear chain reaction becomes self-sustaining. The regime has been building the reactor for years.
Plutonium can be separated from the irradiated fuel produced by the reactor for use in a nuclear weapon.
Grossi said in a statement that without inspectors at the site, the agency cannot confirm the light water reactor’s operational status. The agency’s inspectors were expelled from North Korea in 2009, but the IAEA uses satellite imagery to follow developments.
“I repeat that the further development of the DPRK’s nuclear program, including the construction and operation of the LWR, is a violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions and is deeply regrettable,” Grossi said, referring to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, its official name, and the light water reactor.
North Korea already has long been producing plutonium at a smaller light water reactor at Yongbyon, but the new facility is expected to be able to produce significantly larger amounts. It also produces enriched uranium, which can be used to fuel a nuclear weapon.
Nuclear experts say they believe North Korea is producing several nuclear weapons a year and has dozens of bombs at this point.
On Monday, Pyongyang fired a missile thousands of miles into space before it fell safely into the waters between the Korean Peninsula and Japan. The launch of the Hwasong-18 solid-fuel ICBM was North Korea’s fifth ICBM launch of the year, following four such stand-alone tests in 2022.
The older Hwasong-15 could travel an estimated 8,100 miles and reach the U.S. within a half-hour. Pyongyang is roughly 7,500 miles from Florida, with the West Coast being much closer. In recent years, Kim has pledged to develop an ICBM that could reach 15,000 kilometers, or about 9,320 miles, on a normal trajectory. The extra flight length also means North Korea could carry heavier payloads over shorter distances, missile experts say.
The launch of the Hwasong-18 was the fifth ICBM launch of the year. PHOTO: ANTHONY WALLACE/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES
North Korean leader Kim-Jong Un, who oversaw the test-fire of the Hwasong-18, said the launch demonstrated North Korea was prepared should Washington make a “wrong decision” against his country.
In a report in April, David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security said the new light water reactor “could allow a surge in plutonium quantities at an estimated rate of about 20 kilograms of plutonium a year, a rate four to five times as large as that of the small adjacent reactor.”
In the report, Albright estimated North Korea has anywhere between 31 to 96 nuclear weapons, depending on the power of the bombs it has constructed and what mix of enriched uranium and plutonium has been used.
The IAEA has warned several times that Pyongyang may be preparing to resume nuclear weapons testing.
In a show of strength, the U.S. has regularly sent its nuclear assets to the region, with the latest, the USS Missouri, arriving in the South Korean port city of Busan on Sunday. The U.S. is also stepping up coordination with South Korea and Japan. On Tuesday, the three countries launched a system knitting together their missile-radar systems for the first time, improving real-time data on the Kim regime threat.
After the 2017 Hwasong-15 launch showed the ability to strike anywhere in the U.S., Kim shifted Pyongyang’s focus toward diplomacy with Washington, placing a self-imposed ban on ICBM and nuclear tests as a sign of goodwill. Talks eventually broke down between the U.S. and North Korea. Pyongyang pivoted back to significant weapons tests in March 2022, unveiling its next-generation Hwasong-17.
Write to Laurence Norman at laurence.norman@wsj.com
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2. The War in Ukraine Has Created a New ‘Axis of Evil’
Axis of authoritarians who are pure evil.
Finally people are recognizing the contributions of north Korea and the Kim family regime to conflict areas around the world.
The War in Ukraine Has Created a New ‘Axis of Evil’
Russia is turning to Iran and North Korea for military supplies and diplomatic support.
https://www.wsj.com/world/the-war-in-ukraine-has-created-a-new-axis-of-evil-cd50a398?mod=Searchresults_pos5&page=1
From left: North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iran’s religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whose countries have grown closer since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. PHOTO: FROM LEFT: MIKHAIL METZEL/SPUTNIK/REUTERS; MIKHAIL KLIMENTYEV/SPUTNIK/ASSOCIATED PRESS; IRANIAN RELIGIOUS LEADER PRESS OFFICE/GETTY IMAGES
By Yaroslav TrofimovFollow
Dec. 21, 2023 11:00 am ET
Beaming at every turn, North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un toured the jewels of Russia’s military industries in September. A guest of President Vladimir Putin, he gawked at the plant making Su-35 jet fighters, inspected a Russian Navy frigate and examined the Kinzhal missiles at the Vostochny spaceport.
Soon thereafter, trainloads of North Korean artillery shells started rolling to Russian troops in Ukraine—by American calculations, as many as one million munitions, or roughly three times what European nations had been able to supply in a whole year.
Another increasingly important partner of Russia, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, visited with Putin this month. Iranian ammunition and drones have played a major role in the Russian war effort. Now Raisi discussed the desired payback: sophisticated Russian aircraft and air defenses that would make it much harder for the U.S. or Israel to strike Iran and its nuclear program.
President George W. Bush used the term “axis of evil” to describe North Korea, Iran and Iraq in 2002, in his first State of the Union speech after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. The idea was ridiculed by many at the time. But now an axis uniting Moscow, Tehran and Pyongyang has become a geopolitical reality—and with a revisionist and reckless Russia at its center, it poses a growing threat to the U.S. and its allied democracies.
President George W. Bush introduced the term ‘axis of evil’ in his 2022 State of the Union address. PHOTO: GETTY IMAGES
“These countries are showing an excellent burden-sharing. And when it comes to Ukraine, there is an unholy alliance of these forces which have achieved a war economy, whereas we in the West are unable to achieve an increase in the production of ammunition,” said Roderich Kiesewetter, a German lawmaker and a former senior officer of the German General Staff.
