Quotes of the Day:
"I like to praise and reward loudly, to blame quietly."
- Catherine the Great
"I sit on a man's back, choking him and making him carry me, and yet assure myself and others that I am very sorry for him and wish to ease his lot by all possible means - except by getting off his back."
- Leo Tolstoy
"Wisdom is the right use of knowledge. To know is not to be wise. Many men know a great deal, and are all the greater fools for it. There is no fool so great a fool as a knowing fool. But to know how to use knowledge is to have wisdom."
- Charles Spurgeon
1. North Korea Launches Suspected Ballistic Missile Off Its East Coast
2. Ukraine crisis: North Korea defends Russia as it blames US as ‘root cause’ of invasion
3. N. Korea fires 1 ballistic missile toward East Sea: S. Korean military
4. U.S. condemns N. Korean missile launch, urges Pyongyang to engage in dialogue
5. Top S. Korean, U.S. nuclear envoys discuss N. Korea's missile launch
6. NK leader urges party officials to redouble push for 'socialist construction'
7. Defectors on edge as South Korean election sets out different paths for ties with the North
8. Seoul blasts Pyongyang for latest, untimely launch
9. Influence of Korea's 2030 generation over the presidential election
10. Ukraine crisis casts dark cloud over Korea's growth, inflation
11. Presidential candidate apologizes for remarks on Ukraine's leader
12. Yoon Suk-yeol pursues ‘peace through strength’ on the Korean Peninsula
1. North Korea Launches Suspected Ballistic Missile Off Its East Coast
And blames the US for Ukraine.
north Korea conducts missile tests for two reasons. The main one is to advance its military capabilities to support warfighting. The second is to support its political warfare strategy and blackmail diplomacy. These two are not mutually exclusive but are in fact mutually supporting and reinforcing. The tests are likely not in direct response to The Russian invasion of Ukraine but the regime may assess that with the US distracted it can continue to advance its military capabilities without a significant concern for a US response. However, we must also ask what effect the regime is trying to achieve beyond warfighting capabilities. That is a challenge to assess with any certainty but it is usually part of blackmail diplomacy which is the use of increased tensions, threats, and provocations to achieve political and economic concessions. The single most important concession it seeks is sanctions relief. However, as long as the administration’s Korea policy remains the full implementation of all UN Security Council resolutions then sanctions should not be lifted.
Another way to say all this is that this is business as usual.
North Korea Launches Suspected Ballistic Missile Off Its East Coast
With Sunday’s launch, Pyongyang restarts weapons tests after nearly a month of inaction
WSJ · by Timothy W. Martin
It traveled around 185 miles and hit an altitude of more than 370 miles, before splashing into the waters between Korea and Japan, Tokyo’s military said.
Japanese Defense Minister Nobuo Kishi criticized the North Korean test. “If their idea was to conduct this at an unguarded moment for the international community while it was responding to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we absolutely cannot condone this,” Mr. Kishi said.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, in a photo released by North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency.
Photo: KCNA/via REUTERS
Some security experts said Pyongyang would have wanted to keep a low profile during the Winter Olympics, which took place this month, so as not to embarrass Beijing, one of the regime’s few allies.
North Korea’s state media didn’t have immediate comment.
The U.S. and North Korea haven’t held formal nuclear talks in more than two years. The Kim regime has brushed off outreach from the Biden administration and appeared more focused on domestic affairs. Pyongyang has kept its borders largely sealed off throughout the pandemic. It has spurned offers by international relief groups to provide millions of Covid-19 vaccinations.
North Korea’s Politburo, at a meeting in January, threatened to resume nuclear or long-range missile tests, having refrained from such behavior for more than four years. Pyongyang’s dozens of missile launches in recent years have showcased shorter-range technology that isn’t designed to fly halfway around the world.
Newsletter Sign-up
The 10-Point.
A personal, guided tour to the best scoops and stories every day in The Wall Street Journal.
SUBSCRIBE
But with global attention diverted to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, North Korea may see it as a chance to test weapons without as much risk of punishment, said Jean H. Lee, a senior fellow at the Korea program at the Wilson Center, a think tank in Washington.
“Regardless, I think Kim has his own timeline and goals for new weapons in 2022,” Ms. Lee said. “He wants to have new weapons to unveil this spring. Tests get him closer to perfecting the technology.”
A more distracted U.S. could also influence how North Korea views the prospects of denuclearization negotiations, should the Biden administration be forced to deal with a sustained conflict in Europe and juggle a tense relationship with China, said Go Myong-hyun, a senior fellow at the Asan Institute, a Seoul-based think tank.
“North Korea will be able to tell Washington: ‘We could save you some trouble—let’s settle this,’ ” Mr. Go said. “It’s something North Korea can definitely put on the table.”
North Korea counts neighboring Russia and China as among its closest allies. In recent weeks, the Kim regime reopened its borders to allow in a handful of cargo train shipments inbound from China. Beijing and Moscow have recently blocked Washington’s move to impose extra United Nations sanctions on the Kim regime and have previously advocated for the world to relax the economic restrictions.
America’s “high-handedness and arbitrariness” is the greatest danger facing the world and a root cause for the Ukrainian crisis, having ignored the “legitimate demand of Russia for its security,” according to a statement posted on the North Korea’s foreign ministry website on Saturday. The commentary didn’t mention Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
“Gone are the days when the U.S. used to reign supreme,” the statement reads. “The U.S. embellishes its own interference in internal affairs of others as ‘righteous’ for peace and stability of the world, but it denounces for no good reason self-defensive measures taken by other countries.”
—Chieko Tsuneoka in Tokyo contributed this article.
WSJ · by Timothy W. Martin
2. Ukraine crisis: North Korea defends Russia as it blames US as ‘root cause’ of invasion
The nK Propaganda and Agitation Department is acting in expected ways.
Ukraine crisis: North Korea defends Russia as it blames US as ‘root cause’ of invasion
- Pyongyang blames hypocritical Washington for Ukraine invasion, says US has meddled in other countries’ affairs in name of ‘peace and stability’
- In the past Moscow has sought to ease international sanctions placed on nuclear-armed North Korea on humanitarian grounds
+ FOLLOW
Published: 2:46pm, 27 Feb, 2022
By AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE South China Morning Post2 min
North Korea has accused the United States of being the “root cause of the Ukraine crisis” while defending Russia, in Pyongyang’s first official response to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
Russia ordered troops into neighbouring Ukraine this week, prompting global outcry and punishing sanctions from the West, some directed against Russian President Vladimir Putin himself.
