Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

"The best way to predict the future is to create it."

– Abraham Lincoln

“There are far better things ahead than any we leave behind.”

– C.S. Lewis

“What is at the heart of the matter is how we look at the world around us. There are those who believe that it is not worthwhile to try – that life just is and you float along with it, that human nature never changes and human beings are unable to improve the conditions of mankind, that it is futile to set any goals for ourselves or our nation.

I could not disagree more strongly. I believe that the very essence of a worthwhile life is in the striving. I do not fear the possibility of failure so much as the resigned acceptance of what is mediocre or wrong.”

– President Jimmy Carter.

1. South Korea Jet Crash Sparks Debate Over Barrier’s Proximity to Runway

2. DOD Announces Additional Aid for Ukraine, Assesses 1,000 North Korean Casualties in Russia's Kursk Region

3. The Case Against South Korea Building Nuclear Weapons

4. Jeju Air crash highlights need for revised regulations on airport runway safety zones

5. 3-way cooperation with U.S., Japan key to deterring N.K. threats: diplomatic white paper

6. Acting President Choi appoints 2 justices to Constitutional Court

7. Presidential office says Choi exceeded his authority with Constitutional Court justice appointments

8. Detention warrant issued for Yoon over martial law, 1st issuance for sitting president

9. Yoon's defense team files injunction against detention warrant for impeached president

10. Analysis: Biden spent four years building up US alliances in Asia. Will they survive Trump’s next term?

11. Trump's secretary of state nominee voices 'deepest condolences' over deadly plane crash in S. Korea

12. Can the CIO arrest President Yoon over insurrection charges?

13. [KOREA TIMES POLL] Majority of Koreans back changes to limit presidential powers

14. Kim Jong-un sends letter to Putin vowing to strengthen military cooperation with Russia

15. Moscow’s War Plans Against Japan, South Korea Leaked

16. North Korean troops making ‘human wave’ attacks against Ukrainian forces, US says

17. South Korea poised to crash and burn in 2025

18. US experts: Kim Jong-un's anti-American remarks are a negotiating strategy to Trump

19. [Special Roundtable: The Path North Korea Is Taking] ② “Eradicate the Remnants of Capitalism”

20. Kim Jong-un ends year with lavish letter to Putin, sidelining China

21. North Korea quietly honors war dead as casualties in Russia climb

1. South Korea Jet Crash Sparks Debate Over Barrier’s Proximity to Runway

Everytime I see the video at the link I wish it was AI generated and not the real thing.

Still so many questions.

South Korea Jet Crash Sparks Debate Over Barrier’s Proximity to Runway

U.S. and international aviation regulators developed standards years ago for structures near the tarmac to guard planes from hitting equipment at airports

https://www.wsj.com/business/airlines/south-korea-jet-crash-sparks-debate-over-barriers-proximity-to-runway-ed4212c3?st=YWw7mu&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

By Andrew Tangel

Follow in Minneapolis and Timothy W. Martin

Follow and Soobin Kim in Seoul

Dec. 31, 2024 4:02 am ET

Rescuers work near the wreckage of the Jeju Air aircraft. Photo: kim hong-ji/Reuters

The Jeju Air crash has raised concerns about the design of a South Korean airport and whether a concrete-reinforced mound beyond the runway played a significant role in one of the deadliest plane accidents in recent years.

Investigators probing the Dec. 29 crash that killed 179 people are seeking clues on why the plane hit the tarmac at Muan International Airport without its landing gear down after an apparent bird strike. There were just two survivors.

Structures like the one in the Jeju Air 089590 -8.65%decrease; red down pointing triangle crash aren’t unusual at airports around the world, but a patchwork of international standards has influenced where they are placed and how they are constructed. U.S. regulators moved decades ago to standardize buffer zones near runways and introduce other safeguards to minimize casualties and damage should planes slide off the tarmac.

South Korean officials on Tuesday said the airport’s design didn’t violate national safety protocols and cautioned that more reviews were needed.

Aviation-safety experts and industry officials said the layout at Muan likely made the crash far deadlier.

Safety areas at most large commercial U.S. airports extend 1,000 feet from the end of runways, and are about 500 feet wide, according to the Federal Aviation Administration. That is larger than the international standard of those zones being at least 787 feet long and 295 feet wide. South Korean officials said the structure at Muan is more than 800 feet from the end of the airport’s lone runway.

“That airplane was doing absolutely fine till it hit that,” said John Cox, a former Boeing 737 airline pilot who is now an aviation-safety consultant. The structure, he said, “contributed certainly to the severity of the accident.”

DOD Announces Additional Aid for Ukraine, Assesses 1,000 North Korean Casualties in Russia's Kursk Region

https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/4018068/dod-announces-additional-aid-for-ukraine-assesses-1000-north-korean-casualties/

Dec. 30, 2024 | By Matthew Olay, DOD News |

The Defense Department today announced it will be providing close to $2.5 billion in additional new security assistance support to Ukraine intended to reaffirm the department's commitment to supporting Ukraine's defense against Russian aggression.

The latest aid package includes a $1.25 billion presidential drawdown authority package, as well as $1.22 billion in additional funds through the Ukrainian Security Assistance Initiative, Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh told members of the media this morning.

"Together, these packages deliver critical capabilities such as air defense systems, munitions for artillery and rocket systems, anti-tank weapons, unmanned aerial systems and more," Singh said.

She added that the aid packages mark the current administration's 73rd drawdown package and the 23rd package provided by the U.S. Agency for International Development.

"[This assistance reflects] our continued efforts with our over 50 allies and partners through the Ukraine Defense Contact Group to ensure Ukraine has what it needs to be successful on the battlefield and to defend its sovereignty," Singh said.

Founded under the direction of Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III in response to Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, the UDCG is a coalition of some 50 nations that meet regularly to discuss Ukraine's security needs.

Austin intends to convene the 25th meeting of the UDCG alongside Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov in the new year where the capability coalitions will lay out their roadmaps toward "efficient and sustainable support for Ukraine," a senior defense official said earlier this month.

When asked as to whether Austin intends to brief whomever the next administration's incoming defense secretary is regarding the value of assistance the UDCG provides to Ukraine, Singh said that — while she can't speak for the incoming secretary and whether that person might request a conversation on the UDCG — there are many people working within DOD who understand the importance of the group.

"The UDCG continues to be a convening forum to work with allies and partners in finding and providing Ukraine with what it needs, and [who are] working together as multiple countries literally come around the table," Singh said.

Also, during the briefing, Singh remarked that DOD concurs with a recent White House assessment of how many North Korean casualties there have been as a result of fighting against Ukraine in Russia's Kursk region.

"The White House recently announced that approximately 1,000 [Democratic People's Republic of Korea] soldiers have either been killed or wounded in the Kursk region. That's our assessment as well," Singh said.

She added that the assaults the North Korean soldiers are launching in the region are not proving significantly effective, and that the North Koreans are taking on a "significant amount" of casualties.

3. The Case Against South Korea Building Nuclear Weapons

Interesting arguments. But rather than a "grand strategy of restraint" in Korea, we need a strategy that focuses on solving the "Korea question" so that we can achieve stability in Northeast Asia.

Please also keep in mind that this discussion supports Kim Jong Un's political warfare strategy. He wants this discussion because it has the potential to undermine the ROK/US alliance. This discussion must continue but all the participants in the discussion should acknowledge that if not checked and acknowledged that it will support Kim Jong Un's political warfare strategy it will weaken the alliance and undermine the number one priority which is to deter war under the Korea question can be solved.

Excerpts:

The argument for South Korea’s nuclearization—whether through an indigenous arsenal or the deployment of U.S. nuclear weapons—is a dangerous and shortsighted response to the security challenges it faces. While the threats posed by North Korea and China are real, they do not justify actions that would destabilize the region and undermine global non-proliferation efforts. A grand strategy of restraint, rooted in diplomatic engagement, strengthened conventional capabilities, and multilateral cooperation, offers a far more prudent path to security. South Korea has much to lose by pursuing nuclear weapons and much to gain by upholding its commitments to the NPT and its alliance with the United States.

Restraint is a strategic and moral imperative, reflecting a commitment to peace and stability in one of the world’s most volatile regions. At a time when the international order is evolving into something more complex and multipolar, restraint ensures that South Korea and its allies navigate these challenges without succumbing to the temptations of escalation and proliferation.

The Case Against South Korea Building Nuclear Weapons

19fortyfive.com · by Andrew Latham · December 30, 2024

The recent Foreign Affairs article, “Why South Korea Should Go Nuclear” by Robert E. Kelly and Min-hyung Kim, argues that South Korea’s acquisition of nuclear weapons is not only justified but necessary to counter the threats posed by North Korea and an increasingly assertive China. However, this proposal is built on flawed assumptions that fail to withstand scrutiny. It presumes that an independent South Korean nuclear arsenal would enhance security, disregarding the destabilizing consequences of proliferation and the sufficiency of the U.S. nuclear umbrella. The article also mischaracterizes the current geopolitical environment as analogous to a Cold War-style standoff, ignoring the complexity of the Indo-Pacific region and the multipolar nature of today’s international order.

Through the lens of restraint, a more thoughtful approach emerges—one that addresses security concerns while avoiding the catastrophic risks inherent in nuclear escalation.

Time for South Korean Nuclear Weapons? Not Exactly

One of the most glaring misconceptions in Kelly and Kim’s argument is the assumption that an independent nuclear arsenal would enhance South Korea’s security.

In reality, such an action would destabilize the region and potentially trigger a cascade of proliferation. Japan, for example, may feel compelled to follow suit, given its security concerns vis-à-vis North Korea and China. This domino effect would increase the likelihood of miscalculation and accidental conflict, eroding decades of progress in global arms control. Rather than enhancing stability, a South Korean nuclear weapons program would exacerbate regional insecurity and heighten the risk of catastrophic confrontation. The article’s failure to address these dynamics reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of the broader consequences of nuclear proliferation.

Another flawed premise is the assertion that South Korea needs its own nuclear weapons because the U.S. nuclear umbrella is insufficient. This argument fundamentally misreads the role and effectiveness of extended deterrence. The U.S.-ROK alliance has provided robust security guarantees through American nuclear capabilities, which have been a cornerstone of South Korea’s defense since the Korean War. The presence of U.S. forces on the Korean Peninsula ensures that any attack on South Korea would automatically involve the United States, making the deterrence framework highly credible. Introducing an independent South Korean arsenal would undermine this alliance by signaling a lack of trust in U.S. commitments. Such a move risks fracturing one of the most effective security partnerships in the world, leaving South Korea more vulnerable, not less.

Even the deployment of U.S. nuclear weapons to South Korea—another idea floated by some proponents of nuclearization—would be a strategic misstep. Such a deployment would provoke North Korea, destabilize the region, and strain relations with China, which would likely see this as a direct escalation aimed at Beijing.

Furthermore, it would violate the spirit of the 1991 Joint Declaration on the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, undermining international non-proliferation norms and reducing Seoul’s moral authority in advocating for a denuclearized peninsula.

Looking at the Strategic Environment Through Restraint

The portrayal of the current strategic environment as analogous to a Cold War-style standoff is another deeply flawed premise. This is not a reprise of Cold War 2.0, and the challenges facing South Korea demand a far more nuanced approach than the simplistic solution of nuclearization. A strategy of restraint—emphasizing diplomatic engagement, non-proliferation, and strengthened conventional defense capabilities—offers a sustainable and effective path to security. Restraint does not imply passivity or appeasement; it recognizes that the risks associated with escalation and proliferation far outweigh the potential benefits of nuclearization. The stakes are simply too high to abandon this approach in favor of actions that would upend the regional balance of power.

South Korea’s history demonstrates the value of restraint and diplomacy in managing tensions. The 2018 inter-Korean summits and subsequent U.S.-North Korea negotiations, though imperfect, showed that dialogue can reduce the risk of conflict. A renewed focus on diplomacy, backed by international partners, could help de-escalate tensions and create conditions for long-term stability. Instead of pursuing nuclear weapons, South Korea should channel its resources into its already formidable conventional military capabilities. Advanced missile defense systems, cyber capabilities, and enhanced intelligence-sharing with allies can bolster deterrence without crossing the nuclear threshold. These measures address immediate security concerns while avoiding the destabilizing consequences of proliferation.

What Should South Korea Do?

By refraining from nuclearization, South Korea would reinforce its commitment to the global non-proliferation regime. This stance strengthens Seoul’s credibility in advocating for denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula and beyond. A nuclear-armed South Korea, by contrast, would undermine its position and weaken international efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons. Additionally, the development of an indigenous arsenal or the deployment of U.S. nuclear weapons would escalate tensions with China.

While Beijing’s rise as a regional power is a legitimate concern, nuclear weapons are not the solution. South Korea’s security vis-à-vis China is best addressed through multilateral frameworks and alliances, not unilateral nuclearization. Initiatives like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue and enhanced cooperation with ASEAN, Japan, and Australia can counterbalance China’s influence without provoking an arms race. Moreover, Seoul should leverage its economic ties with Beijing to encourage responsible behavior, recognizing that China has a vested interest in regional stability.

Hwasong-17 North Korea ICBM. Image Credit: North Korean State Media Release.