This new axis is coalescing as the U.S.-led Western alliance is showing systemic cracks. Indispensable American aid to Ukraine has been stalled because of Republican opposition in Congress, and EU efforts to confront Russia have been sabotaged by Hungary. Neither the U.S. nor Europe has been willing or able to boost military production to match Russia’s recent growth in manufacturing ammunition and weapons.
China, another authoritarian power, is friendly to the burgeoning Russia-Iran-North Korea axis but has not joined it militarily—though it may do so in the future, if Western resolve flags. “The Chinese are watching: how do we behave? And our responses are vague and not corresponding to our needs,” said Artis Pabriks, a former Latvian defense and foreign minister who now heads the Northern Europe Policy Center, a think-tank. “We have deeply underestimated the impact of Russian aggression in Ukraine.”
China’s President Xi Jinping (left) and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin at a reception in the Kremlin, March 21, 2023. China is friendly to the Russia-North Korea-Iran axis but has not joined it militarily. PHOTO: PAVEL BYRKIN/SPUTNIK/AFP/GETTY IMAGES
A new acronym has already emerged in Washington to denote this autocratic lineup: the CRINKs, meaning China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. These countries have increasingly aligned their positions not just on Ukraine, but on other crises that pit them against the U.S., such as the war in Gaza.
Such diplomatic coordination shouldn’t be underestimated, said Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, a New Hampshire Democrat and a senior member of the Foreign Relations Committee. “Russia gives Iran and North Korea acceptance and credibility, and it’s also one of the things that China provides to Russia: that they are not alone in the international community,” she said.
During George W. Bush’s presidency two decades ago, Russia was positioning itself as a responsible global power, and cooperated with the U.S. and other Western allies in moderating Iranian and North Korean behavior. Even after Russia invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea in 2014, it was one of the parties to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, a deal through which the Obama administration aimed to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Until 2017, Russia voted for U.N. Security Council sanctions against North Korea.
But when the 2022 invasion of Ukraine failed to achieve regime change in Kyiv and prompted the West to funnel money and weapons to the Ukrainian government, Moscow’s calculations changed. With Russia crippled by Western sanctions, Putin has turned to other rogue states that could provide him with valuable military aid, and that crave Russia’s own technologies.
Iran’s Shahed drones entered combat in Ukraine in October last year, and have been extensively used against Ukrainian power stations, port infrastructure and military targets. Production of the drones is now partly localized inside Russia. Such field-testing in real combat conditions, against Western-supplied air defenses, has allowed Iran to improve the design and the effectiveness of its drones, military officials say.
A building in Kyiv destroyed by a Russian attack using an Iranian-made drone, October 2022. PHOTO: OLEKSII CHUMACHENKO/SIPA USA/ASSOCIATED PRESS
So far, Iran has stopped short of providing Russia with ballistic missiles, using that step as a bargaining chip in its talks with the West. Such restraint, however, could disappear now that attacks by Iranian-backed Hamas have sparked war in Gaza.
“The Iran-Russian military cooperation is really reaching new heights. It’s a stunning turn of events,” said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group. Military ties between Moscow and Tehran were solidified by Russia entering the Syrian war in 2015, he said, and if Iran obtained Russian aircraft and air-defenses, it could project military power across the Middle East. “Nobody else is willing to give them that kind of weapons,” Vaez said.
The Iranian missile program, and its military industries in general, have long benefited from North Korean know-how. But Russia has weapons that North Korea doesn’t produce. Iran’s weakest point is its lack of modern combat aircraft, and it has already signed agreements to obtain Russian Su-35 jets.
While the Soviet Union used to be a formal ally of North Korea, post-1991 Russia was wary, developing close ties with South Korea instead. That coldness turned into a nearly-obsequious courting of Kim when the Russian army confronted an ammunition shortage this summer. Accustomed to an overwhelming artillery advantage on the battlefield, Russian troops in southern Ukraine suddenly found themselves facing superior Ukrainian firepower on some sections of the front. Ironically, a large share of the artillery ammunition used by Ukraine during its summer offensive was provided, via American intermediaries, by South Korea.
In July, weeks after the Ukrainian offensive began, Russian defense minister Sergei Shoigu traveled to Pyongyang. At a military parade to mark the 70th anniversary of the North Korean “victory” over American forces, he stood next to Kim as troops marched by. When Kim made a weeklong visit to the Russian Far East two months later, he was showered with honors—a contrast to the relatively cool reception he had been given on his previous trip in 2019.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un (center) with Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (left) in Pyongyang, July 2023. Shoigu’s visit was part of Moscow’s effort to negotiate for supplies of North Korean munitions. PHOTO: KOREAN CENTRAL NEWS AGENCY/ASSOCIATED PRESS
“We’re in a different world. Russia’s war has been unfolding in ways not entirely according to Putin’s plans,” said Sung-Yoon Lee, a specialist on North Korea at the Woodrow Wilson International Center. “Putin needs Kim, and Kim needs Putin. In this new environment, he added, the old Cold War dynamics in East Asia have returned, with Russia, North Korea and China on one side and the U.S., South Korea and Japan on the other.
