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Quotes of the Day:
"For me, to be a true thinker is to express your thoughts, so whether by means of literature,
other writings, theater, or film, a thinker's message could be transmitted to a certain public."
- Yoshishige Yoshida
"Two percent of the people think,
Three percent of the people Think they think,
And ninety-five percent of the people would rather die than Think."
- George Bernard Shaw
"I know nothing in the world has as much power as a word.
Sometimes I write one, and I look at it, until it begins to shine."
_ Emily Dickinson
1. north Korea and Influence Operations
2. U.S. reaffirms ironclad commitment to security of S. Korea in bilateral talks
3. JCS chief inspects border island unit, calls for 'overwhelming' security posture
4. U.S. needs to show firm commitment to defense of S. Korea: Rep. Young Kim
5. N. Korean leader calls for strong defense power in meeting with army activists
6. S. Korean ministry says N. Korea's food shortages apparently worsening
7. Why Is North Korea Showing Off Its ICBMs?
8. North shakes up leadership of army ground forces
9. Fact Check: Did North Korea display most nuclear weapons ever at parade?
10. N. Korea holds lectures for party cadres to spark innovation in ideological education
11. No queen in waiting likely to rule North Korea’s ‘Kimdom’
12. Widespread North Korean Famine Under Wraps Amid Dictatorial Displays
13. A new TikTok account purporting to show 'life in North Korea' has amassed over 60,000 followers in 3 days
14. S. Korea to send medical team, more aid materials to Turkey: ministry.
15. S. Korean, Mongolian PMs hold talks on rare earths, infrastructure
16. Healthcare in the Crosshairs of North Korean Cyber Operations
1. north Korea and Influence Operations
The podcast is at this link: https://information-professionals.org/episode/cognitive-crucible-episode-135/
Links to other resources are below.
#135 DAVE MAXWELL ON NORTH KOREA AND INFLUENCE OPERATIONS
The Cognitive Crucible is a forum that presents different perspectives and emerging thought leadership related to the information environment. The opinions expressed by guests are their own, and do not necessarily reflect the views of or endorsement by the Information Professionals Association.
During this episode, Dave Maxwell discusses the importance of human rights upfront, influence campaigns, the pursuit of a free and unified Korea, resting on a foundation of deterrence and defense in the context of countering North Korea.
Research Questions: Dave suggests technologies be developed which help Western governments access and penetrate North Korea. Also, he believes the potential succession in North Korea is an important research area, as well as mapping out the entire human terrain of key personalities and communicators. He also asks: how can we use defectors and escapees to help with the above research projects and bridge the North and the South. Finally, Dave thinks these “big 5” questions related to North Korea are important:
- What do we want to achieve in Korea?
- What is the acceptable durable political arrangement that will protect, serve, and advance US and ROK/US Alliance interests on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia?
- Who does Kim fear more: The US or the Korean people in the north? (Note it is the Korean people armed with information knowledge of life in South Korea)
- Do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime?
- In support of that strategy do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula? Has KJU given up his divide to conquer strategy – divide the alliance to conquer the ROK?
Resources:
Guest Bio: David Maxwell is a retired US Army Special Forces Colonel and has spent more than 30 years in Asia as a practitioner and specializes in North Korea and East Asia Security Affairs and irregular, unconventional, and political warfare. He is the Editor of Small Wars Journal. He is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Senior Fellow at the Global Peace Foundation (where he focuses on a free and unified Korea), and a Senior Advisor to the Center for Asia Pacific Strategy.
About: The Information Professionals Association (IPA) is a non-profit organization dedicated to exploring the role of information activities, such as influence and cognitive security, within the national security sector and helping to bridge the divide between operations and research. Its goal is to increase interdisciplinary collaboration between scholars and practitioners and policymakers with an interest in this domain.
For more information, please contact us at communications@information-professionals.org.
Or, connect directly with The Cognitive Crucible podcast host, John Bicknell, on LinkedIn.
Here are the four books I mentioned. I added the work of fiction (Orphan Master’s Son) because it really “operationalizes” the north Korean society and the Songbun system. I also included the entire list below it.
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North Korea in a Nutshell: A Contemporary Overview By Kongdan Oh and Ralph Hassig. Many fine and useful area studies have been done by the CIA and the DIA, the military services, and even the historical Special Operations Research Office (SORO) at American University. In Special Forces we depend on area studies for fundamental knowledge of target countries. I am confident I have read every area study on north Korea. With no disrespect intended to these fine organizations, there is no better area study than North Korea in A Nutshell.
But this is no dry area study. This is a very well written book that flows smoothly, and while filled with critical facts about the regime, it provides context for these facts and offers perspectives that help the reader to understand how the geography, history, culture, and the regime’s revolutionary thinking influence policy, strategy, and actions. This is a must read first priority book. https://www.amazon.com/North-Korea-Nutshell-Contemporary-Overview/dp/1538151383
- Marked For Life: Songbun: The North Korean Social Classification System, by Robert Collins, published by the Committee for Human Rights North Korean the seminal work on how the north Korean society is organized and managed by the Kim Family Regime. Much of the research is based on first person interviews in Korean with more than 75 defectors as well as many primary source documents from north Korea.
- The Orphan Master’s Son, by Adam Johnson. Pulitzer Prize work of fiction that despite a rather far fetched plot really “operationalizes” and brings to life the social system described by Robert Collins work on Songbun.
- Becoming Kim Jong-un: A Former CIA Officer’s Insights into North Korea’s Enigmatic Young Dictator. By Dr. Jung H. Pak. Arguably the best biography of Kim Jong-un.
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Army of the Indoctrinated: The Suryong, the Soldier, and Information in the KPA, George Hutchinson Apr 26, 2022 HRNK, https://www.hrnk.org/uploads/pdfs/Hutchinson_KPA_web_0426.pdf
Books and papers to consider reading (not in any order of priority):
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North Korea in a Nutshell: A Contemporary Overview By Kongdan Oh and Ralph Hassig. Many fine and useful area studies have been done by the CIA and the DIA, the military services, and even the historical Special Operations Research Office (SORO) at American University. In Special Forces we depend on area studies for fundamental knowledge of target countries. I am confident I have read every area study on north Korea. With no disrespect intended to these fine organizations, there is no better area study than North Korea in A Nutshell.
- Korea on the Brink – GEN (RET) John Wickham – although dated it is illustrative of the complexity of the Korean situation. Probably the only memoir of a US Korea commander in the last 30 years.
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Red Rogue: The Persistent Challenge of North Korea, by Bruce Bechtol – excellent analysis of the north Korean military threat.
- Defiant Failed State: The North Korean Threat to International Security, by Bruce Bechtol – analysis of the regime, instability, attack and collapse as well as its illicit activities.
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Criminal Sovereignty: Understanding North Korea’s Illicit International Activities, by Paul Rexton Kan, Bruce E. Bechtol Jr. and Robert M. Collins – one of the best analyses of north Koreas illicit activities from proliferation to drugs, counterfeiting, and money laundering, etc.
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Over the Line : North Korea’s Negotiating Strategy – by Chuck Downs. Best insights into how north Korea negotiates. Best current companion to Admiral C. Turner Joy’s books- Negotiating While Fighting: Diary of Admiral C.Turner Joy at the Korean Armistice Conference (Hoover archival documentaries) and How Communists Negotiate.
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North Korean Special Forces (Naval Institute Special Warfare Series) by Joseph S. Bermudez Jr.
- Guerrilla Dynasty (2d edition) by Adrian Buzo – Best understanding of the north Korean regime. Example quote (about how Kim Il Sung established the north Korean regime):
In the course of this struggle against factional opponents, for the first time Kim began to emphasize nationalism as a means of rallying the population to the enormous sacrifices needed for post-war recovery. This was a nationalism that first took shape in the environment of the anti-Japanese guerrilla movement and developed into a creed through the destruction of both the non-Communist nationalist forces and much of the leftist intellectual tradition of the domestic Communists. Kim’s nationalism did not draw inspiration from Korean history, nor did it dwell on past cultural achievements, for the serious study of history and traditional culture soon effectively ceased in the DPRK [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea]. Rather, DPRK nationalism drew inspiration from the Spartan outlook of the former Manchurian guerrillas. It was a harsh nationalism that dwelt on past wrongs and promises of retribution for “national traitors” and their foreign backers. DPRK nationalism stressed the “purity” of all things Korean against the “contamination” of foreign ideas, and inculcated in the population a sense of fear and animosity toward the outside world. Above all, DPRK nationalism stressed that the guerrilla ethos was not only the supreme, but also the only legitimate basis on which to reconstitute a reunified Korea. (emphasis added)
- Paper: “Patterns of Collapse” by Robert Collins. This paper is a summary of Mr. Collins thesis on the 7 Phases of north Korean collapse and is the foundation for the analysis of indications and warnings of north Korean instability and regime collapse.
- “North Korea’s Strategy” by Stephen Bradner, Mr. Bradner is the Special Advisor to the Commander of UNC/CFC/USFK and has been in Korea since 1955 serving the command and has retired in 2013 and will not be replaced. This is the best synopsis of the north Korean regime and its strategy.
