Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

"There is nothing new in the story. It is as old as the Sibylline books. It falls into that long, dismal catalogue of the fruitlessness of experience and the confirmed unteachability of mankind. Want of foresight, unwillingness to act when action would be simple and effective, lack of clear thinking, confusion of counsel until the emergency comes, until self-preservation strikes its jarring gong—these are the features which constitute the endless repetition of history."
- Winston Churchill

“Bad men need nothing more to compass their ends, than that good men should look on and do nothing.”
- John Stuart Mill, Inaugural Address Delivered to the University of St Andrews, 2/1/1867

“The job facing American voters… in the days and years to come is to determine which hearts, minds and souls command those qualities best suited to unify a country rather than further divide it, to heal the wounds of a nation as opposed to aggravate its injuries, and to secure for the next generation a legacy of choices based on informed awareness rather than one of reactions based on unknowing fear.”
- Aberjhani, Illuminated Corners: Collected Essays and Articles Volume I.


1. N. Korea unwilling to give up nuclear weapons, U.S. should consider other options: Bolton
2. US: Former NSA John Bolton asserts North Korea unlikely to give up nuclear weapons
3. North Korea arrests teacher and students for ‘capitalist’ dance moves
4. Top presidential candidates tackle Thaad, North Korea in first debate
5. Beijing Olympics: Depiction of hanbok-clad woman as 'minority in China' angers Koreans
6. US, 8 other countries urge UNSC to condemn North Korean missile test
7. China might supply Iranian crude oil to N.Korea: CRS
8. Diplomacy with North Korea: A Status Report
9. One American Hacker Suddenly Took Down North Korea’s Internet—All Of It
10. North Korea: How the pandemic has helped Kim Jong-Un tighten control of an unvaccinated and starving nation
11. <Interview with North Korean Residents> "Missile launches are pressure on the U.S. More should be done," People Say.
12. Kim Jong-un’s Weight Loss Noted in New North Korean Propaganda Video
13. Opinion | North Korea’s rogue behavior won’t end on its own
14. Kim returns with threats; & What is to be done?



1. N. Korea unwilling to give up nuclear weapons, U.S. should consider other options: Bolton

A fascinating talk and Q&A with Ambassador Bolton. he covers a lot of ground, history of failed negotiations, inside views of the Trump administration on Korea, strong words and recommendations on China, unification (like me he is a proponent of it) and preventative military action. He gives a surprising answer to my question on conducting a pre-emptive military strike. 

In addition to the entire video, I recommend listening to his response to Tong Kim on military options at 48:48 and then my questions immediately following. He provides some very interesting comments about the conventional threat from the north as well as the nuclear threat.

The one hour video can be viewed here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLFQy8RU37g

N. Korea unwilling to give up nuclear weapons, U.S. should consider other options: Bolton | Yonhap News Agency
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · February 5, 2022
By Byun Duk-kun
WASHINGTON, Feb. 4 (Yonhap) -- The United States and its allies have been unable to convince North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons largely because Pyongyang has never made a decision to do so, former U.S. National Security Advisor John Bolton said Friday.
He also insisted the U.S. should have considered other options such as a regime change.
"There was never once convincing evidence that North Korea had made a strategic decision to give up nuclear weapons," the former White House official said in a webinar hosted by the Institute for Corean-American Studies think tank.
Bolton was considered to have played a key role in setting up the two historic U.S.-North Korea summits between former President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, held in Singapore in June 2018 and in Hanoi in February 2019, as Trump's top national security adviser.

In their Singapore summit, Kim agreed to completely denuclearize his country in exchange for new, normal relations with the U.S.
North Korea, however, has stayed away from denuclearization negotiations with the U.S. since the second U.S.-North Korea summit in Hanoi ended without a deal.
Bolton noted the North has frequently committed to give up nuclear weapons but never followed through.
"They're certainly prepared to negotiate for the relief from economic sanctions or to get tangible economic benefits. But when it comes to following through on their commitment to give up their nuclear weapons program, somehow it just never happens," he said.
"And that's because they don't want to, and that's something we should recognize because that colors every other possible option available to us," he added.
Bolton suggested other possible options could have, if not should have, been the use of force or even a change of regime in North Korea.
"One other thing I'd like to say is for all those people who for years have said it's not acceptable for North Korea have nuclear weapons but weren't willing to take other steps, weren't willing to consider the use of force, weren't willing to consider regime change, are you going to be held to account when North Korea has deliverable nuclear weapons that can hit any target they want in the United States," said Bolton.
He also accused China of not doing all it can to change North Korea's behavior, adding U.S. efforts to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula should focus on making China do so.
"I think at least one thing we can do, if you could get agreement within the United States, is to make China the center of focus," said Bolton. "Without China's support, without its shipment of oil and other fuels to North Korea, without its economic lifeline, the (North Korean) regime would fall very, very quickly."
bdk@yna.co.kr
(END)
en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · February 5, 2022



2. US: Former NSA John Bolton asserts North Korea unlikely to give up nuclear weapons

More reporting on Ambassador Bolton's remarks at ICAS yesterday.

Excerpt:

The former US National Security Advisor suggested other possible options that could lead to denuclearization. He said the use of force could be one option. "One other thing I'd like to say is for all those people who for years have said it's not acceptable for North Korea to have nuclear weapons but weren't willing to take other steps, weren't willing to consider the use of force, weren't willing to consider regime change, are you going to be held to account when North Korea has deliverable nuclear weapons that can hit any target they want in the United States," said Bolton.
US: Former NSA John Bolton asserts North Korea unlikely to give up nuclear weapons


Last Updated: 5th February, 2022 15:35 IST
US: Former NSA John Bolton Asserts North Korea Unlikely To Give Up Nuclear Weapons
North Korea: US NSA John Bolton stated that America and its allies have not been able to convince the North Korean government to give up its nuclear weapon.
Written By

