Quotes of the Day:
"Each part of the American war machine had its own mission, and was going to do what it did regardless of the facts on the ground. The DEA wanted to destroy opium, the human rights bureaucracy pushed women's rights, and the military wanted to keep the war going. Nobody was there to force these disparate parts to work towards a common goal in a way that made sense. Theoretically, the president should have done so, but the American system clearly rewards political competence more than it does the ability to build stable democracies on the other side of the world. Often extremely self-aware, American officials were not as stupid or incompetent as they were self-interested cogs in a system filled with misaligned incentives."
- Richard Hanania
"One's life has value so long as one attributes value to the life of others, by means of love, friendship, indignation and compassion."
- Simone de Beauvoir
"A room without books is like a body without a soul."
- Cicero
1. Minor quake hits off Baengnyeong Island, no damage reported
2. Unification ministry budget for inter-Korean cooperation rises 2 pct in 2022
3. The Korean Peninsula Conundrum - True Peace, Security and Human Rights (OKN Book Launch with HRNK)
4. [ICKS Annual Conference] Security Challenges on the Korean Peninsula in 2022: Prospects for Peace and Stability
5. New daily cases hit new high of 5,352; 3 additional omicron cases reported
6. North Korean leader sports new look
7. Seoul, Beijing push for virtual summit in January
8. Activity at the Uiju Airfield Suggests Further Preparations for Reopening the Border
9. Defending against nukes
1. Minor quake hits off Baengnyeong Island, no damage reported
I hope all those underground tunnels built by the ROK Marine Brigade remain structurally sound. I guess this is a good test in preparation for a north Korean artillery attack.
Minor quake hits off Baengnyeong Island, no damage reported | Yonhap News Agency
SEOUL, Dec. 4 (Yonhap) -- A 2.3 magnitude earthquake occurred at 12:33 a.m. on Saturday in waters 16 kilometers northwest of Baengnyeong Island near the inter-Korean western border.
There were no immediate reports of casualties or damage to properties, according to the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA).
The epicenter was located at a latitude of 38.02 degrees north and a longitude of 124.52 degrees east, while its depth was an estimated 20 km.
ksnam@yna.co.kr
(END)
Keywords
2. Unification ministry budget for inter-Korean cooperation rises 2 pct in 2022
Don't they have a lot leftover from last year?
Unification ministry budget for inter-Korean cooperation rises 2 pct in 2022 | Yonhap News Agency
SEOUL, Dec. 3 (Yonhap) -- The unification ministry's next year budget for inter-Korean cooperation slightly increased despite chilled cross-border exchanges in the face of deadlocked nuclear negotiations and the North's prolonged border lockdown, according to officials.
Under the budget plan approved by the National Assembly earlier in the day, the 2022 budget for the ministry handling inter-Korean relations was set at 1.5 trillion won (US$1.3 billion), up from this year's 1.48 trillion won.
Of the total, 1.27 trillion won was set aside for the inter-Korean cooperation fund, a 2.1 percent hike from this year's 1.24 trillion won, with 31.1 billion won newly allocated to foster local governments' cooperation with the North.
It is unclear, however, whether South Korea will be able to spend the budget to promote inter-Korean relations amid a stalemate in nuclear talks between Washington and Pyongyang, and frayed relations between the two Koreas. In 2020, only 3.7 percent of the cooperation fund was actually spent.
"The budget execution rate is also low for this year. We would need a change in circumstances surrounding the Korean Peninsula to use the fund, and it will also depend on the COVID-19 situation," a ministry official told reporters on background. "The budget allocation reflects our determination to financially back local governments' push for cross-border exchanges."
Other new projects under the ministry budget include 200 million won to counter fake news and 3.28 billion won to build a database center on North Korea and unification in Goyang, just northwest of Seoul.
