Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners

Quotes of the Day:

Political war remains a fact of international life. Among the three great categories of war-nuclear, conventional, and political-only political war lies outside the realm of East-West negotiation. And yet of all types, it is the one most closely linked to the political visions at the root of conflict. Men are not hostile, it is often noted, because they are armed; they are armed because they are engaged in hostility. What use is it for the opponents in the present drama to pursue nuclear and conventional disarmament while they ignore the continued presence and deployment of political warfare capabilities? And what are the prospects for meaningful reduction n overall tension when the most threatening form of hostility remains undisclosed, unrestrained, and unacknowledged by those who practice it most aggressively?

- Paul Smith, On Political War, 1991

"I do not fear death. I have been dead for billions and billions before I was born, and had not suffered the slightest inconvenience from it."

- Mark Twain

Characteristics of the American Way of War (8 of 13)

8. Large-scale. As a superpower, the United States tends to excel at enterprises conducted on a scale that matches its total assets. Professor Huntington believes, at least he believed in 1985, that "the United States is a big country, and we should fight wars in a big way." More controversially, he claimed that "[b]igness not brains is our advantage, and we should exploit it." No doubt those words will irritate and anger many readers. However, there is an important self-awareness in Huntington's point. As a large rich country, for the better part of 200 years the United States has waged its many wars, regular and irregular, domestic and foreign, as one would expect of a society that is amply endowed materially. Poor societies are obliged to wage war frugally. They have no choice other than to attempt to fight smarter than their rich enemies. The United States has been blessed with wealth in all its forms. Inevitably, the armed forces, once mobilized and equipped, have fought a rich person's war. They could hardly do otherwise. From the time of the Civil War, foreign observers have been astonished by the material generosity with which American troops have been supplied and equipped. Strategic necessity is the mother of military invention, and since the 1860s, at least, Americans have had little need to invent clever work-arounds for material lack. It is not self-evident that the United States is able to wage war in a materially minimalist fashion, any more than that today's volunteer soldiers and their families would tolerate campaign conditions marked by what would be regarded as unnecessary discomfort. The American Army at war is American society at war. This is not so much a problem as a condition.

True, Americans have at times waged modern war on a shoestring, and the experience was predictably unhappy. Anyone wondering how Americans perform when the material balance is not weighted heavily in their favor will not be short of historical evidence. They could do worse than study the campaign on Guadalcanal in the second half of 1942, or, for another grim classic, the fate of Task Force Smith in Korea in July 1950. These, however, were exceptions to the rule that because the United States was the world's greatest industrial nation, it waged its industrial-age warfare on a scale that others could not hope to match. But because the American way of war traditionally had to be unleashed only after a surge of emergency and time-consuming mobilization, the cost was apt to be heavy for the soldiers at the sharp end. To "come as you are with what you have got" is ever a bloody and extraordinarily dangerous duty. The implications of America's excellence in the conduct of warfare on the large scale for its ability to combat irregular enemies are mixed, but on balance probably have been negative. Warfare against a lightly armed irregular foe short of numbers is not simply a somewhat scaled-down version of warfare as usual. The American strategic cultural trait of "bigness," of functioning with large footprints, is apt to be counterproductive. In COIN, the more evident the American presence and influence, the less legitimate and competent the local authorities must appear to be. The larger the American military contribution, particularly if its soldiers look hostile and behave as if they are in bandit country, the more the U.S. presence will resemble an occupation.78 American culture, in all senses of the term, is a powerful force, particularly in its hold on Americans. Large numbers of Americans, being Americans, acting like Americans, and indeed living in cultural and social facsimiles of America in an alien society, amount to a challenge, or insult, to local mores. This is a necessary consequence of the injection of large numbers of Americans, with all the logistics deemed essential to the American way of life that the volunteer soldier expects, into the midst of an alien cultural milieu. Of course, Americans can reduce their visibility by retreating into fortified bunkers or by deploying away from heavily populated areas. To behave thus, however, is to operate in a manner counterproductive for irregular warfare, where the battlefield, as we keep insisting, is the people.

- Colin Gray, 2006

1. N. Korea fires 2 short-range ballistic missiles toward East Sea: S. Korean military

2. USINDOPACOM Statement on DPRK Missile Launches

3. U.S. forced to intensify joint military drills in response to N. Korean provocations: State Dept.

4. North Korea Fires Two Short-Range Ballistic Missiles

5. US, S.Korea kick off largest drills in five years

6. Yoon-Kishida summit to signal 'normalization' of relations

7. South Korea Eyeing Larger Aircraft Carrier for its CVX Program

8. UN Highlights Abuses Against Women and Girls in North Korea

9. Monitoring missile launches a ‘complex beast,’ says Space Force commander in South Korea

10. What crime put away most inmates at N. Korean forced labor camps last year?

11. Tensions rise on Korean Peninsula during largest Korea-US drill in years

12. Understanding the latest efforts to normalize relations between Japan and South Korea

13. South Korea’s supersized aircraft carrier folly

1. N. Korea fires 2 short-range ballistic missiles toward East Sea: S. Korean military

The regime is on a roll. I was asked to provide some background on the exercises and north KOrean provocations. So I thought I would share this.

First, some quick background to understand my perspective.

It is important to have a common understanding of the assumptions about nature, objectives, and strategy of the Kim family regime (which is a mafia-like crime family cult that seeks to dominate the entire Korean peninsula under the rule of the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State. Kim Jong Un is executing a three fold long term strategy (three lines of effort) of political warfare, blackmail diplomacy, and the development of advanced warfighting capabilities to support the first two lines of effort, maintain deterrence, and ultimately have the ability to use force to unify the peninsula.

Political Warfare is the use of all elements of national power to achieve objectives short of war: The regime conducts active subversion of South korea to undermine government legitimacy and foment political chaos and develop support for the regime in the South. It also conducts active subversion to drive a wedge in the ROK/US alliance with the intent to remove US troops from the South so that the north will be able to dominate the South through coercion or use of force. Blackmail diplomacy is the use of increased tensions, threats, and provocations to gain political and economic concessions. Advanced warfighting capabilities are simultaneously developed through testing and also used as provocations to support blackmail diplomacy.

While the regime's rhetoric may seem over the top at the beginning of this recent exercise, the regime has a long history of increasing tensions, using colorful and inflammatory rhetoric (how many times has it said it would" turn Seoul into a sea of fire?"), and conducting provocations.

The obvious assessment is that the regime is concerned with its security and views the exercises as preparation for an attack. However, Kim Jong Un knows full well that these are defensive exercises and the ROK/US alliance does not have the intention of launching an invasion of the north. It should be emphasized that the north is conducting its annual Winter Training Cycle which brings its forces to the highest state of readiness in March which is the optimal attack time since the ground is still hard and the rice paddies are not flooded making the terrain suitable for armored and mechanized movement. This is why for decades we conducted Team Spirit at this time (last conducted in 1993 - I participated in the last Team Spirit) which was the largest military exercise in the free world for decades. The purpose was to reinforce the peninsula with US forces, mobilize ROK forces, and conduct training to bring the ROK/US Combined Forces Command to a state of readiness to be able to deter a north Korean attack and defend the South should deterrence fail. Second, the ROK forces on the DMZ and frontline areas are positioned for defense of the South. The nKPA forces north of the DMZ are postured for offensive operations not defense. This is rarely noted in the media.

