Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

“There is nothing so delightful as the hearing, or the speaking of truth. For this reason, there is no conversation so agreeable as that of the man of integrity, who hears without any intention to betray, and speaks without any intention to deceive.”

– Plato

“Thinking is difficult. That is why most people judge.”

– Carl Jung

"Cultivate the habit of being grateful for every good thing that comes to you, and to give thanks continuously. And because all things have contributed to your advancements, you should include all things in your gratitude."

– Ralph Waldo Emerson

1. Michelle Steele Considered as First Ambassador to Korea in Trump's Second Term; Disumbre Considered as Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs

2. S. Korea, U.S. in talks to arrange top diplomats' meeting in Washington soon: Seoul

3. N. Korea begins celebrations for late former leader Kim Jong-il's birthday

4. Sinuiju streets empty as authorities draft people for forced labor

5. N. Korean parents offer desperate bribes to save children from military draft

6. Liberal lawmaker's recommendation of Trump for Nobel Peace Prize stirs controversy

7. NK expected to maintain hostile stance toward US, South Korea in 2025: experts

8. South Korea's crisis in context

9. N. Korea orders 1.2-fold expansion of nuclear enrichment facilities

10. Inflow of N. Korean defectors increases by 20 pct in 2024: official

11. Yoon acknowledges troop dispatch to election commission during martial law decree

12. Yoon asks court to cancel his arrest over brief martial law attempt

13. Ex-military commander refuses to testify at Yoon's impeachment trial

14. Former commander refutes ex-defense minister, shaman testifies before lawmakers

15. No allies safe in Trump's global tariff war, including Korea

16. [Room 39, Lee Jeong-ho's Eyes] "Russia Promises to Provide Farmland to North Korea in Return for Troop Deployment"

17. North Korea could send up to 25,000 additional troops to Russia: Zelenskyy

18. North Korean female teachers earn wages by carrying water during winter break

1. Michelle Steele Considered as First Ambassador to Korea in Trump's Second Term; Disumbre Considered as Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs

This is a Google translation of a VOA report.

Some insights into who might be serving in key positions to include Allison Hooker as the possible Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs.

We will likely see the South Korea press soon pick up on this report

Michelle Steele Considered as First Ambassador to Korea in Trump's Second Term; Disumbre Considered as Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs

https://www.voakorea.com/a/7961611.html

2025.2.4

Jo Eun-jung

Former House of Representatives member Michelle Steel is being mentioned as the first US ambassador to South Korea in the second Trump administration. Former White House Senior Advisor Allison Hooker is being mentioned as the undersecretary of state for political affairs, and former US ambassador to Thailand Michael Disumbre is being mentioned as the assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs. Reporter Cho Eun-jung reports.

Multiple sources in Washington told VOA that former Congresswoman Michelle Steel, a Korean-American, is being considered as the first U.S. ambassador to South Korea in the second Trump administration.

Meanwhile, former U.S. Ambassador to Thailand Michael Desumbre, who was mentioned as a possible ambassador to South Korea along with former Rep. Steele, is likely to be appointed as Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, a source reported.

Another source said Allison Hooker, former White House senior adviser for Asia, is being considered for the third-ranking position at the State Department, under secretary of political affairs.

Former Ambassador Desumbre and former National Security Advisor Hooker both served in the first Trump administration.

The U.S. media previously reported on the 17th of last month that President-elect Trump's side had conveyed to high-ranking State Department officials that they would no longer be needed after the 20th, and that many high-ranking officials had submitted their resignations.

The vacant positions will be filled by about 20 new high-ranking officials, many of whom are known to have held key positions in the State Department and the White House National Security Council during Trump's first term, it said.

A State Department official told the press, “They want to put someone in that position who they have worked with before and is well known.”

Steel , actively participating in 'separated family legislation'

Former Rep. Michelle Steele was a Republican who was re-elected to the House of Representatives, but she narrowly lost in last year's presidential election.

Former Rep. Steele was born in Seoul and grew up in Korea, Japan, and the United States, and spent many years in local Republican politics before being elected to the House, building a solid Republican base.

He entered politics following the 1992 Los Angeles riots and served as the LA Fire Department Commissioner, President of the Korean American Republican Association, and member of the Orange County Board of Supervisors.

He served as a member of the White House Asian-Pacific Advisory Council from 2001 to 2004 during the George W. Bush administration, and as co-chair of the White House Asian-Pacific Advisory Council during the first Trump administration.

Former Congressman Steel has been actively involved in legislative activities to advance the issue of reunions of separated families between the U.S. and North Korea, particularly with regard to the Korean Peninsula issue.

Former White House Senior Advisor Allison Hooker (second from the left, archive photo) visiting North Korea with then-US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on July 6, 2018

Hooker , Trump's First US-North Korea Summit Involved

Allison Hooker, a former White House senior adviser who is being mentioned as a possible candidate for Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, is a leading North Korea expert in the U.S. government. She was involved in the U.S.-North Korea summit during the first Trump administration and previously worked for the State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research for 14 years, analyzing North Korea.

The Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs is responsible for managing and overseeing regional, bilateral, and international organization policies around the world.

Former senior adviser Hooker, who has not given a press interview since the first Trump administration, suggested the possibility of threat reduction and disarmament negotiations with North Korea at a debate hosted by the Washington Times Foundation in 2022.

“Kim Jong-un and the North Korean leadership are relearning the lessons of Libya through the Ukraine crisis,” said Hooker, a former senior adviser. “North Korea recognizes that it needs a nuclear deterrent to make itself vulnerable to invasion, and it is very difficult to change that mindset.”

Former senior adviser Hooker said that while he had hopes for denuclearization during the Trump administration during his 20 years of dealing with North Korea, he does not have high hopes for denuclearization and is not optimistic about it given the current situation.

He then said, “I want to ask, what is our ultimate goal?”

[Recording: Former aide to Hooker] “I guess what I would ask is, on the other side of that, what our ultimate goal would be. Are we looking at, is this going to be threat reduction? Is this going to be arms control? You know, if they’re not going to accept a denuclearization talks, are we going to end up having to call it something else?”

“Is threat reduction or arms control the goal of the United States?” he asked. “If North Korea does not accept denuclearization talks, will we eventually have to give it another name?”

As the possibility of the US' goal shifting from complete denuclearization to arms control negotiations is repeatedly raised, former Senior Advisor Hooker's past remarks are drawing attention.

Michael Disumbre, former U.S. Ambassador to Thailand

Disumbre , Ambassador from Lawyers

Michael Disumbre, a former U.S. ambassador to Thailand who is being mentioned as the assistant secretary for East Asian and Pacific affairs, is a lawyer who specializes in mergers and acquisitions and private equity funds.

It is reported that he returned to his legal practice after serving as the US Ambassador to Thailand from 2020 to 2021 during the first Trump term.

Former Ambassador Disumbre said in a 2021 Hudson Institute conversation on bilateral relations between the United States and Thailand that the U.S.-China strategic competition is having implications across the Indo-Pacific region.

[Recording: Former Ambassador Disumbre] “What is that strategic context? Fundamentally that strategic context is the US-China strategic competition and this flows through all of the Indo-pacific and is crucially relevant in Thailand. As we've seen in the last six to eight years China has been expanding its influence in power regionally and globally and notwithstanding its protostations to the contrary China is clearly pursuing regional hegemony in Asia and this is the context when we need to look back at Thailand and the role that it has played.”

He pointed out that “China has been expanding its influence both regionally and globally, and is clearly pursuing regional hegemony in Asia.”

Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Defense announced on the 21st that Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for East Asian Affairs John Noh was sworn in on the 20th.

Deputy Assistant Secretary Roh served on the U.S. House Special Committee on China and as a federal prosecutor.

Also, former Senate Armed Services Committee expert Kevin Kim has begun serving as the China Coordinator and Deputy Assistant Secretary for China, Japan, Korea, Mongolia, and Taiwan Affairs in the Department of State's East Asian and Pacific Affairs Bureau.

Deputy Assistant Secretary Kim served as an aide to Senator Bill Hagerty and worked in the State Department’s Office of the Special Representative for North Korea Policy during the first Trump administration.

This is Eun-Jeong Jo from VOA News.