The budget to support North Korean defectors' settlement here, meanwhile, was cut 2.7 percent to 95.2 billion won due to a decrease in the number of people fleeing the North amid its strict border control to stave off the coronavirus.
scaaet@yna.co.kr
(END)
3. The Korean Peninsula Conundrum - True Peace, Security and Human Rights (OKN Book Launch with HRNK)
We are unveiling a new publication about the end of declaration proposal and H.R, 3446 and what that means to security on the Korean Peninsula.
15 authors (some of whom will be speaking on the panels below) take a critical look at the end of war declaration.
The Korean Peninsula Conundrum: True Peace, Security and Human Rights (OKN Book Launch with HRNK)
The Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK) cordially invites you to a book launch by the One Korea Network (OKN).
Monday, December 13, 2021
11:30 a.m. – 3:00 p.m.
DACOR Bacon House
1801 F Street, NW
Washington, D.C. 20006
The event will be held in person. Livestreaming will not be provided.
Please RSVP by completing and submitting the form below. Thank you.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[SCHEDULE OF EVENTS]
(11:30 a.m. - 12:00 p.m.) Registration
(12:00 p.m. - 12:15 p.m.) Welcoming Remarks
- Greg Scarlatoiu (Executive Director, HRNK)
- Col. Grant Newsham, USMC (Ret.) (President, Korea Conservative Political Action Conference)
(12:10 p.m. - 12:15 p.m.) Book Introduction
- David Maxwell (Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies)
(12:15 p.m. - 1:00 p.m.) Lunch
(1:00 p.m. - 1:10 p.m.) Keynote Address
(1:10 p.m. - 2:00 p.m.) SESSION I: NATIONAL SECURITY
Moderator: Dr. Tara O (Adjunct Fellow, Hudson Institute)
Speakers:
- David Maxwell (Senior Fellow, FDD)
- Dr. Bruce E. Bechtol, Jr. (Professor, Angelo State University)
- Col. Grant Newsham, USMC (Ret.) (President, KCPAC)
- Gordon Chang (Author & Commentator, Newsweek)
(2:00 p.m. - 3:00 p.m.) SESSION II: HUMAN RIGHTS
Moderator: Olivia Enos (Senior Policy Analyst, The Heritage Foundation)
Speakers:
- Greg Scarlatoiu (Executive Director, HRNK)
- Amb. Morse Tan (Former Ambassador-at-Large for Global Criminal Justice, U.S. Department of State)
- Dr. Sung-Yoon Lee (Kim Koo-Korea Foundation Professor in Korean Studies, The Fletcher School at Tufts University)
(3:00 p.m.) Closing Remarks
4. [ICKS Annual Conference] Security Challenges on the Korean Peninsula in 2022: Prospects for Peace and Stability
[ICKS Annual Conference] Security Challenges on the Korean Peninsula in 2022: Prospects for Peace and Stability
<The Annual Conference of the International Council on Korean Studies (ICKS) and the Council on Korea-U.S. Security Studies (COKUSS), jointly with the Seoul National University Alumni Group (SNUA) & the U.S. Committee for Human Rights in North Korea (HRNK)>
Friday, December 10, 2021
08:45 AM - 05:00 PM
The Hudson Institute
1201 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Suite 400
Washington, DC 20004
**The event will be held in person at The Hudson Institute. Livestreaming will NOT be provided.**
The full program is enclosed below.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(08:15 AM) REGISTRATION
(08:45 - 09:00 AM) OPENING REMARKS
Speakers
- The Honorable John P. Walters, President & CEO, The Hudson Institute
- General Byung-Kwan Kim, ROKA (Ret.), Co-Chairman, COKUSS (ROK Council)
- General John H. Tilelli, Jr., USA (Ret.), Co-Chairman, COKUSS (U.S. Council)
- Mr. Greg Scarlatoiu, Executive Director, HRNK
- Dr. In-Hwan Oh, Seoul National University Alumni Group Organizer
- Dr. Bruce E. Bechtol, Jr., President, ICKS; Professor, Angelo State University
(09:00 - 11:15 AM) PANEL I: FOUR POWER RELATIONS ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA
*Moderator: Young-Ok Park, Former Vice Minister of National Defense, Rep. of Korea
Papers
1. "Japan’s Role in Korean Security Issues"
- Mr. James Durand, ICKS
2. "China’s Role in Korean Security Issues"
- Mr. Gordon Chang, Newsweek
3. “North Korea, the USA and the ROK, and Regional Security”
- Dr. Taewoo Kim, Former President of the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU)
Discussants:
- William Newcomb, former member, UN Panel of Experts
- Dr. Nicholas Eberstadt, American Enterprise Institute
- General Byung-Hyuk Choi, ROKA (Ret.), Former DCDR of Combined Forces Command (ROK-U.S. CFC)
(11:30 AM - 12:45 PM) LUNCHEON & LUNCHEON SPEECH
“Security and Stability Issues on the Korean Peninsula”
- General John H. Tilelli, Jr., USA (Ret.), Co-Chairman, COKUSS (U.S. Council)
Introduced by Dr. Tara O, Adjunct Fellow, Hudson Institute; Board Member, ICKS
(1:00 PM - 3:00 PM) PANEL II: HUMAN RIGHTS & THE FUTURE OF THE KOREAN PENINSULA
*Moderator: Mr. David Maxwell, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Papers
1. "The Future of Human Rights in North Korea"
- Mr. George Hutchinson, ICKS
2. "Tying Human Rights to U.S.-DPRK-ROK Negotiations"
- Mr. Greg Scarlatoiu, HRNK
3. "The ROK-U.S. Alliance and Human Rights"
- Prof. Youngshik (Daniel) Bong, Yonsei University Institute for North Korean Studies
Discussants:
- Dr. Bruce E. Bechtol Jr., ICKS; Angelo State University
- Mr. Troy Stangarone, KEI; Board Member, ICKS
- Prof. Sungpyo Hong, Ajou University
(3:00 PM - 5:00 PM) PANEL III: KOREAN HISTORY & CULTURE
*Moderator: Dr. Jai P. Ryu, President, One Korea Foundation; Board Member, ICKS; SNUA Group member
Papers:
1. "The Demise of Internationalism in North Korea, 1945-1958: A Portrait of Ko Hǔi-man"
- Dr. James Person, Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies)
2. "Ancient Korean Astronomical Data and Their Historical Implications"
- Dr. Chang Bum Park, Korea Advanced Sciences Institute
(To be presented by Dr. In-Hwan Oh, SNUA Group Organizer, Vice Chairman, ICKS)
3. "From Jealousy to Violence: Marriage, Family, and Confucian Patriarchy in Fifteenth Century Korea"
- Dr. Jisoo Kim, Director, GW Institute for Korean Studies, The George Washington University
Discussants:
- Mr. Donald M. Bishop, Minister-Counselor (retired), U.S. Foreign Service; Krulak Center Distinguished Fellow, Marine Corps University
- Dr. Nam-Sung Huh, Vice Chairman, COKUSS
(5:00 PM) END OF THE CONFERENCE
5. New daily cases hit new high of 5,352; 3 additional omicron cases reported
(LEAD) New daily cases hit new high of 5,352; 3 additional omicron cases reported | Yonhap News Agency
(ATTN: ADDS more details from 8th para)
SEOUL, Dec. 4 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's daily coronavirus cases recorded an all-time high of 5,352 on Saturday, a day after the country announced tough restrictions for four weeks to control the spread of the omicron variant.
New cases of critically ill patients and deaths also hit record highs while an additional three confirmed cases of the omicron variant were reported to bring the total cases in the country to nine.
The daily new COVID-19 cases included 5,327 local infections, raising the total caseload to 467,907, according to the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA).
Saturday's total infections mark the highest number since the country reported its first COVID-19 case in January 2020 and exceeds the previous record of 5,226 reported Thursday.
The number of critically ill patients came to 752, up 16 from 736 on Friday, while the death toll came to 3,809, up 70 from a day earlier. The fatality rate stood at 0.81 percent.
Of the locally transmitted cases, Seoul reported 2,268 new cases, and the surrounding Gyeonggi Province posted 1,671.
