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Quotes of the Day:
"I wish to preach, not the doctrine of ignoble ease, but the doctrine of the strenuous life, the life of toil and effort, of labor and strife; to preach that highest form of success which comes, not to the man who desires mere easy peace, but to the man who does not shrink from danger, from hardship, or from bitter toil, and who out of these wins the splendid ultimate triumph."
– Theodore Roosevelt
"It is easi er to love humanity than to love your neighbor."
– Eric Hoffer
"Anyway, no drug, not even alcohol, causes the fundamental ills of society. If we're looking for the source of our troubles, we shouldn't test people for drugs, we should test them for stupidity, ignorance, greed and love of power."
– P.J. O'Rourke
1. South Korea Must Counter Chinese Influence Operations—and the U.S. Should Provide Support
2. U.S. restates its goal of 'full' Korean Peninsula denuclearization
3. Seoul's Ties With Havana Seen as Setback for Pyongyang
4. Seoul official discusses N. Korean human rights with US envoy
5. FM Cho holds 1st in-person talks with Japanese counterpart at G20
6. S. Korea to push to designate July 14 as day for N. Korean defectors
7. Russia claims 'sanctions war' against Moscow after criticism over Putin's gift to N.K. leader
8. N Korea erases term ‘unification’ from Pyongyang metro station name
9. Russia apparently violating UNSC resolutions by giving N.K. leader luxury car: State Dept.
10. ＜Inside N. Korea＞ Kim Jong-il birthday festivities smaller than in the past…special rations reduced due to lack of funds…focus more on labor mobilizations, with some events canceled
11. S. Korean, Japanese FMs agree to cooperate to address N. Korean issues: Tokyo gov't
12. Cautious hopes reemerge for Japan's role over N. Korean nuclear conundrum
13. South Korea jails former hero pastor for sexually abusing North Korean teenage defectors
14. U.S. says it would welcome dialogue between North, Japan
15. Harrowing Prospect of a Second Korean War: $40 Trillion in Damage and Millions Dead
1. South Korea Must Counter Chinese Influence Operations—and the U.S. Should Provide Support
This is a must read report from one of our best Korea watchers, Bruce Klingner. I strongly recommend that all my Korean friends and both ROK and US government officials, read, study, and act on the recommendations in this report.
Download the 17 page report at this link: https://www.heritage.org/sites/default/files/2024-02/BG3815.pdf
South Korea Must Counter Chinese Influence Operations—and the U.S. Should Provide Support
February 21, 2024 29 min read Download Report
SUMMARY
China manipulates foreign public policy debates and influences elections by spreading disinformation and intensifying political differences in target countries. Chinese overseas influence operations stoke domestic political and social tensions, undermine support for the national government, sow distrust of the electoral system, and weaken support for alliances and partnerships with the United States. Washington should closely coordinate with Seoul to combat China’s covert efforts to sow discord in the alliance through a multi-faceted strategy to reduce Beijing’s ability to alter South Korean public opinion, government policies, and election results. Seoul must weigh any additional legislation against the potential for excessive government constraints on civil liberties—Seoul must be careful to not intervene too much in traditional and social media lest it jeopardize the institutions it seeks to protect.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Chinese covert influence and disinformation operations are a threat to South Korean liberal democracy and U.S. strategic interests in the Indo–Pacific.
Beijing seeks to erode public confidence in democratic institutions, divide America’s allies, and undermine resistance to China’s aggressive expansionist policies.
Targeting Chinese disinformation campaigns in South Korea can be the foundation of a larger effort to counteract this problem globally.
2. U.S. restates its goal of 'full' Korean Peninsula denuclearization
Of course, our stated policy cannot be otherwise.
But we must keep in mind the basic truth. First is that Kim's pursuit of nuclear weapons has led to his failed promise to his elite, the military, and the Korean people in the north. He promised that when he fully developed his nuclear capability it would bring peace and prosperity to the Korean people in the north. But he is unable to achieve that because he does not know how to make that happen. The ultimate paradox is that the only way he could bring peace and prosperity to the north is by giving up his nuclear weapons and opening up to economic reforms and outside engagement. But to do so would mean the end of the regime while the people might survive and improve their lives. This shows he has no sincere concern for the lives and well being of the Korean people in the north.
Although denuclearization of the north remains a worthy goal, it must be viewed as aspirational as long as the Kim family regime remains in power. The conventional wisdom has always been that denuclearization must come first and then unification will follow and that there should be no discussion of human rights out of fear that it would prevent Kim Jong Un from making a denuclearization agreement. Today even a blind man can read the tea leaves and know that Kim Jong Un will not denuclearize despite the fact that his policies have been an abject failure. His political warfare and blackmail diplomacy strategies completely failed in 2022 and 2023 because Presidents Yoon and Biden, like their predecessors, refused to make the political and economic concessions he demanded just to come to the negotiating table: namely to remove sanctions. It is time for the U.S and the ROK/U.S. alliance to execute a political warfare strategy that flips the conventional wisdom and seeks unification first and then denuclearization. Everyone must come to the understanding that the only way to end the nuclear program and the human rights abuses is through unification of the Korean peninsula. The ROK and U.S. must continue to maintain the highest state of military readiness to deter war and then adopt a human rights upfront approach, a comprehensive and sophisticated information and influence activities campaign, and focus all efforts on the pursuit of a free and unified Korea- ultimately a United Republic of Korea (UROK).
U.S. restates its goal of 'full' Korean Peninsula denuclearization | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · February 21, 2024
By Song Sang-ho
WASHINGTON, Feb. 20 (Yonhap) -- The State Department on Tuesday reiterated the United States' goal to achieve the "full" denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, after North Korea signaled openness to improving ties with Japan as long as Tokyo does not take issue with its "right to self-defense."
Last week, Kim Yo-jong, the sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, said that Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida might be able to visit Pyongyang if Tokyo "drops its bad habit" of taking issue with its right to self-defense and the issue of Japanese abducted decades ago.
Kim's mention of the right to self-defense was construed as the North's refusal to abandon its nuclear weapons program.