- The Cleanest Race: How North Koreans See Themselves — And Why It Matters B.R. Myers. One of the most important books for understanding north Korea, the regime, and the Korean people.
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The Two Koreas: Revised And Updated A Contemporary History by Don Oberdorfer – probably one of the best popular overviews of the history of Korea. Provides a good historical foundation.
- Marked For Life: Songbun: The North Korean Social Classification System, by Robert Collins, published by the Committee for Human Rights North Korean the seminal work on how the north Korean society is organized and managed by the Kim Family Regime. Much of the research is based on first person interviews in Korean with more than 75 defectors as well as many primary source documents from north Korea.
- The Orphan Master’s Son, by Adam Johnson. Pulitzer Prize work of fiction that despite a rather far fetched plot really “operationalizes” and brings to life the social system described by Robert Collins work on Songbun.
- Coercion, Control, Surveillance, and Punishment: An Examination of the North Korea Police State: Second Edition by Ken Gause published by the Committee on North Korean Human Rights. Like Robert Collins work this provides tremendous insights into how north Korea is organized and run.
- The Last Days of Kim Jong Il, by Dr. Bruce Bechtol, 2013. Just published describes the transition from Kim Jong Il to Kim Jong –un with current analysis up through the February 2013 nuclear test.
- Brothers At War: The Unending Conflict (2013) in Korea by Sheila Miyoshi Jager. This is the best book recently published on the comprehensive history of the Korean conflict.
- Becoming Kim Jong-un: A Former CIA Officer’s Insights into North Korea’s Enigmatic Young Dictator. By Dr. Jung H. Pak. Arguably the best biography of Kim Jong-un.
- The Hidden People of North Korea: Everyday Life in the Hermit Kingdom 2d Edition, (2015) by Ralph Hassig and Kongdan Oh
- North Korean House of Cards, (2015) Ken Gause, published by HRNK.
- Pyongyang Republic; The Capital of Human Right Denial (2016) Robert Collins, published by HRNK.
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Theater-level Command and Alliance Decision-Making Architecture in Korea (2016) Colonel Shawn P. Creamer, U.S. Army. The best description of Korean command relationships that has been published. http://icks.org/n/data/ijks/1498534150_add_file_3.pdf
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Army of the Indoctrinated: The Suryong, the Soldier, and Information in the KPA, George Hutchinson Apr 26, 2022 HRNK, https://www.hrnk.org/uploads/pdfs/Hutchinson_KPA_web_0426.pdf
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The United Nations Command and the Sending States (2016)Colonel Shawn P. Creamer, U.S. Army, http://icks.org/n/data/ijks/2017FW-4.pdf
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The Organization and Guidance Department: The Control Tower of Human Rights Denial Robert Collins, (2019) (https://www.hrnk.org/uploads/pdfs/Collins_OGD_Web.pdf)
- North Korean Military Proliferation in the Middle East and Africa: Enabling Violence and Instability by Bruce E. Bechtol Jr. No one knows more about north Korean proliferation than Dr. Bechtol and this is a critical national security issues that is too often ignored.
2. U.S. reaffirms ironclad commitment to security of S. Korea in bilateral talks
Excerpts:
"Deputy Secretary Sherman reaffirmed that the U.S.' commitment to the defense of South Korea and extended deterrence is ironclad, and the two sides agreed to further step up their efforts to increase the effectiveness of U.S. extended deterrence through the Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group (EDSCG) to be held this year," the ministry said in a press release.
Extended deterrence refers to the U.S. commitment to use all its defense capabilities, including nuclear, to help defend its allies.
Seoul and Washington reactivated their bilateral EDSCG late last year after a five-year suspension.
Cho and Sherman stressed the need to fully implement existing United Nations Security Council sanctions on North Korea to rein in Pyongyang's advancing nuclear and missile capabilities, while agreeing to intensify their joint efforts to curb illicit cyber activities by North Korea.
(2nd LD) U.S. reaffirms ironclad commitment to security of S. Korea in bilateral talks | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · February 15, 2023
(ATTN: UPDATES with remarks from Vice Foreign Minister Cho, additional information)
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, Feb. 14 (Yonhap) -- U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to the security and defense of South Korea in talks with her South Korean counterpart Tuesday, Seoul's foreign ministry said.
Sherman also underscored the "ironclad" U.S. commitment to providing extended deterrence in a bilateral meeting with South Korea's First Vice Foreign Minister Cho Hyun-dong, according to the ministry.
"The two vice ministers reaffirmed that the complete denuclearization of North Korea is the top priority of South Korea and the U.S., and agreed to continue cooperation between the two countries for 'real peace' on the Korean Peninsula," it said in a press release.
South Korean First Vice Foreign Minister Cho Hyun-dong (L) and U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman pose for a photo during their bilateral talks in Washington on Feb. 14, 2023, in this photo provided by South Korea's foreign ministry. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
The bilateral meeting came one day after Cho and Sherman held trilateral talks with their Japanese counterpart, Takeo Mori.
In a joint press availability following Monday's meeting, the South Korean diplomat had insisted that peace without complete denuclearization of North Korea is "fake peace."
"Deputy Secretary Sherman reaffirmed that the U.S.' commitment to the defense of South Korea and extended deterrence is ironclad, and the two sides agreed to further step up their efforts to increase the effectiveness of U.S. extended deterrence through the Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group (EDSCG) to be held this year," the ministry said in a press release.
Extended deterrence refers to the U.S. commitment to use all its defense capabilities, including nuclear, to help defend its allies.
Seoul and Washington reactivated their bilateral EDSCG late last year after a five-year suspension.
Cho and Sherman stressed the need to fully implement existing United Nations Security Council sanctions on North Korea to rein in Pyongyang's advancing nuclear and missile capabilities, while agreeing to intensify their joint efforts to curb illicit cyber activities by North Korea.
The U.S. National Security Council has said the North funds up to 30 percent of its resources for its illegal weapons development programs through illicit cyber activities, such as cryptocurrency heists and money laundering, also noting the country had stolen up to US$1 billion in cryptocurrency as of end-2022.
Pyongyang fired an unprecedented 69 ballistic missiles last year, far surpassing its previous record of 25 ballistic missiles launched in a single year.
Seoul and Washington have noted the North may also conduct a nuclear test "at any time," saying the country appears to have completed all preparations for a nuclear test.
A nuclear test, if conducted, would be the seventh of its kind by North Korea. The country conducted its sixth and last nuclear test in September 2017.
Cho and Sherman also agreed to continue expanding cooperation between their countries in the year that marks the 70th anniversary of the U.S.-South Korea alliance, to a point where the people of both countries can enjoy the benefits of the alliance, the ministry said.
To this end, Deputy Secretary Sherman said the U.S. will continue to work to address South Korea's concerns over U.S. tax benefits afforded to electric vehicles assembled in North America under the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, it added.
First Vice Foreign Minister Cho Hyun-dong (R) and U.S. Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl pose for a photo during their meeting in Washington on Feb. 14, 2023, in this photo provided by the South Korean foreign ministry. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
Cho also met with U.S. Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl, and the two stressed the importance of strengthening the countries' joint defense against North Korea's evolving threats, according to the foreign ministry.
They "agreed on the importance of strengthening U.S. extended deterrence while maintaining strong U.S.-South Korea joint defense posture against unprecedented advancements in North Korea's nuclear and missile threats," it said of the meeting.
Under Secretary Kahl reaffirmed U.S. commitment to extended deterrence, and the two agreed to enhance the effectiveness of U.S. extended deterrence, it added.
Meeting with reporters later, Cho said his talks with his U.S. and Japanese counterparts here highlighted the deepening cooperation between the three countries.
"The vice ministerial talks held yesterday reaffirmed the countries' commitment to their joint objective of denuclearizing North Korea and to trilateral cooperation to firmly react to North Korean threats," he said, while also noting the trilateral meeting marked the third of its kind to be held since President Yoon Suk Yeol took office in May 2022.
Cho insisted the trilateral cooperation has also widened since the South Korean president took office.
"While the joint statement from the meeting in June largely focused on North Korea, it talks not only about the North Korean nuclear threat but also about supply chains, technology cooperation, global health and development this time, showing that the trilateral cooperation is expanding both in size and depth," he said, referring to his first trilateral meeting with his U.S. and Japanese counterparts held in Seoul in June 2022.
bdk@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · February 15, 2023
3. JCS chief inspects border island unit, calls for 'overwhelming' security posture
JCS chief inspects border island unit, calls for 'overwhelming' security posture | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 채윤환 · February 15, 2023
SEOUL, Feb. 15 (Yonhap) -- South Korea's top military officer instructed troops to acquire capabilities that will allow the "overwhelming" punishment of enemy forces during an inspection of a Marine Corps unit on a northwestern border island Wednesday, his office said.
Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) Chairman Gen. Kim Seung-kyum gave the instruction as he led virtual discussions with senior field officers during the visit to the 6th Marine Brigade headquarters on Baengnyeong Island in the Yellow Sea, according to the JCS.