The number of cases from overseas came to 25, raising the total to 15,842.
Of the nine confirmed cases of the omicron variant, four came from overseas and five were local infections.
The country's first confirmed cases of the variant were discovered in a fully vaccinated couple who returned home from Nigeria last week.
Health authorities are worried about a possible community infection involving the variant, with tests currently under way on over 400 people who attended the same church service in Incheon, 40 kilometers west of Seoul, as family members of one of the nine infected.
The confirmed cases of the omicron variant pushed the government to tighten its eased rules that began last month under the "living with COVID-19" scheme.
Starting Monday till Jan. 2, the maximum number of people at private gatherings will be cut to six in the greater Seoul area and eight in other areas, from the current 10 and 12.
Visitors to high-risk businesses, including saunas, pubs and gyms, have to show vaccine passes or a negative test result.
Restaurants, cafes, cram schools, movie theaters, public study rooms, libraries and museums are among the newly included places.
Those aged between 12 and 18 also will be required to meet the vaccine pass measures starting Feb. 1.
A one-week grace period for the vaccine pass system will be allowed before the rules are enforced.
Inbound travelers have to be put under a 10-day mandatory quarantine regardless of their vaccination status till Dec. 16.
The KDCA said 42.62 million people, or 83.1 percent of the country's population, have received their first shots of COVID-19 vaccines, and 41.28 million people, or 80.4 percent, have been fully vaccinated.
About 3.85 million people, or 7.5 percent of the population, have received a booster shot.
ksnam@yna.co.kr
(END)
6. North Korean leader sports new look
Kim Jong-un quote: "I don't care if I ruin north Korea and make the Korean people suffer, as long as I look good doing it." (note sarcasm)
Friday
December 3, 2021
North Korean leader sports new look
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un presides over a Politburo meeting at the Workers' Party headquarters in Pyongyang on Wednesday. [NEWS1]
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un sported a noticeably slimmed-down appearance and longer hair style in photos of a Politburo meeting of the reclusive regime's ruling party that he presided over on Wednesday, as reported by the party's newspaper.
Kim’s new look comes as the Workers' Party Politburo decided to convene yet another plenary meeting later this month to address the state of affairs in the nation.
The Rodong Shinmun, the newspaper operated by the Workers’ Party of Korea, reported that the Politburo meeting took place at the party’s Pyongyang headquarters.
“Chairman Kim led the meeting and delivered decisions on the party’s general tasks,” the paper reported on Thursday.
The regime usually holds one or two plenary meetings between Workers’ Party Congresses to issue important leadership decisions.
However, the decision at Wednesday’s Politburo meeting will mean the country will hold its fourth plenary meeting of this year later this month, reflecting the continuing state of economic crisis in the North as a result of its self-imposed border closures since January 2020 to block the spread of Covid-19.
Kim’s appearance at the most recent meeting struck a contrast from other recent photos.
Although the photos of the meeting captured Kim at the far end of room, close examination shows that the North Korean leader has lost a remarkable amount of weight.
His jaw and chin are much more defined and he has grown his previously shaved sideburns, creating the appearance of a fuller head of hair.
The top part of his hair is still combed back, as per his signature hairstyle.
Reports on Kim’s public activities have been scant in recent months, with the leader making no appearances reported by the regime's state-run media between Oct. 11, when he visited a defense exhibition in the capital, and Nov. 16, when he visited construction sites in Samjiyon, Ryanggang, one of the North’s remote northern provinces.
A government official who spoke to the JoongAng Ilbo, an affiliate of the Korea JoongAng Daily, on the condition of anonymity said reports of Kim’s infrequent public appearances are likely part of an effort to project the leader’s active role in running the country.
He also added that the newly announced plenary meeting will likely discuss outside developments, such as Seoul’s push to achieve a formal declaration to terminate the 1950-1953 Korean War, which only ended with an armistice and not a peace treaty.
“Kim has a habit of making himself scarce before announcing major decisions, and this instance fits that pattern,” the official said.
BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]
7. Seoul, Beijing push for virtual summit in January
The only two countries of the Six Parties that really want an end of war declaration are the ROK and the PRC. Of course they have very different rationales and intent. We need to understand China's true intent (and it is not supportive of South Korea)
Seoul, Beijing push for virtual summit in January
Posted December. 04, 2021 07:28,
Updated December. 04, 2021 07:28
Seoul, Beijing push for virtual summit in January. December. 04, 2021 07:28. tree624@donga.com.
Yang Jiechi, a member of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party, expressed Beijing’s strong support of South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s bid to declare the end of the Korean War during his meeting with Suh Hoon, director of national security at the South Korean presidential office. The two sides agreed to push for a virtual summit meeting between Moon and Chinese President Xi Jinping in January, and are discussing details.
"China supports the push to declare the end of the war and believe that the end-of-war declaration will contribute to promoting peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula,” Yang was quoted by the National Security Office at the presidential office on Friday. “China consistently supports the South Korean government’s efforts to improve inter-Korean ties and will continue efforts towards peace and security on the Korean Peninsula.” Suh visited China for two days from Thursday at the invitation of Yang, and they held meetings for 5 hours and 35 minutes including a dinner on Friday.
On Beijing’s support of the end-of-war declaration, a ranking Seoul official said, “It means China has intention to play a constructive role in discussions about the end-of-war declaration.” However, China reportedly stopped short of mentioning specific ways to support the efforts. In October, Yang met with North Korean Ambassador to China Ri Yong Nam, but the two sides reportedly did not discuss the end-of-war declaration. Thus, watchers say Beijing agrees to Seoul’s push for the end-of-war declaration as a party to the Armistice Treaty. China also revealed its stance that it is premature to discuss specific ways including wording on the end-of-war declaration, which has been discussed between Seoul and Washington. The Chinese foreign ministry emphasized economic cooperation and the Beijing Winter Olympics in lieu of the end-of-war declaration on its website.
8. Activity at the Uiju Airfield Suggests Further Preparations for Reopening the Border
Maybe. Or maybe not.
Activity at the Uiju Airfield Suggests Further Preparations for Reopening the Border
Recent commercial satellite imagery indicates heightened activity in and around North Korea’s Uiju Airfield, located near the Chinese border, providing support for reports that the country may be planning to resume some level of trade and import in the near future.
Activity continues at the possible disinfection center on the airfield, including the movement of trucks and materials around the warehouses. The airfield also appears to have been partitioned off in recent months, with new fences or bollards, and a new rail spur has been constructed leading to the eastern end of the airfield. Operations at this facility will be vital to the resumption of international imports that would bring in much-needed food, medicine, and other materials for the first time in more than a year.
Despite these activities, the Chinese and North Korean customs yards in Sinuiju that handle truck crossings remain quiet, as they have been throughout 2021. This raises questions of whether trade and imports may be limited to just railways, if and when they resume.
Possible Disinfection Facility
At the possible disinfection center, activity was low over the summer but has increased in recent months. In the imagery from November 16, trucks can be seen on the site, and materials are placed alongside the runway and near the presumed exit of two of the warehouses. The amount and arrangement of these materials have changed in recent weeks.
The identity of the materials alongside the warehouses and runway is unclear. One report identified them as construction materials, but they also bear a resemblance to objects seen stored in the open air at Nampho container port earlier this year.
It is possible that the materials are the first pieces of cargo to come through the facility and that the facility has already started limited operations; however, it is impossible to conclude the facility is operating based on the limited number of images available.
Figure 1. Unidentified goods or materials near rail platform at Uiju Airfield.
Satellite image © 2021 Maxar Technologies. All rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Figure 2. Close up of additional unidentified goods or materials at Uiju Airfield.
Satellite image © 2021 Maxar Technologies. All rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Construction of the facility at Uiju Airfield began in March 2021 and included 10 large warehouses, support buildings and five railway platforms along a new spur that links the facility to the Chinese railway network via Sinuiju Station.