Image: AP


US National Security Advisor John Bolton on Saturday asserted that America and its allies have not been able to convince the North Korean administration to surrender their nuclear armaments. He further mentioned that the US should have considered other options including a regime change to stop North Korea. In a webinar hosted by the Institute for Korean-American Studies think tank, the former White House official said, "There was never once convincing evidence that North Korea had made a strategic decision to give up nuclear weapons," Yonhap News Agency reported.
During his time as the national security adviser to the former US President Donald Trump, John Bolton played a vital role in setting up US-North Korea summits between the former President Donald Trump and North Korean supreme leader Kim Jong-un, held in Singapore in June 2018 and in Hanoi in February 2019. Earlier, at the Singapore summit, Kim had agreed with the US and promised to completely denuclearize his country in exchange for normal relations with America. However, North Korea has stayed away from denuclearization negotiations with the US after the summit in Hanoi ended without a deal. Bolton highlighted that the North has always committed to giving up nuclear weapons, but never kept the words.
North Korea unwilling to give up nuclear weapons says former US NSA
Bolton further added "They're certainly prepared to negotiate for relief from economic sanctions or to get tangible economic benefits. But when it comes to following through on their commitment to giving up their nuclear weapons program, somehow it just never happens, and that's because they don't want to, and that's something we should recognize because that colours every other possible option available to us."
The former US National Security Advisor suggested other possible options that could lead to denuclearization. He said the use of force could be one option. "One other thing I'd like to say is for all those people who for years have said it's not acceptable for North Korea to have nuclear weapons but weren't willing to take other steps, weren't willing to consider the use of force, weren't willing to consider regime change, are you going to be held to account when North Korea has deliverable nuclear weapons that can hit any target they want in the United States," said Bolton.
The former NSA also criticised the Chinese government for not taking any initiative to change North Korea's behaviour and mentioned that the US should pressurise Beijing to make efforts to denuclearize the Korean Peninsula. "I think at least one thing we can do if you could get agreement within the United States, is to make China the centre of focus," Bolton said. Without China's support, without its shipment of oil and other fuels to North Korea, without its economic lifeline, the (North Korean) regime would fall very, very quickly, he further mentioned.
Image: AP








3. North Korea arrests teacher and students for ‘capitalist’ dance moves

Foreign information is an existential threat to the Kim family regime.  
North Korea arrests teacher and students for ‘capitalist’ dance moves
The government has been cracking down on the use of foreign media.
By Hyemin Son
2022.02.04
Authorities in North Korea arrested a dance instructor and several of her students after she used foreign media to teach them “capitalist” dance moves, sources in the country told RFA.
In late 2020, North Korea passed the draconian Elimination of Reactionary Thought and Culture Act, which punishes citizens for a wide variety of offenses, mostly related to watching, keeping or distributing media from capitalist countries, particularly from South Korea and the U.S. The law carries a maximum penalty of death for serious offenders.
The law has also been used to punish drivers for tinting their car windows, students for using South Korean-style speech and slang, and now, dance instructors, for teaching youth to emulate the moves of foreign pop stars.
“The Anti-Socialism Inspection Group caught a dance instructor in her 30s who was teaching foreign-style disco dances to teenage students in Yangji-dong, Pyongsong City,” a resident of the northwestern city of Pyongsong, who requested anonymity for security reasons, told RFA’s Korean Service Jan. 31.
“The Anti-Socialism Inspection Group, a joint operation of the State Security Department and the police, has been intensively cracking down on people for watching South Korean movies and distributing foreign media,” the resident said.
The source said that North Korea authorities tend to be a bit more lenient in enforcing the rules around Seollal, the Lunar New Year holiday that was celebrated Tuesday, the source said. Consequently, residents feel a bit freer to enjoy South Korean movies or listen to foreign songs during this time.
This year, however, the Anti-Socialism Inspection group has been more vigilant in enforcing the thought and culture law, she said.
“At the scene of the crackdown on the dance instructor that day, a USB flash drive containing foreign songs and dance videos had been plugged in, next to the flat screen TV,” the source said.
“Teenage students were learning how to dance by imitating the choreography on screen. The Anti-Socialism Inspection Group seized the flash drive and took the instructor and all of the students to their headquarters,” she said.
News of the arrests quickly traveled beyond the city and the province. A resident of Sinuiju, about 130 miles to the northwest, near the border with China, told RFA that someone told him the story two days before Seollal.
“From what I heard over the phone, this woman had majored in choreography at the Pyongsong University of the Arts. A few years back, she was assigned to teach at Okchon high school in Pyongsong,” said the second source, who requested anonymity to speak freely.
“But it was difficult to live on just the monthly teacher’s salary of only 3,000 won [U.S. $0.60], so she made her actual living by running a private dance academy out of her home,” he said.
Students in middle and high school would attend private lessons twice per week, for one or two-hour sessions at a cost of about $10 per hour, according to the second source.
“They preferred to learn to dance like they do in South Korea, China and America, rather than in the North Korean style. So, she taught them how,” he said.
Another resident of Pyongsong told RFA that the Anti-Socialism Inspection Group began to be more active in December.
“The granddaughter of a provincial party official was caught with an SD card installed on her smartphone, and it contained South Korean movies. In the investigation, she revealed how and where she bought the SD card,” the third source said on condition of anonymity.
“The rich class usually buy USB flash drives smuggled in by sea from China. In the end, those who have been illegally selling or lending these flash drives and SD cards to teenagers get caught, one after another, including a relative of an official at the prosecutors’ office,” she said.
The relative later confessed who he had sold the movies and dance videos to, which led the authorities to the dance instructor, the source said.
“Members of the Anti-Socialism Inspection Group hid in plain clothes around the dance instructor’s house for two days. … They saw many students go in and then they raided the house,” the third source said.
Most of the students are children from wealthy families that typically are not subjected to severe punishment for infractions because of their money and power, according to the third source.
“However, since the Central Committee has ordered that those who violate the Elimination of Reactionary Thought and Culture Act be severely punished regardless of their rank or class, the foreign dance instructor and students caught this time will not be spared from hard labor. Their parents are also likely to be punished by being forced to leave the party,” the source said.
Translated by Claire Lee and Leejin Jun. Written in English by Eugene Whong.

4. Top presidential candidates tackle Thaad, North Korea in first debate

It is unfortunate that THAAD might be an election issue. I think it is because of the misunderstanding, or lack of understanding, of THAAD among the candidates just as among the Korean population. A lot of misinformation has been peddled by political opponents, the Chinese, and Koreans with anti-American sentiment.  Being careful not to appear to be taking sides or trying to influence the election perhaps this does provide an opportunity for USFK to reset the debate about THAAD and provide information to the public on what THAAD is, what it does, and what it does for all Korean people in the South. And with the shootdown of the Houthi missile in the Middle East by a THAAD system we can show its actual capability to defend territory and people from attack. Let's conduct the THAAD information preparation of the environment we wish we did in 2016-2017.


Friday
February 4, 2022

Top presidential candidates tackle Thaad, North Korea in first debate

From left, Sim Sang-jeung of the Justice Party, Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party, Yoon Suk-yeol of the People Power Party and Ahn Cheol-soo of the People's Party bump fists ahead of their first televised debate Thursday evening at the KBS hall in Yeouido, western Seoul. [JOINT PRESS CORPS]
The four major presidential candidates locked horns over foreign affairs, real estate policy and other economic and societal issues in their first televised debate Thursday evening, but generally refrained from excessive muckraking.
 