2. S. Korea, U.S. in talks to arrange top diplomats' meeting in Washington soon: Seoul

S. Korea, U.S. in talks to arrange top diplomats' meeting in Washington soon: Seoul | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Seung-yeon · February 4, 2025

By Kim Seung-yeon

SEOUL, Feb. 4 (Yonhap) -- South Korea is in talks with the United States to hold a meeting between their top diplomats in Washington at an early date, Seoul's foreign ministry said Tuesday, in what will be, if realized, the first such talks since the launch of the Donald Trump administration.

The ministry's comment came amid growing speculation that Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul might travel to the U.S. capital sometime next week to meet one-on-one with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

In their phone conversation last month, the two sides said they plan to coordinate details for in-person talks at the earliest possible date.

"The foreign ministry is consulting with the U.S. to arrange a foreign ministers' meeting as soon as possible," ministry spokesperson Lee Jae-woong said in a press briefing.

Cho is likely to visit Washington next week, ahead of his possible trips to Germany and South Africa to attend two separate multilateral gatherings set to take place in each country later this month, a diplomatic source said.

Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul enters the foreign ministry after attending an interagency ministers' meeting in Seoul on Feb. 4, 2025. (Yonhap)

The Munich Security Conference is due to be held in the German city from Feb. 14-16. South Africa is scheduled to host a foreign ministers' meeting of the Group of 20 (G20) nations in Johannesburg from Feb. 20-21.

"We're positively considering the minister's attendance for both occasions," a source said. "We are preparing with the possibility in mind that the talks (with Rubio) could take place before the Munich (conference)."

If realized, the trips will mark Cho's first overseas visits since the political turmoil triggered by President Yoon Suk Yeol's short-lived martial law and his subsequent impeachment.

Under the acting leadership of Deputy Prime Minister Choi Sang-mok, South Korea has been working to reassure other countries of its steadfast commitment and diplomatic capabilities despite the political chaos.

With his new U.S. counterpart, Cho will have a range of issues to discuss, including the bilateral alliance, North Korean threats, and key economic agendas affecting South Korean companies, especially in light of Trump's policies.

In Washington, Cho could also meet with U.S. National Security Adviser Mike Waltz.

Cho could also use the Munich and G20 sessions to highlight the country's commitment to key international issues and reaffirm its diplomatic standing.

"By actively participating in these meetings, we can demonstrate that we continue to function even under the acting leadership system," another source said.

elly@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Kim Seung-yeon · February 4, 2025

3. N. Korea begins celebrations for late former leader Kim Jong-il's birthday

By all means celebrate while the Korean people in the north suffer.

N. Korea begins celebrations for late former leader Kim Jong-il's birthday | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Park Boram · February 4, 2025

SEOUL, Feb. 4 (Yonhap) -- North Korea has begun celebrations for the anniversary of late former leader Kim Jong-il's birthday, a national holiday, by opening a commemorative photo exhibition, according to state media on Tuesday.

The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported that the photo exhibition commemorating Kim opened the previous day at Pyongyang's People's Palace of Culture, ahead of his birthday on Feb. 16.

Both his birthday and that of late national founder Kim Il-sung, on April 15, are observed as national holidays in North Korea.

The exhibition displayed photos and videos of not only Kim Jong-il but also his son and current leader Kim Jong-un, with the KCNA emphasizing the achievements of both.

At the end of last month, North Korea published postage stamps commemorating the 83rd anniversary of the late leader's birth, kicking off celebrations for the occasion.

This year, however, North Korean state media have not used the reverent term "the Day of the Shining Star" for Kim Jong-il's birthday.

For Kim Il-sung's birthday last year, North Korea also withheld the similar term "the Day of the Sun", instead referring to it simply as "April 15."

South Korea's unification ministry has assessed that such moves may have been an effort to reduce the current leader's reliance on his ancestors for authority and strengthen his status as a standalone leader.

This image, published on Jan. 30, 2025, by the Korean Central News Agency, shows North Koreans visiting the statues of late North Korean leaders Kim Il-sung (L) and Kim Jong-il on the occasion of the Lunar New Year. (For Use Only in the Republic of Korea. No Redistribution) (Yonhap)

pbr@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Park Boram · February 4, 2025

4. Sinuiju streets empty as authorities draft people for forced labor

A helluva way to celebrate Kim Jong Il's birthday.

Sinuiju streets empty as authorities draft people for forced labor - Daily NK English

"These actions reflect the party's ambition to make the border city of Sinuiju a showcase of national power and development," a source told Daily NK

By Seon Hwa - February 4, 2025

dailynk.com · by Seon Hwa · February 4, 2025

FILE PHOTO: A picture of a streetside market in Hoeryong taken in 2019. (Daily NK)

North Korean authorities are stopping pedestrians in border areas and forcing many to work on greenhouse construction projects. These daytime roundups are occurring in North Pyongan province, a region that suffered heavy flooding last year.

According to a source in North Pyongan province recently, agents from Unified Command 82, which oversees the suppression of anti-socialist behavior, have been questioning pedestrians in broad daylight on the streets of Sinuiju. Those unable to prove their workplace affiliation or show evidence of official business are being sent to greenhouse construction sites.

The agents are also using accusations of “non-socialist behavior” – such as improper dress or street vending – as justification for conscripting people into forced labor. Those sent to the construction sites typically end up digging holes or sorting rocks.

These roundups appear linked to Kim Jong Un’s recently announced plan for extensive greenhouse construction. The initiative was originally presented as a way to improve living conditions in flood-damaged areas, but has now become a pretext for forced labor.

During a Dec. 21 ribbon-cutting ceremony for homes in flood-affected areas of North Pyongan province, Kim announced plans to “build extensive greenhouses covering hundreds of jeongbo (roughly equivalent to hectares) on Wihwa and Taji islands next year.”

“We will transform Sinuiju into a progressive city that embodies the modernity, originality, and national character that demonstrate Socialist Korea’s advancement and might,” Kim declared.

While Kim stated that “units from the Korean People’s Army and the Paektusan Hero Youth Shock Brigade would lead the greenhouse construction,” and these groups have indeed begun foundation work on the islands, Unified Command 82 is using street sweeps to create additional labor crews.

“These actions reflect the party’s ambition to make the border city of Sinuiju a showcase of national power and development,” the source explained.

The sweeps are affecting people across different areas and social groups. “A moonshine trafficker in Kaechon was detained by Unified Command 82 on Jan. 15 and forced to clear ground at a construction site for three days. Housewives are also frequently being conscripted,” the source added.

Sinuiju residents have grown increasingly resentful of the large-scale construction project. “People here don’t want these greenhouses or other facilities. They’re worried about being drafted for state construction projects nationwide and being forced to pay for building materials again this year,” the source said.

Read in Korean

dailynk.com · by Seon Hwa · February 4, 2025

5. N. Korean parents offer desperate bribes to save children from military draft

N. Korean parents offer desperate bribes to save children from military draft - Daily NK English

In Anju, a couple offered a recruitment official $2,000 to exempt their child from the draft, even promising to "sell their home" if more money was needed

By Lee Chae Eun - February 4, 2025

dailynk.com · by Lee Chae Eun · February 4, 2025

North Korean soldiers (DPRK Today)

North Korean parents are desperately trying to keep their children out of the army ahead of the country’s spring draft, with mounting concerns over troop deployments to Russia. Parents are aggressively competing with one another, offering increasingly large bribes to prevent their children’s enlistment.

“Parents of March graduates have begun frantically meeting with military recruitment officers,” a Daily NK source in South Pyongan province said recently. “News of troop deployments to Russia has spread throughout Pyongsong, Anju and other areas of the province, leading parents to do everything possible to keep their children from enlisting.”

The reports of North Korean troops being sent to Russia have sparked widespread alarm, particularly as some families receive military death notifications for their enlisted children.

“Five families in Pyongsong and Anju recently received death notifications for sons who had served less than five years,” the source said. “They weren’t told when, where, or how their sons died—just given a notification. While there’s no confirmation these deaths occurred in Russia, that’s what local residents suspect.”

In this climate of fear, parents are scrambling to get their sons removed from the draft list. One Pyongsong resident in their 50s recently approached a military recruitment official with $3,000 and Russian cigarettes, claiming their son’s poor health meant he “wouldn’t last a month in the army” and requesting a one-year deferment “for recovery.” The timing suggests a hope that Russian deployments will have ended by then.

In Anju, a couple in their 40s offered a recruitment official $2,000 to exempt their child from the draft, even promising to “sell their home” if more money was needed.