"I think that's a pretty big if. I think I will wait to see how the government of Japan responds to that question before I weigh in any further," Matthew Miller, the department's spokesperson, told a press briefing.
He was responding to a question over what impact the South Korea-U.S. alliance will bear if Japan embraces the North's preconditions for Kishida's visit to Pyongyang and holds talks with the recalcitrant regime.
Matthew Miller, the State Department spokesperson, speaks during a press briefing at the department in Washington, in this Oct. 30, 2023, file photo. (Yonhap)
"I am aware of the North Korean offer. I have not seen the government of Japan respond, but it will continue to be our policy to achieve the full denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula," he said.
In a separate briefing, Pentagon's deputy spokesperson Sabrina Singh said that the United States supports diplomatic outreach to North Korea.
"We have also said from here that we would seek diplomatic outreach should they want to engage," she said. "We want to see regional stability in the region. If those conversations lead to that, we certainly welcome that."
The North's show of interest in high-level diplomacy with Japan has raised questions over whether its move would cause any fissure in ongoing efforts to strengthen trilateral security cooperation among Seoul, Washington and Tokyo to counter growing North Korean threats.
sshluck@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · February 21, 2024
3. Seoul's Ties With Havana Seen as Setback for Pyongyang
Pyongyang losing influence over "territory" on the Baduk/Go board.
Seoul's Ties With Havana Seen as Setback for Pyongyang
February 20, 2024 8:38 PM
voanews.com · February 20, 2024
washington —
Seoul's newly forged diplomatic ties with Havana are a diplomatic setback for North Korea, which views Cuba as a brother country, according to analysts.
North Korea has had diplomatic relations with Cuba since 1960, and Cuba maintains an embassy in Pyongyang.
South Korea did not have diplomatic ties with Cuba for 65 years, but the South Korean Foreign Ministry announced it agreed with Cuba to set up ambassador-level diplomatic relations between the two when their respective representatives to the United Nations met in New York on Feb. 14.
North Korea has not made a public statement about South Korea's diplomatic ties with Cuba.
"The establishment of full diplomatic relations between the ROK and Cuba is somewhat of a psychological and symbolic setback for the DPRK," said Evans Revere, a former State Department official with extensive experience negotiating with North Korea.
South Korea's official name is the Republic of Korea (ROK). North Korea is officially the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK).
"Seoul's motivation was to regularize ties with a North Korean ally and achieve a diplomatic and political success in its ongoing competition with the DPRK," Revere said via email on Saturday.
"Cuba's motivation was to try to improve its stagnant economy and improve the lives of its people," added Revere, a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution's Center for East Asia Policy Studies.
Cuba
Terence Roehrig, professor of national security affairs and a Korea expert at the U.S. Naval War College, said via email on Monday that establishing ties with Cuba is "a political win for Seoul in its competition with the North."
He said that the two countries' economic relations will give Seoul expanded access to Cuba's mineral resources while Havana will obtain increased trade and investment from South Korea.
Robert Rapson, who served as charge d'affaires and deputy chief of mission at the U.S. Embassy in Seoul from 2018 to 2021, said via email on Friday the Seoul-Havana ties probably do not cause Pyongyang "so much pain" diplomatically because it has strengthened ties with Russia and looks ahead to a possible meeting with Japan.
Although Seoul and Havana have engaged in cultural exchanges, the newly established ties will aid economic cooperation that will support South Korean companies' entry into the Cuban market, said the South Korean Foreign Ministry in a Feb. 14 statement.
South Korea imported more than $7 million worth of goods from Cuba while exporting $14 million in 2022, according to the Foreign Ministry.
Among items that South Korea imported in 2022, copper accounted for $3.28 million, chemical products $2.13 million, and tobacco products $1.03 million, according to UN COMTRADE database, cited by Trading Economics, which compiles economic databases, indicators and indexes for 196 countries.
SEE ALSO:
Kim Jong Un's Sister Talks of 'New Future' Between North Korea and Japan
The South Korean presidential office said Cuba could emerge as a new market if the bilateral economic ties develop and if the U.S. relaxes the trade embargo imposed on Cuba in 1962.
The U.S. severed its diplomatic relations with Cuba in 1961 after Fidel Castro came to power in 1959. Washington officially restored diplomatic ties with Havana in 2015, but some U.S. policies were reversed in 2017.
Revere said Washington has reacted in a "very low-key manner" because of the sensitivity of Cuba as a domestic political issue in the United States.
However, he continued, the U.S. is probably "quite pleased with ROK-Cuba normalization, especially since Washington has also been trying to improve ties with the island. Going forward, the U.S. and the ROK will need to ensure that they coordinate their respective approaches on Cuba."
South Korea has been working over the years to improve ties with the socialist country whose government bears more resemblance to North Korea's than its own. Havana's political power is wholly vested in its Cuban Communist Party, much like Pyongyang's ruling Workers' Party of Korea.
Seoul's "bold and smart decision" in establishing ties with Havana could expose the Cuban government and people to South Korea's liberal democracy, said Joseph DeTrani, the special envoy for Six Party denuclearization talks with North Korea during the George W. Bush administration.
"North Korea may feel threatened diplomatically by this move," DeTrani said via email on Friday.
The South Korean Foreign Ministry said several cultural exchanges and people-to-people contacts between the two countries have played a role in the normalization of the diplomatic relations.
Among them are a Cuban film festival held in Seoul in 2022 and South Korean movies featured at an international film festival in Havana in December.
The Foreign Ministry also said ArtCor, a fan club of approximately 10,000 members in Cuba devoted to Korean popular culture, contributed to the opening of the diplomatic ties.
Approximately 14,000 South Koreans visited Cuba prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, and about 1,100 ethnic South Koreans live in Cuba, according to the South Korean Foreign Ministry.
voanews.com · February 20, 2024
4. Seoul official discusses N. Korean human rights with US envoy
The ROK/US alliance continues to demonstrate its desire for a human rights upfront approach.