This doesn’t entirely align with Beijing’s interests. China, unlike Russia, North Korea or Iran, has a trade-dependent global economy. For now, at least, it is seeking not to further damage relations with the U.S. or Europe—one reason why Chinese leader Xi Jinping has declined to provide weapons to Russia. Beijing is also wary of Russia encroaching upon its own privileged relationship with North Korea.
“It’s not in Xi’s interests that the Russians are pulling the Korean peninsula into the war in Ukraine,” said Victor Cha, Korea chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., and a former senior White House official. “It’s just causing a tightening of the U.S.-Japan-South Korea relationship, which makes China’s neighborhood even more difficult.”
What exactly North Korea has gotten from Russia so far is unclear. Pyongyang successfully launched its first spy satellite at the end of November after previous failed attempts, an achievement that U.S. officials said could have been a result of Russian assistance. But so far there is no public evidence that Russia is sharing the ballistic-missile and submarine technology particularly sought by Kim.
“Russia wants artillery shells, but in return for that, you don’t have to help the North Koreans with cutting-edge military technology. There are other things that Russia can do: financial assistance, food aid, energy,” said James Brown, a professor of political science at Temple University in Japan. “It seems like Russia is deliberately playing up, for political reasons, the idea that they could provide advanced military technology. It’s a way to threaten South Korea and Japan that, if they continue to support sanctions and assist Ukraine, it will have consequences for them.”
3. Preventing conflict in the South China Sea and the Korean Peninsula
Excerpts:
The main takeaway from this conference was the imperative to enhance bilateral and multilateral dialogue and cooperation, with a focus on reducing existential threats and fostering regional and global stability and security.
Indeed, witnessing Russia’s war in Ukraine, with significant casualties and suffering, and Israel’s war with the Hamas terrorist organization, and the heavy casualties and suffering in Israel and Gaza, it’s doubly important that the U.S. and China work harder at ensuring that we not only prevent any future conflict between our two countries in the South China Sea or Taiwan Strait but that we ALSO collaborate to end ongoing conflicts and prevent the potential for a future war on the Korean Peninsula.
As we correctly analyze what more we could have done to prevent Russia from invading Ukraine and what preemptive actions could have been taken to prevent Hamas from its barbaric attack on Israeli civilians on Oct. 7, future generations will look back on how well we managed U.S.-China relations to ensure that conflict was prevented, and cooperation was enhanced for the common good of all nations.
Preventing conflict in the South China Sea and the Korean Peninsula
Working for the common good of all nations
washingtontimes.com · by The Washington Times https://www.washingtontimes.com
In this image from video handout provided by the Philippine Coast Guard, a Chinese Coast Guard ship, bottom, uses water cannon Philippine coast guard patrol ship, BRP Cabra, center, as it approaches Second Thomas Shoal, locally known as Ayungin Shoal, … In this image from video handout … more >
By Joseph R. DeTrani - - Thursday, December 21, 2023
OPINION:
At a Track 2 conference (former officials and academics) with China on U.S.-China relations, convened after the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, or APEC, conference in San Francisco, one of the subjects discussed was the need to avoid military confrontation.
There was considerable discussion about tension in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait and the need to establish rules of engagement to reduce risks in maritime encounters.
A good portion of that discussion dealt with the ongoing pressure from China on the Philippines in the South China Sea and China’s interference with Philippine efforts to resupply a small Philippine garrison on the Second Thomas Shoal.
Cited were Chinese coast guard vessels and fishing boats actively interfering with Philippine efforts to resupply the garrison, disabling a Philippine vessel with water cannons, and colliding with another Philippine vessel. In response, the U.S. made it clear to China that an armed attack against Philippine forces would activate the U.S.-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty.
Most thought that tension in the South China Sea could quickly and unexpectedly escalate, with the potential for eventual conflict. Indeed, the sense was that it was the South China Sea that required immediate attention. Tension in the Taiwan Strait with the coming presidential elections in January was also of concern, especially given Chinese naval and air activities around Taiwan.
All agreed that restoring leadership communications and military-to-military relations were positive deliverables from the summit of President Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the APEC conference.
But it will be incumbent on these senior officials, with expanded communications with Cabinet and lower-level officials, to ensure that our two countries don’t stumble into accidental conflict and war due to misunderstanding or miscommunications related to developments in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.
Also discussed was the exponential escalation of North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities and the potential for conflict on the Korean Peninsula and throughout Northeast Asia. China’s leadership role in convening the Six-Party Talks with North Korea was discussed, with some commentary on the value of China again working with the U.S. to get North Korea back to the negotiating table.
These and other issues were discussed, including Russia’s invasion of and war with Ukraine and Hamas’ Oct. 7 terrorist attack on Israel, killing more than 1,200 Israeli and foreign nationals and taking 236 hostages. Economic challenges, climate change and managing artificial intelligence were other issues discussed, all requiring greater U.S.-China collaboration.
The main takeaway from this conference was the imperative to enhance bilateral and multilateral dialogue and cooperation, with a focus on reducing existential threats and fostering regional and global stability and security.
Indeed, witnessing Russia’s war in Ukraine, with significant casualties and suffering, and Israel’s war with the Hamas terrorist organization, and the heavy casualties and suffering in Israel and Gaza, it’s doubly important that the U.S. and China work harder at ensuring that we not only prevent any future conflict between our two countries in the South China Sea or Taiwan Strait but that we ALSO collaborate to end ongoing conflicts and prevent the potential for a future war on the Korean Peninsula.
