Quotes of the Day:
“Any book worth banning is a book worth reading.”
- Isaac Asimov
“And how we burned in the camps later, thinking: What would things have been like if every Security operative, when he went out at night to make an arrest, had been uncertain whether he would return alive and had to say good-bye to his family? Or if, during periods of mass arrests, as for example in Leningrad, when they arrested a quarter of the entire city, people had not simply sat there in their lairs, paling with terror at every bang of the downstairs door and at every step on the staircase, but had understood they had nothing left to lose and had boldly set up in the downstairs hall an ambush of half a dozen people with axes, hammers, pokers, or whatever else was at hand?... The Organs would very quickly have suffered a shortage of officers and transport and, notwithstanding all of Stalin's thirst, the cursed machine would have ground to a halt! If...if...We didn't love freedom enough. And even more – we had no awareness of the real situation.... We purely and simply deserved everything that happened afterward. - Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn
"Here’s the wicked paradox about terrorism. Long-term responses do nothing about short-term dangers. Short-term reactions feed extremism over long term."
- Carmen Medina former DDI, CIA, 19 NOV 2015
1. Containment Can Work Against China, Too
2. Facing Economic Collapse, Afghanistan Is Gripped by Starvation
3. Abuses, malaises of US democracy exposed in China’s report
4. The Case of Tennis Star Peng Shuai Reveals the Real Purpose of China's Censorship
5. US makes resurgence to extend lead over China as most powerful nation in Asia
6. China’s communists bash US democracy before Biden summit
7. (UK) Special Forces soldiers headhunted to work as MI6 spies as China and Russia threat soars
8. Opinion | Biden’s Democracy Summit Was Never a Good Idea. But Here’s How To Make It Work.
9. Opinion | Who ordered the Uyghur genocide? Look no further than China’s leader.
10. Beijing ‘hunts’ Taiwan citizens overseas, gets hundreds sent to China: report
11. U.S. sounds alarm on Ukraine
12. Beijing hosts international democracy forum calling for upholding common values
13. How Taliban Have Used US Media against the US to Further Their Afghan Agenda
14. Why the US Navy Wants More Aircraft Carriers
15. On Syria’s Ruins, a Drug Empire Flourishes
16. Myanmar’s top general Min Aung Hlaing is strangling a democracy. What will the west do about it?
17. Americans used to trust the military more than the rest of the government, but now even that’s fading
18. When the Biggest Spenders Aren’t Coming Back Any Time Soon
19. The rescue of Parwana: 9-year-old child bride is taken to safety in Afghanistan
20. The inside story of how ISD crippled a terrorist network targeting Singapore after 9/11
21. U.S. should expect cyberattacks in any struggle for Taiwan
22. The U.S. Triumphs When Leaders Find a Path Between Isolation and Hubris
23. Finely-Tuned, Hyper-Focused (Air Force Special Operations Command)
24. Special Operations: Media Misinterpreting Marines (UK)
25. US officials say humanitarian effort in Syria is another means to counter ISIS (US SOF)
1. Containment Can Work Against China, Too
I am glad he wrote this. I think there are many lessons and "guidance" that we can apply to strategic competition. But "Cold War '' are bad words or anyone who makes the argument is an anachronism.
Containment Can Work Against China, Too
There are important differences between Xi Jinping’s China and the Soviet Union, but the Cold War still offers clear strategic guidance for the U.S.
The challenge is, admittedly, complex because China is so deeply integrated into the very system that its hegemonic ambitions threaten. But Washington has a precedent to draw on, if only it could set aside the endless—and superficial—debate over whether the U.S.-China relationship is a “new Cold War” and instead engage more deeply with the strategic insights developed in the original Cold War.
In the decades after World War II, the U.S. waged and won a multigenerational struggle against an authoritarian rival. It devised, at the outset, an elegant strategy—containment—that guided the actions of successive presidents of both parties. Today’s rivalry with Beijing isn’t an exact replica of the Cold War, of course. China is far more economically dynamic and technologically sophisticated than the Soviet Union was. Xi Jinping isn’t Stalin or Mao, although he admires the former and increasingly emulates the latter. But the best strategies have qualities that transcend particular eras and places. To succeed against a rising China, the U.S. must relearn the lessons of containment.
“Containment yielded an epochal U.S. victory because it was well-suited to long-term rivalry—the very quality that makes it relevant today.”
Containment emerged as a response to a dilemma that today’s policy makers would recognize: A powerful tyranny that the U.S. had tried to mold into a “responsible stakeholder” threatened to destroy the system instead. During World War II, Franklin Roosevelt allied with Stalin’s Soviet Union and sought to make it a partner in building a stable peace. By 1946-47, however, fears of a third global war were widespread, as U.S.-Soviet tensions spiked and Moscow’s power loomed menacingly over a shattered world.
Diplomat and historian George F. Kennan in his office at the State Department, circa 1948
Photo: Eric Schwab/Hulton Archive/Getty Images
The basic problem, as State Department official George Kennan explained in a pseudonymous 1947 essay in Foreign Affairs, was that a witch’s brew of traditional Russian insecurity, communist ideology and Stalinist paranoia made the Kremlin relentlessly hostile to the capitalist world. But if the Soviets weren’t reconcilable, Kennan argued, they were deterrable. Stalin understood that the U.S.S.R. was still weaker than the U.S., and his confidence in the eventual victory of communism meant that he would back down rather than fight prematurely.
America’s best strategy, then, was one of “firm containment”: checking Soviet power through “the adroit and vigilant application of counterforce at a series of constantly shifting geographical and political points.” If Washington denied Moscow the benefits of expansion, Kennan argued, the inner weaknesses of the communist system—the irrational command economy, the vicious absurdities of its totalitarian politics—would eventually take their toll. The result would be the “breakup or gradual mellowing of Soviet power.” A patient strategy, he insisted, would produce transformative results.
Kennan initially offered few details about how, where and with what tools Soviet power should be contained. In the late 1940s, the Truman administration would begin devising specific policies—aid to Greece and Turkey, the Marshall Plan, the creation of NATO—that made containment a reality. Later presidents, from Eisenhower to Reagan, put their own twists on the idea, taking widely varying approaches to issues such as negotiations, nuclear strategy and countermeasures against communist inroads in the developing world. Throughout the Cold War, the overarching goal of American strategy remained fixed, but the methods were subject to endless revision and debate.
President Harry Truman called NATO a "shield against aggression" in a speech at its inception in Washington D.C, April 4, 1949.
Photo: ASSOCIATED PRESS
In fact, containment was a more controversial—and taxing—doctrine than we often remember. The strategy led Washington to fight ghastly “limited” conflicts in Korea and Vietnam. The U.S. had to prepare continually for an apocalyptic global nuclear war just to preserve an unsatisfying peace. Containment entailed profound moral compromises, such as supporting brutal Third World dictators; it involved open-ended commitments and expenses beyond anything America had borne before.
The era’s doves deplored the perpetual peril that containment promised, while hawks abhorred the semi-permanent stalemate that it implied. At certain points, such as during the 1960s, a world-wide quest to curb communist gains led the U.S. into disastrous overreach. At others, namely the late 1970s, the combination of surging Soviet power and crippling Western self-doubt seemed to jeopardize the entire project.
Yet in the end, containment paid almost exactly the returns that George Kennan had promised. Imperfect as it was, the West’s long effort to resist Soviet aggrandizement eventually forced a new generation of Kremlin leaders to radically reduce their ambitions. Accumulating internal problems triggered desperate reforms that unintentionally brought the system crashing down. Denied easy expansion, Soviet power mellowed and crumbled, leading to the emergence of a world more secure, prosperous and democratic than ever before.
“The strategy endured, through four decades and nine presidencies, because it blended brutal clarity with great flexibility.”
Containment yielded an epochal strategic victory, without the catastrophic war that such triumphs had typically required. It managed this feat because it was well-suited to long-term rivalry—the very quality that makes it relevant to today’s U.S.-China contest.
Containment endured, through four decades and nine presidencies, because it blended brutal clarity with great flexibility. Kennan pulled no punches regarding the severity of the Soviet threat and the persistence needed to defeat it. He specified a bold, if distant, objective—the breakup or mellowing of Soviet power—and a straightforward approach to achieving it. Yet because containment, as Kennan expressed it, was an indication of direction rather than a detailed road map, it left room for maneuver along the way.
American presidents periodically expanded or contracted the country’s defense perimeter; they dialed up or down the intensity of the contest. During the 1970s, for instance, a superpower exhausted from Vietnam sought a breather through diplomatic detente. A decade later, a re-energized Reagan administration sought victory by pressuring the Kremlin on all fronts.
U.S. troops northwest of Bien Hoa, Vietnam, May 20, 1965.
Photo: Horst Faas/Associated Press
Kennan later regretted the capaciousness of containment and felt that the doctrine had evolved in ways that he hadn’t intended. But containment’s conceptual simplicity ensured its endurance through a long conflict, even while its malleability kept it responsive to the Cold War’s twists and turns.
Today, the U.S. needs the clarity that makes such flexibility possible. “Competition” is a geopolitical reality, not a strategic objective. The objective should be stopping China from overturning the balance of power and building a future in which authoritarianism is dominant. Put another way, the U.S. must contain China’s ability to reshape the international order produced by the U.S. victory in the Cold War. The fact that this rival, like the Soviet Union before it, is driven by a potent combination of grievance and ambition—angry nationalism, intense autocratic insecurity, the grandiose designs of an emperor-for-life—suggests that its challenge to the U.S. will persist until Chinese power fades or the nature of the regime changes.
Such an objective leaves scope for choice on how best to defend the Western Pacific, to vie for influence in developing countries and to blend competition and diplomacy with Beijing. It doesn’t preclude the U.S. from running hard at certain stages of the rivalry and slowing down at others. As the history of containment shows, strategic clarity should function not as a straitjacket but as a compass.
Containment also succeeded because it deployed U.S. strengths to reveal the enemy’s weaknesses and to discredit the enemy’s strategy. Kennan understood that Stalin needed external victories to mask internal failures. Soviet officials believed that they could attain those victories because the capitalist world, having twice torn itself apart, couldn't hold together for long.
By denying Moscow the geopolitical triumphs it needed, containment brought the infirmities of the Soviet system into the open. At the same time, the U.S. continually cultivated the health and solidarity of non-communist countries, to show that history wasn’t on the Kremlin’s side, after all.
Chinese fighter jets during military drills in the Yellow Sea, Dec. 23, 2016
Photo: AFP/Getty Images
Today’s China isn’t the Soviet Union, but the country’s formidable strengths conceal grave weaknesses. Slowing growth, political sclerosis and looming demographic catastrophe threaten the regime. Through his belligerence, Mr. Xi has made rivals of countries near and far. His strategy, such as it is, appears to involve seeking near-term wins—subduing Taiwan and weakening U.S. alliances in the Pacific, establishing a technological sphere of influence encompassing countries around the world—to offset, and perhaps even reverse, the accumulating effects of longer-term problems.
If Washington can block those advances, then Mr. Xi’s narrative of inevitable Chinese ascent will start to look hollow. And his successors will someday have to turn inward and address, through domestic reform and diplomatic moderation, the country’s growing isolation and the clutch of economic, political and social tensions that Mr. Xi’s policies are accentuating.
“Working with like-minded countries, the U.S.can generate collective pressure that will throw Beijing on its heels.”
Answering China will simultaneously require American leaders to emulate another virtue of containment—pursuing unilateral advantage through multilateral means. Communism, Kennan wrote, was a parasite “which feeds only on diseased tissue.” In the late 1940s, the Soviet threat was so severe because famine, radicalism and instability were rampant. In response, the U.S. engaged in one of history’s most audacious undertakings: Working with dozens of countries to create a vibrant free world.
Washington rebuilt shattered societies and anchored a flourishing Western economy. It promoted, if not always consistently, democracy as a source of political stability and common moral purpose. The U.S. forged alliances that protected the non-communist world from its enemies and from its own historic divisions. It outplayed the Soviet Union by remaking the globe around it—by creating a Western community whose cohesion Moscow couldn't break and whose power it couldn't equal.
The best check on autocratic aggression remains the strength and unity of the democracies. Knowing this, Mr. Xi longs to separate Washington from its friends. Any narrowly nationalistic American approach to competition will thus fail. The U.S. will need instead deeper cooperation with like-minded countries—on trade, technological innovation and defense—to build collective resilience against Chinese aggression and to generate the collective pressure that can throw Beijing on its heels for a change.
Xi Jinping attends a ceremony marking the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party, Beijing, July 1
Photo: Li Xueren/Xinhua/Getty Images
Indeed, containment reflected another fundamental truth of long-term rivalry: It is hard to win while remaining wholly on the defensive. The strategy was primarily defensive, and this contrast with the Kremlin’s more expansive aims is one of the reasons that so many countries accommodated Washington’s power and resisted Moscow’s. But containment bolstered a strong defense with a selective offense, meant to keep a dangerous adversary off-balance and under strain. To this end, U.S. information warfare highlighted the crimes and failures of East-bloc regimes. Diplomatic wedge strategies helped to split Moscow from Yugoslavia’s Tito and China’s Mao. The Reagan administration used anticommunist insurgents to roll back an overextended Soviet empire.
The U.S. never seriously sought to overthrow the Soviet regime. That is a line it shouldn’t cross with China, either. But Washington does need ways of taking the fight to an enemy that is certainly taking the fight to it.
The U.S. can work with allies to slow Chinese innovation through technological denial policies that limit its access to cutting-edge semiconductors, vast troves of American data and other crucial goods. It can complicate China’s overseas expansion by highlighting the corruption, authoritarianism and local resentment that its Belt and Road Initiative often fosters in developing countries.
Not least, by quietly manipulating the technical vulnerabilities of China’s Orwellian, AI-enabled domestic security systems, and by publicly sanctioning Communist Party officials engaged in heinous abuses, America can make repression pricier for Mr. Xi’s government. If Beijing responds with self-defeating “wolf warrior” outbursts—as it did in early 2021, reacting so furiously to multilateral sanctions imposed due to its persecution of the Uyghurs that it derailed an EU-China investment deal—so much the better.
The most effective long-term strategies aren’t simply passive: They bait an enemy into blunders and drive up the costs that it must pay to compete.
A strategy of this nature will make for a tense, sometimes frightening struggle. But containment emerged in the first place and ultimately prevailed not because it was ideal but because it was the best of bad alternatives. Few observers in the late 1940s or after welcomed a long slog against Moscow. There was little joy in a fraught contest conducted in the shadow of Armageddon.
Only when containment was compared to other possibilities—a replay of the appeasement that had preceded World War II, or a military showdown that would cause World War III—did its merits become clear. Containment offered a way of navigating unacceptable extremes, showing that sharp but patient competition could allow the free world to avoid disastrous confrontations as well as disastrous defeats.
Containing Chinese influence implies a return, for the foreseeable future, to Cold War-style tensions and crises. It requires, once again, discarding the dream of “one world”—a single, seamlessly integrated global order—and accepting the grim realities of competition in a divided one.
Beijing is trying to become the globe’s dominant power and usher in an autocratic century. If it succeeds, the world that America built through its Cold War victory will be consigned to history. Undertaking another urgent, enduring effort to contain an advancing rival won’t be easy, but it is the best way of averting a still darker future.
Mr. Brands is the Henry Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. This essay is adapted from his new book, “The Twilight Struggle: What the Cold War Can Teach Us About Great-Power Rivalry Today,” which will be published by Yale University Press in January.
2. Facing Economic Collapse, Afghanistan Is Gripped by Starvation
Excerpts:
Since the Taliban seized power, the United States and other Western donors have grappled with delicate questions over how to avert a humanitarian catastrophe in Afghanistan without granting the new regime legitimacy by removing sanctions or putting money directly into the Taliban’s hands.
“We believe that it’s essential that we maintain our sanctions against the Taliban but at the same time find ways for legitimate humanitarian assistance to get to the Afghan people. That’s exactly what we’re doing,” the deputy U.S. Treasury secretary, Wally Adeyemo, told the Senate Banking Committee in October.
But as the humanitarian situation has worsened, aid organizations have called on the United States to move more quickly.
Facing Economic Collapse, Afghanistan Is Gripped by Starvation
An estimated 22.8 million people — more than half the country’s population — are expected to face potentially life-threatening food insecurity this winter. Many are already on the brink of catastrophe.
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Women and children awaited treatment at a World Food Program-supported health clinic in Kandahar, Afghanistan, in October.Credit...Jim Huylebroek for The New York Times
By
Dec. 4, 2021, 10:57 a.m. ET
SHAH WALI KOT, Afghanistan — One by one, women poured into the mud brick clinic, the frames of famished children peeking out beneath the folds of their pale gray, blue and pink burqas.
Many had walked for more than an hour across this drab stretch of southern Afghanistan, where parched earth meets a washed-out sky, desperate for medicine to pump life back into their children’s shrunken veins. For months, their once-daily meals had grown more sparse as harvests failed, wells ran dry and credit for flour from shopkeepers ran out.
Now as the crisp air grew colder, reality was setting in: Their children might not survive the winter.
“I’m very afraid, this winter will be even worse than we can imagine,” said Laltak, 40, who like many women in rural Afghanistan goes by only one name.
While Afghanistan has suffered from malnutrition for decades, the country’s hunger crisis has drastically worsened in recent months. This winter, an estimated 22.8 million people — more than half the population — are expected to face potentially life-threatening levels of food insecurity, according to an analysis by the United Nations World Food Program and Food and Agriculture Organization. Of those, 8.7 million people are nearing famine — the worst stage of a food crisis.
Women carrying their children through the desert to a Red Crescent mobile health clinic in a village in Shah Wali Kot district, Kandahar.Credit...Jim Huylebroek for The New York Times
A patient talking with doctors at a Red Crescent mobile health clinic in Shah Wali Kot.Credit...Jim Huylebroek for The New York Times
Such widespread hunger is the most devastating sign of the economic crash that has crippled Afghanistan since the Taliban seized power. Practically overnight, billions of dollars in foreign aid that propped up the previous Western-backed government vanished and U.S. sanctions on the Taliban isolated the country from the global financial system, paralyzing Afghan banks and impeding relief work by humanitarian organizations.
Across the country, millions of Afghans — from day laborers to doctors and teachers — have gone months without steady or any incomes. The prices of food and other basic goods have soared beyond the reach of many families. Emaciated children and anemic mothers have flooded into the malnutrition wards of hospitals, many of those facilities bereft of medical supplies that donor aid once provided.
Compounding its economic woes, the country is confronting one of the worst droughts in decades, which has withered fields, starved farm animals and dried irrigation channels. Afghanistan’s wheat harvest is expected to be as much as 25 percent below average this year, according to the United Nations. In rural areas — where roughly 70 percent of the population lives — many farmers have given up cultivating their land.
Afghanistan Under Taliban Rule
With the departure of the U.S. military on Aug. 30, Afghanistan quickly fell back under control of the Taliban. Across the country, there is widespread anxiety about the future.
Now, as freezing winter weather sets in, with humanitarian organizations warning that a million children could die, the crisis is potentially damning to both the new Taliban government and to the United States, which is facing mounting pressure to ease the economic restrictions that are worsening the crisis.
“We need to separate the politics from the humanitarian imperative,” said Mary-Ellen McGroarty, the World Food Program’s country director for Afghanistan. “The millions of women, of children, of men in the current crisis in Afghanistan are innocent people who are being condemned to a winter of absolute desperation and potentially death.”
Madina, 2, who was brought by her grandmother to Mirwais Regional Hospital in Kandahar in October after a pharmacist said there was nothing more he could do for her.Credit...Jim Huylebroek for The New York Times
Women and children at the pediatrics ward of Mirwais Regional Hospital in October.Credit...Jim Huylebroek for The New York Times
In Shah Wali Kot, a barren district in Kandahar Province, the drought and economic crash have converged in a perfect storm.
For decades, small farmers survived the winters on stored wheat from their summer harvest and the income from selling onions in the market. But this year yielded barely enough to sustain families during the fall months. Without food to last the winter, some people migrated to cities hoping to find work or to other districts to lean on the help of relatives.
Inside one of the two mud huts of the clinic, which is run by the Afghan Red Crescent and supported by the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, Laltak clutched her granddaughter’s gaunt frame as if steeling herself for the hardships she knew this winter would bring.
Her family has no wheat left, no wood to make fires for heat, no money to buy food. They have exhausted the support of nearby relatives who cannot even feed their own families.
“Nothing, we have nothing,” Laltak said in an interview at the end of October.
She and most of the mothers interviewed did not own cellphones or have phone service in their villages, so The Times could not follow up with them on the health of their children.
Many women and children walked for more than an hour to reach the Red Crescent health clinic in Shah Wali Kot district.Credit...Jim Huylebroek for The New York Times
A Taliban guard managing crowd control as Afghans receive food aid during a distribution by the World Food Program in Kabul, in October.Credit...Victor J. Blue for The New York Times
Thirty percent more Afghans faced crisis-level food shortages in September and October compared with the same period last year, according to the United Nations. In the coming months, the number of Afghans in crisis is expected to hit a record high.
“It was never this bad,” said Sifatullah Sifat, the head doctor at the Shamsul Haq clinic on the outskirts of Kandahar city, where malnutrition cases have doubled in recent months. “Donors are shipping in medicine, but it’s still not enough.”
By 10 a.m. each morning, a throng of mothers carrying skeletal children masses in the hallway of the malnutrition unit.
Inside an examination room in October, Zarmina, 20, cradled her 18-month-old son while her 3-year-old daughter stood behind her, clutching her blue burqa. Since the Taliban seized power and her husband’s work as a day laborer dried up, her family has survived on mostly bread and tea — meals that left her children’s stomachs gnawing with hunger.
Laborers unloading sacks of flour from a World Food Program convoy, in October.Credit...Victor J. Blue for The New York Times
The humanitarian catastrophe unfolding in Afghanistan comes as hunger has steadily risen around the world in recent years.Credit...Victor J. Blue for The New York Times
“They are crying to have food. I wish I could bring them something, but we have nothing,” said Zarmina, who is six months pregnant and severely anemic.
Zarmina’s son had grown frail after weeks of diarrhea. He stared blankly at the wall as a nurse wrapped a color-coded measuring band used to diagnose malnutrition around his rail-thin arm, stopping at the color red: Severe malnourishment.
As the nurse told Zarmina that he needed to go to the hospital for treatment, another mother barged into the room and collapsed on the floor, demanding help for her infant daughter.
“It’s been almost one week, I can’t get medicine for her,” she pleaded.
The nurse begged her to wait: Her daughter’s malnutrition was considered only moderate.
Since the Taliban seized power, the United States and other Western donors have grappled with delicate questions over how to avert a humanitarian catastrophe in Afghanistan without granting the new regime legitimacy by removing sanctions or putting money directly into the Taliban’s hands.
“We believe that it’s essential that we maintain our sanctions against the Taliban but at the same time find ways for legitimate humanitarian assistance to get to the Afghan people. That’s exactly what we’re doing,” the deputy U.S. Treasury secretary, Wally Adeyemo, told the Senate Banking Committee in October.
But as the humanitarian situation has worsened, aid organizations have called on the United States to move more quickly.
American officials showed some flexibility around loosening the economic chokehold on Afghanistan last week, when the World Bank’s board — which includes the United States — moved to free up $280 million in frozen donor funding for the World Food Program and UNICEF. Still, the sum is just a portion of the $1.5 billion frozen by the World Bank amid pressure from the United States Treasury after the Taliban took control.