Seoul official discusses N. Korean human rights with US envoy
The Korea Times · February 21, 2024
Julie Turner, left, the U.S. envoy for North Korean human rights, and Chun Young-hee, the director general for the Korean Peninsula peace regime pose for a photo at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, ahead of their meeting in Seoul, Feb. 21. Courtesy of Ministry of Foreign Affairs
A foreign ministry official met with Julie Turner, the U.S. special representative for North Korean human rights, on Wednesday and discussed joint efforts to promote the human rights situation in the reclusive state, the ministry said.
The meeting took place between Turner and Chun Young-hee, director general for the Korean Peninsula peace regime, as the U.S. envoy was visiting Seoul this week to attend an event marking the 10th anniversary of the release of a landmark U.N. report on North Korea's human rights abuses.
At the talks, Chun called for the need to convey the reality about the outside world to the North Korean people as much as promoting the awareness of the North's human rights situations to the international community, the ministry said.
Noting that a U.N. periodic review on North Korea's human rights is scheduled for November this year, Turner suggested South Korea and the U.S. continue to work together on related issues, according to the ministry's release.
They agreed to continue cooperation to protect and support North Korean defectors and to resolve the issues of abductees, detainees and prisoners of war. They also agreed to push for holding the bilateral consultative meeting on North Korean human rights in the first half of this year. (Yonhap)
The Korea Times · February 21, 2024
5. FM Cho holds 1st in-person talks with Japanese counterpart at G20
The ROK and Japan continue to develop and sustain the bilateral relationship to ensure our continued trilateral ROK/Japan/US cooperation for mutual security and prosperity.
FM Cho holds 1st in-person talks with Japanese counterpart at G20 | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Yi Wonju · February 21, 2024
SEOUL, Feb. 21 (Yonhap) -- Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul held bilateral talks with his Japanese counterpart Wednesday on the margins of the foreign ministers' meeting of the Group of 20 countries in Brazil.
Cho and Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa met during the gathering in Rio de Janeiro, according to the foreign ministry. It marks their first in-person talks since Cho took office last month.
During their phone talks last month, the two ministers agreed to continue efforts to strengthen the bilateral ties based on trust.
They also agreed to work together, in close coordination with the United States, in responding to North Korea's provocations, amid concerns over Pyongyang's recent belligerence and its illegal military cooperation with Russia.
Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul arrives at Incheon airport, west of Seoul, on Feb. 20, 2024, before his departure for Rio de Janeiro to attend a meeting of the top diplomats of the Group of 20 countries, in this photo released by the South Korean ministry. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
julesyi@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Yi Wonju · February 21, 2024
6. S. Korea to push to designate July 14 as day for N. Korean defectors
It is great to honor these escapees. They should be honored as being on the forefront of bringing freedom to the north. The examples of their success will be one of the important influences on the korean people in the north.
S. Korea to push to designate July 14 as day for N. Korean defectors | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · February 21, 2024
By Lee Minji
SEOUL, Feb. 21 (Yonhap) -- South Korea will push to designate July 14 as an official day for North Korean defectors, Seoul's point man on Pyongyang said Wednesday, in a move to provide better support to the people who have fled the North and raise awareness for unification.
The unification ministry has been moving to designate a day for North Korean defectors after President Yoon Suk Yeol raised the issue in a Cabinet meeting last month, emphasizing they are South Korean citizens under the Constitution.
The ministry said it chose July 14 as the official day for North Korean defectors, noting that the law on protecting North Korean defectors and supporting their settlement went into effect on that day in 1997.
Unification Minister Kim Yung-ho said the ministry plans to hold a ceremony marking the date and establish a venue for defectors to commemorate fellow defectors who were sacrificed, in an apparent reference to those who died during botched defection attempts.
Still, a ministry official said it needs to work out the details on a specific venue or means of commemorating such defectors, as well as to determine the official English name for the day.
South Korea has a longstanding policy of accepting any North Korean defectors who want to live in the South and repatriating any North Koreans who stray into the South if they want to return.
The total number of North Korean defectors in South Korea had reached 34,078 as of the end of last year, up 196 from the previous year, according to ministry data.
Unification Minister Kim Yung-ho speaks at a forum organized by the Institute for National Security Strategy at a hotel in central Seoul on Feb. 16, 2024. (Yonhap)
mlee@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Minji · February 21, 2024
7. Russia claims 'sanctions war' against Moscow after criticism over Putin's gift to N.K. leader
Seoul should address the UN Sanctions Committee? We know how that works when Russia and China now block every action there. I think the ROK is correct to "rush to the microphones" to call attention to north Korean and Russian malign activity. It is Russia "who doth protest too much."
Russia claims 'sanctions war' against Moscow after criticism over Putin's gift to N.K. leader | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Seung-yeon · February 21, 2024
By Kim Seung-yeon
SEOUL, Feb. 21 (Yonhap) -- Russia accused South Korea and the Western countries Wednesday of waging a "sanctions war" against Moscow, after Seoul implied Russia violated U.N. sanctions with its gift of a luxury car to North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
Maria Zakharova, spokeswoman at Russia's foreign ministry, said that any issue with the compliance obligation should be raised at the U.N. level instead of complaining over the microphone and that South Korea should think about the "illegal" sanctions it has imposed against Moscow.
"If Seoul has questions about the 'compliance with U.N. sanctions' concerning North Korea, they should not rush to the microphones but rather address the U.N. Security Council Sanctions Committee," Zakharova said in a Telegram message, reposted by the Russian Embassy in Seoul on its social media channel.
"By the way, let's also discuss the 12,000-plus illegal sanctions against Russia and the West's sanctions war that undermines the very nature of international law," she said.
This image, captured from the North Korean state television channel, shows the presidential Aurus Senat limousine that Russian President Vladimir Putin rode in with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un when they met for the summit at Vostochny Cosmodrome in the Russian Far East on Sept. 13, 2023. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
Her remarks came a day after South Korea called for Russia's obligation in complying with UNSC sanctions against Pyongyang following the report on the gift to Kim from Russian President Vladimir Putin. Moscow later confirmed that it was a Russian-made Aurus Senat.