But North Korea, in a muted response issued in the form of a commentary posted on the Foreign Ministry’s website, said the United States was to blame for the unfolding disaster.
Washington has pursued “military supremacy in disregard of the legitimate demand of Russia for its security” according to the commentary, attributed to Ri Ji Song, a researcher at the North’s Society for International Politics Study.
“The root cause of the Ukrainian crisis also lies in the high-handedness and arbitrariness of the US,” said the post uploaded on the North’s foreign ministry website on Saturday.
Ri slammed the US for holding a “double standard” – saying it meddled in the internal affairs of other countries in the name of “peace and stability” but “but it denounces for no good reason self-defensive measures taken by other countries to ensure their own national security.”
“Gone are the days when the US used to reign supreme,” the post said.
The response is a “low-key” official reaction as it was published under an individual name, said Park Won-gon, a professor of North Korean Studies at Ewha Womans University.
“The conclusion is that it’s all because of the US. The main point is that you will suffer if you don’t have power,” he said.
Along with Beijing, Russia is one of the North’s few international friends and has previously come to the regime’s aid.
Moscow has long held the line against increasing pressure on nuclear-armed North Korea, even asking for relief from international sanctions for humanitarian reasons.
China, North Korea’s most important ally, has also blamed the United States and its Western allies in recent weeks for “hyping up” the Ukraine crisis.
South Korea, a close security ally of Washington, said last week it will join international economic sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
3. N. Korea fires 1 ballistic missile toward East Sea: S. Korean military
The nKPA is pretty damn accurate. I do not think they have ever missed the ocean. They aim for the East Sea and they hit it every time.
(5th LD) N. Korea fires 1 ballistic missile toward East Sea: S. Korean military | Yonhap News Agency
(ATTN: UPDATES throughout with more info, U.S. military response in paras 6-9, 12-14)
By Song Sang-ho and Kang Yoon-seung
SEOUL, Feb. 27 (Yonhap) -- North Korea fired a ballistic missile toward the East Sea on Sunday, South Korea's military said, in the recalcitrant regime's eighth show of force this year.
The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said it detected the launch from around the Sunan area in Pyongyang at 7:52 a.m., and that the missile flew about 300 kilometers at a top altitude of 620 km.
The latest launch, the first in just under a month, came 10 days ahead of South Korea's presidential election and amid the armed conflict in Ukraine following Russia's invasion of the country last week.
"For other specifics on the missile, the intelligence authorities of South Korea and the United States are conducting a detailed analysis," the JCS said in a text message sent to reporters.
"Our military is tracking and monitoring related (North Korean) movements and maintaining a readiness posture," it added.
The North is presumed to have fired the missile from a Transporter Erector Launcher (TEL) at a steep angle from the Sunan airfield, informed sources said, raising speculation it could be a medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM).
The missile appears to be similar to the Pukguksong-2 missile, a road-mobile solid-fuel MRBM, known to be the North's ground-based variant of its submarine-launched ballistic missile, the Pukguksong-1, according to observers.
The Sunan airfield is where the North launched what it claimed to be a tactical guided missile on Jan. 17. The missile, called the KN-24, was seen as modeled after the U.S.' Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS).
Last month alone, Pyongyang conducted seven rounds of missile tests, including an intermediate-range ballistic missile launch on Jan. 30.
Soon after the latest launch, Seoul's JCS Chairman Gen. Won In-choul and Gen. Paul LaCamera, the head of the South Korea-U.S. Combined Forces Command, held video talks and reaffirmed their commitment to ensuring the allies' "solid" defense posture, the JCS said.
The presidential National Security Council convened an emergency standing committee session and expressed "grave regrets" over the launch. The session was presided over by National Security Office Director Suh Hoon.
The U.S. Indo-Pacific Command condemned the North's latest missile launch and called on it to refrain from "further destabilizing acts"
"While we have assessed that this event does not pose an immediate threat to U.S. personnel, territory or that of our allies, we will continue to monitor the situation, the command said in a press release.
"The U.S. commitment to the defense of the ROK and Japan remains ironclad," it added. ROK stands for South Korea's official name, Republic of Korea.
Speculation has lingered that the North could engage in more provocative actions down the road as it issued a veiled threat last month to lift its yearslong self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and long-range missile tests.
Pyongyang appeared to have refrained from additional missile tests during the recently concluded Winter Olympics in Beijing, its traditional ally and key economic supporter.
Park Won-gon, professor of North Korea studies at Ewha Womans University, said that the latest missile launch signals it could continue to routinize military provocations as "self-defense" measures in line with its defense development plan marked by weapons modernization schemes.
"The missile test is an expected step. It is a resumption of launches the North had refrained from during the Beijing Olympics," Park said.
"Should South Korea and the international community take issue with the launch, it might strongly protest it, calling the protest an application of 'double standards,'" he added.
The Kim Jong-un regime is apparently seeking to strengthen internal solidarity amid a deadlock in nuclear talks with Washington and economic woes aggravated by the COVID-19 pandemic.
sshluck@yna.co.kr
colin@yna.co.kr
(END)
4. U.S. condemns N. Korean missile launch, urges Pyongyang to engage in dialogue
I offer my six steps for responding to this: HERE
U.S. condemns N. Korean missile launch, urges Pyongyang to engage in dialogue | Yonhap News Agency
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, Feb. 27 (Yonhap) -- The United States condemns North Korea's latest missile launch, a state department spokesperson said Sunday, while calling on the country to engage in dialogue.
The call came after North Korea fired a ballistic missile early Sunday (Seoul time), marking its eighth missile launch since the start of the year.
"The United States condemns the DPRK's ballistic missile launch," the department spokesperson told Yonhap News Agency, referring to North Korea by its official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
"This launch, like the other launches earlier this year, is a clear violation of multiple United Nations Security Council resolutions, and demonstrates the threat the DPRK's illicit weapons of mass destruction and missile programs pose to the DPRK's neighbors and the region as a whole," the official added.
Pyongyang staged seven rounds of missile launches in January alone, marking the largest number of missile tests it conducted in a month.
The latest missile launch comes immediately after the end of the Beijing Winter Olympic Games, a reason why many North Korea watchers believe the recalcitrant state may continue to conduct missile tests down the road.
"We stand with the international community to call on the DPRK to abide by Security Council resolutions, refrain from further provocations, and engage in sustained and substantive dialogue," the department spokesperson said, asking not to be identified.