Lee Jae-myung of the ruling Democratic Party (DP), Yoon Suk-yeol of the main opposition People Power Party (PPP), Ahn Cheol-soo of the minor opposition People's Party and Sim Sang-jeung of the progressive Justice Party took part in the two-hour debate at a KBS studio with just over a month left until presidential election.
 
The candidates especially clashed over foreign affairs and security issues, namely in regard to the additional deployment of an antimissile system and how to deal with North Korea and tackle Sino-U.S. tensions. 
 
Yoon recently pledged additional deployment of the U.S.-led Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) antimissile system.
 
Lee said that Thaad doesn't help with the defense of the Seoul metropolitan area and asked Yoon, "Why are you trying to bring on backlash from China and ruin the economy?"
 
Yoon replied, "When security is strong, stock prices are steady, and national risk is reduced."
 
When Sim asked Yoon about his remarks supporting a pre-emptive attack on North Korea last month, which raised controversy, the PPP candidate said, "We are not trying to wage war, but deter it," saying that a Kill Chain strike system helps to "preserve peace."
 
Yoon said that if he is elected president, he will first meet with the leaders of the United States, Japan, China and North Korea.
 
He said that the liberal government has practiced diplomacy friendly to China and North Korea, and said that he plans to "prioritize restoring relations with the United States and Japan."
 
Lee in turn said, "Practical diplomacy centered on national interest is important. There is no need to decide whether the United States, China or North Korea comes first. It is important to negotiate and meet the most effective partner at the most useful and effective time."
 
Ahn said he prioritizes the South Korea-U.S. alliance and will meet with the U.S. president, followed by the leaders of China, North Korea and Japan.
 
Sim stressed the importance of reviving talks between Pyongyang and Washington, and said as president, she will first meet with the North Korean leader and then the U.S. president.
 
Yoon, a former prosecutor general, came down on Lee over the Daejang-dong land development controversy dating back to the DP candidate's time as mayor of Seongnam in Gyeonggi. He noted that Kim Man-bae, the owner of asset management company Hwacheon Daeyu at the center of the corruption scandal, said that the land development project's design was in accordance to the mayor's instruction, and questioned whether it was designed with costs and profits in mind.
 
Lee fended off the attacks and stressed, "I never made any profits." He called to refer to a parliamentary audit which he said cleared any questions.
 
Addressing the current administration's real estate policy issues, Lee and Ahn proposed political consensus to expand housing supplies, while Yoon called to ease loan regulations and Sim called to lower housing prices.
 
Lee also distanced himself from the current Moon Jae-in administration when asked by Ahn if he was the "successor" to the current administration. Instead, he replied, "I want to create a new Lee Jae-myung government."
 
In a rare sign of unity, all four candidates agreed on a national pension reform in accordance to a proposal made by Ahn.
 
They also discussed their views on a supplementary government budget for Covid-19 relief, energy policy and carbon neutrality.
 
Contrary to expectation, controversies related to the wives of Lee and Yoon were not brought up during the debate. Former Gyeonggi Gov. Lee's wife, Kim Hye-kyung, has recently been embroiled in controversy over allegations that civil servants ran personal errands for her. Yoon's wife, Kim Keon-hee, has also faced backlash about her falsified job resume and alleged involvement in shamanism. Recordings of phone calls between Kim and a liberal journalist disclosed last month suggested she may have tried to meddle in her husband's election campaign. She also suggested that DP politicians do not pay off sexual assault victims enough, apparently downplaying the "Me Too" movement.
 
When pressed by Sim, Yoon apologized to a sexual assault victim who helped set in motion Korea's "Me Too" movement for his wife's remarks. 
  
The debate was aired simultaneously from 8 p.m. by the three terrestrial broadcasters KBS, MBC and SBS and received a cumulative viewership rating of 39 percent, the second highest for a presidential debate to date. The record is a viewership of 55.7 percent in the 1997 election which eventually resulted in the victory of President Kim Dae-jung.
 
Lee and Yoon tried to schedule a one-on-one debate over the Lunar New Year holiday, but were unable to come to a settlement. Instead, Lee held a two-way debate on YouTube with minor presidential candidate, former Finance Minister Kim Dong-yeon.
 
The four major presidential candidates are scheduled to hold three more televised debates leading up to the March 9 election. They will focus on economics on Feb. 21, politics on Feb. 25 and social issues on March 2.

BY SARAH KIM [kim.sarah@joongang.co.kr]


5. Beijing Olympics: Depiction of hanbok-clad woman as 'minority in China' angers Koreans

A failure of the three warfares? Or is it? Did the Chinese co-opt Minister Hwang? I am unsure of his comments (or the translation of them) below. Will this create understanding or misunderstand?

Excerpt:

In a bit of irony, South Korean Culture Minister Hwang Hee was in attendance while dressed in a hanbok.

In an interview with the South Korean press Saturday morning at the Main Media Centre in Beijing, Hwang said the depiction of ethnic Koreans as a minority group could create "understanding" in the two countries' bilateral ties.

"When you refer to people as a minority, it often means they haven't evolved into a sovereign country," Hwang said. "We are among the 10 or so largest economies in the world located right next to China. This could cause some misunderstanding in otherwise good bilateral relations."


Beijing Olympics: Depiction of hanbok-clad woman as 'minority in China' angers Koreans
The Korea Times · by 2022-02-05 22:32 | Beijing Olympics · February 5, 2022
Chinese performers representing ethnic groups in China carry the Chinese national flag during the opening ceremony for the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics at the National Stadium in Beijing, Feb. 4. YonhapSouth Koreans have taken umbrage at what they believe is China's claim to the traditional Korean hanbok attire during the opening ceremony of the Beijing Winter Olympics on Friday.

In the early part of the ceremony, people representing 56 ethnic groups across China carried the Chinese national flag into the stadium. One woman was dressed in a hanbok, apparently representing ethnic Koreans in China.

The depiction of a hanbok-clad woman as a minority group in China angered many South Koreans, who argued that China was trying to promote hanbok as its own.
A Chinese performer dressed in the traditional Korean attire of hanbok waves during the opening ceremony for the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics at the National Stadium in Beijing, Feb. 4. Yonhap

In a bit of irony, South Korean Culture Minister Hwang Hee was in attendance while dressed in a hanbok.