As freezing winter weather sets in, humanitarian organizations warn that a million children could die of acute malnutrition in Afghanistan in the coming months.Credit...Jim Huylebroek for The New York Times
A baby is being checked for signs of malnutrition at a World Food Program health facility in Kandahar.Credit...Jim Huylebroek for The New York Times
How those released funds will be transferred into Afghanistan remains unclear. Despite letters that the U.S. Treasury Department recently issued to foreign banks assuring them they can process humanitarian transactions to Afghanistan, many financial institutions remain fearful of exposure to U.S. sanctions.
The Taliban government has repeatedly called on the Biden administration to ease economic restrictions and has worked with international organizations to deliver some assistance. But already, millions of Afghans have been pushed over the edge.
At Mirwais Regional Hospital in Kandahar this fall, children suffering from malnutrition and disease crowded onto the pediatric ward’s worn metal beds. In the intensive care unit, an eerie silence filled the large room as children too weak to cry visibly wasted away, their breath labored and skin sagging off protruding bones.
“I wanted to bring her to the hospital earlier,” said Rooqia, 40, looking down at her one-a-half-year-old daughter, Amina. “But I had no money, I couldn’t come.”
Like many other mothers and grandmothers in the ward, they had come from western Kandahar where over the past two years irrigation channels have run dry and more recently, pantries emptied. Amina started to shrivel — her skin so drained of life-sustaining vitamins that patches peeled away.
On a bed nearby, Madina, 2, let out a soft wail as her grandmother, Harzato, 50, readjusted her sweater. Harzato had taken the girl to the local pharmacist three times begging for medicine until he told her there was nothing more he could do: Only a doctor could save the child.
“We were so far from the hospital, I was worried and depressed,” Harzato said. “I thought she might not make it.”
A severely malnourished child in the intensive care unit of Mirwais Regional Hospital in October.Credit...Jim Huylebroek for The New York Times
Yaqoob Akbary contributed reporting from Kandahar, Wali Arian from Istanbul and Safiullah Padshah from Kabul.
3. Abuses, malaises of US democracy exposed in China’s report
From the Chinese propaganda mouthpiece the Global Times.
Excerpt:
It explained "what is democracy" and revealed three malaises of democracy in the US: the system fraught with deep-seated problems, messy and chaotic practices of democracy and disastrous consequences of US export of its brand of democracy, sending the world a strong advocate from China that "if no country seeks to dictate standards for democracy, impose its own political system on others or use democracy as a tool to suppress others, and when all countries can live and thrive in diversity, our world will be a better place."
Abuses, malaises of US democracy exposed in China’s report - Global Times
Messy and chaotic practices of US democracy. Graphic: Xu Zihe/GT
One day after China released a white paper on its democratic model with details and examples showing how the whole-process democracy with people's full participation in China works, the country issued another report detailing the abuses and malaises of democracy in the US on Sunday, which experts said was a "timely and to the point" move to crush the "halo" of the so-called "a beacon for democracy" ahead of the US-initiated summit for democracy that is being widely criticized for dividing the world by ideology.
Against the background of the US' attempts to make the democracy issue an ideological tool, China's recent actions also help the international community to clear the clouds and show what true democracy is. As the beacon of US democracy is dimming, the democratic practices in China are dazzling with brilliance, they say.
From Iraq to Afghanistan, from so-called "democratization" in Africa and Latin America to the "Arab Spring," from the riots on Capitol Hill to the record high COVID-19 death toll, the world has witnessed turbulence and humanitarian disasters brought by the US in exporting the country's democratic model. Coming at the time when democracy in the US is "seriously ill," the 15,000-word report titled "The State of Democracy in the United States," released by the Chinese Foreign Ministry gained high attention as soon as it was issued.
It explained "what is democracy" and revealed three malaises of democracy in the US: the system fraught with deep-seated problems, messy and chaotic practices of democracy and disastrous consequences of US export of its brand of democracy, sending the world a strong advocate from China that "if no country seeks to dictate standards for democracy, impose its own political system on others or use democracy as a tool to suppress others, and when all countries can live and thrive in diversity, our world will be a better place."
The report first recognized that the development of democracy in the US was a step forward from a historical perspective, and then pointed out that democracy in the US has degenerated and become alienated over the past years, which has increasingly deviated from the essence of democracy and its original design. It quoted large number of reports, opinions, data and investigations conducted by US media and papers written by reputed US scholars, showing the world that the deep-seated problems in the US democracy have already been laid bare, battered and detested by its own American people themselves.
Messy and chaotic practices of US democracy. Graphic: Xu Zihe/GT
"Problems like money politics, identity politics, wrangling between political parties, political polarization, social division, racial tension and wealth gap have become more acute. All this has weakened the functioning of democracy in the US," it said.
It is hoped that the US will improve its own system and practices of democracy and change its way of interacting with other countries. This is in the interest of not only the American people, but also the people of other countries, the report stressed.
On Saturday, the State Council, China's cabinet, released a white paper, titled "China: Democracy That Works," which introduced the country's whole-process people's democracy under the leadership of the Communist Party of China, the sound institutional framework, the concrete and pragmatic practices of China's democracy, and the new model of democracy that China has developed.
Senior Chinese officials said at a press conference to launch the white paper that China has the confidence and strength to expound on its democratic practice, as China has actively responded to people's requests and expectations, developed whole-process people's democracy and achieved the widest participation of its people. The country's democracy is more extensive, more genuine and more effective than US democracy, as US politicians represent the vested interest groups but in China the whole-process democracy ensures implementation of policies that improve people's lives.
Messy and chaotic practices of US democracy. Graphic: Xu Zihe/GT
Lü Xiang, a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, described the recent moves as "timely" and "to the point," as China has been relatively reserved in the world's political debates.
Facing the US' tactics and propaganda campaign, China should explain its stance properly, telling people who lack sufficient understanding of China about the country's democratic system and its achievements. "We do not export our political system, but when we're attacked, we should clarify how China's political structure works," Lü said.
According to the expert, the US tried to inculcate in the developing world the idea that countries were growing slowly because they did not emulate Western institutions. The report released by the Chinese Foreign Ministry makes it clearer to all countries that US democracy is not only failing to deliver a good life for their people, but even creating more problems and disastrous consequences for the world.
Diao Daming, an associate professor at the Renmin University of China in Beijing, noted that the two documents do not mean to deny Western democracy or engage in confrontation with the US, but to set the facts straight and tell the international community what is right and wrong.
"China is also on behalf of the international community to expose the US' actions: facing the chaos of democracy at home, the US seeks hegemony in the international arena under the guise of democracy. The two reports issued by China largely negate the legitimacy of the US-initiated democracy summit," Diao said.
As China has only published reports on the human rights records of the US previously, Diao referred to the report on US democracy as "objective, professional, balanced and innovative," which will help the international community know exactly what democracy is.
Democracy is one of the common values pursued all over the world, which means it is not what anyone says it is. It is based on the "efficacy of treatment," on the historical development status, path and construction needs of any country. It should meet the needs of the people and can effectively respond to the people, the expert said.
So-called summit a joke
"How to run a democracy summit when your own democracy is dying", the US magazine The National Interest asked in an article published on Thursday, saying that "democratic standards should apply to everyone and are not just a vocabulary that the powerful use to lecture the weak."
At Saturday's press conference, Xu Lin, Vice Minister of the Publicity Department of the CPC Central Committee and director of the State Council Information Office, said the US-manipulated so-called summit for democracy is a joke, as it is using democracy as a banner to crack down on countries with different systems and development models. He made the remarks in response to a question on whether China and the US are battling over the narrative of democracy.
The US has ineffective domestic governance while imposing hegemony in its foreign policy. Isn't it ridiculous such a country claims itself to be a model of world democracy or a beacon of democracy? Xu asked.
Fan Peng, a research fellow at the Institute of Political Sciences, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said the so-called democracy summit exactly reflects the US' decline in power and influence.
"The US can't show to the world more staunch democratic ethics and moral standards, neither can it provide public goods for global security and stability, thus it can only hope to stand on the so-called moral high ground to identify and unite which countries will follow it and use the ideology to stigmatize its opponents."
4. The Case of Tennis Star Peng Shuai Reveals the Real Purpose of China's Censorship
Excerpts:
Chinese censorship and platform maintenance is multifaceted and easy to replicate in part or whole. The subsequent impact of censorship can manifest in longer-term ways beyond the stifling of a specific topic at a certain point in time.
Peng Shuai’s censorship over Chinese social media continues, with topics based on her name and story still banned on Weibo and WeChat publishing platforms. Though the IOC feels confident that she is safe, the systemic changes of the acts of censorship continue to reverberate online, for her and for other individuals with #MeToo stories bursting at the seams.
As it turns out, remembering the politically inconvenient is a risky thing. To help others to remember is even more dangerous.
The Case of Tennis Star Peng Shuai Reveals the Real Purpose of China's Censorship
Wired · by Condé Nast · December 5, 2021
“Even if I court disaster like an egg against stone or a moth to a flame, I will tell the truth about you and me.” So wrote Chinese doubles tennis star Peng Shuai. Her post lasted 30 minutes on Weibo before it was censored, and her name rendered unsearchable.
Though Peng had done the unheard of—accusing former vice premier Zhang Gaoli of forcing her into a sexual relationship—this is not China’s only high-profile story of sexual misconduct in recent years. The removal of Peng’s posts comes on the heels of the case earlier this year of scriptwriter Zhou Xiaoxuan, also known as Xianzi. Zhou’s own accusation, which originally went viral on social media in 2014, was against Zhu Jun, a news anchor for one of China’s main state-run channels and a household name. She took Zhu to court, asking 50,000 RMB (about $7,600 USD) in damages and a public apology for groping her in a dressing room during an interview. This September, the judge ultimately decided that Zhou’s accusations had insufficient proof. Once again, Zhou took to social media, this time to criticize how the judiciary treated her legal team, and detailing how she was barred from introducing evidence of the assault. Her social media accounts were subsequently shuttered.
Peng’s and Zhou’s experiences are connected by their efforts to share their sexual assault stories and the support both received. Their respective hashtags were not mere trends, but also catalysts for the formation of communities connected by anguishing experiences of sexual harassment. Discussion of Zhou’s case online attracted attention and encouraged women to speak up, share her story, and find solidarity with one another. (Zhou herself was encouraged to speak up back in 2014 after seeing a friend posting a story of sexual harassment.) Meanwhile, Peng’s disappearance spurred frantic shares of the post detailing what she had gone through. International stars, including Naomi Osaka, Serena Williams, and Steve Simon, the head of the Women’s Tennis Association, trended the hashtag #WhereisPengShuai.
After Peng’s and Zhou’s stories came to light, state censors aimed to erase any evidence of wrongdoing and preserve the reputations of the powerful men at the core of Chinese state and political culture. In Zhou’s case, censors went after friends and well-wishers; a 300-member WeChat group that had grown in the wake of her court case suddenly vanished. Peng Shuai’s post prompted takedowns of not only her name and Zhang Gaoli’s name, but also temporarily the terms “tennis” and “melon,” a Chinese slang term for snacking while watching controversial or dramatic events. Moreover, the speed of the takedowns in the days since Peng’s post was taken down encouraged self-censorship.
The reception of these stories and the treatment of those who supported them show that censorship in China is more sophisticated than merely suppressing content that violates policies and guidance.
Most critical analysis of Chinese social media censorship focuses on the increasing number of words, phrases, or topics censored or filtered. But the function of censorship is far broader than this piecemeal approach suggests, encompassing also the destruction of online spaces and communities. Censors don’t focus solely on keywords. Organizational capacity and the ability to assemble in virtual spaces are key factors in how the party assesses political risk, and in how law enforcement in general decide how to throttle activities by groups outside of mainstream politics.
When civic spaces are closed and groups deleted, individuals with few or no connections outside of social media have backlogs of resources and connections taken away. In the case of WeChat specifically—which users in China utilize for chats, payments, blog publishing, travel, and other digital record keeping—a suspension or ban cuts a user off from many everyday communication and life tools.
This is not about topics. This censorship is fundamentally about the dismantling of social resources. Content takedowns not only address the shorter-term problem of text or images that government actors want to remove, they also weaken activists' ability to rebuild by isolating them and dampening their ability to create new resources. Censors can ensure that these groups stay silent. Conceptualizing censorship in a solely piecemeal way neglects the damage that destroying the foundations of organizing and civic society components can do.
Chinese censors have not operated using content- or keyword-only censorship for nearly a decade, finding early on that the social nature of social media was key to modernizing and maintaining China’s Great Firewall. Xi Jinping himself characterized cyberspace in a 2016 speech as a “spiritual garden” for information innovation and cybersecurity. He claimed that this conceptual garden has “a clear sky, and crisp air with a good ecology in cyberspace conforms to the people’s interests. A pestilent atmosphere with a deteriorating ecology in cyberspace, in turn, does not conform to the people’s interests.” Unsaid but key to his analogy was what, and who, would have to be pruned and removed.
Communist Party internal literature also acknowledges the power of digital social networks beyond banning specific keywords. In preliminary studies of community environments on Weibo that led to increased control over social influencers, researchers identified the environment as a new frontier in civic spaces. Party scholars wrote: “Because cyberspace has no systemic barriers or binding ideological constraints … different classes, areas, and types of media can exchange, integrate, or confront ideas, making the public opinion environment increasingly complex.”
Topic-based bans do remain an integral part of censorship, including of historically taboo events like the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre and content published by banned media outlets like The New York Times, Washington Post, and BBC. However, after the rise of bloggers and social media influencers in the late ’00s, the public opinion environment was also precisely targeted by campaigns meant to curtail influencer impact and the capacity of nongovernment thought leaders to build community. In theory, social media users with large followings were private citizens. However, the mid-2010s handed them a choice: They could serve and support the politics of Chinese authorities, or they could face discipline by law enforcement and the dismantling of their communities. In 2013, amidst a flurry of blogger crackdowns, novelist Hao Qun summarized the trend aptly: “They want to sever those relationships and make the relationship on Weibo atomized, just like relations in Chinese society, where everyone is just a solitary atom.”
By the time Peng appeared in a November 2021 video call with IOC chair Thomas Bach, the Weibo and WeChat environments had virtually purged discussions with offending keywords or references to an earlier, clumsier cover-up email sent to the Women’s Tennis Association.
In Zhou’s case, censors assessing organizational risk were likely concerned by the number of supporters, as well as their ability to mobilize actions in the physical world, including sending supplies to those holding vigils outside the courthouse where her case was evaluated. The collective characteristics of their support, too, was cause for concern.
Silencing organizers and victims of sexual assault is one of many tactics used to weaken the capacity to assemble cases and public opinion campaigns. The playbook of making communities taboo and the isolation of politically inconvenient views spans a wide breadth of groups, from feminists to Marxist labor organizers to citizen journalists who covered the handling of the 2020 Covid-19 outbreak in Wuhan.
Though Zhou has not received prison time or been arrested for her case, the monitoring of her activity itself is meant to put pressure on her to tone down or silence her calls for justice, and stop her story from spreading. The closure of her account likely sets an example for her supporters as to what is verboten in terms of discussion or commentary. In speaking about the aftermath, Zhou was determined in her appeal but visibly shaken by the takedowns of her posts. Though she said she would try to pursue the legal procedures to the end, she was stunned by the sudden and abrupt silencing of her accounts. “It felt like everything that I did was a crime,” she recounted in an interview with The Guardian. “This is a torturous feeling.”
Like Zhou, feminist activist Lü Pin was not left unscathed by the sudden shutdown of Feminist Voices, the organization she cofounded. The group’s closure demonstrates that Chinese censors may keep working in perpetuity while the communications tools of activists and people with stories against the grain, like Peng, have their online existence hang by a thread. “Because what the government does is to isolate us from one another,” the activist explains, “therefore, we must connect with each other, and moreover, we must create and spread the alternative knowledge of resistance. This is what feminism is good at, after all.”
Chinese censorship and platform maintenance is multifaceted and easy to replicate in part or whole. The subsequent impact of censorship can manifest in longer-term ways beyond the stifling of a specific topic at a certain point in time.
Peng Shuai’s censorship over Chinese social media continues, with topics based on her name and story still banned on Weibo and WeChat publishing platforms. Though the IOC feels confident that she is safe, the systemic changes of the acts of censorship continue to reverberate online, for her and for other individuals with #MeToo stories bursting at the seams.
As it turns out, remembering the politically inconvenient is a risky thing. To help others to remember is even more dangerous.
Wired · by Condé Nast · December 5, 2021
5. US makes resurgence to extend lead over China as most powerful nation in Asia
US makes resurgence to extend lead over China as most powerful nation in Asia
By Anthony Galloway The Sydney Morning Herald3 min
The United States has defied the global pandemic to make its first annual gain in comprehensive power in Asia in four years, cementing its position at the top, while China has lost ground and has no clear path to undisputed supremacy in the region.
The Lowy Institute’s 2021 Asia Power Index ranked 26 countries in the Indo-Pacific region on eight measures, including economic resources, military spending and cultural and diplomatic influence, using 131 indicators.
The US under Joe Biden has overtaken Xi Jinping’s China on a number of key indicators.Credit:AP
The study of shifting power in the region shows the US has overtaken China in two critical rankings - diplomatic influence and projected future resources and capabilities - extending its lead over China as the most powerful country in Asia.
It is the first time the US has risen in power since the Asia Power Index was launched in 2018, and comes after a sharp decline in 2020 when it was being ravaged by COVID-19.
The top five countries did not change from the previous year with China, Japan, India and Russia rounding out the list.
Australia’s key indicators went down overall, but it held its spot as the sixth most powerful country in the region.
The US’s improvements were largely put down to President Joe Biden making significant inroads in addressing the public health crisis caused by COVID-19, improvements in the economy and international coalition building.
But the US’s gains relative to China across four measures of power have been somewhat undermined by losses elsewhere - most notably in military capability and economic relationships in Asia.
The nuclear-powered submarines promised under AUKUS won’t arrive until at least another 20 years, and the deal marked a deepening, rather than a widening, of Australia’s defence relationships.
The project’s director, Hervé Lemahieu, said AUKUS was “still largely theoretical, so it’s hard for the data to track an agreement which hasn’t really come to fruition yet”.
He said the results overall were “mixed” for Australia.
“On the one hand, Australia’s been much more resilient in the face of Chinese tariffs and informal sanctions than we once feared,” he said.
“So our resilience is up, but our influence is down. And that’s curious in a year of big diplomatic achievements, including AUKUS and the first leadership level meeting of the Quad.
“It’s curious that we’re down on defence diplomacy in the year of AUKUS, and I think that really suggests that this has been more about a deepening of our established relationships, rather than a widening of networks.”
With the US reversing its decline, Mr Lemahieu said the results were “certainly positive” for American allies and partners.
“It goes against everything that we’ve seen in the Asia Power Index up until today,” he said.
“From 2018 to 2020, we saw basically the US in decline, and really in a very pronounced decline last year. “And the fact that that trend has now been disrupted ... that it’s actually showing signs of a very competitive resurgence, is significant.”
Mr Lemahieu said the US’s resurgence was significant because it “wasn’t just political”.
“It’s also structural,” he said. “It’s the fact that US economic capabilities are up, the fact that its future resources and its future prospects are also looking far more positive, and in fact outrank China - which is huge.”
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6. China’s communists bash US democracy before Biden summit
Excerpts:
The party argues that strong central leadership is needed to maintain stability in a sprawling country that has been riven by division and war over the centuries.
“In such a large country with 56 ethnic groups and more than 1.4 billion people, if there is no party leadership, … and we uphold the so-called democracy of the West, it will be easy to mess things up and democracy will work the opposite way,” Tian said.
China’s communists bash US democracy before Biden summit - Hawaii Tribune-Herald
BEIJING — China’s Communist Party took American democracy to task on Saturday, sharply criticizing a global democracy summit being hosted by President Joe Biden next week and extolling the virtues of its governing system.
Party officials questioned how a polarized country that botched its response to COVID-19 could lecture others, and said that efforts to force others to copy the Western democratic model are “doomed to fail.”
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The harsh rhetoric reflects a growing clash of values that has been thrust into the spotlight as China rises as a global power. The question is whether the United States and other leading democracies can peacefully co-exist with a powerful authoritarian state whose actions are at odds with the Western model that emerged victorious at the end of the Cold War.
The pandemic exposed defects in the American system, said Tian Peiyan, the deputy director of the Communist Party’s Policy Research Office. He blamed the high COVID-19 death toll in the U.S. on political disputes and a divided government from the highest to the lowest levels.
“Such democracy brings not happiness but disaster to voters,” he said at a news conference to release a government report on what the Communist Party calls its form of democracy, which is firmly under party control.
Neither China nor Russia are among about 110 governments that have been invited to Biden’s two-day virtual “Summit for Democracy,” which starts Thursday and will address strengthening democracy, defending against authoritarianism, corruption and human rights.
The participation of Taiwan, a self-governing democracy that China says should be under its rule, has further angered Beijing.
U.S.-China relations remain strained despite a virtual summit between Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping last month. The American president has repeatedly framed differences with China in his broader call for the U.S. and its allies to demonstrate that democracies can offer humanity a better path toward progress than autocracies.
The Communist Party has ruled China single-handedly since 1949.
It says that various views are reflected through consultative bodies and elected village and residents committees, but silences most public criticism with censorship and sometimes arrest.
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The party argues that strong central leadership is needed to maintain stability in a sprawling country that has been riven by division and war over the centuries.
“In such a large country with 56 ethnic groups and more than 1.4 billion people, if there is no party leadership, … and we uphold the so-called democracy of the West, it will be easy to mess things up and democracy will work the opposite way,” Tian said.
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7. (UK) Special Forces soldiers headhunted to work as MI6 spies as China and Russia threat soars
Some parallels here.
While some in SRR, who possess highly technical digital skills, may be deployed to bolster MI6 numbers within Britain’s newly created National Cyber Force, others will be sent to both China and Russia, posing as tourists, academics, businessmen and women or even sailors on commercial ships.
All successful applicants will spend a year learning Mandarin or Russian, and undergo cultural awareness training before being deployed to areas such as Latvia or Hong Kong.
The move would place more pressure on an already stretched resource, with Special Forces currently the only troops deployed to fight in war zones and jihadi hotspots across the globe.
While the SAS has experienced a slight increase in numbers over the last 12 months as the regular Army adjusted to transformational changes, Special Forces regiments are still undermanned - with the SAS around 15 percent under strength and the SBS around 20 percent.
Special Forces soldiers headhunted to work as MI6 spies as China and Russia threat soars
Express · by Marco Giannangeli · December 5, 2021
MI6 courts operationally experienced members of the SAS, SBS and Special Reconnaissance Regiment (Image: Getty)
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The news emerges just days after MI6 chief Richard Moore - known as 'C' - placed China as top of Britain’s ‘four big intelligence priorities” - along with Russia, Iran and international terrorism. Last night experts said the move to boost recruitment confirmed that, despite the growth of digital and cyber capabilities, human intelligence was “more important than ever” in gaining vital information about what inner circles of Britain’s adversaries and so-called “strategic competitors” were actually thinking and planning.
MI6 - or the Secret Intelligence Service (SIS), as it is formally known - has now begun to actively court operationally experienced members of the SAS, SBS and Special Reconnaissance Regiment, sources say.
While some in SRR, who possess highly technical digital skills, may be deployed to bolster MI6 numbers within Britain’s newly created National Cyber Force, others will be sent to both China and Russia, posing as tourists, academics, businessmen and women or even sailors on commercial ships.
