Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

"Memories of our lives, of our works and our deeds will continue in others."

– Rosa Parks

“Perhaps I know best why it is man alone who laughs: he alone suffers so deeply that he had to invent laughter.”

– Friedrich Nietzsche

“The cost of liberty is less than the price of repression.”

– W.E.B. Du Bois

1. South Korean President Faces Impeachment Motion After Declaring Martial Law

2. Who is Lee Jae-myung, the South Korean opposition leader?

3. What Just Happened in South Korea?

4. Surprise Martial Law Declaration Throws South Korea Into Turmoil (Updated)

5. Why Yoon staged a coup that lasted less than 160 minutes

6. South Korea's New Destroyer Is Designed To Fire Ballistic Missiles

7. Opposition parties submit impeachment motion against Yoon after martial law turmoil

8. U.S. 'encouraged by resilience' of S. Korean democracy after martial law turmoil: top envoy

9. Editorial: Why the delay? DPK's reluctance on spy law raises eyebrows (South Korea)

10. What has happened in South Korea and what does martial law have to do with it?

11. Risk of North Korea's miscalculation rises after South's martial law declaration

12. Crisis in South Korea, Catching Many by Surprise, Marks Country's Most Dangerous Confrontation in Decades

13. Oh, Seoul! Koreans meet a challenge

14. South Korea’s president lifts martial law hours after declaring it

15. South Korea Political Tumult Could Sour Appetite for Korean Assets

16. Chinese national arrested in US on charges of trafficking arms to North Korea

17. Actor and Former 707 Special Mission Group Member Lee Kwan-hoon Persuades Martial Law Troops: “Don’t Block the Way”

18. Actions create consequences: let’s think over some kimchi: a bit more on yesterday’s whirlwind in Korea

19. South Korea's sloppy coup attempt: Why'd Yoon do it?

1. South Korean President Faces Impeachment Motion After Declaring Martial Law

(Note: there will continue to be a lot of reporting on this incident but the Wall Street Journal (this article) and the New York Times (in the next) provide the most useful insights from the mainstream media professionals. There will be much more commentary from the Korea watchers that will provide useful and varied insights).

The bottomline for me is four things:

1) Despite the tragic event South Korean democratic institutions held. Everyone should take solace in that.

2) This will have international political and economic implications because South Korea has turned itself into a global pivotal state with global reach, politically, militarily, culturally, and economically as well as a partner in the arsenal of democracy which has global security implications.

3) I fear all the good work of the Yoon administration will be upended both internationally such as with trilateral ROK-Japan-US cooperation. However my worst worry is that the human rights upfront agenda, the necessary information campaigns, and the pursuit of a free and unified Korea will be significantly and negatively effected especially if and when the opposition comes to power after President Yoon either steps down or is impeached.

4) Kim Jong Un will work very hard to have his United Front Department and former 225th Bureau accelerate their efforts to subvert South Korean society and the government through its political warfare strategy.

Not a surprise that there are calls for impeachment. I think the question now is whether Yoon will step down before impeachment.

Also, the South Korean military was put in an impossible position. I am sure Kwangju was on their mind which is why they did not use excessive force to prevent the General Assembly from meeting and voting.

Here is my revised assessment. Fundamentally this is a domestic political issue but it has significant international implications politically and economically because South Korea has become a global pivotal state and a partner in the arsenal of democracy. Although this will not be a popular view, the Korean people in the South and all democracies should take solace that the democratic institutions of the Republic of Korea held and prevented a single leader from taking all power which fundamentall is what a republican government is designed to do. But there will continue to be huge political problems because of the domestic political divisions.

This martial law incident was really President Yoon's fight with the opposition Minjoo party and especially the opposition leader Lee Jae-myung.

This was surprising actioin and a huge miscalculation on Yoon's part that caught us all by surprise including apparently President Yoon’s own party leadership. It was obvious that this martial law order could not last long at all which Yoon must have known as well. A question is who was advising Yoon and what made him think martial law was the correct action?

Timing - lowest approval rating counterintuitively gives him the opportunity to act. (e.g., nothing to lose but with the hope that it will eradicate the racial left for the next conservative administration).

Timing - likely to receive little or no condemnation from the incoming Trump administration as much as there may be from Biden or would be if Harris had won.

Timing: large scale labor union protest to begin.

Trying to right a perceived wrong going back to Lee Myung Bak and Park Geun Hye, neither of whom purged the leftists from the government (e.g., what some consider a ROK "deep state") and the perceived leftist controlled media. Yoon must have thought this had to be done and done now.

Danger one - miscalculation and misunderstanding by ROK security forces who could interpret protests incorrectly and inappropriately use force that could cause escalation. Think Kwangju in May 1980 (for those who remember). Again this is likely why the ROK military did not use excessive force but they were put in an impossible situation.

Danger two - this will destroy the ROK conservative movement by delegitimizing it and ensure a win by the opposition in the next election (which was likely anyway).

Danger three - How will Kim Jong Un exploit this? If Yoon is correct and there are north Korean sympathizers (and agents/agitators from the United Front Department and the old Bureau 225) in South Korea (as I believe without a doubt that there are) we can expect them to incite violence in potential to cause Danger One above.

There is still a lot more to unpack - my concern is with the future of a human rights upfront approach (there must be no "whataboutism" because regardless of what happens with martial law in the South the 25 million people in the north are still victims of the worst crimes against humanity in the north since WWII). My concern is with how to affect and adjust an information campaign against the north. And ultimately my concern is with the impact on the pursuit of a free and unified Korea. This will certainly undermine the 8.15 unification doctrine.

The General Assembly voted to overturn and the military allowed the National Assembly to vote. Since Yoon accepted the vote the rule of law can be said to have prevailed and perhaps like Nietzsche that which does not kill me (or democracy) makes me (or democracy) stronger.

But I expect the that General Assembly will soon begin impeachment proceedings especially if Yoon does not heed the calls to step down.

The actions in South Korea will have in the human rights community and there are those who will want to use this to undermine South Korea’s ability to call out nK human rights by saying the Yoon government is hypocritical in calling for freedom and democracy in nK. While this is domestic politics it has regional global implications - economic markets will react and if there is any supply chain disruption due to labor unrest it will have global effects. We cannot say this is solely a domestic issue especially after South Korea has postured itself to be a global pivotal state.

Its internal politics have external effects. But I truly worry about how this will discredit the good work that Yoon has done with the 8.15 unification doctrine. Will any successor continue to follow the pursuit of a free and unified Korea or will they revert to the failed policies of the past in the naive hope that Kim Jong un will negotiate and denuclearize so there can be coe-exist between north and South while 25 million continue their unimaginable suffering in the north. The real losers in the this traffic event are going to be those 25 million Koreans in the north.

South Korean President Faces Impeachment Motion After Declaring Martial Law

Opposition parties are fewer than 10 votes short of two-thirds majority required to eventually remove Yoon Suk Yeol from office

By Jiyoung Sohn

and Timothy W. Martin

Updated Dec. 4, 2024 3:44 am ET

Who is Lee Jae-myung, the South Korean opposition leader?

The opposition leader rallied lawmakers to vote down President Yoon Suk Yeol’s martial law decree.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/03/world/asia/lee-jae-myung-opposition-leader.html

Lee Jae-myung, center, the opposition leader, speaking at the National Assembly in Seoul on Tuesday.Credit...Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images

By Minho Kim

Dec. 3, 2024

Minutes after South Korea’s president, Yoon Suk Yeol, declared martial law on Tuesday night through a decree, Lee Jae-myung, the main opposition leader, called on his supporters and members of his party to gather at the National Assembly.

Mr. Lee wanted lawmakers to pass a binding resolution to nullify the martial law decree, and he warned that the president might order the military to arrest them to stop the vote.

“The people should defend this nation,” Mr. Lee said during a live broadcast on social media on his way to the National Assembly in Seoul. “Please come to the National Assembly.” Thousands did.

Here is what to know about Mr. Lee.

From sweatshop worker to politician

Mr. Lee, whose parents cleaned public toilets for a living, spent his teenage years as a sweatshop worker, nearly losing his left hand.

Now 60, he worked for two decades as a labor lawyer defending workers’ rights before entering politics in the mid-2000s and rising up the ranks of the Democratic Party of Korea, becoming a mayor and then a provincial governor.

In April 2020, the Democrats won a supermajority in the National Assembly lasting four years.

Mr. Lee ran for the presidency in 2022, pushing for social programs that were widely popular among his supporters, like universal basic income and personal loans subsidized and backed by the national government.

But he lost narrowly to Mr. Yoon in a contest decided by less than 1 percentage point. Mr. Yoon’s election ensured a divided government in South Korea.

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A thorn in Yoon’s side

Instead of stepping aside after his electoral loss, Mr. Lee vaulted back to the center of South Korean politics within a few months. He won a seat in the National Assembly and became leader of his party, making him the central opposition figure in government.

In legislative elections held in April 2024, Mr. Lee led his party to another landslide victory, blowing out Mr. Yoon’s hope that an election victory could give him momentum in executing his agenda, such as health care reform. Mr. Lee tightened his grip on his Democratic Party, which he now leads.

With its supermajority in the National Assembly, Mr. Lee’s Democratic Party has repeatedly blocked Mr. Yoon’s proposed budget for the next year.

The opposition party has also voted to impeach Mr. Yoon’s close allies in the government. Tensions built up between the parties and the two men.

Charges of bribery, and a stabbing

Mr. Lee’s supporters often see him as a strong progressive force capable of breaking through establishment politics in South Korea. But Mr. Lee’s rise in politics has been marked by legal trouble.

In November, a judge found Mr. Lee guilty of lying during the 2022 presidential campaign about a bribery scandal involving development projects when he was mayor of Seongnam. (Under South Korean election law, it is a felony to deliberately lie while on the campaign trail.) He was handed a one-year suspended prison term.

Mr. Lee said he would appeal, but he cannot run for president again in 2027 if he loses the appeal. He has also been indicted on bribery and other criminal charges, accusations he denies.

Mr. Yoon’s conservative People Power Party has denounced Mr. Lee as a “criminal suspect” and has used the indictments in its campaign messaging. Under Mr. Yoon, state prosecutors have pursued Mr. Lee, his wife and his former aides with a series of investigations.

The opposition, in return, has accused Mr. Yoon, who was a prosecutor before he was elected president in 2022, of using the Ministry of Justice to stage Mr. Lee’s political persecution

In January, a disgruntled older man stabbed Mr. Lee in the neck with a knife, saying that South Korea was “in a civil war” and that he wanted to “cut the head” off the country’s “pro-North Korean” left wing.

His assailant was convicted of attempted murder and sentenced to 15 years in prison.

A scramble to defeat a decree of martial law

Before backing down from his martial law order, President Yoon said he was resorting to the extraordinary measure to “eradicate” threats from “the shameless pro-North Korean anti-state forces.”

Mr. Lee quickly called on lawmakers to beat back the order, and many rushed to the assembly to cast their votes. “My colleagues and I will defend our democracy with life,” he said, “but our powers might fall short.”

As parliamentary aides from major parties barricaded key entrances with chairs and desks to borrow time to pass the resolution, armed military personnel tried to enter the assembly building, located in the middle of Seoul’s busy financial district.

Troops smashed windows, leading some aides and opposition supporters to spray the contents of a fire extinguisher at the military, video footage on social media showed.

Jo Seoung-lae, chief spokesman of the Democratic Party, claimed that the military personnel who had entered the National Assembly had been trying to arrest Mr. Lee and other officials.

It was “a coup d’état and a plot to overthrow the government,” Mr. Jo said.

Hours after Mr. Yoon declared martial law, and after a few scuffles, the 300-member National Assembly passed the resolution to rescind martial law by a unanimous vote, 190-0.

Soon, the military retreated from the assembly.

“I still don’t feel like this is real, in the 21st century, in South Korea, but this is happening,” Mr. Lee said before Mr. Yoon said he would gather his cabinet and call off his order imposing martial law.

Choe Sang-Hun contributed reporting.

Minho Kim covers breaking news and climate change. He is based in Washington. More about Minho Kim

3. What Just Happened in South Korea?

What Just Happened in South Korea?

The president’s martial law declaration was swiftly denounced, but the constitutional crisis isn’t over yet.

by Darcie Draudt-Véjares

Published on December 3, 2024

carnegieendowment.org

commentary

Emissary

Published on December 3, 2024

The South Korean president’s imposition of martial law and the National Assembly’s rapid vote to demand an end to the decree have left the country with a slew of puzzling questions about the president’s political calculus and the country’s future.

Late Tuesday evening, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol stunned his country and the world with an attempt to impose martial law. In his announcement, Yoon cited budget gridlock, the impeachment of government officials, and the “trampling of the constitutional order” as his motivations, and said that the opposition-led “National Assembly has become a den of criminals and is attempting to paralyze the nation’s judicial administration.” Following the decree, Army General Park An-soo assumed command. He issued a proclamation imposing immediate and sweeping restrictions on political parties, public demonstrations, and labor organizing—the very foundations of Korean democratic activism. The decree even placed all media under military control.

Political leaders across the spectrum swiftly denounced the move. In an emergency late-night session, with military surrounding the building and protesters amassing outside, all 190 present members of the 300-seat National Assembly voted to block the decree. The rejection requires the president to end martial law but does not specify a time frame for doing so. National Assembly Chairman Woo Won-sik declared the decree “invalid” and added that “The people should . . . rest easy. The National Assembly will defend democracy with the people.”