The participants in the discussions included those from the Navy's Fleet Command, the North West Islands Defense Command and the Army's Special Warfare Command.
Kim's visit to the border island comes a day after he inspected the Army's front-line troops in the country's central region.
Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Kim Seung-kyum (C) and other military officers engage in security discussions during his visit to the 6th Marine Brigade headquarters on the northwestern border island of Baengnyeong on Feb. 15, 2023, in this photo released by his office. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
yunhwanchae@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by 채윤환 · February 15, 2023
4. U.S. needs to show firm commitment to defense of S. Korea: Rep. Young Kim
Does Rep. Kim have a military advisor? Sigh...
What does she think takes place at the Security Consultative Meetings? What does she think takes place at the ministerial talks?
Do we really need "one man" to address north Korean issues? We have entrer staffs and senior officials at State, DOD, the NSC Staff , etc., focusing on north Korean issues.
Stronger stance? - we are conducting more military activities focused on north Korea than we have in the past 7 years.
Excerpts:
"I believe the U.S. needs to take a stronger stance against North Korean threats. As I said, North Korea is firing more ballistic missiles than ever before. Therefore, unless we take this North Korea issue seriously and intensify sanctions, there can be more serious challenges to the nuclear security in the Indo-Pacific region," she said.
To this end, Kim stressed the need for the U.S. government to appoint a special envoy to work solely on North Korea issues.
Sung Kim, U.S. ambassador to Indonesia, is concurrently serving as U.S. special envoy for North Korea.
"Because the North Korea issue is very important, I believe one person wearing two hats cannot effectively address the issue," said Kim. "I do give credit to Sung Kim and his abilities but believe we need a separate special envoy who can work solely on North Korea issues while he (Sung Kim) focuses on his work as ambassador to Indonesia."
U.S. needs to show firm commitment to defense of S. Korea: Rep. Young Kim | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · February 15, 2023
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, Feb. 14 (Yonhap) -- The United States needs to better demonstrate to South Korea its commitment to helping defend its ally against any attack, a U.S. lawmaker said.
Rep. Young Kim (R-CA) also stressed the need for the U.S. to demonstrate its resolve to use all means necessary to defend its allies, so that their enemies will think twice before making provocations.
"As the U.S. continues to modernize its weapons in accordance with international laws, it must also tell its allies that we have the capabilities to help defend them and that we can be there for our allies when they are attacked," Kim said in a recent telephone interview with Yonhap News Agency, adding, "That is what has successfully deterred nuclear attacks against the U.S. and its allies over the past 75 years."
"Still, the U.S. must continue to advance its weapons under international regulations and also continue to reassure our allies in the Pacific that the U.S. is ready to help defend its allies against North Korean provocations," she added.
Youtube
https://youtu.be/WXDv5ercaT8
Rep. Young Kim (L) poses for a photo with South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin during their meeting in Washington on Feb. 2, 2023, in this photo provided by the South Korean foreign ministry. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
Some in South Korea have voiced a need for Seoul to consider developing its own nuclear weapons against North Korea's evolving nuclear threats, apparently casting doubt over the credibility of U.S. commitment to helping defend South Korea under U.S. extended deterrence.
Extended deterrence refers to U.S. commitment to use all available capabilities, including nuclear weapons, when necessary to defend its ally.
Pyongyang conducted an unprecedented 69 ballistic missile tests last year, marking a new record number of ballistic missiles fired in a single year. Its previous record was at 25.
"The U.S. must show leadership that our allies can depend on us and believe that we will be there for them when they face any problem," said Kim, who currently serves as chair of the House Foreign Relation Committee Subcommittee on Indo-Pacific.
Kim also stressed the need to demonstrate U.S. commitment to defending its allies to adversaries, saying, "We need to make sure that allies can trust us, so adversaries can fear us."
The U.S. lawmakers also underscored the need to hold North Korea accountable for its recent missile provocations.
"I believe the U.S. needs to take a stronger stance against North Korean threats. As I said, North Korea is firing more ballistic missiles than ever before. Therefore, unless we take this North Korea issue seriously and intensify sanctions, there can be more serious challenges to the nuclear security in the Indo-Pacific region," she said.
To this end, Kim stressed the need for the U.S. government to appoint a special envoy to work solely on North Korea issues.
Sung Kim, U.S. ambassador to Indonesia, is concurrently serving as U.S. special envoy for North Korea.
"Because the North Korea issue is very important, I believe one person wearing two hats cannot effectively address the issue," said Kim. "I do give credit to Sung Kim and his abilities but believe we need a separate special envoy who can work solely on North Korea issues while he (Sung Kim) focuses on his work as ambassador to Indonesia."
bdk@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · February 15, 2023
5. N. Korean leader calls for strong defense power in meeting with army activists
Please do not say that Military First Politics (Songgun) no longer exists in north Korea.
N. Korean leader calls for strong defense power in meeting with army activists | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · February 15, 2023
SEOUL, Feb. 15 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has called for the strengthening of the country's defense during a meeting with local activists who support the nation's army, according to Pyongyang's state media Wednesday.
Kim made the remarks in a photo session Tuesday with "activists in the traits of assisting the army," who were invited to Pyongyang as special delegates to last week's military parade marking the 75th founding anniversary of the armed forces, according to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
Kim praised them as patriots who are well aware "that the building of a powerful nation can be unthinkable without the powerful national defense and that assisting the army is the most vivid expression of patriotism," the KCNA said in an English-language report.
After attending the military parade, the group visited the mausoleum of Kim's late grandfather and father, and also toured other major sites in Pyongyang.
Observers said the North's special treatment of such activists appears to be aimed at eliciting public support for the regime's plan to bolster spending on defense despite the economic hardships driven by global sanctions and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Youtube
https://youtu.be/58TAXY-YkFM
This image, captured from footage of North Korea's Korean Central Television on Feb. 12, 2023, shows residents supporting the army, called "activists in the traits of assisting the army," touring a facility related to the country's armed forces in Pyongyang, after they attended a military parade to mark the 75th founding anniversary of the Korean People's Army. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
sooyeon@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · February 15, 2023
6. S. Korean ministry says N. Korea's food shortages apparently worsening
We need to be watching for indicators of internal instability that could lead to regime collapse, especially within the military.
Excerpt:
The Dong-A Ilbo, a daily newspaper, reported Wednesday the North has cut daily rations to soldiers to 580 grams from 620 grams per person, marking the first reduction in the 2000s.
S. Korean ministry says N. Korea's food shortages apparently worsening | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · February 15, 2023
SEOUL, Feb. 15 (Yonhap) -- North Korea's food shortages appear to be worsening, South Korea's unification ministry said Wednesday, amid a news report that the North has recently cut rations to the military.
The North has acknowledged the seriousness of its food shortages as it has called agricultural development a "very urgent" task for this year, according to the ministry handling inter-Korean affairs.
The Dong-A Ilbo, a daily newspaper, reported Wednesday the North has cut daily rations to soldiers to 580 grams from 620 grams per person, marking the first reduction in the 2000s.
Speaking at a parliamentary committee session, Unification Minister Kwon Young-se said the North is said to have asked the World Food Program to offer food assistance, as its food crisis has been apparently deteriorating.
"But the North's situation does not seem to have reached a point where people are dying of starvation, something like what was seen during the Arduous March (in the 1990s)," Kwon said.
North Korea plans to hold a plenary party meeting late this month to solely discuss food issues, which observers said points to its urgent need to tackle a food crisis.
The North is known for chronic food shortages that have been apparently aggravated in recent years amid global sanctions for its nuclear and missile programs, unfavorable weather and border lockdowns caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Youtube
https://youtu.be/cqUBJhB0Heo
North Koreans farm in North Hwanghae Province, in this file photo, taken May 13, 2022, from the Odusan Unification Tower in the South Korean border city of Paju, 28 kilometers north of Seoul. (Yonhap)
sooyeon@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by 김수연 · February 15, 2023
7. Why Is North Korea Showing Off Its ICBMs?
Important analysis from Dr. Bennett and Dr Kim. There is a lot to consider in this article.
One thing that I think needs focus is on the regime trying to build its nuclear and missile threats to try to drive the ROK to go nuclear and undermine ROK confidence in US extended deterrence. If we understand the regime's strategy to split the alliance and drive US forces from the peninsula to create conditions for the regime to more effectively coerce the South or to be able to use force to achieve its objectives, we can see the logic in showing off all the weapons in the parade.
Why Is North Korea Showing Off Its ICBMs?
19fortyfive.com · by Bruce W. Bennett and Young-jun Kim · February 14, 2023
On February 8, the 75th anniversary of the founding of the North Korean Army, North Korea held a military parade in Pyongyang to call both external and internal attention to the strengths of the North’s military weapons. That parade climaxed with what appeared to be 11 Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and 5 large cannisters which some postulate contained a new North Korean solid-fuel ICBM. The North had never before shown as many as 11 ICBMs in a single parade, let alone 16.
