Daily updates on the emerging novel coronavirus from the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.
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January 30, 2020 - Morning Update
EPI UPDATES According to China'sNational Health Commission there are 7,711 confirmed cases of 2019-nCoV in China, with 170 deaths, 170 discharges, 12,167 suspected cases, and 81,947 contacts currently under medical observation. China CDC is reporting cases in 31 of the 33 national provinces. Outside of China, there are 68 confirmed cases in 17 countries. WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus tweeted that local human to human transmission of the virus has been reported in Vietnam, Japan, and Germany.
India'sMinistry of Health and Family Welfare confirmed the country’s first case, a student in Kerala who had recently returned from studying in Wuhan. The Philippinesconfirmed its first case, a 38-year-old woman who recently traveled to Wuhan.
US TASK FORCE President Trump is convening a task force on the US government’s response to nCoV. “The Task Force is led by Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar, and is coordinated through the National Security Council. It is composed of subject matter experts from the White House and several United States Government agencies, and it includes some of the Nation’s foremost experts on infectious diseases.” A list of Task Force members is available on the White House website.
EARLY TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS A paper published yesterday in the New England Journal of Medicine describes early features of the epidemic. The authors report that 56% of the first 425 confirmed patients were male with a median age of 59. They estimate the mean incubation period to be 5.2 days with a mean serial interval of 7.5 days, and a basic reproductive number of 2.2. The authors conclude that human to human transmission was evident since mid-December.
GENOMIC CHARACTERISATION A paper published on January 30 in the Lancet found that although the 2019-nCoV is closely related to bat-derived severe acute respiratory syndrome-like coronaviruses, the virus is genetically distinct. Of note, the authors found that the receptor binding domain structure of 2019-nCoV is similar to that of SARS-CoV.
TRAVEL RESTRICTIONS AND SCREENINGLufthansa, Lion Air group, and Cathay Pacific join British Airways in suspending flights to and from China. Approximately 16 airlines have suspended or reduced flights to China amid concerns about the outbreak. The airlines cite decreased demand and concerns over increased transmission as reasons for limiting flights.
Papua New Guinea implemented a "refusal of entry" for travelers who have been to China in the last 14 days "until they are medically cleared." Russia has also expanded its border closure from a limited section to the entire border shared with China.
PANDEMIC SUPPLY CHAIN NETWORK The new Pandemic Supply Chain Network, a collaboration between the World Health Organization and the World Economic Forum, has begun convening calls with 350 private sector organizations and 10 multilateral organizations to assess the market capacity and risk to global personal protection equipment production. The results of the assessment are expected Feb. 5.
CHINA MASK GUIDANCE The China CDC published guidance for the public on wearing masks to protect against 2019-nCoV. The guidance includes information on specific types of masks and their performance characteristics as well as recommendations for their use in healthcare and public settings.
EMERGENCY COMMITTEE RECONVENES The Emergency Committee will reconvene today to advise Dr. Tedros on whether the ongoing outbreak constitutes a Public Health Emergency of International Concern.