"Our commitment to the defense of the Republic of Korea and Japan remains ironclad."
North Korea remains unresponsive to U.S. outreach for dialogue. It has avoided denuclearization negotiations with the U.S. since late 2019.
bdk@yna.co.kr
(END)
5. Top S. Korean, U.S. nuclear envoys discuss N. Korea's missile launch
My recommendations for discussion:
First, do not overreact. But do not succumb to the criticism of those who recommend ending exercises. Always call out Kim Jong-un’s strategy As Sun Tzu would advise- “ …what is of supreme importance in war is to attack the enemy’s strategy; … next best is to disrupt his alliances.” Make sure the international community, the press, and the public in the ROK and the U.S. and the elite and the Korean people living in the north know what Kim is doing.
Second, never ever back down in the face of North Korean increased tension, threats, and provocations.
Third, coordinate an alliance response. There may be times when a good cop-bad cop approach is appropriate. Try to mitigate the internal domestic political criticisms that will inevitably occur in Seoul and DC. Do not let those criticisms negatively influence policy and actions.
Fourth, exploit weakness in North Korea – create internal pressure on Kim and the regime from his elite and military. Always work to drive a wedge among the party, elite, and military (which is a challenge since they are all intertwined and inextricably linked).
Fifth, demonstrate strength and resolve. Do not be afraid to show military strength. Never misunderstand the north’s propaganda – do not give in to demands to reduce exercises or take other measures based on North Korean demands that would in any way reduce the readiness of the combined military forces. The north does not want an end to the exercises because they are a threat, they want to weaken the alliance and force U.S. troops from the peninsula which will be the logical result if they are unable to effectively train.
Sixth, depending on the nature of the provocation, be prepared to initiate a decisive response using the most appropriate tools, e.g., diplomatic, military, economic, information and influence activities, cyber, etc., or a combination.
https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/01/north-koreas-ballistic-missile-test-a-6-step-strategy-to-respond/
Top S. Korean, U.S. nuclear envoys discuss N. Korea's missile launch | Yonhap News Agency
SEOUL, Feb. 27 (Yonhap) -- Senior South Korean and U.S. government officials handling North Korea affairs had phone consultations Sunday on Pyongyang's latest missile test, Seoul's foreign ministry said.
Noh Kyu-duk, special representative for Korean Peninsula peace and security affairs, and his American counterpart Sung Kim shared their assessments of the North's move and expressed "deep concern and regret," it said.
Earlier in the day, the North lobbed a ballistic missile into the East Sea in its eighth show of force this year, according to the South's military.
Noh and Sung agreed that the allies will maintain a firm combined defense posture and continue diplomatic efforts to engage North Korea in dialogue on the basis of their close coordination, the ministry added.
lcd@yna.co.kr
(END)
6. NK leader urges party officials to redouble push for 'socialist construction'
Despite the missile launches, the real problems for the Kim regime are internal and the only tool the regime is willing to apply is ideology to continue to maintain iron hand rule and control over the Korean people in the north.
NK leader urges party officials to redouble push for 'socialist construction' | Yonhap News Agency
SEOUL, Feb. 27 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has attended a major ruling party event held in Pyongyang, the country's state media reported Sunday.
In an opening address at the 2nd Conference of Secretaries of Primary Committees of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) on Saturday, he talked about the "serious deviations of not meeting the requirement of the developing reality" despite the growth of a lot of primary organizations of the party, as well as progress in their "position and role," according to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
"He stressed the need to share experience gained in improving work and learn a lesson from mistakes," it said in an English-language report.
The gathering was the second of its kind, with the inaugural session held in December 2016.
It was meant to review the past five years of work of the primary party organizations and find a major way of improving their work, the KCNA said.
Kim announced the opening of the conference, saying it will be "another important milestone" in further strengthening the lower-echelon organizations of the party and making innovations in the operation of the party as required by the new stage of struggle to achieve the overall development of the "socialist construction," it added.
(END)
7. Defectors on edge as South Korean election sets out different paths for ties with the North
South Korea must treat escapees as national resources critical to the unification process.
Defectors on edge as South Korean election sets out different paths for ties with the North
North Korean refugees in the South are watching and waiting as presidential hopefuls battle over the best way to handle Pyongyang
SEOUL
26 February 2022 • 10:32am
Like many in the North Korean refugee community, Choi Jung-hoon is awaiting the South Korean presidential elections on March 9 with some trepidation.
The fraught state of relations between North and South is especially prominent during election season - a raw reminder of the authoritarian country they were forced to leave and their outsider status in their new home.
The end of president Moon Jae-in’s five-year term next month is a chance for a reset. It could help bring Kim Jong-un’s rogue regime to the negotiating table, or it could leave him to continue to build up his weapons arsenal. At worst, it could further escalate tensions between the neighbours.
Yoon Suk-yeol, the conservative candidate, is more hawkish on North Korea Credit: Yonhap/AP
For Mr Choi, who defected to South Korea in 2007, the right-wing candidate was his preferred choice. That was partly down to his party's tougher approach to Pyongyang, and partly down to their treatment of people like himself.
“I’ve seen many presidential elections in Korea and every government always has some kind of policies for North Korean defectors,” he told the Telegraph. “However, I feel that the left-wing parties are not as active in these policies because they feel we are a sore spot in their relationship with North Korea.”
“We have risked our lives to come to the south in search of freedom,” he added.
Under Mr Moon’s Democratic Party, South Korea has aggressively pursued peace talks, organising a flurry of landmark summits between Pyongyang, Seoul and Washington to pull back from the international brinkmanship of 2017 when then-US president Donald Trump threatened Kim with “fire and fury”.
Lee Jae-myung, the liberal candidate, wants to tread more softly with Pyongyang Credit: Jung Yeon-je/AFP
Negotiations collapsed in 2019 over an impasse about denuclearisation and sanctions relief and ties have since deteriorated.
Despite this, the government has kept a tight leash on any anti-Pyongyang activism for fear of angering Kim and scuppering potential future talks.
As a result, people like Mr Choi, who is a member of radical activist group the North Korea People’s Liberation Front (NKPLF), have found themselves banned from waging “information warfare” on Kim’s regime, with parliament introducing jail terms and fines for anyone caught smuggling USB sticks or flying propaganda leaflets across the border in balloons.
Opposition politicians refused to participate in the vote as a symbol of protest, so North Korea activist groups may hope for more leniency under Mr Yoon.