The Simple Reasons
Why is North Korea showing off its ICBMs? North Korean leader Kim Jong-un could have many reasons for doing so. The simplest reason is that Kim is a largely failing leader of North Korea, unable to provide adequate food, energy, or consumer goods for his people, and being totally brutal in his efforts to control his elites. He may believe, therefore, that he has to illustrate that he is still a powerful leader, and nuclear weapons, especially ones delivered by ICBMs, make him look relatively powerful. North Korean media claimed that the parade, “demonstrated the country’s ‘greatest nuclear strike capability’.”
The paraded ICBMs also generate considerable outside media attention, which appears very important to Kim for personal purposes, but it also illustrated to his people that he is an important world leader. With the United States thoroughly focused on the Russian invasion of Ukraine and on threats from China, U.S. President Biden did not even mention North Korea in his 2023 State of the Union address. The parading of North Korean ICBMs may have sought to regain a level of media attention for Kim.
North Korea Is Deterring U.S. “Aggression”
Kim’s ICBMs may also have been there for deterrence purposes. For many years, Kim has claimed that he has been building nuclear weapons and their delivery means to deter attacks on North Korea by the United States and South Korea. While North Korea could threaten the 150,000 or so Americans living in South Korea with the theater missiles he has been developing, Kim apparently wants ICBMs to apply a direct deterrent threat against the United States, likely using a variation of the assured destruction concept that the United States used to deter attacks by the Soviet Union during the Cold War—a threat to target the population and industry, expecting that such costs would deter U.S. action.
Depending upon the North Korean nuclear weapon technology, North Korean Hwasong-17s in the parade could each potentially carry three or so nuclear warheads, and each nuclear warhead could have an explosive power (yield) at least as great as the nuclear weapon North Korea demonstrated in its sixth nuclear test (about 230 kilotons). Of course, North Korea has threatened to do a seventh and subsequent nuclear weapon tests, some of which may be designed to verify the performance of even more powerful nuclear warheads.
According to the Nukemap online nuclear weapon effects calculation system, a nuclear weapon of this yield could kill and seriously injure three million or so people in New York City or Seoul. In other U.S. or Korean cities with lower population density, this yield weapon would more likely kill or seriously injure about one million people. The threat of even a single nuclear warhead of such yield detonating on a U.S. city would presumably be highly likely to deter a U.S. president from wanting to attack North Korea out of the blue.
Because not all North Korean ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons will work, and because the United States has missile defenses for both the U.S. homeland and Korea, North Korea probably needs a force of five or so ICBMs (carrying 15 or more nuclear warheads) to have a high confidence of being able to deliver at least one of the warheads to a U.S. city and thus to be able to deter U.S. aggression. But Kim just displayed much more than that number, suggesting that he envisions using his nuclear ICBM force for much more than defensive purposes.
Similarly Kim has recently announced that he plans to build 30 KN-25 missile launchers, each carrying 6 missiles with a tactical nuclear warhead, or a total of 180 tactical nuclear warheads. With a range of less than 400 km, the KN-25 could only be used against targets in South Korea or parts of China. Some 180 nuclear warheads would be incredible overkill for posing an assured destruction threat against South Korea. After Kim had his military launch 23 ballistic missiles in a single day in October 2022, the North announced that the launches were intended to simulate North Korean nuclear weapon launches designed to neutralize South Korean airfields, and destroy South Korean ports and military command and control—no longer basic deterrence.
Kim Seeking to Break U.S. Nuclear Assurance of South Korea
The combined North Korean overkill being developed to challenge both South Korea and the United States suggests that Kim is building a nuclear force also for coercive and compellent purposes. In particular, Kim appears anxious to exploit an example from the Soviet Cold War playbook, as ROK President Yoon Suk-yeol has recently pointed out.
Starting in the late-1950s, the Soviet Union posed initially a bomber and eventually an ICBM threat with nuclear weapons against the U.S. homeland. At that time, the United States offered a “nuclear umbrella” extended deterrence commitment to its NATO allies, similar to the nuclear umbrella it has promised to South Korea today. But France did not find the U.S. nuclear umbrella to be credible because the Soviets would have use nuclear weapons to retaliate against U.S. cities—French President Charles de Gaulle said that the United States was not prepared to trade New York City for Paris. Therefore, France needed its own independent nuclear weapon force to protect French security. France largely broke from the NATO military alliance.
Kim also may hope to break the South Korea/U.S. alliance by threatening nuclear weapon use against the United States if the United States uses nuclear weapons to support South Korea. Would the United States be willing to trade New York City or Los Angeles to secure Seoul? A considerable degree of skepticism appears to be growing in South Korea.
Were the North’s Paraded “ICBMs” Real
North Korea is a land of deception, a third-world country that tries to make itself appear to be a first-world country. Even Kim Il-sung, Kim Jong-un’s grandfather, carried out major deceptions, for example building the façade, “Potemkin village” of Kijong-dong in the Korean Demilitarized Zone to encourage South Korean defections.
So it is appropriate to ask whether the ICBMs shown by North Korea were real—a real capability posing a threat to the United States. While we do not know for sure, we do know that the Russians long-used fake missiles to scare the West and create the illusion of power, while avoiding damage to real missiles by parading them. North Korea picked up this procedure with the ICBMs it showed in parades in 2012. “North Korea is well known for displaying missile mock-ups at parades, and little can be discerned until flight testing can be observed.”
And even once a missile is flight-tested, that only proves that the North can make that kind of missile. To enhance its deterrence and coercion, Kim clearly wants to show more Hwasong-17 missiles, though some or all of the 11 shown could have been mock-ups.
And when thinking about the five missile containers shown, one must remember that Kim also presented two possible ICBM canisters in its 2017 military parade. The missile canisters shown this time likely did not contain solid-fuel ICBMs: Would Kim allow brand-new, untested missiles to be that close to him, recognizing that real solid fuel missiles are made with the fuel inside. That fuel is safer than liquid fuels, but still if it were accidentally (or purposefully) detonated during the parade it could have eliminated him and much of his leadership.
Of course, Kim appears intent to build these kinds of ICBMs, but despite the appearances in this parade, the United States may still have time to do something to rein-in Kim’s developing strategic nuclear threat.
So Why Isn’t the United States Stopping Kim’s Nuclear Threat Growth?
The United States has tried to use economic sanctions as a means for reining in the growth in the North Korean nuclear weapon threat, but those sanctions have not achieved this objective. The United States does not appear to be posing any other major coercive threat against North Korea to get it to accept even a freeze on its nuclear weapon and ballistic missile program, let alone the nuclearization. Why is that?
The U.S. government has not explained its timidity in this area. It could reflect U.S. concern about risking an escalation spiral with North Korea that could lead to nuclear conflict. This phenomenon is referred to as a nuclear shadow: The ability of an aggressor to continue unacceptable low-level aggression like building nuclear weapons because its opponents fear that confrontation could lead the aggressor to using nuclear weapons. Vladimir Putin used the Russian nuclear shadow to limit initial outside support of Ukraine when he invaded that country in February 2022. The nuclear shadow works best when used against countries focused on the short-term, countries that fail to adequately account for the long-term consequences of taking no action now.
Another U.S. challenge is coming up with appropriate threats that could lead to modified North Korean actions. The key aspect of making such threats is directly affecting the opposing decision maker (Kim). And this is difficult, because it is very hard to predict how Kim will respond to any given U.S. threat.
Of the possible threats that the United States could pose to North Korea, the area which appears to have been least exploited is information threats. Because this is not an area that the United States has chosen as a major policy tool in the past, it may have to apply some significant creativity to make information an effective tool against North Korea. Indeed, some may consider such threats to be largely ineffective, but that does not appear to be Kim’s perspective. Nearly two years ago, Kim decried K-pop as a vicious cancer that was corrupting the culture of his younger generation. The North Korean media argued that unless the North Korean exposure to K-pop was brought under control, K-pop could cause the regime to “crumble like a damp wall.”
The United States could send K-pop, K-dramas and other South Korean culture into North Korea through various media while at the same time sending messages to the North Korean elites whose attention may have been captured by the South Korean content. Transformation of North Korean society may require a break in the elites’ identity politics, historical discourse, and panopticon perspective with which they have lived since the Korean War. So, in the same way that rock music, blue jeans, and McDonalds were – in terms of changing culture, ideas, and identity – stronger than nuclear weapons and missiles against the Soviet Union during the Cold War, K-pop and K-dramas could have a strong transformative potential on North Korean society. Yes, to some it may seem strange to use K-pop and K-dramas and such means to affect Kim’s decisions.
Thinking About the Future
Today, the United States is certainly very busy with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But can the United States and its allies in Northeast Asia afford to wait until North Korea has dozens of ICBMs and hundreds of nuclear weapons? Because that is the direction in which Kim says he is moving.
Yes, the ICBMs that Kim showed in his most recent parade may not yet be true capabilities. But Kim has demonstrated a persistence in developing his threats. In 2022, he also demonstrated a significant degree of success in the development of his short-range ballistic missiles, potentially posing an existential threat to South Korea. It could be foolish to give Kim the time to mature his longer-range threats to seriously jeopardize the United States. As important a threat to the United States as was the recent Chinese intelligence balloon, the development of North Korean nuclear weapon ICBMs could be far more serious and worthy of more U.S. attention.