In an interview with the South Korean press Saturday morning at the Main Media Centre in Beijing, Hwang said the depiction of ethnic Koreans as a minority group could create "understanding" in the two countries' bilateral ties.

"When you refer to people as a minority, it often means they haven't evolved into a sovereign country," Hwang said. "We are among the 10 or so largest economies in the world located right next to China. This could cause some misunderstanding in otherwise good bilateral relations."

Lee Jae-myung, the presidential candidate for the ruling Democratic Party of Korea, wrote on Facebook that he was opposed to China's "cultural appropriation."
The main opposition People Power Party (PPP) fired shots at China for trying to steal anything Korean, and criticized the South Korean government for not putting up any fight against China's prior attempts to adopt Korean cultural elements as part of its own identity.

Seo Kyoung-duk, a professor at Sungshin Women's University and an activist promoting South Korean culture, said South Korea should do a better job letting the rest of the world know that hanbok is traditional Korean attire. He said China has already made too many claims to hanbok as its own to count.

"We have to stand up to China's cultural appropriation and point out exactly what the problems are," Seo wrote on social media. "We have to protect our own history and culture." (Yonhap)


The Korea Times · by 2022-02-05 22:32 | Beijing Olympics · February 5, 2022


6.  US, 8 other countries urge UNSC to condemn North Korean missile test

In addition to China and Russia these counties also did not condemn the test:

Ghana
Gabon
Kenya
Mexico
US, 8 other countries urge UNSC to condemn North Korean missile test
The Korea Times · February 5, 2022
People watch a TV at Seoul Railway Station showing images of North Korea's missile launch during a news program, Jan. 31. AP-Yonhap 

The United States and eight other countries called on the U.N. Security Council (UNSC), Friday, to condemn North Korea's recent missile tests after the council's closed meeting apparently failed to take any concrete action against Pyongyang.

Friday's meeting marked the second attempt by the U.S. and other like-minded countries in just about two weeks to hold North Korea to account for its recent series of missile launches.

North Korea staged its seventh and last round of missile launches of the year last Sunday (KST).

"The DPRK's January 30 (local time) launch of an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) is a significant escalation in the DPRK's recent violations of multiple Security Council resolutions and seeks to further destabilize the region. We condemn this unlawful action in the strongest terms," U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfield said in a joint statement.

DPRK is the acronym for North Korea's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

The statement was signed by the U.N. representatives from eight other UNSC member countries ― Albania, Brazil, Britain, France, Ireland, Japan, Norway and the United Arab Emirates.

They noted the IRBM marked the longest-range test conducted by North Korea since late 2017, also adding Pyongyang has so far fired nine ballistic missiles in its seven rounds of missile tests this year.

"The nine ballistic missiles launched in January is the largest number of launches the DPRK has conducted in a single month in the history of its WMD and ballistic missile programs," they said in their joint statement.

"We call on all Council members to speak with one voice in condemning these dangerous and unlawful acts," they added.

North Korea has maintained a self-imposed moratorium on nuclear and long-range missile testing since November 2017 when it last test fired an intercontinental ballistic missile, following its sixth and last nuclear test in September that year.

The U.N. representatives said the cost of silence will be too high.

"It will embolden the DPRK to further defy the international community; to normalize its violations of Security Council resolutions; to further destabilize the region; and to continue to threaten international peace and security. This is an outcome that we should not accept."

The diplomats also urged North Korea to cease its destabilizing activities and return to dialogue.

"We remain committed to seeking serious and sustained diplomacy. The DPRK must make this same commitment in order to ease regional tensions and to ensure international peace and security," they said.

Prior to Friday's UNSC meeting, China's representative to the U.N. was quoted as saying that the U.S. needs to do more and be more flexible to resume dialogue with North Korea.

Thomas-Greenfield, when asked later to comment on her Chinese counterpart's comments, said the U.S. has already and repeatedly made clear that it will meet with the North Koreans without any preconditions.

She also said a meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un could be possible "if the conditions are there."

"But we, right now, are in a situation where we've not been able to bring them to the diplomatic table for any discussions whatsoever," she said, according to her office. (Yonhap)
The Korea Times · February 5, 2022

7. China might supply Iranian crude oil to N.Korea: CRS
China is complicit in sanctions evasion. From the CRS report at this link:https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RS/RS20871

P. 46 North Korea, like Iran, has been subject to significant international sanctions, and North Korea has not pledged to abide by international sanctions against Iran. The two countries reportedly share information on a wide range of strategic ventures, particularly the development of ballistic missiles. A portion of the oil that China buys from Iran (and from other suppliers) might be transshipped to North Korea, but it is not known if North Korea buys any Iranian oil directly.80
China might supply Iranian crude oil to N.Korea: CRS
koreaherald.com · by Ji Da-gyum · February 4, 2022
Published : Feb 4, 2022 - 17:31 Updated : Feb 4, 2022 - 17:32
(123rf)
North Korea might be indirectly supplied with Iranian crude oil through China, the US Congressional Research Service said in a recently published report, without further details.

The report identified that North Korea “has not pledged to abide by international sanctions against Iran,” adding Pyongyang has similarly been “subject to significant international sanctions.”

The CRS notably pointed to potential illicit connections between Tehran and Pyongyang in the “Iran Sanctions” report updated Wednesday, although it did not substantiate its claim.

“A portion of the oil that China buys from Iran (and from other suppliers) might be transshipped to North Korea, but it is not known if North Korea buys any Iranian oil directly.”

Washington has banned other countries from importing Iranian crude oil to choke off Tehran’s oil revenues, which had previously propped up the Iranian economy.

US sanctions on Iran went back into effect in 2018, after then-US President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The Trump administration also stopped renewing sanctions exemptions for major importers of Iranian oil as of May 2019.

The CRS also said that Teheran and Pyongyang “reportedly share information on a wide range of strategic ventures, particularly the development of ballistic missiles.”

The finding is in line with the previous report of the 1718 UN Panel of Experts. The PoE said Iran and North Korea “have resumed cooperation on long-range missile development projects” in its final report submitted last March.

According to the PoE report, the bilateral ballistic missile cooperation included the “transfer of critical parts” from Pyongyang to Tehran and North Korean missile specialists’ support and assistance for Shahid Haj Ali Movahed Research Center, which is a subsidiary of Iran’s Shahid Hemmat Industrial Group (SHIG).

In September 2020, The US Treasury Department also revealed that Shahid Haj Ali Movahed Research Center has “played a key role in Iranian-North Korean missile cooperation,” designating two senior Iranian officials at SHIG for negotiating and illicitly coordinating on missile development with Pyongyang.