The delivery of such a gift could be a violation of the U.N. sanctions banning any supply and transfer of luxury goods to the North.
Zakharova took a swipe at Washington for exerting pressure on Seoul to make it violate "legitimate" trade relations with other countries.
"I think it would be appropriate to ask the advocates of international legal purity what harm illegal sanctions inflict on people worldwide, when due to the West's sanctions wars, they cannot access food, medicine and vaccines," she said.
Russia and North Korea have deepened their ties since Kim and Putin held the rare summit in September last year. Pyongyang is suspected of providing weapons to Moscow for use in the war in Ukraine in exchange for Russia's potential transfer of weapons technology.
South Korea has joined the U.S.-led international moves in imposing sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
elly@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Seung-yeon · February 21, 2024
8. N Korea erases term ‘unification’ from Pyongyang metro station name
I wonder if they will replace it with the word "domination" to describe what has always been the regime's intent for the past 7 decades: to dominate the Korean peninsula under the rule of the guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State.
I think we may be at an inflection point here. This is significant because the Korean people in the north are confused by this action. They have been told they will achieve peaceful unification when north Korea is strong. And unification was the most important hope the people had because they believed it would bring peace and prosperity. But these actions show the Korean people in the north that the regime has failed and that Kim Jong Un has broken his promise and that of his father and grandfather. What will be the domestic effects of this action? It bears close watch.
N Korea erases term ‘unification’ from Pyongyang metro station name
In January, Pyongyang called for revising its constitution to define South Korea as the North’s ‘primary foe.’
By Taejun Kang for RFA
2024.02.21
Taipei, Taiwan
rfa.org
North Korea’s Unification Station on its Pyongyang metro line is just “Station” now after Pyongyang erased the term to show that the South has become its “primary foe,” according to a photo posted by the Russian Embassy in North Korea, the latest sign of Pyongyang’s shift in policy towards dealing with South Korea.
The embassy posted photos of Russian diplomats inspecting Pyongyang metro stations on its official Facebook account on Feb. 20, including one that shows a passenger information display.
The image of the display captures the train at Puhung Station on Pyongyang metro’s Chollima Line, or red line. Previously, this line featured “Unification Station,” also known as “Tongil Station.” However, the photo reveals that the term “Unification” has been removed, leaving it simply as “Station.”
An image of the Pyongyang’s metro’s passenger information display captures the train at Puhung Station on Pyongyang metro’s Chollima Line posted by the Russian Embassy in North Korea on Feb. 20, 2024. The new name of the “Station” circled in red by RFA. (Facebook: Russian Embassy in North Korea)
The move came after North Korean leader Kim Jong Un redefined inter-Korean ties as relations between “two states hostile to each other” during a year-end party meeting.
In a key parliamentary meeting in January, Kim called for revising the country’s constitution to define South Korea as the North’s “primary foe”, and “invariable principal enemy” and to codify a commitment to “suppress” South Korean territory in the event of war.
Last month, the North’s state-run broadcaster aired a map that highlights only the northern part of the Korean Peninsula in red, a move seen as its push to drop references to unification.
In January, Pyongyang eliminated the idea of “one people” shared with South Korea from its media outlets, defining the South as a separate entity rather than the “same Koreans.”
Additionally, the authoritarian state has also dropped a phrase symbolizing a unified Korea from the lyrics of its national anthem, while erasing an image of the Korean Peninsula, viewed as a unification reference, from its major websites, according to media reports.
They include the website of the Foreign Trade of the DPRK, a website created to promote North Korea's trade and attract investments, and Publications of the DPRK, a foreign language publishing house.
DPRK, or the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, is North Korea’s official name.
On Feb. 16, South Korea’s unification ministry voiced regret over the North’s move, lamenting it as an “anti-national” act.
Edited by Elaine Chan and Mike Firn.
rfa.org
9. Russia apparently violating UNSC resolutions by giving N.K. leader luxury car: State Dept.
Kim gets a new luxury car and the people continue to starve and suffer.
Russia apparently violating UNSC resolutions by giving N.K. leader luxury car: State Dept. | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · February 22, 2024
By Song Sang-ho
WASHINGTON, Feb. 21 (Yonhap) -- Russia appears to have violated U.N. Security Council (UNSC) resolutions if it had given North Korean leader Kim Jong-un a luxury car, a State Department spokesperson said Wednesday, noting the supply of transportation vehicles to the North is prohibited under the resolutions.
The North's Korean Central News Agency reported Tuesday that Kim received a Russian-made luxury car from Russian President Vladimir Putin as a gift demonstrating the special bonds between them. Later, the Kremlin confirmed that the car is an Aurus Senat, according to Russia's state-run RIA Novosti news agency.
"If this is true, it would appear to be once again Russia violating U.N. Security Council resolutions that it itself supported," Matthew Miller, the spokesperson, told a press briefing.
Matthew Miller, the State Department spokesperson, speaks during a press briefing at the department in Washington, in this Oct. 30, 2023, file photo. (Yonhap)
Miller also stressed that UNSC resolutions require all U.N. member states to prohibit both the supply of transportation vehicles and of luxury automobiles to North Korea.
In a quip, Miller said he did not know there was "such a thing as a Russian luxury car."
"I hope Kim got the extended warranty," he said. "I am not sure if I were buying a luxury car, Russia would be the place I would look even if it wasn't with respect to sanctions."
Miller also commented on a recent report that a North Korean ballistic missile, which Russia fired against Ukraine last month, contained many parts traced to companies in the United States and Europe.
"We will continue to use all of our relevant tools -- export controls, sanctions, interdiction and law enforcement actions -- to prevent the DPRK from acquiring sensitive items and technology that can be used in unlawful weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile programs," he said. "That incudes preventing Russia from acquiring weapons and other sensitive items, including components from North Korea or from anywhere else."
DPRK stands for North Korea's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
sshluck@yna.co.kr
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en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · February 22, 2024
10. ＜Inside N. Korea＞ Kim Jong-il birthday festivities smaller than in the past…special rations reduced due to lack of funds…focus more on labor mobilizations, with some events canceled
As Thae Yong Ho said to us soon after he left the DPRK. He could no longer explain the contradictions of the DPRK and the Kim family regime.