Historical precedents further debunk Kelly and Kim’s assumptions. During the Cold War, the introduction of nuclear weapons into volatile regions often heightened tensions and increased the risk of conflict. The Cuban Missile Crisis brought the world to the brink of nuclear war, underscoring the dangers of miscalculation in a nuclearized environment. In contrast, restraint has proven effective in managing proliferation risks. South Africa’s decision to dismantle its nuclear arsenal and Brazil and Argentina’s abandonment of nuclear ambitions demonstrate that security can be achieved through non-nuclear means. These examples highlight viable alternatives to proliferation, even in challenging security environments.

The argument for South Korea’s nuclearization—whether through an indigenous arsenal or the deployment of U.S. nuclear weapons—is a dangerous and shortsighted response to the security challenges it faces. While the threats posed by North Korea and China are real, they do not justify actions that would destabilize the region and undermine global non-proliferation efforts. A grand strategy of restraint, rooted in diplomatic engagement, strengthened conventional capabilities, and multilateral cooperation, offers a far more prudent path to security. South Korea has much to lose by pursuing nuclear weapons and much to gain by upholding its commitments to the NPT and its alliance with the United States.

Restraint is a strategic and moral imperative, reflecting a commitment to peace and stability in one of the world’s most volatile regions. At a time when the international order is evolving into something more complex and multipolar, restraint ensures that South Korea and its allies navigate these challenges without succumbing to the temptations of escalation and proliferation.

Image of North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un. Image Credit: North Korean State Media.

About the Author: Andrew Latham

Andrew Latham is a Professor of International Relations and Political Theory; and Special Advisor to the President of Macalester College, Saint Paul, MN. He is also a Non-Resident Fellow, Defense Priorities, Washington, DC; a Senior Washington Fellow with the Institute for Peace and Diplomacy also in Washington, DC; a 2023-25 Education Ambassador with the Council on Foreign Relations; an Opinion Contributor with The Hill in Washington, DC; and an Opinion Contributor with RealClearDefense.

19fortyfive.com · by Andrew Latham · December 30, 2024

4. Jeju Air crash highlights need for revised regulations on airport runway safety zones

Sadly this is a BFO - a blinding flash of the obvious. (it seems obvious NOW) But why did it take this crash to see this problem? How many other safety problems are hiding in plain sight from us around the world?

Jeju Air crash highlights need for revised regulations on airport runway safety zones | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Chang Dong-woo · December 31, 2024

SEOUL, Dec. 31 (Yonhap) -- Aviation experts on Tuesday highlighted the need to revise regulations governing airport safety, including those on runway safety zones, amid growing views that a concrete structure near the runway may have exacerbated the severity of casualties in the Jeju Air crash this week.

The concrete structure near the runway at Muan International Airport holds a navigation system that assists in aircraft landings, known as a localizer, and is located about 250 meters from the end of the runway.

The Jeju Air B737-800 aircraft belly-landed at the airport and exploded Sunday as it crashed into the structure, killing 179 of the 181 people on board.

Many experts have suggested the casualty count could have been much lower had the concrete structure not existed.

The transport ministry has defended the positioning of the localizer, stating that it was installed in compliance with existing regulations.

The government's aviation obstacle management guideline requires all equipment or installations deemed obstacles on airport premises to be mounted on frangible structures, but this applies only within the designated runway end safety area (RESA).

RESA refers to the zone beyond the end of the runway designed to prevent aircraft damage in the event of an overrun or landing short of the runway.

A police forensic team conducts an on-site investigation at the scene of the Jeju Air crash at Muan International Airport in southwestern South Korea on Dec. 31, 2024. (Yonhap)

The ministry said the localizer equipment at Muan was not subject to this requirement, as it had been set up outside the airport's 199 meter-long RESA.

The minimum required RESA distance under international standards is 90 meters, according to the ministry, though the recommended distance is 240 meters.

The ministry acknowledged that some domestic airports, including those in Sacheon, Gyeongju and Muan, have RESAs shorter than the recommended 240 meters.

A separate government guideline pertaining to the design of airport and airfield facilities, meanwhile, stipulates that localizers should be included within the extended RESA for precision approach runways.

Experts, however, have emphasized the need to revise related regulations, with most agreeing that the presence of the localizer exacerbated the impact of the crash.

"While there may be no legal issues under current rules, these regulations date back to a time when accidents like this hadn't occurred," said Chung Yoon-shik, an aviation professor at Catholic Kwandong University.

"Now that an accident has happened, the regulations need to be improved," he added.

Hwang Ho-won, a professor of aerospace law at Korea Aerospace University, echoed such a view, insisting that the issue is not solely about RESA distances.

"The improperly installed concrete mound should first be removed and an engineered materials arrestor system (EMAS) should be installed," Hwang said.

EMAS allows aircraft to sink into a lightweight material, which helps planes to rapidly decelerate when overrunning a runway.

Hwang added, "For airports with shorter RESA, an EMAS can significantly increase friction to reduce the speed of aircraft, enhancing safety during overruns or aborted takeoffs."

odissy@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Chang Dong-woo · December 31, 2024

5. 3-way cooperation with U.S., Japan key to deterring N.K. threats: diplomatic white paper

We will be on the lookout for the English version of this white paper in coming weeks.

The important question is how will a new government in South Korea and the Trump administration view this 3 way cooperation. For the practitioners who care about the importance of this cooperation the question is how can it be sustained as governments transition?

3-way cooperation with U.S., Japan key to deterring N.K. threats: diplomatic white paper | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Seung-yeon · December 31, 2024

By Kim Seung-yeon

SEOUL, Dec. 31 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's trilateral cooperation with the United States and Japan has been a key tool in strengthening the deterrence against North Korea's nuclear and missile threats, a diplomatic white paper showed Tuesday.

The three-way cooperation framework, marked by the Camp David summit in August 2023 among President Yoon Suk Yeol, U.S. President Joe Biden and then Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, has advanced their security partnership into a "comprehensive and multilayered" one, according to the 2023 white paper released by the foreign ministry.

"The year 2023 marked the swiftest and most frequent trilateral cooperation between South Korea, the United States and Japan in addressing North Korean threats," the Korean-language white paper said.

"The Camp David summit has upgraded the level of institutionalization of the trilateral cooperation," it said.

The 2023 diplomatic white paper, published by the South Korean foreign ministry (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

Since its launch in May 2022, the Yoon administration has prioritized close alignment with Washington as integral to its foreign policy, while also working to improve relations with Tokyo despite longstanding historical issues.

Yoon announced in March this year that Seoul will compensate its forced labor victims without contributions from responsible Japanese companies.

His controversial decision led to a dramatic improvement in bilateral ties with Japan, followed by the resumption of shuttle diplomacy between the two leaders.

"The improvement in Korea-Japan relations led to the first-ever trilateral summit between the three countries at Camp David, opening a new chapter in the trilateral cooperation," it said.

In the white paper, South Korea maintained its reference to Japan as "the closest neighbor and cooperation partner," stating that the decision on compensation for forced labor victims was a "resolution led by Seoul from a broader perspective to normalize relations with Tokyo."

The English version of the white paper will be available on the Ministry of Foreign Affairs' website in the coming weeks.

elly@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Seung-yeon · December 31, 2024

6. Acting President Choi appoints 2 justices to Constitutional Court

(3rd LD) Acting President Choi appoints 2 justices to Constitutional Court | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Seung-yeon · December 31, 2024

(ATTN: ADDS reactions from political circles from 7th para)

By Lee Haye-ah

SEOUL, Dec. 31 (Yonhap) -- Acting President Choi Sang-mok on Tuesday appointed two justices to the Constitutional Court, partially meeting the opposition's demand to fill three vacancies on the bench before a ruling on President Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment.

Choi said during a Cabinet meeting that he decided to appoint Jeong Gye-seon, a justice recommended by the main opposition Democratic Party (DP), and Cho Han-chang, recommended by the ruling People Power Party (PPP), but will hold off on the other opposition-recommended justice Ma Eun-hyuk until the rival parties reach an agreement.

"I decided to appoint the Constitutional Court justices because of the need to end the political uncertainty and social conflict as soon as possible and stop a possible crisis in the economy and people's livelihoods," he said.

The DP had demanded former acting President Han Duck-soo appoint the three justices without delay once motions for their appointments passed the opposition-controlled National Assembly.

After Han refused last week, the DP railroaded the motions and impeached Han, suspending him from duty and putting Choi in his place as interim leader.

By law, at least six votes are required to uphold an impeachment motion, which means the appointment of three additional justices could improve the chances of Yoon's impeachment being upheld.

The PPP voiced strong regret over Choi's appointments, accusing Choi of succumbing to the opposition's pressure and threats that it will also impeach Choi if he refuses to go ahead with the appointments.

"The decision sacrifices the constitutional principle of due process," PPP floor leader Kweon Seong-dong said. "Today's decision will set a wrong precedent."

The PPP's interim leader, Kwon Young-se, noted that any decision Choi makes as the acting leader could be called into question later, depending on the court decision on the injunction filed by the PPP seeking to suspend the impeachment of Prime Minister Han Duck-soo.

"It was inappropriate of him to change the status quo while being in that unstable position," Kwon said.

National Assembly Speaker Woo Won-shik also expressed regret.

"The appointment of Constitutional Court justices is not a matter for compromise," Woo said in a statement, dismissing as untrue the claim that the rival parties failed to reach a compromise.

The DP denounced Choi for having only filled two out of the three vacancies, urging him to name the remaining third justice "immediately."

"Even the president does not have the authority to refuse the appointment of Constitutional Court justices," DP floor leader Park Chan-dae told reporters after a party meeting.

"Acting President Choi should immediately appoint all three justices," Park said.

Acting President Choi Sang-mok presides over a Cabinet meeting at the government complex in Seoul on Dec. 31, 2024. (Pool photo) (Yonhap)

hague@yna.co.kr

elly@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Seung-yeon · December 31, 2024

7. Presidential office says Choi exceeded his authority with Constitutional Court justice appointments

Presidential office says Choi exceeded his authority with Constitutional Court justice appointments | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Seung-yeon · December 31, 2024

SEOUL, Dec. 31 (Yonhap) -- The presidential office voiced regret Tuesday after acting President Choi Sang-mok appointed two justices to the Constitutional Court, saying he has gone beyond his authority as the interim leader by going ahead with the appointments.

"It is deeply regrettable that the acting president has exceeded his scope of authority, which should have been exercised with restraint," a presidential official told Yonhap News Agency by phone.

"By making such a sensitive and political decision unilaterally, he could further intensify the political conflict," the official said.

During a Cabinet meeting, Choi appointed two out of three justices that remained vacant, partially meeting the opposition's demand to fill the nine-member bench before a ruling on President Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment.

Choi said he decided to appoint Justices Jeong Gye-seon and Cho Han-chang, who were each recommended by the main opposition Democratic Party and the ruling People Power Party, respectively. But he said he was holding off on the other opposition-recommended justice Ma Eun-hyuk until the rival parties reach an agreement.

The presidential office had reportedly advised Choi against the appointments and there reportedly were opposing views among the Cabinet members about appointing the justices during Tuesday's meeting.

Following Choi's announcement, the rival parties both denounced Choi's appointments, based on their respective positions.

Acting President Choi Sang-mok bangs a gavel at the start of a Cabinet meeting at the central government complex in Seoul on Dec. 31, 2024. (Yonhap)

elly@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Seung-yeon · December 31, 2024

8. Detention warrant issued for Yoon over martial law, 1st issuance for sitting president

Is this really necessary or is this petty politics? I was asked what happens if President Yoon's security personnel try to block his arrest? I do not know if that will happen or what the result of a confrontation might be.

The impeachment process should be a political process and should be allied to play out unhindered. If there is an impeachment conviction then any necessary legal proceedings could (should) take place. Trying to do both simultaneously creates great friction, uncertainty, and potential for instability.

(2nd LD) Detention warrant issued for Yoon over martial law, 1st issuance for sitting president | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Park Boram · December 31, 2024

(ATTN: UPDATES with more info in paras 5-9; AMENDS byline)

By Park Boram and Kim Seung-yeon

SEOUL, Dec. 31 (Yonhap) -- A Seoul court on Tuesday issued a warrant to detain impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol over his botched martial law imposition, making him the first sitting South Korean president to face arrest.

The Seoul Western District Court approved a request from the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO) to issue the warrant against Yoon on charges of masterminding the botched Dec. 3 martial law declaration, orchestrating the insurrection and abusing power, according to the CIO.

The court also approved a warrant to search Yoon's presidential residence in Seoul's Yongsan in connection with the investigation.

President Yoon Suk Yeol (Yonhap)

The CIO filed for the detention warrant after Yoon ignored all three summonses to appear for questioning over the short-lived martial law invocation.

A CIO official said the detention warrant is valid for a week, until next Monday, and that Yoon, once detained, may be held at the Seoul Detention Center in Uiwang, just south of Seoul.

The CIO has yet to decide when to execute the detention, the official said, adding that law enforcement typically does not coordinate the detention schedule with the suspect side in advance.

"Various circumstances could be considered (in the execution), but executing the warrant is the (primary) principle now that it has been issued," the official told reporters.

Once Yoon is taken into custody, the CIO is required to decide within 48 hours whether to file for an arrest warrant to detain him further for questioning or release him.

Yoon's defense team immediately issued a press release, saying it cannot accept the detention warrant and calling it "illegal and invalid" as it was issued following a request from an investigative body with no effective jurisdiction.