By Ji Da-gyum (dagyumji@heraldcorp.com)



8. Diplomacy with North Korea: A Status Report

The Congressional Research Service provides a useful overview and update.

The 3 page report can be downloaded here:  https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11415

Overview 

Since the early 1990s, the United States periodically has engaged in diplomacy with theDemocratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK, North Korea’s official name). A focus of these efforts has been the DPRK’s nuclear and missile programs, which have emerged as threats to the U.S. homeland and U.S. East Asian allies, particularly South Korea and Japan.Over the decades, the United States and North Korea also have discussed normalizing relations, officially ending the Korean War after nearly 70 years, and improving human rights conditions in North Korea. Since 2019, following the collapse of personal diplomacy between former President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, Pyongyang largely has ignored attempts by the Trump and Biden Administrations to resume dialogue. Kim’s reluctance to engage also may be due to his response to Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID19); North Korea has closed its borders since early 2020.

The Biden Administration says it is pursuing a “calibrated, practical approach” that “is open to and will explore diplomacy with North Korea” to eventually achieve the “complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.”U.N. Security Council and U.S. sanctions bar nearly all of North Korea’s exports and many of its imports, with exceptions for livelihood and humanitarian purposes.The Biden Administration’s approach appears to envision offering partial sanctions relief in exchange for partial steps toward denuclearization.Incremental sanctions relief could be difficult to accomplish without congressional support, given limitations enacted into law. U.S. officials say they have offered to meet with North Korea without preconditions, and that “the ball is in [Pyongyang’s] court.”Some analysts characterize the Administration’s approach as overly passive, offering little substantive content in its public efforts to engage, instead emphasizing coordination with Seoul to prevent U.S.-South Korea disagreements over DPRK policy from surfacing.

In the near term, many analysts worry Kim will abandon his unilateral moratorium on nuclear tests and long-range ballistic missile tests. Pyongyang has resumed short- and medium-range ballistic missile tests—unleashing seven launches in early 2022—continuesto enhance its military capabilities, and conducts cyberattacks around the globe.



9. One American Hacker Suddenly Took Down North Korea’s Internet—All Of It

Think about the potential. If an overweight guy in his pajamas in the basement can do this....

I hope CYBERCOM is reaching out to this guy. The second paragraph excerpted below is a riff on Lenin's "probe with bayonets, if you find mush, push. If you find steel, withdraw."

Excerpts:
Having taken his time, and in essence performed a penetration test against North Korean internet infrastructure systems, he had all he needed to launch the denial-of-service attacks. These targeted vulnerabilities found in servers and routers that had failed to be patched, and which were largely responsible for connecting the outside world to North Korean sites as well as services such as email.
P4x said that it felt like the right thing to do because "if they don’t see we have teeth, it’s just going to keep coming." His hacking back activity may not be over yet, either. The same article suggests P4x may "try actually hacking into North Korean systems," in order to "steal information and share it with experts."

One American Hacker Suddenly Took Down North Korea’s Internet—All Of It
Forbes · by Davey Winder · February 5, 2022
Across the last couple of weeks of January, the Internet in North Korea was observed to be down. The blackout of Kim Jong-un's internet connectivity, although intermittent, was hugely disruptive with reports suggesting an "attack against North Korean servers took the entire country off the internet." The timing of these attacks coincided with the latest bunch of missile tests, the internet blackout just mentioned coming the day after the fifth such test took place. It should come as no surprise, then, that suspicion for the takedown fell upon nation states in the west. In particular, the U.S. Cyber Command was thought to be a primary suspect.
So, who did hack Kim Jong-un's Internet?
But what if it were not a coordinated nation state military response? What if a single hacker, out for revenge, was behind the attacks? Well, guess what, that does indeed seem to be the case. In an interview with Wired magazine an American hacker, identified only as P4x, claims to be person behind the blackouts. Wired has seen the evidence to back up the claims.
According to the Wired article, P4x wanted to send a message to the North Korean government. "I want them to understand that if you come at us, it means some of your infrastructure is going down for a while," he told Wired.
Revenge is a cyberattack best served cold
The event that sparked all of this was not recent, however. Back in January last year, Forbes reported how North Korean hackers had breached both Microsoft Windows and Google Chrome defenses in order to target U.S. security researchers. So, why did P4x wait a year before then suddenly serving up his cold revenge?
Speaking to Wired he reveals that the original hacking campaign that targeted security researchers had been unsuccessful in his case. However, it did leave him feeling "deeply unnerved" not only by being on the receiving end of North Korean state-sponsored hacking attention but also at the "lack of any visible response from the U.S. government."
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Having taken his time, and in essence performed a penetration test against North Korean internet infrastructure systems, he had all he needed to launch the denial-of-service attacks. These targeted vulnerabilities found in servers and routers that had failed to be patched, and which were largely responsible for connecting the outside world to North Korean sites as well as services such as email.
Poking the Hidden Cobra
P4x said that it felt like the right thing to do because "if they don’t see we have teeth, it’s just going to keep coming." His hacking back activity may not be over yet, either. The same article suggests P4x may "try actually hacking into North Korean systems," in order to "steal information and share it with experts."
I spoke with Ian Thornton-Trump, a former Canadian military intelligence operative and the current chief information security officer with threat intelligence firm, Cyjax.
"Online vigilantism or hacktivism is a dangerous game to begin with," he warned, "against a nation state it is foolhardy." Thornton-Trump pointed out that North Korea already has significant cyber capabilities, and lacks moral or ethical constraint, which means retaliation of one form or another could be expected. Referring to the U.S. government security agency 'Hidden Cobra' label for malicious North Korean state-sponsored cyber activity, he concludes: "If you poke Hidden Cobra with a cyber stick, I hope the real cobra does not sink it's fangs deep into you."
Forbes · by Davey Winder · February 5, 2022


10. North Korea: How the pandemic has helped Kim Jong-Un tighten control of an unvaccinated and starving nation


We (Korea watchers) have been emphasizing the north Korean COVID paradox for two years (the regime is deathly afraid of the effects but it is also an opportunity for the regime to further oppress the population). It is good to see people finally paying attention to this.