Yoon’s miscalculation reveals the depth of his administration’s crisis and desperation to deal with political turmoil within his own party. The president, who assumed power in 2022, has approval ratings hovering in the twenties and mounting opposition not only from the Democratic Party, which has a commanding majority in the legislature, but also from rivalries within his own People Power Party, including frictions with chair Han Dong-hoon. His administration has also faced a number of scandals and inquiries, ranging from allegations of bribery to conflicts of interest, into cabinet officials and his wife. This attempt to override democratic institutions suggests either desperate overreach or grievous undemocratic impulses.

The parallels to Korea’s era of military dictatorship—from 1961 to 1987—are striking. The regimes of Park Chung-hee and Chun Doo-hwan maintained power through martial law, suppressing the exact civil liberties Yoon attempted to restrict. The democracy movement’s victory in 1987 came through massive protests and civil resistance, establishing civilian control that’s now deeply embedded in Korean political culture. Yoon’s allegations of North Korea sympathizers within the opposition—another reason he cited for his decree—also resurrects the justification of martial law used by the military dictatorship in the mid-twentieth century: war with the North, and an unsubstantiated fear of spies within the South.

But the past three decades have shown Koreans won’t tolerate democratic backsliding. The 2016-17 candlelight demonstrations that peacefully removed President Park Geun-hye showcased this civic engagement. Korean civil society, from student groups to religious organizations, maintains robust networks that can rapidly mobilize against perceived threats to democracy. As of publication, street protests continue in Seoul, with demonstrators calling for the president’s arrest.

Given the swift response from politicians and civil society, this crisis may ultimately strengthen Korean democracy by reaffirming civilian control and demonstrating institutional resilience. But the coming days could be turbulent, and critical questions remain about how the military leadership and Yoon’s cabinet will respond to the National Assembly’s rejection.

Update: Shortly after publication, Yoon lifted the martial law order.

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Darcie Draudt-Véjares

Fellow, Asia Program

Domestic Politics Democracy Military South Korea

Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.

4. Surprise Martial Law Declaration Throws South Korea Into Turmoil (Updated)

Surprise Martial Law Declaration Throws South Korea Into Turmoil (Updated)

South Korean troops appeared at the country's parliament and elsewhere in the capital after President Yoon Suk Yeol's declaration.

Joseph Trevithick

Posted 6 Hours Ago

twz.com · by Joseph Trevithick

South Korean military forces have descended on the country’s parliament building and other parts of the capital Seoul following President Yoon Suk Yeol’s unexpected declaration of martial law. South Korea’s political opposition has decried Yoon’s surprise move, the first of its kind in more than 40 years, which has already led to scuffling between civilians and security forces.

Yoon announced he was imposing martial law across the country in a brief televised announcement late on Tuesday local time. It is now Wednesday, Dec. 4 in South Korea.

In a televised address, President Yoon Suk Yeol said his decision to impose martial law in South Korea is supposedly critical for defending the constitutional order.

He also vowed to eradicate "anti-state forces," without elaborating on what exactly is meant by that term. pic.twitter.com/8xA8212Mux

— DW News (@dwnews) December 3, 2024

“The martial law is aimed at eradicating pro-North Korean forces and to protect the constitutional order of freedom,” Yoon said, according to South Korean news outlet Yonhap.

Yoon, a member of the People Power Party, accused the opposition Democratic Party of Korea of “clear anti-state behavior aimed at inciting rebellion” and of having “paralyzed state affairs and turned the National Assembly into a den of criminals,” according to CNN. He said that martial law was required to remove the “shameless pro-North anti-state forces” and pledged to “eliminate the anti-state forces and restore the country to normalcy as quickly as possible.”

This is the first time in more than four decades that South Korea’s government has declared martial law. In 1979, authorities in the country made the move following the assassination of long-time dictator Park Chung Hee. Martial law was extended the following year in response to pro-democracy protests.

From NYT: "This is the first time in 44 years that a South Korean leader has declared martial law. It was declared in 1980 during a pro-democracy uprising against the military."

— Alex Ward (@alexbward) December 3, 2024

The War Zone subsequently obtained a translation of the South Korean military proclamation regarding the martial law declaration that states the following:

“To safeguard liberal democracy and protect the safety of citizens from the threat of anti-state forces attempting to overthrow the Republic of Korea, the following orders are proclaimed effective from 11:00 PM on December 3, 2024, across the entire nation:

All political activities, including those of the National Assembly, local councils, political parties, and any political associations, assemblies, and demonstrations, are prohibited.
All acts that deny or attempt to overthrow the liberal democratic system, as well as the dissemination of fake news, manipulation of public opinion, and false propaganda, are prohibited.
All media and publications will be subject to the control of the Martial Law Command.
Strikes, slowdowns, and gatherings that incite social disorder are prohibited.
All medical professionals, including resident doctors, who are currently on strike or absent from their medical duties, must return to work and faithfully carry out their responsibilities within 48 hours. Violators will be punished under the Martial Law Act.
Measures will be taken to minimize inconvenience to ordinary, law-abiding citizens, except for anti-state forces or those attempting to overthrow the system.

Violators of this proclamation will be subject to arrest, detention, and search and seizure without a warrant under Article 9 (Special Authority of the Martial Law Commander) of the Martial Law Act. They will also be punished under Article 14 (Penalties) of the Martial Law Act.”

As already noted, South Korean military forces subsequently deployed to the National Assembly building, the seat of the country’s parliament, and other areas of Seoul. Imagery circulating online show Black Hawk helicopters operating around South Korea’s capital.

| South Korea's UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters over Seoul.

— Status-6 (Military & Conflict News) (@archer83able.bsky.social) 2024-12-03T15:28:08.664Z

| South Korea's security forces enter the building of the National Assembly in Seoul.

— Status-6 (Military & Conflict News) (@archer83able.bsky.social) 2024-12-03T15:17:04.886Z

Busses block the entrance to the National Assembly in Seoul.https://t.co/6tF4hi1DxH

— Faytuks Network (@FaytuksNetwork) December 3, 2024

There are also unconfirmed reports of the arrival of armored and other military vehicles, including K808/K806 series wheeled infantry fighting vehicles and 8×8 K30W Cheonho wheeled short-range air defense systems, in Seoul. At least one image being shared widely showing a column of IFVs has turned out to be from earlier this year.

Reports of military hardware in Seoul. We are trying to verify the time and date of these images, but watchers of the space tell us seeing military equipment moving in Seoul in this manner is quite uncommon. pic.twitter.com/FSr5lN52Kp

— Faytuks Network (@FaytuksNetwork) December 3, 2024

FYI this photo is old and not related to the current events in South Korea.

— Status-6 (Military & Conflict News) (@archer83able.bsky.social) 2024-12-03T15:02:20.288Z

Video clips show security forces scuffling with groups of civilians, reportedly including opposition lawmakers, outside the parliament building and elsewhere in Seoul. There have been reports that legislators and staff, as well as journalists, are being allowed into the National Assembly complex. The situation remains very fluid.

South Korean special forces are breaking the Parliament windows to enter the building. pic.twitter.com/tMUXyguVAD

— Clash Report (@clashreport) December 3, 2024

Cheers erupt as soldiers are pulling back from the building. For now, the South Korean people have successfully stopped soldiers from entering parliament pic.twitter.com/Ea6bxQhjPu

— Joseph Kim (@josungkim) December 3, 2024

South Korean MPs are trying to get pass the mass of soldiers. pic.twitter.com/HmJtrzKovr

— Clash Report (@clashreport) December 3, 2024

WATCH: Soldiers arrive at South Korea's parliament after president declares martial law pic.twitter.com/cZX4vsM34y

— BNO News (@BNONews) December 3, 2024

South Korean MPs are trying to get pass the mass of soldiers. pic.twitter.com/HmJtrzKovr

— Clash Report (@clashreport) December 3, 2024

I’m at the National Assembly. Reported military chopper flying low. Police with shields. People chanting “open the door” and confronting police, saying, “you are going to regret this. This is a sin that will go down the history.” More on @nknewsorg @southkoreapro pic.twitter.com/xqXeTjuj3V

— Jeongmin Kim (@jeongminnkim) December 3, 2024

Lee Jae-myung, who is head of the opposition Democratic Party, and Han Dong-hoon, the leader of Yoon’s People Power Party, have both decried the martial law declaration. South Korea’s parliament does have the authority to override martial law by a majority vote.

South Korean leader of the opposition Lee Jae-myung:

Yoon Suk Yeol is no longer the president of South Korea. pic.twitter.com/kdSlO5Ikg9

— Clash Report (@clashreport) December 3, 2024

Lee Jaemyung, leader of the Dem party, live-streaming himself climbing over the blockade wall at the National Assembly https://t.co/YGvxaV8VF7

— oomfenshmirtz (@o_biennis) December 3, 2024

The major unrest in South Korea follows already escalating political turmoil in the country. The Yoon administration has also been struggling to tackle strikes by doctors that have now put significant strain on the country’s healthcare system.

It also comes at a time of heightened tensions between South Korea and North Korea, the latter of which has been steadily taking more hostile actions, as well as becoming more deeply embroiled in Russia’s war on Ukraine. Yoon has adopted a hardline stance toward the North and has been actively pushing for a greater buildup of South Korea’s armed forces. He has even raised the possibility of his country developing its own nuclear arsenal.

South Korea is a major U.S. ally with approximately 28,500 American military personnel forward-deployed in the country.

“The Administration is in contact with the ROK government and is monitoring the situation closely,” a spokesperson for U.S. President Joe Biden’s National Security Council told The War Zone.

The full extent of the fallout from Yoon’s martial law declaration remains to be seen, but it is certainly an extremely worrisome development for the country.

We will continue to update this story as more information becomes available.

UPDATE: 12:15 PM EST —

South Korea’s parliament has now voted to end martial law and some security forces have since been seen leaving the National Assembly building. However, there are also reports that the South Korean military says it will continue to enforce martial law until ordered to cease doing so by Yoon.

South Korea's opposition leader Lee Jae-myung now warns members of the South Korean military to disobey the president's orders after the parliament voted 190-0 to end the martial law, and adds that they're breaking the law if they continue to implement military rule. pic.twitter.com/QkG3TwWt5i

— Adam Schwarz (@AdamJSchwarz) December 3, 2024

The military is leaving the Parliament building after the vote to lift martial law passed – YTN https://t.co/w9aSEwwRPd pic.twitter.com/UjYU1IQjOZ

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) December 3, 2024

Per YTN, the South Korean military is saying the martial law will remain in place until the president says otherwise/officially lifts it.

— Michelle Ye Hee Lee (@myhlee) December 3, 2024

“We’re seeking to engage our ROK [Republic of Korea] counterparts at every level, both here and in Seoul, the President, the National Security Advisor, the Secretary of State, have all been briefed on developments and are being kept appraised of the situation as it unfolds,” U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell has also now told Yonhap, adding that he was following the developments with “grave concern.”

UPDATE: 2:50 PM EST —

There are reports now that attempts were made to arrest Myung, Hoon, and Speaker of the National Assembly Woo Won-Sik following the initial declaration of martial law, but it is unclear whether Yoon’s government is still looking to do so.

Minju Party says they have found video footage of the army attempting to arrest major party leaders (Lee Jae-myung, Han Dong-hoon) and the assembly leader (Woo Won-sik) by entering their offices during the initial chaosm.yna.co.kr/view/AKR2024…

— 아나탈 (@gatamchun.bsky.social) 2024-12-03T18:21:07.026Z

BREAKING: Arrest warrants have been issued for South Korean opposition leaders Lee Jae-myung, Han Dong-hoon & Woo Won-sik.The South Korean Military have broken into the opposition party offices near the National Assembly in search of them.One of the most extreme moves yet by President Suk Yeol.

— Adam Schwarz (@adamjschwarz.bsky.social) 2024-12-03T18:55:30.765Z

Yoon has publicly announced his intention to comply with the National Assembly’s demand to bring the declaration of martial law to an end.

#UPDATE: South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol announces that martial law will be lifted on December 4, and that deployed forces will be withdrawn.https://t.co/6XUhmRYDL7 pic.twitter.com/2tJfAICYQJ

— Status-6 (Military & Conflict News) (BlueSky too) (@Archer83Able) December 3, 2024

Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Maj. Gen. Patrick Ryder took questions about the situation in South Korea and the potential for impacts to U.S. forces there at a routine press conference today.

“We’re continuing to monitor [the situation.] We’re in touch with the ROK right now,” Ryder said. “There has been essentially no impact on U.S. forces, but again, you know, we’ll continue to monitor and we’ll keep you updated.”

“My understanding is, no, they’re not … under any type of curfew. But, obviously, in these kinds of situations, you want to make sure that you’re paying attention, that you’re checking in with your unit, making sure that there’s accountability,” he continued. “Our commitment to the alliance and the defense of the Republic of Korea is ironclad.”

The U.S. State Department has also now stressed that it had no advance notice of Yoon’s plans and that the hope is for a peaceful resolution to the crisis in accordance with South Korean law.

“We want this to be resolved peacefully, in accordance with the rule of law, and certainly the legislature voting to pass something would be consistent with the law of that country,” Patel.

— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) December 3, 2024

“We continue to have grave concerns over some of these developments, but ultimately, it's our hope and expectation that this is resolved peacefully, in accordance with the with the rule of law.”

— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) December 3, 2024

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

twz.com · by Joseph Trevithick

5. Why Yoon staged a coup that lasted less than 160 minutes

The shortest martial law order the world has ever seen.

Is President Yoon so paranoid about north Korean subversion? But just because you are paranoid does not mean they are not really out to get you.

Why Yoon staged a coup that lasted less than 160 minutes

https://koreakontext.com/why-yoon-staged-a-coup-that-lasted-less-than-160-minutes/

I wasn’t worried much when the photos and videos of military personnel and vehicles (even choppers) being deployed to the National Assembly spread quickly on social media after President Yoon declared martial law:

Although I still believe in the strength of Korean democracy, my doubts about the competences of the involved institutions including the president himself weighed most heavily.

The military wasn’t prepared for this kind of operation—a very limited number of military forces were on the move—and the soldiers at the scene were not keen to enforce an unjustifiable martial law as the footage of the spec-ops soldiers being humiliated by the angry citizens show.

The constitution is crystal clear that the president can’t declare and sustain martial law alone. As soon as a quorum of lawmakers gathers, the legislature can lift martial law as it was proven so—the martial law’s shelf life was about 155 minutes.

Every bit of circumstances screams the question:

Why? why the hell?

Such an end was so obvious from the beginning. Is this part of an ongoing conspiracy, as some would like to believe? Let’s listen to his own words:

Dear fellow citizens, I hereby declare martial law to protect the free Republic of Korea from the threat of North Korean communist forces, to root out at once the shameless pro-North anti-state forces who are plundering our people’s freedom and happiness, and to safeguard our free constitutional order.

Um, I think we need Hanron’s razor here. Yoon’s sense of reality is way more warped than I imagined. Actually, Yoon’s previous remarks hinted this—I just didn’t know it was this skewed.

One of the first things Yoon did after the election was moving the presidential office from the Blue House to Yongsan. While agreeing in theory the need for relocation, many including me were scratching their heads with such a haste. Word on the street is Yoon believes the Blue House is so wiretapped by North Korean spies that he doesn’t want to work from there even for a day.

More recently, former National Assembly Speaker Kim Jin-pyo shared his flabbergasting exchange regarding the 2022 Itaewon stampede with Yoon in his memoir. According to Kim, Yoon suspected that the incident might have been orchestrated by “certain forces,” one of the conspiracy theories typically found in far-right YouTube channels.

It is well known that Yoon gets easily agitated when he doesn’t like the advice he is just given. No surprises that there was no one left to stop Yoon from shooting himself in the foot.

What will follow

There is no other way out: Yoon’s got to go. He doesn’t look like someone who would step down on his own, so an impeachment would be the only possibility.

The Minjoo Party has been pushing for impeaching Yoon for a while, but there had been little momentum. Its leader Lee Jae-myung is not that popular and is fighting a series of uphill legal battles. Minjoo’s impeachment campaign, including its latest move to impeach prosecutors, was more of Lee’s legal strategy to delay the final court ruling as much as possible—just like Trump’s.

Yoon has just delivered the best momentum Lee could ever yearned for. While prior scandals involving Yoon and First Lady Kim appeared to fall short of Constitutional Court’s impeachment threshold, the current circumstances—treason included—present a stronger case.

With Yoon ousted, Lee Jae-myung is most likely to be the next president. Minjoo has few contenders inside: Kim Dong-yeon is spineless (there are interesting stories about what happened between Kim and the Gyeonggi province officials hired by his predecessor Lee Jae-myung), Kim Bu-gyeom lacks a foothold yet.

Conservatives would need more time for soul searching. The past seven years since Park’s impeachment wasn’t enough obviously. As usual, its current leader Han Dong-hoon is being dragged by situation, not knowing when and how to take initiative.

One uncertainty factor is the vacancy in the Constitutional Court. 3 out of 9 judges need to be nominated by the national assembly and then granted by… the president. If the impeachment process stays longer in limbo than expected, Lee’s court case might bring some surprise.

6. South Korea's New Destroyer Is Designed To Fire Ballistic Missiles

South Korea's New Destroyer Is Designed To Fire Ballistic Missiles

South Korea's Jeongjo The Great destroyer is the first of a group of warships fitted with supersized vertical launch system cells.

Thomas Newdick

Posted 3 Hours Ago

twz.com · by Thomas Newdick

The Republic of Korea Navy (ROKN) recently commissioned the first of its new KDX-III Batch 2 destroyers, ROKS Jeongjo the Great — the service’s largest. Among the many advanced features incorporated in these warships, the latest version of the Korean Vertical Launch System — KVLS-II — is especially interesting. While initially expected to accommodate long-range surface-to-air missiles, the launchers are also planned to add ballistic missiles, which are a growing area of interest for South Korea.

ROKS Jeongjo the Great (pennant number 995) was commissioned on Nov. 27 at the HD Hyundai Heavy Industries (HD HHI) shipyard in Ulsan after more than two years of trials. This is the first of three KDX-III Batch 2 destroyers, which follow on from the three KDX-III Batch 1 warships that were commissioned between 2008 and 2012. Collectively, the KDX-III warships are also known as the Sejong Daewang class.

#HyundaiHeavyIndustries has successfully delivered ROKS Jeongjo the Great, the first KDX-III Batch II AEGIS destroyer, to the #ROKNavy. It is recognized as the most advanced next-generation AEGIS destroyer in service. #KDXIII #AEGIS #AdvancedWarships pic.twitter.com/nonwmI9tBr

— Hwarang (@KDefenseInsight) November 27, 2024

In terms of specifications, Jeongjo has an overall length of 558 feet, a beam of 69 feet, and a full displacement of around 12,000 tons. This puts it at the very top end of contemporary destroyers, closer in size to a cruiser, although these definitions have become increasingly subjective.

Powered by four gas turbine engines and two auxiliary propulsion systems, the destroyer can reach a top speed of around 30 knots.

Compared with the previous KDX-III Batch 1 warships, the Batch 2 features improved sensors and weapons, based on the latest Baseline 9 version of the Aegis combat system, including the AN/SPY-1D(V) multifunction radar. Overall, KDX-III Batch 2 is intended to offer enhanced surveillance, strike, and anti-submarine warfare capabilities compared with its predecessors.

DDG-II Jeongjo the Great.

So beautiful… pic.twitter.com/m68o7r8voT

— ハク Mason (@mason_8718) November 30, 2024

Central to these capabilities are the KDX-III Batch 2’s various vertical launch systems (VLS), which are a unique mix of the U.S.-made Mk 41, the locally developed KVLS, and the improved KVLS-II. Of these, the KVLS-II is a new addition to this sub-class.

Between them, these provide for a total of 88 launch cells: 48 for the Mk 41, 16 for the K-VLS, and 24 for the KVLS-II.

Mk 41 VLS cells on the Jeongjo, located between the main gun and the Mk 15 Phalanx close-in weapon system (nearest camera). via X

Altogether, this ‘magazine capacity’ is on par with other high-end surface combatants. For context, the U.S. Navy’s Flight III Arleigh Burke class destroyer has 96 VLS cells, while the Zumwalt class stealth destroyer has 80 cells, and the Chinese Type 055 Renhai class ‘super-destroyer’ has 112 cells.

Looking at the specific weaponry for each of these launchers on the KDX-III Batch 2, the Mk 41 will be armed with the Standard Missile (SM) series for longer-range air defense, including anti-ballistic missile capability. These missiles will comprise the SM-3 Block IB, SM-2 Block IIIB, and SM-6. Of these, only the SM-2 Block IIIB is found on the previous KDX-III Batch 1. The additional missile options reflect the importance of the KDX-III Batch 2 to defend against North Korean ballistic missile attacks, while the SM-6 also offers a surface attack capability when launched in a quasi-ballistic mode.

The KVLS handles shorter-range air defense needs, being armed with the Korean Surface-to-Air Anti-Missile (K-SAAM), as well as the South Korean-designed Haeseong Tactical Surface Launch Missile (TSLM) for land attack, and the Korean Anti-Submarine Rocket (K-ASROC), also known as the Hong Sang Eo, or Red Shark, an anti-submarine weapon that has a homing torpedo as its payload.

A K-SAAM surface-to-air missile is fired from a vertical launcher. Agency for Defense Development

A diagram of the Korean Vertical Launch System (KVLS). Agency for Defense Development

Finally, and most intriguingly, there are the KVLS-II cells. These are initially expected to be armed primarily with the Long-range Surface-to-Air Missile (L-SAM), another domestic missile design, also with anti-ballistic missile capability.

A video showing the land-based L-SAM, developed locally by the Agency for Defense Development (ADD) as a ‘high-end’ air defense system with significant anti-ballistic missile (ABM) capabilities:

However, there have long been signs that the KVLS-II will ultimately be used to accommodate other weapons, too.

The KVLS-II is currently still under development with Hanwha Defense as a follow-on to the earlier KVLS, which is found on the KDX-III Batch 1 as well as the Daegu class frigates.

The destroyer ROKS Sejong the Great (pennant number 991), off the coast of Hawaii during Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) 2010 exercises. This is the first of the KDX-III Batch 1 warships. Photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Brandon Raile/Released

In the KDX-III Batch 2, the KVLS-II will be installed as six modules of four missiles each. These are located towards the rear of the vessel, aft of the twin funnels, and ahead of the helicopter flight deck. For the time being, Jeongjo is fitted with a test version of the KVLS-II, which appears to consist of just four cells, at least based on photos of the warship under construction. This suggests another five modules will be added at a later date.

The KVLS-II test configuration on the Jeongjo appears to have four cells, seen on the left, next to a KVLS launcher. via X

The KVLS-II reportedly retains the same ‘hot launch’ operating principle as the KVLS. With a hot launch, the missile’s main rocket booster ignites while it is still inside the launcher, in contrast to a cold launch, where the missile is ejected first, often using a compressed gas generator, before the booster ignites.

Most significantly, the KVLS-II is larger than its predecessor, meaning that bigger missiles can be accommodated. According to available data, the KVLS-II is at least 3 feet (0.9m) wide and 30 feet (9.1m) deep, compared to 2 feet (0.63m) wide and 22 feet (6.8m) deep for the Mk 41 and KVLS. This equates to the ability to launch much larger weapons with far greater internal volume.

One KVLS-II module spotted.

Last year, there was no KVLS-II, only KVLS-I and MK41.

KVLS-II is a very large VLS, a very unique system capable of launching powerful long-range strike missiles. https://t.co/gdIgdk5Wog pic.twitter.com/cif7y7r82a

— ハク Mason (@mason_8718) December 1, 2024

The KVLS-II will be able to accommodate larger anti-ship and land-attack cruise missiles. Beyond these, it’s planned that the KVLS-II will be used to deploy ballistic missiles.

South Korea’s very active ballistic missile development effort already includes a ship-to-surface ballistic missile program, with research and development work led by the Agency for Defense Development (ADD). According to reports, mass production of the new missile, compatible with the KVLS-II, is expected to begin in 2028 or 2029.

Already, there are a number of options for weapons that could be adapted to arm the KDX-III Batch 2 destroyers.

One possible candidate would be a surface-ship-launched version of South Korea’s submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), a weapon that has been test-launched from the ROKN’s Dosan Ahn Changho class diesel-electric attack submarine, as well as from a submerged barge, and from a ground test facility.

The submarine ROKS Dosan Ahn Changho during trials. Defense Acquisition Program Administration

Few details about South Korea’s SLBM have been made public, although the country’s media variously describes it as the Hyunmoo-4-4 or the K-SLBM. It reportedly has a range of 311 miles (500km) and is likely a naval variant of the ground-launched Hyunmoo-2B ballistic missile. For its sub-launched application, the SLBM uses the cold launch ejection method, again from VLS tubes.

A South Korean Hyunmoo-2 ballistic missile is launched during a joint South Korean/United States military exercise in 2017. US Army

As well as the SLBM program, South Korea’s ballistic missiles include a range of land-based weapons, too, with more under development. Seoul’s defense budget proposal for 2022-2026 refers to a new ballistic missile capable of carrying a warhead weighing up to three tons, compared to the two tons for the Hyunmoo 4 short-range ballistic missile (SRBM), and with a range of between 220 and 250 miles (350 and 400km). According to reports, this new missile would be tailored to destroy hardened underground sites, including North Korea’s nuclear storage facilities.

Fielding some kind of ballistic missile on its KDX-III Batch 2 destroyers certainly reflects broader priorities, as stated by the South Korean Ministry of Defense.

The country’s wider missile development plan calls for weapons “with significantly enhanced destructive power” as part of its response to North Korea’s growing missile capabilities. With North Korea’s expanding missile arsenal presenting particular risks to ground-based missiles in South Korea, ship-launched ballistic missiles — as well as even more survivable SLBMs — are seen as a very useful addition to Seoul’s armory.

An increased focus on ballistic missiles has almost certainly also been spurred by South Korea having stepped away from a series of restrictions on missile ranges that had been in place since 1979, under a bilateral agreement with the United States. Most recently, these put a range cap of 500 miles on South Korean missiles. Since U.S. President Joe Biden and South Korean President Moon Jae-in agreed to scrap these limits in 2021, South Korea is now able to develop ballistic missiles capable of reaching targets far beyond the Korean Peninsula.