In issuing the warrants, the court rejected Yoon's claims that the CIO lacks jurisdiction over insurrection cases and that the warrant request was therefore illegal.

The court also dismissed Yoon's claims that he couldn't attend questioning sessions because arrangements for his personal safety and security detail, as the president, had not been made.

However, it remains unclear whether the CIO can detain Yoon, as the Presidential Security Service has blocked investigators from entering both the presidential office compound and Yoon's official residence to carry out recent court-approved searches, citing military security concerns.

Shortly after the court issued the warrant to detain Yoon, the Presidential Security Service said it would take measures to handle the warrant in accordance with legal process.

Although Yoon has presidential immunity from criminal prosecution, by law, the privilege does not extend to insurrection or treason charges.

Police buses line the road near impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol's residence in Yongsan in central Seoul on Dec. 29, 2024. (Yonhap)

Yoon's defense team has argued the CIO lacks legal authority to investigate insurrection, a charge for which, in principle, police have investigative jurisdiction under the current system, amended during the previous government.

Oh Dong-woon, the CIO chief, has said that, unlike search warrants, a court-issued detention or arrest warrant cannot legally be obstructed, even by the president.

Yoon has been suspended from his duties after the opposition-controlled National Assembly voted to impeach him on Dec. 14 over his imposition of martial law, which lasted six hours before it was overturned by a parliamentary vote.

The Constitutional Court has begun proceedings for deliberations to determine whether to remove Yoon from office or reinstate him. It has 180 days from Dec. 14 to deliver its ruling.

elly@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Park Boram · December 31, 2024

9. Yoon's defense team files injunction against detention warrant for impeached president

I wish they could separate the political and legal processes. But it may not be possible in Korean culture.

(2nd LD) Yoon's defense team files injunction against detention warrant for impeached president | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Seung-yeon · December 31, 2024

(ATTN: RECASTS headline, lead; UPDATES story as injunction has been filed)

By Yi Wonju and Chae Yun-hwan

SEOUL, Dec. 31 (Yonhap) -- President Yoon Suk Yeol's legal defense team filed an injunction Tuesday to suspend a detention warrant issued against the impeached president over his failed martial law bid, calling the warrant "illegal."

Earlier in the day, the Seoul Western District Court approved a request from the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO) to issue the warrant for Yoon on charges of masterminding the botched Dec. 3 martial law declaration, orchestrating the insurrection and abusing power, according to the CIO.

The court also approved a warrant to search Yoon's presidential residence in Seoul's Yongsan in connection with the investigation.

Yun Gap-geun, one of Yoon's legal representatives, said the arrest and search warrants issued upon request by the CIO are "illegal and invalid" because the CIO has "no investigative rights" on charges of insurrection.

Yun Gap-geun, a lawyer for President Yoon Suk Yeol, speaks to reporters at the Seoul High Prosecutors Office in southern Seoul on Dec. 31, 2024. (Yonhap)

"It is shocking and difficult to accept that a warrant requested by an agency that has no investigative rights was issued," Yun told reporters. "It is clear that the current detention warrant is illegal. (We) regret the court decision."

Yun said the defense team filed for an injunction with the Constitutional Court to suspend the warrant's effect, as well as request the top court review the constitutionality of the warrant.

"(The warrant) contradicts the constitutional principle that a president's actions as head of state are not subject to judicial review," Seok Dong-hyeon, another of Yoon's defense lawyers, said earlier.

The CIO filed for the detention warrant after Yoon ignored all three summonses to appear for questioning over the short-lived martial law invocation.

Yun defended Yoon's rejection of the summonses, saying investigators did not consult with them to coordinate an appearance by the president.

"(He) is not receiving preferential treatment because he is a person of power, rather he is suffering disadvantages," the lawyer said.

Yun also said there was no reason for Yoon to avoid an investigation, saying he plans to face any investigative authorities "confidently" and "by law" if they follow legal procedures.

Yoon will make his stance over his declaration of martial law at an "appropriate" time, the lawyer said, adding he will likely appear at his impeachment trial at the Constitutional Court at least once.

President Yoon Suk Yeol (Yonhap)

julesyi@yna.co.kr

yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr

elly@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Seung-yeon · December 31, 2024

10. Analysis: Biden spent four years building up US alliances in Asia. Will they survive Trump’s next term?

This should be Biden's gift to Trump and Trump would be wise to accept it and use it for the benefit of the US. If there is anything that Trump should sustain from the Biden administration it should be the strengths of the relationships with US friends, partners, and allies.

The irony is that all US friends, partners, and allies are ready to cooperate with the Trump administration. There will be less resistance to Trump demands than there was in his first administration and certainly less resistance than will be put up by the Democrats in Congress. The conditions and knowledge and understanding are vastly different than during the first Trump administration. Allies know they must cooperate and they are willing to do so especially due to the rising threats from the revisionist and rogue powers of China, Russia, Iran, and north Korea.

But the question is will Trump officials realize that they no longer need to vilify alliances for political purposes and to charge up the MAGA base. They are now about to be in power and they can employ alliance relationships for the benefit of American First. Will they have the strategic maturity to build on the existing alliance relationships or is everything only going partisan politics and nothing else?

Analysis: Biden spent four years building up US alliances in Asia. Will they survive Trump’s next term? | CNN

CNN · by Simone McCarthy · December 30, 2024

Hong Kong CNN —

For America’s friends in Asia, the uncertainty brought by the impending return of Donald Trump to the White House is coming at a bad time.

China has been modernizing its military and nuclear arsenal while becoming increasingly aggressive in asserting territorial claims in the South China Sea and over Taiwan. North Korea has ramped up its belligerent rhetoric and calls to develop its illegal nuclear program. Both countries have expanded their alignment with Russia as it wages war on Ukraine, linking Asia to the shattered peace in Europe.

For decades, the US has backed the security of its allies in the region, which has more overseas active-duty American troops than anywhere else in the world. Tens of thousands of soldiers are stationed on sprawling bases in treaty allies South Korea and Japan, countries that, like the Philippines and Australia, the US is bound to aid if they come under attack.

Marines of South Korea, right, and the US, aim their weapons near amphibious assault vehicles during a US and South Korea joint landing military exercise in Pohang, South Korea, on March 30, 2015.

Lee Jin-man/AP

Those countries are now preparing for the return of an American leader who has railed against what he sees as free-riding US allies who don’t pay enough for defense, sidled up to autocrats, and called for an “America first” approach to global obligations.

Many questions about Trump are on the minds of US-aligned leaders in Asia, observers across the region say.

Will Trump ask for more defense spending than allies can afford? Could he take an extreme step to withdraw US forces if any such demands aren’t met? Will the businessman-turned-leader cut deals with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, North Korea’s Kim Jong Un or Russia’s Vladimir Putin that undermine the interests of US allies?

Alternatively, could he perhaps strengthen US alliances and be a tougher opponent for America’s enemies?

In the shadow of this uncertainty, leaders across the region have been scrambling to forge strong ties with the notoriously mercurial incoming US commander-in-chief, who’s known to link foreign policy to personal rapport.

Many are warily eyeing President-elect Trump’s threat to ringfence the world’s largest economy with 10% tariffs on all imports and upwards of 60% tariffs on goods from China, moves that could have significant economic knock-on effects across Asia.

But as Trump’s January inauguration draws closer, governments across Asia are also facing potentially more existential questions about how Trump will manage US security relationships with friends and rivals – and stand by its allies if tested.

‘Indispensable power?’

After World War II, a network of US alliances was established across the world to serve as a powerful deterrent against another global war. A major aim was to prevent more countries from becoming nuclear powers by placing them under the umbrella of the US arsenal.

In the eyes of many in Washington and across Asia, those alliances in Asia-Pacific have only become more critical as relationships in the region become more contentious.

China has expanded its security ties with NATO-adversary Russia and been accused of enabling Moscow’s war by buying up Russian exports and providing the dual-use goods needed for its defense base. Beijing has also ramped up its intimidation of Taiwan, the self-ruling democracy it claims and has vowed to take control of, by force if necessary.

In the South China Sea, the China Coast Guard has in recent months attacked Philippine ships with water cannons and even axes, despite a major international ruling years ago denying its claim to the bulk of the strategically critical waterway.

China Coast Guard vessels fire water cannons toward a Philippine resupply vessel at Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea on March 5.

Ezra Acayan/Getty Images

North Korea, meanwhile, has ramped up its threats toward South Korea and the US as it carries out illegal weapons testing. It’s also aiding Russia’s war with ammunition, missiles, and – in a major, recent escalation – soldiers, US officials say.

But as Trump steps onto a more fraught and complex global stage than at the start of his first term eight years ago, observers in Asia say his focus appears to be on ratcheting up economic pressure on China rather than regional security.

Footage circulated online on Oct 18, 2024 shows North Korean troops training in Russia. Open source intelligence (OSINT) researchers have located that this was filmed at a training range in Sergeyevka, Primorsky Krai, Russia. In the video, a Russian soldier in uniform ñ with an insignia on his shoulder ñ commented on the troops marching before him and called them foreign reinforcements, claiming that millions of them would come to reinforce the troops, according to Kyiv Post. The matching insignia on the soldierís shoulder and the gate indicate that the video was likely taken at a Russian military facility. North Korea has started sending troops to fight with Russia in Ukraine, South Korea\'s spy agency has said as Seoul warned of a grave security threat. The allegation comes a day after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he believed 10,000 North Korean soldiers could join the war, based on intelligence information. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol called for a security meeting on Friday. According to South Korea spy agency, 1,500 troops have already arrived in Russia - with anonymous sources telling South Korean media the final figure could be closer to 12,000.

EyePress News/Reuters

Trump’s “priority is overwhelmingly on the economic relationship and on the United States not losing to China economically,” but there’s little sign “that he is deeply interested in the military or strategic balance in East Asia,” said Sam Roggeveen, director of the Lowy Institute’s International Security Program in Sydney.

“Everything points in the opposite direction,” Roggeveen said. “He’s interested in – sure – having a strong military and defending the United States … but not in this idea of America as an indispensable power which has a unique global security role.”

The incoming leader and his strategists have instead repeatedly questioned whether the US was getting enough out of its alliances and whether American lives should be lost and dollars spent fighting foreign wars.

Trump shocked European leaders earlier this year by saying he would encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” to any NATO member country that doesn’t meet the US-led alliance’s defense spending guidelines.

Preparing for Trump 2.0

Weeks before election day, Trump turned that spotlight toward Asia, claiming during an interview with Bloomberg News that were he president, South Korea would pay $10 billion a year to host US troops — about eight times more than Seoul and Washington recently agreed on.

South Korea already spends well over 2% of its gross domestic product on defense, considered by the US to be a benchmark for its allies. Over the past decade, the country has also paid 90% of the cost for expanding Camp Humphreys, the US’ largest overseas base.

Camp Humphreys in Pyeongtaek, South Korea, is photographed in 2019. It is the US' largest overseas military base.

Jung Yeon-je/AFP/Getty Images

US soldiers participate in a 'Best Squad Competition' at Camp Humphreys in 2023 in Pyeongtaek, South Korea.

Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images

But Trump’s comments have sparked fears in Seoul that he could seek to renegotiate cost-sharing for US troops, despite a five-year agreement reached earlier this year that will raise Seoul’s spending to 8.3% more in 2026 than the previous year. A failed renegotiation – in a worst case posed by some observers – could result in a Trump decision to downsize or withdraw US forces meant to counter the threat from its belligerent northern neighbor.

Such a scenario, or broader feelings that US commitment is waning, could also push Seoul toward developing its own nuclear arsenal – a potential first step on a slippery slope that could lead more middle powers to proliferate such weapons, experts say.

But dealings with Trump have become a lot more complicated for South Korea. Lawmakers there voted to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol earlier this month after his shock declaration of martial law, and then weeks later voted to impeach acting president Han Duck-soo. The country now faces months of political uncertainty at a time when observers have said building a strong leader-to-leader relationship is key.

US Army Sgt. Terry Cook and his wife, Tyrese, pose with their five children at Camp Humphreys, July 4, 2024.

Yoonjung Seo/CNN

“The biggest challenge is whether Seoul and Washington will be able to communicate properly,” said Duyeon Kim, a Seoul-based adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security.

Such communication is key to “avert devastating consequences and surprises in the US-South Korea alliance that we currently assume would happen based on Trump’s harsh rhetoric against allies,” she added.

In Japan, pundits have lamented the perceived deficiencies of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba compared with the late Shinzo Abe, known as Asia’s “Trump whisperer” for his finesse in getting close to the president-elect during his first term.

The key American ally in Asia is likely to stress its own sweeping changes to its defense posture since Trump was last in power.

Tokyo has veered away from the pacifist constitution imposed by the US in the aftermath of World War II, in 2022 moving to boost defense spending to about 2% of its GDP by 2027 and buy up American cruise missiles.

Countries throughout the region are also watching whether the Trump administration picks up the mantle of a key piece of Biden’s legacy: efforts to build across Asia what State Department officials have called a “lattice work” of interwoven US partnerships, part of the administration’s “invest, align, compete” strategy to counter Beijing.

From left, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, US President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida stand for a Quadrilateral Summit family photo in Wilmington, Delaware, on September 21.

Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images

Biden bolstered the Quad (India, Japan, Australia and the US) security group and founded the AUKUS (Australia, United Kingdom and the US) partnership that aims to equip Canberra with nuclear-powered submarines. He also brokered significant increases in Japan’s security coordination with South Korea, the Philippines and Australia.

Trump – as an unpredictable force in the White House – could drop, maintain or even deepen these relationships. But in the meantime, America’s Asian allies will look to hedge against any decline in US support.

“The United States is now not the constant of international affairs, but rather the variable,” said Murata Koji, a professor of political science at Japan’s Doshisha University.

“That’s why we have to expand our security (outside) the United States,” he said, pointing also to Tokyo’s need to deepen its partnership with Europe over shared concerns.

China watching closely

That said, experts across the region broadly feel it’s unlikely there will be seismic changes in the US security presence under Trump, in terms of drawing down troops or tearing up alliance agreements, especially given American focus on the challenge posed by China.

“Geopolitical realities and circumstances will oblige him to try to maintain forces in the region. The scenario that I’m thinking of is more of renegotiating, more than outright withdrawal,” said Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

US President-elect Donald Trump gestures to China's President Xi Jinping in Beijing, China, on November 9, 2017.

Damir Sagolj/Reuters

And countries will not just be considering potential downsides to Trump’s return, Koh added, pointing to perceptions in Asia that Biden has hesitated in some of his decisions on Ukraine, complicating the situation for the besieged country.

“With Trump coming in, there could be some renewed hope that (he) will not be like Biden in terms of crisis – maybe Trump will be more decisive,” he said.

There are concerns, however, that an expected aggressive economic policy toward China could lead to a further breakdown in communication between the US and Chinese militaries, raising the risk of confrontation between the two. And if US allies are hurt by new American tariffs, they may have no choice but to rely more on the world’s second-largest economy.

On the other hand, Trump also signaled some interest in working with China, implying in recent comments to CNBC that he saw at least certain aspects of his post-pandemic policy on China as “a step too far.”

Then there is the question of how Trump deals with Taiwan – a potential flashpoint long seen as among the most likely triggers for a US-China conflict.

An ‘insurance company’

Biden repeatedly broke with purposeful American ambiguity to say that the US would defend Taiwan if China invaded the island. He also approved funding for the first-ever military aid to the island as Beijing ramped up its military pressure.

In contrast, the president-elect earlier this year appeared to undercut US relations with Taipei, claiming in a Bloomberg interview that Washington was “no different than an insurance company” for the island and said Taiwan should pay the US for defense. In October, he told the Wall Street Journal he would impose 150% to 200% tariffs if China went “into Taiwan.”

A Chinese fighter jet is refueled during military exercises around Taiwan on April 9, 2023.

Xinhua/AP

But how the Trump administration would react in the event of a contingency remains unknown. Trump’s choice for secretary of state, Sen. Marco Rubio, is a staunch advocate for the island, and his vice presidential pick JD Vance has argued that the US supplying Ukraine with air defense systems could hurt its ability to aid Taiwan’s defense if China were to attack.

That argument, however, has observers in Asia concerned.

Many in the region believe how Trump handles the war in Ukraine will send a critical message to Russia’s partners like China, Iran and North Korea – a set of nations some in Washington fear could harden into a dangerous axis. Those concerns may be particularly acute when it comes to China, which has likely been watching closely as it looks to its own intentions in Taiwan.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping attend a welcoming ceremony in Beijing's Tiananmen Square during Putin's state visit this past May.

Sergei Bobylov/Pool/Sputnik/AFP/Getty Images

Trump has suggested he would end the Ukraine war “in 24 hours” and called for an “immediate ceasefire and negotiations” – a position that jives with Beijing’s stated stance on the war, which the US and its allies have criticized as being beneficial to Russia.

“I know Vladimir well. This is his time to act. China can help. The World is waiting!” Trump said in a post on his social media platform Truth Social earlier this month.

And what that rhetoric means in practice could have significant ramifications for Asia.

“If Russia is allowed to walk away with looking like it’s got a win from this … that then cements this relationship (between Russia and China),” said Robert Ward, director of geo-economics and strategy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in the UK.

“And Xi Jinping will be watching this very closely, watching – how credible is Western deterrence? How credible is NATO? How willing is the West to actually put skin in the game in a conflict – and that of course relates back to Taiwan.”

CNN’s Yoonjung Seo, Mike Valerio, and Hanako Montgomery contributed to this report.

CNN · by Simone McCarthy · December 30, 2024

11. Trump's secretary of state nominee voices 'deepest condolences' over deadly plane crash in S. Korea

I am optimistic that Senator Rubio will be the Trump administration's strongest proponent for the ROK/US alliance (and for north Korean human rights).

Trump's secretary of state nominee voices 'deepest condolences' over deadly plane crash in S. Korea | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr

Trump's secretary of state nominee voices 'deepest condolences' over deadly plane crash in S. Korea

Park Boram

Diplomacy 14:46 December 31, 2024

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SEOUL, Dec. 31 (Yonhap) -- U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's secretary of state nominee has expressed "deep condolences" over a recent deadly plane crash in South Korea, which claimed the lives of 179 people.

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, nominated to serve as secretary of state for Trump's second term, wrote on the social media platform X on Monday (U.S. time), "Our hearts go out to the Korean people. We share in your grief over the tragic loss of 179 people."

On Sunday, a Jeju Air plane from Bangkok crashed into the outer wall of Muan International Airport in southwest South Korea during a belly landing, leaving 179 of the 181 people on board dead.

"We extend our deepest condolences to the families and loved ones amid this immeasurable pain," Rubio said, adding, "Our prayers are with you and your great nation."

The message is the first expression of condolences from Trump's team over the plane crash.

On the day of the tragedy, U.S. President Joe Biden said that he and first lady Jill Biden are "deeply saddened" by the loss of life and pledged to provide any necessary assistance.

This file photo, published by the Associated Press, shows Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, nominated to serve as secretary of state under Donald Trump's second presidential term. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

pbr@yna.co.kr

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12. Can the CIO arrest President Yoon over insurrection charges?

Again, I wish they could separate the political impeachment process from legal proceedings.

Can the CIO arrest President Yoon over insurrection charges?

Legal experts question enforcement: "If Yoon refuses, an arrest might not even take place."

https://www.chosun.com/english/national-en/2024/12/31/YB4TTC6YNJDQ5HKVPAEAZQIICA/

By Yoo Hee-gon,

Lee Min-jun,

Lee Jae-eun

Published 2024.12.31. 15:58

Updated 2024.12.31. 17:44

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol was impeached and suspended from power over his botched martial law declaration on Dec. 3. / Presidential Office of South Korea

A South Korean court has approved an arrest warrant for President Yoon Suk-yeol, who was impeached over his short-lived martial law declaration on Dec. 3. Yoon’s legal representatives immediately protested the arrest warrant issued by the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO) on Dec. 31, calling it “illegal and invalid.”

“The arrest warrant has been issued by an agency without investigative authority,” said Yoon Kab-keun, one of President Yoon’s lawyers. He argued that the arrest warrant does not meet the Criminal Procedure Act requirements as the CIO lacks the authority to investigate insurrection charges.

The CIO claims that it can investigate insurrection as a crime linked to abuse of power, which falls under its direct investigative authority. Yoon’s legal representatives refuted this, asserting that a sitting president cannot be prosecuted for abuse of power and tying insurrection to abuse of power is a legal overreach.

The dispute reflects the ongoing power struggle between prosecutors, police, and the CIO over investigative authority. The Supreme Court’s National Court Administration noted, “Ultimately, the matter must be decided by the court, depending on the specifics of the warrant request.”

By law, the CIO does not have investigative jurisdiction over insurrection. Only the police have the authority to investigate rebellion or insurrection directly. However, the CIO argues it can investigate insurrection as a crime related to abuse of power, a precedent previously cited by prosecutors before transferring the case to the CIO.

Despite this argument, legal experts warn that courts may adopt a narrow interpretation of a sitting president’s liability. “Unlike figures such as former Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun, President Yoon is immune from prosecution for most crimes except in cases involving insurrection and treason,” said a lawyer based in Seocho-dong. “The court might interpret the scope of ‘related crimes’ more narrowly in Yoon’s case.”

“Attempting to connect insurrection, a serious offense punishable by the death penalty, with abuse of power, which carries a maximum five-year sentence, stretches legal reasoning,” said Yoon’s lawyer.

Previously, the CIO issued an arrest warrant for former intelligence commander Moon Sang-ho, who was also charged with insurrection and abuse of power. Prosecutors similarly indicted former Defense Minister Kim on insurrection charges as a related crime of abuse of power. A CIO official remarked, “The court has already acknowledged the CIO’s authority to investigate cases involving insurrection.”

If the court issues an arrest warrant for Yoon, the CIO can execute it immediately. However, many legal experts predict the CIO might attempt further summons instead, as the issuance of a warrant exerts significant psychological pressure.

CIO Chief Oh Dong-woon previously warned that if the Presidential Security Service stands in the way of the warrant’s execution, the CIO will issue an official letter stating that this could constitute obstruction of public duty and abuse of power. But experts agree the CIO will likely refrain from physical confrontation even if the Presidential Security Service stands in the way.

In 2004, prosecutors issued an arrest warrant against former Democratic Party leader Han Hwa-gap but abandoned efforts to arrest after 200 supporters blocked the party headquarters.

“If President Yoon continues to defy the arrest warrant, the CIO may simply transfer the case to prosecutors without further investigation,” said a lawyer familiar with the matter.

Under law, the CIO can investigate and prosecute corruption offenses involving high-ranking officials, including judges, prosecutors, and senior police officers at the rank of commissioner or higher. However, for other high-ranking officials, including the president, the CIO only has investigative power, not the authority to prosecute.

Even if the CIO investigates, arrests, or detains President Yoon, only prosecutors can bring him to trial. The CIO Act also lacks provisions for a maximum detention period, defaulting to the prosecution’s standard 20-day limit. Ultimately, the CIO will likely transfer the case to the prosecution after completing the investigation with a recommendation for indictment.

13. [KOREA TIMES POLL] Majority of Koreans back changes to limit presidential powers

Important polling insights but polling in Korea is notoriously challenging.

Please go to the link to view the graphics and charts.

https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2025/01/356_389472.html

[KOREA TIMES POLL] Majority of Koreans back changes to limit presidential powers

The Korea Times · by 2024-12-31 17:12 | Politics · December 31, 2024

By Anna J. Park

More than half of Koreans believe a constitutional amendment is necessary to reform the country's presidential system, citing shortcomings in the current political structure and the need to establish stronger checks and balances to curb excessive presidential powers, according to an opinion poll conducted by The Korea Times.

According to the poll conducted by Hankook Research at the request of The Korea Times, 56 percent of 1,000 respondents expressed support for amending the Constitution to reform the current single, five-year presidential term. Meanwhile, 39 percent of those surveyed opposed the idea, and the remaining 5 percent did not provide a response. The survey was carried out over two days, from Thursday to Friday.

The poll was conducted approximately three weeks after President Yoon Suk Yeol briefly imposed martial law, an action he defended as part of his executive authority to govern.

However, the poll indicates that most citizens disapprove of the current system, which grants such excessive power to the president, and instead support measures to limit executive authority.

These opinions were consistent across various groups, including gender, region, and political ideology. For example, 61 percent of respondents identifying as politically liberal supported the change. Similarly, 57 percent of those with centrist views and 51 percent of conservatives also agreed that such an amendment is necessary.

Regarding the reasons for change, 45 percent cited the need to address the shortcomings of the single, five-year term system, while 35 percent emphasized the importance of dispersing or limiting presidential powers to ensure better checks and balances. Another 17 percent pointed to the need to improve the current electoral system, which allows a candidate to win the presidency without securing a majority of the vote.

One of the presidential powers people believe should be limited is the veto on bills passed by the National Assembly. According to the poll, 64 percent of respondents believe there should be a limit on the number of times the president can exercise veto power. This concern stems from Yoon's exercise of veto power on more than 25 opposition-led bills, including three related to special investigations into corruption allegations involving his wife, Kim Keon Hee.

A view of the presidential office in Seoul / Yonhap

Drawbacks of single, 5-year presidential term

It has long been noted that while the single, five-year presidential term was originally designed to prevent prolonged rule by authoritarian governments, it has significant drawbacks. These include intense factional conflicts every five years, difficulties in addressing issues that require long-term policy reviews, and challenges to continuity in governance. The prevalence of lame-duck periods toward the end of a president's tenure is also one of the system's shortcomings.

Professor Chang Young-soo at Korea University School of Law explained that Korea is currently facing "a prolonged delay in constitutional amendment" and emphasized the need for such a change.

"Since the country's Constitution was enacted in 1948, it underwent nine amendments over a 39-year period, up until 1987. However, in the 38 years since then, there have been no constitutional revisions at all. This prolonged delay highlights a significant issue of stagnation and shows the urgent need to address numerous pressing matters requiring revision," Chang told The Korea Times.

The professor emphasized that the issue of the so-called "imperial presidency" — a defining feature of Korea's single, five-year term — must be addressed. With power systematically concentrated in the presidency, the country has frequently witnessed politicized appointments to the judiciary, as presidents attempt to control the judicial branch, thereby undermining the principle of separation of powers.