For struggling families who can’t afford bribes, working in the mines has become an alternative to military service. “People traditionally avoided mining because it meant their children would also become miners,” the source explained. “But now, they see it as preferable to being sent to war.”

The situation extends to Hyesan in Ryanggang province, where some are considering extreme measures. “Parents are so terrified of their children being sent to war that they’re willing to consider self-inflicted injuries—like severing fingers or toes—if other options fail,” a Ryanggang source said.

Military recruitment officials are overwhelmed by the constant stream of desperate parents. In Sariwon, North Hwanghae province, wealthy families make backdoor deals while poorer families make daily visits to plead with officials. Parents specifically beg to keep their children out of “units attached to the Reconnaissance General Bureau,” which they believe are being deployed to Russia.

“Recruitment officers try to present the Reconnaissance General Bureau as an honor, but parents remain unconvinced—they’ll accept any other unit assignment,” the source said. “Officials are now avoiding these distraught parents who follow them around begging for their children’s exemption.”

Read in Korean

dailynk.com · by Lee Chae Eun · February 4, 2025

6. Liberal lawmaker's recommendation of Trump for Nobel Peace Prize stirs controversy

Perhaps two desired effects: (1) influence POTUS to conduct maximum engagement with Kim Jong Un and make concessions and (2) curry favor from POTUS for the liberal party in South Korea and undermine the legitimacy of the conservative party in the eyes of POTUS. This second may have already been achieved as the nomination caused the People Power Party to condemn the action which is unlikely to please POTUS. (they should have just ignored this)

Liberal lawmaker's recommendation of Trump for Nobel Peace Prize stirs controversy

The Korea Times · February 4, 2025

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks as he signs executive orders in the Oval Office in the White House, Monday, in Washington. AP-Yonhap

By Lee Hae-rin

A wave of controversies has erupted between the two rival parties here following a recommendation on Tuesday by a main opposition lawmaker suggesting that U.S. President Donald Trump be considered a candidate for the Nobel Peace Prize.

According to the party's senior spokesperson, Jo Seoung-lae, Rep. Park Sun-won of the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) recommended Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize for his role in facilitating dialogue between North Korea and the U.S. during former President Moon Jae-in's administration.

“The recommendation was made on Jan. 30 to the Norwegian Nobel Committee and party leader Lee Jae-myung and senior DPK Rep. Kim Min-seok have been informed about this,” he said.

Jo's confirmation came after Park was seen at the National Assembly on Monday, where he and Kim spoke over a notebook containing a memo about the recommendation of Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.

The memo outlines a series of actions taken or to be done, including: "Trump's Nobel Peace Prize recommendation letter — submission and receipt completed by the Norwegian committee — notification (nondisclosure for now) (to be reported to the White House)," the page read.

Rep. Park Sun-won of the main opposition Democratic Party of Korea, center, speaks with party leader Lee Jae-myung, right, and senior lawmaker Kim Min-seok at the National Assembly, Monday, holding a notebook that contains information about his recommendation that U.S. President Donald Trump be considered a candidate for the Nobel Peace Prize. Yonhap

"I highly appreciate Trump's contribution to world peace and stability through the promotion of peace on the Korean Peninsula, denuclearization and strengthening of the Korea-U.S. alliance during his 45th presidency," Park said in a press release.

"It is sufficiently in line with the ideals and values of the Nobel Peace Prize in that Trump emphasized the restoration of relations with North Korea at his inauguration ceremony as the 47th president of the United States on Jan. 20, and drew international expectations for denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula," the lawmaker added.

However, the recommendation sparked criticism, with many questioning its legitimacy given Trump's discriminatory policies and hate speech aimed at illegal immigrants and minorities.

People rally in support of immigrants in response to the Trump administration's new policies in San Diego, California, Sunday. U.S. President Donald Trump began his second term on Jan. 20 with a flurry of executive actions aimed at overhauling U.S. immigration. AFP-Yonhap

Trump has decided to mobilize the best military units to control the U.S. border. It is estimated that some 110,000 Koreans could also face deportation under his administration.

"Economic peace is also valuable in this day and age, but Trump is causing conflict around the world with tariffs, building a wall on the border and expelling immigrants. It is hard to believe that our party recommends him for the Nobel Prize at a time when Koreans are also on the verge of deportation," a DPK lawmaker said, "Even U.S. Republicans will laugh at this."

In response, the ruling People Power Party (PPP) issued a statement on Tuesday, criticizing the recommendation as "shameful flattery" intended to pave the way for DPK leader Lee to become president in a future election.

"DPK lawmaker Park Sun-won's recommendation of Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize is a 180-degree turn from the DPK's position on the U.S. that it has shown so far, and it is making viewers doubt their views," the PPP's senior spokesperson wrote.

Meanwhile, Jo added, "Opinions may vary, but Park has made the recommendation based on certain criteria for judgment, and it seems that the recommendation has already been made."

The Korea Times · February 4, 2025

7. NK expected to maintain hostile stance toward US, South Korea in 2025: experts

It will maintain its "hostile stance" until POTUS agrees to make concessions.

NK expected to maintain hostile stance toward US, South Korea in 2025: experts

The Korea Times · February 4, 2025

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, front row center, visits the country's fissile materials production base and nuclear weapons institute, at an undisclosed location in the North, Jan. 29, in this photo released by the Korean Central News Agency. Yonhap

Pyongyang likely to focus on domestic affairs, leverage ties with Moscow to ensure regime stability

By Kwak Yeon-soo

North Korea will likely maintain its hostile stance toward the U.S. and South Korea while strengthening ties with Russia and China in 2025, experts predicted Tuesday.

“While 2024 was a year of crisis and decision for North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, 2025 may present opportunities for consolidation and achievement,” Kwak Gil-sup, president of One Korea Center and adjunct professor at Kookmin University’s Unification and Convergence Program, said at a forum hosted by Kyungnam University's Institute for Far Eastern Studies.

“Kim made risky bets in 2024 by advocating a ‘two hostile states’ theory, diverging from his predecessors’ approach toward South Korea and sending troops to aid Russia in its war against Ukraine.”

2025 holds significance as it marks the final year of Pyongyang’s five-year economic and defense development plan, the second year of the two hostile states theory as well as the regional development policy and the 80th founding anniversary of the Workers’ Party of Korea. It is also the year before the Ninth Party Congress scheduled for January 2026, although the meeting could be convened earlier.

“North Korea’s strategic vision for 2025 may include fully implementing its two hostile states theory, increasing troop dispatch to support Russia and continuing war of words with the U.S. and South Korea,” Kwak said.

Lee Kwan-se, third from right, director of the Institute for Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam University, speaks during a forum on 2024 review and 2025 policy outlook for North Korea at the institute in Seoul, Tuesday. Courtesy of Institute for Far Eastern Studies

Chung Young-chul, professor at Sogang University’s Graduate School of Public Policy, analyzed that North Korea appears to be focused on domestic affairs.

“At the year-end party meeting and New Year assembly, there were no strong messages directed at the U.S. or South Korea. With the return of U.S. President Donald Trump to the White House, observers anticipate that he would resume dialogue with Kim. But Pyongyang seems reluctant to engage with Washington,” he said.

“North Korea will continue to ignore South Korea even after a new administration steps into power. In other words, any form of inter-Korean exchanges or cooperation seems unlikely this year. On the other hand, the reclusive regime is expected to maintain a stable relationship with China and bolster its military capabilities through deepening ties with Russia.”

The professor noted that despite signs of strain in North Korea-China ties, both Pyongyang and Beijing will seek to mend their relationship given the multipolar world order and Trump’s desire to reengage with Kim.

Ahn Kyung-mo, a professor at Korea National Defense University, explained that North Korea has shifted its defense strategy from bandwagoning to internal balancing centered on military self-reliance and nuclear development.

The professor predicted that North Korea will actively pursue an “expanded internal balancing" strategy, leveraging its partnership with Russia to ensure regime stability while simultaneously managing its relationship with the U.S.

“This shift presents an unprecedented opportunity for the Kim regime, reinforced by the strengthening of North Korea-Russia military cooperation amid the rise of a multipolar world order,” Ahn said.

The Korea Times · February 4, 2025

8. South Korea's crisis in context

A short but insightful essay.

South Korea's crisis in context

The Korea Times · February 4, 2025

By Arthur I. Cyr

South Korea’s beleaguered President Yoon Suk Yeol has now been formally charged with insurrection and will stand trial. Yoon remains in office though formal duties have been suspended. He was arrested Jan. 15, but his salary continues, and he still received a planned raise.