We should also keep in mind the question that Dr. Jung Pak often asked at conferences before she became the DASS for East Asia Pacific and the Deputy Special Representative for north Korea. She would ask who does Kim fear more- the ROK/US Combined Forces Command or the Korean people living in the north? The answer is the Korean people in the north, especially when armed with information.

According to escapees, one of the largest failures of the Kim family regime has been Kim Jong Un's failure to successfully "play" Presidents Moon and Trump and obtain sanctions relief. Kim only has a few plays in the seven decades old regime playbook and it is simply to conduct blackmail diplomacy. One of the explanations of the spate of provocations since the failure at the Hanoi meeting in 2019 may be that Kim is trying to have sanctions lifted. Obviously Kim could have sanctions lifted immediately if he chose to fully comply with UN Security Council Resolutions and US law. But of course he cannot and will not do that. So he conducts provocations because he really has no other options.

So why is Kim doing what he is doing? First, for all of the reasons outlined above but also this: he needs to create the threat from the South and the US in order to justify the sacrifices and suffering of the Koran people in the north as he prioritizes the development of nuclear weapons and missiles (and support to the regime elite) over the welfare of the Korean people. Kim needs the tension created by the exercises. He hypocritically says that the US is preparing for an invasion when in truth it is he who is doing so.

I am concerned about the situation inside north Korea. The COVID "paradox" has created problems for the regime. The paradox is the regime's fear of COVID has caused it to take extreme measures to try to prevent an outbreak. It is likely there have been significant outbreaks that the regime covers up. The paradox is that COVID also provided Kim the opportunity to further crack down on the Korean people in the north by imposing draconian population and resources control measures, closing the borders to legal trade and smuggling, market restrictions, crackdowns on the use of foreign currency, movement, and information. The conditions could become far worse than the Arduous March of the famine of 1994-1996. The difference is that in 1997 the Sunshine Policy "saved" the regime by transferring billions of dollars and the Korean people in the north developed markets that have been responsible for the resilience of the people for the past 2+ decades. The 400+ markets that have been recognized and the rise of the dongju or monied class has become a threat to the regime and Kim has used COVID to try to crush these developments. The problem now is that there is no safety valve or relief mechanism for either the regime or the people. So, Kim must use the exercises to create the external threat he needs to be able to justify his actions and keep tight control over the population in the north.

Two points. One, I have seen no open source reporting of any preparation for war by the regime/nKPA. Second, Kim Jong Un is not stupid. He knows (as his father and grandfather knew) that he cannot defeat the South if there is a strong ROK/US alliance. As long as there is US support for the ROK Kim will be deterred (though as Sir Lawrence Freedman says, "deterrence works, until it doesn't" - at some point Kim may believe he has no other option to survive other than execute his campaign plan to unify the peninsula by force). But Kim is unlikely to attack into strength because he understands what the ROK/US alliance can (and will) do.

The deployment of strategic assets is a threat to the regime because. It is an action that backs up the words of both the ROK Minister of Defense and the US Secretary of Defense. Both have said should Kim Jong Un employ weapons of mass destruction, the regime will cease to exist. The strategic assets can contribute to making that happen. These send a message to support deterrence. But they are a double edged sword because Kim's Propaganda and Agitation Department exploits their deployment to emphasize the threat from the South and the US to justify the people's sacrifices and suffering. However, if we did not deploy strategic assets the PAD would use some other excuse for its domestic "justification propaganda." But the bottom line is that strategic assets are a visible demonstration of the ability to end the regime if Kim Jong Un decides to use WMD or attack South Korea.

Some may argue that if we just halt exercises and do not threaten Kim Jong Un then he will cease provocations. There are two issues with this. First, as I said, the regime will create the perception of threat to justify its actions. Simply the presence of US troops is enough to justify the north's threat perception. And the logical progression of halting exercises leads to the withdrawal of US troops because if US troops cannot train on the peninsula they cannot remain. In 2018 the previous administration cancelled, postponed, and scaled back exercises and there was no reciprocity. Combined with COVID this has led to a decline in readiness. This is why it is important to resume exercises at the highest level. In addition, training is perishable. The troops at all levels must conduct continuous training in order to sustain readiness. Think of the troops as world class athletes. Athletes must continue training in order to be ready to compete in the championships. For the troops the championship game is the north's attack on the South and unfortunately, we do not know when that will happen.

(3rd LD) N. Korea fires 2 short-range ballistic missiles toward East Sea: S. Korean military | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 송상호 · March 14, 2023

(ATTN: UPDATES with U.S. military's response in paras 7-8; TRIMS)

SEOUL, March 14 (Yonhap) -- North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) toward the East Sea on Tuesday, Seoul's military said, a day after South Korea and the United States kicked off a regular military exercise.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said it detected the launch from the Jangyon area in South Hwanghae Province between 7:41 a.m. and 7:51 a.m., and they flew some 620 kilometers.

The intelligence authorities of South Korea and the United States are conducting a comprehensive analysis of the specifics of the missiles, according to the JCS.

"We strongly condemn the North's series of ballistic missile launches as an act of significant provocation that harms peace and stability not only on the Korean Peninsula, but also in the international community, and a clear violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions," the JCS said in a text message sent to reporters.

It also urged the North to immediately stop such launches.

"While normally conducting the combined exercise under the firm combined defense posture, our military will track and monitor North Korean movements to see if there is a possibility of additional provocations," the JCS said.

The U.S. Indo-Pacific Command said that the North's missile launches highlight the "destabilizing" impact of the North's "unlawful" weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile programs.

"The U.S. commitments to the defense of the Republic of Korea and Japan remain ironclad," the command said in a press release, referring to South Korea by its official name.

The latest launch came after the North fired what it claimed to be two "strategic cruise missiles" from a submarine Sunday and conducted a "fire assault drill" three days earlier.

On Monday, Seoul and Washington began their 11-day Freedom Shield exercise, which is to proceed with the concurrent field training exercise, called the Warrior Shield.

Pyongyang has decried the exercises as a rehearsal for a war of aggression against it and threatened to take "overwhelming" action against military activities by the allies.

Its hardening rhetoric has stoked concerns that the reclusive regime could continue to ratchet up tensions with more powerful provocations, such as the launch of a solid-propellant intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and a nuclear test.

2. USINDOPACOM Statement on DPRK Missile Launches

NEWS | March 13, 2023

https://www.pacom.mil/Media/News/News-Article-View/Article/3328028/usindopacom-statement-on-dprk-missile-launches/#:~:text=While%20we%20have%20assessed%20that,WMD%20and%20ballistic%20missile%20programs.

USINDOPACOM Statement on DPRK Missile Launches

U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Public Affairs

We are aware of the ballistic missile launches and are consulting closely with our allies and partners. While we have assessed that this event does not pose an immediate threat to U.S. personnel or territory, or to our allies, the missile launches, and the recent cruise launches, highlight the destabilizing impact of the DPRK’s unlawful WMD and ballistic missile programs. The U.S. commitments to the defense of the Republic of Korea and Japan remain ironclad.

3. U.S. forced to intensify joint military drills in response to N. Korean provocations: State Dept.

We have been waiting for a nuclear test for more than a year. I guess it is still only a matter of time.