All successful applicants will spend a year learning Mandarin or Russian, and undergo cultural awareness training before being deployed to areas such as Latvia or Hong Kong.
The move would place more pressure on an already stretched resource, with Special Forces currently the only troops deployed to fight in war zones and jihadi hotspots across the globe.
While the SAS has experienced a slight increase in numbers over the last 12 months as the regular Army adjusted to transformational changes, Special Forces regiments are still undermanned - with the SAS around 15 percent under strength and the SBS around 20 percent.
But sources say this shows the urgency being felt in Whitehall at addressing a shortage of intelligence officers vital to tackle China, Russia and Jihadi groups in "grey zone" operations.
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Making his first speech since taking over MI6, Moore pointed to authoritarian China’s threat, as its intelligence officers carry out ‘highly capable” espionage operations here and use social media to “distort public discourse and political decision making”, while its growing armed forces and posture over Taiwan offer a real chance of conflict.
“Beijing believes its own propaganda - the risk of Chinese miscalculation through overconfidence is real,” he said.
Russia, he said, continues to mount "state sanctioned" attacks such as we have seen in Salisbury and the Czech Republic” and other destabilising activities which “contravenes the rules-based international system.”
With its nefarious cyber activities and assassination programmes Iran "parallels the challenge posed by Russia", he added. Another parallel is Iran's "development of nuclear technology which has no conceivable civilian use" and which, he said, must be contested.
On Friday diplomatic efforts to repair the broken nuclear deal with Iran seemed on the brink of tatters as hardline President Iran Ebrahim Raisi insisted on changes in terms and the lifting of all sanctions before committing to curb an advancing nuclear programme.
Last night James Rogers of the Council on Geostrategy think tank said: “Moore’s rhetoric and language is much firmer than I’ve seen before by anyone in HMG.
‘He rightly points out that China is now a major power that is ready and willing to use its power. This should worry us all.”
Moore went on to describe MI6 as “Britain’s overseas human intelligence agency (which) recruits and runs clandestine agents in other countries” and invited members of the public to consider joining, adding: “There is no more important or - I believe - more exciting time to work for MI6."
Intelligence expert Dr Danny Steed, of Cranfield University, said: “The idea that human intelligence is somehow less relevant in the digital and cyber age is wrong.
“Human intelligence has become more important precisely because of cyber; disinformation and alternative facts poison the dialogue and make us increasingly question what truth actually is. We cannot assume that public rhetoric from Beijing or Moscow necessarily reflects the reality of thought in the inner circle.
“There may be things going on behind closed doors which can help us. Are there elements they are scared of? Are there things about which they are bluffing?
“The more we can reduce that uncertainty, the clearer C’s threat ledger can be tabled to Downing Street.”
Dr Paul Maddrell, of Loughborough University, added: "In the 1990s the USSR accounted for 70 percent of all our foreign intelligence work. After the Soviet Union fell, there were more targets, but less concern over each. Now we have even more targets, and very great concern about each.
"It should come as no surprise that SIS is recruiting."
Express · by Marco Giannangeli · December 5, 2021
8. Opinion | Biden’s Democracy Summit Was Never a Good Idea. But Here’s How To Make It Work.
Excerpts:
First, don’t be afraid to call out your guests.
Second, don’t let democracy alone dictate whom you work with.
Third, use civil society groups to hold countries accountable.
Fourth, use the summit to make real progress on fixing America’s broken democracy.
Opinion | Biden’s Democracy Summit Was Never a Good Idea. But Here’s How To Make It Work.
Magazine
Although the gathering risks being more trouble than it's worth for the White House, we have four suggestions for mitigating the pitfalls — and maybe even pulling off a success.
Biden will convene 100+ world leaders for a virtual “Summit for Democracy” later this week. Last month, pictured above, he met with leaders to discuss his Build Back Better World initiative. | Evan Vucci/AP Photo
Opinion by JAMES M. GOLDGEIER and BRUCE W. JENTLESON
12/05/2021 07:00 AM EST
James Goldgeier is a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution and a professor of international relations at American University.
Bruce Jentleson is the William Preston Few professor of public policy and political science at Duke University.
President Joe Biden will convene more than 100 world leaders, along with civil society and private-sector representatives, for his much-touted “Summit for Democracy” on Thursday and Friday. The virtual event, focused on “renewing democracy in the United States and around the world,” fulfills a pledge Biden made repeatedly in his presidential campaign — and one that we urged him to ditch shortly after he was elected.
In an article laying out our case last December, we stressed that determining who is sufficiently democratic to make the invite list would inevitably create tensions, and that the entire concept of a democracy summit relies on an overly ideological approach to managing the global agenda. Better, we thought, to skip the summit and get to the work of promoting democracy by working with already existing international institutions and partnerships, while revitalizing our own programs like USAID. Finally, we feared the U.S. had questionable credibility to position itself as a leading democracy, worries that were heightened after January 6 and amid ongoing efforts by many Republicans to undercut our own democratic system.
The Biden team, obviously, chose differently. We still think the summit risks becoming a self-inflicted wound, but given that it is happening anyway, here are four ways in which the administration can mitigate the most likely pitfalls.
First, don’t be afraid to call out your guests. Taking geopolitics into account, even when it means compromising your ideals somewhat, is a fact of life in foreign policy. With a summit billed as being literally “for democracy,” though, this risks going from complication to contradiction. The administration did draw a line by declining to invite NATO allies Hungary and Turkey, whose democratic credentials are in serious doubt. A number of other backsliding democracies that we raised concerns about — Poland, the Philippines, Brazil and India — did get invited. Each has its geopolitical rationale. But their undemocratic practices have grown worse over the past year.
The Biden administration argues that these countries aren’t just being invited for reasons of realpolitik, but that including them provides opportunities for their civil societies to challenge authoritarian trends. (The White House might be looking for inspiration to the 1975 signing of the Helsinki Final Act, which ultimately helped foster the collapse of Eastern Europe’s communist regimes.) Still, the risk is that leaders may walk away able to say the United States recognized them as democratic. Each needs to get the message that their invitation does not mean the Biden team is letting them off the hook regarding their undemocratic trends. While it may be tough for the administration to be too blatantly public during the summit, well-placed leaks to the press can help ensure that behind-the-scenes diplomatic pressure is not so quiet as to lack teeth.
The message to Polish President Andrzej Duda should be that while the U.S. stands with him against Belarus’ weaponization of migrants at the border, it also supports the efforts of the EU Court of Justice, which has been fining Poland more than 1 million Euros per day for violating EU law regarding judicial independence. And though Tucker Carlson may heap praise on Duda, the Biden administration should make clear it will use its leverage to help those working to reverse Poland’s assaults on the courts and a free media.
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte needs to be reminded of the crucial role the U.S. played in bringing down Ferdinand Marcos’ dictatorship and re-establishing Philippine democracy in the 1980s. The U.S. should convey that it is committed to helping ensure next year’s Philippine elections are free and fair, with a particular eye on the autocratic family unity ticket of Marcos’ son and Duterte’s daughter.
On India, the administration got off to a good start with the March 2021 human rights report from the State Department, which extensively delineated human rights violations and criticized the “lack of accountability for official misconduct … at all levels of government.” But the U.S.-India security partnership has grown closer as part of the enhanced Indo-Pacific Quad, even as the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance recently ranked India as worst among all “backsliding” democracies. This makes it all the more important that the next human rights report be no less frank and the U.S. not be afraid to call out Narendra Modi’s government.
Second, don’t let democracy alone dictate whom you work with. Another challenge for Biden at the summit will be affirming the shared affinities among democracies without further dividing the world into two camps. Ideology and interests do not always align. Democracies often have divergent interests. Democracies and autocracies can have convergent ones.
Fellow democracies are frequently economic and geopolitical competitors, and often have different ideas about how to manage the threats posed by authoritarian states. In that regard, the summit is a good time to reaffirm Secretary Antony Blinken’s assurance to NATO in March that “The United States won’t force allies into an ‘us-or-them’ choice with China.”
Meanwhile, democracies cannot afford to be opposed to autocracies on every issue. In the Cold War, the United States and Soviet Union shared interests on issues like arms control and smallpox eradication. Today, the United States and China (as well as Russia) have a shared interest in combating climate change, reducing the risks of nuclear proliferation and fighting pandemics. Moreover, China is intertwined in the global economy in a way the Soviet Union never was.
The administration’s decision to invite Taiwan highlights this delicate balance between values and geopolitical reality. In one sense, Taiwan absolutely belongs on the invitation list; its democracy gets one of Freedom House’s highest rankings. But the invitation is obviously a delicate matter given Chinese concerns. Whatever sense of greater comity the Biden-Xi virtual summit fostered was punctured days later by Beijing’s protests over Taiwan’s summit invitation. The administration is keeping Taiwanese participation at a relatively lower level, but this diplomatic distinction doesn’t fully finesse the challenges.
While showing support for Taiwan and its democracy is an important foreign policy objective, the Biden team also needs to be firm with the Taiwanese government that it cannot use the summit invitation to insinuate support for independence or other goals inconsistent with the One China policy. Otherwise, the invite risks not only further complicating U.S.-China relations but also having Taiwan’s presence — and subsequent China tensions — becoming a main storyline crowding out the summit’s intended narrative. More generally, Biden should emphasize that, framing of the summit notwithstanding, democracies retain practical interests in working with non-democracies.
Third, use civil society groups to hold countries accountable. A common critique of the summit — which we agree with — has been that it will be nearly impossible to force countries to deliver on the democratic commitments they are being asked to make. The Biden administration has compiled an “illustrative menu of options” for initiatives they hope invited countries will choose to sign onto, and they plan to hold another summit a year from now to assess progress. These pledges need to be concrete enough to make the summit more than “just a photo op” — a risk that became clear with how few Paris climate commitments from 2015 were fulfilled, a failure that now hangs over the Glasgow COP-26 summit.
To ensure participants are held accountable, Biden should fully endorse the June 2022 Fifth Copenhagen Democracy Summit, whose more than 500 participants will undertake a “civil society stocktaking of the commitments made” at Biden’s summit. The Copenhagen meeting is a great opportunity to empower a consortium of groups such as Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, Transparency International and various NGOs in the Global South to provide the kind of accountability scorecards governments on their own will not.
Fourth, use the summit to make real progress on fixing America’s broken democracy. Finally, we expressed concerns last year that this was the wrong moment for the U.S. to host an international gathering focused on democratic values. Since then, those concerns have only been exacerbated by the January 6 insurrection; the refusal of many Americans — fed lies by their political leaders — to accept the results of the 2020 election; rampant political violence against election officials, health care workers and school board officials; and a systematic effort by Republicans in a number of states to curtail voting rights.
We give the administration credit for being humble about the United States' challenges. In announcing the summit, Biden acknowledged that for ourselves and for how the world sees us, “we must openly and honestly grapple with our history of systemic inequity and injustice and the way it still holds back so many in our society.”
Indeed, in the past, foreign policy considerations have spurred crucial domestic political change. Historian Mary Dudziak writes that during the Cold War, “as presidents and secretaries of state. . . worried about the impact of race discrimination on U.S. prestige abroad, civil rights reform came to be seen as crucial to U.S. foreign relations.” Even Hans Morgenthau, the intellectual godfather of power politics, stressed the need to “concentrate efforts upon creating a society at home which can . . . serve as a model for other nations to emulate.” Were Biden to use the summit to launch a major initiative for repairing American democracy so that it is once again emulatable, the summit may prove worthwhile after all.
9. Opinion | Who ordered the Uyghur genocide? Look no further than China’s leader.
From the Washington Post editorial board.
Conclusion:
The Uyghur genocide raises urgent questions about who must bear responsibility for potential crimes against humanity. The Xinjiang Papers show Mr. Xi and his cohorts ordered the destruction of language, culture, traditions, hopes and dreams of an entire people.
Opinion | Who ordered the Uyghur genocide? Look no further than China’s leader.
China’s top leadership gave the orders, according to a new analysis from Adrian Zenz, senior fellow in China studies at the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation, who has led the way in exposing the genocide. He points to comments and actions of China’s leader Xi Jinping and, secondly, his handpicked Xinjiang regional party boss, Chen Quanguo. In 2014, when the measures were first being contemplated, Mr. Xi declared, “Those who should be seized should be seized, and those who should be sentenced should be sentenced.” Mr. Chen later followed with “round up everyone who should be rounded up.”
Mr. Zenz’s conclusions are based on a cache of internal documents known as the Xinjiang Papers. They were first disclosed in the New York Times, which received 403 pages of previously secret documents from a “member of the Chinese political establishment,” and published a story Nov. 16, 2019. The Times published the full text of one document, but not the cache in its entirety, in order to protect the source from possible detection.
Then, in mid-September, digital files of the Xinjiang Papers were leaked to the Uyghur Tribunal, an independent fact-finding effort based in London, which has held three rounds of hearings this year and is planning to release a report next week. (The Times says it was not the source of this leak.) In the two years since the first disclosures, much more has become known about the nature and scope of the repression. Mr. Zenz authenticated and analyzed the documents for the tribunal and concluded the genocide was a deliberate policy choice, encouraged by Mr. Xi and others. In a Nov. 27 statement to the tribunal, Mr. Zenz said "linkages between statements and mandates made by Xi and other central government figures and policies that were implemented after 2016 are far more extensive, detailed and significant than previously understood.”
The genocide plans took shape after an outdoor market attack in southern Xinjiang in May 2014 in which 31 people were killed, which China blamed on Uyghur separatists. Mr. Xi declared that religious extremism is a “poison” and a “powerful psychedelic drug” and vowed to wipe it out. Key decisions followed: to build high-security reeducation camps in which more than 1 million Uyghurs were incarcerated; to push the Uyghur population into coerced labor; and to launch a campaign to suppress the birthrate of Uyghurs in Xinjiang. These were the pillars of the genocide.
The Uyghur genocide raises urgent questions about who must bear responsibility for potential crimes against humanity. The Xinjiang Papers show Mr. Xi and his cohorts ordered the destruction of language, culture, traditions, hopes and dreams of an entire people.
10. Beijing ‘hunts’ Taiwan citizens overseas, gets hundreds sent to China: report
Beijing ‘hunts’ Taiwan citizens overseas, gets hundreds sent to China: report
By Radio Free Asia flip.it4 min
This article was originally published by Radio Free Asia and is reprinted with permission.
China makes a point of ‘hunting’ citizens of democratic Taiwan held on criminal charges around the world and insisting they be extradited to the People’s Republic of China, which has never controlled Taiwan, a rights group said on Monday.
The overseas-based group Safeguard Defenders said it had documented hundreds of cases of Chinese officials targeting Taiwanese nationals overseas.
“This international persecution of Taiwan nationals amounts to an assault on Taiwanese sovereignty, and is part of the larger global campaign under Xi Jinping to exploit extradition treaties, mutual law enforcement agreements, and other multilateral institutions for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s political objectives,” the group said in a summary of its report listing more than 600 cases between 2016 and 2019.
The cases involve nationals of the Republic of China founded by Sun Yat-sen in 1911, which has controlled the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu since losing a civil war to Mao Zedong’s communists in 1949.
Taiwan issues Republic of China passports to its 23 million citizens, who have never been ruled by the CCP, and who have no wish to give up their democratic way of life for “unification” under Beijing’s plan, according to opinion polls in recent years.
Beijing, for its part, insists that its diplomatic partners sever ties with Taipei, and has blocked the country’s membership in international organizations like the United Nations and the World Health Organization (WHO).
According to the report, more than 600 Taiwanese nationals were sent to China from countries around the world at Beijing’s behest in the three years covered by the study. Most were accused of involvement in telecommunications fraud in countries as diverse as Cambodia, Kenya, the Philippines and Spain. In 2020, the Czech Supreme Court rejected an extradition request from China, citing the risk of torture and other inhumane treatment and rejecting Chinese assurances of consular access as “unreliable and insufficient,” the report said.
Forcible transfers
These forcible transfers often follow the denial of access to Taiwanese consular support or communication in the sending country, and sometimes followed by ongoing denial of contact with Taiwanese officials or family members when the person arrives in China.
“These forced transfers put Taiwanese nationals at risk of severe human rights abuses,” Safeguard Defenders said, citing international rules concerning non-refoulement, which means nobody should be sent to a country where they are at risk of persecution or human rights abuses.
“The extradition of Taiwanese nationals to [China] under pressure from Beijing should very much be seen as a violation of their human right to a fair trial, and their right to be free from torture,” the group said, calling on the international community to take “immediate steps” to halt the practice.
Report researcher Chen Yanting cited the cases of Taiwan democracy activist Lee Ming-cheh and volunteer activity organizer Lee Meng-chu, both of whom went “missing” while in China, and were later accused of spying.
Lee Ming-cheh is currently serving a five-year jail term, while Lee Meng-chu appeared on state broadcaster CCTV making a televised “confession” to harming state security.
“These two Taiwanese were detained, charged with crimes and sentenced by China through opaque processes,” Chen told RFA. “We have reason to believe that the other Taiwanese sent to China met with the same fate.”
“In China, everyone is at risk of not getting a fair trial, of exploitation [to suit the CCP’s political objectives] and of torture.”
Lack of ties hurts Taiwan
Chen said that as Taiwan begins to step up its bid to participate in international agencies, the island’s government could be in a better position to protect its nationals overseas.
Shen Po-yang of the Institute of Criminology at Taipei University said many of the countries agreeing to send Taiwanese to China have extradition or mutual assistance agreements in place with China, but not Taiwan.
“Our country should have its sovereignty respected, and its citizens should stand trial here,” Shen told RFA. “It’s not for another country to force them to atone there.”
“There are problems with the use of evidence and the conduct of trials in other countries, and they may be punished inappropriately,” he said. “From the perspective of human rights, it’s all wrong.”
Former Police University professor and current opposition Kuomintang (KMT) lawmaker Yeh Yu-Lan said that many people in Taiwan in fact want the Taiwanese telephone fraud suspects to be sent to China for a lesson.
In the absence of talks with China, which is furious with Taiwan president Tsai Ing-wen for promising to defend Taiwan’s sovereignty, countries will opt to send suspects to countries with which they have an established relationship, Yeh told RFA.
11. U.S. sounds alarm on Ukraine
U.S. sounds alarm on Ukraine
The Biden administration is "deeply concerned" by new intelligence — detailed for Axios and other outlets — showing Russia stepping up preparations to invade Ukraine as soon as early 2022.
Why it matters: Most of this was known from public sources and satellite imagery, but the administration is sending a stronger signal by releasing specific details from the intelligence community.
Between the lines: Multiple sources who've seen the classified intelligence told Axios that some of Vladimir Putin’s covert actions make them think he's more serious about an invasion than he was when he menaced Ukraine in April with a large-scale troop build-up.
- The White House is still trying to head off an invasion through diplomacy. President Biden's aides intensified rhetoric this week to counter what they call a Russian disinformation campaign to question the existence of evidence.
Ahead of an expected video call between Biden and Putin on Tuesday, the administration is holding intense conversations with allies and Russia.
- The administration is preparing a menu of possible responses, including heavy sanctions.
The details: An administration official tells us the scale of Russian forces would be "twice what we saw this past spring during Russia’s rapid military buildup near Ukraine’s borders."
- "The plans involve extensive movement of 100 battalion tactical groups with an estimated 175,000 personnel, along with armor, artillery, and equipment," the official told us.
- "We estimate half of these units are already near Ukraine’s border."
- On the information warfare front, U.S. intelligence "indicates Russian influence proxies and media outlets have started to increase content denigrating Ukraine and NATO."
The bottom line: Putin has already achieved a substantial return on investment for his expensive whole-of-government operation to prepare for an invasion.
- He's induced a state of panic inside Ukraine ... destabilized an already politically weakened leader in Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky ... and forced the West to scramble to figure out how to deter him — and whether to ultimately offer Putin concessions on his Ukrainian territorial ambitions.
Go deeper: On "Axios on HBO," Jonathan Swan presses NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg on whether the alliance would do anything meaningful to defend Ukraine.
12. Beijing hosts international democracy forum calling for upholding common values
Is imitation the sincerest form of flattery? Is China trying to compete with the US? One-Upmanship? Is China worried about solidarity among democratic countries?
Excerpts:
Democracy is a common value shared by all humanity, and an important indicator of progress in human civilization, Huang Kunming, a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and head of the Publicity Department of the CPC Central Committee, said during his keynote speech at the forum.
The official shared his insights into China's democratic values and concrete practices.
...
Speaking of the common values of mankind, he believes that peaceful coexistence is the most fundamental principle.
"Harmony" is something that Chinese culture has taught us, Frei said, noting that it is also a very important common value.
I think the "harmony" China seeks is one where countries are in harmony with Chinese views and follows China's lead.
I see no evidence to counter my thesis: China seeks to export its authoritarian political system around the world in order to dominate regions, co-opt or coerce international organizations, create economic conditions favorable to China alone, and displace democratic institutions.
Beijing hosts international democracy forum calling for upholding common values- China.org.cn
The opening ceremony of the International Forum on Democracy: the Shared Human Values, in Beijing, Dec. 4, 2021. [Photo by Yang Jia/China.org.cn]
An international forum themed "Democracy: the Shared Human Values" kicked off in Beijing on Dec. 4 to explore the essence, history, current state and development of democracy, and call for the upholding of common values.
Organized in a hybrid format, both in-person and virtual, the forum brought together over 500 participants including former leaders of government, scholars and experts from research centers, universities and the media, as well as heads of international organizations, from over 120 countries and regions around the world.
Democracy is a common value shared by all humanity, and an important indicator of progress in human civilization, Huang Kunming, a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and head of the Publicity Department of the CPC Central Committee, said during his keynote speech at the forum.
The official shared his insights into China's democratic values and concrete practices.
The people's status as masters of the country is the essence of China's democracy, Huang said, adding that practice has proved whole-process people's democracy is a true democracy that works.
Reiterating that there is no one-size-fits-all model for democracy, Huang said the CPC and the Chinese people are willing to work together with all other peoples around the world to carry forward the common values of humanity and advance towards a global community of shared future together.
Yukio Hatoyama, former Japanese prime minister, said that the essence of diplomacy is to explore how well countries with different values can get along.
Many countries today try to escape the chaos in their own countries caused by their own values by attacking the values of others, which is a wrong action, Hatoyama said, noting that common values and mindsets should be upheld.
Although countries have different social systems, it is necessary to focus on the shared values such as peaceful development, fairness and justice, democracy and freedom, he said.
He added that the concept of a global community of shared future and the idea of fraternity should be promoted to the world and translated into practice.
Eduardo Frei Ruiz-Tagle, Chile's former president (1994-2000), also stressed the importance of respecting other countries' values.
Frei said that the diversity of democratic systems should be cherished, and democracy requires inclusiveness, mutual understanding and seeking common development in diversity.
Speaking of the common values of mankind, he believes that peaceful coexistence is the most fundamental principle.
"Harmony" is something that Chinese culture has taught us, Frei said, noting that it is also a very important common value.
During the event, participants exchanged views on democracy around six specific topics: pluralistic origins of democracy, ultimate values of democracy, effective principles of democracy, the realization form of democracy, democracy and people's all-round development, and China's view of democracy.
The forum, which seeks to promote exchanges and dialogue on democracy across the globe, is being held in three phases, from Dec. 4-5, Dec. 9-10 and Dec. 14-15, respectively.
The event was hosted by the Publicity Department of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council Information Office, and co-organized by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, China Media Group and China International Publishing Group.
Earlier the same day, China's State Council Information Office released a white paper titled "China: Democracy That Works," expounding on China's whole-process people's democracy under CPC leadership.