President Joe Biden talks during a joint news conference with the then South Korean President Moon Jae-in, in Washington in May 2021. AP Photo/Alex Brandon

This means that ballistic missiles can potentially be developed for use against threats further afield, including China and Russia.

Furthermore, as TWZ has discussed in the past, there remains a possibility that Seoul may eventually seek to add nuclear warheads to its burgeoning ballistic missile force, although this seems a more remote possibility at this point.

In the case of the KDX-III Batch 2 destroyers, the inherent versatility of the KVLS-II system means that the available cells can be loaded with a mixture of weapons. These could include air defense missiles, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and potentially future hypersonic missiles. The KVLS, for its part, is also a highly versatile system, covering inner-zone air defense as well as anti-submarine warfare and land attack.

We all know that the South Korean military is crazy about firepower but nothing would show that the Korea is crazy about firepower as KVLS-II and its IV-2 Ship-Launched ballistic missile(and Hyunmoo-V).

The KVLS-II is designed to store large and devastating Korean strike missiles… pic.twitter.com/VaS1VEI8IS

— ハク Mason (@mason_8718) March 8, 2024

It should be noted that even without ballistic missiles, the KDX-III Batch 2 warships, and multiple other platforms — surface combatants, submarines, ground launchers, and aircraft — have the ability to launch cruise missiles against targets across North Korea.

Still, ballistic missiles continue to offer certain advantages, including superior speed of response and kinetic energy, and a larger warhead, as well as being much harder to defend against. In particular, a missile of this kind would be very well suited to attacking a hardened target at short notice, like decapitating regime command bunkers in the opening phase of a conflict. Increasingly, ballistic missiles are also being adapted as anti-ship weapons, as well, something that China has done, in VLS-compatible form, for its destroyers. At this stage, however, it’s not clear if South Korea also has an ASBM program.

More broadly, the KVLS-II is indicative of a broader trend toward outfitting warships with bigger vertical launch cells, to accommodate new kinds of weapons, including hypersonic missiles, which are typically larger than their subsonic brethren. The U.S. Navy is looking toward larger VLS cells beyond the Mk 41, with the Mk 57 being slightly larger, while the Zumwalt class is getting bigger cells for hypersonic weapons. America’s next generation destroyer will likely include some larger VLS cells, as well, and America’s future fast attack submarines are already being built with the ability to accommodate larger missiles if need be.

Whatever the long-term plan for arming South Korea’s KDX-III Batch 2 warships, once commissioned, these will be some of the most impressive destroyers in service anywhere in the world. At the core of its capabilities will be its extensive and varied vertical launch system cells, of which the KVLS-II brings the option of a very wide range of munitions — including ballistic missiles.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

twz.com · by Thomas Newdick

7. Opposition parties submit impeachment motion against Yoon after martial law turmoil

(LEAD) Opposition parties submit impeachment motion against Yoon after martial law turmoil | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Yi Wonju · December 4, 2024

(ATTN: ADDS details in last 3 paras, byline)

By Yi Wonju

SEOUL, Dec. 4 (Yonhap) -- Opposition parties submitted a motion to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol on Wednesday after Yoon's declaration of martial law was blocked by lawmakers.

The main opposition Democratic Party and five other minor opposition parties, including the Rebuilding Korea Party and Reform Party, submitted the motion to the bills office at the National Assembly at 2:43 p.m.

The impeachment motion was signed by 190 opposition lawmakers and one independent lawmaker, with no support from any ruling party lawmakers.

The opposition parties plan to report the motion to a parliamentary plenary session on Thursday and to put it up for a vote on Friday or Saturday.

By law, an impeachment motion must be put to a vote between 24 and 72 hours after the motion is reported to a plenary session.

Rep. Shin Chang-sik of the Rebuilding Korea Party said the parties have not decided yet whether to vote "right away" or at some other time "within 72 hours."

The impeachment motion requires a two-thirds majority to pass the parliament. Of the 300-member National Assembly, the opposition will need eight votes from the ruling People Power Party to pass the bill.

Lawmakers of the main opposition Democratic Party and other minor opposition parties submit a bill to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol to the bills office at the National Assembly in Seoul on Dec. 4, 2024. (Yonhap)

julesyi@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Yi Wonju · December 4, 2024

8. U.S. 'encouraged by resilience' of S. Korean democracy after martial law turmoil: top envoy

Good statement from Ambassador Goldberg. This is what we should focus on.

My view: the rule of law can be said to have prevailed and perhaps like Nietzsche, that which does not kill me (or kill democracy) makes me (or democracy) stronger.

(Yonhap Interview) U.S. 'encouraged by resilience' of S. Korean democracy after martial law turmoil: top envoy | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Seung-yeon · December 4, 2024

By Kim Seung-yeon

SEOUL, Dec. 4 (Yonhap) -- The United States is "encouraged by the resilience" South Korea has demonstrated through its democratic processes following the martial law declaration and its subsequent lifting, its top envoy to Seoul said Wednesday.

U.S. Ambassador Philip Goldberg made the remarks after South Korea faced hours of turmoil following President Yoon Suk Yeol's surprise martial law declaration late Tuesday, in which he accused the opposition of paralyzing the government with "anti-state" activities.

The martial law was lifted about six hours later, as the National Assembly voted to demand Yoon end it.

"It came as a surprise. I was awakened by the news shortly after the president's announcement ... we watched it like everyone else unfold," Goldberg said in an exclusive virtual interview with Yonhap News Agency.

"We were concerned about the events of last night. At the same time, we're encouraged by the resilience of Korean democracy. The United States supports that democracy and the people of Korea to resolve issues peacefully, democratically and constitutionally," Goldberg said.

"We believe and strongly support the democratic process here and the constitutional process," he added, reiterating the U.S. position that it was relieved when the martial law was lifted.

U.S. Ambassador to South Korea Philip Goldberg speaks during an exclusive virtual interview with Yonhap News Agency in Seoul, on Dec. 4, 2024. (Yonhap)

Addressing concerns over potential provocations by North Korea amid the confusion surrounding the martial law, Goldberg emphasized that the U.S. is "always on alert and prepared."

"We are always on alert. We are always prepared for any scenario ... any kind of issue that might arise," Goldberg said.

"Our commitment to the Republic of Korea, the alliance and the Korean people is unwavering and ironclad," he said.

The Republic of Korea (ROK) is South Korea's official name.

The overnight turmoil stoked worries that the recalcitrant North might take advantage of the situation and could take military actions to escalate tensions.

Goldberg said he was in contact with officials in his host country, as well as in Washington, throughout the period when the martial law was in effect, although he declined to reveal details of the discussions.

"I was in touch with Gen. Paul LaCamera, the commander of the U.S. Forces Korea and the South Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command ... my colleagues in Washington and with the Korean government at various levels," he said.

Goldberg stressed that the U.S. has also made its commitments to democratic practices in Korea very clear.

"Our support for that is the most important factor and that is well known to the government and to the elected representatives and the people of Korea," he said.

Goldberg took office as the U.S. ambassador to Seoul in July 2022 and will retire in January, marking the end of his final post in the foreign service.

As a career diplomat with more than 35 years of experience, Goldberg has served in various positions in countries such as Colombia, Cuba and the Philippines.

He has also served as the U.S. coordinator for the implementation of the 1817 U.N. Security Council sanctions resolution on North Korea.

elly@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Seung-yeon · December 4, 2024

9. Editorial: Why the delay? DPK's reluctance on spy law raises eyebrows (South Korea)

Spies are everywhere.

Excerpts:

The proposed change is straightforward: it would redefine espionage to include “foreign countries or equivalent entities” rather than limiting it to “enemy states.” This adjustment is not aimed at ordinary citizens who abide by the law, nor does it create plausible grounds for fears of abuse.

While South Korea’s past includes incidents of wrongful accusations under the espionage law, such cases are highly unlikely in today’s legal and political climate. Even the DPK would likely agree that safeguards have improved. The party’s hesitation may instead stem from its ties to China, given the longstanding connections between DPK figures and the Chinese Communist Party. Such exchanges are not inherently problematic when conducted transparently and within the bounds of law.

Editorial: Why the delay? DPK's reluctance on spy law raises eyebrows

https://www.chosun.com/english/opinion-en/2024/12/04/ZCWC2WRGJJCFRLJL4QOWBSNM6Q/

By The Chosunilbo

Published 2024.12.04. 08:38

The future of an amendment to South Korea’s espionage law, which would broaden its scope from targeting “enemy states” to include “foreign countries,” remains uncertain as the year draws to a close. Concerns within the opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) over potential misuse of the law have delayed its progress. Although the amendment passed a parliamentary subcommittee on Nov. 13, it has yet to be presented to the Legislation and Judiciary Committee or a plenary session. While the DPK claims it does not oppose the revision in principle, it has not provided a timeline for addressing the matter.

A bill to expand the scope of espionage charges from targeting "enemy states" to include "foreign countries" passed a subcommittee of the National Assembly's Legislation and Judiciary Committee on Nov. 13, 2024. The photo shows a meeting of the committee's budget subcommittee on Nov. 7./Yonhap News

Espionage is a constant in global affairs, and the current climate is no exception. Britain’s intelligence chief recently warned of “staggeringly reckless” Russian operations targeting Western countries supporting Ukraine. Meanwhile, the FBI in the United States reportedly opens a new China-related espionage investigation every 10 to 12 hours. In this volatile environment, South Korea—surrounded by North Korea, China, and Russia—finds itself without adequate legal tools to prosecute foreign spies.

The amendment gained momentum after revelations in August that a Korea Defense Intelligence Command employee, recruited by Chinese operatives, leaked classified information. At the time, the DPK urged the ruling People Power Party (PPP) to expedite the law’s revision. However, the party’s tone appears to have shifted, raising questions about its resolve.

The proposed change is straightforward: it would redefine espionage to include “foreign countries or equivalent entities” rather than limiting it to “enemy states.” This adjustment is not aimed at ordinary citizens who abide by the law, nor does it create plausible grounds for fears of abuse.

While South Korea’s past includes incidents of wrongful accusations under the espionage law, such cases are highly unlikely in today’s legal and political climate. Even the DPK would likely agree that safeguards have improved. The party’s hesitation may instead stem from its ties to China, given the longstanding connections between DPK figures and the Chinese Communist Party. Such exchanges are not inherently problematic when conducted transparently and within the bounds of law.

What the amendment seeks to prevent is the transfer of state or industrial secrets to foreign entities. Such actions clearly constitute espionage. The DPK must ensure its concerns about potential misuse are not masking other motives, such as protecting individuals or groups whose activities might fall under the revised law. Blocking this amendment for such reasons would undermine South Korea’s national security and erode public trust in the party’s commitment to safeguarding the country’s interests.

10. What has happened in South Korea and what does martial law have to do with it?

What has happened in South Korea and what does martial law have to do with it?

https://www.cnn.com/2024/12/03/asia/south-korea-martial-law-explainer-intl-hnk/index.html

By Jessie Yeung, CNN

7 minute read

Updated 6:19 AM EST, Wed December 4, 2024

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'Stunning development': CNN reporter breaks down decision to lift martial law

03:53 - Source: CNN

Seoul, South KoreaCNN —

South Korea is reeling after a whiplash six hours during which the country’s embattled president declared martial law but was forced to lift it amid widespread condemnation, throwing the country’s political landscape into chaos and uncertainty.

The saga began unfolding Tuesday night as most South Koreans prepared to go to sleep – prompting furious lawmakers to force their way past soldiers into parliament to strike down the decree, as protesters demanded President Yoon Suk Yeol’s removal and no return to the country’s painful authoritarian past.

By dawn, the president had caved – agreeing to lift martial law. But experts say he’s dug a political grave; opposition parties are already moving to introduce impeachment measures.

Questions are still swirling around the future of Yoon’s presidency, his party’s rule, and what happens next in one of the world’s most important economies and a major United States ally.

Here’s what we know.

What happened? What is martial law?

Yoon declared martial law around 10:30 p.m. local time Tuesday in an unannounced late-night TV address, accusing the country’s main opposition party of sympathizing with North Korea and of “anti-state” activities.

He also cited a motion by the opposition Democratic Party, which has a majority in parliament, to impeach top prosecutors and reject a government budget proposal.

Martial law refers to granting the military temporary rule during an emergency, which the president has the constitutional ability to declare. But the announcement hit like a bombshell, sending shock waves through a democratic nation and sparking an astonishing late-night political showdown.

In a nation with a strong contemporary tradition of free speech, Yoon’s military decree banned all political activities, including protests, rallies, and actions by political parties, according to Yonhap news agency. It also prohibited “denying free democracy or attempting a subversion,” and “manipulating public opinion.”

In the end, the decree only lasted a few hours.

People gathered in front of the National Assembly in the early hours of December 4 in Seoul, South Korea, after President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law. Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images

Lawmakers flocked to the parliament, pushing their way past soldiers who had been deployed to keep the building blocked off.

In an extraordinary emergency late-night meeting, those present voted unanimously to block the decree, a vote the president is legally bound to obey.

The country’s political blocs came together to oppose Yoon’s decree – including members of his own party, with the party chief apologizing to the public and demanding an explanation from the president.