As we correctly analyze what more we could have done to prevent Russia from invading Ukraine and what preemptive actions could have been taken to prevent Hamas from its barbaric attack on Israeli civilians on Oct. 7, future generations will look back on how well we managed U.S.-China relations to ensure that conflict was prevented, and cooperation was enhanced for the common good of all nations.
• Joseph R. DeTrani served as special envoy for the Six-Party Talks with North Korea from 2003 to 2006 and as director of the National Counterproliferation Center. The views expressed here are the author’s and not those of any government agency or department.
Copyright © 2023 The Washington Times, LLC. Click here for reprint permission.
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4. Twisted Sister: Is Kim Yo Jong Really the Most Dangerous Woman in the World?
I think this could have been a book review from the regime's Propaganda and Agitation Department.
I stand with Professor Lee.
Twisted Sister: Is Kim Yo Jong Really the Most Dangerous Woman in the World?
counterpunch.org · by John Feffer · December 22, 2023
Not much is known about Kim Yo Jong, the younger sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. She might have been born in 1987 or perhaps 1989. She studied in Switzerland as a child, along with her brother, but no one has reported on her studies there or whether she developed a love of basketball and Eric Clapton like her brothers. She may be married. She might have children.
She hasn’t left much of a paper trail. Some splenetic statements about the United States and South Korea from the country’s Propaganda and Agitation Department, which she has run since 2014, have been attributed to her. In August 2022, North Korean television broadcast her first speech, in which she reported on her brother’s case of COVID and lashed out at her country’s enemies.
Other than that, she traveled to South Korea to attend the opening of the Winter Olympics in 2018 and met that year with South Korean President Moon Jae-in. She attended U.S.-North Korean summits in Singapore and Hanoi in 2018 and 2019 and accompanied her brother on his meeting with Vladimir Putin in the Russian Far East in September 2023.
There’s hardly enough material on Kim Yo Jong to fill an article. And yet Lee Sung-Yoon, a fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, has devoted an entire book to her.
To fill in the gaps, Lee has filled his new book with lots of contextual material about her family —grandfather (Kim Il Sung), father (Kim Jong Il), brother (Kim Jong Un), and various other relatives — about North-South relations, and about U.S. diplomatic contacts with Pyongyang. He has tried to intuit her personality from minor gestures made during overseas visits. He has even gone so far as to imagine her thoughts (“Well done, brother, she seemed to be thinking,” he writes at one point after a North-South summit, “On to Washington.”)
On this slender evidence, Lee attempts to build a case that Kim Yo Jong is, as the subtitle of the book states, “the most dangerous woman in the world.” Elsewhere, he claims that “she is unparalleled in the contemporary world” and that she may well take over the helm of the country.
Such overstatements could be dismissed as merely part of an effort to get a publishing contract or, later, book reviews. Unfortunately, Lee’s efforts to play up the importance of his subject leads him into some subtle and not-so-subtle distortions.
Such distortions begin with the cover of the book, which shows the half-profile of an unsmiling Kim Yo Jong, the rest of her face concealed by a block of red on the right side of the cover that showcases the title. This layout suggests that the book, when opened, will provide access to “the rest” of the “most dangerous woman in the world.”
It’s a proper teaser, perhaps, but this representation conceals a more serious transformation. Against the white backdrop of the left side of the cover, the stray hairs that escape Kim’s face make her look disheveled at best and maniacal at worst. It’s a photo that befits the portrait of a woman as a Fury or avenging angel or, as Lee writes in the book, someone who has “mastered the dark arts of psychological manipulation, strategic deception, fake peace overtures, hostage-taking, torture, and ad hominem name-calling.”
But the original photo shows Kim Yo Jong against a black background, where the stray hairs are practically invisible and where she looks like any other unsmiling North Korean official: Stolid rather than psychotic.
Such a manipulation would be justified if the book went on to reveal just how demonically powerful Kim Jong Un’s sister truly is. As a close advisor to her brother, Kim Yo Jong does indeed possess power, at least within the North Korean system. So, too, is she on the record saying rather unpleasant things about the U. S. and South Korea, though she is simply participating in a long tradition of harsh invective coming from Pyongyang.
But is she really “the most dangerous woman in the world”?
Consider this representative passage from the book about the passage of a certain South Korean law restricting the actions of North Korea human rights activists.
The domineering princess had only to snap her fingers and the South’s rulers complied with a vigour and a sophistry, not to mention human rights violations the likes of which shall seldom, if ever, be observed in another advanced democracy.
Lee advances a rather unusual argument that Kim Yo Jong, as a woman, has alternately charmed and bullied South Korean politicians into obeying her will, as if she combines the talents of a dominatrix and a diplomat. “She is not only pretty but also polite!” as Lee sums up the general response of South Korean commentators.
Misogyny aside, let’s take a closer look at two claims in Lee’s sentence: That South Korean officials changed policy in response to Kim Yo Jong and that the policy change amounted to an exceptional human rights violation for an advanced democracy.
The policy in question was the decision in December 2020 by the South Korean parliament to ban the flying of propaganda balloons into North Korea. According to Lee, South Korean politicians were motivated to pass this law because Kim Yo Jong demanded six months earlier that South Korean criminalize the launching of balloons.
Lee neglects to discuss that arguments about these balloons, which often contain Bibles, anti-government flyers, dollars, and thumb drives with South Korean videos, had long been taking place in South Korea. In 2014, when these balloons provoked a huge debate in South Korean society, both the ruling party and the opposition largely agreed that the launches were provocative and to be avoided (how to avoid them remained a point of contention).