The declaration of martial law on Dec. 3, 2024 by Yoon further exposed the ineffectiveness of internal controls within the executive branch, underscoring the urgent need for reforms, he said.

Kang Won-taek, a professor of political science at Seoul National University, also expressed the view that the current presidential system has institutional problems and highlighted the need to consider ways to limit presidential powers.

"When conflict arises between the president and the National Assembly, the presidential system lacks the institutional mechanisms to resolve such disputes. When these conflicts escalate, the legislature may seek impeachment against the president, while the president could consider relying on military power. This is what happened in South America, and it has now become our reality," the professor said.

Kang said that the overall weaknesses of Korea's political system have started to emerge in recent years, and it seems that this has now reached its peak.

"This creates a need to reduce presidential powers," he said, suggesting that it could mark a turning point for change.

President Yoon Suk Yeol and then-Prime Minister Han Duck-soo enter the Cabinet meeting room at the presidential office in Seoul in this March 21, 2023 photo. Korea Times file

Dual-executive system

Regarding which political arrangement would most effectively check the president's excessive powers, legal and political experts interviewed by The Korea Times suggested that a decentralized presidential system — also known as a dual-executive republic — would be the most suitable.

"Rather than the extreme polarization seen in a winner-takes-all system of the current presidential term, a decentralized system could encourage healthy competition, where the ruling and opposition parties vie to demonstrate who governs better, rather than engaging in obstructive tactics," Chang pointed out.

"For such a system to function effectively, the prime minister should be elected by the National Assembly, not appointed by the president. In this divided government, when the ruling party does not hold a majority in the Assembly, a prime minister elected by the opposition would introduce a competitive dynamic, which could improve the system."

Kang also agreed that a decentralized presidential system would be more effective in resolving political conflicts.

"In a presidential system, the power dynamics are vertical, and because the people have granted the president governing authority, it fundamentally cannot be shared. The president must make decisions and judgments alone," Kang said. "In contrast, in a parliamentary-style system or a decentralized presidential system similar to a parliamentary system, multiple groups can work together, enabling power-sharing. In such a system, power is not solely delegated to one president, so governance can be shared."

He also suggested that a four-year, dual-term, and decentralized presidential system could be a feasible option that might garner public consensus.

"While institutional reforms may not fully resolve the chronic issues of extreme polarization and political retribution in Korean politics, they could serve as an effective first step toward alleviating them," he said.

The Korea Times commissioned the survey to gauge public sentiment. Hankook Research conducted phone interviews with 1,000 adults on Thursday and Friday. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, with a credibility rate of 95 percent. Further details are available on the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission’s website.

The Korea Times · by 2024-12-31 17:12 | Politics · December 31, 2024

14. Kim Jong-un sends letter to Putin vowing to strengthen military cooperation with Russia

Kim Jong-un sends letter to Putin vowing to strengthen military cooperation with Russia

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2024-12-31/national/northKorea/Kim-Jongun-sends-letter-to-Putin-vowing-to-strengthen-military-cooperation-with-Russia/2212453

Published: 31 Dec. 2024, 09:35

Updated: 31 Dec. 2024, 12:39

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, right, and Russian President Vladimir Putin walk side by side in a garden in Pyongyang following the signing of a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty on June 19. [KOREAN CENTRAL NEWS AGENCY]

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has sent a New Year's letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin, vowing to further solidify bilateral military cooperation, the North's state media reported Tuesday.

"2025 will be recorded as the first year of war victory in the 21st century for the Russian military and its people in defeating neo-Nazism and achieving victory," Kim said in the letter sent to Putin the previous day, according to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

Putin sends New Year's message to Kim Jong-un, hopes for continued cooperation in 2025

Putin sends his lion’s share: More than 70 animals gifted to North Korea

Putin meets with North's top diplomat at Kremlin: TASS

The KCNA said the letter, under the names of Kim, the Korean people and the country's entire armed forces, conveyed enthusiastic blessings to Russia's people and military.

Kim expressed a willingness to "further solidify" his country's "comprehensive strategic partnership" with Russia by devising new projects and implementing them strongly to build strong nations and achieve peace and prosperity for their peoples, the KCNA reported.

Kim "wished for Putin's greater achievements" in state leadership, as well as the prosperity, welfare and happiness of the Russian people, the report said.

The letter came amid deepening military, economic and other ties between Pyongyang and Moscow, following the signing of a mutual defense treaty by Kim and Putin during the Russian president's visit to the North Korean capital in June.

North Korea has deployed more than 10,000 troops to support Russia in its war against Ukraine, with South Korean officials warning that the North is preparing to send more troops and supply more military equipment to Moscow.

15. Moscow’s War Plans Against Japan, South Korea Leaked

From Kyiv.

I have not yet seen any reporting in the Korean or Japanese English language press.

I will forward the Financial Times article upon which this article is based.

Moscow’s War Plans Against Japan, South Korea Leaked

kyivpost.com · by Kyiv Post · December 31, 2024

More than 160 targets in Japan and South Korea were listed in a cache of 29 secret Russian military files that outlined Moscow’s eastern flank strategy in the event of a major war.

by Kyiv Post | December 31, 2024, 1:03 pm

This handout photo taken on July 13, 2023 and provided by the South Korean Defence Ministry shows a US Air Force B-52H strategic bomber (middle R) flying with South Korean Air Force F-15K (L) and US Air Force F-16 fighter jets during a joint air drill in South Korea. (Photo by Handout / South Korean Defence Ministry / AFP)

Russia prepared target lists containing more than 160 sites in Japan and South Korea in the event of a major war, according to leaked documents.

The Financial Times (FT), which reportedly obtained the cache of 29 secret Russian military files from “Western sources,” said the war plans contained within came from 2013-2014 and bore the insignia of Russia’s Combined Arms Academy, a training college for senior officers.

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This handout photo taken on October 5, 2022 and released by South Korea's Defence Ministry in Seoul shows the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) firing a missile from an undisclosed location on South Korea's east coast during a South Korea-US joint live-fire exercise aimed to counter North Korea?s missile test. The South Korean and US militaries fired a volley of missiles into the sea in response to North Korea firing a ballistic missile over Japan, Seoul said. (Photo by Handout / South Korean Defence Ministry / AFP)

FT said “much of the presentation” centered around strikes using Russia’s Kh-101 non-nuclear cruise missile, intending to halt the “regrouping of troops in areas of operational purpose” in the Asia-Pacific sector should a war with NATO breakout.

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The publication said the leaked materials “largely focused on training officers for potential conflict on the country’s eastern frontier from 2008-14” but asserted their relevancy considering Moscow’s ties with Beijing and Pyongyang’s troop deployments in Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Who is on Russia’s Asia hit list?

Of the sites listed, 82 were military targets such as the central and regional command headquarters of the Japanese and South Korean armed forces, radar installations, air bases and naval installations, FT said.

However, the remaining targets are of a civilian nature, including roads, tunnels and power plants – even nuclear ones.

“The remainder are civilian infrastructure sites including road and rail tunnels in Japan such as the Kanmon tunnel linking Honshu and Kyushu islands. Energy infrastructure is also a priority: the list includes 13 power plants, such as nuclear complexes in Tokai, as well as fuel refineries.

“In South Korea, the top civilian targets are bridges, but the list also includes industrial sites such as the Pohang steelworks and chemical factories in Busan,” FT reported.

FT said one of the slides also contained Russian estimations of the forces needed to breach two South Korean command-and-control bunkers. Another slide reportedly contains “precise measurements of target buildings and facilities” of a Japanese radar base in Okushiritou.

Then vs. now

Though FT asserted the war plans’ relevancy despite their age, it added that the war in Ukraine had shown Moscow’s overconfidence in its weaponry 10 years ago.

The hypothetical mission against Okushiritou has an 85% chance of successfully destroying the targets, according to the documents, which FT said was overstated considering the actual performance of the Kh-101 missiles seen in Ukraine.

Fabian Hoffmann, a doctoral research fellow at the University of Oslo, told FT that Moscow overestimated the Kh-101’s accuracy and stealth capabilities.

“The Kh-101 features an external engine, which is a common characteristic of Soviet and Russian cruise missiles. However, this design choice significantly increases the missile’s radar signature,” Hoffmann said.

“For missile systems with limited yield that rely on pinpoint accuracy to destroy their targets, this is an obvious problem,” he added.

What’s the implication?

Experts told FT that the documents highlight the shared security between Europe and Asia, all the while demonstrating Moscow’s concerns over the security of its eastern flank.

William Alberque, a former NATO arms control official now at the Stimson Center, told FT that “European and Asian theatres of war are directly and inextricably linked,” as shown by the documents and the recent 12,000 troops Pyongyang sent to aid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“Asia cannot sit out conflict in Europe, nor can Europe sit idly by if war breaks out in Asia,” Alberque said.“In a situation where Russia was going to attack Estonia out of the blue, they would have to strike US forces and enablers in Japan and Korea as well,” he added.

Michito Tsuruoka, an associate professor at Keio University and a former researcher at Japan’s Ministry of Defense, told FT that war plans highlighted concerns for Tokyo as a war with Russia could come with little warning.

“In a conflict with North Korea or China, Japan would get early warnings. We might have time to prepare and try to take action. But when it comes to a horizontal escalation from Europe, it will be a shorter warning time for Tokyo and Japan would have fewer options on its own to prevent conflict,” Tsuruoka told FT.

Tsuruoka added that Russia “is not often seen as a security threat by ordinary Japanese,” which can be another cause for concern.

kyivpost.com · by Kyiv Post · December 31, 2024

16. Russia trained officers for attacks on Japan and South Korea

A deliberate leak to achieve effects? Create dilemmas for the US and its alliances?

Or are we now leaking these to try to show linkage between the European and Asian theaters?

All warfare is based on deception.

But these are reports from allegedly 2013-2014.

Were these just training scenarios? Have the Russians not learned to use fictional names for potential enemies (e.g., we always fight the Krasnovians on the plains of Kansas at CGSC).

Graphics at the link: https://www.ft.com/content/d345a6e7-2d72-4dcb-9c12-76d571ba75eb

Russia trained officers for attacks on Japan and South Korea

Leaked military files show detailed plans for strikes on civilian infrastructure in event of war

Financial Times · by Chris Cook · December 31, 2024

Russia’s military prepared detailed target lists for a potential war with Japan and South Korea that included nuclear power stations and other civilian infrastructure, according to secret files from 2013-2014 seen by the Financial Times.

The strike plans, summarised in a leaked set of Russian military documents, cover 160 sites such as roads, bridges and factories, selected as targets to stop the “regrouping of troops in areas of operational purpose”.

Moscow’s acute concern about its eastern flank is highlighted in the documents, which were shown to the FT by western sources. Russian military planners fear the country’s eastern borders would be exposed in any war with Nato and vulnerable to attack from US assets and regional allies.

The documents are drawn from a cache of 29 secret Russian military files, largely focused on training officers for potential conflict on the country’s eastern frontier from 2008-14 and still seen as relevant to Russian strategy.

The FT has this year reported on how the documents contain previously unknown details on operating principles for the use of nuclear weapons and outline scenarios for war-gaming a Chinese invasion and for strikes deep inside Europe.

Asia has become central to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategy for pursuing the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and his broader stance against Nato.

In addition to its increased economic reliance on China, Moscow has recruited 12,000 troops from North Korea to fight in Ukraine while bolstering Pyongyang economically and militarily in return. After firing an experimental ballistic missile at Ukraine in November, Putin said “the regional conflict in Ukraine has taken on elements of a global nature”.

William Alberque, a former Nato arms control official now at the Stimson Center, said that, together, the leaked documents and recent North Korean deployment proved “once and for all that the European and Asian theatres of war are directly and inextricably linked”. “Asia cannot sit out conflict in Europe, nor can Europe sit idly by if war breaks out in Asia,” he said.

The target list for Japan and South Korea was contained in a presentation intended to explain the capabilities of the Kh-101 non-nuclear cruise missile. Experts who reviewed it for the FT said the contents suggested it was circulated in 2013 or 2014. The document is marked with the insignia of the Combined Arms Academy, a training college for senior officers.

The US has significant forces gathered in South Korea and Japan. Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, both countries have joined the Washington-led export control coalition to put pressure on the Kremlin’s war machine.

Alberque said the documents showed how Russia perceived the threat from the west’s allies in Asia, who the Kremlin fears would pin down or enable a US-led attack on its military forces in the region, including missile brigades. “In a situation where Russia was going to attack Estonia out of the blue, they would have to strike US forces and enablers in Japan and Korea as well,” he said.

Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesman, did not respond to a request for comment.

The first 82 sites on Russia’s target list are military in nature, such as the central and regional command headquarters of the Japanese and South Korean armed forces, radar installations, air bases and naval installations.

The remainder are civilian infrastructure sites including road and rail tunnels in Japan such as the Kanmon tunnel linking Honshu and Kyushu islands. Energy infrastructure is also a priority: the list includes 13 power plants, such as nuclear complexes in Tokai, as well as fuel refineries.

In South Korea, the top civilian targets are bridges, but the list also includes industrial sites such as the Pohang steelworks and chemical factories in Busan.

Much of the presentation concerns how a hypothetical strike might unfold using a Kh-101 non-nuclear barrage. The example chosen is Okushiritou, a Japanese radar base on a hilly offshore island. One slide, discussing such an attack, is illustrated with an animated gif of a large explosion.