Airfield Internal Divisions
A detailed examination of images from August 16 through November 16 reveals a series of fences or bollards that divide the airfield into different zones and separate the warehouses from one another.
Figure 3. Overview of fencing at Uiju Airfield.
Satellite image © 2021 Maxar Technologies. All rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
To the north of the runway, each warehouse is paired with a companion railway platform that features cranes for loading or unloading of freight. The warehouses on the southern side are separated by the fencing, which seems to indicate that cargo coming into the country will be carefully controlled and subdivided as it goes through the quarantine process.
The precise nature of the arrangement is unclear and will probably not become so until large-scale operations begin.
The warehouses may contain decontamination equipment. Freight could be transported directly from the railway platform for disinfection. After that, it could be taken out of the warehouse through the opposite door for outdoor storage for a number of days.
Elsewhere at Uiju Airfield: Second Rail Spur
While prior analysis of Uiju has focused on the area around the runway, the airfield extends 2.6 kilometers (km) to the east to an aircraft maintenance area, a central east-west stem road along which are seven large aircraft revetments nested into a wooded hillside, and north to an east-west taxiway previously terminating at a distant aircraft alert apron and two aircraft storage areas.
Most of the aircraft were cleared from this area around the time construction began on the airfield, although some remained through at least June 21, when over a dozen MiG-21s were seen parked.
In July, construction began on a rail spur leading to this eastern area of the airfield. Approximately 12 small and medium buildings, four large storage areas, and a platform at the terminus of the rail spur were also constructed in this area.
Figure 4. Overview of second rail spur near Uiju Airfield.
Image © 2021 Planet Labs, Inc. cc-by-nc-sa 4.0. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Activity in this area has picked up since August 16, when numerous trucks and utility vehicles were observed moving about the area. Two semi-trailers and a cargo van were backed to the rail spur, and by August 22, a row of unidentified material had been arranged at each of the storage areas.
On October 10, significantly more materials had been delivered to the storage areas. Several flatbed railcars with cargo were parked adjacent to the loading platform, and additional materials had been offloaded onto the platform. By November 11, the railcars had departed, and most of the materials observed earlier on the four large storage platforms had been removed.
Figure 5. Close up of second rail spur’s platform.
Image © 2021 Planet Labs, Inc. cc-by-nc-sa 4.0. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Since at least August 13, aircraft and an assortment of trucks, vans and unidentified materials have been placed in the revetments along the central east-west road, the purpose of which is unclear. In the first revetment at the west end of the road, 12 MiG-21s are parked. Eight MiG-21s are in the second revetment, and an IL-28 is in the seventh revetment. The trucks and vans are in the remaining revetments. The arrangement of the aircraft within the revetments is not orderly, suggesting the aircraft might be derelicts and could not be flown out before the airfield conversion began. Alternatively, their continued presence may indicate that the airfield will be returned to its original purpose at some point in the future.
Figure 6. Close up of aircraft stationed near second rail spur.
Image © 2021 Planet Labs, Inc. cc-by-nc-sa 4.0. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
The new rail spur leads off the same line that comes across the border from China and into the loading platforms at the airfield, but unlike the other spur, this one doesn’t allow trains from China to run directly into the airfield.
The rail network connection favors trains heading in the opposite direction. Those coming from China or Sinuiju have to stop and back up into the spur. But there is little in the opposite direction. Beyond the airfield, the railway line continues 25 km past Uiju Town to the September Iron General Enterprise ironworks and terminates at Tokhyon Mine.
In Sinuiju City
Despite the activity at the possible disinfection facility, the customs yards for trucks on the Chinese and North Korean sides of the Yalu River were quiet in imagery from November 16. Pre-COVID, goods flowed into North Korea by both truck and train, although it is unclear if this will be the case when trade resumes.
North Korean authorities might prefer to rely on trains only because they can be sent directly to the Uiju Airport facility while keeping much greater separation from North Korean citizens in downtown Sinuiju.