He has also promised tougher measures to bring Pyongyang to heel, such as a “pre-emptive strike” if North’s nuclear and missile attacks appear to be imminent – policies that will not only rile Pyongyang, but neighbouring China.
Tensions have been rising again between North and South Korea after Pyongyang fired multiple missile tests in January Credit: AFP
“Yoon is much more hard-line than his rival,” said Katharine Moon, Professor of Political Science and the Wasserman Chair of Asian Studies, Wellesley College. “He has stated that he would not object to meeting Kim, but that it would have to be on very substantive grounds.
“He and his party want to see verifiable efforts at denuclearisation before any significant diplomatic interaction can take place that might favour North Korea.”
Mr Yoon also favours a closer military relationship with Washington, including resuming large-scale joint military drills that are currently frozen and has suggested redeploying US tactical nuclear weapons in the South.
Yet for all their campaign promises, much still depends on Pyongyang.
“If they continue with the tests, I think the reactions from the two presidents would be similar in the sense that they would continue to impose sanctions and coordinate with the US,” said Ramon Pacheco Pardo, a professor of international relations at King's College London.
“If they show willingness to extend or start a new moratorium on tests and calls for dialogue, I think that whoever wins will go ahead with dialogue.”
Election season is in full swing in South Korea Credit: Ahn Young-joon/AP
It all adds to the uncertainty felt by North Koreans who are already marginalised in South Korean society, a fact highlighted by the extraordinary story of a gymnast who defected to the South last year by vaulting a heavily fortified border fence, only to risk returning again this January.
Despite public rhetoric of wanting peace, many defectors reach the South only to experience prejudice and a struggle to integrate into an unfamiliar and highly competitive society.
Lee Han, a university student in his mid-20s, left the North as a child in the early 2000s and has lost the distinctive accent that would indicate his origins, but said he still feels discriminated against.
He predicted the election would bring little change in that respect: “I feel both sides are not sincere about helping us. The conservatives seem like they just want to use us for their propaganda, and the liberals are too concerned about how the North Korean government will react.”
“Many people get surprised and some even try to keep a distance when they learn that I’m from North Korea. It’s hurtful. We’re not the bloodthirsty enemies that you see in the media, we’re the same as everyone,” he said.
8. Seoul blasts Pyongyang for latest, untimely launch
Words or action?
Sunday
February 27, 2022
Seoul blasts Pyongyang for latest, untimely launch
Travelers at Seoul Station watch the news about a North Korean missile launch on Sunday morning. [YONHAP]
Seoul condemned Pyongyang’s latest missile launch on Sunday, particularly for its choice to do so despite the current crisis in Ukraine.
“The participants [of the National Security Council meeting] expressed their deep concern and grave regret over North Korea's firing of another ballistic missile today, despite the fact that the Republic of Korea and the United States have jointly made diplomatic efforts to resolve the issue while being patient with North Korea's successive missile launches,” the Blue House said in a statement released Sunday.
“In particular, it was pointed out during the meeting that launching a ballistic missile at a time when the world is working toward resolving the Ukraine war is never desirable for peace and stability in the world or in the Korean Peninsula and its region.”
The meeting, joined by National Security Adviser Suh Hoon, ministers of foreign affairs, unification and national defense, members of the National Intelligence Service and head of the South’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), was held in Seoul shortly after the test.
The JCS announced that a projectile “presumed to be a ballistic missile” was launched into the East Sea at 7:52 a.m. Sunday. The missile may have flown some 300 kilometers (186 miles) with an altitude reaching 620 kilometers.
This is the North’s eighth missile test since the start of the year, coming 10 days before the South's presidential election. Its last test was on Jan. 30, when it test-fired Hwasong-12, an intermediate range ballistic missile.
Pyongyang stopped the tests at the start of February, which some experts said could have been in lieu of the Beijing Winter Olympics, held from Feb. 4 to 20.
The nuclear envoys of Seoul and Washington also exchanged views over the phone following the test.
Special Representative for Korean Peninsula Peace and Security Affairs Noh Kyu-duk and his American counterpart Sung Kim “shared an assessment” of the situation related to North Korea's ballistic missile launch and “expressed deep concerns and regrets,” the Foreign Ministry said.
“The two sides agreed to continue their diplomatic efforts to engage North Korea based on close cooperation between the Republic of Korea and the United States.”
A day before the test, North Korea’s Foreign Ministry released a statement written by researcher Ri Ji-song criticizing the United States for “meddling in the affairs” of Ukraine and shaking up the power balance in the region.
“The Ukraine crisis also has its roots in the power and arbitrariness of the United States, which has been clinging to unilateral sanctions and pressure while ignoring Russia's legal security demands and pursuing only world hegemony and military superiority,” said the statement.
If Pyongyang intends to use the test to send a political message, Washington must respond the more sternly, according to some experts.
“The Biden administration needs to show that it maintains strategic focus on the Indo-Pacific, including by responding sternly to Pyongyang’s provocations,” said Leif-Eric Easley, associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul. “North Korea is not going to do anyone the favor of staying quiet while the world deals with Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Pyongyang has an ambitious schedule of military modernization. The Kim regime’s strength and legitimacy have become tied to testing ever better missiles.”
Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Thursday under the lead of Russian President Vladimir Putin, U.S. President Joe Biden imposed sanctions on Russian banks and individuals including Putin and expanded military assistance to Ukraine, the third time within a year that Biden authorized immediate funding to defend Ukraine.
BY ESTHER CHUNG [chung.juhee@joongang.co.kr]
9. Influence of Korea's 2030 generation over the presidential election
Graphics at the link.
Sunday
February 27, 2022
Influence of Korea's 2030 generation over the presidential election
The main opposition People Power Party's presidential candidate Yoon Suk-yeol poses for a photograph with applicants to his campaign's youth outreach posts on Dec. 18, 2021. [YONHAP]
Longtime observers of Korean politics know that the partisan divide in the country runs along a generational fault line: one that pits older voters, shaped by post-war poverty and dramatic economic growth amid Cold War competition, against now middle-aged voters who grew up in relative prosperity but bristled against political repression as they came of age.
The latter band of voters — initially dubbed the “386 generation” in the 1990s for being in their 30s (at the time), attending university in the '80s, and being born in the '60s — have formed a reliable voting bloc for Korean progressives once the country became a full-fledged democracy in 1987, even as they entered their fifties.