Video description

An animation of an explosion from a Russian presentation for officers illustrating an attack on Okushiritou

An animation of an explosion from a Russian presentation for officers illustrating an attack on Okushiritou © FT reporting

The slides reveal the care Russia took in selecting the target list. A note against two South Korean command-and-control bunkers includes estimates of the force required to breach their defences. The lists also note other details such as the size and potential output of facilities.

Photographs of buildings at Okushiritou, taken from inside the Japanese radar base, are also included in the slides, along with precise measurements of target buildings and facilities.

Michito Tsuruoka, an associate professor at Keio University and a former researcher at Japan’s Ministry of Defence, said conflict with Russia was a particular challenge for Tokyo if it was the result of Russia spreading the conflict from Europe — so-called “horizontal escalation”.

While the Japanese military, and the air force in particular, has long been concerned about Russia, Tsuruoka said Russia “is not often seen as a security threat by ordinary Japanese”.

Russia and Japan have never signed an official peace treaty to end the second world war because of a dispute over the Kuril Islands. The Soviet army seized the Kurils at the end of the war in 1945 and expelled Japanese residents from the islands, which are now home to about 20,000 Russians.

Fumio Kishida, the then-prime minister of Japan, stated in January that his government was “fully committed” to negotiations on the issue.

Dmitry Medvedev, former president of Russia, said on X in response: “We don’t give a damn about the ‘feelings of the Japanese’ . . . These are not ‘disputed territories’ but Russia.”

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Russia’s plans show a confidence in its missile systems that has since been proven to be overstated. The hypothetical mission against Okushiritou involved using 12 Kh-101s launched from a single Tu-160 heavy bomber. The document assesses the chance of destroying the target at 85 per cent.

However, Fabian Hoffmann, a doctoral research fellow at the University of Oslo, said that during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Kh-101 proved less stealthy than anticipated and struggled to penetrate areas with layered air defences.

Hoffmann added: “The Kh-101 features an external engine, which is a common characteristic of Soviet and Russian cruise missiles. However, this design choice significantly increases the missile’s radar signature.”

Hoffmann also noted that the missile had proved less accurate than hoped. “For missile systems with limited yield that rely on pinpoint accuracy to destroy their targets, this is an obvious problem,” he said.

A Russian map showing the route taken by a bomber flight to test the air defences of its Asian neighbours, with markings showing where it was intercepted by South Korean and Japanese fighters © FT reporting

A second presentation on Japan and South Korea offers a rare insight into Russia’s habit of regularly probing its neighbours’ air defences.

The report summarises the mission of a pair of Tu-95 heavy bombers, sent to test the air defences of Japan and South Korea on February 24 2014. The operation coincided with Russia’s annexation of Crimea and a joint US-Korean military exercise, Foal Eagle 2014.

The Russian bombers, according to the file, left the long-range aviation command’s base at Ukrainka in the Russian Far East for a 17-hour circuit around South Korea and Japan to record the responses.

It notes that there were 18 interceptions involving 39 aircraft. The longest encounter was a 70-minute escort by a pair of Japanese F4 Phantoms which, according to the Russian pilots, were “not armed”. Only seven of the interceptions were by fighter aircraft carrying air-to-air missiles.

The route almost identically matches that taken by two Tu-142 maritime patrol aircraft earlier this year when they circumnavigated Japan during strategic exercises in the Pacific in September, including a flight over the disputed area near the Kurils.

Financial Times · by Chris Cook · December 31, 2024

16. North Korean troops making ‘human wave’ attacks against Ukrainian forces, US says

North Korean troops making ‘human wave’ attacks against Ukrainian forces, US says

Stars and Stripes · by David Choi · December 31, 2024

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, center, observes troops firing their rifles at an undisclosed military base in North Korea, March 6, 2024. (Korean Central News Agency)

CAMP HUMPHREYS, South Korea — North Korean troops deployed to Russia’s western border with Ukraine are conducting “human wave tactics” on the battlefield, leading to more than 1,000 casualties within their ranks last week, a White House spokesman said recently.

North Korean troops supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are conducting ground assaults in the Kursk region against Ukrainian forces that have led to “heavy casualties,” White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Friday during a news conference in Washington, D.C.

“It is clear that Russian and North Korean military leaders are treating these troops as expendable and ordering them on hopeless assaults against Ukrainian defenses,” he said. “These North Korean soldiers appear to be highly indoctrinated, pushing attacks even when it is clear that those attacks are futile.”

The White House had received reports that North Korean troops were killing themselves, instead of surrendering, Kirby said, “likely out of fear of reprisal against their families in North Korea in the event that they’re captured.”

North Korean troops have suffered “many losses” and Moscow and Pyongyang “have no interest in the survival of these Koreans at all,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in a video address Friday.

“Everything is arranged in a way that makes it impossible for us to capture the Koreans as prisoners,” Zelenskyy said. Those who were captured were “seriously wounded and could not be resuscitated,” he said.

Militaries and intelligence agencies in Ukraine, the United States and South Korea have estimated around 10,000-12,000 North Korean troops have deployed to Russia since October.

Since 2022, Pyongyang has shipped artillery shells and ballistic missiles to Russia in its fight against Ukraine, according to South Korea’s military. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin in June pledged mutual military aid if either of their countries were at war.

President Joe Biden on Monday announced the U.S. would send nearly $2.5 billion in security assistance to Ukraine. This package includes medium-range surface-to-air missiles, artillery shells, small arms, grenades, communications equipment and clothing, according to a Defense Department news release that day.

“At my direction, the United States will continue to work relentlessly to strengthen Ukraine’s position in this war over the remainder of my time in office,” Biden said in a White House statement Monday.

The security package is in addition to the $3.5 billion sent Monday to Ukraine by the Treasury Department, State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development. The funds are meant to directly support Ukraine’s budget, including the salaries of government employees, teachers and healthcare workers.

“Ukraine’s success is in America’s core national interest,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a department news release Monday. “Stopping Russia’s illegal invasion will help uphold a global democratic, rules-based, order that advances American security and economic interests, and it will send an unmistakable message to autocrats and would-be aggressors around the world that they will face unshakeable resolve.”

Congress has approved over $180 billion in funds and military assistance to Ukraine since Russia’s invasion in 2022, according to a September report from the U.S. Ukraine Oversight Interagency Working Group, a group of 24 federal agencies tasked with overseeing assistance to Kyiv.

Stars and Stripes · by David Choi · December 31, 2024

17. South Korea poised to crash and burn in 2025

I am not as pessimistic. Yes, 2025 can be a challenge but South Korea canright itself and our alliance can weather the storms.

South Korea poised to crash and burn in 2025 - Asia Times

2024 was bad but 2025 could be worse as Seoul’s dysfunctional politics collide with the Trumpian storm to come

asiatimes.com · by William Pesek · December 31, 2024

It’s hard to think of any Asian nation happier to see the back of 2024 than South Korea.

In just the last month alone, President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law, backtracked six hours later, got impeached by parliament against the backdrop of massive street protests and now faces a historic arrest warrant.

If that wasn’t enough chaos and woe, the nation suffered its worst local aviation disaster in more than two decades, killing over 181 and raising harsh new questions about the safety of Korean skies.

Korea’s truly rotten December deepened what was already something of a midlife crisis year for Asia’s fourth-biggest economy. And yet, this may be as good as it gets as a wildly uncertain 2025 arrives: Seoul’s decidedly dysfunctional politics are about to collide with the Trumpian storm to come.

Even if, best-case scenario, “increased US protectionist measures imply lower tariffs on Korean exports than on other trading partners,” says economist Brian Coulton at Fitch Ratings, “declining demand from China and the US, which together accounted for around 40% of Korean goods exports in 2023, will negatively affect exports.”

Though the US president-elect’s threats of 60% tariffs are aimed at China, Korea will be right at the center of the collateral damage zone of potentially weaker Chinese demand. Japan, too, but then Tokyo isn’t embroiled in a political imbroglio the likes of which Seoul hasn’t seen in decades.

Something that Japan and Korea have in common, though, is being snubbed by Trump. Since his re-election on November 5, Trump rebuffed repeated overtures from Yoon and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba for a Mar-a-Lago tee time.

Both Yoon and Ishiba have watched as Trump met with a parade of world leaders, including Canada’s Justin Trudeau, France’s Emmanuel Macron, Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky, Hungary’s Viktor Orban, Argentina’s Javier Milei and even the UK’s Prince William. But so far, he’s had no time for Washington’s top North Asian allies.

Whether that means Trump plans to throw Seoul and Tokyo under the tariff bus is anyone’s guess. Or that Trump’s hopes of a “grand bargain” trade deal with China take precedence.

As Yoon awaits possible arrest and his fate in the courts in the months ahead, Seoul’s distracted legislators won’t be doing much to raise Korea’s competitive game.

Even before Yoon’s bizarre martial law decree on December 3, his People Power Party wasn’t getting much done to level economic playing fields, address near-record household debt, increase productivity, empower women or improve corporate governance.

Yoon’s first 966 days in office were anything but a reformist whirlwind. As such, the odds of his party being able to devise an ample policy response to the Trump 2.0 shock are negligible.

That will leave the Bank of Korea even more in the driver’s seat. Since Yoon took power in May 2022, the BOK has taken the lead in managing one of the globe’s most open major economies. Now, the political vacuum in Seoul has Governor Rhee Chang-yong on the hot seat as never before.

Before Yoon’s short-lived martial law stunt, Seoul was planning to shore up key sectors as headwinds from Washington intensify. Chief among them is a package of support measures for the crucial semiconductor industry.

Home to leading memory chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, Korea faces greater uncertainty over Trump’s tariff plans than most peers. On December 2, Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok said, “the next six months will be the golden time that will decide the fate of our industries.”

Choi added that “given the current challenges, including global economic shifts under the incoming US administration, competition from emerging countries and the rapid reorganization of global supply chains, the role of the government must evolve from a supporter to a player working alongside businesses.”

Since then, though, Choi has been elevated to acting president, the third to serve as president this month. “So South Korea’s most bizarre and explosive political crisis in decades just got even weirder,” says Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group.

That means it falls to his replacement to spearhead support for semiconductor firms — from fiscal assistance to tax incentives — to bolster the tech ecosystem. And to do so amidst rising political rancor.

These initiatives include everything from top-down policies to subsidizing the costs of burying transmission cables for semiconductor clusters in cities like Yongin and Pyeongtaek.

Already, Choi is doing his best to reassure the public. “Although we are facing unexpected challenges once again, we are confident that our robust and resilient economic system will ensure rapid stabilization,” Choi said on December 27.

Yet Choi inherits a 2025 budget that’s US$2.8 billion less than the government had hoped for. And now he’s also managing a second national crisis following the crash of the Jeju Air jet.

“There are already signs the crisis is having an impact on the economy,” says economist Gareth Leather at Capital Economics. “The crisis is unfolding against a backdrop of a struggling economy,” he says.

Gross domestic product, Leather notes, is expected to be just 2% this year amid slowing global growth. “Longer term, political polarization and resulting uncertainty could hold back investment in Korea,” Leather says, pointing to how Thailand’s turmoil since a 2014 coup undermined its economy.

Other economists are more optimistic. “We come from being an underdeveloped country to one of the world’s most dynamic economies in very few years, and Yoon Suk Yeol is a side effect of the growth,” economist Park Sang-in at Seoul National University told AFP. “Korean society was mature enough to counter his crazy actions.”

Analysts at BMI Country Risk & Industry Research write that “for now, we expect limited implications for the economy and financial markets as the Bank of Korea and the Ministry of Finance have responded swiftly by reassuring investors.”

Notably, BMI says, “the central bank committed to boosting short-term liquidity and enacting measures to stabilize the foreign exchange markets, which aligns with our view that risks around the South Korean won should remain contained for now.”

Krishna Guha, an economist at Evercore ISI brokerage, argues that “South Korea’s democratic institutions and culture have withstood the stress test. But it is extraordinary and troubling that it happened at all.”

Yet the question now is when and how the political crisis ends, particularly now that Yoon faces an arrest warrant. Its longevity is key to the Korean won’s outlook.

“If domestic political instability continues and external credibility in Korea decreases, the won’s price could fall further,” says economist Seo Jeong-hoon at Hana Bank.

Economists at T Rowe Price write that “political turmoil appeared to continue to weigh on investor sentiment in South Korea.”

Even before the blow-after-blow that hit Korea in December, Yoon’s presidency had been awash in challenges and controversies. Soon after Yoon took power, the Korean won plunged, North Korea unleashed a torrent of provocations and Seoul faced heavy criticism for its handling of a deadly Halloween 2022 crowd crush that killed 159 people.

All too quickly, Yoon’s approval rating fell below 30%, the danger zone for any leader in Seoul promising bold structural reform.

Yoon is the fourth Korean leader since 2008 who took power pledging to generate more economic energy from the ground up, not just the top down. Broadly speaking, that meant taking on the “chaebol system” led by family-owned behemoths like Samsung that helped propel Korea into the ranks of the top 12 economies.

The backdrop is that Korea Inc knows that so much of what it does well has been commoditized. China and other rising Asian powers are now rivals in cars, electronics, robots, ships and popular entertainment. Taiwan is constantly raising its innovative game, while upstarts like Indonesia and Vietnam are making the race for tech “unicorn” startups more competitive and dynamic.