I recommend the spokesman consider a slightly different articulation because this implies if the regime halts its provocations we might consider halting our exercises. I recommend he say that as long as the existential threat to South Korea exists from the regime the combined ROK and US militaries must sustain readiness through continuous training. We are not being forced to train because of north Korean provocations. Training is vital to the readiness of military forces and if training declines, readiness, declines and deterrence declines, leaving the ROK vulnerable. We are not going to ahlat training if the regime halts provocations. But we are not conducting training because of provocations.

(LEAD) U.S. forced to intensify joint military drills in response to N. Korean provocations: State Dept. | Yonhap News Agency

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · March 14, 2023

(ATTN: UPDATES with remarks from National Security Advisor Sullivan in paras 10-13)

By Byun Duk-kun

WASHINGTON, March 13 (Yonhap) -- The United States is left with no other choice but to enhance its joint defense capabilities with South Korea as North Korea continues to make provocations that threaten its ally, as well as U.S. troops stationed there, a state department spokesperson said Monday.

Ned Price made the remarks after North Korea fired what it called "strategic cruise missiles" from a submarine over the weekend.

"We are aware of the DPRK's submarine launched cruise missile tests. As we have said in the context of similar actions, these only serve to heighten tensions in the region," the department press secretary told a daily press briefing.

DPRK stands for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, North Korea's official name.

State Department Press Secretary Ned Price is seen speaking during a daily press briefing at the department in Washington on March 13, 2023 in this captured image. (Yonhap)

The North's latest missile provocation came as South Korea and the United States kicked off a large-scale joint military exercise, Freedom Shield, against which Pyongyang earlier said it will take "overwhelming actions."

North Korea fired an unprecedented 69 ballistic missiles last year, while periodically accusing joint military drills of the allies of forcing it to take such actions.

Price dismissed the argument, insisting that North Korean provocations are forcing the U.S. and its allies to intensify their military drills instead.

"Unfortunately, the DPRK has put us in a position to have to reinforce, in tangible ways, the security commitment that we have," he said.

"They have made the security environment in Northeast Asia and the broader Indo-Pacific region all the more dangerous, all the more threatening to our deployed troops, to Americans in the region and, of course, to our key allies in ROK," he added, referring to South Korea by its official name, the Republic of Korea.

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said North Korean provocations will not prevent the U.S. from maintaining peace on the Korean Peninsula.

"We are not going to let any steps North Korea takes deter us or constrain us from the actions that we feel are necessary to safeguard stability on the Korean Peninsula," he told reporter on board Air Force One, en route to San Diego where President Joe Biden is scheduled to meet with his Australian and British counterparts.

Sullivan said the U.S. is still studying the meaning of the latest North Korean missile launch in terms of their capabilities, noting the North first tested a submarine launched missile capability in 2016.

"They have been refining it. They have been trying different iterations of it," he said when asked if the launch marked a new capability.

Price insisted North Korean provocations force the U.S. to "continually" reaffirm its security commitment to its ally.

"We would much rather be engaging in dialogue and diplomacy, and advance in real ways the vision of the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula," he told the press briefing.

The department spokesperson noted an additional nuclear test by North Korea would constitute a "dangerous provocation" that would require a concerted action by the United Nations Security Council.

"We have said for a number of months now that the DPRK has finalized all of the steps that it would need to take to conduct what would be its seven nuclear test. A seven nuclear test would be a dangerous provocation that would itself constitute a significant threat to peace and security in the region," he said.

"The entire world would need to respond in a case like that. Countries on the Security Council, especially the permanent five, we would expect to see, hope to see I should say, a concerted action in response to such a destabilizing event," added Price.

Youtube

https://youtu.be/xX6D_fk3RFI

bdk@yna.co.kr

(END)

en.yna.co.kr · by 변덕근 · March 14, 2023

4. North Korea Fires Two Short-Range Ballistic Missiles

North Korea Fires Two Short-Range Ballistic Missiles

Launches follow a pattern of weapons tests in response to military drills by U.S. and South Korea

https://www.wsj.com/articles/north-korea-fires-two-short-range-ballistic-missiles-15bf0c0a?page=1

By Jiyoung SohnFollow

March 13, 2023 11:01 pm ET

SEOUL—North Korea launched two short-range ballistic missiles, following its playbook of using weapons tests to keep pressure on the U.S. and South Korea as the two countries conduct joint military drills.

The missiles were fired around 7:40 a.m. on Tuesday from North Korea’s western coastal province of South Hwanghae and traveled about 385 miles in 10 minutes before landing in waters near the east coast, South Korea’s Defense Ministry said.

North Korea’s continued ballistic missile launches threaten the peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula and the international community and are a blatant violation of a United Nations Security Council resolution, Seoul’s Defense Ministry said. South Korea’s military will continue its joint military exercises with the U.S. as planned, and will be prepared to respond to any type of provocation by the North with a sweeping response, the ministry said.

The latest launch comes after North Korea said it fired two cruise missiles from a submarine on Sunday. White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said Monday that the U.S. was studying the submarine-launched missile test—a capability that Pyongyang has been refining since 2016—and what it means in terms of North Korea’s capabilities.

“We’re not going to let any steps North Korea take deter us or constrain us from the actions that we feel are necessary to safeguard stability on the Korean Peninsula,” Mr. Sullivan said.

Military tensions on the Korean Peninsula have been rising. North Korea conducted a record number of missile tests last year, and has been ramping them up again this year in response to military drills by the U.S. and South Korea. Pyongyang describes the drills as preparations for an invasion and says its tests are necessary as a deterrent.

Why Kim Jong Un’s Daughter Is All Over North Korean Media

US, S.Korea kick off largest drills in five years

thaipbsworld.com

South Korea and the United States kicked off their largest joint military exercises in five years on Monday, after nuclear-armed Pyongyang warned such drills could be seen as a “declaration of war”.

Washington and Seoul have ramped up defence cooperation in the face of growing threats from the North, which has conducted a series of banned weapons tests in recent months.

The US-South Korea exercises, called Freedom Shield, are scheduled to run for at least 10 days from Monday and will focus on the “changing security environment” due to North Korea’s redoubled aggression, the allies said.

In a rare move, the Seoul military this month revealed that it and Washington special forces were staging “Teak Knife” military exercises — which involve simulating precision strikes on key facilities in North Korea — ahead of Freedom Shield.

All such exercises infuriate North Korea, which views them as rehearsals for an invasion.

It has said its nuclear weapons and missile programs are for self-defence.

Over the weekend, North Korea fired two “strategic cruise missiles” from a submarine in waters off its east coast, the official KCNA news agency reported Monday.

The agency cited the country’s “invariable stand” to confront a situation in which “the US imperialists and the South Korean puppet forces are getting ever more undisguised in their anti-DPRK military maneuvers”.

“Pyongyang has military capabilities under development it wants to test anyway and likes to use Washington and Seoul’s cooperation as an excuse,” said Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul.

DPRK is the initialism for North Korea’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

In a separate statement, North Korea’s foreign ministry said the United States was “scheming” to call a UN Security Council meeting on human rights in the reclusive communist state, to coincide with the joint maneuvers.

“The DPRK bitterly denounces the US vicious ‘human rights’ racket as the most intensive expression of its hostile policy toward the DPRK and categorically rejects it,” the ministry said, according to KCNA.

Last year, the North declared itself an “irreversible” nuclear power and fired a record-breaking number of missiles, with leader Kim Jong Un last week ordering his military to intensify drills to prepare for a “real war”.