The launches were also without question dangerous for those who picked up the airborne packages. Imprisonment and execution are not uncommon for North Koreans caught with Bibles or materials from South Korea.
Moreover, Lee leaves out the fact that the leadership of North and South had agreed in 2018 to stop the psychological warfare the two sides had been waging. Although not state-sponsored, the balloon launches certainly seem to fall into the category of psychological warfare.
So, South Korea’s legislature had plenty of reasons to pass the bill that had nothing to do with Kim Yo Jong and her threats.
Second, was the bill a human rights violation? Pejoratively labelled the “Gag Law” by its opponents, the bill certainly criminalized certain activities. But the balloon activists were effectively engaged in regime-change efforts that endangered the recipients of their messages as well as the efforts at the governmental level to reduce inter-Korean tensions. One could have an interesting argument about whether such activities lie outside the protections of free speech. But to call it a human rights violation “the likes of which shall seldom, if ever, be observed in another advanced democracy” certainly falls into the category of overstatement.
Other claims in the book seem equally overstated. Lee argues that the fate of the hereditary dictatorship “may yet lie in her hands.” That’s theoretically possible, but Kim Jong Un is thought to have three children who would more likely be his successors. Also, the patriarchal nature of the North Korean system militates against a female ruler.
Elsewhere, Lee argues that “North Korea’s ruling family has never faced any serious existential challenge: not a popular uprising or even organized public protest worthy of the name.” Although it’s true that there hasn’t been any significant uprising in North Korea, the ruling family certainly faced a serious existential challenge when the country’s industry and agriculture collapsed in the early 1990s and a terrifying famine ensued.
Other recent challenges came from within, like a thwarted army uprising in 1995. After the death of Kim Jong Il, his brother-in-law Jang Song Thaek represented a potential China-aligned challenge to the Kim Jong Un leadership. Lee portrays the execution of Jang as the result of a family disagreement, but it was more likely a serious factional dispute within the North Korean system.
Kim Jong Un — and by extension his sister — is undeniably brutal. But Lee is too quick to accept stories of this or that official being executed at their command (some, like diplomat Kim Hyok Chol, were later reported to be alive).
Lee also dismisses the notion that fear of regime change dominates the thinking of North Korean officials. “The Kim rulers have never had any real concern about an imminent U.S. attack, despite playing this up for both domestic and foreign consumption to justify oppression and nuclearization,” he writes. And yet North Korean leaders have often referenced the U.S. bombing of Belgrade during the Kosovo war and the efforts to remove Muammar Qaddafi in Libya as cautionary examples. The Kims might be mistaken about U.S. enthusiasm for regime change, but it’s unlikely that they “never had any real concern” about these threats.
Perhaps the most significant distortion of the book is its portrayal of South Korean and U.S. diplomats as consistently duped by North Korea. It’s certainly true that North Koreans have proven to be cagey negotiators. The government, after all, managed to acquire nuclear weapons even as North Korean officials engaged in denuclearization negotiations. North Koreans have excelled at using the weapons of the weak to make the best of a bad situation.
But engagement between North and South is not only about official conflict de-escalation between the two countries, which has had a mixed record of success (as opposed to the unmitigated failure that Lee suggests). It’s also about helping ordinary North Koreans with humanitarian assistance and running programs — like the divided family reunions and the Kaesong Industrial Complex — that have promoted people-to-people contact.
Kim Yo Jong is a Party functionary with an exalted bloodline, something of importance for North Korea’s ruling elite. But her power is constrained by gender and by the limits of her country’s influence in the world. It would be a mistake to underestimate her. But it is also a mistake to portray her as some demonic puppet master who controls the fate of the Korean peninsula if not the world. Exaggeration and thin speculation, in the end, are no substitute for the details of Kim Yo Jong’s life and ideology, which remain only a little less of a mystery after reading Lee’s book.
Originally published in Korea Quarterly.
counterpunch.org · by John Feffer · December 22, 2023
5. B-1 Bombers Fly in Second Trilateral Exercise with Japan and S Korea
north Korean provocations just keep making the alliances and trilateral cooperations stronger.
B-1 Bombers Fly in Second Trilateral Exercise with Japan and S Korea
airandspaceforces.com · by Unshin Harpley · December 21, 2023
Dec. 21, 2023 | By Unshin Lee Harpley
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Two U.S. Air Force B-1B bombers flew from the mainland U.S. to participate for the second ever trilateral aerial exercise with South Korea and Japan on Dec. 20—the latest in a surge of bomber exercises over the Korean Peninsula in 2023.
The bombers, assigned to the 28th Bomb Wing at Ellsworth Air Force Base, S.D., have now returned to Ellsworth as of Dec. 21, a 7th Air Force spokesperson told Air & Space Forces Magazine.
U.S. F-16 fighters assigned to the 8th Fighter Wing and the 35th Fighter Wing, along with South Korean F-15Ks and Japanese F-2s, escorted the two bombers over the waters near South Korea’s southernmost island, Jeju. KC-135 Stratotankers stationed at a U.S. base in Japan also provided aerial refueling support for the B-1Bs during the trilateral exercise, the spokesperson added.
In late January 2023, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III promised during a visit to South Korea, formally known as the Republic of Korea, that the U.S. would step up its military exercises with the ROK, to include expanded use of air assets like bombers.