China's whole-process people's democracy is a model of socialist democracy that covers all aspects of the democratic process and all sectors of society, and is a true democracy that works, the white paper noted.
13. How Taliban Have Used US Media against the US to Further Their Afghan Agenda
Seems like almost every non-state violent actor and revisionist and rogue power is media savvy. Are we savvy enough to compete?
How Taliban Have Used US Media against the US to Further Their Afghan Agenda
Like most other radical Islamist terrorist organizations such as the Islamic State and the Al Qaeda, the Taliban too seek to overturn the West and in particular the US.
August 31, 2021 marked the end of a two-decade-old war by the US in Afghanistan. The US went to war in Afghanistan seeking to go after the Taliban for giving refuge to Al Qaeda, the mastermind terrorist organization responsible for the dastardly 9/11 attacks. The attacks on the iconic World Trade Center claimed close to 3,000 lives. For the West, in particular the US, even after two decades, the objective of going to war in Afghanistan is still uncertain: Was it to fight terrorism? Was it for nation building?
But as questions persist, it is important to focus on the new leadership in Afghanistan: the Taliban, their government and how effectively or not they have managed to communicate and thereby hone their public diplomacy orientations. The Taliban seek legitimacy. This is aimed at establishing diplomatic relations, communications strategy, investment and trade. These are key for the regime to stay in power.
Can bad actors like the Taliban use strategic communication skills as a subset of public diplomacy? This question came to fore when a Taliban leader wrote an Op-ed in The New York Times in 2020. Prior to this, in early 2000s, Voice of America ran an interview with Taliban’s leader Mullah Omar, which was subsequently pulled down after objections from then US administration. The interview was conducted in Pashtu, this was Taliban’s foremost media engagement in which he explained that America has taken the entire Islamic world ‘hostage’.
The Taliban and Social Media
The Taliban have been proactive on social media, aiming to enhance and broaden their image. The Taliban have used the technology of the West to communicate its message—of the West being ‘intolerant, vicious and bent on revenge’.
Be it Facebook, Twitter, Instagram or group chats on WhatsApp and Telegram, the Taliban and their supporters have been successful in tapping into these networks to communicate their message. The Taliban’s objective has been to use these international platforms, especially of the US, against the US and to build international following.
Clearly, their messaging and push on social media was and is international. The targeted strategy on social media is aimed at reaching Afghans living abroad and potential supporters, especially those sceptical of Western powers.
By 2011, according to Brookings Institution, the Taliban were on Twitter, and by 2014 on Telegram. By 2019, the Taliban had learned to trend hashtags on Twitter.
Like most other radical Islamist terrorist organizations such as the Islamic State and the Al Qaeda, the Taliban too seek to overturn the West and in particular the US, using western communication technologies, such as Twitter.
In his 2016 book, ‘The Taliban’s Virtual Emirate: The Culture and Psychology of an Online Militant Community’, Neil Krishan Aggarwal argued that the Taliban used the internet to great advantage ‘in transforming individual and community identities through deliberate ways of self-presentation, social positioning, and relating to others that realize and reflect cultural change’.
In any disinformation campaign, a credible strategy is to to be part of the communication platforms of the enemy and use it to communicate what one is known for. Clearly, the Taliban seem to have understood that in order to defeat the US in its information strategy, it has to know the platform, especially when it comes to communication strategies.
It is pertinent to also note that it incumbent on the US’ communication and technology platforms whether they would allow such organizations to thrive on their space, especially when the Taliban have denied basic human rights and women-led education in the past.
Taliban and Mainstream Media
In public diplomacy, mainstream media plays a pivotal role in communication. On February 20, 2020, readers globally were in for a shock when Sirajuddin Haqqani’s piece appeared in The New York Times, headlined ‘What We, The Taliban, Want’. Haqqani is the current interior minister in Afghanistan under the Taliban regime and is also on the most wanted list of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). He is wanted in connection with the January 2008 attack on a hotel in Kabul, Afghanistan, that killed six people, including an American.
The article was published at a time when the peace agreement with the US was at a threshold of being signed. The reason why The New York Times gave space to the deputy leader of the Taliban is not known. One thing was for certain, the Taliban sought to communicate internationally, seek support and give a sneak peek into what was expected under their rule.
Widespread criticism ensued and answers were sought regarding why The New York Times went ahead with publishing Haqqani’s piece despite him being on the FBI’s most wanted list and knowing the Taliban’s antecedents. On the other hand, for the Taliban, the piece presented an opportunity.
Two things made the article particularly striking. One was its language, which seemed far more like that of a western think-tanker than a Talib—even though the author was identified as the deputy leader of the Taliban. The other was the specific background of the author. Haqqani, at the time the article appeared, was also identified on the website of the FBI as a ‘specially designated global terrorist’, with a US $10 million reward on offer for information leading directly to his arrest. That the Taliban movement succeeded in placing a propaganda article by a wanted terrorist on the opinion page of one of the most reputable news publications in the US pointed to an approach to public diplomacy that, in its sophistication and guile, far exceeded anything that the movement had been capable of achieving when it occupied Kabul from 1996-2001.
In his piece, Haqqani came out with a detailed roadmap for the future of Afghanistan. “It is important that no one front-loads this process with predetermined outcomes and preconditions. We are committed to working with other parties in a consultative manner of genuine respect to agree on a new, inclusive political system in which the voice of every Afghan is reflected and where no Afghan feels excluded,” he wrote in the piece.
Haqqani also used this opportunity to assure the international audience that Afghanistan will not be used as a battleground anymore and that the country will be known as a ‘bastion of stability’, signaling an agreement with the United States.
John Allen, the President of Brookings Institution, was scathing in his criticism to publish Haqqani’s piece. In his words, ‘This individual is a cold-blooded killer and terrorist, with the deaths of thousands of Afghans and the blood of hundreds of American and Coalition servicemen and women on his hands. His purported desire for peace and reconciliation in Afghanistan does not signal some peacemaking epiphany or political rehabilitation on his part, nor for the terrorists that he leads. He does not deserve a platform, especially one as legitimizing as The New York Times, and the decision to feature him should be roundly condemned.’
Thomas H. Johnson in his 2017 book ‘Taliban Narratives: The Use and Power of Stories in the Afghanistan Conflict’ writes that the Taliban’s communications strategy has had religious, political and cultural dimensions, and these were aimed to target audiences in Afghanistan that were broadly categorized as sympathetic, unaligned or unsympathetic. As time went by, the Taliban also sought increasingly to pitch their messages to the wider world, although their ability to do so was significantly constrained by ongoing sanctions regimes. This, however, changed from 2018 when the US moved to engage with the Taliban, and from that point, Western elite audiences figured much more prominently on the list of those targeted by Taliban propaganda.
The Taliban’s communications strategy has evolved over time. After occupying Kabul in 1996, the Taliban took some steps to expand their media footprint, their ‘Voice of Sharia Radio’ being one such outlet. While they secured international recognition through United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, this particular initiative did not yield them the results that they wanted.
It was only after 2001 that they began to take concrete initiatives, and their methods were more diverse. These included magazines and hardcopy publications; ‘night letters’ (texts posted or circulated surreptitiously, often containing warnings or threats); and even a propagandistic ‘code of conduct’ that allegedly asked Taliban combatants to follow a set of rules in the context of armed conflict. Beyond these, the Taliban ventured actively into the evolving world of electronic communications post-2001. The Taliban also broadcasted in Pashto and Dari. In addition, they also put to use videos where ‘multimodal and cinematographic techniques and use of sounds and visual modes vary depending on the strategic theme’. This enabled them to expand their presence domestically, regionally and globally.
The Future
Even in diplomacy, after coming to power, the Taliban have sought engagement with countries that have not left Afghanistan in the turmoil that ensued with the US exit. Take the case of China; they hosted the Taliban’s Qatar negotiating delegation and also sent teams to understand more about the economic situation in the country. China could exploit Afghanistan’s mineral deposits while promising to build factories, power plants and roads.
Pakistan too seeks to bat with the current Taliban regime. In his speech at the United Nations General Assembly, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan said, “There is only one way to go. We must strengthen and stabilize the current government, for the sake of the people of Afghanistan.” He struck a similar note in a Washington Post op-ed. No other country has made such an outward pitch for Afghanistan, especially for engagement with the Taliban. Russia has come forward to seize the moment and praise the Taliban despite its past.
India, which has made investments in Afghanistan to the tune of US $3 billion, faces a number of challenges, logistical and geopolitical. In the short run, it has to ensure the safety of its assets, and has managed to evacuate all embassy staff and nationals who were present there. New Delhi has clearly stated that it has opened a back channel and would safeguard its interests.
India recently hosted a Moscow format of dialogue called the ‘Delhi Regional Security Dialogue’ where it had invited relevant stakeholder countries such as those in Central Asia and Russia and Iran to participate in discussions on the future of Afghanistan.
Iran remains another strategically important country in the scheme of things and has hosted two rounds of the same format of dialogue in 2018 and 2019 right since the time the US announced that it would be withdrawing its troops from Afghanistan.
The Taliban have used propaganda through social media and mainstream media and advanced their diplomatic outreach to countries resonating with their cause. To counter this, effective public diplomacy strategy must be deployed by the US. Tara Sonenshine, who headed public diplomacy affairs in the US, has detailed several suggestions to this effect. She reiterates the need for the US administration to communicate exactly what went wrong in Afghanistan and that it will be there to fight terrorism in the days to come.
The US has its task cut out to enable and enhance its good public diplomacy in the country. It is also incumbent on other countries in the region to be aware of how bad actors like the Taliban have used public diplomacy to advance their goals. To counter this, countries will have to come up with their own public diplomacy strategy to counter Taliban’s misinformation campaign.
There are no signs or messages from the Taliban to suggest any change in their ideology. The hardline interim government illustrates this.
The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken had said, “The military mission is over. A new diplomatic mission has begun.” President Joe Biden took the idea even further in his remarks, laying out an expansive set of economic, security and human rights goals for US diplomacy in Afghanistan. He said the way to achieve them “is not through endless military deployments, but through diplomacy, economic tools and rallying the rest of the world”.
The world is now on a wait-and-watch mode—as bad actors such as the Taliban hone their public diplomacy skills—to see how leading democratic powers will respond to the challenge.
Sudarshan Ramabadran is author, researcher and currently studying at University of Southern California, Los Angeles. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the stand of this publication.
14. Why the US Navy Wants More Aircraft Carriers
Why the US Navy Wants More Aircraft Carriers
Following a multinational naval exercise in October involving two US aircraft carriers, a British carrier, and a Japanese helicopter carrier, the US Navy linked up with Japan, Australia, Canada, and Germany in November for Pacific drills.
During that most recent exercise, 7th Fleet’s Vice Adm. Karl Thomas called the joint force “an incredible amount of power” but noted that more would be better to send a message to potential adversaries that “today is not the day” to start a fight, WSJ reported.
Thinking “about how we might fight, it’s a large water space, and four aircraft carriers is a good number, but six, seven or eight would be better,” the fleet commander said.
The US Navy has a large fleet of just under a dozen nuclear-powered aircraft carriers but does not deploy them all at once or in large numbers to any one region.
Augmenting the US carrier force are amphibious assault ships armed with short takeoff/vertical landing variants of the stealth F-35 jet, as well as the carrier capabilities of partner nations.
US aircraft carriers have the ability to bring significant combat power to a fight and have long served as important power projection assets, but China, as a major Pacific power, is attempting to develop the capabilities to take these assets out of the fight.
The expectation is that the mock-ups discovered in the desert will be used for practicing missile strikes against naval assets.
While China, through an anti-access/area-denial strategy, is working to limit the ability of US carriers to fight close to its shores, the country is also building its own carrier force.
China currently has two carriers. The Liaoning was built using the hull of an older Soviet vessel, and the Shandong is a Chinese-built copy of that first ship with some upgrades.
A third aircraft carrier is in the works though and could be ready to launch in the coming months, according to analysts. China’s new aircraft carrier appears to be a larger, more modern vessel equipped with catapults and other improvements.
Experts have said that when this carrier “eventually enters service, it will be a formidable addition to China’s navy and allow it to more effectively project power.”
China has the world’s largest navy and an extremely robust shipbuilding capacity, according to US military assessments, and the US and others have repeatedly raised concerns that it may choose to use its growing military might to aggressively pursue its interests in the region. The US and its partners have a number of concerns about Russia as well.
Commenting on the recent joint exercises with US allies and partners, Thomas said that such drills are necessary to “deter aggression from some of these nations that are showing burgeoning strength” and to “tell these nations that maybe today is not the day.”
Ryan Pickrell is a senior military and defense reporter at Business Insider, where he covers defense-related issues from Washington, DC.
15. On Syria’s Ruins, a Drug Empire Flourishes
On Syria’s Ruins, a Drug Empire Flourishes
Dec. 5, 2021
Updated 10:37 a.m. ET
Powerful associates of Syria’s president, Bashar al-Assad, are making and selling captagon, an illegal amphetamine, creating a new narcostate on the Mediterranean.
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Italian law enforcement officers seized 14 tons of captagon, about 84 million pills, at the port of Salerno last year. Credit...Ciro Fusco/EPA, via Shutterstock
Dec. 5, 2021, 5:00 a.m. ET
BEIRUT, Lebanon — Built on the ashes of 10 years of war in Syria, an illegal drug industry run by powerful associates and relatives of President Bashar al-Assad has grown into a multi-billion-dollar operation, eclipsing Syria’s legal exports and turning the country into the world’s newest narcostate.
Its flagship product is captagon, an illegal, addictive amphetamine popular in Saudi Arabia and other Arab states. Its operations stretch across Syria, including workshops that manufacture the pills, packing plants where they are concealed for export, and smuggling networks to spirit them to markets abroad.
An investigation by The New York Times found that much of the production and distribution is overseen by the Fourth Armored Division of the Syrian army, an elite unit commanded by Maher al-Assad, the president’s younger brother and one of Syria’s most powerful men.
Major players also include businessmen with close ties to the government, the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, and other members of the president’s extended family, whose last name ensures protection for illegal activities, according to The Times investigation, which is based on information from law enforcement officials in 10 countries and dozens of interviews with international and regional drug experts, Syrians with knowledge of the drug trade and current and former United States officials.
The drug trade emerged in the ruins of a decade of war, which shattered Syria’s economy, reduced most of its people to poverty and left members of Syria’s military, political and business elite looking for new ways to earn hard currency and circumvent American economic sanctions.
Illicit speed is now the country’s most valuable export, far surpassing its legal products, according to a database compiled by The Times of global captagon busts.
In recent years, the authorities in Greece, Italy, Saudi Arabia and elsewhere have seized hundreds of millions of pills, most of them originating from one government-controlled port in Syria, some in hauls whose street value could exceed $1 billion, according to law enforcement officials.
Where captagon has been seized since 2016
Officials in Italy found 84 million pills hidden in huge rolls of paper and metal gears last year. Malaysian officials discovered more than 94 million pills sealed inside rubber trolley wheels in March.
These seizures likely represent only a fraction of the drugs shipped, drug experts say. But they provide a window into the scope of the trade, suggesting that the industry has exploded in recent years.
More than 250 million captagon pills have been seized across the globe so far this year, more than 18 times the amount captured just four years ago.
The number of captagon busts has increased each year
Even more concerning to governments in the region, the Syrian network built to smuggle captagon has begun to move more dangerous drugs, like crystal meth, regional security officials say.
The biggest obstacle in combating the trade, officials said, is that it has the backing of a state that has little reason to help shut it down.
“The idea of going to the Syrian government to ask about cooperation is just absurd,” said Joel Rayburn, the U.S. special envoy for Syria during the Trump administration. “It is literally the Syrian government that is exporting the drugs. It is not like they are looking the other way while drug cartels do their thing. They are the drug cartel.”
A poster of President Bashar al-Assad on a destroyed shopping mall in Homs in 2014. He has presided over a decade-long civil war.Credit...Sergey Ponomarev for The New York Times
The Rise of a Narcostate
Captagon was originally manufactured by a German pharmaceutical company as a stimulant to treat attention deficit disorder and narcolepsy. In the 1980s, users in Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf states started taking it recreationally to get an energy boost, banish fear and stay awake to study for exams, work, party or drive long distances.
Its white pills were stamped with two crescents, giving it the Arabic nickname “abu hilalain,” or “the one with two moons.”
After it was found to be addictive, it was banned internationally in the late 1980s. But to continue feeding the Gulf market, illicit captagon production took off, including in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley, a hub of hashish production and a stronghold of Hezbollah, an Iran-backed militant group that is now part of Lebanon’s government.
While the pharmaceutical Captagon contained the amphetamine fenethylline, the illicit version sold today, often referred to as “captagon” with a lowercase c, usually contains a mix of amphetamines, caffeine and various fillers. Cheap versions retail for less than a dollar a pill in Syria, while higher quality pills can sell for $14 or more apiece in Saudi Arabia.
After the Syrian war broke out, smugglers took advantage of the chaos to sell the drug to fighters on all sides, who took it to bolster their courage in battle. Enterprising Syrians, working with local pharmacists and machinery from disused pharmaceutical factories, began making it.
Syria had the needed components: experts to mix drugs, factories to make products to conceal the pills, access to Mediterranean shipping lanes and established smuggling routes to Jordan, Lebanon and Iraq.
As the war dragged on, the country’s economy fell apart and a growing number of Mr. al-Assad’s associates were targeted with international sanctions. Some of them invested in captagon, and a state-linked cartel developed, bringing together military officers, militia leaders, traders whose businesses had boomed during the war and relatives of Mr. al-Assad.
Captagon labs are scattered across government-held parts of Syria, according to Syrians in areas where the drugs are produced — in territory controlled by Hezbollah near the Lebanese border; outside the capital, Damascus; and around the port city of Latakia.
Many of the factories are small, in metal hangars or empty villas, where workers combine the chemicals with mixers and press them into pills with simple machines, according to two Syrians who have visited them. Soldiers guard some facilities. Others bear signs declaring them closed military zones.
The finished pills are hidden in false bottoms in shipping containers; packages of milk, tea and soap; and shipments of grapes, oranges or pomegranates. Then they are smuggled overland to Jordan and Lebanon, where some leave via Beirut’s air and seaports. The largest portion leave Syria from the Mediterranean port of Latakia.
The security bureau of the Fourth Division, headed by Maj. Gen. Ghassan Bilal, provides much of the network’s nervous system. According to regional security officials and a former Syrian military officer, the bureau’s troops protect many of the factories and ease the movement of drugs to Syria’s borders and the port.
“The division’s presence in the region is dangerous,” said Col. Hassan Alqudah, the head of the narcotics department for Jordan’s Public Security Directorate. “Captagon factories are present in the Fourth Division’s areas of control and under their protection.”
Maher al-Assad and General Bilal could not be reached for comment. Officials from the Syrian Information Ministry and its diplomatic mission in Vienna did not respond to requests for comment. The leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, has denied that his group has anything to do with captagon.
Maher al-Assad, center, with his brother President Bashar al-Assad, right, in 2000.Credit...Khaled al-Hariri/Reuters
Other prominent Syrians participate in the business.
A key player near Damascus is Amer Khiti, a businessman whose rise is emblematic of Syria’s new wartime business class, according to former U.S. officials and Syrians with knowledge of the drug trade.
Originally a modest livestock trader, Mr. Khiti became a smuggler during the war, spiriting food and other goods between Damascus and the rebel-held suburbs with the support of the state, according to Sami Adel, an activist from Mr. Khiti’s hometown who has tracked his career.
As the rebels were routed from the suburbs, he bought up real estate there and invested in packaging facilities that are used for smuggling.
Another wartime rags-to-riches figure is Khodr Taha, a one-time poultry merchant who oversees Fourth Division checkpoints across the country, where he facilitates the movement of captagon, according to regional security officials and Syrians with knowledge of the drug trade.
Mr. Khiti did not respond to requests for comment and efforts to reach Mr. Taha through companies he owns were unsuccessful.
Both men gave back to the government by spending lavishly on banquets, billboards, rallies and concerts in support of Mr. al-Assad’s presidential bid this year.
Two officials involved in the captagon trade financed campaign rallies for Mr. al-Assad.Credit...Hassan Ammar/Associated Press
Mr. Khiti also paid to refurbish a military conscription center and other government buildings that had been damaged in the war, and last year won a seat in Syria’s rubber-stamp Parliament.
In May, Mr. al-Assad awarded Mr. Taha the Order of Merit, “in recognition of his prominent services in economics and financial management during a time of war.”
The United States has imposed sanctions on Bashar and Maher al-Assad, General Bilal, Mr. Khiti and Mr. Taha. It called Mr. Taha an intermediary for the Fourth Division whose businesses “generate revenue for the regime and its supporters.”
Captagon is still produced in and smuggled through Lebanon. Nouh Zaiter, a Lebanese drug lord who now lives mostly in Syria, links the Lebanese and Syrian sides of the business, according to regional security officials and Syrians with knowledge of the drug trade.
A tall, longhaired Bekaa Valley native, Mr. Zaiter was sentenced in absentia to life in prison with hard labor by a Lebanese military court this year for drug crimes.
Reached by phone, Mr. Zaiter said his business was hashish and denied that he had ever been involved with captagon.
“I have not and will never send such poisons to Saudi Arabia or anywhere else,” he said. “Even my worst enemy, I won’t provide him with captagon.”
Captagon has probably become Syria’s most important source of foreign currency, according to Jihad Yazigi, the editor of The Syria Report, a publication that tracks Syria’s economy.
“That does not mean that the revenues earned are going back into the economy,” he said. “They are mostly being invested in the bank accounts of smugglers and warlords.”
More than five tons of captagon was seized in Piraeus, Greece, in 2019.Credit...Kostas Tsironis/EPA, via Shutterstock
A Booming Business
So little is known about captagon outside of the Middle East that law enforcement agencies in other regions don’t always recognize the drug when they find it.
And the smugglers employ ever-changing methods to hide the drugs and transport them via circuitous routes to conceal their origin.
Since 2015, authorities have found captagon in the private jet of a Saudi prince, hidden in oil filters for trucks and machines for making tiles, mixed in with shipments of grapes and oranges, and stuffed inside plastic potatoes hidden in a shipment of real potatoes. Smugglers have buried the drugs with coffee and spices to confuse sniffer dogs and sealed them inside of lead bars and giant rocks to block scanners.
The drugs have been seized in Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan, in the ports of Egypt, Greece and Italy, in an airport in France and as far away as Germany, Romania and Malaysia. Most of those countries are not significant markets for the drug but are merely decoy stops en route to the Gulf.
In May, after Saudi authorities discovered more than five million pills hidden inside hollowed out pomegranates shipped from Beirut, they banned produce from Lebanon, a major blow to local farmers.
According to The Times’ database, the number of pills seized has increased every year since 2017.
The street value of the drugs seized has outstripped the value of Syria’s legal exports, mostly agricultural products, every year since 2019.
Last year, global captagon seizures had a street value of about$2.9 billion, more than triple Syria’s legal exports of $860 million.
Law enforcement agencies have struggled to catch the smugglers, not least because the Syrian authorities offer little if any information about shipments that originated in their country.
The name of shippers listed on manifests are usually fake and searches for the intended recipients often lead to mazes of shell companies.
The Italian seizure of 84 million pills in Salerno last year, the largest captagon bust ever at the time, had come from Latakia. Shipping documents listed the sender as Basil al-Shagri Bin Jamal, but the Italian authorities were unable to find him.