He is the first president of South Korea to be formally charged with a crime while still in office.

The crisis began on Dec. 3, when Yoon formally declared and attempted to impose martial law amid political turmoil caused by accusations of corruption.

Soldiers did surround and enter the National Assembly but did not actually take control of the building. The massive popular protest of Yoon’s move included members of his own political party.

This serious crisis overshadows but does not undo South Korea's progress.

As recently as the early 1960s, the nation was one of the poorest in the world. A peasant society, the entire Korean Peninsula was devastated by the Korean War of 1950-53. Yet today, the Republic of Korea ranks among the top 20 economies in the world, holding leadership roles in the automobile, advanced electronics, shipbuilding and other industries.

Rapid industrialization and economic modernization are complemented by the striking transition from dictatorship to democracy. President and General Park Chung-hee stifled incipient democracy and imposed extremely harsh military authoritarianism for nearly two decades.

He was assassinated in 1979 by the head of the KCIA, the national intelligence agency. In Korean memory, he remains a respected symbol of strength and effectiveness for many, though with progress and the passage of time that fades.

Park was succeeded as chief executive by two more generals, Chun Doo-hwan and Roh Tae-woo, but growing pressure for true democratic representation proved insurmountable.

The capstone of the transition to democracy was the election of Kim Dae-jung as president in 1998. He completed his five-year term without interruption, and in 2000 received the Nobel Peace Prize.

A public symbol of opposition to Park's dictatorship, he was imprisoned for several years. On another occasion, KCIA agents kidnapped him and planned to kill him. Only the intervention of senior U.S. CIA official Don Gregg saved his life.

South Korea’s remarkable domestic accomplishments have unfolded while the country has become increasingly influential in global arenas. In 2012, the Barack Obama administration shrewdly nominated President Jim Yong Kim of Dartmouth College, who was born in Seoul, as president of the World Bank.

The original vision of the United Nations combined the competing goals of favoring the most powerful nations and inclusive global representation. Kim and former U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon personify South Korea’s significant expanding role as a bridge between developed and developing nations.

Market economies and reasonably representative governments now characterize a steadily increasing share of the world’s developing nations. In short, South Korea is positioned to lead developing nations toward prosperity.

The United Nations today is strong. The U.N. and U.S. decisions in 1950 to defend South Korea were vital to this success. During the long Vietnam War, South Korea maintained approximately 50,000 troops in South Vietnam. They were overwhelmingly combat forces. The principal incentive was loyalty to the United States forged during the Korean War.

Yoon initially had the opportunity to develop South Korea’s leadership, bolstered by the firmly established friendship and alliance with the United States.

Unfortunately, this has ended but the rule of law still prevails.

Arthur I. Cyr (acyr@carthage.edu) is the author of “After the Cold War – American Foreign Policy, Europe and Asia” (NYU Press and Palgrave/Macmillan; Korean language edition by Oruem Publishing).

The Korea Times · February 4, 2025

9. N. Korea orders 1.2-fold expansion of nuclear enrichment facilities

Likely an action to support political warfare and blackmail diplomacy try to drive POTUS to make concessions.

N. Korea orders 1.2-fold expansion of nuclear enrichment facilities - Daily NK English

dailynk.com · by Jeong Tae Joo · February 4, 2025

North Korea’s Rodong Sinmun newspaper reported on Sept. 13, 2024, that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un paid an on-site guidance visit to the Nuclear Weapons Institute and a "production base of weapon-grade nuclear materials,” where he inspected the production of nuclear warheads and nuclear materials and called for increasing the production of weapons-grade nuclear materials. (Rodong Sinmun, News1)

North Korea’s Defense Industry Department has been expanding uranium enrichment facilities to boost weapons-grade nuclear material production since Jan. 20, Daily NK has learned.

According to a Daily NK source in North Korea recently, the department received an internal directive on Jan. 12, signed by Kim Jong Un, ordering “a 1.2-fold increase in centrifuges at major nuclear facilities and the installation of advanced uranium enrichment equipment.” The department’s technical division and Second Economic Committee began implementing these changes on Jan. 20.

The expansion primarily focuses on increasing weapons-grade nuclear material production through additional centrifuges and more efficient equipment. This appears to be part of North Korean authorities’ strategic effort to strengthen their nuclear arsenal.

The source reports that the Defense Industry Department is constructing a dedicated power network with energy storage systems to ensure stable operation of the expanded facilities. Technical teams are also conducting tests to enhance cooling systems and stabilize centrifuge operations.

Additionally, the department is professionalizing its on-site technical staff responsible for weapons-grade nuclear material production. Selected technicians from nuclear research agencies under the department are undergoing intensive training programs.

“This project is central to our defense industry and national defense policy, aimed at achieving independent mass production of weapons-grade nuclear materials,” the source said. “The Defense Industry Department has emphasized the need for thorough organization and perfect execution.”

However, some department officials have raised practical concerns about operating the expanded facilities. While the technical team has been conducting systematic on-site tests during the first quarter, issues have emerged regarding power supply, equipment reliability, and radiation safety.

Critics within the department suggest that stabilizing the expanded equipment and upgraded systems may take longer than the department’s first-quarter timeline.

“A working-level official revealed that additional inspections are being conducted after early operations exposed defects in some components,” the source said. “While equipment expansion is proceeding according to schedule, there are concerns that continuing work without resolving the electricity supply issues could lead to instability.”

Read in Korean

dailynk.com · by Jeong Tae Joo · February 4, 2025

10. Inflow of N. Korean defectors increases by 20 pct in 2024: official

New members of the north Korean diaspora,

Inflow of N. Korean defectors increases by 20 pct in 2024: official | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Park Boram · February 4, 2025

SEOUL, Feb. 4 (Yonhap) -- A total of 236 North Koreans defected to South Korea last year to resettle, marking a roughly 20 percent increase from the previous year, a unification ministry official said Tuesday.

The 2024 total, including 210 women, compared with 196 in 2023, bringing the accumulated number of North Korean defectors in South Korea to 34,314, the official said on condition of anonymity. Of them, 24,746 are women.

Of those who defected to South Korea last year, only three crossed the inter-Korean border, while most others stayed in a third country before flying to the South.

The increase in the 2024 tally could be attributed to the lifting of COVID-19 border controls, which facilitated the inflow of North Korean defectors who had stayed in a third country for an extended period, according to the ministry official.

The 2024 defectors also included several high-level North Korean officials, the total of whom was in the single digits, the official said, without providing further details due to personal security risks.

The reason women account for the lion's share of defection is that men in North Korea are often more tightly bound by organizations and must show up for work every day, while women are less bound by these requirements, the official noted.

This file photo, provided by the unification ministry, shows Vice Unification Minister Kim Soo-kyung (C) posing for a photo with North Korean defectors at a farm they operated on Nov. 6, 2024. (Yonhap)

pbr@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Park Boram · February 4, 2025

11. Yoon acknowledges troop dispatch to election commission during martial law decree

At the heart of this is election fraud and subversion by China and north Korea.

(3rd LD) Yoon acknowledges troop dispatch to election commission during martial law decree | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Oh Seok-min · February 4, 2025

(ATTN: RECASTS headline, lead with Yoon's comments; ADDS more details in paras 2-8, 23-25, new photo)

SEOUL, Feb. 4 (Yonhap) -- President Yoon Suk Yeol said Tuesday he ordered sending troops to offices of the National Election Commission (NEC) during his martial law declaration as he has suspected election fraud allegations.

Yoon made the claim while attending the fifth formal hearing of his impeachment trial at the Constitutional Court in Seoul, where he again denied allegations that he ordered military commanders to drag lawmakers out of parliament in an attempt to prevent them from blocking its imposition.

"I ordered then Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun to dispatch troops to NEC offices," Yoon said. "It was not meant to conduct any criminal investigations, but to check systems and how they are operated."

Yoon added that he issued the order to Kim days before declaring martial law while discussing the matter with Kim.

"When I dealt with electoral fraud cases as a prosecutor, I saw many incomprehensible, fake ballots. And I've long thought of election fraud problems," Yoon said.

Hundreds of troops were sent to election offices in Seoul, Gwacheon and Suwon in Gyeonggi Province, during the Dec. 3 martial law decree.