Dr. Bruce W. Bennett is an adjunct international/defense researcher at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation. He works primarily on research topics such as strategy, force planning, and counterproliferation within the RAND International Security and Defense Policy Center.
Young-jun Kim is a professor at the Korean National Defense University. He is now a visiting professor of the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University. He has been a member of National Security Advisory Board for the Republic of Korea President’s Office and the Central Committee of the Presidential Peaceful Unification Advisory Board.
19fortyfive.com · by Bruce W. Bennett and Young-jun Kim · February 14, 2023
8. North shakes up leadership of army ground forces
Excerpts:
According to a guide to the North Korean military issued by Seoul’s Unification Ministry, the General Staff Department’s land-based forces include nine regular ground corps as well as the Pyongyang Defense Command, the Artillery Command, Mechanized Command and Tank Command.
Although the North once counted eleven regular ground corps, the VI Corps was dismantled in the mid-to-late 1990s after its leaders plotted a coup against the regime’s leadership, according to South Korean and U.S. intelligence officials, while the XI Corps now serves as the core of the regime’s special forces.
In an interview with Yonhap, Hong Min, director of the North Korea Research Division at the Korea Institute of National Unification, said the limited scale of the ground corps leadership reshuffle likely did not indicate a purge by leader Kim Jong-un.
“If the North replaced the commanders of only three ground corps in the last ten months, we should see this as more of a regular change of personnel,” he said.
Wednesday
February 15, 2023
dictionary + A - A
North shakes up leadership of army ground forces
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2023/02/15/national/northKorea/Korea-North-Korea-Korean-Peoples-Army/20230215172854432.html
Kim Song-chol, a colonel general in the North's Korean People's Army, appeared at the head of the I Ground Corps' procession at the Feb. 8 military parade in Pyongyang in footage broadcast by state-controlled Korean Central Television. [YONHAP]
North Korea appears to have reshuffled the leadership of the Korean People's Army's Ground Corps since April last year, according to analysis of the military parade held in Pyongyang last week.
Comparisons between broadcast footage of the military parade held on Feb. 8 to celebrate the 75th anniversary of the founding of the regime’s military, and the one held on April 25 last year, show that the commanders of the Korean People’s Army (KPA) I, V and IX Ground Corps have been replaced.
While the commanders leading the I, V and IX Ground Corps at last year’s parade were Pak Su-il, Choe Kil-ryong and Song Yong-gon, they were replaced by Kim Song-chol, Choe Du-yong and An Yong-hwan at the parade held earlier this month.
Kim and Choe Du-yong are both colonel generals, while An is a lieutenant general.
Although Pak was appointed social security minister in June, his successor in the post of commander of the I Ground Corps was not revealed at the time. Pak was also named the chief of the KPA General Staff Department — Pyongyang’s equivalent of Seoul’s Joint Chiefs of Staff — according to a state media report in January.
Choe Du-yong was one of many military officers promoted en masse on April 14 last year, just before celebrations marking the 110th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il Sung, the regime’s founder and grandfather of current leader Kim Jong-un.
Prior to his promotion, Choe was commander of the KPA’s II Ground Corps.
His official appointments after his promotion remain unclear, but an unnamed South Korean government official told reporters that he was likely named vice chief of the General Staff Department and head of the department’s Operations Bureau after he was seen standing next to Kwon Yong-jin, head of the KPA’s General Political Department.
It remains unclear what assignments have been given to Choe Kil-ryong and Song Yong-gon since they were seemingly replaced as commanders of the V and IX Ground Corps.
According to a guide to the North Korean military issued by Seoul’s Unification Ministry, the General Staff Department’s land-based forces include nine regular ground corps as well as the Pyongyang Defense Command, the Artillery Command, Mechanized Command and Tank Command.
Although the North once counted eleven regular ground corps, the VI Corps was dismantled in the mid-to-late 1990s after its leaders plotted a coup against the regime’s leadership, according to South Korean and U.S. intelligence officials, while the XI Corps now serves as the core of the regime’s special forces.
In an interview with Yonhap, Hong Min, director of the North Korea Research Division at the Korea Institute of National Unification, said the limited scale of the ground corps leadership reshuffle likely did not indicate a purge by leader Kim Jong-un.
“If the North replaced the commanders of only three ground corps in the last ten months, we should see this as more of a regular change of personnel,” he said.
BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]
9. Fact Check: Did North Korea display most nuclear weapons ever at parade?
Many questions to answer.
Excerpts;
Speaking to Newsweek, however, Panda said: "It'd be more accurate to say largest display of intercontinental-range ballistic missiles (ICBM)."
Vann H. Van Diepen, a Korea expert who spent over three decades inside the U.S. government prior to now working as a consultant for North Korea analysts 38 North, told Newsweek that while likely the largest number of ICBMs on display, more nuclear firepower had been paraded before.
"One aspect of the question concerns what a 'nuclear missile' is," Van Diepen said.
"If you count both nuclear-only and dual-capable systems as 'nuclear missiles,' then the recent parade was not the largest display.
"The April 2022 parade featured fewer ICBMs, but more short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM)—and more types of SRBMs—and Ground Launched Cruise Missile, (GLCM), and added submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBM). By my rough count, there were 77 'nuclear missiles' by this typology on February 9, 2023, and 109 in April 2022.
"If you count only ICBMs, IRBMs, and SLBMs (other than the KN-23), it looks like 15 in 2023 and about 11 in 2022. And counting only ICBMs would make 2023 the clear winner."
While the sheer display of weapons may be a cause for concern, Van Diepen said that some analysts had questioned whether any of the nuclear warheads, necessary to create explosive missile payloads, were small enough to fit on the missiles they had paraded.
"And, of course, it is unclear how many real 'missiles' were paraded, as opposed to mock-ups, training missiles, and/or possibly empty ICBM-sized canisters and GLCM/KN-25 launch tubes," Van Diepen said.
Fact Check: Did North Korea display most nuclear weapons ever at parade?
Newsweek · by Tom Norton · February 14, 2023
North Korea's nuclear weapon capability has long been a source of pride for the country, with estimates by analysts suggesting that it has 40 to 50 warheads in its arsenal.
Much like its neighbor to the north, the country uses grand military parades to show off its weaponry to the world, with lines of tanks, missiles, and submarine technology greeted with domestic applause.
At one such event last week, marking the 75th anniversary of North Korea's military, it sent out what some claimed was the largest number of nuclear-capable missiles to line the streets of Pyongyang.
People in Seoul, South Korea, watch a television show North Korea's 75th anniversary of the founding of the armed forces day military parade. North Korea held a military parade in Pyongyang to mark the 75th founding anniversary of its armed forces, an informed source said, in what was seen as a highly choreographed event to flaunt its military might and foster national unity. Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images
The Claim
A tweet posted by Daily Loud, on February 9, 2023, which has been viewed more than nine million times, includes photos of nuclear weapons on parade in North Korea.
The tweet states: "North Korea shows off largest-ever number of nuclear missiles at parade."
The Facts
The claim that last week's parade was North Korea's largest display of nuclear weapons was attributed by some news outlets to the country's state media.
A video posted by Global News claimed that "state-run news agency KRT" had said it was the largest-ever display of nuclear missiles in a military parade. Newsweek was unable to find the original claim made by KRT.
While state media claims should be treated with a healthy amount of skepticism, analysis by independent experts corroborated that it was the largest display of nuclear weaponry.
Ankit Panda, Stanton senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote on Twitter that there were up to a dozen devices on display.
Panda tweeted: "Need to see video, but it looks like 10-12 Hwasong-17 ICBMs made an appearance. This is cumulatively more ICBM launchers than we've ever seen before at a North Korean parade."
Speaking to Newsweek, however, Panda said: "It'd be more accurate to say largest display of intercontinental-range ballistic missiles (ICBM)."
Vann H. Van Diepen, a Korea expert who spent over three decades inside the U.S. government prior to now working as a consultant for North Korea analysts 38 North, told Newsweek that while likely the largest number of ICBMs on display, more nuclear firepower had been paraded before.
"One aspect of the question concerns what a 'nuclear missile' is," Van Diepen said.
"If you count both nuclear-only and dual-capable systems as 'nuclear missiles,' then the recent parade was not the largest display.
"The April 2022 parade featured fewer ICBMs, but more short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM)—and more types of SRBMs—and Ground Launched Cruise Missile, (GLCM), and added submarine launched ballistic missiles (SLBM). By my rough count, there were 77 'nuclear missiles' by this typology on February 9, 2023, and 109 in April 2022.
"If you count only ICBMs, IRBMs, and SLBMs (other than the KN-23), it looks like 15 in 2023 and about 11 in 2022. And counting only ICBMs would make 2023 the clear winner."
While the sheer display of weapons may be a cause for concern, Van Diepen said that some analysts had questioned whether any of the nuclear warheads, necessary to create explosive missile payloads, were small enough to fit on the missiles they had paraded.
"And, of course, it is unclear how many real 'missiles' were paraded, as opposed to mock-ups, training missiles, and/or possibly empty ICBM-sized canisters and GLCM/KN-25 launch tubes," Van Diepen said.