By 4:30 a.m., Yoon announced he would comply and lift the martial law order, saying he had withdrawn the troops deployed earlier in the night. But he doubled down on accusations that the opposition party was frustrating the moves of his government, urging lawmakers to stop their “legislative manipulation.”

Yoon’s cabinet voted to lift the decree soon after.

Political paralysis

South Korea has been in a bitter political stalemate for months, with the country’s liberal opposition parties winning a parliamentary majority in April. The election was widely seen as a referendum on Yoon, whose popularity has plummeted due to a number of scandals and controversies since he took office in 2022.

Yoon, a conservative, has clashed with the opposition on many of his policies that require legislation, preventing him from moving forward on campaign promises to cut taxes and ease business regulations.

He has also grown increasingly frustrated with the opposition’s efforts to impeach government figures, some of whom he’d appointed – including the chair of the broadcasting watchdog, the chair of the state auditor, and several top prosecutors, according to Yonhap.

The prosecutors in particular are a sore point for Yoon. Opposition lawmakers argue they failed to indict Yoon’s wife, the first lady – who has been embroiled in scandal and accusations of stock manipulation, which the presidential office has repeatedly denied.

What was the response?

Outrage, shock and confusion ran through the country – and the world – in the immediate aftermath of the decree.

Late Tuesday night, residents in the capital Seoul rushed to be with their family members, while others gathered in front of the parliament building, where law enforcement told some they could be arrested without warrants.

Many protesters carried signs and flags calling for Yoon’s impeachment.

Some members of parliament appeared to clash with authorities outside the parliament building, with television footage showing troops attempting to enter the main hall – though they began withdrawing a few hours later when lawmakers blocked the decree.

South Korean protesters holding a banner that reads "We condemn Yoon Suk Yeol's illegal martial law" during a rally at Gwanghwamun Square in Seoul on December 4. Jung Yeon-Je/AFP/Getty Images

What does it mean for the US?

The US voiced “grave concern” after Yoon declared martial law, and expressed relief after he lifted the decree – saying democracy was at the core of the US-South Korea alliance.

The two countries have a decades-old mutual defense treaty, which means both must come to the aid of the other if they are ever attacked.

There are nearly 30,000 American troops stationed in South Korea, across key US military installations – including Camp Humphreys, the largest US military base overseas.

Alongside Japan and the Philippines, which also have mutual defense treaties with the US, South Korea is part of a trio of regional partners that have helped to bolster American power in both Asia and the Pacific for decades.

Advocates argue that a significant US troop presence in the Korean Peninsula is crucial to deterring any potential attack from North Korea as Kim Jong Un’s regime continues to build its nuclear arsenal, and as a way of bolstering the US presence in the region to counter China’s aggression.

North Korea has also become a key player in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by sending troops to help fight for Moscow’s forces, bringing an isolated Asian power into Europe’s largest conflict since the Second World War.

What happens now?

Much remains uncertain – including what will happen to the president and other top leaders.

Six opposition parties submitted a bill to the legislature on Wednesday calling for Yoon’s impeachment, Yonhap reported. The bill is expected to be reported to a plenary session on Thursday, with voting set for Friday or Saturday.

Earlier Wednesday, the main opposition party – one of the six behind the bill – warned it would start impeachment proceedings if Yoon didn’t step down immediately, and said it planned to file treason charges against him.

If approved by at least two thirds of parliament, the impeachment motion would go to the Constitutional Court – one of the country’s highest courts – where at least six justices have to agree to go ahead with the impeachment. During this time, the president would be suspended from exercising his power.

Yoon’s chief of staff and more than 10 senior secretaries to the president have submitted their resignations, according to the president’s office. The chief of Yoon’s own party has also called for the removal of the defense minister for recommending martial law.

This isn’t the first time Yoon has faced calls for impeachment – with regular protests calling for his resignation, and a petition that received hundreds of thousands of signatures, Reuters reported.

South Korea’s largest umbrella union also said on Wednesday its members would go on an indefinite general strike until Yoon resigns.

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Analyst says South Korean president made one of the ‘great political errors’

01:31 - Source: CNN

Is this unusual for South Korea?

Yes – especially given the country’s long, painful crawl toward democracy after decades of authoritarian rule.

South Korea has been a vibrant democracy since the 1980s, with regular protests, free speech, fair elections and peaceful transfers of power. The domestic political scene has long been fractious, with presidents on both sides of the political divide often facing prosecutions while in and out of office.

Martial law is unheard of in the modern democratic era, which has seen South Korea become a major exporter and a cultural powerhouse, thanks in part to the huge global popularity of K-pop and K-drama.

But South Korea has a dark political past. Throughout much of the Cold War, the country went through a series of strongman leaders and military rulers, who declared martial law multiple times – sometimes in a bid to hold onto power amid growing public dissatisfaction.

At the time, protests could easily turn deadly, with the military deployed to crack down on those pushing back.

The last time a South Korean president declared martial law was in 1980, during a nationwide uprising led by students and labor unions. It wasn’t until 1988 that South Korea elected a president through free and direct elections.

That’s why protesters Tuesday and Wednesday held signs and chanted slogans vowing to never go back to dictatorial rule, the memory of which remains fresh in many people’s minds.

Correction: This article has been updated to finesse the length of the overnight political brinkmanship.

11. Risk of North Korea's miscalculation rises after South's martial law declaration

Risk of North Korea's miscalculation rises after South's martial law declaration

December 03, 2024 6:42 PM

By Young Gyo Kim

voanews.com · December 3, 2024

WASHINGTON —

U.S. analysts are warning against a possible provocation by Pyongyang after a short-lived declaration of martial law on Tuesday threw South Korea into political turmoil.

"There's potential for miscalculation on North Korea's part," said Sydney Seiler, who until last year was the national intelligence officer for North Korea on the U.S. National Intelligence Council, in a phone interview with VOA Korean.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol imposed emergency martial law on his unsuspecting country in a televised address Tuesday evening, saying it was aimed at "eradicating pro-North Korean forces and to protect the constitutional order of freedom."

Surprising move

Under the decree, all political activities, including rallies and demonstrations, were prohibited, while all media became subject to the control of the martial law command.

Soon after Yoon's declaration, a majority of South Korean lawmakers voted to demand the lifting of martial law. Yoon, who was legally obligated to comply with the vote, did so less than six hours after his original declaration.

Lawmakers sit inside the hall at the National Assembly, after South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law, in Seoul, South Korea, Dec. 4, 2024.

Seiler said that could leave Yoon looking weak to the North Koreans, who might decide this is "a great time to take advantage of this weakness to deal another blow to him through some type of provocation."

Seiler added that one of Kim Jong Un's primary goals is to undermine the U.S.-South Korea relationship and that Kim "may see President [Yoon]'s actions as straining that relationship."

David Maxwell, vice president of the Center for Asia Pacific Strategy, agreed that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may try to exploit the situation.

"If Yoon is correct and there are North Korean sympathizers in South Korea, we can expect them to incite violence," Maxwell told VOA Korean via email.

Maxwell worried that this could lead South Korean law enforcement agencies to "inappropriately use force that could cause escalation."

Risk of miscalculation

Robert Rapson, who served as charge d'affaires and deputy chief of mission at the U.S. Embassy in Seoul from 2018 to 2021, told VOA Korean via email Tuesday that the U.S. should deliver a "stern warning" to adversaries such as North Korea against trying to take advantage of the situation.

Pyongyang should be reminded that "our ironclad alliance and commitment to defend remains fully in effect," he said.

The United States reaffirmed it will continue to stand by South Korea, a major ally in the Indo-Pacific region, a few hours after Yoon's declaration.

A National Security Council spokesperson told VOA that the Biden administration is "in contact with the [South Korean] government and is monitoring the situation closely as we work to learn more."

People gather to demand South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol step down, in front of the National Assembly in Seoul, South Korea, Dec. 4, 2024.

The spokesperson added that the U.S. was not notified in advance of Yoon's plans.

"We are seriously concerned by the developments we are seeing on the ground in the ROK," the spokesperson said. ROK is an abbreviation for Republic of Korea, the official name of South Korea.

Kurt Campbell, deputy secretary of state, told reporters at a Washington event previewing Japan's 2025 Osaka Expo: "I do want to underscore that our alliance with the ROK is ironclad, and we stand by Korea in their time of uncertainty."

"We're watching the recent developments in the ROK with grave concern," Campbell said. "We're seeking to engage our ROK counterparts at every level both here and in Seoul."

Campbell stressed that the U.S. has "every hope and expectation that any political disputes will be resolved peacefully and in accordance with the rule of law."

Yoon has long been suffering from low approval ratings. Last week, his approval slid to 25% after rising for three consecutive weeks, according to a survey.

Meanwhile, the ruling party and the opposition party have been in deadlock for weeks over the government budget bill for 2025.

As of 4:22 a.m. Tuesday, South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said, "so far, there was no abnormal move detected from North Korea," stressing that Seoul's military readiness against North Korea is intact.

Sangjin Cho contributed to this report.

voanews.com · December 3, 2024

12. Crisis in South Korea, Catching Many by Surprise, Marks Country's Most Dangerous Confrontation in Decades

Crisis in South Korea, Catching Many by Surprise, Marks Country's Most Dangerous Confrontation in Decades

Soldiers surrounding the national assembly are withdrawn as helicopters clatter overhead and President Yoon wheels on opposition.

DONALD KIRK

Published: Dec. 3, 2024 02:27 PM ETUpdated: Dec. 3, 2024 04:11 PM ET

nysun.com

UPDATED AT 4:11 P.M. EDT

South Korea on Tuesday was facing its worst confrontation of right and left political forces in decades — with the president declaring martial law and his foes vowing to defy him. The conservative president, Yoon Seok-yul, has the power to order his forces onto the streets against the leftist-led politicians who dominate the national assembly and the labor unions.

Then, as surprisingly as he declared martial law, Mr. Yoon early Wednesday, Seoul time, suddenly withdrew his decree.

“I declared emergency martial law with my resolute intent to save the nation in the face of anti-state forces that attempt to paralyze the nation’s essential function and the constitutional order of free democracy,” Seoul’s Yonhap News quoted him as saying. “But there was a demand from the National Assembly for the lifting of martial law, [I] have withdrawn troops mobilized to execute martial law affairs.”

At one point Tuesday, soldiers reportedly surrounded the assembly. They have, though, withdrawn. The showdown erupted after Mr. Yoon, who is suffering from low ratings in political polling, declared martial law, the first time a president has resorted to that since the assassination of the president, Park Chung-hee, in 1979.

The crisis caught many analysts in Korea by complete surprise. It comes at a moment of political transition in America, with President-elect Trump assembling a foreign policy team that, it is clear, is going to be sorely tested in the coming weeks and months. Mr. Yoon is trying hard to get in Trump’s good graces. He’s said he’s practicing golf in hopes of meeting the president-elect on the golf course as well as at the Oval Office.

Mr. Yoon is not saying so, but he may have been motivated to declare martial law in anticipation of Trump’s presidency. One big concern is whether Trump will want to cut down the number of American GIs in South Korea — now about 28,500, many of them headquartered at America’s biggest overseas base, Camp Humphreys, 40 miles south of Seoul.

Mr. Yoon, frustrated by politicians who refused to yield to his budget requests and sought to impeach senior officials — including the man in charge of his budget and his chief prosecutor — decided, without warning, that now was the time to act. A retired American Army colonel and analyst on Korea, David Maxwell, told the Sun Mr. Yoon’s “lowest approval rating counterintuitively gives him the opportunity to act.”

Meaning that Mr. Yoon may have figured he had “nothing to lose but with the hope that it will eradicate the radical left.” A veteran of five tours in South Korea with American special forces, Mr. Maxwell noted the decision was fraught with danger — including “miscalculation and misunderstanding by security forces who could interpret protests incorrectly and inappropriately use force that could cause escalation.”

Mr. Yoon, though, saw a far worse danger in intractable leftist-led obstructionism, which he described on Korean television as “anti-state activities.” His order establishing martial law reflected the suspicion that Communist Chinese agents and saboteurs have infiltrated Korean society, from the biggest conglomerates to the biggest labor unions, some controlled by leftist zealots, many of whom have never worked for a factory.

Mr. Yoon, despite his low ratings in the polls, sought to appeal to this widespread view, saying martial law was “aimed at eradicating pro-North Korean forces and to protect the constitutional order of freedom.” As reported by the South’s Yonhap News, he promised to “eliminate anti-state forces as quickly as possible and normalize the country.”

Might he, though, have overplayed his hand, which includes the power of the Korean president over the armed forces? Mr. Maxwell said there was always the danger that this could “destroy” the Republic of Korea’s conservative movement “by delegitimizing it and ensure a win by the opposition in the next election.”

“How will Kim Jong-un exploit this?” Mr. Maxwell asked.

The opposition Minju, or Democratic Party, holding a decisive majority over Mr. Yoon’s People Power Party, at once maneuvered to pass a bill nullifying martial law, but soldiers and police blocked the entrance to the assembly.

Protesters with signs declaring “No Martial Law” surged around the gates to the park surrounding the assembly, and many more were expected to descend on central Seoul, the scene of a massive outpouring that led in 2017 to the ouster, jailing, and impeachment of the South Korean president, Park Geun-hye, daughter of Park Chung-hee.

Mr. Yoon, hoping to forestall a similar outpouring, is ordering tens of thousands of police and soldiers into the downtown area, the scene of enormous demonstrations periodically over the years.