However, while the two generations’ respective loyalties for Korea’s political parties persist, even as factions on both sides of the aisle have merged, split, or simply rebranded with a change of name, that ideological framework appears increasingly obsolete to a new generation: the so-called 2030 generation.
The ruling Democratic Party's presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung takes a selfie with young social workers at a public welfare policy forum on Dec. 28, 2021. [YONHAP]
Who is the 2030 generation?
The 2030 generation — so named because its members are currently in their 20s and 30s — refers to young adults born in the 1980s and 1990s, with no memory of either the post-war economic boom or the country’s turbulent road to democracy.
Despite growing up in the most liberal and affluent period of Korea’s modern history, the 2030 generation, which largely corresponds to millennials in the West, is also the country’s most vulnerable — due to increasing job insecurity, unaffordable housing and the widening socioeconomic divide.
The reality lived by this generation is encapsulated by popular terms they coined, such as “gold spoon” and “dirt spoon,” which denote the divergent expectations of society’s haves and have-nots, and “Hell Joseon,” that lambasts the state of cutthroat competition at all stages of young people’s lives, from pre-university schooling and admissions to landing a stable job, while raging at their well-to-do peers who do not suffer the same struggles thanks to money or connections.
Especially pessimistic members of this generation call themselves the sampo saedae — the “three-without generation” — connoting their lack of prospects in finding a spouse, having a child, or owning a house.
What do they want?
The views of the 2030 generation regarding the presidential candidates are not readily apparent in general election surveys, most of which simply query individuals over the age of 18 on their choice for the country’s next president and try to balance the demographics of the respondents by age and gender.
Further complicating the picture is the fact that younger voters are not particularly invested in either of Korea’s two major political camps — embodied by the ruling Democratic Party (DP) and the main opposition People Power Party (PPP) — which command the loyalty of older generations shaped separately by Cold War conservatism and the country’s later struggle against the military dictatorship.
However, targeted polls of those in their 20s and 30s this past winter provide a glimpse into how their societal outlook affects their voting preferences in different ways from older generations.
Shortly after Kim Keon-hee, wife of PPP presidential candidate Yoon Suk-yeol, was hit by accusations in December that she padded her resumés in applications to university teaching posts with fabricated career credentials, a JoongAng survey conducted on Dec. 30 and 31 showed that support for Yoon dropped by almost 9 percent.
That swing was especially pronounced among survey respondents in the 2030 generation, with Yoon hemorrhaging 19 percentage points in support from voters in their 30s and almost 9 percentage points from voters in their 20s.
While the survey did not ask voters why they swung away from Yoon following the allegations, the reasons are not difficult to surmise.
Sensitive to issues of justice and fairness, the anger of the 2030 generation towards differential treatment for the well-connected has exploded on a number of occasions in recent years.
The downfall of former President Park Geun-hye was precipitated by revelations in 2016 that Park’s longtime confidante and friend, Choi Soon-sil, leveraged her ties to the president to extract funding from Samsung for her daughter’s dressage career, and even pressured Ewha Womans University to create a special admissions track for equestrians the same year her daughter applied to college.
Following Park’s impeachment, then-DP candidate Moon Jae-in was elected president in May 2017 on a pledge to “eradicate deep-rooted evils,” riding a wave of public outrage at the nepotism at the very heart of Park’s administration.
It initially appeared that Moon’s campaign had assembled an effective coalition of the DP’s traditional middle-aged voting base, which aligned with his ideas of political reform, and younger voters seething at the extraordinary privileges enjoyed by Choi and her daughter to take control of the Blue House. However, the DP soon discovered accusations of privilege could be a double-edged sword, also wielded against members of Moon's own administration.
That moment came when accusations of similar “gold spoon” treatment were levied against the daughter of Cho Kuk, Moon’s close political ally and his pick for the post of Justice Minister, just as Cho was undergoing the nomination process in autumn 2019.
Cho’s daughter was revealed to have been listed as a co-author of a highly advanced pathology research paper when she was just in high school — a suspicious achievement she listed in her successful applications to Korea University and Pusan University’s graduate medical school.
These allegations against Cho, who had spent much of his academic career railing against inequality in Korean society, struck a nerve among youth and ignited mass protests calling for the withdrawal of Cho’s nomination. Unsurprisingly, Moon’s previously sky-high approval ratings tanked as he stood by his nominee.
Given this history, perhaps it is not particularly surprising that the resume-padding scandal surrounding Yoon's wife sparked a swing of younger voters away from him.
How are the candidates targeting the 2030 generation?
Perhaps conscientious of his falling appeal to millennials, the PPP candidate announced shortly after the start of the new year that he would reorient his presidential campaign to accommodate their concerns.
“From now on, I will carry out my campaign alongside the 2030 generation,” Yoon announced at the PPP’s headquarters in Yeouido, western Seoul, on Jan. 5. “Voters in their 20s and 30s do not yet belong to an established political camp, and I have realized their views about the world are not only flexible, but also perhaps the most open and universal.”
One way in which Yoon has attempted to tap into the youth vote is to pick up a hot, albeit divisive, issue among the 2030 generation: feminism.
In a Facebook post on Jan. 8 which read simply, “Abolish the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family,” Yoon targeted an institution whose function and name in Korean, which literally translates as the Ministry of Women and Families, is perceived by young men as promoting women’s rights at the expense of their own.
His language echoed that of his party’s 36-year-old leader, Lee Jun-seok, who has previously claimed that gender-based discrimination is exaggerated and women’s issues receive too much attention, even as the gender pay gap in the country remains the widest among countries in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
By singling out the gender equality ministry for abolition, Yoon appeared to be trying to woo back young male supporters, whose turn away from the party coincided with the appointment of 31-year-old feminist politician Shin Ji-ye as a senior deputy chair of a now disbanded party committee.
Yoon, who clashed with Lee over Shin’s appointment, wrote a Facebook post on Jan. 3 apologizing for the pick, saying that he “failed to read the minds of those in their 20s and 30s,” and admitting he had “greatly disappointed the younger generation.”
While the PPP candidate has focused on channeling the anger of the male subset of the 2030 generation into votes, his DP rival Lee Jae-myung has attempted to address the controversy over feminism among Korean millennials without picking a side.
Lee, who on Jan. 22 said that he does not wish to “encourage gender conflict to win votes,” has pointedly refused to defend feminist ideas of correcting gender discrimination. Instead, the DP candidate said he hopes that a time might come when politicians could focus on helping “people” rather than “women,” saying the focus on women was “unavoidable because of their disadvantage in society” at a Jan. 9 panel discussion on online sex crimes.