Phone calls, text messages and emails to the company received no response, and the wealth management firm that the company listed as its mailing address, SMC Family Office SA, declined to comment.
Greek investigators have hit similar roadblocks.
In June 2019, workers in Piraeus found five tons of captagon, worth hundreds of millions of dollars, inside sheets of fiberboard on their way to China.
A drug sniffing dog and its handler with bags of captagon tablets at a news conference in Athens after the Piraeus bust in 2019. Credit...Kostas Tsironis/EPA, via Shutterstock
The fiberboard was branded as Quick Click, a company with no online profile, if it exists at all.
Official documents said the goods were bound for a Chinese company, Shenzhen Xiang Sheng Li Trade Co Ltd. Messages sent to an email address associated with the company received no response.
The documents also listed a customs broker using the name Trista at Seehog, a Chinese logistics firm. When reached by phone, she denied knowing anything about the shipment and refused to answer questions.
“You are not the police,” she said, and hung up.
There was one more clue in the documents: The sender was Mohammed Amer al-Dakak, with a Syrian phone number. When entered into WhatsApp, the phone number showed a photo of Maher al-Assad, the commander of Syria’s Fourth Armored Division, suggesting the number belonged to, at least, one of his fans.
A man who answered that number said that he was not Mr. al-Dakak. He said that he had acquired the phone number recently.
Loukas Danabasis, the head of the narcotics unit of Greece’s financial crime squad, said the smugglers’ tactics made solving such cases “difficult and sometimes impossible.”
The Syria-Jordan border last month. Drugs are smuggled overland via Jordan, but increasingly they are being consumed in Jordan.
Spilling Into Jordan
While officials in Europe struggle to identify smugglers, Jordan, one of the United States’ closest partners in the Middle East, sits on the front lines of a regional drug war.
“Jordan is the gateway to the Gulf,” Brig. Gen. Ahmad al-Sarhan, the commander of an army unit along Jordan’s border with Syria, said during a visit to the area.
Overlooking a deep valley with views of Syria, General al-Sarhan and his men detailed Syrian smugglers’ tricks to bring drugs into Jordan: They launch crossing attempts at multiple spots. They attach drugs to drones and fly them across. They load drugs onto donkeys trained to cross by themselves.
Sometimes the smugglers stop by Syrian army posts before approaching the border.
“There is clear involvement,” General al-Sarhan said.
The drug trade worries Jordanian officials for many reasons.
The quantities are increasing. The number of Captagon pills seized in Jordan this year is nearly double the amount seized in 2020, according to Colonel Alqudah, the head of the narcotics department.
And while Jordan was originally just a pathway to Saudi Arabia, as much as one-fifth of the drugs smuggled in from Syria are now consumed in Jordan, he estimated. The increased supply has lowered the price, making it easy for students to become addicted.
Even more worrying, he said, is the growing quantity of crystal meth entering Jordan from Syria, which poses a greater threat. As of October, Jordan had seized 132 pounds of it this year, up from 44 pounds the year before.
“We are now in a dangerous stage because we can’t go back,” said Dr. Morad al-Ayasrah, a Jordanian psychiatrist who treats drug addicts. “We are going forward and the drugs are increasing.”
Reporting was contributed by Niki Kitsantonis in Athens; Gaia Pianigiani in Rome; Kit Gillet in Bucharest, Romania; Hannah Beech in Bangkok; and employees of The New York Times in Damascus, Syria, and Beirut, Lebanon.
16. Myanmar’s top general Min Aung Hlaing is strangling a democracy. What will the west do about it?
Excerpts:
Evidently, there’s no magic wand. No amount of talking, or Asia-Pacific “pivots”, can alter geopolitical realities. In the post-Iraq, post-Afghanistan, post-intervention age, western democracies instinctively reject risky hard-power options – such as arming Myanmar’s opposition – especially where China or Russia are concerned.
If the west cannot bring itself to guarantee Ukraine’s sovereign democracy, struggling for air on its doorstep, what hope has Myanmar?
Min Aung Hlaing surely understands this. On Monday , a military-directed court is expected to sentence Aung San Suu Kyi, Myanmar’s elected leader, to jail on trumped-up charges.
This smirking defiance, this gross injustice – this affront to democracy – is dismaying and disgusting. Yet like countless other crimes committed daily in Myanmar, it will almost certainly go unpunished.
Myanmar’s top general Min Aung Hlaing is strangling a democracy. What will the west do about it?
Promoting democracy worldwide is an admirable ambition, unless of course you are a bloody-minded dictator and serial human rights abuser like Myanmar’s top general, Min Aung Hlaing. This coup leader and junta boss prefers brute force to ballot boxes.
While the US president, Joe Biden, hosts more than 100 countries at a virtual “summit for democracy” this week, Min Aung Hlaing and his Tatmadaw troops will be busy killing civilians for demanding democratic rights, launching merciless attacks on villagers they call “terrorists”.
The contrast between what the US state department says the summit aims to do – counter authoritarianism, fight corruption, promote human rights – and the international community’s inability to do any of that in Myanmar could not be starker. Hong Kong, Sudan, Iran, Nicaragua – there are numerous examples of countries where democracy has been subverted or extinguished. Yet Myanmar stands out.
After decades of repression, a democratic transition began in 2011. Progress was slow and imperfect. But there were elections and reforms. Political prisoners were released, free speech flourished.
Then up popped Min Aung Hlaing, a thuggish throwback in a neatly pressed uniform, determined to protect the military’s power base and corrupt business interests.
February’s coup, and the detention of elected leaders, led to huge street protests and increasing army violence. More than 1,100 people have since been killed and tens of thousands jailed or forced to flee. Armed resistance is growing, creating a many-fronted, Syria-like civil war.
Myanmar is a textbook case of an aspiring democracy crushed underfoot by a tyrant. It symbolises the global struggle for political pluralism, progressive values, and supposedly universal rights that the democracy summit hopes to advance. It is also a litmus test. Will Biden’s well-intentioned waffle-fest, as critics characterise it, make any real difference? If democracy’s champions cannot resolve an open-and-shut case such as Myanmar, they may as well abandon their Zoom session and switch to PlayStation.
Myanmar’s plight has exposed chronic weaknesses in an international, United Nations-based system that should, in theory, provide remedies.
Despite punitive media restrictions, resourceful local groups continue to report unfolding atrocities. Last week it emerged that thousands of civilians had fled deadly helicopter-led attacks in the Sagaing region, where villages have been set ablaze.
Sagaing is another rallying point for groups loosely allied to the multi-ethnic, anti-regime People’s Defence Force. Pro-democracy opposition politicians (and British MPs) back an alternative national unity government (NUG).
And yet despite all that is known about the criminal nature of Min Aung Hlaing’s dictatorship, despite multiple accounts of murder, rape, torture and mass displacement, Myanmar’s agony goes unchecked.
If the west cannot bring itself to guarantee Ukraine’s sovereign democracy, struggling for air on its doorstep, what hope has Myanmar?
The US and EU have imposed limited sanctions. Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser, pledged support for the NUG. The habitually timid Association of Southeast Asian Nations took the unusual step of excluding Min Aung Hlaing from its latest leaders’ meeting.
And a joint statement last week by the US, UK and others expressed “grave concern over reports of ongoing human rights violations... including sexual violence and torture”. But all this justified outrage will signify little or nothing unless Min Aung Hlaing and his henchmen are stopped in their tracks. Of that, sadly, there is precious little sign.
As analyst Annabelle Heugas of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation notes, the explanation lies close to hand. China, Myanmar’s self-styled “big brother”, has a strategic interest in keeping a lid on a country where it has invested heavily and which falls within its notional “sphere of influence”.
While not necessarily approving Min Aung Hlaing’s behaviour, Beijing’s provision of diplomatic cover and military hardware stems from pragmatic political and commercial calculations, Heugas wrote.
Myanmar’s other big neighbour, India, worries that ostracising the junta would be a gift to its Chinese rival, so bites its tongue. Russia just wants to sell guns to the generals – and still does, because the UN’s arms embargo proposal is non-binding.
Biden’s summit, and a face-to-face follow-up next year, will examine ways to boost democracy in places such as Myanmar. One rather limp suggestion is an international alliance to counter online disinformation.
Evidently, there’s no magic wand. No amount of talking, or Asia-Pacific “pivots”, can alter geopolitical realities. In the post-Iraq, post-Afghanistan, post-intervention age, western democracies instinctively reject risky hard-power options – such as arming Myanmar’s opposition – especially where China or Russia are concerned.
If the west cannot bring itself to guarantee Ukraine’s sovereign democracy, struggling for air on its doorstep, what hope has Myanmar?
Min Aung Hlaing surely understands this. On Monday , a military-directed court is expected to sentence Aung San Suu Kyi, Myanmar’s elected leader, to jail on trumped-up charges.
This smirking defiance, this gross injustice – this affront to democracy – is dismaying and disgusting. Yet like countless other crimes committed daily in Myanmar, it will almost certainly go unpunished.
17. Americans used to trust the military more than the rest of the government, but now even that’s fading
I see this more and more among veterans - looking at and assessing the military through the partisan lens.
Americans used to trust the military more than the rest of the government, but now even that’s fading
Americans are increasingly viewing the military — as an institution — through the lens of partisan politics.
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The survey found that the number of Americans who said they have a lot of confidence and trust in the military has dropped from 70% to 45% in just the past three years, and that includes a steep 11 percentage point drop since February, a Reagan Institute news release says.
Roughly 2,500 people took part in the survey, which was conducted between Oct. 25 and Nov. 7. The precipitous drop in Americans’ confidence in the military comes amid debates about how to deal with extremism in the ranks, criticisms from lawmakers that the military is becoming too “woke,” fierce arguments about whether troops should be required to get vaccinated for the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), and the fall of Afghanistan.
However, it’s clear that the survey is not a sign that Americans are turning against the troops. Of those respondents who said they have a “great deal” of confidence in the military, 29% cited troops and enlisted service members as their reason why they felt that way and 15% said their confidence stems from the military’s ability to keep them safe, according to data provided by the Reagan Institute.
“Affection for the rank and file has been a hallmark of the AVF [all-volunteer force] ever since the Reagan years – think his ‘The Boys of Pointe du Hoc’ speech and the revival of interest in the ‘greatest generation,’” said Peter Feaver, a political science professor at Duke University in North Carolina. “This survey shows that that still persists.”
It is more likely that the survey results indicate that Americans are increasingly viewing the military — as an institution — through the lens of partisan politics.
Gen. Joseph Martin, 37th Vice Chief of Staff of the U.S. Army, leads a reenlistment ceremony of 3rd Infantry Division Soldiers as they raise their right hands and volunteer to continue their Army service on Hunter Army Airfield, Georgia. (U.S. Army photo by Sgt. Andrew McNeil.)
Among the people who indicated they have a low degree of confidence in the U.S. military, 13% cited “political leadership” as a reason; 9% said “scandals/sexual assault/lies/cover-ups”; and 8% said they felt the military was too expensive and had the wrong priorities, according to the data. Another 15% provided other reasons that were not specified in the data and 8% said they didn’t know why they were not very confident in the military.
“The fact that ‘political leadership’ was the plurality response among those with low confidence (albeit only a 13% plurality) may be an indication of the corrosive effects of political polarization in the body politic generally bleeding over into attitudes towards the military,” Feaver said.
The survey indicates that Republicans in particular are losing confidence in the military. For the Reagan Institute’s 2018 survey, 87% of Republican respondents said they had a great deal of confidence in the military, compared with 53% in 2021.
Meanwhile, 59% of Democratic respondents and 66% of independents indicated in the 2018 survey that they had a great deal of confidence in the military. In the 2021 survey, those figures dropped to 42% and 38% respectively.
In the past year, the military and its top leaders have become ensnared in the toxic political environment that now permeates all levels of American society. Army Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has come under fire from both the political left and right.
Democrats have criticized Milley over the military’s inability to respond to the Jan. 6 Capitol Hill riots. Milley has also been extensively lambasted by Republicans and cable news pundits for saying he wants to understand “white rage” and for his portrayal in recent books about President Donald Trump’s administration, such as “Peril,” by Bob Woodward and Robert Acosta, which revealed that Milley assured his Chinese counterpart shortly before the 2020 presidential election that the United States was not about to launch a preemptive strike against China.
A U.S. Marine performs a routine radio check while standing security at Al Taqaddum Air Base, Iraq, Oct. 24, 2015. (U.S. Marine Corps photo by Sgt. Rick Hurtado/Released)
The Reagan Institute’s survey first noted a drop in confidence in the military in 2020, so this issue predates President Joe Biden’s administration, noted Kori Schake, a defense expert with the conservative American Enterprise Institute think tank in Washington, D.C.
“It looks to me like validation of Peter Feaver and Jim Golby’s research showing that the public begins to view the military the way they do the Supreme Court: apolitical when their behavior supports my beliefs, shamefully politicized when they don’t,” said Schake, who co-authored a book about the civil-military divide with retired Marine Gen. James Mattis.
Given how polarized the country is right now, it’s not surprising that the military’s reputation is taking a hit, just like all other government institutions, said Risa Brooks, a political science professor at Marquette University in Wisconsin.
An airman salutes the flag during a ceremony signifying the change from tactical to enduring operations at Camp Simba, Manda Bay, Kenya. (Staff Sgt. Lexie West/U.S. Air Force via AP)
Overall, the military appears to be doing well compared with other government institutions, she said.
“But I think that it’s important for the public to see the military as acting on behalf of all of them and as representing the country and the country’s national interests writ-large,” Brooks said. “So when you’re getting a circumstance in which the military is only popular with certain subsets of the population or only some people and some groups are expressing confidence in it, it starts to suggest that not everybody believes that the military is acting on behalf of the country as a whole. Ultimately, that’s going to affect the ability to mobilize and galvanize opinion to deal with the kinds of threats and challenges the country is facing.”
Retired Army Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling described the survey’s results as “understandable but unfortunate,” given how much politicians and others have maligned the military as an institution over the past decade.
“Add to that the constant drumbeat of ‘failure’ in wars (America wants a winner, no matter the complexity of the mission, and the faster the better, the hell with whether we truly understand the strategy or the requirements) certainly contributes as well,” said Hertling, the former commander of U.S. Army Europe.
With all of that said, the military has also contributed to the falling confidence by not always being transparent with Congress and the American people on issues including the conduct of wars and various scandals, he said.
“We need to ‘tell our story’ in a more succinct, understandable, transparent and relatable way to the majority of Americans who have not served, but who think they know what serving means and entails,” Hertling said.
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is the senior Pentagon reporter for Task & Purpose. He has covered the military for 15 years. You can email him at schogol@taskandpurpose.com, direct message @JeffSchogol on Twitter, or reach him on WhatsApp and Signal at 703-909-6488. Contact the author here.
18. When the Biggest Spenders Aren’t Coming Back Any Time Soon
I would imagine that China may have the largest number of tourists in the world.
Excerpts:
This was supposed to be the year travel came back. In Europe and Asia, many countries reopened their airports and welcomed tourists. But they are confronting a new reality: Variants such as Omicron are causing global panic, leading governments to shut borders again, and their biggest spenders — Chinese tourists — aren’t returning any time soon.
As part of its effort to maintain a zero-Covid approach, China has announced that international flights would be kept at 2.2 percent of pre-Covid levels during the winter. Since August, it has almost entirely stopped issuing new passports, and it has imposed a 14-day quarantine for all arrivals. Returning to China also requires mountains of paperwork and multiple Covid-19 tests.
Many people there have decided to just stay put.
When the Biggest Spenders Aren’t Coming Back Any Time Soon
Even before Omicron’s arrival, China was discouraging its citizens from traveling abroad. That has had a huge impact on global tourism.
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Chinese tourists in Prague’s city center in October 2019.Credit...Kasia Strek for The New York Times
Dec. 5, 2021, 5:00 a.m. ET
On Jeju Island in South Korea, the markets have gone dark. In Bangkok, bored hawkers wait around for customers who never come. In Bali, tour guides have been laid off. In Paris and Rome, the long lines of people with selfie sticks and sun hats are a distant memory.
This was supposed to be the year travel came back. In Europe and Asia, many countries reopened their airports and welcomed tourists. But they are confronting a new reality: Variants such as Omicron are causing global panic, leading governments to shut borders again, and their biggest spenders — Chinese tourists — aren’t returning any time soon.
As part of its effort to maintain a zero-Covid approach, China has announced that international flights would be kept at 2.2 percent of pre-Covid levels during the winter. Since August, it has almost entirely stopped issuing new passports, and it has imposed a 14-day quarantine for all arrivals. Returning to China also requires mountains of paperwork and multiple Covid-19 tests.
Many people there have decided to just stay put.
Rome, 2016: Chinese tourists in front of the Colosseum.Credit...Nadia Shira Cohen for The New York Times
A deserted Colosseum in March 2020.Credit...Alessandro Penso for The New York Times
No country has been more crucial to global travel in the past decade than China. Chinese tourists spent roughly $260 billion in 2019, exceeding all other nationalities. Their prolonged absence would mean travel revenues are unlikely to return to prepandemic levels soon. Analysts say it could take up to two years before China fully reopens.
Shopping malls have emptied out. Restaurants have shut down. Hotels are deserted.
The downturn is particularly affecting North and Southeast Asia. China is the No. 1 source of tourism in Asia for several large cities, according to Nihat Ercan, the head of investment sales for the Asia Pacific at JLL Hotels & Hospitality, an adviser to the hospitality industry.
Chinese tourists standing outside the Shanghai International Cruise Terminal before they embark onto the Royal Caribbean Cruise “Mariner of the Seas“ to South Korea, including Busan and Jeju Island, in 2013.Credit...Daniele Mattioli for The New York Times
In Bangkok’s Or Tor Kor fruit market, where masses of Chinese tourists would once gather around tables eating durian, business has ground to a halt. Phakamon Thadawatthanachok, a durian seller, said she used to keep 300 to 400 kilograms of the spiky fruit in stock and had to resupply them three to four times a week to keep up with the demand. Now, she had to take a loan just to make ends meet.
“The loss of income is immeasurable,” she said. “At the moment, we are only holding onto the hope that it will get better someday.”
In Vietnam, the pandemic has caused over 95 percent of tourism businesses to close or suspend operations, according to the government.
Chinese tourists visiting the Grand Palace in Bangkok in 2019.Credit...Diego Azubel/EPA, via Shutterstock
The Grand Palace, which once got about 22,000 tourists daily, was nearly empty in 2020.Credit...Amanda Mustard for The New York Times
Before the pandemic, Chinese visitors flocked to the beach towns of Da Nang and Nha Trang, accounting for around 32 percent of the total number of foreign tourists into the country.
“The service industry in this city has died,” said Truong Thiet Vu, director of a travel company in Nha Trang that is now shut down.
On the Indonesian island of Bali, many tourist agencies have either sold their vehicles or have had them confiscated by their leasing companies, according to Franky Budidarman, the owner of one of two major travel agencies on the island that caters to Chinese tourists.
Mr. Budidarman said he had to cut the salaries of his office workers by half and pivoted to running a food delivery service and a cafe. “I’m grateful that I have survived for two years now,” he said. “I sometimes wonder how I could have done this.”
For the places that catered to Chinese tourists who traveled in group packages, the loss has been especially stark. On Jeju Island, popular among Chinese visitors because they could enter without visas, the number of tourists arriving from China dropped more than 90 percent to 103,000 in 2020 from more than 1 million in 2019. From January to September of this year, that number was only about 5,000.
Looking over the Thames toward the London Eye in April 2020.Credit...Andrew Testa for The New York Times
As many as half of the duty-free shops catering to Chinese tourists in Jeju have closed, according to Hong Sukkyoun, a spokesman for the Jeju Tourism Association. At the Big Market Shopping Center, which used to sell island specialties like chocolate and crafts, all but three of 12 employees have been laid off, said An Younghoon, 33, who was among those who became jobless in July.
“When the virus began spreading, we all started counting our days down,” he said. “We knew there wasn’t going to be any business soon.”
Chinese visitors are less common in Europe, but they had emerged as an increasingly important market in recent years. At the Sherlock Holmes Museum in London, for example, about 1,000 people visited per day in its peak, and at least half of them were from China, said Paul Leharne, the museum’s supervisor.
Since its reopening on May 17, the museum has attracted only 10 percent of its usual numbers. This year, it opened an online store to sell merchandise and souvenirs, about a third of which is being shipped to China, he said.
Chinese tourists in Paris, 2018, outside the Louvre Museum.Credit...Philippe Wojazer/Reuters
The same spot, looking far different in December 2020.Credit...Dmitry Kostyukov for The New York Times
“We really feel their absence,” said Alfonsina Russo, the director of the Colosseum in Rome, referring to Chinese tourists.
Asian tourists, “especially from China,” made up around 40 percent of international visitors to the Colosseum in 2019, according to Ms. Russo. That year, the site had adjusted its panels and guides to include the Chinese language, along with English and Italian.
The number of international tourists arriving in Italy remains down 55 percent, compared with a Europe-wide drop of 48 percent, according to statistics issued in June by ENIT, the national tourism agency. In 2019, two million Chinese tourists visited Italy.
Their disappearance has dealt “a devastating blow” to some businesses that had invested in this particular group, said Fausto Palombelli, head of the tourism section of Unindustria, a business association in the Lazio region, which includes Rome.
Like so many other places, Rome had taken steps to cater to visitors from China. It taught its taxi drivers to thank its Chinese customers with a “xie xie,” or thank you in Mandarin. Its main airport, Fiumicino, offered a personal shopping service with no value-added tax to attract Chinese travelers, according to Raffaele Pasquini, head of marketing and business development at Aeroporti di Roma, the company that manages Fiumicino.
Chinese tourists in front of the Sydney Harbour Bridge, in Sydney, Australia, in January 2019.Credit...Matthew Abbott for The New York Times
In France, knowing that it may be months — possibly years — before Chinese tourists return, some are trying to keep a connection with potential customers.
Catherine Oden, who works for Atout France, the national institute in charge of promoting France as a tourist destination, said she had to familiarize herself with Chinese social media platforms such as Weibo and Douyin to live-stream virtual activities like French cooking lessons and tours of the Château de Chantilly.
“We want to be present in their minds,” she said. “So that once everything gets back to normal, they choose France as their first destination.”
In Paris, long lines of Chinese tourists snaking around the boutiques of the Champs-Élysées used to be a common sight. “Before the pandemic, we had four Chinese-speaking salespeople,” said Khaled Yesli, 28, the retail manager of a luxury boutique on the Champs-Élysées. “We only have one left, and no intention to recruit any more.”
Mr. Yesli said the store’s best-selling product was once a red and gold metal box containing macarons and hand creams that was designed purposely for Chinese tourists. But with sales lackluster in the pandemic, those boxes are now on the bottom shelf.
Chinese tourists arrive in Bali in January 2020.
Kuta Beach, Bali, in March 2020.Credit...Nyimas Laula for The New York Times
John Yoon, Dera Menra Sijabat, Vo Kieu Bao Uyen, Isabella Kwai and Amy Chang Chien contributed reporting.
19. The rescue of Parwana: 9-year-old child bride is taken to safety in Afghanistan
Conclusion:
For those fighting for women's rights in Afghan society, Parwana's determination to achieve a better future for herself and her country provides a glimmer of hope that the next generation of girls can overcome the lack of value placed on their lives.
The rescue of Parwana: 9-year-old child bride is taken to safety in Afghanistan
CNN · by Anna Coren, Rebecca Wright and Abdul Basir Bina, CNN
(CNN)Driving through a snow-capped mountain pass, the young mother huddles together with her six children in the backseat of a car after leaving their makeshift camp in northwestern Afghanistan.