Last month, South Korea’s KBS broadcast footage of a train heading into China from North Korea. The trip was reportedly part of preparations to reopen the railway line between the two countries.
Figure 7. Overview of Chinese customs yard in Dandong.
Satellite image © 2021 Maxar Technologies. All rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Figure 8. Overview of North Korean customs yard in Sinuiju.
Satellite image © 2021 Maxar Technologies. All rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
Also in Sinuiju, a riverfront development project has made progress throughout the summer. External construction of three circular apartment buildings appears to have been largely concluded, and foundations have appeared for two additional buildings.
The new buildings sit directly opposite Dandong and should make North Korea appear slightly more developed when viewed from the Chinese side.
Figure 9. New apartments and foundations visible in Sinuiju.
Satellite image © 2021 Maxar Technologies. All rights reserved. For media licensing options, please contact thirtyeightnorth@gmail.com.
9. Defending against nukes
Excerpts:
North Korea’s nuclear threats are not confined to the Korean Peninsula as they are extended to Japan and the U.S. mainland after its development of ICBMs. In that sense, we appreciate Seoul and Washington’s consensus on the significance of security cooperation among the three countries in the SCM.
But actions speak louder. The government must quickly restore the General Security of Military Information Agreement (Gsomia) between Seoul and Tokyo and establish a system to prevent a nuclear attack by North Korea by sharing intelligence among the three countries. North Korea’s nuclear weapons pose a grave threat to not only the present but also the future of the peninsula. Peace can arrive only after North Korea is completely denuclearized.
Thursday
December 2, 2021
Defending against nukes
South Korea and the United States decided to draw up an aggressive military action plan to cope with nuclear threats from North Korea. In an annual Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) Thursday at the Ministry of National Defense in Seoul, defense chiefs of the two countries agreed to a new Strategic Planning Guidance (SPG). Both sides will reflect the new guidelines in their joint Operation Plan 5015 to effectively deal with the North Korean nuclear threat.
After its sixth nuclear test in September 2017, North Korea began to make nuclear weapons in a full-fledged way, including tactical nukes. The two allies’ move to devise concrete measures to tackle the growing nuclear threat came much later than expected. But we welcome the development. Because Defense Minister Suk Wook said that the plan has nothing to do with the government’s pursuit of a declaration to end the 1950-53 Korean War, we hope the Moon Jae-in administration revises the operation plan in a desirable direction.
Despite the constant nuclear threats from North Korea, the pro-North administration has been pushing for an end-of-war declaration without any abatement in the North Korean nuclear programs. In fact, the government did not have any substantial meetings to discuss specific ways to take advantage of the U.S.’s extended deterrence. For instance, no meetings were held between the two allies’ ministers of defense or foreign affairs to deal with the issue even though the U.S. extended deterrence included not only the U.S. nuclear umbrella but also the mobilization of missile defense systems and conventional weapons. The Moon administration went so far as to suspend the Table Top Exercise (TTX) — which is related to the extended deterrence — over the last two years.
It is important to frame a new operation plan. But first, the Moon administration must review basic requirements for the extended deterrence in the SCM to help raise the credibility of the extended deterrence. The recent primary of the opposition People Power Party (PPP) was heated with a debate on the redeployment of U.S. tactical weapons in South Korea and NATO-style nuclear sharing from Uncle Sam. Both sides must candidly discuss such sensitive issues to help protect the South Korean people and the U.S. forces stationed here.
North Korea’s nuclear threats are not confined to the Korean Peninsula as they are extended to Japan and the U.S. mainland after its development of ICBMs. In that sense, we appreciate Seoul and Washington’s consensus on the significance of security cooperation among the three countries in the SCM.
But actions speak louder. The government must quickly restore the General Security of Military Information Agreement (Gsomia) between Seoul and Tokyo and establish a system to prevent a nuclear attack by North Korea by sharing intelligence among the three countries. North Korea’s nuclear weapons pose a grave threat to not only the present but also the future of the peninsula. Peace can arrive only after North Korea is completely denuclearized.
V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