Will this demographic make a difference?
Part of the reason why the 2030 generation is the focus of both major candidates’ outreach in this upcoming election is because this age group is the largest undecided bloc in the electorate.
In the April parliamentary election last year, young voters between the ages of 18 and 39 made up more than a third of all voters who participated in the polls, at 34 percent. Meanwhile, voters over the age of 60 accounted for 27.3 percent of the vote, while those in their 40s and 50s together accounted for 38.7 percent of ballots cast.
Despite their large share of the vote, a smaller proportion of millennial voters participated in the last election compared to older generations. Fewer than 60 percent of voters in their 20s and 30s cast ballots in the 2020 parliamentary election, whereas 70 percent of voters in their fifties and 80 percent of voters in their sixties did so.
However, Korean millennials’ disconnect from the traditional ideological paradigm also leaves their votes open to grabs if candidates can target the issues that matter to them and convince them to turn out at the polls — already, Yoon is reaping the polling dividends of appealing to young male voters.
While the Embrain survey commissioned by the JoongAng Ilbo conducted just before the New Year showed that the PPP candidate was least-preferred among voters in their 20s — trailing even Ahn Cheol-soo of the minor opposition People's Party — by the time of a second JoongAng survey held on Jan. 15 and 16, he had gained a whopping 16.9 percentage points in support among voters in the same age group.
Admittedly, the reverse swing in millennial votes towards Yoon in mid-January did coincide with a slew of negative coverage of Lee Jae-myung’s wife's use of his government-issued credit card, so it is difficult to say for sure that Yoon’s campaign focus on young men was the decisive factor that allowed him to claw back the vote of the 2030 generation in the mid-January survey.
Yet the result mirrors the demographic trends of the Seoul mayoral election in April, when about 70 percent of men in their 20s and younger voted for the conservative candidate — almost equal to the conservative votes cast by men 60 and older.
All told, the dramatic shifts in candidate support driven by members of the 2030 generation suggest they will be a potent voting bloc for whoever can win their ballots.
BY MICHAEL LEE [lee.junhyuk@joongang.co.kr]
10. Ukraine crisis casts dark cloud over Korea's growth, inflation
Everyone is going to be impacted by Ukraine.
Ukraine crisis casts dark cloud over Korea's growth, inflation
A signboard at a gas station in Seoul shows the spike in gasoline prices, Sunday. Nationwide gasoline prices, according to oil price information website Opinet, are on an upward trajectory for six consecutive weeks and have reached 1,739.8 won ($1.44) per liter. Yonhap
Korea to consult US in early March on export curbs on Russia
By Yi Whan-woo
The Korean economy is facing growing risks as the escalating Ukraine-Russia conflict leads to a surge in prices of international oil and raw materials, which will deal a lasting blow to both inflation and the growth of Asia's fourth-largest economy, according to analysts Sunday.
Entering its fourth day, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is underway in multiple areas, spawning fears that the large-scale assault could drag on for months and further affect the prices of oil and other raw materials.
This is likely to weigh further on forecasts of Korea's economic growth and consumer prices, as most projections were made before Russia's threat of war or did not take into account the possibility of the assault growing into a full-scale conflict.
The Ministry of Economy and Finance announced Sunday that the government will begin consultations with the United States beginning in early March over Korea's participation in U.S.-led export curbs on Russia.
On Friday, Washington said export controls on 57 sensitive items and technologies in seven fields _ semiconductors, computers, IT, sensors and laser, autonomous navigation, marine technology and aerospace technology. It also announced the removal of some Russian banks from the SWIFT financial messaging system, essentially barring them from international transactions.
Analysts warn of a domino effect from the crunch in energy and raw materials.
They noted that a rise in oil and raw materials costs will create a ripple effect on manufacturing and daily living expenses, and accordingly, deepen consumer inflation, which so far, is projected to grow 3.1 percent ― a 10-year-high ― in 2022.
The rising costs will also slow down exports and worsen the trade balance that is likely to remain in the red for three straight months in February, and ultimately hurt the annual growth projection in the low 3 percent range.
The benchmark KOSPI, after taking a beating so far this year due to a selling spree by foreign investors, remains in the 2,600 point level after plunging more than 2 percent, Thursday, as investors were spooked by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The won-dollar exchange rate surpassed the worrying threshold of 1,200 won per U.S. dollar, also on Thursday.
People gather in front of a damaged residential building in Koshytsa Street, a suburb of the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, where a military shell allegedly hit, Friday. Russian forces reached the outskirts of Kyiv on Friday as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the invading troops were targeting civilians and explosions could be heard in the besieged capital. AFP-Yonhap
"I would not say the regional risks caused by the Ukraine-Russia conflict on our economy are still higher than the ones caused by the U.S. and China trade rift, but it certainly can deal a blow to us concerning a supply crunch," said Joo Won, deputy director of the Hyundai Research Institute.
He noted that oil prices, which once surpassed $100 a barrel last week and are forecast to surge to as high as $150 a barrel, can go up further if the U.S.-led sanctions on Russia last a long time.
He referred to Russia as being a rich supplier of oil, natural gas, nickel and aluminum, and Ukraine being abundant in wheat and rare gases for chips, such as neon, argon, krypton and xenon.
Bank of Korea (BOK) Deputy Governor Lee Hwan-seok, center, gives a briefing on the country's economic outlook at the BOK headquarters in Seoul, Thursday, hours before Russia's launch of a full-scale attack on Ukraine on the same day. The BOK said its inflation projection of 3.1 percent for 2022 took into account heightening tensions in Ukraine but not the possibility of a full-scale war. Yonhap
According to the Korea Economic Research Institute (KERI), if international oil prices rise to $100 per barrel, Korea's consumer price index (CPI) can go up by 1.1 percentage points.
The Bank of Korea (BOK) on Thursday revised up the 2022 CPI projection from the previous 2 percent to 3.1 percent, after the average monthly inflation rate surpassed 3 percent for four consecutive months through January.
The BOK explained that it took into account escalating tensions in Ukraine in deciding the annual inflation rate, but the projection excluded a possible full-scale war and harsher intentional sanctions.
KERI speculated that Korea's current account balance will decrease by $30.5 billion when oil prices rise to $100 a barrel and by $51.6 billion when they go up to $120 a barrel.
The growth of the country's export-reliant economy in return will shrink by 0.3 percentage point at $100 a barrel and 0.4 percentage point at $120 a barrel. The finance ministry forecast the country's economy to grow 3.1 percent and the BOK projects 3-percent growth this year.