In this case Kim cannot feed the people with the new luxury car he just received from his fellow traveler, Putin.
＜Inside N. Korea＞ Kim Jong-il birthday festivities smaller than in the past…special rations reduced due to lack of funds…focus more on labor mobilizations, with some events canceled
asiapress.org
A set of North Korean candies with the words "We have nothing to envy" written on it. The candy sets were given to children on Kim Jong-il's birthday in 2012. They were not well received and many people sold them in the markets. The photo was sent to Japan.
Feb. 16 is the anniversary of the birth of Kim Jong Il, North Korea’s second leader who died in 2011. The day, referred to as the "Day of the Shining Star," is considered one of the biggest national holidays in North Korea, along with the Day of the Sun (the anniversary of Kim Il Sung's birth) on April 15.
Before the 1990s, special rations of food, alcohol, miscellaneous goods, school uniforms, and sweets were given to ordinary people and workers as a gift from the supreme leader. However, as the economy deteriorated, the quality and quantity of the rations became poorer. What was the atmosphere of this year's Day of the Shining Star? On Feb. 15, a reporting partner told ASIAPRESS about the situation in Yanggang Province.
"This year, apart from gifts of sweets for students, there were no special rations for ordinary people. No matter how bad the financial situation is, we've always given at least a bottle of alcohol; this year, however, there was nothing except what factories and government agencies gave to workers on an individual basis. There was talk of special rations from state-owned stores on Feb. 10, but in the end, there was nothing. It doesn't even feel like a holiday."
There are two types of special rations for the Day of the Shining Star: those distributed by government agencies to the entire population, and those procured by organizations or businesses at their own discretion and given to workers.
"There is a huge disparity between businesses. In factories that have not been operating properly, there have been cases where special rations have not come out at all this year, causing uproar as workers complain to cadres at meetings or say they'll transfer to other workplaces."
◆ Events canceled as focus shifts to mobilizations
The birthday festival usually includes events such as performances of loyalty songs and gatherings to remember Kim Jong-il. In previous years, all organizations, including schools, youth league branches, women's clubs, and businesses would have participated; however, this year, only students and youth league branches performed at ceremonies.
"Every year, the events are held on the afternoon of Feb. 15, but this year, the Socialist Women's League event was canceled, and only students and the youth league performed. The number of people who could participate in the performance was greatly reduced because they were mobilized for compost production and labor at factories. Yet, I don't think the government intentionally made Kim Jong-il's birthday festival smaller on purpose."
As of Feb. 16, ASIAPRESS was unable to confirm any information on the special rationing and scaling back of the events outside of Yanggang Province. Local governments, rather than the state, have been organizing special rations for ordinary people for some time now, so what the reporting partner in Yanggang Province experienced may be different from other regions. (KANG Ji-won)
※ ASIAPRESS communicates with reporting partners through Chinese cell phones smuggled into North Korea.
A map of North Korea (ASIAPRESS)
asiapress.org
11. S. Korean, Japanese FMs agree to cooperate to address N. Korean issues: Tokyo gov't
Good.
S. Korean, Japanese FMs agree to cooperate to address N. Korean issues: Tokyo gov't | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · February 22, 2024
SEOUL, Feb. 22 (Yonhap) -- The top diplomats of South Korea and Japan have agreed to continue bilateral cooperation to address North Korean issues during their talks on the margins of a foreign ministerial gathering of the Group of 20 countries in Brazil, Tokyo's foreign ministry said Thursday.
Seoul's Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul and his counterpart, Yoko Kamikawa, reached the agreement on Wednesday during their first in-person meeting since Cho took office last month.
"The two ministers exchanged their views on North Korea, which continues provocative actions, and concurred to continue to work together," the ministry said in an English release on its website. "They confirmed close cooperation on North Korea's human right issues, including the abductions issue."
Noting that the two countries have made "significant strides" in their relations since last year, Kamikawa said that she is "eager" to further broaden cooperation in a wide range of fields and deepen bilateral coordination this year, according to the release.
"The two ministers discussed issues of interest in bilateral relations and concurred on continuing close communication, bearing in mind that next year marks the 60th anniversary of the normalization of the Japan-ROK relations," it said, referring to South Korea by its official name, the Republic of Korea.
The agreement on cooperation came after Cho and Kamikawa spoke by phone last month and agreed to work in tandem with the United States to respond to Pyongyang's provocative acts.
During Wednesday's talks, Kamikawa also expressed "strong regret" that the bereaved family of a South Korean victim of Japan's wartime forced labor received compensation from a Japanese firm this week, according to her ministry.
Their meeting came amid growing attention to Japan's diplomatic outreach to the North for a potential summit between Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
Observers said that while focusing on the issue of Japanese nationals abducted by the North decades ago, Kishida could potentially play a role to create momentum for the resumption of long-stalled diplomacy for peace with the recalcitrant regime.
Strained over historical issues, diplomatic relations between Seoul and Tokyo have warmed since the administration of South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol offered in March last year to compensate victims of Japan's wartime forced labor on its own without contributions from liable Japanese firms.
This photo, released by South Korea's foreign ministry, shows Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul arriving at Incheon International Airport, west of Seoul, to depart for Brazil on Feb. 20, 2024. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)
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en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · February 22, 2024
12. Cautious hopes reemerge for Japan's role over N. Korean nuclear conundrum
(News Focus) Cautious hopes reemerge for Japan's role over N. Korean nuclear conundrum | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · February 22, 2024
By Song Sang-ho
WASHINGTON, Feb. 21 (Yonhap) -- With South Korea and the United States estranged from North Korea, cautious hopes are reemerging that Japan's diplomatic outreach to Pyongyang could lead to an opening for the resumption of long-stalled diplomacy for peace with the recalcitrant regime.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has repeatedly expressed his intention to meet "unconditionally" with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un as behind-the-scenes talks have reportedly been under way for a potential summit.