The best way for Korea to maintain its high living standards is to innovate in ways that propel the economy upmarket even faster. That’s why Yoon and the three leaders who preceded him pledged an innovative “big bang” to move Korea into higher-value sectors.

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Between 2008 and 2013, Lee Myung-bak came and went without fundamental changes to the chaebol system. Then came Park Geun-hye, Korea’s first female president. In 2013, she took office with bold talk of devising a more “creative” economy.

Park promised to shift tax incentives toward startups, strengthen antitrust enforcement and penalize big companies for hoarding profits that could be used to fatten paychecks.

Park ended up going easy on the chaebols. Yet she did succeed in enlivening Korea’s startup economy. Her efforts to increase the flow of cash to innovators helped morph Korea into a top 10 incubator of tech unicorns, or companies with a market capitalization surpassing US$1 billion.

Moon Jae-in, Park’s successor, expanded the program. Trouble is, the chaebols continue to hog the economic oxygen startups need to grow into large game-changers. That’s still Korea’s dilemma today.

It has loads of startups, but the conglomerates “don’t often allow space” for them to thrive and become medium-sized enterprises, notes Yukiko Fukagawa, an entrepreneurship expert at Waseda University.

Moon took power in 2017 with ambitious plans to pursue “trickle-up economics.” A more liberal leader than the previous two, Moon set out to wrestle economic control from Korea’s rigid corporate system to increase competitiveness.

His signature policy of enriching the middle class was essentially the flipside of the strategies championed by Trump, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Ronald Reagan decades before. Yet when Moon grasped the difficulty of the task – and the messy political fallout to come – he backed off and left economic management duties to the BOK.

So has Yoon these last 31-plus months. Now, as acting President Choi manages dueling crises, he faces a wildly uncertain 2025 – both domestically and internationally.

One hope is that Korea Inc can raise its game in spite of political chaos. As Sohn Kyung-shik, chairman of the Korea Enterprises Federation, puts it, “companies must also make more proactive efforts toward economic recovery and job creation during these tough times.”

In top-down Korea, though, that might be easier said than done. Particularly with domestic politics in complete chaos just as the “Trump trade” heads Korea’s way.

Follow William Pesek on X at @WilliamPesek

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asiatimes.com · by William Pesek · December 31, 2024

18. US experts: Kim Jong-un's anti-American remarks are a negotiating strategy to Trump

Comments from a number of us. (they like to use the term "expert" but I remain a humble practitioner who is a student of north Korea and as I tell my students, anything I say can and should be challenged)).

This is a Google translation of an RFA report.

US experts: Kim Jong-un's anti-American remarks are a negotiating strategy to Trump

https://www.rfa.org/korean/in_focus/nk_nuclear_talks/kim-jong-un-trump-negotiation-strong-anti-us-12302024150643.html

WASHINGTON-Kim Ji-soo kimjis@rfa.org

2024.12.30

U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un shake hands ahead of their summit in Hanoi, Vietnam, on February 27, 2019.

/ AP

00:00 /04:30

Anchor : North Korea experts in the U.S. have assessed that North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un is using an attention-grabbing tactic by talking about the " strongest anti-American response " strategy to gain the upper hand in future negotiations with U.S. President-elect Trump . This is reporter Kim Ji-soo reporting .

Recently, North Korea announced at the 11th Plenary Session of the 8th Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea that " a strategy to respond to the United States with the utmost force to ensure national interests and security was declared ," and North Korea experts in the United States unanimously agreed that this was a tactic by North Korea to obtain concessions in negotiations with the United States .

Bruce Klingner , a senior researcher at the Heritage Foundation in the United States , told Radio Free Asia (RFA) on the 30th that North Korea was attracting public attention with vague expressions before President Trump's inauguration .

[ Senior Researcher Klingner ] I think the phrase “ strongest anti-American response ” certainly caught everyone ’s attention . But there ’s no specifics on what North Korea’s “ strongest measures or policies” are . As always , they’re just making vague threats about what they ’ll do if they cross a certain red line .

Senior Researcher Klingner pointed out that the plan is not specific about what the new U.S. administration and the new South Korean administration intend to do , or what plans they will make for next year , and that it does not present specific military goals beyond the vague goal of implementing the five - year plan established four years ago .

David Maxwell, deputy director of the Asia-Pacific Strategy Center, told Radio Free Asia (RFA) on the 30th that Chairman Kim Jong-un wants to create a situation in which the United States wants to negotiate out of fear of the North Korean regime, but this is a misunderstanding of Trump, who believes that " people do not negotiate out of fear . "

It also analyzed that it will be difficult to establish diplomatic relations between North Korea and the United States for the time being, as both US President-elect Trump and Chairman Kim Jong-un are negotiating through public statements that extract political and economic concessions through threats and provocations .

Kim added that he would only return to diplomacy with the United States if he was offered something tangible.

Bruce Bennett, a senior researcher at the RAND Corporation, also told Radio Free Asia (RFA) on the same day that North Korea will create conditions to gain the upper hand in negotiations this time because of the memory of the breakdown of the 2019 North Korea-U.S. summit in Vietnam .

[ Bennett ] I think this is clearly a negotiating tactic . I think Chairman Kim felt betrayed by Trump when he came out of Hanoi . I think Chairman Kim wanted to have a big win . So he’s not going to give Trump a chance . He’s going to create conditions where Trump has to be really prepared to make concessions this time , and that may or may not be what Trump is prepared to do, but that’s what he’s asking for .

Sidney Seiler, former director of the National Intelligence Council's (NIC) North Korea program, also told Radio Free Asia (RFA) that Chairman Kim Jong-un will be considering all possible scenarios until after the U.S. presidential inauguration next year, adding that North Korea could be planning a series of provocative actions, such as ICBM launches, after President Trump takes office , and that it could wait a bit longer to see how President Trump approaches the Korean issue .

In particular , it analyzed that North Korea's ambiguous expression of " the strongest anti -American response" could be an attempt to calm domestic expectations for US-North Korea diplomacy "returning to the 2018-2019 era ."

North Korea's State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un presided over the 11th Plenary Session of the 8th Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea from the 23rd to the 27th, announced a "strongest strategy to respond to the United States", and replaced key officials, including appointing Pak Tae-song as Premier of the Cabinet, the Korean Central News Agency reported on the 29th. /Yonhap

“ North Korea takes cautious stance ahead of Trump’s second term at plenary meeting ”

Ministry of Unification : “ North Korea’s plenary meeting to focus on solidifying the system and minimizing external messages”

On the 29th , the Korean Central News Agency reported that at the expanded meeting of the 11th Plenary Session of the 8th Central Committee held at the headquarters of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea from the 23rd to the 27th with Chairman Kim Jong -un in attendance, " a strategy of strong countermeasures against the U.S. to ensure national interests and security was declared . "

However, the specific details of the 'strongest strategy to respond to the US ' were not disclosed.

North Korea said , “ The United States is the most reactionary state entity that has taken anti-communism as its unchanging national policy, and the reality that the US-Japan-ROK alliance has expanded into an aggressive nuclear military bloc and the Republic of Korea has been reduced to a thoroughgoing anti-communist outpost for the US clearly shows us the direction we should take and what we should do and how we should do it . ”

Attention is being paid to what message Chairman Kim Jong-un will deliver to the United States at upcoming events, including the North Korean New Year's Day .

Editor Park Jeong-woo, Web Editor Lee Gyeong-ha

19. [Special Roundtable: The Path North Korea Is Taking] ② “Eradicate the Remnants of Capitalism”

Among the many contradictions of north Korea: The markets are key to the resilience of the Korean people in the north. But, like the example of the very existence of South Korea, markets and capitalism are an existential threat to the regime and therefore Kim believes he must eliminate them.

This is a Google translation of an RFA report.

[Special Roundtable: The Path North Korea Is Taking] ② “Eradicate the Remnants of Capitalism”

https://www.rfa.org/korean/news_indepth/north-korea-centralized-economy-policy-12302024103737.html

WASHINGTON-Noh Jeong-min, Seo Hye-jun nohj@rfa.org

2024.12.30

A view of Hyesan Market in Yanggang Province, North Korea

/ RFA photo

00:00 / 00:00

[ Host ] Hello , everyone . As we close out 2024 and enter 2025, I am Noh Jeong-min, the host of today's [RFA Special Panel Discussion : The Path North Korea Is Taking ], where we diagnose and analyze the current state of North Korea's politics , economy , and society . We have connected the two of you at the same time .

First, we have Jiro Ishimaru, the representative of the Osaka office of Asia Press , a Japanese media outlet that reports on internal news from North Korea . We also have Jeong Ho Ri, the representative of the Korea Prosperity Development Center and former high-ranking official of Room 39 of the North Korean Workers ' Party . Good morning, both of you .

Through these two people, we will discuss the current state of North Korean society, where North Korea is headed , and what steps it will take in the future .

Return to the state control system … Hostility to individual economic activity

[ Host ] Continuing from last time, let's move on to the next topic . Representative Ishimaru, you've done a lot of reporting on the real lives of North Korean residents this year , and you've pointed out a number of problems with the North Korean market in particular . You said that the most important change in the North Korean economy is the " anti-market policy . " Could you elaborate on the current state of the North Korean market ?

[ Ishimaru Jiro ] Yes . The big change became visible starting in 2022. At first , I didn't really understand, ' What are they trying to do? ' , but now I see that they 've started very strong controls such as ' Almost all consumer goods must go through the state-run distribution network . ' Originally, merchants in the market brought in goods at their own discretion, stored them , set prices , and sold them , but now almost all of that is impossible . Now, in the market , with the exception of vegetables , meat , and such, almost all goods can be sold only after being reported and registered with the market management office . For example, you can't buy things like soap , toothpaste , and medical supplies on your own; almost all of them have to be sold wholesale at state-run stores . In other words, a system controlled by the state has become widespread .

And rice and corn have disappeared from the market . Now they can only be purchased at grain stores . Trade is also supervised by the Ministry of Trade, and trading companies have little discretion . There is a slogan . It is , “ Eradicate the remnants of capitalism . ” So even small restaurants run by private homes are banned . Individuals are not allowed to hire more than two people . In this way, a system has been created that thoroughly opposes individual economic activity .

[ Host ] Representative Lee Jeong-ho . Representative Ishimaru just pointed out the current state of the North Korean market and economy . Why do you think the Kim Jong-un regime is doing this ?

[ Lee Jeong-ho ] Representative Ishimaru made a very accurate point ; Kim Jong-un does not know the living conditions of the people . Kim Jong-un wants the state to strongly control even the daily lives of the people . During the previous Kim Jong-il era, during the Arduous March , companies were allowed to have autonomy in management rights and the markets were opened to some extent, creating a space where people could buy necessary goods and food and live . However , Kim Jong-un is so obsessed with his power that he is trying to control even the daily lives of the people .

However, in order to conduct transactions through state-run stores and state-run banks, the country needs to secure the necessary amount of goods and create a system to circulate funds. However , there is no such system, so it is nonsense to forcibly take away the people's property and do so , and this cannot continue . In fact, if this happens , the people's lives will suffer more , and many people will die . It is because ( the situation in North Korea ) is not disclosed to the outside world , but if this happens, how will the people live ?

[ Host ] So, Representative Ishimaru, you also reported previously that cash income decreased due to market control , and many people died of starvation as a result . North Korea is currently implementing a policy of purchasing through grain stores or state-run stores . Representative Ishimaru , are transactions being conducted properly at grain stores or state-run stores ? [ Ishimaru Jiro ] Yes . Looking at the economic situation, I think the worst period was between March and September of last year . In local cities, there were deaths among the vulnerable class due to malnutrition and disease . However, starting in April of this year , local governments have been providing food support to the urban famine households , that is, the lowest class of people who have no money and nothing to eat , called famine households . This is why there were not that many deaths this year . Meanwhile, food could only be purchased at grain stores , but this has led to poor business and poor personal labor . But shouldn't people have cash income ?

But from the Kim Jong-un regime's point of view, they are trying to get individuals out of the market and encourage them to go to work at enterprises . Starting in 2022, if you go to work, you will be given rations worth 5 to 10 days . And at the end of last year, in 2023 , your salary was increased by more than 10 times . With that cash, you are told to go to a grain store and buy food like that . I see this as a " calorie reign " policy , and since people's businesses were not doing well and their cash income was reduced , they were told that if they went to enterprises, they wouldn't starve to death, so many people started going to enterprises .

[ Special Discussion : The Path North Korea Is Taking ] ① “ Complete Severance from South Korea Due to Regime Instability ”

[ Special Feature : Shrinking North Korean Market ] ① “ Business is not good, so I’m closing down my stall ” [ Special Feature : Shrinking North Korean Market ] ② ‘ High-priced oil policy, low-priced oil policy ’… The market continues [ Room 39, Lee Jeong-ho’s Eyes ] “ North Korean officials also use the market … Only Kim Jong-un is against it ”

[ Host ] Representative Lee Jeong-ho . Then, from the perspective of the Kim Jong-un regime, there may be an assessment that things are going as they were induced . In the midst of this, the Kim Jong-un regime also implemented the ' Local Development 20x10' policy this year . There is also curiosity about whether the local development policy will really be of any help , given the difficult lives of North Korean citizens . What is your view, Representative ? [ Lee Jeong-ho ] Among Representative Ishimaru's comments, there was a point where the Kim Jong-un regime forcibly controlled the market, and the people who were in the market returned to the factories , and so it was said that ' Kim Jong-un's policy has had some results , ' but no matter how much people do business in the market, they are not making a profit and ( their lives ) are difficult, so they have no choice but to go to the factories , and how can they feed their families with the 5 to 10 days' worth of food that the factories give them ? I think this is achieved through a coercive control method , not through the regime's incentive policy .