"You can see how the Ukraine crisis can put additional pressure on Korea's inflation and business environment," said Jung Kyu-chul, a fellow at the Korea Development Institute (KDI).
11. Presidential candidate apologizes for remarks on Ukraine's leader
He did err. Good to see him recognize it and apologize.
I think President Zelensky's actions need to be the new litmus test for all national leaders: Will you stay and fight in the face of an enemy attack? (note my sarcasm toward other political leaders but my respect for President Zelensky who should be an inspiration).
Presidential candidate apologizes for remarks on Ukraine's leader
By Kang Seung-woo
Lee Jae-myung, the presidential candidate of the ruling Democratic Party of Korea (DPK), has made an apology for his remarks about Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a TV debate Friday regarding the cause of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which drew a backlash both here and abroad.
Lee Jae-myung, the presidential candidate of the ruling Democratic Party of Korea, participates in a TV debate on SBS in Seoul, Friday. Yonhap"Unlike my intentions, if my words caused misunderstanding to Ukrainians, I lacked the ability to express myself well," Lee wrote on Facebook, Saturday, adding that his remarks were mainly aimed at pointing out the ill-founded diplomatic and security views of his main rival Yoon Suk-yeol of the People Power Party rather than disparaging the Ukrainian president.
During the TV debate held, Friday, Lee said a novice politician with six months of political experience had become the country's leader and caused a major clash by inciting Russia with a hasty promise regarding Ukraine's admission into NATO.
"This is an example of a diplomatic failure. Yoon is too aggressive and rough in his diplomatic remarks, such as his pledge to establish South Korea's capability to launch preemptive strikes (against North Korea)," Lee said.
The former Gyeonggi Province governor added that he was the presidential candidate who was quickest to take a swipe at the Russian invasion and stand up for the Ukrainian government and people.
Denouncing Lee as an international embarrassment, Yoon said he would make an apology to Ukraine on behalf of South Korea, citing posts critical of Lee's remarks that have been uploaded on Reddit, a popular American online community.
"President Zelenskyy has been staying in Kyiv and leading his country's fight against Russia rather than fleeing, but Lee's remarks were an act of mocking 72 percent of the Ukrainian people who are supporting him," Yoon wrote on Facebook, adding that Lee's accusation of Zelenskyy was the outcome of ignorance.
Liberal political commentator Chin Jung-kwon also took a shot at Lee, saying on Facebook, "While the international community is watching the tragedy taking place in Ukraine, you, desperate to get votes, are only blind to it. Are you a human being?"
12. Yoon Suk-yeol pursues ‘peace through strength’ on the Korean Peninsula
From a US perspective there is a lot to like about Yoon's national security policies. But we do not get a vote (nor should we of course).
Yoon Suk-yeol pursues ‘peace through strength’ on the Korean Peninsula
Number-one priority is to counter existential threat from North Korea’s missiles and nuclear weapons
Published : Feb 27, 2022 - 17:34 Updated : Feb 27, 2022 - 22:35
Yoon Suk-yeol, the presidential candidate of the main opposition People Power Party, makes a speech during a campaign stop in Yangcheon-gu, Seoul, on Feb. 26, 2022, ahead of the March 9 election. (Yonhap)
Presidential candidate Yoon Suk-yeol of the main opposition People Power Party seeks to establish “peace through power” on the Korean Peninsula, which is the guiding principle of his security and defense strategy.
“Peace cannot be kept without strength,” retired Army Lt. Gen. Kim Yong-hyun, who advises Yoon on defense and security policy and previously served as chief director of operations at the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told The Korea Herald.
Yoon’s top defense policy priority is expeditiously enhancing South Korean military capabilities and taking substantive measures to counter the existential threat from North Korea’s missiles and nuclear weapons.
Yoon simultaneously seeks to strengthen the South Korea-US combined defense posture and interoperability between the two forces and enhance the extended nuclear deterrence from the US.
Yoon puts a premium on the South Korea-US security alliance and South Korea’s onus as an ally. He believes that Seoul should actively participate in the Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy and endeavor to reinforce trilateral security cooperation among South Korea, the US, and Japan.
Yoon Suk-yeol’s envisioned defense and security policy
Top priority: countering N. Korean threat
In essence, Yoon says that South Korea should reformulate its threat calculus and the national defense strategy reflecting North Korea’s capabilities, while preparing for the worst-case scenario - nuclear attack.
“If I am asked what the biggest threat to our people is, I dare to say that it’s the nuclear and missile threat from North Korea,” Kim said.
“We are not in the right direction. We can never protect our people and guarantee the country’s survival and prosperity in this way.”
Among security and defense challenges, Yoon’s number one priority is to take “substantive countermeasures” and enhance the South Korean military’s independent capabilities against these threats.
Yoon plans to establish a “strategic command,” which enables joint forces operations and is responsible for missile defense and targeting, cyber and electronic warfare, and space operations.
Yoon also aims to expeditiously rehabilitate and complete the three-axis system of the Kill Chain, the Korea Air and Missile Defense (KAMD), and the Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation (KMPR).
The South Korean military had sought to build up the system by the early 2020s, but it has been postponed. The Moon Jae-in government renamed it the “Nuclear-Weapons of Mass Destruction Response System” in 2019 in line with its efforts for inter-Korean reconciliation.
Deterrence by preemptive strike
In particular, Yoon’s camp believes it is imperative for Seoul to develop preemptive strike capability, known as Kill Chain, largely for two reasons: public safety and stronger deterrence. Yoon wants to be prepared for the possibility of launching a preemptive strike if it becomes necessary.
“If North Korea poses an imminent threat with nuclear weapons and missiles, we should make the first move and launch a preemptive attack to protect our people,” Kim said.
“North Korea’s attack with a single nuclear weapon would cause an irreparable and tremendous catastrophe and kill millions of people in South Korea. As we ought to prevent the scenario, it is imperative to build up preemptive strike capabilities.”
Kim also elucidated that a “firm preemptive strike capability will guarantee much stronger deterrence” than a deterrence by punishment approach, which is the one endorsed by presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung of the ruling Democratic Party of Korea.
“The preemptive strike plan encompasses the ability to incapacitate the North Korean leadership. Kim Jong-un will not be able to indiscreetly decide to commence an attack if we firmly secure preemptive strike capability.”