Though some speculate that Kishida eyes a summit with Kim to address the long-festering issue of Japanese abducted by the North decades ago, and shore up his low approval ratings, his overture has drawn attention to whether Japan can help engineer a shift from Pyongyang's provocative streak.
This photo, released by Reuters, shows Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida speaking during a conference on Ukraine in Tokyo on Feb. 19, 2024. (Yonhap)
The premier's pursuit of the summit gained momentum last week as Kim Yo-jong, the North Korean leader's sister, signaled openness to improving relations with Japan -- in a cryptic gesture that critics worried could potentially be intended to cause a fissure in burgeoning cooperation between Seoul, Washington and Tokyo.
Intentions aside, observers noted that Japan could leverage its potential compensation to the North for its colonial-era occupation -- not for the regime's military adventurism -- to help ease evolving North Korean nuclear threats and promote stability on the Korean Peninsula.
"In the broad scheme of things, Tokyo's engagement with Pyongyang could help promote stability on the Korean Peninsula and stabilize inter-Korean relations albeit in the long-run, given that for South Korea, Japan is a friendly nation with shared values," Nam Chang-hee, professor of international relations at Inha University, said.
"Should Japan reach consensus with the North in light of compensation not for the North's nuclear weapons development but for the past colonial rule, the two sides can see their ties improve, likely opening a path for Japan to contribute to addressing the North's nuclear quandary," he added.
For some in South Korea, Pyongyang's unusual show of interest in diplomacy with Tokyo struck a sour note, as it came amid improvement in long-fraught relations between Seoul and Tokyo, and the two neighbors' unprecedented level of trilateral cooperation with Washington to counter North Korean threats.
Last Thursday, Kim Yo-jong, the North Korean leader's powerful sister, said that Kishida might be able to visit Pyongyang should Tokyo drops its "bad habit" of taking issue with the North's "legitimate right to self-defense" and the abduction issue.
The statement came shortly after South Korea established diplomatic relations with Cuba -- in what could be a stinging diplomatic blow to North Korea that has long boasted "brotherly" relations with the Latin American country.
Notable signs of Pyongyang's interest in diplomacy with Tokyo were also detected last month when the North Korean leader sent a rare message of condolence to Kishida over a deadly earthquake.
Should high-level diplomacy between Japan and the North materialize, it would be driven by a convergence of mutual interests, observers said.
Leader Kim could see engagement with Tokyo as a chance to address the North's economic travails that have continued to worsen due to biting international sanctions and the lingering aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Economic development is a critical element of his regime's legitimacy as his grandfather Kim Il-sung and his father Kim Jong-il have been largely credited with other key pillars of the regime's legitimacy -- the ideological and military establishments.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un attends the 19th enlarged meeting of the political bureau of the eighth Central Committee of the Workers' Party, in this undated photo released by the North's official Korean Central News Agency on Jan. 25, 2024. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)
For Kishida, the potential summitry would serve as a rare opportunity to address the long-elusive abduction issue, the settlement of which would help him secure a coveted place in the history of Japanese politics and diplomacy.
But whether the abduction issue can be put on the table for a summit remains to be seen as Pyongyang maintains the issue has already been settled.
Tokyo has officially identified 17 Japanese citizens who were abducted by the North in the 1970s and 1980s. It claims that 12 of them are still in the North as five others returned to Japan following then Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's trip to the North in 2002.
Pyongyang, however, argues that of the 12 Japanese nationals in question, eight passed away with four having never come to the North. The regime is known to have kidnapped Japanese nationals to train its spies in Japanese language and culture.
"Prime Minister Kishida wants to remind the Japanese people that he will do whatever he can to bring closure for families of abductees," Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific security chair at the Hudson Institute, told Yonhap News Agency via email.
"Yet he is also helping to open a diplomatic channel to the Kim regime, which refuses to talk with the Biden or Yoon administrations. The likelihood is that no summit occurs or no progress even if a summit could be arranged. But at least the prime minister will have failed trying," he added.
Pyongyang's apparent move closer to Tokyo stood in stark contrast with its rejection of dialogue with Seoul and Washington. It even branded the South as a "primary" foe and took steps to abolish institutions dedicated to inter-Korean cooperation.
Keeping close tabs on the North's move, an official at Seoul's foreign ministry stressed last Friday that any contact between Tokyo and Pyongyang should be made in a way that would "help promote the peace and stability on the peninsula.
"We are closely communicating with the Japanese side on North Korean issues, including contact between Tokyo and Pyongyang," the official said. "South Korea, the United States and Japan are closely coordinating to bring North Korea back on the path to denuclearization."
On Tuesday, Pentagon's deputy spokesperson Sabrina Singh pointed out that Washington would welcome conversations between Japan and the North should their engagement lead to stability in the region.
This photo, released by the Associated Press, shows Deputy Pentagon press secretary Sabrina Singh speaking during a briefing at the Pentagon in Washington on Jan. 29, 2024. (Yonhap)
While some express optimism for the emergence of diplomatic opportunities, skepticism persists that even if a summit between Tokyo and Pyongyang is realized, it would be difficult to see progress on the goal of the North's denuclearization given the regime has enshrined its nuclear status in its constitution.
"Japan is unwilling to deviate much from the U.S. position on denuclearization and ballistic missiles. Also, remember, North Korea said that it does not want to talk about denuclearization, so it doesn't matter whether it's Washington or Tokyo that is the interlocutor," Frank Aum, a senior expert at the United States Institute of Peace, told Yonhap News via email.
"The only area for discussion between Japan and North Korea is probably on the abductee issue. There is potentially some space for a deal on information about abductees for some economic benefits. But North Korea, in the recent past, has not been very forthcoming about abductee information," he added.
Sydney Seiler, former intelligence officer on North Korea at the U.S. National Intelligence Council, said that Pyongyang does not appear to be serious about the prospects of a summit with Tokyo, as he highlighted that the North has shifted to an inward-looking survival strategy centering on its own internal efforts rather than on diplomacy.