The country is now tensed for episodes of violence even as South Korea confronts North Korea, whose leader, Kim Jong-un, has formed an alliance with Russia’s president and is sending arms and men to support the Russians in Ukraine.

The declaration of martial law was not expected. “I was completely shocked,” a Korean woman told the Sun via phone from Seoul. “Nobody imagined anything like it.”

Although Korean leftists and liberals may appear bent on opposing martial law, they are not as popular as some might believe. “The Chinese are trying to take over the country,” a commentator who goes by the name “Dr. Kim” said in a podcast. “Many members of the assembly are pro-North,” meaning that they are sympathetic with Mr. Kim’s shockingly dictatorial regime.

nysun.com

13. Oh, Seoul! Koreans meet a challenge

Excellent points from my friend and mentor Dr. (Professor Emeritus) Cynthis Watson.

I think we are in agreement. Again, my view:

The rule of law can be said to have prevailed and perhaps like Nietzsche, that which does not kill me (or kill democracy) makes me (or democracy) stronger.

Actions create consequences

Oh, Seoul!

Koreans meet a challenge

https://substack.com/home/post/p-152522053?utm

Cynthia Watson

Dec 03, 2024

As you’ve read more than once in Actions create Consequences, geopolitical events unfold unpredictably and straight-lining outcomes is a fool’s errand. Today’s prize winner is South Korean Yoon Suk Yeol who acted in way I have yet to hear anyone admit to predicting: he invoked martial law for the first time since 1979 in the thriving democracy on the southern half of the Korean peninsula.

For context, Yoon is a conservative who suffered a crushing rebuke by South Koreans in parliamentary elections eight months ago. Causes for massive electoral slaps are usually many: perhaps for domestic reasons such as not handling several domestic crisis but Yoon developed troubling tendencies to promote authoritarian views over Korean democracy. His actions to limit media freedoms and the act unilaterally on many topics raised the hackles not only of more liberal members of the political caste but also of average Koreans.

He also suffered damange from participating in 2023 tripartite talks at Camp David with President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to strengthen anti-Chinese solidarity in northeast Asia. China is the Republic of Korea’s premier trading partner but the primary supporter for the menacing North Korean regime in Pyongyang. No formal end to the Korean War of 1950-53 exists, meaning that Pyongyang represents a constant and nuclearized existential threat against the South. Indeed, Americans forget that Seoul’s 14 million residents are constantly within artillery range from the North. But not all Koreans seek to make China into an enemy which created some problems for Yoon.

But it was his embrace of Japan that undermined popular support. Korea and Japan have clashed in the modern era after Tokyo colonized Korea beginning in 1910, then subjected Korean women to the horrible treatment of “comfort women” for Japanese troops during World War II. Japanese rightists invariably refuse to apologize sincerely for these behaviors, leaving Koreans furious and dubious about any long-term trust across the Strait of Tsushima. Yoon’s positions too often appeared apologetic for Japan. This sense of disbelief on the part of many Koreans only further undermined a leader accruing doubts about his priorities.

News blasts indicate he cited “anti-government activities” this morning to seize control of government, to suspend all political activities in the ROK, control the media, and order the military and police to impose control over society. Yoon expected and got loyalty from the Army to back his position that he should govern alone rather than with a representative legislature ended as a co-equal branch of government.

Except the Legislature refused. Voting 198-0, South Korean legislators rejected the imposition of Executive power to the exclusion of other branches. It was a stunning and courageous unanimous response because the Armed Forces had stated its intention to follow the orders delivered from the Blue House, the seat of presidential power. Citizens left home to congregate outside the legislature to show their support for democracy. The military took some steps at crowd control but violence was averted.

Within a couple of hours, the coup in Korea failed. Yoon appears highly unlikely to finish his term as his popularity was barely out of single digits before today began; now he is humiliated, defeated, and alone.

Why does this matter? It failed so it’s no big deal, right?

Democracies feed off each other as authoritarianism proliferate together. Part of the impetus towards unanimous opposition to this brazen and desperate act for political survival was South Koreans understanding the world watched their actions. The world wondered whether their nation’s commitment to the rule of law (and upholding a democratic constitution is indeed the ultimate indication of the functioning rule of law) was real or merely a fiction.

South Korea’s early governments were single-man, military rule masquerading as elected officials. Repressive actions against civilians led to deadly incidents such as the Gwangju Incident of 1980 when students died protesting the new government imposed after a 1979 coup. Some in the United States and on the peninsula argued Korea needed strongmen in uniform following the Korean War much as many preferred Chaing Kai-shek’s dictatorial rule in Taiwan at the same time. Both South Korea and Taiwan faced profound dangers from former compatriots-turned-communists so perhaps tolerating hardline rule in the Cold War was less hard to accept.

But both Taiwan and Korea embraced democratic rule by 1990. Korea’s democratic journey was one driven by the Koreans themselves rather than external voices. We have never wavered in supporting the ROK since the June 1950 when the DPRK crossed the 38th Parallel: thousands of U.S. troops remain as a “trip wire” to deter Kim Jong Un from repeating his grandfather’s aggression. While support for military governments became tougher in the 1980s as clamoring rose for participatory governance, Yanks were never going to foresake the bilateral alliance.

Koreans demanded democracy in repeated, public outcries. By 1988, synonymous with the Seoul Olympic display, South Koreans got their wish for a participatory, elected government.

As forty plus years of democracy grew ever stronger, despite corruption and various scandals rocking several individual administrations, U.S. ties with Korea became firmer because they were wider than merely between militaries. We no longer focused on the ROK as a state needing our protection as much as a trading partner, as a partner in protecting freedom of navigation in East Asia, as a reliable supporter in many of the international fora where rule-of-law societies tend to band together on the same side of issues. In short, democracy in Korea facilitated far deeper ties between our countries than one might have expected when the first steps to abandon military rule came about in the late 1980s. In short, Korea represents a success in the evolution we have preached regarding security, relatively free market economics, and the resulting shared vision for an endstate of respectful engagement.

Today’s coup attempt was one of desperation, a throw back to another era where a weakened political figure sought to find a path to imposing his will rather than relying on the voice of the people by whom he won election two years ago. Democracy is a participatory sport and a constant back and forth between the governing and the governed; authoritarianism is the hallmark of those fearing loss of power, those whose case is not plausible to the electorate and those who know they cannot win in an open process.

It’s seductive for anyone feeling she or he is losing support to argue it’s foreigners or its murky forces who must “not be like us”. Yoon tried that approach only to confront what will become ostracism within his own society. Korea is far from a perfect democracy, often plagued with financial sweet deals, but the people—the demos in democracy—have thirty-five years’ expectations of how government works for and with them, rather than at them. Late Tuesday afternoon Washington, D.C. time, Yoon says he will reverse his martial law proclamation but the Korean legislators with the support of those thousands who immediately assembled outside the legislature made that decision hours earlier on behalf of the nation. It was a heartwarming reminder of government of the people, for the people, and by the people.

The ROK military played a fascinating part in this abbreviated play. From press reports, it seems they took President Yoon’s order as a lawful mandate to impose martial law, as he sought. Yet when the legislature voted to rescind his action, the military did not impose itself as an armed arbitrator, instead allowing the civilian institutions to carry out their parts in the drama. Other militaries—the Thais come to mind but they are far from unique—leap to assure an outcome best for the armed forces as an institution. Not to be pollyannish and we are still only a few hours from this entire spectacle begining and (seemingly) ending, but the ROK military appears to have ultimately followed the will of the people it defends. This is not an insignificant action on the part of a military born as the central player in the nation’s history for its first forty years’ existence.

The world watched, if they weren’t absorbed in the other half a dozen dramas playing out across the globe this first week in December 2024, but it was the attention of the Koreans themselves that turned the tide. Ben Franklin is supposed to have observed , upon exiting the Philadelphia Constitutional Convention in 1787, that we “have a republic, if [you] can keep it”. Koreans decided to keep theirs, thus far. What is less certain is whether other nations would do the same thing when their weak autocrats

demand the right to impose personal will over the country. And there are plenty of those weak women and men ready to leap to the same martial law status because they think they can. I wonder if the Korean case today will have any linger messages for others?

I welcome your rebuttals, questions, comments, or observations. The keen observer of all things Korean, COL Dave Maxwell, USA retired, is a subscriber to this column so he may well offer thoughts to say I am completely wrong; if he weighs in, I will post Dave’s comments for all. But I welcome comments from any of you and I am happy to have you circulate this column if you find it of value. Thanks so much to the subscribers, like Dave Maxwell, who put resources up to support me. Have you considered becoming a subscriber for 2025?

I did not get a picture this morning so I will offer one of my perennial favorites since it’s too cold in much of this country for this particular scene. The mandevillas bit the dust yesterday morning with the cold but we can savor the shot, can’t we?

Be well and be safe. FIN

Fran Lawther, Anna Betts, Richard Luscombe, Yohannes Lowe, and Kirsty McEwen, “South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol says he will lift martial law hours after imposing it”, The Guardian.com, 3 Decemeber 2024, retrieved at https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/dec/03/south-korea-declares-emergency-martial-law-yoon-suk-yeol-north-korea-latest-updates

14. South Korea’s president lifts martial law hours after declaring it

South Korea’s president lifts martial law hours after declaring it

The order was voted down at the National Assembly as citizens protested outside.

https://www.rfa.org/english/korea/2024/12/03/south-korea-martial-law-yoon-north-threat/

By Eugene Whong for RFA

2024.12.03

South Korean President Yoon’s move sent shockwaves through South Korea, which has been considered a democracy since the 1980s. (RFA)

UPDATED on Dec. 3, 2024 at 10:00 p.m.

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol ended martial law, just hours after he declared it to counter “threats from North Korea” and “anti-state activities” by the domestic political opposition.

According to Yoon’s declaration, martial law would begin at 11 p.m. Tuesday, but the National Assembly voted to lift the decree nearly three hours later as protesters rallied outside.

After Yoon’s own party urged him to lift martial law, he announced he would do so early Wednesday, and a meeting of his Cabinet made it official.

“I declare emergency martial law to defend the free Republic of Korea from the threats of North Korean communist forces and to eradicate the shameless pro-North Korean anti-state forces that are plundering the freedom and happiness of our people, and to protect the free constitutional order,” Yoon said in a news conference Tuesday night.

Yoon, who represents the conservative People Power Party, did not mention any specific threat from Pyongyang, and the declaration of martial law was seen by some as a reaction to domestic political tension and conflict.

Opposition lawmakers called on Wednesday for Yoon’s impeachment over his decision to declare martial law for the first time in South Korea since 1980. Under South Korea’s constitution, power can be consolidated around the executive branch if the president declares martial law, but any such declaration can also be voted down by the National Assembly, which the opposition Democratic Party controls.

After Yoon’s declaration, protesters gathered outside the National Assembly building in Seoul, chanting for lawmakers to end the state of martial law -- which they eventually did with 190 of the assembly’s 300 members present.

Opposition leaders had vowed that they would remain on the premises until the president officially rescinds his declaration.

Reuters reported at 4:30 a.m. on Wednesday that Yoon announced he would lift martial law, and moments later jubilant protesters outside the assembly declared victory.

Political frustration

“Everybody is flabbergasted,” Kenneth Choi, the international editor for the The Chosun Daily newspaper said in an interview with CNN. “It’s absolutely stunning.”

“He is frustrated because the opposition party, which controls about two-thirds of the parliament, has impeached like 18 of his Cabinet ministers,” Choi said of Yoon. “And then the opposition party cut down almost US$4 billion in the government budget. So he believes that the opposition party is trying to shut his government down.”

A coalition of lawmakers from opposition parties said they planned to propose a bill to impeach Yoon on Wednesday, which should be voted within 72 hours, the Reuters news agency reported.

“The parliament should focus on immediately suspending the president’s business to pass an impeachment bill soonest,” Hwang Un-ha, one of MPs in the coalition, told reporters.

US reaction

The United States said on Tuesday it was watching events “with grave concern” and was seeking to engage with South Korean officials at every level in Washington and Seoul.

“We have every hope and expectation that any political disputes will be resolved peacefully and in accordance with the rule of law,” the second-ranking U.S. diplomat, Kurt Campbell, told reporters in Washington.

The U.S. embassy urged U.S. citizens in South Korea to avoid areas where protests were taking place, while some major employers including Naver Corp and LG Electronics Inc advised employees to work from home, Reuters reported.

A spokesperson for the U.S. National Security Council told RFA that the U.S. was not notified in advance of Yoon’s announcement.

“We are seriously concerned by the developments we are seeing on the ground in the ROK,” the spokesperson said, referring to South Korea.

David Maxwell, vice president of the Washington-based Center for Asia Pacific Strategy told RFA that Yoon, who faces a very low approval ratings, has nothing to lose, and may have been hoping that the move could hurt the opposition party.

He said Yoon may have felt the timing was right for such a bold move.

Yoon is “likely to receive little or no condemnation from the incoming Trump administration as much as there may be from Biden or would be if Harris had won,“ said Maxwell, adding that a large scale labor union protest was set to begin in South Korea on Wednesday.

He acknowledged that there were risks though, saying that under martial law, South Korean forces might accidentally use inappropriate levels of force in response to protests, the declaration could damage the reputation of conservative politicians, and that North Korea could find ways to exploit the situation.