North Korea launches missiles from submarine as U.S.-South Korea drills begin

Shift in position?

Washington has repeatedly restated its “ironclad” commitment to defending South Korea, including using the “full range of its military capabilities, including nuclear”.

South Korea, for its part, is eager to reassure its increasingly nervous public about the US commitment to so-called extended deterrence, in which US military assets, including nuclear weapons, serve to prevent attacks on allies.

Although the official policy of both countries towards the North — that Kim must give up his nukes and return to the table for talks — has not changed, experts said there had been a practical shift.

Washington has “effectively acknowledged that North Korea will never give up its nuclear program”, An Chan-il, a defector turned researcher who runs the World Institute for North Korea Studies, told AFP.

This Freedom Shield training is the first since that happened, meaning it “will be very different — both qualitatively and quantitatively — from previous joint exercises that took place in recent years”, he added.

North Korea, which recently called for an “exponential” increase in weapons production, including tactical nukes, had been widely expected to respond with missile launches and drills of its own — with experts saying more were likely over the course of the US-South Korean exercises.

“North Korea will use the Freedom Shield 2023 Exercise to unify its people and as an excuse to further invest in weapons of mass destruction,” said Chun In-bum, a retired South Korean army general.

“More missile launches with variations in style and scope should be expected with even a nuclear test. More acts of intimidation from North Korea should not come as a surprise.”

But Hong Min of the Korea Institute for National Unification said Pyongyang was not expected to “cross the red line”.

The North is likely to refrain from activities “at which the US and South Korea are forced to counter-strike in response”, he said.

By Claire Lee Agence France-Presse

thaipbsworld.com

6. Yoon-Kishida summit to signal 'normalization' of relations

Some good news. Let's hope the ROK and Japan can maintain forward progress.

Tuesday

March 14, 2023

dictionary + A - A

Yoon-Kishida summit to signal 'normalization' of relations

https://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/2023/03/14/national/diplomacy/Korea-Japan-Yoon-Suk-Yeol/20230314175133060.html

National Security Adviser Kim Sung-han gives a briefing on President Yoon Suk Yeol's two-day visit to Japan later this week at the Yonsan presidential office in central Seoul Tuesday. [NEWS1]

President Yoon Suk Yeol will make a two-day visit to Tokyo from Thursday for a summit with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, signaling the "normalization" of relations, according to his national security adviser Tuesday.

"The two leaders will discuss measures to normalize overall Korea-Japan relations, including the implementation of a solution to the forced labor ruling issue, and exchange views on various issues," National Security Adviser Kim Sung-han said in a press briefing at the Yongsan presidential office.

"There will also be an opportunity to discuss ways to resolve policy barriers hindering economic cooperation and to deepen that cooperation between the two countries."

The visit comes after diplomatic relations between the two countries frayed in recent years over historical disputes related to Japan's 1910-45 colonial rule over Korea, namely the compensation of wartime forced labor victims, and a trade spat.

Yoon will be accompanied by first lady, Kim Keon-hee, in the "working-level visit" on his first trip to Japan since taking office in May 2022, according to the presidential office.

On his first day, Yoon is set to hold a luncheon with Korean compatriots in Tokyo.

Yoon and Kishida will hold a summit meeting later Thursday, followed by dinner.

Kim said that the summit will be an opportunity for the two leaders to "deepen their personal trust and reaffirm their commitment to developing bilateral relations."

Such confidence-building between the two leaders is expected to "have a positive impact on friendship and exchanges between the two countries' people going forward," he added.

Yoon will also meet with Japanese political figures, lawmakers, businesspeople and students during this visit.

On Friday, Yoon will meet with political figures from the Korea-Japan Parliamentarians' Union and the Korea-Japan Cooperation Committee.

He may meet with Aso Taro, vice president of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, and former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, incoming president of the parliamentarians' union.

Yoon may ask the politicians to play an active role in building Korea-Japan relations, according to Kim.

Yoon will promote economic exchanges in a Korea-Japan business roundtable scheduled for Friday lunchtime, expected to be attended by key business leaders from both countries.

Later Friday afternoon, Yoon is scheduled to give a lecture focusing on the future generations of Korea and Japan at Keio University in Tokyo.

Kim, the first lady, is also expected to have a meeting with Japanese first lady Yuko Kishida.

Yoon is expected to return to Seoul late Friday afternoon.

National Security Adviser Kim said that there could be adjustments to the schedule as the two sides continue their last-minute consultations.

"This visit to Japan signals that Korea-Japan relations, which have been strained thus far, have earnestly entered the normalization stage," said Kim. "The resumption of bilateral summit visits, which have been suspended for 12 years, will be an important milestone in improving Korea-Japan relations, which have been emphasized since the inauguration of the Yoon administration."

Yoon's Japan trip could mark a resumption of shuttle diplomacy between the two countries, which has been suspended for some 12 years.

The last Japanese prime minister to visit Seoul for a bilateral summit was Yoshihiko Noda in October 2011, and President Lee Myung-bak made a return bilateral visit to Tokyo in December 2011.

President Moon Jae-in attended the G20 summit in Osaka in June 2019. However, he did not hold a bilateral summit with then Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

"Leaders of the two countries couldn't meet easily amidst the prolonged strain in Korea-Japan relations, and a vicious cycle of stagnation in bilateral relations continued," said Kim. "President Yoon's visit to Japan will serve as an important opportunity to break this vicious circle and reassess the conditions for full-blown exchanges between the two countries."

Yoon and Kishida previously met during multilateral forums, including in September 2022 in New York during the UN General Assembly and last November in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, during Asean meetings.

The two leaders could discuss a range of issues during their summit, including the forced labor compensation issue, Japan's export restrictions, the status of their intelligence-sharing pact and cooperation on North Korea.

On March 6, the Korean government announced its decision to compensate victims of Japan's wartime forced labor through a public foundation, funded by Korean companies and without set contributions from Japanese companies.

Some victims and civic groups have strongly protested, saying that this plan does not include an apology from the liable Japanese companies, nor direct compensation.

In 2018, the Korean Supreme Court ordered two Japanese companies — Nippon Steel and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries — to individually compensate the victims of forced labor during World War II.

Tokyo maintains that all compensation issues related to Japan's colonial rule over Korea were resolved through the 1965 treaty normalizing relations, and the companies refused to comply.

The Japanese government imposed export restrictions on Korea in the summer of 2019.

In response to Japan's decision to remove Korea from its so-called white list of preferred trading partners in August 2019, Korea nearly terminated the General Security of Military Information Agreement (Gsomia), its military intelligence-sharing pact with Tokyo established in 2016 and renewed annually. Later that year, the Moon Jae-in administration conditionally suspended the decision to terminate Gsomia, technically leaving open the possibility that the pact could be scrapped at any time.

The Korean Industry Ministry announced last week that it will temporarily suspend a dispute settlement process with the World Trade Organization (WTO) to protest Japan's unilateral export controls measures. This was seen as a move to allow room for consultations to remove them to make progress.

The Yoon-Kishida summit could also be an opportunity to discuss strengthening trilateral security cooperation between South Korea, Japan and the United States amid concerns over deterrence against North Korea's nuclear and missile threats.