Yoon has said that he ordered Kim to check the voting system of the election watchdog, raising questions over the NEC's credibility following alleged cyberattacks by North Korean hackers.

The NEC has dismissed election fraud allegations as groundless and called the troop deployment unlawful.

President Yoon Suk Yeol (L) speaks during his impeachment trial at the Constitutional Court in Seoul on Feb. 4, 2025, in this photo provided by the court. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

The National Assembly voted to impeach Yoon over his shocking, albeit short-lived, imposition of martial law. Yoon was indicted over charges of leading an insurrection and has been under arrest.

Yoon is also alleged to have sent military troops to the National Assembly to keep lawmakers from voting down the martial law declaration and to have planned to arrest key political figures.

"Looking into the case, noting actually happened. But there is talk of me making an instruction of the sort. I feel like we are chasing the moon's shadow on a lake," Yoon said. "You would know the true nature of this case if you saw it based on common sense."

Yoon claimed that dragging lawmakers from parliament could not have been possible as there are thousands of civilians in the National Assembly compound and troops were withdrawn after martial law was lifted.

Military officers take photos of system servers at an office of the National Election Commission on Dec. 6, 2024, in this file photo provided by the National Assembly. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

During Tuesday's session, Lee Jin-woo, former head of the Capital Defense Command, said he had not received orders from Yoon or then Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun to prevent lawmakers from voting to lift martial law.

Lee reportedly told prosecutors earlier that Yoon ordered him to instruct troops to carry out lawmakers from inside the National Assembly building on the day martial law was imposed, "firing guns and breaking down doors" if necessary.

Lee, who was accused of involvement in the martial law imposition and is currently under arrest, was called as a witness by the National Assembly's legal team.

The parliamentary team has been acting as the prosecutor in the trial on whether to uphold or reject the Assembly's impeachment of Yoon.

Asked if Kim's order to send troops to parliament was legal, Lee said he still believed it was legitimate in accordance with the Martial Law Act.

Lee, however, refused to testify further.

"I myself am involved in a criminal case and a process is under way to determine whether to accept or deny the prosecution's report," Lee said, referring to his own trial on charges he played a key role in an insurrection.

"I am aware it is a serious and important situation, but please understand that I am restricted considerably," he said, suggesting his answers could work against him.

Yeo In-hyung, former head of the Defense Counterintelligence Command, also attended the session as a witness but refused to testify.

Yeo allegedly received orders from Kim to arrest and detain opposition leader Lee Jae-myung and then ruling party leader Han Dong-hoon, among others.

Asked if he received a list of politicians to be arrested when martial law was in force, Yeo said he will make a response later during a criminal trial.

Yeo, however, admitted to have listed the names of "specific figures" to then National Police Agency chief Cho Ji-ho and asking to locate them.

Yeo also said that he asked Cho to send police officials to form a joint investigative body in line with the decree and operation plans.

Lee Jin-woo (L), former head of the Capital Defense Command, speaks during President Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment trial at the Constitutional Court in Seoul on Feb. 4, 2025, in this photo provided by the court. (PHOTO NOT FOR SALE) (Yonhap)

Hong Jang-won, former first deputy director of the National Intelligence Service, also attended the hearing and claimed that he received a phone call from Yoon instructing him to "round them up and get rid of them."

Yoon has defended his actions as a "warning" to the opposition party while denying giving orders to arrest politicians.

hague@yna.co.kr

graceoh@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Oh Seok-min · February 4, 2025

12. Yoon asks court to cancel his arrest over brief martial law attempt

Yoon asks court to cancel his arrest over brief martial law attempt | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Haye-ah · February 4, 2025

SEOUL, Feb. 4 (Yonhap) -- Impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol asked a court Tuesday to cancel his arrest over his brief imposition of martial law.

Yoon's legal defense team submitted the request to the Seoul Central District Court as it prepares to hold the first preparatory hearing of his criminal trial on Feb. 20.

Yoon was indicted Jan. 26 on charges of leading an insurrection through his short-lived imposition of martial law on Dec. 3.

He has been held at the Seoul Detention Center in Uiwang, south of the capital, since investigators detained him at his official residence on Jan. 15.

Under the Criminal Procedure Act, a court must cancel the arrest of an accused at its discretion or at the request of a prosecutor or the accused when the grounds for arrest have expired.

The court has seven days to respond to the request.

President Yoon Suk Yeol attends a hearing of his impeachment trial at the Constitutional Court in Seoul on Feb. 4, 2025. (Pool photo) (Yonhap)

hague@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Haye-ah · February 4, 2025

13. Ex-military commander refuses to testify at Yoon's impeachment trial

Conflicting testimonies.

(LEAD) Ex-military commander refuses to testify at Yoon's impeachment trial | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Haye-ah · February 4, 2025

(ATTN: UPDATES with details of hearing; CHANGES headline, photos)

SEOUL, Feb. 4 (Yonhap) -- A former military commander accused of involvement in President Yoon Suk Yeol's brief imposition of martial law refused to testify during Yoon's impeachment trial Tuesday.

Lee Jin-woo, former head of the Capital Defense Command, appeared during the fifth formal hearing of the trial at the Constitutional Court after being called as a witness by the National Assembly's legal team.

The parliamentary team has been acting as the prosecutor in the trial on whether to uphold or reject the Assembly's impeachment of Yoon over his short-lived Dec. 3 imposition of martial law.

A file photo of Lee Jin-woo, former head of the Capital Defense Command (Yonhap)

"I myself am involved in a criminal case and a process is under way to determine whether to accept or deny the prosecution's report," Lee told the hearing, referring to his own trial on charges he played a key role in an insurrection.

"I am aware it is a serious and important situation, but please understand that I am restricted considerably," he said, suggesting his answers could work against him.

Yoon was also at the hearing.

Lee, who is currently under arrest, reportedly told prosecutors earlier that Yoon ordered him to instruct troops to carry out lawmakers from inside the National Assembly building on the day martial law was imposed, "firing guns and breaking down doors" if necessary.

Aside from Lee, Yeo In-hyung, former head of the Defense Counterintelligence Command, and Hong Jang-won, former first deputy director of the National Intelligence Service, were also called to testify during Tuesday's hearing.

Yeo allegedly received orders from then Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun to arrest and detain opposition leader Lee Jae-myung and then ruling party leader Han Dong-hoon, among others.

Hong, meanwhile, has told lawmakers he received a phone call from Yoon instructing him to "round them up and get rid of them."

Yoon has defended his actions as a "warning" to the opposition party while denying giving orders to arrest politicians.

President Yoon Suk Yeol (L) attends his impeachment trial at the Constitutional Court in Seoul on Feb. 4, 2025. (Pool photo) (Yonhap)

hague@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by Lee Haye-ah · February 4, 2025

14. Former commander refutes ex-defense minister, shaman testifies before lawmakers

Former commander refutes ex-defense minister, shaman testifies before lawmakers

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2025-02-04/national/politics/Former-commander-refutes-exdefense-minister-shaman-testifies-before-lawmakers/2234854

Published: 04 Feb. 2025, 17:23

Updated: 04 Feb. 2025, 18:38

CHO JUNG-WOO
cho.jungwoo1@joongang.co.kr

Korea JoongAng Daily

Former commander refutes ex-defense minister, shaman testifies before lawmakers

3 min

Audio report: written by reporters, read by AI

Former Special Warfare Commander Kwak Jong-keun speaks during a parliamentary special committee hearing at the National Assembly in Yeouido, western Seoul, on Feb. 4, as part of the investigation into President Yoon Suk Yeol's alleged insurrection charges. [YONHAP]

Former Special Warfare Commander Kwak Jong-keun on Tuesday refuted the former defense minister's claim that President Yoon Suk Yeol had ordered the removal of "agents," not lawmakers, from the National Assembly during the brief imposition of martial law.

Testifying before a parliamentary special committee investigating Yoon’s insurrection charges, Kwak, who has been indicted and detained over his alleged involvement in the martial law declaration, stressed that the impeached president had “clearly ordered” the removal of lawmakers. He said the president had called him on a secure phone on Dec. 3 and instructed him to clear people from the National Assembly in Yeouido, western Seoul.

Yoon blames DP for martial law in first prison meeting with PPP lawmakers

Yoon ordered left-leaning newspapers' power cut during martial law, prosecutors say

Prosecutors investigate police for alleged role in martial law

According to Kwak, he received the secure phone from the Presidential Security Service last year.