North Korea: How the pandemic has helped Kim Jong-Un tighten control of an unvaccinated and starving nation
North Koreans are now even more cut off from the rest of the world than they have ever been, with new laws clamping down on ‘capitalist tendencies’ and foreign influence
inews.co.uk · by Taz Ali · February 5, 2022
Three years ago, North Korean premier Kim Jong-Un visited a potato farm in a show of reassurance, demonstrating that perpetual food shortages in the communist country were being addressed. He smiled for pictures while stood in front of a towering pile of potatoes at the facility in Samjiyon, on the North Korea-China border.
The tone was markedly different last April when a plump looking Supreme Leader warned of another “arduous march” – the term used by North Koreans in reference to the devastating famine that killed an estimated 600,000 to one million people in the 1990s.
Experts have told i of how the highly secretive and isolated country has been rocked by food shortages and severe economic hardship made worse by strict lockdowns and the total closure of its borders since January 2020, with no signs of when the measures will end.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un inspecting the potato factory in Samjiyon in late 2018 (Photo: KCNA Via KNS/AFP via Getty Images)
For Mr Kim, the pandemic has only served to further strengthen his grip on power, as the reclusive leader has used public health concerns as an excuse to clamp down on unauthorised markets and the flow of information, particularly foreign media.
Reports of starvation
Warnings of a potential famine could be the regime’s way of “managing expectations”, said Benjamin Silberstein, nonresident fellow with the American think tank the Stimson Centre and co-editor of North Korean Economy Watch. “It’s to really drive home that the situation is difficult.”
But he added: “There are communities and localities in North Korea where people might be starving to death, there are scattered reports and I don’t really want to dismiss them.
“Even though the overall situation might be stable and not at a famine level, the most vulnerable people might be, if not starving, then in difficult situations when it comes to food.”
Food gap in North Korea
North Korea does not produce enough food to be self-sufficient, and extreme weather events such as floods and typhoons wash away a lot of its crops.
About 42 per cent of the population were undernourished between 2018 to 2020, according to the UN.
The country has relied on China and international aid for food imports, as well as for agricultural equipment to be able to produce its own crops such as fertiliser and machinery.
According to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation, North Korea had a “food gap” equivalent to about 2.3 months of food use in 2020.
However, Lina Yoon, senior Korea researcher at the Human Rights Watch, said the figure was based on the assumption that all food production is divided equally to all citizens.
“The reality is that actually the largest amount of food will go into Pyongyang, to the leadership and the army,” she said.
“The food gap has to be much bigger.
“We are concerned the harvest has been much slower (in 2021) because there has been no imports for the past two years, including fertiliser and components for the already outdated machinery that they use to harvest.”
The zero Covid question
North Korea has reported zero Covid cases, creating some doubt in the international community over the accuracy of its health data.
“With the scale of the pandemic, the persistence of Covid and its toll all over the world, that (claim) invites some scepticism,” said Michelle Kae, deputy director of 38 North, a North Korea monitoring programme at the Stimson Centre.
Despite insisting the nation has no Covid cases, Mr Kim warned in June last year that senior officials in charge of state affairs “neglected” to implement important decisions to fight the pandemic.
Workers disinfect a Pyongyang shopping centre to help curb the spread of the coronavirus (Photo: Jon Chol Jin/AP)
He said this caused “a great crisis in ensuring the security of the state and safety of the people, and entailed grave consequences”.
Ms Kae said North Korea’s public health system “is already challenged and fragile”, and that it did not have adequate infrastructure to control an outbreak of Covid.
Instead, the state has imposed harsh measures which have restricted people’s movements inside the country, with rigorous public campaigns to promote social distancing and mask wearing.
Ms Kae said border closures were “the only thing they (North Korea) could do”, adding: “They can’t afford or take care of breakthrough cases, that would be a big burden for their infrastructure.”
An unvaccinated population
The North Korean government faces increased pressure to fully open the borders and allow foreign aid workers in, but the situation has been made more difficult as not one person in the country has been vaccinated against Covid.
Mr Kim has rejected offers for about five million AstraZeneca and Sinovac vaccine doses from Covax, the UN-led global vaccine-sharing programme, as well as from China and Russia.
Some experts believe this could be over concerns about side effects and vaccine efficacy, and that Mr Kim may be holding out for offers of the Pfizer and Moderna jabs. The amount offered would also not cover the population of nearly 26 million.
Mr Silberstein said he believes the vaccine refusal was mostly down to issues with distribution within the country.
“Generally speaking the North Korean government is very worried and nervous having foreigners running around the country.”
Jonathan Corrado, director of policy at the Korea Society, a New York-based non-profit organisation, said initial steps had been taken to accept vaccine doses but were halted when conditions were attached to them.
“You have to give all this information about plans for storage and delivery, there could be some concerns from the North Korean side about not wanting to be that transparent,” Mr Corrado said.
Crackdown on ‘grasshopper’ merchants
To cope with chronic food shortages and economic difficulties, North Koreans have relied on income earned through illegal markets that operate outside the government-sanctioned system.
The state provides permits to vendors who must pay tax and a monthly fee. The government also controls what can be sold where and when, and prohibits items such as products with English lettering or that are made in South Korea.
So-called “grasshopper” merchants – vendors operating illegally and who hop around to avoid detection – have for years coexisted with formal markets and survived through bribes being paid to the authorities.
The illegal markets are largely run by women, and such is there success that they have become the breadwinners of the house.
People wearing face masks walk on the street in Pyongyang, North Korea (Photo: Jon Chol Jin/AP)
Mr Corrado said most men are appointed by the state to work in factories and farms where they earn very little.
“It’s enough to buy a single kilo of rice a month, which is really a pittance, basically a form of slavery,” he added.
In recent years, there has been concerted effort by the state to crack down on so-called “capitalistic tendencies” and to take back control of markets operating outside of its rules.
Mr Corrado said the crackdown on grasshopper merchants is “all about increasing revenue and increasing control of society”.
Ban on foreign culture
The state has sought to broaden its power over people by passing laws to root out foreign culture, especially from South Korea.
In December 2020, North Korea’s Supreme People’s Assembly, its highest legislative body, approved a law on “rejecting the reactionary ideology and culture”, which brought harsh new punishments – including execution for the most severe violations – and banned behaviour such as accents in South Korean style.
Those caught with media from South Korea face up to 15 years in a prison camp.
Mr Silberstein said the campaign to eliminate foreign influence began soon after Mr Kim came to power 10 years ago, to stop people “seeing the difference in lifestyle and how vastly different living conditions are in other countries”.
Citizens pay tribute to the statues of North Korean leaders Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il on New Year’s Day in Pyongyang (Photo: Jon Chol Jin/AP)
“That’s always a threat to the government and especially so when things are so difficult with the economy,” he added.
North Koreans are only permitted to use registered electronic devices that have been programmed with surveillance measures before they’re sold.
Ms Kae said phones “can take screenshots at arbitrary times” that cannot be deleted, adding that officials can stop people on the street and search their phones to see the screenshots.
Mr Silberstein said there are signs that North Koreans “are annoyed with the crackdowns”, referring to a plenary meeting last month, a key political conference that a visibly thinner Mr Kim presided over.
Mr Silberstein said: “It was interesting because it didn’t contain any language on cracking down on capitalist tendencies and keeping foreign culture from infecting the youth.
“That’s been a big part of what the regime has been talking about in other major statements over the past few years, it’s been a very clear priority.
“I think the absence of this language is potentially telling.”
inews.co.uk · by Taz Ali · February 5, 2022


11.  <Interview with North Korean Residents> "Missile launches are pressure on the U.S. More should be done," People Say.