"We have been dealing with the North Korean nuclear issue within the framework of South Korea-U.S.-Japan security cooperation, and plan to continue to do so in the future," said a high-ranking presidential official Tuesday on trilateral cooperation to deter North Korea.

The official said that Gsomia is currently working well despite the near suspension in the previous administration, but added, "I believe that if South Korea-Japan relations improve, the Gsomia issue in terms of technicalities will be resolved naturally, and that there will be active discussion between South Korea and Japan at the security level in the context of Korea-U.S.-Japan security cooperation."

The official added regarding the trade spat, "Export restrictions, a return to the white list, and the WTO complaint are all intertwined, and we expect that these three issues will be naturally resolved if there is progress in consultations in any one area."

BY SARAH KIM [kim.sarah@joongang.co.kr]

7. South Korea Eyeing Larger Aircraft Carrier for its CVX Program

I thought this initiative had been shelved.

South Korea Eyeing Larger Aircraft Carrier for its CVX Program - Naval News

navalnews.com · by Jamie Chang · March 12, 2023

According to a report by local media SBS News, South Korea’s MoD (Ministry of Defense) has formally responded to an inquiry about CVX from the Member of the National Assembly Sung-ho Jung (Democratic Party), who also serves as a member of the National Defense Committee. In the letter sent to Mr. Jung, MoD has mentioned that it will shortly begin working on preliminary policy research on the feasibility of building 50,000-tonne class aircraft carrier.

This decision from the MoD has been made after carefully reviewing the research from DAPA (Defense Acquisition Program Administration) completed in January this year. In that research, DAPA concluded that developing the naval variant of KF-21 (referred to as KF-21N) is fully achievable with sufficient budget allocation and time invested into development, which accounted for 1.8 trillion KRW (roughly $1.3B) and a long ten years respectively.

KF-21N aircraft scale model on KAI stand at DX Korea 2022

This change of plans is especially important, as MoD turning towards a medium-sized carrier than current design would involve major modifications to aircrafts that are to be operated on the ship once it has been commissioned. As it turns out, it is most likely that MoD will drop the original plan of acquiring sixteen F-35B’s but rather wait for the naval variant of KF-21 보라매 (meaning ‘Falcon’ in English), an indigenous fighter jet currently in a critical testing phase.

It is also worth mentioning that the new medium-sized aircraft carrier will be equipped either with CATOBAR (Catapult Assisted Take-Off But Arrested Recovery) or STOBAR (Short Take-Off But Arrested Recovery) system, as KF-21N would not be able to take off or land vertically. KAI (Korea Aerospace Industries) has not yet released more information about this variant of domestic fighter since DX Korea 2022 however.

As many have pointed out earlier, the total cost of CVX program will only rise as the vessel’s displacement will increase from mere 30,000 tons to more than 50,000 tons. Under last administration, the total cost of CVX program was estimated to be 2.5 trillion KRW (or 2.1 billion USD), with maintenance costing up to 50 billion KRW (45 million USD) each year, but that estimation has already been criticized in the past for being ridiculously cheap for maintaining a ship of that size.

Although the shipbuilder HHI (Hyundai Heavy Industries) and the aircraft manufacturer KAI stays rather optimistic about commissioning CVX and KF-21N by 2023 with minimal increase in total project costs, there still are many technical issues that both companies to overcome as both have no previous experiences in building aircraft carriers or carrier-borne aircrafts.

The MoD will review multiple factors in its preliminary policy research for coming months, while final decision is expected to be made by the end of fiscal year 2023 whether to upscale its future aircraft carrier to a medium-sized one or keep the design as it is now.

navalnews.com · by Jamie Chang · March 12, 2023

8. UN Highlights Abuses Against Women and Girls in North Korea

Yet there are organizations that ignore these facts in the hopes that they can engage with the regime (e.g., Women Cross DMZ)

UN Highlights Abuses Against Women and Girls in North Korea

hrw.org · by Lina Yoon Senior Researcher, Asia Division @linayp @linayp · March 13, 2023

Click to expand Image

A United Nations report on the rights of women and girls in North Korea documents in devastating detail how prolonged Covid-19 border restrictions have pushed an already vulnerable population to the brink.

The report, released last week by the UN special rapporteur on human rights in North Korea, Elizabeth Salmon, describes the disproportionate impact of the restrictions on women and girls, who already have limited access to food, medicines, health care, and livelihoods. It raises concerns about declining economic participation for women due to Covid-19 restrictions and the effect on families’ livelihoods since women in North Korea are the main breadwinners. The report also flags possible increased domestic violence linked to the pandemic and resulting economic pressures.

The special rapporteur highlights continuing widespread discrimination and pervasive and routine violence against women and girls, noting that sexual violence and domestic violence are widespread and normalized. The North Korean government does not treat violence against women as a serious crime, and the stigma and victim-blaming associated with sexual violence and harassment prevent survivors from getting redress.

The special rapporteur notes that North Korean authorities subject women in detention to inhumane conditions that include torture, forced labor, sexual violence, and deprivation of food.

In February, a separate report by the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights also focused on North Korea’s horrendous human rights record, the bleak prospects for criminal accountability for serious rights violations, and the need for “fresh, creative strategies” to address these problems.

Ten years have passed since the UN established the Commission of Inquiry on North Korea, which documented crimes against humanity and other grave abuses.

The UN Human Rights Council sitting in Geneva this month should renew the mandate of the special rapporteur and other UN mechanisms intended to promote justice for victims of North Korean government abuses. The UN General Assembly and Security Council should also consider other steps to hold the government to account, including for failing to protect women and girls from violence and committing such violence with impunity. North Korea’s people have been waiting too long for justice.

9. Monitoring missile launches a ‘complex beast,’ says Space Force commander in South Korea

Monitoring missile launches a ‘complex beast,’ says Space Force commander in South Korea

Stars and Stripes · by David Choi · March 13, 2023

Lt. Col. Joshua McCullion, the commander of U.S. Space Forces Korea, speaks to Stars and Stripes at Camp Humphreys, March 3, 2023. (Christopher Green/Stars and Stripes)

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CAMP HUMPHREYS, South Korea — U.S. Space Forces Korea, just three months old and the newest command in the Space Force, is finding a clear role amid new threats from North Korea, according to its commander.

Early missile detection is an integral part of the U.S. military’s defense of its 28,500 troops stationed on the peninsula, particularly with just 60 miles separating North Korea and Osan Air Base, where U.S. Space Forces Korea, or SPACEFOR-KOR, is headquartered.

Pyongyang continues to reject calls from Seoul and Washington, D.C., to get rid of its nuclear arsenal and end ballistic missile tests. The communist regime under leader Kim Jong Un has test-fired five missiles so far this year and about 75 in 2022, an annual record.

Missile detection is a “top concern” for the command but a “complex beast” to face, SPACEFOR-KOR commander Lt. Col. Joshua McCullion told Stars and Stripes on March 3 at U.S. Forces Korea's headquarters.

McCullion said satellites need time to be adequately positioned to provide as clear an image as possible as proof that North Korea was preparing for a missile launch.

“The more we know, the more we can posture the satellite systems to be ready for focused collection,” he said. “They’re always there, and they’re always watching, but if you focus, put the people in the systems, I can now cut down on the timeline even more. I can get you more fidelity on what’s happening. I can get a warning out quicker.”

Once North Korea fires a missile, Space Force guardians notify U.S. forces and share that information with their South Korean counterparts, who can compare the data with their missile-detection systems.