Yoon’s declaration of martial law drew condemnation from his political opponents.

Lee Jae-myung, who narrowly lost the 2022 presidential election to Yoon and is the leader of the Democratic Party, said that the military should not rule South Korea.

“President Yoon’s illegal declaration of emergency martial law is null and void,” said Lee.

Han Dong-hoon, the leader of Yoon’s own People Power Party and South Korea’s justice minister until last year, said on Facebook that the “martial law declaration was wrong,” and that he would work alongside the people to stop it.

Additional reporting by Jamin Anderson for RFA Korean. Edited by Malcolm Foster.

Update adds opposition call for impeachment.

15. South Korea Political Tumult Could Sour Appetite for Korean Assets

Possible economic impacts.

The turmoil could have some longer-term repercussions on how investors view South Korea

https://www.wsj.com/finance/south-korea-political-tumult-could-sour-appetite-for-korean-assets-eac685e1?mod=latest_headlines

By Fabiana Negrin Ochoa

Dec. 3, 2024 9:10 pm ET

President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law late Tuesday night, but had to walk that back hours later. Photo: jung yeon-je/Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

The unexpected declaration of martial law in South Korea has rattled markets, sending the won and equities lower. While the measure was promptly struck down by parliament, the episode is likely to leave a bad taste in investors’ mouths.

President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law late Tuesday night, claiming that political opponents had made the country vulnerable to North Korea, but had to walk that back hours later as lawmakers voted down the measure early on Wednesday morning.

The won weakened sharply on the news, dropping around 3% against the dollar overnight. It has since clawed back some ground, sitting at 1,415.60 won against the dollar versus 1,402.90 won at the close of Seoul onshore trading on Tuesday.

South Korea’s benchmark Kospi index fell 1.6% to 2460.16 in early trade on Wednesday, with foreign investors as net sellers. Steel and financial shares were among the top decliners in the broad selloff, with Posco Holdings sliding over 3% early in the session. Korea Gas 036460 -18.75%decrease; red down pointing triangle was down 16% while share of Nexteel were 12% lower.

“Martial law has been lifted, but as the aftermath of legal controversies is expected to be significant, there is a risk that customers’ funds will flow out of stocks and funds, and the stock market is expected to inevitably undergo short-term adjustments due to uncertainty,” Hana Securities said in a commentary.

The main opposition party has called for President Yoon’s resignation, threatening impeachment if he refuses, OCBC’s Global Markets Research team said. In response to the won’s tumble, South Korean financial regulators have pledged liquidity support, and markets are closely monitoring an emergency meeting scheduled for later in the day, they said in a comment.

Market nerves have been soothed a little but the tumult raises uncomfortable questions around the political risk premium on Korean assets, said Vishnu Varathan, head of macro research Asia ex-Japan at Mizuho Securities.

“We’re not going to get a complete restitution of the fundamentals—the risk premium isn’t going to go away,” he said.

The short-lived declaration of martial law is expected to ratchet up political tensions near term, said analysts at BMI, a Fitch Solutions company. The move is highly unusual in a well-established democracy in peacetime, and will further erode the popularity of Yoon, whose approval rating had already slid to 19%-25% before the announcement, they said in a note. New questions will likely emerge about his judgment, and calls for him to resign or be removed could grow louder, BMI said.

Another question is whether large-scale protests will emerge in Seoul and other major cities, BMI said. “Any incidents of violence would likely raise great concerns among South Korea’s democratic allies, especially the U.S. and Japan, with which it has deepening military ties,” it added. Outgoing U.S. President Biden’s leverage is likely limited as he has little time left in office, while Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is in a weak position domestically, BMI said.

The turmoil could have some longer-term repercussions on how investors view South Korea.

South Korea, home to some of the world’s most advanced chip makers, has been in a sweet spot due to the semiconductor cycle upturn, but foreign investors’ interest in Korean assets has been tempered somewhat by a confluence of factors, Varathan said.

Part of this is because Korea lags behind Taiwan in the artificial intelligence push, he said. That’s been somewhat disappointing to investors.

Another is regulations like the U.S. Chips Act, a bid to bolster the U.S.’s semiconductor manufacturing capacity and cut reliance on China. That has put Korea in a tricky spot as a supplier of upstream goods—such as equipment related to chip manufacturing—to China, Varathan said. Concerns about corporate governance have also played a role.

That has led to chronically lower book to price valuations for Korean assets, and impeded foreign interest in the equities market, keeping like-for-like valuations low compared with its peers, he said.

Officials have been making efforts to counter that, including capital market reforms to expand global investment into the local government bond market, which led to Korean being included in the FTSE Russell World Government Bond Index.

But the martial law declaration will now make it harder to shake off the so-called “Korea discount,” Varathan said. “There’s a risk of this being a one step forward two steps back situation.”

It’s a setback that’s going to raise doubts on multiple fronts, he expects, such as if fiscal consolidation will be delayed and what the impact will be on the Bank of Korea.

“We already had surprise rate cut [in October],” and now policymakers will be facing a tougher balancing act between providing stimulus for the economy and maintaining stability, particularly as the won wavers, he said.

Externally, the context of president-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House may complicate things further, he said.

Uncertainty around what tariffs the U.S. might impose is a big overhang for export-reliant economies like South Korea.

“None of this augurs well for Korean assets.”

For now, the worst has been averted due to the fact that the martial law declaration was so promptly rejected, “but there’s a lot of dust out there that needs to settle,” he said. “There’s a chance that Korean assets could underperform in the coming months until there’s clarity on the domestic front and Trump 2.0.”

—Kwanwoo Jun, Kimberley Kao contributed to this article

Write to Fabiana Negrin Ochoa at fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com

16. Chinese national arrested in US on charges of trafficking arms to North Korea

Very curious. Was this actually a north Korean operation or was it the result of a strong with agent posing as north Korea agents?

Chinese national arrested in US on charges of trafficking arms to North Korea

Justice Department alleges man exported firearms, ammunition and controlled technology in violation of sanctions

https://www.nknews.org/2024/12/chinese-national-arrested-in-us-on-charges-of-trafficking-arms-to-north-korea/

Chad O'Carroll December 4, 2024

Image: Pexels

A Chinese national illegally residing in the U.S. has been arrested for allegedly exporting ammunition and other military items to North Korea, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) announced Tuesday.

Shenghua Wen, 41, based in Ontario, California, is charged with conspiracy to violate the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, the DOJ said in a report published by its Office of Public Affairs. If found guilty, he could face a maximum penalty of 20 years in federal prison.

According to a criminal complaint filed on Nov. 26, Wen obtained firearms, ammunition and export-controlled technology with the intention of shipping them to North Korea in violation of U.S. sanctions against the country.

Wen and his co-conspirators allegedly concealed the items inside shipping containers that were sent from Long Beach, California through Hong Kong to North Korea. Law enforcement seized approximately 50,000 rounds of 9mm ammunition from Wen on Sept. 6 that he allegedly planned to send to North Korea.

“Wen is a Chinese national who is illegally in the United States after overstaying his student visa and is therefore prohibited from possessing any firearms or ammunition,” the Justice Department said in its statement.

Messages retrieved from Wen’s cellphones revealed he discussed shipping military-grade equipment to North Korea with co-conspirators earlier this year, with some messages including photographs of items controlled for export under the International Traffic in Arms Regulations.

Wen made his initial court appearance Monday afternoon in the Central District of California. It was not immediately clear if he had an attorney.

Wen’s case illustrates the lengths North Korea appears prepared to go to in order to obtain components and munitions. It also comes as reports have recently shown the scale of foreign components — including from the U.S. —being utilized in advanced DPRK ballistic missile systems, such as those being used by Russia for its war against Ukraine.

Other NK News investigations have revealed a similar mechanism for North Korea to obtain sanctioned goods, leveraging Chinese nationals to route cargo to the DPRK through Chinese ports.

Wen’s case also follows a myriad of China-related international incidents involving North Korea.

In one case, a South Korean man was arrested in July for allegedly leaking military secrets after being recruited by a suspected Chinese intelligence agent, according to ROK prosecutors, though it’s still unclear whether the Chinese operative was also working for North Korea.

Switzerland also detained a Canadian North Korea expert in March for allegedly spying on the DPRK for Chinese intelligence officers. His case remains unresolved, an NK News investigation has shown, with neither the Swiss or Canadian governments revealing details about the allegations levied against him.

Edited by Alannah Hill

17. Actor and Former 707 Special Mission Group Member Lee Kwan-hoon Persuades Martial Law Troops: “Don’t Block the Way”

A former ROK Special Forces Nocommissioned officer saves the Republic of Korea?

Actor and Former 707 Special Mission Group Member Lee Kwan-hoon Persuades Martial Law Troops: “Don’t Block the Way”

Celebrity / December 3, 2024 / By ngchi

https://kbizoom.com/actor-and-former-707-special-mission-group-member-lee-kwan-hoon-persuades-martial-law-troops-dont-block-the-way/

Martial Law

Actor Lee Kwan-hoon was spotted personally persuading martial law troops.

According to the YouTube channel “Hwang Reporter TV,” Lee Kwan-hoon, a former member of the 707 Special Mission Group, approached the martial law troops who had entered the National Assembly and attempted to engage in dialogue.

In the video, Lee Kwan-hoon introduced himself, saying, “I’m a 707 senior,” and continued, “I know you’re acting on orders, but you need to stay calm. I served 20 years ago as Sergeant Lee Kwan-hoon, your senior.”

He further added, “I spoke with some of your peers. I heard helicopters are bringing in more reinforcements, and I came because I’m concerned. No matter who gave you the orders, avoid using excessive force or blocking the way. I trust you can make the right judgment.”

Lee Kwan-hoon served in the 707 Special Mission Group (This unit specializes in high-risk missions, including black operations, counterterrorism, direct action, executive protection, hostage rescue, irregular warfare, and tactical intelligence gathering) and was discharged in 2004 with the rank of sergeant. He later transitioned to acting, appearing in dramas such as “Dae Joyeong,” “The Great Queen Seondeok,” “Road No. 1,” “Voice,” and Big Issue.

On December 3, at 10:24 PM (KST), President Yoon Suk-yeol declared martial law during an emergency briefing at the Yongsan Presidential Office. Armed martial law troops broke through the glass windows of the National Assembly building and clashed with citizens as they entered. The National Assembly passed a resolution demanding the termination of martial law with 190 votes in favor. Subsequently, President Yoon lifted the martial law and ordered the withdrawal of troops at 4:27 AM on December 4.

18. Actions create consequences: let’s think over some kimchi: a bit more on yesterday’s whirlwind in Korea

My input to my mentor, Dr. (Professor Emeritus) Cynthia Watson and her excellent analysis and commentary.

Actions create consequences

let’s think over some kimchi

a bit more on yesterday’s whirlwind in Korea

https://cynthiawatson.substack.com/p/lets-think-over-some-kimchi?utm

Cynthia Watson

Dec 04, 2024

Following many electrons ricocheting around the world over roughly eighteen hours, things seem to be calmer in Seoul today. But people are still scratching their heads about what on earth the Korean president was thinking. I offer a couple of amplifications on what history probably will call a truly bizarre day in South Korea’s history.

First, as promised, I offer thoughts from a man who knows the country and the personalities about as well as anyone could, following decades of personal and professional involvement. COL David Maxwell, USA retired, served in the Army Special Forces community for decades. He is a legend, particularly in both Korea and the Philippines. David graduated from the National War College in 2004, returned as his final active duty assignment from 2010-2011 where I had the privilege of working with him, and then went on to Georgetown University and the Foundation for the Protection of Democracy. David serves as the Vice President of the Center for Asia Pacific Strategy as well as Editor of Small Wars Journal.

You might recall he invited my husband and I to address a gathering of Midshipmen and Cadets merely two and a half weeks ago. David departed that conference the next morning for a trip to Seoul where he heard first hand of the on-going frustration with President Yoon Suk Yeol only a few days ago. I enclose David’s analysis of what we saw yesterday, though recognizing he may delve more deeply into Korean affairs that many of us ever go. He permitted to quote him so I will give you the details in full because he points out implications most of the analyses are skipping over (If you use his remarks in any manner, please credit him as he intends to publish them).

“The bottom line for me is four things:

1) Despite the tragic event South Korean democratic institutions held. Everyone should take solace in that.

3) I fear all the good work of the Yoon administration will be upended both internationally such as with trilateral ROK-Japan-US cooperation. However my worst worry is that the human rights upfront agenda, the necessary information campaigns, and the pursuit of a free and unified Korea will be significantly and negatively affected especially if and when the opposition comes to power after President Yoon either steps down or is impeached.

Not a surprise that there are calls for impeachment. I think the question now is whether Yoon will step down before impeachment.

Here is my revised assessment. Fundamentally this is a domestic political issue but it has significant international implications politically and economically because South Korea has become a global pivotal state and a partner in the arsenal of democracy. Although this will not be a popular view, the Korean people in the South and all democracies should take solace that the democratic institutions of the Republic of Korea held and prevented a single leader from taking all power which fundamentally is what a republican government is designed to do. But there will continue to be huge political problems because of the domestic political divisions.

This martial law incident was really President Yoon's fight with the opposition Minjoo party and especially the opposition leader Lee Jae-myung.