THAAD deployment
Yoon also seeks to reinforce a multi-layered missile defense system. The additional installation of the US Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system is the most feasible way to ameliorate and make up for the weakness of the current missile defense, his campaign says.
The South Korean and US militaries have deployed Patriot Advanced Capability (PAC)-2 and PAC-3 CRI and MSE systems and homegrown Cheongung II (M-SAM), which can engage incoming ballistic missiles at altitudes up to 40 kilometers.
A THAAD battery, which is capable of intercepting ballistic missiles at altitudes between 40 and 150 kilometers, has been deployed in Seongju, North Gyeongsang Province, and operated by the United States Forces Korea. But the current THAAD system, with an intercept range of 200 kilometers, can only reach the southern part of the capital area.
Kim said it was imperative for Seoul to purchase an extra THAAD battery to build up a “multi-tier missile defense architecture” particularly to protect the population of more than 26 million in the metropolitan area.
For now, a low-tier missile defense system, which can defeat incoming ballistic missiles in their terminal phase is in place to defend the capital area.
“If North Korean missiles penetrate a low-tier missile defense shield, it will directly inflict damage on our people. South Korea’s current missile defense system is incomplete and unreliable,” Kim said. “A layered missile defense system gives us more chances to defeat missiles at several points.”
Specifically, he said a THAAD anti-missile battery can intercept 80 percent of North Korea’s 1,000 missiles that pose a direct threat to South Korea.
And if Pyongyang launches short and medium-range ballistic missiles, including Scud, Scud-ER, and Rodong, on a lofted trajectory to strike the capital area, a THAAD battery can intercept the incoming targets.
A THAAD system is vital as a top-tier layered defensive shield, he said, given that South Korea expects to complete the development of an indigenous L-SAM II system, which can intercept missiles at altitudes of 40-150 kilometers, in 2033.
Kim underscored that South Korea should not fear China’s backlash in light of the urgent need to take measures.
“If China opposes or retaliates against our THAAD deployment as a self-defense measure, it would be a clear infringement of sovereignty,” Kim said. “In that case, Beijing also should pull out missile interceptors on a par with the THAAD system.”
Yoon also aims to precipitate the deployment of Low Altitude Missile Defense, which is analogous to Israel’s “Iron Dome” interceptor, in the capital and densely populated areas by 2026. The plan aims to counter threats posed by North Korea’s artillery and multiple rocket launchers.
Enhance viability of US extended deterrence
Yoon views the second most urgent task to be “restoring” and upgrading the South Korea-US alliance.
Yoon will seek to reinforce the US extended deterrence by regularly holding a tabletop exercise organized by the Extended Deterrence Policy Committee (EDPC) and practically operating the high-level Extended Deterrence Strategy and Consultation Group (EDSCG).
The last meeting of the EDSCG between South Korean and US vice ministers of foreign affairs and defense was held in January 2018.
“High-level officials should establish a sense of consensus on enhancing the viability of the US extended deterrence by effectively and properly running the consultative body,” Kim said. “They should meet once or twice a year and discuss how to tailor their response to (North Korean threats) and take necessary measures.”
The deployment of the US strategic assets, including strategic bombers, aircraft carriers, and nuclear-powered submarines, and the regular evaluation of their readiness is crucial.
Strengthen combined defense posture
To strengthen the South Korea-US combined defense posture, Yoon will resume theater-level, large-scale command post exercises (CPX) and field training exercises (FTX).
“CPXs and FTXs are inseparable. They are two sides of the same coin,” Kim said. “When the two go together, we can correctly conduct military drills. If we leave out one axis of the training, it is incomplete.”
Furthermore, South Korea and the US should update and devise military operational plans in response to the increasing missile and nuclear threats from North Korea. Kim underscored that operational plans (OPLAN) are the basis of the South Korea-US joint combat readiness.
“Military operational plans are the foundation of battle. Joint military drills are conducted in accordance with existing operational plans,” Kim said. “We can properly carry out military exercises and maintain readiness posture only when the two develop and share operational plans together.”
Former USFK commander Gen. Robert Abrams previously revealed that the Moon Jae-in government had declined to coordinate on updating OPLAN 5015, which was based on the Strategic Planning Guidance approved back in 2010.
Rigorous preparation for OPCON transfer
Also noteworthy, Yoon seeks to expedite the transfer of wartime operational control (OPCON), but without undermining South Korea-US combined defense posture.
“The South Korea-US combined defense posture is critical in maintaining peace and deterring North Korea’s provocations and war,” Kim said. “If a perfunctory transfer of wartime OPCON weakens or erodes the combined defense posture, the safety of the people will be threatened at the end of the day.”
In particular, the South Korean military should meet two out of the total of three conditions, which are required for the wartime OPCON transition.
According to the bilaterally agreed transition plan, South Korea needs to demonstrate critical military capabilities to lead the Future Combined Forces Command. The South Korea-US alliance has a comprehensive ability to respond to North Korea’s missile and nuclear threats.
Larger contribution to the US Indo-Pacific strategy
In respect to the South Korea-US security alliance, Yoon endorses Seoul’s greater contribution to the US Indo-Pacific strategy.
The position diverges from the Moon Jae-in government’s strategic ambiguity and a balancing act between Washington and Beijing.
South Korea should change its calculus that the country’s economic dependence on China puts a constraint on regional security cooperation with the US. Seoul, the 10th-largest economy in the world by GDP, is capable of diversifying its markets for imports and exports, and supply chains.
Kim underscored that South Korea should bear its basic responsibilities as a US ally.
“South Korea has the advantage of firmly securing security through the alliance. But at the same time, South Korea has limited autonomy, and so does the US. If Seoul does not want its autonomy to be circumscribed by the alliance, it should renounce the alliance,” Kim said. “South Korea should actively participate in the US Indo-Pacific strategy.”
Yoon will also seek to reinforce the trilateral security cooperation among South Korea, the US, and Japan against the “northern triangle of China, North Korea, and Russia” in Northeast Asia.
The Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific strategy takes note of the significance of the trilateral coordination and alignment on regional strategies and North Korea issues.
In particular, Kim underscored that the General Security of Military Information Agreement was more than a bilateral intelligence-sharing pact between South Korea and Japan. The GSOMIA bridges Seoul, Washington and Tokyo for security coordination.
“We need to promptly restore the GSOMIA to firm up the trilateral security cooperation,” Kim said. “We should actively work together with Japan on security issues, which is of great importance in bilateral relations.”
By Ji Da-gyum (dagyumji@heraldcorp.com)
V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.