Carrying only a blanket for warmth, 9-year-old Parwana Malik balances on her mother's lap beside her siblings, as the family is rescued by an aid group that saves girls from child marriage.
"I am really happy," Parwana said during the journey. "The (charity) rid me from my husband and my husband is old."
Last month, CNN reported that Parwana and several other underage girls were being sold by their fathers so other members of their families could eat.
At the time, Parwana's father Abdul Malik said she cried day and night before, begging him not to sell her, saying she wanted to go to school and study instead.
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After an international outcry as a result of CNN's story, Parwana was returned to her family due to the backlash from the community against the buyer.
The United States-based non-profit Too Young to Wed (TYTW) had also got involved to relocate the girls, their siblings and their mothers to a safe house.
"This is a temporary solution," said Stephanie Sinclair, the founder of TYTW. "(But) really what we're trying to do is prevent girls being sold into marriage."
Afghanistan under pressure
Afghanistan's economic lifelines have been severed since mid-August when the Taliban assumed control after American and allied forces departed. Billions of dollars in central bank assets have been frozen, banks are running out of cash and wages have gone unpaid for months.
Now, aid agencies and rights groups including Human Rights Watch are warning that the country's poorest people are facing a famine as the brutally cold winter takes hold.
More than half of the country's roughly 39 million population will face emergency levels of acute hunger by March, according to a recent report by IPC, which assesses food insecurity. The report estimates that more than 3 million children under the age of five are already suffering acute malnutrition.
"The international community is turning its back as the country teeters on the precipice of man-made catastrophe," said Dominik Stillhart, director of operations for the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), who just returned from a six-day visit to Afghanistan.
Even before the Taliban took over, hunger was rife in the impoverished country, and now young girls are paying the price with their bodies -- and their lives.
"Afghan young girls (are) becoming the price of food," leading Afghan women's rights activist Mahbouba Seraj told CNN. "Because otherwise their family will starve."
"Usually there is a lot of misery, there is a lot of mistreatment, there is a lot of abuse involved in these things"Mahbouba SerajWomen's rights activist
Even though marriage under the age of 15 is illegal nationwide, it has been commonly practiced for years, especially in more rural parts of Afghanistan. And the situation has deteriorated since August, as families become more desperate.
"Usually there is a lot of misery, there is a lot of mistreatment, there is a lot of abuse involved in these things," Seraj said, adding that some girls forced into marriage die during childbirth because their bodies are too small to cope. "Some of them can't take it. They mostly die pretty young."
Women have long been treated as second-class citizens in Afghanistan, which was ranked as the worst country in the world for women in the 2021 Women, Peace and Security Index.
And since the Taliban took over, many of the basic rights that women had fought for over the past two decades have been stripped away.
Limits have been imposed on girls' education, women are banned from certain workplaces and actresses can no longer appear in TV dramas.
Escape from servitude
After a four-hour journey through mountain roads, Parwana's family arrived late at night at a small hotel in Herat, Afghanistan's third largest city. They were escorted on their journey by a local representative of Too Young to Wed, along with the mother, Reza Gul, and her brother, Payinda.
CNN witnesses 9-year-old being sold for marriage to 55-year-old man 05:51
Reza Gul and Payinda told CNN Parwana's father had initiated her sale against their wishes. "Of course, I was angry, I fought him, and I cried," Reza Gul said. "He said that he didn't have any option."
CNN was given permission to film Parwana's sale on October 24 to a 55-year-old man with white hair for cash, sheep and land worth around $2,200 (200,000 Afghanis).
"My father has sold me because we don't have bread, rice and flour," Parwana told CNN at the time. "He has sold me to an old man."
The buyer, Qorban, told CNN it would be his "second marriage," and he insisted that Parwana would be treated kindly.
Parwana's mother said her daughter begged to return home to her family and was allowed a few visits back to their camp.
"She said that they beat her, and she didn't want to stay there," Reza Gul said.
"They treated me badly. They were cursing me. They were waking me up early and making me work"Parwana MalikFormer child bride
"They treated me badly, they were cursing me, they were waking me up early and making me work," Parwana added.
After the CNN story into Parwana's situation was published, the community outrage which the buyer Qorban received pushed him into hiding, according to the family. CNN has since been unable to reach him or his family for comment.
In a follow-up CNN interview, Parwana's father said he also came under criticism, and he felt pressured to change his story on the marriage in interviews with some local media outlets. He confirmed his original interview with CNN and apologized.
About two weeks after her sale, Parwana was returned to her family, but her father still owes the equivalent of $2,200 to the buyer. He had used the proceeds to pay off other debts.
'They gave me a new life'
Parwana and her five siblings were initially tired from the long drive and the sensory overload of the bright lights and traffic of the city. But once settled, they soon started rolling around and giggling together on the bed, enjoying their new adventure.
After two nights at the hotel, the family was transferred by Too Young to Wed's team to a nearby safe house -- Parwana's first experience of living in a real home. For the past four years, the family lived in a tent in a camp for internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Qala-e-Naw in Badghis province.
"I'm feeling so happy in this house," Parwana told CNN. "They gave me a new life."
"I feel happy and safe here," said Reza Gul. "My children are eating well since we came, they are playing, and we are feeling happy."
The family will stay in the house through the winter months and be supported and protected by TYTW, which routinely conducts this type of rescue.
The longer-term plan for Parwana's family is still unclear, Stephanie Sinclair of TYTW added, and will depend on funding for the shelter.
"It is a moral imperative that the international community does not abandon the women and girls of Afghanistan," Sinclair said. "Every life matters, and the lives that we can save (will) better the experience of their whole family and their community."
Separately, TYTW is also trying to deliver food aid into the Qala-e-Naw camp, which is home to around 150 people. This is also aimed at helping Parwana's father as he stays back there to try to work off his debt. He gave permission to TYTW to rehouse his wife and children.
"We are happy that Parwana is rescued," the father said before his family left. "We are happy that (TYTW) will help us and they will provide a place for living."
'Tip of the iceberg'
Families across Afghanistan are facing similar desperate financial situations.
CNN's report also profiled two families from Ghor Province in northwestern Afghanistan, who were preparing to sell their young daughters.
Magul, 10, was just days away from being sold into marriage when CNN's report was published. She had threatened to kill herself if the sale went through.
The sales of the girls are now on hold and TYTW is working to try to rescue them along with their mothers and siblings -- and relocate them to the same shelter where Parwana's family now lives.
Women's rights activists like Mahbouba Seraj, who runs a shelter for women and girls in Kabul, say the worst is still to come for the women of Afghanistan.
"This is just the beginning of it, this is really the tip of the iceberg," Seraj said. "It will keep on happening, with hunger, with winter, with poverty, with all of this ignorance."
A local Taliban leader told CNN that they are trying to end the illegal practice of child marriage.
Mawlawi Baz Mohammad Sarwary, the head of the Badghis information and cultural directorate, described the practice as "common" in the area due to extreme poverty.
Women's rights activist Mahbouba Seraj says the worst is still to come for the women of Afghanistan.
"Child marriage is not a good thing and we condemn it," said Sarwary. "Some are forced because they are poor."
He also appealed to international groups and governments to send aid to save families from starvation.
"We want their help for the Badghis people," Sarwary said. "We will provide them security; what we have we will coordinate with them and all of them are allowed to work."
Stillhart from the ICRC says governments need to release funding for Afghanistan urgently, to prevent hospitals and basic services from collapsing.
"I plead with the international community to find solutions that allow maintenance of these essential services," Stillhart told CNN. "That indeed requires (an) injection of liquidity and cash because (the) whole economy in Afghanistan has shrunk by a staggering 40% since the end of August, because of the suspension of bilateral aid."
Non-profit organizations still operating on the ground in Afghanistan are also calling for more coordinated action to help the country's poorest people.
At the local market in Herat, TYTW helped Parwana's family to gather kitchen supplies and food.
"We were awake every night due to hunger," Parwana's mother Reza Gul said. "Now we are happy this charity helped us and brought us to Herat."
Parwana, now freed from a life spent with a husband six times her age, is excited about the prospect of attending school.
"I would like to study to become a doctor," Parwana said. "I would like to study to serve my people."
For those fighting for women's rights in Afghan society, Parwana's determination to achieve a better future for herself and her country provides a glimmer of hope that the next generation of girls can overcome the lack of value placed on their lives.
CNN's Jessie Yeung and Jadyn Sham contributed reporting.
CNN · by Anna Coren, Rebecca Wright and Abdul Basir Bina, CNN
20. The inside story of how ISD crippled a terrorist network targeting Singapore after 9/11
Long interesting read.
IN FOCUS: The inside story of how ISD crippled a terrorist network targeting Singapore after 9/11
SINGAPORE: As the World Trade Center towers in New York came crashing down on Sep 11, 2001, officers of Singapore’s Internal Security Department (ISD) watched in horror.
Al-Qaeda and its leader Osama Bin Laden had claimed responsibility for the terrorist attack, and security agencies around the world scrambled to make sense of the implications for their countries.
“As a security agency, we were also taken by surprise, but at the same time, we also wanted to make sure that there is no imminent threat to Singapore, and that there is no Singaporean who is a part of this,” Rajah*, a senior operations officer with ISD, told CNA’s Insight programme.
In 2001, Rajah headed a team of operations officers that dismantled the Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) terrorist network in Singapore after uncovering multiple plots against targets here.
Photos from a reconnaissance mission on the water pipelines at Bukit Timah service reservoir and nature reserve. (Photo: Internal Security Department)
Photos from a reconnaissance mission at a PUB facility in Woodlands. (Photo: Internal Security Department)
The scale, audacity and intricacy of these plots – using explosives to attack US military personnel, bases and foreign embassies in Singapore – shocked ISD officers at the time.
Twenty years on, these well-developed plots remain Singapore’s closest shave with transnational Islamist terrorism to date, ISD said in a news release on Saturday (Dec 4).
The JI operatives in Singapore had been trained by terrorists in Afghanistan and the southern Philippines, and had received instructions and support from foreign Al-Qaeda operatives. This meant they had the skills and technical know-how to wreak havoc in Singapore.
“Had the group succeeded in their plans, there would have been catastrophic consequences, both in terms of physical loss of lives and damage to Singapore’s communal harmony and social fabric,” ISD said.
But in the aftermath of the 9/11 attack, Rajah, now in his mid-50s, said ISD was not aware of JI’s existence. The department reached out to the community, eager to address concerns, urge vigilance and appeal for any information that might connect Singaporeans to the attack.
THE TIP-OFF
It was during one of these community engagements, days after the 9/11 attack, that the department was tipped off.
This set the wheels in motion for an operation, between December 2001 and August 2002, that would lead to 56 people being detained under the Internal Security Act.
The tip off came from a “vigilant” Singaporean who had information on Mohammad Aslam Yar Ali Khan, ISD said. According to the informant, Aslam, a Singaporean of Pakistani descent, claimed to know Osama Bin Laden and said he had fought against the Soviets in Afghanistan.
“That set some alarm bells ringing in us, especially against the backdrop of 9/11. So, we were very concerned,” Rajah said.
Detailed sketches and notes of Yishun MRT and its vicinity found in Afghanistan. (Photo: Internal Security Department)
Detailed sketches and notes of Yishun MRT and its vicinity found in Afghanistan. (Photo: Internal Security Department)
Detailed sketches and notes of Yishun MRT and its vicinity found in Afghanistan. (Photo: Internal Security Department)
Detailed sketches and notes of Yishun MRT and its vicinity found in Afghanistan. (Photo: Internal Security Department)
ISD officers started to watch Aslam and his associates very closely.
On Oct 4, 2001, Aslam left Singapore on a flight to Pakistan, en route to Afghanistan. In the middle of that month, officers observed that Aslam’s close friend was in close contact with foreign terrorist elements and actively tried to buy ammonium nitrate, an explosive material.
The friend had also converted US dollars into local currency, later discovered to be payment for the reconnaissance of the US and Israeli embassies and other locations in Singapore as part of plans for an imminent attack.
“(This was) information that we put together and we were in the process of working out, mapping out the network of Aslam and associates, and how we want to execute our operation,” Rajah said.
Plots to attack Singapore
ISD’s investigation into the JI members revealed that their earliest plans to attack targets in Singapore date back to the mid-1990s, long before the events of 9/11. Preparations for these attacks, often against US targets, intensified after 9/11.
These are some of the more well-developed plots:
- In 1997, a Singapore JI member conceived a plan to attack a shuttle bus that transported US military personnel and their families in the Sembawang area to Yishun MRT station. The JI members drew up maps of the station and used a video-camera to film the station and its surroundings, paying special attention to areas where explosives could be placed.
- From the mid-1990s, Singapore JI members had considered attacking US naval vessels in Singapore. These plans were revived in early 2001 when two foreign operatives approached a Malaysian JI leader, who in turn approached Singapore JI members for information on US military vessels in Singapore.
- One JI member took over 50 photographs of Paya Lebar Airbase where he worked as a technician with Singapore Technology Aerospace Systems. These photographs were meant to support Jl’s plan for a potential terrorist attack against US aircraft.
- After 9/11, an Al-Qaeda operative approached Singapore JI members with a plan to use truck bombs to attack targets in Singapore, including the US and Israeli Embassies, the Australian and British High Commissions and commercial buildings housing US firms. Singapore JI members had already taken steps to get 17 tonnes of ammonium nitrate for the manufacture of the truck bombs when they were arrested in December 2001, near when the attacks were scheduled to take place.
Beyond US targets, one of the key JI leaders in the region was also keen to create chaos by carrying out attacks that implicated Singapore and Malaysia, believing that JI could then take advantage of the instability to overthrow the secular governments of both countries and establish an Islamic state.
Some of these plots are listed below:
- JI had planned to attack water pipelines between Singapore and Malaysia, including those at the Causeway. Reconnaissance was done on the PUB Woodlands Booster Station, Bukit Panjang Service Reservoir and the water pipeline at Bukit Timah Nature Reserve.
- JI had intended to debilitate Singapore’s infrastructure and economy by targeting Changi Airport and the radar station at Biggin Hill, which were surveyed on several occasions between 1999 and 2001. Between 2000 and 2001, two JI members who were working for the Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore (CAAS) and an international courier company were assigned to case Changi Airport. The CAAS employee conducted reconnaissance of secure areas within the airport and surveys of the control tower to assess the possibility of placing explosives there. The courier was able to obtain a map of the Changi Airport Cargo Complex, upon which he marked out the fuel tanks as likely targets for sabotage.
- JI was also exploring the idea of sabotaging the MRT system, including its operations control centre, and Jurong Island.
Collapse Expand
Former JI member Jameel* joined the group in 1989 before he was trained in Afghanistan and tasked to plan sabotage operations against US interests in Singapore.
The former JI members CNA interviewed for this story have been rehabilitated and released from detention.
JI had also planned to impair Singapore’s military capabilities by targeting the Ministry of Defence (MINDEF) headquarters in Bukit Gombak, ISD said. So, Jameel was asked to conduct reconnaissance of Gombak camp.
That year, the cell surveyed the perimeter and exits of the camp, and even entered the compound on several occasions under the guise of courier services, ISD said.
Report from a reconnaissance mission on MINDEF headquarters. (Photo: Internal Security Department)
“As a leader of the cell, I sent one of my men to become a dispatch rider where he went into MINDEF to deliver parcels or packages,” Jameel, now in his late 50s and working as a cleaner, told CNA.
“In the mail room, he surveyed what was in the mail room, then he came out and looked around the MINDEF compound.”
One of the cell members also worked at a company that distributed a defence magazine whose subscribers included officers who worked at Gombak. “So we got to know some names, and we gave these to our seniors,” Jameel said.
One of the more detailed schemes was when a JI member tailed a MINDEF officer from Gombak all the way to Tampines. It turned out that JI had considered placing explosives in a MINDEF officer’s car and detonating them while the car was in the camp, ISD said.
CHANGE OF PLANS
Then on Dec 3, the media published a report that Aslam had been arrested by the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan.
The story, which was likely to attract further media attention, forced ISD’s hand. The department decided to bring forward its operation against Aslam's associates before they went underground or left the country to escape arrest.
On Dec 8, the operation began. ISD senior research officer Wei Ling* remembers vividly how that day, a Saturday, started.
“When my research team, colleagues and I went into the office that day, we thought that it was pretty much going to be an open-and-shut kind of operation that would be wrapped up by that weekend, or just a few days after that,” she told CNA.
“But by nightfall on Saturday, we realised that we were so far wrong, and that we had actually stumbled on something big. Specifically, we had to somehow race against the clock to stop terrorist attacks from happening on Singapore’s soil.”
The next day, ISD officers arrested six of Aslam’s associates and seized items of interest from their homes.
PEELING BACK THE LAYERS
Back at the office, the pressure was mounting.
Research officers like Wei Ling worked 12-hour shifts, each handling two or three suspects that had been brought in. These officers worked directly with their operations counterparts, who were assigned the same suspects to focus on.
Wei Ling, now in her 40s, said it was tough work in the beginning because the JI suspects were not talking: “They were clamming up, which basically meant that we do not know what to look out for,” she said.
“So, it really felt like we were trying to put together a 10,000-piece jigsaw puzzle but the problem is that we did not know how it was supposed to look like in the end.”
The plan was for ISD’s operations officers to try breaking down the suspects, Wei Ling said, while research officers combed through the copious amounts of evidence that had been seized.
These included things like photo albums, religious books, name cards and even scraps of paper stuck between the pages of books.
The discoveries got more sinister.
Wei Ling’s colleague looked into a VCD labelled “visiting Singapore sightseeing”. It turned out to be a reconnaissance video of foreign embassies in Singapore that the terrorists wanted to attack. The video soundtrack was the Aerosmith song, I Don’t Wanna Miss A Thing.
“They did have a very perverse sense of humour, the JI members,” Wei Ling said.
“So, it was all this day-in day-out trial and error, and through some real finds as well, that we slowly managed to piece together this local and regional threat that is JI.”
When another colleague inserted a seized diskette into her computer, she found bomb making instructions. Wei Ling recalled her colleague shaking and her heart racing.
“At that point in time, it really drove home to her and to us that there were indeed Singaporeans who were intent on harming Singapore,” Wei Ling said.
“It’s just the thought of your own countrymen, you know. People who you might have taken the MRT with, people who you might have met on the streets, normal people.
“But yet, they have such cynical thoughts. It’s just mind bending. At that point, we got ourselves together very quickly because there was absolutely no time to waste and we got down to doing what was needed.”
A white sports bag containing sulphur powder, used to synthesise explosives. (Photo: Internal Security Department)
Notes showing how to construct explosives were seized. (Photo: Internal Security Department)
Between Dec 15 and Dec 23, ISD officers made further arrests.
A total of 23 people were picked up for questioning in December. Thirteen of them were detained after they were found to be active JI members who were involved in the profiling and surveillance of targets for terrorist attacks, and in the preparations for bomb construction. Two others were released on restriction orders (RO).
One of those picked up in this first wave of arrests was Adam*, who joined JI in 1991 and held several positions within the group, such as treasurer, secretary and trainer.
Adam was also personally involved in the reconnaissance of Yishun MRT station to target US personnel who were commuting to their base at Sembawang wharf. The plan was to place a bomb near where they waited for a shuttle bus to the base.
One night, Adam was at home when a group of ISD officers came knocking. He knew that his time was up.
“I told them to wait outside, because I wanted to perform my prayers with my family,” Adam, now in his early 60s and working as a technician, told CNA. “They were courteous enough to wait for me to finish my prayers, and then they took me away.”
Rajah acknowledged the “immense pressure” on ISD to execute its operational plans swiftly, considering the credible information that Singapore was an actual target for the terrorists.
At the height of this operation, dozens of teams of investigators, researchers, engineers and field officers worked round the clock for more than 600 hours, ISD said, generating over 65,000 operational leads.
“The officers worked 24/7, various departments of various sections of the department came together, we were really stretched in terms of manpower and resources,” Rajah said.
“But all the officers persevered. It is the commitment of the officers and their firm belief to make sure nothing happens to this country.”
NOT THE END YET
Despite the progress that had been made, there was still a long road ahead.
Surveillance and search teams conducted discreet checks for months at many locations to determine if the explosives sought by JI operatives could have been smuggled into Singapore and stashed away.
ISD forensic officers worked tirelessly to process the staggering amount of evidence seized, while operations officers conducted almost daily interviews with the JI members and their associates.
On Dec 28, Rajah and his team made a startling discovery from interviews with two detainees recently brought in: JI planned to retaliate against the Dec 9 arrests by hijacking and crashing a plane into Changi Airport.
“When the first wave of arrests was made, the remnant JI members met secretly and then proceeded to one of the JI members’ houses to regroup and discuss the strategy,” Rajah said, adding that they were in a mood of “anger and panic”.
Flight tickets Mas Selamat booked to travel to Pakistan. (Photo: Internal Security Department)
It was during this meeting that Mas Selamat Kastari, then-leader of Singapore’s JI branch, suggested that the remaining members leave Singapore and conduct a retaliatory attack. The members also agreed to destroy any incriminating evidence and avoid further arrests.
One of those who received these instructions was Jameel. He was arrested when trying to go through the Woodlands checkpoint.
But another former JI member, Johan*, had more luck.
Johan held several prominent positions in the group, including being a member of its consultative council. He had also travelled to Malaysia and the Philippines to learn bomb making and weapons handling skills.
On the first day of Hari Raya Puasa in December 2001, Johan visited his parents. The next day, he fled Singapore via the land checkpoint without telling his family.
The JI members on the run, including Johan and Mas Selamat, regrouped in Malacca. During a meeting there, Jameel handed over S$11,000 in cash – money he had kept for the group’s activities – to Mas Selamat, who redistributed S$1,000 to each member for safe keeping.
The members decided to split up, and Johan and Mas Selamat travelled on to Kelantan in northern Malaysia, where they met in a hotel and hatched the plan to hijack and crash a plane.
“Personally, I was surprised also because I never expected such a thing,” Johan, now in his early 60s and working in sales, told CNA. “Basically we had that idea, but not specifically (targeting) Changi Airport at that very moment.”
Johan and the others crossed the border into Thailand and eventually reached Bangkok, where they bought business class tickets on a flight from Bangkok to Singapore. This meant that the plan was close to fruition, ISD said.
“We decided to buy a business class ticket, on the pretext that it would be closer to the cockpit for us to have the access to gain entry to the cockpit and of course the pilot himself,” Johan said.
“We were told by Mas Selamat that the security level was low for this flight, and there weren’t any air marshals on the flight.”
Books on military tactics and strategies seized by ISD. (Photo: Internal Security Department)
Books on military tactics and strategies seized by ISD. (Photo: Internal Security Department)
Books on military tactics and strategies seized by ISD. (Photo: Internal Security Department)
Investigations revealed that Mas Selamat had planned to crash the plane into the Changi Airport control tower, and Rajah called this a “hot issue during an intensive investigation”.
“They trained, they kept themselves isolated, they trained physically, they did simulation training in terms of how to hijack the plane and enter the cockpit,” Rajah said.
“They also watched videos in terms of how hijacks are done, and they were mentally prepared to execute the plan.”
The ISD quickly engaged its foreign liaison partners and requested that they ask the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to issue an alert on Mas Selamat and his plan. On Dec 29, the FAA disseminated the information, and the media published a story about it.
Mas Selamat soon came across a report in a Thailand newspaper mentioning his name as a fugitive.