It can be said with certainty that the current Kim Jong-un regime's " Local Development 20x10" policy cannot fundamentally succeed under a centrally planned economic system . Unless North Korea transitions to a market economy , this policy is likely to remain nothing more than symbolic propaganda . This is because North Korea had its most prosperous economic period in the 1970s . Even then, local industrial factories did not function well . The reason is simple . Local areas do not have a stable supply of raw materials, fuel , and electricity necessary for production , and since the goods produced by factories are distributed according to a plan, companies cannot generate profits . Therefore, companies that fail to pursue profits cannot secure the funds or raw materials needed for the next production by themselves and ultimately have no choice but to depend on the central government . How can local factories normalize production when even central enterprises are not operating properly ?

Raw materials that are essential for food production, such as sugar, beans, and wheat flour, are highly dependent on imports, and it is difficult to resolve the issue without central government guarantee . That is why I believe that production will not happen automatically just by building a factory and making it look nice .

An elderly man collects firewood in Hyangsan County, North Pyongan Province, North Korea. / AP

“ There is no hope for the residents’ livelihoods in 2025 ”

[ Host ] Mr. Ishimaru . In the midst of all this, we are approaching the year 2025. As you said, North Korean citizens have been living very difficult lives in 2024. In addition, food prices and exchange rates have risen significantly recently, so I think North Korean citizens will have a harder time . What do you foresee as the economic situation and livelihoods of North Korean citizens in 2025 ?

[ Ishimaru Jiro ] There's not much hope . There's something we need to pay attention to right now . That's the surge in prices . It's been very serious since late November . We 're conducting a price survey once a week . White rice has gone up 1.65 times since January 2024 , gasoline has gone up 2.15 times , and the US dollar has gone up 3.4 times . But these are unofficial prices . On top of that , the price of food at grain stores is the official price , and that's also gone up a lot . That's why there's chaos now, and people are saying, " Our cash income has already decreased a lot , so how are we going to live on this ?" The authorities are also strengthening crackdowns to prevent hoarding , and I don't know enough to figure out ( the cause ) , but I think this problem is caused by a major flaw in the Kim Jong-un regime's economic management . In particular, the value of the North Korean currency has fallen so much, which is not normal . It has fallen to one- third of what it was at the beginning of this year . So, while we may have gained a lot from Russia by participating in the Ukrainian war , I find little to be optimistic about the future of ordinary citizens .

[ Host ] Whenever I interviewed CEO Ishimaru at the end of every year, I asked him , “ What are your predictions for next year? ” and he always said, “ I don’t see any hope . ” This year, too, he said he didn’t see any hope for next year, and I feel bitter about that .

Mr. Lee Jeong-ho, in relation to Mr. Ishimaru’s diagnosis, what are your predictions for the North Korean economy and the people’s livelihoods next year ?

[ Lee Jeong-ho ] Yes . As Representative Ishimaru said, the situation in North Korea is bleak . That's because the planned economic system requires the state to secure sufficient supplies to distribute to the people and make them work , but the national treasury is empty , and the people are continuously controlled and squeezed , so the current rising prices and falling currency value are a clear reflection of the country's economic condition . So I hope that North Korea will change its economic system in the future so that the people can really live well , but I don't see any hope at all .

This is Jeongmin Noh of RFA Radio Free Asia .

Editor Park Jeong-woo Web Editing Lee Gyeong-ha

20. Kim Jong-un ends year with lavish letter to Putin, sidelining China

Like Mark Twain, the death of the China-north Korea relationship may be greatly exaggerated.

Kim Jong-un ends year with lavish letter to Putin, sidelining China

koreaherald.com · by Ji Da-gyum · December 31, 2024

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un presides over the annual year-end general meeting of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea, held from Dec. 23-27, in this photo published by the Korean Central News Agency on Sunday. (Yonhap)

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s New Year letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin, filled with ornate praise and pledges to deepen their comprehensive strategic partnership, underscores the stark contrast with Pyongyang’s increasingly strained relations with China.

While Kim praised Russia as a "close comrade-in-arms," China-North Korea ties marked their 75th anniversary with neither public celebrations nor a closing ceremony for the designated Friendship Year, reflecting growing discord beneath the surface.

Kim penned the letter Monday and extended warm New Year greetings to “Comrade Putin, his closest friend and comrade," North Korean state media reported Tuesday in a Korean-language dispatch.

In the letter, Kim conveyed "heartfelt blessings on behalf of himself, the Korean people, and all the service members of the DPRK’s armed forces to the fraternal Russian people and the valiant members of the Russian military."

The DPRK stands for North Korea’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

The Unification Ministry on Tuesday highlighted the unusual nature of Kim extending blessings on behalf of all the service members of North Korea’s armed forces, given the regime’s concealment from its people of troop deployments to support Russia’s war efforts in Ukraine, which have resulted in deaths and injuries.

“Although North Korea has not officially confirmed it, such an expression is presumed to have been used with the ongoing deployment of troops to Russia in mind,” a senior Unification Ministry official said Tuesday on condition of anonymity during a closed-door briefing.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un exchange documents during a signing ceremony of a new partnership in Pyongyang, North Korea, on June 19, 2024. (File Photo - Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)

In the letter, Kim described 2024 as a year that will elevate the North Korea-Russia friendship to “a new height of strategic cooperative relationship and close comrade-in-arms.”

Kim also “expressed his willingness to further solidify the comprehensive strategic partnership between the DPRK and Russia by planning and vigorously implementing new initiatives for the realization of the great national causes of both countries and for the peace and prosperity of their peoples, based on the most genuine and fervent comradely trust.”

Kim and Putin signed a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty, including mutual defense commitments, during Putin's June visit to Pyongyang -- his first in 24 years.

Kim also expressed hope that the coming year would be marked as “the first year of war victory in the 21st century” and wished for Putin’s great success.

Kim has frequently sent personal letters to Putin on key occasions this year such as his birthday, Russia's National Day and "Victory Day" on May 9 to emphasize the close ties between Pyongyang and Moscow and highlight his rapport with Putin.

Kim’s eloquent New Year letter to Putin — the only such correspondence reported by North Korean media as of Tuesday — stands in sharp contrast to the increasingly strained relations between China and North Korea.

This year marks the 75th anniversary of diplomatic ties between China and North Korea, yet no significant ceremonies or events have been publicly held to commemorate the occasion until the last day of this year, aside from an opening ceremony in April in Pyongyang.

On the first day of 2024, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Kim Jong-un jointly designated the year as the China-North Korea Friendship Year and announced the launch of a series of commemorative activities.

However, beyond the visit of a Chinese delegation led by top legislator Zhao Leji for the opening ceremony in April, there have been no additional visits by senior officials from either side. Furthermore, no closing ceremony had been reported as of Tuesday, the final day of the year.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping speak during a plenary session in the outreach/BRICS Plus format at the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, on October 24, 2024. (File Photo - Reuters)

When questioned Monday about the events held to commemorate the Friendship Year, China’s assessment of the year and the absence of a closing ceremony, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning refrained from directly responding.

Mao instead said, "China and the DPRK are friendly neighbors and always enjoy a traditional friendship and cooperative ties."

"China stands ready to work with the DPRK to follow the important common understandings between the leaders of the two countries and to maintain, consolidate and develop our bilateral relations," Mao added during a press briefing.

In its annual forecast of the global landscape for 2025, the Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security, under the auspices of the Foreign Ministry in Seoul, assessed that “China and North Korea outwardly highlighted strategic cooperation in 2024, while their relationship was strained beneath the surface by mounting mutual discontent and distrust.”

"This dynamic is expected to persist in China-North Korea relations throughout 2025," the report read. "China needs to sustain strategic cooperation with North Korea at the bilateral level amid intensifying strategic competition with the United States," the report stated.

It noted that China has sought to distance itself from the deepening Russia-North Korea partnership and carefully managed its policies toward the EU and the Korean Peninsula while downplaying the significance of North Korea's troop deployment to Russia.

The report forecast that the Kim Jong-un regime might formalize its troop deployments to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, particularly if casualties or returning troops make secrecy untenable.

"Given this, Pyongyang may, in the first half of 2025, publicly acknowledge the troop deployment and launch a campaign framing it as a 'sacred duty in the battle against imperialism.'"

koreaherald.com · by Ji Da-gyum · December 31, 2024

21. North Korea quietly honors war dead as casualties in Russia climb

North Korea quietly honors war dead as casualties in Russia climb

Newsweek · by Micah McCartney · December 31, 2024

The North Korean authorities are reportedly handing out "war certificates" to families of soldiers killed in action on the front line of Russia's war against Ukraine.

Newsweek reached out to the Russian Foreign Ministry and the North Korean Embassy in China with written requests for comment.

Why It Matters

Grieving families of those killed in action are receiving the documents, as well as government-issued supplies and benefits, in exchange for secret pledges not to share any of the details they were given. Pyongyang continues to deepen its military ties with Moscow amid increasing reports of North Korean soldiers fighting—and dying—on the front lines of Russia's war against Ukraine.

What To Know

Radio Free Asia cited a source in South Pyongan Province, north of the capital Pyongyang. They said they had on December 18 received a notice summoning them to a Workers' Party of Korea committee event to distribute the certificates.

The event was reportedly attended by about a dozen family members of soldiers who "died while participating in sacred combat training in the honor of the motherland," the source said, speaking on condition of anonymity for their safety. They added that most of the honored dead had served in the elite Storm Corps.

Ukrainian servicemen operate a T-72 tank in the Sumy region, near the border with Russia, on August 12. North Korea has begun awarding war certificates and supplies to families of troops killed there. Ukrainian servicemen operate a T-72 tank in the Sumy region, near the border with Russia, on August 12. North Korea has begun awarding war certificates and supplies to families of troops killed there. Roman Pilipey/AFP via Getty

Families were reportedly compelled to sign nondisclosure agreements. Despite this, "bereaved families assumed that their children had gone to Russia and died," the source said.

Another source from South Pyongan Province told the news agency: "I was told by a colleague who participated in the event that about 20 of the bereaved families received their death certificates." The authorities withheld details about where and how the soldiers died, only stating they had "died honorably for the sake of the Party and the country."

The absence of location and cause of death was unusual, the source added, noting that these details are typically disclosed for soldiers who die during combat training in North Korea.

"The authorities are monitoring the movements of the bereaved families who have been awarded 'war certificates' and trying to block public opinion," the source said.

"There is growing public outrage among residents that young soldiers in their 20s were forced to take bullets in order to earn foreign currency," the source added.

South Korea estimates over 11,000 North Korean troops have been deployed to Russia's Kursk region, where Ukrainian forces have been waging a counteroffensive since August.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently said there have been over 3,000 North Korean casualties in Kursk. South Korea reported over 1,000 casualties last week. Newsweek has not verified either figure.

Neither Pyongyang nor Moscow has acknowledged the presence of North Korean troops in Russia.

What People Are Saying

Andriy Yermak, chief of staff to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, wrote on Sunday in a post on the Telegram social media platform of the prospect of North Korean troops popping up along the border of members of NATO, the 32-member security alliance Ukraine has applied to join.

"When we talk about what European countries and NATO states should think about, it is worth considering the risks of hybrid threats at the borders," Yermak wrote. "The appearance on the borders of NATO countries of the DPRK (Democratic People's Republic of Korea) military dressed in Russian uniforms, or Iranian proxies, is quite real, if you do not stop Russia now."

"The DPRK military is already fighting in Europe. Who could have thought of this before?

"Impunity breeds permissiveness. Right now is the moment that requires strong decisions and strong actions," Yermak added.

What's Next?

Washington and its allies have warned Russia could provide advanced weaponry and technical expertise to advance Kim Jong Un regime's United Nations-sanctioned nuclear and missile programs.

Admiral Samuel Paparo, head of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, recently said North Korea is set to receive aging Russian MiG-29 and Su-27 fighter jets.

South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff has warned that Pyongyang will continue sending its troops to fill out Russia's military ranks.

About the writer

Micah McCartney

Micah McCartney is a reporter for Newsweek based in Taipei, Taiwan. He covers U.S.-China relations, East Asian and Southeast Asian security issues, and cross-strait ties between China and Taiwan. You can get in touch with Micah by emailing m.mccartney@newsweek.com.

Micah McCartney is a reporter for Newsweek based in Taipei, Taiwan. He covers U.S.-China relations, East Asian and Southeast Asian ...

Newsweek · by Micah McCartney · December 31, 2024

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

Access NSS HERE

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US experts: Kim Jong-un's anti-American remarks are a negotiating strategy to Trump

[Special Roundtable: The Path North Korea Is Taking] ② “Eradicate the Remnants of Capitalism”

Kim Jong-un ends year with lavish letter to Putin, sidelining China

North Korea quietly honors war dead as casualties in Russia climb

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What People Are Saying

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