A thoroughly indoctrinated people or excellent propaganda. Or both.

But the opinions expressed in this are very insightful.


<Interview with North Korean Residents> "Missile launches are pressure on the U.S. More should be done," People Say.
(Photo) Kim Jong-un inspects a construction site in Samjiyon during a snowfall. As quoted from Labor News, November 2018.
◆ How the residents perceived the Kim Jong-un regime's missile barrage
The Kim Jong-un regime of North Korea conducted a total of seven missile tests in January, causing a stir in the international community, but how did the residents of North Korea react to this? Our reporting partners in North Korea surveyed the residents' reactions, and surprisingly, there was a series of voices in support of the missile launches. The content of the survey suggested that the impoverished lifestyle of the North Koreans had reached its limit and that an air of desperation was hanging over the society (Kang Ji-won).
――Kim Jong-un regime launched a series of missiles in January. Are the residents aware of this?
"Of course, they are. When the regime fired the first shot, I wondered why they needed to do it when they advertise that they have nuclear weapons, but people are saying that they are trying to make the U.S. lift economic sanctions in the wake of the resumption of trade with China."
――"People think the goal is to make the U.S. lift economic sanctions?"
"Many people believe that the missile launch aimed to get the U.S. to lift the sanctions, although the government says it was done to strengthen national defence. When I spoke to an official from the propaganda department of the Workers' Party in my city and a member of the secret police, they said that 'Although the whole world is in trouble because of coronavirus, we are still under sanctions, so we have to strengthen our position to stop them. China and Russia are on our site, so now is the time to take action."
――How do you think the general public is taking it?
"Everyone is struggling to make ends meet, so even if they open Sinuiju a little, they don't know when things will return to normal. Most people say they can't survive without changing the situation, whether through war or something else."
――Is that what they think?
"It is true that there is a tendency these days to deliberately say that the U.S. and Japanese people are the cause of the disaster since simply expressing dissatisfaction would be caught in a 'verbal backlash.' Although those are ostensible words, the missile launch triggered a mood of, "Yes, if we don't act now, we will starve to death. Therefore, we must act,' and I think that atmosphere has grown stronger all at once."
※On January 17, trade by train resumed for the first time in two years between Sinuiju in North Pyongan Province and Dandong in China.
◆ It is better to start a war whether you believe in it or not.
The following are the voices of three people that our reporting partner interviewed.
●A steel factory worker, male, discharged from the military, age unknown
We have had talks with the U.S., and even though we have nuclear weapons, we continue to be subject to economic sanctions because they still underestimate us. We have to launch missiles or something.
● A merchant selling bicycle parts at a market, female, in her 40s.
I heard that although the coronavirus has not come into North Korea, we cannot get in supplies (from abroad) because of the sanctions. This is an attempt to starve us to death. In this situation, we should not only conduct tests but also launch missiles directly at them. We should try it or lose it.
● A housewife in her 30s. Her husband died at the end of last year due to a lack of medicine.
I used to do illegal things to eat, but now I can't smuggle (because of the strict crackdown), and I can't cross the border into China to steal. So, I can't do anything. I have no money, and I have nothing to sell at home. I wonder if I can live if I go to a rural village. The government says they will provide food, but I don't know when. Anyway, win or lose, let's have a war. It has to be settled.
Even if it leads to war, they cannot bear the deprivation unless they make the situation move... We can feel the emotions of the ordinary people who are trapped. When the COVID-19 pandemic occurred two years ago, the Kim Jong-un regime immediately closed the border with China and strongly restricted trade. For its citizens, the government imposed strong movement controls and restricted business activities. As a result, urban residents who lost their cash income suffered from poverty. In addition to economic sanctions, the regime's extreme measures against corruption have led to the current impoverishment, but it has repeatedly shifted the blame by propagating that "the crushing policies of U.S. imperialism cause the difficulties."
※ASIAPRESS contacts its reporting partners in North Korea through smuggled Chinese mobile phones.



12. Kim Jong-un’s Weight Loss Noted in New North Korean Propaganda Video


Glory be to KimJong-un and weight watchers.


Kim Jong-un’s Weight Loss Noted in New North Korean Propaganda Video
Kim Jong-un's weight loss was noted by many observers in 2021. A North Korean propaganda video this week seemed to mention the leader's physical changes.
The National Interest · by Stephen Silver · February 4, 2022
Throughout the summer of 2021, North Korea observers noticed that Kim Jong-un was looking notably slimmer.
NK News reported in June 2021 that intelligence services were likely monitoring Kim’s health. If the weight loss was due to healthier living, that had the potential to strengthen Kim’s position. If it was due to illness, it likely meant the opposite.
“If [the sudden weight loss] is due to a health condition though, the jockeying for his succession may already be happening behind the scenes, and that volatility could be trouble for the outside world,” Vipin Narang, an associate professor of political science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), told NK News.
In October, ABC News quoted South Korean lawmakers who received an intelligence briefing that assessed Kim had lost about forty-four pounds and that the leader was likely not facing any major health issues. South Korean officials also said that persistent rumors of North Korea using a body double in Kim’s place were untrue. Last June, state media showed a comment by one North Korean describing the nation’s leader as “emaciated.”