"They might have felt an obligation to respond publicly to Kishida's comment about wanting to talk without openly rejecting it for no reason," Seiler told Yonhap News over the phone.
sshluck@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by Song Sang-ho · February 22, 2024
13. South Korea jails former hero pastor for sexually abusing North Korean teenage defectors
This is a terrible situation. The Korean people from the north, especially women, suffer enough in north Korea and China. They should not have to suffer this abuse from someone in the South. But depravity exists everywhere.
South Korea jails former hero pastor for sexually abusing North Korean teenage defectors | CNN
CNN · by Yoonjung Seo, Jessie Yeung · February 20, 2024
Chun Ki-Won, the South Korean pastor jailed for sexually abusing teenage North Korean refugees, pictured in his office in Seoul in 2019.
Julie Zaugg
Seoul, South Korea CNN —
A South Korean pastor once hailed as a hero for helping North Korean defectors escape to safety has been jailed for sexually abusing minors.
Chun Ki-won was sentenced to five years in prison last week for abusing six teenage victims between 2016 and 2023, all of whom are either North Korean refugees or children of refugees, according to the Seoul Central District Court.
“The nature of the crime was bad considering the circumstances, method, content, period, and number of crimes,” the judge said, according to the court. The judge added that Chun had molested the teenagers while “in a position where he has absolute influence over the victims as a school principal.”
“Chun’s crime appears to have had a negative impact on the victims’ formation of sound sexual values, and the victims also wanted him punished,” the court said.
Chun was head of Christian aid organization Durihana, which he claimed had helped more than 1,000 defectors reach Seoul since 1999. According to the organization’s website, it runs a boarding school for North Korean children to be “taught the Christian faith.”
CNN interviewed Chun and described Durihana’s work in 2019.
Chun was arrested and indicted last September for violating the Act on Sexual Protection of Children and Adolescents, according to the Seoul Central District Court.
The judge also ordered Chun to complete an 80-hour sexual violence-related treatment program. He will also be restricted from employment for five years at organizations related to children and youth with disabilities.
Refugees fleeing North Korea often make the perilous journey across the border into China, before attempting to reach South Korea.
China, a close ally of Pyongyang, doesn’t consider North Korean defectors refugees, instead seeing them as illegal economic migrants. Under a border agreement with North Korea, it forcibly deports them.
Once returned to North Korea, defectors face possible torture, sexual violence, hard labor, imprisonment in political or re-education camps, or even execution by the state, according to activists.
Many defectors rely on a network of secret routes and safe houses, set up by Korean pastors inspired by the Underground Railroad, the secret passages enslaved African Americans used to escape to free states from the late 1700s until the American Civil War.
Chun and Durihana were part of this network, helping refugees and victims of sex trafficking and exploitation. Thousands of North Korean refugees have been abducted or trafficked to work in China’s multimillion-dollar sex trade, according to a 2019 report by the London-based non-profit organization Korea Future Initiative (KFI).
The secret network and the pastors who run it offers a vital lifeline to sex trafficking victims looking for a way to escape, CNN reported in 2019, speaking to refugees who had escaped to South Korea with help from Durihana.
CNN has reached out to Durihana for comment.
Julie Zaugg contributed to this report.
CNN · by Yoonjung Seo, Jessie Yeung · February 20, 2024
14. U.S. says it would welcome dialogue between North, Japan
I would add the caveat that we support this but with the full understanding that this is part of the Kim family regime's political warfare strategy. OF coruse an official spokesman cannot say that publically.
Wednesday
February 21, 2024
dictionary + A - A
Published: 21 Feb. 2024, 18:49
U.S. says it would welcome dialogue between North, Japan
https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2024-02-21/national/northKorea/US-says-it-would-welcome-dialogue-between-North-Japan/1985949
Pentagon deputy spokesperson Sabrina Singh speaks during a briefing at the Pentagon in Washington on Jan. 29. [AP/YONHAP]
The U.S. government on Tuesday (local time) said it would “welcome” dialogue between North Korea and Japan, but also made clear it will not abandon its policy of pursuing the “full denuclearization” of the Korean Peninsula.
The comments by U.S. Defense and State Department spokespeople came after Kim Yo-jong, the powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, said via state media last week that the regime is receptive to Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s stated desire for a potential meeting with her brother.
In a press briefing with reporters, Pentagon deputy spokesperson Sabrina Singh said that Washington supports “diplomatic outreach” to Pyongyang and continues to seek dialogue with the regime.
“We want to see regional stability in the region. If those conversations lead to that, we certainly welcome that.”
But Washington’s response to the possibility of a resumption of diplomatic engagement between Pyongyang and Tokyo was tinged with caution over Kim Yo-jong’s prerequisites for talks, which included demands that Japan not bring up its nuclear weapons program or the issue of Japanese nationals abducted by North Korean agents in the 1970s and 80s, which is Kishida’s primary agenda for seeking a meeting.
Related Article
During a State Department press briefing, spokesperson Matthew Miller said that the possibility of a meeting between the leaders of North Korea and Japan remains a “pretty big ‘if,’” and that Washington would wait to see the Japanese government’s response to Kim’s statement.
Miller also declined to comment on Pyongyang’s motives for responding to Kishida’s comments, calling it “a question for North Korea.”
In a meeting with the Diet on Feb. 9, Kishida said he was seeking a summit with Kim “in various ways” and that he feels a “strong need to change the status quo” and “build relations between the leaders.”
Since taking office, Kishida has voiced his willingness to meet Kim to discuss the issue of the abductions of Japanese citizens.
According to the Japanese government, North Korea abducted 17 of its citizens in the 1970s and ‘80s, five of whom were returned to Japan in 2002 after then-Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi visited Pyongyang.
In his comments to reporters, Miller also said that the “full denuclearization of North Korea” and the Korean Peninsula will “continue to be [U.S.] policy” and that goal “will not change.”
Some experts say Kim’s surprise response to Kishida’s recent comments could be a part of a strategy to wreak division between South Korea and Japan, as both countries have pursued stronger joint security cooperation with the United States.