“It was quite a shock to all five of us. We were taken aback due to that article,” Johan said. “Mas Selamat decided that we hold back the plan but not abandon it.”
Rajah said this averted the potential devastation that could have taken place. “It could have been disastrous to Singapore if it actually happened,” he stressed.
THOSE WHO HAVE FLED
The hijacking plot is one example of how JI members overseas remained a threat to Singapore, ISD senior operations officer Faisal* told CNA.
“They have this operational knowledge of the place. So, if they are overseas, they can continue to plan attacks, they can join the regional JI counterparts to plan attacks on Singapore,” said Faisal, now in his early 60s.
Furthermore, these fugitives might regroup and develop a second generation of JI overseas, he explained.
“It is very important that we must bring them back in order for us to neutralise the threat,” he added.
To achieve this, ISD shared information they got from interviews and surveillance of JI members as well as their associates and family members with regional law enforcement partners.
Johan said the plan to attack Changi Airport was eventually abandoned. The group split up again, and he fled to central Java in Indonesia. Johan was arrested in Jakarta and finally deported to Singapore.
Weapons used in knife throwing and fighting sessions seized by ISD. (Photo: Internal Security Department)
Weapons used in knife throwing and fighting sessions seized by ISD. (Photo: Internal Security Department)
Weapons used in knife throwing and fighting sessions seized by ISD. (Photo: Internal Security Department)
Weapons used in knife throwing and fighting sessions seized by ISD. (Photo: Internal Security Department)
Weapons used in knife throwing and fighting sessions seized by ISD. (Photo: Internal Security Department)
Weapons used in knife throwing and fighting sessions seized by ISD. (Photo: Internal Security Department)
ISD also took the approach of engaging JI members’ families to convince their loved ones to return to Singapore where they would be treated fairly, Faisal said.
“There are a few of them who fled from Singapore without their family. So of course, they will miss the family and sometimes they do contact the family and all that,” Faisal said.
At least four JI fugitives who fled to Malaysia later returned to Singapore after speaking to their family and local contacts. One was told off by his family members for being “foolish” and languishing as a fugitive in Malaysia, ISD said.
Another method was setting the fugitive up to meet an associate overseas, through an ISD source acting as a middleman.
“When the fugitive decided to meet at a certain hotel, we give this information to our foreign partner,” Faisal added. “So, the foreign partner waited for him at the hotel. He came, he was arrested, then after that returned to Singapore.”
ISD’s investigations eventually led to the arrests of another 21 people in August 2002.
In September 2002, 17 JI members and one member of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, which has conducted attacks in the Philippines, were detained. The remaining three people were released on ROs.
Of the 17 JI detainees, at least eight had conducted reconnaissance and surveillance of strategic targets in Singapore, including water pipelines and Changi Airport.
The ISD operation was not conducted without risk.
Investigations revealed that at least one local JI member had considered kidnapping ISD officers to demand the release of those who were in detention, ISD said.
According to another JI member, some senior members had repeatedly mentioned that they would not hesitate to kill ISD officers if they were prevented from carrying out their plans. Several JI members were also prepared to use deadly force to resist arrest.
Rajah admitted that the investigations into JI were “not easy”, noting that its members operated in high secrecy and were deeply indoctrinated.
A notebook page showing instructions to recall JI members. (Photo: Internal Security Department)
A code system designed to let members know where and when to meet. (Photo: Internal Security Department)
Jameel revealed that the JI members never used their real names, and never travelled directly to a meeting point to ensure they were not being followed. They used different codes for locations and dates when contacting each other using pagers.
As for their camaraderie, Rajah said some members pledged loyalty to spiritual leaders, were sometimes related by blood, and had trained and operated in conflict zones overseas.
“These actually bonded them together as a group, and they had a certain exclusivist mindset that they were the chosen one, they were here for a mission of jihad,” Rajah added.
“It was really a challenge. We had to really win their hearts and minds before they would start talking to us.”
ROAD TO REHABILITATION
As part of that approach, ISD has since 2002 partnered with volunteers from the Religious Rehabilitation Group (RRG) and Inter-Agency Aftercare Group to rehabilitate detainees and RO supervisees and ensure they do not re-engage in terrorism-related activities.
These volunteers provide religious, psychological and social rehabilitation, including financial and social support, and extend the help to family members to correct any radical ideology they might have been exposed to.
When the former JI member Adam was first arrested, he expected to be tortured and brainwashed. He says he felt grateful when officers did none of this.
“They also tried to rationalise with me, to show me that what I did was wrong,” he said. “So when we did not succeed in our attempts to do all those things, what I felt was we were not (fighting) a lost cause. We were fighting a wrong cause.”
During his detention from 2002 to 2010, Adam spoke with religious teachers from the RRG and asked where he went wrong. He read a translation of the Quran and discovered that many of the things he did were not in line with the religion.
“The religious teachers play an important role also, by streamlining me back to the correct Islam,” he added.
“This is actually a very painful time for me. Because I’ve lost a lot of years during my time in JI and detention. I’ve missed a lot of time with my family, my children. Now, I’m trying to make up for it.”
An organisational chart drawn up by ISD officers in December 2001. (Photo: Internal Security Department)
Notes showing the structure of JI cells. (Photo: Internal Security Department)
While Adam said it took him a “few months of reflection” to change his perspective, other detainees were tougher to crack.
One former JI member who was detained for 10 years held on to the belief that he was wrongfully detained and victimised for most of his detention, which in turn affected his rehabilitation.
ISD case officers and rehabilitation partners continued to reach out to him. Eventually, his attitude changed around the sixth year of his detention, and he started showing progress in his rehabilitation, ISD said.
Of the 56 Singapore JI members who were detained since 2002, four remain in detention, while another six are currently on ROs. The remaining 46 had their ROs lapsed.
The majority of them have reintegrated well into society, and continue to maintain a close rapport with ISD case officers and rehabilitation stakeholders, ISD said.
A video camera owned by a JI member. (Photo: Internal Security Department)
However, the four JI members who remain in detention are still deeply entrenched in their radical beliefs and are assessed to pose an imminent security threat, ISD added.
One of them is openly hostile to ISD officers and rehabilitation partners, and regularly threatens to harm ISD officers and the Government.
He also said that he would destroy Singapore, and that the country would burn in hellfire because of its secular society.
Another member still believes in the concept of armed jihad. He expressed admiration for suicide bombers and said he would not hesitate to engage in suicide attacks if called on by the JI leaders to do so.
“ISD will continue to explore ways to reach out to them and encourage them to participate in rehabilitation,” it said.
THE THREAT TODAY
While JI’s Singapore branch has been disrupted, the group remains quietly active in Indonesia, where it continues to conduct outreach and recruitment activities, ISD continued.
“At this juncture, there is no indication that Indonesian JI members are rekindling operational ties with former Singapore JI members or that they have been recruiting Singaporeans,” ISD said.
“Nonetheless, the JI likely retains its aspirations to establish a Daulah Islamiyah (Islamic State) in Southeast Asia and could again set its sights on recruiting regional affiliates. Hence, ISD continues to keep a close watch on the JI’s activities in Southeast Asia.”
ISD can stay a step ahead of JI and other associated threats by continuing to share intelligence and coordinate security sweeps with counterparts in countries like Malaysia and Indonesia, Associate Professor Kumar Ramakrishna at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies told CNA.
“For instance at the end of 2001, JI cells in both Singapore and Malaysia were disrupted in coordinated operations between ISD and the Malaysian Special Branch,” said Assoc Prof Ramakrishna, who heads the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research.
Assoc Prof Ramakrishna said the JI threat in 2001 represented a “different species” of terror threat that Singapore had to deal with at the time, compared to when militants from the Communist Party of Malaya engaged in shootings, bombings and assassinations from the late 1940s till the end of the 1980s.
“This required a bit of analytical retooling on the part of security agencies and the wider think-tank community, to quickly come to grips with the emergence of the new mass-casualty, religion-exploiting terrorism of JI and Al-Qaeda at that time,” he said.
In this Sep 20, 2021 file photo, Taliban district police chief Shirullah Badri stands in front of a Taliban flag during an interview at his office in Kabul, Afghanistan. With the US exit from Afghanistan, observers said the Islamic State in Afghanistan is poised to usher in another violent phase. (AP Photo/Felipe Dana, File)
Moving forward, Assoc Prof Ramakrishna called the terrorist threat a “constantly moving target”, with social media exposing younger and relatively impressionable Singaporeans to extremist ideologies such as that of the far right.
In December 2020, ISD detected Singapore’s first self-radicalisation case inspired by far-right extremist ideology. A 16-year-old Singaporean had planned to conduct attacks at two mosques in Singapore on Mar 15, the second anniversary of the Christchurch attacks.
This is of “significant concern” in Singapore, Assoc Prof Ramakrishna said, especially as ISIS – and its use of online propaganda – has emerged as the primary regional threat.
“So, security agencies need to constantly keep abreast of these evolving trends, partly through strong in-house research, information sharing and exchanges with counterpart agencies, as well as engagement with think-tanks and research institutes,” he added.
In particular, ISIS’ use of social media and sophisticated methods of presenting itself has been a “game changer”, Rajah said, while the Taliban’s rise in Afghanistan could provide sanctuaries and training grounds for terrorists.
“Regional terrorist groups have networks with Al-Qaeda and ISIS, and they will – and probably already have – develop their skillsets,” he added.
“That will continue to pose a danger not just to the regional countries but also to Singapore.”
*Names have been changed to protect their identity.
Watch INSIGHT on CNA on Dec 9 at 9pm for more on how the plot to launch terrorist attacks against Singapore was foiled.
21. U.S. should expect cyberattacks in any struggle for Taiwan
Yes. A BFO. (blinding flash of the obvious.)
U.S. should expect cyberattacks in any struggle for Taiwan
SIMI VALLEY, Calif. ― Several U.S. defense leaders said Saturday they are worried that a confrontation with China over Taiwan would lead to a wave of significant cyberattacks against U.S. critical infrastructure that could disrupt day-to-day life.
“I’m particularly concerned about them in terms of what they might do in terms of cyberattacks on our critical infrastructure here in the United States,” Army Secretary Christine Wormuth said at the annual Reagan National Defense Forum.
“There’s a real possibility that if we ever got into a conflict you could see attacks on our power grid, for example, or the transportation sector, which would have implications not only for how we would be able to project our military, but also have substantial consequences for the American public.”
The comments came amid rising tensions between the U.S. and China over Taiwan, the democratically-ruled island which China considers its own territory. Over the past year, China has increased the frequency of incursions of its aircraft breaching Taiwan’s air defense buffer zone. It also follows news of a recent suspected Chinese hacking campaign against U.S. defense and tech companies.
Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Jack Reed, D-R.I., said here that he expects there would be a “major” attack that “would be disruptive to American society” and target critical assets like the reserve aviation and maritime fleets critical to ferrying troops and supplies.
“Looking at Taiwan, I don’t think it would be the traditional D-Day because that would take months to organize,” Reed said, adding that cyberwarfare would be a significant feature. “We have to build our defenses, which we’re trying, and be able to counteract.”
Speaking separately, Republican Wisconsin Rep. Mike Gallagher argued Washington needs a way to better war-game and communicate the risk of a devastating cyber attack on U.S. infrastructure, if the U.S. confronts China over Taiwan. American water, power and transportation systems would be at risk.
“In such a confrontation, Las Vegas rules would not apply. What happens in the Taiwan Straits would not be confined there,” said Gallagher, who co-chaired the bipartisan, congressionally mandated Cyberspace Solarium Commission.
“I just fear we’re not attacking this with a sense of urgency,” Gallagher said. “I feel like unless we change course, that we’re going to lose World War III before it begins.”
Also at the conference, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said the U.S. is working to support Taiwan’s ability to defend itself in line with the Taiwan Relations Act, and he warned that China is edging toward its own nuclear triad of land, air and sea-launched intercontinental nuclear weapons.
Asked in a discussion with Fox News’ Bret Baier what keeps him up at night, Austin said it was adversaries’ space and cyber capabilities.
“Sometimes the next serious challenge can come from a place that you don’t expect,” he said. “I want to make sure we have sufficient capabilities in cyber and space that compliment the rest of the inventory.”
The defense forum, in its eighth year, brings together lawmakers and defense leaders for a day of discussions on national security strategy, priorities and challenges.
With reporting by the Associated Press.
Joe Gould is the Congress and industry reporter at Defense News, covering defense budget and policy matters on Capitol Hill as well as industry news.
22. The U.S. Triumphs When Leaders Find a Path Between Isolation and Hubris
Excerpts:
But as anyone who has studied warfare knows, one need not be a peer to be effective. Smart strategies can offset other deficiencies. The invasion of Iraq remains one of America’s greatest fiascos. As I wrote in Blunder: Why Smart People Make Bad Decisions, at least seven distinct cognition traps (or rigid mindsets) combined to undermine American success. But underlying all of those faulty perspectives lay the failure to respect the limits of what the United States could possibly achieve in a land riven by sectarian and regional divides.
If Iraq was a mosaic, Afghanistan was a jigsaw puzzle with part of the pieces missing. Its patchwork of sects, tribes, warlords, factions, criminal syndicates, and regional divides made nation-building in Iraq look simple. The idea that America had the power to forge a national identity in these places was optimistic at best. And yet, it never had to end the way it did. The United States repeatedly sabotaged its own success by underestimating the difficulty, taking a short-term approach, constantly switching strategies, expanding its mission, and mismeasuring morale. The war in Afghanistan could have ended successfully if American objectives had only been more aligned with its capabilities.
The post-Cold War era has given American leaders a distorted view of what their country can achieve. Without the Soviet Union as a counterweight, and lacking thoughtful leaders like Truman, Eisenhower, and Kennan to balance the unrealistically ambitious members in every administration, recent American leaders have misperceived the country’s might. The United States needs to recapture the clear-eyed recognition of its power’s limits without losing the will to defend its values.
America can still help to spread freedom; it just has to do it in smarter ways. For the early postwar generation of leaders, restraint did not mean retrenchment, and advancing ideals did not require adventurism. On the contrary, balance was a secret of their success.
The U.S. Triumphs When Leaders Find a Path Between Isolation and Hubris
Standing up for U.S. values doesn't mean abandoning caution.
By Zachary Shore, the author of A Sense of the Enemy and Blunder: Why Smart People Make Bad Decisions.
The United States has the power to do great things. It often lacks the judgment to do wise things. It wasn’t always this way, and it need not stay this way much longer. America could change course—if it understands why it blunders.
It is hard to face the disastrous string of decisions that produced Vietnam, Libya, Iraq, and now Afghanistan, and not feel both despondent and perplexed. How did a country that won World War II, launched the Marshall Plan, rebuilt Germany and Japan into stable democratic and economic powerhouses, and triumphed in the Cold War manage to botch so many foreign interventions?
The secret lies hidden in America’s ascendence. We can learn more not from what successful presidencies did but rather from what they did not do. They did not overreach, because they recognized the limits of American power. Yet they also did not retrench, because they saw the need for American ideals in the world.
The United States has the power to do great things. It often lacks the judgment to do wise things. It wasn’t always this way, and it need not stay this way much longer. America could change course—if it understands why it blunders.
It is hard to face the disastrous string of decisions that produced Vietnam, Libya, Iraq, and now Afghanistan, and not feel both despondent and perplexed. How did a country that won World War II, launched the Marshall Plan, rebuilt Germany and Japan into stable democratic and economic powerhouses, and triumphed in the Cold War manage to botch so many foreign interventions?
The secret lies hidden in America’s ascendence. We can learn more not from what successful presidencies did but rather from what they did not do. They did not overreach, because they recognized the limits of American power. Yet they also did not retrench, because they saw the need for American ideals in the world.
The United States emerged from World War II as the undisputed leader of the free world. Its enemies were vanquished and occupied. Its rivals for global influence, Britain and France, were physically devastated and financially distressed. And although Soviet influence extended far beyond Russian borders, for the first four years after victory, the United States enjoyed a monopoly on nuclear weapons. With so much power and so little opposition, it seemed as though the country could do almost anything, but America’s leaders sometimes managed to keep hubris at bay.
America’s first genuine postwar challenge came in 1945, as Soviet forces exerted their influence over Eastern Europe, erecting police states, murdering political opponents, censoring media, and maneuvering for total control. When Soviet leader Joseph Stalin played hardball in Bulgaria and Romania, U.S. President Harry S. Truman and his Secretary of State James Byrnes had a choice: either risk a rupture with Moscow so soon after the war or recognize that those countries fell within the Soviet sphere.
No American statesman relished the prospect of total Soviet control in any country, but they had the sense to see that the United States simply could not get everything it wanted. It could not engage in another war so soon after the last one, especially with soldiers desperate to get home. There were also many Eastern Europeans who felt drawn to communism, as it offered the prospect of a more equal society. And so instead of escalation, Byrnes pushed back in another contested region. Stalin hoped to have at least some influence in Japan, but this was the Asian nation of greatest importance to America. Essentially, the two great powers tacitly agreed that each had to respect each other’s domain. Neither could have all that it wanted, because neither believed that the costs of war were worth it. By necessity, restraint and compromise became the order of the day.
When the president declared the Truman Doctrine two years later, asserting that America would protect the world from oppression, this pronouncement was more rhetoric than real. The United States could aid Greece and Turkey against communist incursions, but it could never defend free people everywhere. No nation wielded that much power. Truman’s “doctrine” was simply a proclamation of peaceful ideals, not a commitment to perpetual war. “If I thought for a moment that the precedent of Greece and Turkey obliged us to try to do the same thing in China,” Policy Planning Chief George Kennan quipped, “I would throw up my hands and say we had better have a whole new approach to the affairs of the world.”
Not all American leaders got the message. In June 1947, the Joint Chiefs of Staff called for a massive intervention in China’s civil war to defend Chiang Kai-shek’s troops. Secretary of State George Marshall turned to Kennan for rebuttal. Kennan advised extending only enough nonmilitary financial aid to the nationalists to avert a precipitous collapse. Marshall and Truman quietly agreed. Kennan, Marshall, and Truman knew that they would be blamed for “losing China,” but it was far better to suffer the calumny of political opponents than to embroil the nation in a war it could not win.
Another year, another crisis. In 1948, Stalin tried to strangle the Western sector by cutting off all food, coal, and medicine to West Berlin, hoping he could compel the West to withdraw. Again, Truman faced a choice: go to war over West Berlin to defend an ally, or retreat in the face of overwhelming Soviet force. When wise leaders find initial options unpalatable, they devise alternatives. Over the course of 15 months, the United States and its allies delivered a stunning 2,334,374 tons of supplies, an amount even greater than Berlin had been receiving by road and rail before the blockade had begun. Truman advanced American values without ever firing a shot.
Two years later, Korea revealed that hubris never flees. It simply lingers, waiting for another chance to sabotage success. When the communist North attacked, American overconfidence was immediately exposed. U.S. military planners had assumed that the North would be too poorly equipped to invade. In fact, North Korean leader Kim Il Sung’s troops were well armed and well trained by Soviet advisors. Initially, both U.S. and South Korean troops fell back in disarray. During the course of the war, Seoul would change hands four times. On this occasion, Truman saw that force had to be met with counterforce. No airlift could beat back an invading army. But when U.S. Gen. Douglas MacArthur, emboldened by his surprise landing at Incheon, flouted orders and pushed north to unite the entire peninsula, he defied not just his commander in chief but also geostrategic logic. As Truman and the Joint Chiefs understood, China would not accept American troops that close to its border.
9MacArthur’s dictum that there is no substitute for victory was more platitude than precept. It overlooked the unpleasant fact that sometimes the cost of victory, if it can even be achieved, is simply too high, and the best you can hope for is a stalemate. Ideally, the United States would have liked to make all of Korea free and democratic, but American leaders had to temper their ideals with reality. They could not have it all, and half the peninsula was better than none. By accepting a cessation of hostilities and the indefinite division of Korea, American statesmen acknowledged that although their country’s power had limits, it could at least keep democratic ideals alive in the South.
While the war in Korea continued, another Asian conflict threatened to ensnare the United States, but this one differed from Korea. In 1953, the French pleaded with America to support them in their calamitous fight in Vietnam. Every member of U.S. President Dwight D. Eisenhower’s cabinet, including Vice President Richard Nixon, urged him to back the French in defense against communist expansion. Eisenhower overruled them all. He wrote in his diary that the United States would simply be seen by the Vietnamese as a new colonial overlord. Historians still debate Ike’s true motives, but the General-turned-President understood that Vietnam could hardly be seen as central to the national interest, and supporting French colonialism would not advance American ideals. Tragically, Eisenhower’s prudence gave way as changing conditions lured new leaders toward disaster.
Throughout the early postwar decades, Americans genuinely feared that the Soviet model could overtake them, or bury them, as Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev threatened. That fear served as a partial restraint, though it also fueled violent, repressive measures such as Operation Condor in Latin America.
But if a series of postwar American leaders and their civilian advisors understood the limits of American power, what, then, explains what happened in Vietnam, a small, technologically backward country? The answer, of course, is that North Vietnam was not alone. It had the support of the communist world, most notably China and the Soviet Union. So long as North Vietnam received arms, ammunition, funds, advisors, and resources from its allies, the United States was indirectly fighting a much more powerful foe.
All of U.S. President Lyndon B. Johnson’s and his successor Nixon’s bombing campaigns only hardened the North’s resolve. In short, American leaders failed to know their enemy. Their enemy, in contrast, knew the United States well enough to exploit its weakest link: its need to maintain the American public’s support for the war. Vietnamese leader Le Duan pursued a strategy of sapping the public’s will to fight. His superior approach helped to offset the North’s disadvantages. Le Duan made many errors of his own, but he had a fairly clear sense of America’s limits. Johnson and his advisors did not.
After Vietnam, the United States retrenched somewhat, engaging in smaller, more limited conflicts, while continuing to maintain the Cold War. Less than one year following the fall of the Berlin Wall, while America was still basking in the glow of its Cold War triumph, Iraq invaded Kuwait. U.S. President George H.W. Bush oversaw the ejection of Iraqi forces, and then, crucially, he did not order a drive into Baghdad. Pushing back an invading army is one thing; overturning a regime and rebuilding it is quite another. The elder Bush had the sense to avoid that trap. Though criticized for stopping short, he respected the limits of what could reasonably be achieved. Like sensible statesmen before him, he set a clear objective, met it, and left. He did not overreach.
George H.W. Bush was the last American president to have participated in World War II, either in combat or in government. That was the Greatest Generation that helped to create the American century, and some of them appreciated what it took to build. They embodied a can-do spirit, but one tempered by reality. Can-do did not mean they could do anything. It meant they tried hard to make the difficult possible. They did not blithely insist on the impossible or even the highly unlikely. Obviously, there were many of that same generation who nonetheless advocated reckless military actions, from China to Vietnam to Korea to Cuba. But the ones who learned to respect the limits of American power managed to have greater influence for most of the Cold War’s conflicts. Vietnam was the gravest exception.
George W. Bush did not inherit his father’s wisdom in this regard, but he did inherit American power. As is often the case with an inheritance, the children seldom appreciate what it took to build. The younger Bush was in some sense cursed by a post-Soviet America. He assumed the presidency following a long period of economic growth and relative peace. Neither Russia nor China nor any other state stood as a true peer competitor.
But as anyone who has studied warfare knows, one need not be a peer to be effective. Smart strategies can offset other deficiencies. The invasion of Iraq remains one of America’s greatest fiascos. As I wrote in Blunder: Why Smart People Make Bad Decisions, at least seven distinct cognition traps (or rigid mindsets) combined to undermine American success. But underlying all of those faulty perspectives lay the failure to respect the limits of what the United States could possibly achieve in a land riven by sectarian and regional divides.