That pledge was followed by regular appearances of B-1 and B-52 bombers above or near the Korean Peninsula nearly every month. The Dec. 20 exercise marked the Lancer’s sixth appearance in a joint exercise with the ROK this year, while the Stratofortress has participated eight times, including a historic touchdown on the Korean Peninsula in October, a sight not seen for the last three decades:
- On Feb. 1, two B-1s and F-22 Raptors flew with South Korean F-35s over the Yellow Sea.
- On Feb. 19, two B-1s flew with F-16s and ROK F-35s through the Korean Air Defense Identification Zone.
- On March 3, one B-1 flew with South Korean F-15K and KF-16 fighters over the Yellow Sea.
- On March 6, one B-52 flew with South Korean F-15s and F-16s through the Korean ADIZ.
- On March 19, two B-1s flew with F-16s and South Korean F-35s.
- On April 5, one B-52 flew with U.S. F-35Bs and F-16s and South Korean F-35s
- On April 14, B-52s flew with USAF F-16s and ROKAF F-35s.
- On June 30, multiple B-52s flew with USAF F-16s and F-15Es and ROKAF F-35As and KF-16s.
- On July 13, one B-52 flew with USAF F-16s and ROKAF F-15s over the peninsula.
- On Aug. 30, one B-1 flew with USAF F-16s and ROKAF FA-50s.
- On Oct. 17, a B-52 landed in South Korea and participated in a joint drill with South Korean F-35s.
- On Oct. 22, that B-52 flew with three U.S. F-16s, two South Korean F-15Ks, and four Japanese F-2s.
- On Nov. 15, one B-52 was escorted by USAF F-16s, U.S. Marine Corps F-35Bs, and ROKAF KF-15s and KF-35s.
The October exercise between the U.S., South Korea, and Japan, marked the first ever trilateral air training between the three countries—Dec. 20 marked the second such occasion.
The increase in exercises comes as North Korea continues to advance its nuclear capabilities, along with growing threats from Russia and China. Washington’s non-nuclear allies increasingly rely on U.S. bombers for visible shows of deterrence.
For the second time this year, fighter aircraft from the U.S., Japan, and the Republic of Korea conducted a trilateral escort flight of U.S. bombers operating in the Indo-Pacific, Dec. 20, 2023. Photo by Senior Airman Karla Parra
This latest exercise was held two days after North Korea launched an intercontinental ballistic missile launch on Dec. 18. Pyongyang’s state media claimed it reached an altitude of 4,050 miles, covering a distance of 622.6 miles, and accurately hit the intended target in the sea.
On Dec. 19, a day after Pyongyang’s missile launch, the Pentagon announced the full activation of a real-time North Korean missile warning data sharing mechanism with South Korea and Japan.
The Department of Defense also confirmed the joint establishment of a comprehensive multiyear trilateral exercise plan the same day, hinting at a potentially increased presence of U.S. bombers in the region in 2024.
Air
airandspaceforces.com · by Unshin Harpley · December 21, 2023
6. Next-Gen Interceptor Is Pentagon’s Only Option For Defeating Future North Korean ICBMs
Next-Gen Interceptor Is Pentagon’s Only Option For Defeating Future North Korean ICBMs
Forbes · by Loren Thompson · December 21, 2023
NGI will supplement and replace existing defensive weapons such as this ground-based interceptor.
Defense.gov
On December 17 North Korea successfully tested an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching any point in America. It was the third such test this year.
U.S. policymakers have spent two decades neglecting this threat. With each nuclear advance that Pyongyang reports, doubts are voiced. Maybe nuclear devices are too big to put on a missile. Maybe they can’t survive the stresses of reentry. Maybe they won’t be accurate enough to hit targets.
The latest sign that much of official Washington doesn’t grasp the danger is a December 19 report by Jason Sherman of InsideDefense.com revealing that Pentagon budgeteers might cut the only program the Pentagon has for intercepting future North Korean ICBMs by 25% in next year’s budget.
Apparently planners think they can use the money saved to fund higher priorities.
These people need to wake up. There is no higher military priority, because no country is more likely to actually use nuclear weapons against America. North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un keeps declaring that he will do so if his regime is threatened.
A single 500-kiloton warhead airburst over Los Angeles would cause devastation in a circle measuring 12 miles across, killing millions and likely collapsing the domestic economy.
Experts estimate Pyongyang has enough nuclear material to build 20-60 nuclear warheads. Can engineers put them on long-range missiles? The Koreans say they can. If they can’t today, it is just a matter of time before they can.
On the same day Jason Sherman’s report appeared, Mary Beth Nikitin of the Congressional Research Service produced an updated report detailing all the steps North Korea is taking to build up its nuclear arsenal. It has conducted over 80 tests of tactical and strategic ballistic missiles in the last two years alone. It has tested nuclear devices six times since 2006, with steadily increasing explosive yields.
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The country has even demonstrated the ability to launch ballistic missiles from submarines—meaning nuclear weapons might be secretly deployed only minutes away from their targets in the U.S.
All of that is bad enough, but U.S. intelligence agencies are warning that now the North Koreans are focusing on how to overcome the modest defenses that the Pentagon has deployed for intercepting such weapons.
Pyongyang has plenty of options. It could increase its inventory of long-range missiles, knowing that more than a dozen would likely overwhelm U.S. defenders (the Pentagon plans 64 interceptors, but might need up to four for each target).
Or they could put multiple warheads on each missile. Or they could make the warheads maneuverable. Or they could deploy penetration aids like decoys that confuse defenders.