So, while it may be that North Korea showed off the largest number of one category of nuclear weapons, it does not appear that its 75th military anniversary parade was the biggest display of its overall nuclear arsenal.
North Korea's nuclear weapon development program was lauded on Russian state TV. Presenter Sergey Mardan praised North Korea for threatening to use nuclear weapons against the United States during a February 3 broadcast.
"For them, independence is an absolute value for which they are prepared to do anything, including turning the whole world into dust," Mardan said.
"That's to say, when King Jong-un said back when Trump was still president that if you move your aircraft carriers toward the coast of North Korea, we'll...whack you with a nuclear bomb."
The Ruling
Needs Context.
While North Korean state media reported that its recent Pyongyang parade included the largest number of nuclear weapons on show, experts have said it was the largest parade of intercontinental ballistic missiles alone.
Analysis provided to Newsweek suggests that North Korea has paraded a larger overall number of nuclear weapons before, with fewer ICBMs and more shorter-range weapons.
FACT CHECK BY Newsweek's Fact Check team
Newsweek · by Tom Norton · February 14, 2023
10. N. Korea holds lectures for party cadres to spark innovation in ideological education
This is a fundamental problem with the regime. You cannot base everything on ideology - improving ideological indoctrination will not solve the economic, agriculture, national disaster, COVID problems. "You cannot eat ideology."
The number one reason for this ideological training is for control of the people to prevent resistance and collective action.
N. Korea holds lectures for party cadres to spark innovation in ideological education
“If the state really cares about the people, it should allow markets to stay open at least a little longer rather than intensifying ideological education,” a source told Daily NK
By Lee Chae Un - 2023.02.14 6:00pm
dailynk.com
An image of now deceased President Kim Il Sung created by thousands of participants in the Arirang Mass Games. (David Stanley, Flickr, Creative Commons)
Workers’ Party of Korea officials in South Hamgyong Province recently attended lectures calling for intensified ideological indoctrination of provincial residents, Daily NK has learned.
A source in South Hamgyong Province told Daily NK on Monday that the province’s party committee carried out lectures for cadres in party propaganda and agitation departments at the provincial, city and county level in mid-January.
The lectures were entitled “Party Cadres Must Become High-output Loudspeakers.”
“Following the lectures for the cadres, lectures were carried out for party officials at the city and county level early this month, and even in Hamhung, lectures were held for the party secretaries of individual agencies and enterprises and cell secretaries,” he said.
Last year, North Korea’s leadership stressed during lectures for party cadres that they must make efforts to implement ideological indoctrination that accurately conveys party ideology to the people.
This year’s lectures had the same message, with the authorities calling for officials to make all-out efforts in propaganda and agitation activities to spark innovation in ideological education amid the difficult period the country is experiencing.
However, officials who took part in the lectures have been less than enthusiastic about their message.
According to Daily NK’s source, a party cell secretary at a workplace in Hamhung asked, “How can we tell people who are hungry and cold to simply trust and follow the Workers’ Party?”
The cell secretary said he was too embarrassed to speak with ordinary people anymore given that the Workers’ Party is simply telling him to indoctrinate people without resolving the country’s fundamental problems.
In fact, Daily NK’s source said there were lots of people with faces swollen from hunger in not only rural counties and villages, but also cities.
“Even party officials feel troubled that they must ideologically indoctrinate such people to live according to the ideology and will of the Workers’ Party,” he said. “You can’t soothe public discontent with propaganda and agitation work these days.”
In fact, the source said local residents who heard about the message of the lectures complained, “Are they saying we can’t survive because our ideology is wanting?”
The source said the state is using all means at its disposal to correct worsening public sentiment, but “it’s only leading to blowback.”
“If the state really cares about the people, it should allow markets to stay open at least a little longer rather than intensifying ideological education,” he said.
Translated by David Black. Edited by Robert Lauler.
Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.
Read in Korean
dailynk.com
11. No queen in waiting likely to rule North Korea’s ‘Kimdom’
Maybe we will see a game of thrones in north Korea. Or at least some palace intrigue.
Excerpts:
Kim Yo-jong rose to prominence as an envoy to Seoul before the 2018 Winter Olympics in South Korea. Those diplomatic maneuvers paved the way for the 2018 Singapore summit between Mr. Kim and President Trump.
The diplomacy with Washington fizzled after a 2019 summit in Vietnam, and Kim Yo-jong transitioned to a role as the regime’s “bad cop,” unleashing frequent, well-covered tirades against Seoul and Washington in state media.
Her prominence, some say, points to Mr. Kim’s paranoia.
“Yo-jong is powerful as Kim cannot trust members of the existing establishment,” Mr. Go said, “so he has to rely on blood relatives.”
Yet blood does not overcome gender when it comes to succession. “Yo-jong can be empowered as she has little chance of succeeding him,” Mr. Go said. “She is limited in her potential, as a woman.”
Alternatively, Ju-ae’s soaring profile may be designed to eclipse her aunt’s. In the past three months, Kim Yo-jong’s visibility has plunged.
“If Yo-jong keeps doing as she has been doing, many elites will follow her, so Kim Jong-un is afraid of that,” Mr. Choi said. “This is a message to power elites: ‘Look: I have children, and Yo-jong is helping me, but don’t follow her too much.’”
No queen in waiting likely to rule North Korea’s ‘Kimdom’
Despite high-profile daughter, sister, bet on a male successor in Pyongyang
washingtontimes.com · by Andrew Salmon
SEOUL — Kim Ju-ae, the preteen daughter of all-powerful North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, is being immortalized on a set of stamps issued by the secretive state. The stamps, made public Tuesday, depict Ju-ae surrounded by military brass, with her father by her side and an intercontinental ballistic missile as a backdrop.
Couple that with unconfirmed reports last week that all other North Korean women called Ju-ae have been ordered to change their names, and rumors are flying that Ju-ae, believed to be 9 or 10, is being groomed to succeed her father, grandfather and great-grandfather as the head of the hermetic Kim dynasty.
Despite media buzz surrounding Ju-ae and her aunt — Mr. Kim’s prominent and powerful sister, Kim Yo-jong — veteran North Korea watchers caution that the chance of any woman ascending to the pinnacle of power in Pyongyang is slim.
“North Korea is a very male-dominated society,” said Choi Jin-wook, who heads the Seoul-based Center for Strategic and Cultural Studies. “They say men and women are equal, and they have been emphasizing equality since they needed labor in the 1950s, but in reality, among high-rank officials, women are very, very rare.”
“If we look at the past leadership of North Korea, there were some smart ladies working with it — but few,” said Joanne Kim, president of the Korea Heritage Education Institute. “It is male dominant, and they depend on violence and physical and military power.”
Beyond the cultural biases, it is widely believed within South Korea’s community of Pyongyangologists that Mr. Kim has a secret son. The belief is that the son — even his name is unknown, though he is thought to be a few years older than Ju-ae — is actually the likely heir to the Kim throne while being kept out of sight and danger.
Ju-ae made her public debut holding her father’s hand during a November missile test and is routinely described in the state-controlled media as Mr. Kim’s “beloved” and “respected” daughter. Her real role may be to serve as cover, deflecting attention from her brother and duping the North’s many adversaries and the global media.
No queen for the Kimdom
Korean society, both traditional and modern, has not elevated many women to positions of real power.
“The last ruling Korean queen dates back to the Silla Dynasty,” said the Korea Heritage Education Institute’s Ms. Kim.
Silla was a kingdom that fell in the 10th century, and in the succeeding dynasties that ruled the peninsula up to the 20th century, “queens were consorts — wives of kings,” Ms. Kim said. As such, they were able to exercise power only “behind the screens.”
Even in today’s democratic, cosmopolitan South Korea, the world’s 10th-largest economy, gender equality is problematic. It was ranked 99th among 146 nations in the World Economic Forum’s 2022 Gender Gap Index. Since the end of World War II, South Korea has had just one female president, Park Geun-hye. Her administration was cut short when she was impeached and removed from office four years after her election in 2013.
Matters look even grimmer in the post-communist, ultra-militarized, neo-monarchy north of the DMZ.
Bloody feuds erupted in ancient Korean palaces, and paranoia and risk stalked Pyongyang’s elite. Mr. Kim had his powerful uncle, Jang Song-thaek, executed for disloyalty in 2013 and his China-based half brother, Kim Jong-nam, assassinated in Malaysia in 2017 for reasons unknown.
Granting a successor, even a daughter, such a high profile at a young age would be high risk. “Why would Kim be putting a target on his daughter’s back?” asked a retired South Korean military source.
Hence the likelihood of a different successor: Kim’s rumored son.
“As a boy is a much more serious candidate than Ju-ae, Kim Jong-un does not want to show him,” Mr. Choi said.
Mr. Kim gained an international perspective via schooling in Switzerland. Some Pyongyang watchers believe that his son, too, may be overseas for reasons of education and discretion.