“If it’s leaving the peninsula, we’re going to call it,” McCullion said.

Lean but formidable

North Korea has demonstrated its ability to jam GPS and satellite communications and “likely intends to deny space-based navigation and communications during conflict,” Army Gen. James Dickinson, the head of U.S. Space Command, told the U.S. House Armed Services Committee on Wednesday.

“We have to have the capabilities to be able to see and characterize what’s going on in the space domain,” he said.

That effort includes standing up SPACEFOR-KOR, and McCullion said he’s gathered most of the data he needs to make the independent field command effective.

“We’re not going to have hundreds of people, especially in Korea,” McCullion said. “We just frankly don’t have the numbers in the Space Force as a whole.”

The Space Force footprint in South Korea will be small compared to other commands, but it may call on U.S. Space Command for guardians and satellites, and on allies like Japan and Australia.

“Space just doesn’t stop in Korea,” McCullion said. “A lot of our satellites can see a third of the globe at any given time.

“We’re still new,” he said, but “lots of cool things (are) coming” in the years to come, like next-generation missile warning capabilities.

Educating the force

One challenge McCullion said he faces is educating units about Space Force capabilities and how it can contribute to their missions.

SPACEFOR-KOR’s core duties — detecting missiles and providing and defending satellite communications and access to navigational tools like GPS — can be broadly explained but are difficult to grasp for units unfamiliar with their work, according to McCullion.

Explaining those capabilities will be a “heavy lift” for the next couple of years, he said, adding that the command has begun training with units in South Korea so they know about Space Force services.

“It’s hard to capture for people the level of detail: what altitude is an aircraft flying at, how fast is a ship moving, what frequencies do they have, how do you hand off from one satellite to another satellite as you transit across large bodies of water,” McCullion said. “It’s all very detailed work that takes an incredible amount of time to collect that data [and] where we didn’t have all those processes established in the past.”

Operations in space need time; it can take months to reposition a satellite to give commanders a clear sense of the battlefield, McCullion said.

“Some people just worry about, ‘Where am I going to stop for gas in the next 15 miles,’” he said. "We’re like, ‘How much gas are you going to need in three months?”

Stars and Stripes · by David Choi · March 13, 2023

10. What crime put away most inmates at N. Korean forced labor camps last year?

Spoiler: "Impure videos."

Excerpts:

Except for the camp in Sariwon, which is a showcase for the international community, the camps reportedly hold between 2,500 and 4,000 prisoners, with the nation’s total prison population at around 40,000 people.

Besides the forced labor camps where people sentenced to “reeducation through labor” are sent, there are plenty of other incarceration facilities, including detention centers, collection centers, labor bridges and political prison camps.

There are reportedly about 200,000 people in political prison camps, though North Korea denies they even exist.

What crime put away most inmates at N. Korean forced labor camps last year?

“In North Korea, when you’re being tried, your lawyer either takes the prosecutor’s side or just sits next to the defendant without saying a word,” a reporting partner told Daily NK

By Mun Dong Hui - 2023.03.14 5:00pm

dailynk.com

Image: pixabay

People convicted of crimes related to watching or distributing illegal visual content accounted for the largest percentage of inmates at North Korean forced labor camps last year, Daily NK has learned.

According to a comprehensive report on the offenses committed by forced labor camp inmates distributed to the country’s bureau of corrections last year, the most common offenses were related to “impure videos,” a reporting partner in North Korea told Daily NK last Thursday, speaking on condition of anonymity.

This suggests that many people were sent to the camps for violating the DPRK Law on Rejecting Reactionary Ideology and Culture, which was implemented by the Supreme People’s Assembly in late 2020.

Article 27 of the law calls for sentences of five to 15 years of correctional labor against people caught watching, listening or possessing “films, recordings, publications, books, songs, drawings or photos from South Korea,” and life sentences of correctional labor or death for individuals who import and distribute such materials.

“In the past, people who were caught distributing foreign videos were unconditionally sent to political prison camps, but nowadays, it they don’t seem able to send all of them to political prison camps because there are so many students and young people [watching and distributing illegal visual content],” the reporting partner said.

The report suggests that despite severe punishments, there has been no reduction in the number of violations of the law, with students and young people partial to foreign culture accounting for many of the violators.

The reporting partner said people caught using mobile phones for smuggling also accounted for many of the prisoners, as well as burglars, murderers and drug criminals.

“Perhaps because of the border closure, the number of inmates in for human trafficking was half that of 2021,” he said.

Forced labor camp inmates reportedly receive no medical or legal assistance.

“In North Korea, when you’re being tried, your lawyer either takes the prosecutor’s side or just sits next to the defendant without saying a word,” said the reporting partner.

“Lawyers here are all mutes during trials. If you’re breathing, you’re sent to forced labor camps, unless you’re a pregnant woman or about to give birth,” he continued, adding, “since you don’t even get help from lawyers in this country, it goes without saying that you don’t receive medical care.”

The reporting partner said violations of human rights continue inside the camps, including beatings.

“Inmates continue to be sexually assaulted and beaten,” he said. “There are many prison camp guards that never share their addresses or family situation with inmates because there are many cases of ex-cons seeking revenge after they are released, perhaps because of the abuses.”

However, the reporting partner added that some ex-inmates visit their former guards to express appreciation about their treatment during incarceration.

North Korea currently operates 11 forced labor camps in Chongo-ri, Kaechon, Kangdong and elsewhere.

Except for the camp in Sariwon, which is a showcase for the international community, the camps reportedly hold between 2,500 and 4,000 prisoners, with the nation’s total prison population at around 40,000 people.

Besides the forced labor camps where people sentenced to “reeducation through labor” are sent, there are plenty of other incarceration facilities, including detention centers, collection centers, labor bridges and political prison camps.

There are reportedly about 200,000 people in political prison camps, though North Korea denies they even exist.

Translated by David Black. Edited by Robert Lauler.

Daily NK works with a network of reporting partners who live inside North Korea. Their identities remain anonymous due to security concerns. More information about Daily NK’s reporting partner network and information gathering activities can be found on our FAQ page here.

Please direct any comments or questions about this article to dailynkenglish@uni-media.net.

Read in Korean

dailynk.com

11. Tensions rise on Korean Peninsula during largest Korea-US drill in years

And it will be large again this summer and next year as well. We are moving toward the new normal where we sustain the highest level of readiness as a matter of routine.

Tensions rise on Korean Peninsula during largest Korea-US drill in years

The Korea Times · March 14, 2023

A TV screen shows a file image of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un during a news program at the Seoul Railway Station, Tuesday. Earlier in the day, Pyongyang test-fired two short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM) toward its eastern waters as Seoul and Washington entered the second day of their Freedom Shield joint exercise. AP-Yonhap

Additional provocations expected ahead of S. Korea-Japan summit

By Lee Hyo-jin

North Korea fired two ballistic missiles toward the East Sea, Tuesday, ratcheting up tensions on the Korean Peninsula as South Korea and the United States entered the second day of their biggest combined military exercise in years.

Pyongyang's latest show of force ― which came just two days after it tested submarine-launched cruise missiles ― is an apparent protest against the 11-day Freedom Shield exercise which it views as a "rehearsal for invasion."