You get the idea. Pyongyang has plenty of options if it chooses to spend the money. The Pentagon has only one option. It is called the Next Generation Interceptor, and it was conceived to counter likely advances in the threat.
That’s the program the Biden administration is contemplating using as a billpayer for other priorities.
The Next Generation Interceptor, or NGI, was launched after an earlier effort to make existing interceptors more effective faltered. In 2021, contracts were awarded to Lockheed Martin LMT and a Northrop Grumman NOC -RTX team to competitively develop designs capable of defeating the projected threat.
These three companies may be the only sources in the world capable of providing a robust solution to the danger. Lockheed and RTX contribute to my think tank.
If NGI progresses as planned, the Pentagon will purchase at least 20 interceptors equipped with multiple hit-to-kill warheads capable of smashing incoming targets to smithereens. The interceptors will rely on radar and other sensors operated by the military services to detect, track and sort out incoming weapons.
The new interceptors will be modular, fully digital, and capable of evolving with the threat. They won’t be cheap, but compared with the cost of even one North Korean nuclear warhead detonating on an America city, they will be a bargain.
Assuming the Biden administration goes forward with its proposed funding cut, competition will probably end in selection of a winning design next year, rather than 2025 as previously planned. If NGI gets fielded sooner, fine. But if it falters because of a premature down-select, that would be a disaster.
Congress should being paying attention. Nobody wants the fate of American civilization dependent on the addled thought process of a brutal, unpredictable dictator.
Disclosure: As noted above, Lockheed Martin and RTX contribute to my think tank, the Lexington Institute.
Forbes · by Loren Thompson · December 21, 2023
7. South Korean court orders Japanese firms to compensate more wartime Korean workers for forced labor
And of course this is what could weaken ROK-Japan bilateral cooperation.
South Korean court orders Japanese firms to compensate more wartime Korean workers for forced labor
The Washington Post · by Hyung-Jin Kim | AP · December 21, 2023
SEOUL, South Korea — South Korea’s top court ordered two Japanese companies to financially compensate more of their wartime Korean workers for forced labor, as it sided Thursday with its contentious 2018 verdicts on the firms that caused a huge setback in relations between the Asian neighbors.
But observers said that Thursday’s ruling won’t likely hurt bilateral ties much since Seoul and Tokyo, now governed by different leaders, are pushing hard to bolster their partnerships in the face of shared challenges like North Korea’s evolving nuclear threats and China’s increasing assertiveness.
The Supreme Court ruled that Mitsubishi Heavy Industries must provide between 100 million and 150 million won ($76,700 and $115,000) in compensation to each of four plaintiffs — all bereaved families of its former employees who were forced to work for the company during Japan’s 1910-45 colonial rule of the Korean Peninsula. The court also said Nippon Steel Corp. must give 100 million won (about $76,700) to each of seven Korean plaintiffs, also all bereaved relatives, for similar colonial-era forced labor.
“I felt so sad when I heard the name of (my father) being stated as the deceased at today’s trial, but I was still really glad that we won — though it’s a bit late,” said Joo Soon-ja, daughter of the late Joo Seok-bong, a forced laborer, as she held her father’s large framed photo.
In two separate verdicts in 2018, the top South Korean court ordered Mitsubishi and Nippon Steel to compensate a total of 15 other Korean employees for forced labor. That irked Japan, which has insisted all compensation issues were already settled by a 1965 bilateral treaty that normalized their diplomatic relations. But the 2018 South Korean court rulings said that the treaty can’t prevent individuals from seeking compensation for forced labor, because Japanese companies’ use of such laborers were “acts of illegality against humanity” that were linked to Tokyo’s illegal colonial occupation and its war of aggression.
In Thursday’s ruling, the South Korean Supreme Court cited that argument in one of the 2018 verdicts, saying it paved the way for “a judicial remedy for forced labor victims within Republic of Korea.” Japan’s chief Cabinet secretary, Yoshimasa Hayashi, called the ruling “absolutely unacceptable,” saying it clearly violated the 1965 treaty.
The wrangling touched off by the 2018 rulings led to the two countries downgrading each other’s trade status, and Seoul’s previous liberal government threatening to spike a military intelligence-sharing pact. Their strained ties complicated efforts by the United States to build a stronger trilateral Washington-Seoul-Tokyo cooperation to counter challenges posed by North Korea and China.
The Seoul-Tokyo relations, however, began thawing after South Korea’s current conservative president, Yoon Suk Yeol, announced in March that his country would use a local corporate fund to compensate forced labor victims without demanding Japanese contributions. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida later expressed sympathy for the suffering of Korean forced laborers during a Seoul visit. The two countries revived high-level talks and withdrew economic retaliatory steps against each other.
On Thursday, the two countries held their first high-level economic talks in Seoul in about eight years and agreed to work together to realize substantial cooperation on economic sectors based on improving ties, according to South Korea’s Foreign Ministry.
Eleven of the 15 former forced laborers or their families involved in the 2018 rulings had accepted compensation under Seoul’s third-party reimbursement plan, but the remaining four still refuse to accept it, according to Lee Kook Un, a leader of their support group. He said that about 70 other suits seeking damages from more than 10 Japanese companies are still pending in South Korean courts.
Lim Soosuk, spokesperson of South Korea’s Foreign Ministry, told reporters Thursday that the government would try to provide compensation to the Korean plaintiffs related to Thursday’s ruling through the third-party reimbursement system as well. He said that the South Korean government would also continue necessary communication with Japan.