Reaffirming his previous testimony from Dec. 10, Kwak said Yoon had ordered him “to break down doors and forcibly remove” those inside the National Assembly, adding that there were no agents in the main building at the time of the order.

He additionally confirmed that lawmakers and their aides were the only targets of the removal order.

“I did not hear any instructions to maintain order, protect citizens or that martial law was declared as a mere warning — either before or during its imposition,” Kwak said.

During the fourth impeachment trial hearing on Jan. 23, Yoon’s legal team asked former Defense Minister Kim Yong-hyun whether he had been ordered to remove agents rather than lawmakers. Kim responded, “Yes,” adding that Kwak must have misunderstood the president’s orders.

Fact check: What Yoon did or didn't order during Dec. 3 martial law decree

Ex-defense chief takes most of blame for Yoon's martial law decree during Constitutional Court hearing

Kim also testified last month that martial law had been imposed as a “warning to anti-state forces” and was not intended to impact citizens negatively. He further said that the decree was not meant to interfere with the legislature or the lifting of martial law.

Speaking in an interview with Democratic Party (DP) Rep. Kim Byung-joo, released on YouTube on Dec. 10, Kwak said that Yoon had ordered him to break into the National Assembly compound and forcibly remove lawmakers as the quorum for the plenary session to lift martial law had not been met.

During the hearing on Tuesday, lawmakers from the conservative People Power Party (PPP) accused the DP of influencing Kwak’s testimony, citing his relationship with Rep. Kim, a former military commander.

Kwak, however, stressed that he had testified “of his own will and at no one’s request.”

Shaman Lee Seon-jin speaks during a parliamentary special committee hearing at the National Assembly in Yeouido, western Seoul, on Feb. 4, as part of the investigation into President Yoon Suk Yeol's alleged insurrection charges. [NEWS1]

On the same day, Lee Seon-jin, known as a shaman whom former Defense Intelligence Command chief Noh Sang-won frequently visited, testified before a parliamentary investigation that Noh had repeatedly asked her about the fortunes of military personnel and to identify “betrayers" after giving her a list of soldiers.

Lee added that Noh also inquired about Kim’s future, where she told him that Kim seemed likely to become defense minister and assured Noh that he could serve the nation again if he worked with him.

Lee previously told local media that Noh had visited her frequently between February 2022 and January 2024 to ask about the fortunes of military personnel.

Noh has been indicted and is currently in detention, accused of conspiring with Kim to plan the martial law plot.

BY CHO JUNG-WOO [cho.jungwoo1@joongang.co.kr]

15. No allies safe in Trump's global tariff war, including Korea

It does not have to be this way, especially with Korea (and Japan). They will cooperate.

Monday

February 3, 2025

dictionary + A - A

No allies safe in Trump's global tariff war, including Korea

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/2025-02-03/national/diplomacy/Korea-potentially-a-prime-target-in-Trumps-global-tariff-war/2233928

Published: 03 Feb. 2025, 18:20

Updated: 03 Feb. 2025, 19:45

SEO JI-EUN
seo.jieun1@joongang.co.kr

Korea JoongAng Daily

No allies safe in Trump's global tariff war, including Korea

5 min

Audio report: written by reporters, read by AI

U.S. President Donald Trump talks to reporters after signing an executive order on tariffs against China, Canada and Mexico in the Oval Office on Jan. 31 in Washington. [AFP/YONHAP]

[NEWS ANALYSIS]

U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war is expanding, with Trump warning Sunday that he would extend tariffs to the European Union after earlier targeting China, Canada and Mexico — signaling Trump’s broader strategy using tariffs not only as a tool for trade and commerce but also as a ploy to diplomatic and defense negotiations.

More concerning for U.S. allies is that Trump made it clear that no country is safe.

Stocks tumble, won weakens as Trump tariffs ripple through nation

China threatens 'necessary countermeasures' to Trump's tariffs

Trump's tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China expected to have limited impact on oil prices

DP chief calls for special committee to address Trump tariffs as fear of global trade war grows

Seoul vows vigilance in face of Trump policy uncertainty

The Korean government convened an emergency response meeting on Monday afternoon, led by the Minister for Trade, Cheong In-kyo, focusing on assessing the potential impact on South Korean businesses operating abroad.

“While the impact may vary depending on industry and company size, Korean businesses [operating in China, Canada and Mexico] are expected to be affected by U.S. tariffs,” a Korean Foreign Ministry official said in a closed-door briefing Monday. “We plan to share information and discuss countermeasures with other major economies, including the EU and Japan, which have a significant presence in Mexico.”

The official also said that while Trump has not yet announced specific tariffs on Korean exports, the ministry is "closely monitoring the situation in anticipation of a broader expansion of U.S. trade restrictions."

The flags of Mexico, the United States and Canada fly in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, on Feb. 1. [REUTERS/YONHAP]

While Korea has so far avoided direct tariff measures, possibly due to President Yoon Suk Yeol's impeachment and ongoing legal proceedings, once the Korean political landscape stabilizes in the coming months, Seoul could also become a primary target.

A similar scenario played out during the first Trump administration following the ouster of then-President Park Geun-hye, and trade negotiations gained momentum after President Moon Jae-in assumed office in May 2017 after an early presidential election.

Analysts predict Trump's tariff pressure could serve as bargaining chips to push Korea on three key issues: increasing the defense cost-sharing burden for U.S. troops stationed in Korea, reducing Korea’s trade surplus with the United States and forcing stronger alignment with Washington’s anti-China policies.

Trump has consistently portrayed Korea as a “money machine,” suggesting it should pay much more for U.S. military presence in the country.

In October last year, the Joe Biden administration signed the 12th Special Measures Agreement, setting Korea’s defense cost-sharing contributions through 2030. However, Trump could unilaterally push to renegotiate or even override the deal with an executive order, with him saying last October that Korea "would be paying $10 billion a year" to station U.S. Forces Korea, or USFK, in the country, far exceeding the current agreed-upon contributions.

Some even fear he may use the potential reduction of U.S. troops in Korea as an additional bargaining chip.

Lee Tae-woo, Korea's chief negotiator for the defense cost-sharing talks, right, signs the preliminary agreement for the 12th Special Measures Agreement (SMA) with Linda Specht, U.S. Senior Advisor in the Bureau of Political-Military Affairs, at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs building in Seoul on Oct. 4, 2024, agreeing to increase Korea's first-year contribution by 8.3 percent in 2026, with subsequent annual increases linked to inflation rather than defense budget growth. [MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS]

“Trump's frequent use of tariffs as a scapegoat for the ills in trade negotiations could be used as a weapon in diplomatic and defense talks," said Kim Jae-chun, a professor at Sogang University’s Graduate School of International Studies. "He could threaten tariffs or even U.S. troop reductions if Korea doesn't pay the demanded defense sharing costs.”

Korea’s record-high trade surplus with the United States, reaching $55.7 billion in 2024, is also expected to put it in Trump’s crosshairs.

"When Trump first took office in 2017, Korea’s surplus was significantly smaller, yet he immediately pressured Seoul into renegotiating the Korea-U.S. FTA," remarked a diplomatic source. "It’s almost certain he will push for new trade adjustments now.”

While Trump has expanded his tariff war, experts say his ultimate goal remains to pressure China and demand full cooperation from allies in isolating Beijing. Korea, given its deep trade ties with China, could find itself in a difficult position.

“We should note the imposition of tariffs on the export of Korean products containing China-made components," said Cho Byung-jae, former chancellor of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy. "The [extent of these measures] will likely become clearer after his administration’s ‘America First’ policy review in late April."

Trump has targeted Korea’s ties to China before.

In 2018, his administration imposed a 25-percent tariff on Korean steel under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, citing concerns that Chinese steel was being rerouted through Korea. Although Seoul avoided the full impact by agreeing to a quota system limiting its steel exports to the U.S. to 70 percent of previous levels, experts warn that a second Trump administration could adopt an even harder stance.

Korea’s dependence on Chinese trade could also pose indirect risks.

If Trump tightens U.S. trade barriers, Chinese manufacturers may flood European and global markets, intensifying competition for Korean businesses. Additionally, an oversupply of Chinese goods could drive down prices globally.

The Korean government appears to be delaying an early confrontation with Washington as Trump prioritizes short-term diplomatic gains in the early stages of the new administration.