“There is a lot of speculation about why he is in the shadows, and one is that he is not in North Korea but is under diplomatic cover, perhaps in Sweden or Switzerland or in China, Hong Kong or even Moscow,” said Go Myong-hyun, a North Korea expert at Seoul’s Asan Institute for Policy Studies. “Protection may be one reason. … I think Ju-ae’s prominence is more the Kim regime is playing international media.”
With solid sourcing of the opaque North Korean regime hard to come by, yet another rumor is that the son might not be the child of Ri Sol-ju, Mr. Kim’s wife, Mr. Go said. If the rumor is true, then the exposure of infidelity would clash with Mr. Kim’s carefully scrubbed public image.
‘Normalizing’ North Korea
Though state-sponsored historical accounts give some space to the mother of dynasty founder Kim Il-sung, and subsequently on the sister of his son Kim Jong-il, neither was depicted at the center of famous events. The high public profiles of three women in Kim Jong-un’s inner circle — his wife, sister and daughter — is a marked departure from past practice.
Driving Mr. Kim may be his overseas experience and a desire to “normalize” his regime.
His father, Kim Jong-il, ruled in virtual secrecy, undercutting the power of official state bodies. Kim Jong-il had multiple paramours and fathered several children out of wedlock.
Kim Jong-un has returned a range of duties and powers to party bodies. He has granted his wife, Ms. Ri, a first-lady-type profile and has brought her on official visits to sites such as children’s hospitals.
“I think he has normalized his managerial style to the North Korean people,” Mr. Go said. “Kim Jong-il had many wives and girlfriends, so Kim Jong-un wanted to give the people a sense of stability by having an ‘official’ wife.”
Although Ms. Ri’s profile is high, she has been seen behind her daughter in recent appearances. Meanwhile, global media have been more entranced by Mr. Kim’s unusually outspoken younger sister.
Kim Yo-jong rose to prominence as an envoy to Seoul before the 2018 Winter Olympics in South Korea. Those diplomatic maneuvers paved the way for the 2018 Singapore summit between Mr. Kim and President Trump.
The diplomacy with Washington fizzled after a 2019 summit in Vietnam, and Kim Yo-jong transitioned to a role as the regime’s “bad cop,” unleashing frequent, well-covered tirades against Seoul and Washington in state media.
Her prominence, some say, points to Mr. Kim’s paranoia.
“Yo-jong is powerful as Kim cannot trust members of the existing establishment,” Mr. Go said, “so he has to rely on blood relatives.”
Yet blood does not overcome gender when it comes to succession. “Yo-jong can be empowered as she has little chance of succeeding him,” Mr. Go said. “She is limited in her potential, as a woman.”
Alternatively, Ju-ae’s soaring profile may be designed to eclipse her aunt’s. In the past three months, Kim Yo-jong’s visibility has plunged.
“If Yo-jong keeps doing as she has been doing, many elites will follow her, so Kim Jong-un is afraid of that,” Mr. Choi said. “This is a message to power elites: ‘Look: I have children, and Yo-jong is helping me, but don’t follow her too much.’”
• Andrew Salmon can be reached at asalmon@washingtontimes.com.
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12. Widespread North Korean Famine Under Wraps Amid Dictatorial Displays
Again, we need to watch for the indicators of instability.
Widespread North Korean Famine Under Wraps Amid Dictatorial Displays
Pyongyang’s focus on Kim Jong-un’s 10-year-old daughter is seen as a ploy to make the strongman ‘look like he is just a good old guy, a great, loving, and very human dad.’
https://www.nysun.com/article/widespread-north-korean-famine-under-wraps-amid-dictatorial-displays
A TV screen at the Seoul Railway Station shows an image of the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, with his daughter February 9, 2023. AP/Lee Jin-man
DONALD KIRK
Friday, February 10, 2023
12:27:06 pm
All eyes were on a 10-year-old girl gazing at fearsome missiles on parade at Pyongyang to mark the 75th anniversary of the founding of North Korea’s armed forces. Not mentioned was that this week’s parade took place as North Koreans are enduring a time of excruciating hunger that may match the famine of the 1990s that killed up to 2 million people.
After reviewing the extravaganza featuring the North’s latest Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missiles, the country’s dictator, Kim Jong-un, with 10-year-old daughter Ju-ae at his side, heaped praise upon the troops for “defending the eternal prosperity of the country and the wellbeing of the people.” Pyongyang’s Korean Central News Agency said “shouts of ‘Kim Jong Un’ and 'devoted defense’ rocked the sky as thunder of loyalty.”
The parade, the 13th since Mr. Kim took over after his father’s death in 2011, did nothing to advance the well-being of the vast majority of North Koreans suffering through another winter of discontent and suffering. “Food Insecurity in North Korea Is at Its Worst Since the 1990s Famine,” is the headline of a report from a Washington think tank that tracks North Korea, 38 North.
“Food availability has likely fallen below the bare minimum with regard to human needs,” the report, by Lucas Rengifo-Keller of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said.
As far as the North Korean media was concerned, however, the story was the missiles that were being trundled by at night along with goose-stepping troops. Hungry people who might not appreciate the misguided emphasis on nukes and the missiles capable of reaching all of the North’s foes, from the United States to Japan and South Korea, would have to watch the whole show on state TV.
Mr. Kim’s daughter, sometimes smiling, sometimes looking serious, often leaning upon his arm, provided a distraction from reality. How better to impress upon his people the glories of weapons guaranteed to insure the North’s superiority over enemies near and far?
The sight of the chubby, healthy-looking royal daughter beside her father may have put a winsome face on a cruel, dictatorial regime while hinting at the future. The health of Mr. Kim, at 39, has long been an issue.
“Kim Ju Ae’s profile is indeed interesting,” Ankit Panda of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace said. “She was featured alone in a photograph on the fourth page of [the party newspaper] Rodong Sinmun — without her father or mother,” he noted. “It’s uncertain whether or not she is the successor, but she appears to certainly be on the way to a greater public profile and role.”
Yet has Mr. Kim really settled on Ju-ae as the one most likely to maintain the bloodline? “I think this is all about appearances,” an author of numerous books and studies about North Korean leadership, Bruce Bechtol, said. “It will be difficult to make a female the next leader in a Confucian Socialist society.”
Bruce Bennett of the RAND Corporation sees the daughter’s appearance as primarily for domestic image-making.
Mr. Kim “is such a ruthless dictator that I’m sure he has focused attention on his daughter for purposes inside North Korea, to make him look like he is just a good old guy, a great, loving, and very human dad,” he said. “I have to wonder how well that is working, as he makes very senior and experienced military and other leaders pay homage to his young, inexperienced daughter.”
The World Food Program estimates at least 40 percent of the country is undernourished even as the North proudly rejects most forms of foreign aid and still largely closes its borders with China, its only real ally, while battling Covid-19, the pandemic that Mr. Kim claims to have conquered.
“North Korea’s chronic food insecurity is the product of decades of economic mismanagement and internal and external policies,” the 38 North report said.
The report directly blamed “the Kim regime” for having “insisted on maintaining a failed economic model” while “committed to its nuclear program.” Resolving food insecurity would require “strengthening property rights, opening and revitalizing the industrial and service sectors of the economy, and embracing an export-oriented model” — steps the regime has “proved itself unwilling to pursue.
DONALD KIRK
Mr. Kirk, based in Seoul and Washington, has been covering Asia for decades for newspapers and magazines and is the author of books on Korea, the Vietnam War and the Philippines.
13. A new TikTok account purporting to show 'life in North Korea' has amassed over 60,000 followers in 3 days
The Propaganda and Agitation Department is trying to adapt to the modern era. It sees the opportunities.
A new TikTok account purporting to show 'life in North Korea' has amassed over 60,000 followers in 3 days | Business Insider
businessinsider.co.za · by Kieran Press-Reynolds
The page has already accrued millions of views. (Screenshot/TikTok - northkoreanlife)
- A new TikTok account that appears to highlight everyday life in North Korea has gone viral.
- While not much is known about the poster, it's already racking millions of views from curious and concerned outsiders.
- The channel comes amid a rise of North Korean YouTube channels that are believed to be state-sanctioned.
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For more stories, go to www.BusinessInsider.co.za.
A new TikTok channel that appears to promote and highlight life in North Korea has already amassed over 60,000 subscribers in a matter of a few days.
Because the country is known for its strict censorship and tightly controlled internet access, users from the rest of the world aren't sure what to make of @Northkoreanlife.
The channel began posting content on Friday. The first clip was a video of people walking in a busy train station in the country's capital Pyongyang.
Since then, the channel has uploaded 14 more videos, including one of a large mass of students performing choreography, and a clip of the TikToker's "daily morning walk," which has almost 10 million views.
While it's unclear if these videos were taken in North Korea — or if the account holder is a private citizen — the account is dressed like promotional tourism.
A 15-second video of the creator walking in a city at night has the description "Pyongyang has the best nightlife." In another description of a clip of people watching a movie playing on a billboard, the creator wrote: "North Korea is in the future!"
Insider has reached out to the account holder.
@northkoreanlife Pyongyang has the best nightlife ?? #fyp#foryou#foryoupage#korea? Summer - Calvin Harris
In one video, the creator seemed to try to dispel the myth that North Korea has no cars by showing a handful of vehicles driving around. In another, the creator panned across a gorgeous landscape of mountains and wrote, "The North Korea western media doesn't show you."