If Iraq was a mosaic, Afghanistan was a jigsaw puzzle with part of the pieces missing. Its patchwork of sects, tribes, warlords, factions, criminal syndicates, and regional divides made nation-building in Iraq look simple. The idea that America had the power to forge a national identity in these places was optimistic at best. And yet, it never had to end the way it did. The United States repeatedly sabotaged its own success by underestimating the difficulty, taking a short-term approach, constantly switching strategies, expanding its mission, and mismeasuring morale. The war in Afghanistan could have ended successfully if American objectives had only been more aligned with its capabilities.
The post-Cold War era has given American leaders a distorted view of what their country can achieve. Without the Soviet Union as a counterweight, and lacking thoughtful leaders like Truman, Eisenhower, and Kennan to balance the unrealistically ambitious members in every administration, recent American leaders have misperceived the country’s might. The United States needs to recapture the clear-eyed recognition of its power’s limits without losing the will to defend its values.
America can still help to spread freedom; it just has to do it in smarter ways. For the early postwar generation of leaders, restraint did not mean retrenchment, and advancing ideals did not require adventurism. On the contrary, balance was a secret of their success.
23. Finely-Tuned, Hyper-Focused (Air Force Special Operations Command)
Finely-Tuned, Hyper-Focused
HURLBURT FIELD, Fla. --Air Force Special Operations Command has made significant changes to their deployment tempo that will allow Airmen to have designated time to build resiliency and work towards career and life goals. These changes should help them shift their focus from counter violent extremist missions to preparing for the great power competition.
Over the last two decades, Air Force Special Operations Command (AFSOC) has had one of the highest deployment tempos in the Air Force. The thousands of missions and accomplishments resulting from these deployments remain largely in the shadows, as these Airmen take pride in being Quiet Professionals. However, pride and professionalism have a price.
Consistent deployments to execute counter-terrorism operations caused many Airmen within AFSOC to leave their personal lives and career ambitions on the back burner.
As the U.S. Air Force enters a new era of great power competition against China and Russia, the AFSOC commander is making unprecedented changes to the major command, including a renewed emphasis on mental health, resilience and deliberate development.
“What we found after 9/11 was that we had to become a force that could deploy and just stay deployed. AFSOC became the most deployed MAJCOM in the Air Force; the installations that are our power projection platforms at Hurlburt and Cannon are the most deployed installations in the Air Force,” said Lt. Gen Jim Slife, AFSOC commander. “When we look at the future and where we are today, we realize that the force that we built over the last 20 years, which has served us extraordinarily well, is not actually the force we’re going to need in the future operating environment.”
“When I say that, I don’t mean to suggest that we need to throw away all the airplanes and go buy new ones, that’s not what I’m talking about,” explained Slife, who had his first AFSOC related assignment in 1992. “The heart of our force is our Airmen. That is our competitive advantage in AFSOC. So, what we have to do is equip, develop and organize the Airmen of the command for that future operating environment. When I say we have to become something different, what I mean is we have to help our Airmen become what the nation is going to need them to be over the coming years.”
U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. Jim Slife, commander of Air Force Special Operations Command, briefs guests on what capabilities they will observe throughout a Forward Area Refueling Point demonstration with two USMC F-35B Lightning II’s, during the AFSOC Technology, Acquisition, and Sustainment Review at Duke Field, Florida, July 21, 2021. “TASR is our opportunity to show the acquisitions community how our SOF capabilities support the joint force,” said Slife. “It is also an opportunity to support future acquisitions that will help shape the force toward the AFSOC we will need in the future.” (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Janiqua P. Robinson)
Finely-Tuned, Hyper-Focused
U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. Jim Slife, commander of Air Force Special Operations Command, briefs guests on what capabilities they will observe throughout a Forward Area Refueling Point demonstration with two USMC F-35B Lightning II’s, during the AFSOC Technology, Acquisition, and Sustainment Review at Duke Field, Florida, July 21, 2021. “TASR is our opportunity to show the acquisitions community how our SOF capabilities support the joint force,” said Slife. “It is also an opportunity to support future acquisitions that will help shape the force toward the AFSOC we will need in the future.” (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Janiqua P. Robinson)
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Photo By: Staff Sgt. Janiqua P. Robinson
VIRIN: 210721-F-LM051-0168
To fulfill its role in the National Defense Strategy and answer Gen. Charles Q. Brown’s call to Accelerate Change or Lose, the Air Force as a whole is moving towards the Air Force Force Generation model (AFFORGEN) that will change the way squadrons deploy. AFSOC has created a similar model that suits their unique mission.
Force Generation
“Force Generation is this concept of training and developing the next generation of AFSOC warriors and leaders to face the next challenges we’re going to have,” said Maj. Andy Chen, 34th Special Operations Squadron, Force Generation Professional Development Assistant Director of Operations. “For the last 20 years we've been fighting a specific type of conflict, the counter violent extremism/counter-insurgency conflict and we're transitioning toward the great power competition. So, that takes not just a change in how we train people and get them ready, but also a change in mindset.
“SOFORGEN stands for Special Operations Forces Generation and the overall plan is basically to give more time back to the squadron teammates so they have time to pursue their personal and professional goals,” Chen explained. “Then, also give them more time to prepare for the next fight. It's basically a 20-month cycle broken down into four phases.”
The cycle begins post deployment with the RESET phase, where Airmen have the opportunity to focus on resilience and reintegrating into family life.
“This is the time for people to regroup, reconnect with themselves and their families and for them to pursue professional educational opportunities. When we say that human capital is our most important resource, the keyword there, I believe, is human,” Chen emphasized.
“We've been looking at our aircrews kind of like functional mission assets for a very long time. That's by necessity. We've been very busy for the last 20 years and people just come back from deployment and then get ready for the next one. Unfortunately, there has been a trade-off with a full spectrum of readiness. If we say that human capital is important, we have to focus on the holistic look at a human, not just the technical expertise, but their aspirations, their career ambitions and what they want for themselves and their families.”
After the RESET phase, Airmen train together during the PREPARE phase, orient themselves to conduct their mission globally during the READY phase and are certified and primed to deploy when they reach the COMMIT phase.
SOFORGEN stands for Special Operations Forces Generation and is divided into four phases. The cycle begins post deployment with the RESET phase where Airmen have the opportunity to focus on resilience and reintegrating into family life. Airmen train together during the PREPARE phase, orient themselves to conduct their mission globally during the READY phase and are certified and primed to deploy when they reach the COMMIT phase.
Finely-Tuned, Hyper-Focused
SOFORGEN stands for Special Operations Forces Generation and is divided into four phases. The cycle begins post deployment with the RESET phase where Airmen have the opportunity to focus on resilience and reintegrating into family life. Airmen train together during the PREPARE phase, orient themselves to conduct their mission globally during the READY phase and are certified and primed to deploy when they reach the COMMIT phase.
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Photo By: Travis Burcham
VIRIN: 211129-D-HR740-0001
The 34th Special Operations Squadron (SOS) is the first to go through the new SOFORGEN cycle and is currently in the PREPARE phase. Capt. Rey Toledo, 34th SOS U-28 instructor pilot and assistant flight commander, ensures his squadron is properly trained up.
“We're in the middle of the PREPARE phase right now and we're gearing up to make sure that we're ready for the COMMIT phase,” Toledo illustrated. “What that looks like from the instructor core is that we are training everyone else in our flight to make sure they are proficient for those different skill sets that we advertise going down range. So, it's sort of a crawl, walk, run construct to where we start off with the easier mission sets and they get more and more complicated as we lead up to the validation and culmination exercise. What that looks like in the actual squadron, classrooms and flights is there's a lot more deliberate development from the top down as far as quantitative training objectives and how we measure ourselves from week to week.”
Since the 34th SOS is the test bed for SOFORGEN, this is Toledo’s first time experiencing it as a leader and a benefactor of the program. Toledo has deployed three separate times conducting the U-28 mission and commented on the kinks in the new system.
"Since we are the first squadron to do this, it comes with a set of challenges,” Toledo expounded. “I understand that there's manning issues and we're still trying to figure out how to get everyone through different upgrades while still balancing the individual side of the reset phase and taking leave. I think that moving forward with lessons learned between the four squadrons that we have, we'll be able to implement this a lot better.”
While recognizing that the SOFORGEN cycle has room for improvement; Toledo also commented on its value and some of the challenges that come with being a Quiet Professional.
“I think that the price of being a Quiet Professional is finding someone to talk to,” Toledo recalled. “A lot of the mission sets that are executed are not the easiest ones, but I think the squadrons and AFSOC as a whole have done a good job of making sure to support the individual, whether it's with mental health or with human performance. I think SOFORGEN specifically tailors the reset phase to take care of the individual more and I think it's facilitating it well.”
In addition to the emphasis on Airmen’s aspirations, AFSOC’s four-phase force generation cycle will aid Airmen by ensuring they’re mentally and tactically equipped to perform against near peer adversaries in austere environments.
Airmen await the arrival of a F-35B Lightning II before demonstrating a forward arming and refueling point, or FARP, at Duke Field, Florida, July 21, 2021. The Airmen belong to Special Operations Command which is currently investing in key technologies to create innovative solutions for the joint force and dilemmas for adversaries. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Janiqua P. Robinson)
Finely-Tuned, Hyper-Focused
Airmen await the arrival of a F-35B Lightning II before demonstrating a forward arming and refueling point, or FARP, at Duke Field, Florida, July 21, 2021. The Airmen belong to Special Operations Command which is currently investing in key technologies to create innovative solutions for the joint force and dilemmas for adversaries. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Janiqua P. Robinson)
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Photo By: Staff Sgt. Janiqua P. Robinson
VIRIN: 210721-F-LM051-0253
Agile Combat Employment
“Over the last 20 years, I will say about only a couple years after 9/11, we started establishing big presences in several countries,” Chen explained. “We're used to going into established locations where we have nice runways and where we have established support.”
Chen explained that established support may not be available at the start of the great power competition. Airmen will be charged with laying the foundations at these locations to be culturally aware and sensitive because the environment they’re operating in may not be politically or diplomatically permissive.
Agile Combat Employment, or ACE, will help eliminate this concern by allowing Airmen to perform any operation anytime, anywhere. ACE is an operational concept that requires networks of well-established and austere air bases, multi-capable Airmen, pre-postured equipment, and airlift to rapidly deploy and maneuver combat capabilities throughout the theater of war.
Airmen and a U.S. Marine prepare to service a F-35B Lightning II during a forward arming and refueling point, or FARP, demonstration at Duke Field, Florida, July 21, 2021. Capabilities like FARP are one way Air Force Special Operations Command ensures they’re Agile Combat Employment ready. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Janiqua P. Robinson)
Finely-Tuned, Hyper-Focused
Airmen and a U.S. Marine prepare to service a F-35B Lightning II during a forward arming and refueling point, or FARP, demonstration at Duke Field, Florida, July 21, 2021. Capabilities like FARP are one way Air Force Special Operations Command ensures they’re Agile Combat Employment ready. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Janiqua P. Robinson)
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Photo By: Staff Sgt. Janiqua P. Robinson
VIRIN: 210721-F-LM051-0321
“Traditionally, you have Airmen who are really technically proficient in their mission set and that is already a huge task. In the next fight, we may need to up their understanding of the battlespace even higher to a political and diplomatic level,” explained Chen, who also serves as a Foreign Area Officer. “What they do, what they say, how they act, how they carry out their mission, how they carry themselves, how they interact with our foreign partners in neutral or even hostile territories may have strategic and political impacts. That's why we need to train these leaders and Airmen to have that mindset, to be prepared, to handle themselves accordingly and have the knowledge, experience and expertise to still operate technically proficient, but also have that strategic diplomatic mindset; because those things have consequences.”
Chen explained his point of view that in the next era of great power competition there are nations that have not yet aligned with the U.S. or its adversaries but could be swayed to one side or the other through public discourse, not just military action.
"With the advent of social media and communications technology, we've realized that the actions of even people who are the average social media user, can have strategic impacts because what they do is broadcasted and shared around the world,” Chen illustrated. “Once that optic gets out it can be manipulated by our adversaries, or used by ourselves to bolster our message. So, it's definitely a double edged sword. Specifically for the U-28 or just AFSOC aircrews in general, as of right now I wouldn't say there is an overemphasis on that. I think we're probably at the nascent stage of learning about the strategic impact of individual Airmen's actions in the great power competition environment. “
Chen cited the reaction to a photo of hundreds of Afghanis inside a C-17 during the evacuation mission at Kabul Airport. Initial reactions were very mixed because while some people felt it wasn’t safe, others felt the U.S. was doing everything they could to ensure they would get everyone out ahead of the rapidly approaching deadline.
“I think the most striking part is sometimes our actions based on our best intentions can be spun by our adversaries or sometimes just the general public who are not on the U.S's side,” Chen elaborated. “There are always haters out there that just want to criticize. They will use that message and spin it how they want and so a lot of the double edged sword nature of this is based on intent of the actors and how they want to use this information.”
"I cannot imagine how difficult it was for those C-17 crews to make the decisions they did when both the lives of people and mission success were on the line and intertwined together,” Chen digressed. "Those are the moments I think training and education is crucial to mission success, because that's when the perception of how Airmen and military members representing the United States become very important. If not carefully managed, those can be seen in a bad light."
The Air Force is changing to ensure Airmen can thrive in these difficult and increasingly complicated scenarios.
For AFSOC, the implementation and execution of the SOFORGEN deployment cycle and updates to their tactics, technologies and procedures will aid every Airman in being ACE ready and relevant in the great power competition.
Two CV-22 Osprey park on the flightline as a C-146A Wolfhound flies overhead, at Duke Field, Florida, July 21, 2021. Air Force Special Operations Command leverages capabilities like FARP to ensure Airmen have multiple tools to accomplish a refueling mission in any environment, no matter how austere. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Janiqua P. Robinson)
Finely-Tuned, Hyper-Focused
Two CV-22 Osprey park on the flightline as a C-146A Wolfhound flies overhead, at Duke Field, Florida, July 21, 2021. Air Force Special Operations Command leverages capabilities like FARP to ensure Airmen have multiple tools to accomplish a refueling mission in any environment, no matter how austere. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Janiqua P. Robinson)
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Photo By: Staff Sgt. Janiqua P. Robinson
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24. Special Operations: Media Misinterpreting Marines (UK)
Conclusion:
Currently the American marines are undergoing a similar transformation and were eager to see up close what the Royal Marines had developed. The U.S. marines were impressed and adopted some of the new commando tactics. The American marines have long been doing this and sought to emulate the Royal Marines commando concept. The current U.S. marine reorganization is going in the same direction and Exercise Green Dagger gave them a chance to see how much difference the new British approach would make. The American marines weren’t defeated, they were convinced, as were their commanders.
Special Operations: Media Misinterpreting Marines
December 2, 2021: British media misinterpreted a joint training effort, Exercise Green Dagger, that British Royal Marine Commandos participated in along with American marines and troops from the Netherlands, Canada, and the UAE (United Arab Emirates). The five days of exercises covered a large number of different situations with participants alternating as the attacker or defender. The Royal Marines used some innovative new tactics to complete one exercise faster than expected and the U.S. marines they were working with suggested that portion of the exercise be reset (ended) rather than running out the clock. British tabloids interpreted that as the American marines surrendering.
Both the Royal Marines and American marines have been undergoing a lot of changes lately. Currently the Royal Marines are undergoing the most ambitious transformation and the purpose of the Exercise Green Dagger was for the participating countries to demonstrate and share what they had already developed.
Britain is implementing a Future Commando Force modernization that is still underway. Modernization includes new combat equipment, weapons, organizational concepts, and tactics. One example of the new organizational concepts are two new commando units called Royal Marines Vanguard Strike Companies (VSC). These have been in development for several years and are entering service during 2021. Each VSC consists of about 150 Royal Marine and army commando personnel, as well as some Royal Navy amphibious ships to operate from. One VSC is stationed in Bahrain (Persian Gulf) while the other is working with the Norwegian military to deal with the growing Russian threat in northern Europe. Personnel in each VSC will serve for six months and then be replaced by new personnel with the same skills and capabilities.
The VSCs are wearing the new, distinctly commando, combat uniform. In the past the commandos simply adopted current army uniforms, weapons, and equipment. That worked but the commandos noted that special operations troops in other nations had benefited from developing combat uniforms suited to their tasks. These uniforms were distinctive and that seemed to improve morale as well.
Other innovations include training commandos to operate in smaller units, often as small as four men. Modern communications and navigation gear makes this possible. But you must train using these new, smaller, combat groups and that is what the Royal Marines have been doing and were demonstrating in Exercise Green Dagger. These experiments contributed to the development of the VSC units, which are much more flexible than earlier commando combat units, which relied on larger basic combat groups of eight men. That approach was first developed by the SAS (Special Air Service) troops, who are now considered more capable, man for man, than the Marine and army commandos. The naval version of the SAS is the SBS (Special Boat Service) and is like the U.S. Navy SEALs. SBS is part of the Royal Marines. Like many industrialized nations, the more highly trained and equipped British “special operations forces” comprise about ten percent of the ground forces. Britain's Royal Marines, SAS and associated support units comprise nearly 9,000 personnel. The largest component is the Royal Marines.
The current British Commando Force is primarily the 3rd Commando Brigade, which consists of three Royal Marine Commandos (battalions) along with army commandos providing artillery, engineer, and logistics support units. There are also a growing number of army infantry commando troops that are often integrated into Royal Marine Commando units. The Royal Marines have long called their special operations battalions “commandos.” The British Army pioneered the development of modern commando operations during World War II but disbanded all its commando units after the war. The Royal Marines kept some of theirs. Eventually, all Royal Marine infantry units became commandos, as they are to this day.
The original British commandos were formed after France fell to the Germans in mid-1940. At that time, there were plenty of British soldiers eager to volunteer for a unit that was going to fight back right away. The major problem was the resistance of unit commanders reluctant to see their best troops volunteer for these new units. This was partly solved by forming two of the independent companies raised earlier in 1940 from reservists. These independent companies were sort of commandos, but mainly they were to be used when a small unit of infantry, like an infantry company has about 150 men, were needed to land in a coastal area and destroy something an approaching enemy might want, like port and communications facilities, air fields and so on. These independent companies were formed using men who had been discharged from the army over the past few years after completing their seven-year enlistments and agreed to join the reserves. These men were thus experienced, a little older (and wiser) and not already part of a unit that didn't want to lose them. Most infantry units would like to have these fellows, but the high command had the backing of the prime minister to see if this commando idea would work.
The eleven Independent Companies were used for raids from the sea against German facilities, or small garrisons, in Norway. First use was in May 1940 as four of these companies took part in the British operations around Narvik, Norway. There were already many officers in the army who were open to the idea of commandos. But the "Independent Companies" were just volunteer infantrymen, who were willing to undertake very risky raiding operations. It was a start.
The British had a tradition, especially over the previous two centuries, of creating raiding type units for special operations. Because of that tradition the World War II commandos were not seen as totally alien. Officers who served in Britain's numerous colonies had developed and used raiding type operations to deal with bandits or guerillas. British historians made much of the British success with Rangers in North America both before and during the American Revolution. There were light infantry units during the campaigns against Napoleon in Spain in the early 19th century. More recent commando examples were provided by South African Boers at the end of the 19th century, German colonel von Lettow Vorbeck's Askaris in Africa during World War I, and the German stormtroopers at the end of World War I. All this had made a strong impression on the World War II generation of British generals. While some commanders muttered about commandos being private armies, there was enough enthusiasm for the project to see it get going with a minimum of interference. Prime minister Churchill was also a fan, which helped.
Initially, each "commando" was a battalion size unit of some 600 men, with the fighting elements being ten fifty-man troops (a British term for platoons). In early 1941 this was changed to six troops of 65 men each. This was dictated by the capacity of the newly developed amphibious landing craft the troops used on many of their raids. An assault landing craft (LCA) could hold 35 troops (or 800 pounds of equipment), so each commando troop needed two LCAs.
By the end of the war, Britain had ten army "commandos" (as all commando battalions were called), and all were disbanded, along with all other commando units (like the SAS). The Royal Marines kept three of their nine commandos. The British revived the even more elite SAS (army Special Air Service) and SBS (navy Special Boat Service) in the 1950s, but the Royal Marine Commandos have the distinction of being the longest serving commando unit. The Royal Marines themselves date back to the 17th century when they were created to provide warships with some professional soldiers. Other nations followed in adopting that practice and later did the same with the British version of 20th century special operations forces.
Currently the American marines are undergoing a similar transformation and were eager to see up close what the Royal Marines had developed. The U.S. marines were impressed and adopted some of the new commando tactics. The American marines have long been doing this and sought to emulate the Royal Marines commando concept. The current U.S. marine reorganization is going in the same direction and Exercise Green Dagger gave them a chance to see how much difference the new British approach would make. The American marines weren’t defeated, they were convinced, as were their commanders.
25. US officials say humanitarian effort in Syria is another means to counter ISIS (US SOF)
US officials say humanitarian effort in Syria is another means to counter ISIS
CNN · by Barbara Starr, CNN Pentagon Correspondent
(CNN)United States special operations forces in northeastern Syria have been quietly visiting local villages to help provide medical care to communities which have seen little health care in the wake of years of war.
The visits are done in partnership with the Syrian Defense Forces, (SDF) which operate in the region alongside the US in a years-long effort to root out any ISIS fighters.
The medical visits are seen by the US as part of the effort to work with SDF to bring stability to the area, so ISIS cannot take hold, a defense official directly familiar with the program told CNN. Overall, there are about 900 US troops in Syria.
US officials insist the humanitarian effort is not "mission creep," because the focus is to provide another means to counter ISIS. But it is a step beyond the initial troop deployment by former US President Donald Trump, aimed at his goal of seizing oil field revenue in the region.
US officials are emphasizing the medical work is led by SDF, and US forces work under them. However, security remains a sensitive question given ISIS, Russian and regime forces operate at times in the region. All US troops provide their own security.
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The US special operations personnel participated in two medical visits in Deir Ezzor in northeast Syria in November, according to Major Charles An, a spokesperson for the Special Operations Joint Task Force-Levant which provides the US troops.
The area has seen extensive fighting in recent years. The troops examined and treated almost 200 patients at hospital locations and helped distribute medical supplies, according to An.
Local residents had been traveling several hours to the nearest health care providers because Deir Ezzor largely only had first aid services after years of conflict.
So far there have been seven medical visits in the last year including the two from last month, according to An.
While US special operations forces have long done humanitarian relief missions in conflict zones and underserved communities, the efforts in Syria come as the Pentagon has been rethinking the use of forces in the wake of the withdrawal from Afghanistan.
This summer all special operations activities in Syria, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon and Egypt were consolidated under a renamed headquarters now called Special Operations Joint Task Force-Levant. The renaming is an effort to recognize terrorist and violent extremist organizations are operating across broad areas which require a more regional approach according to Lt. Col. Tony Hoefler, spokesperson for US Special Operations Command Central.
But what remains unresolved so far is a comprehensive way ahead on how and when US troops might conduct counterterrorism drone strikes from so-called "over the horizon" bases far from where targets are located in the wake of a strike in Kabul that inadvertently killed several civilians just as the US was withdrawing from the country. Several defense officials say the issue of a long term way ahead on those types of missions in still ongoing.
CNN · by Barbara Starr, CNN Pentagon Correspondent
V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