Kim’s weight was in the news again this week.
According to The New York Post, North Korean state media recently released a propaganda video called “2021: A Great Victorious Year,” which depicted Kim struggling to walk down a flight of stairs. The video, rather than depicting the leader as weak, stated that he had “completely withered away” from hard work on behalf of his people. The propaganda video also described him as both “fatherly” and “motherly.”
“[Kim] showed us his fatherly side by doggedly braving snow, rain, and wind while taking on the fate of the nation and people like his own children,” the voiceover on the documentary said, as reported by the Post. Other than the “withered away” note, the video did not directly reference the leader’s weight loss.
A public appearance
According to Yonhap News Service, which cited the state-owned Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), Kim and his wife, Ri Sol-ju, made a public appearance this week on Lunar New Years Day. The appearance was Ri’s first in public since last September. The North Korean first lady at one point did not appear in public for an entire year. before resurfacing last February.
"The respected General Secretary warmly congratulated the audience and the artistes on the Lunar New Year’s Day, acknowledging the enthusiastic cheers,” KCNA said of the appearance, according to Yonhap.
Stephen Silver, a technology writer for The National Interest, is a journalist, essayist and film critic, who is also a contributor to The Philadelphia Inquirer, Philly Voice, Philadelphia Weekly, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Living Life Fearless, Backstage magazine, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. Follow him on Twitter at @StephenSilver.
Image: Reuters.
The National Interest · by Stephen Silver · February 4, 2022



13. Opinion | North Korea’s rogue behavior won’t end on its own


It will never end as long as the Kim family regime is in power.

Unfortunately, the recommendations will cause Kim to judge his political warfare strategy success. We are not likely to "draw him out of his shell." 

Conclusion:
The world is facing multiple crises that no doubt require attention and resources. But the United States and the international community cannot afford to neglect North Korea’s provocations. They should find a way to reengage now — because time, unfortunately, is on North Korea’s side.

Opinion | North Korea’s rogue behavior won’t end on its own
The Washington Post · by Andrew Yeo Yesterday at 10:56 a.m. EST · February 4, 2022
Andrew Yeo is the SK-Korea Foundation chair and senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a professor of politics at Catholic University and author of “State, Society, and Markets in North Korea.”
With the United States and NATO tangling with Russia over Ukraine, and China hosting the Winter Olympics in Beijing, North Korea may not be an immediate priority for any of the great powers. But, as the past few weeks have demonstrated, the North Korean nuisance will not take care of itself.
This January, North Korea conducted seven ballistic missile tests, the most recorded in a single month. We have seen these patterns before. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ “Beyond Parallel” database, in a one-month period beginning in late July 2019, North Korea also conducted seven short-range missile tests. In September 2021, North Korea conducted five missile tests.
In this context, it might be tempting to dismiss the recent volley of missile testing as part of a routine cycle of provocations. But that logic only normalizes North Korea’s behavior. Instead, the United States should craft a measured response that brings North Korea to the table and charts a path to a sustainable de-escalation.
To its credit, the Biden administration has made some effort to address the problem. Since this past spring, it has reached out to Pyongyang multiple times, offering to restart talks “anywhere, anytime without preconditions.” Yet North Korea has mostly ignored U.S. overtures for engagement and rejected global offers of covid-19 vaccines. After a six-month lull, short-range missile tests resumed last year on Sept. 11.
Pyongyang has demanded that Washington drop its “hostile policy” toward the regime. What it most likely wants in the short term is sanctions relief to boost its economy, which has taken a dive since the country closed its borders in early 2020 because of the pandemic. Meanwhile, the Biden administration is waiting for North Korea to take credible steps toward denuclearization.
The window for a solution is closing. It is only a matter of time before North Korea resumes long-range missile and nuclear tests. At that point, China and Russia might agree to tighten sanctions, but their impact on an already locked-down North Korea will be marginal. A preemptive strike on select military sites is too risky. Containment or isolation would give the regime more time to hone its weapons capabilities. Finally, doing nothing would grant Kim Jong Un opportunity to increase threats to U.S. allies, U.S. forces and the U.S. homeland, while also escalating tensions in northeast Asia.
That leaves diplomatic engagement as the only option. And it would be better to reach out to North Korea now, before North Korea attempts another nuclear test that it can use to negotiate from a position of strength.
What would it take to draw North Korea out of its shell? First, the United States should work closely with South Korea and Japan, two allies that are much more vulnerable to North Korea’s short-range missile threats. Though Tokyo may be a tough sell, South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who has met Kim three times, will likely support one final push for diplomatic engagement before he leaves office this year, following South Korea’s presidential election in March.
Second, President Biden could write a personal note to Kim indicating a desire to de-escalate tensions and improve relations. Doing so would not be a promise to return to the high-stakes summitry of the Trump era, which Biden has openly rejected. Rather, it would indicate to Kim that Biden sees him as a formidable leader and possibly soften his stance. This kind of personal approach has been effective with Kim in the past.
Third, in conjunction with global partners, the United States can formally offer medical supplies and covid-19 vaccines as a good-will gesture. The Biden administration has already said these might be offered independent of the denuclearization process. Other low-cost measures that do not compromise regional security, such as ending the travel ban as soon as pandemic conditions permit, may also be in order to better understand conditions in North Korea.
Perhaps the most difficult hurdle for the Biden administration politically is granting North Korea the possibility of limited sanctions relief — enough to permit development assistance and capacity-building projects — in exchange for reciprocal measures toward freezing nuclear and missile production. This would be an interim step toward denuclearization. Though this risks the appearance of capitulation, the United States is in a far more secure position than North Korea to offer such concessions, and the Biden administration could snap back sanctions if Pyongyang conducted further missile or nuclear tests.
The world is facing multiple crises that no doubt require attention and resources. But the United States and the international community cannot afford to neglect North Korea’s provocations. They should find a way to reengage now — because time, unfortunately, is on North Korea’s side.
The Washington Post · by Andrew Yeo Yesterday at 10:56 a.m. EST · February 4, 2022


14. Kim returns with threats; & What is to be done?

My 10 minute interview this week with John Batchelor as he asked me about information and influence activities against the Kim family regime based on my recent article. https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/01/how-to-get-north-korea-to-negotiate-over-its-nuclear-weapons-and-missiles/

Interview a this link:

Kim returns with threats; & What is to be done? David Maxwell @DavidMaxwell161 @FDD, retired U.S. Army Special Forces colonel and Fellow at the Institute of Corean American Studies.


 Embed
Photo: The scene of the deportation of the detainee of the Anti-People's Special Committee

Kim returns with threats; & What is to be done? David Maxwell @DavidMaxwell161 @FDD, retired U.S. Army Special Forces colonel and Fellow at the Institute of Corean American Studies. 






V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Personal Email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
Web Site: www.fdd.org
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
VIDEO "WHEREBY" Link: https://whereby.com/david-maxwell
Subscribe to FDD’s new podcastForeign Podicy
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

V/R
David Maxwell
Senior Fellow
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Phone: 202-573-8647
Personal Email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com
Web Site: www.fdd.org
Twitter: @davidmaxwell161
Subscribe to FDD’s new podcastForeign Podicy
FDD is a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."
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