“If we’re going to be hit, it’s better to delay it as much as possible,” a government source said.

BY PARK HYUN-JU, LEE YOO-JUNG, SEO JI-EUN [seo.jieun1@joongang.co.kr]

16. [Room 39, Lee Jeong-ho's Eyes] "Russia Promises to Provide Farmland to North Korea in Return for Troop Deployment"

This is a Google translation of Ri Jong Ho's regular RFA column.

[Room 39, Lee Jeong-ho's Eyes] "Russia Promises to Provide Farmland to North Korea in Return for Troop Deployment"

https://www.rfa.org/korean/news_indepth/providing-farmland-dispatching-troops-02032025152341.html

WASHINGTON-Noh Jeong-min nohj@rfa.org

2025.02.03

A North Korean farmer works in a vegetable nursery on a cooperative farm.

/REUTERS

00:00 / 00:00

“Hello . I am Ri Jeong-ho, a former high-ranking official from the Daeheung General Bureau of Room 39 of the North Korean Workers’ Party.”

[ Based on the experience of a former high-ranking North Korean official, we dig into the secrets of the Kim Jong-un regime and its core power circles , examine the truth and lies of North Korea's policies today, and analyze politics , economy , and society through 'Room 39 , Lee Jeong-ho's Eyes' , with Lee Jeong-ho, head of the Korea Prosperity Development Center (KPDC) .]

“ Russia is said to be providing the Kim Jong-un regime with a vast area of land comparable to the entire area of North Korea . In response, the North Korean authorities will send tens of thousands of discharged soldiers to the areas provided by Russia to cultivate wheat and corn , and the resulting food will be sent to North Korea .”

It is said that discussions have been underway since December 2023 on a plan to build settlements on land provided by Russia to North Korea and send discharged soldiers to farm the land . This could be a cooperation that would benefit both countries, with North Korea solving its chronic food shortage and Russia efficiently managing its land .

“ If North Korea-Russia agricultural cooperation is successful this time , I believe it will be an important opportunity for the two countries to strengthen their strategic alliance beyond military cooperation.”

However , some argue that the international community must pay attention to this issue, as working conditions in Russian settlements are very poor and there is a high possibility of systematic human rights exploitation .

Formation of settlements for North Korean residents … Discussed from December 2023

[ Reporter ] Hello , Mr. Lee Jeong-ho . Today, you said you would tell me the news that you heard directly . It is said that they are trying to solve North Korea's food problem by having North Korean discharged soldiers settle in Russia for the long term and do farming . This could indicate a strategic change in North Korea-Russia relations . Could you explain in detail ?

[ Lee Jeong-ho ] Yes , according to recent news from North Korean officials in China , Russia is providing the Kim Jong-un regime with a vast area of land comparable to the entire area of North Korea . I think it will be the Russian Far East or the Kursk region . Accordingly, the North Korean authorities will send tens of thousands of discharged soldiers to the area provided by Russia to cultivate wheat and corn there , and the resulting food will be sent to North Korea . They plan to build houses, hospitals , schools , and convenience facilities in the area and form a settlement for long-term residence . When I checked with other sources to confirm the reliability of this information , I found that there have been discussions within North Korea on several occasions since December 2023 .

This kind of cooperation can also bring strategic benefits to both North Korea and Russia. It can be a practical alternative to solve North Korea's chronic food shortage . North Korea has an absolute lack of available farmland , and especially due to climate conditions and an inefficient agricultural system, food is always in short supply . Therefore , operating farms on Russian land and securing a stable food supply chain can be a realistic solution to North Korea's food shortage . From Russia's perspective , it can also efficiently manage vast tracts of land that have not been utilized so far , and it can also gain economic benefits by receiving land fees if farming goes well in that area . In addition , this kind of cooperation can be a means to solidify the relationship between Russia and North Korea and secure an economic and strategic partnership ( cooperative relationship ) even under UN and Western sanctions . If this project is carried out , it is highly likely that it will be carried out in the long term after the Russia - Ukrainian war ends .

Unloading wheat at North Korea's Hungnam port / AFP

[ Reporter ] If what you just said is true , then tens of thousands of North Koreans are living in Russia and farming . That sounds new to me . Have there been cases in the past where North Korea has pursued similar overseas agricultural projects ? Also, if Russia provides land in exchange for sending North Korean troops , and North Koreans farm there , do you think that will be an opportunity for North Korea-Russia relations to become closer ?

[ Lee Jeong-ho ] As far as I know , there has been no official precedent for the North Korean regime to send food produced by establishing an agricultural base overseas to North Korea . However, there have been similar attempts in the past.

The 'Geumgang Trading Corporation' under Office 39 of the Workers' Party where I worked pushed forward a project in 2007 and 2008 to lease a significant area of land in the Russian Far East , grow soybeans there, and then import them to North Korea . Although this was pushed forward several times under Kim Jong-il's direction , it ultimately failed . At the time, Office 39 of the Workers' Party had a strong will to implement it , but I understand that negotiations between North Korea and Russia did not go well . Also, although it was not an agricultural project , there was a case where the North Korean authorities built a settlement base in Russia for several decades by conducting a logging business. This was a method of dispatching North Korean workers to Russia to secure timber . It has some structural similarities with Russia's recent land provision .

Therefore, if Russia provides vast land to North Korea and allows tens of thousands of North Koreans to live there and farm for a long time, I think this is a very strategic intention on Russia’s part. According to a North Korean source, this cooperation is being promoted through a direct agreement between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un. It could be a strategic attempt by President Putin to motivate North Korea by providing land in return for dragging North Korea into war . If this agricultural cooperation between North Korea and Russia is successful , I believe it will be an important opportunity for the two countries to strengthen their strategic alliance beyond military cooperation.

“ Russian settlements could be like modern-day concentration camps ”

[ Reporter ] However, it may not be a simple matter for North Koreans to live in Russia for a long time and engage in agriculture . After all , tens or hundreds of thousands of discharged soldiers are leaving North Korea and establishing a new life in Russia , which means that they are more likely to access information from the outside world . Will the North Korean authorities be able to properly control and manage their thoughts ?

[ Lee Jeong-ho ] The North Korean authorities have established a system to thoroughly monitor and control the daily lives of workers dispatched overseas . Therefore, if a large-scale settlement is formed in Russia , it is expected that the area will be set up as a border-like boundary line and strong physical control will be imposed to prevent the North Korean residents there from freely moving around with the outside world . This method can also be confirmed in the case of the North Korean logging workers' settlement base in Siberia in the past .

In addition, the North Korean authorities will create party and administrative organizations within the settlements. They will establish the “ Russian Settlement Workers’ Party Committee ” and “ People’s Committee ” and operate them under the direct control of the North Korean regime . The Ministry of State Security and the Ministry of Public Safety will also be deployed to monitor and control the labor, daily life , and ideological trends of North Korean residents . In addition, the North Korean authorities will thoroughly block information from the outside world and the Internet in the Russian settlements , and in cooperation with the Russian government, strictly control outsiders’ access to the settlements . They will also provide North Korean newspapers and broadcasts , and operate school education in the North Korean style .

This will make the working conditions in the settlements in Russia similar to state-run collective farms, essentially modern-day gulags . If North Korean authorities apply the same internal control system there, serious human rights violations are bound to occur . Surveillance and control of those attempting to escape will be further strengthened , and punishments will be extremely strict . It is highly likely that Russian authorities will accept North Korea’s request . Ultimately , this is an issue that the international community must pay attention to, as it is systematic human rights exploitation of North Korean residents on Russian soil .

North Korean loggers cut down trees at a logging site in the Russian Far East. / AP

[ Reporter ] Lastly, even though US President Donald Trump mentioned the possibility of US-North Korea talks , General Secretary Kim Jong-un is actually visiting a nuclear facility and showing signs of further strengthening anti-Americanism internally . In this situation, North Korea-Russia cooperation appears to be expanding further . How do you think this trend will unfold in the future ?