“North Korea knows that it would be difficult to improve North Korea-Japan relations without raising the issue of abductees and nuclear and missile issues, but it still is going ahead with the idea because it sees Japan as a so-called ‘weak link’ in the trilateral cooperation between South Korea, the United States and Japan,” said Lim Eul-chul, professor of North Korean studies at the Institute for Far East Studies at Kyungnam University, in comments to the JoongAng Ilbo.
BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]
15. Harrowing Prospect of a Second Korean War: $40 Trillion in Damage and Millions Dead
There are very few people today who have experienced the level of combat that we will see if hostilities resume on the Korean peninsula. And none of them are current decision makers or military personnel.
Harrowing Prospect of a Second Korean War: $40 Trillion in Damage and Millions Dead
Years after the 2018 Trump-Kim summit, hopes for Korean Peninsula de-escalation have dwindled, with U.S.-North Korea relations tense again. Analysts predict dire outcomes for a potential conflict, ranging from conventional to nuclear warfare, foreseeing massive casualties and economic devastation.
The National Interest · by Robert Farley · February 19, 2024
Summary: Years after the 2018 Trump-Kim summit, hopes for Korean Peninsula de-escalation have dwindled, with U.S.-North Korea relations tense again. Analysts predict dire outcomes for a potential conflict, ranging from conventional to nuclear warfare, foreseeing massive casualties and economic devastation. Conventional war estimates suggest hundreds of thousands of military and civilian deaths, with property damage potentially reaching $40 trillion, including nuclear scenario fallout. Such a conflict would mark the most devastating post-war event in human and financial costs, highlighting the importance of avoiding policies that could lead to a second Korean War and underscoring the need for continued diplomatic efforts.
A War Like No Other
The summit between President Donald Trump and Supreme Leader Kim Jong-Un in June 2018 seemed to open hope for a general de-escalation of tensions on the Korean Peninsula. Years later, those hopes appear to have come to naught. While the direst predictions of analysts regarding North Korea’s Christmas “surprise” amounted to nothing back in 2019, the relationship between Pyongyang and Washington remains stressed once again.
When negotiations go bad, the attention of analysts immediately turns to the prospect of war.
But with respect to war in Korea, analysts almost uniformly expect the consequences to be almost too horrific to be taken seriously as a realistic policy option.
Korean War 2.0
The terminology we use for describing a conflict on the Korean Peninsula usually devolves into binaries of “nuclear” and “conventional,” but of course both sides have multiple escalatory options within those binaries.
Obviously, estimates of the destructiveness of the conflict depend on the extent and speed of escalation. A conflict that begins with precision airstrikes to degrade North Korean military capabilities will incur less destruction than a conflict beginning with a DPRK surprise attack. Moreover, both sides will calculate their use of force based on short-term and long-term objectives, which necessarily evolve along with the conflict. Nevertheless, our estimates have to start somewhere.
In 2017, Franz Stefan-Gady conducted an extensive analysis of a conventional Korean War, including casualty estimates on either side. Stefan-Gady concluded that both the DPRK and the ROK would suffer military casualties in the hundreds of thousands and that the ROK would suffer similar or greater levels of civilian casualties, especially if North Korea turned its extensive artillery on the civilian areas of Seoul. Although any conflict would likely result in victory for the United States and the Republic of Korea, victory would come at the price of the devastation of the south.
Other estimates have produced compatible results. A U.S. tabletop exercise in 2018 produced estimates of some 10,000 U.S. military casualties in the first few days of a conventional conflict on the peninsula. Casualties after that point would depend on the course of the war. Another Pentagon study predicted a death rate for South Korean civilians of 20,000 per day of conflict, although much of this is front-loaded with the expected initial North Korean artillery barrage.
More generally, Lawrence Freedman evaluated the literature on death tolls in the context of the Korean Peninsula, noting that even as U.S. (and more broadly Western) casualties have dropped in conflicts since World War II, civilian and hostile death tolls in war zones have remained exceedingly high. Given the location of the conflict, neither the U.S. nor the ROK could expect casualty totals to stay low.
Still, much depends on whether or not the combatants decide to go nuclear. An analysis by 38North in 2017 suggested that North Korean nuclear attacks on South Korea and Japan could result in 1.5 million deaths and in excess of five million casualties. In his book the 2020 Commission Report, Jeffrey Lewis estimated initial deaths in South Korea, Japan, and the United States at about 3 million, and follow on deaths from injuries, radiation, and infrastructure collapse at around 5 million. Moreover, North Korea has extensive stocks of chemical weapons that might have limited utility against well-prepared South Korean and U.S. troops, but could dramatically increase civilian casualties.
A Korean War: $40 Trillion in Damage
Property damage in any scenario is virtually incalculable. South Korea is a high-income country, and any significant destruction would have a devastating economic impact. Estimates of the total property damage inflicted on Japan during the 2011 earthquake and tsunami range around $300 billion, and this would amount to a small fraction of the damage a war on the Korean Peninsula could inflict on South Korea, North Korea, and potentially Japan. Lewis estimated property damage at some $40 trillion, although this estimate included the nuclear destruction of Manhattan, Seoul, and Tokyo. Even in a conventional conflict, nuclear installations in both North and South Korea would likely suffer heavy damage, causing lasting contamination across the region.
War with North Korea Would Be Hell
All of the discussion of different scenarios should not obscure the central fact of a second Korean War: it would be the most devasting event of the post-war period in terms of the human and financial cost. As Lawrence Freedman writes, “the safest assumption must be that in its scale and intensity a Second Korean War would be unlike anything experienced in recent decades, especially by Western countries.” No matter how poorly negotiations go, the United States should not seriously contemplate policies that exacerbate the risk of a second war in Korea.
About the Author: Dr. Robert Farley
Dr. Robert Farley, a frequent contributor to TNI, teaches at the Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce at the University of Kentucky. He is the author of the Battleship Book and can be found at @drfarls.
The National Interest · by Robert Farley · February 19, 2024
De Oppresso Liber,
David Maxwell
Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy
Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation
Editor, Small Wars Journal
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Phone: 202-573-8647
email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
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