By Monday, the account had already amassed over 61,000 followers, and it's quickly growing by the hour.
The comment sections are full of shock, and people are unsure what to make of the account — and if someone can freely film in the country. Besides top government authorities, North Korean citizens do not have access to the global internet. They can only use a government-sanctioned intranet called Kwangmyong, which has a number of curated sites. Computers are also mostly forbidden.
Some viewers are speculating that the TikTok account is actually a government-run account, especially as more and more content purporting to show "everyday" North Korean life are cropping up across social media over the last year.
Last week, experts warned about propaganda efforts in several North Korean YouTube channels that were created in 2022. YouTuber Song A, who has said in videos that she's completed fifth grade, has accumulated around 21,000 YouTube subscribers in nine months showing what her average life looks like in North Korea's capital.
Researchers told CNN that creators like Song A could be part of a new propaganda effort to reshape the outside perception of the country to be more relatable. A YouTuber who calls herself "Olivia Natasha," for instance, was found to be run by Sogwang Media Corporation, a North Korean media company with reported ties to the government.
businessinsider.co.za · by Kieran Press-Reynolds
14. S. Korea to send medical team, more aid materials to Turkey: ministry.
(LEAD) S. Korea to send medical team, more aid materials to Turkey: ministry. | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 장동우 · February 15, 2023
(ATTN: CHANGES headline, lead; UPDATES throughout with details)
SEOUL, Feb. 15 (Yonhap) -- South Korea said Wednesday it plans to send a new relief team, including 10 medical workers, to Turkey this week as well as 55 tons of aid materials.
The decision to send the 21-member squad was made at an interagency meeting on ways to help the country struggling to deal with the aftermath of the devastating 7.8 magnitude quake, according to the foreign ministry.
It is scheduled to depart for the city of Adana on Thursday night. Its members include those from the National Medical Center and the Korea Foundation for International Healthcare.
The government plans to mobilize two military transport aircraft and a commercial flight for the dispatch of the team and delivery of such additional relief materials as tents and blankets.
Last week, South Korea sent 118 members of the Korea Disaster Relief Team, mostly for search and rescue operations, to the city of Antakya, having offered US$5 million in emergency humanitarian assistance. Having saved eight survivors, they are faced with poor working conditions and deteriorating security situations in the area.
The existing team is to move to Adana before heading back home this week.
On Monday, President Yoon Suk Yeol ordered the government to mobilize all available resources for the country's emergency relief and reconstruction efforts.
Members of a South Korean disaster relief team rescue a toddler in Antakya, the Turkish province of Hatay, on Feb. 9, 2023, after a deadly 7.8 magnitude earthquake hit Turkey and Syria on Feb. 6. (Yonhap)
odissy@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 장동우 · February 15, 2023
15. S. Korean, Mongolian PMs hold talks on rare earths, infrastructure
S. Korean, Mongolian PMs hold talks on rare earths, infrastructure | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 김덕현 · February 15, 2023
By Kim Deok-hyun
SEOUL, Feb. 15 (Yonhap) -- South Korean Prime Minister Han Duck-soo and Mongolian Prime Minister Luvsannamsrai Oyun-Erdene held talks on Wednesday and agreed to boost cooperation in rare earth minerals, infrastructure development and climate change responses.
Luvsannamsrai, who is on a five-day official visit to South Korea, also threw Mongolia's official support behind Seoul's bid to bring the 2030 World Expo to the southeastern port city of Busan, Han's office said in a statement.
During the talks, Han told Luvsannamsrai that South Korea and Mongolia are "strategic partners who share universal values and have mutually complementary advantages in many areas."
"We expect to actively discover and promote cooperative measures in areas such as climate change response and infrastructure development," Han said.
South Korean Prime Minister Han Duck-soo (R) and his Mongolian counterpart, Luvsannamsrai Oyun-Erdene, pose for a photo before talks at the government complex in Seoul on Feb. 15, 2023. (Yonhap)
Luvsannamsrai told Han that "Mongolian people highly appreciate that Korean people contribute greatly to all changes in Mongolian society."
"Based on the success of political relations over the past 30 years, we hope that people-to-people exchanges, investor exchanges, and business cooperation can develop further over the next 30 years," Luvsannamsrai said.
Under a preliminary agreement signed after the talks, South Korea and Mongolia will hold an annual meeting on rare earth minerals and other rare metals.
The two nations will also jointly explore and develop rare metals in Mongolia, according to the statement.
In addition, South Korea and Mongolia agreed to launch negotiations to sign an economic partnership deal that would expand investment and trade between the two nations, it said.
While throwing support behind South Korea's bid for the World Expo, Luvsannamsrai said, "We are confident of the successful hosting of the Busan World Expo and hope that Korea's status in the international community will be enhanced through the fair," according to the statement.
kdh@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 김덕현 · February 15, 2023
16.Healthcare in the Crosshairs of North Korean Cyber Operations
How should we consider cyber attacks that result in the death of hospital patients? What should be our response?
Healthcare in the Crosshairs of North Korean Cyber Operations
CISA, FBI, and South Korean intelligence agencies warn that the North Korean government is sponsoring ransomware attacks to fund its cyber-espionage activities.
Jai Vijayan
Contributing Writer, Dark Reading
darkreading.com · February 13, 2023
Organizations in the US healthcare and public health sector are among the top targets for state-sponsored North Korean cyber-threat actors seeking to fund espionage activities via ransomware and other attacks.
That's the assessment of the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), the FBI, the US Department of Health and Human Services, and South Korean intelligence agencies. In a joint advisory Feb. 9, the group described the North Korean government as using revenues — in the form of cryptocurrency — from these ransomware attacks to fund other cyber operations that include spying on US and South Korean defense sector and defense industrial base organizations.
State-Sponsored Ransomware Attacks With a Mission
"The authoring agencies assess that an unspecified amount of revenue from these cryptocurrency operations supports DPRK national-level priorities and objectives," the advisory said.
The alert also cautioned ransomware victims in healthcare and critical infrastructure sectors against paying ransoms. "Doing so does not guarantee files and records will be recovered and may pose sanctions risks," it said.
There is little in the advisory to indicate whether it was prompted by new threat intelligence or word about imminent attacks. But it comes amid a continuing increase in ransomware attacks against healthcare entities overall. A report by the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) earlier this year identified a doubling in the number of ransomware attacks against healthcare entities between 2016 and 2021. Of the total 374 ransomware attacks on US healthcare organizations during that period, some 44% disrupted heathcare delivery.
The most common disruptions included systems downtime, cancellations of scheduled care, and ambulance diversions. JAMA's study found an increase especially in ransomware attacks against large healthcare organizations with multiple facilities between 2016 and 2021.
A June 2022 report from Sophos showed 66% of healthcare organizations experienced at least one ransomware attack in 2021. Sixty-one percent of those attacks ended with the attackers' encrypting data and demanding a ransom for the decryption key.
"Healthcare saw the highest increase in volume of cyberattacks (69%) as well as the complexity of cyberattacks (67%) compared to the cross-sector average of 57% and 59% respectively," Sophos said.
New Intel, New Tactics
CISA's latest cybersecurity advisory this week updates its earlier guidance on state-sponsored ransomware attacks from North Korea directed against the US healthcare and public health sector. It highlighted multiple tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTPs) that North Korean cyber actors are currently employing when executing ransomware attacks against healthcare targets. Most of the TTPs are typical of those observed with ransomware attacks and include tactics like lateral movement and asset discovery.
The advisory also highlighted several ransomware tools — and associated indicators of compromise (IoCs) — that North Korean actors have been using in attacks on healthcare organizations. Among them were privately developed variants such as Maui and H0lyGh0st and publicly available encryption tools such as BitLocker, Deadbolt, Jogsaw, and Hidden Tear.
"In some cases, DPRK actors have portrayed themselves as other ransomware groups, such as the REvil ransomware group," in an attempt to evade attribution, the advisory said.
In addition to obfuscating their involvement by operating with other affiliates and foreign third parties, North Korean actors frequently use fake domains, personas, and accounts to execute their campaigns, CISA and the others said. "DPRK cyber actors will also use virtual private networks (VPNs) and virtual private servers (VPSs) or third-country IP addresses to appear to be from innocuous locations instead of from DPRK."
The advisory highlighted some of newer software vulnerabilities that state-backed groups in North Korea have been exploiting in their ransomware attacks. Among them were the Log4Shell vulnerability in the Apache Log4j framework (CVE-2021-44228) and multiple vulnerabilities in SonicWall appliances.
CISA's recommended mitigations against the North Korean threat included stronger authentication and access control, implementing the principle of least privilege, employing encryption and data masking to protect data at rest, and securing protected health information during collection, storage, and processing.
The advisory also urged healthcare entities to maintain isolated backups, develop an incident response plan, update operating systems and applications, and monitor remote desktop protocol (RDP) and other remote access mechanisms.
darkreading.com · February 13, 2023
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Senior Advisor, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
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