[ Lee Jeong-ho ] Even if Kim Jong-un visits a uranium enrichment facility and strengthens anti-American propaganda internally , President Trump and the U.S. government will not bat an eyelid and will not view this as a real threat . President Trump has talked with Kim Jong-un three times and has praised him several times , but the U.S. government essentially views North Korea as a “ rogue state that causes trouble with nuclear weapons . ” Kim Jong-un’s anti-American propaganda and visit to a uranium enrichment facility are nothing more than a political show targeting the North Korean people and the South Korean media . On the other hand , the reason North Korea is strengthening military , diplomatic , and economic cooperation with Russia, which shares its border , is because the interests of the two countries clearly align . North Korea believes that in exchange for providing weapons and troops to Russia, it receives economic and military support , and has secured a strong diplomatic ally . Russia is also in dire need of continued military supplies and troops as the Ukraine War is prolonged . North Korea has already sent 12,000 troops to Russia , and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that he would send an additional 20,000 troops in the future . This shows that the North Korea-Russia relationship is likely to lead to a long-term strategic partnership .

However, President Trump is a skilled negotiator and a man of clear calculation. If Kim Jong-un continues to deceive Trump and take a confrontational stance , the United States will likely cooperate with the international community, including China, which is distancing itself from North Korea, to apply strong military and economic pressure on North Korea . Considering the past cases where President Trump called Kim Jong-un “ Rocket Man ” and threatened to “ completely eliminate North Korea, ” if North Korea continues to show a deceptive attitude , he will pressure North Korea with even stronger measures . In the end , I think Kim Jong-un’s belligerent attitude is nothing more than a paper tiger trapped in Trump’s strategic calculations .

Accordingly, rather than rejecting dialogue with the United States outright, Kim Jong-un will likely use it strategically . He knows full well that President Trump’s term is only four years , and he will try to use this to increase his political value . In addition, North Korea is likely to maintain its relationship with Russia as a strategic partnership in the long term by obtaining some sanctions relief through US-North Korea dialogue .

[ Reporter ] Yes . So far, we have been looking into the ' North Korea-Russia agreement, in which Russia provides North Korea with land and allows farming in return for sending troops,' with Lee Jung - ho, head of the Korea Prosperity Development Center and former high-ranking official of Room 39 of the North Korean Workers ' Party . Thank you for your words today , Lee Jung-ho .

This is Jeongmin Noh of RFA Radio Free Asia .

Editor Park Bong-hyeon, Web Editor Kim Sang-il

17. North Korea could send up to 25,000 additional troops to Russia: Zelenskyy

North Korea could send up to 25,000 additional troops to Russia: Zelenskyy

South Korea said in January the North was accelerating preparations to send more troops to Russia amid casualties.

https://www.rfa.org/english/korea/2025/02/04/north-korea-more-troops-russia/

By Taejun Kang for RFA

2025.02.03

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy speaks during the 55th annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Jan. 21, 2025. (Yves Herman/Reuters)

TAIPEI, Taiwan – North Korea could send an additional 20,000 to 25,000 troops to Russia, said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, amid reports that North Koreans had been taken off the front lines in a contested Russian region after suffering heavy casualties.

About 4,000 of the up to 12,000 North Korean troops dispatched to Russia’s Kursk region late last year to help it in its war against Ukraine have been killed or wounded, according to Ukraine.

“While Russia may attempt to deploy an additional 20,000 to 25,000 North Korean soldiers, they have not yet arrived at Kursk,” said Zelenskyy, citing “information from various sources.”

In January, South Korea’s military said North Korea was accelerating preparations to send more troops to Russia amid an increasing number of casualties, while Ukraine believed the North’s additional support would mainly include missile and artillery troops.

Neither Russia nor North Korea has even acknowledged that North Korean troops are helping Russia in its war and information about them can not be verified but Ukrainian, U.S. and South Korean officials have reported that the North Koreans have been suffering heavy casualties battling Ukrainian forces who occupied Kursk last August.

Zelenskyy said North Korean commanders treated their troops as expendable “packages,” at times executing them to prevent them from retreating. He added that the North Koreans were “learning from this war” as they took part in “serious ground operations” and would take this new knowledge home.

“They are truly training under combat conditions. They are learning everything – how to work with drones, how to counter drones, how to hide from drone swarms, how to ensure drone destruction and how to use their own drones,” he said, warning that such transfer of knowledge would be dangerous for the United States and Indo-Pacific region.

Zelenskyy also added that the North Koreans had suffered heavy losses and had not participated in recent assaults on Ukrainian forces in Kursk. Uriane said earlier that the North’s troops were withdrawing from front lines for “retraining.”

South Korea’s main security agency said on Tuesday that North Korean troops in Kursk had not shown any sign of participating in combat since January, citing the large number of casualties as a possible reason.

Last week, a spokesperson of Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces also confirmed that North Korean troops had not been seen in Kursk for about three weeks.

Separately, unidentified Ukrainian and U.S. officials told The New York Times that North Korean troops had been taken off the front lines after suffering heavy casualties.

North Korean female teachers earn wages by carrying water during winter break

https://www.rfa.org/korean/in_focus/food_international_org/north-korea-teacher-earn-money-water-winter-vacation-02032025084918.html

Seoul-Son Hye-min xallsl@rfa.org

2025.02.03

A North Korean woman passes a Buddhist temple carrying a water jug.

/AFP

00:00 /02:37

Anchor : In North Korea's provincial cities, some female elementary, middle, and high school teachers are going around to private apartments to fetch water and buy food in return for wages . This is reporter Son Hye-min reporting from inside North Korea .

A source in South Pyongan Province ( requesting anonymity for personal safety reasons ) told Radio Free Asia on the 2nd , “During the last Lunar New Year, two female teachers brought water to a private residence in the Okjeon-dong apartment where I live ( in Pyongseong ) and took money from them . ”

The source added, “The wage for drawing water is 300 won per bucket (10 liters ) of water for drawing water from the pump installed under the apartment and pouring it into the water tank installed in the kitchen of the living quarters. ” He added , “ The price doubles (600 won ) for the fourth floor and above . ”

He continued, “To fill the water tanks installed in each apartment building, you have to hold buckets of water in both hands and go up and down the stairs ten times ( it takes 20 buckets to fill one water tank ). ” He added, “ If you fill the water tanks for two houses like this (three floors or lower ) , you get paid about 12,000 won ( US $ 0.60 ) . ”

The source also explained , “Female teachers started earning money by drawing water from apartments starting from Seollal ( New Year’s Day ) ,” and “they started earning food during winter vacation . ”

In North Korea, the business of carrying spring water and selling it as a health drink to wealthy households in the summer began in the late 2010s by male factory workers, and it is known that the business of women carrying water to private homes at the request of other housewives began to appear in some cities a few years ago .

However , this is the first time that a female teacher has been known to earn money by drawing water .

A woman carries water with a bucket at a model farm in North Korea. /AFP

Teacher- preferential stores and distribution centers re-emerge in some parts of South Pyongan Province

Yanggang Province authorities withhold party and alliance dues from teachers' salaries

In relation to this, another source from North Pyongan Province ( requesting anonymity for personal safety reasons ) also said on the 4th, “Whether it’s a single-story building or an apartment, the water supply is all broken, so housewives have to get water for cleaning and cooking from pump taps or wells . ”

“Women who make a lot of money at the market and the wives of executives look for people to bring them water once every two days, and they are more likely to come from apartments than single-story houses,” the source said .

“Therefore, women who want to earn money by carrying water come to the apartments in the city, and during winter vacation, female teachers who have a hard time making a living come, so the people living in the apartments choose female teachers over regular women,” he added .

He continued, “The reason why female teachers are chosen as hired water carriers is because it takes time for the water carrier to come into the house and fill the kitchen water tank, so the homeowner entrusts the house key to her, but it is thought that female teachers will not touch anything in the house . ”

The source explained, "In the apartment complex in Yeokjeon-dong where I live, three female teachers from elementary and middle schools earn money by drawing water. They draw water for three houses each every two days and receive money for it," adding, " This is because each house uses up all the water in the water tank ( about 200 liters ) in two days . "

The source continued, “Some residents who watch female teachers, who are symbolized as professional revolutionaries, fetch water and receive wages react with pity for the teachers in this country.”

This is Son Hye-min of RFA's Free Asia Broadcasting in Seoul .

Editor Yang Seong-won, Web Editor Kim Sang-il

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

Access NSS HERE

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[Room 39, Lee Jeong-ho's Eyes] "Russia Promises to Provide Farmland to North Korea in Return for Troop Deployment"

North Korea could send up to 25,000 additional troops to Russia: Zelenskyy

South Korea said in January the North was accelerating preparations to send more troops to Russia amid casualties.

North Korean female teachers earn wages by carrying water during winter break