This was surprising action and a huge miscalculation on Yoon's part that caught us all by surprise including apparently President Yoon’s own party leadership. It was obvious that this martial law order could not last long at all which Yoon must have known as well. A question is who was advising Yoon and what made him think martial law was the correct action?

Timing - likely to receive little or no condemnation from the incoming Trump administration as much as there may be from Biden or would be if Harris had won.

Timing: large scale labor union protest to begin.

Danger two - this will destroy the ROK conservative movement by delegitimizing it and ensure a win by the opposition in the next election (which was likely anyway).

The General Assembly voted to overturn and the military allowed the National Assembly to vote. Since Yoon accepted the vote the rule of law can be said to have prevailed and perhaps like Nietzsche, that which does not kill me (or kill democracy) makes me (or democracy) stronger.

But I expect the that General Assembly will soon begin impeachment proceedings especially if Yoon does not heed the calls to step down.

Its internal politics have external effects. But I truly worry about how this will discredit the good work that Yoon has done with the 8.15 unification doctrine. Will any successor continue to follow the pursuit of a free and unified Korea or will they revert to the failed policies of the past in the naive hope that Kim Jong un will negotiate and denuclearize so there can be co-exist between north and South while 25 million continue their unimaginable suffering in the north. The real losers in this tragic event are going to be those 25 million Koreans in the north.”—David Maxwell

I want to stress his second danger because it raises consequences of incredibly long duration. No, we can’t forget that politicians are merely individuals, folks who tend to seek copious approbation by running for office as well as offering ideas to help run a country. None of them ever want to lose power. Come on, let’s not be daft here: no one likes rejection or loss of influence. It’s just not human nature.

But, a participatory system, whether a republic such as Korea’s or anyone else’s, relies on a functioning opposition to create a political dynamic healthy in the society. The Democratic Party in the United States won House of Representative majorities in all but a single election (1948) between 1930 and 1994. It was not healthy for Democrats or Republicans or Hagadoobies; this is not a partisan matter but one of human tendencies to get lazy intellectually. The period had many good things but it also had some pretty bad ones. This is true at any and all level of government—period.

It’s too tempting for a members of any party facing no intellectual or philosophical opposition to become absurdly overcomfortable, to stop serious intellectual honing for the purpose of improving governance proposals, to become “entitled” as elected officials. The members of said entitled party lose a connection with those it represents and those over whom it governs. Arguably that is precisely why happened with the “Contract for America” in 1993. (Republicans, in turn, fell prey to the beginnings of the same mentality later in the decade as scandals roiled the Party—Newt Gingrich, Robert Livingston, and Dan Burton-in 1998.)

Intellectual engagement and governing rest on the exchange and defense of ideas. Institutionally, it’s hard to find something more important for a society since I know of no system in the world where everyone agrees on things all of the time.

President Yoon holds a substantially different view of the DPRK or the trilateral relationship with the United States and Japan, as I noted yesterday. He won election with the slimmest of margins in 2022 while leading a smallish conservative party determined to raise these policy questions against a substantial headwind in Korean society. While there is no guarantee the conservative political forces rather than Yoon himself will suffer the wrath of voters but there is a good chance of that. If so, the lack of a nationalist, forcefully anti-North Korean moderation position could threaten the ROK’s safety as a sovereign state. It would also disillusion a substantial number of Koreans who feel left out of options than those of more centrist or leftist elements. Sound familiar?

David Maxwell’s concerns are real for this country, like Israel or Taiwan, facing an existential threat every day. The DPRK has proven anything but interested in ending the conflict from decades past, instead developing its own nuclear capability and strengthening ties with Russia in the midst of the Ukraine conflict.

President Yoon’s proclamation of martial law, suspending political activities he did not support, and limiting both freedom of assembly and the press were unacceptable to the people of Korea. His actions appeared self-serving, petty, and unsustainable. But the consequences affected many beyond himself and his wife who he may have been protecting against investigations. The heart of the question for the future, however, will be how any of this leads Koreans to approach democracy differently? It will do but we can’t know for certain yet precisely how. Actions create consequences but they are never completely apparent as soon as the initial event closes.

I welcome your questions, thoughts, and comments. If there is interest, I can resurrect online discussion forum with David Maxwell for subscribers to question him directly. He is a gem whose knowledge is so welcome for this oft-misunderstood place. I welcome your suggestions on what would be useful to YOU as readers and subscribers.

Thank you for your time today and any day. Please feel free to circulate this column if you find it of value. Thank you to the subscribers whose support means so much. Do send me any reactions!

It was another crisp but lovely dawn. If you’ve never been to Annapolis or Eastport, you owe it to yourself to visit the Sailing Capital of the World.

19. South Korea's sloppy coup attempt: Why'd Yoon do it?

Excerpts:

Here we must get into purely domestic politics. Yoon attempts to rule in the face of an opposition majority in parliament and is even feuding with his own party leader Han. The opposition wants to hamstring him with a restrictive budget and has all sorts of impeachment motions going along with accusations of corruption against his wife.

Meanwhile, apparently, the drill is to take a leaf out of ancient South Korean 1970s and 80s history, hype the North Korean threat and rule by decree. Yoon’s move may have seen to have the possibility of success, as the president had stacked the military with hardline anti-North Korean loyalists. But the venture failed.

Where do we go from there in this argument? Even deeper into domestic politics, probably. Stay tuned for that.

“This is an act of political suicide,” says Newsham. “Yoon did a shoot, ready, aim sort of thing. He’s right about pro-NK and pro-CCP elements in the opposition. But, man, this doesn’t look good. Hard to put the egg back together. If one is a chess player, not hard to think of a few parties that benefit from this turn of events.”

South Korea's sloppy coup attempt: Why'd Yoon do it? - Asia Times

With a nod to history, Asia Times editors take a crack at unraveling the wild and still largely untold story out of Seoul

asiatimes.com · by Bradley K. Martin, Uwe Parpart · December 4, 2024

Journalists going after a story traditionally focus on answering the “five Ws” but that has often been difficult in South Korea.

That certainly was the case during a period of martial law in the 1970s and 1980s when the military-backed government had all the tools needed to intimidate Korean journalists. Government agents were known to spy on foreign journalists using wiretaps and even blackmailed some after catching them in honey traps baited with supplied sexual partners.

The country has become more transparent since becoming a democracy in 1987 and a sloppy attempt at a coup d’etat by President Yoon Suk Yeol failed before any censors in the coup plotters’ group could keep the world from learning the pretty fully available answers to four of the five W questions regarding the incident: the who, the what, the when and the where.

It looks like Yoon colluded with elements of the military by appointing General Park An-su, the Republic of Korea Army’s chief of staff, as martial law commander. But, in the National Assembly in Seoul on Tuesday (December 3), with soldiers in battle gear trying to get in and shut down the country’s parliament, Yoon’s own civilian party leader turned on the president.

Yoon had stacked the military with loyalists, but he hadn’t protected his civilian flank. He had decreed martial law, but his order was rejected in parliament.

As of this writing, we’re waiting to see if the general and his immediate boss, Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun, reportedly blamed by the president for bad advice, step down and how the whole mess ends up affecting the worse-than-awkward standing of a president who’s highly unpopular halfway through a five-year elected term.

From answers to those four Ws, much of the news-consuming world knows enough that many people will feel justified in dismissively describing the affair as a farcical return to 1980s politics. As Karl Marx said: First time tragedy, second time farce.

But in truth we don’t know quite enough to be sure that’s a fair judgment. What’s in short supply with this story so far is the fifth W, the why. Why did Yoon do it?

Start with the explanation he gave in his televised address announcing martial law Tuesday night Seoul time:

To safeguard a liberal South Korea from the threats posed by North Korea’s communist forces and to eliminate anti-state elements plundering people’s freedom and happiness, I hereby declare emergency martial law.

Let’s give the president the benefit of the doubt and assume, for the moment, for purposes of figuring things out, that he was advised to do so by his warriors.

Listening to Yoon’s reference to “threats posed by North Korea’s communist forces,” retired US Marine Colonel Grant Newsham, who often writes for Asia Times about military matters, says in an email that he is “curious to know why he did it and why the military went along. Something specific? If not, not a good move.”

So let’s ask why the defense minister, and the army under General Park, backed Yoon’s scheme until National Assembly lawmakers stood up to be counted and voted to reject the presidential order?

First, there is, indeed, a history here. Using an alleged heightened threat from North Korea as a pretext for grabbing power is the way the military-backed regime rolled back in the 1970s and ’80s.

One of the two writers of the piece you’re reading (the one who is wondering today if the Seoul Hilton concierge is still storing his gas mask and helmet in readiness for the next round) was involved directly in just such a case.

After the October 26, 1979, assassination of South Korean President Park Chung Hee, when there was great confusion in the South, the North did not yield to the temptation to move southward militarily in units large enough to be detected. Some reports from Seoul to the contrary were outright lies, concocted by the forces backing upstart Major General Chun Doo-hwan in his ultimately successful power grab.

Correspondents from the Baltimore Sun Tokyo bureau caught South Korean government officials red-handed in the fabrication of a report – intended to defuse student demonstrations – that Northern moves to invade the South appeared to be underway.

Briefing South Korean newsmen in Seoul on May 10, 1980, Prime Minister Shin Hyon-hwak claimed that a “close ally” had informed the government that North Korea’s infiltration-trained Eighth Army Corps had been out of sight of intelligence surveillance for some time. The unit might surface in South Korea, perhaps between May 15 and May 20.

At the time, South Korea had only two “close allies”, the United States and Japan. Thus it was a simple matter to check, and to report in the Sun the next morning, that neither ally had provided this information.

Instead, the Japanese said the South Koreans had been trying to peddle the “intelligence” to them, claiming it came from China – a country that certainly was not a close ally. “The South Korean inquiry appeared to be something of an advertising balloon,” a Japanese source said dryly.

With this historical background, there should have been no surprise early Wednesday when – after the South Korean special forces soldiers assigned to enforce martial law by closing down the National Assembly had left the premises and the mission had been abandoned – the military announced that no unusual North Korean movements had been detected.

“What do you think Kim Jong Un will do?” asks Stanford’s Daniel Sneider, whose Asia Times byline is familiar to you, dear readers. “Sit tight and enjoy the show, I imagine.”

In fact, the action on the streets of Seoul so far doesn’t sound remotely enough to make North Korea’s Kim Jong Un think it’s time to intervene now.

Even major involvement by North Korean forces to stoke the Gwangju uprising, a bit later in May 1980 when Seoul’s streets were on fire, is a disputed theory put forward by Korean Military Academy loyalists.

They argue that Chun and his sidekick Roh Tae-woo, both proud graduates of the KMA and both of whom eventually became president, were too honorable to have oppressed the people of Gwangju the way those two and their special forces subordinates were and are alleged to have sparked the uprising by doing.

History as guidance has its limits. “We will have to see how much of the army follows the orders,” Sneider noted in an email before the martial law-enforcing soldiers stood down at the National Assembly. “This is not 1979 or 1980.”

Moving on, and again giving Yoon the benefit of the doubt, note that, in the president’s justification for martial law, he tied North Korea to “anti-state” elements at home.

Yoon has been a major critic of pro-North elements he believes are seeking – with some success – to take over South Korea politically. We happen to agree that this is a serious problem, both for South Korea and for its allies. Asia Times has been warning about it for years.

However, it is not a new problem. Moon Jae-in’s five-year noticeably pro-North presidency immediately preceded Yoon’s taking up residency in the Blue House. And Kim Jong Un did not grab South Korea during that time.

If the problem has reached certifiable Fifth Column stage and needs to become recognized as an emergency that warrants installation of a new military dictatorship, we are not aware of the evidence.

One other aspect of this theme may be involved here. Very probably there was no tangibly increased North Korean threat. But it was an opportune time for Yoon to hint at one, as the whole world was aghast at the deployment of North Korean troops to Russia — allegedly, even to the Kursk frontline.

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Oh, and maybe one further point: Yoon and the military may also have intended to pre-empt Trump from talking to his good buddy Kim again. But what does all this not-quite-new background tell us about Yoon’s motivation for pulling the martial law stunt at this particular moment?

Here we must get into purely domestic politics. Yoon attempts to rule in the face of an opposition majority in parliament and is even feuding with his own party leader Han. The opposition wants to hamstring him with a restrictive budget and has all sorts of impeachment motions going along with accusations of corruption against his wife.

Meanwhile, apparently, the drill is to take a leaf out of ancient South Korean 1970s and 80s history, hype the North Korean threat and rule by decree. Yoon’s move may have seen to have the possibility of success, as the president had stacked the military with hardline anti-North Korean loyalists. But the venture failed.

Where do we go from there in this argument? Even deeper into domestic politics, probably. Stay tuned for that.

“This is an act of political suicide,” says Newsham. “Yoon did a shoot, ready, aim sort of thing. He’s right about pro-NK and pro-CCP elements in the opposition. But, man, this doesn’t look good. Hard to put the egg back together. If one is a chess player, not hard to think of a few parties that benefit from this turn of events.”

Uwe Parpart is publisher and editor-in-chief of Asia Times. Follow him on X @uwe_parpart

Associate Editor Bradley K. Martin covered the South Korean democratization movement, first for the Baltimore Sun and then for Newsweek. Follow him on X @bradleykmartin

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asiatimes.com · by Bradley K. Martin, Uwe Parpart · December 4, 2024

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

Access NSS HERE

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