South Korea's Joint Chief of Staff (JCS) said it detected two short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM) launched toward the eastern waters between 7:41 a.m. to 7:51 a.m. from Jangyon county, South Hwanghae Province. The area is merely 10 kilometers away from Baegnyeong Island near the maritime border separating the two Koreas.

The missiles flew some 620 kilometers, which is enough to reach any target in South Korea, including the southern resort island of Jeju. Given the flight distance, the authorities speculated the missile to be a KN-23, which is modeled on Russia's Iskander missile.

"North Korea's repeated missile launches are a serious provocation threatening peace and stability, not only on the Korean peninsula, but also in the international community. We strongly condemn it as a clear violation of the U.N. Security Council resolutions," the JCS said in a written statement, adding that it will continue monitoring additional provocations.

The latest launch was the sixth provocation by the North so far this year.

The U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, for its part, assessed that Tuesday's launches do not pose an immediate threat to its allies, but denounced the North's "unlawful" weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and ballistic missile programs.

"The U.S. commitments to the defense of the Republic of Korea and Japan remain ironclad," it said in a statement. The Republic of Korea (ROK) is the official name of South Korea.

South Korea's top nuclear envoy Kim Gunn held a phone talk with his U.S. counterpart Sung Kim, in which the two officials emphasized that the North "must realize it has nothing to gain from the provocation and that it will have to pay a price for it."

In the last few days, the reclusive regime has been increasing its belligerence in protest against the Freedom Shield operation which began on Monday.

On Sunday morning, Pyongyang fired what it claimed to be two "strategic cruise missiles" from a submarine, after it had fired at least six short-range missiles toward the West Sea on March 9.

Helicopters of the United States Forces Korea (USKF) are stationed at Pocheon, Gyeonggi Province, Tuesday, the second day South Korea and the U.S. kicked off their 11-day computer-simulated Freedom Shield joint exercise.

YonhapMeanwhile, Seoul and Washington proceeded with the second day of their 11-day computer-simulated Freedom Shield (FS 23) as well as several combined field training exercises collectively called Warrior Shield.

Aiming to further enhance South Korea-U.S. military cooperation through air, land, sea, space, cyberspace and special operations, the large-scale drill involves 20 field training events in real war scenarios.

Experts consider it unlikely that tensions on the peninsula will cool down soon. Additional provocations are expected this week ahead of President Yoon Suk Yeol's visit to Tokyo for a summit with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

The breakthrough summit slated for Thursday is expected to serve as momentum in mending years-long frayed ties between the two nations and pave the way for trilateral military cooperation between Seoul, Washington and Tokyo.

"With President Yoon Suk Yeol's scheduled visit to Japan on March 16 and 17, it is possible that North Korea may carry out a major provocation in time for his visit to spoil the bilateral summit between Yoon and Kishida," read a report by Ellen Kim, a deputy director for the Korea Chair at Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

She also anticipated that Pyongyang's new weapons testing could involve an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launched at a normal angle, given its warning in February that the country could turn the Pacific into its "firing range."

The Korea Times · March 14, 2023

12. Understanding the latest efforts to normalize relations between Japan and South Korea

Understanding the latest efforts to normalize relations between Japan and South Korea

NPR · by Ayesha Rascoe · March 12, 2023

NPR's Ayesha Rascoe talks to Sue Mi Terry, Director of the Wilson Center's Asia Program, about new efforts to normalize relations between South Korea and Japan.

AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:

Tensions over a wide range of issues, from forced labor to the systematic rape of girls and women, have served as a serious wedge between Japan and South Korea. But increasing concerns over China's aggressive regional expansion and North Korea's threats could push the two countries with a long history of acrimony closer together. South Korea's president, Yoon Suk Yeol, will be visiting Japan this week. It'll be the first such visit in 12 years.

We're joined by Sue Mi Terry. She directs the Asia Program and the Center for Korean History and Public Policy at the Wilson Center. Thank you so much for joining us.

SUE MI TERRY: Thank you for having me on.

RASCOE: President Yoon's visit is intended to accomplish a number of things like including compensating Koreans who were drafted into forced labor when Korea was occupied by Japan starting in 1910. Can you tell us a bit about that history for people who may not be familiar?

TERRY: Sure. Japan colonized the Korean Peninsula between 1910 and 1945, so there was a huge number of Japanese living in Korea. It was very intense, brutal colonization. And during that period, Japanese forces conscripted nearly 750,000 Korean men as forced laborers and 200,000 women as comfort women. As you said, that's a euphemism for sex slaves used by Imperial Japan from occupied countries - not only from Korea, but other countries too, like China, the Philippines and the Dutch Indies.

From the Korean perspective, they want a sincere apology. They want compensation. And from the Japanese perspective, they said, hey, you know, there is this 1965 normalization agreement between South Korea and Japan, which have settled all postwar claims of compensation. And they also maintain that they have acknowledged and apologized numerous times for various crimes and that, you know, there's, frankly, apology fatigue from the public.

RASCOE: Why is South Korea now saying it will compensate victims of forced labor instead of calling on Japan to do so?

TERRY: Well, they have called on Japan to do so many, many times. And this is what the Koreans really want. But frankly, the Japanese are just not going to do that. So President Yoon is now being very realistic. And when you consider the age of labor victims, they're in their 90s, and among the 15 plaintiffs who won damage against the Japanese firms in 2018, only three are currently alive. So from Korean perspective, if they want to improve relationship at all with the Japanese, this is sort of the only solution that the Yoon administration came up with.

RASCOE: But this plan is contentious, right? Because there are some South Koreans who are saying, why is South Korea paying instead of Japan, right?

TERRY: Oh, absolutely. This is very contentious issue. The public does not like it. And there's a very strong anti-Japan sentiment. This is a courageous decision. President Yoon sought a solution, and he feels that this is the only solution for Korea and Japan to improve their relationship.

RASCOE: Both countries face nuclear threats from North Korea and increasingly confrontational China. But why is the South Korean government so intent on improving relations with Japan right now?

TERRY: Well, they're the two most important allies for the United States, right? They are two mature democracies. They should be working together. As you mentioned, they face North Korean threat. Last year, North Korea tested some 100 missiles. They're on the verge of conducting a seventh nuclear test. There's also the China factor. The regional environment is ripe for the countries to improve relationship.

You know, in Korea-Japan relationship, it has not always been bad. Like, there were times in the past when things were better. So, for example, in late 1990s, the Korea-Japan relationship was in a better state. They co-hosted World Cup together in 2002. So again, right now, when you look at the political environment, just the threats they're facing, it's the right thing to do.

And from the U.S. perspective, of course we welcome this announcement because nothing's been more frustrating for the U.S. government than these two important allies of the United States not working together.

RASCOE: Do you think that these proposed reparations could be a new phase in Japan-South Korea relations?

TERRY: I do. There's - already they are taking steps to improve the relationship - Japan lifting export controls. They are normalizing intelligence sharing. Then they will be meeting face-to-face. The only real challenge here is the Korean public. President Yoon has to get the buy-in from the Korean public. At least President Yoon has four more years. So I do hope that Korea-Japan relationship will improve.

RASCOE: That's the Wilson Center's Sue Mi Terry. Thank you so much for joining us.

TERRY: Thank you so much for having me.

NPR · by Ayesha Rascoe · March 12, 2023

13. South Korea’s supersized aircraft carrier folly

I think carriers make more sense for South Korea than nuclear powered submarines.