Choi Eunmi, a Japan expert at the Seoul-based Asan Institute for Policy Studies, said that Thursday’s ruling “won’t likely cause big troubles in Korea-Japan relationships,” because South Korea has already determined how to handle such verdicts with the establishment of the domestic compensation fund.
Choi said that because some forced labor victims refuse to accept compensation under the third-party reimbursement system, the South Korean fund hasn’t completely resolved the issue. But she said an attempt by a future South Korean government to spike the system would undermine South Korea’s credibility in Japan and deteriorate bilateral ties severely.
Yoon’s push to improve ties with Japan drew strong backlash from some of the forced labor victims and liberal opposition politicians, who have demanded direct compensation from the Japanese companies. But Yoon defended his move, saying it’s essential to boosting ties with Japan to jointly cope with North Korea’s advancing nuclear arsenal, the intensifying U.S.-China rivalry and global supply chain challenges.
___
Associated Press writers Jiwon Song in Seoul and Mari Yamaguchi in Tokyo contributed to this report.
The Washington Post · by Hyung-Jin Kim | AP · December 21, 2023
8. S. Korea stages independent tabletop exercise simulating N.K. nuclear attack
Good. The ROK needs to have these internal discussions and exercises. They will come to the NCG table top exercises better prepared.
S. Korea stages independent tabletop exercise simulating N.K. nuclear attack | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · December 22, 2023
SEOUL, Dec. 22 (Yonhap) -- South Korea staged an independent tabletop exercise simulating a North Korean nuclear attack this year as part of efforts to hone response capabilities against the North's military threats, the defense ministry said Friday.
The ministry noted the discussion-based exercise as one of its key accomplishments this year in a meeting presided over by Defense Minister Shin Won-sik to evaluate progress in the Defense Innovation 4.0 plan aimed at bolstering the country's defense capabilities.
The exercise took place in August during major summertime drills between South Korea and the United States, discussing retaliatory measures against a North Korean nuclear attack and calculating damage in such a scenario, according to a source.
South Korea has previously staged tabletop drills focusing on the North's possible use of nuclear weapons with U.S. officials.
The ministry said it plans to strengthen exercises next year under such scenarios, while continuing efforts to enhance the credibility of the U.S. "extended deterrence" commitment by increasing the deployment of key U.S. military assets.
Extended deterrence refers to the U.S. commitment to using the full-range of its military capabilities, including nuclear, to defend an ally.
On Thursday, the defense ministry's budget for next year was confirmed at 59.42 trillion won (US$45.6 billion), up 4.2 percent from this year, after the National Assembly passed the government's overall budget plan.
The ministry plans to spend a total of 17.65 trillion won next year to improve defense capabilities, up 4.4 percent over the same period.
This file photo, provided by the defense ministry on June 1, 2023, shows a long-range surface-to-air missile system conducting a missile interception test at an undisclosed location. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Chae Yun-hwan · December 22, 2023
9. N. Korea to hold key parliamentary meeting on Jan. 15 to discuss budget
Budget? The regime must be thankful for its illicit activities.
N. Korea to hold key parliamentary meeting on Jan. 15 to discuss budget | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · December 22, 2023
SEOUL, Dec. 22 (Yonhap) -- North Korea plans to convene a key parliamentary meeting next month to discuss the state budget for 2024, state media said Friday.
The standing committee of the Supreme People's Assembly (SPA) made a decision to hold the 10th session of the 14th SPA on Jan. 15, according to the North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
"The session will discuss the settlement of the implementation of the state budget" for 2023 and the issue of next year's state budget, the KCNA said.
The announcement came amid fresh tensions on the Korean Peninsula over North Korea's launch of a Hwasong-18 intercontinental ballistic missile Monday. It marked the North's fifth ICBM launch this year -- the highest number ever recorded in a single year.
The standing committee of the Supreme People's Assembly convenes for a plenary meeting at the Mansudae Assembly Hall on Dec. 21, 2023, in this photo released by the Korean Central News Agency the next day. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution)
mlee@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · December 22, 2023
10. N. Korea condemns G7 over possible seizure of Russian assets for Ukraine aid
north Korea supports one of its patterns in the axis of authoritarians.
N. Korea condemns G7 over possible seizure of Russian assets for Ukraine aid | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · December 22, 2023
SEOUL, Dec. 22 (Yonhap) -- North Korea on Friday lambasted the Group of Seven (G7) economic powers as a "club of robbers" over their possible plan to seize Russia's overseas assets and provide financial support to Ukraine.
The criticism came in response to a report by the Financial Times that the G7 have stepped up discussions in recent weeks over spending part of some US$300 billion worth of immobilized Russian assets to support Ukraine.
"The G7, a closed group which is glared upon for deteriorating global peace and obstructing the autonomous development of other countries under the manipulation of the United States has now set on to rob other's asset in broad daylight," the North's official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said in a commentary.
The KCNA said the U.S., which serves as the leader of the G7, has failed to find new measures to support Ukraine and said there are rumors that Ukraine will completely collapse by next summer should support from Western countries cease.
In October, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov thanked North Korea for supporting Russia's war in Ukraine during his trip to Pyongyang.
This Jan. 8, 2023, file photo shows a badly damaged apartment building in Irpin, near the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, amid Russia's war in Ukraine. (Yonhap)
mlee@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · December 22, 2023
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
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