South Korea’s supersized aircraft carrier folly

Seoul upsizes its CVX carrier program in a flex more about techno-nationalism than sound military strategy

asiatimes.com · by Gabriel Honrada · March 14, 2023

South Korea has just upsized its aircraft carrier ambitions from a 30,000 to a 50,000-ton vessel, a plan critics say makes little economic or strategic sense in sight of adversaries’ hypersonic and other carrier-killer missile capabilities.

Naval News reported that South Korea’s Ministry of Defense (MOD) will begin preliminary policy research on building the CVX carrier following other research that showed the feasibility of developing a naval version of its indigenous KF-21 4.5 generation fighter, known as the KF-21N.

The fighter jet, projected to cost US$1.3 billion per aircraft, would conceivably be launched from the CVX’s decks.

Naval News reports that South Korea will likely drop its initial 30,000-ton CVX design with 16 F-35B fighters and instead go for a medium-sized 50,000-ton design while waiting for the KF-21N, which will reportedly take a decade to develop.

The report also mentions that the revised CVX design will feature either a Catapult Assisted Take-Off But Arrested Recovery (CATOBAR) or Short Take-Off But Arrested Recovery (STOBAR) system.

These design changes, Naval News notes, will push up the CVX’s projected price tag of US$1.2 billion, with a maintenance cost of US$45 million a year, although critics have already suggested the maintenance figure seems implausibly low.

The MOD will review various factors in its preliminary policy research, according to Naval News, with a final decision expected to be made by the end of fiscal year 2023 on whether to upscale its future aircraft carrier to a medium-sized one or keep the previous design.

While CVX’s main contractor, Hyundai Heavy Industries (HHI), is reportedly optimistic about commissioning the CVX and KF-21N this year with a minimal cost increase, it has never before built carriers or carrier-borne aircraft.

South Korea’s first prototype of its 4.5-generation fighter, officially dubbed KF-21 Boramae, revealed at the Korea Aerospace Industries Co. facility in Sacheon, South Korea. Image: Screengrab / CNN

In 2021, HHI signed a memorandum of understanding with top British defense contractor Babcock International to work together to design and build the new CVX, South Korea’s light aircraft carrier.

Babcock designed and built the Queen Elizabeth-class carriers for the UK and has its operation in Busan, South Korea’s southern harbor city. The company assembles equipment for South Korea’s naval programs, according to a company statement reported by CNN.

The CNN report said Hyundai’s concept design of the ship, first revealed at an exposition in the summer of 2021, had “an uncanny resemblance to the UK’s HMS Queen Elizabeth.”

Should South Korea successfully produce such a carrier, it would join an elite club of Asian countries operating the sophisticated warship.

They include China with its improved ex-Soviet Varyag carriers and indigenously-built models, Japan and its Hyuga and Izumo helicopter carriers, India’s Vikrant and Vikramaditya carriers, Thailand’s sole Chakri Naruebet carrier and Australia’s Canberra-class landing helicopter docks.

Despite the ambition, it is still unclear what role aircraft carriers will play in South Korea’s broad military strategy. The CVX could conceivably provide South Korea with a survivable platform for command and control and retaliation strikes against North Korea, as South Korea’s major military bases and airfields are within range of North Korea’s missile arsenal.

The CVX would also allow South Korea to play a potentially larger role in Indo-Pacific alliances, especially during a contingency in Taiwan or the South China Sea, albeit likely playing an indirect role.

In an October 2022 article for the Washington Quarterly, Oriana Maestro and Sungmin Cho note that South Korea’s CVX program will strengthen its deterrence and defenses against North Korea, which would free up US forces to focus on Taiwan or the South China Sea in a conflict scenario.

At the same time, aircraft carriers are also potent diplomatic tools. Their high visibility and imposing looks make them ideal messaging platforms for the threat of force against adversaries and reassurance for allies and partners.

However, South Korea’s carrier ambitions may be obsolete in the hypersonic age, signifying that prestige, more than military rationale, could be driving the country’s carrier program.

Asia Times reported last month that the advent of hypersonic weapons and stealthy conventional submarines may have made aircraft carriers too vulnerable to use in combat roles, with these multi-billion vessels ending up in limited roles that do not justify their costs.

North Korea has claimed to develop ‘carrier-killer’ hypersonic missiles. Image: 38North / Twitter

Not to be outdone in developing hypersonic weapons, 38North reported in May 2017 that North Korea may have developed a carrier-killer missile, dubbed the KN-17. The source notes that the KN-17 is a Scud variant fitted with small fins on the reentry vehicle, presumably for terminal-stage steering.

However, 38North notes that the KN-17 may have minimal targeting capabilities, due to a lack of a reliable missile guidance system that can survive reentry and hypersonic flight, and that the missile has failed multiple times during tests.

Still, the source mentions that North Korea usually gets its missiles working after some development time and that it chose the Scud as the base for its carrier-killer missile due to its tried-and-tested reliability.

But North Korea is known for peddling in disinformation that exaggerates its military capabilities, meaning its carrier-killer missile claims should be treated skeptically. However, North Korea’s conventional submarine fleet may be a more credible threat than its claimed carrier-killer missiles.

Nuclear Threat Initiative notes, as of October 2022, North Korea maintained one of the world’s largest submarine fleets, with anywhere between 64 to 86 boats. However, the report also mentions that it is doubtful if all of North Korea’s submarines are operational, given their age and the country’s very limited resources.

Nevertheless, The National Interest reported in March 2021 that in 2015 North Korea had practiced sinking a US carrier using fighter aircraft to penetrate the ship’s anti-aircraft defenses and conduct-close range attacks with combined submarine units making torpedo attacks against the target after it had been crippled by air attack.

That drill may be on the mark considering the vulnerability of US carriers to stealthy submarines, which was shown in a well-known 2005 naval exercise wherein a Swedish Gotland-class submarine “sank” the USS Ronald Reagan. Similarly, in 2015, a French Rubis nuclear-powered submarine “sank” the USS Theodore Roosevelt along with several of its escort ships in another exercise.

North Korea has also set a precedent for sinking South Korean warships using submarines, with the 2010 sinking of the ROKNS Cheonan.

While those threats may still be hypothetical, they nonetheless will push South Korea’s CVX into limited roles that likely do not justify its high price tag. Given that, critics of South Korea’s carrier program charge that the project is driven more by techno-nationalism to upstage Japan while showcasing to the world its shipbuilding prowess.

asiatimes.com · by Gabriel Honrada · March 14, 2023

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

De Oppresso Liber,

David Maxwell

Vice President, Center for Asia Pacific Strategy

Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Senior Fellow, Global Peace Foundation

Editor, Small Wars Journal

Twitter: @davidmaxwell161

Phone: 202-573-8647

email: david.maxwell161@gmail.com

If you do not read anything else in the 2017 National Security Strategy read this on page 14:

"A democracy is only as resilient as its people. An informed and engaged citizenry is the fundamental requirement for a free and resilient nation. For generations, our society has protected free press, free speech, and free thought. Today, actors such as Russia are using information tools in an attempt to undermine the legitimacy of democracies. Adversaries target media, political processes, financial networks, and personal data. The American public and private sectors must recognize this and work together to defend our way of life. No external threat can be allowed to shake our shared commitment to our values, undermine our system of government, or divide our Nation."

Access NSS HERE

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